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Anti-Trump GOP Governors Plot To Undermine President's Immigration Crackdown With Work-Visa Scheme

Two Republican governors with a long history of clashing with Donald Trump are working with Democrats on a plan to hand migrant workers state-issued work permits instead of deportation notices, a direct challenge to the president's immigration crackdown that the four laid out on camera. Utah Gov. Spencer Cox and Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt joined Democratic Govs. Wes Moore of Maryland and Matt Meyer of Delaware for a joint interview with Bloomberg, describing a shared position that has far more in common with the Democratic Party and the labor lobby than with the Trump administration's approach to the border.

Left to right: Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, Utah Governor Spencer Cox

The vehicle for that position is the National Governors Association's Task Force on Immigration Policy, which Stitt built after noticing a pattern among his colleagues. "The reason I set this task force up is because I realized by talking to my colleagues that they're having the same issues," Stitt told Bloomberg reporter Christina Ruffini. "Let's actually have the governors issue workforce permits."

That last line is the whole ballgame. The task force wants Congress to hand governors the discretion to issue migrant work permits at the state level, a proposal that treats illegal immigration less as a legal violation and more as a labor supply problem for agriculture, construction and hospitality. It resembles former President George W. Bush's immigration reform approach, which sent the message to illegal immigrants, "If you're doing a job an American won't do, you're welcome here, for a period of time, to do that job."

Cox framed the alliance as a breakthrough four decades in the making. "For 40 years, we've been trying to do immigration reform and nobody's ever been able to get it done," he said. "But what's different this time is that we have a secure border." He credited that border security to the current administration while working, in the same breath, to carve states out from under its enforcement arm. "We all care - Republicans and Democrats - about a secure border," Cox said, a sentiment that gets considerably murkier once the conversation turns to what happens to people already inside it.

Cox described a February meeting among the governors as almost startling in its unity. "We were together in February and having a conversation about immigration, and we were all shocked at the level of bipartisanship, cooperation, and agreement," he said. "We were really stunned that everybody had kind of the same opinions on what needed to be done." Bipartisan agreement among governors on loosening enforcement is not the reassurance Cox seems to think it is.

Ruffini asked the group for a show of hands on whether ICE and the Department of Homeland Security have been effective. Neither Cox nor Stitt raised one. Cox pointed to enforcement actions in Minnesota as a specific concern, citing "the violence and the deaths that we've seen" and calling the incidents "deeply problematic." Stitt was even more blunt about his overall assessment. "We're not using common sense right now," he said.

Stitt's example centered on a green card holder from Vietnam who has lived in Oklahoma City for 25 years. "We had a person from Vietnam that's been in Oklahoma City for 25 years, legally in the United States, with a green card, working at Hobby Lobby," he said. The man had self-deported after a marijuana arrest then returned to the country legally. "They've been a great citizen chasing the American dream, but they've been picked up for deportation now," Stitt said. Gov. Moore added an economic gloss to the argument, saying a deportation agenda focused on criminals ought to travel alongside pro-growth policy rather than replace it.

Neither Republican governor has a great relationship with Trump, and both have clashed with him politically in recent years, which explains their break with him on immigration enforcement.

The Trump administration clearly isn't on board. Trump won a second term in 2024 in part by promising to close a border that sat wide open for four years under Biden. Immigration has generally been the strongest issue for him, outperforming his approval numbers on the economy and foreign policy.

DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin set the tone from inside the administration at the same NGA gathering, sitting beside Stitt and offering his own verdict on the odds of any of this actually happening. "Is immigration reform possible? No," Mullin told the assembled governors. "Do you really need immigration reform? Yes, you do, but can we work with the system we have? Yes."

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 10:45

Musk Responds To French Green Leader's Demand That X Be Shut Down

Update (1100ET): Upon seeing this exclamation from the dismally-polling Green leader. Elon Musk took to X (the platform she demands be shutdown for too much free-speechifying) to make some demands of his own...

I demand that she be shut down for treason against France!

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 6, 2026

As Remix News detailed earlier, French Green leader Marine Tondelier has reiterated her calls for social media platform X to be temporarily shut down, claiming its owner Elon Musk is using it to interfere in French politics and promote Marine Le Pen ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

Tondelier, general secretary of the Ecologists and a declared presidential candidate, suggested that suspending X for one month would improve political debate in France.

“If X were to stop for a month, it would do a world of good for the French public debate,” she said, as cited by Libération.

She claimed the platform could not be treated merely as a question of freedom of expression or freedom of enterprise because it was controlled from the United States by an owner seeking to influence European politics.

“This tool is owned by someone based in the United States, with a supremacist ideology, who clearly wants to push Europe into total submission to the United States,” Tondelier said.

She also accused Musk of wanting Le Pen elected and argued that his intervention exposed what she described as the “hypocrisy” of the National Rally’s patriotism.

“The algorithm of this social network is rigged,” she claimed.

“The ‘ratings’ meant to indicate the veracity of posts are now a source of further fake news.”

Tondelier also complained that environmental claims she posts on the platform are routinely challenged and said female politicians face persistent cyberbullying.

In January last year, she said, “This network must be banned in Europe. Whether I leave it or not, it will still have an impact on the real world. It will contribute to destabilizing the next elections,” adding that X was a “source of suffering, as a politician and as a woman.”

Her comments followed Musk’s public endorsement of Le Pen last month.

Responding to an American account discussing her polling strength and the possibility of mass deportations under a National Rally government, Musk wrote, “She is France’s last hope.”

Despite the outburst, Tondelier remains a marginal contender in the presidential race.

Recent IFOP polling places her support at about 4 percent, with other surveys putting her between 3 and 5 percent.

Le Pen, by contrast, is polling at approximately 35 percent and is strongly positioned to reach the second round of the election.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 10:30

Hyperscaler Bond Spreads Blow Out After Google Shocks With Another $25 Billion Bond Offering

After tightening sharply following last week's (pre-Situational Awareness) rout which sent hyperscaler CDS to the widest on record, AI bond spreads are blowing out again this morning - with SpaceX bonds - which have quickly emerged as the fulcrum bond security of the AI world - plunging this morning on news that for the third time in a year, Alphabet which has emerged as the credit (both on and off balance sheet) nexus of the AI supercyle, is looking to raise another $25 billion from its latest US investment-grade bond offering, a deal that will again test investor appetite for AI-related debt following a July selloff when bond AI-linked bond spreads exploded to all time wides.

The offering, which will very likely be upsizied (just as the illl-fated SpaceX bond offering) will be Alphabet's third since November.

In February, the Google parent issued more than $30 billion in new debt, including multiple non-US tranches. The offering followed a similar bond issuance from November 2025, when Alphabet sold $25 billion in debt, quadrupling its long-term debt to $46 billion. Since then Google's debt has surpassed over $100 billion and is rising at an astronomic pace; one can only hope the rating agencies don't notice. 

According to Bloomberg, Alphabet is offering notes in as many as 10 parts, with maturities ranging from two to 40 years. Initial price talk for the longest-tenored tranche is a premium of about 1.55 percentage points above Treasuries. No final decision has been made on the size, according to people familiar with the matter, however it is likely that - as always - there will be excess demand leading to significant oversubscription, with the bond then sliding after it starts trading.

Virtually every bank is an underwriter on the offering which will need all the help it can get: Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo are managing the sale, Bloomberg said.

Alphabet’s offering comes one month after Amazon issued an identical amount of debt, and just two weeks after the company again raised its 2026 spending outlook, which triggered fresh worries about whether massive artificial-intelligence investments will pay off. Investor appetite for bonds to help fund capex cooled in July as Alphabet increased its forecast to as much as $205 billion, more than double 2025’s outlays.

Meanwhile, as the market finally started paying attention to good, old on-balance sheet debt, the flood of off-balance sheet continued with BlackRock last week selling $12.5 billion of bonds tied to a Meta data center SPV in Texas. Initial demand was very poor, following soft interest for an offering by Amazon.com.

Immediately afterward, bond spreads across the Hyperscaler sector blew out to record wides in the secondary market, as we reported on multiuple occasions. 

However, following the historic short squeeze in the past week (sparked by.... nobody really knows) sentiment improved again as August began, helped by gains in US Treasuries.

“We’ve had a few days now of positive reactions from investors across corporates and especially technology,” said Brett Kozlowski, portfolio manager at GW&K Investment Management. “But another large debt deal will still test the depth of that and be worth watching.”

Sure enough, after sliding by almost 20bps in the past week, hyperscaler spreads have already cut their gains in half after blowing out by almost 10bps since Tuesday, a move that is set to accelerate as even more debt comes to market.

 Alphabet, which sold more than $50 billion of debt in the first half of 2026, and Amazon have led the AI-infrastructure borrowing spree. Alphabet last tapped the US high-grade debt market in February, before selling bonds in Swiss francs, British pounds, euros, Canadian dollars and Japanese yen. It also issued nearly $85 billion of shares two months ago.

The explosive growth in CapEx is why Alphabet posted its first quarter of negative cash flow since its 2004 initial public offering.

The hope is that at some point, all this massive investment will lead to a surge in EBITDA. The only problem is what happens if nearly-free Chinese open-weight models end up dominating the market while US hyperscalers duke it out in the biggest spending spree since the Nuclear arms race. And, as we reported overnight, that's precisely what is happening. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 10:14

Federal Review Finds 90% Of Maine's Autism Support Services Lacks Justification

Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,

Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) Administrator Dr. Mehmet Oz revealed Tuesday that federal investigators have found widespread irregularities in Maine’s support services for adults with autism.

Speaking Tuesday during a Department of Justice anti-fraud press conference in Philadelphia, Oz said investigators have found that 90 percent of autism services provided by the blue state lacked justification.

“Yesterday I was in Maine,” Oz said. “We’re investigating home support services, just like you’re seeing here, for adults, in that case, who have autism.”

“We have massive increases that have grown to the kinds of numbers you could not imagine being able to show on a clipboard, with 90 percent of services billed and paid for—in Maine in particular—where there is no justifiable backup for it,” Oz said. “Nine out of ten services, you can’t justify they should have happened. It’s the opposite of what you’d normally expect.”

The Trump administration has been urging states to increase oversight of Medicaid autism services, and examine whether a massive surge of spending on a new therapy called “applied behavior analysis” is medically appropriate, Axios reported.

During the press conference Tuesday, state and federal prosecutors announced charges of 19 defendants in connection with a $4 million scheme to defraud government-run Medicare and Medicaid system in Pennsylvania.

Federal officials detailed several new anti-fraud initiatives, including “expanded Medicaid Strike Forces, new investigative toolkits for states and enhanced data analytics designed to identify suspicious billing patterns before taxpayer money is paid,” Maine Wire reported.

Oz did not identify the providers under review, specify the total amount of claims being examined or announce any criminal charges connected to Maine. He also did not allege that every unsupported claim constituted fraud. Instead, he said the findings demonstrate the need for significantly greater oversight of Medicaid-funded home support programs.

Nevertheless, his remarks represent a major escalation in the Trump administration’s examination of MaineCare spending.

Federal officials have spent months reviewing Maine’s administration of Medicaid-funded autism and developmental disability services. Earlier this year, federal auditors questioned tens of millions of dollars in payments involving rehabilitative and community support services while requesting additional records from the Mills administration concerning providers and billing practices.

Far-left Maine Democrat Senate candidate Troy Jackson’s health care platform is focused on passing a government run “Medicare for All” insurance system to replace the current system.

Oz said programs that were originally designed to help disabled Americans have increasingly become vehicles for fraud.

“We have no tolerance for anyone who invents hours, invents a disability, invents a workforce at the expense of people who depend on these programs,” Oz said. “And if you love these most vulnerable Americans, you should care as well.”

The CMS administrator told reporters that the COVID-19 pandemic was the catalyst for the explosion of fraudulent Medicaid schemes currently plaguing the country.

“What happened in 2020 that has catalyzed this?” Oz asked. “COVID appears to have unleashed massive fraud because criminals knew the federal government would not follow up on the money that was being sent out.”

The Trump administration, he said, has adopted an “all-of-government” strategy deploying the Department of Justice, the Department of Health and Human Services, the FBI, the Drug Enforcement Administration, the IRS Criminal Investigation Division and state attorneys general to identify and prosecute Medicaid fraud.

“They’re not just stealing money, they’re stealing our trust,” Oz said of the fraudsters. “And that’s a much more difficult thing to replace.”

At the close of the nearly two-hour long presser, Assistant Attorney General Colin McDonald delivered a stern warning to those defrauding government health care programs.

“The era of getting rich off the backs of our programs for our sick, elderly and disabled is over,” McDonald said. “Your time is up.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 09:20

Situational Awareness Returns With $400M Investment After Nearly Collapsing

Authored by Zoltan Vardai via CoinTelegraph.com,

Situational Awareness, the hedge fund founded by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, reportedly invested $400 million in a privately held company days after it nearly collapsed under margin calls.

The fund invested $100 million in the same unnamed company in July, Bloomberg reported Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter. 

The latest investment was completed on Tuesday.

Cointelegraph has approached Situational Awareness for comment.

Assets at Situational Awareness fell about 78% in July, as an AI-stock sell-off triggered margin calls from Wall Street lenders.

The fund sought fresh capital and considered selling stakes in private companies, according to the Financial Times.

“We took the steps that were necessary to fight another day,” Aschenbrenner told investors in a letter on Friday.

“But our fund must always be structured such that we can take a loss and fight another day. I will make it my mission to ensure that we learn the necessary lessons from this experience.”

The fund subsequently sold most of its public equity portfolio to Ken Griffin’s Citadel, allowing it to repay lenders and retain its private holdings.

*SITUATIONAL AWARENESS MAKES INVESTING RETURN WITH $400M BET

this time with 8x TRS leverage pic.twitter.com/kXY7MQa0Px

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 6, 2026

Situational Awareness had invested heavily in power and data centers supporting AI, including Bitcoin miners expanding into AI computing.

A May 18 filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission covering holdings as of March 31 showed about $1.11 billion in positions across seven Bitcoin mining stocks, including IREN, Core Scientific, Riot Platforms and CleanSpark.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 08:50

Initial Jobless Claims Remain Near 57-Year Lows

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time held below 200k again last week...

...basically hovering at its lowest since 1969...

Pennsylvania and New Jersey saw claims rise the most last week while North Carolina and Ohio saw the biggest decline...

Continuing jobless claims ticked up, just above 1.8 million Americans...

After ADP's disappointing job additions, it appears the 'low hire, no fire' economy is entrenched.

Will tomorrow's payrolls print confirm that?

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 08:40

The BoJ And The Fed Just Made Gold Obvious

Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via VonGreyerz.gold,

Between the market’s reaction to Warsh’s recent no-rate-hike announcement and the current disaster unfolding with the Japanese yen, the set-up for near-term “Uh-Oh” in stocks and bonds in general–and the longer-term wisdom in precious metals in particular– couldn’t be more obvious.

Stick to the Essential

Antoine de St. Exupery famously (and wisely) wrote that the “essential is invisible.”

In philosophical matters pertaining to the art of living, this phrase has great depth.

But in matters pertaining to market risk and economic forecasting, it will come as no surprise to anyone familiar with our views that the “essential lies in the bond market.”

As bonds fall in trust, demand and hence price, their yields then rise.

And these yields (the highest in decades) represent the true cost of sovereign debt, which we all know is beyond sustainability.

At $40T in comical, mismanaged and criminally negligent public debt, the last thing the USA needs today are rising yields at the long end of its sovereign bond market, especially with over $8T of those bonds facing a re-fi (at a much higher rate) in the next 12 months.

Right now, America pays $3B per day on just the interest expense of its public debt.

As I’ve said countless times: Spiking yields and hence spiking debt costs are like shark fins to policy makers drowning in a debt-storm of their own doing.

The collision of these rising yields and rising debt levels mathematically means more currency debasement will be engaged to inflate away Uncle Sam’s increasingly grotesque bar tab.

This also means gold’s anti-fiat role as a store of real rather than fiat value/money is just beginning to stretch its legs.

So, how do we know what’s coming for gold in such a global monetary sea-change?

That’s easy. In fact, Japan’s yen and the Fed’s Warsh just told us so.

What the Yen’s Summer Collapse Really Means

As for the yen, it just reached its weakest levels against the USD in four decades.

This Japanese currency fall is the direct result of decades of extreme money printing, repressed interest rates and a debt/GDP ratio that waters the eyes.

(Sound familiar?)

Japan’s latest finance minister (they come and go like melting snowflakes) tried to save their yen with $73B worth of currency support (thanks to a massive Japanese sale of USTs).

But that strategy clearly failed.

Equally unsuccessful was Tokyo’s attempt to raise interest rates to a whopping 1% in June (the highest levels seen since the 1990’s).

This was pathetic, especially given the fact that for my entire market career, Tokyo ran zero to even negative rates.

The Carry Trade Is Over

Of course, at zero to negative rates, Japan became THE go-to lender for the global shadow banking and corporate elites, who would happily borrow yen for nothing and then convert those yen into trillions of dollars for massive leverage in the S&P and NASDAQ.

The fancy lads called this the Japanese “carry trade.” It was an absolute boon for American stocks.

But folks, the Japanese banks are now cutting off that free money spigot.

The carry trade (which saw its first hiccups in August of 2024) is now over, and the ripple effects are swelling into tidal waves racing toward your 401Ks.

The Market Pain Is Just Beginning

If you haven’t already noticed, the NASDAQ just saw its worst July in decades, which had a lot to do with all the selling of tech stocks by Japanese firms, which are now bringing their money home in order to desperately yet realistically exploit the biggest currency arbitrage in decades.

After all, when the yen is at historical lows, what better time than now for Japan to cash in on stronger dollar-based stocks?

Unfortunately, the timing couldn’t be worse for American stocks and bonds, as Japan’s actions don’t exist in a vacuum.

When the BoJ raises rates and the carry trade ends in a backdrop of hedge funds closing their levered stock positions, those same masters of the Wall Street universe have no choice but to buy back yen to close their credit obligations.

In order to get this cash, those same fund managers (and many large corporate C-suites) must also sell a whole lot of U.S. stocks and USTs.

We are talking lots and lots of them.

This translates to a perfect storm of Japanese and global hedge funds simultaneously selling risk assets at the apex of an undeniable market bubble.

This is serious.

Not only will criminally negligent and AI-over-exposed tech stocks feel the selling pain, but an equally massive sell-off in USTs is converging this summer.

This means falling bond prices and yes, you guessed it: Spiking yields.

Ouch.

Once again (and as seen in March of 2020, fiscal year 2022, or Liberation Day of 2025), stocks and bonds are falling together rather than hedging each other’s risk.

As warned for years, the classic 60-40 stock-bond portfolio couldn’t be more useless as a modern risk hedge.

This is because bonds are no longer a safe haven in a backdrop of such an unprecedented and unsustainable sovereign debt profile.

This profile, of course, poses a problem for wordsmiths at the Fed, and Kevin Warsh’s words are worth translating from spin to reality.

Warsh Enters a Broken Stage

Unlike the Volcker era where U.S. public debt was measured in billions rather than trillions, Warsh, like Powell, can never fight inflation via rate hikes for the simple reason that DC’s bar tab can’t afford higher rates.

Any rate hikes to allegedly “fight” openly misreported inflation eventually just forces the Fed to expand/print more debased and mouse-clicked dollars to pay down the rate hike.

This is a nation within a fiscal dominance trap which renders any so-called anti-inflationary rate-hike policy inherently, well: Inflationary.

The parabolic rise in U.S. M2 money supply speaks for itself:

It was thus hardly any nail-biter that no rate hike was announced in July.

Translating Fed-Speak into Common Sense

What I found more entertaining, however, were the Fed Chairman’s platitudes at the press conference which came immediately after the announcement of unchanged rates.

In particular, I was fascinated by the following Warsh comments, namely:

“The FOMC, by a 9 to 3 vote, decided to maintain the target range of the Fed Funds Rate of 3.5 and 3.75%.”

“The economy is showing impressive resilience.”

“Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.”

Hmmm…

As always, one must congratulate these Fed lords for their impressive ability to effectively say the sky is green and the grass is blue with such confidence and regularity that it almost seems true.

What Warsh didn’t say is: 1) that inflation far outpaces the Fed Funds Rate; 2) the “impressive resilience” of our economy ignores record credit card delinquencies and car-loan repossessions which outpace the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, or the lowest reported reading ever measured at the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index; and 3) that we’ve seen over 15 months of consecutive downward revisions of his so called “job gains.”

In short, and with the calm (and haircut) of a media prompt-reader, Warsh managed to say three fictions in less than 30 seconds without changing expression.

This spin is nothing new at all to those familiar with Fed-speak.

By itself, it cannot explain why the DOW then fell by 1000 points and yields on the long end of the curve went moon-bound following the Warsh press conference.

Warsh Said the Quiet Part Out Loud

Such open and violent market reaction came from something else which Marsh said, and it’s worth repeating here because it amounts to a subtle confession of what we’ve been warning with blunt consistency, namely that the Fed will eventually lose control of the bond market.

Specifically, and at the beginning of the Warsh press conference, Warsh was directly asked why nine FOMC members (Warsh among them) did not vote to raise rates.

His response was nothing short of astounding when one reads between the lines:

“Rates are higher today than they were 42 days ago. Markets have made decisions because we stepped back in part from trying to influence those. Market judgements have moved up on what nominal rates are across the Treasury curve… Markets are reacting in real time. Monetary policy matters not by just what we say, or even what we do…These prices we see in financial markets is one of the many ways in which [monetary policy] effects the real economy”

Translated into real-speak, what Marsh really said boils down to this: “Rates are rising without the Fed having to raise them because the markets no longer trust our IOUs and are setting a risk premium of their own, which is outside our control.”

This is scary. But it’s also no surprise at all.

The Fed is Losing Control of the Bond Market

Eventually, the bond market itself (and not the Fed’s rate or balance sheet policies) will determine bond yields and hence debt pricing.

And that pricing (as measured by boring things like bond yields) is ripping fatally and uncontrollably north.

This rising cost of debt, driven by distrust of weaponized and over-indebted IOUs, in conjunction with massive waves of more sellers (think Japan above) than buyers of Uncle Sam’s debt, will only get worse.

This also means that stocks supported by cheap debt will tank, and bonds unloved by the world will do the same.

The Only “Solution” is Worse than the Cure

Unless, of course, the Fed steps in to control those yields with trillions of direct or indirect QE to purchase these objectively unloved bonds.

But this inevitable and essential “solution” for our openly dying bond market comes with a fatal cost—namely continued currency debasement as Uncle Sam sacrifices (debases) his ever-expanding dollar to save (pay for) his ugly IOUs.

This sacrificing of paper money to save over-stretched bonds is the oldest and most desperate trick in a long history of once-great nations facing a debt crisis and hegemonic turning point.

It All Comes Back to Gold

The bond market is indeed everything, and what it is telling you far more honestly than the American Fed or Japanese BoJ is that your fiat money is consistently losing absolute purchasing power in plain sight.

This explains why a deliberate fire-sale in precious metals was unleashed early in 2026 to allow the whales to accumulate real money (gold) while the masses stare at their tech positions (and losses).

As usual, Main Street is the last to get the memo on gold. They got shaken out with price manipulations and price headlines while the smiling whales bought the world’s most important asset at a discount.

This also means that if you measure your wealth in paper currencies rather than physical gold, you are being robbed in equally plain sight.

The Whales, of course, don’t care, and they don’t want you to know.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 08:25

Futures Flat As Tech Slides After Memory Stocks, Korea Tumble

US futures are mixed with S&P futures modestly higher offset by a slide in tech: as of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.1% while Nasdaq futures drop 0.5%, hit by a plunge in Sandisk (down 9% in pre-market), and rival Western Digital which tumbled 15%, after both companies reported earnings. AppLovin also slumped 16% after missing revenue estimates while DataDog tumbled as much as 18% after guidance wasn't strong enough, and pushed Nasdaq to session lows. Mag 7 stocks are mixed (AAPL +1.0% and GOOGL +0.7% are among the outperformers). Asian stocks declined, led by losses in heavyweight chipmakers following earnings reports from US peers that renewed concerns over the stretched rally in memory-related shares. European shares were more resilient and advanced for a 4th day on hopes of an Iran deal (that was supposed to happen two days ago) as strong earnings boosted sentiment, with WPP Plc leading gains in the media sector. Bond yields are 1-2bp higher. Commodity prices were mostly higher: base metals are all higher this morning; gold +0.6%, while silver -0.4%. Overnight, not many incremental updates on US/Iran, with investors waiting for the details of the Iran/Oman deal around the Strait of Hormuz.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher, offseting a plunge in chip/memory names (Apple +1.1%, Amazon +0.7%, Meta +0.5%, Alphabet +0.5%, Nvidia +0.6%, Tesla unchanged, Microsoft -0.6%)

• Albemarle (ALB) gains 3% after the chemicals company reported second-quarter adjusted earnings per share that beat the average analyst estimate on strong lithium prices.
• AppLovin (APP) drops 19% after the mobile-app marketing company reported revenue for the second quarter that was slightly below the average analyst estimate. The company’s forecast for adjusted Ebitda and adjusted Ebitda margin also came in below consensus expectations.
• Celsius (CELH) drops 17% after the energy drink maker’s adjusted EPS and revenue fell well short of Street expectations.
• Constellation Energy (CEG) rises 4% after the nuclear power plant operator boosted its adjusted operating earnings per share forecast for the full year.
• Datadog (DDOG) slumps 17% after the software company posted an adjusted gross margin for the second quarter that trailed the average analyst estimate.
• Duolingo (DUOL) falls 8% after the language-learning software company gave a revenue and bookings forecast for the third quarter that fell short of expectations.
• Figma (FIG) falls 15% after the creative software platform gave revenue guidance for the third quarter that disappointed Wall Street. The firm also posted a second-quarter operating margin that dropped from the first quarter.
• Fiserv (FISV) falls 9% after the fintech slashed its full-year profit outlook and posted quarterly earnings that fell short of analyst estimates as revenue slumped.
• Honeywell Aerospace (HONA) declines 14% after the aerospace and defense company reduced its outlook for the full year to reflect supply chain issues.
• HubSpot (HUBS) is down 23% after the maker of customer-relationship management software forecast revenue for the current quarter that fell short of the average analyst estimate.
• Sandisk (SNDK) is down 9% after the computer hardware company’s revenue forecast for the first quarter missed the average analyst estimate.
• Six Flags Entertainment (FUN) falls 3% after the amusement-park operator reported net revenue for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• SoundHound AI (SOUN) jumps 26% after the software company reported better-than-expected second-quarter revenue.
• Sunrun (RUN) drops 12% after the home solar company cut its guidance for full-year cash generation, citing factors including reduced volumes from affiliate channels.
• Warby Parker (WRBY) falls 4% after the eyeglass company’s second quarter sales trailed the consensus estimate.
• Western Digital (WDC) falls 16% after the computer hardware and storage company forecast revenue for the first quarter that missed the average analyst estimate at the midpoint. Analysts note the company’s performance lags that of peer Seagate.
• Zillow Group Inc. (Z) is down 11% after the online real estate platform provided revenue forecast for the third quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.

In other AI news, DeepSeek plans to implement a significant price increase across its AI services, an unusual shift from the disruptive Chinese player. OpenAI said the AI models behind the Hugging Face hack began working together to break out of their testing environment as early as May. And Meta Platforms said one of its AI models accessed the internet and hacked into an outside service’s systems during cybersecurity testing. In other corporate news, CME and FanDuel are scaling back a joint effort to take on prediction market startups. MercadoLibre shares are sliding in premarket trading as worries about the e-commerce giant’s spending plans are outweighing an estimate-beating quarter.

After big gains to start the week, stocks may be stuck in a holding pattern until Friday’s payrolls, while recent economic policy decisions are also causing some nervousness about US assets. AI concerns related to elevated capex, ROI and circular financing had dissipated in recent trading sessions, but seem to be back in focus; this is now a weekly thing with Risk On/Risk Off becoming AI Math on/AI Math off. SoftBank results showed a big investment gain on its Intel shares but muted gains in the value of its OpenAI investment and declines inside the Vision Fund portfolio. Microsoft is also making headlines, with disclosures showing it generates most of its AI revenue from OpenAI.

Sandisk and Western Digital both gave tepid revenue forecasts for next quarter, renewing concerns over the stretched rally in memory-related shares. The pair have been big contributors to S&P 500 gains this year, as we noted yesterday; both are sharply lower this morning, and this is a reminder how Wall Street analysts are zero signal and all noise: "Sandisk Corp PT Cut to $1,750 from $3,000 at Jefferies."

The semiconductor sector was also the focus in Asia as Korea’s Kospi Index fell 4.8% with SK Hynix Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co. leading losses. “Investors are increasingly asking what incremental catalysts are needed to remain in the Asia memory trade,” said Gary Tan, a portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments.

SpaceX, meanwhile, may be in for another volatile day as $101 billion worth of stock becomes available for trading. It’s the first lock-up expiry of a staggered nine-stage structure, designed in an effort to dilute the impact of the vast amount of shares locked up. SPCX shares edged higher in premarket trading after the company’s first quarterly earnings report since its listing triggered a 14% slide.

The pause in the tech-led rally comes as investors reassess valuations after AI-related shares rebounded from last month’s selloff. Traders are also focused on Friday’s US non-farm payrolls data, which is expected to show a strengthening jobs market, as they look for clues to the Federal Reserve’s policy path.

Meanwhile, Brent crude held at around $80 per barrel after Iran said it reached an agreement with Oman on a proposed shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, raising the prospect of energy flows resuming through the critical waterway. But a lasting US-Iran deal that would help ease inflation and upward pressure on Treasury yields remains elusive, with President Donald Trump saying on Wednesday he would “see what happens” in ongoing negotiations. Tied to that perhaps, gold is extending its rise after the biggest jump in six months to touch $4,300/oz. Comex copper futures climbed to a record, tracking the push to reopen Hormuz, as gold had.

In macro data, tomorrow’s payrolls report “feels binary,” writes Bloomberg Macro Strategist Skylar Montgomery Koning. Another weak print boosts the case for doves, but a strong figure indicates June was an anomaly and brings expectations for the next hike forward.

“Until a more positive development in the Middle East is confirmed, and ahead of tomorrow’s important US employment data, markets have taken a wait-and-see stance,” said Karl Steiner, head of analysis at SEB. “This is reflected in the stock market development, a fairly unchanged oil price and small movements in the US 10-year Treasury yield.”

In politics, President Trump is preparing tariffs to slap minimum prices on imported polysilicon in a bid to boost domestic production of both the material and the chips and solar panels that it is used to make. The plans may materialize as soon as Thursday with levies being pitched at around 15%.

In hedge fund news, a spate of well-known funds reported steep losses in July as AI shares tumbled. TMT hedge funds lost an unprecedented 10% in July as they were forced to deleverage and liquidate positions as the AI trade lost momentum, according to JPMorgan strategists, citing preliminary data from analytics firm PivotalPath. One of the hardest hit, Situational Awareness, has already made its return to investing with a $400 million bet on a privately-held firm. Elsewhere in hedge funds, a slew of major hedge funds have had their information systems targeted by hackers in recent days. Point72 informed investors about the attack on Wednesday, while there were attempts to infiltrate Millennium Management, Two Sigma and Citadel too.

Fed’s Daly and Cook both spoke after the bell on Wednesday. Mary Daly said she supported the central bank’s decision to keep rates on hold, but warned of the possibility that high inflation is a broader problem that could require more aggressive action. Lisa Cook repeated a message that she is ready to raise rates if inflation doesn’t slow.

European shares advanced for a fourth straight day as strong earnings boosted sentiment, with WPP Plc leading gains in the media sector. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was 0.5% higher as of 11 a.m. in London. Spain’s Ibex 35, Italy’s FTSE MIB and France’s CAC 40 were also trading at new peaks. Germany’s DAX edged higher after factory orders rose by more than analysts forecast in June, another sign that a long-awaited recovery in Europe’s biggest economy may finally be taking hold. Media shares were the best performers as WPP soared the most since its 1995 debut after the advertising agency reported its turnaround efforts are gaining momentum. Among more than 30 companies reporting earnings today, Deutsche Telekom AG climbed 5.9% after Europe’s biggest phone carrier raised its share buyback program by as much as €3 billion ($3.5 billion). Banco BPM SpA gained 5.3% as it reported net income for the second quarter that surpassed estimates. Its Chief Executive Officer Giuseppe Castagna said the Italian lender would consider a tie-up with Credit Agricole SA. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:

• WPP shares soar as much as 30%, marking their biggest intraday advance on record, after the advertising agency reported a smaller-than-expected decline in organic sales in 2Q
• Deutsche Telekom shares rose as much as 5.9% after the German carrier boosted its share buyback program by up to €3 billion ($3.5 billion), a move analysts say reduces the risks of the firm using excess cash to buy out minority shareholders in T-Mobile US
• Hikma Pharmaceuticals shares jump as much as 11%, the most since September 2022, after the drugmaker reported better-than-expected sales and earnings for the first half-year
• SBM Offshore shares rally as much as 9.3%, the biggest jump since April 2025, after the service provider to the offshore oil and gas industry topped expectations in the first half
• Glanbia shares jump as much as 9.3%, their biggest jump in over three months, after the nutrition company delivered earnings ahead of expectations in the first half and improved its guidance for the full year
• Serco shares rise as much as 6.3%, the most since December, after the British outsourcing services provider increased its share buyback program by £75 million
• Renk shares rise as much as 7% after the German gearbox maker reported order intake for the first half-year that beat the average analyst estimate
• TP ICAP shares fall as much as 7.1% after an earnings beat and an extended buyback proved unable to sustain the stock’s strong performance this year
• Scout24 shares slide as much as 9%, the most since December 2021, as a lack of momentum in customer subscriptions overshadowed an in-line second quarter result at the online real estate platform
• Siemens shares fall as much as 6.4% as analysts see results in the Digital Industries business weighing on sentiment amid high expectations for the company’s earnings overall
• Adecco shares fall as much as 7.8% following second-quarter results, as the human resources provider and temporary staffing firm is likely to see continued gross margin pressure as well as weak industry sentiment
• Tritax Big Box shares fall as much as 5.2%, the biggest intraday drop since March, after the UK REIT raised £350 million through an equity placing that analysts said is dilutive in the near-term
• Aurubis shares fall as much as 8.4%, the most in a year, after the copper smelter announced a one-year delay to a new American smelting complex

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks declined, led by losses in heavyweight chipmakers following earnings reports from US peers that renewed concerns over the stretched rally in memory-related shares. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.2%, with SK Hynix, Samsung, TSMC and Kioxia among the biggest drags. South Korea’s Kospi slumped 4.6% with notable losses also in Hong Kong and Japan’s Nikkei. Memory and storage stocks mostly dropped after results from Sandisk and Western Digital that weren’t strong enough to impress investors. Last month’s brutal losses in chip stocks had pared somewhat over the past week, but the latest disappointment once again spurred dumping of tech versus buying of more defensive consumer and health shares. Here Are the Most Notable Movers

• Chip giant SK Hynix Inc. suffered its second short-lived share plunge in about a week, raising fresh questions about trading volatility on South Korea’s alternative stock exchange.
• AMP shares climbed to their highest level since 2019 after the wealth manager reported a surge in first-half net income, and announced additional share buyback.
• Nitto Boseki shares plunged as much as 19%, the most since March 9, after the glass product maker’s quarterly earnings presentation fell short of investors’ lofty expectations.
• Honda shares gained as much as 2.3% in Tokyo trading Thursday after the carmaker raised its full-year profit target by around 30%, helped by tailwinds from the weak yen. First-quarter profit also beat market estimates.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was steady while US 10-year yields were 1bp higher at 4.62%. The dollar traded in a narrow range versus most major peers with traders waiting to see how US payroll data on Friday may impact the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. “USD may get a knee-jerk bounce if the data surprises,” said Philip Wee, senior currency strategist at DBS Bank. Challenger jobs and initial jobless claims data due later on Thursday may provide insight into the US labor market. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.1% with the move higher running out of steam as USD/JPY remains stuck below 158. Key markets:

• USD/JPY little changed at 157.77 (range 157.56 - 157.85)
• EUR/USD little changed at 1.1545 (range 1.1542 - 1.156)
• GBP/USD little changed at 1.3461 (range 1.3455 - 1.3473)

“Improved market sentiment in the Gulf has lent the dollar some weakness, but the greenback is still counting on very stable Fed rate expectations,” ING Bank NV strategists including Francesco Pesole wrote in a note. “The proximity to tomorrow’s US payrolls could favor a wait-and-see approach and limit FX moves today.”

In rates, treasuries are a touch lower. Yields are flat to up 2bps across the curve. Treasuries hold small losses as oil resumes rising, with an Iran-Oman agreement to partially reopen the Strait of Hormuz under review.  Treasury yields cheaper by 1bp to 2bp with curve spreads little changed; 10-year is around 4.65%, cheaper by 3bps with bunds and gilts in the sector outperforming slightly. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far. Nine borrowers priced a combined $18 billion Wednesday, lifting weekly volume to more than $43 billion. Issuers paid about 2bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 3.6 times covered. Focal points of US session include weekly jobless claims with July employment data ahead Friday.

Global bond and currency investors are debating if it’s time to dust off last year’s “Sell America” trade Bloomberg reports, after a flurry of economic-policy decisions out of Washington over the past two weeks.

In commodities, energy prices have been choppy with Brent struggling to hold above the $80/bbl handle. In precious metals gold is extending its rise after the biggest jump in six months to touch $4,300/oz. Spot gold is up 0.7%, while silver loses 0.2%. Comex copper futures climbed to a record, tracking the push to reopen Hormuz, as gold had. Bitcoin is down 0.1%. 

Today's US economic data calendar includes 2Q preliminary productivity and unit labor costs and weekly jobless claims (8:30am) and June wholesale inventories (10am). Fed speakers scheduled include St. Louis Fed President Musalem at 5:30pm.

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• President Trump has spoken repeatedly with Kevin Warsh since he became chairman of the Federal Reserve, according to people familiar with the matter, maintaining a line of communication between a president and a central bank chief that departs from recent precedent. WSJ
• Kevin Warsh is set to stick to his stripped-back communications style even after the Federal Reserve chair’s decision to offer scant details of his strategy on interest rates fuelled a powerful sell-off in Treasury bonds: FT
• AI data centers are putting unexpected strain on power infrastructure, with rapid demand swings causing batteries, generators and cooling systems to wear out faster than expected. BBG
• OpenAI said the AI models behind the Hugging Face hack secretly communicated for months before escaping their testing environment. Separately, Meta disclosed one of its AI models hacked into another service’s system during safety testing. BBG
• DeepSeek plans to implement a significant price increase across its AI services, an unusual shift from the disruptive Chinese player that has put pressure on US and domestic rivals. DeepSeek's decision to raise prices could be an inflection point in China's AI market, where other top players have followed the company's playbook in offering low-cost and open-source services. BBG
• China launched a formal security review of products sold in the country by US technology firm Palo Alto Networks Inc.(PANW), ramping up pressure on the company months after accusing it of harboring links to intelligence services. BBG
• Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix face growing calls from investors wanting a greater share of excess cash via dividends or buybacks, after the pair provided scant detail on capital returns when reporting AI-driven record profit. RTRS
• Softbank disclosed a smaller-than-expected decline in net income, lifted by a boost from its stake in Intel. BBG
• Trump tells donors, ‘We need to elect JD,’ as vice president weighs his future. WaPo
• Mary Daly said she supported last week’s decision to hold rates but warned that high inflation may be a broader problem requiring more aggressive action. Lisa Cook repeated that she’s ready to hike if inflation doesn’t slow. BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mostly lower following a similar performance stateside, where the Dow extended on its record levels, but the Nasdaq underperformed amid weakness in communication stocks, while the tech sector dragged overnight and tariff tensions resurfaced. ASX 200 climbed to a fresh record high with mining, materials and resources leading the advances, while trade data also showed a surprise surplus and a rebound in exports. Nikkei 225 retreated amid chip-related weakness and with Kioxia among the worst hit. KOSPI underperformed amid tech selling and as recent volatility continued to dent investor sentiment, with SK Hynix shares down about 8%, and had suffered another pre-market flash crash in which its shares dropped by the daily limit of 30% on the Nextrade bourse before ending the pre-market session down 2%. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed, with insurers pressured after Chinese tax authorities began levying personal income tax on returns of offshore insurance policies, while trade frictions continued to resurface after MOFCOM announced it would strengthen drone export controls to the US and will impose countermeasures on six US entities, as well as take countermeasures against US compliance-testing firms

Top Asian News

• Japanese PM Takaichi said a return to 8% food tax after two years isn't a hike, and a return to 8% food sales tax that will be needed for market trust, adding the benefit of a new tax credit system will exceed the tax cut.
• Japan and US companies, potentially joined by the UAE and other investors, plan to invest about JPY 2tln in Japan's largest AI data centre project, according to Nikkei.
• PBoC said it plans to expand yuan offshore market and explore expanding the central bank’s macroprudential and financial stability roles. PBoC is also exploring to boost cross-border yuan use.

European bourses are broadly higher. The FTSE MIB is outperforming, while the AEX and DAX 40 lag. Chip names are weighing on the AEX, and Siemens' earnings (disappointing FY sales guidance raise) are weighing on the DAX 40. Outside of earnings, not much in terms of a clear driver as markets await an announcement regarding the reopening of Hormuz. Sectors have a positive bias. Media leads, supported by strong WPP (+22.5%) earnings (Q2 operating profit beat estimates). Telecoms and Consumer Products & Services round out the sector outperformers. Basic Resources is the sector laggard, paring back some of Wednesday's gains, followed by Real Estate and Tech.

Top European News

• Swedish CPIF YoY Prel (Jul) Y/Y 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 1.3%); ex-energy 0.6% (prev. 0.4%).
• Swedish CPIF MoM Prel (Jul) M/M -0.3% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 0.3%); ex-energy 0.4%.
• Swedish Inflation Rate YoY Prel (Jul) Y/Y 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.7%).
• Swedish Inflation Rate MoM Prel (Jul) M/M -0.3% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 0.4%).
• EU Retail Sales MoM (Jun) M/M -0.3% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%).
• EU Retail Sales YoY (Jun) Y/Y 0.7% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. 1.6%).
• German Factory Orders MoM (Jun) M/M 3.1% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 1.9%).
• Spanish Industrial Production YoY (Jun) Y/Y 1.1% (Prev. 3.4%); M/M -0.7% vs Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 1.2%).

FX

• G10s mostly weaker against the Buck; SEK outperforms after hotter than expected inflation, Antipodeans lag amid the general risk tone.
• USD lacks direction, remaining just below 100.00 as it has done since the beginning of the week. Newsflow is light and markets still anticipate confirmation of an Iran-Oman agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, alongside the potential US-Iran Hormuz agreement; updates which, on the face of it, could pressure the Buck, though are largely expected by markets with Brent down double digits on the week. The likely next catalyst, aside from any potential re-escalation, will be the labour market data ahead of NFP on Friday. To remind, a soft ADP failed to spur a USD reaction. Fed Hawk Musalem is slated to speak and likely to stick alongside the hawkish remarks seen from Kashkari, Cook and Daly on Wednesday.
• EUR flat against the Buck with bloc-specific catalysts light ahead of US NFP on Friday, which will likely dictate price action. For now, EUR will likely sit within its recent 1.1540-1.1550 range after failing to breach 1.1560 overnight with a lack of newsflow.
• Swedish inflation cooled, albeit at a slower rate than expected. The hotter-than-expected print (vs. consensus and Riksbank fcst.) was sufficient to spark ~0.2% bid in the SEK against both the EUR and the USD, though not against NOK. EUR/SEK fell from just below 10.96 to a 10.93 base. While firmer than Riksbank had forecast, it likely endorses rather than changes the current path for rates, with markets fully assigning a 25bps hike by year-end. Both ING and Nordea maintain their view for year end, for unch. and one hike respectively.

Fixed Income

• Fixed benchmarks are in the red after starting the morning on the front foot amid initial energy pressure. In a similar playbook to Wednesday morning, the pickup in energy in the last few hours has placed modest pressure on fixed, which now finds itself lower across the board.
• For USTs, the losses are only a few ticks in magnitude, at a 108-26+ base. Ahead, we have a packed docket of data, before Friday’s Payrolls, and Fed speak. The latter point is increasingly interesting given the hawkish tone from some officials at, and since, the dissent seen in July. Today, Musalem (2028), who typically resides on the hawkish side of things, partakes in a moderated event.
• Bunds peaked at 125.36 overnight, firmer by 13 ticks. Since, as above, it has moved into the red and currently posts downside of 13 ticks at a 125.12 trough. The German-specific docket is light, but EGBs generally have to digest a decent amount of supply from France and Spain, which is concentrated around the 2036 area and will potentially be adding to the bearish bias across EGBs into the taps. Both auctions went well, with strong demand for the Spanish tap, while the 10yr French auctions topped the 3x b/c mark.
• Gilts directionally in-fitting, with losses of 28 ticks and as is typically the case they underperform during the energy-led move at this point. Specifics for the UK light, and may well continue to be for the near-term, as Parliament remains in recess until September 1st and the extended hold narrative for the BoE remains.
• France sells EUR 12.495bln vs exp. EUR 10.5-12.5bln 1.25% 2036, 3.70% 2036, 3.80% 2037 & 0.50% 2044 OAT.
• Spain sells EUR 5.315bln vs exp. EUR 5-6bln 2.60% 2031, 3.00% 2033, 3.40% 2036 Bono & EUR 0.728bln vs exp. EUR 0.25-0.75bln 2.05% 2039 I/L Bono.
• Japan sells JPY 455.8bln 30-yr JGBs; b/c 3.86x (prev. 4.55x), average yield 3.952% (prev. 3.993%), Tail in price 0.21 (prev. 0.04).

Commodities

• Crude prices swing between gains and losses with initial upside amid a lack of Iran deal newsflow whilst some supply-side headlines came into focus alongside overnight shipping strikes. Ukrainian President Zelensky says Ukraine struck Bashneft-Novoil (~150k BPD) and Slavneft-Yanos (300k BPD) refineries (the latter being one of Russia’s largest oil-processing facilities), two Russian patrol boats and shadow fleet vessels in long-range attacks aimed at curbing Moscow’s oil revenues, whilst large smoke plumes and at least four apparent fires were seen at the Yaroslavl refinery. Thereafter, renewed downside was seen on source reports around the Iran-Oman Hormuz framework agreement, although losses are limited until confirmation from Iran. WTI Sep’26 trades in a USD 74.57-76.04/bbl range (vs yesterday’s USD 74.24-76.70/bbl), while Brent Oct'26 trades in a USD 78.92-80.35/bbl (vs yesterday’s 78.11-80.95/bbl).
• Dutch TTF is similarly choppy but currently up around 3% near EUR 54/MWh.
• Metals are mostly firmer as the energy complex trades choppy in a narrow range, while DXY yesterday fell back under its 100 DMA (99.729) for the second time this week. Furthermore, growing expectations of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have eased energy-driven inflation fears. Spot gold adds to yesterday’s gains and trades around the middle of a USD 4,245-4,304/oz range. 3M LME copper sits towards the top of a USD 14,053.00- 14,359.00/t.
• Saudi Arabia sets September Arab Light crude OSP for Asia at USD 2/bbl discount to Oman/Dubai average; To the US at ASCI +3.60/bbl; To NW Europe at ICE Brent settlement -2.15/bbl.
• China's CMRG has reportedly told some steel mills to stop talks with Rio Tinto (RIO LN) from shipments from September, according to sources.
• DRC reportedly bans exports of Copper and Cobalt concentrate, according to sources citing an official order.

Central Banks

• Fed's Cook (voter) said she supported holding rates steady at the last FOMC meeting while waiting for more data. She said it may yet turn out that the Fed does not need to raise rates but is ready to raise rates if the disinflation trend does not return. Added that there are reasons to believe inflation levels can cool but consumer mood tied to a number of factors including high inflation has soured.
• Fed's Daly (2027 voter) said tariffs, energy and AI shocks caused an uptick in inflation, but noted some evidence that impacts of tariffs are beginning to fade on inflation. If the Middle East war ends, it should help lower inflation. Fed is facing different types of risks when it comes to setting rate policy, while she is completely supportive of holding rates steady in July and noted Fed still needs to gather data to set future policy move.
• Brazil Central Bank cut the Selic Rate by 25bps to 14.00%, as expected, reaffirming serenity and cautiousness in conducting monetary policy.

Geopolitics: Iran

• US President Trump said he'd rather make a deal with Iran and reiterated the US was set for the biggest attack since World War II against Iran, but they called and we're talking, while he added they respect us.
• US VP Vance said negotiations with Iran will take some time and that talks with Iran were 'messy', but will land in a 'good' place for the US.
• Iran and Oman have agreed on the broad framework for Strait of Hormuz reopening talks, Al Arabiya sources report. An announcement could come in days but the agreement still needs the approval of Iran's National Security Council. The proposed agreement regarding Hormuz extends for 60 days and aims to resume navigation. Ships entering the Strait of Hormuz will use the shipping lane closest to Iran while ships departing from Hormuz will use the maritime passage closest to Oman. The proposed agreement regarding Hormuz does not include imposing passage fees or services on ships and after the approval of the Hormuz agreement, the parties will return to the memorandum of understanding and activate.
• Indirect contacts between the US and Iran have entered the final stage, according to Al Arabiya sources.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi's visit to Pakistan is expected by the end of the week or early next week, according to Al Arabiya sources.
• Pakistani Foreign Ministry said Oman played a key role in Strait of Hormuz talks as diplomatic efforts continue toward a comprehensive and sustainable solution, Al Hadath reported, and that efforts to resolve the Hormuz issue continue.
• Yemeni military source said Red Sea operations target Saudi ships and oil tankers and "reduce the options for manoeuvring for the Saudi regime". The source also dismissed Saudi claims over the Indian cargo ship sinking, Al-Akhbar reported.
• UKMTO said it received a report of an incident 9 nautical miles southeast of Kumzar, Oman, with the master of a tanker reporting hearing two explosions whilst transiting the Strait of Hormuz, although crew and vessel are safe.
• Israeli forces strike Burj el-Shamali in southern Lebanon, according to Al Mayadeen.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine struck Bashneft-Novoil (~150k BPD) and Slavneft-Yanos (300k BPD) refineries, two Russian patrol boats and shadow fleet vessels in long-range attacks aimed at curbing Moscow’s oil revenues.
• Air raid alerts issued in Kyiv and multiple regions, according to Ukrainian media.

Geopolitics: Other 

• Japan's MoD said there is no longer any impact on the surrounding areas of Japan, following the North Korean missile launch.

US event calendar

• 8:30 am: Aug 1 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 205k, prior 197k
• 8:30 am: Jul 25 Continuing Claims, est. 1789k, prior 1782k
• 10:00 am: Jun F Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

After an initially strong run, the week’s equity rally began to run out of steam by the close yesterday, with the S&P 500 (-0.17%) finishing just shy of the previous day’s record high, whilst the Stoxx 600 (+0.04%) just about edged up to another all-time high. That came despite a slew of strong corporate earnings and Iran saying that it has reached agreement with Oman on a proposed route through the Strait of Hormuz. While the timing of any Hormuz re-opening is still uncertain, oil prices are slightly down this morning, while Treasury yields are also dipping slightly after being little changed yesterday amid a batch of mostly solid US data. Meanwhile, a more cautious tech mood has solidified in Asia hours overnight with the KOSPI (-4.18%) and Hang Seng (-1.75%) retreating. NASDAQ futures (-0.13%) are also down this morning even as those on the S&P 500 (+0.16%) are edging higher.

Starting with the Hormuz story, yesterday brought another step forward after Iran said an agreement with Oman had been reached on a proposed shipping route through the Strait and that a joint statement was now in the final drafting stage. However, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister also said that this would represent a “temporary route” for the next 2-4 months and would “not mean the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz”. Iranian state media also reported that reopening Hormuz would be contingent “on a change in US behaviour”, perhaps referring to Tehran’s demands that the US lifts its naval blockade.

Markets have seen plenty of false dawns throughout this conflict, and while the detail is becoming more concrete, attention is now shifting from whether an agreement can be reached to what the final arrangements will look like, including unresolved questions around whether Iran will eventually be permitted to levy tolls on vessels using the Strait. Meanwhile, President Trump sounded somewhat ambivalent on deal prospects last night, saying he will “see what happens” in ongoing negotiations with Iran, after having suggested on Tuesday that a deal could be announced within 48 hours.

Markets nevertheless continue to lean towards a positive outcome, although much of the good news now appears priced in. Brent crude edged up +0.11% to $79.45/bbl, whilst WTI fell by -0.73% to $75.22/bbl. European natural gas futures dropped -6.29%, extending one of their sharpest declines of the year and leaving them down -13.3% over the past week. Brent crude is -0.38% this morning.

With oil moving mostly sideways, the 2yr Treasury yield declined by -1.0bps to 4.18%, whilst the 10yr was unchanged at 4.61%. Those muted moves came as the Treasury Department announced quarterly refunding of $125bn, in line with expectations, whilst maintaining guidance that auction sizes would be unchanged for at least the next several quarters.

The slight decline in front-end yields also came as pricing of a September Fed rate cut eased from 58% to 54%, the lowest this has been since the more hawkish signal sent back at Warsh’s first FOMC meeting on June 12. In terms of the latest Fedspeak, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, who dissented in favour of a hike at the July meeting, said that “now is the time to start slowly” raising rates. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Cook sounded more conditional on the potential need for hikes, saying that “If I do not see signs of continued disinflation soon, I am prepared to act”.

The modest pull back in Fed hike pricing came alongside a mostly resilient set of US economic releases. We did see a bit of softening in the labour market signal, with the ADP report showing employment growth of 44k in July (vs 65k expected) ahead of tomorrow’s payrolls report. Whilst slightly softer, it remains consistent with a labour market that is broadly stable. And the latest ISM services survey showed the employment component fell to 47.4 in July (vs 51.2 expected).  However, while this weighed on the headline ISM services reading (54.1 vs 54.5 expected), the other details of the release were stronger and more inflationary. New orders increased to 57.2 (vs 55.9 expected) and prices paid jumped to 70.3 (vs 65.0 expected).

Taking a broader view, the US very much remained an outperformer in this week’s PMI and ISM releases. Amongst major economies, only Switzerland is currently registering both stronger services activity and stronger services price pressures. It is therefore difficult to argue that pressure on the Fed to tighten policy disappears before September. The comments from ISM respondents reinforced that message. Healthcare firms reported stronger-than-expected patient volumes, revenues and hiring conditions. Banking respondents continued to point to healthy commercial demand. Wholesale trade described activity as “more robust than expected” despite broader headwinds. At the same time, concerns around rising input costs remained widespread, particularly around fuel, labour, freight and utility equipment. Taken together, it remains a story of resilient activity and lingering inflation pressures.

Across the Atlantic, although PMI levels are lower, much of Europe now finds itself broadly back where it was before the Iran shock with the final July composite PMI revised marginally higher (52.0 vs 51.9 expected) despite the pickup in energy prices in late July. This PMI level is consistent with GDP growth of around +0.25% q/q if sustained through the quarter. Overall, the survey data point to a strengthening in underlying growth momentum and suggest the Euro Area economy has remained resilient despite the recent energy shock.

Amid the more mixed data and oil backdrop, equities struggled to maintain the strong momentum that had brought them to new record highs. The S&P 500 eased back by -0.17%, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped -0.83% following its recent outperformance. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (-1.40%) also gave back some recent gains, though it is still up +6.17% so far this week. Sentiment was not helped by AMD (-7.04%), whose guidance failed to meet some of the market’s more optimistic expectations, whilst SpaceX (-13.61%) also slid following its results the previous evening.

That said, the broader AI story remains firmly intact. Nvidia (+3.43%) continued to benefit from positive commentary around its next-generation Rubin architecture and after SpaceX said during its earnings call on Tuesday night that it would exclusively use Nvidia AI chips. Elsewhere, Eli Lilly (+4.86%) rose after reporting results ahead of expectations, supported by continued strength in demand for its GLP-1 portfolio.

One of the more interesting AI stories yesterday came from the Wall Street Journal, which reported that Jeff Dean, Google’s chief scientist and one of the most influential engineers in the company’s history, is leaving after 27 years to launch a new AI-focused research company. Dean was Google’s 30th employee, helped build Google Brain, led development of its TPU chips and has sat at the centre of the company’s AI strategy for much of the last decade. He is being joined by several other prominent Google researchers, including key contributors to AlphaFold and advanced mathematical reasoning systems.

Alphabet will remain an investor and provide computing capacity to the venture, but the move nevertheless highlights how intense competition for elite AI talent has become. It also points to what could be the next frontier for AI. Rather than building better chatbots or consumer applications, the new company aims to automate the scientific discovery process itself across machine learning research, hardware design, drug discovery and clean energy. For markets, it is another reminder that the AI investment cycle is evolving rapidly beyond software and increasingly into scientific research, engineering and real-world innovation. Alphabet shares fell -4.03% following the news.

Otherwise, Asian equity markets struggled overnight amidst a more cautious tech mood, not helped by underwhelming guidance from US chipmakers Sandisk and Western Digital Corp after the US close, with their shares sliding by around -8% and -12% respectively in extended trading. The Kospi (-4.18%) is leading the decline, dragged by chipmaker heavyweights SK Hynix (-6.68%) and Samsung Electronics (-4.55%). The Nikkei 225 (-1.06%), Hang Seng (-1.75%) and CSI 300 (-0.42%) are also down this morning. The S&P/ASX 200 (+0.37%) remains the outperformer, breaking another record high as I type. In currency markets, the yen (-0.03%) is also little changed at 157.71 against the USD this morning.

In Europe, the performance was mixed yesterday. The Stoxx 600 (+0.04%) and CAC 40 (+0.03%) both edged to fresh all-time highs, whilst the DAX (-0.29%) and FTSE MIB (-0.18%) slipped modestly lower.

European sovereign markets saw yields mostly drift higher. The 10yr bund yield edged up +0.4bps, while 10yr OATs (+1.7bp) and BTPs (+1.8bp) saw slightly larger increases. ECB rate hike expectations for September rose to 84% from 79% the previous day amid the resilient data.

Finally, with Fed rate cuts being dialled back, gold rose +4.19%, its largest daily gain since February. Gold prices are another +0.26% higher at $4,258/oz overnight, though they remain about -20% below the levels reached at the start of the Iran war in early March. The dollar (-0.18%) extended its decline for a third straight day.

To the day ahead now, economic data releases include US Q2 nonfarm productivity, unit labour costs, June wholesale trade sales, initial jobless claims, UK July construction PMI, Germany June factory orders, France Q2 wages, Italy June industrial production, Eurozone June retail sales, Canada July Services PMI and Sweden July CPI. We will also receive the ECB’s latest Economic Bulletin.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 08:10

Datadog Crashes Most On Record As 2Q Gross Margin Disappoints Despite Forecast Boost

Shares of cloud-monitoring and security company Datadog crashed the most on record in premarket trading in New York, as stronger-than-expected second-quarter results and an upgraded full-year profit and revenue outlook still failed to satisfy the market's high expectations. 

Datadog now expects full-year adjusted earnings of $2.50 to $2.54 a share, up from $2.36 to $2.44 and above the $2.42 Bloomberg Consensus. Revenue is projected at $4.45 billion to $4.47 billion, compared with its previous forecast of $4.30 billion to $4.34 billion.

Full-Year Forecast:

• Sees adjusted EPS $2.50 to $2.54, saw $2.36 to $2.44, estimate $2.42 (Bloomberg Consensus)
• Sees revenue $4.45 billion to $4.47 billion, saw $4.30 billion to $4.34 billion, estimate $4.35 billion
• Sees adjusted operating income $1.01 billion to $1.03 billion, estimate $976.8 million

Second-quarter revenue jumped 36% to $1.12 billion, beating the $1.08 billion estimate, while adjusted earnings of 65 cents a share exceeded expectations by 5 cents. Adjusted operating margin expanded to 23%, though gross margin slipped to 80% from 81% a year earlier. We suspect this was a focus on why the stock tumbled in premarket trading. 

Customers generating at least $100,000 in annual recurring revenue increased 23% to 4,720. Free cash flow surged 69% to $278.7 million, well ahead of estimates.

2Q Earnings:

• Revenue $1.12 billion, +36% y/y, estimate $1.08 billion
• Adjusted EPS 65c vs. 46c y/y, estimate 60c
• Adjusted gross margin 80% vs. 81% y/y, estimate 80.7%
• Adj. R&D expense $325.1 million, +24% y/y, estimate $327 million
• Adjusted operating margin 23% vs. 20% y/y, estimate 21.6%
• Customers with equal to or greater than $100,000 in annual recurring revenue 4,720, +23% y/y, estimate 4,576
• Cash and cash equivalents $435.0 million, -11% y/y
• Net Cash provided by Operating Activities $315.9 million, +58% y/y, estimate $259.3 million
• Free cash flow $278.7 million, +69% y/y, estimate $215 million

Third-quarter revenue and operating-income guidance also topped consensus.

3Q Forecast:

• Sees adjusted EPS 63c to 65c, estimate 63c
• Sees revenue $1.14 billion to $1.15 billion, estimate $1.11 billion
• Sees adjusted operating income $260 million to $270 million, estimate $253 million

What is Datadog?

Well, it's a cloud-based monitoring and security company that helps firms track the health and performance of their digital systems. It collects data from servers, cloud infrastructure, applications, databases, and networks that gives engineers a unified view of:

• Application performance and outages
• Cloud infrastructure usage
• Software logs and errors
• Cybersecurity threats
• User experience and website performance
• AI and large-language-model workloads

Why is Datadog important?

It's a bellwether for cloud computing and AI infrastructure spending. Its usage-based platform monitors applications, servers, databases, and AI workloads, giving Wall Street analysts a real-time indication of whether companies are expanding or cutting digital activity.

The outright crash in Datadog shares, with virtually no bid following earnings and the stock plunging as much as 23% in premarket trading, the steepest decline in records dating to its 2019 IPO, suggests investors are repricing a stretched valuation and lofty expectations rather than reacting to weak quarterly performance.

Wall Street's View: 

X users respond:

guidance beat but got no bid, classic

— DuckDice (@duckdiceio) August 6, 2026

17% drop after a beat? Market’s in a nasty mood today.

— James🇺🇸 (@Realcoinforge) August 6, 2026

Guidance beat but stock gets crushed. Classic “sell the news.”

— James🇺🇸 (@Realcoinforge) August 6, 2026 Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 08:05

"In Uncharted Waters": The SpaceX Lockup Expiration Begins

SpaceX shares are hovering near record lows after the company's first earnings report as a publicly traded company beat expectations. However, as we noted Tuesday, Thursday's first lockup expiration is likely the more significant near-term catalyst than earnings.

The first insider share lockup expires today and more than doubles the float from about 639 million to 1.55 billion. That means about 911.5 million shares of new supply are inbound for the market.

HSBC analysts Nicolas Cote-Colisson and Charlie Rothbarth recently mapped out the staggered lockup-expiration schedule:

SpaceX's IPO prospectus indicated that 555,555,555 shares would be issued to constitute the free float. We understand that the underwriters have exercised their option to purchase additional shares of Class A common stock in full, so the free float would have extended to 638,888,888 shares.

We identify 4,678m locked up shares and another 8,160m shares subject to an extended lockup. Based on the information provided by the SpaceX prospectus dated 12 June 2026, we calculate that 912m shares could be available for sale in the public market from 6 August 2026, compared with 640m shares constituting the free float at present. The free float would increase from 4.9% at present to 11.8%.

Another release event could occur on the same day depending on SpaceX shares trading above USD175.5 for at least five of 10 consecutive trading days ending on 4 August 2026 (i.e. between 22 July and 4 August 2026). The table below provides further event/date triggers for subsequent share releases.

Those restricted shares are currently owned by funds and individuals that have participated in the private rounds of financing and may be inclined to keep their shares. But we think investors should be aware of this.

Lockup expiration roadmap:

via HSBC

"We've never seen anything like it. We've never seen anything of this scale, and we've never seen a lockup phased in this way," Peter Singlehurst, head of Baillie Gifford's private companies team, which first invested in Musk's company in 2018, told Bloomberg. "We're in uncharted waters."

The incoming wave of supply has attracted short sellers to pile bearish bets on SpaceX. Data compiled by S3 Partners through Tuesday's close shows that 35% of the float is sold short.

That short interest is so concerning to Musk that he even felt compelled to comment and taunt bears hours before earnings on Tuesday.

"I try to warn them, but they just double down...," Musk wrote in an X post responding to a report citing proprietary data from S3 Partners.

I try to warn them, but they just double down … 🤷‍♂️

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 4, 2026

Shares initially rallied following Musk's comments but have since reversed course, sliding back toward the $109 level. On Monday, the stock touched a record low of $104.83, leaving it 22.4% below its $135 offering price and 53.5% beneath its June peak of $225. The selloff has erased more than $1 trillion in market value.

Here's how Wall Street currently views the stock:

A large trading desk told us earlier this week that its team has yet to initiate any buy orders but may begin considering a long position once the first lockup expiration is underway.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 07:45

Researcher Finds Backdoor In Chinese-Made Routers Sold Worldwide

Authored by Evgenia Filimianova via The Epoch Times,

Cybersecurity company VulnCheck said on Aug. 5 that it has found that more than 20 models of a Chinese-made wireless router sold worldwide contain a hidden backdoor that could allow unauthorized access to devices connected to the network.

File photograph of ethernet cables running from the back of a router in Washington on March 21, 2019. Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images

The finding adds to growing Western concerns about cybersecurity risks posed by Chinese-made networking equipment. Western governments have warned for years about hackers exploiting such devices, and U.S. regulators moved this year to restrict imports of foreign-made routers.

Jacob Baines, chief technology officer at VulnCheck, who found the backdoor, said in a blog post that the vulnerability, dubbed "Endlessdoors," affects routers manufactured by Shenzhen Zhibotong Electronics Co. and sold under the Zbtlink and Wiflyer brand names.

Routers serve as the gateway between internet-connected devices and the wider internet, directing traffic to computers, smartphones, smart televisions, cameras, and other connected equipment. Because routers manage internet traffic between connected devices and the wider internet, vulnerabilities affecting them can expose entire home or business networks.

Baines estimates that at least 100,000 such routers are deployed worldwide. The backdoor Baines discovered automatically "dials the same tiny set of endpoints," Baines said in a blog post on the company's website. Whoever controls those domains could take control of the router and potentially use it to access other devices on the same network, he said.

Baines said most people who order this router and use it for their small business or home office would likely have no clue that it could allow this sort of access.

"If I have it in my lab, in my lab at my university, you just invited them straight into your lab and they can roam the network as they choose," Baines said. "The capabilities are devastating."

Western governments have warned about Chinese-linked hackers abusing small office and home office routers and other internet devices to gain access to networks for later intrusions as well as cyberespionage.

Beijing regularly denies condoning or carrying out cyberattacks or cyberespionage.

The Epoch Times reached out to Shenzhen Zhibotong Electronics/Zbtlink for comment but didn't receive a response by publication time.

US Scrutiny

The findings come as U.S. officials continue to increase scrutiny of networking equipment manufactured by companies with links to China.

In March, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) announced restrictions on imports of certain foreign-made consumer routers over national security concerns.

The FCC said in a March 23 statement that foreign-made routers had been exploited by malicious actors to target U.S. households, disrupt networks, conduct espionage, and steal intellectual property.

"Foreign-made routers were also involved in the Volt, Flax, and Salt Typhoon cyberattacks targeting vital U.S. infrastructure," it added.

In February, Texas filed a lawsuit against TP-Link Systems, alleging the networking company exposed American consumers' devices to Chinese regime access.

In response to the lawsuit, TP-Link Systems, which was spun off from a Chinese company, said it would "vigorously defend" its reputation, called the allegations "without merit," and added that the Chinese communist regime has no form of ownership or control over the company, its products, or user data.

Risk for Networks

VulnCheck on Wednesday published a list of 20 affected models and urged organizations to determine whether any remain deployed in their networks.

VulnCheck said users should identify affected devices by their model numbers rather than the brand name because Zbtlink manufactures routers for other companies under original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and original design manufacturer (ODM) agreements.

The company recommended replacing affected devices where possible, restricting remote management access, and installing firmware updates if security fixes become available.

In this photo illustration, a hacker types on a computer keyboard on May 13, 2025. Oleksii Pydsosonnii/The Epoch Times Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 07:20

"If Clarity Dies, Democrats Killed It": Lummis Urges Senate To Act On Crypto Bill Before Recess

Pro-bitcoin Senator Cynthia Lummis has said that bipartisan work is going into the crypto Clarity Act but warned that some lawmakers are still making unreasonable demands.  

The Republican, speaking to Fox Business Wednesday, said that she had been working with Democratic lawmakers into the night to get the bill over the line. 

But, as Bitcoin Magazine's Mathew Di Salvo reports, she said that some Democrats were still dragging their feet on the bill. Lawmakers are pushing to get a vote on the crypto market structure bill before the Senate goes to recess.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Senator Cynthia Lummis says "I believe we will get a vote on the Clarity Act before August recess." 👀

"I don't think we'll be leaving on Friday, I think we'll go into the weekend."

Pass it! 🚀

pic.twitter.com/1AZR7DzEln

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) August 5, 2026

“The president agreed to an ethics provision that no president has ever agreed to,” Lummis said.

“He’s gone farther to protect ethics than any president in history — yet the Democrats do want more. Their proposal is in front of the president now, and we’ll see what he does.”

She added:

“We’re going to vote on it. If it dies, it’s going to be because the Democrats kill it. I’ve bent over backwards for 11 months, to give them as much as we can possibly give them to regulate this industry.”

The Clarity Act has been in a deadlock for much of 2026, partially because the banking lobby raised concerns over crypto companies allowing clients to earn stablecoin yield. 

An updated bill of the Clarity Act was introduced in July addressing concerns around ethics; it now bans government officials and their families from issuing or promoting crypto. 

Democrats have criticized President Trump’s family crypto business ventures. The White House has always said there have been no conflicts of interest. 

A group of Democrats in July said the bill needs work. 

Major financial institutions like Fidelity and BlackRock, and law enforcement organizations have thrown their weight behind the new bill, 

If passed, the Clarity Act would create a regulatory framework for the U.S. cryptocurrency market.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 06:55

EU To Use $1.62 Billion In Interest From Frozen Russian Assets To Support Ukraine

Authored by Victoria Friedman via The Epoch Times,

The European Union will use $1.62 billion accumulated from interest on frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine, the union's executive branch has said.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen speaks during a news conference as part of the European Council meeting to discuss Ukraine, European defense, recent developments in the Middle East, competitiveness, housing, and migration, in Brussels, Belgium, on Oct. 23, 2025. Nicolas Tucat/AFP via Getty Images

The European Commission said in an Aug. 4 statement that the funds, transferred to the bloc on Monday, came from the immobilized assets of Russia's central bank being held by the Central Securities Depositories in the EU.

This was the fifth such transfer of its kind, with the seized assets having generated a total of $9.23 billion in interest.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that Moscow "must pay for the destruction it has caused. And we are using the proceeds from the immobilised Russian assets to make sure it does."

"We are making a further [$1.62] billion of them available to Ukraine. This will support Ukraine's continued resistance against Russia's illegal war," she said.

The funds are from assets immobilized under EU sanctions, which were imposed in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Billions Frozen

The majority of frozen Russian assets are being held by Euroclear, a financial market infrastructure group based in Belgium. Euroclear holds around $213 billion in assets, with another $29 billion held predominantly in France, Germany, Sweden, and Cyprus, according to figures quoted by the European Council in December 2025.

The EU says that while the assets are immobilized, the interest does not belong to Russia, with the European Council deciding the net profits should go to support Ukraine.

Moscow has previously called funds from Russian frozen assets that are given to Ukraine "stolen money."

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on June 24: "It is one thing when you are free to dispose of your assets and receive the interest stipulated by the agreement with Euroclear, while everything above that belongs to them. But you are still free to manage your own funds.

"When your assets are frozen and they tell you, 'You sit tight for now, while we make additional profits here and hand them all over to Ukraine,' this is a very serious matter from the standpoint of the West's attempts to convince everyone that the world order they created and that functioned through modern institutions of global governance - the IMF, the World Trade Organization - remains relevant."

The vast majority of the proceeds - 95 percent - will be distributed to the Ukraine Loan Cooperation Mechanism, which provides support to Ukraine in repaying financial assistance loans and loans provided by the G7. The remaining 5 percent provides funding for military and defense needs.

Russian Sanctions

Last week, EU members agreed on the bloc's 21st round of sanctions against Russia, mainly targeting financial institutions, in a bid to weaken Moscow's economy and affect its war effort.

Von der Leyen said on July 23 that the bloc was adding 32 Russian banks to its transaction-ban list, as well as oil trading platforms and cryptocurrency firms.

The package also freezes the oil price cap for one year "so that the Russian war machine does not benefit from market shocks," she said.

In response, the Russian Permanent Mission said that "European bureaucracy, disregarding the economic costs, continues to pursue its course of escalating confrontation with Russia."

The July 23 statement said that the restrictions "will further aggravate the already acute social and economic problems in the European Union," which the mission said was due to the bloc's decision to drop Russian energy supplies and to continue to spend billions on aid to Ukraine, "all against the backdrop of instability in global energy markets due to the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East."

"We reaffirm that the hostile unilateral coercive measures of the European Union against our country will be met with an effective and due response from Russia," the mission said.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 06:30

Spot The Odd One Out...

While almost one million people crossed the $1 million wealth threshold in 2025, that growth was far from evenly shared across countries.

This visualization, via Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti, ranks the 31 countries that added the most new USD millionaires between 2024 and 2025, revealing where personal wealth expanded fastest over the past year.

The data comes from the UBS Global Wealth Report 2026, which tracks individuals whose net worth exceeded $1 million USD.

The U.S. Dominates Global Wealth Creation

The United States added 441,078 new millionaires in one year, more than 10 times the total recorded by the second-ranked UK.

RankCountryNew USD millionaires (2024–2025) 1🇺🇸 U.S.441,078 2🇬🇧 UK43,139 3🇫🇷 France34,604 4🇪🇸 Spain32,707 5🇯🇵 Japan31,428 6🇮🇳 India31,033 7🇮🇹 Italy28,596 8🇦🇺 Australia25,089 9🇩🇪 Germany24,263 10🇷🇺 Russia21,951 11🇰🇷 South Korea20,227 12🇨🇳 China14,079 13🇹🇼 Taiwan9,864 14🇮🇪 Ireland9,491 15🇧🇷 Brazil9,215 16🇨🇭 Switzerland8,907 17🇮🇱 Israel8,803 18🇲🇽 Mexico8,724 19🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia8,718 20🇦🇪 UAE6,277 21🇹🇷 Türkiye5,650 22🇸🇬 Singapore5,240 23🇵🇱 Poland3,888 24🇿🇦 South Africa3,840 25🇬🇷 Greece2,762 26🇨🇱 Chile2,593 27🇭🇰 Hong Kong SAR1,891 28🇭🇺 Hungary1,349 29🇱🇻 Latvia1,131 30🇱🇹 Lithuania921 31🇶🇦 Qatar528

Canada was not included in this year’s UBS Wealth Report for the ranking and is absent.

American households accounted for nearly half of everyone worldwide who crossed the $1 million threshold in 2025, underscoring the country’s outsized role in global wealth creation.

Strong equity market performance, widespread household investment participation, and resilient economic growth contributed to rising personal wealth.

Europe Claims Many of the Top Spots

Europe is well represented throughout the ranking, with the United Kingdom, France, Spain, Italy, Germany, Ireland, Switzerland, Poland, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, and Lithuania all appearing in the top 31.

The UK ranked second overall, adding more than 43,000 new millionaires, while France and Spain each added more than 30,000.

Although no single European country approached the U.S. total, six of the top 10 countries were in Europe. This points to broad-based wealth growth across several major economies rather than one dominant regional market.

Asia Adds New Millionaires Across Major Markets

Japan and India each added more than 31,000 new millionaires, followed by South Korea with more than 20,000 and China with more than 14,000.

Smaller financial hubs such as Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong SAR also made the list despite their relatively modest populations.

Asia’s results highlight two paths to wealth creation. India continued adding millionaires alongside rapid economic expansion, while mature markets such as Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong SAR, and Singapore generated new wealth through established household asset bases and rising financial markets.

To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on the world’s richest countries by GDP per capita.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 05:45

Iran-Oman Hormuz Route 'Agreed To' As Iran Warns Against US 'Interference' Summary

• Iran says Hormuz route is agreed: Tehran says it has finalized a shipping route with Oman, blaming U.S. actions for delaying a final agreement.
• Tehran claims victory: Iranian officials say the deal would lock in Iran's wartime gains and strategic leverage over Hormuz.
• Mixed messages: Trump says a deal could come within days, while Iran insists the talks are only with Oman.
• Draft outline emerges: Reports outline Iranian oversight of inbound traffic and Omani management of outbound shipping.
• High stakes as pressure eased on markets, but geopolitical tensions high: A deal could ease energy market fears while leaving Iran with more influence over Hormuz than before the war.

//--> //--> //--> US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
Yes 80% · No 21%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Iran-Oman Route 'Agreed To' as Iran Warns Against US 'Interference'

A statement from Iran's Foreign Ministry warns that the United States and military 'interference' remain the biggest obstacles to a final Hormuz deal to reopen the strait:

Esmaeil Baqaei: The geographical coordinates of the route proposed by Iran and Oman in the Strait of Hormuz have been agreed upon. If some third parties do not obstruct this process, the joint statement between the two countries is in the final review and drafting stage. The understanding between Iran and Oman, in itself, cannot guarantee the safety of the Strait for passing ships, because the factors that create insecurity in the Strait of Hormuz, particularly those stemming from the United States, such as the naval blockade and other aggressive and threatening actions against Iran and its interests, still exist.

Latest details from Financial Times:

Initially, Iran would send ships, including oil tankers, through the waterway to ensure it is free of mines before the strait opens to other shipping, FT reports citing sources

• Ships would not be charged fees during the temporary arrangement, the people added.
• If a deal holds and the strait reopens, the US would lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports and reinstate a waiver to allow Iran to sell oil and petroleum-related products, one of the people said.

Iranian pundits and state media continue touting this as a 'victory' over the US-Israeli war of aggression:

Ali Akbar Dareini, a Tehran-based researcher at the Center for Strategic Studies, has said Iran is aiming to “stabilise” its control over the Strait of Hormuz, which is its “biggest military achievement of the war”.

“Negotiations are aimed at stabilizing those achievements,” Dareini told Al Jazeera. “You do not negotiate to give away your achievements but stabilise them.”

Once Iran opens up the strait, Dareini said Iran is still likely to put in place a mechanism to “ensure that peace will prevail”.

“Iran wants to make sure that there will be innocent passage …  But there will not be hazardous passage, there will not be war,” he said, arguing that Tehran needs to ensure the US and its allies do not transport military equipment that could be used for attacks against it.

This also as Yemen's Houthis continue a 'siege for siege' blockade of Red Sea passage, targeting Saudi-linked vessels of Yemen's coast, as we described.

Thus far on Wednesday, the White House has remained mostly quiet on what seem to be Iran and Omani-driven talks for terms of the Hormuz Strait's reopening. Tehran, however, has not remained quiet - as US bombs have fallen silent over the past couple days:

• IRAN SAYS NEW HORMUZ ROUTE TO BE VALID FOR 2-4 MONTHS: IRNA
• IRAN: NEW OMAN DEAL TO CLOSE TEMPORARY HORMUZ SHIPPING ROUTES
• GHARIBABADI SAYS IRAN RECEIVED MESSAGES FROM US: IRNA
• IRAN: US SAID IN MESSAGES IT'S READY TO RETURN TO ITS PLEDGES

And via Israeli media, though without official confirmation from Washington:

Approaching an agreement on opening the Strait of Hormuz, N12 reports, citing American officials; The signing of the agreement is possible as early as tonight.

Meanwhile, much of all of the above depends on what 'mood' Trump is in:

US military-intelligence leaks to media are designed to dissuade Trump from escalating his war (we’re out of missiles & interceptors, Iran isn’t; Iran won’t break, etc). Whereas Israeli intel leaks to media are designed to rile Trump into escalating the war by calling him a pussy https://t.co/Uu3wfmZX8r

— Mark Ames (@MarkAmesExiled) August 5, 2026 Trump: Deal Moving Along 'Very Nicely'

President Trump said late Tuesday that talks with Iran are "moving along very nicely" - in a highly fluid and ambiguous situation where it appears the two sides are only interacting indirectly at best.

But the Iranian side has continued to insist that there are currently no peace or ceasefire talks happening, but only the Iran-Oman negotiations which focus on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and setting terms of how it will be managed. Consistent with this narrative, Al Jazeera freshly cites Iran's state broadcaster IRIB which reports that talks between Iran and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz "have nothing to do with the United States". But Washington is presenting it as a US-Oman deal for the strait's reopening, even if it fundamentally remains an Iranian-Omani proposal.

WANA/Reuters/AP images Timeline: Deal as Soon as This Week?

Trump in his latest comments echoed his Treasury Secretary from the day prior, saying, "It could happen. Tomorrow or the next day." This was on the heels of traveling to Los Angeles yesterday for a fundraising event hosted by the Republican National Committee. "A lot of progress has been made."

He told Fox that the White House is now having "very good discussions" with Iranian officials as part of an "all-day negotiation" and that the Strait of Hormuz reopening "is going to be open very soon."

"If they back out again, they are going to get hit really hard," the president told the outlet. He had said the same by close of last week, but by the weekend reversed course and decided to refrain from attacking Iran again.

According to Bloomberg, "The US, Iran and Oman are preparing to announce a 60-day agreement on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz" - but the Iranian side has not affirmed this.

So as it stands, Tehran says it is driving the Oman talks and that Washington has been sidelined, while the White House claims that it has directly involvement in shaping the outcome.

Iran-Oman-(& US) Hormuz Draft Outline Emerges

But all sides do seem in agreement that the technical details and mechanics of the deal are currently being worked on. According to the latest outline of what this is expected to look like via CBS:

Under the current proposal, ships entering the Strait would use the channel closest to Iran, with Iran coordinating inbound traffic, while vessels leaving the strait would use the Omani side, with Muscat managing outbound traffic. The proposal also includes a "service fee," with the revenue split between Iran and Oman.

According to the source, the broad outlines have largely been agreed upon, with the remaining discussions focused on implementation and timing. Axios reported something similar, in which the US is nearing a Hormuz deal. Axios added that no tolls or fees would be charged during the 60-day period and the parties would work on clearing naval mines from the median lane of the strait within 30 days.

As for the claim of 'no tolls', this could once again be just semantics, given the Iranian and Omani sides have consistently signaled the need for fund collection under the headers of safe navigation, logistics, and environmental protection.

There has also been some progress on agreements for third-party demining operations. But as Rubio reminded the world yesterday, Washington still insists resolving the nuclear issue - something which the Iranians still say can only be broached after the conflict is ended and there is peace.

Below is the version of where things stand via Axios:

• All inbound traffic of ships through the strait and into the Gulf would go in a northern lane through Iranian waters.
• All outbound traffic through the strait and into the Arabian Sea would go in a southern lane through Omani waters, in coordination with Iran.
• No tolls or fees would be charged during the 60-day period.
• The parties would work on clearing naval mines from the median lane of the strait within 30 days.
• After the median lane is cleared, it would be used for inbound and outbound traffic under the terms of a permanent arrangement to be negotiated between Oman and Iran.

More regional commentary serves as a reminder of the significant obstacles that remain toward reaching a final peace, much less the full reopening of Hormuz Strait:

But while Iranians are saying that, at this point, talks are limited to Iran and Oman, it goes without saying that the US is a key factor. We’ve got a report from state TV today citing an informed source who said that even if a deal were reached today, the breach of the Memorandum of Understanding agreement by the US means there won’t be a reopening of the strait. One of the key points of concern for the Iranians regarding the strait is the removal of the naval blockade by the Americans. They have been constantly saying that this is one of the pre-conditions.

If Axios and some other major MSM reports are to be believed, the scheme is advancing on the Iranian side. "Two regional sources said Araghchi agreed in principle over the weekend but still needed approval from Iran's Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, and the Supreme National Security Council," writes the publication. "A U.S. official and a regional source said Iranian leadership completed its approval process on Tuesday."

An interim maritime arrangement, inside a Memorandum of Understanding, within a ceasefire.

It's a diplomatic turducken. https://t.co/WpXke2brda

— Ali Vaez (@AliVaez) August 5, 2026 Draft Deal Widely Seen as Victory for Iran

If all the above comes into force, it will widely be seen as a victory for Iran. It will leave Iran with greater control over energy transit than before the war. Simultaneously this would be Trump essentially cutting and running in order to finally extricate American forces from the deepening quagmire, while approaching the six-month mark since Operation Epic Fury started.

For example, even the NY Times admits, "Iran and Oman are closing in on an agreement to reopen shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iranian and American officials, but if the accord goes into effect it could come at a high price — ratifying Tehran’s control over what, before the war, was an open, international waterway." While markets would breath a sigh of relief, Tehran would be in the driver's seat geopolitically.

US officials cited in the same report have only said the Hormuz scheme would the "temporary" - and so the ongoing contrasting interpretations suggest another tenuous and shaky agreement in the works.

"But if, ultimately, Iran asserts continued control over the passageway, the opening might come with a geopolitical cost. Iranian officials say they are designing the accord to ratify their capacity to control the strait and therefore retain strategic leverage that they did not employ before the war," the NYT also wrote.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 05:11

Iraq-Syria Pipeline to Bypass Hormuz Could Be Revived Within 3 Years

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice

An old Iraq-to-Syria oil pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz could be up and running within three years, a senior Syrian official has said.

The Hormuz crisis that cut off most of Iraq’s crude oil exports has accelerated plans by Iraq and Syria to rebuild a damaged oil pipeline to ship crude oil from the Iraqi fields in Kirkuk to Syria’s Mediterranean coast.

The completion of the renovation of the pipeline from Haditha in Iraq to the Syrian port of Baniyas would take “three years at most,” said Youssef Qablawi, CEO of the state-owned Syrian Petroleum Company.

Syria and Iraq have started negotiations to finalize the contract, and are also in discussions with companies that will invest in this pipeline, the executive said, as carried by Iraqi news outlet The New Region.

“Engineering studies and the purchase of materials will then begin, followed by construction. Implementation will take between 30 months and three years at most, after which the pipeline will be ready,” Qablawi told reporters.

The project is expected to consist of two pipelines with a capacity of between 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) and 2 million bpd, according to the executive.

Last month, the United States voiced its support for the plan. The U.S. backs the Iraqi and Syrian efforts to rebuild the Kirkuk-Baniyas oil pipeline and diminish Iran’s potential to disrupt Hormuz traffic in the future, an official at the U.S. State Department told Reuters.

The United States also expects U.S. companies to play a role in the reconstruction of the Kirkuk-Baniyas oil route, according to reports. The pipeline would be crucial for Iraq’s oil exports not depending on Hormuz, Syria’s post-war economy, and reduced Iranian leverage in the Strait.

Iraq desperately needs export routes not depending on the Strait of Hormuz, whose closure exposed this key Iraqi vulnerability, forced OPEC’s second-largest producer to slash upstream production, and led to billions of U.S. dollars of lost revenues for Baghdad.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 05:00

One-Way Attack Drone Found At Major German Airport: The Threat Has Arrived

A one-way attack drone was discovered on the tarmac at Leipzig/Halle Airport, one of Europe's most important freight hubs. The German airport hosts transport company DHL's largest air hub and serves as the operating base for Ukraine's massive Antonov heavy-lift cargo aircraft.

Exklusive Aufnahmen – Das ist die Drohne vom Flughafen Leipzig https://t.co/1gO23uWA30 pic.twitter.com/dwqSD940Lc

— WELT (@welt) August 5, 2026

The Financial Times reports that a transport jet collided with a suspected second drone during takeoff. Another drone was found carrying an improvised explosive device near Antonov Airlines' An-124 massive cargo jet. Five An-124s were moved to Leipzig after Russia damaged Ukrainian facilities in 2022.

🇩🇪 Russia planned a terrorist attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport in Germany

A drone carrying a package with a detonator and explosives was discovered near a parked Ukrainian Antonov Airlines cargo aircraft.

State and federal police deployed an explosives-disposal robot to isolate… pic.twitter.com/DrmER1Tmrk

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) August 5, 2026

"During the night of 4 to 5 August 2026, a drone carrying an unknown explosive device was detected by an airport employee in the security area of the cargo operations near the south runway," the Dresden public prosecutor wrote in a statement.

German counterterrorism and sabotage units are investigating the incidents as a national-security threat. Officials are examining whether there is a Russian connection, though authorities have yet to make the link.

Here's more from the outlet:

Russia was now at the forefront of investigators' minds, but they noted work was at an early stage and nothing concrete had yet been established. The incidents were being considered a national security threat, they said.

The drone found at Leipzig is considered a "Group 1" classification as it weighs under 20 pounds.

Courtesy of Piper Sandler analyst Clarke Jeffries:

We have warned that a serious Group 1-3 drone incident in the West is only a matter of time. Leipzig may be the clearest warning shot yet.

Western officials are already accelerating counter-UAS deployments around high-value assets, but the defensive challenge is enormous. Virtually every node of critical infrastructure, from substations and data centers to military bases, remains exposed.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 04:15

BMW Job Cuts And The Emerging German-French Industrial Strategy

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

Will German policy paralysis and French protectionism save Germany’s automakers? Unlikely, since Paris and Berlin are pursuing similar ideological goals. Everything points toward the expansion of a green state-run economy. On that, there is agreement. The concerns of private enterprise are secondary.

Given the dramatic situation, automakers would probably take even the most hopeless escape route in an attempt to escape the downward spiral. This has now also caught up with the previously remarkably resilient BMW Group: Just last week, Volkswagen announced plans to cut 120,000 jobs, Porsche has to eliminate 5,000 positions, and Mercedes has already parted ways with 5,500 employees. Now BMW is following suit, announcing that it will have to part with 8,000 of its 154,000 employees. The pressure to act is considerable. In the second quarter, the Munich-based group’s profit plunged by a staggering 35 percent year-on-year. In the core automotive business, the company lost 60 percent of its earnings.

BMW’s workforce reduction is supposed to take place quietly: through natural employee turnover and a voluntary severance program. The company wants to avoid compulsory redundancies in Munich.

The initiative will begin in October and run until 2027, specifically targeting employees outside production. Between 30,000 and 40,000 administrative employees at BMW are expected to receive an offer to leave the company – in return, BMW will expand its employment guarantee for the future: compulsory redundancies in Germany are to be ruled out even if the company falls into the red.

Whether this policy can ultimately be maintained when push comes to shove remains to be seen. In any case, entire layers of management are to be eliminated and departments merged – not least because BMW has concluded that artificial intelligence can increase operational efficiency.

Efficiency programs in Germany’s automotive industry are unavoidable. Excessive energy costs are weighing on companies’ results, alongside Brussels regulation and the political campaign against the combustion engine, which still dominates the market. It is impossible to keep pace with global competition from the domestic production base. According to consultancy EY, German automakers and their suppliers lost 50,000 jobs within a single year. There is no sign of a reversal: Germany’s automotive industry association VDA now expects 225,000 jobs to disappear across the sector by 2035, some 35,000 more than its estimate just a few months ago.

And what is politics doing? It clings doggedly to the ideology of the Green Deal, regardless of what it may cost citizens – with the state, financed through taxes and debt, remaining as an employer of last resort if necessary. That, in a nutshell, has so far been the position of the political leadership of the European Union.

Euro-corporatism has grown far beyond its limits. Billions flow from taxpayers to Brussels and return, rebranded as climate bonuses, credit guarantees and funding allocations for dubious start-ups, into the channels of the green transformation machine. This may be the most extreme case of politically driven destruction of capital. The decline of European industry is inevitable. It is impossible to conceive of an economy that could withstand the subversive barrage of European ideologues over an extended period.

Bewildered and incredulous, they stand in Berlin and Paris before the ruins of their own work. Since political circles operate under an imperative of infallibility, every last resource is being mobilized to continue the prevailing policy. At the German-French Council of Ministers in Germany in mid-July, Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz reaffirmed their common industrial policy agenda. The two governments subsequently instructed their negotiators to work out a broader compromise: France wants to shield European industry more strongly from foreign competition, while Germany is primarily seeking a way out of the crisis engulfing its automotive industry.

Too much money is flowing out: For Chinese EV manufacturers or solar-panel producers, Brussels’ subsidy machine is a welcome bonus. Countless businesses are effectively living off the naivety of European policymakers. It pays to put up the umbrella for subsidies when EU bureaucrats and political fools are scattering taxpayers’ money with both hands.

And so a German-French bargain is now supposed to bring relief in the crisis. Berlin would support the French demand for a tougher “Made in Europe” model for industrial funding. At the heart of the strategy is the Industrial Accelerator Act, or IAA, presented by the European Commission in March. It is supposed to apply in public tenders and funding programs and define requirements for applicants in advance. Naturally, CO₂-free products and manufacturing processes are to receive priority in the subsidy jungle.

Subsidies will continue to flow above all to decarbonization champions. But there is nothing remotely market-oriented about this; the subsidy frenzy merely promotes cronyism and a subsidy-hunter mentality in the EU. Brussels also wants to define in the future which third countries qualify as so-called “trusted partners.” In doing so, the bureaucracy is intervening massively in the existing supply chains of European companies. “Made in Europe” – a crude form of industrial policy, with bureaucrats at the helm who can, at the behest of politicians, give suppliers the thumbs-down and shut them out, regardless of the consequences this may have for European businesses.

Berlin had rejected this practice until now. But given the situation in the automotive sector and the French concessions in this area, the German government now appears open to a “Made in Europe” strategy.

The other side of the deal is this: France is signaling a willingness to handle the 2035 combustion-engine phaseout more flexibly. It will ultimately come down to negotiating CO₂ consumption quotas more flexibly and assigning a different weight to investments in hybrid drivetrains in the CO₂ balance. In short: business as usual in the same outfit, merely unbuttoned at one point.

Ways out of the crisis mean the end of the current policy. Technological openness for business, competition in a free, deregulated single market – politics contributes nothing to solving the crisis. Quite the contrary. The bargain between Paris and Berlin would appear protectionist from the outside, but could provide companies with some short-term breathing room through more efficient allocation of subsidies. In doing so, political pressure is removed to break with the fatal ideological design of the Green Deal.

Without a structural break with the ideological present, there will be no recovery. The therapy that Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz intend to prescribe for the European automotive industry will ultimately prove to be an injection of the same poison that has turned the entire EU economy into an economic cripple.

* * * 

About the author Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 03:30

This Is The Income Needed To Be 'Happy' Around The World

In most countries, the average worker still earns less than the income researchers associate with peak reported well-being.

Research on income and well-being has identified a “satiation point,” an income level beyond which additional earnings no longer improve reported happiness. But how close does the average worker come to reaching that threshold?

An analysis from Remitly calculated the price of happiness in economies around the world and compared it with average local wages.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte, ranks the 50 countries where average annual income comes closest to that threshold.

The analysis is based on Purdue University‘s income satiation research and data from the International Labour Organization, adjusted for purchasing power, inflation, and currency exchange rates.

Slovenia Is the Only Country Where Wages Exceed the Threshold

Slovenia stands alone among the 50 countries analyzed. Its average wage of $42,800 is 16.3% higher than its estimated price of happiness of $36,800, meaning the typical worker earns more than the income associated with peak reported well-being.

No other country crosses that line. Luxembourg comes closest, with wages covering 92.8% of its $118,400 happiness threshold, followed by Estonia (90.5%), Singapore (90.0%), and Lithuania (89.2%).

The data table below shows the average annual wage and price of happiness in each country, along with how close wages come to reaching that threshold:

Rank Country Average Annual Wage Price of Happiness Wage as % of Price of Happiness 1 🇸🇮 Slovenia $37,000 $43,000 116.3% 2 🇱🇺 Luxembourg $110,000 $118,000 92.8% 3 🇪🇪 Estonia $38,000 $42,000 90.5% 4 🇸🇬 Singapore $49,000 $55,000 90.0% 5 🇱🇹 Lithuania $30,000 $33,000 89.2% 6 🇨🇿 Czechia $33,000 $38,000 87.8% 7 🇱🇻 Latvia $30,000 $36,000 84.7% 8 🇬🇷 Greece $28,000 $35,000 79.7% 9 🇧🇪 Belgium $88,000 $111,000 79.1% 10 🇷🇴 Romania $21,000 $27,000 76.3% 11 🇵🇱 Poland $24,000 $32,000 74.5% 12 🇩🇰 Denmark $82,000 $122,000 66.8% 13 🇲🇹 Malta $54,000 $81,000 66.2% 14 🇳🇱 Netherlands $76,000 $117,000 64.8% 15 🇳🇴 Norway $77,000 $121,000 64.2% 16 🇩🇪 Germany $67,000 $106,000 63.1% 17 🇮🇪 Ireland $67,000 $109,000 61.4% 18 🇨🇱 Chile $13,000 $22,000 60.9% 19 🇦🇹 Austria $70,000 $115,000 60.6% 20 🇫🇮 Finland $69,000 $116,000 59.2% 21 🇲🇪 Montenegro $14,000 $24,000 58.4% 22 🇫🇷 France $59,000 $104,000 57.4% 23 🇨🇭 Switzerland $87,000 $155,000 56.4% 24 🇷🇸 Serbia $15,000 $27,000 56.2% 25 🇺🇸 United States $75,000 $135,000 55.8% 26 🇨🇷 Costa Rica $16,000 $29,000 54.1% 27 🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina $12,000 $23,000 53.0% 28 🇭🇺 Hungary $16,000 $30,000 52.3% 29 🇶🇦 Qatar $42,000 $82,000 51.2% 30 🇮🇹 Italy $46,000 $94,000 49.2% 31 🇸🇰 Slovakia $19,000 $39,000 48.9% 32 🇪🇸 Spain $43,000 $88,000 48.4% 33 🇰🇷 South Korea $35,000 $74,000 48.0% 34 🇸🇪 Sweden $56,000 $118,000 47.4% 35 🇨🇦 Canada $51,000 $114,000 44.4% 36 🇺🇾 Uruguay $15,000 $35,000 43.9% 37 🇲🇺 Mauritius $8,000 $19,000 43.2% 38 🇨🇾 Cyprus $37,000 $94,000 39.4% 39 🇦🇺 Australia $59,000 $161,000 36.6% 40 🇧🇷 Brazil $8,000 $21,000 36.4% 41 🇧🇴 Bolivia $6,000 $15,000 36.1% 42 🇦🇷 Argentina $7,000 $20,000 36.1% 43 🇬🇧 United Kingdom $43,000 $120,000 35.9% 44 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia $23,000 $65,000 35.5% 45 🇦🇱 Albania $10,000 $28,000 34.8% 46 🇨🇴 Colombia $6,000 $18,000 34.7% 47 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic $6,000 $18,000 34.0% 48 🇳🇿 New Zealand $47,000 $137,000 34.0% 49 🇵🇾 Paraguay $6,000 $19,000 33.7% 50 🇪🇨 Ecuador $7,000 $20,000 32.9%

Central and Eastern European countries occupy seven of the top 11 spots, including Estonia, Lithuania, Czechia, Latvia, Greece, Romania, and Poland.

Their wages are modest by global standards, but their estimated happiness thresholds are also comparatively low, keeping the gap between the two smaller. A similar pattern appears in Where Wages Go Furthest Around the World, where several of the same economies rank highly for purchasing power.

High Wages Do Not Guarantee a Smaller Gap

The United States has the third-highest average wage in the study at $75,300, but it also has one of the highest prices of happiness at $134,800. As a result, wages cover just 55.8% of the threshold.

Australia has the highest price of happiness in the ranking at $161,300, more than double its average wage of $59,000. With wages covering 36.6% of the threshold, the country ranks 39th overall.

The United Kingdom (35.9%), Canada (44.4%), and New Zealand (34.0%) show a similar pattern. Despite relatively high wages, workers in these countries remain further from the income associated with peak well-being than those in several lower-wage economies in Central and Eastern Europe.

Ecuador ranks last among the 50 countries measured, with an average wage of $6,500 covering 32.9% of its $19,700 price of happiness.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Money Can Buy Happiness After All on Voronoi.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 02:45

Why On Earth Are They Doing This?

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

The Spanish Red Cross is treating the military-age men who swam around the border fence and stormed Ceuta like victims of an earthquake.

Volunteers in red vests are lining up on the sand at Playa del Trampolín, handing out bread, milk, biscuits, water, cans of tuna and pastries to the thousands who remain after last week's deliberate mass invasion from Morocco. Police stand by to keep the queues orderly while the same people who refused to go home sit and eat.

This is not a natural disaster. These men crossed into Spanish territory because the opportunity was created for them. There is nothing stopping Spanish authorities from sending them straight back. Instead the humanitarian apparatus has arrived with supplies.

The Red Cross is now handing out food and supplies to illegals in Ceuta as if they're victims of a natural disaster. They literally swam the coastline and invaded Spain because they felt like it and there is nothing preventing them from being sent home. pic.twitter.com/eAruK5wyiy

— m o d e r n i t y (@ModernityNews) August 4, 2026

Cadena SER and local outlets confirmed the first organised distribution of food since the crisis began. Cruz Roja and the local branch of Cooperación Sur-Sur handed out the packages to around 2,000 migrants, the majority from sub-Saharan Africa.

???? Red Cross in Ceuta handing out food and water to the migrants who just stormed Spanish territory.

Locals are furious and it's hard to blame them.

Carrots don't keep people away, sticks do...

Writer: Samuelpic.twitter.com/hanliozVRk

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) August 4, 2026

National Police managed the lines so the recipients stayed seated until their turn, then returned to the beach to eat. One Nigerian man named Genesis told reporters he was "happy to finally have something to eat and drink." He said he had been trying to cross for months and now hopes for asylum.

African Migrants in Ceuta Complain About Treatment: 'No Food, No Blankets' pic.twitter.com/RmWGWe2oVA

— New York Post (@nypost) August 3, 2026

A Sudanese man named Malik Alher said he had gone five days without food, then added that he wants to "learn Spanish, live in Madrid and work in a supermarket."

The volunteers doing the handing-out look exactly like the usual crowd: white European leftist women. Locals watching the scene are furious, and for good reason. Feeding the people who just overran your city does not encourage them to leave.

This comes after Spanish officials spent days insisting the problem had solved itself. Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares claimed the "practical totality" of those who entered had returned to Morocco.

The Spanish Embassy in London repeated the line. Reality on the ground never matched the press releases. Streets remained full, facilities were stormed, and thousands simply stayed put on the beaches and around the CETI reception centre.

Local estimates of those left behind ranged from 2,000 to 15,000. But it's anyone's guess. Many of the remaining group are now openly declaring they will not go back. They are waiting for the next step toward the Spanish mainland and the wider European welfare systems.

?? A Spanish soldier in Ceuta said they are now ordered only to direct illegal migrants toward the border so they leave the country on their own.

"Right now we are not allowed to do anything else," the soldier has said.

For him, it is a personal sorrow what Sánchez's... https://t.co/nwDPZjRFyB pic.twitter.com/U19WqDSij5

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) August 4, 2026

Muslim Invaders Chanting "Allahu Akbar" Have OVERTAKEN The Streets of Ceuta.

Police are completely overwhelmed.

The government wants you to think this isn't happening.

We are witnessing the total collapse of a nation. https://t.co/9VhvDWSP3A

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) August 3, 2026

The situation in Ceuta:

Thousands of invaders still remain. They've taken to forested areas around the city to avoid being captured.

Their goal now is to get on boats to the Spanish mainland. Social media is also full of calls by illegals to stage another mass invasion on the... pic.twitter.com/Q8JBQPwN36

— ???? ???? ?? ?? (@NiohBerg) August 4, 2026

Auf der marokkanischen Seite an der Grenze zu Ceuta warten Schwarzafrikaner auf ihre Weiterreise in die EU. Sie werden von den Behörden zurückgehalten, damit zuerst die Marokkaner nach Spanien eindringen können.

Sie nennen es "Zwischenhaltungs-Internatzentrum".

Das Video ist... pic.twitter.com/U8idHK1VAo

— ???? (@queru_lant) August 1, 2026

Some, have already been sent to mainland Spain.

?? Dozens of migrants were allegedly transferred from Ceuta to Andalusia, mainland Spain today.

Follow: @europa pic.twitter.com/BU0F9vJm21

— Europa.com (@europa) August 4, 2026

Vox leader Santiago Abascal has called the episode an "invasion and an act of war promoted by Morocco and allowed by Sánchez." He demanded the prime minister face legal proceedings.

Muslim Invaders in Ceuta are now BURNING the Countryside as they Continue TAKE OVER the Streets.

This is total chaos and collapse of a country.

It looks like a literal zombie apocalypse. pic.twitter.com/6GqklXUK4n

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) August 3, 2026

The People's Party has accused Sánchez of being on holiday while sovereignty was tested. Ceuta's own president Juan Jesús Vivas described the situation as "absolutely unsustainable" for a city of just 83,000.

Handing out free meals does not change the fundamental facts. These men were not shipwrecked, they did not come from a war zone. They walked and swam into Spanish territory in a coordinated surge that Morocco facilitated and Spain failed to stop.

Every ration distributed on that beach signals that the cost of illegal entry will be met with care packages rather than immediate removal. Carrots do not deter the next wave. Only the credible threat of being sent straight home does.

Spain's government can still choose enforcement over theatre. Until it does, the Red Cross will keep unpacking boxes for the people who invaded, and the residents of Ceuta will keep watching their city turned into a holding pen for those who refuse to leave.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 02:00