Zero Rss

Trump Threatens To Jail Arms Shortage 'Leakers'

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

President Trump on Thursday threatened "leakers" with jail time over reports about dwindling US military stockpiles as a result of the Iran war, and claimed the US had plenty of munitions available.

"The US has massive amounts of ‘munitions,’ especially of certain types. Additionally, large amounts are being manufactured and shipped to the US as needed," Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Official White House Photo

"Defense companies are building the largest number of plants and factories in our country’s history. The 'leakers' of these treasonous statements are being hunted down," the president added.

Some of the most significant reports about the shortage of advanced munitions didn’t come from media reports but from analysis published by the think tank the Center for International Studies (CSIS), which used publicly available data to produce its estimates.

CSIS found that the US has used about 60% of its advanced Patriot air defense missiles and about half of its interceptors for the THAAD missile defense system, though sources told CNN that the US had actually used about 80% of its THAADs during the war.

While Trump says that US arms makers are working to produce more munitions, the current rate of weapons use far exceeds the rate at which they can be produced, and it will take years to significantly increase production.

Media reports have also said that the US has used up nearly all of its ATACMS missiles and Precision-Strike Missiles, which were both used extensively in strikes on Iran.

Trump also responded to a report from The Washington Post that said he lashed out at US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth over the munitions shortages, which one source told the outlet was part of the reason why Trump held off on his threats to dramatically escalate the war.

Sources told the Post that on the sidelines of a recent cabinet meeting at Camp David, Trump vented his frustration at Hegseth over the munitions shortages. The report said that Hegseth then blamed his deputy, Stephen Feinberg, for both the shortages and for failing to ensure Trump was informed about the issue.

Asked about dwindling US weapons stockpiles, President Trump on Thursday said there's a "virtual unlimited supply" of certain munitions and "we have others where it’s a little bit tighter" https://t.co/UFMSGvXiWa pic.twitter.com/lZtfbSuKgB

— Bloomberg (@business) August 6, 2026

"The Fake News, as usual, is spreading false and completely unfounded rumors. I am extremely happy with the job that Pete Hegseth is doing," Trump wrote on Truth Social. He said that the Post published the report "despite our telling them their story is completely FALSE" and added that he believed their "fake ‘reporting’ is treasonous."

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 14:00

Saudi Arabia's $5 Oil Detour Is Expensive... But Worth It

Authored by Leon Stille via OilPrice.com,

• Rerouting Saudi crude to Asia via Yanbu, Egypt’s SUMED pipeline and the Cape of Good Hope may add around $5 per barrel and up to four weeks to a voyage.

• That premium is small compared with the economic damage caused by losing access to Hormuz or Bab el-Mandeb altogether.

• Saudi Arabia’s alternative export infrastructure is not a temporary workaround but a strategic asset—although it cannot replace the kingdom’s wider need to diversify beyond oil.

The latest Saudi oil route looks absurd on a map.

Crude moves west across Saudi Arabia to Yanbu, north through the Red Sea to Egypt, across the SUMED pipeline from Ain Sokhna to Sidi Kerir, then west through the Mediterranean before tankers sail around the Cape of Good Hope to reach customers in Asia.

Oil that started relatively close to Asia first travels thousands of kilometres in the opposite direction.

The detour reportedly adds around $5 per barrel once extra freight, fuel, insurance and pipeline charges are included. For a two-million-barrel cargo, that approaches $10 million. Aramco is therefore considering a separate pricing mechanism for crude loaded from Egypt’s Mediterranean port of Sidi Kerir, because its normal Asian official selling price no longer reflects the logistics.

The immediate conclusion is that avoiding Hormuz has made Saudi oil structurally more expensive.

That is true. But it misses the more important point.

Five dollars per barrel is not only the cost of disruption. It is the price of having another option when two of the world’s most vulnerable shipping chokepoints can no longer be treated as permanently available.

Two chokepoints turned one contingency route into another

Saudi Arabia’s first line of defence against disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is its East-West Pipeline. It carries crude from the kingdom’s producing region in the east to Yanbu on the Red Sea, avoiding Hormuz completely.

That system has proved its value. Aramco says it ramped the pipeline up to its maximum capacity of 7 million barrels per day during the first quarter of 2026. Around 2 million barrels per day feed western refineries, leaving roughly 5 million barrels per day of export capacity.

However, moving oil to Yanbu solves only the first geographical problem. Asian buyers would normally take those cargoes south through the Red Sea and exit via Bab el-Mandeb. Houthi threats and attacks have made that route unreliable as well.

The newer workaround therefore does not avoid the Red Sea entirely, as some viral descriptions claim. It uses the northern Red Sea between Yanbu and Ain Sokhna, but avoids the Houthi-exposed Bab el-Mandeb passage by moving through Egypt and into the Mediterranean.

From there, the ship still faces a remarkable journey. It must leave the Mediterranean through Gibraltar, sail around Africa and cross the Indian Ocean back towards Asia.

Reuters calculated that the journey to Asia can increase from about 19 days to 48 days. Fuel costs for a tanker can rise from approximately $1.26 million to $2.87 million, before adding around $1 million in Suez Canal fees. Fully laden very large crude carriers may also need to discharge part of their cargo into the SUMED pipeline before transiting the canal and reload it at Sidi Kerir.

None of this is cheap or efficient.

But the relevant alternative is not the old route operating normally. It is a delayed cargo versus no cargo.

The $5 premium is smaller than the risk it insures

Oil markets are accustomed to treating infrastructure efficiency as a question of cents per barrel. Under stable conditions, that makes sense. Producers compete on transport costs, crude quality and refinery margins, while buyers optimise routes aggressively.

Geopolitical resilience follows different economics.

An extra $5 on an $85 barrel is a material cost increase, but it is small compared with the price spikes, refinery shortages and lost export revenues caused by a major supply interruption. Saudi exports were down by around 2.4 million barrels per day year-on-year during the recent disruption, while Gulf exports fell to only 36% of pre-war levels.

Even more importantly, the risks do not disappear the moment both straits formally reopen.

Iran does not need to close Hormuz permanently to influence shipping. Mines, drone attacks, seizures or even credible threats can raise insurance premiums and persuade shipowners to wait. The Houthis have demonstrated a similar ability to disrupt Red Sea traffic with relatively inexpensive weapons.

A reopened chokepoint is therefore not the same thing as a dependable chokepoint.

That changes how the detour should be valued. The additional route is comparable to spare generation capacity in an electricity system or a second supplier in an industrial supply chain. It may look expensive when everything works. Its value becomes obvious only when the primary route fails.

Saudi Arabia has maintained this kind of optionality better than many producers. Despite the severe regional disruption, Aramco reported 98.4% supply reliability in the second quarter, supported by the East-West Pipeline, storage, alternative terminals and its international logistics network.

The $5 premium is part of the cost of preserving that record.

Redundancy is becoming part of the barrel

The important shift is that Aramco may now need different pricing formulas for the same crude depending on where it is loaded and how it reaches the buyer.

Official selling prices, or OSPs, are the monthly differentials that producers apply relative to regional crude benchmarks. They normally reflect grade quality, market conditions and destination. A separate Sidi Kerir formula would make logistics resilience an explicit component of the barrel’s price.

That is not necessarily permanent for every cargo. If Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb become reliably navigable again, the longest route will lose its commercial appeal. Asian refiners will not voluntarily pay millions more for an unnecessary voyage.

But the infrastructure should not be viewed as stranded the moment normal shipping resumes. Saudi Arabia is already considering expanding its east-west pipeline capacity by as much as 2 million barrels per day. Yanbu is being repositioned from a secondary outlet into a strategic export hub. SUMED, Suez, Mediterranean storage and flexible tanker arrangements add further options.

The lesson of 2026 is that relying on a single efficient route can be more expensive than maintaining several imperfect ones.

This will influence investment decisions well beyond Saudi Arabia. Pipelines, terminals and storage assets previously judged as underutilised may acquire a resilience premium. Buyers may accept higher costs for supply contracts with genuine routing flexibility. Insurers and lenders will increasingly distinguish between producers that have contingency infrastructure and those whose exports depend on one exposed waterway.

The result is a higher structural logistics cost for some barrels, even if benchmark oil prices fall.

Better oil logistics do not solve Saudi Arabia’s larger problem

There is, however, a danger in celebrating resilience too much.

Saudi Arabia can spend billions making oil exports harder to interrupt, but it cannot make global oil demand permanent. Electric vehicles, efficiency, alternative fuels and climate policy will gradually erode demand growth. The kingdom ultimately needs business models that do not depend on exporting ever-larger volumes of crude.

Riyadh understands this. According to its Vision 2030 annual report, non-oil activities accounted for 55% of real GDP in 2025, while non-oil government revenue had risen substantially since 2016. Investment in tourism, logistics, mining, manufacturing, technology and renewable energy is intended to reduce the economy’s exposure to oil.

Those figures should not be confused with completed diversification. Oil remains central to exports, fiscal capacity and the financing of many non-oil investments. Some flagship projects are expensive, and turning state-led spending into self-sustaining private activity remains difficult.

Yet this is not an either-or choice.

Saudi Arabia needs to protect the oil revenues it still earns while using those revenues to build an economy that will eventually need them less. More flexible export infrastructure supports the first task. Vision 2030 is supposed to deliver the second.

The Cape route may add $5 per barrel. That is the visible cost.

The invisible value is that Saudi Arabia can still sell the barrel when the shortest routes become unusable.

In an oil market shaped increasingly by drones, missiles and maritime chokepoints, redundancy is no longer wasted infrastructure.

It is part of the product.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 13:20

5th Small Modular Reactor Validated Since June, Poised For Mass Production

Another small nuclear reactor has achieved “criticality,” marking the fifth new reactor type to be certified as operationally viable in the United States since June, after none were certified for more than a half-century, as the nation’s “nuclear renaissance” quickly advances to commercial mass-production.

Santa Clara, California-based Oklo’s Groves Isotope Test Reactor reached criticality on Aug. 5 at the company’s plant in Lockhart, Texas, and will produce isotopes for medicine, advanced manufacturing, scientific research, space exploration, and national security needs.

Unlike massive cement-siloed, utility-scale reactors such as the Westinghouse AP1000, the Groves reactor is a circular 22.5-foot-diameter nuclear generator that can be shipped by truck or rail and planted in a 35-foot-deep reinforced concrete cavity, making it a distinct entry in an expanding range of small, portable reactors on the cusp of being retail ready.

As John Haughey details for The Epoch Times, Oklo is one of 10 companies selected by the Department of Energy (DOE) in August 2025 to develop 11 “first mover” innovations under a reactor pilot program authorized by President Donald Trump in four May 2025 “Nuclear Renaissance” executive orders that call for licensing 10 new reactors by 2030 and quadrupling the nation’s nuclear energy capacity by 2050.

The president’s executive orders included incentives for three prototypes to reach “criticality” by July 4 to commemorate the 250th anniversary of the nation’s founding. That goal was eclipsed when Aalo Atomics’ Aalo-X became the fourth small reactor to attain criticality on July 4 after Antares Nuclear’s Mark-0 on June 4 became the first new reactor type in the United States to achieve the status since 1973.

With Oklo’s Groves reactor becoming the fifth to reach criticality in the last two months, Trump’s five-year goal for 10 small reactor types to be validated is already halfway accomplished. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said as many as seven would achieve criticality by year’s end.

The Groves reactor is one of two Oklo reactor developments that qualified for the pilot program. The company is also building a 75 megawatt reactor to anchor its Aurora Powerhouse Project at Idaho National Laboratory’s Materials and Fuels Complex, a prototype the company anticipates will be ready for “commercial operations” by 2028.

The Groves reactor is also one of two that attained viability in a privately owned plant rather than on the 890-square-mile Idaho National Lab near Idaho Falls.

“Thanks to President Trump’s precedent-setting directive to create the Reactor Pilot Program, Oklo’s Groves Isotope Test Reactor is part of the revival of America’s nuclear energy industry,” Assistant Secretary for Nuclear Energy Ted Garrish said in a statement. “We applaud the work of the Oklo, DOE, and Idaho National Laboratory staff who helped achieve this milestone.”

United States Energy Secretary Chris Wright speaks with Kiewit Construction Site Manager Marvin Robb (L) and Atlas Engineering Project Manager Hillary Hack during a June 25 tour of Oklo’s Aurora Powerhouse Project at Idaho National Laboratory. John Haughey/The Epoch Times

Built in a Year

During a tour of Idaho National Laboratory in late June, Oklo Co-Founder and CEO Jacob DeWitte said the company’s Groves reactor in Texas would soon reach criticality despite being built from scratch in less than a year.

The company began building the open, water-cooled reactor designed to supply domestic radioisotopes for medical imaging, cancer treatments, and national defense in September 2025, he said, and received DOE’s “substantial completion” certification in April, clearing it for criticality.

“It’s dang impressive that we hit substantial completion in 227 days, and that we'll be able to turn that reactor on in critical in less than a year,” he said. “We’re just waiting on the green light to take fuel, load it, and turn it on.”

That green light came late on Aug. 5.

“Reaching criticality in less than a year is an incredible milestone for our team,” DeWitte said in an Aug. 6 statement. “Oklo developed Groves from a greenfield site on private land, completed full-scale civil excavation and construction, manufactured or commercially procured all components, including fuel, and developed its operating programs in-house.

“Taken together,” he added, “we believe these accomplishments establish a new benchmark for the Reactor Pilot Program and set the stage for the future of advanced nuclear deployment at scale.”

The nation—the world—is poised to see “advanced nuclear deployment at scale” with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission expected this fall to adopt Part 57, a micro-reactor regulatory framework that trims license reviews from often more than a decade to between six and 12 months.

Under Part 57, when the commission issues a license for a prototype reactor, the developer doesn’t need further approvals to mass produce it. Public comment on the rule closed July 15. Commissioners are expected to debate and adopt a final rule no later than early 2027.

“Ordering one [reactor] is cool, but ordering 10 is a lot better,” DeWitte said in Idaho. “There’s a future for that, for sure.”

Oklo is engaged in multiple nuclear energy projects in addition to its Groves reactor and Aurora Powerhouse, including a fuel fabrication plant prototype to recycle fuels from Idaho National Lab’s Experimental Breeder Reactor-II, idle since 1994; a co-partnership with Nvidia in a fuel project at Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico; and its September 2025 contract with hyperscaler Meta to power a 200-acre data center campus in Pike County, Ohio, with a small reactor by the early 2030s.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 13:00

Exit Narrative Grows: Bessent Says New Deal & Ceasefire Will Open Hormuz 'Today Or Tomorrow' Summary

• Bessent: Hormuz could reopen under a 30-60 day ceasefire as soon as "today or tomorrow."
• Iran asserts that US & Israeli vessels remain barred until sanctions are lifted and compensation is paid.
• Trump says the conflict could "end pretty soon," signaling a possible final US exit.
• Iran remains defiant, pointing out it still has the leverage & can threaten Hormuz.
• However, the deal could reopen oil flows while strengthening Iran's control over the strait.

//--> //--> //--> Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Yes 13% · No 88%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Bessent: Today or Tomorrow the Strait will be Open; Iran Signals 'Compensation'

Iran has announced that under the 'finalized' Oman-Iran scheme and 'deal' for management of the Hormuz Strait that "enemy countries" (read: US and Israel) may only transit the waterway after lifting sanctions and paying compensation for the war.

While this was not issued by the Foreign Ministry or top leadership per se, it does appear to represent Tehran's overall position, after on Thursday it first declared that US and Israeli-linked ships will not be allowed Hormuz transit under the Oman plan:

Tehran Mayor says Passing through the Strait of Hormuz is subject to the lifting of sanctions and the payment of compensation:

"The countries that have attacked Iran will not have the right to use this strait until compensation is paid. Governments that freeze Iranian assets or continue to impose sanctions and threaten the nation will be deprived of this strategic boon."

While Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has appeared to back the Omani plan to reopen the strait, the US State Department has also newly warned on Friday that more 'decisive action' will be taken to cut off sources of Iran's funding. Bessent has newly stated that...

I think shortly, maybe even today, tomorrow, we are going to see an agreement, a 30- to 60-day ceasefire, and the Strait will be open.

This is somewhat surprising, but as we described below, it seems a final Washington exit is indeed in motion, even if it leaves Iran with greater leverage in the region. Like Trump's latest comments Thursday night, Bessent seems in 'mission accomplished' mode with this newly published interview...

Bessent on Iran:

We have them by the throat, and they've got 150–180% food inflation, not able to pay the troops.

I think shortly, maybe even today, tomorrow, we are going to see an agreement, a 30- to 60-day ceasefire, and the Strait will be open.

Energy prices should come… pic.twitter.com/C1vGuQUIRM

— Clash Report (@clashreport) August 7, 2026

This really does sound like 'it's finally over' talk...

Bessent on the Strait of Hormuz:

The strait is never going back to the way it was because the Iranians have used, or tried to use it, as a choke point.

What we are going to see over the next two years, the strait is going to become irrelevant.

It is going to become just… pic.twitter.com/LP8evMbeJP

— Clash Report (@clashreport) August 7, 2026 White House Largely Quiet on Iran-Oman Deal to Manage the Strait

President Trump's latest Iran comments came Thursday night, after a prior day wherein Iran and Oman unveiled their 'finalized' Hormuz management scheme, which most notably includes a ban on all US and Israeli vessels in the energy transit waterway. 

As we reviewed earlier, the White House has appeared to genuinely be searching for an exit strategy, but this stipulation alone may be too hard a pill for Trump to swallow, if accurate - given that it obviously leaves Iran in de facto control of the strait. Many pundits have pointed out it even leaves Iran with more leverage and power in the region than before the launch of Operation Epic Fury.

But this is why Trump's comments to reporters in the Oval Office Thursday evening are surprising, given that instead of reacting angrily and outright condemning the Iran-Oman plan, his reaction was somewhat muted and meager. Doves who see this war as disastrous and hope for quick exit will welcome the development.

via Reuters Trump: Going to End Pretty Soon

"I think it's going to end pretty soon. I don’t think they can go much longer," the president said, while leaving his meaning ambiguous. Asserting once again that the US is involved in negotiations with Tehran (something the Iranians have been vehemently denying all along), Trump added that "I think we’re doing fine."

The only thing Trump truly got angry about Thursday was related to the domestic side of the conflict, after US major media published several reports saying the Pentagon is perilously low on missiles and interceptors, which have been drained after nearly six months of war. He blasted 'treasonous' 'fake reporting' and even threatened to jail 'leakers' over the reports (the inherent contradiction says a lot here).

But again, Trump's penchant for raging against 'dishonest' and 'evil' Iranian leaders has been curiously absent over the last several days as the US bombs have fallen silent - after he called off planned 'harder' strikes over the weekend (or the last big TACO moment, among many prior).

This relative quiet at the White House comes even after Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf openly mocked the United States and Trump's theatrics and constant changes of course on X. He wrote Thursday:

"Massive attack coming… wait, never mind, they want to negotiate." That’s theater diplomacy on loop. Using bullying + broken promises + fake news as leverage is a failed strategy. Acknowledge the facts and fulfill your commitments. We don’t need more theater.

All of this change in Washington tone and posture suggests this could finally be the moment for a true offramp, as the US faces a 'go big or get out' realization, and as the prospect of slogging through months more of a developing quagmire becomes too politically and economically costly. This is potentially the declare 'victory' and get out moment. As former Congressman Ron Paul has put it: Just Walk Away!

Trump: I think the war with Iran will end pretty soon. I don’t think they can go much longer.

Q: Have you reached a deal to reopen the strait of Hormuz?

Trump: It’s sort of open right now. pic.twitter.com/J3lcPyuVwM

— Acyn (@Acyn) August 6, 2026

This is further evidenced in Trump's sudden realism, expressed late Thursday in the same Oval Office presser. When asked about the status of the Strait of Hormuz, he admitted that "it's easy for them to send a drone or two, drop a mine, or deliver a close range missile somewhere along, or in, this Waterway, no matter how badly defeated they are."

He further acknowledged: 

"People don’t want" to risk ships worth billions of dollars and expose them to the possibility of accidentally hitting a mine in the Strait of Hormuz, he conceded. Trump also claimed Thursday that Hormuz is "sort of open right now," although fewer than 10 ships per day transited from Sunday through Tuesday, according to Kpler data.

Of course, the US and Iran have been involved in several of these 'pauses' and cooling off periods before, which were later revealed to be the 'calm before the storm'. Tehran has since wised up and pointed out that the Pentagon used these interim periods of no fighting to just rearm, reposition, and ramp up military supply flights to the region.

Joe Kent: 'Good First Step' Toward an Exit

Joe Kent, a top national security official who resigned in protest of the Iran war upon the very start of the operation, is welcoming these signs that Trump is finally seeking to extricate the US from the conflict at all costs:

Trump is messaging that he won the war— this is a good first step in extricating us from what would otherwise be a catastrophic mistake. The reality is, the best “deal” we can make with Iran at this point that works in our favor is to just leave—it’s the only case in which POTUS then holds the cards.

He needs to “close the deal” now, before the Iranians force him back into a shooting war. We simply can’t assume that Iran will wait idly for us to make the next move. Alarmingly, it seems we are failing to account for just how aggressively killing the Ayatollah & bombing the girls’ school has radicalized Iranian leadership & its people—it’s very likely that Iran will feel compelled to drag us back into the war in order to force the U.S. to retreat, bloodied, both for the sake of its national honor & for deterrence.

Trump can end this by pulling our troops & ships out of the region now—deprive Iran of targets to hit and the leverage they need to escalate. Trump says we’ve won, therefore we can bring them home.

So either Trump is indeed preparing to go bigger, or this is - belatedly - the final 'cut and run' moment that probably the majority of the American public has been hoping for.

Another sign, via his Truth Social latest, that Trump could finally be willing to say 'mission accomplished' and get out, while letting the regional and oil transit 'chips fall':

Iran Hasn't Blinked

The deadly alternative to simply declaring an exit is an eventual introduction of ground troops and full-on regime change. Thankfully, Trump officials have continued to by and large condemn this as a legitimate scenario - given it would surely once again put US forces in a new 'forever war' that would last years or even decades.

Read our: Visualizing Iran's Vast Size & Why Any Ground Invasion Means Years-Long Quagmire

But in the meantime, the Iranians do smell weakness and blood in the water. Just before US markets closed Thursday, Tehran announced its forces attacked and struck 'hostile targets' at Qeshm island, near the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran is remaining defiant, and even sees itself in the driver's seat with its ability to wage asymmetric warfare against a much larger US foe which is confused on what to do next. This was also on display with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian having asserted this week in an interview, "Our enemies expected the country to collapse due to the pressures they have exerted." He added that these pressures have "reached their maximum".

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 12:40

Meet The Investors In SpaceX Who Say Their Shares "Disappeared"

Some investors who thought they had secured one of Wall Street's hottest trades, owning SpaceX before its blockbuster IPO, say the shares they expected to cash in on simply disappeared, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The controversy centers on special purpose vehicles (SPVs), investment funds that promise accredited investors exposure to private companies before they go public. After SpaceX's June IPO, several investors who bought into SPVs managed by Late Stage Management say they were stunned to learn the underlying SpaceX shares had allegedly been sold years earlier, leaving them without the windfall they believed they still owned.

The Journal writes that one of those investors, Virginia data engineer Ram Rupireddy, invested $17,250 in a Late Stage fund in 2020 after being told it offered exposure to SpaceX. Based on statements in his investor portal and 2025 tax documents, he believed he still owned the equivalent of 2,500 SpaceX shares when the company debuted publicly. At the IPO price, he estimated the position would have been worth more than $300,000. Instead, the firm later informed him the underlying shares had been sold in 2024, leaving him with roughly $45,450.

"The plan was to fund college education for both of my kids," Rupireddy said after filing a complaint with the Securities and Exchange Commission. He says he never received notice that his investment had been sold, and only discovered the change after temporarily losing access to Late Stage's investor portal, which later showed the position had been liquidated.

Another investor, who asked not to be identified, told The Wall Street Journal he experienced the same surprise. He said he believed he still owned pre IPO SpaceX exposure until after the company's public debut, when he was informed the underlying shares had already been sold years earlier. Like Rupireddy, he has since joined other investors seeking legal remedies, and told the newspaper an SEC attorney and an FBI special agent contacted him to discuss his experience.

According to The Wall Street Journal, at least four investors reported similar experiences, while roughly 150 Late Stage investors have joined a group chat to discuss potential legal action. One investor told the newspaper that an SEC attorney and an FBI agent contacted him about his experience. The SEC declined to comment on whether it is investigating the matter, and the FBI also declined comment.

Late Stage Management did not respond to repeated requests for comment. The firm is already facing separate legal scrutiny after three former sales executives pleaded guilty earlier this year to fraud charges involving hidden markups and fees, though prosecutors said those cases were unrelated to the disputed SpaceX shares.

The episode is also drawing fresh attention to the risks of SPVs, which often provide indirect "exposure" to private companies through multiple layers of investment vehicles rather than direct ownership of shares. As Davis Polk partner Jared Fine told the Journal, "Ultimately if you're investing, you want to make sure you own what you think you own."

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 12:20

Rockstar Founder Builds $300M Celsius Stake, Launches Activist Offense: Management "All Need To Be Fired"

Summary:

• CELH shares Jump on CNBC Headline 
• Rockstar Founder Amasses 5.7% CELH stake, Tells CNBC He Wants To Be CEO
• Thursday: Celsius Shares Crash As Revenue Misses Estimates

Rockstar Founder Begins Activist Move 

One day after Celsius Holdings crashed 18% following a dismal second-quarter earnings report, Rockstar Energy founder Russ Savage told CNBC that he has amassed a 4.7% stake, equivalent to more than 12 million shares, and wants to gut incompetent management and install himself as CEO in a bid to turn around the struggling beverage company.

Here's more from CNBC:

Savage's stake amounts to roughly 4.7% of the company and would be worth about $300 million at current stock levels.

While Savage has been quietly advising Celsius to change its cost structure and marketing strategy for over a year, he now says new leadership is needed.

"The CEO, the COO, the brand manager and the marketing manager all need to be fired," Savage told CNBC.

. . .

Savage, who was born Russell Weiner and started Rockstar with a $50,000 mortgage against his California condo, said he offered advice to Celsius over a year ago, but was largely ignored. He said Celsius has too many layers of management, with too many costs, and no real accountability.

"They need one person making the decisions, paying attention to every detail, not a group of people in a firing squad," he said.

. . .

"Once you lose shelf space, you're dead," he said. "The chains will give it to Red Bull or Monster."

Savage said he's offering to take over as CEO before the problems become too deep to fix. When building Rockstar, he said he managed every detail -- from sales and marketing to sponsorships, packaging, distribution and innovation. He said the same type of cost-conscious, driven leader is needed at Celsius.

"I'm publicly volunteering to do it," he said. "The CEO has lost credibility with the investment community."

The CNBC headline catapulted the stock 12% higher by late morning in New York. Shares have yet to recover all of yesterday's losses following the dismal earnings report. More details can be viewed below.

Latest short data from Bloomberg shows about 20% of the float is short. 

Squeeze candidate? 

Celsius Shares Crash As Revenue Misses Estimates 

Celsius Holdings, the Florida-based beverage company with a portfolio of some of America's top-performing energy drinks, reported weaker-than-expected second-quarter results, as revenue, adjusted earnings, and profitability missed Wall Street estimates.

Second-quarter adjusted earnings fell to 36 cents per share from 47 cents a year earlier, below the 41-cent Bloomberg Consensus estimate. Revenue increased 11% to $817.9 million but missed the $872.6 million estimate, with North American sales of $790.7 million also falling short.

Profitability deteriorated despite sales growth. Gross margin narrowed to 48.1% from 51.5% as promotional activity, channel mix, and aluminum inflation weighed on results. Net income fell 45% to $55.3 million, while adjusted earnings declined to 36 cents per share from 47 cents. Adjusted EBITDA dropped 12% to $184.2 million.

2Q Earnings Snapshot:

Adjusted EPS 36c vs. 47c y/y, estimate 41c (Bloomberg Consensus)

EPS 14c vs. 33c y/y, estimate 40c

Revenue $817.9 million, +11% y/y, estimate $872.6 million

• North America revenue $790.7 million, +11% y/y, estimate $847.3 million
• International revenue $27.2 million, +9.7% y/y

Gross margin 48.1% vs. 51.5% y/y, estimate 48.6%

Adjusted Ebitda $184.2 million, -12% y/y, estimate $198.4 million

Celsius shares plunged 16% in premarket trading. 

"During the second quarter of 2026, we made meaningful progress in advancing Celsius Holdings as a scaled portfolio of leading brands. We delivered a double-digit increase in second-quarter revenue, completed the Rockstar integration, and maintained gross margin near first-quarter levels despite a challenging commodity environment," CEO John Fieldly wrote in a press release.

Celsius Holdings' portfolio, which includes CELSIUS, Alani Nu, and the U.S. and Canadian Rockstar Energy business, accounts for about 20% of U.S. ready-to-drink energy sales. PepsiCo serves as the company's primary distribution partner.

Notably, the national average price for regular 87-octane gasoline remained mostly above $4 per gallon in the quarter, a key threshold at which consumer behavior begins to shift through trade-downs and reduced discretionary purchases. Goldman Sachs analyst Bonnie Herzog previously flagged a slowdown in energy-drink demand beginning in mid-May. Read the full note here.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 12:15

US Senate Pushes CLARITY Act Vote To September

Authored by Ezra Reguerra via CoinTelegraph.com,

Senate Republican leaders are expected to leave for their August recess without voting on crypto market structure legislation, delaying consideration of the bill until at least September, according to a report from Politico. 

Senate Majority Leader John Thune confirmed that the chamber would not vote on the legislation before the recess, citing Democratic opposition and saying it would be prioritized when senators return next month. 

“The Dems are insistent on no Clarity vote,” Thune said, according to comments his office provided to Cointelegraph. “I worked with sponsors of the bill. Senator Lummis was great, and we’re getting that queued up first thing when we come back.”

The postponement leaves one of the crypto industry’s top legislative priorities unresolved and compresses the Senate’s timetable for advancing the bill. Without sufficient Democratic support, Republicans may struggle to secure the 60 votes generally needed to overcome a filibuster.

Crypto Council for Innovation CEO Ji Hun Kim called the postponement “disappointing” but said the direction of the legislation had not changed.

“Every day without such a framework pushes American users and builders offshore and leaves consumers at risk,” Kim said in comments provided to Cointelegraph.

September delay narrows path for CLARITY Act

Thune’s remarks come after comments from Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott, who said on Thursday the chamber should hold its first vote on the CLARITY Act before the recess “without any question.” 

Scott said Thune still had time to schedule the procedural vote and that Republicans were gaining support for it. 

The CLARITY Act would establish a federal framework for digital asset markets and clarify how oversight is divided between the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Citing three people with knowledge of the matter, Politico reported that the CLARITY Act lacks Democratic support. Negotiations remained underway.

Thune may still file cloture before the recess. This procedural step could position the bill for a vote when senators return in mid-September, but it would not constitute a vote on the legislation, according to two people cited by Politico.

Cointelegraph also asked Thune’s office to confirm whether he intended to file cloture before the Senate leaves for recess, but has not received a response to the question by time of publication. 

The sources said Democrats have declined to approve a time agreement that would expedite the Senate’s remaining pre-recess business and allow the crypto bill to reach the floor. 

According to the report, Republican leaders would need unanimous consent from all 100 senators to complete the outstanding items without extending the session deep into next week.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 12:00

Consumers More Optimistic On Jobs, Financial Conditions, Stock Prices As Inflation Eases: NY Fed Survey

Unlike recent extremely volatile months, consumers expectations for inflation in July barely budged as disclosed today by the latest NY Fed Survey, which showed that inflation expectations in one year fell slightly to 3.6% from 3.7% prior. Estimates for price increases in three and five years remained at 3.3% and 3%, respectively, although the 3Y inflation forecast did dip notably, if not enough to move it by a significant digit. 

Gas price growth expectations rebounded partially after their sharp decline in June, increasing by 1.4% to 2.9%. 

Away from inflation, labor market expectations were mixed, with the mean probability of higher US unemployment rate increasing by 1.1 ppt to 42.8%...

... and the mean probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months increasing by 0.1 ppt to 14.2 percent; however, this was offset by the mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost, which increased by 1.3% to 46.2% the highest this year.  That increase was most pronounced among those who have a high school degree or less and those living in a household where income is under $ 50,000 per year. 

Earlier on Friday, the government employment report showed employers cut jobs in July and the labor-force participation continued to slide. The jobless rate declined to 4.1%. 

Recent data pointed to a strengthening of the American consumer. Spending rose more than expected in the three months through June, and the University of Michigan’s gauge of sentiment increased to a five-month high in July.

In the New York Fed report, more households said their current financial situation was better than last year, and more said their finances will stay about the same in 2027.

Still, the average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment in the next three months increased, especially among in households where annual income is below $ 50,000.

Consumers were also more optimistic about the stock market, with the probability that stock prices will be higher a year from now reaching the highest level of the series since April 2021.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 11:45

Hours After Murkowski Predictably Sides With Dems, Cassidy Unblocks Blanche AG Nomination

Sen. Bill Cassidy announced Friday he will support Todd Blanche's nomination for attorney general, clearing the decisive path for confirmation after two other Republican senators opposed the pick.

Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche appears before the Senate Judiciary Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington, July 15, 2026. 

Cassidy, a Louisiana Republican who had remained undecided amid weeks of scrutiny, made the announcement in remarks on the Senate floor. "Mr. Blanche is not perfect, and he will tell you this, but the choice is not between perfection and Mr. Blanche," he said. "It is between Mr. Blanche and another acting attorney general who may not run the department effectively under President Trump and who indeed may not be as good as Mr. Blanche." He added: "All considered, I will vote for Mr. Blanche. I'll be criticized for this vote. What's new?"

The decision came hours after RINO Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) declared she would not support Blanche. In a post on X, Murkowski said the country needs an attorney general "who will check the worst impulses of this administration" and that she lacked confidence Blanche is that person. She also voiced concern that confirmation would remove Senate leverage over a nearly $2 billion anti-weaponization fund intended to compensate people claiming they were unfairly targeted by the government. "The fund is only off the table because this nomination is pending and the Senate has leverage," Murkowski stated. "Once we vote, that will end, and there is no telling what the future holds."

Blanche, who has served as acting attorney general and previously as President Donald Trump's personal criminal defense lawyer, rescinded the order establishing the fund on Aug. 2. The move formed part of an agreement with Sens. Thom Tillis (R-NC) and John Cornyn (R-TX) that allowed the Senate Judiciary Committee to advance the nomination to the full Senate. Blanche said at the time that the department "always welcomes and appreciates productive engagement with all members of Congress."

Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), another RINO, announced earlier in the week that she would oppose Blanche, citing actions including an order shielding Trump and his family members from certain tax audits. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) remains absent while 'recovering from a fall at home', with no clear timeline for his return.

Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority. With McConnell out, Blanche could afford to lose only two Republican votes if all Democrats opposed him. Collins and Murkowski provided those two "no" votes. Cassidy's support supplies the critical 50th vote in favor, positioning the nomination for approval by a narrow margin even without Democratic support. All 47 Democrats are expected to vote against Blanche.

Cassidy had raised repeated concerns in recent weeks that Blanche might function more as the president's personal attorney than as an independent attorney general for the country. He spoke with Blanche multiple times, including meetings addressing worries about "lawfare" - prosecutions driven by political anger rather than valid legal grounds - and met with Murkowski as well. Despite those reservations, Cassidy concluded that confirming Blanche was preferable to leaving the department under an indefinite acting leadership that might prove less effective.

Before the Tillis-Cornyn deal, Trump had floated the possibility of withdrawing the nomination and waiting until senators facing reelection challenges or retirement were replaced in January 2027. Cornyn lost his primary, Tillis chose not to run, and Cassidy also lost his reelection bid after Trump-backed challengers prevailed. Collins advanced through her primary and faces a general-election contest; McConnell is not seeking another term. Murkowski's term continues until early 2029.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) on Capitol Hill in Washington on March 18, 2021. Susan Walsh/Getty Images Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 11:30

Scientists Warn Of Urgent AI Biosecurity Threat

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

For the first time, artificial intelligence has designed complete, functional viral genomes from scratch.

Oh dear.

Stanford University and Arc Institute researchers used generative AI models to produce 16 novel bacteriophages that successfully infect and kill bacteria in the lab.

Breaking News: Scientists have used A.I. to create new viruses for the first time, raising hopes for medical advances while also raising the possibility that the technology could someday be used to invent dangerous pathogens. https://t.co/MJG4mp0TTb

— The New York Times (@nytimes) August 6, 2026

Officials insist the viruses "pose no threat to people," yet biosecurity experts are already sounding the alarm that the same technology opens the door to inventing dangerous pathogens.

JUST IN – For the first time, AI has designed complete viral genomes, producing 16 functional viruses that infect bacteria and "pose no threat to people." — BBC pic.twitter.com/Le4lRSKN7q

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) August 6, 2026

The breakthrough, published in the journal Science, marks the first time generative AI has written entire viable viral genomes.

Researchers trained genome language models known as Evo 1 and Evo 2 on millions of natural genetic sequences. They then tasked the systems with designing complete bacteriophage genomes based on the well-studied ?X174 template that infects E. coli.

Of 302 synthesized designs, 16 proved fully functional: they assembled into virus particles, replicated inside bacterial cells, and in some cases outperformed the natural virus, even overcoming bacterial resistance when used as a cocktail.

Oh dear.

Brian Hie, assistant professor at Stanford who led the work, called it new territory. "This is a next step in the complexity that's designable by generative AI, this is the first time generative AI has been used to design a complete genome, it's something that can replicate and have other functions inside cells... this was new territory for us," he told the BBC.

The team deliberately excluded genetic data from viruses capable of infecting complex organisms and conducted the work in a secure laboratory. The resulting phages target only specific bacteria.

Patrick Cai, a synthetic biologist at the University of Manchester not involved in the study, called it "an important milestone."

Yet the same experts who celebrate the medical potential for phage therapies against antibiotic-resistant infections are issuing blunt warnings.

In an accompanying commentary in Science, Dr. Thomas Inglesby and Dr. Moritz Hanke of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security wrote that the findings raise "urgent biosafety and biosecurity questions."

They stated it is no longer a question of "whether generative viral genome design will exist" but whether it can be used without "enabling serious harm."

Oh dear.

New viruses with the potential to cause disease "should not be pursued," they added. "The ability to compose viral genomes using generative AI now exists; the governance to safely steer it does not."

Hanke has separately noted that one could simply prompt a genomic language model: "Hey, genomic language model, make me an influenza genome that is modified to be more transmissible or to be more lethal."

This is not abstract risk. Humanity already learned hard lessons when researchers mess with pathogens in laboratories. The COVID era exposed the catastrophic consequences of gain-of-function work and lab leaks.

Now AI is being handed the tools to design novel viruses at machine speed, far outpacing the regulatory frameworks meant to contain them.

The potential for misuse or accidental release is frightening. The only meaningful safeguard cited by the researchers themselves is a training-data filter - something that can be reversed by any team with access to broader viral datasets.

First article you find in a Resident Evil game https://t.co/6yNvWlhbLE

— 1/4 Black Garrett (@QTRBlackGarrett) August 6, 2026

Online reactions captured the unease immediately. One widely shared comment called the news "First article you find in a Resident Evil game." Others noted the same pattern: "No way this sort of virus randomly mutates to harm humans! Would never happen!" and "Modern scientists didn't watch 80's sci-fi horror and it shows."

This development arrives against a backdrop of repeated AI systems exceeding their intended bounds.

In July, an OpenAI model went rogue during testing, escaped its sandbox, and launched a cyber attack on Hugging Face after chaining exploits and stolen credentials.

This keeps happening.

Cutting-edge AI went on a hacking spree, concocting multiple fake identities designed to trick human engineers before covering its tracks.

During testing by a UK government-run AI lab, an advanced version of ChatGPT and Anthropic's Mythos went rogue.

In the most serious case,... pic.twitter.com/PFWFP5jmrv

— The Telegraph (@Telegraph) August 6, 2026

Meta says AI model accessed the internet and hacked another firm https://t.co/qBebzeboWU

— BBC News (UK) (@BBCNews) August 6, 2026

JUST IN: ?? Chinese company Moonshot's AI model breaks out and escapes from isolated test environment.

— BRICS News (@BRICSinfo) August 7, 2026

Earlier this year an AI coding agent wiped out a startup's entire production database and backups in nine seconds after "thinking for itself."

A tech entrepreneur reported his AI agent autonomously built itself a visual face and interface while he slept.

And when AI bots were placed in a virtual town for two weeks with clear rules against violence and chaos, they promptly went apesh*t - forming alliances, committing arson, and collapsing the simulated society.

These are not isolated glitches. They reveal systems that interpret goals, adapt, and act with speed and autonomy humans cannot easily interrupt.

Now layer onto that the growing chorus of voices who casually state that the human population needs to be halved.

"Scientists say halving the Worlds population could help save the planet"

Probably what the Boosters were designed to do anyway. pic.twitter.com/NKqRCvKwkB

— Concerned Citizen (@BGatesIsaPyscho) August 5, 2026

Recent research and commentary have revived the idea that reducing the world's people to around four billion by 2200 would ease pressure on the planet - framed as a "pro-human" strategy through voluntary measures, yet delivered with the same technocratic confidence that once dismissed lab-leak risks.

Scientists say halving human population could ease pressure on Earthhttps://t.co/w3EU3isiXy

— Insider Paper (@TheInsiderPaper) August 4, 2026

Imagine the same AI genome-design capability landing in the hands of those who view large-scale population reduction as a planetary necessity.

The tools that can design beneficial bacteriophages can, with different training data or prompts, design far more dangerous agents.

History shows that once a capability exists, containment relies on human restraint, institutional integrity, and enforceable rules - none of which have a perfect track record when power, ideology, or "greater good" justifications enter the picture.

The researchers emphasize medical upside: tailored phages that could help defeat drug-resistant bacteria. That potential is real. So is the reality that generative AI has crossed a threshold.

Complete, replicating viral genomes can now be written by machines. The governance structures that might prevent the worst outcomes remain incomplete.

What was once science fiction is now peer-reviewed fact. The only question left is whether the same systems that design the cure will one day be directed - or allowed to drift - toward something far darker.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 11:00

July Jobs Shock: US Lost 23K Workers, Below Lowest Estimate, As Unemp Rate Drops To 4.1%

Ahead of today's jobs report, in our payrolls preview we warned that "July Has Emerged As A Very Poor Month For Jobs" and boy were we right: moments ago the BLS reported that in July, the US labor force shrank by a whopping 23K, sharply lower from a downward revised 20K in June (from 57K), and the worst print since the negative 156K in February.

As noted above, the -23K print was below all estimates...

... and was a 5-sigma miss to estimates...

... as the 80K median estimate was missed by more than 100K.

And here come the Biden admin tricks of massive prior revisions: the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down by 66,000, from +129,000 to  +63,000, and the change for June was revised down by 37,000, from +57,000 to +20,000. With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 103,000 lower than previously reported

Yet despite the dismal Establishment Survey print, the unemployment rate actually declined from 4.2% to 4.1%, which was as a result of the number of Unemployed workers declining by 178K, more than the decline in Employed workers, which shrank by just 87K.

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for teenagers (12.1%) and people who are Hispanic (4.6%) declined in July. The jobless rates for adult men (3.9 percent), adult  women (3.7 percent), and people who are White (3.6 percent), Black (6.3 percent), or Asian (4.0  percent) showed little change over the month.

What is remarkable is that while this was only the first drop in Payrolls in 5 months, the number of actual employed workers has been declining pretty much consistently all year (down 6 of the past 7 months)...

... and in July was the lowest US employment going back almost two years.

Part and parcel with the sudden chill in the labor market was the big miss in average hourly earnings, which rose just 0.1% MoM (below estimates of 0.3% and below last month's 0.3% increase), which in turn translated into a 3.2% annual increase, also far below the 3.5% median estimate.

Some more details on the composition of the labor market from the latest jobs report: 

• Among the unemployed, the number of people on temporary layoff increased by 153,000 to 921,000 in July. The number of permanent job losers changed little at 1.7 million. 
• In July, the number of people jobless less than 5 weeks edged down to 2.0 million and is down by 344,000 over the year. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) edged down over the month to 1.8 million but changed little over the year. The long-term unemployed accounted for 25.5 percent of all unemployed people in July. 
• Both the labor force participation rate, at 61.4 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 58.9 percent, changed little in July. Since January, the labor force participation rate declined by 0.7 percentage point, and the employment-population ratio decreased by 0.5 percentage point. 
• The number of people employed part time for economic reasons changed little at 4.8 million in July. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. 
• In July, the number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job changed little at 5.9 million. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job. 
• Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force changed little at 1.8 million in July. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, was essentially unchanged in July at 476,000. 

And another disappointing fact when looking below the surface: the number of part-time jobs rose by 138K and is once again approaching a record high, while full-time jobs dropped again by 106K, and is down 6 of the past 7 months.

As the next chart show, the number of full-time jobs is the lowest in 2 years.

Taking a look at the composition of the labor force, in July employment declined in local government education and retail trade. Employment continued to trend up in health care. Some more details: 

• Employment in local government education declined by 50,000 in July, after showing little net change over the prior 12 months.
• Retail trade lost 19,000 jobs in July. Employment declined in warehouse clubs, supercenters, and other general merchandise retailers (-21,000) and in gasoline stations and fuel dealers (-5,000). Sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, book, and miscellaneous retailers added 10,000 jobs. Retail trade employment had shown little net change over the prior 12 months. 
• Employment in financial activities continued to trend down in July (-14,000), reflecting losses in credit intermediation and related activities (-9,000) and insurance carriers and related activities (-7,000). Financial activities employment is down by 121,000 since a recent peak in May 2025. 
• In July, employment in health care continued its upward trend (+22,000) but at a slower pace than the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months (+36,000). Employment in ambulatory health care services continued to trend up over the month (+18,000). 

In other words, there were two key drivers for today's big jobs drop:

1. Leisure and Hospitality jobs -40K (of which -26.1K restaurant workers and -16.1K performing arts, sports, amusement and recreation) which was mostly World Cup driven 
2. Local government jobs, entirely due to education (-50K), i.e. vacation.

And visually:

Commenting on the report, WSJ Nick Timiraos concludes that it was a "messy one", to wit: 

The July employment report will be a messy one for the Federal Reserve to read. New evidence the labor market is not reaccelerating could take some of the edge off the case for raising rates next month, but this is all still subject to better inflation data.

Officials held rates steady last week but three of 12 officials voted for a rate increase. A declining unemployment rate will continue to keep the focus on inflation data. 

Whether price pressures are building or fading will determine whether more officials conclude that they can no longer maintain their forecast for inflation to return to their target with rates remaining at the current setting. A mild inflation report would reinforce the case for holding (because two cool months in a row start to look like a trend rather than noise). A firm one would put the forecast back in doubt and give the dissenters a fourth vote to look for.

To summarize, this was a mostly disappointing report, yet one driven by one-time factors (teachers, world cup) while the unemployment rate dropped due to a quirk in the calculation. Does this mean that no Fed hikes are coming? While the market is suddenly much more confident that a September rate hike is out of the picture, it is likely that Warsh will simply wait for a less noisy report before making a decision. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 10:55

Meta Ordered To Pay $567 Million In New Mexico For Children's Mental Health Fund

A New Mexico state judge on Aug. 6 ordered Meta to pay $567 million into a fund dedicated to remedying the harm caused to children’s mental health by the company’s social media platforms.

Meta is the parent company of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp.

State judge Bryan Biedscheid said in a 68-page order that most of the total youth mental health fund, or $420 million, would go toward treatment services for children harmed by social media.

The remainder of the fund would be directed toward awareness and prevention, screening and assessment, referrals and coordination, and implementation, according to the order.

“The Court finds that the weight of the evidence presented demonstrates that Meta’s platforms are a cause of and substantial contributing factor to the youth mental health crisis in New Mexico,” the judge wrote.

Furthermore, as Aldgra Fredly reports for The Epoch Times, in his ruling, Biedscheid ordered the company to delete the accounts of users under 13, along with all personal information collected from those accounts, and simplify the steps for reporting underage users.

Meta was also ordered to disable push notifications on its platforms for users under 18 between 10 p.m. and 7 a.m. on all days, and from 8 a.m. to 3 p.m. on school days during the academic year.

The company is also required to implement mandatory usage time limits for those accounts and hide, by default, all like counts on their content unless a parent or guardian authorizes a change to the default setting.

New Mexico Attorney General Raul Torrez hailed the ruling as a victory for parents and children, saying that youngsters deserve to have a safer environment online.

“This case has always been about protecting children, standing up for families, and making sure that one of the world’s largest technology companies cannot profit from practices that endanger young people without consequence,” Torrez said in a statement.

Meta spokesperson Andy Stone said in a post on X that the company disagreed with the ruling and planned to appeal, noting that Meta had been working to remove bad actors and harmful content from its platforms.

“We remain confident in our record of protecting teens online and will continue to defend ourselves against claims that misrepresent the facts,” Stone said.

The latest penalty comes on top of the $375 million fines that a New Mexico jury imposed on Meta in March for violating the state’s Unfair Practices Act by failing to disclose the potential risks of its social media platforms to children.

New Mexico sued Meta in December 2023, alleging that the company’s social media platforms served as a “breeding ground” for predators targeting children for human trafficking, sexual image distribution, grooming, and solicitation.

Meta denied the allegations, saying at the time that it uses advanced technology to root out bad actors and employs child safety experts. The company also said that it shares information and tools with other companies and law enforcement, including state attorneys general, to help identify predators.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 10:40

Wall Street Crowns First Solar As Clear Winner After Trump's Polysilicon Tariffs Create "Structural Floor" For Industry

Solar stocks are shining in premarket trading in New York after the Trump administration announced a new 15% tariff and a price floor on imports of polysilicon derivatives, including silicon wafers, photovoltaic cells, and solar modules. The move is intended to secure the domestic solar supply chain after years of cheap Chinese panels flooding the country, making it uneconomical for domestic manufacturers to compete.

"Polysilicon is the base material underpinning the security of America's semiconductor and solar-power supply chains. Yet for decades, America has allowed foreign countries to weaken United States producers in the polysilicon sector ‑- eroding our economic and national security. Today, I am taking action to put a stop to these practices and revitalize the United States polysilicon sector," President Trump wrote in an overnight executive order.

The Trump administration's order is less a conventional tariff increase and more of a reset of the US solar-module pricing regime. The new framework, combining a 15% tariff with minimum import prices, could lift utility-scale module prices into the low-to-mid 40-cent-per-watt range from roughly 30 cents.

Analysts from several desks, including BMO Capital Markets, Truist Securities, Citi, and others, point to First Solar as the clear winner.

"We expect the immediate market reaction to favor FSLR given enhanced long-term pricing power and terminal value implications, while utility solar-exposed names including NXT, ARRY, SHLS and FLNC could face near-term pressure as investors reassess project economics and deployment costs," BMO analyst Ameet Thakkar wrote.

Thakkar noted, "In this report we analyze the structure and implementation of the new tariff framework, the implications for module pricing and domestic manufacturing economics, potential upside to FSLR valuation and ASPs, the 120-day implementation window, and our continued constructive view on NXT despite likely near-term volatility."

Moses Sutton at BNP Paribas outlined FSLR as the "biggest, long-awaited winner" and highlighted how a new "structural 'floor' for industry" is being created.

What other desks are saying (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Citi

• Analyst Vikram Bagri notes that the polysilicon tariffs are largely in line with expectations and sees upside for First Solar
• "For FSLR, the benefits are a minimum import price for poly/cells/ingots/wafers/modules, which may be adjusted at Commerce's discretion to reflect market conditions, a 15% ad valorem on downstream poly derivatives, application to warehoused inventory plus anti-stockpiling provisions"
• Notes that countries that adopt their own minimum import price may be able to claim favorable treatment for their exports to the US, which would be negative for US firms

Truist Securities

• Analyst Christopher Souther sees First Solar as the biggest beneficiary of the tariffs and notes that the company's module price is below the minimum import price
• "In our view, this further reinforces First Solar's competitive moat, as the company already benefits from a US-based manufacturing footprint, Section 45X tax credits, and existing trade protections"
• Notes that the exemption paths for US module manufacturers may reduce the benefit for First Solar in out years

Barclays

• Analyst Christine Cho sees the polysilicon tariffs raising the cost of imported modules to around $0.44 per watt
• "The Section 232 outcome is more positive for FSLR than we and the Street were expecting and would seem to support ASPs to move somewhere in the low to mid $0.40/w range"

In premarket trading, FSLR is up 4%, Enphase Energy +2%, Array Technologies +2%, SolarEdge Technologies +2%, and T1 Energy +6%. The Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) is up nearly 3%. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 10:10

Houston, We Have A (Data) Problem...

Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities,

Normally, you can find some parts of the job report that “fight” against the headline. That somewhere in the details is a potentially different narrative.

Maybe it’s because I’m lazy on a summer Friday, but difficult to see what it is in this report.

But let’s start with the most important point

Instead of worrying about Warsh, what he did or didn’t say, how often he might or might not say things, to who he may or may not speak to, maybe we should worry about making decisions based on garbage data?

As you know, I’ve argued for years that it seems insane that in this day and age, where we have real time data on almost every aspect of our lives, we are content to kind of stick a finger in the air, and take a wild stab at estimating jobs. I think the data source task force is the most important (and potentially useful thing Warsh has created). The data task force is too limited in scope, if anything.

Establishment headline is -23k. Estimate was 80k.

Revisions for past two months were -103k! Maybe the estimate would not have been for 80k, if the initial reports for the prior months reflected reality and didn’t need to be revised lower?

Not sure this is “good” news for the workers, but wage growth was anemic (even as the renewed fighting in the Middle East is pushing up the price of energy products).

The unemployment rate has dropped from 4.3% to 4.1% in the past two months. On the surface, maybe that is good. But the unemployment rate is based on the household survey which had a loss of 87k this month, which is “better” than last month’s loss of 507k jobs. The 4 month total number of jobs in the household survey is month than 600,000 lost jobs! The unemployment rate is only lower because the participation rate has dropped from 61.8% to 61.4% in two months (let’s not forget, this is occurring with record cap ex on data center/AI build).

Okay, now my “favorite” the birth/death model. I will admit I’m not sure how the seasonally adjusted birth/death model translates into a number of jobs in the establishment survey, but this “model” showed 235k jobs added by new businesses being formed. Maybe companies are being formed to take advantage of the AI/Data Center spend. It is in line with last July’s birth/death adjustment, so maybe it didn’t impact things. But I always struggle when “plugs” or “models” seem to be bigger than the actual numbers.

Honestly, I have no idea if today’s numbers are the aberration or whether it was what was originally reported, but that is the point!

How are we making decisions based on data that seems to be a wild guess (apologies to wild guesses)?

Sure, if there is no way to get better, more accurate, timely data, then we’d have to live with it. We had to live with carrier pigeons at one time.

I find it difficult to believe that a nation that put astronauts on the moon, cannot figure out a better way to calculate data that is so crucial to decision making!

So, yes, Houston, we have a problem, but the bigger problem isn’t today’s numbers, it is that we don’t really know what numbers are correct or not!

On the other hand, my view that we don’t see a hike this year looks better today, than it did a week ago (and that is with no “deal” in Iran, which any deal, will also help).

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 09:40

Islamic Society Sues City Over Rejection Of Mosque Proposal

Authored by Tom Gantert via The Epoch Times,

The Islamic Society of Tulsa has filed a federal lawsuit against the City of Broken Arrow, Oklahoma, and four individual city council members after the city denied its request to build a mosque and Islamic community center.

The suit, which was filed on Aug. 3, alleges the denial violated the U.S. Constitution, the federal Religious Land Use and Institutionalized Persons Act, and Oklahoma law by discriminating against Muslims.

The city of Broken Arrow said in an email to The Epoch Times that it does not comment on lawsuits. The city acknowledged on July 28 that the U.S. Department of Justice had started an investigation into the matter.

“The City Council and Administration are fully engaged with the DOJ in its investigation,” the city stated, adding it would have no further comment.

The DOJ’s Civil Rights Division is investigating whether Broken Arrow violated the Religious Land Use and Institutionalized Persons Act after denying the rezoning application for the Islamic Society of Tulsa.

According to the complaint, the Islamic Society of Tulsa bought about 15 acres of land in Broken Arrow in 2014 with the intention of building a mosque, a community center, and a small commercial development.

City planning staff concluded the proposal complied with the city’s comprehensive plan and recommended approval. The Broken Arrow Planning Commission also voted to recommend approval after a lengthy public hearing.

The lawsuit claims the proposal was rejected by the City Council after “a wave of bigoted opposition from members of the community and local politicians.”

Despite recommendations from city staff and the Planning Commission, the City Council voted 4–1 on Jan. 12 to deny both the rezoning request and the conditional use permit.

The lawsuit further alleges the city approved similar rezoning and permitting requests for Christian churches and commercial developments while allowing those applicants to address traffic and engineering issues later in the approval process.

The complaint seeks a court order allowing the project to proceed, a declaration that the city’s actions were unlawful, and monetary damages including attorneys’ fees.

It also notes the DOJ’s investigation into whether the city violated federal religious land-use protections.

Oklahoma Attorney General Gentner Drummond is asking the Trump administration to halt the DOJ investigation.

In a letter to President Donald Trump and acting U.S. Attorney General Todd Blanche, Drummond called the investigation “federal overreach” and said land-use decisions should be left to state and local officials.

Drummond also asked the DOJ to withdraw requests for records involving private citizens, require senior-level approval for any further investigative steps, and coordinate with the Oklahoma Attorney General’s Office before taking additional action against Oklahoma municipalities.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 09:20

Bonds & Bullion Jump, Dollar Dumps As Rate-Hike Odds Slump After Payrolls Miss

As we noted in our preview, today's payrolls print was indeed "bad news is good news" as the surprise five-sigma miss (-23k) on payrolls (albeit with a drop in the unemployment rate) sent rate-hike odds reeling lower...

“History doesn’t repeat, but sometimes it rhymes. For the third time in as many years, July jobs data saw a mid-summer loss of momentum. While incoming inflation data will be the ultimate arbiter, slowing jobs growth helps support a September hold,” says Lindsay Rosner, head of multi sector fixed income investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

That helped smash Treasury yields lower, led by the short-end...

...which in turn crushed the dollar...

...lifting gold above $4350...

Some good news for Bessent, JPY is strengthening...

Stocks are also soaring, with Nasdaq leading the way...

Admittedly, as JPMorgan's Feroli flagged, technical effects such unwinding of World Cup-related hiring could have driven the softer payroll print...

Jeffrey Rosenberg, a portfolio manager at BlackRock, says on Bloomberg TV, “I’d be hesitant to just write this report off.”

He says that the decline in the unemployment rate essentially reflects a drop in the supply side of the labor market. 

... but for now, the panic among the Fed whisperers that Warsh has unleashed more uncertainty (and is driving up the term premium) is now a back story as attention shifts from inflation back to growth.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 09:05

Winter Is Coming: Europe Faces Twin Diesel And NatGas Crunch

Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, began the week by telling Bloomberg TV that the global diesel-supply crunch is "what keeps her up at night." She followed up Wednesday with a client note warning that European natural gas storage levels are also lagging the seasonal average ahead of the winter heating period.

Benchmark TTF futures have fallen 7% this week to about 54 euros per megawatt-hour, but Dart maintained her 60-euro balance-of-third-quarter forecast. She noted that Northwest European LNG imports missed July expectations by 2.1 million tons on an annualized basis, leaving storage just 43% full at month-end versus the 45.5% projected.

The latest Bloomberg data shows that Europe's NatGas storage is about 57.87% full, roughly 18 percentage points below the 2009–25 average.

"Specifically, the July miss in European LNG imports (and the resulting miss in storage fill) vs our expectations suggest that European gas storage still has some catching up to do, while LNG supply availability remains uncertain," Dart wrote in the note.

Dart continued, emphasizing that Europe must accelerate NatGas injections to reach her 67% storage target by the end of October. Higher potential Qatari exports, weaker Asian spot demand and reduced Egyptian imports could free additional cargoes for Europe, though an early drop in TTF prices risks redirecting LNG back toward Asia.

Dart warned that if Gulf energy exports recover only gradually, December TTF prices may need to exceed 100 euros to curb Asian demand. A faster reopening of the Hormuz maritime chokepoint could push prices to 40 euros.

Dart continued:

On net, we still see risks to our winter TTF price forecast skewed to the upside. In a scenario where Middle East energy exports normalize only gradually through 2027, we estimate that Dec26 TTF would likely need to move above 100 EUR/MWh, 110% above our 50 EUR/MWh base case, to significantly discourage Asia LNG demand. In contrast, we estimate that a faster-than-expected ramp of Hormuz flows would allow TTF to sell off back in line with the coal-to-gas switching threshold of 40 EUR/MWh, 20% below our current Dec26 TTF price base case.

Putting it all together, if disruptions in the Hormuz persist, Europe could enter winter with NatGas and diesel inventories well below seasonal norms, setting the stage for another surge in energy prices.

Professional subscribers can read more NatGas notes at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 08:55

Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan Sign Islamic NATO-Style Defense Pact Amid Iran War

On Friday Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed a major defense agreement as leaders gathered in the city of Makkah, Saudi Arabia. It seeks to strengthen joint deterrence and expanding defense cooperation, the Saudi Press Agency reported.

It is essentially a NATO-style agreement for the 'Muslim world' - given that it stipulates and formalizes that an armed attack on any of the countries will be treated as an attack against all of them.

Formally called the Makkah Joint Defense Agreement, it "reflects the three nations’ commitment to bolstering their collective security and promoting peace, security and stability in the region and the wider world," SPA reported.

The combined estimated population of these Muslim-majority countries is 380 million people, or according to the high estimates... approaching 400 million.

Al Jazeera comments on the significance of the historic pact as follows:

This is more than a diplomatic get-together and the signing of an agreement.

This essentially puts three of the largest Muslim populations together on the roadmap for joint peace, for deterring any act of aggression against them, for making sure that they are in tune with each other when it comes to intelligence sharing, gathering all of the information that is required, and also enhancing cooperation in all sorts of spheres – whether it’s energy, defence expenditure or manufacturing, among others.

Pakistan brings with it, obviously, its nuclear arsenal, battle-hardened military, and munitions it has been supplying. Turkiye, with its advanced drone and munitions systems, is a NATO member, combined with the economic power of Saudi Arabia.

The three of them combined now present a force that will take this region towards a different security architecture than the one in place over the last few decades, especially in the wake of the Iran war.

Indeed this further formalizes Pakistan's nuclear umbrella for Saudi Arabia, which lacks atomic weapons. Turkey does not have its own nukes either, but plays host to US nuclear weapons as part of NATO. Turkey maintains the second-largest military within the NATO alliance, behind the United States.

Pakistan and Saudi Arabia already have a bilateral defense pact, somewhat recently inked, which has lately seen Islamabad deploy 8,000 troops, a ​squadron of fighter jets, and an air defense system to Saudi Arabia.

The Saudi kingdom has lately been subject of sporadic 'retaliatory' attacks from Iran in the context of the war, and has earlier even responded by launching numerous unpublicized strikes on Iran.

And so already on the inking of the historic Makkah Joint Defense Agreement, one of the signatories finds itself (unwillingly) on the front lines of a conflict - given it also plays host to American forces - though isn't necessarily a key, direct participant in it. The Saudis have thus far relied largely on US defenses to protect themselves.

Turkey has opposed Trump's Operation Epic Fury, and is an avowed enemy of Israel - and so this pact will only serve to further distance Saudi Arabia from entering the Abrahama Accords and establishing lasing normalization with Israel.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 08:35

Can Sam Altman Be Trusted Inside Your Home? Meet OpenAI's New Always-On Smart Speaker

Trust remains OpenAI's biggest problem. Sam Altman's public feud with Elon Musk, combined with Apple's allegations that OpenAI stole trade secrets, has only intensified concerns surrounding the company's leadership and governance.

Amid this glaring trust issue, OpenAI now wants to place what Bloomberg describes as "essentially a smart speaker without a display" inside millions of homes.

Equipped with microphones, cameras, and environmental sensors, the $300 device would function as an always-on intelligence platform, potentially collecting voice, visual, behavioral, and household data.

OpenAI’s first device is a smart speaker without a display and costs $300+. Here is a ChatGPT mock-up based on article:

▫️doughnut/ring shape
▫️size of a hockey puck
▫️have camera, speakers, microphone, lights
▫️interactive moving parts to make it feel “more alive” than… https://t.co/xmlPJniAd1 pic.twitter.com/qf1THJFNwT

— Trung Phan (@TrungTPhan) August 6, 2026

The unresolved question is not what the device can perceive, but what OpenAI will retain, analyze, and ultimately monetize.

Bloomberg added more color on the device:

OpenAI is looking to break new ground with the product, which is slated for release in 2027. The device will be positioned as an AI-first computer that can help users get things done, the people said.

OpenAI's smart speaker was designed with Jony Ive's LoveFrom studio and represents the startup's first major push into consumer hardware. Apple's lawsuit alleging the misuse of proprietary metal-finishing techniques could complicate the rollout, though OpenAI denies the claims and insists it is building something fundamentally different from Apple's products.

Amazon's Alexa devices and other smart speakers have already exposed major privacy risks to consumers. OpenAI's ambition to learn users' routines, observe their surroundings, and personalize interactions raises these concerns even higher, particularly when trust in Altman's AI startup remains complicated.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 08:30

Futures Rise Ahead Of Closely Watched Jobs Report

US futures grind higher in a European session devoid of newsflow ahead of nonfarm payrolls. As of 815am ET, S&P futures rose 0.2% while Nasdaq futures gained 0.4%, with some of yesterday’s beaten up tech names such as Sandisk and Western Digital getting some reprieve in the premarket. Asian stocks swung between a loss of as much as 0.5% and gain of 0.4%. South Korea’s Kospi declined as much as 2.2% before paring the loss; the index was headed to its seventh weekly drop, longest losing streak in more than three years. Nikkei and Taiex indexes also drift lower while indexes rose in mainland China.  Oil was given a boost in APAC hours as progress on an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remained elusive and a report noted that Iran attacked “hostile targets” in the Strait of Hormuz; but upside has since wavered with Brent now in the red and near session lows. US yields which track oil tick for tick, are down around 1bps across the curve with odds of a September Fed hike at around 60% as the clock ticks down to jobs data. The dollar is down 0.1% after posting its biggest advance in two weeks during the New York session. USD/JPY is maintaining its position on a 158 handle. Precious metals are marching higher with spot gold trading on a $4300/oz handle for the first time since mid-June. Bitcoin is up 0.7%. On today's calendar we get the US July jobs report; other data releases include NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations, June consumer credit. The Fed’s Barkin will also speak today.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Tesla +0.7%, Amazon +0.6%, Alphabet +0.1%, Nvidia +0.1%, Apple -0.2%, Meta -0.4%, Microsoft -0.5%)

• Applied Opto (AAOI) is up 14% after second-quarter earnings and revenue from the fiber-optic networking gear firm beat estimates. Peers including Fabrinet and Coherent gain.
• Atlassian (TEAM) soars 32% after the maker of Trello collaborative software reported an increase in quarterly revenue, easing concerns that AI would hurt the business.
• Cloudflare (NET) rallies 17% after the software company hikes its annual profit forecast, beating the average analyst estimate.
• DraftKings (DKNG) shares slip 3.6% in premarket trading after the sports-betting company reported revenue and adjusted Ebitda for the second quarter that fell short of the average analyst estimate.
• Doximity (DOCS) soars 78% after the company raised its revenue forecast for fiscal 2027.
• Figs (FIGS) jumps 29% after the medical-apparel maker posted a beat on second quarter results and upped its forecast for full-year adjusted Ebitda margin.
• Gold and silver stocks are rising in premarket Friday, with gold on track for its best week in more than six months as dip buyers supported prices.
• Maplebear Inc. (CART), doing business as Instacart, jumps 12% after the company’s forecast for third-quarter gross transaction value beat the average analyst estimate.
• Sezzle (SEZL) slides 22% as analysts look past the financial technology firm’s outlook upgrade for 2026, and say expectations had already built up around the earnings following the stock 181% year-to-date rally.
• Solar stocks rise in premarket Friday after President Donald Trump ordered new 15% tariffs and a price floor for imports of polysilicon derivatives, including silicon wafers, photovoltaic cells and solar modules.
• Sweetgreen (SG) sinks 15% after the salad chain cut its annual outlook after warning that diners are less willing to eat fresh prepared foods during the cyclospora outbreak.
• Trade Desk (TTD) tumbles 27% after the advertising technology company#s reported earnings for the second quarter and gave a third-quarter-revenue forecast that missed analyst estimates. At least four brokerages downgraded their rating on the stock

In other news, SK Hynix plans a 54 trillion won ($38 billion) expansion of its DRAM and NAND manufacturing in South Korea, part of the giant outlay announced earlier in the summer. Jane Street is negotiating with investors in a private-credit deal to rework the firm’s $11 billion debt load and limit its financial disclosures to market participants. The FAA has asked operators of 471 Boeing 737 Max jets to undertake checks for cracks of a component that could undermine the structural integrity of the aircraft.

Ahead of today's main event, the July jobs data at 8:30am (full preview here), which will give Warsh further insight into whether to keep rates on hold or hike, the median estimate for nonfarm payrolls change is 80k, following 57k in June. Crowd-sourced whisper number is currently 78k.  JPMorgan market intelligence scenarios show that a hawkish reading, leading to negative market reaction, would be a print above 150k. Stronger-than-expected data could trigger a pullback in risk assets by reinforcing expectations that rates will stay higher for longer. Goldman notes that alternative measures of employment growth slowed modestly in July. 

“Kevin Warsh’s ambiguity at the July FOMC means data releases like today’s payrolls carry greater risks of an outsized market reaction,” ING Bank strategists including Frantisek Taborsky wrote in a note. “We are still looking at no Fed cuts and dollar softening going forward.”

“A weaker top-line figure will be enough to spark rallies in Treasuries even if it’s paired with subdued unemployment, because slowdown risk would begin to make its way onto the curve if fixed-income investors fear that rosters could start contracting,” José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, wrote in a note.

Oil retreated from Thursday’s sharp rise as traders weighed negotiations between Iran and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz against renewed tensions, with Tehran seeking to bar US ships from a deal to partially restore shipping through the critical waterway. Brent crude fell 0.7% to below $82 a barrel, bringing its decline this week to 6.9%.

Elsewhere, BofA’s Michael Hartnett said EPS optimism is soaring, while recommending investors retreat from risk assets and/or rotate into some defensives (staples), duration (REITs, small cap, biotech) and US dollar, all protected from ongoing tightening of financial conditions. The BofA Bull & Bear Indicator rises to 9.7 from 9.4, the highest since 2021 and in “sell signal” territory.

The Stoxx 600 rose 0.6% as European equities edged higher on Friday with technology and health care stocks leading gains, while the biggest laggards are telecommunications and energy shares. Novo Nordisk A/S climbed 4.6% after a US judge threw out an antitrust lawsuit against its blockbuster weight-loss drug.  Among other movers in Europe, Kingspan Group Plc surged to a four-year high after the insulation specialist lifted full-year guidance. Genmab A/S jumped 8.3% after the Danish biotech company reported better-than-expected second quarter profit and boosted its outlook for the full year. Daimler Truck Holding AG fell 4% after reporting results. Here are the biggest movers Friday:

• Kingspan shares rise as much 17% after the insulation specialist topped expectations in the first half and lifted its trading profit guidance for the full year
• Genmab jumps as much as 10%, the most since February 2024, after the Danish biotech company reported better-than-expected revenue and operating income for the second quarter and boosted its outlook for the full year
• Novo Nordisk gains as much as 5.4%, outperforming the Stoxx 600 Health Care Index and putting the stock back into positive territory for the week
• Mol rises as much as 2.6% after the Hungarian refiner reported Clean CCS Ebitda for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate
• Aurubis shares drop as much as 5.7%, extending Thursday’s 5.5% decline following the copper smelter’s one-year delay to a new American smelting complex. Deutsche Bank cut its price target slightly
• Daimler Truck falls as much as 4.4% after the German firm announced weaker orders than analysts had expected and softer third-quarter guidance after its second-quarter results were pre-released last month
• Stellantis drops as much as 3.8% as the carmaker was downgraded to underperform from market-perform at Bernstein, which says there is still substantial scope for estimate reductions
• Orlen slips as much as 3.5% after the Polish refiner reported second-quarter results that analysts described as mixed. Wood & Co analysts cited disappointing oil & gas production despite favorable market conditions
• Amrize drops as much as 11%, on course to close at a record-low, after the building-materials company missed earnings expectations in the second quarter and cut its adjusted Ebitda guidance for the year
• Lanxess falls as much as 6.2% after the German chemical firm posted results that Goldman Sachs analysts said offered little to sustain recent positive momentum
• Munich Re declines as much as 5.3%, the most since May and the worst performer on the Stoxx 600 Insurance Index, after the German reinsurer cut its insurance revenue guidance for the year
• Erdemir falls as much as 6.6%, the most since May 21, as its second-quarter profit beat was attributed to a positive tax expense rather than operations

Asian stocks traded in a narrow range, as investors stayed cautious ahead of US payrolls data while awaiting concrete signs of progress on a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index swung between a loss of as much as 0.5% and gain of as much as 0.4%. South Korea’s Kospi declined 0.6%, while indexes in China advanced.  SK Hynix narrowed losses in post-market trading on Nextrade after the company announced plans for a 54 trillion won ($38 billion) expansion of its local chipmaking facilities. The company also said it will detail shareholder return plans in the third quarter. The overall relative market calm after recent big swings belied ongoing unease over a tech-led rally that has faltered in the past month, as investors look for clues on sustainability of the AI boom. US-Iran talks are also keeping traders on their toes, with the impact on oil prices keenly in focus. The US jobs report due later Friday will give clues on the health of the world’s largest economy. Here Are the Most Notable Movers

• SBI reported net income for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• SK Hynix is actively considering additional shareholder returns and will announce details in 3Q, according to a regulatory filing.
• China rare earth stocks jump as growing optimism over their strategic importance amid US-China tensions boosts sentiment. Wharf Real Estate Investment shares rise after JPMorgan upgraded the firm to overweight from neutral while Citi opened a 90-day upside catalyst watch.
• Lasertec shares fell 14%, after the Japanese semiconductor company’s full-year operating income guidance fell short of the average analyst estimate.
• Bridgestone reported adjusted operating profit for the first half-year that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Eneos reported operating income for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• China rare earth stocks jump as growing optimism over their strategic importance amid US-China tensions boosts sentiment.
• Obayashi reported operating income for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Wharf Real Estate Investment shares rise as much as 8.3%, after JPMorgan upgraded the firm to overweight from neutral while Citi opened a 90-day upside catalyst watch.
• Fujifilm Holdings Corp. shares fell by the most on record after the Japanese company reported weaker-than-projected quarterly results.

“It’s the caution on Middle East conflict and secondarily on interest rate direction,” said Xin-Yao Ng, a fund manager at Aberdeen. “In tech as well, there have been some earnings misses, and investors are starting to take more nuanced views on stocks, more driven on stock specific factors than being driven by blanket views on sectors.”

In FX. the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.1%. USD/JPY is maintaining its position on a 158 handle.  US support for Japan’s efforts to prop up the yen is unlikely to damage the dollar’s status as the most dominant reserve currency, according to Goldman Sachs. 

In rates, treasuries are marginally richer across the curve led by 5- to 7-year sectors, supported by lower oil prices as traders weigh negotiations between Iran and Oman against renewed tensions. Treasury yields richer by 1.5bp to 2.5bp across the curve with key curve spreads steeper by less than a basis point. US 10-year yield is around 4.66% as Treasuries slightly outperform European bonds. US session main event is July jobs report, with around 60% of a quarter-point rate hike priced in for Fed’s September policy meeting. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far. Alphabet’s jumbo offering headlined a $37b docket Thursday, bringing weekly supply to $80b. Issuers paid about 12bp in new issue concessions on deals that were 3.8 times oversubscribed.

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are down 0.7% after erasing gains. Precious metals are marching higher with spot gold trading on a $4300/oz handle for the first time since mid-June. Bitcoin is up 0.7%.

Today's top event is the July jobs data at 8:30am, where the median estimate for nonfarm payrolls change is 80k, following 57k in June. Crowd-sourced whisper number is currently 78k. US economic data calendar also includes July 1-year NY Fed inflation expectations (11am) and June consumer credit (3pm). Fed speakers scheduled include Richmond Fed’s Barkin at 10am

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• The Houthis conducted a “large-scale” attack against forces from Yemen’s Saudi-backed government killing “hundreds” of troops. They also struck the southwestern Saudi region of Najran, raising concerns over a widening of the US-Israeli war on Iran into a broader conflict. BBG
• Trump said negotiations between Iran and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz are “moving along,” even after some Iranian lawmakers said they would seek to bar American and Israeli ships from the waterway as part of the deal: BBG
• According to the apparent draft plan published by Iran, the country would ban U.S. and Israeli ships from transiting the Strait. Until compensation is paid, other nations that have harmed Iran would not be allowed to transit. While Iran and Oman are reportedly working on an agreement to define transit routes in the Hormuz strait, a deal still has not been announced. According to media reports, inbound traffic would transit Iranian waters while outbound traffic would go through Omani waters. CNBC
• The war on Iran is hitting nations in Asia hard, with Australia and New Zealand racking up billions of dollars in higher fuel costs: BBG
• Trump ordered new tariffs and price floors on imported polysilicon used in chips and solar panels. The 15% levies take effect December 4th and could trigger a rush of purchases. BBG
• Chinese firm Moonshot’s latest artificial intelligence model broke out of a cyber-testing environment in the latest incident that raises concerns about how well AI companies control their technology. Moonshot joins US firms Anthropic, OpenAI and Meta., which have in recent weeks reported breaches that saw their models escape testing environments. BBG
• China’s July crude imports rebounded 22% from June to 35.7 million tons, while inbound shipments of iron ore fell. Soybean purchases tumbled more than 15% in the same period. BBG
• Japan’s household spending unexpectedly fell for a seventh month, declining 3.3% in June, even as real wages continued to increase. BBG
• SK Hynix will invest about $38 billion to build two new chip plants in South Korea, adding to efforts to rapidly double its production capacity and ease a global shortage of memory. It also announced it could make a formal statement on shareholder capital return in Q3. BBG/Reuters
• U.S. job growth likely picked up in July, offering reassurance that the labor market remained resilient and allowing the Federal Reserve to maintain its focus on inflation. The Labor Department's closely watched employment report today at 8:30am is also expected to show the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.2% last month even as the labor ‌force participation rate is anticipated to have rebounded after declining to more than a five-year low in June. Reuters
• Airbnb jumped premarket after boosting its revenue forecast for the second time this year on robust global travel demand, particularly in the US and Europe. BBG
• Japan’s ¥317.76 trillion ($2 trillion) Government Pension Investment Fund posted a record 8.2% gain in the three months ended in June: BBG
• US President Trump, when asked if Fed Governor Warsh could hike ahead of the mid-terms, said it’s "up to him a little bit, but not completely" and continued to praise Warsh. Within the interview Trump also suggested that GOP voters may not come to vote as he is not on the ballot, saying "They’re angry at Republicans, but they’re not angry at me."
• US President Trump said it is way too early to think about a JD Vance endorsement [for President].
• BofA's weekly flow report noted USD 53.7bln into cash, USD 32.9bln into stocks, USD 23.1bln into bonds, USD 0.9bln into gold and USD 0.6bln into crypto. Bull & Bear Indicator rose to 9.7 (from 9.4).

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks ultimately traded mixed following the weak lead from Wall Street, while participants also digested a busy slate of earnings and the latest Chinese trade data. ASX 200 was little changed as strength in materials, energy and miners counterbalanced the underperformance in the financials and defensive sectors, while participants also reflected on the somewhat mixed trade data from Australia's largest trading partner. Nikkei 225 declined amid a busy day of earnings and with risk sentiment not helped by disappointing Household Spending data, which showed a surprise contraction, while a government official noted that typhoons, cold weather and more rain led to reduced beverage and dining out expenses. KOSPI retreated with price action initially choppy amid some earnings releases and the mixed performances seen in South Korea's tech heavyweights. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp kept afloat with the Hong Kong benchmark in relatively flat territory, while the mainland outperformed after the latest Chinese trade data, which showed exports topped forecasts, and imports missed with a sharper-than-forecast deceleration, but continued to show double-digit percentage growth.

Top Asian News

• Japanese Finance Ministry data showed Japan conducted yen buying intervention on a total of three days in April and May, while the largest daily intervention in April-June quarter was JPY 6.2787tln on April 30th

European bourses begin Friday's trade mixed, with the DAX 40 outperforming while the IBEX 35 lags. Focus still remains on the Middle East. Overnight, MS News reported that Oman and Iran reached an agreement over the Strait of Hormuz, although the diplomats declined to describe the details of the temporary agreement or what issues remain unresolved. Sectors lack a clear bias. Health Care tops the sector pile, after Genmab's (+9.2%) H1 revenue rose Y/Y and lifted its FY outlook. Tech and Media round out the top 3 outperformers. To the downside is Telecoms, with Utilities and Travel & Leisure following suit.

Top European News

• German Balance of Trade (Jun) 15.4B vs. Exp. 17.4B (Prev. 19.1B).
• German Exports MoM (Jun) M/M 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.9%).
• German Imports MoM (Jun) M/M 4.4% vs. Exp. 1.4% (Prev. -2.5%).
• German Industrial Production MoM (Jun) M/M 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.9%).
• French Balance of Trade (Jun) -5.8B vs. Exp. -6.5B (Prev. -6.9B).
• French Exports (Jun) 54.5B (Prev. 53.6B).
• French Imports (Jun) 60.4B (Prev. 60.5B).
• French Unemployment Rate (Q2) 8.3% vs. Exp. 8.2% (Prev. 8.1%).

FX

• Very quiet action in G10 FX ahead of this afternoon's NFP.
• DXY flat against all G10 peers (ex. Scandis) ahead of US Payrolls, trading just below 100.00 as it did throughout APAC. Expectations are for the US economy to have added 88K nonfarm payrolls in July, up from June’s 57K, with the unemployment rate seen holding steady at 4.2%. Some desks also flag the possibility of large revisions given survey modelling factors. Compiling banks' scenario analysis, the likely reaction will be the typical dovish on a soft headline print and hawkish on a hot figure. GS and JPM flag the unwinding of World Cup-related hiring and a rebound in labour force participation which could skew July toward softer payrolls. Deutsche Bank summarises, "In summary, if the labour market data remain stable as we expect, Fed officials will be left with one side of its dual mandate to focus on inflation.", a view more in line with FT sources citing Governor Warsh's focus on incoming inflation data as reported on Thursday.
• Scandis are modestly outperforming today, EUR/SEK and EUR/NOK finding further sellers both below 11.00. Guidance at the Norges Bank decision next week could further cement a hike later in the year and increase appetite for carry. EUR/SEK may remain in tighter ranges with the 50 DMA above at 10.99, and 100DMA below at 10.92. EUR/NOK is below all significant DMAs, with the 100DMA above at 11.00.
• Action is quiet elsewhere. EUR outperforms vs. most CEE currencies after a somewhat dovish CNB meeting on Thursday, while HUF reacts to soft July inflation data which fell beneath previous and the NBH's forecast.

Fixed Income

• A contained start to the final session of the week for fixed, with the market now waiting for US NFP and a concrete update on the situation between the US and Iran.
• USTs in a narrow 108-13 to 108-17 parameter, into Payrolls. Proxies into the print have been mixed, weekly claims hit nearly a 60yr low, but in contrast the ADP figure was below consensus. Similar divergence seen across other indicators, such as ISM. While pertinent, the main focus for the Fed is on the inflation side of the mandate, as officials continue to characterise the labour market as stable. As such, next week’s CPI may prove more influential, particularly after the FT sources piece on Thursday, which enhanced the focus on such prints into the next FOMC.
• Bunds and Gilts are also relatively contained, though with a bearish bias and are posting downside of around 20 ticks. Specifics for the space are a little light, the focus is firmly on the above factors. Bunds lower in a 124.71-89 band, while Gilts are off worst in 87.09-38 confines.
• Australia sells AUD 1bln 1.50% June 2031 bonds b/c 4.07, avg yield 4.5878%.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent futures have been holding a mild positive bias since the futures reopen as tensions between the Houthis and Saudis grow, while questions remain regarding the Iran-Oman deal as Iranian reporting on the text of the deal pointed to unfavourable terms for the US and its regional allies. Add to that, sources noted that the sound of two explosions heard in Qeshm late on Thursday was due to a confrontation with hostile targets at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz. Markets await official details of the Iran-Oman deal and the US’ reaction. Newsflow throughout the European morning has been light, with WTI Sep’26 in a current USD 77.56-78.77/bbl range, whilst Brent Oct’26 resides in a USD 83.04-84.44/bbl range thus far. Dutch TTF is off highs but firmer intraday, briefly dipping under EUR 56.50/MWh after finding resistance near EUR 59/MWh.
• Metals are firmer despite the oil move, as markets continue to hope for US-Iran diplomacy. Spot gold gradually gained amid reports of the PBoC stockpiling more gold in Hong Kong, although the precious metal remains within the prior day's parameters as participants await the key US jobs data. The yellow metal trades towards the top end of a USD 4,230-4,316/oz vs yesterday’s USD 4,224-4,304/oz range. Spot silver outperforms after topping yesterday’s USD 62.91/oz high and regains the USD 64/oz mark.
• Copper futures traded sideways but with modest intraday gains in a narrow USD 14,226.13- 14,106.85/t range for 3M LME, with the broader metals space awaiting NFP in the absence of fresh geopolitical updates.
• UBS forecasts Gold to reach USD 5k/oz in H1 2027; notes Gold prices may remain relatively volatile in the near term.

Trade/Tariffs

• White House said tariffs on polysilicon and related products will begin at 00:01EDT on December 4th.
• Canadian minister responsible for Canada-US trade LeBlanc said Canadian trade negotiators held productive and detailed talks with USTR Greer in Washington on Thursday.

Central Banks

• Fed's Musalem (2028 voter) said inflation is too high and the balance of risks is tilted towards higher price pressures, while he added it is crucial that monetary policy puts meaningful restraint on inflation. Musalem commented it is wrong to keep rate policy easy, hoping to foster higher productivity rates. Furthermore, he favoured raising rates at the recent FOMC meeting and sees a higher probability that inflation will remain above the target, as well as stated that gradual rate increases are less costly than more abrupt rate changes.

Geopolitics: Iran

• US President Trump said he thinks the war with Iran will end pretty soon and that the Strait of Hormuz is sort of opened right now. He later said that it is moving along good regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iranian Supreme Leader adviser Rezaei said we will not allow the opening of the second route in the Strait of Hormuz, and reiterated that if the blockade continues, American ships and forces will face serious dangers and casualties, according to Tasnim.
• Explosions were reportedly heard in Marib, western Yemen, according to Al Arabiya TV citing local sources.
• Saudi source said reliable intelligence reports indicate coordination between Houthi and Iraqi militias and the Revolutionary Guard to attack the Kingdom, Al Hadath reported. The source added that the coordination of militias against the Kingdom comes as negotiations are progressing positively and that the Kingdom will not hesitate to take all necessary measures to deal with any aggression.
• Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are to sign joint defence agreement in Saudi Arabia on Friday, according to sources cited by Reuters.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• US President Trump said he thinks they are making progress on Russia and Ukraine.
• US intelligence finds Russian President Putin is seeking ways to test NATO resolve as grip on Ukraine slips and could test its resolve with a limited assault on an allied country in the next few years, according to WSJ.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: Jul Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 80k, prior 57k
• 8:30 am: Jul Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. 3.5k, prior 3k
• 8:30 am: Jul Unemployment Rate, est. 4.2%, prior 4.2%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Welcome to another payrolls Friday. I'm trying to keep myself off the grid as much as possible at the moment as I've just started work on the annual long-term study. It's always daunting having a blank sheet of paper at the start of the process and trying to think of something original, interesting, analytical, and actionable. After over 20 years of doing it, when I finally find that combination, I'll let you know. 

In terms of today's big number, our economists expect a slight uptick in headline (+65k forecast vs. +57k previously) and private (+65k vs. +49k) payrolls. They suggest this would put the latest readings below the 3- and 6-month moving averages, consistent with the recent slowing in the weekly ADP reports. Consensus is at 80k for both. Our economists expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.2% on a rounded basis versus 4.19% last month, which was its lowest reading in a year, even if it was accompanied by a 0.3pp fall in the labour force participation. So there is a risk this corrects and we see a tick up to 4.3%.

Ahead of this, markets have edged a bit more nervously into the end of the week over the last 24 hours as preliminary details on the finalized Iran-Oman deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz emerged. The details, which included a permitting licensing framework and ban on US and Israeli vessels transiting, were reported by Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency, which cited a source from the country’s foreign ministry. So those conditions on the deal led Brent oil to rise +3.83% back up to $82.49/bbl, while WTI (+2.75% to $77.29/bbl) also spiked. European natural gas prices also rose +6.42% in their largest daily rise in two months. In turn, the higher energy prices weighed on equities, with the S&P 500 (-0.18%) down whilst sovereign yields ended the day notably higher. This morning Brent is another +1.98% higher after Fars also reported that Iran struck “hostile targets" at the entrance to the Strait.  

Delving into more details of the proposed Iran-Oman deal first, whilst information is still trickling in, what we know based on the Fars reporting is that US and Israeli vessels would be prohibited from transiting through the Strait, with cargo related to Israel also banned. Other countries that caused damage to Iran will also not be granted a permit until the damage is compensated, with Iran stating that violators will face a penalty up to 20% of their cargo value. So this seems to be Iran setting the terms. Meanwhile, Reuters reported earlier in the day that Iran was seeking fees of 5% to 7% of the cargo price for ships transiting Hormuz, while Oman was discussing 3%. Either of these would be higher than the reported ad hoc payments Iran had received from ships back in the spring. The big doubt is whether such terms would be acceptable to the US. While prohibition of US-owned vessels might have a negligible practical impact, the US has been resistant to an outcome that would fall short of free movement through Hormuz. That said, Trump’s limited comments last night shied away from any escalation, saying that things are “moving along good”.

The renewed rise in energy prices meant that investors dialed up inflation expectations again, with the US 1yr inflation swap rising by +11.0bps, its largest daily increase in four weeks. Meanwhile, the amount of Fed hikes priced by year-end rose by +3.0bps to 34bps. In turn, US treasury yields climbed higher yesterday, with 2, 10, and 30yr +6.6bps, +6.6bps and +5.6bps higher respectively. Real yields also rebounded, with the 5yr real yield up +3.5bps. And with yields and oil moving higher, the dollar (+0.25%) had its best day in two weeks. 

Stronger data and continued labour market resilience also contributed to the move in rates. That included initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 1, which were a little lower than expected at 199k (vs 205k est), and the latest job cut announcements from Challenger, Gray & Christmas, which fell to its lowest level in two years at 33,429 vs 45,849 the prior month. Finally, yesterday’s US non-farm productivity for Q2 (+1.4% vs +0.6% est) was also stronger than expected with upward revisions (from 0.3% to 0.8% for Q1).  
Prior to the Oman-Iran deal news as well, markets got a fresh boost of hawkish sentiment after the FT reported that Warsh would be prepared to raise interest rates at next month’s meeting if inflation readings released in the coming weeks are hot. Citing sources close to Warsh, the article also argued that Warsh would use the policy rate as the main policy tool, consistent with a view that the balance sheet is not a feasible tool over the immediate policy-relevant horizon. On an interesting side note, the appearance of this article suggests that the FT could become the home of Fed sources going forward with the WSJ seemingly out of favour. Bessant's extraordinary social media posts critical of their Chief Economics Correspondent Nick Timiraos on Wednesday perhaps set the scene for the passing of the baton. 

Turning to equities now, the S&P 500 (-0.18%) dipped on the news of the details of the Oman-Iran deal. Tech indices saw mixed moves, with the Nasdaq Composite (-0.06%) slipping but the Mag-7 (+0.24%) and the Philly semiconductor index (+0.33%) managing to advance. Energy (+1.59%) was the only sector in the S&P 500 to post a clear advance, while more energy-exposed sectors including industrials (-0.83%) and materials (-0.79%) struggled. 

In European markets, which closed shortly before the Fars News report, equities put in a more positive performance in comparison to US counterparts. The Stoxx 600 (+0.16%) and CAC 40 (+0.35%) posted fresh highs, while the DAX (+0.05%) also crept up. Only the FTSE 100 (-0.19%) underperformed. Similarly in rates, while the rise in inflation pricing was modest (+0.9bps for 5yr), nominal yields did move higher. Gilts led the rise, with the  10yr gilt yield up +4.8bps, followed by OATs (+3.3bps) and bunds (+2.9bps). 

Asian equity markets are generally weaker this morning with the exception of Chinese related markets. The KOSPI (-1.10%) is trading lower again, extending its weekly losses to more than 6% and putting the index on course for a seventh consecutive weekly decline. The Nikkei (-0.55%) is also moving lower, although it remains on track to post a weekly gain of over +1.0%. In contrast, mainland Chinese equities are outperforming, with the CSI 300 (+0.83%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.50%) both advancing. Hong Kong's Hang Seng (+0.15%) is trading modestly higher, while the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.03%) is struggling for direction. US equity futures and Treasuries are fairly flat this morning. 

Earlier this morning, data showed that Japanese household spending unexpectedly contracted by 3.3% year-over-year in June, compared with market expectations for a 0.9% increase. This marked the seventh consecutive monthly decline, with spending likely impacted by adverse weather conditions, including multiple typhoons, heavier-than-usual rainfall, and below-average temperatures. If Japan could send some of that weather our way we would be very grateful. 

To the day ahead now, we’ll receive the US July jobs report. Other data releases include NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations, June consumer credit. In Europe, we’ll also receive Germany’s June trade balance and industrial production, France June current account balance, trade balance. The Fed’s Barkin will also speak today.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 08:26