Zero Rss

"Get Long And Buckle Up": Jeff Currie Says Commodity Bull Market Entering Next Leg

The breadth of the commodity advance is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.

Quantix Commodity Index

Diesel crack spreads have surged above $100, copper is trading above $14,000 a ton in London, gold and silver are accelerating amid US Treasury market intervention, and the Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index is surging higher. At the same time, the dollar weakened sharply following Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's intervention this week, providing an additional tailwind to the commodity complex.

According to veteran commodities strategist Jeff Currie, the convergence of tight physical markets, currency debasement, and policy intervention represents the hallmark of a structural commodity bull cycle.

Currie, the former Goldman Sachs commodities chief and now co-chair of Abaxx Markets, wrote in a ten-post thread on X that commodities are the clear winners as physical bottlenecks materialize around the world and Treasury market interventions add to those tailwinds.

Currie began the thread:

Wake up, folks. Commodities are telling you something, and yesterday the Treasury confirmed it.

Scarcity in the physical world. Repression in the financial one. Scarcity pushes prices up. Repression holds yields down. The gap between them is the debasement.

Commodities are the only asset class that wins on both sides. The structural case for commodities has been turbo charged.

Underinvestment, deglobalization and electrification all pushing markets like diesel cracks and copper to new highs.

Meanwhile the chokepoints are increasing, from Hormuz to the Red Sea, the Rhine, the Panama Canal, the Black Sea grain corridor and Russian refining capacity. It is becoming increasingly apparent that not a single one of those is reachable by anything in Washington’s toolkit whether it be caused by war or weather.

The illusion of abundance is likely behind us. I said as much on CNBC this Monday, and I got long gold, silver and agriculture last week.

Wake up, folks. Commodities are telling you something, and yesterday the Treasury confirmed it.

Scarcity in the physical world. Repression in the financial one.

Scarcity pushes prices up. Repression holds yields down. The gap between them is the debasement.

Commodities are the…

— Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ (@CommodMkt) August 20, 2026

Here's a summary of Currie's bull thesis for commodities:

1. Bond market intervention: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubled long-bond buybacks one day after the 30-year yield hit 5.32%, its highest level since 2007, and only two weeks after the quarterly schedule was released. Currie says this is the last lever after a sequence of interventions: SPR draws that reduced inventories below 300 million barrels, dollar backstops for foreign holders in Japan and the Gulf, and FX intervention involving the euro and yen for the first time since 1998. The market reaction was immediate: Gold rose 4% to $4,510, silver gained 5%, and the Quantix Commodity Index reached an all-time high.

I don’t care what you want to call it. A sovereign that has to buy its own bonds to set the price has already conceded that the market won't.

Yesterday Scott Bessent doubled long-bond buybacks, two weeks after publishing the quarterly schedule and one day after the 30-year hit…

— Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ (@CommodMkt) August 20, 2026

2. Stop watching Brent and WTI: The economy runs on gasoline and diesel. That consumption-weighted basket is around $165 versus $85 WTI. Inflation breakevens and the bond market are reading the wrong screen. Watch the next three CPI prints.

Stop looking at crude. Nobody consumes it but refineries.

The economy runs on gasoline and diesel, and that consumption weighted basket costs $165 against $85 WTI.

Breakevens are being priced off the one barrel nobody consumes. The bond market is reading inflation off the wrong…

— Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ (@CommodMkt) August 20, 2026

Related:

• Jeff Currie: Forget $91 Brent, The Real Crisis Is $170 Diesel

3. It's all about the crack spread: Diesel cracks settled above $100 per barrel for the first time ever, reaching $102.20. That is four to six times the normal range, with records set in five of the last six sessions. The cause is a refining shortage, with global runs down around 5 million barrels per day because of Ukrainian strikes on Russian plants, Iranian attacks on Middle Eastern facilities, and chronic underinvestment. Crude can drift while refined products print records.

The diesel crack is the tell.

It settled above $100 a barrel this week for the first time in history, reaching $102.20. That is four to six times its normal range, with records hit in five of the last six sessions.

What lies behind it? A refining shortage. Global runs are down…

— Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ (@CommodMkt) August 20, 2026

4. Treasury supply problem: Foreign holdings fell in June, led by Japan, China, and the UK. The July deficit reached $432 billion, interest costs hit $1.1 trillion, and debt is approaching $40 trillion, while hyperscaler AI-capex issuance is competing for the same pool of savings. The marginal buyer is waiting for higher yields. Yesterday's buyback represents a managed, failing auction.

The Treasury market has a problem: it cannot comfortably clear its own supply. And scarcity only exacerbates the problem.

Foreign holdings fell in June, led by Japan, China and the UK. Against that, you can add a July deficit of $432 billion, interest costs that have surged to…

— Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ (@CommodMkt) August 20, 2026

5. Broken feedback loop: Normally, a commodity spike forces yields higher, followed by demand destruction and self-correction. Repression has cut the brake line. Scarcity feeds inflation, repression prevents the response, and the absence of a response amplifies the scarcity bid.

Repression cuts the brake line.

Normally when such a situation occurs, the bond market disciplines a commodity spike. We are familiar with the cycle: yields rise, demand slows, the spike self-corrects.

But not this time.

The cycle has broken down: scarcity feeds inflation,…

— Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ (@CommodMkt) August 20, 2026

6. Diesel underpins everything: "Every other commodity is dirt plus diesel." Containers, tractors, locomotives, mine trucks, and fertilizer all depend on diesel. The energy input sets the floor for metals, grains, and other commodities. This explains why the QCI can reach an all-time high while crude remains $30 below its peak. Corn is already up 10% on the week. Pass-through into trucking, food, and producer prices is just beginning.

Every other commodity is dirt plus diesel.

Diesel is the cost base of everything. Every container, every tractor, every locomotive, every
mine truck - you get the idea.

The energy input sets the price floor for metals, grains and fertiliser, which is how QCI prints an all-time…

— Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ (@CommodMkt) August 20, 2026

7. Refining problem: There are too many crude barrels and not enough refining capacity. The possible resolution paths include demand destruction through high product prices, crude rebalancing as the current glut remains partly MoU-related, or a recovery in refining activity. If runs recover and refiners bid for the missing 5 million barrels per day of feedstock, the shortage will migrate upstream, causing crude to rally as cracks compress. The net cost to consumers stays high either way. There is no SPR for diesel or gasoline. Bears have been promising supply for more than two years, while the petroleum total-return index has doubled and retail prices remain near all-time highs.

There is no clean bearish resolution.

The market is telling you there are too many barrels of crude and not enough refining capacity.

Either demand will be destroyed through higher product prices, or crude will rebalance (right now we are likely processing a momentary glut from…

— Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ (@CommodMkt) August 20, 2026

8/9. Widening chokepoints and El Niño: Hormuz has been constrained for six months, Russian refining remains under sustained Ukrainian attack, the Red Sea still requires a detour, the Rhine is at a record low amid heat waves, and the Panama Canal's allowable draft has fallen to 47.5 feet. In the Black Sea, all three Novorossiysk terminals are shut, leaving 97% of Azov-Black Sea export capacity offline during peak season. Simultaneously, the USDA cut its US corn-yield estimate to 180.7 bushels per acre and reduced ending stocks by 15%. Food has joined fuel. A record El Niño probability, including NOAA's 81% chance of a very strong event by year-end, adds further stress through drier conditions in Panama, weaker Asian monsoons, and pressure on Brazil's planting window. The system has no redundancy left.

Whether it is weather or war, the issues are widening and deepening. Hormuz has been constrained for six months and counting. Russian refining is regularly under fire from Ukrainian strikes and there’s no sign of that slowing down. The Red Sea is still a detour.

Record European…

— Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ (@CommodMkt) August 20, 2026

10. Conclusion: Scarcity is repricing the numerator, while repression is debasing the denominator. Own what benefits from both: product markets, grains, and freight for the scarcity leg, and gold for the debasement leg. Gold is at $4,510 versus the earlier January high of $5,600 referenced above. The bond market will spend the next six months discovering what product markets already know. Expect more volatility and higher highs across more markets.

Scarcity is repricing the numerator; repression is debasing the denominator. Own what benefits from both.

The commodity complex carries the scarcity leg - products, grains, freight. Gold carries the debasement leg: $4,510 today against a January record of $5,600, and every…

— Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ (@CommodMkt) August 20, 2026

Currie concluded by saying, "Get long and buckle up: the next leg of the ride will see more vol with higher highs across more markets."

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 18:00

US Government Warns: Hackers Attacking Vulnerable Water Systems With AI Help

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

Several U.S. government agencies have said that cyber actors are attempting to hack into devices made by industrial systems company Siemens that are used to monitor water and other critical infrastructure systems.

In an advisory published on Wednesday, the FBI, National Security Agency (NSA), Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), and other U.S. agencies informed “owners and operators of industrial control systems” that there is an “active cyber threat to Siemens S7 Series PLCs,” or programmable logic controllers—an industrial automation system.

Unnamed “threat actors are conducting reconnaissance and capability development against U.S.-based Siemens PLC installations using AI-generated exploitation scripts disguised as legitimate monitoring tools,” the advisory said.

It added that the hackers use services to find PLCs connected to the internet that run what the agencies said is “outdated software” or are “otherwise poorly protected.”

“The U.S. critical infrastructure sectors most targeted by this threat activity include Critical Manufacturing, Energy, Water and Wastewater, Chemical, Food and Agriculture, and Commercial Facilities,” the advisory reads.

“This is not a theoretical risk—it is an active threat.”

The agencies further warned that “exploitation of poorly protected PLCs could lead to disruption of critical industrial processes, safety incidents, downtime or equipment damage, compromise of sensitive data, compliance violations, and cascading impacts across interconnected systems.”

Organizations using Siemens systems are encouraged to apply relevant security updates, isolate devices and systems from the internet where possible, implement strong security protocols, and strengthen monitoring for potential malicious activity, according to the advisory.

“These mitigations are particularly important for owners and operators who work with third-party service providers or system integrators who may have remote access to PLCs, as the asset owners may not realize that their systems are exposed and at risk,” they added.

The advisory did not provide the name of a specific group, country, or actor that may be involved in attempting to hack the Siemens systems. Nor did it name companies that may have been targeted by the threat actors.

The warning ‌comes amid U.S. cyber incidents ⁠targeting local water systems in several states in recent weeks. The FBI said earlier this month that from July 27 to July 30, water and wastewater utility companies in seven states reported security-related incidents.

In July, CISA and other agencies said Iran-linked hackers have targeted PLCs made by Rockwell Automation, Schneider Electric, Siemens, and potentially others.

A cybersecurity risk organization, Encrygma, said on Wednesday that a group linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, known as the CyberAv3ngers, has attacked water systems in the United States and displayed political messaging. CISA linked the group to cyberattacks on PLCs in late 2024.

Since February, the United States and Iran have traded strikes as the Trump administration has demanded that Tehran give up its nuclear program and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway that allows for the transportation of significant amounts of the world’s traded oil.

Other agencies that were involved in the release of Wednesday’s advisory included the Department of Energy and the Environmental Protection Agency.

The NSA, FBI, CISA, and other U.S. agencies have long said that the Chinese regime, Iran, North Korea, and Russia have engaged in malicious cyber activity against U.S. infrastructure networks, collecting intelligence and engaging in cyber espionage.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 17:40

NATO F-16s Blow Up Sea Drone That Threatened Romania's Largest Deep Gas Platform

A wild and highly dangerous intercept incident happened in the Black Sea on Thursday. A pair of Romanian F-16s were dispatched to track and intercept a sea drone in the vicinity the huge Neptun Deep gas platform.

The platform sits 80 miles east of the Romanian Black Sea city of Constanta and is the country's largest natural gas project and its first deep offshore project, with hundreds of people working at the site at any given time.

Omv Petrom

The Wall Street Journal reports that "Romania said it deployed two F-16 jet fighters to destroy a Russia-launched explosive marine drone that threatened hundreds of lives near one of its gas platforms."

Authorities said the sea drone was observed coming to within just a few hundred meters away from the platform, and thus the decision was made that it must be neutralized.

Citing Romanian Defense Minister Radu Miruta, WSJ writes further, "The decision was taken, in consultation with NATO, to destroy the drone in order to protect the lives of the several hundred people who were working on the platform and to secure the infrastructure, Miruta said in a Facebook post."

President Nicușor Dan blamed Russia, after Ukraine said the drone wasn't theirs, and formally accused Moscow of endangering "critical infrastructure" and people "working at the platform."

"I strongly condemn the intensification of these types of irresponsible incidents on the part of the Russian Federation. We remain vigilant alongside NATO allies to defend ourselves and repel such challenges," he wrote on X.

The Kremlin hasn't immediately responded, and is unlikely to own up to it. However, it has recently vowed to punish Ukraine and its Western backers for the ramped-up long-range drone campaign which has unleashed havoc on its own oil refining and energy infrastructure. Moscow says that Western allies have been helping Ukrainian forces with targeting intelligence.

A Romanian F-16 destroyed a naval drone inside Romania's Black Sea EEZ on Thursday as it approached the Neptun Alpha gas platform, 80 nautical miles east of Constanța. pic.twitter.com/W9f2NVaxGX

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) August 20, 2026

There have been widely reported petrol shortages across Russia of late, even impacting the capital and surrounding regions, due to the non-stop drone waves.

European Commission President Von der Leyen commented on the new Black Sea incident in support of Romania and NATO. "An escalating campaign of threats is underway, unsettling our citizens and seeking to divide our Union," she wrote on X.

"With the European Drone Defence Initiative and the Eastern Flank Watch, we are scaling up production in Europe ... So we can respond to emerging threats with speed, unity and resolve," she added.

Video: Defense Minister Radu Miruta... showing the moment that the unidentified sea drone was obliterated...

🚨 BREAKING: A Romanian F-16 fired on an explosive-laden Russian sea drone near the Neptun Deep gas field in the Black Sea.

Top officials called it part of a growing Russian threat against the site, set to make Romania the EU's top gas producer by 2027.

Video: Defense Minister… pic.twitter.com/WxzWU5vGv7

— UNITED24 Media (@United24media) August 20, 2026

Aerial incidents involving Russian projectiles along the EU and NATO's 'eastern flank' have become somewhat of a regular occurrence; however, the spectacle of a NATO member's jets being scrambled to track and blow up a sea drone off coastal waters is something new. It was perhaps a bright flashing 'warning' from Russian forces, showing that they can harm vital EU energy infrastructure in return if they want to.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 17:21

Hawaii Could Face Another Hurricane This Weekend

Authored by T.J.Muscaro via The Epoch Times,

Hawaii could face its second tropical storm or hurricane in a week as a low-pressure system was reported on Aug. 19 to be developing near the islands.

Another tropical storm is expected to develop in the Central Pacific as Hurricane Lala moves away from Hawaii on Aug. 19, 2026. National Hurricane Center

The National Hurricane Center warned that the system was developing thunderstorms that had a 90 percent chance of organizing into a cyclone in the next 48 hours.

“Environmental conditions appear favorable for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph and crosses into the Central Pacific,” the center advised.

“Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor the progress of this system.”

As of 4:30 p.m. ET on Aug. 19, forecast models generally estimated the storm to remain offshore and pass well south of the archipelago, with the closest pass being on the southern point of the Big Island around Aug. 23.

Some models indicate that a pocket of high pressure will remain over the Big Island during this time.

If this storm develops into a tropical storm—that is, it organizes into a proper cyclone with sustained wind speeds of at least 39 mph—it will become Tropical Storm Moke.

Meanwhile, residents across multiple islands continue to reel from the close pass of Hurricane Lala just one week ago.

The Big Island was hit with more than three feet of rain in some places, triggering catastrophic flooding and landslides that rendered highways impassable and washed away entire homes, particularly in the communities of Naalehu and Waiohinu.

Power outages, downed trees, rock slides, and severe winds also impacted the islands of Maui, Molokai, Lanai, Oahu, and Kauai over the previous weekend.

Major airports on Oahu, Maui, and the Big Island remained accessible and operational at some capacity on Aug. 16.

The governor closed all state and county offices as well as all schools and judiciary offices on Aug. 17 due to the damage the hurricane left behind.

Hawaiian Electric estimated that some customers in the southeast end of the Big Island could be without power through Labor Day weekend, with 95 percent expected to have power restored by Sept. 8, if the new storm development does not disrupt their work.

“We understand that it is frustrating and challenging to be without power,” the company said on X.

“Due to significant storm damage, customers in certain remote or severely damaged areas should prepare to be without power for much longer periods of time.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 17:00

"No Thanks!" Has A Price: Trump Guts Korea War Games, Courts Kim As The Seoul Alliance Buckles

Hours before 18,000 South Korean troops were due to kick off this year's Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise alongside their American counterparts, President Trump pulled the rug - instructing Secretary of War Pete Hegseth to "substantially reduce the Joint Military Exercises" with Seoul. By Wednesday the allies confirmed the annual drills - the backbone of combined readiness against the North - had been chopped nearly in half, from 11 days to five, with live field-training events canceled or downgraded to computer simulations.

Lee Jae Myung with Donald Trump during a meeting in the Oval Office in August last year. Lee has long wanted to dial down military posturing. Photograph: Alex Brandon/AP

According to Trump, the drills are costly (with Washington footing most of the bill); the exercises send a 'hostile and inappropriate' signal toward a North Korea that has been "unthreatening and respectful" on his watch; and - revenge... Seoul refused to help with the war on Iran. Trump recounted asking President Lee Jae-myung whether South Korea would care to join the denuclearization of the Islamic Republic, and characterized Seoul's answer as a breezy "No thanks!"

This sent Seoul scrambling, as  Lee spent Tuesday's cabinet meeting insisting the US alliance remains the bedrock of South Korean security, while his military worked out how to salvage an exercise that was already underway. Meanwhile, Pyongyang spent last week denouncing the drills as "a rehearsal for an aggressive war" - lobbing two ballistic missiles in the space of six days earlier this month. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi arrived in Seoul mid-week for security talks, presumably trying to keep a straight face.

The Drawdown That Dare Not Speak Its Name

With US-SK relations having souring over the past couple of years over the punishment of US tech giants with arbitrary fines (extortion, basically), Trump's decision follows long-telegraphed push to shrink US Forces Korea itself. The Wall Street Journal reported back in May 2025 that the Pentagon had drafted options to pull roughly 4,500 of the 28,500 US troops off the peninsula and reposition them in Guam and elsewhere in the Indo-Pacific. While the Pentagon denied it, lawmakers freaked out and wrote a 28,500-troop floor directly into the FY2026 NDAA.

This means that the Trump administration has had to get creative: the exercises are halved under the guise of "strategic flexibility," while the admin is repurposing USFK (United States Forces Korea) for a China-Taiwan contingency rather than a purely North Korean one, and Seoul is now under pressure to pay quite a bit more for the privilege of hosting a force whose mission increasingly isn't about Korea at all. Lee himself has conceded that Washington's demand for flexibility is apparently one Seoul cannot easily accept.

This Didn't Come Out Of Nowhere

Longtime readers know the US-SK alliance has been deteriorating for well over a year. As we detailed last October, South Korea's Fair Trade Commission has spent a decade functioning less like an antitrust regulator and more like a toll booth for American tech: an $854 million hit on Qualcomm in 2016, $177 million on Google in 2021 over Android, serial actions against Apple's App Store - all while domestic firms Naver and Kakao have been allowed to skate despite similar actions. One study put the combined ten-year economic damage of Seoul's tech crackdown at roughly $1 trillion, including $525 billion to the US economy.

Washington noticed. In December, as we reported, the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) abruptly scrapped a scheduled KORUS Joint Committee meeting - the main forum for managing the free-trade relationship - after Seoul kept pushing digital regulations the administration considers discriminatory, despite having signed a framework weeks earlier promising not to. And in February, the House Judiciary Committee opened a formal investigation and subpoenaed Coupang - the NYSE-listed, American-owned "Amazon of Korea" - for documents on its treatment at the hands of Korean regulators.

Then Seoul stepped on the rake again after a former Coupang employee improperly accessed phonebook-grade customer data - names and addresses - with roughly 3,000 records actually downloaded, later recovered, never sold or misused, and with no documented consumer harm. Taiwan, whose customers were swept up in the same incident, handled it the way regulators normally do: a review, a compliance plan, move on.

Seoul decided to bust Coupang's balls. Police raided the company repeatedly; a dozen agencies launched investigations and enforcement actions, most of them having nothing to do with data security; politicians publicly vilified Coupang's American founder; and the firm's acting CEO - a US citizen - was dragged through days of kangaroo court hearings in which, per the committee's account, he was denied American counsel, accused of perjury over truthful testimony, and threatened with travel bans, criminal charges, and jail. 

In June, Korea's privacy regulator hit Coupang with a $409 million fine - the largest privacy penalty in the country's history, and more than four times the next-biggest, which had been levied on a Korean firm that exposed far more sensitive data. On July 1 - the same month Seoul lit its landmarks red, white, and blue for America's 250th birthday - House Judiciary published its report, "Closed for Competition," documenting officials pressuring the national pension fund to dump Coupang stock, lawmakers threatening to drive the company out of the country, and the prime minister urging regulators to pursue it "with the same determination used to wipe out mafias."

Deport The Regulators?

Which brings us to Capitol Hill's latest innovation. In late July, Rep. Michael Baumgartner (R-WA) - who in April led 54 House colleagues in a letter demanding Seoul stand down - introduced the No Racketeers on Our Shores Act, which would amend the Immigration and Nationality Act to deny US entry to, or deport, foreign officials "who weaponize the government to discriminate against American companies." The bill's fact sheet cites the Coupang case by name. In short: keep shaking down American firms, and your regulators can enjoy the view from outside the United States.

Two weeks ago, Judiciary Republicans fired off yet another letter, this time over Seoul's new "fake news" amendment - a KMCC-enforced regime that can fine publishers with over 100,000 subscribers, and large platforms, for spreading disfavored information. The platforms that clear those thresholds - Facebook, X, Instagram, YouTube - are, conveniently, almost all American.

Trump-Kim Bromance 2.0?

Amid the chill with South Korea, the WSJ reported Tuesday that Trump is pushing aides to arrange a meeting with Kim Jong Un as soon as this fall - potentially around the November APEC summit in Shenzhen. On Wednesday Trump confirmed it himself, telling reporters he'll meet Kim this year, describing the N. Korean leader as "well behaved," and casually confirming Pyongyang's arsenal at 57 "very powerful" nuclear weapons. Kim's sister Kim Yo Jong claims to be unaware of any recent correspondence, and no date has been set. 

No half-measures...

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 16:40

Fake News 'Journalists' Love The Deep State

Authored by J.B. Shurk via American Thinker,

The Fourth Estate is constitutionally illiterate...

On Sunday morning’s Meet the Press, NBC News hack Kristen Welker pressed newly sworn-in Attorney General Todd Blanche to “pledge that the Justice Department will always act independently of the White House.”  The fake “journalist” performed this bit of moralizing theater with her “very serious” face, as if to suggest that the nation’s survival depended upon Blanche’s answer.  Blanche calmly swatted Welker’s solicitation away, while pointing out that no competent, law-abiding attorney general should ever make such an absurd pledge.

It was another ridiculous moment in “journalism” and reminded viewers that the biggest names in corporate news are stupid, partisan, and duplicitous.  Why would Welker believe that she is entitled to demand some kind of public oath from the attorney general?  Why does she think the United States should have an “independent” Department of Justice?  Does she not understand that the DOJ is part of the Executive Branch?  Is she not aware that AG Blanche serves in President Trump’s cabinet?  Does she not realize that Trump is his boss?  Does she not grasp that AG Blanche is now seventh in the presidential line of succession?

Many idiot “reporters” ran to social media so that they could be seen collapsing on their digital fainting couches.  “Pretty amazing confession here by the AG,” moron Chuck Todd whimpered before further whining, “Still can’t believe he was confirmed.  I guess he gets points for being honest?”  Yes, Chuck, it is stunning that the attorney general recognizes his constitutional obligation to serve the president of the United States.  AG Blanche has “confessed” that he is not a rogue dictator empowered to run the Department of Justice by kingly prerogative.  (Be careful kids: Mixing too much Kristen Welker and Chuck Todd in the same Kool-Aid punch bowl will kill millions of brain cells.)

What is it with these people?  

They scream constantly about America’s descent into dictatorship, and then they demand that administrative department heads rule the country with complete disregard for the constitutional authority of the elected president.  Welker and Todd’s insistence that the AG behave as a monarch beholden to no-one reeks of the same foul odor that the corporate news media produced on an industrial scale during COVID.

When the former director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Anthony Fauci, was telling the world, “I represent science,” and, “Now is the time to do what you are told,” fake “journalists” clapped like seals.  Fauci and his fellow institutional health frauds ordered people to wear useless masks, stay indoors, and inject their bodies with experimental mRNA serums, and the so-called Fourth Estate — the self-adulating phonies who claim to speak truth to power — told anyone with a functioning brain to stop questioning the omniscient Dr. Fauci and obey the mass murderer’s (hey, anyone who helped fund the creation of COVID in a Wuhan bioweapons laboratory before conspiring with the pharmaceutical industry to pump poison into every human being surely must be guilty of crimes against humanity) every command.

Now that the COVID Era has been exposed as a wretched period in which pseudoscience and fake “expertise” were weaponized to justify the rapid onslaught of government totalitarianism and the obliteration of the Bill of Rights, any journalist worthy of the job title should be more wary than ever of administrative state megalomaniacs wielding unconstrained power.  Instead, the Welkers and Todds of journalism’s inbred propaganda class beg for new Deep State authority figures to act unilaterally.  Corporate news talking heads call President Trump an “authoritarian” while expressing shock when unelected bureaucrats refrain from mimicking fraud Fauci’s cult leader demeanor.

This is who they are.  

Corporate “journalists” despise the Constitution.  They sneer at Americans who speak of their God-given rights.  They worship so-called “experts.” 

 They pray at the altar of the permanent government bureaucracy.  

They probably all have tattoos expressing deep love for the Deep State.  

When the “right” candidate wins an election - such as King Barack Hussein Obama II - the Welkers and Todds of “journalism’s” obsequious priestly caste demand that the American people treat the Fourth Estate-approved president as part demigod, part adoptive father.

When the “wrong” candidates win elections, the Welkers and Todds are the first to question the results.  They will spend years defending the Russia Collusion Hoax, even though Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign paid for those lies, while Barack Obama, John Brennan, James Clapper, Jim Comey, Susan Rice, and so many other Deep Staters used the machinery of the CIA, NSA, and FBI to perpetrate a mass disinformation campaign against the American people.  They will cover up Hunter Biden’s incriminating laptop linking the Biden family to quid-pro-quo corruption in Ukraine, while working with the Intelligence Community, Mitt Romney, and other immoral and unethical frauds to turn a damning Biden scandal into a Trump impeachment.  They will stay completely silent as Democrat lawfare specialists use COVID to upend the 2020 presidential election with mail-in-ballot fraud, social media manipulation, Facebook election-rigging, and total disregard for statutory election law.  Then they will lose their ever-loving minds when Trump voters question the likelihood that perennially unpopular politician Joe Biden somehow eclipsed the vote totals of both President Obama and President Trump to become the “most popularly elected president” in American history.

The Kristen Welkers and Chuck Todds of “journalism’s” pathetically myopic clique of Democrat Party bootlickers never protested when corrupt Attorney General Eric Holder (who turned the USA PATRIOT Act into a weapon for spying on political enemies) referred to himself as Obama’s “wingman.”  They said nothing when Attorney General Merrick Garland and Democrat prosecutors Jack Smith, Matthew Colangelo, Alvin Bragg, and Fani Willis worked with Joe Biden’s White House to imprison President Trump for the rest of his natural life.  They said nothing when the Biden White House conspired with Democrat prosecutors and judges to impose “gag orders” on President Trump while he was campaigning for re-election.  They said nothing when the Biden White House dedicated significant FBI and DOJ resources to hunting down J6 protesters and inexcusably defaming them as “traitors,” “seditionists,” and “domestic terrorists.”  They said nothing when the Biden White House investigated, threatened, and prosecuted Trump’s attorneys, employees, and associates.  They said nothing when Biden’s DOJ harassed and intimidated hundreds of MAGA-aligned organizations, donors, and influencers.  They said nothing when Biden’s DOJ spied on Republican members of Congress while pursuing “seditious conspiracy” charges against Trump.  They said nothing when members of the Biden White House used an autopen to pardon hundreds of violent criminals.  While Obama and Biden used the DOJ to ruin the lives of ordinary Americans for the “crime” of having “incorrect” political beliefs, the Welkers and Todds of “journalism’s” toxic junkyard ignored the pungent stink of White House corruption.

From the point of view of corporate news propagandists, a Democrat-controlled White House is permitted to use the FBI and DOJ to target political enemies.  When a Republican sits in the Oval Office, the White House’s authority over the DOJ must be severed and the attorney general must be made to swear a loyalty oath to the permanent bureaucracy.  According to our dumb and ideologically partisan corporate “journalists,” there is a special Fourth Branch of government entitled to ignore the Constitution and the president’s inherent Executive authority while protecting the Deep State and the Democrat Party’s interests.

What’s particularly galling about Welker and Todd’s constitutional illiteracy is each buffoon’s insistence that independent bureaucrats somehow safeguard “democracy.”  Unelected government employees do not represent the American people.  To accord them more power than elected officials is to weaken the public’s control over their own government.  

Treating the Faucis, Holders, Garlands, Brennans, and Comeys as if they possess distinct Executive power derived separately from that of the president’s is not conducive to a constitutional republic.  It is the gateway drug to future dictatorship.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 16:20

'Hot Mess': Salmonella Outbreak Linked To Jalapeños Spreads To More States

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

The salmonella outbreak connected to jalapeño peppers from Mexico has spread to additional states, U.S. authorities said on Aug. 19.

Thirty-two states have now reported cases in the outbreak, up from 27 states earlier in the month, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in an update.

The states are: Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.

Colorado and Minnesota have each recorded more than 100 cases, while more than two dozen have been logged in Georgia and Illinois. The other states have reported one to 14 cases.

The outbreak has reached 431 cases, with 86 of those new cases and 57 hospitalizations. No deaths have been reported.

The outbreak has been linked to jalapeños from a farm in Sinaloa and distributed to the United States earlier in the year. Stores that sold the peppers and products containing them include Kroger, Target, Trader Joe’s, and Whole Foods Market.

Taylor Fresh Foods, Whole Foods, NatureBest, and Hardie’s Fresh Foods have recalled both the peppers and products containing them.

The products include Spicy Jarlsberg Dip, sold at Kroger, and Taco Dip, sold at Target. The full list of products can be found on the Food and Drug Administration website.

The public is advised not to consume the recalled products. They can either be thrown out or returned to the place of purchase for a refund. Restaurants and other companies should not sell or serve the peppers, authorities said.

Salmonella, caused by consuming contaminated food, typically causes symptoms such as diarrhea, fever, and abdominal cramps 12 to 72 hours after consuming the food. If a person experiences symptoms such as a fever higher than 102 degrees Fahrenheit combined with diarrhea, they should call their health care provider, according to the CDC.

A digitally colorized scanning electron microscopic image of a grouping of Gram-negative bacilli, or rod-shaped, Salmonella sp. bacteria. Janice Haney Carr/CDC

Illnesses in the outbreak started as early as June 19 and as late as Aug. 2.

Of the 224 patients interviewed by investigators, 91 percent reported eating at a Mexican-style restaurant before getting sick, including Chipotle Mexican Grill and QDOBA.

Amid the outbreak and a spike in cases of cyclosporiasis, a disease caused by food contaminated with feces, the acting Food and Drug Administration commissioner said recently that people should have confidence in the country’s food supply.

“We have the safest food supply in the world,” Kyle Diamantas said.

“FDA investigates dozens of foodborne illness outbreaks each year,” he added later. “There is definitely a heightened narrative right now. People are more aware.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 15:40

Food Supply Alert: Ukraine Grain Exports Collapse As Black Sea Attacks Choke Global Shipments

Upward momentum in agricultural prices, as tracked by the Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index, should be ringing inflationary alarm bells. The breakout comes just one week after JPMorgan analyst Nora Szentivanyi warned that the next global food crisis could materialize as early as next year.

Multiple shocks are converging all at once across the global food complex, including continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, rising El Niño risks, and adverse weather across the US agricultural belt.

This note focuses on another emerging chokepoint: Europe's breadbasket, where intensifying attacks in the Russia-Ukraine war have shuttered critical Black Sea grain export terminals.

Reuters reports that global wheat importers are preparing for tighter supplies and higher prices as tit-for-tat attacks on Black Sea ports and bulk carriers continue to disrupt shipments during the region's peak export season.

Those attacks have shuttered grain terminals and forced shippers to delay or cancel dozens of cargoes. Ukraine reported 35 attacks on vessels in port, 22 at sea, and 67 against port facilities in July, compared with just 14 such incidents during all of 2025.

Ukraine has damaged Russia’s grain export terminals in an attack on the Novorossiysk port, while Russia has struck grain infrastructure in Ukraine's Odesa region. Tit-for-tat attacks between the world’s major grain exporters threatens food security in import-dependent countries. pic.twitter.com/YxwIQApNYI

— Shogri (@shogri786) August 14, 2026

Asian processors booked between 2 million and 2.5 million tons of Black Sea wheat for delivery from July through September, representing about 30% to 50% of regional import demand, according to Singapore-based traders. Traders are fretting over some grain shipments won't arrive in time because of the widespread disruptions. 

At the importer level, Egypt and Indonesia are among some of the top countries exposed to Black Sea shipments. Egypt, the world's largest wheat importer, sourced more than 82% of its first-half imports from Russia and Ukraine. Indonesia contracted for roughly 600,000 tons from suppliers in the region for delivery in July to September.

One Singapore-based trader who sells Black Sea wheat to millers in Asia told the outlet, "The cargoes were due to start arriving from mid-August, but many ships could not go in to load. Buyers are thinking about replacing some of these cargoes with other origins, such as Australia, North America and Argentina."

Maxence Devillers, a grain analyst at Argus Media, said buyers facing delayed or entirely canceled shipments from the region "will have to find other solutions by the end of the month."

🌾 #Ukraine and #Russia dropping out of the market could trigger a new global #grain #crisis

Further escalation of attacks on Ukraine’s and Russia’s port and grain logistics could sharply reduce Black Sea supplies.

Read more 👉https://t.co/g4GuYe7TZA pic.twitter.com/yHgfFSnk0G

— UkrAgroConsult (@UkrAgroConsult) August 20, 2026

Separately, Bloomberg pointed out that Russian attacks on Odesa have nearly halted Ukraine's grain exports this peak harvest season. Total grain shipments from Ukraine have amounted to about 500,000 tons since the start of August, equivalent to roughly 20% of the country's potential exports. The Greater Odesa ports normally handle about 90% of Ukraine's grain shipments. 

The escalating Black Sea attacks across Europe's breadbasket have pushed Chicago wheat futures to a two-year high.

A broader gauge of agricultural commodities, the Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index, is also breaking out, signaling real-time inflationary pressure building at the raw-material level of the food system.

A must-read: "Won't Be Short-Lived": JPMorgan Warns Next Global Food Crisis Could Erupt Next Year

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 15:20

The Harp Defense: Jennings Jockeys For SPOX After Leavitt Leaves

CNN political contributor and nationally syndicated radio host Scott Jennings just dropped a full-throated defense of Natalie Harp after reports surfaced that the conservative commentator is angling to replace outgoing White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, according to Politico's Playbook.

"I just don't think that's what you sign up for when you're someone like Natalie Harp, who never put her name on a ballot. She's not the White House press secretary. She's not a household name, and I just find it to be appalling," Jennings told Playbook. "Somebody needs to defend her honor."

Harp, the 35-year-old special assistant to President Donald Trump, has spent years flying under the radar as one of the president's most constant aides. Insiders call her the "human printer" because she packs a portable printer everywhere, churning out hard copies of news articles, social-media posts and anything else Trump wants to see on paper, according to the anti-Trump publication The Bulwark.

That low profile shattered this week when Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) name-dropped her at a Georgia campaign rally, accusing the Trump of preferring to "build his ballroom and travel with Natalie on their apparently defenseless flying palace gifted by the Emir of Qatar" rather than fully attend to his official duties.

Harp first caught Trump's eye in 2019 when she publicly credited his Right to Try legislation with opening the door to experimental treatment for bone cancer, the New York Times reports.

Meanwhile, no decision was made and no offer extended an offer to Jennings to take the podium. A report from NOTUS on Wednesday paraphrased Trump as saying he is "not quite sold" on Jennings for the role. The report did note, though, that the president would prefer a man to succeed the outgoing Leavitt.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 15:00

Tonight: Trump To Appear On Turncoat Michael Cohen's Radio Show

Michael Cohen - Donald Trump's former 'fixer' who once vowed to take a bullet for him, only to flip after he was raided by the FBI in 2018 in the Stormy Daniels hush-money probe - says that Trump has agreed to appear on his New York City-area radio show this week.

Cohen wrote on X on Wednesday to confirm that Trump would appear on “the radio show I’m hosting tomorrow night at 6pm and the rest on my Sunday” show on 770 WABC Radio.

It’s not for the podcast…it’s the radio show I’m hosting tomorrow night at 6pm and the rest on my Sunday 5pm est radio show on 77WABC radio called “When You Know…You Know”. https://t.co/ap68IAlrcJ

— Michael Cohen (@MichaelCohen212) August 19, 2026

Cohen told CBS that this will be "the first public conversation between the president and myself in eight years," adding "You know, there have been private conversations that have, of course, been reported. But this is the first public conversation."

As the Epoch Times notes further, Cohen also linked to a Substack article that served as a recollection of the public feud the two had, which included Cohen testifying against Trump in his New York City criminal trial in 2024. Cohen served as one of the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office’s star witnesses, alleging the president was intensely involved in a plan to pay off a former adult film actress during his 2016 campaign.

“Eight years of silence. Hundreds of thousands of headlines. Fifteen years of history fractured in an instant, and somehow, against almost every expectation, here we are. Since yesterday’s announcement broke, my inbox has once again become a digital battlefield. It has been flooded with hatred, anger, disbelief, and some of the most spectacularly vicious things imaginable,” Cohen wrote.

He later wrote that “apparently, quite a few are ready to personally escort me to the gates of hell for daring to share a microphone with Donald Trump again.”

Speaking to Politico on Wednesday, Cohen answered a question about whether he would seek a presidential pardon.

Cohen in 2018 was sentenced to three years in federal prison after pleading guilty to campaign finance violations, tax evasion, bank fraud, and lying to Congress. He completed his sentence and supervision requirements in November 2021.

“We’ll see,” he said in response. “Will I make that request down the road? I don’t know. Maybe maybe not.”

Referring to the upcoming interview, Cohen told the outlet that listeners will be “interested to hear two individuals that were friends for a decade and a half who have not publicly spoken in eight years” talk about their past.

Trump, who was convicted in a jury trial on 34 counts of falsifying business records, denied the charges against him and pleaded not guilty. He has long said that the Manhattan district attorney’s case and cases that were brought against him in Georgia, Washington, and Florida were a “political witch hunt.”

The judge who oversaw the case, Juan Merchan, sentenced Trump to an unconditional discharge in January 2025, coming about two months after Trump won reelection.

In his first term, Trump often criticized Cohen in response to claims his former lawyer made about him, writing on X in 2018: “If anyone is looking for a good lawyer, I would strongly suggest that you don’t retain the services of Michael Cohen!” Cohen would often appear on then-MSNBC and CNN to criticize the first Trump term.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 14:40

Has Iranian Crude Become Irrelevant To Global Oil Supply?

Submitted by Tsvetana Paraskova Of OilPrice.com

The reinstated U.S. blockade on Iranian oil exports is effectively preventing Tehran from exporting oil, making Iran’s oil volumes irrelevant for global oil market balances, Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, told CNBC on Thursday.

The U.S. brought back the blockade in the Gulf of Oman aimed at preventing Iran from exporting its oil after the ‘deal to make a deal’ collapsed in July and hostilities in the Middle East returned.

The blockade, which the U.S. had lifted for about three weeks while negotiations were being held in June and early July, is now back and effectively blockading Iran’s oil exports.

“Kharg Island is not exporting anymore,” McNally told CNBC, referring to Iran’s key oil export terminal that handles more than 90% of all shipments.

“Iran has stopped being a factor for the oil market in terms of its exports because of the blockade,” McNally said.

Iran may have been removed from the real barrels count, but the crude oil futures market is underpricing geopolitical risk, the energy expert told CNBC.

“The refined products are telling the story” of how crude futures may be underpricing the tightness in the global oil market, according to McNally.

In addition, “the market has become a little less optimistic about near-term and sustainable reopening of Hormuz,” he said, adding that the longer the disruption goes on, “the risk is that crude will follow products higher.”

Brent Crude prices topped $91 per barrel this week amid heightened security concerns for shipping in the Middle East and fading hopes that the U.S. and Iran could return to negotiations.

The refined product market, however, is already flashing severe tightness, with the diesel crack spread hitting record highs in both the United States and Europe this week.

The diesel crack spread in the United States hit triple digits this week, for the first time ever. The premium over crude prices jumped to as high as $102 per barrel on Monday, before easing slightly to about $100 a barrel on Tuesday.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 14:00

"Significant" Tornado Threat Incoming For DC To Baltimore To Philadelphia

Senior meteorologist Matthew Cappucci of private weather forecaster MyRadarWX is monitoring the potential for isolated tornadoes along the Interstate 95 corridor, from areas north of Washington, D.C., through Baltimore and Wilmington, Delaware, and into the Philadelphia metro area.

Tornadoes are not unheard of in the Mid-Atlantic, but a potential setup later this afternoon capable of producing multiple tornadoes across a large swath of Maryland, Delaware, and southeastern Pennsylvania would be unusual.

"Mid-Atlantic gang – can't rule out an isolated tornado this afternoon embedded within/ahead of a developing squall line. There's just enough low-level easterly winds to bolster spin. Brief tornado possible IF southward-sagging front doesn't undercut storms too quickly," Cappucci wrote on X earlier this morning. 

Mid-Atlantic gang – can't rule out an isolated tornado this afternoon embedded within/ahead of a developing squall line.

There's just enough low-level easterly winds to bolster spin. Brief tornado possible IF southward-sagging front doesn't undercut storms too quickly. pic.twitter.com/9grxM09gXd

— Matthew Cappucci (@MatthewCappucci) August 20, 2026

MyRadarWX posted for the Mid-Atlantic region: 

We're closely monitoring the risk of an isolated tornado or two in the Mid-Atlantic, including along/east of I-95. While a squall line is likely to form, concern is growing that a couple supercell structure may evolve ahead of the line and produce a tornado or two. Subtle influences, like the bay breeze, may provide an additional source of low-level spin. The main wildcard is how quickly a southward-advancing cold front moves. Too quick, and it could undercut storms/sweep them into a non-tornadic line. A bit slower, however, and easterly surface winds ahead of it could bolster low-level spin, increasing tornado risk.

We're closely monitoring the risk of an isolated tornado or two in the Mid-Atlantic, including along/east of I-95.

While a squall line is likely to form, concern is growing that a couple supercell structure may evolve ahead of the line and produce a tornado or two.

Subtle… pic.twitter.com/lQPRr2pQxt

— MyRadar Weather (@MyRadarWX) August 20, 2026

MyRadarWX's timing of the incoming storm for the region, with a possible "isolated EF2+ 'significant' tornado," is for Thursday afternoon. 

D.C., Baltimore, Philadelphia and Dover – the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded our tornado risk today, Thursday afternoon, August 20. While only a couple tornadoes are possible, the atmosphere could support an isolated EF2+ "significant" tornado. That would be predicated on the formation of a supercell or two (rotating thunderstorms) ahead of an eventual squall line. The greatest chance is in northeastern Maryland, southeast Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey or the northern Delmarva. Low probability, but high impact if it happens.

D.C., Baltimore, Philadelphia and Dover – the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded our tornado risk today, Thursday afternoon, August 20. While only a couple tornadoes are possible, the atmosphere could support an isolated EF2+ "significant" tornado.

That would be predicated on… pic.twitter.com/Cm591DsvDu

— MyRadar Weather (@MyRadarWX) August 20, 2026

The National Weather Service tornado scale states that an EF2 tornado can tear roofs off homes, destroy mobile homes, snap large trees, and turn debris into dangerous projectiles. MyRadarWX's risk forecast is not an official warning from the National Weather Service.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 13:40

Board Won't Add Trump's Name To Kennedy Center Before Sept. 8, Filing Says

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

The Kennedy Center’s board told federal court that it will not try to put President Donald Trump’s name back on the building’s facade before at least Sept. 8, giving both sides time to discuss a new resolution opponents say flouts a prior court order.

In a joint status report filed late on Aug. 18, attorneys for the center and the U.S. Department of Justice said the board would delay enforcing the so-called recognition resolution the board approved on Aug. 13.

The measure stated that the board would add an inscription reading, “Restored and Renovated by President Donald J. Trump,” and rename the plaza in front of the building after the president.

Another resolution approved the same day provided that the center be closed for two years for renovations.

This means that some of the institution’s high-profile programming, such as the Kennedy Center Honors and the Mark Twain Prize for American Humor, would have to be presented off-site.

The National Symphony Orchestra said days ago that it would divide its upcoming season among six venues in and around the nation’s capital.

Rep. Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio), an ex officio member of the center’s board of trustees, filed the lawsuit challenging the center’s first renaming—as “The Donald J. Trump and The John F. Kennedy Memorial Center for the Performing Arts”—in December 2025.

Attorneys for Beatty said in the new filing that the latest name change resolution was a “breathtaking act of defiance.”

The statute that created the center “provides no lawful basis” to ignore the federal district court’s prior ruling and “impose Donald Trump’s name on a memorial dedicated by the Congress exclusively to a different President,” they said.

“Defendants are, once again, trying to memorialize Donald Trump—something the statute expressly prohibits,” her lawyers added.

U.S. District Judge Christopher Cooper ordered Trump’s name taken off the center’s marble facade on May 29, setting a removal deadline of June 12. Construction crews used scaffolding to begin physically prying the words “Donald Trump” off the facade in the early morning hours of June 13.

In the status report, the center said the scaffolding and a protective cover known as a tarp are needed for water testing and structural repairs to the roof overhang and its underside, and that the scaffolding was also used to remove the president’s name.

Beatty’s attorneys disputed that explanation, arguing the structure is in place to keep the Kennedy name obscured and prevent a return to the pre-litigation status quo.

They asked Cooper to rule before Sept. 8 on the lawfulness of the recognition resolution, arguing that the board seemed ready to act as soon as the center’s voluntary pause of free public tours ended.

The lawmaker’s attorneys also asked the court to direct the center to show cause why the covering should not be removed within 30 days, and to order the parties to begin discovery, an evidence-gathering process, into the shutdown decision.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 13:00

The Great Reversal: Decades-Long Bond Bull Lacy Hunt On His Bearish Pivot, Tonight

LIVE NOW:

https://t.co/Vg3ZRZ4A9F

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 20, 2026

***********************

For nearly four decades, Dr. Lacy Hunt has been one of Wall Street's most steadfast bond bulls.

As chief economist of Hoisington Investment Management, Hunt built his reputation around a simple but powerful thesis: globalization, excessive debt and slowing growth would keep inflation and interest rates suppressed. He maintained that view through the aftermath of the financial crisis, a decade of ultra-easy monetary policy, and even the COVID explosion in money supply and inflation.

Now, the bond legend is making a major pivot.

Hoisington has slashed the duration of its bond portfolio and moved the proceeds into short-dated Treasury bills. With that, the wealth management firm also declared: the disinflationary regime that dominated the global economy from roughly 1990 through 2020 may be coming to an end.

Tonight at 7PM ET, Hunt will join ZeroHedge to explain why.

Hunt’s pivot preceded yesterday’s bond market scare followed by the Bessent Buyback we covered yesterday… evidently the bull turned bearish just in time.

At the heart of Hunt's new thesis are three structural changes: globalization is reversing (tariffs, onshoring), the global labor glut is disappearing (birthrate, aging boomers), and capital is becoming scarce (government deficits).  

Indeed it is https://t.co/b12Aqslmd5

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 19, 2026

On the other hand, long-term inflation expectations remain relatively subdued. Foreign capital continues flowing into Treasuries. Global trade recently hit record levels relative to world GDP. And Hunt's thesis gives relatively little weight to the possibility that AI eventually produces a productivity boom powerful enough to become a major disinflationary force.

That is where tonight's discussion begins.

Hunt will be joined by Adam Taggart of Thoughtful Money and Brent Johnson, who popularized the "Dollar Milkshake Theory."

Taggart and Johnson will probe Hunt's new framework and pressure-test the assumptions behind one of the most consequential macro pivots in recent memory.

We'll ask the man himself. Watch tonight at 7PM ET here on the ZeroHedge homepage, X feed, and YouTube channel.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 12:40

Mass Casualties In Large Russian Assault On Ukraine's Capital, Air Defenses Dwindle

Ukraine started the week with near record-setting drone attacks on Moscow, with over 600 UAVs sent against the Russian capital Monday night into Tuesday.

The expected major Russian retaliation has come overnight, with a huge missile and drone barrage on the Ukrainian capital. Many dozens were sent, killing over 16 people and injuring more than 40, local authorities report.

Ukrainian media

The casualty rate was high despite that Ukraine says it managed to intercept nearly 90% of inbound projectiles, which it did not give a total figure for.

Local media reports indicate the capital city's Solomianskyi district district was the worst hit:

In the Sviatoshynskyi district, a Russian attack damaged buildings on non-residential property. In addition, a fire broke out in the warehouse facilities there.

In the Solomianskyi district, debris damaged the upper floors of a 9-story residential building, after which a fire broke out there. Rescue workers have already extinguished it. Windows were also shattered in four nearby residential buildings.

At another location, debris caused a fire on the upper floors of a 4-story building.

In addition, a school and a children's hospital were damaged in the Solomianskyi district. Windows were shattered at the hospital, and cars caught fire on its grounds. The fire has been extinguished. Garages were also damaged.

President Zelensky used the devastation to once again call on the West to urgently provide more Patriot systems, amid dwindling anti-air supplies.

"The interceptors for Patriot systems have not yet been replaced, and they are needed every day," Zelensky wrote in a Telegram post on Thursday. "Each additional missile saves the lives of our people."

The Russian defense ministry said in familiar messaging that it was targeting military-industrial sites connected to the Ukrainian armed forces.

A Russian ballistic missile attack struck Ukrainian capital Kyiv overnight on Wednesday, killing at least nine people and wounding 60 others, according to Mayor Vitali Klitschko. #WorldNow pic.twitter.com/W1LFPApSO1

— CGTN (@CGTNOfficial) August 20, 2026

In the meantime, an example of Ukraine's own latest aerial assaults deep into Russian territory is seen in the following: "One regional publication notes that among the latest include: "in Russia, authorities in the republic of Tatarstan said several people were injured and homes were damaged in a Ukrainian drone attack."

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 12:00

EU NatGas Hits 2023 Energy Crisis Levels As Trump's "Economic D-Day" Clouds Hormuz Reopening

European natural gas prices surged to levels last seen during the energy crisis triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, when severe supply disruptions sent global markets into turmoil.

The catalyst was an overnight Truth Social post from President Trump declaring "ECONOMIC D-DAY" against Iran. The announcement raises the probability of prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime transit corridor for Gulf energy exports.

For Europe, continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz would constrain access to Gulf LNG, intensify competition for seaborne cargoes, and deepen the continent's reliance on US supplies. With European storage inventories already well below seasonal norms and the winter replenishment window narrowing, traders are slapping a premium on natural gas prices on Thursday.

Dutch front-month futures, Europe's gas benchmark, rose as much as 2.5% today and soared above 65 euros per megawatt-hour, a level last seen in 1Q23.

Trump stated in an overnight Truth Social post that, with Tehran's military and military-industrial base reduced to "now rubble" and its "currency worthless," he will unleash severe economic consequences against "ANY country that allows its financial institutions, businesses, airports, or government entities to provide any type of lifeline to Iran."

Earlier this week, Simon Penn, a London-based UBS macro strategist, focused on Germany's NatGas storage, which is only 50% full, compared with 57% a year ago and well below the 2009-25 average of 77%.

Europe, more broadly, is well below the 2009-25 average of 74%, with storage currently at around 61%.

It's not just low NatGas storage levels that Europeans have to worry about at this time of year, but also a diesel shortage. Combining these two problems, Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, recently warned that this energy crunch is "what keeps her up at night."

Must-Reads:

• "Really Only One Thing Worries Us A Lot": Here's What Keeps Goldman's Commodities Guru Up At Night
• Winter Is Coming: Europe Faces Twin Diesel And NatGas Crunch
• "Generates A Number Of Risks": UBS Warns German NatGas Storage Levels Alarmingly Below Seasonal Norms

Morgan Stanley analyst Martijn Rats wrote earlier that "the window to normalize before winter is rapidly closing." Translation: Lower NatGas stockpiles will put a bid under prices and fuel inflation across the EU.

At this point, Europeans had better hope that a strong El Niño would produce relatively mild weather. Otherwise, the continent could face a cold and extremely expensive winter.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 11:20

Of Anchovies And Blueberries – Why El Niño Matters

Authored by Nick Smallwood via BondVigilantes.com,

Why aren’t we talking more about El Niño?

After an exceptionally hot, dry summer in Western Europe and elsewhere, climate discussions proliferate. But neither mainstream media nor markets seem to be seriously discussing the risks and opportunities presented by what scientists appear to agree will be a “super El Niño”.  

In a world where food supplies have already been curtailed by the Russia-Ukraine conflict (especially wheat and sunflower oil), and where next year’s crop yields could be hit by the high price and/or scarcity of fertiliser due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz – through which 30% of global nitrogen and 50% of sulphur traditionally flow – a particularly strong El Niño seems bound to have a substantial impact on the economies of various South Pacific nations, and food-price inflation globally.  

It will also increase the price of logistics. As quoted in the FT on 11th August, raising the cost and decreasing the frequency of transits of the Panama Canal (whose water levels have already dropped dangerously low) will also be inflationary. As food-price inflation has a significant effect on emerging markets, these circumstances should lead to rising rates and currency volatility. We would anticipate plenty of investment opportunities for fixed-income, currency and (agricultural) commodity investors. 

The first point to make is that we are facing – yet again – a climate event of historic proportions. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts an 81% likelihood of a “very strong El Niño” (see graph), defined as one where the Pacific warms more than 2°C above the seasonal average and the highest classification they use. This event, however, seems set to be particularly dramatic. Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology predicts temperatures rising to 3.5°C above average. Considering that the previous peak in November 2015 came in at +2.6°C, we seem set for a profound climate event that smashes all previous records. 

Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) July 2026

One of the countries most heavily affected by El Niño is Peru, whose GDP growth can be reduced by over one percentage point by its impact. Extreme weather causes disruption, whether by flooding roads, impacting supply chains or affecting crop yields. Knowing El Niño is coming often deters economic activity and investment as people hunker down for a tough year. 

But it is quite amazing how the effect of El Niño on even a relatively small country like Peru can have a global impact in certain areas.

For instance, Peru is the world’s largest exporter of blueberries (over $2.5bn in 2025), so a substantial reduction in blueberry production will affect the availability and price of this fruit globally.

Next, consider the humble anchovy, which is fished for in great numbers off Peru’s shores. In fact, Peru’s anchovy fishery is considered the largest in the world by volume. During El Niño, the warm waters stress the fish and render them infertile, driving them deeper down to find cooler currents. Peru therefore seems likely to miss out on at least one of its two fishing seasons, with obvious implications for the local fishing industry.

What is less well known is that Peruvian anchovies are used to produce 20% of the world’s fishmeal, which is fed to farmed fish, other aquaculture and livestock. 

It therefore seems likely that people across the globe will notice the cost of fish rising in supermarkets next year. 

Those are just a couple of examples of local effects rippling across the world. But of course the warming of the Pacific Ocean will have a tremendous impact on crop production everywhere. The table below shows the scale of what may well hit us next year. To highlight a few stark examples, Australian wheat yields could collapse by up to 60%, global cocoa and coffee output could fall by 15% and we could see 10% declines in Brazilian corn. The weather will become more extreme, especially in South America, with typhoons, flooding and droughts expected to be more prevalent than usual. This is why we feel that the outlook for food production should have a higher profile than it does because the ramifications could be huge.

Parts of east Africa face serious shortages of staple grains and the prospect of food price inflation more generally is very real – some might say inevitable. 

Source: Band of America ML USDA paper July 2026

We therefore feel strongly that, while the eyes of the world have so far been on the oil price and energy costs, a lot more consideration should be given to the effects of global food supply constraints and prices, especially in Emerging Markets. 

Food prices are a much larger component of inflation baskets than energy in many emerging economies, particularly in Asia (see chart below). 

So while it should surprise nobody that Colombia, Peru and Brazil tend to suffer during periods of El Niño, it may come as more of a shock to realise that the inflationary impact is of similar magnitude on the other side of the world in China, Indonesia, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. Nor does Africa escape its effects, with Egypt and South Africa traditionally the most vulnerable, while in the developed world the UK also takes a hit due to its high proportion of imported food. As we enter the southern hemisphere’s planting season and El Niño begins to take hold, these effects will become more apparent.  

All things considered, the risks of a significant inflationary shock in 2027 driven by food prices – and the real possibility of actual shortages in some parts of the world – have a significant effect on emerging markets.  The risks are rising, and markets are just not pricing it in. 

Source: National statistics, J.P. Morgan, June 2026. Latest data available.
Information is subject to change and is not a guarantee of future results.

However, as always, there is a silver lining, which is that disruption brings opportunities as well as risks. 

Investors in agricultural commodities have a fascinating year ahead. Rising inflation should mean a concomitant rise in rates, which will have a significant impact on currencies and local-currency bond markets. There will also be idiosyncratic stories driven by extreme weather. For instance, the last El Niño caused very heavy flooding in southern Brazil in May 2024, destroying crops and local businesses. In turn, this caused fears of a major deterioration in asset quality for the local bank, Banco do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul (BRSRBZ), whose outstanding bond price dropped to 89. 

Source: M&G Bloomberg Brazil Banco do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul  5.375% 2031. January 2026

The relatively few investors who followed the name saw how swiftly the government reacted with a support package for the state and bought the bond near its lows.

It was called at par on time early this year. It would be a major surprise if we don’t see further such opportunities emerge this time around.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 11:00

Bitcoin Tops $72k After Largest Single-Day Crypto Short Liquidation In History

Bitcoin surpassed $70,000 for the first time in over two months, propelled by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s 'Operation Twist'-like move pushing US bond yields (and the dollar) lower followed by a high-stakes meeting President Trump held with crypto industry leaders.

“When yields drop and the dollar weakens, risk assets tend to rally, and we’ve already seen Bitcoin move higher on the news,” said Jeff Mei, chief operating officer at BTSE.

This morning, bitcoin has extended those gains, tagging $72,000...

And Ethereum has surged back up to $2300...

Which lifted ETH/BTC to its strongest level since the start of the year...

Bitcoin ETFs saw major inflows this week, especially yesterday, "as further proof of how institutional demand for crypto-assets is steadily growing,” said Vladimir Tikhomirov, co-founder of decentralized-finance firm Algebra.

But, probably the most notable feature of the price action of the last 24 hours (aside from its scale) was the unprecedented liquidation of short crypto positions...

Data from CoinGlass shows ongoing crypto short liquidations at $3.1 billion for Aug. 19-20.

Thursday’s tally was largest single-day wipeout of shorts ever recorded.

As CoinTelegraph reports, CoinGlass shows Bitcoin accounting for just over half of the total short liquidations at $1.65 billion.

The numbers do not represent the largest crypto liquidation event if long positions are included. It is dwarfed by the $20 billion long liquidation cascade that followed Bitcoin’s reversal from the most recent all-time high of $126,200 in October 2025.

In US dollar terms, data from CoinMarketCap puts Thursday’s total liquidations in seventh place historically, calculating the day’s long and short liquidations as $3.25 billion.

Rajiv Sawhney, head of international portfolio management at Wave Digital Assets, said yield-curve control “was the second-biggest market catalyst on our bucket list that could potentially supercharge a durable Bitcoin rally.”

The biggest catalyst would be a government mandate to buy Bitcoin for a national reserve, he said.

Bitfire Research notes that this rally was not driven by a single headline, but by a convergence of multiple catalysts: an overcrowded short structure meeting regulatory tailwinds, falling long-end yields, and cross-sector capital rotation.

The most direct trigger came from overcrowded short positions accumulated over six months of consolidation. Bitcoin's prolonged sideways trading around $60,000 allowed leveraged shorts to pile up. When prices broke through key liquidation clusters, forced buybacks triggered a chain reaction of covering, creating a positive feedback loop that amplified the squeeze.

Importantly, the spot market had already been signaling institutional accumulation before the derivatives squeeze erupted. On-chain data monitored by Bitfire Research reveals that institutional capital — including entities with listed company affiliations and vintage whale labels — had been actively accumulating at the $60,000 level. Confirming this picture, Bitfire Group's OTC desk posted a record-breaking July, with total trading volume surging 257% month-over-month. These two data streams — on-chain and OTC — point to the same conclusion: institutional spot buying had already picked up significantly before the price breakout, laying the groundwork for the rally.

On the policy front, the SEC unveiled a new digital asset regulatory framework with a safe harbor mechanism: up to $5 million in the launch phase and up to $75 million annually thereafter, with issuers able to exit securities classification upon completing compliance milestones. This sharply reduces compliance uncertainty for early-stage crypto projects, attracting incremental capital to reassess crypto risk pricing.

Macro liquidity also improved. After the 30-year US Treasury yield hit a near two-decade high, the Treasury announced plans to at least double its long-term bond buyback program, pushing the 30Y yield from 5.337% to 5.189%. Gold surged 4.33% in tandem. The decline in long-end yields opened room for Fed policy adjustments, providing liquidity support for high-beta risk assets.
 
On capital rotation, funds that had piled into AI narratives earlier in the year showed signs of returning. With Anthropic's Q2 revenue growth showing a second-order slowdown, the market began reassessing return expectations across asset classes, and crypto's relative appeal regained attention.

Additionally, Bloomberg reports that the return of positive sentiment to the crypto market was supported by Trump's meeting with crypto executives from firms including Coinbase, Payward, and Blockchain.com. The move helped revive optimism around the Clarity Act, a crypto market structure bill that failed to make it to a vote before the Senate’s August recess.

Trump called on Congress to pass a “fair version” of the Clarity Act, telling the crypto and finance executive attendees at the White House that market structure legislation is the next step in his administration’s digital asset agenda.

“Now we need Congress to take the next step by passing the Clarity Act, a fair version of the Clarity Act,” Trump said.

“It’s a very, very powerful structure legislation which will keep us ahead of China, keep us ahead of everyone else. We’ll open the door to the next wave of innovations and innovators.”

The legislation has stalled over a fight regarding ethics provisions. Trump urged the Senate to pass the bill, and the chamber is expected to take it up again when it returns in mid-September.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 10:40

FBI Seizes Eric Swalwell's Electronic Devices At San Francisco Airport Amid Sexual Misconduct Investigation

The FBI executed a search warrant against former congressman Eric Swalwell on Saturday after he landed at San Francisco Airport - seizing his electronic devices, including his cell phone, as part of a federal investigation into allegations of sexual misconduct, the Daily Mail reports.

According to the report:

The agents, armed with additional court-approved search warrants, then entered his house in Washington, D.C. on Sunday, seizing additional undisclosed potential evidence,  well-placed sources tell the Daily Mail.

Sources say Swalwell started his day Saturday in Washington, where he still maintains a residence with his wife and three children.

He headed to the airport later in the day and flew to his home state of California. The feds were waiting for him when he stepped off the plane.

According to sources, Swalwell was cooperative.

The following day, neither he nor his wife Brittany Watts were home when the feds rolled up to their property in Northeast DC.

The DOJ launched a criminal investigation into multiple sexual assault and misconduct allegations lodged against the California democrat. Meanwhile, the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office is investigating an alleged 2024 sexual assault in a New York City hotel room involving a former staffer, while the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department and District Attorney’s Office have opened inquiries into a separate 2018 claim. Prosecutors have been assigned to review evidence in the LA case.

Agents, armed with additional court-approved search warrants, also entered his house in Washington, DC on Sunday

Swalwell stepped down from congress in April amid bipartisan pressure and a House Ethics Committee probe into the claims, after the San Francisco Chronicle and CNN reported claims from a former staffer and three other women. The former aide accused Swalwell of sexually assaulting her on two occasions: once in 2019 while she was employed by him, and again in April 2024 after a gala event in New York, where she said she was too intoxicated to consent and attempted to refuse. Three additional women described unwanted explicit messages, unsolicited nude photos, and harassment, some occurring during his gubernatorial campaign.

Then a fifth woman, Lonna Drewes - a Beverly Hills-based former model and fashion software entrepreneur - held a news conference to detail her accusations. Drewes alleged that in July 2018, after meeting Swalwell socially and believing they were developing a friendship, he invited her to his West Hollywood hotel room under the pretense of picking up papers. She claimed he drugged her drink, raped her, and choked her until she lost consciousness. Drewes said she had only one glass of wine that evening and provided authorities with journal entries, texts, and photos as evidence. She has since reported the incident to law enforcement and stands with the other accusers.

Swalwell has denied all allegations. 

The incident comes on the heels of new evidence that Swalwell admitted to having sex with a suspected Chinese spy, who the FBI assessed was likely operating on behalf of China's Ministry of State Security.

Memos describe Christine Fang, known as Fang Fang (FBI codename 'Rusty Thumbs') cultivating Swalwell through sexual encounters, intern referrals into his congressional offices, and campaign contributions routed through American conduits to conceal her status as a prohibited foreign national. Investigators cleared Swalwell of criminal wrongdoing in 2017. Fang was never charged. 

During FBI interviews in 2015 and 2016, Swalwell acknowledged meeting Fang during his initial 2012 congressional campaign and admitted to multiple sexual encounters with her. He confirmed that Fang referred several interns to his campaign and congressional offices, explaining that he treated her referrals as coming from the Asian Pacific Islander American Public Affairs (APAPA) organization.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 10:25

North Korea Fires Barrage Of Missiles As Kim Plays Hard To Get, After Trump Overture

The South Korean government has observed an alarming new launch of a missile barrage by North Korea on Thursday, announcing that an unidentified projectile was fired off the peninsula's east coast on Thursday.

"The Joint Chiefs of Staff said the launches of about 10 short-range ballistic missiles happened from North Korea’s capital region around 5 p.m. (0800 GMT) on Thursday," the Associated Press details. "The military said the missiles flew about 300 kilometers (185 miles) each toward North Korea’s eastern waters."

via Reuters

"The military said South Korea has bolstered its surveillance posture and was closely coordinating information on the launches with the U.S. and Japan," AP adds based on the statement. "South Korea’s presidential national security council issued a statement urging North Korea to halt ballistic missile launches."

The new test is obviously meant to send a strong message, given it follows Pyongyang's dismissal of President Trump's decision to scale back US military exercises with South Korea this week.

Without doubt, Kim Jong-Un is welcoming the sudden attention from Trump, but if there's hope of rekindling the 'bromance' - this is basically Kim playing hard to get.

North Korea's stance is that simply scaling back the exercises doesn't make them any less provocative and less of a threat to its national security.

The North Korean strongman's influential sister has weighed in: "We think it’s not worth making comments on that and we have no interest in it at all," she said, as cited in state media. "The provocative, aggressive nature of the drills won’t change even though their duration and size were reduced," she added.

President Trump has been questioned by reporters on if there is currently an exchange of letters or any level of dialogue between Pyongyang and Washington. 

Kim Yo Jong as part of her statement denied that there's any communication: "If the U.S. calculates that it can propagate its recent measure as the one of so-called good faith, they will not get the desired answer," she also said.

However, there was this key caveat and positive remark in passing:

Kim Yo Jong's statement did not contain North Korea’s typically harsh rhetoric. She briefly said relations between her brother and Trump are "still excellent," mentioning her brother’s past comments that he still has "good memories" of Trump.

So there it is... Kim is playing hard to get while recalling all the fond memories. 

As for the White House, it probably needs a new distraction on the foreign policy front, given how much the Iran war has turned against Washington's favor. If another face-to-face Trump-Kim meeting actually materialized down the line, it would certainly take over the headlines, at least temporarily.

Q: You said North Korea has 57 nuclear weapons, is your goal denuclearization?

Trump: I don't want to talk about that but I have a good relationship with Kim Jong Un. I like him. I didn't like doing these exercises against North Korea pic.twitter.com/9q74leMwpZ

— Headquarters (@HQNewsNow) August 19, 2026

On Kim, Trump said this week: "The fact that I get along with him, that’s a good thing." He explained: "You can’t let Iran have a nuclear weapon. And I know Kim Jong Un very well, and he’s going to be fine as long as we have a smart president."

Suddenly everyone gains immediate respect when they achieve nukes - even the 'rogue' actors - which is something Tehran has no doubt long observed.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 10:15