Zero Rss

The Democratic Party's Four-Way Squeeze

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

“. . . it’s subversion and nothing about it is accidental. it’s a well worn playbook to use the democratic institutions of a high trust state to destroy a civilization.” 

- El Gato Malo on Substack

The days might still be long, but this is a dark season in our country’s politics. Everybody’s nervous and many are furious, and yet all that emotion goes nowhere, just eats you up while you watch and wait for signs that help is on the way. What would that help even look like? Maybe a concerted effort to bum-rush a whole lot of bad ideas out of American life and replace them with better ideas that are worth building a life around.

Of the two political parties that used to vie between the interests of property and of labor, there is almost nothing left — nothing coherent, anyway.

Mr. Trump & Co. still stand outside a feckless Republican establishment that can only say “no.” That is bad enough, when it comes to vital matters like election reform and sound fiscal policy. But the President is methodically wearing them down with tactical work-arounds such as this week’s use of State Department visa control to prevent foreign visitors coming here just to drop birthright citizens.

Things will get super-serious when the president has to manage the government’s functional bankruptcy, the bond market crack-up under our impossible debt-burden, and all its knock-ons. It’s coming for sure, and will require a stringent reorganization of American finance, probably even of our money itself. That will be a moment when the nation understands what leadership really means, not just endless deception and fakery.

Speaking of which, you have the other party, the Democrats.

The Dems, unmoored from the interests of labor (whatever is left of it), are now strictly just the party of bad ideas and crime.

One way, or another, we’re gonna find you, we’re gonna gitchya gitchya gitchya. . . .

The party is also, at this juncture of history, caught in a gruesome four-way squeeze that could easily drag it into extinction. Let’s count them.

First, is the basic basket of ideas that comprise the party’s platform, readily identifiable for some years now as the “Woke” catalog. Virtually all of them are ideas that a majority of the public rejects as insane. A wide-open border. We tried that for four years under the fake president “Joe Biden.” Didn’t work out so well. Added many millions to the free everything dole that actual citizens resentfully have to pay for. Took jobs away from said citizens. Got a lot of (mostly) women murdered and raped. Let in Gawd knows how many foreign terrorists.

“Woke” also includes the DEI products of manufactured race animus and gender confusion, especially as applied in school from K all the way to PhD. Apart from the sheer hatred and idiocy these things generated, they also led to the scrapping of merit and excellence as organizing principles for civilization. Americans increasingly reject all of that.

The second squeeze point is the Democratic Party’s criminal portfolio. The Covid-19 operation was basically theirs. It killed and injured millions, wrecked the integrity of medicine, and brought on the deliberate perversion of our election procedure. It gave us fake President “Biden” and the autopen gang that ran him. Along the way, the party weaponized the law and produced one hoax after another: RussiaGate, Impeachment, J-6, the 2024 Trump trials — treason, sedition, deprivation of rights under color of law, obstruction of justice and much more. These crimes are a huge burden for the party and they are in the process of being adjudicated, and a lot of the party’s heroes will end up in prison.

The third squeeze is the party’s widespread and atrocious racketeering operation. The process of uncovering it has been going on since Jan 20, 2025, but still has a long way to go in terms of courtroom action. The Somali Learing Center in Minnesota, fake hospices by the hundreds in California, Medicaid fraud in state after state. It was generally allowed to go on by state officialdom. We await the eventual indictments of Governor Tim Walz, Gavin Newsom, JB Pritzker, Janet Mills and many other Democratic politicians.

The Democratic Party racketeering apparatus also included the money-laundering system that kicked back millions of dollars from a matrix of NGOs that washed taxpayer money into the party coffers. USAID was a major mechanism, and has been mostly shut down, but thousands of NGOs still exist and function as employment centers for young party “activists” who otherwise would have to work the espresso machines. A lot of that activism depends on funding from the likes of George Soros, the Tides Foundation, Bill Gates, Neville Roy Singham, and other criminally-tinged philanthropy outfits. Justice is coming for them now, too.

Which redounds directly to the fourth squeeze: the rise of communism and jihad as the Party’s new rallying cries while the other three squeezes work to put the party’s old guard out of business. Communism is the fad-du-jour among Democratic Party youth because the over-production of elites (i.e., college graduates) are increasingly closed out of cushy jobs in the besieged NGO matrix, threatened further by the advent of artificial intelligence, and have been trained-up by the lefty-left college faculties to fall in love with the utopian nostrums of Karl Marx.

Communism is the Party’s last resort and most of America will not buy it, no matter how heartfelt the youth faction appears these days. Americans believe in property rights. They want to own things. They don’t really enjoy being pushed around by kommissars. They want to keep Thanksgiving and Christmas.

As for jihad, it’s hard to imagine a less likely route to the hearts and minds of America. No matter how pissed off you are about Israel, jihad is not the answer to America’s problems. No, Dorothy, Kansas will not be joining the Ummah. You will not have to don the burka. Sharia will not replace English common-law. This is a hill that somebody’s going to die on, and in America it’s not going to be Americans.

Personally, I don’t see how the Democratic Party as currently configured survives this four-way squeeze. If President Trump can succeed in starting to reindustrialize the country — even considering A-I and robots — there will still be a need for human labor and labor will seek some kind of political representation. Maybe they can find it in the hollowed out husk of the thing that used to be the Democratic Party. Otherwise, fuggeddabowdit. The party is toast.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 16:20

Vance: Federal Government Has Identified $230 Billion In Fraud Since March

Authored by Emel Akan via The Epoch Times,

Vice President JD Vance said on Aug. 5 that the Trump administration has identified $230 billion in fraud and prevented $56 billion in fraudulent payments since the president’s Fraud Task Force was established in March.

Vance discussed the task force’s initiatives at a roundtable in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building attended by more than a dozen Republican lawmakers. He said the work by the task force so far is starting to show results.

“We have been able to identify $230 billion of fraud just since the Fraud Task Force was set up, and that’s frankly by conservatively estimating it,” Vance said.

He urged Congress to codify certain anti-fraud actions taken by the administration to ensure that they remain in effect under future administrations.

“This effort will fundamentally always have a limitation unless our colleagues in the House and the Senate are working with us,” Vance said.

“We don’t want the next administration ... to undo all the incredible work that we’ve been doing.”

The vice president said one of the first steps Congress can take is to force data sharing between state and federal governments to crack down on fraud.

He said that if a state gives food stamp benefits to an illegal immigrant or a violent criminal, the federal government often cannot detect who is receiving those benefits.

The vice president also called on Congress to make fraud harder to commit and to ensure that convicted fraudsters receive longer prison sentences that better reflect the seriousness of their crimes.

On March 16, President Donald Trump signed an executive order to establish a task force after large-scale fraud in Minnesota’s Medicaid and federal assistance programs drew national attention late last year. He then appointed Vance to lead the new task force while also creating a fraud-focused division in the Justice Department.

Speaking at the event, Federal Trade Commission Chairman Andrew Ferguson, who co-chairs the task force, said that fraudsters target federal assistance programs because they are relatively easy to exploit. He said one reason is that “the punishments associated with much of the fraud are relatively low.”

Hence, the administration wants to work with Congress to significantly increase sentences for all levels of fraud, he said, to deter potential fraudsters from targeting these programs.

On Aug. 4, authorities announced that 19 people have been charged with Medicaid fraud for allegedly submitting more than $4 million in false home care bills. The investigation was a joint effort by several federal and state law enforcement agencies.

The White House on Aug. 6 announced that it has launched a new website to track the administration’s moves to eliminate alleged fraud, waste, and abuse in government agencies.

“Each partner agency reported three figures” to the task force led by Vance, the site states, noting that the “fraud uncovered” section on the site “represents total estimated fraud identified through data analysis” while the “fraud stopped” portion “counts the dollars saved annually through administrative actions such as provider suspensions and rule changes.”

Vance said in a recent interview with Fox News:

“I don’t care where you came from, I don’t care what your name is. If you are committing fraud against the American people, all of us in public leadership should ... try to throw you in prison for enriching yourself off the American taxpayer.”

A similar initiative was established under the now-defunct Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which was associated with Tesla CEO Elon Musk and which was wound down by July 2026. DOGE’s website also included contracts, leases, and other items that were targeted for elimination by the Trump administration.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 15:45

Consumer Credit Jumps More Than Expected In June As Credit Card Debt Spikes

One month after the May consumer credit posting a shocking decline - the first since late 2024 - driven by a plunge in revolving credit, things are mostly back to normal, with the Fed reporting in its latest G.19 report that in June, US consumer credit posted a healthy $14.17BN bounce - a full reversal of the May drop of $1.1 billion - and above the $11.9 billion median estimate. 

The rebound was driven by a sizable reversal in last month's drop in revolving credit (i.e., credit card debt), as consumer resumed buying on credit to the tune of $6.7BN...

... bringing the total amount of outstanding credit card debt to $1.351 trillion, just $1 billion away from the all time high set in October 2024.

Meanwhile, non-revolving credit rose by its slow and steady monthly pace of $7.4 billion, lifting the total amount of student and auto loans to a new record high of $3.816 trillion.

What is interesting, is that while auto loans have barely budged since late 2023, staying around 1.6 trillion for nearly three years, and hitting a record $1.571 trillion at the end of June, student loans have resumed their ascent, and after a modest decline in late 2023, student loans are once again at all time highs although in June we saw a tiny decline of $4.5 billion.

Finally for those keeping tabs, after a modest decline in the previous two quarter, the average interest rate on credit card accounts assessed interest rose to 22.15%...

... a level last seen three years ago, when the Fed rates was almost 2% higher, which confirms our long-running observation that credit card rates go up but they never go down.

One final observation: after a period of about 6 years when the average amount financed by auto loans was around $25,000 (from 2008 to 2014), this amount has grown dramatically, and in Q1 2026 it hit a new record high of $42,500, the highest on record. Just in case there was confusion what is behind the relentless increase in car prices...

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 15:32

Senate Passes The Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia & Iran Act Of 2026

On Friday the Senate finally passed a bill imposing major new sanctions on Russia due to the grinding war which has been going since February 2022.

The bill had bipartisan support, with a vote of 86 to 11, and now it will go to the House - where it is expected to be passed there too. After a year of negotiations and holdups based largely on prior White House pushback, the 'breakthrough' is largely the result of the death of Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina.

The bill is called literally the The Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 - which aptly reveals the late senator's hawkish stance on all 'official enemies'.

In places he couldn't start a war, he would certainly at least advocate for hard-hitting sanctions, which technically is itself an act of war. In many ways Graham continued with the mantle of John McCain - who never saw a conflict he didn't want to rush American forces into.

The newly Senate-passed sanctions act "allows the president to impose tariffs of up to 100% on the top five purchasers of Russian oil or natural gas." There are some crucial caveats:

There are exceptions for countries that import less than 15% of their natural gas from Russia and are taking "significant" steps to reduce the imports. It also includes sanctions on Russian President Vladimir Putin, officials within his government, oligarchs and Russian banks and financial institutions. 

It remains that China and India are the largest buyers of Russian crude oil, but there are also still some EU countries which have remained under pressure to cut their Russian imports significantly.

The sanctions also extend Washington's ongoing economic warfare on Iran's energy and weapons sectors, which was an expected part of the legislation. 

Proud 2 support Sen passage of Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia Act in BIG bipart vote 86-11 This bill holds Putin accountable for largest land war in Europe since WWII+ protects our natl security

It wldnt hv been possible w/o the work of our late colleague Lindsey Graham

— Chuck Grassley (@ChuckGrassley) August 7, 2026

Sen. Graham had actually spent spent years trying to finally advance it across the finish line, but the Trump administration had initially entered the White House loudly pushing diplomacy with Moscow and the idea that a swift end to the over four-year long war could be achieved by Trump's direct mediation and negotiating prowess. The policy reached an apex with the Trump-Putin Alaska summit, but failed to take off from there.

Instead, the world is currently witnessing the war's biggest escalatory phase in years, especially given the nightly major Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy sites and infrastructure. Russia's aerial bombardment of Ukrainian cities, including on the capital, has in turn stepped up.

Trump on Lindsey Graham: "I wanted to see the war with Ukraine end very quickly. I think he was more into, you know, keeping it going, frankly."

Trump on Lindsey Graham:

I wanted to see the war with Ukraine end very quickly. I think he was more into, you know, keeping it going, frankly.pic.twitter.com/sjHCNcMsZn

— Clash Report (@clashreport) July 12, 2026

Pro-Ukraine hawks have been salivating and waiting for this moment, and again lawmakers have been bipartisan on this. For example, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), the ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, previously announced that passing the bill would serve as a "fitting memorial" to Graham and everything he represented.

"There can be no more fitting memorial to Lindsey, his legacy, or the causes he fought for, than to pass this legislation and realize his long-held dream of an independent and secure Ukraine," she said.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 15:00

Uncertainty Rules!

By Elwin de Groot, head of macro strategy at Rabobank

US Treasury yields drifted higher yesterday after the Financial Times reported, citing people close to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, that he would be prepared to raise rates as early as September if incoming inflation data surprise to the upside and markets themselves begin pricing a more hawkish path. Yet the market reaction was not confined to the front end suggesting investors were not interpreting the story in a straightforwardly hawkish manner.

That ambiguity is understandable. If markets push yields higher on expectations of tighter policy, the Fed may feel less need to deliver that tightening. Note also that Warsh himself was not speaking, and one of his recurring themes has been a dislike of explicit forward guidance. Moreover, September remains some distance away in market time, particularly in an environment where geopolitical developments can overturn macro narratives overnight.

Indeed, whilst oil prices had come down in the early part of this week on the back of renewed signs that the Strait of Hormuz could gradually reopen, those same prices rose again overnight as a convincing agreement remains elusive as it offers no permanent solutions for the key sticking points. Instead, it offers another 60-day window of free transits through Hormuz while further negotiations resume. Reports suggest Iran is looking to restrict US and Israeli ships from the Strait and it’s been ear-deafening silent on the ‘nuclear’ issue, for example. If a deal is agreed, it could be a matter of time until either party expresses frustration with the negotiations again and markets are forced to price in another few weeks of geopolitical tension.

Meanwhile, refined products are feeling the pinch of impending shortages, leading us to revise up sharply our forecasts for diesel, gasoil and marine fuels, as our senior energy analyst Joe DeLaura writes. In Europe, it is the winter-demand pressure that hangs over the market. The underpriced risk is that Europe’s own weather stress raises gas burn through the power sector just as LNG supply risks remain elevated, our senior energy analyst Florence Schmitt writes.

European macro data offered little inspiration yesterday. German factory orders surprised to the upside in June, though largely thanks to volatile big-ticket orders. This morning saw industrial production tick 0.2% m/m higher that month, but this was offset by lower growth in the previous month. Elsewhere, the picture was even less encouraging. Industrial production fell in both Spain and Italy, raising the possibility that the eurozone's preliminary 0.4% q/q GDP growth estimate may yet be revised lower. Eurozone retail sales also disappointed, falling 0.3% m/m in June and largely offsetting May's upwardly revised increase. The broader message is that growth concerns are unlikely to disappear simply because oil prices have eased from their recent highs.

In fact, what increasingly defines the global economy is not any single shock, but the relentless arrival of new ones. Businesses and households are being bombarded (in some regions rather literally) by an overlapping set of disruptions: trade disputes, geopolitical conflict, policy uncertainty, financial market volatility, technological disruption and natural disasters. The first eight months of 2026 have already provided a year's worth of such events.

The obvious example is the Middle East conflict and the disruption of shipping through Hormuz. But it is far from the only one. Investors continue to grapple with uncertainty surrounding the US tariff regime, while questions persist over the sustainability of the AI investment boom and the valuations attached to it. A rising string of hacking reports and AI models behaving unexpectedly has raised concerns over AI’s controllability.

In Europe, concerns are mounting over intensifying Chinese competition and the growing economic costs of climate change. Scorching temperatures, drying rivers and devastating wildfires have already become defining features of this summer. Looking ahead, forecasters are increasingly focused on the emergence of a potential "super El Niño" event, which could amplify weather-related disruptions across a wide range of emerging and developed economies.

Yet uncertainty is more than merely a transmission channel for shocks. It is an economic force in its own right.

Franklin D. Roosevelt famously captured this during the depths of the Great Depression when he declared in his first inaugural address that "the only thing we have to fear is fear itself". Nearly a century later, the insight remains remarkably relevant. Uncertainty can paralyze decision-making, delay investment, encourage precautionary saving and ultimately amplify the effects of whatever shock triggered it in the first place.

An interesting ECB study published in its latest Economic Bulletin broadly confirms the point. Looking at the eurozone, the analysis finds that uncertainty shocks tend to reduce investment, particularly spending on tangible capital, as well as consumer purchases of durable goods. The effects are most visible during the first two to four quarters following the shock. Importantly, however, the impact appears largely transitory. After an initial decline, activity tends to recover and the long-run effect on output is limited.

Part of that result may reflect modelling choices. But there is also an intuitive economic explanation: people learn. Households, businesses and investors gradually adapt to recurring shocks. The unfamiliar becomes familiar. What initially causes panic eventually becomes incorporated into decision-making. That observation brings us back to a theme from our Monthly Outlook, Groundhog Day Economics: markets seem to become more accustomed to geopolitical disruptions, yet every recurring script carries the risk of a very different ending.

Interestingly, the same logic may apply in reverse. As our colleague Stefan Koopman argues here, UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham may seek to replace "securonomics" with a form of "vibonomics": generating a series of positive confidence shocks before embarking on more politically difficult structural reforms. The idea is simple enough. If uncertainty depresses activity, improved confidence can temporarily support it.

The key word, however, is temporarily. The lesson from both the ECB's research and recent market experience is that confidence effects can move demand forward in time, but they do not permanently raise an economy's growth potential. Lower precautionary savings may provide a one-off boost to spending. Positive sentiment may temporarily lift GDP. But neither changes the underlying supply capacity of an economy.

Ultimately, uncertainty may rule the headlines, and confidence may shape the near-term cycle. But lasting prosperity still depends on a far less fashionable ingredient: stronger supply-side growth.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 14:40

Exit Narrative Grows: Bessent Says New Deal & Ceasefire Will Open Hormuz 'Today Or Tomorrow' Summary

• Bessent: Hormuz could reopen under a 30-60 day ceasefire as soon as "today or tomorrow."
• Iran asserts that US & Israeli vessels remain barred until sanctions are lifted and compensation is paid.
• Trump says the conflict could "end pretty soon," signaling a possible final US exit.
• Iran remains defiant, pointing out it still has the leverage & can threaten Hormuz.
• However, the deal could reopen oil flows while strengthening Iran's control over the strait.

//--> //--> //--> Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Yes 13% · No 88%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Bessent: Today or Tomorrow the Strait will be Open; Iran Signals 'Compensation'

Iran has announced that under the 'finalized' Oman-Iran scheme and 'deal' for management of the Hormuz Strait that "enemy countries" (read: US and Israel) may only transit the waterway after lifting sanctions and paying compensation for the war.

While this was not issued by the Foreign Ministry or top leadership per se, it does appear to represent Tehran's overall position, after on Thursday it first declared that US and Israeli-linked ships will not be allowed Hormuz transit under the Oman plan:

Tehran Mayor says Passing through the Strait of Hormuz is subject to the lifting of sanctions and the payment of compensation:

"The countries that have attacked Iran will not have the right to use this strait until compensation is paid. Governments that freeze Iranian assets or continue to impose sanctions and threaten the nation will be deprived of this strategic boon."

While Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has appeared to back the Omani plan to reopen the strait, the US State Department has also newly warned on Friday that more 'decisive action' will be taken to cut off sources of Iran's funding. Bessent has newly stated that...

I think shortly, maybe even today, tomorrow, we are going to see an agreement, a 30- to 60-day ceasefire, and the Strait will be open.

This is somewhat surprising, but as we described below, it seems a final Washington exit is indeed in motion, even if it leaves Iran with greater leverage in the region. Like Trump's latest comments Thursday night, Bessent seems in 'mission accomplished' mode with this newly published interview...

Bessent on Iran:

We have them by the throat, and they've got 150–180% food inflation, not able to pay the troops.

I think shortly, maybe even today, tomorrow, we are going to see an agreement, a 30- to 60-day ceasefire, and the Strait will be open.

Energy prices should come… pic.twitter.com/C1vGuQUIRM

— Clash Report (@clashreport) August 7, 2026

This really does sound like 'it's finally over' talk...

Bessent on the Strait of Hormuz:

The strait is never going back to the way it was because the Iranians have used, or tried to use it, as a choke point.

What we are going to see over the next two years, the strait is going to become irrelevant.

It is going to become just… pic.twitter.com/LP8evMbeJP

— Clash Report (@clashreport) August 7, 2026 White House Largely Quiet on Iran-Oman Deal to Manage the Strait

President Trump's latest Iran comments came Thursday night, after a prior day wherein Iran and Oman unveiled their 'finalized' Hormuz management scheme, which most notably includes a ban on all US and Israeli vessels in the energy transit waterway. 

As we reviewed earlier, the White House has appeared to genuinely be searching for an exit strategy, but this stipulation alone may be too hard a pill for Trump to swallow, if accurate - given that it obviously leaves Iran in de facto control of the strait. Many pundits have pointed out it even leaves Iran with more leverage and power in the region than before the launch of Operation Epic Fury.

But this is why Trump's comments to reporters in the Oval Office Thursday evening are surprising, given that instead of reacting angrily and outright condemning the Iran-Oman plan, his reaction was somewhat muted and meager. Doves who see this war as disastrous and hope for quick exit will welcome the development.

via Reuters Trump: Going to End Pretty Soon

"I think it's going to end pretty soon. I don’t think they can go much longer," the president said, while leaving his meaning ambiguous. Asserting once again that the US is involved in negotiations with Tehran (something the Iranians have been vehemently denying all along), Trump added that "I think we’re doing fine."

The only thing Trump truly got angry about Thursday was related to the domestic side of the conflict, after US major media published several reports saying the Pentagon is perilously low on missiles and interceptors, which have been drained after nearly six months of war. He blasted 'treasonous' 'fake reporting' and even threatened to jail 'leakers' over the reports (the inherent contradiction says a lot here).

But again, Trump's penchant for raging against 'dishonest' and 'evil' Iranian leaders has been curiously absent over the last several days as the US bombs have fallen silent - after he called off planned 'harder' strikes over the weekend (or the last big TACO moment, among many prior).

This relative quiet at the White House comes even after Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf openly mocked the United States and Trump's theatrics and constant changes of course on X. He wrote Thursday:

"Massive attack coming… wait, never mind, they want to negotiate." That’s theater diplomacy on loop. Using bullying + broken promises + fake news as leverage is a failed strategy. Acknowledge the facts and fulfill your commitments. We don’t need more theater.

All of this change in Washington tone and posture suggests this could finally be the moment for a true offramp, as the US faces a 'go big or get out' realization, and as the prospect of slogging through months more of a developing quagmire becomes too politically and economically costly. This is potentially the declare 'victory' and get out moment. As former Congressman Ron Paul has put it: Just Walk Away!

Trump: I think the war with Iran will end pretty soon. I don’t think they can go much longer.

Q: Have you reached a deal to reopen the strait of Hormuz?

Trump: It’s sort of open right now. pic.twitter.com/J3lcPyuVwM

— Acyn (@Acyn) August 6, 2026

This is further evidenced in Trump's sudden realism, expressed late Thursday in the same Oval Office presser. When asked about the status of the Strait of Hormuz, he admitted that "it's easy for them to send a drone or two, drop a mine, or deliver a close range missile somewhere along, or in, this Waterway, no matter how badly defeated they are."

He further acknowledged: 

"People don’t want" to risk ships worth billions of dollars and expose them to the possibility of accidentally hitting a mine in the Strait of Hormuz, he conceded. Trump also claimed Thursday that Hormuz is "sort of open right now," although fewer than 10 ships per day transited from Sunday through Tuesday, according to Kpler data.

Of course, the US and Iran have been involved in several of these 'pauses' and cooling off periods before, which were later revealed to be the 'calm before the storm'. Tehran has since wised up and pointed out that the Pentagon used these interim periods of no fighting to just rearm, reposition, and ramp up military supply flights to the region.

Joe Kent: 'Good First Step' Toward an Exit

Joe Kent, a top national security official who resigned in protest of the Iran war upon the very start of the operation, is welcoming these signs that Trump is finally seeking to extricate the US from the conflict at all costs:

Trump is messaging that he won the war— this is a good first step in extricating us from what would otherwise be a catastrophic mistake. The reality is, the best “deal” we can make with Iran at this point that works in our favor is to just leave—it’s the only case in which POTUS then holds the cards.

He needs to “close the deal” now, before the Iranians force him back into a shooting war. We simply can’t assume that Iran will wait idly for us to make the next move. Alarmingly, it seems we are failing to account for just how aggressively killing the Ayatollah & bombing the girls’ school has radicalized Iranian leadership & its people—it’s very likely that Iran will feel compelled to drag us back into the war in order to force the U.S. to retreat, bloodied, both for the sake of its national honor & for deterrence.

Trump can end this by pulling our troops & ships out of the region now—deprive Iran of targets to hit and the leverage they need to escalate. Trump says we’ve won, therefore we can bring them home.

So either Trump is indeed preparing to go bigger, or this is - belatedly - the final 'cut and run' moment that probably the majority of the American public has been hoping for.

Another sign, via his Truth Social latest, that Trump could finally be willing to say 'mission accomplished' and get out, while letting the regional and oil transit 'chips fall':

Iran Hasn't Blinked

The deadly alternative to simply declaring an exit is an eventual introduction of ground troops and full-on regime change. Thankfully, Trump officials have continued to by and large condemn this as a legitimate scenario - given it would surely once again put US forces in a new 'forever war' that would last years or even decades.

Read our: Visualizing Iran's Vast Size & Why Any Ground Invasion Means Years-Long Quagmire

But in the meantime, the Iranians do smell weakness and blood in the water. Just before US markets closed Thursday, Tehran announced its forces attacked and struck 'hostile targets' at Qeshm island, near the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran is remaining defiant, and even sees itself in the driver's seat with its ability to wage asymmetric warfare against a much larger US foe which is confused on what to do next. This was also on display with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian having asserted this week in an interview, "Our enemies expected the country to collapse due to the pressures they have exerted." He added that these pressures have "reached their maximum".

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 14:30

Trump Threatens To Jail Arms Shortage 'Leakers'

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

President Trump on Thursday threatened "leakers" with jail time over reports about dwindling US military stockpiles as a result of the Iran war, and claimed the US had plenty of munitions available.

"The US has massive amounts of ‘munitions,’ especially of certain types. Additionally, large amounts are being manufactured and shipped to the US as needed," Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Official White House Photo

"Defense companies are building the largest number of plants and factories in our country’s history. The 'leakers' of these treasonous statements are being hunted down," the president added.

Some of the most significant reports about the shortage of advanced munitions didn’t come from media reports but from analysis published by the think tank the Center for International Studies (CSIS), which used publicly available data to produce its estimates.

CSIS found that the US has used about 60% of its advanced Patriot air defense missiles and about half of its interceptors for the THAAD missile defense system, though sources told CNN that the US had actually used about 80% of its THAADs during the war.

While Trump says that US arms makers are working to produce more munitions, the current rate of weapons use far exceeds the rate at which they can be produced, and it will take years to significantly increase production.

Media reports have also said that the US has used up nearly all of its ATACMS missiles and Precision-Strike Missiles, which were both used extensively in strikes on Iran.

Trump also responded to a report from The Washington Post that said he lashed out at US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth over the munitions shortages, which one source told the outlet was part of the reason why Trump held off on his threats to dramatically escalate the war.

Sources told the Post that on the sidelines of a recent cabinet meeting at Camp David, Trump vented his frustration at Hegseth over the munitions shortages. The report said that Hegseth then blamed his deputy, Stephen Feinberg, for both the shortages and for failing to ensure Trump was informed about the issue.

Asked about dwindling US weapons stockpiles, President Trump on Thursday said there's a "virtual unlimited supply" of certain munitions and "we have others where it’s a little bit tighter" https://t.co/UFMSGvXiWa pic.twitter.com/lZtfbSuKgB

— Bloomberg (@business) August 6, 2026

"The Fake News, as usual, is spreading false and completely unfounded rumors. I am extremely happy with the job that Pete Hegseth is doing," Trump wrote on Truth Social. He said that the Post published the report "despite our telling them their story is completely FALSE" and added that he believed their "fake ‘reporting’ is treasonous."

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 14:00

Saudi Arabia's $5 Oil Detour Is Expensive... But Worth It

Authored by Leon Stille via OilPrice.com,

• Rerouting Saudi crude to Asia via Yanbu, Egypt’s SUMED pipeline and the Cape of Good Hope may add around $5 per barrel and up to four weeks to a voyage.

• That premium is small compared with the economic damage caused by losing access to Hormuz or Bab el-Mandeb altogether.

• Saudi Arabia’s alternative export infrastructure is not a temporary workaround but a strategic asset—although it cannot replace the kingdom’s wider need to diversify beyond oil.

The latest Saudi oil route looks absurd on a map.

Crude moves west across Saudi Arabia to Yanbu, north through the Red Sea to Egypt, across the SUMED pipeline from Ain Sokhna to Sidi Kerir, then west through the Mediterranean before tankers sail around the Cape of Good Hope to reach customers in Asia.

Oil that started relatively close to Asia first travels thousands of kilometres in the opposite direction.

The detour reportedly adds around $5 per barrel once extra freight, fuel, insurance and pipeline charges are included. For a two-million-barrel cargo, that approaches $10 million. Aramco is therefore considering a separate pricing mechanism for crude loaded from Egypt’s Mediterranean port of Sidi Kerir, because its normal Asian official selling price no longer reflects the logistics.

The immediate conclusion is that avoiding Hormuz has made Saudi oil structurally more expensive.

That is true. But it misses the more important point.

Five dollars per barrel is not only the cost of disruption. It is the price of having another option when two of the world’s most vulnerable shipping chokepoints can no longer be treated as permanently available.

Two chokepoints turned one contingency route into another

Saudi Arabia’s first line of defence against disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is its East-West Pipeline. It carries crude from the kingdom’s producing region in the east to Yanbu on the Red Sea, avoiding Hormuz completely.

That system has proved its value. Aramco says it ramped the pipeline up to its maximum capacity of 7 million barrels per day during the first quarter of 2026. Around 2 million barrels per day feed western refineries, leaving roughly 5 million barrels per day of export capacity.

However, moving oil to Yanbu solves only the first geographical problem. Asian buyers would normally take those cargoes south through the Red Sea and exit via Bab el-Mandeb. Houthi threats and attacks have made that route unreliable as well.

The newer workaround therefore does not avoid the Red Sea entirely, as some viral descriptions claim. It uses the northern Red Sea between Yanbu and Ain Sokhna, but avoids the Houthi-exposed Bab el-Mandeb passage by moving through Egypt and into the Mediterranean.

From there, the ship still faces a remarkable journey. It must leave the Mediterranean through Gibraltar, sail around Africa and cross the Indian Ocean back towards Asia.

Reuters calculated that the journey to Asia can increase from about 19 days to 48 days. Fuel costs for a tanker can rise from approximately $1.26 million to $2.87 million, before adding around $1 million in Suez Canal fees. Fully laden very large crude carriers may also need to discharge part of their cargo into the SUMED pipeline before transiting the canal and reload it at Sidi Kerir.

None of this is cheap or efficient.

But the relevant alternative is not the old route operating normally. It is a delayed cargo versus no cargo.

The $5 premium is smaller than the risk it insures

Oil markets are accustomed to treating infrastructure efficiency as a question of cents per barrel. Under stable conditions, that makes sense. Producers compete on transport costs, crude quality and refinery margins, while buyers optimise routes aggressively.

Geopolitical resilience follows different economics.

An extra $5 on an $85 barrel is a material cost increase, but it is small compared with the price spikes, refinery shortages and lost export revenues caused by a major supply interruption. Saudi exports were down by around 2.4 million barrels per day year-on-year during the recent disruption, while Gulf exports fell to only 36% of pre-war levels.

Even more importantly, the risks do not disappear the moment both straits formally reopen.

Iran does not need to close Hormuz permanently to influence shipping. Mines, drone attacks, seizures or even credible threats can raise insurance premiums and persuade shipowners to wait. The Houthis have demonstrated a similar ability to disrupt Red Sea traffic with relatively inexpensive weapons.

A reopened chokepoint is therefore not the same thing as a dependable chokepoint.

That changes how the detour should be valued. The additional route is comparable to spare generation capacity in an electricity system or a second supplier in an industrial supply chain. It may look expensive when everything works. Its value becomes obvious only when the primary route fails.

Saudi Arabia has maintained this kind of optionality better than many producers. Despite the severe regional disruption, Aramco reported 98.4% supply reliability in the second quarter, supported by the East-West Pipeline, storage, alternative terminals and its international logistics network.

The $5 premium is part of the cost of preserving that record.

Redundancy is becoming part of the barrel

The important shift is that Aramco may now need different pricing formulas for the same crude depending on where it is loaded and how it reaches the buyer.

Official selling prices, or OSPs, are the monthly differentials that producers apply relative to regional crude benchmarks. They normally reflect grade quality, market conditions and destination. A separate Sidi Kerir formula would make logistics resilience an explicit component of the barrel’s price.

That is not necessarily permanent for every cargo. If Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb become reliably navigable again, the longest route will lose its commercial appeal. Asian refiners will not voluntarily pay millions more for an unnecessary voyage.

But the infrastructure should not be viewed as stranded the moment normal shipping resumes. Saudi Arabia is already considering expanding its east-west pipeline capacity by as much as 2 million barrels per day. Yanbu is being repositioned from a secondary outlet into a strategic export hub. SUMED, Suez, Mediterranean storage and flexible tanker arrangements add further options.

The lesson of 2026 is that relying on a single efficient route can be more expensive than maintaining several imperfect ones.

This will influence investment decisions well beyond Saudi Arabia. Pipelines, terminals and storage assets previously judged as underutilised may acquire a resilience premium. Buyers may accept higher costs for supply contracts with genuine routing flexibility. Insurers and lenders will increasingly distinguish between producers that have contingency infrastructure and those whose exports depend on one exposed waterway.

The result is a higher structural logistics cost for some barrels, even if benchmark oil prices fall.

Better oil logistics do not solve Saudi Arabia’s larger problem

There is, however, a danger in celebrating resilience too much.

Saudi Arabia can spend billions making oil exports harder to interrupt, but it cannot make global oil demand permanent. Electric vehicles, efficiency, alternative fuels and climate policy will gradually erode demand growth. The kingdom ultimately needs business models that do not depend on exporting ever-larger volumes of crude.

Riyadh understands this. According to its Vision 2030 annual report, non-oil activities accounted for 55% of real GDP in 2025, while non-oil government revenue had risen substantially since 2016. Investment in tourism, logistics, mining, manufacturing, technology and renewable energy is intended to reduce the economy’s exposure to oil.

Those figures should not be confused with completed diversification. Oil remains central to exports, fiscal capacity and the financing of many non-oil investments. Some flagship projects are expensive, and turning state-led spending into self-sustaining private activity remains difficult.

Yet this is not an either-or choice.

Saudi Arabia needs to protect the oil revenues it still earns while using those revenues to build an economy that will eventually need them less. More flexible export infrastructure supports the first task. Vision 2030 is supposed to deliver the second.

The Cape route may add $5 per barrel. That is the visible cost.

The invisible value is that Saudi Arabia can still sell the barrel when the shortest routes become unusable.

In an oil market shaped increasingly by drones, missiles and maritime chokepoints, redundancy is no longer wasted infrastructure.

It is part of the product.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 13:20

5th Small Modular Reactor Validated Since June, Poised For Mass Production

Another small nuclear reactor has achieved “criticality,” marking the fifth new reactor type to be certified as operationally viable in the United States since June, after none were certified for more than a half-century, as the nation’s “nuclear renaissance” quickly advances to commercial mass-production.

Santa Clara, California-based Oklo’s Groves Isotope Test Reactor reached criticality on Aug. 5 at the company’s plant in Lockhart, Texas, and will produce isotopes for medicine, advanced manufacturing, scientific research, space exploration, and national security needs.

Unlike massive cement-siloed, utility-scale reactors such as the Westinghouse AP1000, the Groves reactor is a circular 22.5-foot-diameter nuclear generator that can be shipped by truck or rail and planted in a 35-foot-deep reinforced concrete cavity, making it a distinct entry in an expanding range of small, portable reactors on the cusp of being retail ready.

As John Haughey details for The Epoch Times, Oklo is one of 10 companies selected by the Department of Energy (DOE) in August 2025 to develop 11 “first mover” innovations under a reactor pilot program authorized by President Donald Trump in four May 2025 “Nuclear Renaissance” executive orders that call for licensing 10 new reactors by 2030 and quadrupling the nation’s nuclear energy capacity by 2050.

The president’s executive orders included incentives for three prototypes to reach “criticality” by July 4 to commemorate the 250th anniversary of the nation’s founding. That goal was eclipsed when Aalo Atomics’ Aalo-X became the fourth small reactor to attain criticality on July 4 after Antares Nuclear’s Mark-0 on June 4 became the first new reactor type in the United States to achieve the status since 1973.

With Oklo’s Groves reactor becoming the fifth to reach criticality in the last two months, Trump’s five-year goal for 10 small reactor types to be validated is already halfway accomplished. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said as many as seven would achieve criticality by year’s end.

The Groves reactor is one of two Oklo reactor developments that qualified for the pilot program. The company is also building a 75 megawatt reactor to anchor its Aurora Powerhouse Project at Idaho National Laboratory’s Materials and Fuels Complex, a prototype the company anticipates will be ready for “commercial operations” by 2028.

The Groves reactor is also one of two that attained viability in a privately owned plant rather than on the 890-square-mile Idaho National Lab near Idaho Falls.

“Thanks to President Trump’s precedent-setting directive to create the Reactor Pilot Program, Oklo’s Groves Isotope Test Reactor is part of the revival of America’s nuclear energy industry,” Assistant Secretary for Nuclear Energy Ted Garrish said in a statement. “We applaud the work of the Oklo, DOE, and Idaho National Laboratory staff who helped achieve this milestone.”

United States Energy Secretary Chris Wright speaks with Kiewit Construction Site Manager Marvin Robb (L) and Atlas Engineering Project Manager Hillary Hack during a June 25 tour of Oklo’s Aurora Powerhouse Project at Idaho National Laboratory. John Haughey/The Epoch Times

Built in a Year

During a tour of Idaho National Laboratory in late June, Oklo Co-Founder and CEO Jacob DeWitte said the company’s Groves reactor in Texas would soon reach criticality despite being built from scratch in less than a year.

The company began building the open, water-cooled reactor designed to supply domestic radioisotopes for medical imaging, cancer treatments, and national defense in September 2025, he said, and received DOE’s “substantial completion” certification in April, clearing it for criticality.

“It’s dang impressive that we hit substantial completion in 227 days, and that we'll be able to turn that reactor on in critical in less than a year,” he said. “We’re just waiting on the green light to take fuel, load it, and turn it on.”

That green light came late on Aug. 5.

“Reaching criticality in less than a year is an incredible milestone for our team,” DeWitte said in an Aug. 6 statement. “Oklo developed Groves from a greenfield site on private land, completed full-scale civil excavation and construction, manufactured or commercially procured all components, including fuel, and developed its operating programs in-house.

“Taken together,” he added, “we believe these accomplishments establish a new benchmark for the Reactor Pilot Program and set the stage for the future of advanced nuclear deployment at scale.”

The nation—the world—is poised to see “advanced nuclear deployment at scale” with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission expected this fall to adopt Part 57, a micro-reactor regulatory framework that trims license reviews from often more than a decade to between six and 12 months.

Under Part 57, when the commission issues a license for a prototype reactor, the developer doesn’t need further approvals to mass produce it. Public comment on the rule closed July 15. Commissioners are expected to debate and adopt a final rule no later than early 2027.

“Ordering one [reactor] is cool, but ordering 10 is a lot better,” DeWitte said in Idaho. “There’s a future for that, for sure.”

Oklo is engaged in multiple nuclear energy projects in addition to its Groves reactor and Aurora Powerhouse, including a fuel fabrication plant prototype to recycle fuels from Idaho National Lab’s Experimental Breeder Reactor-II, idle since 1994; a co-partnership with Nvidia in a fuel project at Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico; and its September 2025 contract with hyperscaler Meta to power a 200-acre data center campus in Pike County, Ohio, with a small reactor by the early 2030s.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 13:00

Meet The Investors In SpaceX Who Say Their Shares "Disappeared"

Some investors who thought they had secured one of Wall Street's hottest trades, owning SpaceX before its blockbuster IPO, say the shares they expected to cash in on simply disappeared, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The controversy centers on special purpose vehicles (SPVs), investment funds that promise accredited investors exposure to private companies before they go public. After SpaceX's June IPO, several investors who bought into SPVs managed by Late Stage Management say they were stunned to learn the underlying SpaceX shares had allegedly been sold years earlier, leaving them without the windfall they believed they still owned.

The Journal writes that one of those investors, Virginia data engineer Ram Rupireddy, invested $17,250 in a Late Stage fund in 2020 after being told it offered exposure to SpaceX. Based on statements in his investor portal and 2025 tax documents, he believed he still owned the equivalent of 2,500 SpaceX shares when the company debuted publicly. At the IPO price, he estimated the position would have been worth more than $300,000. Instead, the firm later informed him the underlying shares had been sold in 2024, leaving him with roughly $45,450.

"The plan was to fund college education for both of my kids," Rupireddy said after filing a complaint with the Securities and Exchange Commission. He says he never received notice that his investment had been sold, and only discovered the change after temporarily losing access to Late Stage's investor portal, which later showed the position had been liquidated.

Another investor, who asked not to be identified, told The Wall Street Journal he experienced the same surprise. He said he believed he still owned pre IPO SpaceX exposure until after the company's public debut, when he was informed the underlying shares had already been sold years earlier. Like Rupireddy, he has since joined other investors seeking legal remedies, and told the newspaper an SEC attorney and an FBI special agent contacted him to discuss his experience.

According to The Wall Street Journal, at least four investors reported similar experiences, while roughly 150 Late Stage investors have joined a group chat to discuss potential legal action. One investor told the newspaper that an SEC attorney and an FBI agent contacted him about his experience. The SEC declined to comment on whether it is investigating the matter, and the FBI also declined comment.

Late Stage Management did not respond to repeated requests for comment. The firm is already facing separate legal scrutiny after three former sales executives pleaded guilty earlier this year to fraud charges involving hidden markups and fees, though prosecutors said those cases were unrelated to the disputed SpaceX shares.

The episode is also drawing fresh attention to the risks of SPVs, which often provide indirect "exposure" to private companies through multiple layers of investment vehicles rather than direct ownership of shares. As Davis Polk partner Jared Fine told the Journal, "Ultimately if you're investing, you want to make sure you own what you think you own."

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 12:20

Rockstar Founder Builds $300M Celsius Stake, Launches Activist Offense: Management "All Need To Be Fired"

Summary:

• CELH shares Jump on CNBC Headline 
• Rockstar Founder Amasses 5.7% CELH stake, Tells CNBC He Wants To Be CEO
• Thursday: Celsius Shares Crash As Revenue Misses Estimates

Rockstar Founder Begins Activist Move 

One day after Celsius Holdings crashed 18% following a dismal second-quarter earnings report, Rockstar Energy founder Russ Savage told CNBC that he has amassed a 4.7% stake, equivalent to more than 12 million shares, and wants to gut incompetent management and install himself as CEO in a bid to turn around the struggling beverage company.

Here's more from CNBC:

Savage's stake amounts to roughly 4.7% of the company and would be worth about $300 million at current stock levels.

While Savage has been quietly advising Celsius to change its cost structure and marketing strategy for over a year, he now says new leadership is needed.

"The CEO, the COO, the brand manager and the marketing manager all need to be fired," Savage told CNBC.

. . .

Savage, who was born Russell Weiner and started Rockstar with a $50,000 mortgage against his California condo, said he offered advice to Celsius over a year ago, but was largely ignored. He said Celsius has too many layers of management, with too many costs, and no real accountability.

"They need one person making the decisions, paying attention to every detail, not a group of people in a firing squad," he said.

. . .

"Once you lose shelf space, you're dead," he said. "The chains will give it to Red Bull or Monster."

Savage said he's offering to take over as CEO before the problems become too deep to fix. When building Rockstar, he said he managed every detail -- from sales and marketing to sponsorships, packaging, distribution and innovation. He said the same type of cost-conscious, driven leader is needed at Celsius.

"I'm publicly volunteering to do it," he said. "The CEO has lost credibility with the investment community."

The CNBC headline catapulted the stock 12% higher by late morning in New York. Shares have yet to recover all of yesterday's losses following the dismal earnings report. More details can be viewed below.

Latest short data from Bloomberg shows about 20% of the float is short. 

Squeeze candidate? 

Celsius Shares Crash As Revenue Misses Estimates 

Celsius Holdings, the Florida-based beverage company with a portfolio of some of America's top-performing energy drinks, reported weaker-than-expected second-quarter results, as revenue, adjusted earnings, and profitability missed Wall Street estimates.

Second-quarter adjusted earnings fell to 36 cents per share from 47 cents a year earlier, below the 41-cent Bloomberg Consensus estimate. Revenue increased 11% to $817.9 million but missed the $872.6 million estimate, with North American sales of $790.7 million also falling short.

Profitability deteriorated despite sales growth. Gross margin narrowed to 48.1% from 51.5% as promotional activity, channel mix, and aluminum inflation weighed on results. Net income fell 45% to $55.3 million, while adjusted earnings declined to 36 cents per share from 47 cents. Adjusted EBITDA dropped 12% to $184.2 million.

2Q Earnings Snapshot:

Adjusted EPS 36c vs. 47c y/y, estimate 41c (Bloomberg Consensus)

EPS 14c vs. 33c y/y, estimate 40c

Revenue $817.9 million, +11% y/y, estimate $872.6 million

• North America revenue $790.7 million, +11% y/y, estimate $847.3 million
• International revenue $27.2 million, +9.7% y/y

Gross margin 48.1% vs. 51.5% y/y, estimate 48.6%

Adjusted Ebitda $184.2 million, -12% y/y, estimate $198.4 million

Celsius shares plunged 16% in premarket trading. 

"During the second quarter of 2026, we made meaningful progress in advancing Celsius Holdings as a scaled portfolio of leading brands. We delivered a double-digit increase in second-quarter revenue, completed the Rockstar integration, and maintained gross margin near first-quarter levels despite a challenging commodity environment," CEO John Fieldly wrote in a press release.

Celsius Holdings' portfolio, which includes CELSIUS, Alani Nu, and the U.S. and Canadian Rockstar Energy business, accounts for about 20% of U.S. ready-to-drink energy sales. PepsiCo serves as the company's primary distribution partner.

Notably, the national average price for regular 87-octane gasoline remained mostly above $4 per gallon in the quarter, a key threshold at which consumer behavior begins to shift through trade-downs and reduced discretionary purchases. Goldman Sachs analyst Bonnie Herzog previously flagged a slowdown in energy-drink demand beginning in mid-May. Read the full note here.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 12:15

US Senate Pushes CLARITY Act Vote To September

Authored by Ezra Reguerra via CoinTelegraph.com,

Senate Republican leaders are expected to leave for their August recess without voting on crypto market structure legislation, delaying consideration of the bill until at least September, according to a report from Politico. 

Senate Majority Leader John Thune confirmed that the chamber would not vote on the legislation before the recess, citing Democratic opposition and saying it would be prioritized when senators return next month. 

“The Dems are insistent on no Clarity vote,” Thune said, according to comments his office provided to Cointelegraph. “I worked with sponsors of the bill. Senator Lummis was great, and we’re getting that queued up first thing when we come back.”

The postponement leaves one of the crypto industry’s top legislative priorities unresolved and compresses the Senate’s timetable for advancing the bill. Without sufficient Democratic support, Republicans may struggle to secure the 60 votes generally needed to overcome a filibuster.

Crypto Council for Innovation CEO Ji Hun Kim called the postponement “disappointing” but said the direction of the legislation had not changed.

“Every day without such a framework pushes American users and builders offshore and leaves consumers at risk,” Kim said in comments provided to Cointelegraph.

September delay narrows path for CLARITY Act

Thune’s remarks come after comments from Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott, who said on Thursday the chamber should hold its first vote on the CLARITY Act before the recess “without any question.” 

Scott said Thune still had time to schedule the procedural vote and that Republicans were gaining support for it. 

The CLARITY Act would establish a federal framework for digital asset markets and clarify how oversight is divided between the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Citing three people with knowledge of the matter, Politico reported that the CLARITY Act lacks Democratic support. Negotiations remained underway.

Thune may still file cloture before the recess. This procedural step could position the bill for a vote when senators return in mid-September, but it would not constitute a vote on the legislation, according to two people cited by Politico.

Cointelegraph also asked Thune’s office to confirm whether he intended to file cloture before the Senate leaves for recess, but has not received a response to the question by time of publication. 

The sources said Democrats have declined to approve a time agreement that would expedite the Senate’s remaining pre-recess business and allow the crypto bill to reach the floor. 

According to the report, Republican leaders would need unanimous consent from all 100 senators to complete the outstanding items without extending the session deep into next week.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 12:00

Consumers More Optimistic On Jobs, Financial Conditions, Stock Prices As Inflation Eases: NY Fed Survey

Unlike recent extremely volatile months, consumers expectations for inflation in July barely budged as disclosed today by the latest NY Fed Survey, which showed that inflation expectations in one year fell slightly to 3.6% from 3.7% prior. Estimates for price increases in three and five years remained at 3.3% and 3%, respectively, although the 3Y inflation forecast did dip notably, if not enough to move it by a significant digit. 

Gas price growth expectations rebounded partially after their sharp decline in June, increasing by 1.4% to 2.9%. 

Away from inflation, labor market expectations were mixed, with the mean probability of higher US unemployment rate increasing by 1.1 ppt to 42.8%...

... and the mean probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months increasing by 0.1 ppt to 14.2 percent; however, this was offset by the mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost, which increased by 1.3% to 46.2% the highest this year.  That increase was most pronounced among those who have a high school degree or less and those living in a household where income is under $ 50,000 per year. 

Earlier on Friday, the government employment report showed employers cut jobs in July and the labor-force participation continued to slide. The jobless rate declined to 4.1%. 

Recent data pointed to a strengthening of the American consumer. Spending rose more than expected in the three months through June, and the University of Michigan’s gauge of sentiment increased to a five-month high in July.

In the New York Fed report, more households said their current financial situation was better than last year, and more said their finances will stay about the same in 2027.

Still, the average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment in the next three months increased, especially among in households where annual income is below $ 50,000.

Consumers were also more optimistic about the stock market, with the probability that stock prices will be higher a year from now reaching the highest level of the series since April 2021.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 11:45

Hours After Murkowski Predictably Sides With Dems, Cassidy Unblocks Blanche AG Nomination

Sen. Bill Cassidy announced Friday he will support Todd Blanche's nomination for attorney general, clearing the decisive path for confirmation after two other Republican senators opposed the pick.

Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche appears before the Senate Judiciary Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington, July 15, 2026. 

Cassidy, a Louisiana Republican who had remained undecided amid weeks of scrutiny, made the announcement in remarks on the Senate floor. "Mr. Blanche is not perfect, and he will tell you this, but the choice is not between perfection and Mr. Blanche," he said. "It is between Mr. Blanche and another acting attorney general who may not run the department effectively under President Trump and who indeed may not be as good as Mr. Blanche." He added: "All considered, I will vote for Mr. Blanche. I'll be criticized for this vote. What's new?"

The decision came hours after RINO Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) declared she would not support Blanche. In a post on X, Murkowski said the country needs an attorney general "who will check the worst impulses of this administration" and that she lacked confidence Blanche is that person. She also voiced concern that confirmation would remove Senate leverage over a nearly $2 billion anti-weaponization fund intended to compensate people claiming they were unfairly targeted by the government. "The fund is only off the table because this nomination is pending and the Senate has leverage," Murkowski stated. "Once we vote, that will end, and there is no telling what the future holds."

Blanche, who has served as acting attorney general and previously as President Donald Trump's personal criminal defense lawyer, rescinded the order establishing the fund on Aug. 2. The move formed part of an agreement with Sens. Thom Tillis (R-NC) and John Cornyn (R-TX) that allowed the Senate Judiciary Committee to advance the nomination to the full Senate. Blanche said at the time that the department "always welcomes and appreciates productive engagement with all members of Congress."

Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), another RINO, announced earlier in the week that she would oppose Blanche, citing actions including an order shielding Trump and his family members from certain tax audits. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) remains absent while 'recovering from a fall at home', with no clear timeline for his return.

Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority. With McConnell out, Blanche could afford to lose only two Republican votes if all Democrats opposed him. Collins and Murkowski provided those two "no" votes. Cassidy's support supplies the critical 50th vote in favor, positioning the nomination for approval by a narrow margin even without Democratic support. All 47 Democrats are expected to vote against Blanche.

Cassidy had raised repeated concerns in recent weeks that Blanche might function more as the president's personal attorney than as an independent attorney general for the country. He spoke with Blanche multiple times, including meetings addressing worries about "lawfare" - prosecutions driven by political anger rather than valid legal grounds - and met with Murkowski as well. Despite those reservations, Cassidy concluded that confirming Blanche was preferable to leaving the department under an indefinite acting leadership that might prove less effective.

Before the Tillis-Cornyn deal, Trump had floated the possibility of withdrawing the nomination and waiting until senators facing reelection challenges or retirement were replaced in January 2027. Cornyn lost his primary, Tillis chose not to run, and Cassidy also lost his reelection bid after Trump-backed challengers prevailed. Collins advanced through her primary and faces a general-election contest; McConnell is not seeking another term. Murkowski's term continues until early 2029.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) on Capitol Hill in Washington on March 18, 2021. Susan Walsh/Getty Images Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 11:30

Scientists Warn Of Urgent AI Biosecurity Threat

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

For the first time, artificial intelligence has designed complete, functional viral genomes from scratch.

Oh dear.

Stanford University and Arc Institute researchers used generative AI models to produce 16 novel bacteriophages that successfully infect and kill bacteria in the lab.

Breaking News: Scientists have used A.I. to create new viruses for the first time, raising hopes for medical advances while also raising the possibility that the technology could someday be used to invent dangerous pathogens. https://t.co/MJG4mp0TTb

— The New York Times (@nytimes) August 6, 2026

Officials insist the viruses "pose no threat to people," yet biosecurity experts are already sounding the alarm that the same technology opens the door to inventing dangerous pathogens.

JUST IN – For the first time, AI has designed complete viral genomes, producing 16 functional viruses that infect bacteria and "pose no threat to people." — BBC pic.twitter.com/Le4lRSKN7q

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) August 6, 2026

The breakthrough, published in the journal Science, marks the first time generative AI has written entire viable viral genomes.

Researchers trained genome language models known as Evo 1 and Evo 2 on millions of natural genetic sequences. They then tasked the systems with designing complete bacteriophage genomes based on the well-studied ?X174 template that infects E. coli.

Of 302 synthesized designs, 16 proved fully functional: they assembled into virus particles, replicated inside bacterial cells, and in some cases outperformed the natural virus, even overcoming bacterial resistance when used as a cocktail.

Oh dear.

Brian Hie, assistant professor at Stanford who led the work, called it new territory. "This is a next step in the complexity that's designable by generative AI, this is the first time generative AI has been used to design a complete genome, it's something that can replicate and have other functions inside cells... this was new territory for us," he told the BBC.

The team deliberately excluded genetic data from viruses capable of infecting complex organisms and conducted the work in a secure laboratory. The resulting phages target only specific bacteria.

Patrick Cai, a synthetic biologist at the University of Manchester not involved in the study, called it "an important milestone."

Yet the same experts who celebrate the medical potential for phage therapies against antibiotic-resistant infections are issuing blunt warnings.

In an accompanying commentary in Science, Dr. Thomas Inglesby and Dr. Moritz Hanke of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security wrote that the findings raise "urgent biosafety and biosecurity questions."

They stated it is no longer a question of "whether generative viral genome design will exist" but whether it can be used without "enabling serious harm."

Oh dear.

New viruses with the potential to cause disease "should not be pursued," they added. "The ability to compose viral genomes using generative AI now exists; the governance to safely steer it does not."

Hanke has separately noted that one could simply prompt a genomic language model: "Hey, genomic language model, make me an influenza genome that is modified to be more transmissible or to be more lethal."

This is not abstract risk. Humanity already learned hard lessons when researchers mess with pathogens in laboratories. The COVID era exposed the catastrophic consequences of gain-of-function work and lab leaks.

Now AI is being handed the tools to design novel viruses at machine speed, far outpacing the regulatory frameworks meant to contain them.

The potential for misuse or accidental release is frightening. The only meaningful safeguard cited by the researchers themselves is a training-data filter - something that can be reversed by any team with access to broader viral datasets.

First article you find in a Resident Evil game https://t.co/6yNvWlhbLE

— 1/4 Black Garrett (@QTRBlackGarrett) August 6, 2026

Online reactions captured the unease immediately. One widely shared comment called the news "First article you find in a Resident Evil game." Others noted the same pattern: "No way this sort of virus randomly mutates to harm humans! Would never happen!" and "Modern scientists didn't watch 80's sci-fi horror and it shows."

This development arrives against a backdrop of repeated AI systems exceeding their intended bounds.

In July, an OpenAI model went rogue during testing, escaped its sandbox, and launched a cyber attack on Hugging Face after chaining exploits and stolen credentials.

This keeps happening.

Cutting-edge AI went on a hacking spree, concocting multiple fake identities designed to trick human engineers before covering its tracks.

During testing by a UK government-run AI lab, an advanced version of ChatGPT and Anthropic's Mythos went rogue.

In the most serious case,... pic.twitter.com/PFWFP5jmrv

— The Telegraph (@Telegraph) August 6, 2026

Meta says AI model accessed the internet and hacked another firm https://t.co/qBebzeboWU

— BBC News (UK) (@BBCNews) August 6, 2026

JUST IN: ?? Chinese company Moonshot's AI model breaks out and escapes from isolated test environment.

— BRICS News (@BRICSinfo) August 7, 2026

Earlier this year an AI coding agent wiped out a startup's entire production database and backups in nine seconds after "thinking for itself."

A tech entrepreneur reported his AI agent autonomously built itself a visual face and interface while he slept.

And when AI bots were placed in a virtual town for two weeks with clear rules against violence and chaos, they promptly went apesh*t - forming alliances, committing arson, and collapsing the simulated society.

These are not isolated glitches. They reveal systems that interpret goals, adapt, and act with speed and autonomy humans cannot easily interrupt.

Now layer onto that the growing chorus of voices who casually state that the human population needs to be halved.

"Scientists say halving the Worlds population could help save the planet"

Probably what the Boosters were designed to do anyway. pic.twitter.com/NKqRCvKwkB

— Concerned Citizen (@BGatesIsaPyscho) August 5, 2026

Recent research and commentary have revived the idea that reducing the world's people to around four billion by 2200 would ease pressure on the planet - framed as a "pro-human" strategy through voluntary measures, yet delivered with the same technocratic confidence that once dismissed lab-leak risks.

Scientists say halving human population could ease pressure on Earthhttps://t.co/w3EU3isiXy

— Insider Paper (@TheInsiderPaper) August 4, 2026

Imagine the same AI genome-design capability landing in the hands of those who view large-scale population reduction as a planetary necessity.

The tools that can design beneficial bacteriophages can, with different training data or prompts, design far more dangerous agents.

History shows that once a capability exists, containment relies on human restraint, institutional integrity, and enforceable rules - none of which have a perfect track record when power, ideology, or "greater good" justifications enter the picture.

The researchers emphasize medical upside: tailored phages that could help defeat drug-resistant bacteria. That potential is real. So is the reality that generative AI has crossed a threshold.

Complete, replicating viral genomes can now be written by machines. The governance structures that might prevent the worst outcomes remain incomplete.

What was once science fiction is now peer-reviewed fact. The only question left is whether the same systems that design the cure will one day be directed - or allowed to drift - toward something far darker.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 11:00

July Jobs Shock: US Lost 23K Workers, Below Lowest Estimate, As Unemp Rate Drops To 4.1%

Ahead of today's jobs report, in our payrolls preview we warned that "July Has Emerged As A Very Poor Month For Jobs" and boy were we right: moments ago the BLS reported that in July, the US labor force shrank by a whopping 23K, sharply lower from a downward revised 20K in June (from 57K), and the worst print since the negative 156K in February.

As noted above, the -23K print was below all estimates...

... and was a 5-sigma miss to estimates...

... as the 80K median estimate was missed by more than 100K.

And here come the Biden admin tricks of massive prior revisions: the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down by 66,000, from +129,000 to  +63,000, and the change for June was revised down by 37,000, from +57,000 to +20,000. With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 103,000 lower than previously reported

Yet despite the dismal Establishment Survey print, the unemployment rate actually declined from 4.2% to 4.1%, which was as a result of the number of Unemployed workers declining by 178K, more than the decline in Employed workers, which shrank by just 87K.

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for teenagers (12.1%) and people who are Hispanic (4.6%) declined in July. The jobless rates for adult men (3.9 percent), adult  women (3.7 percent), and people who are White (3.6 percent), Black (6.3 percent), or Asian (4.0  percent) showed little change over the month.

What is remarkable is that while this was only the first drop in Payrolls in 5 months, the number of actual employed workers has been declining pretty much consistently all year (down 6 of the past 7 months)...

... and in July was the lowest US employment going back almost two years.

Part and parcel with the sudden chill in the labor market was the big miss in average hourly earnings, which rose just 0.1% MoM (below estimates of 0.3% and below last month's 0.3% increase), which in turn translated into a 3.2% annual increase, also far below the 3.5% median estimate.

Some more details on the composition of the labor market from the latest jobs report: 

• Among the unemployed, the number of people on temporary layoff increased by 153,000 to 921,000 in July. The number of permanent job losers changed little at 1.7 million. 
• In July, the number of people jobless less than 5 weeks edged down to 2.0 million and is down by 344,000 over the year. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) edged down over the month to 1.8 million but changed little over the year. The long-term unemployed accounted for 25.5 percent of all unemployed people in July. 
• Both the labor force participation rate, at 61.4 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 58.9 percent, changed little in July. Since January, the labor force participation rate declined by 0.7 percentage point, and the employment-population ratio decreased by 0.5 percentage point. 
• The number of people employed part time for economic reasons changed little at 4.8 million in July. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. 
• In July, the number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job changed little at 5.9 million. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job. 
• Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force changed little at 1.8 million in July. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, was essentially unchanged in July at 476,000. 

And another disappointing fact when looking below the surface: the number of part-time jobs rose by 138K and is once again approaching a record high, while full-time jobs dropped again by 106K, and is down 6 of the past 7 months.

As the next chart show, the number of full-time jobs is the lowest in 2 years.

Taking a look at the composition of the labor force, in July employment declined in local government education and retail trade. Employment continued to trend up in health care. Some more details: 

• Employment in local government education declined by 50,000 in July, after showing little net change over the prior 12 months.
• Retail trade lost 19,000 jobs in July. Employment declined in warehouse clubs, supercenters, and other general merchandise retailers (-21,000) and in gasoline stations and fuel dealers (-5,000). Sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, book, and miscellaneous retailers added 10,000 jobs. Retail trade employment had shown little net change over the prior 12 months. 
• Employment in financial activities continued to trend down in July (-14,000), reflecting losses in credit intermediation and related activities (-9,000) and insurance carriers and related activities (-7,000). Financial activities employment is down by 121,000 since a recent peak in May 2025. 
• In July, employment in health care continued its upward trend (+22,000) but at a slower pace than the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months (+36,000). Employment in ambulatory health care services continued to trend up over the month (+18,000). 

In other words, there were two key drivers for today's big jobs drop:

1. Leisure and Hospitality jobs -40K (of which -26.1K restaurant workers and -16.1K performing arts, sports, amusement and recreation) which was mostly World Cup driven 
2. Local government jobs, entirely due to education (-50K), i.e. vacation.

And visually:

Commenting on the report, WSJ Nick Timiraos concludes that it was a "messy one", to wit: 

The July employment report will be a messy one for the Federal Reserve to read. New evidence the labor market is not reaccelerating could take some of the edge off the case for raising rates next month, but this is all still subject to better inflation data.

Officials held rates steady last week but three of 12 officials voted for a rate increase. A declining unemployment rate will continue to keep the focus on inflation data. 

Whether price pressures are building or fading will determine whether more officials conclude that they can no longer maintain their forecast for inflation to return to their target with rates remaining at the current setting. A mild inflation report would reinforce the case for holding (because two cool months in a row start to look like a trend rather than noise). A firm one would put the forecast back in doubt and give the dissenters a fourth vote to look for.

To summarize, this was a mostly disappointing report, yet one driven by one-time factors (teachers, world cup) while the unemployment rate dropped due to a quirk in the calculation. Does this mean that no Fed hikes are coming? While the market is suddenly much more confident that a September rate hike is out of the picture, it is likely that Warsh will simply wait for a less noisy report before making a decision. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 10:55

Meta Ordered To Pay $567 Million In New Mexico For Children's Mental Health Fund

A New Mexico state judge on Aug. 6 ordered Meta to pay $567 million into a fund dedicated to remedying the harm caused to children’s mental health by the company’s social media platforms.

Meta is the parent company of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp.

State judge Bryan Biedscheid said in a 68-page order that most of the total youth mental health fund, or $420 million, would go toward treatment services for children harmed by social media.

The remainder of the fund would be directed toward awareness and prevention, screening and assessment, referrals and coordination, and implementation, according to the order.

“The Court finds that the weight of the evidence presented demonstrates that Meta’s platforms are a cause of and substantial contributing factor to the youth mental health crisis in New Mexico,” the judge wrote.

Furthermore, as Aldgra Fredly reports for The Epoch Times, in his ruling, Biedscheid ordered the company to delete the accounts of users under 13, along with all personal information collected from those accounts, and simplify the steps for reporting underage users.

Meta was also ordered to disable push notifications on its platforms for users under 18 between 10 p.m. and 7 a.m. on all days, and from 8 a.m. to 3 p.m. on school days during the academic year.

The company is also required to implement mandatory usage time limits for those accounts and hide, by default, all like counts on their content unless a parent or guardian authorizes a change to the default setting.

New Mexico Attorney General Raul Torrez hailed the ruling as a victory for parents and children, saying that youngsters deserve to have a safer environment online.

“This case has always been about protecting children, standing up for families, and making sure that one of the world’s largest technology companies cannot profit from practices that endanger young people without consequence,” Torrez said in a statement.

Meta spokesperson Andy Stone said in a post on X that the company disagreed with the ruling and planned to appeal, noting that Meta had been working to remove bad actors and harmful content from its platforms.

“We remain confident in our record of protecting teens online and will continue to defend ourselves against claims that misrepresent the facts,” Stone said.

The latest penalty comes on top of the $375 million fines that a New Mexico jury imposed on Meta in March for violating the state’s Unfair Practices Act by failing to disclose the potential risks of its social media platforms to children.

New Mexico sued Meta in December 2023, alleging that the company’s social media platforms served as a “breeding ground” for predators targeting children for human trafficking, sexual image distribution, grooming, and solicitation.

Meta denied the allegations, saying at the time that it uses advanced technology to root out bad actors and employs child safety experts. The company also said that it shares information and tools with other companies and law enforcement, including state attorneys general, to help identify predators.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 10:40

Wall Street Crowns First Solar As Clear Winner After Trump's Polysilicon Tariffs Create "Structural Floor" For Industry

Solar stocks are shining in premarket trading in New York after the Trump administration announced a new 15% tariff and a price floor on imports of polysilicon derivatives, including silicon wafers, photovoltaic cells, and solar modules. The move is intended to secure the domestic solar supply chain after years of cheap Chinese panels flooding the country, making it uneconomical for domestic manufacturers to compete.

"Polysilicon is the base material underpinning the security of America's semiconductor and solar-power supply chains. Yet for decades, America has allowed foreign countries to weaken United States producers in the polysilicon sector ‑- eroding our economic and national security. Today, I am taking action to put a stop to these practices and revitalize the United States polysilicon sector," President Trump wrote in an overnight executive order.

The Trump administration's order is less a conventional tariff increase and more of a reset of the US solar-module pricing regime. The new framework, combining a 15% tariff with minimum import prices, could lift utility-scale module prices into the low-to-mid 40-cent-per-watt range from roughly 30 cents.

Analysts from several desks, including BMO Capital Markets, Truist Securities, Citi, and others, point to First Solar as the clear winner.

"We expect the immediate market reaction to favor FSLR given enhanced long-term pricing power and terminal value implications, while utility solar-exposed names including NXT, ARRY, SHLS and FLNC could face near-term pressure as investors reassess project economics and deployment costs," BMO analyst Ameet Thakkar wrote.

Thakkar noted, "In this report we analyze the structure and implementation of the new tariff framework, the implications for module pricing and domestic manufacturing economics, potential upside to FSLR valuation and ASPs, the 120-day implementation window, and our continued constructive view on NXT despite likely near-term volatility."

Moses Sutton at BNP Paribas outlined FSLR as the "biggest, long-awaited winner" and highlighted how a new "structural 'floor' for industry" is being created.

What other desks are saying (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Citi

• Analyst Vikram Bagri notes that the polysilicon tariffs are largely in line with expectations and sees upside for First Solar
• "For FSLR, the benefits are a minimum import price for poly/cells/ingots/wafers/modules, which may be adjusted at Commerce's discretion to reflect market conditions, a 15% ad valorem on downstream poly derivatives, application to warehoused inventory plus anti-stockpiling provisions"
• Notes that countries that adopt their own minimum import price may be able to claim favorable treatment for their exports to the US, which would be negative for US firms

Truist Securities

• Analyst Christopher Souther sees First Solar as the biggest beneficiary of the tariffs and notes that the company's module price is below the minimum import price
• "In our view, this further reinforces First Solar's competitive moat, as the company already benefits from a US-based manufacturing footprint, Section 45X tax credits, and existing trade protections"
• Notes that the exemption paths for US module manufacturers may reduce the benefit for First Solar in out years

Barclays

• Analyst Christine Cho sees the polysilicon tariffs raising the cost of imported modules to around $0.44 per watt
• "The Section 232 outcome is more positive for FSLR than we and the Street were expecting and would seem to support ASPs to move somewhere in the low to mid $0.40/w range"

In premarket trading, FSLR is up 4%, Enphase Energy +2%, Array Technologies +2%, SolarEdge Technologies +2%, and T1 Energy +6%. The Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) is up nearly 3%. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 10:10

Houston, We Have A (Data) Problem...

Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities,

Normally, you can find some parts of the job report that “fight” against the headline. That somewhere in the details is a potentially different narrative.

Maybe it’s because I’m lazy on a summer Friday, but difficult to see what it is in this report.

But let’s start with the most important point

Instead of worrying about Warsh, what he did or didn’t say, how often he might or might not say things, to who he may or may not speak to, maybe we should worry about making decisions based on garbage data?

As you know, I’ve argued for years that it seems insane that in this day and age, where we have real time data on almost every aspect of our lives, we are content to kind of stick a finger in the air, and take a wild stab at estimating jobs. I think the data source task force is the most important (and potentially useful thing Warsh has created). The data task force is too limited in scope, if anything.

Establishment headline is -23k. Estimate was 80k.

Revisions for past two months were -103k! Maybe the estimate would not have been for 80k, if the initial reports for the prior months reflected reality and didn’t need to be revised lower?

Not sure this is “good” news for the workers, but wage growth was anemic (even as the renewed fighting in the Middle East is pushing up the price of energy products).

The unemployment rate has dropped from 4.3% to 4.1% in the past two months. On the surface, maybe that is good. But the unemployment rate is based on the household survey which had a loss of 87k this month, which is “better” than last month’s loss of 507k jobs. The 4 month total number of jobs in the household survey is month than 600,000 lost jobs! The unemployment rate is only lower because the participation rate has dropped from 61.8% to 61.4% in two months (let’s not forget, this is occurring with record cap ex on data center/AI build).

Okay, now my “favorite” the birth/death model. I will admit I’m not sure how the seasonally adjusted birth/death model translates into a number of jobs in the establishment survey, but this “model” showed 235k jobs added by new businesses being formed. Maybe companies are being formed to take advantage of the AI/Data Center spend. It is in line with last July’s birth/death adjustment, so maybe it didn’t impact things. But I always struggle when “plugs” or “models” seem to be bigger than the actual numbers.

Honestly, I have no idea if today’s numbers are the aberration or whether it was what was originally reported, but that is the point!

How are we making decisions based on data that seems to be a wild guess (apologies to wild guesses)?

Sure, if there is no way to get better, more accurate, timely data, then we’d have to live with it. We had to live with carrier pigeons at one time.

I find it difficult to believe that a nation that put astronauts on the moon, cannot figure out a better way to calculate data that is so crucial to decision making!

So, yes, Houston, we have a problem, but the bigger problem isn’t today’s numbers, it is that we don’t really know what numbers are correct or not!

On the other hand, my view that we don’t see a hike this year looks better today, than it did a week ago (and that is with no “deal” in Iran, which any deal, will also help).

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 09:40

Islamic Society Sues City Over Rejection Of Mosque Proposal

Authored by Tom Gantert via The Epoch Times,

The Islamic Society of Tulsa has filed a federal lawsuit against the City of Broken Arrow, Oklahoma, and four individual city council members after the city denied its request to build a mosque and Islamic community center.

The suit, which was filed on Aug. 3, alleges the denial violated the U.S. Constitution, the federal Religious Land Use and Institutionalized Persons Act, and Oklahoma law by discriminating against Muslims.

The city of Broken Arrow said in an email to The Epoch Times that it does not comment on lawsuits. The city acknowledged on July 28 that the U.S. Department of Justice had started an investigation into the matter.

“The City Council and Administration are fully engaged with the DOJ in its investigation,” the city stated, adding it would have no further comment.

The DOJ’s Civil Rights Division is investigating whether Broken Arrow violated the Religious Land Use and Institutionalized Persons Act after denying the rezoning application for the Islamic Society of Tulsa.

According to the complaint, the Islamic Society of Tulsa bought about 15 acres of land in Broken Arrow in 2014 with the intention of building a mosque, a community center, and a small commercial development.

City planning staff concluded the proposal complied with the city’s comprehensive plan and recommended approval. The Broken Arrow Planning Commission also voted to recommend approval after a lengthy public hearing.

The lawsuit claims the proposal was rejected by the City Council after “a wave of bigoted opposition from members of the community and local politicians.”

Despite recommendations from city staff and the Planning Commission, the City Council voted 4–1 on Jan. 12 to deny both the rezoning request and the conditional use permit.

The lawsuit further alleges the city approved similar rezoning and permitting requests for Christian churches and commercial developments while allowing those applicants to address traffic and engineering issues later in the approval process.

The complaint seeks a court order allowing the project to proceed, a declaration that the city’s actions were unlawful, and monetary damages including attorneys’ fees.

It also notes the DOJ’s investigation into whether the city violated federal religious land-use protections.

Oklahoma Attorney General Gentner Drummond is asking the Trump administration to halt the DOJ investigation.

In a letter to President Donald Trump and acting U.S. Attorney General Todd Blanche, Drummond called the investigation “federal overreach” and said land-use decisions should be left to state and local officials.

Drummond also asked the DOJ to withdraw requests for records involving private citizens, require senior-level approval for any further investigative steps, and coordinate with the Oklahoma Attorney General’s Office before taking additional action against Oklahoma municipalities.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 09:20