Zero Rss

CLARITY Act Failure Could Send Crypto Valuations Lower: Bernstein

Authored by Zoltan Vardai via CoinTelegraph.com,

The odds of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act’s (CLARITY) passage are dwindling as the US Senate is scheduled to begin summer recess at the end of this week, threatening another leg down for cryptocurrency valuations, according to wealth manager Bernstein.

Bernstein said that the Senate’s failure to pass the legislation could trigger an immediate negative “industry knee-jerk reaction,” which may result in another leg down for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.

“From a tactical standpoint, we expect the crypto market to bottom and start showing momentum towards late Q3 and early Q4 prior to the mid-terms,” Bernstein analysts wrote in a Monday report shared with Cointelegraph.

At the same time, however, the analysts said that Senate failure to pass the legislation may bring more proactive policy support from regulators, including the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which may accelerate rulemaking initiatives under Project Crypto.

Project Crypto is a regulatory initiative first announced by SEC Chairman Paul Atkins in July 2025, which was later expanded into a joint staff initiative between the SEC and CFTC in September 2025. The initiative aims to create a workable regulatory framework for digital assets using existing agency authority while Congress finalizes crypto market legislation under the CLARITY Act.

Bernstein said that the two agencies could provide more interpretive releases tied to the taxonomy of tokens, clear rules around decentralized finance (DeFi) and accelerate the innovation exemption for issuing tokens that would be exempted from securities status during a finite period.

CLARITY Act odds decline to 31%

Bernstein’s skepticism is supported by prediction market traders who are betting against the passage of the CLARITY Act before the end of 2026.

Odds of the legislation’s passage before the end of the year are now at 27%, down 11ppt in the past week and down 13ppt in the past month, according to Polymarket, which shows about $3.7 million has been wagered on that prediction.

Meanwhile, White House officials are reportedly weighing a bipartisan ethics counterproposal received on Thursday, following weeks of negotiations between Republican Senator Thom Tillis and Arizona Democrat Ruben Gallego.

The proposal would enable state attorneys general to sue the Department of Justice if it fails to enforce ethics laws against federal officials, three sources familiar with the matter told crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett.  

The CLARITY Act aims to establish the first regulatory framework for digital assets in the US, but it has been met with pushback from the banking industry, which argued that the current draft would allow crypto firms to offer yields on stablecoins without facing the same requirements as traditional financial institutions. 

On June 26, Galaxy Digital cut its odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 50%, warning that the US Senate is running out of time to move the crypto market structure bill before its August recess. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 11:30

Waymo Robotaxi Crash Rate 68% Lower Than Human Drivers, Study Finds

Though they've have racked up quite a few troubling anecdotes on America's roads, Waymo robotaxis have achieved a crash rate that's far lower than what's observed when humans are driving, according to a recent study published by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. A private scientific organization funded by insurance companies, IIHS is regarded by many as a superior font of accurate scientific conclusions compared to the government-run and lobbyist-vulnerable National Highway Transportation Safety Administration. 

According to the July IIHS study, "Rise of the Machines: Crash Experiences of Highly Automated Vehicles and Human Drivers," Waymo vehicles in autonomous mode posted "police-reportable crash involvement rates" fully 68% lower than human-operated vehicles in the same areas and years. Researchers studied crash rates in Austin, Los Angeles, Phoenix and San Francisco. Importantly, the IIHS studied data from 2021 to 2024; to the extent Waymo has improved its programming, the current relative performance may be even better. 

The Waymo edge was highest in Phoenix and Los Angeles (76% and 71% lower crash rates, respectively). San Francisco's Waymos posted a 35% lower crash rate. In a bit of a headscratcher in terms of the being a huge outlier, Waymo had a 4% higher crash rate in Austin. The study's authors note that the sample size in Austin was smaller for both Waymo and human drivers. 

Dozens of empty Waymos clogged a small street in an Atlanta neighborhood, preventing residents from leaving or returning to their homes 

Waymo vehicles really shine in regard to one type of accidents where human-driver inattention looms particularly large: The robotaxis' rate of rear-ending other cars and trucks was 91% lower than what's seen with human drivers. It's rate of being rear-ended was 40% lower; here, the result may spring from human inattention that leads to last-second hard braking that catches trailing vehicles by surprise. Waymos also sparkled in single-vehicle crashes, as the robotaxis experienced 85% fewer such crashes overall, and 81% fewer single-crash accidents with injuries. 

The encouraging IIHS report comes after Mountain View, California-headquartered Waymo has established a history of eyebrow-raising incidents that we've been all too happy to report on. In two of the more recent episodes... 

• In June, Waymo recalled its entire fleet (then comprising 3,871 vehicles) after some of the robotaxis drove dangerously in construction zones. Incidents included speeding, driving past ramp-closure signs, and weaving between traffic cones. The company said it would tweak its 5th-generation Automated Driving System (ADS) software so it would recognize and act appropriately in construction zones. 
• In May, 50 empty Waymo SUVs flooded a small residential street in northwest Atlanta in just an hour. Video captured a thicket of the vehicles facing both directions and simultaneously trying to figure out how to proceed.

So far, nothing as spectacular as how Douglas Quaid's wild robotaxi ride will end in 2084: 

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 11:15

The Bond-Salesman-In-Chief Has Fired The First Shot Of The Capital Market War That Follows The Trade War

By Benjamin Picton, senior market strategist at Rabobank

US equity markets approached record highs yesterday as traders basked in the afterglow of Donald Trump’s decision to (again) call off Iran strikes in favor of diplomatic efforts. The S&P500 closed almost 1.5% higher and the NASDAQ 100 was up by almost 1.8%. Sovereign yields pushed lower across Europe and North America with Treasuries likely encouraged by comments from Japanese Finance Minister Katayama yesterday that Japan intended to tap the Fed’s FIMA facility to defend the Yen in the future, thereby avoiding the necessity to sell Treasuries to fund Yen purchases.

The front Brent crude future fell by more than 7%, despite the fact that there is no confirmation of material progress in loosening restrictions on global energy flows. ICE gasoil futures declined by more than 8.5% despite Russia’s ongoing diesel export ban, continued Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure, the Houthis’ recent decision to spread the Iran conflict to Saudi oil infrastructure in the Red Sea and low water levels in the Rhine disrupting energy shipping and forcing freight rates higher. Similarly, Singapore gasoil spot prices were down by almost 11% yesterday. On those figures you would think all of the problems in product markets are solved. This again highlights the capriciousness of markets; it was only a few weeks ago that I was reading articles making straight-faced suggestions of an emerging oil glut.

While Hormuz certainly isn’t a Waterloo moment for Donald Trump just yet, he is obviously keen to find an offramp that satisfies key US strategic objectives of re-opening the strait without tolls, curtailing Iran’s nuclear program and regional influence, and – if at all possible – pushing Gulf states into the Abraham Accords and normalization of relations with Israel. Some progress has been made on the latter, but progress on the former two objectives continues to elude, giving this conflict more than a whiff of Middle-Eastern quagmires past.

While the Commander in Chief plays Battleship in the Gulf, the self-described bond salesman in chief, Scott Bessent, has possibly fired the first shot of the capital market war that we have long warned would follow the trade war and the now numerous proxy wars. All of these developments can be contextualized through the strategic competition between the United States and China, with Russia, the European Union, Iran, the GCC, Japan, South Korea, North Korea, Israel, Australia and others playing the role of proxies, satellites, supplicants, vassals, junior partners and bit-players to the two great powers. In this respect, the US Treasury’s support of the Japanese Ministry of Finance and the BOJ in defending the Yen may have been a financial Fort Sumter moment.

In supporting Japan’s efforts to defend its currency to stave off imported inflation pressures the USA not only takes out insurance against rising borrowing costs for the US Treasury while buying up assets that Bessent considers to be undervalued relative to Japan’s improving fundamentals, it also relieves competitive pressure on US manufacturers (currently in rude health according to yesterday’s manufacturing ISM) and pulls Japan closer into the US’ strategic orbit.

This is important as the Trump administration views Japan as an important partner for countering China’s dominance in industrial production – particularly shipbuilding, steel manufacturing and rare earths processing – and both partners have an interest in preventing Japan’s reflating economy from becoming an outlet for China’s production surplus. Might we see further Japanese restrictions on Chinese imports? Could the US decision to sell EUR (even in relatively small amounts) rather than USD have been a subtle message to Europeans about US policy capabilities?

Coordinated intervention between the Japanese Ministry of Finance and the US Treasury to manage the value of the Yen is perhaps the first concrete sign of the emergence of a new monetary order as foreshadowed by RaboResearch Global Strategist Michael Every several years ago in FX Wars. The post Bretton Woods system of mostly free-floating fiat with a constellation of international treaties intended to discourage state intervention and competitive devaluation has been on borrowed time due to the rise of neo-mercantilist China and the QE-driven currency devaluations of the 2010s.

Cooperation on managed exchange rates (and broader capital market dynamics) among allies may offer a path forward. However, intra-bloc accords only work if inter-bloc trade faces substantial barriers. Naturally, the US does not want to see a situation where the global role of the Dollar is undermined by developed market central banks holding larger and more diversified FX reserves, so watch as a system of “you scratch my back, I scratch yours” dollar swaplines emerges with common trade restrictions or other boons for US strategic interests as a kind of quid pro quo. Indeed, we have already seen this happen with the UAE’s decision to leave OPEC+ and coordinate with Israel on military matters following the extension of dollar swaplines.

So, once again we are witnessing momentous structural changes unfolding with geopolitical tensions forcing the pace. While it is certainly relevant and important, one shouldn’t be too captivated by the up/down moves of this week. What really matters is the signal for the medium to longer term.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 11:00

Bezos To Dump $4 Billion In Amazon Stock After Surge As Cramer Calls Sale A "Buzzkill"

Amazon founder Jeff Bezos plans to sell 15 million shares worth roughly $4.07 billion under a prearranged trading plan, according to a Form 144 regulatory filing. The planned sale comes after Amazon shares surged about 25% over the last several trading sessions.

The shares, which Bezos acquired as founder's stock in 1994, will be sold through Morgan Stanley Smith Barney. The filing showed no stock sales by Bezos during the previous three months, although he donated 220,200 shares to nonprofits in May.

The stock's rally follows last Thursday's earnings report, which showed solid AWS growth and profitability despite an outlook that disappointed investors. Revenue reached $200.61 billion, beating the Bloomberg consensus estimate, while earnings of $5.75 per share exceeded the $1.82 consensus estimate.

Meanwhile, CNBC's Jim Cramer called the planned sale "a buzzkill."

Cant begrudge Bezos for selling $4 billion shares...but what a buzzkill

— Jim Cramer (@jimcramer) August 3, 2026

Here are the latest Amazon insider transactions:

Bezos will still own 880.95 million Amazon shares after the sale, a stake currently valued at roughly $250 billion.

Perhaps Bezos needs another multibillion-dollar cash infusion for Blue Origin, his capital-intensive rocket company, which continues to trail Elon Musk's SpaceX.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 10:40

Suspected Arsonist Arrested In Spokane Wildfire; Former Lefty Gov. Inslee Blames Global Warming

Summary:

• Former Washington Gov. Jay Inslee Blamed Wildfires on "Climate Change"
• Suspected Arsonist, 37, Arrested in Connection With Old Trails Fire
• Spokane-Area Blazes Trigger Mass Evacuations and Emergency Declaration

Suspected Arsonist Arrested in Spokane's Largest Wildfire

After former Washington Governor Jay Inslee gaslit social media by blaming "climate change" for the Spokane County wildfire, CBS News reported that law enforcement officials in the county arrested a 37-year-old Spokane man on Monday in connection with starting the fire.

Aaron Farinacci, who has a prior manslaughter conviction, was booked on suspicion of first-degree arson and is being held on a $1 million bond.

Investigators focused on Farinacci after a witness reportedly saw him kneeling near the grass where the fire began. Deputies said he was carrying waterproof matches and a butane lighter when he was detained.

"We believe it was matches or a lighter. When he was detained ... he was found to be in possession of some waterproof matches and a butane lighter," a local sheriff said at a press conference on Monday, adding that Farinacci was only arrested in connection with the Old Trails Fire.

Yesterday, Governor Inslee (D-WA) said the fire in Spokane was from "climate change"

An arson suspect was just arrested pic.twitter.com/uj1WJC1gL5

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) August 4, 2026

The arrest comes as more than 700 buildings in the Spokane area have been burned to the ground, and more than 67,000 people are under evacuation orders.

The Spokane Complex Fire is now confirmed to be the most destructive wildfire in the history of Washington State.

To put this into better context - this wildfire would be the most destructive wildfire in the history of 43 other states. pic.twitter.com/yflLzz5dcG

— Mike Gagliardi (Tropics) (@Mike__Gagliardi) August 4, 2026

And then there's this:

I didn’t know climate change was homeless. https://t.co/wvQki5K72H

— AwakenedOutlaw⚒️ (@AwakenedOutlaw) August 3, 2026 Washington State Wildfires Trigger Mass Evacuations, Emergency Declaration

Thousands of people in Spokane County, Washington, have been evacuated as parts of the city of Spokane are under a "Leave Immediately" emergency as three wildland fires forced evacuations.

Spokane County Emergency Management describes the emergency as "Level 3: Go, Leave Now, Leave Immediately!"

Officials said 60,000 people within Spokane city limits have been evacuated. Spokane County Fire District 3 Fire Chief Cody Rohrbach said 640 structures were destroyed in the Old Trails Fire alone.

The county website states:

"There is an immediate threat to your safety—you need to leave NOW. Emergency services may not be able to assist you. You will not be allowed to return until conditions are safe."

As Tom Gantert reports for The Epoch Times, Washington Gov. Bob Ferguson declared a statewide wildfire emergency on July 31 and imposed a statewide ban on most outdoor and agricultural burning through Sept. 30 as drought, unusually high temperatures, and strong winds continue to fuel record-setting wildfires across the state.

The emergency declaration was issued ahead of what the National Weather Service described as a "particularly dangerous situation" Red Flag Alert, with "extreme" weather conditions.

According to the governor's office, Washington is experiencing its fourth consecutive year of statewide drought. More than 1,000 fires have burned approximately 425,000 acres this year, the highest total since 2021. More than 200,000 acres are now burning in 12 large wildfires across the state.

The statewide burn ban prohibits activities including yard debris burning, trash disposal, land clearing, weed abatement, and bonfires and campfires that are not contained in approved fire rings or fire pits. The ban does not apply to liquid- or gas-fueled stoves and grills used over nonflammable surfaces, permitted agricultural burning, or contained campfires in designated campgrounds and on private property.

The emergency proclamation also allows Washington to request additional resources through the Emergency Management Assistance Compact, a nationwide mutual aid system, and authorizes additional activation of the Washington National Guard to support firefighting operations as needed.

Ferguson also activated 110 members of the Washington National Guard to support firefighting operations across the state, according to the statement. Those National Guard members were in addition to 27 helicopter crew members activated earlier in July.

"This year has already been one of our busiest wildfire years on record, and we just started August," Commissioner of Public Lands Dave Upthegrove said in a statement.

"Our firefighters are already stretched thin across the state, and with more heat and wind expected this weekend and for the rest of the summer, any new spark on our tinder-dry landscapes can lead to another devastating wildfire. I'm urging all Washingtonians not to be that spark."

The fires are "really the worst natural disaster our region has faced," Spokane Mayor Lisa Brown said at a news conference Sunday afternoon.

Nearly 12,000 utility customers in Washington, the vast majority of them in Spokane, were without power Sunday, according to the utility tracker PowerOutage.us.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 10:35

Five Killed In Latest Ukrainian Drone Strike On Moscow As Civilian Death Toll Climbs

Ukraine has continued to conduct long-range drone strikes focused on the Moscow region, deep inside Russian territory. Zelensky has touted that he is ramping up the military pressure on Russia, and will force it to the negotiating table to end the war "by winter".

The latest overnight strikes killed at least five people and injured ten when a drone hit an industrial zone near Moscow. Several fires erupted in the aftermath of the attack on the Novoselki industrial zone outside the Russian capital.

Damage in Moscow region, via Telegram

Moscow's regional governor Andrey Vorobyov announced on Telegram, "Sadly, there have been fatalities and injuries... I extend my sincere condolences to the families and loved ones of the deceased."

Air defenses were active in the region, and it comes amid a broader Ukrainian campaign targeting Russian industrial zones and manufacturing. According to details in Russian media:

One of the wounded remains in serious condition, with doctors describing the injuries of seven others as moderate, the governor said. Two more people declined hospitalization after being examined by doctors, he added.

The victims sustained shrapnel and blast injuries, fractures, and soft-tissue and chest wounds, Vorobyev wrote.

Fires broke out at several locations in the industrial zone, including at a warehouse, while a power substation and an administrative building were also damaged by drone debris, the governor added.

In the village of Solnyshkovo, a drone damaged a private home and a vehicle, the governor said. No one was injured, he added.

At this point, there are hundreds of drones sent on Russia each night, which Ukraine describes as retaliation for heavy Russian ballistic missile attacks on its cities.

The Russian Defense Ministry announced Tuesday morning that 320 Ukrainian drones were intercepted and destroyed inside Russia in the prior 12 hours across several regions. It has decried these as terror attacks against civilians, including a horrific drone strike on a crowded beach.

It happened Monday at the Black Sea holiday village of Arkhipo-Osipovka, Gelendzhik resort area:

The beach was packed, many vacationers lounging near the turquoise waters when the drone slammed into the white sand and burst into a fireball.

Russian officials said seven people, including three children, were killed and 58 others injured by the explosion in the Black Sea resort town of Gelendzhik on Monday. The explosion was captured on video and shared on social media, and verified by NBC News.

The civilian death toll has been mounting. Russian Ambassador-at-Large Rodion Miroshnik said a total of 49 civilians have been killed and more than 340 others wounded in Ukrainian attacks inside Russia over just the past week.

Russian officials say air defenses repelled a drone attack on the Moscow region, Authorities say five people were killed and 10 injured as fires broke out in an industrial area in Chekhov district.

Emergency crews remain at affected sites as authorities monitor further drones. pic.twitter.com/J9lyUHHsAu

— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) August 4, 2026

Ukrainian civilians have also continued to suffer, with Russian attacks having killed three people in Sumy in the country's northeast, the head of the regional military administration said Tuesday.

"Two children and an elderly woman were killed in Russian (guided aerial bomb) strikes on Sumy tonight," Oleg Grygorov said on Telegram. "The girls were 5 and 10 years old. The children's bodies were recovered from under the rubble of their house," he described after six guided aerial bombs struck the city.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 10:20

US Core Factory Orders Unexpectedly Plunge Most In A Year

Despite the latest Manufacturing PMI surging to four year highs, US Factory Orders unexpectedly dropped in June (-0.3% MoM vs +0.2% MoM expected). This is the second monthly decline in the headline print in a row, but orders remain up 7.4% YoY...

Source: Bloomberg

Worse still, Core Factory Orders (excluding Transports), dropped 0.4% MoM (dramatically missing expectations of a 0.4% MoM rise). This is the first monthly drop since October and biggest MoM decline since April 2025...

Source: Bloomberg

Orders Ex-Defense also tumbled 0.4% MoM, down for the second month in a row.

So while the soft survey data is positive, the hard data is deteriorating.

The reason for that is a familiar one in this bifurcated economy, as we showed from ISM's respondents...

• Green ones from AI, semiconductor, electronics and machinery firms report strong demand from AI data centers, chips and defense.

• Red ones from metals, transportation, chemicals and consumer-related sectors report weak demand, tariffs, higher costs, geopolitical risks and pricing chaos.

Simply put, the AI supply chain is booming, Defense is enthused; the rest is not.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 10:15

Bitdeer Lands $4.7B Norway Lease With a16z-, Nvidia- And Dell-Backed Volta

Bitdeer Technologies Group (NASDAQ: BTDR) announced Aug. 4 that it has executed a 16-year colocation lease and services agreement for 121 IT megawatts at its Tydal, Norway campus, representing roughly $4.7 billion in contracted payments, with a renewal option that takes the potential total to $8.0 billion over 24 years. The announcement sent shares about 14% higher premarket.

The tenant is Volta Tydal AS, a subsidiary of Volta Infra Holdings, an AI infrastructure platform that emerged the same morning with $300 million in venture funding at a $2.4 billion valuation, co-led by Andreessen Horowitz and Altimeter Capital, with NVIDIA and Michael Dell participating. Dell Technologies is the technology provider at Tydal. Volta's end customer is an unnamed leading AI lab.

Bitdeer has turned an idle bitcoin mining campus into long-dated contracted revenue backed by bank credit, and it issued no equity and no warrants to do it.

Who does what Layer Party Role End customer Unnamed AI lab Buys compute. Contracted ~$10B over six years with Volta. Operator / tenant Volta Buys the NVIDIA GPUs (Dell supplies the hardware), owns and operates the compute, sells capacity to the lab. Pays Bitdeer rent. Landlord Bitdeer Owns the land, building, grid connection, power and cooling. Delivers 121 IT MW fitted to NVIDIA spec. Collects rent and service fees. Credit J.P. Morgan + one other global bank Issue ~$1.3B of letters of credit standing behind Volta's rent obligations.

Bitdeer is the landlord, not the compute operator. It does not buy or own the GPUs, so it carries no chip-obsolescence risk and no refresh cycle. It does not have to find AI customers. Under the modified gross structure it does not carry the electricity cost either, which Volta reimburses on a pass-through basis.

Bitdeer Tydal campus The terms Item Detail Contracted IT load 121 IT MW (~133 gross MW) Base term 16 years, plus one 8-year renewal option Contracted payments ~$4.7B base term; ~$8.0B with renewal Rate ~$202/kW/month average, modified gross; power reimbursed Escalators Contracted rate rises 3% a year, compounding, on both lease and services Revenue per IT MW ~$2.4M/year NOI margin (est.) ~90% Credit support ~$1.3B in letters of credit (J.P. Morgan affiliates + one other bank) Remaining capex ~$500M (~$4.0M per IT MW) Equity or warrants issued None Campus ownership retained 100% Delivery Phase 1 by Dec. 31, 2026; Phase 2 by Mar. 31, 2027 Tenant termination right No-fee exit at year 10

One line in that table needs unpacking. The 3% escalator means the rent does not stay flat. The contracted rate rises 3% every year and compounds, on the services fees as well as the base rent. So the $202/kW/month Bitdeer discloses is an average across all 16 years: the opening rate sits below it and the final-year rate well above. That is standard in long-dated data center leases, and it is why the headline total is far larger than 16 times the first year's rent.

The rate is the best in the sector

At $202/kW/month, Tydal prices at the top of the disclosed range for miner-to-AI conversions:

Deal Term Capacity Contracted value $/kW/mo Bitdeer / Volta (Tydal) 16 yr 121 IT MW $4.7B ~$202 (disclosed) TeraWulf / Anthropic (Hawesville) 20 yr ~401 MW ~$19B ~$197 (calculated) Hut 8 (Texas) 15 yr 352 MW $9.8B ~$155 (calculated) Cipher / Fluidstack (Barber Lake) 10 yr 168 IT MW ~$3B ~$149 (calculated) Cipher / AWS (Black Pearl) 15 yr 216 IT MW ~$5.5B ~$142 (calculated)

Bitdeer's $202 is stated in its Aug. 4 release as a 16-year average rate. Peer figures are ZH calculations from disclosed contract totals, terms and capacity. 

So... 

Bitdeer is selling services, not just space. This is a lease and services agreement, meaning Bitdeer operates the facility rather than simply renting it out. That is higher-margin and harder to displace than pure triple-net landlording, and it earns a rate to match. It also means the 3% escalator compounds on two revenue lines instead of one.

Norway prices above West Texas. European colocation commands a structural premium, and Tydal offers things the Permian Basin cannot: dual grid connectivity, local hydropower, an estimated PUE of approximately 1.1, and a carbon profile that matters to European customers and to an AI lab facing scrutiny on emissions. 

"This project will incorporate leading-edge NVIDIA GPU technology and frontier models from a leading AI lab into a data center that is powered exclusively through highly reliable, carbon-free energy sources," said Bitdeer CFO Michael G. Potter. 

Never Gonna Give You Up

Every converting miner faces the same problem - the tenants writing multi-billion-dollar AI checks are frequently young, private and unrated. Until that is solved, a signed lease is not something a bank will lend against. Bitdeer's competitors have solved it by selling equity: 

Cipher's Fluidstack lease at Barber Lake carries a Google backstop covering $1.4 billion of obligations. Google took warrants for roughly 24 million shares, about 5.4% of Cipher pro forma. TeraWulf's arrangements gave Google a stake of roughly 14%. Both companies bought their credit support with permanent dilution, at share prices set before the stocks re-rated.

Bitdeer got $1.3 billion of institutional credit support and issued nothing at all.

Moreover, the letters of credit are bank obligations, not tenant obligations. If Volta defaults, Bitdeer draws on J.P. Morgan and a second global institution rather than pursuing a private holding company through Norwegian courts. That $1.3 billion covers roughly five and a half years of early-term rent, and Bitdeer can terminate outright if Volta misses the credit-backstop milestones, a walk-away option most of its peers did not negotiate.

Bitdeer affiliates also retain 100% ownership of the campus, with no JV, no partial sale and no promote to a capital partner. Cipher formed a JV for its 1 GW Colchis site. TeraWulf sold its 50.1% Abernathy stake. Bitdeer kept the whole thing.

Bitdeer also intends to raise additional debt against Tydal, and expects the project financing to generate significant excess capital for other AI and HPC projects. Morgan Stanley, Barclays and Northland advised on the transaction, and leading institutions have been engaged for the financing. This is where the credit package pays off a second time. Contracted cash flows plus a bank-issued backstop is what makes a project financeable well inside what Bitdeer's corporate credit would command. Cipher priced senior secured notes at 7.125% on the strength of its Google backstop. Against only $500 million of remaining capex on a campus already energized and consented from its mining life, an over-raise is plausible.

Bitdeer also retains 47 gross MW of additional Tydal capacity, targeted for the second half of 2027 and outside this lease. It now has a marquee proof point and a live NVIDIA-spec campus with which to market it.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 09:55

Trump Admin Drafting Ban On Chinese Optical Transceivers To Protect Data Centers From Spying

The Trump administration is preparing to slap import bans on Chinese optical transceivers, targeting a critical component for US data centers as White House officials seek to protect infrastructure supporting the AI boom from Chinese espionage, Reuters reported.

These small, pluggable connectors convert electrical signals from servers, switches, and AI chip stacks into light for transmission over fiber-optic cables, then convert the light back into electrical data at the other end. Because these modules are critical to data centers, Chinese-made transceivers could potentially allow Chinese firms to steal data, install malware, or disrupt services at US facilities.

Sources told the outlet that the Federal Communications Commission is drafting import restrictions on Chinese optical transceivers, which could take effect this year.

"Transceivers definitely pose a risk," said Divyansh Kaushik, an AI policy expert at the Washington, D.C.-based advisory firm Beacon Global Strategies. "As the data center buildout scales up, you want to make sure the data center supply chain is secure from the outset," he added.

The restrictions would affect Zhongji Innolight, which controls about 27% of the global data center transceiver market and was recently added to a Pentagon list of companies allegedly linked to China's military.

Meanwhile, U.S. manufacturers Coherent and Lumentum could benefit significantly from the measure. Coherent shares are up 18% in premarket trading, while Lumentum shares are up 14%. Applied Optoelectronics is also up 18%. 

However, as Reuters noted, those U.S. companies "lack the scale to replace Chinese suppliers immediately."

Read Goldman’s trading desk take on optical networking and transceiver stocks. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 09:40

Shit Out Of Luck: 2 Dead In Outbreak Of Diarrhea-Causing Parasite: Officials

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Michigan authorities on Aug. 3 said two deaths are linked to the cyclosporiasis outbreak in the state, the first time cyclosporiasis-associated deaths have been reported since outbreaks began in the spring.

A farmer washes lettuce in a backyard urban farm in Los Angeles, on March 25, 2020. Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images

"Two deaths have been identified as part of the cyclosporiasis outbreak affecting Michigan," the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services said in a statement.

"According to medical records, both individuals had significant underlying health conditions that may have been impacted by cyclosporiasis and dehydration. No additional information will be provided on these two cases."

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

In its latest update on cyclosporiasis, the CDC said on July 28 that it had received no reports of deaths from states.

The CDC said that 45 states have reported 6,707 laboratory-confirmed cases since May 1 that were acquired domestically, that patients ranged in age from 1 to 98, and that the median illness onset date was July 2.

More than 11,000 other cases are pending lab testing or further investigation. The CDC is not counting cases related to international travel.

The outbreak affecting Michigan has also impacted eight other states, federal officials said in July. Iceberg lettuce from Mexico is believed to be a cause of the outbreak.

The other states are Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Oklahoma, and West Virginia.

Michigan has recorded 11,234 cases in recent months, including 193 hospitalizations.

Indiana has recorded 1,285 cases. Kansas has reported 461 cases and 20 hospitalizations. Ohio has recorded about 20,000 cases. Oklahoma has reported 298 cases and 18 hospitalizations, and West Virginia has reported 268 cases and 19 hospitalizations.

Cyclosporiasis is caused by a parasite called Cyclospora that is present in produce contaminated with feces. Past outbreaks have been caused by produce such as salad greens, raspberries, and cilantro.

The disease's main symptom is diarrhea. Other symptoms can include abdominal pain and vomiting.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 09:00

Futures Hit Record High As Oil Tumbles After Bessent Says Hormuz May "Reopen Tomorrow"

S&P futures are trading at all time high with the latest push higher triggered by comments from Scott Bessent on CNBC who echoed Trump in saying that "we may have Iran deal tomorrow to open Hormuz" (or we may not). The Nasdaq also looks set to extend Monday’s gains: As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.4% to an all time high of 7655 and Nasdaq futures rise 1.1%, as Palantir soared 16% pre-market after upping its forecasts, while Caterpillar rose 9% on an earnings beat. Semis are leading the Tech tape with Mag7 (DRAM, EWY, SMH, SOXX all higher by at least 1.6%) while Mag 7 are mixed: Amazon (AMZN) falls 2% after founder Jeff Bezos filed to sell $4.07 billion of stock (Nvidia +1.3%, Tesla +0.6%, Apple -0.2%, Meta -1.7%, Alphabet -1.5%, Microsoft -2%). Cyclicals are leading Defensives with healthcare/staples lower pre-market. Bond yields are slide 2-3 bps on the drop in oil prices, and the USD is stronger as is USDJPY following a catastrophic 10Y JGB auction while intervention is not expected to have a lasting impact and the market is likely signaling the need for BOJ to hike. In commodities, WTI tumbles on Bessent's comments that we may have a deal to reopen Hormuz tomorrow (we won't) with WTI sliding as low as $76. Base metals are higher with Precious metals spiking and Ags bid. It’s a busy day, with earnings this morning from McDonald’s and Caterpillar, and the AI trade front and center this afternoon as AMD and SpaceX report. Today’s macro data focus is on JOLTS and trade balance. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 are mixed: Amazon (AMZN) falls 2% after founder Jeff Bezos filed to sell $4.07 billion of stock (Nvidia +1.3%, Tesla +0.6%, Apple -0.2%, Meta -1.7%, Alphabet -1.5%, Microsoft -2%). 

• Ameresco (AMRC) rallies 30% after the energy company boosted its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year.
• BioNTech SE (BNTX) falls 3% after the company lowered its revenue outlook as demand for its Covid-19 vaccine shrank more than expected.
• Caterpillar (CAT) posted second-quarter earnings and revenue that beat Wall Street expectations as the company’s power-generation business continued to post strong growth off the back of data center spending. Shares are up 8%.
• DuPont de Nemours (DD) falls 3% after the chemicals company reported second-quarter results and gave a full-year forecast.
• McDonald’s (MCD) climbs about 2% after the fast-food restaurant owner and operator posted second quarter results.
• Nike (NKE) falls 3% after JPMorgan cut its recommendation on the sportswear and sneaker company to underweight, noting financial impacts from the company’s “Win Now” business strategy.
• Onsemi (ON) rises 7% after the chipmaker’s second-quarter revenue and earnings beat the average analyst estimate. Analysts note that AI data-center demand is boosting results.
• Palantir (PLTR) jumps 15% after the company boosted full-year revenue and income forecasts and described commercial demand for its data analytics tools as “otherworldly.”
• Powell Industries (POWL) drops 11% after the maker of circuit breakers and other electrical equipment posted fiscal third-quarter EPS and revenue that missed expectations.
• Rockwell Automation (ROK) falls 5% after the maker of industrial automation products posted third quarter results and provided a year forecast.
• Snap (SNAP) gains 5% after the the social media platform posted higher-than-projected quarterly sales and gave an upbeat forecast for the current period. The results signal optimism ahead of the September commercial debut of its first pair of augmented reality glasses.
• Spotify (SPOT) falls 4% after the music streaming service’s third-quarter monthly active users and operating income forecasts missed the average analyst estimate.
• Voyager Technologies (VOYG) rises 15% after the defense company raised its revenue outlook for the full year.
• Wayfair (W) falls 3% after the online furniture and home goods retailer posted second quarter results.

Corporate news is also busy, with Prologis set to buy UK REIT Segro for about £14 billion ($18.8 billion) and Williams reaching an agreement to buy Momentum Midstream through a deal valued up to $5.5 billion. HSBC’s CEO said the bank will consider boosting its bonus pool for bankers if strong performance continues. In AI news, the White House plans to host leading companies today to discuss a safety framework. Competition is heating up, especially from Chinese AI models, creating what’s been described as a death zone for anyone without frontier-pushing technology or market-breaking pricing. And AI is also shaking up the VC market, with money flowing disproportionately to top-tier investors that backed the technology early.

The rebound in US tech followed a volatile month as investors questioned whether billions of dollars of spending on artificial intelligence will translate into stronger growth and profits (they will... for Chinese AI models). The positive earnings season so far has eased some of those concerns, although the reality is masked under hundreds of billions in new debt. S&P 500 companies are beating expectations at a rate of 86%, the highest in five years, while year-on-year growth in earnings per share is running at 29%. Specifically, of the 322 S&P 500 companies to have reported so far this season, 86% have beaten analysts’ EPS forecasts, while 10% have missed. 68% of companies have positively surprised on sales, while 16% have missed.

“The combination of resilient economic growth, strong corporate earnings and AI-driven investment continues to provide a favorable backdrop for equities,” said Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial. “While investors are right to scrutinize elevated capital spending by hyperscalers and monitor developments in the Middle East, we believe these risks will be offset by the powerful earnings tailwind.”

However, as Bloomberg cautions, one potential pitfall for markets comes when SpaceX reports its first earnings as a public company later Tuesday. It also sets the stage for one of the largest share unlocks in capital markets history, with as much as $116 billion of stock becoming eligible for sale for the first time next month. SpaceX stock is about 15% lower than its closing price on June 11, when the shares started trading.

“The bigger issue for SpaceX remains the looming share overhang,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group Ltd. “There is a sense that many investors remain interested in owning the stock but are waiting for the selling pressure associated with these lock-up expiries to begin fading.”

Elon’s rocket company isn’t profitable and has a very speculative model, so the results may end up raising more questions than they answer according to Bloomberg. Volatility could also be increased by technical factors: With a low free float, 95% of SpaceX stock available to borrow is out on loan, according to S3 Research data, amounting to 34% short interest as percentage of the float.

Total assets in US-listed leveraged ETFs have retreated from highs, reducing the market impact from daily rebalancing. Still, rotation trades are creating pain points for hedge fund consensus long versus short trades. And while US equities look fairly resilient on the surface, positioning data point to limited investor conviction, particularly within small caps, according to Citigroup strategists. 

In hedge funds, Coatue Management’s fund plunged 8.3% last month, marking the latest technology-focused money manager to be whipsawed after the AI rout. Today’s Big Take looks at how a tax strategy for the rich built the world’s largest hedge fund. 

The Stoxx 600 rises 0.4% as mining and technology shares lead gains, while retail and consumer products stocks are the biggest laggards.Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

• The Stoxx 600 basic resources index is the best-performing sector in the European stocks benchmark after copper advanced to the highest in two months
• BP Plc shares are up as much as 1.7% after the British oil major reported adjusted Ebit for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate
• Johnson Matthey rallied as much as 5.2% in London after Jefferies reinstated the chemicals company buy, noting full-year earnings that beat the banks expectations and the Cormetech acquisition
• Travis Perkins shares surge as much as 19%, the most since April 2020, following first-half results that analysts say showed encouraging signs against a tough macro backdrop
• Zalando falls as much as 18%, the most since 2018, after the German online retailer narrowed its FY guidance alongside its second-quarter numbers
• Lufthansa shares drop as much as 11%, the most since March. The carrier reported a miss on second-quarter Ebit driven mostly by higher fuel costs
• Acciona SA shares fell as much as 10% to €208.20, the lowest level since March, after shareholder Tussen de Grachten BV sold about 1.65 million ordinary shares at €217.90 per share
• Fresenius Medical Care shares drop as much as 9.6%, the most in roughly three months, after the German company reported weaker-than-expected US dialysis volume in the second quarter
• Smith & Nephew shares drop as much as 7.9%, the most since November, after the medical-device maker reported weaker-than-expected revenue and cut its revenue growth outlook for the full year
• Adidas drops as much as 3.1%, underperforming the Stoxx 600’s consumer products and services subgroup, after UBS downgraded the stock to neutral from buy, citing “no clear catalysts to support a further re-rating”
• Metro Bank shares fall as much as 12%, the most in more than a year, as weaker fee income overshadowed improved profitability and prompted RBC to trim its earnings estimates and price target

Earlier, Asiam stocks edged lower for a second straight session, as declines in Taiwan’s TSMC and Japanese bank shares overshadowed an afternoon rebound of South Korean chipmakers. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.2% after earlier gains, with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, SoftBank and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial also among the biggest decliners. Benchmarks in Taiwan, Hong Kong and India retreated. South Korea and Japan staged an afternoon comeback as key chip stocks, including SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics and Kioxia, rebounded. Chip stocks moved up after a Counterpoint Research report said rising DRAM prices are boosting the outlook for memory-chip makers. “We expect pent-up demand driven by Agentic AI and AI server CPU growth to lift prices further for conventional DRAM,” according to the report. China’s ChiNext, meanwhile, rose 5.6%, led by optical transceiver makers tracking US peers, as investors grew more optimistic about the impact of Nvidia’s rollout of its co-packaged optics platform.

In FX, yen gains are being reversed with USD/JPY approaching 158 as intervention efforts are being used as an opportunity to reload on yen shorts rather than turn the tide for the currency.

In commodities, Brent oil tumbles 3% on Bessent's comments during a CNBC interview that a Hormuz deal may come as soon as tomorrow (he is now used to emphasize Trump commentary which the market no longer believes). Lower energy prices are also boosting fixed income markets with gilts leading the declines. US yields are down 2-3bps across the curve. Also of note for bonds was the extremely poor 10-year JGB auction overnight.Precious metals have pared upside with spot gold now down 0.1%. Bitcoin sheds 0.4%. 

In rates, treasuries are slightly cheaper across the curve as US day begins with futures off session lows. Price action was broadly steady overnight as oil prices stabilized, with WTI crude up around 0.4% after President Donald Trump threatened Iran with renewed air strikes. IG credit issuance is expected to remain busy this week. Treasury yields cheaper by 1bp to 2bp across the curve, following similar losses for gilts during London session with oil prices edging higher. US 10-year is around 4.695% with bunds outperforming by around 3bp in the sector. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far. Six borrowers priced almost $8 billion on Monday, with at least one borrower standing down. Issuers paid about 2bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 3.3 times covered. This week’s dealer forecasts call for a sharp pickup vs last week, with about $50 billion of new US investment-grade transactions projected

Looking at today's calendar, US economic data calendar includes June trade balance (8:30am), June factory orders with durable goods revision and June JOLTS job openings (10am). Fed speakers scheduled include Schmid at 8:15pm.

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• The Trump administration is drafting a ban on U.S. imports of new models of Chinese data center components, four people familiar with the matter told Reuters, as it seeks to protect the infrastructure that undergirds the AI boom. RTRS
• Chinese officials are growing concerned about the potential for Anthropic’s Mythos and other US AI models to be used as an offensive weapon, people familiar said. BBG
• The yen continued to unwind its intervention gains and Treasuries fell. Oil rose after Donald Trump pushing Iran to reach a deal with Oman on the Strait of Hormuz as soon as today, or face devastating air strikes. BBG
• Japan Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the US holds the country’s economic policies in high regard, sidestepping questions on whether Washington helped strengthen the yen. BBG
• Oil prices look too low as disruptions to flows through the Strait of Hormuz are expected to persist, MLIV said. Prediction markets also show little optimism that shipments will resume anytime soon. BBG
• Michigan Democrats vote today in a high-profile Senate primary between moderate Rep. Haley Stevens and progressive Abdul El-Sayed. The winner will face Donald Trump-backed Mike Rogers. Virginia, Kansas, Missouri and Washington also hold primaries. BBG
• Todd Blanche’s nomination as attorney general seems set to advance in the Senate Judiciary Committee today after he agreed to rescind an order creating a $1.8 billion “anti-weaponization” fund, winning over holdout Republican senators. BBG
• China’s AI blitz is rapidly narrowing the gap with Silicon Valley — creating what’s been described as a “death zone” for anyone without frontier-pushing technology or market-breaking pricing. BBG
• China’s below-normal crude imports may persist if Middle East supply disruptions continue. BBG
• US Senate voted 89-4 to advance stopgap funding bill which would fund the US government through to December 11th.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed after the region failed to sustain the momentum from Wall Street, where all major indices rallied, and the Dow notched a record close amid lower oil prices and yields, following Trump's strike cancellation and touted US-Iran talks, while he even suggested they are discussing opening the Strait of Hormuz as soon as today. ASX 200 outperformed with the advances led by strength in tech and the top-weighted financial industry. Nikkei 225 wiped out early gains and dipped into negative territory with a lack of bullish catalysts overnight. KOSPI swung between gains and losses amid the choppy performances in its tech giants. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed amid very few fresh catalysts and with China said to be growing anxious that Anthropic’s Mythos could be wielded against its economy, while better-than-expected HSBC earnings failed to inspire its shares in Hong Kong.x

Top Asian News

• Japan's Economy Minister Kiuchi said the pass-through of rising costs on goods prices has been limited so far and June overall CPI shows price rises remain moderate Y/Y. The minister added that the Government shares with BoJ the forecast that consumer inflation will accelerate in the latter half of this year and slow thereafter. Hopes the BoJ conducts monetary policy appropriately to stably and sustainably achieve its 2% inflation target and that the BoJ closely communicates with the government in guiding policy.

European bourses continue to climb, with the FTSE MIB the outperformer. Not much in terms of a broader driver; plenty of corporate earnings were on the docket this morning, while another day of no strikes between the US and Iran brightens hopes of a sustained end to the conflict. Sectors are mixed. Basic Resources top the sector pile, followed by Tech and Industrial Goods & Services. Retail is the sector laggard, with Travel & Leisure and Consumer Products & Services rounding out the underperformers. Weighing on Retail is the earnings from Zalando (-15.5%), in which Q2 revenue missed estimates and narrowed its FY26 adj. EBIT guidance. 

Top European News

• Bayer (+3.4%), Q2 revenue and Adj. EBITDA beat estimates and confirms FY26 view; 
• Continental (-1.5%), FY26 revenue guidance missed estimates and highlighted that raw material costs are set to substantially increase; 
• Lufthansa (-9.5%), cuts FY26 adj. EBIT guidance and notes heightened levels of forecasting uncertainty; 
• HSBC (-1.0%), Q2 PBT and Net beat estimates and announces a USD 1bln share buyback programme; 
• BP (+1.0%), Q2 revenue beat and announces its intention to sell Archaea.

FX

• DXY sees relatively quiet trade thus far, trading on either side of the 100 mark in a narrow 99.93-100.06 range at the time of writing, deriving little support from the firmer oil prices, albeit WTI sees shallower gains than Brent (see Commodities update). Analysts at ING meanwhile posit “Unless ADP tomorrow and, more importantly, payrolls on Friday point to a clearly weakening jobs market … we do not expect the dollar to fall much further in the near term. Uncertainty over the next stage of US-Iran negotiations may also help limit downside pressure on oil prices.” DXY has topped yesterday’s 100.02 high but remains well within Friday’s 100.46 high and above the 100 DMA (99.73).
• EUR and GBP are also uneventful amid a lack of macro and domestic drivers this morning. EUR/USD found support at 1.1500 on Monday after slipping from a 1.1559 high, shy of its 100 DMA, which today resides at 1.1563 (vs 1.1568 yesterday). GBP/USD is tucked in a 1.3419-1.3439 range, well within yesterday’s 1,3418-1.3506 band but still above a small cluster of DMAs, with the 100 DMA at 1.3399 and 200 DMA at 1.3396, providing some reinforcement around the 1.3400 round figure.
• JPY is once again interesting, with USD/JPY continuing its mild recovery from post-intervention lows, but remains beneath the 158.00 level, with very few fresh catalysts and a lack of tier-1 data overnight and in the European morning. USD/JPY resides in a current 157.14-157.80 range at the time of writing, just shy of yesterday’s 157.93 high and the 200 DMA at 157.95.
• Antipodeans are mixed, with AUD gaining and standing out across G10 peers, with strength seen overnight following stronger-than-expected Household Spending data, whilst gains in gold and copper could also be lending support. AUD/USD and NZD/USD remain within yesterday’s ranges, whilst AUD/NZD has gained and resides closer to the top end of a 1.1918-1..1969 range, above yesterday’s 1.1961 high.
• BoJ data showed an expected shortfall of JPY 3.38tln in money market conditions (exp. shortfall between JPY 2.32-2.6tln). Data suggest that Japan may not have intervened in the FX market on Monday.

Fixed Income

• A mostly contained European morning for fixed income, after pressure seen in APAC trade in JGBs and to extent other peers after a particularly poor 10yr Japanese auction.
• As mentioned, the main point thus far was the dismal Japanese 10yr auction, featuring a lower b/c but pertinently a sizable price tail. Results sparked pressure in JGBs of near 70 ticks, to a 126.36 low. Since, the benchmark has recovered for the most part, but remains lower by just over 10 ticks and as such underperforms.
• For reference, no move to a BoJ research paper on the JGB market, where the headline points echoed commentary from Ueda in last week’s press conference.
• Bunds firmer by a handful of ticks, saw some modest pressure overnight alongside the JGB move (as did USTs), but only fleeting with the fundamentals and dynamics a very different story. The day ahead for Europe is light, and thus the benchmark will likely conform to the lead from USTs around US events, and geopolitical updates more generally. At the midpoint of a relatively narrow 124.68-92 band.
• USTs look to a few data points, alongside commentary from Fed’s Paulson. But, action is more likely to be dictated by any geopolitical developments, after President Trump’s relatively constructive commentary on the conversations with the US; however, CBS reported that only the ongoing mediator-led talks are planned. As with Bunds, flat in a c. five tick range, holding just above the 108-10+ low.
• Gilts conform, opened with gains of a few ticks, and has since slipped to a 87.04 base, lower by around 25 ticks. Pressure is a function of the modest strength seen in energy (despite it coming off highs in the early morning). No reaction was seen following the 2032 tap.
• The UK sells GBP 4.25bln 4.625% 2032 Gilt: b/c 3.34x, average yield 4.613%, tail 0.2bps.
• Japan sells JPY 1.98tln 10yr JGBs, b/c 2.56x (prev. 3.13x), average yield 2.840% (prev. 2.729%), Tail in price 0.46 vs prev. 0.20.

Commodities

• In geopolitics, President Trump said talks with Iran were ongoing and suggested the Strait of Hormuz could reopen by Tuesday, although US officials clarified that no new negotiations were planned beyond existing mediator-led discussions. Tensions remain high, with reports of Iranian drone attacks on a US base in Kuwait and vessels near the Strait, including a cargo ship struck off Oman. Iran warned that continued efforts to break the blockade could put US forces and vessels at serious risk, while Iranian leaders reportedly believe they can withstand US pressure and raise costs through regional proxies and threats to shipping. Meanwhile, Iran’s foreign minister is expected to visit Islamabad.
• WTI Sep'26 and Brent Oct'26 are firmer amid geopolitics but to varying magnitudes, with the former currently +2.2% intraday and the latter +3%. The difference in gains could potentially be a function of President Trump yesterday criticising major oil companies, saying they were making excessive profits and urging them to lower retail fuel prices. The mechanism being: if US refiners are forced to lower fuel prices while crude costs remain elevated, refining margins shrink, prompting them to reduce crude processing to balance books and, in turn, lowering demand for WTI crude. Nonetheless, WTI trades around the top of a USD 79.62-82.28/bbl range vs yesterday’s USD 78.43-81.30/bbl range. Brent resides within a USD 83.80-86.33/bbl range vs Monday’s 81.55-84.66/bbl range. Dutch TTF is back above EUR 59/MWh, having traded under EUR 58/MWh
• Metals are firmer across the board as DXY remains contained despite the gains across crude, with precious and base metals benefiting from the current stability in oil prices under July highs as President Trump continues to tout diplomacy with Iran, and with no further escalations seen thus far this European morning. Spot gold remains under yesterday’s USD 4,019-4,079/oz range within a current USD 4,043-4,073/oz range. Base metals also benefit across the board, with 3M LME copper back above USD 14k/t in the current 13,871.88- 14,049.30/t range at the time of writing.
• Saudi Aramco - Q2 adj. net income +33% Y/Y to USD 33.4bln (exp. 31.1bln). Benchmark Brent crude averaged approximately USD 97/bbl during the quarter as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, driven by the US-Iran conflict, caused the largest oil supply disruption on record, with Aramco redirecting the bulk of its exports via the East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea. Elevated refined-product prices provided an additional margin tailwind, sustaining returns even as Brent temporarily retreated below USD 75/bbl following an interim ceasefire agreement. It flagged mounting risk to Red Sea export volumes as Houthi militants threaten attacks on tankers using that route.
• Saudi Aramco CEO said global oil inventories could take about 18 months to recover following supply disruptions.
• Oman crude for October delivery priced at USD 83.51/bbl, according to state news.
• Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to trade within an USD 80–90/bbl range until a new US-Iran agreement is confirmed or attacks escalate significantly.

Trade/Tariffs

• Japan and Mexico agreed to strengthen energy cooperation, with Japan and Mexico aiming to hold first high-level economic dialogue this fiscal year, according to Kyodo

Central Banks

• BoK Minutes stated that one member said timing and pace of any further rate hikes should be determined with primary emphasis on inflation.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Iranian President said Tehran would defend its borders but does not seek to expand the war, according to state media.
• Iranian Supreme Leader adviser Rezaei said if the blockade continues, US vessels and forces will face serious risks and casualties.
• Arab media reported explosions and fires occurred at US bases in Kuwait, according to Fars News Agency. This was later confirmed by i24, in which the IRGC attacked a US base in Kuwait using 3 drones, according to a source.
• UKMTO received a report of an incident 20 nautical miles northeast of Oman's Al Khasab, in which a cargo vessel broadcasted that they had been hit by an unknown projectile. More recently, a dry bulk vessel was reportedly hit by a projectile near the Strait of Hormuz, according to a maritime security source.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Ukraine, on August 4th, struck a major Russian oil refinery 800km from the border, attacking the Syzran oil refinery (170k BPD). A major fire broke out on the premises, RBC Ukraine reported.

Geopolitics: Other

• North Korea slammed US-led naval exercise and vowed to respond with deterrence of a new level, according to Yonhap.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: Jun Trade Balance, est. -73b, prior -77.6b
• 10:00 am: Jun Factory Orders, est. 0.2%, prior -1.3%
• 10:00 am: Jun JOLTS Job Openings, est. 7453.5k, prior 7594k
• 10:00 am: Jun F Durable Goods Orders, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
• 10:00 am: Jun F Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.6%, prior 0.6%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

After several weeks of military exchanges and fears of a renewed energy shock, markets have started August welcoming the late weekend comments from President Trump that fresh talks with Iran would begin after he cancelled plans for what he described as a major attack. That optimism was reinforced by suggestions from Iranian officials that negotiations between Iran and Oman over “temporary” shipping arrangements through the Strait of Hormuz are progressing, offering a potential path towards improved oil flows. Even Trump’s post as Europe went home that “Iranian Leadership is unbelievably duplicitous”, which came following Iranian comments that they were not currently negotiating with the US, didn’t spoil things. Trump also said that his latest offer of talks was a “last chance” for Iran but that didn’t derail improved market optimism on Hormuz shipping amid the renewed focus on diplomacy.  

So for one day at least markets enjoyed something they haven't had much of this summer: falling oil prices, lower inflation expectations, stronger growth data, declining bond yields, and rising equities all at the same time. A nice way to start August even if you feel it could go either way very quickly.

The biggest move was in energy yesterday. Brent crude fell -4.73% to $83.77/bbl (adjusting for the benchmark month change), whilst WTI dropped -5.11% to $80.34/bbl. This morning, they are edging back +1.42% and +1.12% higher respectively. European natural gas futures also declined -1.80% yesterday. 

The reaction in inflation markets was also strong. The US 1yr inflation swap fell -5.5bps to 1.86%, its lowest since September 2024, whilst the Eurozone 1yr inflation swap declined -3.3bps to 2.36%. So markets are dismantling a chunk of the near-term inflation premium that had built up through July as the conflict intensified. Real yields moved lower too, with the US 30yr falling -3.6bps to 3.00%. 
Government bonds were immediate beneficiaries. The 10yr Treasury yield fell -5.8bps to 4.68%, whilst 10yr bund yields (-5.5bps) declined to 3.15%. Gilts outperformed both, with the UK 10yr yield down -9.6bps to 4.95%, making them one of the strongest-performing major developed market assets on the day and their best day since May 20. 10yr BTP yields (-8.6bps) weren’t far behind, also registering their largest daily decline since late May. 

However, unlike several of the recent oil-driven rallies, yesterday's move wasn't occurring against a backdrop of weakening growth. In fact the opposite was true. The US ISM manufacturing survey rose to 55.6 in July, its highest reading since May 2022 and comfortably above the 53.9 expectation. The employment component (52.8 vs 50.0 expected) moved into expansion territory for the first time since September 2023, whilst new orders was strong (56.7 and in-line). Not even prices paid remaining at an elevated 71.1 (roughly in line with expectations, but easing back from 73.0) dampened the mood. The associated commentary suggested the booming activity was linked to semiconductors, AI, defence, and high-performance computing. In other data, the Fed’s latest quarterly Senior Loan Officer Survey painted a picture of buoyant lending to corporates, even if there were some pockets of softness on the household side. 

That combination of lower oil and stronger growth proved a very supportive backdrop for equities. The S&P 500 rose +1.48% to close just -0.12% below its record high from June 2. The Nasdaq Composite gained +2.13% and the Dow added +1.32%. The standout performer was the Magnificent Seven, which rallied +3.56%, posting its largest daily gain since March 31, with all bar Apple (-1.78%) up around +3% or more. Moreover, coupled with the tech rebound late last week, the Mag-7 recorded its best 3-day run (+8.98%) since May 2025, when the US and China agreed on their trade truce. Interestingly that enthusiasm didn't extend as much into the semiconductor space, with the Philly Semi Index (+1.05%) underperforming the broader market after losing -20.6% in July. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose +0.45%, the DAX gained +1.45% and the CAC 40 advanced +1.22%. 

This morning, focus continues to be on the yen story, which stabilised after its early Monday spike that we wrote about yesterday. The yen ended yesterday’s session up +0.19% to 157.10 against the USD, having traded below 155.50 early on Monday. And this morning it is -0.27% lower trading at 157.63 against the dollar, still far from the 163 level before the intervention last Thursday.

Asian equity markets are mostly trading lower overnight with the KOSPI (-0.96%) again the weakest performer, despite recovering some of its early losses, while the Nikkei (-0.33%) and Hang Seng (-0.49%) are also on the softer side. In contrast, mainland Chinese equities are outperforming their regional counterparts, supported by a rebound in technology stocks following yesterday’s selloff. At the time of writing, both the CSI 300 (+0.94%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.18%) are trading higher. Meanwhile, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (+1.29%) is posting strong gains, driven by a rally in lithium miners and strength in commodity-linked shares, which is more than offsetting weakness in other sectors. S&P 500 (+0.22%) and Nasdaq (+0.38%) futures are up along with the Stoxx (+0.34%) equivalent. 

Early morning data showed that South Korea's consumer inflation eased to a three-month low, with prices rising 2.8% year-over-year in July, down from 3.2% in June and 3.0% expected. Core was a tenth higher than expected at 2.6% YoY. 

Away from the macro picture, one of the more eye-catching corporate stories came from healthcare after reports that AstraZeneca (-8.96% yesterday) has explored a potential acquisition of Bristol-Myers Squibb (+0.24%), which would rank as the largest pharmaceutical deal ever completed. Defence stocks also remained in focus after Northrop Grumman secured agreements worth up to $3bn related to missile interceptor production, a reminder that even if diplomacy is making a comeback, the geopolitical backdrop remains anything but normal. 

To the day ahead now, the main US data will be the JOLTS report, followed by June trade balance and factory orders. We’ll also get France’s June budget balance YTD, Italy June retail sales. Earnings include SpaceX, AMD, HSBC, Booking, Pfizer.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 08:30

Caterpillar Erupts As Quarterly Sales Top $20 Billion For First Time Amid AI Data Center Boom

Caterpillar shares jumped in pre-market trading after reporting a second-quarter beat, driven by strong growth in its heavy machinery, power and energy business amid the data center buildout, reshoring, and other activities reindustrializing the nation under the Trump administration.

Revenue soared 24% from one year ago to $20.54 billion, exceeding the $19.01 billion Bloomberg consensus estimate. Machinery, power and energy revenue climbed 25% to $19.58 billion, while operating income surged 51% to $4.21 billion, well above the $3.5 billion estimate.

Financial Products operating income rose 24% to $263 million, beating Wall Street expectations, though the segment's $962 million in revenue missed forecasts. Research and development spending increased 12% to $616 million.

Here's a snapshot of Caterpillar's second-quarter results, courtesy of Bloomberg:

Revenue $20.54 billion, +24% y/y, estimate $19.01 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)

• Financial segment revenue $962 million, +7.5% y/y, estimate $982.8 million
• Machinery, Power & Energy revenue $19.58 billion, +25% y/y, estimate $18.13 billion
• Machinery, Power & Energy operating income $4.21 billion, +51% y/y, estimate $3.5 billion
• Financial Products operating income $263 million, +24% y/y, estimate $248.1 million

R&D expenses $616 million, +12% y/y, estimate $602.5 million

"This is the first time in company history that we have generated over $20 billion in sales and revenues in a single quarter," Caterpillar CEO Joe Creed wrote in a statement.

Creed continued, "This milestone underscores both the essential work our customers do every day and the dedication of Caterpillar employees worldwide to solving our customers' toughest challenges. Strong order rates and a growing backlog reflect broadening momentum across all three of our primary segments."

Caterpillar shares surged nearly 8% in premarket trading, suggesting the company cleared the high bar set by investors. This morning's surge follows a 23% decline last month, the stock's worst performance since 2009, as concerns about data-center spending fueled a broader selloff across power-equipment companies.

Last week, Michael Burry announced we shorted Caterpillar for the first time ...

*MICHAEL BURRY SAYS HE SHORTED CATERPILLAR FOR THE FIRST TIME

*BURRY SAYS HE SHORTED TESLA, NVIDIA AND APPLIED MATERIALS

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 30, 2026

Read the note where Morgan Stanley expects $1 trillion hyperscaler capex this year.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 07:45

Saudi Aramco Profit Soars As CEO Warns Hormuz Closure Removes 100 Million Barrels A Week

Saudi Aramco, the world's largest oil producer by volume, reported a 33% jump in second-quarter profits on Tuesday as the war-driven surge in Brent crude, which averaged $97 a barrel, boosted earnings. The company maintained export flows by redirecting crude around the disrupted Strait of Hormuz through its East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea.

Adjusted net income for the quarter surged to $33.4 billion from $25.2 billion a year earlier, beating the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of $31.1 billion. Aramco sold oil at an average of $108.10 a barrel, up from $66.70, while Brent averaged nearly $97 during the quarter.

Aramco heavily relied on its East-West Pipeline, storage facilities, and Red Sea energy terminals to maintain export flows as the Hormuz chokepoint came to a standstill for the quarter. Nevertheless, liquids production plunged 28% to 7.57 million barrels a day, while natural gas output tumbled 16%.

The East-West Pipeline shows how critical an alternative route to transport energy products has become for U.S.-allied countries in the Gulf, as a once-in-a-generation infrastructure buildout, whether a new pipeline or expanded capacity of legacy ones to new ports, is set to be underway. This, in itself, will erode Tehran's leverage on the Hormuz in the years ahead.

Aramco maintained its $21.9 billion base dividend despite generating just $12.3 billion in free cash flow. Gearing, a measure of the company's indebtedness, increased to 6.2% from 4.8% at the end of March, highlighting the financial strain of sustaining a payout critical to Saudi government finances.

Separately, Aramco's President and CEO, Amin H. Nasser, told Al Arabiya Business that the closure of the Hormuz chokepoint sparked the "largest oil shock in history," resulting in the global market losing more than 2.6 billion barrels of supply since the start of the Gulf crisis in late February.

Aramco’s President and CEO Amin H. Nasser tells Al Arabiya Business that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused the “largest oil supply shock in history,” resulting in the global market losing more than 2.6 billion barrels of supply since the start of the crisis. pic.twitter.com/DbzlcglOYT

— Al Arabiya English (@AlArabiya_Eng) August 4, 2026

Nasser said the closure of the Hormuz removes about 100 million barrels of oil from the market every week and has placed the global refining system under severe strain.

From the earnings call: 

Goldman Sachs' top commodities experts, Samantha Dart and Daan Struyven, have both warned about the refinery shock and pointed out that "diesel is at the epicenter of the supply squeeze."

Read the report:

• "Diesel Is At Epicenter Of Supply Squeeze,": Goldman
• "Really Only One Thing Worries Us A Lot": Here's What Keeps Goldman's Commodities Guru Up At Night

Even after the chokepoint reopens, Nasser warned that it could take up to 18 months to replenish global inventories.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 07:20

Global Bond Market On Edge As Japanese Yields Soar After "Horrible" 10Y JGB Auction

While much of the market focus has fallen on the US long-end, which saw substantial pressure in the past week, sending 30Y yields to 5.27%, the highest level since 2007, it was Japan again which stole the show overnight. But first, recall that the primary tradeoff for the BOJ preventing it from raising rates and comfortably pushing up the yen without needing to spending tens of billions in massive interventions (whether individual or joint with the US), is that raising rates risks collapsing the world's biggest house of cards, which is the Japanese bond market, the world's, second biggest of which half is now owned by the Bank of Japan. 

Well, early on Tuesday morning Japan had its first major coupon auction since the latest intervention and it went... catastrophically. 

The auction, which saw a huge tail, the second highest since the start of the century...

... and dismal demand in the form of a collapsing 2.56 bid to cover, far below the 3.3 average, the lowest since May 2025...

... and the third lowest going back all the way to 2015.

... sent the yield on 10Y paper as spiking as much as 5bps higher to 2.87% with JGB futures tumbling as much as 34 ticks to 126.37. 

The lowest price was also a long way off from pre-sale estimates. In a nutshell, as Bloomberg's Mark Cranfield put it, it was a "horrible auction" and ominously adds that "this is such a bad bond sale it could spill over negatively to Treasuries and other G-10 bonds." The Bloomberg strategist also notges that "investors appear to be giving the BOJ pay back for not be clearer in their intentions to get ahead of inflationary forces and raise interest rates more quickly."

The auction was so bad, even domestic Japanese investors seem to have been surprised at the poor metrics.  As a result, 10-year yields fast approached the peak seen in July around 2.90%, with Cranfield warning that "should Japanese bonds go beyond that threshold seen last month, it is likely to send a deeply negative read across to G-10 peers, which will reverberate through global fixed-income trading."

Elsewhere, Bloomberg strategist Ven Ram points out the obvious noting that "the lukewarm reception to Japan’s latest bond auction shows that the latest round of currency intervention has failed to turn around sentiment toward the nation’s assets.... While the Japan-US joint currency intervention shored up the yen, the follow-through needs to come not from the US Treasury or Japan’s finance ministry, but rather from the Bank of Japan."

The bottom line: unless the BOJ follows through on the intervention either by raising rates outside its normal policy review cycle or by signaling an urgent intent to follow through with successive hikes, bonds will continue to falter. That, in turn, bodes poorly for the yen’s outlook — regardless of what the authorities do in the short term.

Sure enough, after dropping as low as 155.20 yesterday, the USDJPY is now almost 300 pips higher and has already erased a third of the full intervention impact which cost Japan just shy of $100 billion.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 07:10

"Creepy" Smart Glasses Are Creating A Privacy Problem

Smart glasses are quickly becoming the next major consumer tech battleground, with Meta leading the market and rivals including Google, Samsung, and Apple preparing their own AI-powered eyewear. But as the devices become more capable, they're also fueling a growing debate over whether convenience is coming at the expense of privacy, according to a new report from Wired. 

Unlike smartphones, which require users to visibly point a camera, smart glasses can quietly capture photos, video, and audio from the wearer's point of view. Critics argue that makes them far easier to misuse. Meta has attempted to address concerns with recording lights and anti-tamper protections, but questions remain over how effective those safeguards really are. The company also briefly experimented with facial-recognition capabilities before abandoning the feature after it drew scrutiny.

Even so, consumers continue to buy them. Fans point to hands-free photography, AI assistants, live translation, accessibility features, and other practical uses that make the glasses more than just another gadget. Some smaller manufacturers are trying to distinguish themselves with camera-free designs or physical lens covers aimed at privacy-conscious buyers.

Wired writes that privacy groups say the technology may ultimately require regulation rather than voluntary safeguards, calling for mandatory recording indicators that users cannot disable. Their argument is that as AI wearables become commonplace, legal protections need to evolve just as quickly.

Then again, if people are already posting every meal, workout, vacation, and awkward first date online, maybe the only thing smart glasses are really doing is saving everyone the trouble of pulling a phone out of their pocket.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 06:55

Trump Says Iran Faces 'Decapitation' If It Doesn't Sign A 'Good' Deal Summary

• Trump says Iran faces 'decapitation' if it doesn't agree to a deal.
• Trump says Gulf allies halted planned US strikes in favor of diplomacy.
• Iran says Hormuz talks with Oman are progressing, but US actions remain the obstacle.
• Oil prices still falling on optimism over Hormuz negotiations & uptick in transit.
• Tehran is betting it can outlast Trump by raising the costs of confrontation.

//--> //--> //--> Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Yes 21% · No 80%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Trump Speaks to Reporters, Addresses Iran (non)Talks

President Trump has told reporters in the Oval Office that the Iran conflict is "working out very well" and that this is Tehran's "last chance to sign a good document".

"I ⁠think we're going to maybe get ​something, but I want to give ​them every last chance before decapitation," he said, reiterating a threat to launch a major ​attack on Iran.

On Hormuz, he said:

“It has to be [free], I am not going to let them charge. If anybody is going to charge, we will charge, we are the ones … with a total control,” he said. “We have a thing called a blockade … No, no, there is not going to be charging. We are not talking about charging at all. There won’t be charging.”

*TRUMP: WANT TO GIVE IRAN LAST CHANCE BEFORE 'DECAPITATION'

... at 4:01pm on Friday

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 3, 2026

On engaging Iran in talks even while the Iranians themselves insist they will not participate in any new talks:

When we talk we say 'we're talking', if we're not talking, when you ask me, 'no we're not talking', I'll say it. But we are talking right now, we're talking, and we're talking at the request of Iran, backed by Saudi Arabia, backed by UAE, and backed by Qatar in particular, but others also, many countries called, many-the leaders of many, I'm friendly with a lot of them--This is a last chance, this is not something-if it doesn't happen, this is a last chance for them to sign a... good document.

BREAKING: Trump on Iran:

This is their last chance to sign a good document. pic.twitter.com/sLD3HkQEV3

— Clash Report (@clashreport) August 3, 2026

Curiously, Trump is again insisting that when Iran says talks are off, they are lying...

Reporter: Talks with Iran are now off.

Trump: They are going on right now. It's an amazing thing.

They are not denying it this time.

But for some reason, when they are talking, they don't like to say that they are talking. pic.twitter.com/m1slQoACy0

— Clash Report (@clashreport) August 3, 2026 Trump: Looking for Solution 'Caused' by Iran

President Trump on Monday issued a new Truth Social, perhaps trying to explain his latest weekend TACO move, accusing Iran's leadership of being "unbelievably duplicitous," claiming Tehran privately sought and sheduled talks while publicly insisting it is only dealing with Oman. He asserted that the Strait of Hormuz is already "completely controlled by the United States Navy" through what he called the "United States Wall of Steel," adding that "nothing gets through to Iran" unless Washington allows it. Trump also insisted discussions toward a resolution are underway despite Iranian denials, while reiterating his bottom line: "IRAN WILL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!"

U.S. officials say that no novel negotiations are scheduled with Iran despite Trump's statements, maintaining that ongoing talks are limited to indirect discussions via mediators involving envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. - CBS

Trump is increasingly letting his frustration and 'exasperation' go public. This seems to only confirm that indeed there are no talks taking place at this point. The US president continues to insist that the whole crisis was "caused" by the Iranians "for decades" but that it is the US now looking for a "solution" - but Iran won't play ball, after apparently 'begging' for talks...

We're only 5 months in... one wonders what the narrative will be with the US still bogged down in Hormuz by November:

To get a sense of how long the MAGA base will keep falling for Trump’s bullshit-through-military-defeat, during Dubya’s presidency it took until mid-2006, or 3 years after it was obvious what a disaster his Iraq war was, for his GOP base to begin to peel.
We’re only 5 months in. https://t.co/Mozz60zX1y

— Mark Ames (@MarkAmesExiled) August 3, 2026 Trump Claimed Talks Set For Monday Afternoon, Tehran Balks

President Trump now says new talks with Iran will begin Monday afternoon after he called off a planned "massive attack" - following high level Saudi intervention, and also likely White House advisors and Pentagon leadership failing to agree on a strategic vision.

"The Saudis expressed concern and asked for clarity about the plan of action," one US official told Axios over the weekend, with another saying that crown prince Mohammed bin Salman urged Trump to de-escalate and refrain from launching the strikes. Trump aknowledged all of this to reporters aboard Air Force One while returning from Bedminster, New Jersey, to Joint Base Andrews. He claimed the canceled attack would have been "the biggest attack since World War II" and could have been "disastrous" for Iran.

"I was asked to by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, by Qatar, and by Iran to hold off strikes," Trump said. "It would have been a massive attack." He added: "When the allies asked to call it off, you gotta say, Well, let's see."

.@POTUS “We had an attack that would have been the biggest attack since WORLD WAR II.

It would have been DISASTROUS FOR THEM.” pic.twitter.com/HnVYxw0EsV

— DOW Rapid Response (@DOWResponse) August 2, 2026

"I asked the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, 'What would you rather have us do?'" Trump said. "He said, 'We would prefer a deal rather than an attack.'" And more: "Allies think there is a deal," Trump explained. "There is a deal on Hormuz, and it will be a deal on the nuclear."

Iran says No Negotiations Happening

Iranian officials said there are currently no negotiations with the United States and that Tehran is not planning to send or host any delegations "these days."

However, Iran has confirmed that it is deep into negotiations over managing the Strait of Hormuz with Oman, and that it desires to get more ships moving through the vital transit waterway. According to Bloomberg on Monday:

Iran suggested negotiations to get more ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz are making progress, after President Donald Trump called off what he said was a major attack on the Islamic Republic.

Oil fell on Monday, with Brent crude down about 4.5% to just over $83 a barrel, after Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said discussions between Tehran and Oman over management of the strait are in the final stages.

While Tehran officials acknowledged that negotiations with Oman are ongoing and that progress has been made toward securing a temporary passage through the Strait of Hormuz, they stressed that reaching an agreement with Oman alone would not be enough to reopen the waterway, warning that the situation will remain unchanged as long as US "aggression" continues.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei conveyed also that China is concerned about "the escalation of conflict and insecurity in the region" and is working to prevent the situation from worsening. He described that there is no new mediator involved in contacts with Washington, with Pakistan and Qatar continuing to carry out that role.

On the broader conflict, Baghaei argued that the US-Israeli war on Iran is not merely a war against one country, but "a war against the entire region." He laid out that Iran once again rejected attempts to tie developments in Yemen to the conflict with Iran, calling such claims "a form of evasion of responsibility."

"We currently do not have negotiations with America," and Iran had no plans to host foreign delegations or send negotiators abroad in the coming days, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei told reporters.

🔴 Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei says there are no talks with the US currently, adding that there are talks with Oman over Strait of Hormuz

🔴 Baghaei says working with Oman on a temporary safe route through Strait of Hormuz

🔴 Baghaei says reaching an… pic.twitter.com/9nd1T4lgNT

— Al Arabiya English (@AlArabiya_Eng) August 3, 2026 Iranians 'Won't Bend' - Reuters Analyst Points Out

Meanwhile, the on-again, off-again style of escalation and de-escalation pattern we are witnessing is likely only helping Tehran's side in terms of leverage, as the conflict grinds on and potentially becomes more politically costly for the White House. 

Referring to the Iranians, Reuters writes in new analysis, "They see an opportunity in what they regard as President Donald Trump's reluctance to become deeply entangled ​in another Middle East conflict ahead of November's midterm elections."

"The Iranians...believe that by widening the war and increasing the pressure, he will eventually give in," a Gulf source is cited in the report as saying. "Trump thinks he can hit the Iranians hard and bring them to the negotiating table, but they won't bend." That much should be obvious by now, as Trump Tacos once again.

According to more from Reuters: "Iran is betting it can outlast Washington by turning the Middle East's trade routes, shipping lanes and energy infrastructure into pressure points that steadily raise the cost of confrontation, according to Gulf officials and analysts."

Who can outlast? This is currently month #6 of the war...

via ABC7

"Rather than seeking a ​decisive military victory, Tehran is pursuing a strategy of calibrated escalation aimed at widening the conflict without triggering full-scale war," the report continues. But that much should have been obvious and anticipated from week one of the war, and clearly the US side underestimated things.

More Latest Developments

via Newsquawk

• US President Trump said the US is locked and loaded and ready to go against Iran, but they “have just been asked by Iran, and other Middle Eastern Countries, to hold off any attack in that the perimeters of a deal have been agreed to. This would include the Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT, and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat. Based on this request, I have agreed, for the future benefit of the WORLD and, likewise, the survival of a successful and prosperous Iran, to cancel the attack, subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL.”
• In further comments, US President Trump said the Iran attack would have been a massive one if not paused, adding there's a deal on Hormuz and there will be a deal on denuclearisation. He added that he was asked very strongly by Iran to hold off the attack. On negotiations, he said they will begin tomorrow afternoon.
• US CENTCOM was reported on Friday to have prepared a large-scale operation in the form of a decisive two-week bombing campaign should President Trump choose escalation to break the deadlock in the Middle East, according to The Hill reports, citing sources.
• US Central Command intelligence official wrote in an email that they are seeking new and unconventional ways to increase pressure on and punish Iran, according to an internal message circulated among military analysts, according to CNN
• Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson said negotiations with Oman are progressing, with the two sides holding constructive talks on a new framework and exchanging maps over the past seven to eight days for review, IRNA reported.
• Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei said Iran is working with Oman to establish a temporary security corridor in the Strait of Hormuz, adding that Tehran is not currently in dialogue with the US and is holding talks with Oman on the waterway. Baghaei added that issues with the US should be addressed at a later stage and that there are no plans to receive a US delegation or send an Iranian delegation in the coming days.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi told a cabinet meeting on Sunday that the negotiations with Oman to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz “were in the final stages”, according to FT. It was separately reported that Araghchi held phone calls with Saudi, Pakistan and Iraqi counterparts and exchanged views on the latest developments in the region, while he warned on Saturday against any adventurous action by the US and stressed Iran's readiness to respond decisively to any aggression.
• Iranian lawmaker Qashqawi said there are no discussions with the US or talks on the nuclear issue, adding that US sanctions amount to war; lasting peace can only be pursued once the military, economic and media conflict ends, SNN reported.
• Iran’s Mehr News Agency rejected US President Trump’s claim that he halted attacks at the request of Iran and Middle East countries, while it called it “a new lie” and emphasised that Iran’s forces are on full alert.
• UKMTO said on Saturday it received a report of an incident 21 nautical miles northeast of Oman's Khasab, where the master of the tanker saw a large splash and explosion in close proximity to the vessel, although no damage to the vessel was reported.
• Israel told the White House it has significant security concerns over a proposed Hamas disarmament agreement, saying intelligence suggests Hamas intends to rebuild its military capabilities rather than genuinely disarm. Israel added that it will not withdraw from most of Gaza until Hamas has fully completed the disarmament process.
• Palestinian civil defence said Israeli drone and airstrikes hit multiple locations across the Gaza Strip, killing at least 18 people, including two women and four children, with residential apartments, tents sheltering displaced people and civilian areas among the reported targets.
• Kpler shipping data showed 18 vessels passed through the Bab al-Mandeb on Sunday, compared to the 27 vessels on Saturday.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 06:35

Senator Urges National Security Review Of Chinese Solar Company's Planned Use Of Facility Near US Military Base In Ohio

Authored by Frank Fang via The Epoch Times,

Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) has asked Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to carry out a national security review of a Chinese solar company's potential use of a facility located near a major U.S. military base in Dayton, Ohio.

Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) speaks during a hearing on oversight of the Department of Homeland Security before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee in the Dirksen Senate Office Building in Washington on Feb. 12, 2026. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Moreno, who serves on the Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, sent a July 31 letter to Bessent, expressing his concerns about a pending real estate transaction involving SolarSpace Technology, a China-based manufacturer of photovoltaic cells and modules.

"It is my understanding that SolarSpace intends to lease or purchase a facility located at 2555 Woodman Drive, Kettering, Ohio, which is approximately 13 miles from Wright-Patterson Air Force Base," Moreno wrote.

"The Chinese Communist Party is never allowed to purchase or lease land near our military installations."

Wright-Patterson Air Force Base is home to the Air Force Materiel Command, the Air Force Research Laboratory, and the National Air and Space Intelligence Center, employing more than 38,000 military personnel, civilians, and contractors.

The Air Force Research Laboratory has conducted hypersonic science and technology research since the early 1960s, a decades-long effort that a senior laboratory scientist said in 2021 was supported by roughly $1.7 billion in U.S. investment over the previous 25 years.

In 2014, a former civilian employee of the Air Force Research Laboratory was sentenced to 37 months in federal prison in Los Angeles for selling the laboratory's sensitive information to an individual he believed was a Chinese intelligence agent.

According to Moreno, the base "is not only one of the Department of War's most strategically significant installations, but also a cornerstone of U.S. air and space superiority, serving as a central hub for aerospace research, engineering, and intelligence."

Moreno contended that SolarSpace Technology poses a national security risk because "the Chinese Communist Party has leveraged American commercial entities to advance its military and intelligence objectives."

SolarSpace Technology is headquartered in Xuzhou, a city in northwestern China's Jiangsu Province. According to the company's website, it has an overseas office in Wilmington, Delaware.

A 2023 report submitted to China's Shenzhen Stock Exchange showed that the company had received millions in Chinese government subsidies from 2020 to the first half of 2023.

As chairperson of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), Bessent should immediately investigate SolarSpace Technology, according to Moreno.

"We cannot let this potential transaction proceed without investigation," Moreno wrote. "We cannot allow potential shell companies for the Chinese Communist Party to buy land or facilities near our most sensitive military and critical infrastructure sites, including Wright-Patterson Air Force Base."

Chinese entities owned 277,336 acres of U.S. agricultural land as of Dec. 31, 2023, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The holdings - concentrated in Texas, North Carolina, Missouri, Utah, and Florida - include properties located within 150 miles of at least 30 U.S. military installations.

Many states - including Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, and South Dakota - have taken legislative or executive action to address concerns about foreign ownership of U.S. land.

In 2024, Missouri Gov. Mike Parson signed an executive order banning China and other foreign adversaries from owning agricultural land within 10 miles of critical military facilities in the state. Missouri is home to several military facilities, including Whiteman Air Force Base, which hosts the nuclear-capable B-2 Spirit stealth bombers.

To confront the issue, Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) led a group of Republican senators, including Moreno, in reintroducing the Protect Our Bases Act (S.2116) in June 2025.

The legislation would "strengthen CFIUS to review these purchases near sensitive national security installations to protect our nation's security from being compromised by the CCP [Chinese Communist Party] and other enemies," Moreno said in a statement at the time.

SolarSpace Technology did not respond to a request for comment by the time of publication.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 06:30

Pentagon Crowdsources 'Creative, Unconventional' Ideas To Pressure Iran

President Trump's weekend somewhat comical, hyperbolic, or even absurd proclamation that he was planning an attack on Iran which would have been "the biggest attack since World War II" and could have been "disastrous" for Iran - before being called off - is raising serious questions. 

It is now month six of the war, but the same question could have been aptly posed in just the opening week of Operation Epic Fury: what constitutes a strategic 'win' and end goal for the United States in Iran? In a latest sign of growing desperation, now becoming more evident and out in the open, US Central Command (CENTCOM) formally asked military analysts to develop "creative and unconventional" ways to pressure Iran amid a broader administration reassessment of strategy.

CENTCOM file image

CNN says it has obtained an email sent out from US Central Command's intelligence branch across an array of military analysts urging new ideas. It is very uncommon for top commanders to broadly send such a request to lower-level troops.

"We are looking for new creative and unconventional ways to pressure and punish Iran," a CENTCOM intelligence officer wrote in the broad pitch. 

This comes after several times throughout this conflict, Trump vowed major attacks - which were later called off, also as Washington clearly can't find an exit.

The Pentagon actually rather quickly confirmed that this email calling for 'ideas' was indeed sent. "U.S. Central Command has a long history of thinking and working in innovative ways," CENTCOM spokesman Capt. Timothy Hawkins said in a statement. "Admiral Cooper, in particular, reaches out to members of our great team, regardless of rank, to achieve the highest levels of operational performance possible."

CNN described the move as essentially 'crowdsourcing' strike plans and strategy:

The crowdsourcing-style query, which military officials said was unusual over email, is one sign of the limited — and potentially unpalatable —options available to Trump to force Iran into a deal on his terms. Hoping to find an alternative, the official at CENTCOM kicked off the brainstorming session via email to see if anyone had a better idea. The second source said CENTCOM is looking at everything, acknowledging it needs to reevaluate the strategy.

Apparently Washington just can't seem to learn any of the obvious lessons of its own 'forever wars' of the last decades, stretching all the way back to Vietnam.

'Limited' bombing often leads to more massive bombing, which typically fails to achieve objectives - after which the question of introducing a ground force becomes more pressing. And then forces get entrenched in yet another quagmire, where 'winning' gets harder and harder to define, and where exit strategies become elusive. 

The CNN report points to the strategic conundrum in the following: "The request illustrated the challenge facing Trump as he considers three difficult paths: expanding the air campaign, committing US troops to riskier operations on the ground, or reaching an agreement that falls short of some of his original war objectives."

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S military is officially out of ideas on how to tackle Iran

According to CNN, the Pentagon sent out an email asking troops for ‘creative and unconventional’ ideas to punish Iran

That's CNN, not the Babylon Bee

The bizarre request came from an officer in U.S Central… pic.twitter.com/kUgNYigh3k

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) August 3, 2026

Also of note is the following:

The president’s most senior military adviser, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine, has acknowledged publicly that bombing alone is unlikely to accomplish all Trump’s previously stated objectives for the war.

"Air power has its limits," Caine told lawmakers last month.

One mainstream, establishment publication referenced that America keeps running headlong into the trap of "The Curse of Middle-Sized Wars".

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 05:45

UK Police Force Invites Non-Muslim Staff To Fast During Ramadan As Act Of Solidarity

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

West Midlands Police force is actively inviting non-Muslim officers and staff to go without food and water during Ramadan as a deliberate "act of solidarity" with Muslim colleagues.

The force presents this as a way for officers to grasp the "significance of Ramadan" for Muslim residents in one of Britain's most diverse regions. Critics see it as yet another example of public institutions bending their culture around one faith while the foundational principle of policing without fear or favour collapses under diversity dogma.

The invitation comes from the West Midlands Association of Muslim Police. Colleagues of all backgrounds are encouraged to fast for a day during the month-long festival, with the money they would normally spend on lunch donated to charity.

'I look forward to Christmas when all the Muslim officers have a tree in their house and join in.'@CressidaWetton reacts as West Midlands Police officers are invited to fast during Ramadan as an act of solidarity and to raise money for charity. pic.twitter.com/rmGxRxTKk8

— GB News (@GBNEWS) August 2, 2026

A force spokesman confirmed the practice has run for a number of years: "The West Midlands Association of Muslim Police has, for a number of years, invited colleagues from all faiths and backgrounds to fast for a day to raise money for charity during Ramadan. It is entirely a matter for officers and staff if they wish to take part."

"This is an initiative which is undertaken at a number of organisations around the country. The West Midlands has a large and diverse population, including many Muslim residents, and it is important for officers and staff to understand the significance of Ramadan to those communities," the spokesman added.

Documents obtained by the Telegraph through freedom of information requests show the force is held up as a model of inclusivity. A New Forest council diversity training memo praises West Midlands Police for supporting fasting colleagues with flexi-working so they can spend time with families.

It notes: "What's more, increasing numbers of non-Muslim staff have taken up fasting each year as an act of solidarity with their Muslim colleagues, adding to the family feel of WMP culture." Councillors were urged to brainstorm their own versions of such inclusivity.

Shadow Justice Secretary Nick Timothy did not share the enthusiasm. He called the encouragement of non-Muslim staff to observe Ramadan "wholly inappropriate."

"The police should be a national force for all of us, observing the same standards regardless of creed," Timothy said, adding "There should be no special measures in place for any faith."

"We should not be changing police culture to comply with the practices of one religion," he continued, adding "Expectations should be uniform, and non-Muslim police being encouraged to fast in Ramadan is wholly inappropriate. We need to abolish the Public Sector Equality Duty, which provides the legal framework for much of this, and ensure there is one rule for all of us - not special treatment for certain groups."

Major Andrew Fox, senior associate fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, went further. He linked the initiative to the force's recent controversies, including the exclusion of Israeli football supporters based on intelligence later shown to be false or exaggerated.

"West Midlands Police's judgment is increasingly open to question," Fox stated, adding "Supporting officers of every faith is entirely appropriate. Encouraging staff to participate in a religious observance is not. The police exist to enforce the law impartially, not to promote or facilitate religious practices."

Concerns have also been raised about operational readiness. Front-line officers abstaining from food and water for extended periods during demanding shifts raises obvious questions about concentration, physical performance and public safety. Yet the force frames the voluntary fast as cultural enrichment rather than a potential operational risk.

This episode does not stand alone. It fits a pattern of ideological capture that a Policy Exchange analysis has shown is systematically undermining British policing. Forces across England and Wales have poured hundreds of millions into DEI measures and the Police Race Action Plan since 2020.

The think-tank's head of crime and justice, David Spencer, warned that police chiefs have "sought to entrench the radical ideology of 'anti-racism' into British policing." In doing so, he argued, "some police chiefs have set policing against its own foundational principle - to act 'without fear or favour'."

Spencer concluded: "It is a modern-day tragedy that many of our Chief Constables simply cannot be trusted to resolve this alone. It's time to restore the principle of 'equality before the law' in policing. Nothing less than the fundamental legitimacy of British policing is at stake."

The human cost of this ideology has already been measured in real lives. In Southampton in December 2025, 18-year-old university student Henry Nowak was stabbed multiple times. His attacker, Vickrum Digwa, claimed he was the victim of a racist assault.

Bodycam footage shows officers treating the bleeding Nowak as the aggressor, handcuffing him while he pleaded that he could not breathe. He lost consciousness shortly after and died. An inquest has been ordered to examine whether the handcuffing and delays in medical treatment contributed to his death under Article 2 of the European Convention on Human Rights.

Serving and former Hampshire officers later told former Home Secretary Suella Braverman that mandatory DEI sessions had "drummed into us about our white privilege and unconscious bias."

The external trainer was described as "deeply hateful of white people and our culture." Officers reported feeling controlled and pressured to adopt specific views on race. Hampshire's chief constable denied the existence of two-tier policing, but the bodycam evidence and the subsequent admissions tell a different story.

Similar patterns appear elsewhere. Footage from Birmingham earlier this year captured officers intervening in a street attack by shielding three black males who had been punching a white teenager, then arresting and manhandling the bloodied victim while the attackers walked free.

Officers were heard ordering the restrained teenager into a police car with language that left little doubt about the direction of their aggression. West Midlands Police, the same force asked to participate in fasting, asked the public to stop sharing the clips rather than account for the conduct.

The same ideological framework has been institutionalised through training that forces officers to accept the concept of "white privilege." Thames Valley Police has mandated equity sessions focusing on white privilege, micro-aggressions and the shift from non-racist to anti-racist practice.

An independent review found the material could be seen as demonising white officers, creating barriers to learning and generating resentment among white male officers who felt disadvantaged.

Former government adviser and ex-police officer Rory Geoghegan observed that officers "deserve far better from their leaders than to be crudely categorised by skin colour and subjected to reductive, divisive ideologies."

When non-Muslim officers are invited to participate in Islamic religious observance under the banner of solidarity, while the same institutions have spent years instructing white officers on their supposed privilege and have been caught prioritising racial narratives over the immediate medical needs of a dying white teenager, the pattern is clear.

The Public Sector Equality Duty and the DEI apparatus that flows from it have produced a policing culture more interested in managed optics and protected group sensitivities than in equal application of the law.

Nick Timothy's call to abolish that duty is not abstract. It is a recognition that one rule for all has been replaced by a hierarchy of protected identities. West Midlands Police's Ramadan invitation is simply the latest public expression of that hierarchy.

British policing was built on the principle that the uniform represents the same standards for every citizen. That principle is being hollowed out, one diversity initiative at a time. The public is noticing. Trust is eroding. And the consequences are no longer theoretical.

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Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 05:00

Iron Ore Below $100 As UBS Warns "Fundamentals Are Deteriorating"

Iron ore futures in Singapore fell to their lowest intraday level in one year as deteriorating fundamentals continued to weigh on the market.

Steel demand in China remains soft amid an ongoing construction slump and weakening mill margins, while supply continues to increase, reinforcing expectations of a growing surplus.

Bloomberg noted earlier that the latest concerns surrounding major physical trader Radiant World added another layer of uncertainty, but the bigger bearish narrative remains centered on lackluster demand failing to absorb rising supply.

The outlet adds more color:

Vitol Group and Cargill Inc. have stopped doing business with Radiant World, a privately held company, amid concerns over fake invoices, Bloomberg News reported on Friday.

In addition, Intesa Sanpaolo SpA and Jefferies Financial Group Inc.'s Point Bonita fund were reviewing exposures to the company.

Radiant World — which has grown in recent years to become one of the market's main players — said the developments are "categorically untrue".

Separately, Myles Allsop, a London-based mining and metals research analyst at UBS, recently pointed out, "Iron ore fundamentals remain cautious; prices are starting to test the low end of the range."

Allsop questioned whether iron ore will trade above $100/t in 2027. He answered, "Probably not," and added:

Iron ore fundamentals are deteriorating with supply lifting while demand is soft; this has resulted in inventories lifting materially over the last 12 months.

We note cost support levels have lifted with higher diesel/ freight rates but these are set to moderate over the next 12 months if the ceasefire holds & oil/ gas prices normalise.

We expect iron ore prices to average ~$100/t in 2026 and moderate to ~US$95/t in 2027 with the market in a larger surplus and prices stepping down to trade just above the ~90th percentile of the value-in-use curve or ~$90/t (note).

We expect steel scrap to start to displace iron ore demand from 2027 when China's ETS gets tighter (although the scale and pace is opaque and dependent on highly fragmented collection and processing, as well as policy support).

Overnight, Iron ore futures extended their selloff, with benchmark Singapore contracts falling as much as 2.3% to $93.65 a ton, the lowest intraday level since July 2025, while the most-active Dalian contract dropped nearly 3%.

The price action suggests bearish sentiment toward the steelmaking raw material, as weakening Chinese demand, softer steel margins, and increasing supply are pressuring the market.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 04:15