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Canada Fast-Tracks 1 Million-Bpd Pacific Link Oil Pipeline To Asia

Authored by Julianne Geiger via OilPrice.com,

Canada is fast-tracking a proposed 1 million-barrel-per-day oil pipeline to the Pacific coast, giving Alberta another route to Asian buyers and another way around its overwhelming dependence on the U.S. market.

Prime Minister Mark Carney said Thursday that Ottawa will list the project as one of national interest, sending it through a single federal review process that Ottawa aims to complete by September 1, 2027, potentially allowing construction to begin shortly afterward.

The pipeline would run from Alberta to southern British Columbia, largely following the existing Trans Mountain corridor. Trans Mountain Corp. and Pembina Pipeline would lead the project, with the federal and Alberta governments expected to hold the majority stake. Indigenous communities would be offered at least 10% ownership.

Alberta estimates construction could cost between C$35.2 billion and C$43.7 billion. Ottawa says the project could generate more than C$20 billion in annual GDP, create as many as 140,000 jobs at peak construction and produce C$100 billion in government revenue by 2060.

Canada still sends more than 90% of its crude exports to the United States. Its main escape route is the 890,000-bpd Trans Mountain pipeline, which reaches the Pacific and is already running at capacity.

That Pacific access has become more valuable since the Iran war disrupted Middle Eastern flows and sent Asian refiners hunting for barrels that do not have to clear the Strait of Hormuz. China has already become the largest buyer of Trans Mountain's seaborne exports, taking roughly 60% of shipments, according to the Canadian government.

Ottawa and Alberta are also pursuing another 300,000 to 400,000 bpd of capacity on the existing Trans Mountain system.

The new pipeline still needs a final route, regulatory approvals, and consultation with Indigenous communities and British Columbia.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/02/2026 - 19:15

CBS Dumps Tony Romo Two Months After OWI Arrest With Roughly $72 Million Left On His Deal

CBS Sports and Tony Romo, the former Dallas Cowboys quarterback turned lead NFL analyst, are done.

"CBS Sports and Tony Romo have mutually agreed to part ways. We thank Tony for his contributions over the past nine years and wish him the best moving forward."

J.J. Watt has been named as Romo's replacement.

Romo joined CBS in 2017 and signed a 10-year, $180 million deal in 2020, one of the richest contracts in sports broadcasting. About four years and roughly $72 million remained on it. Neither side disclosed the terms of the separation, so how much of that CBS actually pays out is anyone's guess.

The exit comes a little more than two months after Romo was arrested for operating while intoxicated on July 23 in the Milwaukee area, after competing in the Wisconsin Amateur Championship. Body camera footage showed him telling deputies he was visiting relatives before he failed field sobriety tests, and police found an open container of alcohol in his vehicle. He later pleaded no contest.

In a statement, Romo said he developed a reliance on pain medication after back surgeries from his playing days, which led to an "over-reliance" on alcohol. "None of this is an excuse. These are my failures, and I take responsibility for them," he said, adding that he plans to step away and focus on his health and family before pursuing another job.

Reviews of Romo's work in the booth had waned in recent seasons, AP noted. An OWI arrest is a convenient off-ramp from the back half of a contract signed at the top of the market.

CBS's parent, Paramount Skydance, is days from closing its $31-a-share cash takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery, with the deal expected to close Tuesday, Oct. 6. A newly merged media giant will be looking hard at every nine-figure talent contract on the books.

Former Houston Texans star J.J. Watt takes Romo's seat next to Jim Nantz and Tracy Wolfson on CBS's top NFL crew, while Ian Eagle, Ross Tucker and Evan Washburn stay together on the No. 2 team. Early reviews of Watt's fill-in work were mixed, praising his preparation while questioning his feel for big moments.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/02/2026 - 18:50

Waste Of The Day: Defunct Veterans' Hotline

Authored by Jeremy Portnoy via RealClearInvestigations,

Contractors working at the Department of Veterans Affairs' suicide-prevention hotline earned $11.2 million without answering a single phone call, according to a Sept. 1 report from the VA inspector general.

Key facts: The Veterans Crisis Line is available 24 hours per day for veterans experiencing a mental health emergency. Trained government staff answer calls, provide support and send a medical team if there is an immediate risk of harm.

In 2019, a contractor was hired to establish a backup crisis line. If the main Veterans Crisis Line was unavailable because of a power outage or some other emergency, contractors at the backup center could answer calls.

The backup center hired new staff in 2022, but the government assumed they would not need security clearance to do their job. They were wrong; the contractors needed to record calls and document veterans' identity and mental health issues. That requires authorization from the General Services Administration, which typically takes 12 to 18 months to obtain.

Without clearance, the contractors were left to essentially sit and twiddle their thumbs. They did not answer a single phone call from a veteran from July 2022 until the contract ended in June 2023.

But a bureaucratic mess allowed the contractor to keep getting paid. Some employees said they did not realize the contractor was not doing any work. Others said they were waiting for a formal notice from a supervisor instructing them to cease payments. In March 2023, one employee even rated the contractor's work as "satisfactory."

Even with proper security clearance, the contractors might have failed to do their job properly. The company was required to staff the backup center with 92 employees, but there were less than 50 people actually assigned.

Before the contractor was hired, the VA started making its own in-house backup call center, raising questions about why the company was hired in the first place.

Summary: According to the audit, veterans are twice as likely to commit suicide compared to other Americans. Taxpayer resources must be used to provide them the resources they need, not to pay contractors without a purpose.

The #WasteOfTheDay is brought to you by the forensic auditors at OpenTheBooks.com.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/02/2026 - 18:25

Protecting The Indispensable Right: It Is Time To Pass The Free Speech Attorney's Fee Legislation

Authored by Jonathan Turley via JonathanTurley.org,

A newly proposed bill in Congress could make a meaningful difference in the fight to restore free speech protections in higher education. The Restoring Civil Rights Attorney's Fees Act of 2026 would address a practical problem for civil rights and free speech groups suing public universities for the denial of free speech. When universities lose at the preliminary injunction stage, advocates cannot recoup costs and fees. The bill would allow that recovery and, as a result, level the playing field with universities, which can tap public funds to litigate these cases.

We have discussed many cases where universities spend millions in public funds to support anti-free speech policies and actions. A relatively small group of public interest groups have waged these battles with a collection of individual attorneys. Universities know that a case ending in a preliminary injunction will not result in fees or costs being paid to the victorious litigant. This bill would change that.

In my book The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage, I suggest various ways that Congress could reinforce free speech rights, particularly in higher education. This is precisely the type of measure that can help tangibly support that effort.

The problem that we have faced in the free-speech community is that faculty and administrators have created an echo chamber in higher education by purging departments of dissenting voices, particularly conservative and libertarian faculty. Once in control of these universities, officials proceeded to tap into public funds to not only reinforce this ideological orthodoxy but also finance litigation.

Universities routinely lose these free speech cases. However, they know that cases that end at the preliminary injunction stage will often deny litigants the ability to recover fees or costs. In Lackey v. Stinnie (2025), a divided Supreme Court ruled that plaintiffs who received only a preliminary injunction before their case became moot were not "prevailing parties" eligible for fees under federal law.

The result is the use of public funds to drain the resources of free speech groups and advocates. It also adds a coercive element as universities pressure advocates to settle cases by noting that, if they secure a P.I., the university could fold and leave them without any recovery. They are literally using the public coffers to fight against free speech rights supported by the vast majority of citizens.

Congress can close this loophole and level the field. It will not transform higher education, but it will help guarantee that dissenting faculty and students have a fair chance against state universities.

The legislation is also important because, as I discuss in The Indispensable Right and prior columns, public universities are the final line of defense for free speech. Since the First Amendment applies directly to these universities, free-speech advocates have a greater ability to defend free speech and minority viewpoints at these schools. This can offer students an alternative to private universities as they seek environments with a modicum of tolerance (even if forced) for opposing viewpoints.

It is time to pass the Restoring Civil Rights Attorney's Fees Act of 2026.

Jonathan Turley is the best-selling author of "Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution."

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CEO Warns The 2028 Election Will Be A Brutal Referendum On This One Thing

Some of Silicon Valley's biggest AI boosters are warning that artificial intelligence could become a defining issue in the 2028 presidential election as voters grow increasingly uneasy about the massive infrastructure buildout needed to power the technology.

Box CEO Aaron Levie told the Andreessen Horowitz podcast that the next presidential contest could effectively become an "AI election," forcing candidates to confront growing public anxiety surrounding the technology.

"The next election will 100% be a referendum on AI," Levie said. "So it has to happen that 2028 is the AI election."

.@levie predicts on the @a16z podcast that the 2028 election will be a referendum on AI. pic.twitter.com/pXPPsYbYDl

— Josh Caplan (@joshdcaplan) September 30, 2026

Levie argued that supporters face a messaging problem because making the case for rapid AI development is complicated, while opposition can be communicated through simple warnings about its potential dangers.

Steven Sinofsky, a board partner at a16z and former Microsoft executive, argued that AI skeptics have already seized control of the language surrounding the debate.

"We own none of the vocabulary," Sinofsky said. "The whole debate is pause. It's swarms. It's rogue. Every word has been chosen by the people who don't want to do AI."

The warning comes as President Donald Trump aggressively pushes to cement American dominance in AI, including by accelerating construction of the data centers and energy infrastructure required to support the technology.

The Trump administration's National Policy Framework for Artificial Intelligence calls on Congress to streamline federal permitting for AI infrastructure while ensuring residential customers do not face higher electricity bills because of new data centers.

However, public opinion suggests selling that buildout could be a political death trap for candidates seeking the highest office in the land.

A Fox News poll conducted September 11-14 found 71% of registered voters oppose an AI data center being built in their area, including 46% who strongly oppose one. Just 26% support local construction.

To make matters worse, the skepticism extends beyond where the facilities are built. A September Marquette Law School Poll found 71% of Americans believe the costs of data centers outweigh their benefits, compared with 29% who believe the benefits outweigh the costs. The survey also found 64% believe AI is bad for society, while 36% consider it a good thing.

The Trump administration has sought to tackle one of the biggest sources of voter concern: electricity prices.

Under Trump's Ratepayer Protection Pledge, major technology companies including Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, Oracle and xAI agreed to build, bring or buy new power generation and cover infrastructure upgrades required for their data centers rather than passing those costs onto households.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/02/2026 - 17:20

Newsom Tells California Agencies To Keep Saying AI Despite Trump 'Super Intelligence' Order

Authored by Chase Smith via The Epoch Times,

California Gov. Gavin Newsom on Sept. 30 ordered state agencies to keep using the term "artificial intelligence," one day after President Donald Trump directed the federal executive branch to replace it with "super intelligence."

Newsom signed an executive order saying all agencies and departments under his authority "shall refer to Artificial Intelligence and AI as 'Artificial Intelligence' and 'AI,' notwithstanding any rebranded or different terminology used by the federal government, unless inconsistent with the law."

The order says that while terminology can have significance, "purporting to change something's name cannot distract a person of normal intelligence from recognizing the impotent and craven failure to take action to address well-documented emerging security and safety risks posed by that thing."

The order does not name Trump or the White House - however, an accompanying statement by Newsom does reference the president.

"Super intelligence is clearly not coming from the White House - that's why California continues to lead," Newsom said in a statement.

He said AI should expand opportunity rather than come at the expense of workers and families.

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In response to a request for comment on Newsom's order, the White House pointed to recent public remarks by Trump.

"We don't call it artificial intelligence because it's not artificial. It's real. It's a terrible word," Trump said. "It's amazing it lived on so long, actually."

"We looked at 'superior intelligence.' We looked at 'supreme intelligence,' but I didn't want to mix it up with the Supreme Court - get myself in trouble," he said. "Artificial means it's fake or it's false, and this is not. This is real."

Trump added the United States and China are the only two countries competing in the field, and that the United States is "leading them by a lot."

"Whoever wins super intelligence wins," he said.

Trump's order, signed on Sept. 29, directs agencies, "to the maximum extent permitted by law," to use "Super Intelligence" and "SI" in place of "Artificial Intelligence" and "AI."

It says the executive branch "will not acknowledge the usage of 'Artificial Intelligence' and 'AI' in any applicable setting."

That covers official correspondence, public communications, websites, reports, policy documents, and other non-statutory documents.

It does not require changes to previously issued regulations, contracts, grants, or other historical documents.

The order says the new term "more appropriately captures the promise, potential, and rapidly advancing capabilities of these technologies."

A White House fact sheet says the order also directs the president's science adviser to propose a federal definition of "Super Intelligence" within 60 days.

Newsom signed 13 bills on Sept. 30 addressing AI in the workplace, health care, digital watermarks, deepfakes and digital replicas, legal work, and gene synthesis companies, his office said.

It described the workplace measures as the nation's first.

They prohibit employers from relying only on AI when making a disciplinary or termination decision; require employers to disclose when an AI system causes a mass layoff, relocation, or termination; and ban workplace surveillance tools in bathrooms, according to the governor's office.

"Workers across California have demanded that our state lead the way in regulating AI in our workplaces. And today, we see that begin to happen," California Federation of Labor Unions President Lorena Gonzalez said of four of the bills.

She said the bills show how to "put guardrails on AI at work" and "put workers first."

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/02/2026 - 17:00

Brazil Braces For Election Volatility As Bolsonaro Gains On Lula, Bullish Options Bets Explode

The big election focus this weekend will be on Sunday, with the latest polling data showing right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and socialist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva are statistically tied. Polymarket, meanwhile, shows Bolsonaro with a wide lead.

Bloomberg reports that neither Bolsonaro nor Lula is expected to secure an outright victory in Sunday's first round of voting. This suggests that a second round on October 25 is highly possible.

For weeks, we've outlined that high volatility is expected in the Brazilian currency and stocks after this weekend's first round of voting.

Traders are increasingly positioning for former President Jair Bolsonaro's eldest son to beat the socialist. As we've pointed out, this could set up the next big squeeze.

So far, the election trade in Brazil is gathering steam: currency volatility is surging, bullish stock options have erupted, and Polymarket odds give Bolsonaro roughly a 55.6% chance of winning.

The Brazilian real's one-week implied volatility has jumped above 31%, its highest level since late 2022. That exceeds the one-month measure, which captures both voting rounds but remains below 25%, highlighting the extreme concentration of risk ahead of Sunday.

Open interest in options on the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) has hit a record of 9 million contracts, driven mostly by calls. Demand for bullish options on the main equity benchmark Ibovespa index has also increased since late August.

Citigroup and JPMorgan analysts have told clients to use options that would benefit from a stronger real, while Brazilian hedge funds, including Ibiuna and Verde, have told clients they have positioned themselves with options for a potential stock rally.

"We expect the biggest surprise to come in the first round, with Flávio likely to finish ahead of Lula," Fabricio Taschetto, CIO at Ace Capital, wrote in a note. He added that the market reaction could exceed the move already priced into options.

BofA analyst David Beker told clients, "Brazil outperformed LatAm and global markets this week. Focus is on the first round of elections on Sunday."

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/02/2026 - 16:40

Schumer & The Democrats' "Alinsky-Grade Cloud Of Gaslight"

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Clusterfuck Nation,

The Ancient Parable

"I will throw you in prison. I want Chinese style communism to happen inside of the democratic party right now. I want to do cultural revolution shit."

- Hasan Piker, DSA Spox

Translation: Chuck Schumer knows that the Democrats have already been thwarted from rigging the election, from flooding the polls with illegal immigrant voters, with dead voters, with voters who moved out of state but still got mail-in ballots sent to their old addresses, with voters registered as living in Walmart parking lots, and so on. Chuck Schumer knows that the Civil Rights Division of DOJ is sending hundreds of lawyers to observe the action in swing state polling places. ICE might even be on hand to see who turns up.

So, Chuck Schumer is pretending that the Republicans will try to do what the Democrats actually did in several previous elections (including the last midterm, 2022, viz., AZ, GA, NV), and would have liked to do in this midterm, but can't. The Democrats will holler like crazy about it before the election to plant this idea in credulous minds. They will jump up and down going woo-woo-woo on Election Day itself to water the idea. And after the election they will blitz every critical precinct with lawsuits to prevent the vote from being certified, using select "activist" judges to issue TROs and writs to delay election results and de-legitimize the vote.

And if none of that avails - which it won't - they'll call out their ground troops, Antifa, BLM, Free Palestine, LGBTQ2S+, the furious transsexuals, the hysterical cat ladies, and suchlike to make a giant ruckus so as to provoke the president to invoke emergency powers to quell the mayhem. And then they'll point at Mr. Trump shrieking, "See! Tyrant!"

Chuck Schumer is such a shithead. Everybody knows that he intends for the Democratic Party to inflict lawfare and commit warfare on the midterm election (in that order), and hence on the American people, behind an Alinsky-grade cloud of gaslight claiming the other side is doing it.

Of course, it's the president's constitutional duty (Article II, Section 3) to take care that the laws be faithfully executed. You have seen that Mr. Trump is taking a good deal of care vis-à-vis this midterm election to avoid any hint of interference. You can infer that's at least one reason we have seen no indictments of the Deep State sedition artists operating so brazenly since 2016.

By the way, doing what's possible to make sure that only citizens can vote is taking care to faithfully execute the law, in case there's any question about that. A September 25 SCOTUS decision in Department of Homeland Security v. League of Women Voters (No. 26A308), a 6-3 majority (usual suspects dissenting) paused by lower-court judge Sparkle Sooknanan that had blocked the Dept. of Homeland Security's Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements system - further proof that the Lefty-left won't abide any restrictions on who can vote.

The SCOTUS stay allows state and local officials to match their voter rolls against federal Social Security records, to sort out who can legally vote. AI could do this with novel efficiency. The catch is, states' participation is voluntary. Only twenty-seven states have moved to participate in this record-sharing. Another catch is that SCOTUS waited, for unknown reasons, before issuing their ruling until well into the "90-day rule window" (in the National Voter Registration Act) that doesn't allow actual changes in the voter rolls during this period, only identification of problems. We'll see if any of that dissuades non-citizens from attempting to cast a vote.

You have to wonder why the Democratic Party is acting like they've already won the midterms. After ten years of narrative control through their allies in the network media and what's left of the major newspapers, the Democrats apparently believe that if you assert an outcome often enough, Oprah Winfrey style, it will come true.

It's just another gaslighting op. Look at the Democratic Party's marquee candidates, a ragtag and bobtail of avowed jihadis, communists, neo-Jacobins, and plain old creeps such as Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, Melat Kiros in Colorado, Darializa Avila Chevalier and Claire Valdez in New York, Angie Nixon in Florida, James Talarico in Texas, and Troy Jackson up in Maine. The old Chuck Schumer / Hakeem Jeffries wing of the party pretends to support this rabble, who have declared they are merely running under the party's banner for convenience and aim to deep-six the likes of Schumer and Jeffries at the first opportunity.

Will the Democrats still try to cheat their way through the midterms despite the obstacles and disincentives piling up around them? Probably, yes, because that will trigger conflict between the states and the Feds, and post-election chaos is what the party needs to keep hope alive, as they like to say. They want the results to remain in limbo as long as possible, with maximum lawfare around it to further confuse and confound the outcome.

It's in their nature. They are the scorpion riding the frog across the river in the ancient parable.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/02/2026 - 16:20

Seagate, Western Digital Crater After Toshiba Breaks Hard-Drive "Supply Discipline" Pact

For most of 2026, the bull case for the HDD duopoly could be summarized in one sentence: nobody is building new factories. On Friday, someone did.

Shares of Seagate (STX) and Western Digital (WDC) tumbled more than 10% on Friday, standing out like a sore thumb on a day when the Nasdaq hit all-time highs, after Nikkei reported that Toshiba plans to double its hard disk drive production capacity to grab a bigger slice of the AI data center storage boom.

This is how Goldman's TMT desk summarized the Nikkei story first thing in the morning (full note available to pro subs):

Japanese technology group Toshiba plans to double production capacity for hard disk drives used in artificial intelligence data centers within fiscal 2027 as the AI boom propels data storage demand. The company will invest roughly 60 billion yen ($380 million) to expand facilities in the Philippines... The Japanese player's share by storage capacity stands at just over 10%, but it aims to reach 30% in the medium term. The Philippine expansion marks the company's first major HDD investment in around five years. Along with adding production lines at the plant, Toshiba will handle new products that increase per-unit memory capacity by as much as 40%.

By midday, Goldman's US equities desk flagged the "memory names, WDC (-10.9%) and STX (-11.6%)" as the "standout laggards" in an otherwise green tape, where AI winners were up 1.4% and NDX and NVDA had just printed all-time highs.

To be sure, a 10% drop is just a flesh wound for stocks that have tripled. Even after Friday's puke, STX is still up some 208% YTD and WDC is up 141%, compared to a "mere" 22% for the Nasdaq 100.

But when you're priced for perfection, it's not the size of the hit that matters, it's where it lands.

The One Thing That Wasn't Supposed To Happen

Recall that the entire HDD up-cycle (as well as memory, chips, etc., pretty much everything in the semiconductor commodity chain) has been built on the premise of supply discipline, i.e., that none of the three remaining hard drive makers would add unit capacity, and that all exabyte growth would come from cramming more terabytes into each drive. Here is how Bernstein put it after hosting Seagate management on a non-deal roadshow in August (emphasis ours):

None of STX, WDC, or Toshiba are adding drive unit capacity, keeping industry-wide HDD supply structurally disciplined. Seagate management explained that its factories are effectively full, and rather than expanding units, management is targeting roughly 25% CAGR in nearline exabyte shipments purely by increasing capacity per drive via HAMR... building a new factory would take at least two years, which management has no plans to do.

Bernstein then went on to make STX its top pick precisely because "the broader industry's inability to scale supply keeps supply disciplined."

Well, oops: as of this morning, a third of "the broader industry" just announced it is scaling supply.

Regular readers will recall that we have seen this movie before. Back in May, in "China Begins Flooding The Market With DRAM And NAND Chips", we noted that Seagate's CEO had told JPMorgan that building new factories would "take too long," and warned that once someone else steps in to fill the supply gap, the supply tightness that justified the memory ETF rally would collapse. That time it was CXMT and YMTC on the memory side, which is only getting started with the old Chinese "capture market share by dumping products at below market prices" trick. This time it's an old friend in spinning rust, and it happens to be in the Philippines rather than Hefei.

And yes, the timing is apt for another reason. Rosenblatt points out that hyperscalers are now negotiating long-term agreements (LTAs) extending into 2029-2031, and Toshiba's expansion "introduces a credible medium-term supply risk, giving customers incremental negotiating leverage." Evercore adds that while Seagate "has allocated the majority of its nearline exabytes into calendar year 2028," Western Digital is still "negotiating long-term agreements extending to calendar year 2031." Put differently: 2027-28 pricing is largely locked in. What the market is repricing is the back end of the curve, which, for stocks trading on out-year earnings power, is the part that matters.

"Overdone"... Says Everyone With A Buy Rating

Predictably, the sell-side, which is unanimously bullish - and very wrong today - on both names, rushed to defend the duopoly. The best arguments:

• Citi (Buy, WDC PT $740, STX PT $1,300) argues the bottleneck isn't Toshiba's factory but its suppliers: "Unlike STX and WDC, Toshiba does not internally source their own media and heads," so "in order to double their current EB capacity they would also need their external component suppliers to also significantly raise capacity – which we believe could limit the impact of total EB supplied to the market."
• Morgan Stanley (Overweight, buying the dip) says "the gap between HDD supply and demand through calendar 2028 still looks wider than Toshiba's planned addition," and notes Toshiba lacks leading-edge capacity and heat-assisted magnetic recording (HAMR) technology.
• Rosenblatt (Buy, WDC PT $800, STX PT $1,400) reads the news as "more about Toshiba reclaiming lost market share rather than the stated 30% market share ambitions," and continues "to see support for sustained pricing power from a worsening supply demand imbalance due to AI."
• Bloomberg Intelligence says the plan "looks more like validation of stronger AI and data-center storage demand than a near-term supply threat."

Translation: Street targets now sit 50% to 90% above Friday's price, which is either a screaming buy signal, or more correctly, a reminder that price targets tend to follow price, not the other way around.

Goldman, for its part, didn't need to rush out a defense because it already had one on file. At last month's Communacopia conference, Goldman's James Schneider came away from Seagate CFO Gianluca Romano's presentation with three takeaways:

1. Seagate sees strong demand trends as continuing to support pricing uplift and margins through FY27;
2. HAMR volumes well on track to cross over PMR by the end of calendar 2026;
3. The company expects to continue high-yield debt retirement and pivot to share repurchases.

And just this week, Goldman's Korea memory team, reading across from Micron's results, said it expects "2027 and 2028 memory S/D to be much tighter than 2026," with customers "requesting longer duration and larger supply" agreements. Not exactly the backdrop for a glut.

The HAMR Moat

The real question is whether Toshiba's doubling matters as much as the stock reaction suggests. Some napkin math: going from "just over 10%" of industry exabytes to roughly double that by FY27 adds something like 10% to total industry exabyte supply, spread over two years. Meanwhile, Seagate alone is targeting ~25% nearline exabyte growth per year through HAMR. In other words, Toshiba's plan sounds big in a headline, but in exabyte terms it's a rounding error relative to what the HAMR transition is already adding, if, that is, Toshiba's head and media suppliers cooperate (see Citi above).

Which brings us to the part of the story the market may be glossing over: this isn't a level playing field. Seagate is the only player shipping HAMR at scale, and as Bernstein showed, its areal density lead already translates into faster exabyte growth than WDC...

... and, per Bernstein's forecasts, a gross margin that crosses above WDC's in FY27 and keeps climbing toward the mid-60s.

Which is also why Bernstein, back in August, said that while "a rising tide is lifting all boats," STX's HAMR lead "is why it is our top pick." If the tide is now going to recede a bit as Toshiba adds supply, the boat with the weakest areal density roadmap is the one most exposed. Hint: it's not Seagate, which may explain why WDC is now down more from its June peak than STX.

Meanwhile, The Picks And Shovels Rally

One more thing: equipment names catching a bid on the news included Veeco (+11%), whose data storage business sells ion beam deposition and etch tools used to make HDD read/write heads, i.e., a direct beneficiary of anyone (Toshiba or its suppliers) adding head capacity. Aixtron (+7%) also rallied, although its MOCVD tools are mostly used for compound semiconductors (GaN, SiC, optoelectronics), so the HDD link there is tenuous at best.

Bottom Line

The analysts are probably right that Toshiba's ¥60 billion won't put a dent in HDD pricing through 2028: the volumes are sold, the LTAs are signed, and Toshiba still needs someone to sell it heads and platters. But the market wasn't pricing the next two years; it was pricing a decade of monopoly-like discipline in an oligopoly of three.

The lesson from today is one which the rest of the world (and especially European car makers) are painfully familiar with: in commodity hardware, the cure for high prices is high prices, and sooner or later somebody in Asia builds a factory.

Whether this is the start of that cycle or just another buyable dip in an AI super-cycle (the sell-side which stands to make a killing the longer the AI bubble rolls on unanimously votes for the latter, understandably) will depend on one thing: whether Seagate and WDC respond with capacity plans of their own. If they do, the "supply discipline" thesis is over. If they don't, Toshiba just bought itself some market share at the top of the cycle.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/02/2026 - 15:47

"Told You To F--k Yourself": GOP Senator Tells Trump Off In Profanity-Laced Leaked Texts

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) unloaded on President Donald Trump in a series of profanity-laced private text messages that are now spilling into public view as the retiring Republican prepares to release a tell-all book about his battles with the president and MAGA world.

The fiery exchanges, revealed in reporting on Tillis' forthcoming memoir, How to Lose Friends and Antagonize Presidents, show the North Carolina senator speaking to Trump in remarkably confrontational terms.

"I still want to help but I don't take this bullshit from anyone, including you Mr. President," Tillis wrote in a May 22 message, according to the texts published by POLITICO.

"Save that shit for the cowards who don't care if you fail," the retiring senator continued. "I care if you fail and right now we are failing."

In a June 6 message, the senator pushed back against the suggestion that Trump had threatened him with a Republican primary challenge.

"If you had ever threatened me directly with a primary, I would have immediately told you to fuck yourself, and I would have announced my retirement immediately," Tillis wrote in another stunning text.

"Save those threats and head games for cowards and fools," the outgoing lawmaker added.

Notably, POLITICO did not publish Trump's replies or the preceding messages that prompted Tillis' angry responses.

Tillis announced in June 2025 that he would not seek reelection after opposing Trump's sweeping reconciliation legislation. The president blasted the senator in a Truth Social post as a "talker and complainer, NOT A DOER!" and publicly floated supporting a primary challenger.

Tillis raised eyebrows when he held up Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve, refusing to support him until the Department of Justice ended its investigation into then-Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Tillis dropped his blockade after the probe was closed in April.

Republican Michael Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chairman endorsed by Trump, is running to replace Tillis in North Carolina's open Senate seat against former Gov. Roy Cooper (D).

    OCTOBER ONLY.$10 OFFYOUR NEXT ORDER.$30 min. Ends Oct 31. One per customer.GET MY $10 OFF →Signs you up for ZeroHedge Store emails. Can't be combined. Every order helps support ZeroHedge. Tyler Durden Fri, 10/02/2026 - 15:25

Iran's Disappearing Oil Is Becoming Everyone's Problem

Authored by Natalia Katona via OilPrice.com,

Iranian oil is disappearing from the market just as its biggest buyer returns for more. China's recovering crude demand is colliding with the loss of a supplier that sustained its independent refiners through the crisis, forcing them to compete for increasingly expensive alternatives. The consequences reach beyond China: every replacement barrel tightens supplies for other buyers, while Tehran faces a growing incentive to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, which is now carrying an unexpectedly strong 13 million barrels a day (just 5 million below pre-crisis level), while its own oil remains trapped.

Iranian crude has long been an underestimated part of the global oil balance. After Bashar al-Assad's government fell in December 2024, breaking the political relationship that sustained Iranian shipments to Syria, China became Iran's only crude buyer - in 2025, it received an average of 1.4 million b/d. The war initiated by the US and Israel in late February initially made Iran even more important to Chinese buyers: while Tehran blocked other tankers from crossing Hormuz, its own cargoes passed freely, lifting Chinese intake of Iranian oil to around 1.76 million b/d in April.

That competitive edge ended with the US blockade announced on April 13. Loaded tankers could no longer leave the Gulf, while empty vessels could not enter. Loadings at Kharg Island, Iran's main export terminal, collapsed from 1.8 million b/d in March to 260,000 b/d in May. A June 17 memorandum allowing Iranian cargoes to pass for 60 days offered temporary relief: loadings recovered to 740,000 b/d in June and 890,000 b/d in July. But the reprieve expired in August, shipments slumped again to 250,000 b/d, and no Iranian loadings were observed in the Gulf in September.

The more important part of the story, however, was unfolding outside the Strait. Iran had accumulated a vast floating stockpile that allowed deliveries to China to continue even when fresh cargoes could not leave the Gulf. In mid-April, that cushion stood at about 160 million barrels, spread across waters around South, Southeast and East Asia. Drawing on those stocks, China still imported 1.37 million b/d of Iranian oil in May, just 10% below February's level. But the buffer was shrinking; floating storage fell to 106 million barrels by mid-June before the temporary reopening replenished it to 128 million by mid-July.

That replenishment of available floaters has since stopped. China still received 980,000 b/d of Iranian crude in August, but only 475,000 b/d in September, with arrivals ceasing from September 26 (all of the last arriving cargoes had been loaded in June).

Iran still has around 86 million barrels on the water, the lowest volume since January 2025. Yet 23 million barrels (more than a quarter) are trapped inside the Gulf. The total has barely changed since Chinese arrivals have wound down to an almost complete halt over the past two weeks, with evident loadings in the Kharg island stopping completely. With onshore storage gradually filling up (Kpler data suggests Iranian storage tanks are now 60% full, storing around 70 million barrels), Iran will face the inevitable choice of cutting production. Whilst roughly 2.2 million b/d of production is relatively safe due to demand from its refineries, Tehran's pre-war crude output of 3.2 million b/d seems to be no longer achievable.

For China's 'teapots' (the smaller independent refineries concentrated in Shandong province), this removes a cornerstone of their crude supply. Accounting for roughly a fifth of Chinese crude imports, these refiners have built their purchasing strategies around discounted sanctioned barrels, particularly from Iran and Russia. Now they must search for barrels farther away, from the Middle East, West Africa and South America. In mid-September, ten Chinese independent refiners reportedly sent traders to Singapore to secure available supplies from the mentioned regions.

The shift is visible at Shandong's ports. Qingdao, connected by pipeline to 12 independent refineries, relied on Iran for 40% of its 690,000 b/d incoming flows in 2025. In recent months, it has increased purchases of Brazil's Tupi and Buzios grades and even started receiving Guyana's Golden Arrow in July, while still relying on Saudi and Russian supplies. Nevertheless, intake has fallen to a record low of around 150,000 b/d over the past three months.

At Dongying, on Shandong's northern Bohai coast, situated near 32 independent refineries, Russia and Iran supplied virtually all of last year's 330,000 b/d intake, accounting for two-thirds and one-third respectively. Iranian deliveries started to decrease in summer months, with just two cargoes arriving in August and just one in September. Total intake fell to a mere 220,000 b/d in September as crude-deprived refiners were compelled to cut refinery throughputs.

These refiners are being left with less oil and more expensive alternatives. Guyanese crude is particularly costly when long voyages coincide with an unprecedented shortage of very large crude carriers and record freight rates. To encourage independent refiners to increase runs, the Chinese government issued an additional 28.05 million tonnes of crude import quotas in late September, taking the annual allocation for non-state imports to a record high of 257 million tonnes. These quotas determine how much crude refiners are authorized to import, so the increase gives them room to buy more, but does little to make barrels available or more affordable.

Competition for Russian oil is intensifying, too. Chinese buying has reportedly pushed ESPO differentials to an all-time high premium of $28/bbl vs ICE Brent, while Urals is also trading $7-8/bbl above the same benchmark. Independents must also compete with state-owned buyers, which currently account for roughly half of China's seaborne crude imports, compared with 45% in February.

China's recovery is still at an early stage. Seaborne crude imports rose from 7.24 million b/d in August to 7.5 million b/d in September, but remain far below February's 11.5 million b/d. During April-July, imports had fallen to roughly half that pre-crisis level, depressed by the Beijing-mandated refinery product export ban, lower refinery runs and a gradual shift towards SPRs usage. China's strategic reserves (both state- and private-owned) remain at 1.12 billion barrels, down from 1.25 billion in April, but rebuilding imports while Iranian supplies disappear will put greater pressure on barrels available elsewhere.

For Tehran, the imbalance is becoming harder to tolerate. Peace negotiations continue without a breakthrough, its crude remains blocked, and its export revenues are squeezed. Meanwhile, oil from neighboring producers is moving through Hormuz at a surprisingly strong 13 million b/d. That recovery is both a relief for buyers and a vulnerability. As long as Iran cannot export, it has little economic incentive to preserve the arrangement allowing its neighbors' barrels through. Mounting financial pressure could eventually push Tehran to disrupt those flows, even more than it did ever before.

The market therefore faces two connected risks: China must replace Iranian oil as its demand recovers, and Iran may lose patience with a Strait that is reopening for everyone else. The disappearance of Iranian barrels is already tightening supply. A renewed disruption to Hormuz would make the cost of replacing them much higher.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/02/2026 - 15:05

California, 6 Other States Sue Trump Admin Over Funding Cuts To Immigration, Race Projects

Authored by Rachel Roberts via The Epoch Times,

California and six other states filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration on Wednesday after it moved to cut federal funding for programs involving immigration, race, and gender ideology.

California Attorney General Rob Bonta speaks in Los Angeles on April 15, 2024. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

The White House said the programs are not in the national interest.

The states accuse the administration of withholding federal funds approved by Congress, including about $810 million the White House moved to cancel before the fiscal year ended.

The lawsuit is the latest move in a battle between President Donald Trump and Congress over control of the nation's spending.

Funding 'Does Not Benefit Americans'

"President Trump is committed to utilizing all possible tools to cut wasteful and harmful government spending that does not benefit American citizens," the White House said in a Sept. 25. statement announcing the steps.

Trump last year utilized what the White House said were "long-neglected presidential authorities provided to him under the Impoundment Control Act" to deploy the first pocket rescission in almost 50 years.

President Jimmy Carter used the tactic in 1977.

"This year, he is continuing his commitment to the American taxpayer by utilizing a pocket rescission for another nearly $1 billion of the most harmful government spending," the White House said.

'Open Borders NGO'

Some $567 million of the withdrawn funds previously went to nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and what the White House termed "pro-illegal immigration programs" that provided services to refugees, those granted asylum, and other noncitizens.

The statement said some of these programs "put unaccompanied children in harm's way."

Of this $567 million, some $2.1 million went to Lutheran Immigration and Refugee Service Inc (DBA Global Refuge), which the White House described as "an open-borders NGO" run by Michelle Obama's former policy director, Krish O'Mara Vignarajah.

The statement said the organization's budget "more than quadrupled under the Biden administration, nearly all from government grants."

The administration intends to cut $40 million in funding to Southwest Key Programs, which faced a civil lawsuit from the Department of Justice alleging that it had, through its employees, subjected unaccompanied migrant children in its care to sexual harassment and abuse.

The lawsuit by the seven states sets up a fresh legal clash over the limits of presidential spending power, with the pocket rescission tactic drawing criticism from Democrats and some Republicans.

The states argue that the administration's efforts to withhold federal funds undermine Congress's exclusive power to control federal spending.

Filed in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California and led by California Attorney General Rob Bonta, the suit argues that the administration's refusal to spend appropriated money violates the Constitution's separation of powers, appropriations, and presentment clauses.

'Blatant Disregard'

"I continue to be appalled by President Trump's blatant disregard for the basic Constitutional framework of our government. Just because the president doesn't like a program doesn't mean he can defund it," Bonta said in a statement.

The White House sought last week to unilaterally withhold the funds using a pocket rescission - sending Congress a request to cancel funds so close to the end of a fiscal year that they expire before lawmakers can act.

In August 2025, Trump used the same maneuver to cancel $4.9 billion in appropriated funds for foreign aid spending.

While the Constitution gives Congress control of the public purse, the White House said in last week's statement the programs were being used to support illegal immigration, stoke racial tensions, and promote climate alarmism, including through international funding.

One of the programs cut, a $15 million Community Relations initiative funded through the Department of Justice, promoted "radical critical race theory and gender ideology," according to the White House.

Another $70 million is set to be cut from what the administration termed "Woke International Education," referring to various initiatives that "support wasteful and divisive projects, including doctoral dissertations on queer and trans community building in foreign countries," the statement said.

California is joined by Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, and Oregon in filing the lawsuit.

President Donald Trump speaks in the Oval Office on Sept. 30, 2026. Alex Brandon/AP Photo Tyler Durden Fri, 10/02/2026 - 14:35

Trump Says Inflation Will Pay Off The $40 Trillion Debt "Very Rapidly"

President Trump thinks 'certain levels' of inflation could take care of the $40 trillion national debt. 

President Donald Trump appears at the United Nations General Assembly in New York. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

"You know, inflation. Certain levels of inflation will also pay off that debt very rapidly. Very rapidly," he told TIME in an interview published Thursday, after the outlet pointed out has grown by about $11 trillion over his five years in office. In response, Trump first blamed Joe Biden, then the Fed, then hinted at a plan he wouldn't share.

"I know I'm the best in the world," Trump said. "The best - I don't want to tell you what those means are, but you can pay off the debt through other means. But the one thing that you can do is pay it off through growth, and we've never had growth like this."

Later he circled back, saying "the growth is going to pay off the debt" and that the Fed's hikes were "hurting our country more than inflation is hurting our country."

He didn't say what level of inflation he had in mind, or whether he wants the Fed to tolerate more of it. Earlier in the same interview, though, he blamed Biden for "the biggest inflation in history" and said he "inherited the greatest inflation in history," adding that "the only thing I have to get down now is the gas."

Headline CPI rose 3.4% in the 12 months through August, with core at 2.4%, according to the BLS. On Sept. 16 the Fed raised rates for the first time since July 2023 - a unanimous quarter-point hike to 3.75%-4% that included Trump's own pick for chair, Kevin Warsh - and penciled in another before year-end. Trump told TIME he "probably would have voted against the board" if he were Warsh, and has called for rates of 1% "or less."

On Thursday, the day TIME published the interview, the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.34%, its highest since 2002. It closed at 5.24%.

He's Floated This Before

None of this is new for the self-described "king of debt." In May 2016 he told CNBC the US could buy back its own bonds at a discount if rates went up. That was widely read as a default threat, so a few days later he went on CNN to walk it back. "You never have to default because you print the money, I hate to tell you, OK?" he said.

A month before that, he told the Washington Post he could wipe out what was then a $19 trillion debt "over a period of eight years" - a debt that has since more than doubled.

Buybacks are back, too. After the debt crossed $40 trillion and long-dated yields kept climbing, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tripled the cap on the first expanded buyback to $6 billion. As we noted at the time, yields surged anyway, since $6 billion barely registers against more than $2 trillion in gross issuance a year.

Bessent, for his part, prefers to talk about growth. In June 2025 he told CBS's Margaret Brennan that "everything has been alarmist" on inflation and that the US would never default. And the day after Treasury reported the $40 trillion milestone, he went on CNBC to say there was "nothing magic" about the number and "we can grow our way out of that."

The Part He Left Out

Last year we ran a piece arguing Bessent was effectively putting the national debt on an adjustable-rate mortgage by leaning on floating-rate financing, which also projected the debt would top $40 trillion by the end of fiscal 2026 - it got there in mid-August, about six weeks ahead of schedule.

Back in April 2025, Bloomberg's Simon White made the case that higher inflation and a weaker dollar - where US policy seemed to be headed - were consistent with a falling debt burden. But he warned that unlike Britain's post-WWII "beautiful deleveraging," erratic policymaking could wreck trust in the dollar system, spark capital flight and end up adding to the debt.

Nick Giambruno spelled out the mechanics in July: financial repression, where the government keeps interest rates below inflation and the difference quietly moves wealth from savers to the Treasury. With 9% inflation and 4% rates, he noted, that's a 5% transfer every year, and it compounds.

It has worked before. A 2011 BIS paper estimated negative real rates wiped out debt worth 2-3% of GDP a year in the US and UK between the late 1940s and the 1970s. But that was under Bretton Woods, with interest-rate caps, captive domestic buyers and capital controls - and the paper found financial repression works best "when accompanied by a steady dose of inflation."

The catch is that it only works if the Treasury can borrow below the inflation rate. Right now it can't: the 10-year yields nearly two points more than headline CPI, interest on the debt already runs over $1 trillion a year, and everything that matures gets rolled at today's rates.

Getting real yields back below zero would take a Fed willing to cut into rising prices - the 1% "or less" Trump keeps asking for - or something like the rate caps and captive buyers of the 1940s. Trump didn't say whether either one is among the "other means" he wouldn't name.

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/02/2026 - 14:15

Airlines Plan 'Rescue Flights' For Stranded Israelis In UAE After FlyDubai Incident

Via The Cradle

Israeli national airline El Al announced on Friday that it had canceled flights scheduled to bring Israelis home from Dubai after the UAE withdrew landing permits for Israeli carriers.

"Due to the cancellation of approval for Israeli companies to land in Dubai, as was reported by the authorities in Israel, we are forced to cancel, at this stage, our rescue flights," the airline said in a statement posted on social media.

AFP/Getty Images

El Al said it remains prepared to operate charter flights to Dubai to bring Israeli citizens home as soon as it receives official approval.

The Israeli airline did not explain why the landing permits had been withdrawn. Emirati authorities have not provided an explanation.

Israeli passengers were stranded in the UAE after an incident on a FlyDubai flight from Dubai to Tel Aviv. The plane’s copilot allegedly stabbed the captain and tried to crash the aircraft before passengers and crew managed to enter the cockpit to restrain him.

Other FlyDubai pilots who happened to be passengers on the flight made an emergency landing in the Saudi city of Tabuk.

Emirati authorities ordered an investigation to establish the circumstances and motives behind the incident. Israeli authorities quickly claimed the incident was a terror attack.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed in a Fox News interview that the copilot had undergone "Islamist radical indoctrination" and that the man was suicidal. Netanyahu gave no evidence for the claim.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz went further, calling the incident an “attempted jihadist terrorist attack” and saying the copilot intended to crash the aircraft with everyone aboard.

One of the passengers, 50-year-old Yaniv Hayun, claimed that he ran to the cockpit after the stabbing and stabilized the plane after it plunged 20,000 feet toward the ground. 

Hayun, the owner of a plumbing company in Israel, has no background in aviation. He claimed​ he knew how to pull the plane out of its nose-dive, saving more than 170 people, after watching an aircraft crash TV show.

A pilot interviewed by CNN said that aspects of the plane's fall “did not make sense” and that, had the plane plunged so fast, it would have “disintegrated completely.”

The pilot in the CNN OutFront clip is Aaron Murphy, a commercial pilot and flight instructor. He is sitting in a flight simulator recreating the Flydubai FZ1073 incident so viewers can see what the cockpit and the aircraft itself would have looked like during the sudden… https://t.co/SV6zmXfCCa pic.twitter.com/JOZiSn9nwv

— xpos (@blame_d_cat) October 1, 2026

One day before the incident took place, Netanyahu held a security establishment assessment and talks with opposition leader Yair Lapid over an alleged, pre-Israeli election “security threat” that the premier had announced earlier on Tuesday. 

The FlyDubai incident has proven politically useful for Netanyahu, who met with Hayun in front of the media, hailing him as a hero. Netanyahu is seeking a seventh term as prime minister in Israel’s upcoming Knesset elections, scheduled for October 27.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/02/2026 - 13:55

Relatives Of Renee Good Sue Government, ICE Agents Over Fatal Shooting

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Renee Good's family on Oct. 1 sued the U.S. government and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers, alleging violations of the law occurred in the fatal shooting of Good in January.

The civil complaints were lodged in federal court in Minnesota, where Good was shot by an ICE officer after she declined to stop her vehicle and drove toward an agent during a traffic stop.

The complaints say that the agent who shot Good violated the U.S. Constitution's Fourth Amendment, which bars unreasonable searches and seizures; government policy that only permits deadly force when there is an imminent threat of death or serious injury; and federal law by committing battery without any legal justification for the shooting.

He and other Department of Homeland Security (DHS) personnel at the scene also inflicted emotional distress upon Good by illegally confining her even though she had not committed or threatened any violence, nor broken any law.

The filings say Good, who was with her wife, Becca Good, had stopped in her neighborhood and honked her horn to alert neighbors that federal officers were there to conduct immigration enforcement operations. They claimed Good was attempting to "drive slowly away" when she was shot.

The lawsuits seek damages. One requests a bench trial; the other requests a jury trial.

"Renee told masked agents she wasn't mad at them; her last words clearly reflected her state of mind. Renee had the right to speak, express herself, assemble, observe and leave the scene unharmed and alive," said Antonio M. Romanucci, founding partner of Romanucci & Blandin and one of the lawyers representing Good's family.

"Today, these lawsuits are the beginning of the ultimate legal weapon in uncovering the truth behind this unlawful use of deadly force and the nefarious conspiracies behind the invasion of American cities by American law enforcement officers."

Brett Ganger, Renee Good's brother, said in a statement, "I stand here with fierce determination to do what is right for my sister, for her children, and for our country - and that is to insist on accountability."

Becca Good added: "What happened to us should never happen to any family. No child should grow up without a parent because of it. No one should lose their sister or their daughter. No one should have to live without their soulmate. Accountability - real accountability - is the only way to make sure that no other family has to go through what we have."

The White House and DHS did not return requests for comment by the time of publication.

A Department of Justice spokesperson told The Epoch Times via email that it does not comment on pending litigation or investigations.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/02/2026 - 13:25

Digging Starts On New $16 Billion Train Tunnel Project Under Hudson River

Elected officials in helmets and yellow jackets gathered in New Jersey on Monday for the ceremonial launch of a massive boring machine that in days will begin drilling through the solid rock of the Palisades Cliffs in New Jersey, the initial phase of the Hudson Tunnel Project from New Jersey to New York Penn Station.

The new tunnel is just one part of a massive infrastructure project designed to ease the congestion of trains traveling in and out of New York City.

The existing tunnel was built in 1910.

The project will add two tunnels under the Hudson River for Amtrak and NJ Transit trains, which transport hundreds of thousands of commuters daily between New York and New Jersey. Its estimated cost is $16 billion, and completion is projected for 2035.

Under President Joe Biden, the Department of Transportation authorized $11 billion in grants and financing for the Hudson Tunnel portion of the project.

In October 2025, White House Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought announced it was freezing federal funding for the project over "unconstitutional DEI principles."

But, as Nicholas Zifcak reports for The Epoch Times, New York and New Jersey sued the federal government, which was forced to reinstate funding on June 29 after U.S. District Judge Jeannette Vargas ruled Vought's move unlawful. The federal government initially appealed, but on Sept. 17 the Department of Transportation dropped the appeal.

"Did they try to stop us in two thousand different ways? Did they try to put a log in our path, whether it was from Washington, New York, New Jersey, did we say ... we are building this tunnel?" said Sen. Chuck Schumer, speaking in North Bergen, New Jersey, at the drilling launch.

The Hudson Tunnel Project is part of the Northeast corridor modernization being implemented by the bi-state Gateway Development Commission. It is just one of 10 projects intended to upgrade the rail lines from Newark, New Jersey, to New York Penn Station.

The Vargas ruling allowed the Hudson Tunnel Project to move to the next phase: Two boring machines will begin drilling through one mile of hard rock under the Palisades Cliffs in New Jersey. The first phase is expected to be completed within one year, then the next phase of drilling under the river will begin.

A main part of the Hudson Tunnel Project is revamping the North River Tunnel.

The existing two-track North River Tunnel serving Amtrak and NJ Transit is one of the main reasons for delays in and out of Penn Station for hundreds of thousands of daily passengers.

The North River Tunnel will be updated so that once complete there will be four rail lines in and out of Penn Station.

  OCTOBER ONLY.$10 OFFYOUR NEXT ORDER.$30 min. Ends Oct 31. One per customer.GET MY $10 OFF →Signs you up for ZeroHedge Store emails. Can't be combined. Every order helps support ZeroHedge. Tyler Durden Fri, 10/02/2026 - 12:55

Another Tanker Struck & Damaged By Iran In Strait Of Hormuz

Update(1233ET): On Friday there are reports of another foreign tanker which has been struck and damaged in the Strait of Hormuz. Several similar drone attacks have occurred this week, and over the last few days - however unlike with prior attacks these latest are not being heavily featured in the media, and have also made surprising little impact on oil prices.

New UKMTO alert: Another tanker struck and damaged.

6th alert in last couple of days pic.twitter.com/CTMHttKNET

— Chris Shipping 🚢🚢 (@christankerfund) October 2, 2026

*  *  *

The US has deployed two additional Patriot missile batteries to Saudi Arabia and Qatar to protect energy infrastructure from aerial threats, according to a new report, reinforcing the urgent need to defend allied energy infrastructure ahead of potential renewed strikes on Iran. The report came before Thursday's news that the Department of War is sending a third aircraft carrier strike group and additional Marine Corps ships to the region.

Axios reported late Thursday that one Patriot battery was sent last month to protect a key Saudi oil facility, while another was deployed to defend a natural gas plant in Qatar.

"The U.S. military transferred batteries and interceptors to the Middle East from other regional commands, raising concerns about readiness in other parts of the world," the report said.

Trump told reporters yesterday that he was considering renewing a bombing campaign in the coming weeks. "Now I have to make a decision: either Iran signs the deal, or it won't exist any longer," he warned.

The urgent need for two more Patriot batteries in the region, designed to intercept aircraft, cruise missiles, certain ballistic missiles, and one-way attack drones, comes as Iran and proxy forces have hit critical energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

The latest attack on Saudi infrastructure came last month, when Iranian proxies hit the critical East-West pipeline, rendering it inoperable for weeks. Flows were restored only last week. Meanwhile, the latest Goldman data shows Hormuz crude flows have returned to pre-war levels as Tehran's grip on the critical maritime chokepoint erodes.

Also overnight, a report said the DoW is preparing to send a third aircraft carrier strike group and additional Marine Corps ships to the Middle East, adding 9,000 to 10,000 more troops to the region. That news sent Brent crude futures to nearly $104 a barrel overnight, but the oil benchmark slipped below $100 as trading moved through Asia and Europe and into the early US session.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/02/2026 - 12:33

CNN Concedes Republicans Will Keep The Senate If The Polls Miss Like They Have Before

CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten said Wednesday that Republicans have beaten their September polling in Ohio, Iowa and Michigan by wide margins in recent election cycles. If that pattern repeats in November, the GOP could keep control of the Senate despite current Democratic leads in all three states.

With just over a month before the midterms, Democrats have spent weeks enjoying a Senate map that looked impossible a year ago. Democrats need to net just four seats to win the majority. Republicans started the second half of President Donald Trump's term with what looked like a firm hold on the upper chamber. The Democrats' original plan was to defend Michigan, Georgia, and New Hampshire, then take Republican seats in Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, and Ohio. Then the map got bigger for the Democrats. Trump's falling approval numbers and voters' frustration with the economy gave Democrats openings in states the party had long given up on. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer took a victory lap almost immediately.

"We now have multiple paths for the majority," Schumer said. "We found new states - Iowa, Texas - which people a year ago weren't even paying attention to."

However, Michigan and Maine, two races Democrats once treated as near-certain wins, have become real contests. That forces the party to win more of its new territory just to stay even. Every "reach" state Schumer adds to the list has to make up for a seat that was supposed to be in the bag.

If Democrats win a majority in the Senate, they'll be able to block presidential nominees, including judges. A Democratic majority would turn every confirmation vote into a two-year war of attrition. However, some of the races Democrats are banking on going their way have a history of being wrong.

"But here's the question, what if the polls are wrong?" CNN anchor John Berman asked the network's chief data analyst Harry Enten.

"We've had really good Democratic polls coming out from Ohio, Michigan, Iowa," Enten told CNN. "And, you know, fool me once, shame on you. Fool me four times, I just have to ask the question, could it happen again?"

His data suggests it might. "In Iowa, where the Democrats have been getting really good polls, Republicans outperformed their September polls by nine points back in 2024. How about Ohio? Six points. How about Michigan? Five points."

He continued, "And I will note that the leads that the Democrats have in all of these races right now are under how much the GOP outperformed back in 2024."

Enten went back to 2018, Trump's first midterm, when Trump wasn't on the ballot, and the trend was the same.

"You can go back to Donald Trump's first midterm election. And it's the same exact story. Look at this, the GOP outperformed September polls in the major 2018 statewide races by six points in Iowa, six points in Ohio and eight points in Michigan."

The miss wasn't just a Trump-on-the-ballot effect. It showed up in every cycle Enten checked except 2022. "The bottom line is this," Enten said. "Over the last few cycles, whether it be 2018, 2016, 2020, 2024, Republicans have outperformed their September polls by at least five points in all these three states where Democrats right now are ahead, but not by a wide enough margin whereby if Republicans outperform their September polls again, it could become very, very interesting."

So, if the trend continues, the Senate map looks really good for Republicans.

"Let's just say that the GOP outperforms their Midwest polls, like they did in 2018 and 2024," Enten said. "Well, what do you get? You get a red Michigan. You get a red Ohio. You get a red Iowa. And all of a sudden, even if Democrats carry states like Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina and Alaska, well, guess what you get? You get a 50/50 Senate with J.D. Vance casting the tie-breaking vote."

The party could pull off a historic upset in Texas, hold Georgia, and flip North Carolina and Alaska, and still end up in the minority because three Midwestern states have behaved the same way in four of the last five cycles.

The prediction markets are less sure than the polls, according to Enten. "Well, the Kalshi prediction market says that Abdul El-Sayed is still a favorite in Michigan, but not an overwhelming one, 73 percent. Sherrod Brown in Ohio, 61 percent. That's basically a toss-up territory. And Josh Turek in Iowa, where he got a really good poll earlier this week, a 42 percent chance."

"In these midwestern Senate races, yes, Democrats have gotten good polls," Enten said. "But I would just say, hold on just a brief second here because history says, you know what, it might not end for them as well as the polls currently suggest it will."

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/02/2026 - 12:20

DOJ Alleges UCLA Law School Discriminated By Race In Admissions

Authored by Aaron Gifford via The Epoch Times,

The University of California - Los Angeles (UCLA) School of Law allegedly denied admission to whites and Asians in favor of lower-performing black and Hispanic applicants, the Department of Justice announced Thursday.

Under federal Civil Rights Laws and a 2023 U.S. Supreme Court decision that ruled against affirmative action practices in university admissions, the public institution could lose federal funding if it doesn't take corrective actions, Assistant Attorney General Harmeet K. Dhillon said in an Oct. 1 news release.

"Like many of its peer institutions, UCLA Law School runs a two-tiered admissions system whose academic bar for acceptance shifts up or down depending on the color of your skin," she said. "The use of race as a thumb on the scale that helps or disadvantages any student is illegal. The Department will continue to enforce equal treatment under the law everywhere - including in our nation's law schools."

The Department of Justice (DOJ) reviewed student application materials for the incoming classes of 2023, 2024, and 2025, which included personal statements and essay prompts that allegedly are designed to "elicit information about race."

Additionally, UCLA Law admissions staff allegedly instructed prospective students how to reveal their race in those sections of the application. This happened during race-based recruitment events, such as the Diversity Admissions Open House, Dhillon said.

Investigators also said they found that the university rejected white and Asian applicants who had the same LSAT scores as admitted black and Hispanic candidates. For 2024 and 2025 combined, half of the admitted black applicants had LSAT scores that were at or below 90 percent of the admitted white applicants, according to the news release.

The DOJ also reviewed internal university documents that Dhillon said showed intent to discriminate. This includes a statement allegedly from an assistant dean: "We are proud of the fact that 58 percent of this year's incoming class are students of color."

Another document from an assistant dean of admissions allegedly said, "If information about your ethnic/racial background would be helpful for law schools to gain a better sense of who you are, include it."

Dhillon said in a letter to UCLA officials disclosing the findings of her investigation that the University of California higher education system doubled down on its commitment to affirmative action practices after the 2023 Supreme Court decision, issuing a memo from the president's office that read, "student diversity remains a top priority for the University of California."

The DOJ examined seven years of UCLA Law applicant data, from 2019 to 2025, and found that the university did not "meaningfully change its admissions practices" in response to the Supreme Court decisions.

The federal agency recently announced similar investigative findings at UCLA Medical School, UC David Medical School, UC San Diego Medical School, George Washington University Medical School, Yale University Medical School, Duke University Law School, and UC Berkeley Law School.

Dhillon said her agency will engage in settlement negotiations with UCLA to bring the university's admissions practices into compliance. If those efforts fail, the DOJ will file a lawsuit.

UCLA Law School issued a statement on Oct. 1, maintaining that its admissions practices are not unlawful or discriminatory.

"UCLA School of Law is committed to making admissions decisions in compliance with all applicable laws, including the California Constitution and Proposition 209, federal statutes, and the U.S. Constitution," the statement said. "Students are admitted through a comprehensive, merit-based review process that considers each applicant's achievements and experiences. We are confident in our process."

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/02/2026 - 12:00

Judge Denies Lawyer's Motion To Find Lindsay Clancy Not Guilty In Murder Of 3 Children

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

The judge in the Lindsay Clancy murder case denied a motion by her lawyer asking to find his client not guilty in the deaths of her three children on Oct. 1.

Judge William Sullivan found county prosecutors had presented enough evidence for any reasonable jury to potentially conclude beyond a reasonable doubt Clancy was responsible for the murders.

"There was evidence introduced, both physical and circumstantial, that would permit a rational trier of fact to find beyond a reasonable doubt the elements of the charge of murder," Sullivan wrote in his ruling.

Attorney Kevin Reddington told the judge in a hearing earlier this week that prosecutors had not provided proof that Clancy killed her young children, despite having previously argued that Clancy was not guilty by reason of insanity. The first trial ended in a deadlocked jury on Sept. 4.

Reddington told the court his client seemed to have false memories of that night and any admissions she made were "uncorroborated." He asked the judge to issue a finding of not guilty and throw the charges out because the state did not prove its case.

Reddington declined to make a statement on the court's motion Thursday, his special adviser Daniel Nardo said in a post on X.

Clancy allegedly admitted guilt several times in January 2023.

Plymouth County District Attorney Timothy Cruz told reporters he has not yet decided whether to pursue a second trial following the mistrial. Cruz's office didn't immediately return a request for comment about the decision.

During the first trial, prosecutors argued that, despite struggling with mental health problems, Clancy knew what she was doing when she strangled her children - ages 5, 3, and 8 months - and then tried to kill herself.

In his ruling Thursday, Sullivan said it was up to the jury, not the judge, to decide whether to believe expert witnesses for the defense who testified that Clancy suffered from postpartum psychosis and was not responsible for her actions.

The judge declared a mistrial after the jury split 11-1 in favor of acquitting Clancy by reason of insanity.

Clancy's case is ongoing and she remains charged with murder. She remains at a psychiatric hospital awaiting the resolution of her case.

If convicted, she faces life in prison. She could also be acquitted and ordered to be confined to a mental health facility for treatment.

The next hearing in Clancy's case is on Nov. 2, when the two sides will meet with the judge for a post-trial mistrial motion hearing to discuss whether prosecutors want to dismiss or retry the case.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/02/2026 - 11:25