Zero Rss

Iran Says No Plans For 2nd Talks After US Ship Seizure, Pakistanis Contradict, As Vance Flies To Islamabad Summary

• Hormuz latest: Just three ships have crossed in the past 12 hours, shipping data indicates.

• Iran's military after Sunday's US seizure of Iran-flagged cargo ship: will "take the necessary action against the US military"

• Vance will try again in Pakistan, though still unclear whether Iranians will join - Pakistanis say yes, but timeline is fluid.

• Xi to Saudi crown prince important phone call: "the first time the Chinese leader had called for the reopening of the strategically vital waterway."

//--> Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Yes 28% · No 72%
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Vance Delegation Already En Route To Pakistan

So it seems the second round of talks are actually on, after several recent contradictory headlines concerning Tehran's intent to send a team. As of Monday morning the Iranians have been signaling the cold shoulder, even as Pakistani officials quietly leak that their arrival is expected.

The NY Post freshly reports: "Vice President JD Vance and the US delegation to the peace talks here with Iran are en route to Pakistan and expected to land within hours, President Trump on Monday told The Post — adding that he was willing to meet with senior Iranian leaders if a breakthrough is reached."

"We’re supposed to have the talks," Trump said in an interview when asked whether talks or still happening of if they are falling apart. He added: "So I would assume at this point nobody's playing games." According to more:

The president confirmed that a high-level US delegation — including Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff and adviser Jared Kushner — is already en route to Islamabad for the next round of negotiations.

“They’re heading over now,” Trump said shortly after 9 a.m. EST. “They’ll be there tonight, [Islamabad] time.”

NBC notes that, "Further complicating the picture, different Iranian leaders are sending contradictory messages. The IRGC vowed revenge for the seizing of an Iranian cargo ship yesterday, even as Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian continued to emphasize diplomacy."

Shipping Traffic Halt Latest

Al Jazeera and others have written the strait is at a virtual standstill currently, after the major Sunday incident which saw the US Navy intercept, fire upon, and board an uncooperative ship which was trying to pass the US-imposed blockade. It was an Iranian-flagged ship which was forcibly stopped in the Gulf of Oman, where some dozen US warships have been patrolling.

Just three ships have crossed in the past 12 hours, shipping data indicates. The same publication records that "Oil products tanker Nero, which is under UK sanctions, has left the Gulf and is sailing through the strait, according to satellite analysis from data analytics specialists SynMax and tracking data from the Kpler platform." And: "Two other ships – a chemical tanker and a liquefied natural gas tanker – have also sailed into the Gulf through the critical waterway separately, the data showed."

Reuters: Senior Iranian official says positive efforts have been started by Pakistan to end the US blockade and ensure Iran's participation in talks.

On Monday a spokesman for Iran's military reiterated a threat to "take the necessary action against the US military" after the Sunday US interdiction. He described that that Iran's military exercised restraint over the incident, not taking immediate action, in order to protect the ship's crew, but will act "once it is ensured that the lives of the families and crew of the vessel attacked by the United States are safeguarded." Apparently the crew's family members are accompanying them aboard the vessel, the statement suggests.

⚡️ US military releases footage of “seizure of Iranian ship Touska in Strait of Hormuz” pic.twitter.com/d7qk7G5oeC

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) April 19, 2026 Important Xi Jinping Statement on Hormuz

China's President Xi Jinping on Monday demanded the uninterrupted passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz in a phone call with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, state news agency Xinhua reports. He urged the normalization of shipping traffic after about 50 days of disruption which obviously and significantly impacts Chinese oil imports.

"Normal navigation through the Strait of Hormuz should be maintained, this is in the shared interests of regional countries and the international community," Xi said. He called for an immediate, comprehensive ceasefire and insisted disputes be resolved through political and diplomatic means.

South China Morning Post observes that it was "the first time the Chinese leader had called for the reopening of the strategically vital waterway, which has been repeatedly blockaded since US-Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28." China imported 5.86 million tons of crude oil from Saudi Arabia, down 10% from February, according to customs data released Monday.

Second Pakistan Talks Imminent? 

After the Sunday dramatic US seizure of the Iranian-flagged ship, Iran's Foreign Ministry has said the country currently no plans regarding a new round of talks, however, it also said it is reviewing the latest Washington proposal related to a second round of Pakistan-hosted talks. With that, by Monday it reasserted that the transfer of enriched uranium out of the country or into US custody has never been on the table. Tehran is insisting that it won't be transferred anywhere.

This firm stance is after President dramatically shifted his tone over the weekend from strangely and surprisingly somewhat praising Iran's leadership (with statements such as the US could work with them and possibly trust them) to once up again ramping up threats, posting "No more Mr. Nice Guy" on social media. 

Currently there are conflicting reports on whether the Iranian side will actually be there for reported possible Tuesday talks. Pakistan officials say the timing of the talks remains fluid. According to the latest via Associated Press Iranian authorities have expressed willingness to send a delegation to Islamabad, citing two Pakistan officials. The officials reports "cautious optimism that delegations from both Iran and the United States could travel to Islamabad."

Some confused and conflicting signaling, likely purposely so...

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei:

We have no plans for the next round of negotiations. pic.twitter.com/CFb16qt8vM

— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 20, 2026

The NY Times has declared that JD Vance will try again:

The vice president is scheduled to lead an American delegation back to Islamabad, Pakistan, this week for another round of in-person negotiations with Iran after failing to secure a deal just over a week ago.

Whether the talks even occur seems in dispute. Hours after President Trump announced the trip on Sunday, Iranian state media said that Tehran had not yet agreed to any such meeting. Later, Mr. Trump announced that a Naval destroyer had attacked an Iranian-flagged cargo ship that tried to skirt the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz.

President Trump has been threatening major escalation should there be no negotiated settlement, at a moment the two sides' position are very distant especially on the nuclear issue.

Zero Sum Positions on Nuclear Issue

The problem, according to University of Chicago Professor Robert Pape is the zero sum logic of it all. "In a matter of a day, the system snapped back to escalation," he wrote over the weekend. "This is not a story about fragile diplomacy or poor sequencing. It is a story about zero-sum conflict, where the core issues cannot be divided, traded, or deferred without forcing one side to accept a strategic loss—a direct contest over relative power."

"At the center of the war is a fact that cannot be negotiated away: Iran either retains a nuclear capability on the threshold of weapons, or it does not," Pape continues. "There is no stable middle ground that satisfies both sides."

POTUS is laying out two courses of action—a negotiated settlement, or a major escalation.

There is a third option, and he should take it: recognize there is no way to force a positive outcome and simply leave.

The region is not ours to fix. President Reagan chose this path in… pic.twitter.com/5ovi05FdwE

— Joe Kent (@joekent16jan19) April 19, 2026

And more from the analysis: "The same zero-sum logic applies—more visibly and more immediately—to the Strait of Hormuz. Before the war, Hormuz functioned as a global commons, carrying roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. That assumption is now broken. Iran has demonstrated that it can shift from disruption to conditional control, allowing passage under its terms while restricting or denying access when it chooses. The United States, in response, is attempting to preserve open navigation through blockade and interdiction. But these positions cannot be reconciled."

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 09:35

AST SpaceMobile Craters After Blue Origin Rocket Fails To Place Satellite In Correct Orbit

Shares of AST SpaceMobile plunged the most since February after Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket failed to place the company's BlueBird 7 satellite into its intended orbit during Sunday morning's launch.

Shortly after the successful launch of New Glenn from the launchpad at Cape Canaveral, Florida, early Sunday, Blue Origin said the rocket's payload, the BlueBird 7 satellite, was placed into an "off-nominal orbit."

pic.twitter.com/BMAUIwF5jk

— Dave Limp (@davill) April 19, 2026

In other words, "off-nominal orbit" means that the BlueBird 7 satellite is not at the correct altitude, speed, or trajectory it was supposed to be in.

We have official confirmation that $ASTS BlueBird 7 is powered on, but sitting in an off-nominal orbit. The teams are working the problem.

Before th overreacts, look at the underlying mechanics:
▪️​Payload survived and is
communicating.
​▪️New Glenn GS1 booster reuse was… https://t.co/exY3JtJF43 pic.twitter.com/sYWsnP4nUB

— Karol Kozicki (@k2__investment) April 19, 2026

AST SpaceMobile published a statement saying the satellite's incorrect placement is "too low to sustain operations" and that it would be deorbited in the near term.

However, New Glenn's first stage successfully returned to Earth and landed on a barge in the Atlantic Ocean for the first time, marking a major accomplishment for Blue Origin's new era of reusable rockets.

pic.twitter.com/0WzaWjjjL9

— Jeff Bezos (@JeffBezos) April 19, 2026

William Blair analyst Louie DiPalma told clients, "AST gained experience integrating its satellite with New Glenn and working with the Blue Origin team," adding, "The silver lining is that there was only one satellite on board, whereas future New Glenn launches may have as many as eight of AST's BlueBirds."

AST SpaceMobile shares cratered in premarket trading in New York, down as much as 14%. If premarket declines hold into the cash session, this would mark the worst session since February 12's 15% drop. The decline would wipe out much of this year's year-to-date gains of about 18% as of Friday's close.

The good news is that two U.S. private companies, SpaceX and Blue Origin, have achieved reusable rockets, something China's entire aerospace industry cannot.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 09:15

3 LA County Residents Charged In Luxury Car Insurance Scam Involving Bear Suit

Authored by Dylan Morgan via The Epoch Times,

Three Los Angeles County residents were charged on April 16 with insurance fraud involving a bear suit and luxury vehicles.

A fourth awaits trial.

The California Department of Insurance said the defendants used a person in a bear suit to stage fake attacks on their luxury vehicles, then submitted fraudulent claims for payouts to insurance companies that totaled around $142,000.

“What may have looked unbelievable turned out to be exactly that—and now those responsible are being held accountable,” Insurance Department Commissioner Ricardo Lara said.

“My Department’s investigators uncovered the facts, exposed this scam, and helped bring these defendants to justice. Insurance fraud is a serious crime that drives up costs for consumers, and no scheme is too outrageous for us to investigate.”

The department said the investigation began when an insurance company flagged a suspicious claim where the defendants said a bear entered their 2010 Rolls-Royce Ghost in Lake Arrowhead, California, on Jan. 28, 2024, and caused interior damage.

Alongside the claim, the defendants submitted security camera footage that showed a “bear” rummaging through the car’s interior and included photos of scratch marks on car doors and seats.

Department detectives determined the “bear” was a person wearing a bear costume.

Investigators later discovered two more fraudulent claims submitted to separate insurance companies with the same date and location, but tied to a 2015 Mercedes G63 AMG and a 2022 Mercedes E350.

These claims also included similar “bear attack” videos from security cameras shot in the same driveway of a “bear” going through the two Mercedes vehicles, and were also accompanied by photos of interior scratches.

The Department of Insurance said to further verify, it had a biologist from the California Department of Fish and Wildlife review the video, who said the “bear” in the footage was clearly a human in a bear suit.

Detectives later executed a search warrant in the suspects’ home and found a bear suit.

The four Los Angeles County residents involved were arrested on Nov. 13, 2024, and charged with insurance fraud and conspiracy. 

All three convicted defendants were sentenced to 180 days in jail to be served through a weekend jail program.

Alfiya Zuckerman, 39, of Valley Village, was ordered to pay around $55,000 in restitution. Ruben Tamrazian, 26, of Glendale, was ordered to pay around $52,000. Vahe Muradkhanyan, 32, of Glendale, has yet to have his restitution set.

The fourth defendant, Ararat Chirkinian, 39, of Glendale, will have a preliminary hearing in court in September.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 09:00

Futures Slide As Oil Jumps On Ceasefire Setbacks, Nasdaq In Danger Of Ending 13-Day Streak

Futures are lower, but well off session lows,after a weekend of chaos in the Strait of Hormuz cast doubt over US-Iran peace talks ahead of Tuesday’s ceasefire expiration. On Saturday, Iran said the Strait will be closed until the US blockade is lifted, with ships reporting attacks. The US then fired and seized an Iranian-flagged ship on Sunday. Both headlines point to a re-escalation, as Iran military has now vowed to retaliate. It remains unclear whether the peace talks will continue ahead of the April 22nd deadline: POLITICO yesterday reported that Trump will continue peace talks with Iran in Pakistan on Monday, while Iran said in a news conference that they have “no plan” for next round of negotiation (here), although subsequent reports from AP indicated the opposite. There’s a big earnings week ahead, and top Wall Street strategists expect resilient numbers to support equities. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.5% following a succession of record highs; the Nasdaq is down 0.4% and set to end a near-record stretch of 13 consecutive gains. Pre-market, Mag 7 are all lower with NVDA (-1.2%), MSFT (-1.0%) and META (-1.0%) being the notable laggards. European stocks slid 1.1% while Asian stocks rose in a delayed catch up to the Friday melt up in the US. Bond yields rose sharply in Europe, whereas the moves in Treasuries were more modest. The dollar was little changed, erasing an earlier gain. WTI crude oil jumped $4.6 (or 5.5%) to $88.5; both base metals and precious metals are lower with gold briefly dropping below $4,800 an ounce, before recovering. The US session is quiet for scheduled data, while Fed’s external communications blackout period has now begun ahead of the April 29 policy announcement. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks were mostly lower (Apple unchanged, Tesla -0.7%, Alphabet -1%, Amazon -1%, Meta -0.9%, Microsoft -0.8%, Nvidia -0.9%)

• Airlines and cruise operators are down as the prospects of fuel prices staying at elevated levels weigh on sentiment. American Airlines (AAL) -3%, Carnival (CCL) -2%.
• Energy stocks are rising as US-Iran tensions flare up over the weekend. Chevron (CVX) +1%.
• Psychedelic-related stocks rally after President Donald Trump signed an executive order to expedite research and access to the substances used outside the US to treat post-traumatic stress disorder. AtaiBeckley (ATAI) +27%.
• AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) drops 14% after Blue Origin’s flagship New Glenn rocket failed to correctly place a satellite made by the Texas-based company in its intended orbit.
• Avis Budget (CAR) drops 2% as Barclays downgrades to underweight following the stock’s near-vertical recent rally.
• Fermi Inc. (FRMI) falls 19% after the power company said its chief executive officer and chief financial officers have stepped down as the firm tries to secure its first customer.
• Marvell Technology (MRVL) rises 5% after the Information reported that Google is in discussions with the semiconductor company to develop two new chips to run AI models more efficiently.
• TopBuild Corp. (BLD) rises 18% after QXO Inc. said it’s acquiring the insulation company for about $17 billion. The acquisition will make QXO the second-largest publicly traded building products distributor in North America.
• USA Rare Earth (USAR) gains 4% after agreeing to acquire Brazil’s Serra Verde Group in a cash-and-stock transaction, adding to a string of recent deals in the industry.

In other corporate news, regulators across Asia are stepping up scrutiny of cybersecurity risks in their financial systems, as concerns over Anthropic PBC’s latest AI model Mythos spread. Blue Origin’s flagship New Glenn rocket launched to space on its third flight, reusing a booster for the first time but failing to correctly place the satellite it was carrying into its intended orbit. In deals, American Airlines said it’s not engaged with or interested in any discussions regarding a merger with United Airlines. QXO said it’s acquiring insulation firm TopBuild for about $17 billion, making it the second-largest publicly traded building products distributor in North America. Patrick Industries and rival recreational-vehicle supplier LCI Industries are in talks to combine.

Monday’s risk-off moves are denting a rally that had erased all of the war-driven losses in US stocks. President Donald Trump and Iranian officials offered disparate views on the next stage of the war, leaving it unclear whether the sides would meet for talks on Tuesday, with a truce set to expire shortly. Sentiment was dented after oil and natural gas prices jumped as Hormuz remained closed early Monday. Iran initially said ships could pass before abruptly stopping traffic less than 24 hours later, while the US Navy fired upon and boarded an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman. The energy crisis is rippling out in various ways. The WSJ reported that the UAE is said to be in talks with the US about a financial backstop in case the Iran war plunges the country into further crisis. The EU is planning to propose measures to “optimize” jet fuel distribution among member states, while China is becoming more dependent on the US for ethane gas. And traders are reassessing their playbooks as the war forces governments to become more self reliant.

Traders believe pressure on both parties to reach a deal remains high, even as volatility during negotiations is likely to be elevated. Iran’s state-run news agency cited President Masoud Pezeshkian as saying the war was in no one’s interest and that diplomatic avenues should be used to lower tensions.

“While the developments from the weekend certainly cooled the optimism, it did not derail it completely,” said Stephan Kemper, chief investment strategist at BNP Paribas Wealth Management. “Markets keep expecting a near-term solution which will allow energy to flow again.”

Technology stocks took a breather on Monday after the sector drove much of the rebound in US equities, with the Magnificent Seven up 20% since the US benchmark hit its 2026 bottom on March 30. Despite the re-escalation in the Middle East, top strategists say the market can keep rallying despite the turmoil. JPMorgan’s Mislav Matejka disagrees with bearish views that revolve around stagflation and expects resilient earnings to keep supporting the market. Ben Snider at Goldman Sachs says strong but narrow positive earnings revisions support a narrow market rally, while Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson notes that early 1Q results have been strong and the earnings recovery is intact.

The earnings season, meanwhile, has been off to a strong start. S&P 500 companies that have pusblished their results so far have seen their profits come in 11% above expectations, on aggregate, data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence showed.  Major companies releasing earnings this week include Tesla Inc. and Boeing Co. on Wednesday, followed by Intel Corp. the following day. The economic impact of seven weeks of war in the Middle East will also begin to emerge this week when purchasing manager indexes are published Thursday. “Earnings season is supportive and does matter, but the dominant driver is geopolitics. Once a deal is reached, attention will shift back to earnings,” said Patrik Lang, chief investment strategist at Global Gate Asset Management. “The strength may be somewhat concentrated, as much of the growth continues to come from the Magnificent Seven.”

While the situation in the Middle East remains in flux, traders will also focus on Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation hearing this week to lead the Federal Reserve. The US two-year yield is once again below the central bank’s 3.75% ceiling after trading above the level for much of the war.

Besides Warsh's Tuesday Senate confirmation hearing, in economic data, March retail sales are due Tuesday, with economists projecting a sizable jump in overall retail sales mainly due to sharply increased spending on gasoline. PPI is due on Thursday, followed by the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for April on Fridat. The preliminary reading set a record low.

The jump in energy prices hit Europe, where the Stoxx 600 falls 1%. Airlines are the biggest losers and cyclical shares such as autos, banks and consumer products are also among notable laggards. The energy sector is outperforming. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:

• Wacker Chemie advances as much as 2.5% after the company’s preliminary first-quarter Ebitda came in 18% ahead of consensus expectations.
• Stocks related to photonics technology for AI data centers soared on Monday, with Soitec and Riber in France and UK-listed IQE up more than 10%, as a rally in the sector extended further.
• Renishaw shares rise as much as 9.7% as the UK industrial instrumentation company lifts its full-year revenue and pre-tax profit guidance.
• Plus500 shares rise as much as 4% after the trading platform said annual revenue and earnings should come in ahead of current expectations.
• Advanced Medical Solutions shares rally as much as 19% after the maker of surgical and wound care products confirmed it is in discussions with TA Associates regarding a possible takeover offer.
• Sanofi shares fall as much as 2.2% as BNP Paribas downgrades the French pharmaceutical stock to neutral from outperform on revised pipeline assumptions.
• Loomis shares fall as much as 7.3% after Goldman Sachs cut its recommendation to neutral from buy, saying that while good growth and profits are expected to continue in the near term, it is mostly priced into the market.
• Odfjell Drilling shares drop as much as 7.3% after the company halted production at its Deepsea Atlantic facility following an incident where the rig’s blowout preventer fell to the seabed at an approximate depth of 1,100 meters.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose as investors shrugged off heightened tensions between the US and Iran to focus on prospects for further talks down the road, as well as strong local tech earnings. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.8% before paring most of its advance. SK Hynix and Tencent were among the top positive contributors. Stocks in Hong Kong led gains in the region, while South Korean shares erased their Iran war losses. While weekend hostilities cast doubt on when another round of Middle East negotiations may take place, risk sentiment has rebounded over the past couple of weeks. Earnings from Korean memory chipmaker SK Hynix due Thursday are among key upcoming catalysts for the tech trade. As global gauges rebound and touch new highs one by one, however, some investors are cautious about being too optimistic.

“The clock is ticking, and it’s still unclear whether this relief rally has legs or if it’s simply a dead‑cat bounce,” said Sophie Huynh, a portfolio manager and strategist for dynamic asset allocation at BNP Paribas Asset Management. “Since the ceasefire, there has been no increase in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which makes the market’s ability to shrug off the Iran conflict hard to justify.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index adds 0.1%. The Aussie dollar and yen are the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.2% each. The Norwegian krone outperforms

In rates, treasuries are slightly cheaper across the curve, with yields partially reversing an opening gap higher after weekend developments from the Middle East cast doubt on the prospects for peace talks ahead of a looming ceasefire deadline. Meanwhile, US Navy carried out its first seizure of an Iranian vessel in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil futures are subsequently higher with Treasury yields, while S&P futures are down on the day. US yields cheaper by 1.5bp to 2.5bp across the curve with spreads broadly trading within a basis point of Friday session close. US 10-year yields traded around 4.27% with bunds and gilts lagging by 2bp and 4bp in the sector. European government bonds also underperform, with UK and German 10-year yields rising 4 bps and 3 bps respectively. US 10-year borrowing costs climb 1 bp. IG dollar issuance slate includes a couple of deals already. This week, syndicate desks anticipate sales around $20 billion to $25 billion, likely led by regional banks along with corporates coming out of their earnings blackout periods. Treasury auctions this week include $13 billion 20-year bond reopening on Wednesday and $26 billion 5-year TIPS Thursday. US economic data calendar slate empty for the session.

In commodities, Brent crude futures rise 5% to around $95 a barrel after weekend developments cast doubt on the prospects for US-Iran peace talks. Precious metals slide, with spot silver down around 2%. Bitcoin rises back above $75,000. 

US session quiet for scheduled data, while Fed’s external communications blackout period has now begun ahead of the April 29 policy announcement. 

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.5%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.5%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.8%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -1%
• DAX -1.4%
• CAC 40 -1%
• 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.26%
• VIX +2.1 points at 19.59
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.1% at 1194.19
• euro little changed at $1.1761
• WTI crude +5.9% at $88.79/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Oil climbed and equity futures dropped after the US seized an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel and Tehran again closed the Strait of Hormuz, clouding prospects for peace talks.
• An Iranian delegation will arrive in Islamabad on Tuesday, despite Tehran’s statements that it had no intention of sending its negotiators while the US navy is continuing a blockade of its ports. Nikkei
• US gas prices may remain at $3 per gallon or more until next year, contradicting Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s prediction of relief by the summer. BBG
• China’s set to import a record volume of US ethane in April as petrochemical producers seek alternative feedstocks due to the Iran war. Shipments may rise to 800,000 tons, JLC said, around 60% higher than average. BBG
• There is a newfound sense of anxiety amongst battleground Republicans that their Senate majority isn’t as safe as they once thought. Democrats still face steep odds in their bid to flip the chamber, but there is persistent concern that the longer the Iran war drags on and the economy sputters, the more it could complicate their path to keeping their majority in November. Politico
• China sent a group of warships to hold drills in the western Pacific Ocean, a move that comes as Japan joins massive exercises with the US and the Philippines for the first time. BBG
• Google is in discussions with Marvell to develop two new chips to run AI models more efficiently. The Information
• A weekend hack triggered a crisis of confidence among crypto investors, with users pulling billions from DeFi’s biggest lending platform. BBG
• Warsh believes AI will trigger a productivity boom that keeps growth at a healthy level and allows the Fed to cut rates, but many of his future colleagues are skeptical of this thesis. WSJ

Iran News Wrap

• Iran reversed the brief reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and said the waterway had returned to “strict control” after accusing the US of not meeting its obligations and refusing to lift the blockade on Iranian ports, with at least three attacks reported on commercial ships following the re-closure, including Iranian gunboats firing on a tanker and an attack on a cargo vessel near the strait that damaged containers on board.
• US President Trump said on Saturday that Iran got “a little cute” by closing the Strait again, but added there were still “very good conversations” going on.
• US President Trump announced on Sunday an Iranian-flagged cargo ship named TOUSKA tried to get past the US naval blockade, but the Navy Guided Missile Destroyer USS SPRUANCE intercepted it in the Gulf of Oman and gave a warning to stop. The Iranian crew refused, after which the US Navy ship disabled the vessel by blowing a hole in the engine room. Trump added that US Marines have custody of the vessel, and they are seeing what’s on board. It was separately reported that Mehr News Agency claimed US forces fired on an Iranian merchant ship to force it to return to territorial waters, but were then forced to flee after the rapid response of IRGC naval units.
• US President Trump posted on Sunday that “Iran decided to fire bullets yesterday in the Strait of Hormuz – A Total Violation of our Ceasefire Agreement!”, while Trump stated that his representatives are going to Islamabad and will be there on Monday evening for negotiations.
• US President Trump said VP JD Vance, Special Envoy Witkoff and Jared Kushner will head to Islamabad, Pakistan, for fresh talks with Iran, and will arrive on Monday evening, according to a White House official.
• A US senior official said that if there is no breakthrough soon, the Iran war could resume in the coming days, and that the situation with Iran is at a critical point.
• Pakistan Army Chief Munir spoke to President Trump and told him that the Hormuz blockade is a hurdle to talks, according to a Pakistani security source cited by Reuters; Trump reportedly told Munir that he would consider his advice.
• Iran will send a delegation to a second round of talks with the US despite the latest escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, Anadolu Agency reported, citing two Pakistani sources.
• Pakistani Journalist Mallick posted "To my understanding, regardless of the statements and posturing, the second round of talks in Islamabad are to go ahead as per schedule and what is that schedule, only the parties know about the exact schedule."
• Iran parliament's national security and foreign policy commission head said the decision has been made to continue talks with US, but this does not mean negotiation at any cost; delegation may travel to Pakistan if positive signals received from the US
• Pakistan has intensified diplomatic contacts since Sunday with Washington and Tehran to ensure talks proceed as soon as Tuesday, AP reported.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said no decision has been made regarding participation in the new round of negotiations, Al Araby reported; the past week witnessed numerous diplomatic developments focused on negotiations to end the war. He further said that if the US or Israel launches new aggression, Iran’s armed forces will respond accordingly; Tehran has not received any serious offer regarding lifting sanctions on it.
• Iranian lawmaker said he doesn’t expect any deal with the US and believes even if there is a ceasefire, it won’t last.
• Iran’s Supreme Leader said Iran’s navy is ready to inflict “new bitter defeats” on its enemies.
• Iranian Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref said the security of the Strait of Hormuz is not free, while he added it is impossible to restrict Iranian oil exports and, at the same time, pretend to provide free protection to others. Furthermore, he said "The choice is clear: either a free oil market for all, or risk incurring enormous costs that will affect everyone".
• Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister said there will be no further in-person peace talks with the US until Washington changes its “maximalist” demands, while the official added Iran would not hand over its enriched uranium to the US. Furthermore, IRNA also reported that Tehran has not agreed to participate in a second round of talks.
• Iran’s Security Council said it is reviewing proposals made by the US in recent days, and Iran is determined to maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz until the war ends, while it was stated that Iran will not reopen the Strait as long as the US blockade of Iranian ports is in place.
• Iranian senior official said that significant differences remained between Iran and the US, including on nuclear issues and that serious talks are required, according to a report on Friday.
• Iranian Harat Khatam Al-Anbiya Central HQ spokesperson said the US attack on the Iranian commercial ship violates the ceasefire, and warned Iran will soon respond and retaliate to this armed piracy.
• Iranian sources told CNN that the Iranian delegation is expected to arrive in Pakistan on Tuesday, according to Al Hadath.
• Iran has yet to agree to another round of talks with the US, according to Iranian press. It was also reported that Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister said Iran will respond with full force if they return to war, while Iranian state media separately reported on Sunday evening that Tehran was not currently planning to take part in new talks with the US.
• Iranian source said given US President Trump’s remarks about talks and the contradiction with what is actually unfolding between Iran and the US, they believe they are facing trickery by the adversary and are on the brink of a fresh wave of escalation, according to Al Jazeera.
• Iranian senior official denied US President Trump’s claims and said that Iran did not agree to halt uranium enrichment indefinitely, while they will not accept being an exception to international law.
• Pakistani media sources said gaps between the US and Iran have been narrowed in recent days, according to Al Hadath.
• More than 20 vessels passed the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, which is the highest number since March 1st, according to Kpler data. It was separately reported that an Iranian oil tanker broke through the US blockade and entered Iranian waters, according to CCTV.
• N13 reported, citing an Israeli senior official, that Israel has a "red line" related to ballistic missiles; should Iran cross this red line, then Israel has no choice but to respond.
• IDF confirmed it carried out the first strikes against Hezbollah since the ceasefire and that the strikes were against Hezbollah operatives who violated the ceasefire understandings.
• UAE opened talks with the US about obtaining a financial backstop in case the Iran war plunges it into a deeper crisis, according to US officials cited by WSJ. Furthermore, it was reported that UAE informed Washington it will be forced to sell its oil in yuan if it is not supplied with enough dollars.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly higher as the region shrugged off the escalatory geopolitical headlines from over the weekend, including the re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on several vessels by Iran, while US President Trump announced that the US Navy intercepted an Iranian-flagged vessel and blew a hole in the engine room after it attempted to get past the US blockade. This resulted in a spike in oil prices at the reopen and saw US index futures decline, although asset classes have faded the extremes as focus turns to talks in Islamabad, with President Trump sending negotiators for talks with Iran, although there is no confirmation yet on whether Iran will attend. ASX 200 traded little changed amid the mixed price action in commodity-related stocks and with financials subdued after NAB flagged a spike in impairments due to the Middle East conflict. Nikkei 225 rallied with the index briefly returning to the 59,000 level following the recent unwinding of April rate hike bets, and with the index unfazed by the rise in oil prices. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were higher amid earnings updates, but with further upside capped by a lack of macro catalysts, while the PBoC provided no surprises as it announced China's benchmark LPRs were maintained at their current levels for the eleventh consecutive month.

Top Asian News

• Earthquake with preliminary magnitude of 7.4 reported off the coast of Japan, with a tsunami warning issued, NHK reports

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.9%) start the first trading week under pressure, as geopolitics continue to drive price action. Over the weekend, Iran (yet again) closed the Strait of Hormuz after accusing the US of not meeting its obligations, while an Iranian-flagged ship was struck by the US Navy. The DAX 40 is under the most pressure, while higher energy prices provide a floor for the FTSE 100. European sectors highlight the negative bias. Cyclicals such as Travel & Leisure, Autos and Banks sit at the bottom of the pile, while defensives such as Utilities outperform, with Energy also showing a strong performance amid the rise in crude prices.

Top European News

• German PPI MoM (Mar) M/M 2.5% vs Exp. 1.4% (Prev. -0.5%)
• German PPI YoY (Mar) Y/Y -0.2% (Prev. -3.3%)
• UK Rightmove House Prices Y/Y (Apr) -0.9% (Prev. -0.2%)

Trade/Tariffs

• China's March rare earth magnet exports to the US fell 9.5% M/M and its rare earth magnet exports to Japan fell by 17.3% M/M.

FX

• G10 FX are displaying a modest risk-off bias today, with DXY higher by a tenth and high beta underperforming after geopolitical escalation over the weekend (Please refer to the European opening news).
• USD is the best performer as the preferred haven during this conflict, with energy prices also elevated, around USD 96/bbl for Brent. The domestic calendar is light, DXY is likely to be catalysed by Middle East Updates. Note, the Fed entered its blackout window on 18th April ahead of its 29th April confab.
• GBP digests domestic political updates, with the Sun reporting that Manchester Mayor Burnham met with Former UK Deputy PM Rayner on Friday. This fuelled speculation that the two are plotting to overthrow PM Starmer, who is on a weak footing following the Mandelson revelations (PM speaks at 15:30 BST on Mandelson’s vetting). Fortunately for UK assets, few expect any movement from the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP, the body with power to oust the PM), according to POLITICO. MUFG writes: "So far the negative impact on the pound has been limited, but UK political developments have the potential to trigger a sharper sell-off in the month ahead”. GBP prefers to focus on geopolitical developments with Brent +6-7% on the day. EURGBP trades 0.1% higher, while Cable is 0.1% lower.
• JPY is one of the worst performers in the G10 space as USD/JPY continues to creep towards the critical 160 level. In a note on Sunday, Barclays said it shifted its BoJ hike forecast to June from April, following harsh (For the BoJ) repricing at the beginning of last week amid a lack of hawkish commentary from Ueda. This morning, NHK reported a preliminary 7.4 magnitude earthquake off the north-east coast of Japan. A three-meter-high wave warning was issued for the northern region; no impact on Japanese assets.

Central Banks

• BoJ is reportedly likely to keep rates on hold at April's meeting, Reuters reported citing sources.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed benchmarks are broadly in the red, given the recent surge in energy prices, after Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend and fired at three commercial vessels. (Please see the Newsquawk feed for a full geopolitical overview). Now markets await potential second round talks between US-Iran – some reports have suggested both sides will be in the region on Tuesday. As it stands, newsflow on whether the talks will actually take place is mixed; the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman suggested that no decision has been made on whether the talks will happen. On the yield front, a clear bear flattening is seen in the curve; a bias which has continued to play out throughout periods of escalation between US-Iran.
• JGBs traded with mild gains overnight, bucking the trend seen across peers. Potentially just catching up to the considerable upside seen in fixed benchmarks on Friday (following the opening of the Strait), and also as traders price out the chance of an April hike at the BoJ. Senior rate strategist at SMBC said “the market's main scenario appears to be that a rate hike will be put off next week”, but he highlighted that Ueda could signal a shift in stance at April’s presser.
• USTs are off by around 7 ticks, and currently trade at the lower end of a 111-12+ to 111-18 range; but still holding around the mid-point of Friday’s range of 111-04 to 111-23. Essentially, markets have not entirely discounted the strength seen in US paper following Iran’s brief opening of the Strait. The US 2yr remains around 3.75%, which has proven to be a point of support for in the past week. US domestic docket ahead is particularly thin, with no US data/Fed speak scheduled.
• Bunds are lower by around 40 ticks, and trading towards the bottom of a 125.66 to 125.89 range. Once again moving at the whim of geopolitical developments/higher energy prices; the GE 2s10s is a touch wider once again, but residing near the lows seen on Friday. Geopols aside, focus has been on the ECB, where a few policymakers spoke over the weekend/late-Friday. Demarco and Kazaks suggested that they were comfortable with bets of two hikes this year, whilst Kocher warned against pre-emptive ECB rate action on uncertainty. Sticking with the ECB, a recent survey of monetary policy experts by the OMFIF suggested that former ECB member de Cos is the “most qualified candidate” in the race to succeed President Lagarde.
• Gilts lag vs peers. UK paper has continuously seen bouts of underperformance when oil prices rise, given its high dependence on external energy. But also adding to the downbeat narrative is domestic politics, with continued focus on PM Starmer’s future. The Sun reported that Manchester Mayor Burnham met with Former Deputy PM Rayner on Friday, which has fuelled rumours of the pair launching a leadership challenge. Gilts currently trade down by around 66 ticks and at the lower end of a 88.44 to 88.72 range.

Commodities

• In geopolitics, Iran re-closed the Strait of Hormuz, stating it will remain under strict control and will not reopen while the US blockade of its ports continues, with multiple reported attacks on commercial vessels following the move. Tensions escalated after US Marines seized the Iranian-flagged cargo ship TOUSKA as it attempted to breach the blockade, while President Trump said a separate Iranian vessel was intercepted and disabled after ignoring warnings. Iran condemned the seizure as piracy and warned it would retaliate, as both sides accused each other of violating the ceasefire. Meanwhile, uncertainty persists around US-Iran talks, with Washington planning fresh negotiations in Pakistan, although Tehran has not confirmed participation and significant gaps remain, particularly over nuclear terms and control of the Strait. More recently, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said no decision has been made regarding participation in the new round of negotiations. Elsewhere, the Pakistani Army Chief told US President Trump that the Hormuz blockade is a hurdle in talks, to which Trump responded that he would consider his advice.
• Oil jumped as a result, with Brent climbing back above USD 95/bbl, reversing most of Friday’s decline (currently in a USD 94.33–97.50/bbl range) after the waterway’s brief reopening. WTI June trades in a USD 86.46–89.60/bbl range. Upside has been facilitated by the aforementioned escalation, with additional support following comments from the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson indicating no decision has yet been made on talks with the US. That said, gains are somewhat capped by ongoing efforts to bring the US and Iran back to the table ahead of the ceasefire expiry on Wednesday (UK time). European natural gas prices also rose, with Dutch TTF futures briefly moving back above EUR 43/MWh after Iran shut the Strait again.
• Spot gold and silver declined as the renewed disruption in Hormuz stoked inflation concerns tied to an energy supply shock and cast further doubt over efforts to end the conflict, with bullion slipping below USD 4,800/oz but currently off worst levels. Spot gold is trading in a USD 4,736–4,814/oz range.
• Copper retreated from its highest close since early February. Iron ore bucked the broader trend and rose overnight, with reports noting firm Chinese demand ahead of the May Day holidays and tight near-term supply. 3M LME copper trades in a USD 13,204.90–13,375.28/t range at the time of writing.
• Qatari sources say it may take up to five years to repair damaged gas facilities.
• Iraq reportedly resumes Southern Oil exports after a month-long halt due to Strait of Hormuz disruption, one tanker begins loading, according to four energy sources cited by Reuters.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Ukraine's Drone Force Commander says Russia's Tuapse oil refinery was struck overnight.

US Event Calendar

• US session quiet for scheduled data, while Fed’s external communications blackout period has now begun ahead of the April 29 policy announcement. 

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As the war in Iran enters its 8th week, recent developments can be framed in two ways: either five steps forward towards peace and three back (seems more apt than three and two), or as evidence that the two sides remain far enough apart that a lasting deal will be extremely hard to achieve and markets have become far too optimistic. I lean more towards the former, but the comparison with recent history is uncomfortable. Remember the 10%+ S&P 500 rally in the early weeks of the war in Ukraine, when hopes briefly grew of an early negotiated settlement, only to be disappointed. That episode is a clear warning sign.

That said, the political calculus around Iran may be different. According to Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin, President Trump’s approval rating dipped notably after the war began but appears to have stabilised since the two-week ceasefire was announced on 7 April—possibly reflecting the subsequent fall in petrol prices. A renewed deterioration in negotiations would therefore be unlikely to help approval ratings if oil and gas prices were to rise again.

The headline news over the weekend was Iran stating that the Strait of Hormuz was shut less than 24 hours after indicating on Friday that it would reopen. Shipping through the strait has now again ground to a halt after picking up on Saturday. On Friday afternoon in London, Polymarket had priced the probability of Strait traffic returning to normal by the end of May as high as 84%. That has now fallen back to around 63%, close to last Thursday’s level, but still well above the 37% probability priced this time last week.

The current ceasefire is due to expire at some point on Wednesday. President Trump struck a more hawkish tone yesterday, posting that while his negotiators will be in Islamabad for talks tonight (with possible talks reported for Tuesday), if Iran does not accept the deal on the table the US will “knock out every single power plant and every single bridge in Iran”. Iran’s state TV reported last night that Iran has “no plans for now to participate” in another round of talk with the US. Meanwhile, we heard that the US Navy had intercepted and boarded an Iranian cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman, marking the first such seizure since the US announced its blockade of Iranian shipping.

This backdrop has meant that markets this morning have reversed a good chunk of Friday’s moves. Brent crude is up +5.61% to $95.45/bbl after a -9.07% decline on Friday, leaving it at levels seen around the middle of last week. The extent of the reversal has been more partial outside of oil, with S&P 500 futures down -0.60% (+1.20% Friday), while 10yr Treasuries yield are +2.0bps higher (-6.3bps Friday).

Asian equity markets are surprisingly resilient this morning although they were long closed by the time the positive headlines came through on Friday. Across the region, the KOSPI is leading the charge with a +1.00% gain, with the the Hang Seng (+0.84%) slightly outperforming its mainland Chinese counterparts, namely the CSI (+0.54%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.67%). The Nikkei (+0.71%) is also firm.

In terms of the week ahead, in the US, the main event in a quiet week for data and for Fedspeak given the media blackout has now started, comes tomorrow morning at 10:00am ET, when Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s nominee to become the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, appears before the Senate Banking Committee for his confirmation hearing. Although Warsh has said little publicly since being nominated, his earlier remarks offer important clues. He has previously argued that the US economy faces powerful disinflationary forces stemming from deregulation and the rapid diffusion of artificial intelligence, a mix that should ultimately allow interest rates to move lower. That narrative is likely to feature prominently in his testimony. However, the economic backdrop has shifted in recent months, making the case for near term easing less straightforward. The labour market has stabilised, inflation measures such as PCE have surprised to the upside, and the conflict in Iran has introduced renewed upside risks to prices via energy channels. See our economists' latest forecasts here from the end of last week where they have removed the one cut in 2026 that they previously had.

While Warsh has spoken in favour of rate reductions over time, he is not generally viewed as structurally dovish. If anything, his instincts have historically leaned more hawkish than many of his peers’. The delicate balancing act on Tuesday will be how he frames a longer-term desire to lower rates while acknowledging that current conditions do not necessarily justify imminent cuts. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s recent comment that he would “understand if the Fed needs to wait on rate cuts” may give Warsh some political cover, allowing him to argue that temporary inflation risks require near term vigilance before policy can ease later on.

Beyond rates, senators are likely to probe Warsh on several other fronts. He has long been critical of the Fed’s balance sheet policies, though expectations of rapid change have faded, with consensus now favouring a gradual approach that first requires regulatory adjustments to reduce banks’ demand for reserves — a view shared by several current Fed officials. He is also expected to revisit his criticism of forward guidance, particularly its detailed use outside of crisis periods, potentially signalling a desire to simplify how the Fed communicates policy intentions. Fed independence will loom large too, especially at a time when inflation has remained above target for an extended period, oil prices have surged again, and political pressure to cut rates has intensified. Even assuming Warsh ultimately secures confirmation, risks remain, with Senator Thom Tillis reiterating that he intends to block progress on Fed appointments until the Department of Justice investigation into Chair Powell is resolved.
With Fed officials in their pre meeting communications blackout, economic data will do what it can to fill the void. Tomorrow also brings the most important release of the week in the form of March retail sales. Headline sales are expected to rebound by 1.2% month on month (DB forecast), up from 0.6% previously, helped by a recovery in auto sales. Excluding autos, sales are forecast to rise by a still solid 0.8%, compared with 0.5% last month, though much of that strength is likely to reflect higher petrol prices rather than a broad resurgence in discretionary spending. The retail control group, which feeds directly into GDP calculations, is expected to grow by a more modest 0.2%, down from 0.5% previously, suggesting that underlying goods demand remains steady but unspectacular.

Later in the week, Thursday brings a handful of releases that will help round out the picture. Initial jobless claims are expected to edge up to 210,000 from 207,000, a move that will be watched closely as the data coincide with the survey window for April’s employment report. While monthly payroll numbers have been volatile, most broader measures point to a labour market that has largely stabilised over the past year and looks in better shape now than it did to many prior to the Iran War. The same day also delivers preliminary S&P Global PMIs, with manufacturing expected to ease slightly to 52.1 from 52.3, while services are forecast to recover to 51.4 from 49.8. Any commentary on supply chains or pricing pressures linked to Middle Eastern developments will be scrutinised, even if the surveys only partially capture the latest geopolitical shifts.

Across the globe, Thursday also sees the global flash April PMIs which will give a sense on how companies are viewing the current conflict, even if newsflow, net net, has improved of late. The prices paid components will be worth a watch.

There are plenty of indicators due in the UK, including labour market data tomorrow and March inflation on Wednesday. Our UK economist forecasts headline CPI to jump to 3.3% YoY, with core staying roughly steady at 3.2% (see full preview here). There will also be the March retail sales report and the April GfK consumer confidence indicator due Friday.

Sentiment data is also a theme for next week in the rest of Europe, with releases featuring the ZEW survey (tomorrow) and the Ifo survey (Friday) in Germany, as well as consumer confidence in the Eurozone (Wednesday) and France (Friday). Briefly turning to European political events, the list includes the EU leaders’ informal summit on Thursday and EU foreign affairs council meeting tomorrow. Elsewhere, March inflation will be in the spotlight in Japan on Friday when the national CPI is due. There will also be the March CPI report in Canada (today) and the Q1 CPI (tomorrow) in New Zealand. Rounding out with corporate earnings, there will be a number of companies across defence (RTX and Lockheed Martin), energy (SLB, Baker Hughes and Halliburton) and the materials (Newmont, Freeport-McMoRan) sectors reporting, whose results and outlook will be of interest amidst the Iran conflict. A number of airlines also post results. Tech names for this week will include Tesla, SK Hynix, Intel and SAP. Other highlights are Procter & Gamble, General Electric, American Express and Blackstone. See the full day-by-day week ahead at the end for more.

Recapping last week now, and markets climbed higher as prospects for a resolution between Iran and the US became more likely over the week. That was further cemented on Friday after Iran’s Foreign Minister announced that the Strait of Hormuz would now be open for the remaining period of the ceasefire. Although that was reversed less than a day later on Saturday, this helped drive Brent crude down -5.06% (-9.07% on Friday) last week to $90.38/bbl, its lowest close since March 10. In turn, multiple asset classes rallied as investors dialled back fears of a stagflation shock.

Those included equities, where multiple indices reached new records on the back of the Strait of Hormuz opening. The S&P 500 (+4.54%) saw its largely weekly rise since May 2025, closing at a new record high of 7126 (+1.20% on Friday). It had crossed above the 7,000 threshold for the first time earlier in the week on Wednesday. The Nasdaq Composite also rose +6.84% (+1.52% on Friday) to a new record, extending to a 13th day of consecutive gains for the first time since 1992. In Europe, most of the gains for equities came thanks to Friday’s jump, with the STOXX 600 (+1.91%, +1.56% Friday), CAC 40 (+2.00%, +1.97% Friday) FTSE 100 (+0.63%, +0.73% Friday) and DAX (+3.77%, +2.27% Friday) higher.
In fixed income, bonds also rallied as investors eased their concerns around the prospect of an energy-driven inflationary shock. In Europe, expectations of an April rate hike from the ECB collapsed from 34% to just 9% last week, which in turn helped yields on 2yr bunds (-19.4bps to 2.41%, -10.9bps on Friday) to see their largest weekly fall since April 2025. 10yr bund yields also declined by -9.8bps to 2.96% over the week (-7.2bps on Friday). Yields on 2yr (-8.9bps) and 10yr (-6.9bps) US Treasuries also fell over the week, as futures-implied probability that the Fed will cut by December rose to 61% compared to 26% the previous week. 

Finally, the news of tensions de-escalating in the Middle East triggered other notable moves in markets, with the dollar down for the third consecutive week at -0.56% (-0.12% on Friday). In credit, spreads tightened across the board, with US IG (-1bps) and HY spreads (-12bps) both falling last week, whilst Euro IG (-4bps) and HY spreads (-4bs) also fell back.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 08:45

UK PM Starmer Faces "Judgment Day" Over Epstein Pal Mandelson's Appointment

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is preparing for a showdown with the senior official he fired over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador, as calls for the prime minister to resign grow.

The controversy stems from Starmer's decision to appoint veteran Labour politician Peter Mandelson (Lord Mandelson) as Britain's ambassador to the United States in late 2024/early 2025, despite Mandelson's well-known past associations with the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

The scandal has escalated dramatically in recent days due to revelations about security vetting failures, leading to intense political pressure on Starmer.

As a reminder, Mandelson, a senior New Labour figure and former EU Trade Commissioner, has long faced questions over his friendship with sex-offender Epstein, and these ties were public knowledge when Starmer nominated him for the prestigious Washington role.

Starmer has said he was aware of the basic relationship but claims Mandelson "lied repeatedly" about the extent of contact.

He later sacked Mandelson in September 2025 after further details emerged about the depth of those links, including allegations of sharing sensitive information.

Starmer apologized to Epstein victims and accused Mandelson of betraying the country.

The appointment was always controversial, with critics questioning the judgment in placing someone with such baggage in a top diplomatic post involving close US-UK relations.

However, things have heated up recently after new reports emerged last week revealing that Mandelson failed his security vetting for the ambassador role.

Security officials recommended against clearance due to reputational and other risks, but Foreign Office officials overruled this and approved him anyway.

As The FT reports, papers published by the Cabinet Office last month include a letter from the then head of the civil service, Lord Simon Case, on November 11 2024, setting out the process before the appointment.

Case’s note, first reported by Sky News, said:

“You should give us the name of the person you would like to appoint and we will develop a plan for them to acquire the necessary security clearances and do due diligence on any potential conflicts of interest or other issues of which you should be aware before confirming your choice.”

Other papers have revealed that Jonathan Powell, Starmer’s national security adviser, found Mandelson’s appointment in December 2024 “weirdly rushed”.

Mandelson failed the vetting process by security officials, but was given security clearance nevertheless by Sir Olly Robbins, the most senior civil servant in the Foreign Office.

Starmer is facing widespread calls to resign from opposition parties and some within Labour circles.

“He is taking the public for fools,” Kemi Badenoch, leader of the Conservatives, said on Friday. “We know that No 10 was told that Mandelson had failed his vetting because journalists told them in September last year. This leaves us with two possibilities: either the Prime Minister is lying or he is so incompetent that he is unfit to run the country.”

“Either way his position is untenable,” she said.

Ed Davey, who heads the Liberal Democrats, also said on Sky News that Starmer had shown “catastrophic misjudgment and that’s why we have said he needs to go.”

Allies are standing by Starmer.. for now...

“Peter Mandelson shouldn’t have been appointed the ambassador,” Scottish Secretary Douglas Alexander said on Sky News on Monday.

“The prime minister, never mind myself, accepts that was a mistake.”

“I have absolutely no doubt at all, knowing the PM as I do, that had he known that Peter Mandelson had not passed the vetting, he would never, ever have appointed him ambassador,” Lammy, who was foreign secretary at the time, told the Guardian.

Starmer is due to make a statement and face grilling from MPs in the House of Commons today (Monday), which many are calling his "judgment day."

Starmer has repeatedly told Parliament and the public that "full due process" and proper vetting were followed.

He now claims he was not informed that Mandelson had failed the checks - describing it as "staggering" and "unforgivable."

He says he only learned this in the past few days and is "absolutely furious."

Within hours of the story breaking, Starmer reportedly forced out Robbins, who is expected to appear before a parliamentary committee soon (potentially clashing with the government's narrative).

Allies of Robbins have told British media including the Sunday Times that the former civil servant was being scapegoated.

Officials speaking to Bloomberg argue that Starmer had signaled privately that he was relaxed about Mandelson’s previously known links to Epstein, Russia and China, leading Robbins and his team to feel they were doing the prime minister’s bidding by disregarding concerns and approving his clearance regardless.

Meanwhile, Lord Gus O’Donnell, former head of the civil service, wrote in The Times newspaper that Starmer now faced “one of the worst crises in relations between ministers and mandarins of modern times”.

He added: “The dismissal of Sir Olly risks having a serious and sustained chilling effect on serving and prospective civil servants.”

The outcry over the Mandelson appointment is leaving Starmer in a vulnerable position.

Losses at the May 7 elections could open the premier up to leadership challenges, with the Sun reporting that Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham and former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner held a “secret meeting” on Friday

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 08:35

Xi Urges Immediate Opening Of Hormuz Strait For First Time, In Call With Saudi Crown Prince

China's President Xi Jinping on Monday demanded the uninterrupted passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz in a phone call with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, state news agency Xinhua reports. He urged the normalization of shipping traffic after about 50 days of disruption which obviously and significantly impacts Chinese oil imports.

"Normal navigation through the Strait of Hormuz should be maintained, this is in the shared interests of regional countries and the international community," Xi said, in the statement also carried by AFP. He called for an immediate, comprehensive ceasefire and insisted disputes be resolved through political and diplomatic means.

Getty Images

He added that China will deepen strategic mutual trust with Saudi Arabia and expand practical cooperation. 

South China Morning Post observes that it was "the first time the Chinese leader had called for the reopening of the strategically vital waterway, which has been repeatedly blockaded since US-Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28."

China imported 5.86 million tons of crude oil from Saudi Arabia, down 10% from February, according to customs data released Monday.

As for where things stand on the negotiations front, Iran hesitated over sending diplomats to Pakistan for a second round of peace talks after the US maintained a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and seized an Iranian vessel, after apparently firing on it, undermining prospects for a breakthrough to end the war. Initially it appeared to shut the door on second talks, however per Associated Press Monday morning:

Iranian authorities have expressed willingness to send a delegation for a second round of talks in Islamabad this week, two Pakistani officials said Monday.

The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to brief the media, said there is cautious optimism that delegations from both Iran and the United States could travel to Islamabad.

The US side would reportedly once again be headed up by Vice President JD Vance - who during the first round cut out early after a serious impasse was reached on the nuclear issue.

The tumultuous weekend events followed Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi having posted on X on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz was "completely open". By Sunday morning, Bloomberg ship tracking data had showed tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was largely ground to a halt. Also, the prior 24 hours had seen multiple incidents of tankers making U-turns, and added to all this a senior Iranian official renewed threats to close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.

According to a quick review of some other developments Monday morning and per emerging market data, China will import a record volume of US ethane this month as petrochemical producers switch feedstocks after the Middle East war disrupted critical supplies.

Recall that by mid-March Trump was actually asking for China's help to get the blocked Strait of Hormuz reopened...

Trump said China should help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, arguing Beijing depends heavily on oil flowing through the waterway.

“I think China should help too because China gets 90 per cent of its oil from the Straits.”

He warned he wants Beijing’s position before his planned… pic.twitter.com/ZbtxAppcqO

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 16, 2026

And in the broader region, Singapore is securing additional liquefied natural gas from outside the Middle East as the conflict in Iran constrains regional supply, according to a government body. India authorized more Russian insurers to cover vessels calling at its ports and extended permits for others as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupts energy shipments from the Persian Gulf.

The International Energy Agency has meanwhile said that global power consumption rose 3% last year, driven in part by rapid demand growth from electric vehicles and data centers, according to the International Energy Agency.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 08:05

Psychedelic Stocks Soar After Trump Order; RBC Says Commercialization Path Could Accelerate

Psychedelic drug stocks soared in premarket trading in New York after President Trump signed an executive order aimed at accelerating research and expanding access to therapies used for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD).

"The executive order I'm signing, we're actually signing the executive order today, is really a moment," Trump said at the signing event. "These treatments are currently in the advanced stages of clinical trials to ensure that they're both safe and effective for the American patients."

President Trump signed an executive order directing the FDA to expedite review of psychedelic drugs like ibogaine, which advocates say could treat PTSD and other mental health conditions https://t.co/vBk8EoguVF pic.twitter.com/AEW6V2merr

— Reuters (@Reuters) April 18, 2026

Trump's order, signed on Saturday, directs the FDA to prioritize review of certain breakthrough-designated psychedelic therapies, expands potential access under the Right to Try Act, commits at least $50 million in federal funding for state partnerships, and encourages closer coordination among HHS, the FDA, the VA, and private-sector researchers.

"In many cases, these experimental treatments have shown life-changing potential for those suffering from severe mental illness and depression, including our cherished veterans," Trump said, citing the veteran suicide rate.

The order also instructs the Justice Department to move quickly on rescheduling any psychedelic-based product that successfully completes Phase 3 trials and receives FDA approval.

Trump continued, "And the nice part is we're actually doing this early, but it has been going on. Research has been going on for quite some time. But, you know, usually with things like this, nothing ever happens, no matter how the research ends up, but we're changing that. This order will clear away unnecessary bureaucratic hurdles, improve data sharing among the FDA and the Department of Veterans Affairs, and facilitate fast rescheduling of any psychedelic drugs that become FDA-approved." 

Accelerating Medical Treatments for Serious Mental Illness🇺🇸@JoeRogan: "For 56 years we've lived under those terrible conditions. We're free of that now. Thanks to all these people... and thanks to President Trump." https://t.co/j1tkGACSM7 pic.twitter.com/aQmZl3z4PG

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) April 18, 2026

Oppenheimer analyst Jay Olson told clients that Trump's weekend executive order "represents a structural inflection point for the U.S. psychedelics sector by facilitating research, regulatory timelines, and patient access, which reinforces our positive outlook."

In response, psychedelic drug stocks in premarket trading, such as Compass Pathways jumped 24.5%, Atai Beckley gained 28%, Definium Therapeutics rose 13%, and GH Research added 17%. 

"The path to commercialization could be even faster now," RBC analyst Brian Abrahams told clients, adding that the executive order "accelerates psychedelics as the key next wave of mental health treatments."

Abrahams' research covers Definium Therapeutics, Compass Pathways, and GH Research. He said those stocks are likely to benefit the most.

Jefferies analyst Andrew pointed out that with the federal government increasingly aligned on psychedelics, "investor mindshare should rise meaningfully ahead of potential approvals in 2027-30."

This marks another big win for the psychedelic space.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 07:45

Powerful 7.5-Magnitude Quake Hits Northern Japan, Triggers Tsunami Warnings

A powerful and shallow 7.5-magnitude earthquake struck off Japan's northeast coast, triggering a tsunami at Kuji Port in Iwate Prefecture.

Public broadcaster NHK initially warned that a tsunami up to 10 feet high was expected to hit the Iwate area on Honshu's main island. However, so far, it has been reported to be about 31 inches high.

The quake was reported shortly before 17:00 local time, rattled towers as far away as Tokyo, and forced the suspension of Shinkansen high-speed rail services in Iwate, NHK said.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said the government had mobilized an emergency task force and urged citizens in affected areas to evacuate.

"Possible damage and casualties are now being looked into," Takaichi told reporters in Tokyo.

Japan sits on the Pacific "Ring of Fire," one of the world's most seismically active zones, where multiple tectonic plates collide and generate earthquakes.

Since the 2011 Fukushima disaster, when a 9.0-magnitude quake and tsunami sparked triple reactor meltdowns, Japan has overhauled its response and evacuation systems to improve disaster readiness.

NHK cited the Tokyo Electric Power Company as saying that no issues were reported at the Fukushima Daiichi and Fukushima Daini nuclear power plants.

The Japan Meteorological Agency warned that aftershocks are possible over the next week and could be similar in size to the quake recorded earlier today.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 06:55

From Leverage To Liability: The Hormuz Strait Is Now Iran's Biggest Weakness

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

For half a century, the Strait of Hormuz was Iran’s weapon. Today, it is its noose.

The mathematics of energy have flipped, and with them the balance of coercive power in the Persian Gulf.

Iran’s implicit deterrent was geographic, spanning from the tanker wars of the 1980s to the sanctions standoffs of the 2010s. Almost 20% of global seaborne oil, and a similar share of liquefied natural gas, passes through the Strait. The formula was simple: any military confrontation that threatened the Tehran regime risked a closure that would halt trade supplies, spike crude prices, bleed Western consumers, and, above all, inflict pain on the United States, who was the world’s largest oil importer.

The strait served as Tehran’s insurance policy and its most powerful bargaining tool. The threat was predicated on the regime’s belief that it could block everyone except its exports. The Iranian regime revealed its biggest weakness by constantly threatening to damage the global economy through a shutdown of the Strait. In reality, a total shutdown has the most severe impact on Iran.

Almost 90 per cent of Iran’s crude exports, and about 80 per cent of its total exports, depend on the transit through Hormuz. Around 25 per cent of Iranian GDP and 60 per cent of government revenues depend completely on having the Strait open.

Before the war, Iran was exporting roughly 1.7 million barrels per day, receiving around $160 million in daily revenue from exports via the Strait. Thus, Trump’s full closure of the Strait costs Tehran hundreds of millions of dollars a day in losses, not accounting for the additional fiscal and currency consequences in a country already facing an economic disaster with 40–50% inflation. The complete dependence on the Strait of Hormuz also adds to another weakness: 95% of Iranian crude at sea is sold to a single buyer, China. Tehran is not selling into a diversified and open market. Its exports are sold to a monopsony that demands large discounts, between 10 and 11 dollars per barrel.

These weaknesses were visible long before the war. Capital flight reached $15 billion in the first half of 2025 alone; the rial collapsed against the dollar, and the government’s budget, which allocates 51 per cent of oil revenues to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, became even more dependent on a single export route it could not afford to close. When the war began, Iranian crude shipments collapsed by 94%. Then, the United States’ decision to block all Iran export vessels showed that Iran’s chokepoint had become self-choking.

In the past 30 days, 80% of the essential volumes that moved through the Strait have been rerouted or offset by other oil producers, including US record exports.

The world is very different from what the Iran regime thought. In 2025, U.S. crude oil production hit a new annual record of 13.6 million barrels per day, making the United States the world’s largest producer but also the biggest exporter. The United States shipped 5.2 million barrels per day of crude and 7.2 million barrels per day of petroleum products in March 2026, both global records. For the first time, America exported more petroleum than it imported, by a net margin of almost 2.8 million barrels per day, according to the EIA. Total US liquids production now exceeds that of Saudi Arabia and Russia combined. On the natural gas side, U.S. LNG exports reached well over 15 billion cubic feet per day, surpassing Qatar and Australia to make the United States the world’s largest liquefied natural gas exporter, while U.S. dry gas production exceeds the combined output of Russia, Iran, and China. Furthermore, the United States is also the world’s largest producer of nuclear electricity, at roughly 30 per cent of global generation, and a global leader in renewable energy.

When President Trump could say in April 2026 that the United States was “clearing the Strait as a favour to countries around the world, including China, Japan, Korea, and Germany,” the framing was an accurate description of who needs Hormuz open and who does not. Only 4% of the traffic through the Strait goes to the United States, according to SP Global.

According to the International Energy Agency, throughput at Hormuz collapsed from its long-run average of about 20 million barrels per day to 3.8 million since the beginning of the war through the second week of April. Daily ship transits fell roughly 95 per cent. The Tehran regime, in a gesture more theatrical than realistic, attempted to levy a $2 million toll on each vessel crossing the strait, without understanding that the move showed desperation instead of leverage.

The US response has been the most important measure deployed against Iran in two decades of standoffs. Operation Economic Fury established a full naval blockade of Iranian ports. Iranian naval losses in the first 38 days of combat exceeded 150 vessels. The ceasefire framework under negotiation requires Iran to reopen Hormuz, but the US maintains control. Thus, negotiations revolve around Iranian dismantlement, not American concessions.

The lesson is not just that Iran miscalculated but that it massively underestimated its obvious weaknesses. The United States is not a hostage of the Gulf; it is the guarantee of its safe sea lanes. Europe is tied to U.S. LNG while keeping a substantial Russian dependence, which complicates its energy security and makes it vulnerable to fluctuations in supply and price from both sources. Asia’s largest economies, particularly China, are suffering the marginal cost of a Hormuz disruption, which has led to increased energy prices and supply chain uncertainties that further exacerbate their economic challenges. Iran’s economic nightmare has only started.

Three important factors must be considered.

• First, the traditional Hormuz risk premium in Brent, which refers to the additional cost added to oil prices due to geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, is structurally smaller than in the 2010s because U.S. supply can absorb shocks that previously had no substitute. The Brent price is lower in real and nominal terms than in the 2008, 2018, or 2022 peaks.

• Second, the strength of American energy, including economics, export infrastructure, and LNG capacity, has become a key global geopolitical variable, influencing global energy prices and the strategic decisions of other nations.

• Third, Iran’s economy has not only suffered damage; it has also been demolished, and its extremely weak fiscal position indicates that it cannot sustain the threat posture in Hormuz.

The Strait of Hormuz remains the world’s most important chokepoint. However, a chokepoint hurts whoever depends on it most, and Iran relies on it completely. The United States does not.

The geopolitical advantage that Tehran once held has now become its greatest weakness, likely leading to the disappearance of the regime’s effective bargaining power.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 06:30

"No More Mr. Nice Guy": US Strikes, Seizes Iranian Cargo Ship Trying To Break Blockade Summary

• Trump renews threats if no deal is reached: "No More Mr. Nice Guy"

• Trump says U.S. struck and seized Iranian-flagged cargo ship in Gulf of Oman

• Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has ground to a halt after multiple incidents (Iran renewed threats to close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait)

• Vance to lead negotiations with Iran, along with Witkoff and Kushner, on Tuesday or Wednesday

• "We are still far from the final discussion,"  said speaker of the Iranian parliament Ghalibaf

US Struck and Seized Iranian-flagged Cargo Ship on Gulf Of Oman

With markets still closed for now, President Trump just posted on his Truth Social platform that the US military just struck and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman.

Today, an Iranian-flagged cargo ship named TOUSKA, nearly 900 feet long and weighing almost as much as an aircraft carrier, tried to get past our Naval Blockade, and it did not go well for them.

The U.S. Navy Guided Missile Destroyer USS SPRUANCE intercepted the TOUSKA in the Gulf of Oman, and gave them fair warning to stop.

The Iranian crew refused to listen, so our Navy ship stopped them right in their tracks by blowing a hole in the engineroom.

Right now, U.S. Marines have custody of the vessel.

The TOUSKA is under U.S. Treasury Sanctions because of their prior history of illegal activity.

We have full custody of the ship, and are seeing what’s on board!

According to CENTCOM, American forces issued multiple warnings and informed the Iranian-flagged vessel it was in violation of the U.S. blockade.

After Touska’s crew failed to comply with repeated warnings over a six-hour period, Spruance directed the vessel to evacuate its engine room.

Spruance disabled Touska’s propulsion by firing several rounds from the destroyer’s 5-inch MK 45 Gun into Touska’s engine room.

U.S. Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit later boarded the non-compliant vessel, which remains in U.S. custody.

American forces acted in a deliberate, professional, and proportional manner to ensure compliance.

U.S. forces operating in the Arabian Sea enforced naval blockade measures against an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel attempting to sail toward an Iranian port, April 19.

Guided-missile destroyer USS Spruance (DDG 111) intercepted M/V Touska as it transited the north Arabian Sea at… https://t.co/iyzOQd93C3 pic.twitter.com/HwU4XS48Oq

— DOW Rapid Response (@DOWResponse) April 19, 2026

Since the blockade’s commencement, U.S. forces have directed 25 commercial vessels to turn around or return to an Iranian port.

Now we wait and see the reaction as futures open and the vocal (and kinetic) action is wound back in.

Record highs in stocks provides just the kind of backdrop for Trump to press his 'escalated to de-escalate' strategy into the end of the ceasefire.

Tanker Traffic Through Strait Halted

By Sunday morning, the latest Bloomberg ship tracking data showed that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had largely ground to a halt.

There were multiple incidents of tankers U-turning over the last 24 hours.

At the same time, a senior Iranian official renewed threats to close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.

The Hormuz chokepoint (closed once again after briefly opening on Friday morning) comes as the US blockade of Iranian ports remains in place and US-Iran diplomatic channels appear active..

The odds of shipping traffic returning to normal on the Hormuz by the end of the month are currently around 28% on Polymarket. Those odds just hours ago, early Sunday, stood around 18%.

//--> //--> Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Yes 28% · No 72%
View full market & trade on Polymarket Vance to Lead Negotiations with Iran

President Trump told Fox News that special envoy Steve Witkoff is traveling to Pakistan for talks with Iranian negotiators, suggesting the Trump team and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio are still pursuing a negotiated off-ramp.

Separately, Trump wrote on Truth Social that his representatives "will be there tomorrow evening, for Negotiations."

The meetings in Islamabad will be "Tuesday possibly into Wednesday," Trump told Fox News in a call Sunday morning, the outlet reported.

Yet Iranian state media reported Sunday that Tehran had "rejected" the second round of talks.

Iran's "absence" from the talks, the report said, was a result of "Washington's excessive demands, unrealistic expectations, constant shifts in stance, repeated contradictions, and the ongoing naval blockade, which it considers a breach of the ceasefire."

Confirmation of another round of upcoming US-Iran talks comes one day after Iran shuttered the Hormuz, citing the US Naval blockade that remains in place.

Overnight, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of the Iranian parliament, admitted on national television that there had been "progress" with Washington, but that there were many gaps and some fundamental points remained.

"We are still far from the final discussion," said Ghalibaf, one of Tehran's top negotiators.

Ghalibaf continued, "If America does not lift the blockade, traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will definitely be limited."

Trump has accused Tehran of getting "a little cute" with its flip-flopping on the strait that was reopened on Friday but abruptly closed on Saturday morning.

The ceasefire is set to expire Wednesday.

Trump Renews Threats: "No More Mr. Nice Guy"

Trump also renewed threats made earlier this month to "knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran" if no deal is reached, warning that "they'll come down fast, they'll come down easy."

Trump's full Truth Social post from earlier:

Iran decided to fire bullets yesterday in the Strait of Hormuz — A Total Violation of our Ceasefire Agreement! Many of them were aimed at a French Ship, and a Freighter from the United Kingdom. That wasn't nice, was it?

My Representatives are going to Islamabad, Pakistan — They will be there tomorrow evening, for Negotiations. Iran recently announced that they were closing the Strait, which is strange, because our BLOCKADE has already closed it.

They're helping us without knowing, and they are the ones that lose with the closed passage, $500 Million Dollars a day! The United States loses nothing. In fact, many Ships are headed, right now, to the U.S., Texas, Louisiana, and Alaska, to load up, compliments of the IRGC, always wanting to be "the tough guy!"

We're offering a very fair and reasonable DEAL, and I hope they take it because, if they don't, the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran.

NO MORE MR. NICE GUY! They'll come down fast, they'll come down easy and, if they don't take the DEAL, it will be my Honor to do what has to be done, which should have been done to Iran, by other Presidents, for the last 47 years. IT'S TIME FOR THE IRAN KILLING MACHINE TO END! President DONALD J. TRUMP

Latest headlines:

Strait of Hormuz Crisis

• Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz was at a near standstill early Sunday after Iran reversed its decision to reopen the waterway and fired on vessels attempting to pass (BN)

• Several LNG tankers reversed course en route to the Strait of Hormuz after Iran warned ship captains that the vital channel is once again closed to maritime traffic (BN)

• Two Indian vessels reported firing and returned to the Persian Gulf (BN)

• Iran's foreign ministry says US naval blockade is a 'violation' of ceasefire (AFP)

US-Iran Negotiations

• Trump said his special envoy Steve Witkoff is traveling to Pakistan for talks with Iran on Tuesday, with talks potentially lasting into Wednesday (BN)

• Trump says US negotiators will be in Pakistan on Monday for talks with Iran, resuming negotiations after the Strait of Hormuz standoff escalated (APW) (APW)

• Iran says 'commitment for commitment' policy in US talks (NS8)

Trump's Threats and Statements

• Trump renewed threats to 'knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran' if no deal is reached (BN) (AFP)

• Trump said Iran has committed a 'serious violation' of the ceasefire but a peace deal is still possible, stating 'It will happen. One way or another. The nice way or the hard way' (BN) (JPT)

• Trump tells Fox US has massive ammunition prepared against Iran (BN)

Regional Impact

• The standoff threatens to deepen the energy crisis roiling the global economy and undermine expectations of an imminent peace deal (BN)

• Analysis suggests America's Iran operations may help China edge out US influence in Southeast Asia, with several NATO allies distancing themselves from Washington (SMP)

The previous day's US-Iran wrap:

• US Prepares To Board Iran-Linked Ships Globally Following Iranian Gunboat Attack On Tanker In Hormuz

Other Polymarket Iran Predictions:

//--> //--> US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Yes 63% · No 38%
View full market & trade on Polymarket //--> //--> Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Yes 13% · No 88%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

. . . 

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 06:11

These Are The Countries Building The Most Nuclear Power

China is set to become the world’s dominant nuclear power producer.

Based on existing and planned projects, its total capacity could reach nearly 186 gigawatts, far surpassing the U.S., which currently leads globally. This shift reflects a broader push to secure reliable, low-carbon energy as electricity demand rises.

This chart, via Visual Capitalist's Tasmin Lockwood, ranks countries by current and prospective nuclear capacity, using data from Global Energy Monitor.

How Nuclear Energy Is Set to Scale by Country

The U.S. currently leads nuclear energy production with a capacity of 102,475 megawatts, exceeding France by more than 35,000 MW.

China ranks third today at 60,898 MW, but that is set to change as new plants come online.

Dive into the data, which includes sites of any capacity as of September 2025, below:

This shift has major geopolitical implications. Countries that expand nuclear capacity can reduce reliance on imported fossil fuels while strengthening energy security and grid stability.

If all planned projects are completed, China will lead with 185,812 MW, followed by the U.S. at 117,910 MW and France at 75,590 MW.

France remains a historic leader in nuclear energy, with around 69% of its electricity generated from the technology.

The UK was home to the world’s first commercial nuclear power plant, which came online in 1956, but later scaled back its use of nuclear. The government is now aiming for a “golden age of nuclear,” though current commitments totaling 15,394 MW would rank the country just 12th globally.

Of the 17 countries with zero installed capacity today, Uganda is set to scale up the most to 18,000 MW, followed by Poland with 15,612 MW and Türkiye with 14,700 MW.

Betting on Nuclear Fusion and Fission

Today’s nuclear expansion is centered on fission, the technology that powers all existing reactors and accounts for about 10% of global electricity generation. While mature, it is evolving through smaller, modular designs that aim to reduce costs, improve safety, and speed up deployment.

This helps explain why much of the prospective capacity in the chart includes not only large-scale plants, but also a growing wave of smaller reactors backed by governments and private capital.

At the same time, nuclear fusion, the process that powers the sun, remains a long-term ambition. Despite rising investment and recent technical progress, it has yet to reach commercial scale.

For now, the global nuclear buildout is firmly rooted in fission, as countries prioritize reliable, low-carbon power that can be deployed within the next decade.

To learn more about nuclear, check out this graphic ranking the countries building the most reactors.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 05:45

Europe Faces Summer Jet Fuel Crisis As Iran War Slashes Supply

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

• Europe faces an imminent jet fuel crisis as the Iran war and Hormuz disruption cut off key Middle Eastern supplies.

• Long-term refinery closures and rising import dependence have left Europe highly exposed, with limited alternatives and growing competition from Asia.

• Airlines are already cutting capacity and warning of higher fares, with potential flight cancellations looming as fuel shortages intensify.

Accelerated refinery closures in the past decade and increased dependence on kerosene from the Middle East have exposed Europe’s energy supply vulnerability once again.

For years, European consumers have had to contend with last-minute strikes of ground personnel and cabin crew during peak summer travel. This year, strikes may be viewed as a minor nuisance compared to what’s coming within weeks—a jet fuel supply crisis that could ground flights and hike fares.

The war in Iran has cut most of Europe’s imports of jet fuel, while local output has been falling for nearly two decades due to dozens of refineries closing permanently or being converted to biofuel production.

The war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have severely constrained Europe’s jet fuel supply, while jet fuel prices have spiked to over $200 per barrel. The last imports from the Middle East on tankers that had passed Hormuz before the war began have arrived, and there is only one alternative to source jet fuel—from the United States. These supplies are not only insufficient to replace the loss of Middle Eastern jet fuel. Europe faces increasingly fierce competition from Asia for these cargoes as the crisis first hit Asia with crude supply from the Middle East collapsing, Asian refiners cutting refinery runs, and countries imposing fuel export restrictions to preserve domestic supply.

Back in 2009, nearly 100 refineries were operating in Europe. Of these, 28 refineries – more than 25% of the number of refineries and 16% of refining capacity – have been either shut or transformed since 2009, according to data from the European Fuel Manufacturers Association.

As refineries were closing, due to declining fuel demand in Europe and emission-reduction policies, the European dependence on imported supply has grown. The hit to supply from the Middle East caught Europe off guard regarding the security of energy supply for the second time in just four years, after natural gas deliveries from Russia crashed in 2022.

This time, the jet fuel crisis could be imminent, analysts and forecasters warn.

Last year, Europe imported about a third of the jet fuel it consumed, with 75% of imports coming from the Middle East, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has said.

Its executive director, Fatih Birol, this week warned that Europe has “maybe six weeks or so” of remaining jet fuel supply.

“If we are not able to open the Strait of Hormuz ... I can tell you soon we will hear the news that some of the flights from city A to city B might be canceled as a result of lack of jet fuel,” Birol told Associated Press in an interview.

Northwest Europe is one of the regions most exposed to the jet fuel crisis, as imports have dropped from historical norms this month, and the import decline is set to accelerate in the coming weeks as more U.S. jet fuel cargoes would go to Asia instead of Europe, Ernest Censier, market analyst at Vortexa, said in an analysis on Thursday.

The 15% drop in European jet fuel imports so far in April “reflects structural dependence on Middle Eastern supply: approximately half of NWE’s jet fuel imports typically transit through the Strait of Hormuz,” Censier said.

In addition, relatively short voyage times of about 21 days from Mina Abdulla in Kuwait to Rotterdam mean that supply disruptions are transmitted quickly into regional imports, the analyst added.

The U.S. has emerged as the key source of substitution for lost Middle Eastern supply, but this is unlikely to be sustained as U.S. jet/kerosene exports are increasingly being redirected toward the Pacific Basin, reaching a seven-year high this month, and now accounting for over 30% of total U.S. jet fuel exports.

“This reallocation reflects a broader shift in US product exports toward the Pacific Basin,” Vortexa’s Censier noted.

This leaves Europe highly exposed to the turbulence in the jet fuel markets.

Lufthansa, Europe’s biggest airline, on Thursday said it is accelerating plans to reduce its flight program and retire some aircraft earlier.

“In view of significantly increased kerosene prices, which have more than doubled compared to the period before the Iran war, as well as rising additional burdens from labor disputes.”

“The package for accelerated implementation of fleet and capacity measures is unavoidable in light of the sharply increased kerosene costs and geopolitical instability,” said Till Streichert, Chief Financial Officer of Lufthansa Group.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 05:00

Europeans Pay The Most For Public Transport

Creating and maintaining reliable, efficient and affordable public transportation networks is crucial for developing a more sustainable mobility sector worldwide, though challenges vary by region.

In Europe, gaps are most evident in rural areas, where low population density limits service frequency.

In North America, many cities also suffer from fragmented public transport systems, making car dependency widespread in both rural and urban areas.

In Latin America and South Asia, semi-formal systems such as minibuses are an important and affordable part of transport networks, but often lack reliability and efficiency.

But, as Statista's Anna Fleck details below, according to Statista Market Insights, even regions with strong public transport coverage face affordability challenges.

You will find more infographics at Statista

In Switzerland, for example, average monthly revenue per user was estimated at around $535 in 2025, with other high figures seen in Nordic countries such as Denmark ($491) and Norway ($443).

However, this metric reflects operator revenue rather than typical ticket prices and should be interpreted cautiously.

At the lower end, countries such as Burundi, Malawi and Madagascar show monthly revenues per user below $3, while Bangladesh and India range between $6 and $8.

Overall, the global public transportation sector generated an estimated $294 billion in 2025, an increase of roughly 40 percent from the pandemic-induced slump in 2021.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 04:15

Cracks Appear In Climate Consensus As Germany's Energy Minister Admits Renewables Are Ruining The Country

Authored by Tilak Doshi,

When Simon Wakter, Political Adviser to Sweden’s Minister for Energy, posted on X last Wednesday with a simple “Wow, incredible article” and a clapping emoji, he captured the shock rippling through Europe’s energy commentariat.

The target of his applause was not some fringe sceptic but Germany’s own Economy and Energy Minister, Katherina Reiche.

In a guest column for the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Reiche delivered a verdict that would have been career-ending heresy only a year ago: “One fact has been concealed for too long: an energy transition that ignores system costs will ruin the country it claims to save.” To anyone who has watched Germany’s Energiewende — that totemic experiment in decarbonisation-by-decree — unfold like a slow-motion train wreck, Reiche’s words land like a thunderclap from the Establishment itself.

Here is a senior CDU Minister in Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Government openly admitting that two decades of Green-inspired fantasy have saddled the continent’s industrial powerhouse with hidden costs now running, according to estimates she cites, at €36 billion a year and climbing towards €90 billion. Grid expansions, backup power for intermittent wind and solar and the sheer inefficiency of trying to run a modern economy on the weather: all of it, she says, must stop being airbrushed out of the official narrative. The self-deception, she warns, is over.

This is not mere technocratic tinkering. It is the first major public crack in the ideological edifice that has dominated German — and by extension European — energy policy since the anti-nuclear, beatnik ’68ers’ generation seized the cultural high ground. Rupert Darwall chronicled the phenomenon with great precision in Green Tyranny: how a handful of German Greens, personified by the sneaker-wearing Joschka Fischer swearing in as Hesse’s environment minister in 1985, exported their peculiar red-green blend of anti-capitalist zeal and romantic environmentalism across the continent and beyond.

That gospel found a ready audience in the Anglosphere. In the summer of 1988, NASA scientist James Hansen delivered his now-infamous testimony to the US Congress, declaring that “the greenhouse effect has been detected and is changing our climate now”. The moment was theatrical, the science shaky, but the political effect electric. It fused with the inchoate ideas already circulating among Western intellectuals: Paul Ehrlich’s The Population Bomb (1968), which prophesied mass famine that never came; Rachel Carson’s Silent Spring (1962), which launched the modern environmental movement on the back of exaggerated claims about DDT; and E.F. Schumacher’s Small is Beautiful (1973), the manifesto of ‘Buddhist economics’ that preached reducing human demand rather than raising living standards. As the great Chicago economist Frank Knight observed, economic progress consists not in suppressing desires nor even in satiating them but in their “ever greater refinement and multiplication” — a direct antithesis to Schumacher’s call for ascetic material restraint as spiritual virtue.

This European ideological curse of environmental misanthropy spread among the young urban intelligentsia of the developing countries through the educational curricula and mass media and the vast number of students studying in the progressive universities of the West, from Canada to Australia, Ireland to Italy and New York to California and Florida.

The spread of Europe’s green gospel was enthusiastically supported by Left-wing billionaire foundations which sprouted thousands of “grassroots NGOs” in Asia, Africa and Latin America. These so-called grassroots NGOs were handy to provide a moral cover for grifting renewable-energy lobbies seeking rents from the public purse. Local ‘Bootleggers and Baptists‘ coalitions arose across the developing countries that derived mutual benefits in Europe’s carbon colonialism. To complete the circle, captured agencies such as the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and the IMF imposed anti-fossil-fuel constraints as a condition for aid and public finance to poorer African and Asian governments.

At the root of it all lay Europe’s long love affair with Jean-Jacques Rousseau’s “noble savage”, the fantasy that the simple, low-energy lifestyles of Tahitian natives represented a purer existence than the artifice of industrial civilisation. When Voltaire received a copy of Rousseau’s book The Social Contract, he replied:

I have received your new book against the human race, and thank you for it. Never was such a cleverness used in the design of making us all stupid. One longs, in reading your book, to walk on all fours. But as I have lost that habit for more than 60 years, I feel unhappily the impossibility of resuming it.

Perhaps the German intelligentsia never saw the thrust of Voltaire’s rather disdainful response to Rousseau’s love affair with Pacific Islanders.

What began as German domestic posturing metastasized into EU-wide dogma with Angela Merkel’s fateful 2011 decision to shut the country’s nuclear plants after the Fukushima incident in Japan. The results were as predictable as they were catastrophic. Germany, once the engineering envy of the world, now imports electricity when the wind doesn’t blow and the sun doesn’t shine. It has destroyed its nuclear industry — 20 gigawatts of reliable, low-carbon baseload — only to watch coal-fired plants, including the dirty lignite variety, roar back to life.

Fritz Vahrenholt, one of the few credentialled German voices who has consistently refused to drink the Gaia Kool-Aid, pointed out in an interview last week that the country sits atop enough domestic gas reserves for 25 years of secure supply. Yet it refuses to exploit them, crippled by what he calls the “German disease” of nature worship.

The March 2026 closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran’s IRGC merely administered the coup de grâce to an already terminal patient. Qatar’s force majeure on LNG shipments removed nearly 20% of global supply overnight. European gas prices spiked and power prices followed as German storage levels plunged.

Suddenly the same political class that had spent years lecturing voters about the moral imperative of Net Zero found itself quietly dusting off moribund lignite coal plants previously earmarked for closure. A ‘renaissance for coal’ is how analysts describe the spectacle. The prior government’s solemn pledge to phase out coal by 2030 now reads like a bad joke told at the expense of German households and manufacturers.

In a Facebook post, the TechTimes said:

In a move that highlights the severe economic strain of the Middle East conflict, the German Government is reportedly considering a ‘renaissance for coal’ to prevent a total energy meltdown. … While Germany has spent years pushing for a 2030 coal phase-out, the current energy crisis has forced a pivot toward energy security over climate targets. Reports indicate that several lignite units, previously held in safety reserve, may be returned to full market operation.

Conservative leader Alice Weidel, riding a surge of popularity for the conservative-populist AfD party that is now second only to the ruling CDU/CSU coalition, has forthrightly stated that under an AfD-led government, the Net Zero movement would be rejected:

We must also declare the climate crisis over. The whole thing is, as the American President so nicely puts it, a hoax – it is a complete scam. … We must immediately end the failed Energiewende. We must also immediately cut back and eliminate the waste of resources and the subsidies for so-called renewable energies.

German Energy Minister Reiche is not alone in her seeming Damascene conversion. Chancellor Merz has repeatedly called the 2023 nuclear shutdown a “serious strategic mistake” that left Germany vulnerable to import shocks and deindustrialisation. Even EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, that high priestess of the Green Deal, stood before a nuclear summit in Paris on March 10th and confessed that “reducing Europe’s nuclear sector was a strategic mistake”. Reliable, affordable, low-emission power had been sacrificed on the altar of ideology, she effectively admitted — 15 years too late for the German utilities that had already been forced into insolvency or foreign ownership.

Yet these deathbed ‘repentances’ cannot disguise the deeper truth: the entire red-green project was always a triumph of wishful thinking over engineering reality, favouring Rousseau’s imaginations of noble savages in the South Pacific over Voltaire’s rather commonsensical rejection of being told that walking on all fours was heavenly.

The West’s punitive climate policies — layered atop self-inflicted energy sanctions on Russia — have boomeranged with spectacular precision. Entire sectors of German manufacturing have decamped to jurisdictions unburdened by the climate industrial complex. Energy-intensive industries that once powered the Mittelstand now eye the exits, while households stare at electricity prices that remain among the highest in the developed world.

Following the recent elections in Baden-Württemberg, the exasperated pseudonymous commentator Eugyppius remarked that: “Stupid people in Baden-Württemberg hand massive electoral victory to the Greens so they can continue to sacrifice their industry to the weather gods.” For the German Greens and their socialist allies, of course, the stupid people are the working- and middle-class majority who are ‘climate deniers’. Never mind that they are cost-of-living realists who notice when their heating bills triple, when German industry bleeds jobs and when the same politicians who preached energy poverty as virtue now scramble to fire up the dirtiest coal plants to prevent blackouts.

The polling numbers tell the story with merciless clarity. Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is now routinely polling at 25–27% nationally, ahead of or level with the CDU/CSU in several surveys. In western states long considered immune to its message, AfD has doubled its vote share in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate. Its platform could not be clearer: man-made climate change is a ‘scam’, the entire Net Zero apparatus a vehicle for crushing industry and sovereignty.

Enter the ‘Far Right’

This is not fringe muttering; it is the explicit rejection of the Energiewende that Reiche herself is now edging towards. The pattern repeats across Europe. In France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally leads Presidential polling by framing the Green transition as “ultra-ecological fanaticism” that punishes farmers and motorists while enriching the Davos set. Britain’s Reform UK under Nigel Farage mocks Net Zero as “Net stupid Zero” and surges on promises to drill domestic resources. Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, though more circumspect in office, has little patience for Brussels’s eco-mandates and has quietly prioritised energy security over emission targets. Even a section of British Conservatives, once captured by the same delusions, have begun to row back on timelines that threatened to bankrupt households.

What unites these movements is not they are led by ‘far-Right’ extremists, as the legacy press hysterically insists, but a straightforward recognition that ideology has collided with physics and economics. German households — those not among the young urban Greens steeped in deep-ecology dogma — are fed up. They have watched their country destroy its nuclear fleet, subsidise intermittent renewables to the tune of hundreds of billions of Euros and then beg Qatar and the United States for LNG while quietly reopening coal mines. The same elites who imposed these costs now express shock that voters are turning to parties promising relief.

The Hormuz shock has merely accelerated a reckoning that was already baked in. Ireland’s riots and protests over energy-driven cost-of-living pain offer a grim preview of what happens when governments refuse to admit their role in manufacturing the crisis. Dublin is quietly backing down without ever conceding the policy errors that made energy poverty inevitable. Berlin, Paris and Brussels are engaged in the same contortions: walking back punitive green measures while pretending the original strategy was sound.

History’s reckoning

Yet there is a larger historical arc at work. The German Greens’ capture of energy policy was never really about climate; it was about power — cultural, political and economic. It represented the final victory of a post-1968 worldview that equated industrial civilisation with original sin. BRICS nations and the Global South have no intention of sacrificing development on the altar of Western guilt. China builds coal plants and nuclear reactors with equal enthusiasm; India refuses to apologise for using its own coal.

Only in Europe did policymakers convince themselves that virtue-signalling could substitute for watts. Reiche’s epiphany, however partial, is therefore welcome. So too are Merz’s and von der Leyen’s belated acknowledgments. But rhetorical corrections will not suffice. Germany must confront the full cost of its ideological detour: the lost nuclear capacity, the stranded assets, the industrial hollowing-out and the political polarisation that has handed AfD its strongest hand since its founding.

The question is whether the Establishment possesses the courage to follow where basic economics and common-sense leads — towards a pragmatic energy mix that includes nuclear revival where feasible, domestic fossil resources where necessary and an end to the ruinous subsidies that have enriched renewables rent-seekers while impoverishing citizens.

Fifteen years after Merkel’s nuclear panic and decades after the Greens first infiltrated the corridors of power, reality is reasserting itself with the cold logic of physics and markets.

The fevered dream of a weather-dependent utopia is dissolving under the pressure of rolling blackouts, price spikes and voter revolt.

What comes next will hopefully be a return to something more honest: an energy policy grounded in engineering, not eschatology. For a country that once prided itself on Sachlichkeit — sobriety and realism — the awakening cannot come soon enough. The alternative is not climate salvation but national decline. Germany, and Europe with it, stands at the threshold. The only question remaining is whether its leaders will step through it before the lights go out for good.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 03:30

These Are The Top Trade Partners Of Every European Country

Germany sits at the center of Europe’s trade network, but it is not the only global force shaping the continent’s economy.

This map, via Visual Capitalist's Gabriel Cohen, highlights the top trading partner of each European country based on International Monetary Fund data for Q1-Q3 2025.

Europe’s nearly $30 trillion economy is diverse and spans sectors such as energy, manufacturing, and agriculture, yet nearly half of all European countries rely on the same major trading partner for their imports and exports.

Germany: The Center of Europe

Germany is the top trade partner for 19 European countries, more than six times as many as the next closest countries, which each count just three.

This dominance reflects Germany’s central role in European manufacturing, supply chains, and intra-EU trade.

The table below shows how many European countries rely on each nation as their top trade partner, highlighting Germany’s outsized role in the region.

The Dutch, French, and Italian economies, among others, are closely linked to Germany, which is a major industrial player and consumer of primary goods ranging from crude oil to agricultural products. German cars and other high-value exports, meanwhile, have found success across European markets, especially within the 27-member European Union.

The following table shows each European country’s largest trade partner.

While Germany is Europe’s trade giant, its own largest trade partner is the Netherlands. The two countries have an annual trading relationship worth more than $200 billion, marked by extensive economic integration and joint supply chains.

The Netherlands, home to Europe’s largest seaport at Rotterdam, is also the main trade partner of neighboring Belgium, with which it forms part of the Benelux union.

Europe’s Other Top Trading Partners

Many European countries trade most with their largest neighboring country. For example, Malta’s main trade partner is Italy. Portugal’s top trade partner is Spain, while Spain’s is France.

The Baltics take this a step further: Latvia’s largest trade partner is Lithuania, while Lithuania’s is Poland. Estonia’s main trade partner is Finland, while Finland’s is Sweden. Poland and Sweden, in turn, maintain their largest trade relationships with Germany.

Some clear exceptions emerge. As the world’s largest economy, the U.S. is the primary trade partner of Ireland, the United Kingdom, and Switzerland.

The Rise of China to the East

While Germany dominates within Europe, China is expanding its influence along the continent’s eastern edge.

It is now the top trade partner for Russia, Ukraine, and Turkey, displacing traditional European partners such as Germany in some cases.

Chinese exports to Russia and Ukraine play a major role in the country’s relationship with both Eastern European nations. Beijing also imports significant amounts of primary goods from the two warring countries, including food and mineral products from Ukraine as well as hydrocarbons from Russia.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out The $19 Trillion European Union Economy on Voronoi.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 02:45

Will Ukraine End Up Forcibly Conscripting Women To Fight On The Frontline?

Via Remix News,

Since Ukraine’s population has shrunk dramatically, the army’s number one problem is no longer the lack of weapons, such as ballistic missiles and air defense systems, but the lack of soldiers to operate them, writes Világgazdaság.

The authorities in Kyiv, however, must bring the army size required by Commander-in-Chief Zelensky (800,000 active soldiers), and since the number of men eligible for military service (between the ages of 18 and 60) is slowly running out, the Ukrainian leadership is now trying to fill the gaps by conscripting women. 

As of early 2024, approximately 5 million men are considered to be of conscription age in Ukraine, reduced from about 8.7 million before the February 2022 invasion due to death and emigration.

And yet, many of these 5 million are exempt, unfit for service, or already serving.

Ukraine has long been shown to use forced conscription methods, with increasing violence, leading men to attempt to leave the country, often at the risk of their lives. 

Last year, Hungarian channel M1-Hirado recently ran a special compiling some of the latest footage of Ukrainians being beaten and shoved into vans in forced mobilization operations.

Citizens across the country have fought back since the war began, especially in areas populated by ethnic Hungarians, who feel they have been targeted.

As of now, there is no full mobilization of women.

According to lawyer Rostislav Kravec, the fact that women can also be included in the list of those who refuse military service or deserters could be a kind of “test” by the authorities.

This way, they can gauge how public opinion would react to the general, mandatory mobilization of women.

Meanwhile, although both sides have contended claims of territorial gains or losses, Russian armed forces are slowly pushing Ukrainians out of the fortified towns in Donbas. 

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 02:00

Assisted Suicide Is The Logical Outcome Of Government-Controlled Medical Care

Authored by William Andersen via The Mises Institute,

Christianity Today recently published an article by Kristy Etheridge that was very critical of Canada’s Medical Assistance in Dying (MAID) program, something that would not be surprising, given the magazine’s evangelical Christian outlook on issues.

The article—again, not surprisingly—dealt mostly with how many Christian groups, and especially the Roman Catholic Church, have spoken out against Canada’s program and similar programs in Europe and in the US.

Wrote Etheridge:

Many Christians spoke out against assisted suicide in the 1990s when Dr. Jack Kevorkian became a household name for participating in dozens of suicides in Michigan. Since then, evangelical passion against assisted suicide seems to have waned. While evangelicals have left a void in many public spaces regarding end-of-life issues, the Catholic church has often stood in the gap. As more states and countries consider legalizing the practice, believers must raise their voices together in defense of life.

Christians who oppose assisted suicide affirm that life is sacred. God created human beings in his image (Gen. 1:27), and we do not have the right to destroy ourselves or each other.

Brad East, writing in Christianity Today, noted:

The church’s moral teaching has always held that murder—defined as the intentional taking of innocent life—is intrinsically evil. It follows that actively intending the death of an elderly or sick human being and then deliberately bringing about that death through some positive action, such as the administration of drugs, is always and everywhere morally wrong.

Promoters of assisted suicide always couch their arguments in the language of compassion for those suffering from terminal illness, and 11 US states also permit assisted suicide, all of them except for Montana being dominated by the Democratic Party. This practice always has been couched in the language of “death with dignity,” and it generally has strong support from the political left, although the hard-left socialist publication, Jacobin, recently had an article by Jeremy Appel critical the circumstances under which some Canadians choose suicide, declaring:

But the legalization of MAiD has brought to the fore some disturbing moral calculations, particularly with its expansion in 2019 to include individuals whose deaths aren’t “reasonably foreseeable.” This change opened the floodgates for people with disabilities to apply to die rather than survive on meager benefits.

I’ve come to realize that euthanasia in Canada represents the cynical endgame of social provisioning within the brutal logic of late-stage capitalism — we’ll starve you of the funding you need to live a dignified life, demand you pay back pandemic aid you applied for in good faith, and if you don’t like it, well, why don’t you just kill yourself?

The problem with my previous perspective was that it held individual choices as sacrosanct. But people don’t make individual decisions in a vacuum. They’re the product of social circumstances, which are often out of their control.

It is not surprising to see Jacobin blaming capitalism for something done within the confines of a socialist system, but socialists go by the mindset that says if something is bad, it is the fault of capitalism, since socialism produces only happy results. But Appel is not wrong in pointing out that what began as a way ostensibly to end the suffering of terminally ill people has morphed into a program responsible for one in 20 Canadian deaths, with more than 100,000 people killed since the program began a decade ago, as Canada’s government did away with the requirements that only those with terminal illnesses could request doctor-assisted suicide.

Indeed, the government is happy to recommend MAID to people for a variety of reasons. An 84-year-old woman who visited a Vancouver emergency room with back pain was offered MAID by an attending physician, a suggestion the woman turned down. The government is even expanding its program to cover people with mental illness, including veterans who experienced PTSD as a result of trauma suffered in combat in places like Afghanistan, with MAID eligibility for these people coming in 2027. Appel writes:

In another instance, retired corporal Christine Gauthier, who is paraplegic and competed for Canada at the 2016 Rio de Janeiro Paralympics and the Invictus Games, was offered assisted suicide, with Veterans Affairs offering to provide her with the necessary equipment.

Gauthier had been fighting for five years to have Veterans Affairs provide her with a wheelchair ramp. They wouldn’t provide the ramp, but they would give her the means to end her life.

Most Critics Fail to Recognize the Real Reason Maid Exists

There are plenty of religious and moral reasons to criticize this kind of a program. Although many libertarians have openly supported assisted suicide (with some exceptions), it is important to separate the “right to die” movement from programs like MAID in Canada and in Europe, such as the Netherlands, which has had an assisted suicide law on the books for more than 20 years. Whether or not one supports such policies, as bad as many believe they are, it becomes much worse when government healthcare agencies are the entities recommending that people have doctors put them to death, as there is no way a program like this does not become coercive.

In a country like the US, the government cannot refuse medical care to someone who does not seek another doctor to end one’s life. In Canada and most European countries, that is exactly what the government can do. While entities as far apart religiously as many religious groups and Jacobin might decry the same things—for different reasons—they are united in their support for the welfare state and state control over medical care.

The Christianity Today writers and others in the evangelical camp such as World Magazine tend to frame MAID as a purely ethical issue, and while ethics obviously play an important role in all of this, none of these writers seem to understand that Canada’s government-controlled system has made good medical care even more scarce than it should be. It should be obvious even to someone like Appel that Canada’s system reduces the amount of available care, which should surprise no one who is familiar with socialism.

As noted before, many of complaints against assisted suicide are rooted in a belief that people choose to have medical providers kill them is because they lack resources. Appel writes:

An excellent piece from Global News reporters Brennan Leffler and Marianne Dimain, headlined “How poverty, not pain, is driving Canadians with disabilities to consider medically-assisted death,” notes the “excruciating cycle of poverty” that leads disabled people to choose assisted death, rather than live a life filled with barriers to their existence.

Appel then declares more government spending as the solution:

We’ve let the MAiD genie out of its bottle. There’s no going back. We must ensure that our health care systems have sufficient resources to guarantee everyone, regardless of ability or mental health, a dignified existence.

Appel, however, has it wrong. Poverty supposedly does not matter in the Canadian system because no one pays for medical care. This isn’t a case of Joe dying of liver disease because he can’t afford a liver transplant; this is about Canada’s system having shortages of doctors, equipment, medicine, and all of the other components of healthcare, and shortages are a feature of socialism.

In other words, the way to keep people from using the medical establishment from taking their own lives is to expand medical care, and since outfits like Jacobin see government as the only legitimate provider of health care, that means pouring even more tax revenues into the medical system. Yet, it should be clear that government control of the medical system—especially in Canada—has very predictable results: shortages and denial of care. 

More than 20 years before Canada instituted its MAID program, Jane Orient—a practicing physician—predicted that the Canadian system would find that the premature death of patients would provide financial savings to the program.

Writing about government-provided care, she likened it to providing only freeways to move automobile traffic:

Wouldn’t it be wonderful to have all the medical care you needed or wanted, without ever worrying about the bill?

And wouldn’t it be wonderful to drive to work every day without ever paying a toll or stopping at a red light?

The second question usually provokes much more critical thought than the first. Before people vote the money to build a freeway through their downtown, a lot of inconvenient objections are raised.

The first is this: Do we want to tear up the main business district of town?

The idea of “comprehensive health care reform” to “assure universal access” should stimulate the same thought process. To build such a system, you start by destroying the insurance and medical system that we already have.

She continued:

When we build a freeway, we don’t necessarily destroy all the other roads. In Britain and Germany, private medicine is allowed to coexist with nationalized medicine. But in Canada, it isn’t. If you’re a Canadian and want something the government isn’t willing to pay for, or you want it now instead of three years from now, you have to go to the United States.

A lot of proponents of “universal access” want to close the private escape hatch. They want no other roads, just the freeway. Of course, there may be some back alleys or secret tunnels or special facilities for Congressmen, but those won’t provide American-class medical care to ordinary folk.

Some think we don’t need other roads if we have a freeway. But remember what a freeway is: a controlled access road.

Orient continued her freeway analogy, noting that the Canadian system is not built on ensuring better care, but rather promoting equal care, even if that care might be substandard or even non-existent:

In Canada, you don’t have to pay to get medical care. In fact, you are not allowed to pay. Once the global budget is reached in Canada, that’s it. The on-ramps are closed. It doesn’t matter if you have money. Hospital beds are empty for lack of money to pay nurses, and CT scanners sit idle all night for lack of money to pay a technician. But if some people are allowed to pay, Canadians fear that some people might get better care than others.

In other words, Canadian care is more about people equally sharing scarcity than being able to get medical help for their ailments. She noted that the government systems like what we see in Canada routinely deny care for serious illnesses and medical problems, while promoting euthanasia as a solution:

The roadblocks are at the exits that lead to the hospital. The global budgeters “contain costs”—ration health care—by denying those things that you do need insurance to pay for: heart surgery, radiation treatments for cancer, hip replacements, things like that. Out of “compassion,” reformers may open another exit: the one that leads to the cemetery. Do you think it’s accidental that euthanasia and “universal access” are on the agenda at the same time? When government gets involved in providing health care, health care must be rationed.

Given that medical care is a scarce good, there always will be tradeoffs and some form of rationing. However, government systems discourage entrepreneurship and are more likely to be restrictive, increasing the scarcity problems and making it even more difficult for people to receive care that can make the difference between life and death.

Advocates of state-sponsored medical care claim that rationing by price is immoral, but rationing by bureaucratic decree is a moral imperative.

Thus, if Joe were to die because he could not afford a heart transplant, that would be immoral, but if he were to die because the government agency making those decisions denied that care, that would satisfy all moral criteria.

Conclusion

Assisted suicide is on the increase in places like Canada because it permits the government to deny medical care in the name of compassion and “dying with dignity.” It should not be surprising to see increased rates of doctor-sponsored killing running parallel with more government involvement with health care.

As we see more state involvement with medical care, the relative scarcity problems with health care will increase, and as medical scarcity increases, physician-assisted suicide rates also will rise. Death is already built into socialism, so we should not be surprised to see practitioners and advocates of socialized medicine welcoming the Grim Reaper as one of their own.

Perhaps the greatest irony is that the mainstream Christian groups (such as the Presbyterian Church USA and the Episcopal Church) that openly support the Canadian system and demand it be implemented in the U.S. are silent about the proliferation of medical suicide incidents, either ignoring the problem altogether or quietly supporting it.

Because they are blind to the negative effects of the massive state-sponsored intervention they support, their response to MAID and other assisted suicide movements is to call for more of the same.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/19/2026 - 23:20

Bulgaria's Former Pro-Russian President Set For Landsllde Election Win

Just as Europe's neoliberal establishment was celebrating the downfall of Hungary's Orban and his replacement with... another hard-line ant- immigrationist, it got some bad news on Sunday, as Bulgaria's pro-Russian former President Rumen Radev was set for a runaway victory in the election and may even secure a parliamentary majority in the poorest EU state, ‌exit polls showed, potentially ending years of weak coalition governments and altering the European Union member's foreign policy.

Rumen Radev, former Bulgarian president and leader of Progressive Bulgaria coalition, votes during the parliamentary election, in Sofia, Bulgaria, April 19, 2026. Reuters

An updated exit poll conducted by Sofia-based Alpha Research showed Radev's Progressive Bulgaria with 44%, far ahead of the long-dominant GERB party, led by former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, at 12.5%.

If confirmed, the performance, which outstripped opinion polls, would mark one of the strongest results by ​a single party in a generation, sideline a party that has ruled on and off for decades, and may see an end to the ​instability that has resulted in eight elections in five years.

"Progressive Bulgaria won decisively. This is a victory of hope over ⁠distrust, a victory of freedom over fear, and finally, if you will, a victory of morality," Radev said of the exit poll results during a press conference.

Radev, ​a eurosceptic and former fighter pilot who opposes military support for Ukraine's war effort against Moscow, stepped down from the presidency in January to run in the parliamentary election, ​which comes after mass protests forced out the previous government in December.

According to Reuters, Radev rode a wave of frustration with political instability in the Balkan country of 6.5 million people, where voters are sick of corruption and veteran parties that have dominated politics for decades. Alpha Research put turnout at 47% with one hour of voting to go, up from the 39% total in ​the last election in October 2024.

"There is now an opportunity for the things people have been hoping to see change to actually become visible," Evelina Koleva, a ​manager at digital marketing company in Sofia, told Reuters.

Final election results are expected on Monday.

In his campaign, Radev drew comparisons with Hungary's pro-Kremlin former Prime Minister ‌Viktor Orban ⁠when he talked about improving relations with Moscow and resuming the free flow of Russian oil and gas into Europe. He also criticized the EU for relying too heavily on renewable energy.

It is not clear how much his views will impact the foreign policy of Bulgaria, a NATO member on the EU's southeastern flank which joined the euro zone in January - a move Radev has criticised.

He said he would be willing to work on judicial reform with the pro-European reformist We Continue ​the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB) coalition, which came third ​in the Alpha Research exit polls ⁠with 11.3%. A minority government was also an option in the 240-seat parliament, Radev said.

"Bulgaria will make efforts to continue its European path," he said. "But a strong Bulgaria and strong Europe... needs pragmatism because Europe has fallen victim to its own ​ambition to be a moral leader in a world without rules."

GERB's Borissov appeared to concede in a post on ​Facebook, but added a ⁠note of caution: "To win the elections is one thing; to govern is quite another. Elections decide who comes first, but negotiations will decide who governs."

Bulgaria has developed rapidly since the fall of communism in 1989 and joined the European Union in 2007. Life expectancy has risen sharply, unemployment is the lowest in the EU, and the economy has ⁠greater safeguards ​since joining the euro zone in January. But it lags behind other EU countries in many metrics, ​and graft remains endemic, including in elections, where vote-buying is rife.

The cost of living has become a particular issue since Bulgaria adopted the euro. The previous government fell amid protests against a new ​budget proposing tax increases and higher social security contributions.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/19/2026 - 22:45

Washington's Renewed Russian Oil Sanctions Waiver Will Help Their Shared Indian Partner

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

Both benefit from this since the US wants to avoid India sliding into turmoil amidst the global energy crisis and possibly offsetting its envisaged role as a counterweight of sorts to China while more energy revenue from India preemptively averts Russia’s potentially disproportionate dependence on China.

The Treasury Department renewed the US’ Russian oil sanctions waiver on Friday two days after Secretary Scott Bessent said that this wouldn’t happen.

It remains unclear what exactly accounts for this flip-flop, but it’s possible that Trump 2.0 concluded that a deal with Iran might not be reached as soon as some optimists expected, so it’s better to keep Russian oil on the global market for another month to maintain global economic stability. Russia and the US’ shared Indian partner gains the most from this.

The IMF recently assessed that India will remain the world’s fastest-growing major economy for this year and the next at 6.5% growth in both, and maintaining this is imperative for both Russia’s and the US’ interests. That’s because India balances between both, having been perceived as tilting a bit closer towards the US in February after the interim Indo-US trade deal was agreed to but then recalibrating back to Russia last month due to the global systemic consequences of the Third Gulf War.

As was explained here in March when the US issued its Russian oil sanctions waiver for India before making it global, “The new world order that it envisages has India playing a prominent geo-economic and geopolitical role, especially vis-à-vis China, ergo why it temporarily waived the sanctions on Russian oil purchases in order to avoid India sliding into turmoil and possibly offsetting this scenario if it didn’t.” As for Russia, it supplies India not just to make a profit, but also to advance its own strategic goals.

These relate to relying on India as an alternative pressure valve from Western sanctions pressure for preemptively averting potentially disproportionate dependence on China and bolstering India’s new tri-multipolarity balancing act for accelerating the global systemic transition to complex multipolarity. Far from feeling like India “betrayed” it as Pepe Escobar falsely claimed last month, Russia recently offered to supply India with as much energy as it wants, which it obviously wouldn’t do if it felt “betrayed”.

On that topic, India had scaled back its import of Russian oil in January to 1.06 million barrels per day amidst speculation about its compliance with US sanctions as its trade talks with the US were nearing their end, but then nearly doubled this last month. According to the Times of India citing Kpler, “India’s purchases of Russian crude reached 1.98 million barrels per day in March”. April’s were 1.57 million barrels per day but are expected to rise next month after maintenance at a major refinery is completed.

India is therefore expected to remain the primary beneficiary of the US’ renewed sanctions waiver, which advances the US’ and Russia’s goals that were earlier described, but the US is also expected to end this policy and resume its secondary sanctions threats against Russia’s oil clients in the event of peace with Iran. Lavrov warned the world last month about Trump 2.0’s plans for global dominance, especially in the energy industry, which could take the form of pushing through the “DROP Act” in pursuit of this goal.

It’s premature to predict whether India would comply with future US pressure to once again scale back its import of Russian oil since it’s required to fuel its economic rise much more than the interim Indo-US trade deal is. At the same time, if Pakistan helps mediate a US-Iranian peace deal, India might want to remain in the US’ good graces to prevent the US from pivoting to Pakistan at its expense.

The interplay between these four and China, the US’ strategic rival, will determine the future of regional geopolitics.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/19/2026 - 22:10

"The Foundations Of Dollar Dominance Are Weaker than Anticipated..."

Authored by Christoph Gisiger via themarket.ch,

Economist Barry Eichengreen is one of the foremost experts on the global financial system. His new book examines 2,500 years of international currency history. In this interview, he discusses the fading hegemony of the dollar, outlines the coming global monetary order, and explains his growing concerns.

King Dollar is staging a comeback. Since the start of the Iran war, the greenback has been in demand as a safe-haven asset. The losses following the price slide at the beginning of the year against the Swiss franc, euro, and other major currencies have been recuperated.

Yet, although the dollar accounts for around 60% of global foreign exchange reserves and dominates more than half of world trade, its hegemony appears more fragile than ever.

"From the war in Iran to the tariff chaos and domestic political uncertainty, I fear that the Trump administration's actions are prompting the rest of the world to reduce its dependence on the dollar; “most obviously in Europe but elsewhere as well"

- Barry Eichengreen.

This is the conclusion reached by Barry Eichengreen. In his new book, "Money Beyond Borders: Global Currencies from Croesus to Crypto" , the US economist examines the long history of international currencies, from ancient coins to blockchain technology. He demonstrates that the same factors contributing to the widespread use of a dominant currency ultimately lead to its replacement.

As the professor at the University of California, Berkeley, and profound expert on the global monetary system argues, the dollar is now on the downside of this cycle. A major reason for its downturn is that political institutions in the US are weakened, including high public debt and attacks on the independence of the central bank. Likewise, America is no longer a reliable partner for international alliances.

“To me, the argument that the dollar is in a secular decline as the dominant global currency remains intact,” says Eichengreen.

In this wide-ranging interview, which has been lightly edited for length and clarity, he applies historical examples of leading currencies to the present and identifies potential winners and losers should intensify the flight from dollar assets.

Contrary to increasing doubts, the dollar has proven itself as a safe haven since the start of the Iran war. From a historical perspective, what are the central characteristics of a global reserve currency ?

There are some commonplace arguments about the foundations of an international currency. They typically center around the importance of economic size, commercial trading, preeminence, and economic and financial stability, including the stability of the currency itself. In my book, however, I also advance some unconventional arguments; domestic factors such as rule of law, separation of powers, central bank independence as well as representation for investors and creditors. Furthermore, I examine the role of international politics and the importance of alliances, which until recently haven't gotten the same attention.

What can be derived from this for the future of the dollar? Does the current recovery mark a sustainable turnaround? Or does the long-term downward trend that began in autumn 2022 remain intact?

I would anticipate a further decline because we have learned something new and important from the last year and a half: that those domestic political institutions in the United States are weaker. They're more fragile than we had concluded in earlier, more complicated years. Consequently, I think the foundations of dollar dominance are weaker than previously anticipated, and that the dollar is likely to continue ceding market share globally over time.

Why are aspects like the rule of law and strong, independent institutions important for a global reserve currency?

They are a key pillar of every dominant global currency in history, all the way back to the Roman Republic where the senate was composed of property owners and other elites who were interested in monetary stability. In political democracies, citizens maintain the power to vote out governments that fail to preserve monetary stability. So I worry that observers look at the United States and ask: if Donald Trump chooses to put his signature on dollar bills today, and then seeks to debase or devalue the US currency tomorrow, who is going to stop him? Will Congress stand up to him? Or the courts? It's very worrisome.

Within the Trump administration, however, it is argued that the dollar's function as a global reserve currency is a burden for America. How did this play out with previous leading currencies?

History suggests that widespread global use of a currency can have negative side effects. The currency tends to be stronger than it would otherwise be, which can create headwinds for domestic industry and exporters. You saw this in 13th- and 14th-century Florence, in the 17th-century Netherlands, and arguably in early 20th-century Britain. So I wouldn't dismiss it entirely, but a currency's value on the foreign exchange markets ranks about tenth on the list of fundamental factors determining the competitiveness of a country and its economy. Far more important are education and training of the workforce, investment in the capital stock and infrastructure, the innovative capacity of the economy, and the legal framework as I just mentioned in the context of the United States today.

What consequences does this have for the financial markets ?

At the beginning of 2025, all the discussion was about a “Mar-a-Lago accord,” the “debasement trade,” and the idea that the US might do something to devalue the dollar. This undermined the dollar's appeal to foreign central banks, corporations, and investors because they faced the risk of capital losses on their dollar-denominated assets. More recently, the discussion has shifted toward geopolitical uncertainties. For Europe, for example, it has become increasingly important to be more self-sustaining, more sovereign over its money and finances. This includes reducing dependence not only on the dollar itself, but also on the US correspondent banking system and the SWIFT network.

Nevertheless, the dollar's recovery has surprised many market participants in recent weeks .

The point I would make regarding the dollar's apparent recovery so far in 2026 is that in the first two trading days following the outbreak of the war in Iran, the currency strengthened by approximately 1.5%. That reaction was typical of the dollar's role as a safe haven, but 1.5% was a small gain by historical standards given the magnitude of the shock. Against the backdrop of this geopolitical and military turbulence, the surprise is that the dollar has not strengthened any more. So to me, the argument that the dollar is in a secular decline as the dominant global currency remains intact.

You mentioned at the beginning that military supremacy was one aspect of a leading currency in the past. How important is this factor?

Looking back at the 2500-year history of international currencies – from ancient Greece to the Roman Republic to the Dutch Republic to when Britannia ruled the waves in the 19th century –, economic or commercial power and military security have always gone together. They have always combined to support the cross-border use of the currency of that preeminent commercial and military power. Today, it seems that this kind of geopolitical leverage has two elements: first, you must possess a vast arsenal of planes and missiles; Second, you must also have a coherent military strategy. For instance, the Dutch East India Company was not only a trading power but also, de facto, a military power that secured the Low Countries' ports in the Dutch East Indies.

How does that stand today, considering the US actions in the Middle East?

It is evident that the US government lacks a solution for ensuring safe maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. So the fact that the US has a lot of planes and missiles is not sufficient. You have to have a coherent strategy, and that strategy should have, number one, a coalition of countries behind it – that's where alliance politics come in again – and a coherent objective. It's clear the US lacks those two elements in the present instance.

What is a historical example of how a reliable alliance policy promotes the status of a global reserve currency?

The best example is the United States itself after World War II, when the dollar durably became the dominant global currency. We provided dollars to our allies through the Marshall Plan and helped to build NATO in order to strengthen our political relations with those partners. So in the 1960s, when the dollar pegged to gold at $35 an ounce came under pressure, the governments in Japan and Germany supported the dollar because they were our alliance partners, relying on the US for military and geopolitical support. That underscores the intersection of geopolitics and global finance in cementing international alliances. We were a trustworthy alliance partner which solidified the dollar's role.

Today, that is no longer so certain. President Trump describes NATO as a paper tiger and threats that the US could withdraw from the alliance. As an economist, what do you think about that?

The importance of not succumbing to the temptation to think like an economist. We are trained to look for a coherent strategy on part of the US administration; and that also applies to maintaining the global role of the dollar. At one point last year, Trump has threatened the risk of increased tariffs on other countries if they moved away from the dollar. But almost the next day, he reiterated his desire for the Fed to cut interest rates and suggested how a weaker dollar would be good for the US. So I don't think there is really a coherent strategy here. From the war in Iran to the tariff chaos and domestic political uncertainty, I fear that the Trump administration's actions are prompting the rest of the world to reduce its dependence on the dollar; most obviously in Europe but elsewhere as well.

In your book, you also explain how superpowers in the past overextended themselves financially with military spending, which ultimately led to the decline of their currency. How great is this risk for the US, especially as President Trump wants to massively increase the military budget in the next fiscal year?

In 2021, I published a book with co-authors called «In Defense of Public Debt» . Between then and now, my view of the debt situation in the US has grown darker. I've modified my views in light of interest rates that are significantly higher today, as they make the US debt situation increasingly problematic. And now, we're on top of that more military spending. Given the deep political polarization, Congress is unable to reach a durable compromise that would begin closing the budget deficit. On all those grounds, continued high polarization, increased military spending, and higher interest rates, the debt trajectory is more troubling. This will be a powerful factor affecting the decisions of central bank reserve managers and others as they determine which currencies to hold in their portfolios.

But then the question arises: what are the alternatives? China, for example, is investing heavily in expanding its military power, but the renminbi's share of global foreign exchange reserves remains low and has even declined slightly recently.

The Chinese economy is continuing to grow faster than the US economy, and other countries use the renminbi in their trade with China. However, politics are an obstacle to China's aspirations to internationalize its currency and establish it as a true first-class rival to the dollar. So the questions regarding US politics apply to China even more powerfully. China lacks the separation of powers, and the rule of law is subject to whatever the Politburo and the president decide tomorrow morning it should be. Furthermore, there is no central bank independence. Since I don't see China's political system changing anytime soon, I doubt central banks and corporate treasurers around the world feel comfortable about parking their reserves in renminbi in Shanghai, in Chinese banks.

The independence of monetary policy is also a hot topic in the US right now. What can be expected from Kevin Warsh as the next head of the Federal Reserve?

I don't have expectations yet because he has a mixed track record, and his signals have been conflicting. He urged the Fed to tighten early during the global financial crisis, which would have been premature. He also had questions about quantitative easing during the global liquidity and deflation crisis when it was essential. More recently, he has flipped from supporting higher interest rates to calling for lower ones. Assuming he gets confirmed, he will be caught between a rock and a hard place. The hard place is that inflation will be going up to more than 4%, if you believe the OECD, and the rock is Donald Trump.

Which is the greater risk for the Fed regarding the rise in energy prices: an inflationary surge or a slowdown in economic growth?

The answer depends on your view of whether the energy shock and the rise in inflation are temporary or persistent. If the shock is temporary, the Fed should look through it and refrain from raising interest rates because inflation will subside. However, if the shock persists due to the war, the Fed must raise interest rates to dampen down inflation and preserve its credibility. It can't achieve anything else, including fighting unemployment, if it doesn't maintain its anti-inflationary credibility first in the face of a permanent price shock.

Let's try to look a bit further ahead. What can be learned from 2,500 years of international currency history about the future of the financial system?

If we have enough time, a few decades, I could envision a smooth transition in which the dollar's dominance declines toward a more multipolar global monetary and financial system. The dollar might then share its global role with other major currencies such as the Chinese renminbi as China opens its financial markets and deepens its financial systems' liquidity. The euro could also gain prominence, if the European Union achieves three objectives: completing the capital markets union, building a defense capability commensurate with dominant currency status, and moving towards the issuance of EU bonds, serving as the bedrock of euro-denominated portfolios. The third step, issuing more EU bonds, would require amending the Treaty of the European Union, which is hard to do. Additionally, digital technologies can make non-traditional reserve currencies better tradable. This includes the Swiss franc, the South Korean won, the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, the Singapore dollar, and the Scandinavian currencies. These could complement the currencies of the major economies, at least on the margin.

In this context, what are the prospects for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin?

Blockchain and distributed ledger technology represent an important innovation, offering alternatives to the dollar by providing payment rails that can be used to move tokens denominated in various currencies across borders for international transactions. The question is: what will run on those rails? Will it be plain vanilla cryptocurrencies like Bitcoins, stable coins, central bank digital currencies, or tokenized bank deposits? I would bet on a combination of central bank digital currencies and tokenized deposits. For example, there are lots of deposits in Swiss banks that can be tokenized and used for cross-border transactions through efficient distributed ledger technologies.

And what about gold? Central banks have been increasingly diversifying their reserves with the precious metal for several years.

Gold is there, although I would not expect its role to grow. You can only use it in financial transactions when it's stored at the Bank of England, the London Metal Exchange or the New York Fed. Yet, many central banks have been repatriating their gold for security reasons. Once repatriated, gold becomes sterile: it cannot be swapped or used as collateral for international financial transactions. So, we've learned in the last few weeks that the price of gold can go down, not only up; that it's a volatile asset and risky to hold.

What happens if there isn't enough time for a smooth transition to a more broadly diversified monetary system?

This is where my book ends. If confidence in the dollar is lost abruptly, there will be no alternative at scale, at which point interest rates will rise sharply and the liquidity needed for cross-border trade and finance will dry up. Essentially, 21st-century globalization would be at risk under such a scenario.

What probability would you assign to such a scenario?

The dollar's dominance is much like a massive iceberg melting slowly due to global warming. This process typically occurs at the edges and proceeds gradually, but a large chunk can suddenly break off. Figuratively speaking, the danger lies in the possibility that this melting could accelerate dramatically in response to external events, triggering a collapse. I cannot provide you a probability or a date, but I can share my feeling that we're closer to this nightmare scenario than at any other time in my life. I think we should all be much more worried than we have been in the past.

What should investors take away from this conversation?

I have to have two bits of advice. The first is that investors should read more history with an eye toward understanding the differences between the present and the future from the past. History repeats in different ways; studying it allows investors to discern unique shifts in economic structures and politics within the current conjuncture. The second bit of advice comes from my dissertation advisor, who was James Tobin at Yale. He won the Nobel Prize in the early 1980s for his contributions to portfolio theory. During his press conference on winning the prize, a reporter asked him to explain portfolio theory in non-technical terms. Tobin responded simply: “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/19/2026 - 21:00