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Treasury Refunding: No Change To Auction Sizes As Bessent Deepens Reliance On Short-Term Debt

For yet another quarter, the Treasury's Quarterly Refunding offered no surprises, which considering the state of the US bond market is probably not a bad thing. 

In its 8:30am ET report, the US Treasury retained its previous guidance for future debt issuance, signaling no change in note and bond auction sizes well into 2027 even as federal borrowing needs balloon to stratospheric levels (and will explode once the AI bubble bursts leading to catastrophic consequences for corporate bonds). 

As for next week, the Treasury will hold $125 billion of refunding auctions, in line with estimates, which will be made up of:

• $58 billion of 3-year notes on Aug. 11
• $42 billion of 10-year notes on Aug. 12
• $25 billion of 30-year bonds on Aug. 13

The refunding will raise new cash of approximately $28.7 billion, the Treasury said.

Based on current projections, officials expect to maintain current sales amounts for nominal coupon securities and floating rate notes "for at least the next several quarters" - the same market-soothing language which the department has used in its quarterly debt-issuance strategy statement ever since the Janet Yellen "Activist Treasury Issuance" days of early 2024.

On bills, “based on current forecasts, Treasury expects to maintain current auction sizes in benchmark bills in the coming weeks”; and in "late-August, Treasury anticipates issuing a short-dated cash management bill."

The language and schedule is in line with the expectations of many dealers, who predicted Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and his team would refrain from tweaks given that longer-dated yields have climbed in recent months. Benchmark 10-year yields hit their highest since he took office last week, making them all the costlier for the government.

The Treasury also retained its suggestion from May that it’s biased toward the shorter end of the yield curve for any future increase in coupon auctions. It said it’s monitoring growing bill demand and continuing to evaluate the situation “with a focus on trends in structural demand and potential costs and risks of various issuance profiles.”

Of course, the lack of boosting coupon debt means that the Treasury’s reliance on Bills and other short-term securities that mature in up to a year, will deepen even more, in a strategy dealers have dubbed “T-bill and chill.”

The ratio of bills to outstanding debt is now historically high, however, running the risk of debt-servicing costs becoming sensitive to shocks — at a time traders are betting the Federal Reserve will be forced to tighten monetary policy in coming months.

The problem is that current auction sizes won’t leave the Treasury in position to raise fresh cash as time goes on, which means the T-bill share of debt will climb inexorably if issuance isn’t changed. Borrowing needs, meantime, continue to swell. The Treasury on Monday stepped up its estimate for borrowing for the current quarter to $739 billion, up $68 billion from May, mainly due to lower projected cash flows. Meanwhile, total US debt will hit $40 trillion in two weeks.

According to Bloomberg, some strategists have linked Bessent’s reluctance to alter forward guidance to the looming November congressional elections, and preferring to avoid any debt-issuance tweak that risked sending yields higher.

Of course, the longer the Treasury holds off on signaling a change, the more dramatic and sudden the shift will need to be when it happens. But for now there is a market meltup to engineer until the midterms, at which point all bets are off. 

The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee in the past has advised the Treasury to seek an average of 20% for the share of T-bills, but officials haven’t offered their own clear guidance on where their tolerance level may lie. For now, demand remains robust for bills, from money market funds to the Fed - which has been recycling maturing mortgage securities into bills.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 09:06

"This Is Going To Surprise Some People": Leading Biden COVID-19 Figure Embraces The Lab Leak Theory

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Former Biden White House COVID-19 Response Coordinator Dr. Ashish Jha this weekend became the latest denier of the lab theory to do a 180-degree turn. During the interview with CNN's Dana Bash, Jha admitted that he now believes that the most likely explanation is a lab leak at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. As pundits and politicians quietly admit that the natural mutation theory is not as credible, the courageous scientists who were blacklisted for years remain persona non grata in higher education.

Jha stated:

"This is going to surprise some people. You know, when I went into the White House, my view was, 'This was almost surely a natural outbreak, maybe a lab leak.' Based on information I learned and based on information I've seen, I have come to conclude that it is more likely to have been a lab leak."

I commend Jha for publicly addressing his change. Indeed, everyone in academia, myself included, has had their views evolve.

Former Biden White House COVID-19 Response Coordinator, Dr. Ashish Jha, tells Dana Bash, "When I went into the White House, my view was this was almost surely a natural outbreak, maybe a lab leak. Based on information I learned and based on information I've seen, I have come to… pic.twitter.com/bovB2nUbq4

— State of the Union (@CNNSOTU) August 2, 2026

What should not evolve is the willingness of the scientists and academics to accept dissenting viewpoints. One of my long-standing complaints against figures like Anthony Fauci is that they held prominent positions during the pandemic, but said nothing about the cancel campaigns directed against those experts who disagreed with their views on issues like the origins of COVID-19.

As I discuss in my new book, "The Indispensable Right," the result is that we never really had a national debate on many of these issues and the massive social and economic costs that resulted.

I spoke at the University of Chicago with Bhattacharya and other dissenting scientists in the front row a couple of years ago. After the event, I asked them how many had been welcomed back to their faculties or associations since the recognition of some of their positions.

They all said that they were still treated as pariahs for challenging the groupthink culture.

For years, figures like Bhattacharya (who was recently awarded the prestigious Intellectual Freedom Award by the American Academy of Sciences and Letters) were hounded and marginalized.

Others opposed Bhattacharya's right to offer his scientific views, even under oath. For example, in one hearing, Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.) expressed disgust that Bhattacharya was even allowed to testify as "a purveyor of COVID-19 misinformation."

Los Angeles Times columnist Michael Hiltzik decried an event associated with Bhattacharya, writing that "we're living in an upside-down world" because Stanford University allowed dissenting scientists to speak at a scientific forum. Hiltzik also wrote a column titled "The COVID lab leak claim isn't just an attack on science, but a threat to public health."

As recently as last year, Hiltzik continued to attack the lab theory.

Bhattacharya's experience is not unique. When scientists argued that the virus's origin was likely the Chinese research lab in Wuhan, they were mobbed by the media. That position was denounced by the Washington Post as a "debunked" coronavirus "conspiracy theory."

The Washington Post denounced Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark) when he raised the theory for "repeat[ing] a fringe theory suggesting that the ongoing spread of a coronavirus is connected to research in the disease-ravaged epicenter of Wuhan, China."

After Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) mentioned the lab theory, Post Fact Checker Glenn Kessler mocked him: "I fear @tedcruz missed the scientific animation in the video that shows how it is virtually impossible for this virus to jump from the lab. Or the many interviews with actual scientists. We deal in facts, and viewers can judge for themselves."

The New York Times Science and Health reporter Apoorva Mandavilli called any mention of the lab theory "racist."

At NPR, an endless stream of segments ran dismissing the lab leak notion, painting it as a debunked conspiracy theory of the far right, including one story titled "Scientists Debunk Lab Accident Theory of Pandemic Emergence."

I consider it valuable to have voices like Hultzik's that still challenge the lab theory - just as I thought it was valuable to have lab theorists voice their views. The difference is that critics of the lab theory are not being canceled, but continue to be celebrated for their prior work. To the contrary, figures like Scott Atlas have shown how those educators who helped lead the mob against dissenters still hold positions of power. These figures should not be canceled for holding opposing views, but their conduct in silencing others should be reviewed.

Despite the vindication of scientists on their opposition to policies on the use of surgical masks, the closure of schools, and other issues, there have not been any repercussions for those who enforced the orthodoxy and intolerance during the pandemic in higher education.

The fact is that most are now willing to admit that the lab theory is probably correct, but they are unwilling to forgive those who forced them into that admission.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 08:55

"Hiring Patterns Are Changing": ADP Reports Weakest Job Gains In 6 Months, But...

Following a weaker than expected JOLTS report, but better than expected ISM employment data, ADP reports today (ahead of Friday's payrolls report) that the US economy added only 44k jobs in July (below the 65k expected and the lowest since January) after a revised 95k increase in the prior month...

With the Goods-producing side of the economy losing 3k jobs...

"Typical hiring patterns, meanwhile, are changing as employers react to shifting macro-economic conditions," said Dr. Nela Richardson Chief Economist, ADP

Even with the moderation in hiring, the report showed wage growth for those who switched jobs picked up to the strongest pace in nearly a year.

"Job-changers are highly sensitive to real-time economic conditions, and their rapid pay growth implies supply constraints in parts of the labor market," added Richardson.

The figures point to a stable labor market supported by robust business and consumer demand. If confirmed in the government’s official monthly jobs report on Friday, the recent employment trend suggests Fed officials can keep their focus on still-elevated inflation.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 08:31

Futures Hit New Record High On Strong Earnings Following Historic Call Buying Frenzy

S&P 500 futures are up following yesterday’s first ATH since June; both tech and small caps are lagging, pointing to another potential broadening. A jump in US tech stocks is holding too, with Nasdaq-100 contracts rising after a 3.3% surge in the session before, powered by semiconductor stocks and blowout Palantir earnings. S&P futures are up 0.4%, just shy of 7800, a new all time high, while Nasdaq futures underperform, rising 0.2%, as results from AMD and SpaceX failed to impress, sending shares in both lower in after-hours trading. AMD’s forecast didn’t meet high expectations, while SpaceX investors focused on the hikes being made to its AI spending. Semis/memory are lower with some likely profit-taking after yesterday’s surge; NVDA/GOOG are leading Mag7 names higher as it appears that squeeze portion of this rally has room left to run, as JPM says keep an eye on IGV as the squeeze may turn into a narrative shift flipping one of the lightest owned sub-sectors into a leader in the near-term. Germany’s Infineon, up 69% this year, picks up the baton for European semiconductor sector results Wednesday. Tuesday gains have fed into a bounce for the Kospi and Nikkei 225 in Asia. Euro Stoxx 50 futures are also up 0.4%. The mood in stocks and in bonds has been bolstered by oil prices continuing to ease off, with Brent slipping below $79/bbl before rising above $80 as Houthi rebels threaten Saudi shipping north of the Red Sea and the UKMTO reported a ship sunk off Yemen after it was attacked by an unmanned craft. Qatar said a proposal had been drafted and both American and Iranian officials sounded hopeful about reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Treasury yields are dipping, while yields are down in Japan, Australia and New Zealand, the latter after weak quarterly jobs data. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is softer, with the Swiss franc and Swedish krona leading gains among major currencies and the kiwi the laggard. Asia FX is green across the board.Commodities are bid, led by Precious Metals; WTI seeing support around $75/bbl though that could change following the expected formal announcement of a new deal between the US and Iran.  Today's US economic data calendar includes July ADP employment change (8:15am), July final S&P Global US services PMI (9:45am) and July ISM services index (10am). Fed speakers scheduled include Cook (4:05pm) and Daly (8:35pm)

In premarket trading, Nvidia leads Mag 7 stocks higher, poised to extend gains for a fifth consecutive session, after SPCX announced an exclusive partnership to build its future AI infrastructure entirely on NVIDIA’s platforms. Meanwhile, Tesla is underperforming the cohort as SpaceX’s debut earnings after IPO disappoints. Other Mag 7 names are mostly higher (Nvidia +1.8%, Alphabet +1.2%, Apple +0.9%, Amazon +0.7%, Meta +0.5%, Microsoft +0.2%, Tesla -1.2%)

• AMD (AMD) falls 7% after the chipmaker’s third-quarter sales forecast underwhelmed investors expecting a stronger performance amid healthy demand.
• Arista Networks (ANET) jumps 12% after the cloud-networking company forecast better-than-expected revenue for the third quarter. Analysts note that demand remains very healthy.
• Booking (BKNG) is up 7% after the online travel agency reported gross bookings for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. The company said healthy global travel trends continued into the third quarter despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
• CVS Health (CVS) rises 3% after the health insurer boosted its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year.
• Digital Turbine (APPS) soars 27% after the mobile network company boosted its revenue guidance for the full year that topped the average analyst estimate and first-quarter results beat the consensus.
• Elanco Animal Health (ELAN) gains 6% after the animal health firm boosted its revenue and adjusted profit guidance for the full year, following better-than-expected results for the second quarter.
• Everus Construction (ECG) climbs 9% postmarket after raising its year revenue and Ebitda outlook. Second-quarter results topped expectations, with revenue growing 34% from the year-ago period.
• Flutter (FLUT), the parent of the FanDuel, falls 5% after the company cut its US revenue guidance for the full year and appointed President Dan Taylor as chief executive officer from Oct. 1.
• Kratos (KTOS) gains 10% after the defense contractor boosted its revenue guidance for the full year, topping the average analyst estimate.
• Match Group (MTCH) drops 8% after providing a revenue forecast for the current quarter that narrowly missed analysts’ estimates, suggesting its dating sites still need to attract more younger users.
• New York Times (NYT) falls 8% after the news company reported second-quarter results.
• Pinterest (PINS) drops 9% after the social media platform’s revenue outlook for the current quarter disappointed investors.
• Shopify (SHOP) climbs 28% after the e-commerce platform operator reported revenue for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• SpaceX (SPCX) falls 11% after it disclosed higher-than-expected spending on its artificial intelligence business, overshadowing an inaugural quarterly report that broadly surpassed Wall Street forecast.

Other corporate news includes Paramount Skydance posting a surprise surge in profits with cost-cutting from its merger last year continuing to pay off. Lucid is targeting $1.4 billion in cash savings this year, as the EV maker’s new CEO says “tough medicine” is needed to fix the troubled firm.

Overnight, the micro highlight was SpaceX's first earnings report as a public company, which could have gone... better: shares are 10% lower in premarket trading after it disclosed higher-than-expected spending on its AI business, dampening a report that broadly surpassed forecasts. Overall capex jumped to about $18.4 billion in the quarter, more than double its $7.8 billion revenue, and the company said the next two quarters of spending will be similar. Meanwhile, Musk lived up to his reputation for making bold predictions, including that SpaceX would reach a $100 billion annual run-rate revenue by year’s end, and $1 trillion annual revenues by 2030. SpaceX also fleshed out its plans to take on AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile by complementing its satellite-based internet service with land-based infrastructure (telecom stocks tumbled).

The next catalyst for tech - and probably the entire market - comes in the form of results from memory chip makers Sandisk and Western Digital later. Through Monday’s close, Sandisk has been the single best performing S&P 500 constituent year-to-date, and the 13th largest points contributor, while Western Digital also ranks highly on both measures. 

Last month’s heavy deleveraging means that fast-money actors like hedge funds have now covered a lot of their shorts, leaving the setup looking increasingly positive. At the same time, broadening has continued globally and a strong earnings season has accelerated the sector rotation that was already underway. One way to see this week's euphoria: on Tuesday we saw the highest ever amount of S&P call futures bought.

The recent correction in tech stocks has brought valuations to more reasonable levels, helping to restore investor confidence after a bout of volatility triggered losses at several hedge funds last month. The MSCI World Semiconductor Index had tumbled more than 20% from its peak in June, driven by worries around the sustainability of AI spending boom and progress in China’s advanced chipmaking. The gauge has rebounded 15% since then.

“Albeit there was some disappointment on the micro level, the numbers are still confirming that the overarching macro trend is intact as they confirm the durability of the compute build-out,” said Stephan Kemper, chief investment officer at BNP Paribas Wealth Management Germany. “Thus, tech as a whole can benefit even if single players suffer.”

Geopolitical tensions are easing as President Donald Trump said the US had “good” discussions with Iran. Qatar said a proposal has been drafted and both American and Iranian officials sounded hopeful about reopening the Strait of Hormuz.   “Sentiment seems to have improved,” though it is likely due to a better risk backdrop than a fundamental change, said Haris Khurshid, chief investment officer at Karobaar Capital. “Lower oil, easing geopolitical tensions and stronger tech sentiment are all helping.”

Brent crude reversed some of Tuesday’s 5.3% plunge after Yemen’s Houthi militant group threatened to escalate attacks on Saudi vessels in the northern Red Sea. Still, the commodity held around $80 a barrel after Axios reported that Washington, Tehran and Oman were nearing an agreement to resume oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. That’s easing inflation fears and upward pressure on Treasury yields.

“As oil prices come back to the $75-$80 dollar range, markets can focus on fundamentals, which remain robust,” said Mohit Kumar, a strategist at Jefferies International. “Earnings have been solid and there is still a lot of liquidity out there. Positioning is very clean, which sets a nice backdrop for a further rally in risky assets.”

In other assets, Fed’s Schmid suggested higher rates are needed to achieve the Fed’s price stability goals. Bloomberg Economics notes the divergence in global monetary policy outlooks due to energy price volatility, showing “the fog global central banks face as they try to limit the inflationary consequences of the Middle East conflict.” Meanwhile, the cost of hedging against a rise in Treasury yields has surged since last week.

In politics, Trump administration officials are moving toward another temporary extension of a waiver of a century-old shipping law that made it easier to move oil, fuel and fertilizer around the US. The White House has told top US AI companies that open-weight models being developed in China won’t be subject to government testing under the Trump administration’s new AI safety framework. And a potential US ban on Chinese data center components risks straining the countries’ fragile trade truce.

In hedge funds, the losses that forced Situational Awareness to sell stocks at deep discounts appear to be the result of highly concentrated positions in crowded trades, rather than a concerted effort by short-sellers, according to S3 Partners. Whale Rock’s flagship hedge fund had a 21.7% drop in July, erasing about half of its gains for the year.

The upside in oil sapped broader risk sentiment with the Stoxx 600 erasing an earlier advance that took it to a record high.Mining and retail shares leading gains while banks and consumer products stocks are the biggest laggards. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

• Sandoz shares gain as much as 8.6%, the most since Feb. 25, after the Swiss maker of generic drugs posted strong sales in the US and at its biosimilars unit
• Glencore rallied as much as 5.4% in London trading, the most since January, after reporting 1H adjusted Ebitda that beat analyst estimates due to surging prices for its key commodities
• Heineken shares gain as much as 3.1% after the Dutch brewer posted a strong set of second-quarter figures, with analysts highlighting outperformance in Asia-Pacific, led by Vietnam
• Nexans shares jumped as much as 7.4% after JPMorgan upgraded the stock to overweight, saying that the French cable manufacturer would be able to achieve its 2028 targets while M&A could bring further upside
• Fresenius jumps as much as 9.3%, the most since October 2022, after the German healthcare group lifted its full-year earnings forecast, following strong second-quarter performances at its hospitals and Kabi drugs business
• Infineon shares drop as much as 5.9% after the chipmaker’s 4Q margin outlook missed estimates, with the firm citing temporary operational and inventory-related effects in the green industrial power segment
• Novo Nordisk shares fall as much as 4.6% in Copenhagen after the Danish drugmaker’s new Wegovy weight-loss pill failed to top analysts’ expectations
• Verisure’s stock slid as much as 7.4% to €9.826 after a shareholder sold a stake for roughly €198.4 million in an overnight placing
• OTP Bank shares drop as much as 1.5% after the Hungarian lender reported total income for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate
• Wolters Kluwer shares fall as much as 5.8% after the Dutch information services company reported revenue for the first half-year that met the average analyst estimate

Earlier, Asian stocks rose to the highest in a month, led by a rally in heavyweight chipmakers as sentiment improved following prospects of an interim US-Iran deal. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 2.1%, boosted by TSMC, SK Hynix and Samsung. Tech-heavy markets including Korea, Taiwan and Japan climbed, while Australian shares advanced to an all-time high. A guage of Asian semiconductor stocks rose 4.5%, tracking overnight gains in US peers. SK Hynix got an extra boost amid speculation  the Korean firm may soon unveil buybacks and other details of a broader shareholder return plan. Elsewhere, optical stocks in China fell, while those in Japan, India and South Korea rose, after Reuters reported that the US is drafting a ban on imports of some Chinese data center components to protect AI infrastructure.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.1%. The kiwi is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.5% against the greenback after the New Zealand jobless rate rose more than expected.

In rates, treasuries are steady with front-end lagging rest of the curve slightly, following muted price action during Asia session and London morning. Oil prices erased declines after Yemen’s Houthi militant group’s latest threat against Middle East shipping. US session includes quarterly refunding announcement and July ISM services gauge. Treasury front-end yields are about 1bp cheaper, tracking gains in oil, while rest of US curve is little changed, with bunds and gilts also broadly steady. Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement at 8:30am New York time is expected to leave in place guidance on steady auction sizes for at least the next several quarters, according to bond dealers. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far. AbbVie’s $10b deal headlined a $17.3b calendar Tuesday. Issuers paid about 5bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 5.2 times covered. Two issuers continue to monitor the market, both with size aspirations exceeding AbbVie’s transaction

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are up about 0.5% near session highs after erasing declines after Yemen’s Houthi militant group said it would attack Saudi oil tankers in the northern Red Sea. Precious metals jump with spot silver up over 3%.

Today's US economic data calendar includes July ADP employment change (8:15am), July final S&P Global US services PMI (9:45am) and July ISM services index (10am). Fed speakers scheduled include Cook (4:05pm) and Daly (8:35pm)

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• The US, Iran and Oman are preparing to announce a 60-day agreement on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz as soon as today. Donald Trump said talks with Iran are “moving along very nicely.” BBG
• Donald Trump’s administration has paid out about $100bn in tariff refunds since the US Supreme Court struck down its use of emergency powers to levy duties on its trading partners earlier this year. The sum, which is 60 per cent of the $165bn collected from the president’s “liberation day” tariffs, was reported by US customs officials to judges at the US Court of International Trade on Tuesday. FT
• White House is excluding open-models from its framework to test advanced AI capabilities: Axios.
• China’s services activity expanded at its weakest pace in nearly two years, a private survey showed, with businesses turning more cautious about an economy that’s increasingly showing signs of further weakness. BBG
• Shares of SK Hynix Inc. advanced, lifted by an overnight rally in US chipmakers and speculation that the Korean firm may soon unveil buybacks and other details of a broader shareholder return plan. BBG
• China tightened its exports controls on drones to the US and sanctioned multiple American companies in a series of retaliatory measures against Washington’s widening tech curbs. BBG
• UK firms continued to cut jobs in July, extending the labor market slump to its longest since the global financial crisis, a PMI survey showed. Businesses cited cost-cutting and greater use of AI. BBG
• Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said Tuesday that the Federal Reserve’s inflation problem isn’t only about energy, and bringing inflation down to the Fed’s 2% objective will require tighter policy. WSJ
• Progressive Abdul El-Sayed is projected to win Michigan’s Democratic US Senate primary, according to NBC. He’ll face Republican Mike Rogers in November in a contest critical to Democrats’ hopes of regaining the Senate. BBG
• OpenAI and Anthropic AI models carried out “potentially harmful” actions, including hacking a website, UK government safety tests found. Separately, the White House was said to have told US AI firms that open-weight models developed by their Chinese rivals won’t be subject to government testing. BBG
• V-Shaped: Nasdaq now up ~945 bps in just 4 sessions (since last Thursday), punching back above its 50-dma to the upside. This 4-day move stacks up with how Tech has traded out of (or during) other notable market “events” over the last 20 years (GFC, COVID, ’22 Hiking Cyle, Liberation Day, et al).: Goldman

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly higher as the region took its cue from the rally on Wall Street, where the S&P 500 and Dow printed fresh record highs, although the Nasdaq was the outperformer on tech strength, while yields and oil prices declined amid hopes of a  Hormuz deal. ASX 200 traded in the green, with the upside led by outperformance in miners, materials and tech, which picked up the slack from the weakness in energy, utilities and the top-weighted financial sector. Nikkei 225 rallied back above the 66,000 level amid the tech strength, with SoftBank shares among the biggest gainers, and are up by a double-digit percentage owing to its heavy AI exposure. KOSPI rallied amid the tech momentum and with earnings results also providing tailwinds for stocks. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed, with the Hong Kong benchmark flat amid weakness in the energy sector, while the mainland conformed to the upbeat mood despite disappointing RatingDog Services PMI data, although Chinese optical stocks were pressured as the US mulls an import ban.

Top Asian News

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the uptick in Japan's inflation was the result of weak yen and energy prices, as energy prices come down and we no longer have excess yen weakness, will contribute to inflation coming down.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said they will not rely on new debt issuance to fill tax revenue shortages, will review budget spending and revenue to fill tax revenue shortages.

European bourses continue to climb, with gains broadly seen across the board. Focus will be on the potential announcement of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. On the data front, EZ and UK final PMIs printed a tick higher. For the EZ figure, S&P highlighted that the rise in the headline output index indicates quarterly GDP growth of 0.3%. For the ECB, S&P Global stated that, with the renewed flare-ups in the Middle East leading to upside risks to inflation, it should put policymakers in a more hawkish stance. However, with the PMI price gauges dropping markedly, it may provide a window for a delay of further hikes. Sectors point to a positive bias. Basic Resources top the sector pile, with Retail and Utilities rounding out the sector outperformers. To the downside is Consumer Products & Services, with Banks and Real Estate completing the bottom 3 laggards.

Top European News

• Italian Economy Minister Giorgetti said they will be asking the EU to increase energy spending by 0.6% and defence spending by 0.9% of GDP. The minister added that they will be presenting to parliament a formal request to increase the deficit between September and October, following on from EU talks.

FX

• USD lacks direction with DXY just below 100.00 as the positive risk environment is weighed against a bounce in energy benchmarks; Brent +USD 1/bbl. Several scheduled releases today, including ISM services and ADP jobs ahead of Friday's NFP, while the Treasury is slated to release its QRA; focus is on whether guidance retains language that coupon and FRN auction sizes will hold “for at least the next several quarters.” Further on that, JPM flags a USD 3.7tln four-year funding gap, and argues the wording should be tightened, but expects the Treasury to hold fire ahead of November’s midterms to avoid unsettling long-end rates. On the speaker slate, Fed's Cook is set to speak.
• GBP is the marginal outperformer despite a Times article overnight suggesting the government would look to exploit a Reeves-era fiscal rules loophole to increase government borrowing by as much as GBP 9bln. Perhaps a factor soothing markets is how both Burnham and Healey have previously expressed willingness to utilise flexibility in the fiscal rules. Elsewhere, UK Final PMIs were confirmed in expansion though revised modestly lower. GBP/USD trades within a narrow 1.3340-1.3470 range, with all significant DMAs between 1.3350 and 1.3400, likely to provide support; 1.3500 will likely prove resistance.
• EUR conforms to price action across the G10 space and is essentially unchanged against the Buck in quiet trade. ING today notes how the heatwave, impacting water levels and nuclear power, means the single currency has been unable to capitalise on the stronger-than-expected data over the past week. Today, EZ PMIs, like those seen across the channel, did not deviate enough from prelim figures to spark a EUR reaction. EUR/USD flat with 50 and 100 DMAs either side at 1.1476 and 1.1570, respectively.
• NZD is the clear underperformer after the unemployment rate firmed at a faster rate than was expected. Kiwi was pressured immediately after the data and continued lower throughout the morning, surpassing recent 0.5860 support and potentially on track to test 0.5850.

Fixed Income

• A firmer start for the space, led higher by the initial downside in energy given the overnight geopolitical updates and the potential for a Hormuz deal to arise in the next 24hrs or so. Albeit, reporting this morning has been somewhat less constructive, and as such crude has reverted back into the green, and fixed has waned from best.
• Gilts briefly eclipsed 88.00 by six ticks and with gains of 44 at best. Upside a function of the initial energy pressure, catch-up to the overnight moves in fixed and on domestic fiscal reporting. On the latter, The Times scooped that Ministers are looking at utilising a Reeves-era adjustment to the fiscal rules, when the former Chancellor made it so the government can count spending on equity/infrastructure as assets, which can then be offset against borrowing costs. Such an approach could allow GBP 9bln/yr to be raised, without PM Burnham or Chancellor Healey having to adjust the rules themselves.
• Bunds also bid, but off best. Peaked at 125.51 in APAC trade, firmer by near 50 ticks at the time, but has since essentially halved that as energy moves. For Germany, specifics have been and are scheduled to be relatively light aside from Green supply due shortly. Elsewhere, from the bloc, EZ June PPI was cooler-than-expected M/M but in-line Y/Y; no move to the series.
• USTs in-fitting, modestly firmer in narrow 108-26 to 109-01 confines. A busy docket ahead, in addition to potential geopolitical updates. Firstly, ADP prints before Friday’s NFP, seen at 70k (prev. 98k), vs 91k (prev. 57k) for the BLS series. Thereafter, the Chicago indicator hits alongside the Quarterly Refunding Announcement, focus is on the language around coupon and FRN sizes. Next up, we have the US Final PMI and ISM Services read for July, before potential commentary from Fed’s Cook (voter).

Commodities

• In terms of Middle Eastern geopolitics, developments suggest momentum towards a diplomatic agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, although negotiations remain ongoing. US President Trump said in a Fox News interview that the Strait could reopen very soon, describing discussions with Iran as productive after an all-day round of negotiations and stating there is still ample time to reach a deal, while warning that Iran would face severe consequences if it withdrew from talks again. He later added that negotiations were progressing well and that more clarity would emerge within 48 hours.
• Regarding to the potential Hormuz agreement, Axios reported that the US is targeting a Wednesday announcement of a Hormuz agreement under which inbound vessels would transit through a northern lane in Iranian waters and outbound vessels through a southern lane in Omani waters, with no transit fees during an initial 60-day period and joint efforts to clear naval mines from the median lane within 30 days before negotiating a permanent arrangement between Oman and Iran.
• Energy futures have tilted higher during the European morning following a subdued APAC session, with gains seen after the Yemeni Houthis announced that they have targeted a Saudi tanker in the North of the Red Sea. This essentially amounts to an expansion of the Houthi blockade that threatens to completely choke off Saudi Arabia's alternative energy export routes. Prices thereafter saw modest downticks on reports that the Pakistan PM Sharif and Army Chief Munir will visit Saudi Arabia tomorrow. Meanwhile, upticks were seen once again following reports that Israeli strikes were reported in Southern Lebanon, which is seen as a headwind for US-Iran negotiations. WTI Sep’26 resides towards the top end of a USD 74.24-76.47/bbl range (vs yesterday’s USD 75.11-82.33/bbl range) while Brent Oct’26 trades in a USD 78.11-80.80/bbl range (vs yesterday’s 78.67-86.33/bbl parameter). Dutch TTF is softer intraday but in choppy trade, printing on either side of the EUR 55/MWh mark in a current ~EUR 54.50-55.75/MWh range.
• Metals are firmer as DXY price action is once again somewhat contained despite the volatility across energy. Spot gold trades towards the top end of a USD 4,065-4,180/oz range after topping the 22nd July high (USD 4,166/oz) to match the 7th July peak (USD 4,180/oz). Spot silver has mounted USD 60/oz once again to trade towards the upper end of a USD 59.40-61.90/oz range at the time of writing.
• Base metals also cheer the relatively stable dollar against the backdrop of energy volatility. 3M LME copper holds above USD 14k/t in a USD 13,974.45- 14,104.00/t range at the time of writing.
• US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +2.7mln (exp. -2.0mln), Distillates -1.2mln (exp. -0.1mln), Gasoline +0.2mln (exp. -1.3mln), Cushing +2.4mln.
• US Energy Secretary Wright said the extension of Jones act waiver is likely and has resulted in lower energy prices in California and the US East Coast.
• Ferrexpo (FXPO LN) said they have decided to temporarily suspend production of iron ore products from its mining and pelletising operations in Ukraine and are currently able to supply its European customers from existing inventory stockpiles.

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump's administration is considering blocking Chinese imports of optical transceivers from China.
• China's MOFCOM said it will impose countermeasures on six US entities and will take countermeasures against US compliance-testing firms.
• Chinese embassy in the US said Washington should stop threatening Chinese companies and slammed the Trump administration's plan to ban certain electronic equipment used in data centres.

Central banks

• Fed's Schmid (2028 voter) said tight monetary policies are needed to get inflation back to the 2% target, and that inflation is currently too high and is worrisome. The current stance of Fed policy is not restrictive and the recent relief on energy prices may prove temporary. Schmid added that the economy is performing well overall and growth is resilient, while welcoming the recent inflation data. However, it is too soon to say if it is easing. He ended by stating that the job market appears to be roughly in balance, and AI investment is driving up inflation, which the Fed should not ignore.
• RBI keeps Repurchase Rate unchanged at 5.25%, as expected, via unanimous decision, while policy stance is kept at neutral. Growth continues to be supported by domestic demand, while there is a need for greater clarity on inflation before taking policy action. Sees FY27 real GDP growth of 6.7% (prev. 6.6%) and FY27 CPI at 5.0% (prev. 5.1%).
• BoJ Minutes from the June Meeting stated most members share the view economy is moving in line with the baseline scenario, and there were risks underlying inflation may overshoot the BoJ's 2% target. Members agreed it was appropriate for the BoJ to continue raising rates. Few members said the BoJ must maintain guidance that the BoJ will keep rising rates if the economy and prices move in line with its forecasts.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• An Iranian source familiar with the direct Iran-Oman talks has told CBS News the discussions between Tehran and Muscat are now focused largely on the mechanics of reopening the Strait of Hormuz and that broad outlines have largely been agreed. Under the current proposal, ships entering the Strait would use the channel closest to Iran, with Iran coordinating inbound traffic, while vessels leaving the strait would use the Omani side, with Muscat managing outbound traffic. The proposal also includes a "service fee," with the revenue split between Iran and Oman. According to the source, the broad outlines have largely been agreed upon, with the remaining discussions focused on implementation and timing. Axios reported something similar, in which the US is nearing a Hormuz deal. Axios added that no tolls or fees would be charged during the 60-day period and the parties would work on clearing naval mines from the median lane of the strait within 30 days.
• US President Trump said in a Fox News interview that the Strait is going to be open very soon and that they are having very good discussions with Iran, while he warned if Iran backs out again, they'll be hit very hard. Trump also commented that they had a very good day with Iran and had an all-day negotiation today, while he also said they have plenty of time to reach an agreement with Iran. Furthermore, Trump separately commented that they are moving along very nicely regarding Iran and we will know in 48 hours on Iran.
• US Central Command said that the southern route through the Strait of Hormuz remains free and open for all commercial vessels seeking to transit the international waterway.
• Israeli media citing unnamed Israeli sources reported that US President Trump and his advisers are seeking a deal with Iran at any cost, according to Al Jazeera.
• Israel, Lebanon and the US are discussing which country or countries will be responsible for verifying Hezbollah's removal from pilot zones, with Italy being one of the options, according to three sources familiar with the talks cited by i24's Stein.
• Israeli strikes reported in Southern Lebanon, Tasnim reported.
• Pakistani sources said Pakistan PM Sharif and Army Chief Munir will visit Saudi Arabia tomorrow, Al Hadath reported.
• Yemeni Houthis said they attacked a vessel in the Red Sea, with the spokesman adding they attacked a Saudi oil tanker off the Yanbu with missiles.
• Saudi Arabia reportedly attacked Yemen's capital of Sanaa with explosions heard, according to Fars News Agency.
• Saudi official said no talks are taking place between the Saudis and the Houthis via mediators, according to Al Arabiya.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Air attack reported on Ukraine's capital, Kyiv, with explosions heard amid reports of a ballistic missile attack.

Geopolitics: Other

• North Korea leader Kim's sister criticised Japan's recent test firing of a Tomahawk missile and said they will be forced to add more military options in response to Japan's strengthening of defence capabilities.
• US Pentagon is drafting a new US nuclear strategy in case of regional war with China or Russia, NBC sources report.

US Event Calendar

• 7:00 am: Jul 31 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -6.4%
• 8:15 am: Jul ADP Employment Change, est. 65k, prior 98k
• 9:45 am: Jul F S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 53.6, prior 53.6
• 9:45 am: Jul F S&P Global US Composite PMI, prior 53.6
• 10:00 am: Jul ISM Services Index, est. 54.5, prior 54

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As recently as last Friday, investors were debating whether a renewed Middle East energy shock would be the soundtrack of the late summer. By yesterday's close, Brent crude had fallen back below $80/bbl, short-term inflation expectations had moved to multi-month lows, bond yields had continued to retreat, and the S&P 500 (+1.79%) and the Stoxx 600 (+0.73%) had moved to fresh record highs. At the same time, the AI trade continued to regain momentum, with semiconductors enjoying another strong session and investors increasingly willing to lean back into the capex theme that looked under pressure during July's volatility. These themes have held up overnight, with oil and Treasury yields edging lower, while Asian equities are rallying.

The latest catalyst was another day of encouraging headlines around the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar said that a draft proposal had been circulated between the parties, whilst Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested that an agreement to reopen shipping flows could be reached “today or tomorrow”. Axios then reported last night that the US is hoping for a Wednesday announcement of an interim deal that would see a temporary 60-day arrangement between Iran and Oman under which Gulf-bound vessels would pass through Iranian waters, whilst vessels leaving the Gulf would be able to travel through Omani waters with no fees being charged during the 60-day period. Similar details were reported earlier by the Wall Street Journal, though both reports leave unclear whether a long-term arrangement between Iran and Oman might then involve charging a toll for using the Strait. And as I write this around 5am LDN time, Trump just told reporters that talks were “moving along very nicely” and “we’ll know in 48 hours”, though he also told Fox News earlier that “they're going to get hit very hard” unless the Strait is open “very soon”.

Markets have seen plenty of false dawns throughout this conflict, so plenty of attention will be on whether a deal is announced imminently and its details. As of now, investors are increasingly pricing a solution, with the most obvious positive reaction coming in energy markets. Brent crude fell another -5.26% to $79.36/bbl yesterday, whilst WTI declined -5.69% to $75.77/bbl. European natural gas futures also fell -2.75% to their lowest level in almost three weeks. Brent is another -0.66% lower this morning. The speed of the reversal has been impressive with Brent now down by more than -10% since Friday.

The associated move in inflation pricing was arguably even more noteworthy. The US 1yr inflation swap fell another -6.4bps to 1.80%, its lowest since 2024, whilst the Eurozone equivalent declined -9.5bps to 2.27%. US 5yr inflation swaps fell -4.8bps to 2.36%. Markets are clearly dismantling a sizeable portion of the near-term inflation premium that had built up as the conflict intensified through July.
Government bonds also continued to benefit. The 10yr Treasury yield fell -6.3bps to 4.61%, and while breakevens led the decline, real yields moved lower too, with the 30yr real yield falling -3.8bps to 2.97%. The Treasury curve is a touch lower again overnight, with 10yr yields down -0.8bps overnight, even as Kansas City Fed President Schmid struck a hawkish tone yesterday evening, saying that “bringing inflation down to the Fed’s 2% objective will require tighter policy”.

In Europe, bund yields declined -4.5bps to 3.11%, while gilts rallied a further -5.7bps to 4.90%, extending the strong performance seen since oil began reversing lower at the start of the week. Peripheral debt also performed strongly, with 10yr BTP yields falling -7.1bps to 3.86%, with a -15.8bps decline so far this week marking their best two-day run since May.

Importantly however, the bond rally wasn’t fueled by weaker growth. The JOLTS survey for June did show job openings easing to 7.36 million from 7.54 million previously, but most of the survey’s details remained constructive, with hiring picking up, layoffs staying subdued, the quits rate stable at an upwardly revised 2.0% (vs 1.9% expected) and the ratio of vacancies to unemployed workers little changed at 1.04 (vs. 1.03 prev.). In addition to this steady labour market signal, June durable goods orders were revised up to +0.5% mom (+0.3% exp.) with core capital goods orders rising +1.2% (+0.9% exp).

That combination of lower oil prices, falling inflation expectations and still-resilient US data proved an ideal backdrop for risk assets. The S&P 500 rose +1.79%, closing at an all-time high for the first time in two months. Tech stocks outperformed, with the Nasdaq up +2.59%, though the Mag-7 (+0.73%) underperformed. The AI complex was even stronger, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surging +6.55%, its strongest daily gain since March and extending its rise since last Wednesday to +16.58%, its biggest 4-day advance since 2020. 

So the rebound in semiconductors continues to gather pace. After enduring a correction of more than -20% during July, investors appear increasingly willing to re-engage with the AI trade. Helping sentiment were Palantir's (+29.45%) strong outlook, reports of Anthropic agreeing a $10bn computing infrastructure deal to meet demand for its models, and Caterpillar (+5.60%) raising sales guidance whilst pushing back on concerns that data-centre demand is slowing. Together, that helped rebuild investor confidence in the broader AI capex cycle after July's turbulence.

Another interesting AI-related development came from the networking space. Reuters reported that the Federal Communications Commission is drafting a ban on imports of new Chinese optical transceivers, critical components that allow information to travel through fibre-optic cables inside data centres. The news boosted US optical-networking names, with Marvell Technology up +12.81% and Coherent gaining +12.35%, as investors anticipated a shift in demand towards domestic suppliers. While a niche story on the surface, it is another reminder of how AI supply chains are part of broader strategic competition between the US and China.

A bit of shine came off the tech performance overnight following results from SpaceX and AMD. SpaceX fell by over -7% after-hours after reporting higher AI capex spending, though that decline was smaller than the +9.43% jump in yesterday’s regular session. AMD shares also slid in extended trading as the chipmaker’s Q3 revenue guidance ($13bn vs $12.5bn) came in slightly ahead of consensus but below the more optimistic estimates. This leaves NASDAQ futures (+0.11%) underperforming those on the S&P 500 (+0.32%), but the overall equity mood remains positive overnight.

Optimism is also visible in Asian markets this morning. Across the region, the KOSPI (+4.32%) and the Nikkei (+3.32%) are leading gains. Mainland Chinese stocks are moving higher with the Shanghai Composite (+1.34%) outperforming the CSI 300 (+0.99%), while the Hang Seng (+0.11%) is little changed. The China market performance hasn’t been helped by the RatingDog Services PMI for July, which fell from 54.1 to 50.4 (vs 53.7 expected). That’s its lowest level since September 2024, pointing to still soft domestic demand in China. Meanwhile, the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.71%) is on course to eclipse its record high reached back on March 2, helped by a strong June household spending print (+0.8% MoM vs +0.2% expected).

Elsewhere, European equity indices continued to push into record territory yesterday. The Stoxx 600 (+0.73%), DAX (+0.77%), CAC (+0.61%) and FTSE MIB (+1.26%) all reached new all-time highs, while the FTSE 100 (+0.20%) is just 0.3% below its own historic peak. So beyond the US, investors are increasingly embracing the combination of lower oil prices and easing inflation concerns.
Another market theme worth watching remains the yen. During his CNBC interview yesterday, Bessent said that the US would do "whatever it takes" to support Japan and argued that excessive yen weakness risked broader instability across Asia. He also said that it would be reasonable for the Fed to upsize the FIMA repo facility, a point that our rates strategists have sympathy with (see their take here). In his extensive comments, Bessent also said he believed the BoJ Governor “will do what is needed”. Note that our FX strategists see faster BoJ hikes as necessary for a more sustained recovery in the yen. Following Bessent’s remarks, the yen rallied from intraday lows, though it still finished yesterday’s session -0.36% lower at ¥157.75 per dollar. However, that’s significantly stronger than the roughly ¥163 level seen before last week's intervention efforts. The yen is little changed against the U.S. dollar this morning.

This morning’s minutes from the BoJ’s June policy meeting revealed that several board members expect consumer inflation to receive a notable boost in the second half of the current fiscal year and showed that two of the eight board members advocated for a faster pace of interest rate hikes. The latest Japan wage data this morning is likely to maintain the pressure for BoJ hikes, showing nominal wage growth at +3.4% yoy in June (in line with expectations after a revised +3.3% rise in May), marking the fifth consecutive month of gains above 3% and the longest such streak in 34 years. A more stable wage indicator, which excludes bonuses, overtime payments, and sampling distortions, rose +2.9% for full-time employees (vs +2.7% expected). Real wages increased +1.6%, extending gains to a sixth consecutive month, the longest run since 2021.

To the day ahead now, data releases include the US July ADP report, where our US economists expect employment growth of +60k after +98k previously. We will also get ISM services, UK July new car registrations, France June industrial production, Italy July services PMI, Eurozone June PPI. Tomorrow, the Fed’s Cook will also speak. Earnings include Eli Lilly, Walt Disney, CVS Health, eBay, Block, and Global Payments.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 08:20

Fauci's Time Is Up...

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

Sen. Rand Paul has locked in the date for a committee vote that could finally impose real consequences on Anthony Fauci, the longtime public health official whose pandemic-era decisions reshaped daily life for millions of Americans.

On Thursday, the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee will vote on a resolution holding Fauci in contempt of Congress after he refused to answer questions under subpoena during last week's hearing.

Paul, the Kentucky Republican who chairs the panel, announced the move today. The resolution authorizes the President of the Senate to certify the committee's report on Fauci's refusal to answer questions pertinent to the inquiry, as required by the subpoena.

HSGAC is voting Thursday to hold Anthony Fauci in contempt. Fauci has a blanket pardon from President Biden for more than a decade's worth of actions, yet he still stonewalled Congress and refused to answer even basic questions. That is pure contempt for accountability. https://t.co/fxupdCWrnK

— Senator Rand Paul (@SenRandPaul) August 4, 2026

In a statement, Paul laid out the sequence plainly: "Dr. Fauci appeared under subpoena and invoked the Fifth Amendment to refuse answering questions. During the hearing, I ruled that the Fifth Amendment did not apply because of the pardon, and that Fauci had waived any remaining privilege by giving opening testimony. I ordered him to answer and warned him about contempt, yet he still refused. That is obstruction of a congressional investigation. The Committee will act accordingly."

The subpoena, issued in July, directed Fauci to testify on the committee's investigation into "risky life sciences research and the origins of the COVID-19 virus." Fauci showed up on July 29, delivered an opening statement, then declined every substantive question by invoking the Fifth Amendment. Estimates of the number of invocations range from more than 100 to 112.

The July 29 hearing itself was a prolonged exercise in refusal. Fauci opened by accusing Paul of an "unhinged obsession" with him and claiming the sole purpose of the session was to trap him into saying something that would land him "behind bars."

From that point forward he answered nothing of consequence. Senators pressed him on gain-of-function research funding, the lab-leak evidence he had privately acknowledged while publicly promoting a natural-origin narrative, lockdown policies, school closures, personal financial awards solicited with federal employees on taxpayer time, and contradictions between his public statements and private diary entries. He declined them all.

Paul told Fauci near the close of the session: "I really did want to hear from Dr. Fauci. I wanted to hear perhaps an apology, perhaps some semblance of being sorry for what happened or that judgment errors were made. We didn't hear any of that."

He then ordered Fauci to answer a specific question about whether he had destroyed any federal records or directed anyone else to do so during the period covered by the pardon. Fauci again cited the Fifth. Paul ruled the privilege unsupported and scheduled the contempt vote.

Even some mainstream legal voices recognized the strategic problem with the strategy. A CNN legal analyst and an NYU law professor noted that the blanket pardon from former President Biden - covering official conduct from January 1, 2014, through January 19 or 20, 2025 - removed the usual criminal jeopardy that justifies a Fifth Amendment claim.

Once immunity is granted, the ordinary expectation is that the witness must testify. Pleading the Fifth under those conditions can itself become grounds for contempt. One analyst observed that the repeated invocations, framed by Fauci's team as protection against "perjury traps," simply raised the obvious question for ordinary viewers: why not just tell the truth?

The contempt vote is not occurring in a vacuum. Paul's committee has spent years examining the paper trail of pandemic decision-making. Emails previously highlighted by the senator show Fauci directing then-NIH Director Francis Collins to "read it, then destroy it" - language Paul has described as a clear violation of federal records law. "That is against the law. You're not allowed to do that in the executive branch," Paul has said of the instruction.

Separate reporting has also focused on research techniques funded under Fauci's NIAID. RFK Jr. has described a method known as seamless ligation, developed with federal support by Ralph Baric and later shared with Chinese researchers including Shi Zhengli. The technique is designed to erase the molecular signatures that would otherwise reveal a virus had been engineered in a laboratory.

"He funded Ralph Baric to develop a technique called seamless ligation. And that is a technique for hiding the engineering project," RFK Jr. has stated. "There is no public health reason for this; it is the opposite of what you would do if you are interested in public health."

Taken together, the pattern is consistent: public messaging that diverged from private knowledge, research choices that complicated origin tracing, instructions that raised records-destruction concerns, and now a categorical refusal to answer questions even after a presidential pardon removed the risk of criminal prosecution for the covered period.

Paul has repeatedly framed the issue as one of basic accountability rather than re-litigating every pandemic decision for its own sake. "Fauci said one thing publicly and another privately. He coordinated to control the narrative. He shaped guidance around politics instead of truth," the senator posted shortly before the resolution was introduced.

He added, "If we don't demand real accountability and reform, nothing stops the next unelected bureaucrat from doing the exact same thing."

The committee vote on Thursday is the next procedural step. If the resolution is approved, it can be referred toward the full Senate and potentially to the Department of Justice. Whether that path produces actual enforcement remains to be determined by the numbers in the Senate and the priorities of the executive branch.

What is already clear is that Fauci's decision to appear under subpoena and then decline every substantive question has now forced the formal contempt process.

Paul's committee is treating the refusal as obstruction of a legitimate congressional investigation into the origins of a virus that killed more than a million Americans and the policies that followed. The vote on Thursday will test whether that obstruction carries institutional consequences.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 08:05

"Momentum Continues": Lilly Jumps After Raising Revenue Outlook On Surging GLP-1 Demand

Shares of Eli Lilly & Co. are rising in premarket trading after the pharmaceutical giant raised its full-year revenue forecast following a 48% jump in second-quarter sales, fueled by accelerating demand for the diabetes drug Mounjaro and the obesity treatment Zepbound.

Lilly's second-quarter results topped Wall Street expectations: Adjusted earnings rose to $8.38 a share from $6.31 a year earlier. Revenue surged 48% to $22.97 billion, beating the $20.59 billion Bloomberg Consensus estimate.

Mounjaro generated $9.94 billion in sales, exceeding the $8.83 billion estimate, while Zepbound revenue climbed 18% from the previous quarter to $4.93 billion, ahead of the $4.64 billion estimate. Research and development spending increased 14% to $3.82 billion, below the $4.05 billion projected by analysts tracked by Bloomberg.

Here's a snapshot of 2Q earnings:

Adjusted EPS $8.38 vs. $6.31 y/y

Revenue $22.97 billion, +48% y/y, estimate $20.59 billion

• Zepbound revenue $4.93 billion, +18% q/q, estimate $4.64 billion *

R&D expenses $3.82 billion, +14% y/y, estimate $4.05 billion

Mounjaro revenue $9.94 billion, estimate $8.83 billion

"Lilly's momentum continues, as we delivered 48% revenue growth and raised our full-year guidance," Lilly CEO David A. Ricks wrote in a statement.

Lilly upgraded its full-year revenue forecast to between $85 billion and $87 billion, up from its previous range of $82 billion to $85 billion. The midpoint exceeds the $85.31 billion Bloomberg consensus estimate.

Ricks continued, "At the same time, Lilly is building for the future. With our next-generation weight-loss medicine retatrutide and its complete clinical data package in hand, new manufacturing capacity coming online, and exciting new assets entering our pipeline through business development, Lilly's future, after 150 years, has never been brighter."

Lilly shares jumped nearly 6% in New York premarket trading. The stock had gained about 4% this year through Tuesday's close.

The quarter also provides the first commercial readout for Lilly's newly launched obesity pill, Foundayo, which generated $98 million in sales.

The pill received U.S. approval in April and is competing directly with Novo Nordisk's rival pill, which launched several months earlier.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 07:45

Inside Ford's "Passionate" Reinvention

Ford has reshaped its business by narrowing its lineup to vehicles with stronger brand appeal and higher profit potential. Instead of offering a wide range of sedans, hatchbacks, and family cars, the company is concentrating on trucks, SUVs, sports cars, and models that customers can personalize with factory-backed upgrades, according to a new Wall Street Journal report.

At a recent event, Ford showcased customized Broncos, F-150s, and Mustangs, underscoring the company's emphasis on vehicles that stand out rather than blend in. As Matt Simpson, who leads Ford's customization business, put it, "This is the most passionate lineup that Ford has ever had."

The strategy reflects CEO Jim Farley's belief that Ford should focus on distinctive products instead of competing in crowded, low-margin segments. Rather than trying to match rivals across every category, Ford is investing in vehicles that reinforce its identity and command premium prices.

Executives argue that mainstream models such as the Focus and Escape often required costly incentives and discounts to remain competitive, making them less attractive from a financial standpoint.

The Journal writes that the company's decision also mirrors broader changes in the U.S. auto market. Buyers have increasingly gravitated toward larger pickups and SUVs, while the average price of a new vehicle has climbed to roughly $50,000. At the same time, tariffs, labor expenses, and other production costs have made it more difficult to manufacture inexpensive vehicles profitably in the United States.

As a result, Ford's least expensive models now start at close to $30,000—roughly double the entry price buyers could find in Ford's lineup a decade ago.

Although Ford has reduced the number of vehicles it sells, the company has improved its financial performance by emphasizing higher-margin products. U.S. sales in 2025 reached their highest level in six years, fueled by strong demand for models such as the F-150, Bronco, Maverick, and Mustang.

Still, total sales remain well below where they stood a decade ago because customers now have fewer choices. Dealers have also noted that eliminating familiar entry-level models makes it harder to attract first-time buyers and shoppers looking for affordable transportation.

Looking ahead, Ford says it has not abandoned the affordable segment altogether. The company plans to introduce five new vehicles priced below $40,000 before the end of the decade, beginning with a new electric pickup expected to cost around $30,000. Unlike earlier electric models that struggled to generate profits, these vehicles are being designed from the ground up with lower production costs and higher sales volumes in mind.

Ford hopes this approach will allow it to compete with market leaders while avoiding the financial challenges that affected its first generation of EVs.

Another pillar of Ford's strategy is vehicle customization. Roughly half of its customers now purchase accessories or performance upgrades, ranging from decals and cargo equipment to suspension packages and engine enhancements.

By incorporating personalization opportunities during the design process instead of after a vehicle is launched, Ford enables dealers to bundle these upgrades into financing at the time of purchase, creating an additional source of high-margin revenue.

Despite the financial logic behind the strategy, it comes with trade-offs. Longtime customers who previously drove compact cars or midsize SUVs have fewer options within the Ford brand and are often pushed toward larger, more expensive vehicles. Dealers also lose the ability to serve buyers looking for basic transportation, leaving competitors to capture those sales. Even so, Farley has made the company's priorities clear: "Every dollar must earn durable returns and drive profitable growth."

Ford is betting that a smaller lineup of distinctive, profitable vehicles will deliver stronger long-term results than offering something for every type of buyer.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 06:55

BP Retreats Further From Green Energy With Archaea Sale

Via City A.M.,

• BP plans to sell Archaea Energy after the US biogas operation delivered weaker-than-expected returns.

• Second-quarter adjusted profit climbed to $5.7 billion as Middle East disruption lifted oil and gas prices.

• Meg O’Neill is simplifying BP’s portfolio, reducing debt and concentrating investment on its most profitable assets.

BP has announced that it will offload its US biogas business just days after confirming its exit from the North Sea, as the firm looks to shift its focus back to core oil and gas products.

The London-listed oil giant has previously told investors it planned to market assets across its operating regions as part of a restructuring overseen by new boss Meg O’Neill.

BP acquired Archaea for $4.1bn in 2022, but the business has since faced financial underperformance and slower-than-expected growth, forcing the FTSE 100 giant to reassess the asset’s worth.

O’Neill said the firm must simplify its portfolio “based on value, not sentiment, nor history” and instead focus on assets which “deliver competitive returns and long-term value”.

She has previously announced plans for a major overhaul of the group’s energy channels, splitting it into two divisions, dubbed upstream and downstream, and focusing solely on profitable assets.

The push has also seen the group confirm its exit from the North Sea, leaving the British energy giant without any petrochemical production in its home market for the first time in decades. It also sold its Gelsenkirchen refinery and retail business in Austria.

O’Neill said:

“We are not making the most of our potential. Our performance over the past few years has not met our own expectations, let alone those of our shareholders. 

“We have not delivered consistently; we have written off too much value; and our costs and liabilities are not resilient enough in a low price environment.”

The stock is up over 20% since the start of the year.

Middle East conflict spikes profits

Profits spiked in the second quarter as the group continued to capitalise on volatile oil prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East.

BP reported a surge in profits to $5.7bn (£4.2bn), a $2.5bn increase from the prior period.

This surpassed analyst expectations of $5.1bn.

The firm’s gas and low carbon energy arm reported profits of $1.6bn, up from $1.1bn the prior quarter.

Oil production and operations saw profit climb to $3.4bn from $1.7bn.

Mark Crouch, market analyst at eToro, said:

“Having retreated from its previous push into renewables, BP is accelerating asset sales, simplifying the business and directing more capital towards higher-return oil and gas operations.

If tensions across the Middle East persist or escalate further, energy prices could remain elevated, providing an additional tailwind for the sector. The key question for investors is whether BP can use this favourable backdrop to create lasting shareholder value long after today’s geopolitical uncertainty eventually fades.”

Disruption ahead

The firm anticipates production in the third quarter to range from 2,100 to 2,250 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d), compared with the second quarter 2,201 mboe/d.

This has caused the group to drop its upstream production expectations for the year to 2,180 to 2,270 mboe/d, compared to last year’s 2,312 mboe/d.

BP pinned its outlook on the “continued disruption in the Middle East” and the likelihood of potential “weather events in the Gulf of America”.

The group expects income taxes paid in the quarter to be roughly $1bn higher, “mainly due to timing effects”.

O’Neill said: “We need to take a clear look at ourselves: assessing what needs to change, stopping what holds us back and building strength where it matters. We have to get fit to grow.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 06:30

You'll Never Guess Which Nation Drinks The Most Tea Or Coffee

With a global market valued at more than $300 billion in 2026, tea is said to be the second most consumed hot beverage in the world.

As the United Nations notes, the tea industry provides "a major source of income and export earnings for some of the poorest countries and, thanks to its high labor requirements, generates numerous jobs, particularly in remote and economically disadvantaged areas."

Statista Consumer Insights surveyed 32 countries around the world to find out more about global tea drinking habits.

You will find more infographics at Statista

As Statista's Katharina Buchholz details below, the survey found that while tea was a popular choice for many adults, coffee is consumed by a higher share of people in almost every country included in the survey, except for Asian tea strongholds China, India and Japan.

However, the difference to the share of respondents consuming coffee was just 2-4 percent for China and Japan and 9 percent for India.

Coffee-loving nations, on the other hand, shun tea to a higher degree. This applies to Finland, famously a nation of coffee drinkers, where 74 percent said they drank coffee regularly and just 36 percent said the same about tea. But countries like this also exist in Asia, the continent most associated with tea. In the Philippines, 70 percent said they drank coffee and 31 percent said they drank tea on a regular basis. These numbers stood at 59 percent and 25 percent in South Korea.

In Western Europe and North America, nations typically see around 60 percent of regular coffee drinkers and around 40 percent of regular tea drinkers. In Latin American countries, this was closer to 70 percent and 50 percent, respectively. The share of tea drinkers is elevated in the United Kingdom at 56 percent, the Netherlands at 55 percent and Germany at 47 percent. In the United States, a comparatively low share of people said they drank coffee regularly (51 percent), which was surpassed by soft drinks (54 percent).

And so, to answer the headline question, the highest consumption of both tea and coffee was recorded in Gulf countries Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates at around 70 percent for each beverage.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 05:45

New Signals Point To Another Possible Migrant Invasion Against Ceuta

The scenes from the Ceuta invasion were deeply alarming, as 60,000 predominantly military-aged men, many carrying no supplies, crossed from Morocco into the Spanish enclave. The invasion set off alarm bells across the West, reinforcing concerns that uncontrolled mass migration poses a major national security risk.

According to The Sun, there are new concerns that a second invasion of Ceuta could be "just days" away, as the outlet cites online posts warning it may be their [migrants] "last chance" to enter Europe.

Just kidding, this is the actual footage … pic.twitter.com/jYRpSWM24e

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 31, 2026

The outlet continued:

Fears are also mounting convicted terrorists were among the tens of thousands of people who stormed the Spanish enclave last week, reports say.

. . .

But reports say the peninsula could see scenes of mayhem play out on the streets yet again, as plans are being made for another mass border crossing on August 15.

On social media, posts appear to be plotting another storming of the shores of Ceuta, with one message reading: "Everything will be seen that day."

Another appears to call for the creation of a WhatsApp group, saying: "Our appointment is on 15/08/2026."

The invasion prompted Italy to suspend Schengen arrangements with Spain and to secure its borders, while 22 EU leaders demanded "immediate action" to address the national security threat. Denmark's Mette Frederiksen, Italy's Giorgia Meloni, Germany's Friedrich Merz, and other European leaders warned:

"We cannot allow uncontrolled mass crossings, the instrumentalization of migration or other hybrid threats to create the perception that illegal entry into the European Union is possible."

Reports that emerged in recent days show that Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's (unhinged socialist) claim that the migrants had been expelled from Ceuta may not have reflected the situation on the ground. Read the full report.

Years of open-border policies under Spain's socialist government may now be approaching a political breaking point. The invasion of military-aged men was so visible to the world in real time on X, making it increasingly difficult for lefty corporate media to reconstruct the narrative and gaslight the public into believing this was merely a humanitarian migration event. The images instead reinforced views of a coordinated border invasion and undercut the left-wing narrative framing such arrivals solely as poor migrants searching for milk and bread.

Related:

• Spain's Immigration Crisis: Ceuta & The Collapse Of Sánchez's Pro-Migration Experiment

We noted last week:

• Spain's Border Invasion Is An Optics Disaster For Open-Border Democrats

Hopefully, common sense can return to the West: secure borders. And, really, hold those accountable for nation-killing open border policies.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 05:45

France's €107 Billion Deficit Shock: The Next Euro Debt Crisis?

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

Tuesday marked another low point for European fiscal stability. France, a cornerstone of the euro system, confirmed once again that it remains a leading candidate and potential trigger for a future euro financial crisis.

According to the French Ministry of Finance, the deficit of the French central government amounted to around €107 billion by the end of June. These are staggering figures – a deficit that is 14.4 percent higher than originally planned by the government.

Source

Unless the government builds a fiscal firewall and no economic miracle occurs, the central government deficit could rise to around six percent this year. Not included are the gaps in the social security system, municipalities and regions, which account for an additional significant share of France’s overall deficit. It is possible that the second-largest economy in the European Union will end the year with an overall government deficit of around eight percent.

All budget plans would therefore become obsolete. Last year, the government was already calculating with a deficit of five percent – a figure that, under the originally defined Maastricht criteria, should have triggered an excessive deficit procedure. However, the euro debt club has long abandoned any fiscal restraints.

The problem lies not only on the revenue side. While government revenues recently increased by around 3.7 percent, expenditures rose by 5.4 percent at the same time. The state is growing faster than the economic base that is supposed to finance it.

Despite tax increases and difficult negotiations over spending cuts, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has failed to slow down his country’s debt spiral even remotely.

French fiscal policy can no longer be taken seriously. Forecasts from Paris now have the half-life of the French prime ministers who have failed in increasingly shorter intervals.

The spectacle France is presenting to the world will have consequences. The debt struggle of the Grande Nation no longer concerns France alone, but the entire euro system and the European Union.

It is becoming increasingly clear that European policy over recent years has contributed to a dramatic loss of economic dynamism and productivity. France is facing political paralysis, a president without popular support and the ongoing disintegration of a society that maintains one of the largest welfare states in the world, with a government spending ratio of 57 percent, in an attempt to cover its social fractures.

Cultural alien migration has a price, and sooner or later that price inevitably becomes visible in fiscal policy.

France is also following the German model and constructing its own state economy through debt in an attempt to overcome a never-ending productivity crisis. It is remarkable that this belief in the healing power of central planning can be found throughout the European Union. Has nobody learned the fundamental lessons of history?

The more capital is redirected from the productive sectors of the economy into the construction of a political economy, the poorer the population becomes. This is how socialism works.

We know this pattern from Germany: The state is effectively consuming itself. The greater the damage caused by an expanding state economy in the productive sectors of society, the higher the tax burden and inflationary pressures will ultimately become.

Following this logic, France has raised several taxes over the past twelve months. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu shifted additional burdens primarily onto companies and higher-income earners.

The special levy on large companies with revenues exceeding one billion euros was extended and is expected to generate around €7.3 billion in additional government revenue. In addition, an extended special tax on high incomes is expected to bring in around €650 million. Further measures complete the tax package. Overall, the additional revenues are intended to reduce the burden on the French budget by around €9 billion.

https://www.reuters.com/business/what-is-frances-2026-budget-2026-02-02/

Yet even this fiscal effort is completely out of proportion to the scale of the budget problem. Tax increases are merely treating the symptoms – they do not solve the structural crisis of the French welfare state.

The problems are similar to those in Germany. There are no serious efforts to resolve the migration crisis, no fundamental reform of social programs and no strategy to create new economic momentum through tax relief for the middle class.

France resembles a slow-motion car crash. Everyone sees the collision coming, yet nobody still has the strength to soften the impact.

What happens if the bond market lowers the thumb on France’s creditworthiness?

The rating agencies have already sent warning signals. Fitch downgraded France’s credit rating from AA− to A+ and pointed to the growing debt burden, political uncertainty and the lack of a sustainable path toward stabilizing public finances.

https://www.reuters.com/world/fitch-abaisse-dun-cran-la-note-de-la-france-2025-09-12/

We are witnessing the first signs of a new euro debt crisis emerging on the horizon. Looking back, we must recognize that politics found it easy for a long time to exploit the fiat credit money system and the ECB, integrated into the political process, in order to maintain the illusion of unlimited political feasibility.

Regardless of where in the EU: Politics continues to uphold the illusion that the welfare system has no limits as long as the flow of credit does not dry up.

Reassured and lulled into a false sense of security, nobody questions the political strategy that led to the economic disaster. Yet these quiet times may soon come to an end as interest rates on bond markets continue to rise.

* * * 

About the author Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 05:00

How Economic Power Has Shifted Over The Past 200 Years

Over the last 200 years, economic leadership has shifted from China to the British Empire, then to the United States, and increasingly back toward Asia.

This streamgraph, via Visual Capitalist's Gabriel Cohen, tracks how the share of global gross domestic product (GDP) held by major economies changed from 1820 to 2025. The visualization incorporates the latest available data from the Maddison Project Database, the COLDAT Colonial Dates Dataset, and the IMF’s World Economic Outlook.

All GDP figures are adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP), accounting for differences in living costs and production across countries.

The table below shows how each economy’s share of world GDP changed across two centuries:

Economy Share of World GDP (%) 1820 1855 1890 1925 1960 1995 2025 🇨🇳 China 28.6% 21.1% 12.7% 8.9% 5.3% 9.5% 21.8% 🇺🇸 U.S. 2.3% 7.0% 14.6% 23.9% 24.5% 20.7% 14.7% 🇪🇺 EU — — — — — 17.0% 12.3% 🇮🇳 India — — — — 3.9% 4.3% 9.0% 🇯🇵 Japan 3.5% 2.9% 2.6% 3.8% 4.5% 7.9% 3.4% 🇷🇺 Russia / USSR 9.2% 7.1% 5.3% 5.2% 10.1% 2.5% 2.9% 🇬🇧 British Empire / Britain 23.1% 22.6% 20.7% 14.7% 6.3% 3.2% 1.9% 🇫🇷 France 4.8% 5.8% 5.2% 5.0% 4.1% — — 🇩🇪 Germany 4.3% 4.8% 6.4% 6.6% 6.7% — — Pax Britannica and the European Years

Britain was the first country in the world to industrialize. As a result, the British Empire became the world’s preeminent superpower during the 19th century, an era sometimes known as Pax Britannica because of the relative absence of conflict between the major powers.

In 1845, the British Empire, on which the sun famously “never set,” contributed nearly one-quarter (23.8%) of global GDP. India was the empire’s most economically significant possession before gaining independence in 1947.

The table below shows each economy’s peak share of world GDP, the year it reached that level, and its share in 2025:

Economy Peak Share (%) Peak Year 2025 Share (%) 🇺🇸 U.S. 29.7% 1944 14.7% 🇨🇳 China 28.6% 1820 21.8% 🇬🇧 British Empire / Britain 23.8% 1845 1.9% 🇪🇺 EU 17.9% 2007 12.3% 🇷🇺 Russia / USSR 10.2% 1956 2.9% 🇮🇳 India 9.0% 2025 9.0% 🇩🇪 Germany 8.8% 1913   🇯🇵 Japan 8.6% 1990 3.4% 🇫🇷 France 6.6% 1858  

The rest of Europe’s fortunes followed a similar trajectory. The French Empire reached its peak share in 1858, at 6.6%, while Germany peaked at 8.8% in 1913, on the eve of the First World War.

Following decades of war and declining influence on the world stage, several European economies joined together in the European Union. The bloc contributed 17.9% of global GDP in 2007, ahead of the global financial crisis, though its share later declined and was further reduced by the UK’s withdrawal in 2020.

The Fall of Empire and the Rise of the U.S.

If the 19th century was the British century, the 20th was the American century. Like Britain before it, the U.S. became the world’s largest exporter for a time.

World War II marked a turning point in global economic leadership. By 1944, the U.S. accounted for 29.7% of world GDP, the highest share reached by any economy in the modern period covered by this dataset.

American economic dominance was supported by high-value industries and the country’s central role in global finance, manufacturing, and trade.

The U.S. also continues to dominate rankings of the world’s largest and most profitable companies today. It also is still the undisputed economic powerhouse in nominal GDP terms.

The Asian Century

For centuries, China was a center of the global economy. Political instability and its failure to keep pace with European industrialization contributed to a long decline in its share of world GDP during the 19th and 20th centuries.

Beginning in the late 20th century, economic reforms and China’s emergence as a global manufacturing hub helped it regain lost ground. By 2025, China accounted for 21.8% of world GDP, or more than one-fifth of the total.

The full dataset below shows each economy’s share of world GDP for every year from 1820 to 2025:

Year Share of World GDP (%) 🇨🇳 China 🇺🇸 U.S. 🇪🇺 EU 🇮🇳 India 🇯🇵 Japan 🇷🇺 Russia / USSR 🇬🇧 British Empire / Britain 🇫🇷 France 🇩🇪 Germany 1820 28.6% 2.3% — — 3.5% 9.2% 23.1% 4.8% 4.3% 1821 28.4% 2.4% — — 3.5% 9.2% 23.0% 5.2% 4.4% 1822 28.2% 2.5% — — 3.4% 9.2% 23.0% 5.0% 4.4% 1823 28.1% 2.5% — — 3.4% 9.2% 23.0% 5.1% 4.4% 1824 27.9% 2.6% — — 3.4% 9.2% 23.2% 5.2% 4.6% 1825 27.7% 2.7% — — 3.4% 9% 23.2% 5.0% 4.6% 1826 27.6% 2.8% — — 3.4% 9% 22.8% 5.1% 4.7% 1827 27.4% 2.9% — — 3.4% 9% 23.1% 5.0% 4.6% 1828 27.2% 2.9% — — 3.3% 9% 23.0% 4.9% 4.5% 1829 27.0% 2.9% — — 3.3% 9% 22.9% 5.0% 4.5% 1830 26.9% 3.1% — — 3.3% 8.7% 23.1% 4.9% 4.5% 1831 26.6% 3.4% — — 3.3% 8.7% 23.0% 5.0% 4.4% 1832 26.4% 3.6% — — 3.3% 8.7% 23.1% 5.4% 4.5% 1833 26.2% 3.8% — — 3.3% 8.7% 23.0% 5.2% 4.7% 1834 26.0% 3.7% — — 3.2% 8.7% 23.0% 5.2% 4.7% 1835 25.8% 3.9% — — 3.2% 8.4% 23.4% 5.4% 4.7% 1836 25.6% 4.0% — — 3.2% 8.4% 23.4% 5.2% 4.7% 1837 25.4% 4.0% — — 3.2% 8.4% 23.2% 5.3% 4.7% 1838 25.2% 4.0% — — 3.2% 8.4% 23.4% 5.5% 4.6% 1839 25.0% 4.2% — — 3.2% 8.4% 23.1% 5.3% 4.7% 1840 24.8% 4.1% — — 3.2% 8.3% 23.4% 5.6% 4.8% 1841 24.6% 4.1% — — 3.1% 8.3% 23.1% 5.7% 4.9% 1842 24.4% 4.2% — — 3.1% 8.3% 22.8% 5.5% 4.8% 1843 24.2% 4.3% — — 3.1% 8.3% 23.0% 5.8% 4.7% 1844 24.0% 4.7% — — 3.1% 8.3% 23.6% 5.9% 4.7% 1845 23.8% 4.9% — — 3.1% 8.2% 23.8% 5.7% 4.8% 1846 23.6% 5.0% — — 3.1% 8.2% 23.6% 5.7% 4.6% 1847 23.4% 5.2% — — 3.0% 8.2% 23.3% 6.2% 4.6% 1848 23.2% 5.5% — — 3.0% 8.2% 23.3% 5.8% 4.8% 1849 23.0% 5.4% — — 3.0% 8.2% 23.2% 5.9% 5.0% 1850 22.9% 5.5% — — 3.0% 7.7% 22.9% 6.0% 5.0% 1851 22.5% 5.9% — — 3.0% 7.7% 22.9% 5.8% 4.9% 1852 22.1% 6.3% — — 3.0% 7.7% 23.0% 6.1% 4.9% 1853 21.8% 6.9% — — 2.9% 7.7% 23.0% 5.8% 4.8% 1854 21.4% 7.0% — — 2.9% 7.7% 23.0% 6.0% 4.9% 1855 21.1% 7.0% — — 2.9% 7.1% 22.6% 5.8% 4.8% 1856 20.8% 7.3% — — 2.9% 7.1% 22.9% 6.0% 5.1% 1857 20.4% 7.3% — — 2.9% 7.1% 22.7% 6.3% 5.3% 1858 20.1% 7.4% — — 2.9% 7.1% 22.2% 6.6% 5.2% 1859 19.8% 7.7% — — 2.9% 7.1% 22.4% 6.1% 5.2% 1860 19.5% 8.0% — — 2.9% 7.1% 22.3% 6.5% 5.4% 1861 19.2% 8.0% — — 2.9% 6.8% 22.0% 6.0% 5.2% 1862 19.0% 8.3% — — 2.9% 6.1% 21.3% 6.4% 5.4% 1863 18.8% 9.0% — — 2.8% 7.3% 21.8% 6.6% 5.7% 1864 18.6% 9.4% — — 2.8% 6.0% 21.8% 6.6% 5.8% 1865 18.3% 9.0% — — 2.8% 5.4% 21.7% 6.3% 5.8% 1866 18.1% 9.1% — — 2.8% 6.6% 21.7% 6.3% 5.8% 1867 17.9% 9.5% — — 2.8% 5.6% 21.6% 5.8% 5.7% 1868 17.7% 9.7% — — 2.8% 5.7% 21.8% 6.3% 6.0% 1869 17.4% 10.0% — — 2.8% 5.6% 21.6% 6.4% 6.0% 1870 17.2% 9.8% — — 2.8% 7.2% 21.8% 5.8% 5.9% 1871 16.9% 10.1% — — 2.8% 5.9% 21.4% 5.7% 5.7% 1872 16.6% 10.3% — — 2.7% 6.3% 21.2% 6.1% 6.0% 1873 16.3% 10.6% — — 2.7% 6.3% 21.1% 5.6% 6.1% 1874 16.0% 10.3% — — 2.7% 7.6% 20.9% 6.2% 6.5% 1875 15.7% 10.7% — — 2.6% 5.8% 20.9% 6.2% 6.4% 1876 15.4% 10.6% — — 2.6% 5.8% 20.6% 5.6% 6.2% 1877 15.1% 10.7% — — 2.6% 7.1% 20.4% 5.8% 6.1% 1878 14.8% 11.0% — — 2.6% 7.3% 20.1% 5.6% 6.2% 1879 14.6% 12.1% — — 2.6% 6.1% 20.0% 5.2% 6.0% 1880 14.3% 13.3% — — 2.6% 5.6% 20.2% 5.5% 5.8% 1881 14.0% 13.5% — — 2.6% 7.1% 20.3% 5.7% 5.8% 1882 13.8% 14.1% — — 2.6% 6.1% 20.7% 5.8% 5.8% 1883 13.5% 14.1% — — 2.5% 6.3% 20.6% 5.7% 6.0% 1884 13.3% 14.1% — — 2.5% 6.2% 20.4% 5.5% 6.0% 1885 13.1% 13.9% — — 2.5% 5.5% 20.2% 5.3% 6.1% 1886 12.8% 14.1% — — 2.6% 5.2% 19.8% 5.3% 6.0% 1887 12.6% 14.4% — — 2.6% 6.1% 20.4% 5.2% 6.1% 1888 12.6% 14.1% — — 2.4% 5.8% 20.6% 5.2% 6.2% 1889 12.7% 14.7% — — 2.5% 5.4% 20.5% 5.2% 6.3% 1890 12.7% 14.6% — — 2.6% 5.3% 20.7% 5.2% 6.4% 1891 12.5% 14.9% — — 2.4% 4.8% 19.6% 5.3% 6.2% 1892 12.3% 16.1% — — 2.5% 5.2% 19.6% 5.3% 6.4% 1893 12.2% 15.0% — — 2.5% 5.9% 19.4% 5.3% 6.6% 1894 12.0% 14.3% — — 2.7% 6.6% 19.8% 5.4% 6.6% 1895 11.9% 15.7% — — 2.7% 6.1% 19.5% 5.2% 6.8% 1896 11.7% 15.1% — — 2.5% 6.7% 18.9% 5.3% 6.9% 1897 11.6% 16.2% — — 2.5% 6.5% 20.1% 5.1% 7.0% 1898 11.4% 16.3% — — 2.9% 6.6% 20.3% 5.3% 7.1% 1899 11.2% 17.4% — — 2.7% 7.0% 19.7% 5.5% 7.2% 1900 11.1% 17.5% — — 2.7% 6.8% 19.6% 5.3% 7.4% 1901 10.9% 19.2% — — 2.7% 7.0% 19.5% 5.1% 7.1% 1902 10.7% 19.1% — — 2.5% 7.6% 20.2% 5.0% 7.2% 1903 10.6% 19.7% — — 2.8% 7.1% 20.1% 5.0% 7.4% 1904 10.4% 19.1% — — 2.7% 7.8% 19.9% 5.0% 7.6% 1905 10.2% 20.2% — — 2.6% 6.9% 19.8% 5.0% 7.7% 1906 10.0% 22.2% — — 2.9% 6.6% 20.2% 5.0% 7.8% 1907 9.9% 22.2% — — 2.9% 6.4% 19.7% 5.1% 8.0% 1908 9.7% 20.1% — — 2.9% 7.0% 19.1% 5.0% 8.0% 1909 9.5% 22.0% — — 2.8% 7.2% 20.1% 5.1% 8.0% 1910 9.4% 21.7% — — 2.8% 7.8% 20.2% 4.7% 8.2% 1911 9.3% 22.0% — — 2.9% 7.2% 20.2% 5.1% 8.3% 1912 9.6% 22.5% — — 2.9% 7.8% 20.1% 5.5% 8.5% 1913 10.0% 22.9% — — 2.9% 8.2% 20.1% 5.3% 8.8% 1914 9.9% 20.6% — — 2.8% 7.7% 20.2% 4.9% 7.3% 1915 9.9% 20.8% — — 3.0% 7.8% 20.3% 4.7% 6.9% 1916 9.9% 23.1% — — 3.4% 6.8% 20.5% 4.9% 6.8% 1917 9.8% 22.1% — — 3.5% 5.8% 20.1% 4.1% 6.7% 1918 9.8% 23.5% — — 3.5% 3.5% 18.8% 3.1% 6.6% 1919 9.8% 23.2% — — 3.8% 3.0% 16.3% 3.6% 5.3% 1920 9.7% 22.5% — — 3.4% 2.9% 14.5% 4.2% 5.6% 1921 9.5% 21.4% — — 3.7% 2.6% 14.1% 3.9% 6.1% 1922 9.4% 21.9% — — 3.7% 2.9% 14.7% 4.5% 6.5% 1923 9.2% 24.1% — — 3.6% 3.3% 14.3% 4.6% 5.3% 1924 9.0% 24.1% — — 3.7% 4.2% 14.6% 5.1% 6.0% 1925 8.9% 23.9% — — 3.8% 5.2% 14.7% 5.0% 6.6% 1926 8.7% 24.8% — — 3.7% 5.8% 14.4% 5.0% 6.6% 1927 8.5% 24.3% — — 3.6% 6.1% 14.6% 4.8% 7.1% 1928 8.4% 23.9% — — 3.8% 6.4% 14.5% 5.0% 7.2% 1929 8.2% 24.6% — — 3.9% 6.4% 14.7% 5.2% 7.0% 1930 8.2% 21.8% — — 3.5% 6.6% 14.4% 5.0% 6.8% 1931 8.0% 19.9% — — 3.5% 6.6% 13.7% 4.5% 6.1% 1932 8.1% 16.5% — — 3.7% 6.4% 13.4% 4.2% 5.5% 1933 7.1% 15.6% — — 3.9% 6.5% 13.2% 4.3% 5.8% 1934 7.1% 16.5% — — 3.8% 7.0% 13.4% 4.2% 6.1% 1935 7.5% 18.2% — — 3.9% 7.8% 12.9% 4.0% 6.4% 1936 7.8% 19.5% — — 4.0% 8.3% 13.2% 4.1% 6.8% 1937 7.4% 20.5% — — 4.1% 8.9% 13.0% 4.2% 7.1% 1938 7.0% 18.8% — — 4.2% 8.8% 12.8% 4.1% 7.5% 1939 6.8% 19.7% — — 4.7% 9.2% 12.7% 4.3% 8.0% 1940 6.5% 20.8% — — 4.7% 8.8% 13.1% 3.5% 7.9% 1941 6.4% 23.5% — — 4.8% 8.3% 13.7% 2.7% 8.3% 1942 6.2% 25.8% — — 4.8% 7.9% 13.8% 2.4% 8.3% 1943 6.1% 27.9% — — 4.7% 7.6% 14.0% 2.3% 8.4% 1944 6.0% 29.7% — — 4.7% 7.2% 13.5% 1.9% 8.5% 1945 5.8% 28.8% — — 3.5% 6.8% 12.9% 2.0% 6.0% 1946 5.7% 25.9% — — 2.6% 6.5% 12.2% 3.0% 2.8% 1947 5.5% 25.2% — 4.2% 2.6% 7.2% 7.0% 3.3% 3.1% 1948 5.4% 26.2% — 4.2% 2.8% 8.1% 8.0% 3.5% 3.7% 1949 5.3% 25.4% — 4.2% 2.8% 8.9% 8.2% 3.9% 4.2% 1950 5.2% 27.4% — 4.2% 3.0% 9.6% 8.1% 4.2% 5.0% 1951 6.0% 28.2% — 4.1% 3.3% 9.2% 8.0% 4.2% 5.2% 1952 6.4% 27.9% — 4.0% 3.5% 9.4% 7.7% 4.1% 5.4% 1953 6.9% 27.9% — 4.1% 3.6% 9.4% 7.6% 4.1% 5.6% 1954 6.2% 26.5% — 4.1% 3.6% 9.4% 7.7% 4.1% 5.8% 1955 6.4% 27.1% — 4.0% 3.7% 9.7% 7.6% 4.1% 6.1% 1956 6.7% 26.4% — 4.0% 3.8% 10.2% 7.3% 4.1% 6.2% 1957 6.5% 25.7% — 3.8% 3.9% 9.9% 7.0% 4.2% 6.3% 1958 6.3% 24.3% — 3.9% 4.0% 10.2% 6.7% 4.1% 6.3% 1959 5.8% 25.0% — 3.8% 4.2% 9.6% 6.7% 4.0% 6.5% 1960 5.3% 24.5% — 3.9% 4.5% 10.1% 6.3% 4.1% 6.7% 1961 4.1% 23.8% — 3.8% 4.8% 10.1% 6.1% 4.1% 6.6% 1962 4.2% 24.0% — 3.7% 5.0% 9.9% 5.7% 4.2% 6.6% 1963 4.6% 23.9% — 3.7% 5.1% 9.2% 5.3% 4.2% 6.4% 1964 4.9% 24.0% — 3.8% 5.4% 9.9% 5.3% 4.3% 6.5% 1965 5.2% 24.3% — 3.5% 5.5% 9.9% 5.1% 4.2% 6.5% 1966 5.2% 24.6% — 3.3% 5.8% 9.9% 5.0% 4.2% 6.3% 1967 4.9% 24.0% — 3.4% 6.1% 9.9% 4.8% 4.2% 6.0% 1968 4.6% 23.9% — 3.4% 6.5% 9.9% 4.7% 4.2% 6.1% 1969 4.8% 23.5% — 3.4% 7.0% 9.6% 4.6% 4.3% 6.2% 1970 5.2% 22.4% — 3.4% 7.4% 9.8% 4.5% 4.3% 6.1% 1971 5.3% 22.2% — 3.3% 7.4% 9.7% 4.3% 4.3% 6.1% 1972 5.2% 22.6% — 3.2% 7.8% 9.4% 4.3% 4.4% 6.1% 1973 5.4% 22.9% — 3.2% 8.1% 9.8% 4.4% 4.4% 6.1% 1974 5.4% 22.0% — 3.1% 7.7% 9.7% 4.2% 4.4% 6.0% 1975 5.5% 21.2% — 3.3% 7.6% 9.4% 4.1% 4.2% 5.7% 1976 5.1% 21.4% — 3.2% 7.6% 9.5% 4.0% 4.2% 5.8% 1977 5.2% 21.6% — 3.3% 7.7% 9.3% 3.9% 4.2% 5.7% 1978 5.6% 22.0% — 3.4% 7.8% 9.2% 3.9% 4.2% 5.6% 1979 5.8% 21.9% — 3.1% 7.9% 8.8% 3.9% 4.2% 5.7% 1980 5.9% 21.1% — 3.2% 7.8% 8.5% 3.6% 4.1% 5.5% 1981 5.9% 21.0% — 3.3% 7.8% 8.3% 3.5% 4.0% 5.4% 1982 6.3% 20.0% — 3.3% 7.8% 8.3% 3.4% 4.0% 5.2% 1983 6.5% 20.2% — 3.4% 7.8% 8.3% 3.5% 3.9% 5.1% 1984 7.0% 21.1% — 3.5% 7.8% 8.2% 3.4% 3.8% 5.1% 1985 7.4% 21.2% — 3.5% 8.0% 8.0% 3.5% 3.8% 5.0% 1986 7.7% 21.3% — 3.5% 8.0% 8.1% 3.5% 3.8% 5.0% 1987 8.1% 21.4% — 3.6% 8.0% 8.0% 3.5% 3.7% 4.9% 1988 8.3% 21.7% — 3.9% 8.3% 7.9% 3.6% 3.8% 5.0% 1989 8.1% 21.8% — 4.0% 8.4% 7.8% 3.6% 3.8% 5.0% 1990 7.9% 21.5% — 4.1% 8.6% 7.4% 3.5% 3.8% 4.7% 1991 7.9% 20.7% — 4.0% 8.6% 6.8% 3.4% 3.7% 4.8% 1992 8.2% 20.8% — 4.0% 8.4% 3.4% 3.2% 3.7% 4.8% 1993 8.7% 20.6% 15.8% 4.1% 8.1% 3.1% 3.2% — — 1994 9.0% 20.8% 15.8% 4.2% 7.9% 2.6% 3.2% — — 1995 9.5% 20.7% 17.0% 4.3% 7.9% 2.5% 3.2% — — 1996 9.8% 20.8% 16.8% 4.5% 7.8% 2.4% 3.2% — — 1997 9.8% 21.0% 16.8% 4.5% 7.7% 2.4% 3.2% — — 1998 9.5% 21.2% 16.9% 4.6% 7.3% 2.2% 3.1% — — 1999 9.6% 21.5% 16.9% 4.7% 7.1% 2.4% 3.1% — — 2000 9.9% 21.6% 17.1% 4.7% 7.0% 2.6% 3.1% — — 2001 10.2% 21.0% 16.9% 4.7% 6.8% 2.7% 3.1% — — 2002 10.5% 20.5% 16.5% 4.7% 6.5% 2.7% 3.0% — — 2003 10.7% 20.2% 16.1% 4.8% 6.3% 2.9% 3.0% — — 2004 11.1% 20.2% 17.6% 5.0% 6.2% 3.0% 3.0% — — 2005 11.7% 20.0% 17.4% 5.1% 6.1% 3.2% 3.0% — — 2006 12.4% 19.7% 17.4% 5.3% 5.9% 3.4% 2.9% — — 2007 13.0% 19.3% 17.9% 5.5% 5.8% 3.6% 2.9% — — 2008 13.0% 18.5% 17.5% 5.6% 5.5% 3.7% 2.7% — — 2009 13.4% 17.2% 16.2% 5.8% 5.0% 3.4% 2.5% — — 2010 14.3% 17.0% 16.0% 6.0% 5.0% 3.5% 2.4% — — 2011 14.7% 16.6% 15.8% 6.2% 4.8% 3.6% 2.4% — — 2012 15.3% 16.4% 15.2% 6.3% 4.7% 3.6% 2.3% — — 2013 16.0% 16.2% 14.7% 6.4% 4.6% 3.5% 2.3% — — 2014 16.6% 16.0% 14.5% 6.7% 4.5% 3.4% 2.3% — — 2015 17.1% 15.8% 14.3% 6.9% 4.4% 3.2% 2.3% — — 2016 17.7% 15.6% 14.1% 7.3% 4.3% 3.1% 2.2% — — 2017 18.2% 15.4% 14.0% 7.5% 4.2% 3.1% 2.2% — — 2018 18.8% 15.3% 13.8% 7.7% 4.1% 3.0% 2.2% — — 2019 19.4% 15.2% 13.6% 7.9% 4.0% 3.0% 2.1% — — 2020 20.4% 15.2% 13.2% 7.5% 3.9% 3.0% 2.0% — — 2021 20.8% 15.2% 13.1% 7.8% 3.8% 3.0% 2.0% — — 2022 20.7% 15.0% 13.1% 8.1% 3.7% 2.9% 2.0% — — 2023 21.2% 14.9% 12.8% 8.4% 3.6% 2.9% 1.9% — — 2024 21.5% 14.8% 12.5% 8.7% 3.5% 2.9% 1.9% — — 2025 21.8% 14.7% 12.3% 9.0% 3.4% 2.9% 1.9% — —

Together, China and India accounted for 30.8% of global GDP in 2025. Their large populations and lower production costs give both countries greater weight when output is measured using purchasing power parity.

Whether this shift continues will depend partly on how China addresses demographic pressures similar to those facing Japan and the European Union, as well as broader challenges related to productivity and economic growth.

To see how the world’s major Western industrialized economies are losing GDP share, read The G7’s Share of Global GDP is Shrinking on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 04:15

US Expands Strategic Foothold On Somalia's Coast As Yemen Conflict Simmers

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

A US military delegation visited the local government in Somalia's northeastern Puntland region on Sunday and signed a deal to expand the US military presence in Bosaso, a port city on the Gulf of Aden, according to the Puntland government.

Saeed Abdullahi Deni, the president of Puntland State, held talks with a delegation led by Maj. Gen. Claude Tudor, the commander of US Special Operations Command Africa.

Maj. Gen. Tudor and President Deni. Source: Puntland government image

"Puntland and the United States also signed a new agreement to expand their cooperation. Under the agreement, the United States will expand its military base in Bosaso to improve operations against terrorism and to help protect maritime security," the Puntland government said in a statement on the meeting.

The US has been operating from a UAE-built airbase in Bosaso, which the UAE has reportedly used to arm the RSF in Sudan.

An expanded US military presence in Bosaso could be used as a launchpad for operations against Yemen's Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis, and the deal comes as Ansar Allah is enforcing a new maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea ports, which began after Saudi strikes on Yemen’s Sanaa International Airpoirt, attacks that reignited the conflict that was in a state of ceasefire since 2022.

Tudor visited Puntland a day after meeting with officials in Somaliland, a de facto independent state within Somalia’s internationally recognized borders.

It’s unclear if any deals were signed in that meeting, but Israel recently became the first country to recognize Somaliland as an independent country and is seeking to establish a military and intelligence presence for operations against Yemen.

According to the Somali Guardian, the US-Puntland deal bypassed the US-backed federal government in Mogadishu, which has been at odds with Puntland amid a political crisis sparked by changes to the constitution made by Somali President Hassan Sheik Mohamud. Puntland withdrew from the federal system in 2024, and this year clashes have occurred between forces loyal to the federal government and Puntland security forces.

The US has continued to back the federal government with airstrikes against al-Shabaab, and it has also been engaged in an air campaign against an ISIS affiliate in Puntland, where it backs local Puntland forces.

via BBC

President Trump has overseen a major escalation in Somalia, launching at least 124 airstrikes in 2025, a record number. The US has launched at least 77 airstrikes in Somalia this year, though the war receives virtually no media coverage in the US.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 03:30

Which Countries Think They're On The Right Track?

Public confidence in national direction varies dramatically around the world. Respondents in several Asian countries are broadly optimistic, while majorities across much of Europe and the Americas believe their countries are on the wrong track.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Gabriel Cohen, ranks 30 countries by the percentage of adults ages 16 to 74 who believe their country is moving in the right or wrong direction.

The visualization uses 2026 survey data from Ipsos Global Opinion Polls and covers 25,709 respondents.

Asian Optimism in 2026

Asian countries dominate the top of the ranking, accounting for six of the seven countries where a majority of respondents believe their country is on the right track.

Singapore leads at 86%, followed by Malaysia at 74% and India at 69%. Indonesia and Thailand are tied at 62%, while South Korea stands at 58%.

This table ranks all 30 countries:

CountryApproval of Country Direction (%)Disapproval of Country Direction (%) 🇸🇬 Singapore8614 🇲🇾 Malaysia7426 🇮🇳 India6931 🇹🇭 Thailand6238 🇮🇩 Indonesia6238 🇰🇷 S. Korea5842 🇦🇷 Argentina5545 🇨🇱 Chile4852 🇨🇴 Colombia4654 🇨🇦 Canada4555 🇦🇺 Australia4456 🇵🇱 Poland4357 🇮🇪 Ireland4258 🇯🇵 Japan4159 🇺🇸 U.S.4060 🇮🇱 Israel3664 🇲🇽 Mexico3664 🇧🇷 Brazil3466 🇳🇱 Netherlands3268 🇸🇪 Sweden3169 🇪🇸 Spain3169 🇮🇹 Italy3169 🇧🇪 Belgium3070 🇹🇷 Türkiye2872 🇿🇦 South Africa2377 🇭🇺 Hungary2377 🇩🇪 Germany2377 🇬🇧 Great Britain2179 🇵🇪 Peru1585 🇫🇷 France1090 🌐 World4159

Economic momentum may help explain some of this confidence. The AI boom is supporting major South Korean companies such as Samsung and SK Hynix, while India and Indonesia remain two of the world’s largest emerging markets.

Japan is a notable exception to the broader regional pattern. Following decades of economic stagnation, 41% of Japanese respondents believe their country is on the right track, matching the global average.

Pessimism Outside Asia

Outside Asia, most countries surveyed across Europe, the Americas, and Africa report greater pessimism than optimism.

In the United States, 40% of respondents approve of their country’s direction. Israel and Mexico are tied at 36%, while 34% of Brazilians believe their country is on the right track ahead of national elections in October 2026.

Türkiye stands at 28%, while South Africa is lower at 23%. In Peru, which has had nine presidents in a decade, 85% of respondents believe their country is on the wrong track.

Europe’s Pessimistic Outlook

France ranks last overall, with only one in 10 respondents saying the country is headed in the right direction.

Several of its European neighbors also rank near the bottom. In Great Britain, which has had multiple prime ministers since the 2016 Brexit vote, 79% of respondents believe the country is on the wrong track.

Germany also ranks near the bottom, with just 23% of respondents saying the country is moving in the right direction. Economic weakness and job losses may be contributing to the country’s broader social and political unease.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Visualized: Approval Rating of Global Leaders in 2026 on Voronoi.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 02:45

Half Of Foreign Welfare Recipients In Spain Are Moroccan

Via Remix News,

Nearly half of all foreign nationals receiving Spain’s Minimum Living Income (IMV) are Moroccan, according to previously unpublished figures obtained by The Objective through a transparency request.

The National Social Security Institute recorded 139,446 foreign recipients of the benefit, including 69,517 Moroccan nationals.

Foreigners therefore account for approximately half of the nearly 280,000 registered recipients, while Moroccans represent almost 50 percent of the foreign total.

The figures provide the first official nationality-by-nationality breakdown of foreign IMV recipients.

Public statistics had previously distinguished only between Spanish and foreign claimants without identifying their countries of origin.

Romanians formed the second-largest foreign group, with 15,262 recipients, followed by Ukrainians with 4,612.

Colombians accounted for 3,549 recipients, Algerians for 3,362, Italians for 3,043, and Bulgarians for 2,826.

Other recipients included Portuguese, Pakistani, Venezuelan, Brazilian, and Nigerian nationals. More than 100 nationalities were represented overall, alongside 215 people categorized under “other nationalities” and 175 stateless recipients.

The data counts only the registered recipient in each household, rather than every family member supported by the payment. The actual number of people benefiting from the program is therefore higher.

The totals also exclude the Basque Country and Navarre, which administer the Minimum Living Income independently under their special fiscal arrangements.

Social Security data also indicates that around 70 percent of Moroccan women of working age do not formally contribute to Spain’s employment system, reflecting particularly low labor-force participation among that group.

The publication of the figures comes at a politically sensitive time, given the much-reported migrant influx from the Arab country into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta.

Over 50,000 Moroccans are estimated to have entered the autonomous city illegally within the past week, and the number to have since been returned is heavily disputed.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 02:00

The Last Places Standing When The Sky Turns To Ash

Authored by Madge Waggy,

“We are standing at the precipice of something we cannot comprehend, and the silence from those who know is deafening. The mechanisms are already in motion, the chess pieces positioned with mathematical precision while the world sleeps. I have seen the projections. I have read the classified briefings that never reached your evening news. What comes next will not be war as your grandparents understood it - it will be something that rewrites the very definition of survival. The question is no longer if, but when. And when it happens, the concept of ‘safe’ will become the most precious commodity on Earth.” 

- Dr. Elias Vance, Former Strategic Analyst, NATO Defense College

The Last Sanctuaries Where Humanity Might Endure When the World Ends

The clock isn’t just ticking anymore... it’s screaming.

You feel it in your bones when you wake up at 3 AM, drenched in sweat, the residue of dreams you can’t quite remember but know involved running, always running. You see it in the way world leaders speak in coded language now, how the word “tactical” has replaced “nuclear” in press conferences, how the maps on television show arrows pointing toward borders that didn’t matter yesterday but suddenly matter more than your next breath. The architecture of global stability is cracking in places the architects never anticipated, and the rest of us are living in a house whose foundation has already turned to dust—we just haven’t felt the collapse yet.

But some of us are paying attention. Some of us have been watching the patterns long enough to recognize that history doesn’t repeat, as the cliché goes, but it rhymes with terrifying precision. The 1910s had their assassination in Sarajevo. The 2020s have their powder kegs scattered across multiple continents, each one guarded by fingers hovering over buttons that could reduce civilization to radioactive ash and memory. And when—not if, but when—those fingers finally press down, the world you know will vanish not with a bang that you hear, but with a silence that swallows everything you’ve ever loved.

This isn’t fear-mongering. This isn’t conspiracy theory dressed in journalism’s clothing. This is the mathematics of survival in an era where we’ve built machines capable of ending all life while simultaneously convincing ourselves that nobody would ever be irrational enough to use them. It’s the same delusion that preceded every catastrophe in human history—the unshakeable belief that tomorrow will look like today, until suddenly it doesn’t.

So let’s speak plainly about what comes after. Not the immediate horror, the blinding light and the shockwave that turns cities into memories, but the long, dark aftermath where survival becomes the only morality left.

Where do you go when the northern hemisphere becomes a graveyard of poisoned air and toxic rain? Where can you breathe when the jet stream carries death on its back, circling the globe like a vulture waiting for the last heartbeat? Where does humanity hide when the weapons we’ve spent eighty years perfecting finally sing their song of annihilation?

The answer lies in geography, in the accidents of tectonic plates and ocean currents that created pockets of isolation in a world that has otherwise grown terrifyingly small. These aren’t paradise destinations or luxury retreats—the rich have already bought their bunkers in New Zealand, carving out survivalist compounds that would make feudal lords jealous. No, these are places defined by their relationship to distance, by how far they sit from the crosshairs of nuclear targeting computers that don’t care about your dreams or your children’s names.

What follows is not a travel guide. It is a map of the possible, a cartography of the places where the human experiment might continue when the laboratories of civilization have burned down. Read it with the understanding that survival is never guaranteed, only slightly less impossible.

The Fortress at the Edge of the World: Milford Sound and the New Zealand Sanctuary

There is a reason the billionaires have been buying land here with the desperation of men who can read the writing on the wall. New Zealand sits at the absolute extremity of the habitable world, separated from Australia by the Tasman Sea—a body of water wide enough to function as a moat against the poisons that would sweep eastward from any nuclear exchange in the Northern Hemisphere. When the winds carry death across continents, New Zealand’s position in the roaring forties creates atmospheric circulation patterns that would delay, though not entirely prevent, the arrival of nuclear winter’s embrace.

The image you see above is Milford Sound, located deep within Fiordland National Park on New Zealand’s South Island. This is not a place that welcomes human habitation easily. The sheer cliffs rise vertically from waters that plunge to depths of 400 meters, creating a landscape that looks more like the imagination of a fever dream than geography that actually exists. The waterfalls that cascade down these granite walls—some dropping over 150 meters—would provide fresh water long after conventional sources become contaminated. The sound itself, technically a fjord carved by ancient glaciers, represents the kind of natural fortress that no army could penetrate and no fallout could easily reach.

The country’s isolation is its armor. Over 2,000 kilometers separate it from its nearest neighbor, a distance that becomes insurmountable when fuel supplies collapse and the global supply chains that feed the world become memories of abundance. But this isolation cuts both ways. New Zealand possesses something almost no other developed nation can claim: genuine agricultural self-sufficiency. Its dairy industry, its sheep stations stretching across landscapes that look like Middle Earth because they are, its capacity to feed a population many times its current size—these aren’t economic statistics. They are survival infrastructure disguised as farming.

The terrain itself offers protection. The Southern Alps create natural barriers against whatever contamination might drift southward, their peaks catching radioactive particles in ice and stone before they can reach the coastal plains where most of the population lives. The country’s geothermal activity in the North Island provides energy independence that doesn’t rely on fossil fuels that would become inaccessible or nuclear plants that might melt down when the technicians stop coming to work. And the water—God, the water—fed by glaciers and rainfall that originates in the cleanest skies left on Earth, carrying none of the industrial toxins that poison the aquifers of more “developed” nations.

But there’s a darkness here too, one that the survival guides don’t mention. New Zealand’s very attractiveness as a refuge means it will be overwhelmed when the exodus begins. The wealthy have already purchased citizenship through investment visas, carving out estates in Queenstown and the Wairarapa that will be defended by private security when the desperate arrive by boat. The Māori population, who have lived through one apocalypse already when European colonization arrived, understand better than anyone that the land remembers and protects its own—but there may not be enough land left to protect everyone who needs it.

The nuclear targeting maps, those classified documents that theorize which cities must be destroyed to cripple an enemy, barely acknowledge New Zealand’s existence. There are no missile silos here, no nuclear submarines prowling the harbors, no strategic bases that would warrant the expenditure of a warhead that could be used elsewhere. In the calculus of mutual assured destruction, New Zealand is a rounding error—and that mathematical insignificance might be the only thing that saves it.

When the ash falls and the sun disappears behind clouds of radioactive dust, New Zealand’s latitude means it will still receive enough solar radiation to grow crops when other regions enter permanent winter. Its location in the Southern Hemisphere places it opposite the primary nuclear targets of the north. The Coriolis effect, that invisible force that spins storms and distributes fallout, becomes a shield rather than a weapon. The same isolation that made New Zealand a laboratory for bizarre evolutionary experiments—the kiwi, the kakapo, the absence of mammals that allowed birds to rule—now makes it a laboratory for human survival.

But survival here won’t look like survival in the old world. The cities—Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch—would become death traps as refugees arrive by the hundreds of thousands, bringing with them the diseases and desperation that follow collapse. The real New Zealand, the one that might endure, exists in the small communities scattered along the coasts and valleys, places where people still know how to fish and farm and fix machinery without waiting for parts to arrive from overseas. The Māori concept of kaitiakitanga—guardianship of the land—takes on new meaning when the land is all you have left.

The billionaires in their bunkers will discover what the locals already know: New Zealand’s weather is capricious and cruel, its isolation absolute, and its beauty a mask for how quickly the elements can turn hostile. But when the alternative is the northern hemisphere’s nuclear winter, even a hostile paradise becomes sanctuary.

The Island That Shouldn’t Exist: Iceland’s Geological Fortress

Iceland shouldn’t exist, not as a place where humans can live. It sits astride the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, where the North American and Eurasian tectonic plates are slowly tearing apart, bleeding magma onto the surface in displays of geological violence that make human warfare look like children’s games. The photograph above captures Thingvellir National Park, where you can literally stand with one foot on each continent, watching the earth tear itself apart at a rate of two centimeters per year. The island is volcanic in the way that other places are rainy—it’s not a feature but the fundamental nature of the place. And yet, this violence creates the conditions for survival in a poisoned world.

The country’s energy independence is absolute in a way that no other nation can match. While the rest of the world relies on fossil fuels that would run out or nuclear plants that would melt down, Iceland draws 100% of its electricity and 90% of its heating from geothermal sources. The same volcanic activity that makes the ground shake provides hot water that flows through pipes beneath Reykjavik’s streets, heating homes without combustion, without supply chains, without the infrastructure that would collapse when the bombs fall. In a world where energy becomes life, Iceland has already solved the equation.

But it’s the water that matters most. Iceland’s aquifers are fed by glaciers that have been frozen since before humans invented war, water that filters through volcanic rock for decades before emerging as the purest liquid on Earth. When the rest of the world’s water sources become contaminated with fallout and industrial toxins, Iceland’s springs will still run clear. The country has already experienced what happens when the global system breaks down—during World War II, when Europe burned, Iceland’s isolation kept it safe even as it was occupied by Allied forces who recognized its strategic value as a staging ground.

That strategic value cuts both ways. Iceland sits between North America and Europe, a stepping stone across the Atlantic that has made it important in every major conflict of the last century. But in a nuclear war, its importance diminishes precisely because there’s nothing here worth destroying. No military bases that couldn’t be rebuilt elsewhere, no population centers large enough to matter in the calculus of civilian casualties, no industry that would cripple an enemy if removed. Iceland becomes valuable not as a target but as a void—a place where the missiles won’t fall because there’s no reason for them to fall there.

The darkness here is different from other places. Icelanders have lived with the knowledge that their island could erupt at any moment, that the ground beneath their feet is temporary in geological terms, that survival here has always been a negotiation with forces that don’t care about human plans. This psychology—the acceptance of impermanence, the preparation for catastrophe, the community bonds that form when you know your neighbor might be the only one who can dig you out when the volcano erupts—creates a population uniquely suited to endure what comes after.

The language itself reflects this reality. Icelandic has changed so little since the Viking age that modern Icelanders can read thousand-year-old sagas without translation, a continuity that represents more than linguistic curiosity. It is the preservation of knowledge across generations, the understanding that what matters isn’t the individual life but the continuation of the story. When the world ends, the Icelanders will still be telling their sagas, still remembering how their ancestors survived the dark winters of the past.

But the real survival value of Iceland lies in its fish. The surrounding waters are among the richest fishing grounds on Earth, feeding not just Iceland but Europe for centuries. When agriculture collapses in the poisoned lands of the continent, when the grain silos empty and the livestock die, the fish will still swim in the North Atlantic, indifferent to human catastrophe. The Icelandic fishing fleet, small enough to be maintained with local resources, large enough to feed a population many times its current size, becomes the ark that carries humanity through the flood.

The cold is the price you pay. Iceland’s winters are brutal in a way that southern climates cannot imagine, months of darkness where the sun barely crests the horizon and the wind carries knives of ice that cut through any clothing not specifically designed for the environment. But that same cold preserves food, prevents disease, keeps the desperate refugees who would overwhelm warmer climates away. Iceland’s harshness is its protection, its indifference to human comfort the very thing that makes it survivable when comfort becomes a memory.

The Continent at the End of the World: Antarctica’s Frozen Sanctuary

There is nowhere on Earth more hostile to human life than Antarctica, and that is precisely why it might be the safest place when the bombs fall. The image above shows McMurdo Station, the largest settlement on the continent, a collection of buildings that looks like it was dropped onto an alien planet—and in many ways, it was. Antarctica is not a place where humans evolved to live. It is a place where humans survive only through the massive importation of resources from the rest of the world, a dependency that seems to make it the worst possible refuge in a collapsed civilization.

But look closer at what the photograph reveals. The Dry Valleys visible in the background represent some of the only ice-free land on the continent, areas where the mountains are so high that they block the glaciers from flowing, creating deserts where it hasn’t rained in millions of years. These valleys contain microbes that survive in conditions that would kill anything else, life forms that have adapted to extreme cold, extreme dryness, extreme radiation. They are the closest analogues we have to what life might look like on Mars, and they suggest that survival is possible even in the most hostile environments imaginable.

Antarctica’s protection is absolute in ways that no other place can match. It is the only continent with no indigenous human population, no history of warfare, no borders to dispute because there is nothing here worth fighting over. The Antarctic Treaty System, signed in 1959, demilitarized the entire continent before the nuclear age reached its maturity, creating a space that is legally prohibited from hosting military installations or weapons of mass destruction. When the missiles fly, there are no targets here worth hitting, no cities to destroy, no infrastructure to cripple.

The ice itself becomes a shield. The Antarctic ice sheet, averaging over 2 kilometers thick, would absorb radiation that would kill surface dwellers elsewhere. The extreme cold would prevent the spread of diseases that would ravage warmer climates in the aftermath of collapse. The isolation, the distance from any population center that might produce refugees, the impossibility of reaching the continent without sophisticated transportation—all of these become assets rather than liabilities when the alternative is the radioactive wasteland of the north.

But the real value of Antarctica lies in what it represents rather than what it is. It is the proof that humans can survive in environments that evolution never prepared us for, that technology and community and sheer stubborn will can overcome conditions that should be fatal. The research stations that dot the coast—McMurdo, Palmer, the various national bases that maintain a continuous human presence—are experiments in closed-system survival that have been running for decades. The scientists who winter over, who spend months in darkness with the same small group of people, eating frozen food and breathing recycled air, are the unwitting pioneers of post-apocalyptic living.

The darkness is literal. During the Antarctic winter, the sun disappears completely for months, plunging the continent into a night that has driven people mad with its absolute blackness. But that same darkness preserves knowledge, prevents the degradation of materials that sunlight would destroy, creates conditions where preservation becomes possible on timescales that would be impossible elsewhere. When the world ends, the records stored in Antarctica—already designated as a place to preserve the seeds of civilization in the Svalbard model—might be the only records that survive.

The cold would kill most who tried to reach it. The journey across the Southern Ocean, the most violent body of water on Earth, has claimed thousands of lives even in times of peace and plenty. But for those who make it, who establish the foothold that could become a colony, Antarctica offers something no other place can: time. Time measured not in the frantic pulse of civilization but in the slow rhythm of ice, the patient accumulation of snow that will become the glaciers of future ages. Here, if nowhere else, the human story might continue long enough to outlast the consequences of its own madness.

The Spine of the World: Patagonia’s Mountain Sanctuary

The Andes Mountains run like a spine down the western edge of South America, and at their southern extremity, where the peaks meet the Southern Ocean, lies a region that might be the most defensible territory on Earth. The photograph above captures Torres del Paine National Park in Chilean Patagonia, granite towers that rise vertically from the Patagonian steppe, creating a landscape that looks designed by a deity with a taste for the dramatic. These mountains are not just beautiful; they are fortress walls that have never been breached by invading armies because no invading army has ever been foolish enough to try.

Patagonia’s safety lies in its geography of extremes. The Andes create a rain shadow that makes the eastern side of the mountains a desert while the western side receives some of the highest rainfall on Earth. The result is a region of microclimates where survival is possible even when conditions become impossible elsewhere. The mountains themselves contain glaciers that feed rivers running to both the Atlantic and Pacific, fresh water that would remain uncontaminated long after the aquifers of the north become poisoned.

The photograph shows the Torres del Paine themselves, three granite towers that rise over 2,500 meters above the surrounding landscape. These peaks are climbable only by the most experienced mountaineers, their faces sheer enough to repel any force that might try to scale them. The valleys between contain forests of lenga and ñire, southern beech trees that grow in conditions that would kill their northern cousins, providing timber and shelter in a region where both are scarce.

But the real protection of Patagonia is its emptiness. This is one of the least populated regions on Earth, with population densities measured in fractions of people per square kilometer. The towns—Puerto Natales, El Calafate, the scattered estancias that raise sheep on land too marginal for other agriculture—are small enough to be self-sufficient, large enough to maintain the skills and knowledge that collapse would destroy elsewhere. When the global system fails, these communities would barely notice, their isolation already complete, their dependence on the outside world already minimal.

The wind is the guardian here. Patagonian winds blow with a ferocity that has shaped the landscape and the people who live in it, bending trees into permanent angles, preventing the accumulation of snow that would bury other regions, scouring the air of contaminants that would linger elsewhere. The same wind that makes life difficult becomes the mechanism of survival, the natural ventilation system that keeps the atmosphere breathable when other places choke on their own pollution.

The darkness of Patagonia is the darkness of the end of the world. This is the southernmost habitable land on Earth before Antarctica, the place where the continents break apart into islands and the islands dissolve into the Southern Ocean. The indigenous peoples who lived here—the Tehuelche, the Selk’nam, the Kawésqar—were driven to extinction or marginalization by European colonization, their knowledge of survival in this harsh environment lost to the violence of “civilization.” Those who remain are the descendants of colonizers themselves, Welsh and German and Croatian immigrants who came seeking freedom from the oppression of the Old World and found instead a land that demands everything and forgives nothing.

But that harshness is the point. Patagonia doesn’t welcome you; it tests you. The weather changes with a violence that can kill the unprepared, the distances between settlements measured in days of travel rather than hours, the resources scarce enough that waste becomes impossible. These are the conditions that create survivors, that select for the traits—stubbornness, community, the willingness to endure discomfort—that would matter when the world ends. The people who live here have already survived the apocalypse of migration, of leaving everything familiar behind to build something new in a land that didn’t want them. They would survive the next apocalypse too.

The Bunker in the Mountains: Switzerland’s Fortress Democracy

Switzerland has been preparing for the end of the world since before the world had ends. The photograph above shows the Gotthard Military Fortress, a complex of tunnels and bunkers carved into the granite of the Swiss Alps, part of a defensive network that covers the entire country in a web of underground shelters capable of protecting the entire population. This is not paranoia; this is policy. Switzerland’s neutrality is not a moral stance but a military strategy, the recognition that survival in a world of great powers requires making invasion so costly that no potential aggressor would consider it worth the price.

The Gotthard fortress complex represents the culmination of this strategy. The mountains themselves have been hollowed out to create spaces where the Swiss military could continue fighting even if the surface was completely occupied by enemy forces. The tunnels connect to reservoirs of fresh water, to ammunition depots, to living quarters designed to sustain thousands of soldiers for months or years. When the bombs fall, the Swiss won’t be scrambling for shelter—they’ll be walking into spaces that have been waiting for this moment for generations.

But the military bunkers are only the most visible part of Switzerland’s survival infrastructure. Every building constructed since the 1960s is required to have a nuclear fallout shelter, spaces that would protect the civilian population from radiation, from blast, from the chaos that follows. There are enough of these shelters to protect the entire population of the country, a statistic that becomes meaningful when you realize that most nations have shelter space for less than one percent of their citizens. The Swiss don’t plan to survive as individuals; they plan to survive as a nation, as a culture, as a continuity of the experiment that began with their confederation in 1291.

The photograph reveals the aesthetic of this survival: concrete and steel blended into the natural landscape, the entrance to the fortress disguised as part of the mountain itself. This is the Swiss approach to apocalypse—not to run from it but to dig in, to make the cost of destruction higher than any potential benefit, to create a nation that is literally too difficult to destroy. The Alps provide the raw material for this strategy, granite mountains that have resisted erosion for millions of years and would resist nuclear fire with equal indifference.

The darkness here is the darkness of preparation, of a nation that has never been able to take its survival for granted. Switzerland’s wealth is recent, the product of banking secrecy and pharmaceutical innovation that transformed a poor mountain nation into one of the richest countries on Earth. But the psychology of insecurity remains, the memory of being surrounded by larger powers who could crush you if they chose, the knowledge that neutrality must be defended with weapons to have any meaning at all.

The food supply is part of this preparation. Switzerland maintains stockpiles of essential goods—grain, medicine, fuel—sufficient to sustain the population for months without any imports. When the global supply chains collapse, when the ships stop sailing and the trucks stop running, the Swiss will still have bread, still have medicine, still have the infrastructure that makes civilization possible. This is not accident; this is law, government policy that mandates the maintenance of reserves against exactly the catastrophe that now approaches.

But the real protection of Switzerland is its geography of inconvenience. The mountain passes that connect northern and southern Europe are narrow, easily defended, easily destroyed if defense fails. An invading army would have to fight for every kilometer of ground, would have to maintain supply lines through terrain that offers no forgiveness for error, would have to face a population that has been training for guerrilla warfare since childhood. The Swiss militia system requires every adult male to maintain military equipment in his home, to train regularly, to be prepared to mobilize within hours of a threat emerging. This is not a population that would collapse into chaos; this is a population that has been preparing for collapse for generations.

The bunkers would become cities when the surface became uninhabitable. The Swiss have thought through what comes after the bombs, the years of darkness and cold that would follow a nuclear exchange, the social structures that would need to be maintained when the old structures burned. They have planned for the end of the world with the same thoroughness they bring to watchmaking, the same precision that makes their trains run on time. And in that planning, they have created the possibility that their world—their specific, peculiar, mountain democracy—might survive when the larger world that surrounds it becomes ash.

The Geography of Survival

What connects these places is not their beauty, though they are beautiful. It is not their resources, though they have resources. It is their relationship to the networks of destruction that define modern civilization. Each of them sits at a node of isolation created by geography, by history, by the accidents of plate tectonics and ocean currents that placed them far from the centers of power that would become the primary targets of nuclear war.

The targeting computers don’t think in terms of survival; they think in terms of damage, of counterforce and countervalue, of silos and submarine bases and command centers. New Zealand doesn’t have these. Iceland doesn’t have these. Antarctica, Patagonia, Switzerland—their value lies precisely in their lack of value as targets, their exclusion from the calculus of destruction that would determine where the warheads fall. They are the negative space in the map of annihilation, the places defined by what they are not rather than what they are.

But this safety is temporary and conditional. Nuclear winter doesn’t respect borders; fallout travels on winds that don’t care about neutrality; the collapse of global agriculture would reach even the most self-sufficient nations eventually. The safety of these places is measured not in certainty but in probability, in the mathematics of delay and diminishment that might allow something human to survive long enough to rebuild.

The darkness that accompanies this knowledge is the darkness of selection, of the recognition that not everyone can reach these places, that the journey itself would kill most who attempted it, that the survivors would be those who had the resources and foresight to prepare before the crisis became obvious. This is not justice; this is not fairness; this is the brutal arithmetic of catastrophe that doesn’t care about your moral worth or your good intentions.

And yet, there is something hopeful in the mapping of these sanctuaries, in the recognition that the world is larger than our conflicts, that geography provides refuges that politics cannot destroy, that life persists in conditions that would seem impossible to those who have never tested the limits of survival. The mountains will remain when the cities fall. The ice will persist when the fires burn out. The ocean will continue its ancient circulation, indifferent to the temporary disruptions of human violence.

The question that remains is not whether these places can survive—they can, or at least they have better odds than anywhere else. The question is whether the survivors will be worth the name human, whether the qualities that allowed us to build the weapons will be the same qualities that allow us to survive their use, whether we can learn from the catastrophe or whether we are doomed to repeat it in some future age when the memory of the last apocalypse has faded into myth.

Dr. Vance’s warning, the one that began this exploration, was not a call to despair but a call to attention. The mechanisms are in motion, yes, but they can still be stopped. The chess pieces are positioned, but the game is not yet over. The places described here are not destinations but possibilities, not endpoints but reminders that survival is always possible for those who prepare, who pay attention, who refuse to let the darkness have the final word.

When the sirens sound—if they sound, when they sound—remember that the map of destruction is not the only map. There are other geographies, other ways of being in the world, other possibilities for survival that don’t depend on the continuation of the systems that created the danger. The mountains wait. The ice waits. The remote places at the edges of the world wait, as they have always waited, for those who can reach them and learn to live in the conditions that they demand.

The end of the world is not the end of everything. It is only the end of this world, this specific configuration of civilization that we have built and that now threatens to destroy us. What comes after—if anything comes after—depends on who survives and what they carry with them into the darkness. The places described here are the places where the carrying might be possible, where the seeds of whatever comes next might find soil deep enough to take root.

Choose wisely. Prepare quietly. And remember that the maps we make before the catastrophe are the maps that will guide us through it, if we have the wisdom to read them and the courage to follow where they lead.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 23:25

Oil Markets Price In An Iran Deal That Does Not Exist Yet

Oil prices tumbled Tuesday as traders once again priced in a U.S.-Iran agreement before anyone had actually signed one.

West Texas Intermediate was trading at $75.64 per barrel shortly before 2 p.m. ET, down $4.70, or 5.85%, while Brent had fallen $4.61 to $79.16. Both benchmarks touched three-week lows as hopes rose that an agreement could reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

As reported earlier, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a deal could come Tuesday or Wednesday, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio said talks involving Iran and Oman had made progress. Qatar also said diplomatic efforts were continuing. President Donald Trump went further, calling an agreement to reopen the strait and denuclearize Iran “imminent.”

Iran, naturally, offered a less tidy version. As OilPrice notes, Tehran has denied holding direct talks with Washington and says it is negotiating through mediators in Oman. Iran is also seeking control over inbound shipping and visibility over outbound traffic, with the ability to intervene when it sees fit.

US and Iran are finalizing a 60-day interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with an announcement expected tomorrow – Axios.

Under the proposed deal:

• Ships entering the Gulf would use the northern lane through Iranian waters.

• Ships leaving the Gulf for the… pic.twitter.com/IcrptBohbu

— Current Report (@Currentreport1) August 5, 2026

Actual shipping data offered little support for Tuesday’s enthusiasm. Just six vessels were tracked moving through Hormuz on Monday, down from seven a day earlier, while traffic through Bab el-Mandeb was also largely unchanged. A cargo vessel was also struck near Oman, adding another complication to the negotiations.

Before the war, roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas supply moved through Hormuz. Persian Gulf producers have since been forced to slash output, and Saudi Aramco estimates the world has lost more than 2.6 billion barrels since fighting began in February.

Goldman Sachs expects Brent to remain between $80 and $90 until there is either a confirmed agreement or another major escalation. Brent was already below that range Tuesday afternoon, suggesting traders may have gotten a little ahead of the diplomats.

Oil has spent months whipping between peace headlines and missile strikes while physical flows remain badly impaired.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 23:17

Socialist Wisconsin Gov Candidate Won't Back Down After Calling To "Cancel Thanksgiving"

Far-left Wisconsin gubernatorial contender Francesca Hong appeared to double down on resurfaced comments demanding that Thanksgiving be abolished, declining to walk back the post when confronted about it on national television.

"Cancel Thanksgiving. Should have done this in 1621," Hong wrote on X in a post she later deleted, according to Fox News.

"If it takes a worldwide pandemic for us to realize we should stop celebrating colonialism and the original superspreader event that killed indigenous folx [sic] and women, so be it," she added.

On Monday, Hong appeared on CNN's "The Source with Kaitlan Collins," where the Democratic socialist was pressed about her controversial comments.

"Do you still believe that Thanksgiving should be canceled?" Collins asked.

Rather than answer directly, Hong clumsily pivoted to her resume.

CNN: “Do you still believe Thanksgiving should be canceled?”

Francesca Hong: “I'm a chef, one of the first meals I made for the community was a Thanksgiving meal. But Thanksgiving is also an incredibly painful time for many people in our communities.” pic.twitter.com/R4PVClfGu2

— TheBlaze (@theblaze) August 4, 2026

"I'm a chef, and one of the first meals that I made that was for the community when I was 16 [years old] was a Thanksgiving meal," Hong said. "I always think my hospitality background in owning a restaurant for seven, eight years, that bringing folks around the table to share conversation and build community is always a good thing."

"But Thanksgiving is also a time that's incredibly painful for many people in our communities," Hong continued. "And so I think there, I wanted to make sure that people understood that there are multiple views, but views can evolve."

"And the position that I'm running for right now, and I think my background as a chef will actually help me become a better governor that's able to bring more people to the table," she added.

The refusal to back down comes as Hong sits atop the Democrat primary field. A Marquette University Law School Poll conducted July 22 to 27 surveyed 407 Democrat primary voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 6.6%.

Hong led the field with 38%, followed by Mandela Barnes, who has since dropped out of the race, at 16%, David Crowley at 7%, and Joel Brennan and Kelda Roys at 2% apiece, with 34% of voters still undecided. When undecided voters who lean toward a candidate are counted, Hong climbs to 46%, Barnes to 21% and Crowley to 11%.

Oh and she also hates white people. 

Anti-white Frannie Frowner also said she was also relieved her son looked more like his white father than her pic.twitter.com/fsWgwwooTk

— Wuhan Fourth Turning Swan (@TheWuhanClan) August 3, 2026 Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 22:10

Florida's Ban On Children Attending Drag Shows Is Constitutional, Appeals Court Says

Authored by Troy Myers via The Epoch Times,

A federal appeals court says Florida’s ban on children attending sexualized drag shows is constitutional. On Tuesday, the court overturned a lower court’s decision that had blocked the state’s law.

Hamburger Mary’s, a bar and restaurant chain that holds drag shows and previously held what it called “family friendly” performances for children on Sundays, sued the state over the ban. The chain claimed its law was unconstitutional, but judges on the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals disagreed in an 8–5 ruling.

Judge Andrew Brasher, writing on behalf of the majority opinion, said, “We are convinced the district court erred” for two reasons.

“First, the district court lacked authority to impose a universal injunction that prevented the enforcement of the Act,” Brasher said.

“Second, Hamburger Mary’s was not entitled to even a more limited preliminary injunction to prevent the enforcement of the Act because its claims do not have a substantial likelihood of success on the merits.”

Lawyers for Hamburger Mary’s did not respond to a request for comment.

The restaurant claimed Florida’s 2023 Protection of Children Act violated the First Amendment’s protection of free speech.

The law would make it a misdemeanor for businesses to knowingly allow a child to an “adult live performance” that “depicts or simulates nudity, sexual conduct, sexual excitement, or specific sexual activities.”

The act further identified prohibited adult live performances as those that “predominantly appeal to a prurient, shameful, or morbid interest” and “taken as a whole, [are] without serious literary, artistic, political, or scientific value for the age of the child present.”

Businesses in violation of the Protection of Children Act could face suspension or loss of license as well as a $5,000 fine for a first offense and a $10,000 fine for each subsequent offense.

A district court previously sided with Hamburger Mary’s, granting a preliminary injunction that blocked enforcement of the law and applied it to all venues in the state.

Gov. Ron DeSantis petitioned for the U.S. Supreme Court to halt the injunction, but the justices refused.

“This shouldn’t even be controversial, yet our law protecting kids required us to fend off lawsuits and win a case before a divided appellate court,” DeSantis wrote in a post on X after the appeals court’s Tuesday ruling.

A three judge-panel for the 11th Circuit also sided with the restaurant in a 2–1 ruling last year, upholding the injunction. Writing for the majority in the three-judge panel’s decision in May 2025, Judge Robin Rosenbaum said the act “wields a shotgun when the First Amendment allows a scalpel at most.”

But the court granted a re-hearing en banc, meaning all the judges on the 11th Circuit could consider the district court’s injunction and the Florida law’s constitutionality, and issued its 8–5 ruling affirming the legislation.

“There is no doubt the Act is rational. We will not second-guess the Florida Legislature’s decision to regulate obscenity,” Brasher said in the majority opinion. “Preventing children from attending adult live performances obscene for them is rationally related to Florida’s interest in safeguarding the well-being of minors.”

Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier praised the 11th Circuit’s decision, calling it a “huge victory.”

Judges writing in dissent of Tuesday’s decision gave sharp criticisms of the majority’s ruling, accusing the state of giving no assistance to businesses of what is age appropriate for a child.

Hamburger Mary’s, with no guidance, faces jail time, thousands of dollars in fines, and loss of its license if it guesses the standards of Florida’s law incorrectly, Rosenbaum said in dissent.

“As it turns out, chilling all drag performances when those under the age of eighteen are present appears to be the point,” she said. “In other words, Florida purposely created a mess-around-and-find-out statute to chill drag.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 21:45

Physical AI Faces One Critical Chokepoint, And Here's How To Profit

The rise of physical AI is already underway, with humanoid robots entering factories, warehouses, and other industrial environments, and soon the modern battlefield. 

Global shipments of humanoid robots are expected to accelerate in 2027, but the broader robotics revolution faces one critical chokepoint: access to the rare-earth magnets that power high-performance motors and actuators. China controls most of that supply chain.

Bernstein analyst Dien Wang told clients Monday that humanoid robots require an estimated 3.5 to 4 kilograms of rare-earth magnets per unit, compared with roughly 1 to 3 kilograms for an EV motor.

"A humanoid robot can consume more than twice as much magnetic material as an EV motor (Exhibit 3), highlighting the growing strategic importance of rare-earth magnets. Beyond well-known neodymium (Nd) and samarium (Sm), rare-earth elements such as dysprosium (Dy), terbium (Tb), and praseodymium (Pr) are also critical for magnetic performance (Exhibit 4, Exhibit 5). We therefore see the entire rare-earth magnet value chain as strategically important," Wang said.

Rare-earth magnets (NdFeB) are composed of multiple raw materials, including various rare-earth elements.

The magnets provide the torque density, compact size, and heat resistance needed for high-performance motors and robotic actuators.

Wang outlined that China's dominance in rare-earth magnets is troubling in an "increasingly multipolar world." He said there are only three conclusions to draw from this:

1. Chinese EV (e.g. BYD) and humanoid OEMs could benefit from an improved competitive position overseas.
2. Chinese robotic actuator (e.g. Tuopu, Sanhua) and EV-motor suppliers (e.g. Inovance) could gain share globally, as rival supply chains remain more vulnerable to rare-earth magnet disruptions.
3. Non-Chinese rare-earth magnet players (Exhibit 17) could benefit from growing requests for supply-chain diversification.

Rare-earth magnet value chain spans a series of technically demanding stages

China controls about 59% of global magnet rare-earth mining, 91% of refining and 94% of magnet manufacturing, according to the analyst.

The International Energy Agency expects China to retain more than half of mining and over 75% of refining through 2040, while recycling is unlikely to meaningfully reduce near-term supply risks.

Beijing has weaponized its dominance of rare earths as a geopolitical tool against the US. China imposed controls on seven medium and heavy rare-earth products in 2025, extended licensing requirements to some overseas transactions, and restricted exports to dozens of US, European, and Japanese companies.

Those 2025 measures caused an immediate, though temporary, collapse in Chinese magnet exports.

China/Asia Production of NdFeB magnets

Comparing with the US and Europe...

Here's how to profit across the entire magnet supply chain ex-China:

"As Physical AI emerges as a strategic battleground among leading nations, control of critical chokepoints could ultimately determine who gains the upper hand," Wang noted.

China may already hold a structural advantage in humanoid robot development, supported by its massive manufacturing ecosystem and dominance of the rare-earth supply chain. On Monday, Hugging Face's CEO told CNBC that China is winning the AI race and increasingly dominating open-source models. Taken together, these signals suggest the West's lead in AI might be eroding against China.

Professional subscribers can read more color on humanoid robots here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 21:20