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ID To Buy Gov't Bread & Milk, But Not To Vote: This Is Mamdani's Socialist NYC Utopia

So far, in Zohran Mamdani's socialist utopia in New York City, it can take multiple forms of identification to shovel snow and, if his proposal is implemented, potentially to shop at government-run grocery stores.

Yet New Yorkers still do not have to present voter identification during elections, and the hypocrisy is just off the charts, as this only highlights an inconsistency in the state's approach to identification requirements:

• ID Required: Shovel snow
• ID Required: Buy milk and bread at a gov't-run grocery store
• No ID Required: Voting in elections 

"We are looking to make sure that we target New Yorkers … sort of a library card-esque thing," one of Mamdani's socialist officials said.

Mamdani wants to protect tax payer funded grocery store from non-NYC residents… they’ll need an ID card to enter.

You can make this up. pic.twitter.com/lXs2SKdjBt

— Nick Plumb (@PlumbNick) August 2, 2026

Elon Musk, who has repeatedly backed the SAVE Act, a federal election proposal that would require documentary proof of U.S. citizenship to register for federal elections, weighed in on NYC's proposed identification requirements for government-run grocery stores with a pointed response: "Oh, the irony is too much …"

Oh, the irony is too much … pic.twitter.com/k0NgRxMoLT

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 3, 2026

"THIS IS JIM CROW 2.0! How dare Mamdani expect black people to have IDs? Am I doing this right or are IDs only racist when you have to show them to be able to vote in elections?" conservative activist Robby Starbuck wrote on X.

The problem with Democrats, socialists, and the far left, who are weaponizing their imported illegal alien army to vote in elections in places where no ID is required, is that the narrative that requiring ID is "racist" no longer works. There is a growing push for election security as socialists seek to exploit the system to seize as much power as possible at the local level and, in their own words, begin the collapse of the nation. Socialists are not after affordability. DSA flat-out says what they want: "The most important thing we can do is take that (American) empire down from within."

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 17:20

Study Finds Daily Marijuana Use Surpasses Daily Alcohol Consumption Among US Adults

Authored by Bryan Hyde via American Greatness,

Daily or near-daily marijuana use has surpassed daily alcohol consumption in the United States, reaching 20.9 million to 21.4 million daily users compared to roughly 17.2 million daily or frequent alcohol drinkers.

Fox News reports that new data from the 2025 National Survey on Drug Use and Health, from the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA), reveals that daily marijuana users outnumber the the 19.9 million people who smoke cigarettes and the 17.2 million who consume alcohol.

While tobacco and alcohol use has been plummeting, down 28 percent and 24 percent since 2021, daily pot use — including smoking and edibles — surged 21 percent.

Marijuana has officially surpassed both alcohol and cigarettes as the most-used daily substance among U.S. adults.

21.4 million use marijuana daily or almost daily, compared to 19.9 million daily cigarette users and 17.2 million daily alcohol users.https://t.co/yE6yjKgqgC pic.twitter.com/4d01T0rFQK

— Theo Holmes (@theo_69_holmes) August 3, 2026

According to SAMSHA, the biggest jump occurred between 2021 and 2022 with an increase of roughly 2.8 million users.

Between 2021 and 2025, the number of adults 18 and older using marijuana daily or almost daily increased about 22%, from 17.2 million to 20.9 million.

A Modern Health survey of 1,000 full-time employees in April 2026 found that 63% of the workforce engages in at least one form of self-medication after the workday, while 52 percent have self-medicated during the workday.

According to Fox News, Gen Z is the only generation of workers where THC use exceeded alcohol use after work – 59 percent report using marijuana products compared to 50 percent who drink alcohol.

Among 18-to 25-year-olds, roughly 10-12 percent reported daily or near-daily marijuana use, while only 3-5 percent drank and 9.6 percent smoked cigarettes daily or near-daily.

The study found daily cannabis use has accelerated rapidly among adults aged 26 and over with millions of Americans in their 30s, 40s, and 50s  now using cannabis daily or near-daily.

General past-month cannabis use rose to 15.1 percent, driven by state-level legalization, while frequent drinking and cigarette smoking continue to decline, according to Yahoo.

Fox News senior medical analyst Dr. Marc Siegel said the SAMHSA data shows a “very disturbing trend” and told Fox News Digital: “Too little attention has been paid to the growing THC content in all cannabis products, which makes it far more dangerous in terms of mental performance, judgement, memory and all forms of impairment.”

Seigel added, “So I firmly believe that the rising use – coupled with decreasing alcohol and cigarettes – is directly due to lack of awareness of all the dangers of marijuana versus an increased awareness of all the dangers of cigarettes and alcohol.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 17:00

Zelensky: We Seek To End War By Winter Through Escalation On Military, Diplomatic Fronts

Ukraine is openly advancing plans to escalate militarily against Russia, in hopes that it will force a return to diplomacy, and hasten an end to the war by winter time.

President Volodymyr Zelensky has made clear he aims to ramp up diplomatic, economic, and military pressure on Moscow, while acknowledging that a short timeline is ideal but likely very difficult to achieve. 

via Reuters

Speaking Monday at a gathering of Ukrainian ambassadors in the capital, Zelensky identified autumn 2026 as the target window. "We will try very hard to make this happen before winter, in the autumn," he said, according to Ukrainian national media.

But he quickly tempered expectations, adding: "We clearly understand who we are dealing with and that Putin hopes to continue dragging out this war."

According to Zelensky, the Kremlin is preparing for a prolonged conflict. "He is preparing mobilization at home and new strikes. We see Russia's true intentions, we are uniting our partners and putting pressure on the aggressor," he said in reference to Putin.

He said this campaign is to include continued reliance on allied military and economic measures, until Moscow has no realistic alternative but to negotiate.

Zelensky pointed to what his government calls "long-range sanctions" - Ukraine's term for strikes on Russian military and industrial infrastructure supporting the war, alongside conventional sanctions imposed by Western governments.

The objective, he said, is to bring all of these tools to "such a level of pressure that Russia is left with no alternative other than peace."

Lately attacks have expanded to include targeting online Russian retailer giant, Wildberries...

The attacked Wildberries warehouse near Vladimir is burning over an area of 100,000 square meters.

Forbes analysts estimated the losses of Russian businessmen from Ukrainian strikes on logistics warehouses at €2.3–3 billion. pic.twitter.com/QyJQQ6rIth

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) August 3, 2026

On Monday yet another large Wildberries warehouse went up in flames, this time in Vladimir region, marking the third attack in a mere two weeks on the e-commerce company's logistics network. There's been over a dozen similar attacks so far over the last month.

Zelensky has alleged these warehouses are involved in providing Russian forces with drone components, navigation equipment and other military supplies listed on its website. There have also been reports of underequipped Russian soldiers ordering straight from Wildberries to make up for front line deficiencies. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 16:40

Everybody Knows

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

“I underestimated how emotionally committed much of the press is to rallying around Anthony Fauci. His reputation is more important to them than anything. . .”

- Matt Taibbi

The baleful afterburn of Dr. Fauci’s one-sentence testimony (“On the advice of counsel, I respectfully decline to answer. . . .”) seeps over the land like some ghastly pestilence now. You couldn’t have seen a more vivid demonstration of manifest evil than the master bureaucratic grifter formerly self-styled as “The Science” stonewall his way through that fateful reckoning in Sen. Rand Paul’s committee hearing last Wednesday.

The score so far: over a million dead in America from the Covid-19 virus that Dr. Fauci helped develop starting as far back as the 1990s, with Dr. Ralph Baric of the University of North Carolina. Tens of thousands left with serious, lasting injuries from the vaccines they promoted. The exact number of vaccine-connected deaths unknown because the public health agencies refused to report honestly on an operation that they caused to happen. There are whole legions of high officials and doctors behind Dr. Fauci now desperate to cover their asses.

Along with the mendacious news media. HHS Sec’y Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. happened to be on Dana Bash’s CNN Sunday morning program. By the way, Dana Bash used to be married to one Jeremy Bash, Chief-of-Staff to CIA-Director Leon Panetta under Barack Obama. CNN lied consistently to the American people during the years of the Covid emergency. You have to wonder if CNN takes direction from the CIA, or maybe rogue elements in (or retired from) the agency. Sunday, Dana Bash went on offense against RFK,Jr.

Didn’t work. RFK, Jr. kept his cool. The harshest thing he said to Bash through all her hectoring was “you were part of the problem,” a startling understatement. Ms. Bash otherwise only wrecked herself, over-speaking her guest at every opportunity, pettifogging, and filibustering. Everybody could see what she was up to. Imagine how desperate CNN was to think that Dana Bash could bluster her way over Mr. Kennedy. He helped her expose herself as a tool.

The news media has been a very active co-conspirator in the Covid operation. You’d think Senator Paul might want to subpoena some network executives from CNN, CBS, NBC, MSNOW (especially), plus Executive Editor Joe Kahn of The New York Times (and his predecessor during Covid, Dean Baquet) to find out why they reported so much pure falsehood around the so-called pandemic. How did they happen to become the propaganda department for the Democratic Party, and what was the party’s interest in the Covid operation? D’unh. . . .

Everybody knows. Even the super-hyped-up cat ladies, nose-rings, NPR stars, and moiling transsters of the lefty-left know. They have kin and friends who either died on respirators with IV lines of remdesivir in their arms, or were gifted by the vaxx shots with turbo-cancer or myocarditis or neuromuscular disease or immune system failure or some mystery illness. They have been harmed even more than those of us who declined to get vaxxed. Sooner or later, that’s got to mean something.

As for Dr. Fauci’s motive in this huge fiasco. . . it’s got to be clear both from the record of his career — nicely reported in RFK,Jr’s 2021 book The Real Doctor Fauci — and from the 1000-plus-page personal diary he recorded on the HHS computers, that Fauci was doggedly in pursuit of glory. Glory! And that his personal holy grail was to find a “universal vaccine” that could defeat any virus, so as to be acclaimed by all mankind! Glory! Glory! Glory! Given what is understood now about viruses and their interaction with vaccines — for instance, the flu vaccine which uniformly fails to adapt to annual virus mutations — that Dr. Fauci’s quest was quixotic, very basically foolish. All he ever produced, from the AZT wonder-drug for AIDS he developed back in 1986 (that probably killed as many people as died from the disease itself) to the Pfizer / Moderna mRNA shots for Covid in 2021 . . . all that frantic, questing “science” just ended up killing and harming the credulous in large numbers. The buttoned-up little fellow appears to be guilty of mass-murder on an epic scale.

Of course, he is presumed to be protected by the autopen-signed peremptory pardon he received from minions of “Joe Biden.” Perhaps Dr. Fauci’s invoking the Fifth Amendment under those circumstances will prompt an overdue look at just how this autopen thing really worked. In any case, Dr. Fauci is liable to be voted in contempt of Congress this week for not answering any questions put to him. The connected legal procedure will keep Dr. Fauci’s misdeeds under public scrutiny for at least months to come.

It’s also a fact that the autopen pardon does not shield him from charges brought in state courts. The AGs of Florida, Louisiana, Alabama have declared investigations. Louisiana and Missouri have already made Dr. Fauci sit for depositions, and now they can compare his answers with the entries from his diary. It is obvious that on countless occasions and on many vital issues, Dr. Fauci told the public one thing while he believed (and recorded) the opposite in his diary.

One question that the public badly wants Secretary RFK,jr. to answer: how come you haven’t pulled the mRNA Covid vaccines altogether?

They don’t work and they harm people.

Why are they even still available? Would such a move amount to an admission that the whole emergency was a fake and a failure? And that the government’s own public health agencies are culpable? Would the survivors of the 268-million Americans who got the shots be a little pissed-off? What, then?

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 16:20

'Cycles Line Up Like They Did Before 1929': Charles Nenner Warns Of "Very Big Downturn" In Stocks'

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Renowned geopolitical and financial cycle expert Charles Nenner is usually way ahead of market moves.  When nobody wanted silver ($29), he was buying it.  When everyone wanted silver a few months ago ($120), he was selling it. 

So, what is Nenner seeing in the markets right now?  Let’s start with the big surprise prediction coming in oil prices.  Lots of people say oil is going higher, a lot higher.  There are plenty of predictions of oil breaking over $200 a barrel.  Heck, even President Trump thinks oil will hit $200, but Nenner says he’d be wrong.  Nenner explains:

“The crazy thing is, based on all my analysis, is crude oil looks weak for the next year.  I am not sure what it means. . .. I see oil going down longer term. 

Maybe other countries are going to find oil because they cannot rely on oil (from the straight of Hormuz) anymore.  By the way, Saudi Arabia has plans to make a pipeline through Israel to bring it to the sea.  So, they won’t need the Strait of Hormuz anymore. 

Intelligence will find a solution.  I think they are going to pump more oil.  If people think they will flood the world with oil from other countries, then the price will come down. . .. there may be an outside chance of oil hitting $101 (per barrel).”

On gold, Nenner predicts, “Some cycles are very interesting.  The gold cycle came down at $5,300 (per ounce).  We have a 30-day free subscription, and you can see those cycles.  They are close to bottoming now."

" Soon, there should be a new up move for gold.  We had a (downside) price target of around $3,800 per ounce.  We are very close.  So, gold starts looking good into 2027.” 

Nenner says the next gold bull market starts next month in August.

On silver, Nenner says:

 “Silver was a catastrophe because we had the cycle top at $121 (per ounce), and we couldn’t get people out of it. . ..

Silver is also going to be in a new bull market.   It could go back to the old highs of $120.”

On the stock market, Nenner says:

“The cycles in 1926 and 1927 line up like they did before the crash of 1929. 

This is almost August, and big investors have time to be very defensive. 

I want to repeat my forecast of a very big downturn in the stock market.”

Nenner likes cash, and he says watch out for big losses coming from some big banks. 

Nenner says:

“Real estate is a bad investment. 

I know big pension funds, and they have real estate in New York, and they are selling with a loss.  Other banks have losses, and nobody speaks about it—yet...

So, there is a lot going on that the average person doesn’t know. 

I know it because I work with these people, and things don’t look very safe...

I think we could have a banking crisis.”

There is much more in the 40-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes one-on-one with renowned cycle analyst and financial expert Charles Nenner for 7.31.26.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 15:40

Murders In The US Set To Hit 126-Year-Low Following Illegal Immigrant Deportations: DHS

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

Crime rates have fallen to “historic lows” across the United States, with homicides this year on track to register the lowest level in at least 126 years, according to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

In the first half of 2026, homicides were down 18 percent compared to the first half of last year, DHS said in a July 31 statement. Carjacking crimes tumbled 47 percent during this period, motor vehicle thefts fell 20 percent, robberies dropped 17 percent, and residential burglaries declined 13 percent.

The numbers come from a July 2026 report from the nonpartisan think tank Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) that assessed crime stats across various U.S. cities.

Compared to the first half of 2022, the second year of the Biden administration, homicides in the first half of 2026, the second year of the current Trump administration, were down by 51 percent, according to the CCJ report.

For violent crimes, 2 percent fewer aggravated assaults and 6 percent fewer gun assaults were reported in the first half of 2026 compared to the same period last year. However, domestic violence incidents were up 8 percent, and sexual assaults by 3 percent for this period.

When compared to the first half of 2019, the year prior to the COVID-19 pandemic onset, homicides, aggravated assault, gun assault, sexual assault, domestic violence, robbery, and carjacking crimes were all lower in the first six months of 2026, the report said.

In its statement, DHS gave examples of some of the illegal immigrants with criminal histories who have been deported from the United States: A Salvadoran national with convictions for homicide and assault, a Costa Rican with convictions for property crimes and burglary, a Honduran Tren de Aragua gang member convicted for robbery, and a Vietnamese national convicted for armed carjacking.

“President [Donald] Trump promised to make America safe again, and he has done just that,” Lauren Bis, assistant secretary at the DHS’s Office of Public Affairs, said in the statement.

“Crime has fallen to record lows under the Trump Administration.”

“It’s no surprise that this drop in crime coincides with deportations of dangerous criminal illegal aliens. It is common sense. When you remove criminals from the country, crime rates fall,” Bis said.

In the first year of the current Trump administration, almost three million illegal immigrants had left the United States, then-DHS Secretary Kristi Noem said in a Jan. 20 DHS statement.

Declining Homicides

The CCJ report said that there is no single explanation for the historic low in homicide crimes in the first half of the year. It cited potential impacts from changes in criminal justice operations and strategies, shifts in society and culture, and technological advances.

In a July 23 statement, CCJ said it planned on convening a two-day summit in September with researchers from fields such as criminology, psychology, economics, and sociology to examine the factors likely driving the decline in homicides.

“Murder and other crime rates are falling across the map, in cities with different political leadership, housing and economic conditions, policing and prosecution strategies, violence reduction models, and levels of federal enforcement activity,” CCJ president Adam Gelb said in the statement.

“Local policies and programs surely matter, but the striking consistency of the decline suggests that macro-level forces are exerting enormous influence as well,” Gelb said.

The White House attributed the crime decline in the first half of the year to the Trump administration’s policies in a July 29 statement.

America’s neighborhoods are now safer, registering fewer victims and a decisive end to the crime surge seen in the last decade, the White House said, highlighting that this was “not accidental.”

“It is the direct result of the Trump Administration’s relentless efforts to enforce the rule of law, back the police, and surge resources into communities,” according to the White House.

On Jan. 20, 2025, the first day in his second term, President Donald Trump signed an executive order restoring the death penalty, highlighting that capital punishment was an “essential tool” to deter and punish those who would commit heinous crimes.

The same day, Trump signed another executive order targeting illegal immigrants. In the order, Trump clarified that it is the policy of the United States to faithfully execute immigration laws against all removable illegal immigrants, especially those who “threaten the safety or security of the American people.”

And in April last year, Trump signed an executive order that focused on providing new best practices to local and state law enforcement to “aggressively police communities against all crimes.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 15:20

VC Money Floods Into US Nuclear Startups As AI Power Demand Explodes

Authored by Haley Zaremba via OilPrice.com,

• Global VC funding for nuclear fission and fusion startups has already topped $4.5 billion across 81 companies in 2026, on pace to beat 2025's $6.2 billion record.

• Big Tech figures including Sam Altman and Bill Gates are pouring money into fusion to keep up with AI's ballooning electricity demand.

• Critics warn the startup boom is skipping voluntary safety guardrails and pulling attention from proven large-scale reactor technology.

Venture capitalists are taking a major interest in nuclear energy start ups. Funding is surging for both nuclear fusion and fission firms as the technology becomes an increasingly essential part of a feasible pathway toward sustainable energy security in the face of the artificial intelligence boom.

According to reporting by Axios, global investment in both fission and fusion has topped USD $4.5 billion across 81 companies in 2026 so far. At this pace, by year’s end, this year will shatter 2025’s previous record of $6.2 billion for 93 companies.

Data center hyperscalers are driving up energy demand projections to previously unthinkable levels that will require an all-of-the-above approach to energy development that is likely to prominently feature nuclear energy as a round-the-clock source of zero-emissions electricity. In the United States, the public and private sectors alike are extremely bullish on the technology and clearly eager to usher in a new nuclear era. As a result, the majority of this year’s funding surge is going to U.S. companies.

Big Tech has taken a particular interest in expanding nuclear energy deployment and technological advancement to feed its own ballooning energy needs.

Some of the tech sector’s biggest names, including Bill Gates and OpenAI’s Sam Altman, are major investors in and advocates of nuclear fusion as an answer to AI’s ballooning energy problem.

"There's no way to get there without a breakthrough," he said at the 2024 World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. "It motivates us to go invest more in fusion."

The Trump administration, too, is a major proponent of nuclear energy expansion, with a particular focus on next-gen nuclear technologies as part of a broader push to "reestablish the United States as the global leader in nuclear energy” and “produce lasting American dominance in the global nuclear energy market.” To this end, Executive Order 14301, signed by Trump in May 2025, mobilizes significant resources from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Reactor Pilot Program to fast-track the testing and commercialization of advanced nuclear technologies in order to bring them to scale.

These advanced technologies include nuclear fusion as well as small modular reactors (SMRs) which hold major promise for overcoming some of the hurdles that have been causing nuclear energy to fall out of fashion in the United States. Traditional nuclear power plants are enormously costly and face long timelines and miles of red tape to come online. The country’s most recent traditional nuclear power plant, Georgia’s Plant Vogtle, finally came online years late and billions over budget. The hope is that modular and alternative technologies won’t face the same issues, as they can be built offsite relatively cheaply.

SMRs are still an emerging technology. While one SMR design has been officially approved for development in the United States, and many more firms are seeking approval for their plans, zero SMRs have yet come online in the country.

“The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission took about six years to approve the first advanced small reactor design, from fission developer NuScale,” Axios reports.

“President Trump has sought to accelerate the process, aiming for 18 months. But that still could give first movers a major advantage in locking down contracts with data centers and electric utilities.”

With the backing of both the federal government and Silicon Valley, it’s no surprise that nuclear startups are going gangbusters. But while the increasing fragmentation and privatization of the nuclear energy sector could be great for innovation and expansion of the technology, it also poses some key drawbacks. For one thing, nuclear startups have so far shown a concerning disregard for voluntary safety guidelines that were tacitly accepted in the nuclear sector until now.

In addition to safety concerns, some critics have argued that a focus on cutting-edge nuclear energy technologies and startups may be diverting energy and funding from proven technologies that would better serve nuclear power capacity addition goals. A recent op-ed for the Wall Street Journal argued that “The administration is chasing unproven technology when it could encourage Wall Street investment in large-scale reactors,” and, as a result, Trump’s nuclear renaissance is stalling.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 14:40

After Blockbuster IPO, China's Memory Giant CXMT Plans Second Chip Plant In Beijing

CXMT, China's largest chipmaker by output and certainly by market value thanks to its blowout IPO pricing one week ago, which saw its stock surge more than 7x from its offering price of 8.66 yuan per share, is considering building a second memory-chip plant in Beijing ​and is in financing talks with a tech manufacturing hub backed by the local government, Reuters reported citing source familiar.

The move ‌comes as CXMT, which is currently the world's 4th largest maker of DRAM memory but has ambitions to become the world's largest, seeks to boost production amid a global chip shortage driven by debf-funded AI infrastructure spending. It highlights intensifying competition among Chinese local governments to attract CXMT, as the memory chipmaker pursues a major expansion following its $8.6 billion IPO last month, the largest mainland Chinese semiconductor listing on record.

Reuters previously reported that CXMT was building new plants in Shanghai and Hefei and was in ​discussions with authorities elsewhere about another facility.

Those projects, when fully operational, could double its capacity to more than 600,000 wafers per month. The new Beijing ​12-inch plant would be built in Yizhuang, about 20 km (12 miles) southeast of central Beijing, where CXMT already operates a ⁠fab producing dynamic random access memory (DRAM) chips. CXMT currently operates two 12-inch DRAM ​fabs in Hefei and one in Beijing, each with capacity of about 100,000 wafers per month, the Reuters sources said.

CXMT is seeking at least 60 million yuan ($8.9 ​million) in support from the development zone's governing body, also known as the Beijing Economic-Technological Development Area, and other state-owned tech companies have also expressed interest in participating ​in the financing, they said.

The talks are at an early stage and the size and structure of any funding package could change, the sources said. It was not immediately clear whether the funding would come directly from the development zone's administrative authority or through its investment vehicles.

Reuters adds that the planned capacity and total ​investment for the proposed fab were not immediately known. Building a fab that can produce leading-edge DRAM chips usually costs more than $10 billion. 

The discussions began before CXMT's stock market debut last week, which provided ‌the company ⁠with fresh capital for an expansion drive during a memory-chip upcycle fueled by demand from AI infrastructure, data centres and consumer electronics. 

The company has become a key pillar of Beijing’s drive to build a self-sufficient chip industry and narrow the gap with the U.S. in strategic technologies such as AI amid a fierce tech rivalry between the two superpowers.

Although CXMT is the world's fourth-largest DRAM producer, it remains far smaller than Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Micron whose combined global ​market share approached 90% in the ​first quarter, according to data from ⁠Counterpoint Research.

Within China, however, CXMT's growing dominance has enabled it to raise prices for customers such as Huawei, Reuters reported last month. 

CXMT has been in the news over the past couple of months due to reports that have suggested that Apple is interested in buying the firm's memory chips. The global memory shortage has affected the Cupertino, California-based consumer electronics giant's supply chain as it has been unable to secure supplies without having to face price hikes.

Yet, as wccftech reports, others have suggested that CXMT's ability to target the global memory market is limited, as the firm has to primarily meet the needs of China's domestic memory market. US sanctions on China, which limit its ability to procure high-end chips and manufacturing equipment, have come at a time when Beijing is aiming towards semiconductor self-sufficiency despite the capital and knowledge-intensive nature of the industry. 

Today's report follows one that surfaced last week and claimed that CXMT was making progress with its LPDDR6 memory chips. These are among the latest in the world, and the sources suggested that the Chinese firm was eager to target the gap left by Samsung and Micron. The two are focused on making high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips, and CXMT hopes to utilize the gap they've left to establish itself as a player in the global memory market. The sector is currently dominated by the two firms plus Korea's SK hynix, which control the vast majority of the market share.

The company's rise has been closely linked to the "Hefei model," under which the capital of Anhui province has used state funding to ​nurture strategic technology companies... because as we said a year ago, it is only a matter of time before the AI arms race is directly funded by the governments of China and the US directly. 

Beijing and Shanghai have also provided CXMT with funding and other support, as the cities seek a larger share of the economic and strategic benefits generated by the company's growth. 

CXMT's Beijing-based fab, operated by Changxin Jidian, was founded in 2020 and received funding from E-Town Capital, a state-backed investment arm of the Yizhuang development zone, and its ⁠affiliate Beijing ​E-Town Technology, according to corporate records.

The Beijing development area is a manufacturing base for technology and ​chip companies, including contract chipmaker SMIC, chip equipment maker Naura Technology and smartphone and electric-vehicle maker Xiaomi. 

The area is also positioning itself as a hub for robotics and AI. Last year, it hosted what organisers ​described as the world's first humanoid robot half-marathon, part of an effort to promote and test embodied-AI technologies.

News of China's aggressive push to boost memory output is one of the reasons for the weakness in memory and chip stocks in early trading, and also slammed Korea's Kospi which slumped 5% with Samsung / Hynix both tumbling -9%. 

Additionally, the market is again focused on Chinese open-source model releases, with BABA +4% on new Qwen model this weekend as well as DeepSeek V4 Flash model launched Friday. 

As reported earlier, BABA’s latest Qwen 3.8 Max Model was released overnight (stock closed +7% in HK) - a 2.4t parameter model (smaller than Kimi K3 @ 2.8t ) but looks relatively comparable on benchmarks (I.e. broadly Opus + level) and will go open-weight release next week.

The model is also far cheaper: API tokens are priced at $2/m input & $6/m output (cheaper than Kimi K3 @ $3/M input & $15/M ⁠output)...  & 80% cheaper than current GPT flagship 5.6 Sol's output tokens.

Qwen3.8-Max by @Alibaba_Qwen has reshaped the cost-performance Pareto frontier in Frontend Code Arena, with pricing of $2 per input MToken and $6 per output MToken.

Top models on the Pareto frontier:
- Claude-Opus-5
- Kimi-K3
- Qwen3.8-Max
- GLM-5.2
- DeepSeek-V4-Flash

Congrats… https://t.co/3S4tW1KmlI pic.twitter.com/CiWU7Hh4BD

— Arena.ai (@arena) August 3, 2026

The marketing campaign has been well received showing Qwen as an “always on workmate” that completes tasks while people go to the beach, fish & play tennis. 

Over the weekend, Goldman revised up its aggregate China model ARR estimates, now forecasting to reach US$13bn by year-end 2026 (prior: US$10bn) on higher demand /faster ramp.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 14:00

Kalshi & Polymarket's Combined Volume Reaches All-Time High In July, Topping $50 Billion

Authored by Danny Park via TheBlock.co,

Kalshi and Polymarket saw their combined trading volume soar to a new all-time high in July as prediction markets continued to gain steam around the World Cup.

According to The Block's data dashboard, Kalshi, Polymarket, and Polymarket US posted $50.59 billion in combined monthly trading volume in July, marking a 7.8% increase from June's $46.95 billion monthly volume.

Kalshi remained in the lead, and recorded $37.7 billion in the past month. This marks a 14% month-over-month growth.

Notably, the monthly data indicates a shift in volume between Polymarket and Polymarket US. While Polymarket's monthly volume contracted 26% to $7.9 billion, the U.S. platform saw its volume rise 54% to $5 billion. The combined volume of Polymarket and Polymarket US decreased from $14 billion to $12.9 billion.

The U.S. platform, regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, dropped its initial waitlist restrictions in May, opening the platform to all U.S. users. This allowed U.S. traders who had previously bypassed regional blocks to participate legitimately on the platform. 

Earlier this year, Rutgers University statistician Harry Crane estimated that U.S. traders drove about 30% of Polymarket's main, offshore platform volume during the 12 months ending April 30, 2026.

World Cup boost

July's overall surge in volume can be attributed to the FIFA World Cup, which started on June 11 and ended on July 19. Kalshi's prediction market on the final match between Spain and Argentina alone drew roughly $1.9 billion. Polymarket's bet predicting the World Cup winner attracted around $4 billion.

Since the end of the World Cup, however, open interest on the three prediction market platforms has dropped significantly, from around $2 billion at the start of July to $1.2 billion by the end of the month.

Despite growing activity and legitimacy, prediction markets continue to face U.S. legal scrutiny, primarily over sports-related contracts. 

Over a dozen state regulators have accused Kalshi and Polymarket of operating unlicensed gambling platforms, taking action to block event contracts in their respective states. In response, the platforms — alongside the CFTC — are contesting these state enforcement actions, arguing that federal oversight preempts state jurisdiction.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 13:40

Is The Momentum Crash Over?

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

What a week that was...

Despite a hopeful bounce to end the month, it was a bloodbath for most assets. It was the Nasdaq’s worst July in 22 years, bonds’ biggest July yield spike since 2005, and oil’s biggest July jump in over 30 years.

Leaving investors with one big trillion-dollar question: is the momentum crash over?

As I discussed on Thursday on the Real Investment Show, the average retail investor portfolio is likely faring far worse than the broad market index. The momentum crash we just lived through was the fastest on record. It ended last Thursday with a $45 billion hedge fund handing its entire public equity book to Citadel in a single block trade.

None of it should have been a surprise. On June 22, in The Technical Backdrop: When Flows Meet a Hawkish Fed, I wrote that a market running on flows, leverage, and shrinking leadership could melt up into July. It could also reverse hard the moment those mechanical buyers turned into sellers. The close of that piece was blunt, and was published on the exact day momentum peaked. It is also named the mechanism.

“Lastly, watch the long end of the curve. If Warsh’s signal keeps the ten-year climbing, the most expensive, most crowded, most rate-sensitive corner of this market, the same one soaking up forty cents of every dollar, is the corner that pays for it first.“

The most crowded corner of this market, the one soaking up forty cents of every S&P 500 dollar, would pay for rising yields first. That is precisely what happened. Two weeks ago, Momentum Meltdown Catches Traders By Surprise flagged the same divergence in miniature. Last week, The AI Capex Bill Comes Due walked through the $800 billion megacap air pocket. The only question left is whether the correction is finished or whether this was the first act.

Momentum Crashed. The Average Stock Did Not.

Start with the magnitude, because the numbers are without precedent. Morgan Stanley’s sector-neutral momentum index fell 17.4% over four sessions, the worst four-day stretch in the history of the series. The comparable declines were roughly 11% after the dot-com peak and again in the 2022 inflation bear, and 14% after the Covid crash. The technology and media slice of that basket dropped 36% in four days, against a prior record near 20% set in the 1999 to 2001 unwind.

You can see the same thing in instruments you can actually trade. The iShares Momentum ETF fell 18.0% from its June 22 peak to its July 29 low, and semiconductors, measured by SOXX, surrendered 29.0% over those same twenty-five sessions. Momentum broke. The equal-weight S&P 500 closed at a record high on July 28. Right in the middle of the wreckage.

While for many retail investors, it may “feel” like a market crash, it wasn’t. It was a rotation, and leveraged traders were liquidated.

None of that is new. In More Market Wisdom: Jesse Livermore, Part 2, we walked through how leadership rotates across cycles. The Nifty Fifty became the laggards of the late 1970s. Technology dominated the late 1990s, then delivered a lost decade. Energy was close to unownable from 2014 through 2020, then led the market in 2021 and 2022. Staying rigidly committed to yesterday’s leaders is the most reliable path to underperforming in the next cycle.

Diversification is what converts that rotation from a portfolio problem into a portfolio feature. We covered the practical version in Momentum Strategies, and Physics: Mass And Velocity Matter, and the structural version in The Passive Aggressive Market, where investors rotate hard between factor ETFs and still call it passive investing. Last week priced the difference. Own the equal-weight index, and you made a record high on July 28. Own the momentum factor, and you gave back 18%.

Leverage Was The Mechanism. Rates Lit The Fuse.

During Thursday’s meltdown, I called Michael Lebowitz, and we discussed that it “felt” as if someone was being liquidated. It turned out that a hedge fund, Situational Awareness, which ran leverage roughly 4x its equity base through total return swaps, was the victim. Within a day, it liquidated nearly 3/4 of its holdings.

It is the structure that matters. Prime brokers hold the physical shares while the client takes the economic exposure, so the position never appears in a public filing, and no single broker sees the whole book. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Bank of America were the counterparties here.

Here is the crucial point: When the collateral fell far enough, the “Prime Brokers” decided to sell. Not the fund.

We have written that sentence before, in Margin Debt Surges As Bulls Leverage Bets:

That process is at the discretion of the broker-dealers that extended that leverage in the first place.

So what tipped the collateral? Rates. After the FOMC meeting this past week, the front end of the curve barely flinched. The long end did the damage, with the 30-year closing that day at 5.20%, its highest level in 19 years. Nothing in this market is more sensitive to the long end than an unprofitable growth stock bought with borrowed money.

The backdrop was already stretched thin. Margin debt set another record in June at $1.50 trillion, up 49% from a year ago, while the net investor credit balance sank to a record negative $1.06 trillion. That is the thinnest cushion against forced selling ever recorded, a point we walked through in Margin Debt Risk: The Ratios That Mislead Investors.

The timing in the chart below is what matters. Leverage actually fell from January into March. Then it went vertical. Margin debt jumped 23.0% in the three months through June, and the credit cushion thinned by $268 billion over that same stretch. That build topped out precisely as momentum did.

Situational Awareness was not the only leveraged buyer in that corner, either. Citadel’s desk put levered ETF assets at a record $218 billion in June, up roughly 60% from the end of March, with semiconductor-linked leverage nearly tripling. We mapped where that money was pointing in A Supply Tsunami Is Coming.

The Daily Shot tracks a slightly wider universe, and its version shows the round trip. Net market exposure across US levered and inverse ETFs peaked near $436 billion in mid-June, about 3.4 times its level in the summer of 2021. It has since fallen 27%, and fund assets are down 25% from their peak.

That is the retail mirror of the de-grossing of the reported prime desks. It also explains why Thursday had so much fuel. Two dollars in a 3x fund carries six dollars of market risk, so when that complex shrinks, the selling is mechanical, and then it stops.

The Fundamentals Never Broke

Here is where the opportunity argument lives, and it deserves a fair hearing. Microsoft grew Azure revenue 43% in constant currency, above a 40.2% estimate, and surpassed $100 billion in annual Azure revenue for the first time. Amy Hood told the Street that capital spending will grow again in fiscal 2027. Amazon lifted its 2026 capex plan toward $220 billion on an AWS-driven beat.

That scorecard kills the simple version of the story. Amazon spent the most of anyone, $53 billion against $45 billion of operating cash flow, printed the worst free cash flow in the group, and jumped about 9% after hours. Alphabet spent less, burned less, and fell 7%.

So, why the difference? It clearly was not an issue of “cash flows” as the narrative suggests. What separated them was evidence that the spending is already earning inside the operating line.

• AWS grew 37% with segment operating income up 64% and margin back to 39.4%.
• Azure grew 43% with remaining performance obligations at $678 billion.

However, Meta went the other way, with operating income down 8% and the margin down from 43% to 31%. After that, the market did the talking with Microsoft rising 15.5% on Thursday, and Meta falling 8.0% in the same session. This wasn’t surprising after Meta missed by more than a $1 per share, guided Q3 revenue to the low end, and declined to commit to a 2027 spending figure.

The market is not punishing capital spending, nor rewarding cash flow. It is paying for proof that the spending is already earning inside the operating line. Read that again, because it is the entire trade.

Both halves of that scorecard are distorted by a single timing mismatch, which I laid out in “AI Capex Depreciation Risk Is The Catch To Record Earnings.” Cash leaves now, so free cash flow understates these businesses. Depreciation lands later, so operating income flatters them. Roughly $760 billion in spending this year is offset by only about $211 billion in recognized depreciation.

So is the market mispricing Alphabet, which is investing, against Apple, which is not? Partly, yes. Alphabet was sold on an in-line core quarter, not a broken one, and 82% cloud growth against a contracted backlog is not a sign of a business in trouble. But that is not a free option either.

Consensus already assumes free cash flow snaps back from roughly $16 billion this year to $387 billion by 2029. That snapback is an assumption, not a result. And Microsoft just stretched the useful life of its data centers from fifteen years to twenty-five, which cuts reported depreciation without changing a single server. Demand is REAL. What broke was the financing stacked on top of it, and who pays the depreciation bill remains unsettled.

Is The Correction Over? The 2000 Playbook Says No.

So, for the one question everyone wants an answer to: “Is it safe to go back into the ‘momentum’ waters?”

BTIG’s Jonathan Krinsky called time on the momentum crash Thursday morning, and on the bounce I think he’s right. Goldman’s high-minus-low momentum index had fallen 23% below its 200-day average after sitting 40% above it in mid-June. It has rarely spent much time beyond 20% below that line in twenty-five years. Stretched is stretched. A dislocation that extreme produces a Thursday almost mechanically, and Microsoft’s print gave buyers a reason to show up at once.

However, a bounce is not a bottom. Krinsky’s own 2000 comparison is the useful part of that note. One month past the dot-com peak, the SOX had fallen 35%. It then rallied roughly 37% and still went on to test its 200-day moving average. Semiconductors closed Thursday 23.0% below the June 22 peak, 11.1% under the 50-day moving average, but still 25.6% above the 200-day.

Sit with that last figure for a second. Even after the fastest momentum crash on record, SOXX trades a quarter above its own long-term trend line. Trapped longs from June do not sell on the first bad day. They sell into the first rally that gets them close to even.

What Should Investors Do Now

Okay, what do we do now heading into the seasonal weak months of August and September? First, treat this bounce as a gift for repositioning, not an invitation to re-risk. The forced seller is gone. But Citadel holds a large block of the same paper and has no obligation to keep it. Secondly, if the 30-year keeps threatening a multi-year breakout, that adds to the risk, and that one variable decides whether the AI complex gets a durable bid or another leg lower.

However, there are opportunities in the rubble, and the following is a quick screen to start from, grouped by what each name actually does in the buildout. Look at the last column before anything else, because Friday rewrote it. Five names now sit above where they were at the momentum peak, and the top two are Microsoft and Amazon, the two heaviest spenders in the group. While some of the selling was certainly due to the liquidation of Situational Awareness, not all of it was. Everything that builds, supplies, or finances the buildout, without yet showing a return, is still down 10% to 47%.

Two things follow. The levered bucket is already flushed, so the case for trimming it is no longer about valuation; it is about which balance sheets survive a retest. And the builders and suppliers are where contracted revenue meets washed-out prices, which is the part of this list I would spend the weekend on.

My read is a tradable rally that fails that potentially fails, particularly if rates continue to push higher this week. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong by buying quality early. That’s the cheaper mistake. We continue to suggest using strength to upgrade quality, cutting names whose only thesis was price momentum, and holding cash to act on a retest of support.

Trade accordingly.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 13:00

Texas Approves AI Data Center Co-Location Next To Wind Farm, With Curtailment Caveats

By Marlene Wilden of UtilityDive

The Public Utility Commission of Texas last week approved a net metering arrangement for a 260-MW AI data center co-located with a wind farm of approximately the same capacity in a case that could serve as a template for other co-located loads in the Lone Star State.

The data center is the second one planned for the site, and the developer had argued it should not be subject to the same curtailment requirements as the first because the total load of both – about 525 MW – exceeds the generation resource’s capacity of 265.5 MW. 

An Oncor substation in December 2025 next to an up to 600-MW Skybox data center in Hutto, Texas. A data center net metering arrangement approved by the Public Utility Commission of Texas on July 24, 2026, could serve as a template for other co-located loads in the Lone Star State. Getty Images

The commission rejected that argument. According to the July 23 order, the data center must be capable of curtailing its full load within 30 minutes during grid emergencies, with physical breaker disconnection if necessary. It is also barred from participating in paid demand response programs tied to the arrangement.

The proceeding represents one of the first major tests of Texas’ SB 6, which became law last year and established new rules for large loads in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas’ territory, including giving the grid operator the authority to disconnect data centers during grid emergencies.

Rather than creating a project-specific exception, commissioners largely adopted ERCOT’s proposed reliability conditions. The order allows the co-location arrangement to move forward while establishing operating requirements for future behind-the-meter projects. 

Chris Talley, co-founder of GridTracker, wrote in a LinkedIn post following the decision that the order is not a “death blow” to co-location in ERCOT.

“It just means that this architecture now essentially requires full backup capacity,” he said.

In a follow-up message to Utility Dive, Talley clarified that by “full backup,” he meant resources capable of carrying the load off-grid for a meaningful period of time, rather than simply riding through a short interruption. He cautioned that this was an “untested assumption” and pointed to a pending co-location application from Amazon and Vistra to build a data center campus next to the Comanche Peak nuclear plant, southwest of Fort Worth, as a case to watch. 

“How ERCOT and the Commission treat that arrangement will be very telling,” Talley said.

The decision requires the data center to operate with greater flexibility than a traditional industrial load. The order states ERCOT should provide 60 minutes’ advance notice “when practicable,” while allowing the operator to voluntarily commit to a faster 10-minute response. 

By prohibiting the project from receiving compensation for reducing its load during grid emergencies, the order distinguishes mandatory emergency curtailment from voluntary grid services. The ruling treats the ability to rapidly shut down as a reliability requirement for operating behind generation.

Crusoe, the developer of the AI data center, and Ensign, the large load customer that plans to operate the site, argued that forcing the entire site offline was disproportionate and that additional curtailment was unnecessary after the earlier reliability condition on the co-located wind project. Commissioners largely adopted the administrative law judge’s recommendation, including revisions from Chairman Thomas Gleeson, and concluded that allowing the second load to remain online while the first is curtailed would undermine the goal of ensuring generation capacity is available to the grid during emergencies. 

The case also attracted filings from the Texas Competitive Power Advocates and natural gas producer BKV, which argued the proposed framework could discourage future co-location projects. PUCT staff contended those parties lacked standing under the governing statute, and the commission’s final order did not address their arguments.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 12:20

Trump Blasts Oil Majors: "Get Gas Prices Down Now!"

President Trump blasted oil companies on Monday morning for high gasoline pump prices, telling them:

That goes for other Oil Companies as well…and get your consumer (retail!) Oil Prices DOWN, NOW! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DJT

As of Monday morning, the national average for 87-octane gasoline at the pump stood at $4.09 a gallon, according to AAA data, marking the second consecutive week above the politically sensitive $4 threshold. Pump prices surged following the tit-for-tat strikes between the US and Iran, although upward momentum has begun to moderate as both sides signal a willingness to pursue a negotiated resolution to the conflict.

Here's the timeline of our reporting:

July 15: US Gasoline Prices Could Top $4 Per Gallon Within Days

July 20: US Gas Prices Cross Politically Sensitive $4 Level Closely Watched By Trump

July 24: Gas Prices Nearing Levels That Could Push Trump Towards Iran Talks, Says JPM Commodities Expert

Then diplomacy:

August 2: Trump Says "Perimeters Of A Deal Reached" With Iran To Reopen Hormuz After Call With Saudi Crown Prince

August 3: Iran Denies Negotiations With US After Trump Announces Talks For Monday Afternoon

Latest energy reporting:

Three Reasons Gas Prices Are Likely To Remain Elevated

"Diesel Is At Epicenter Of Supply Squeeze,": Goldman

"Really Only One Thing Worries Us A Lot": Here's What Keeps Goldman's Commodities Guru Up At Night

Trump's pressure on major oil companies to bring down gasoline prices comes as the national average remains above the politically sensitive $4-a-gallon threshold, with the midterm elections now less than 100 days away. Elevated fuel costs risk becoming a political liability, which helps explain why Washington is racing toward diplomacy following the recent tit-for-tat strikes.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 12:00

Groundhog Day

By Benjamin Picton, senior market strategist at Rabobank

It’s Monday morning again and it feels like Groundhog Day as I sit down to write that the US President has (again) halted strikes on Iran and teased that a diplomatic breakthrough is close. Brent crude prices have dutifully fallen in early trade, risk currencies are rallying and equity markets are poised to extend the gains posted late last week.

In his trademark bloviating style, President Trump posted to Truth Social that the USA was “locked and loaded” to unleash “levels of Military Terror, Strength, and Power not seen since World War II”, but that “for the future benefit of the WORLD” he had responded to a request from Iran and other Middle Eastern countries to hold off as the outline of a deal had been agreed. Trump went on to claim that the deal would include the “Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT”, as well as an end to the Iranian nuclear threat.

Obviously we’ve heard this one before. Iran’s Fars news agency reports that “informed sources” deny that any agreement has been reached on the status of the Strait of Hormuz, and that policy regarding the critical shipping route remains unchanged.

Meanwhile, Iran’s IRNA news agency reported that negotiations between Iran and Oman over the administration of the strait are in the final stages. Foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said that talks have centerd around agreeing a new route for shipping, and that the talks are unrelated to the question of whether Hormuz is open or closed. He said that issue is a separate discussion. However, markets will take the positive signal that agreeing a new shipping route implies future shipping. What it does not tell us is where the ships will head to and under what conditions.

Of course, the other aspect of the Hormuz Groundhog Day is that later in the week strikes typically resume, oil prices rally, equities sell, and bond yields rise. While there is every chance of that happening this week for now the impression seems to be of ‘strikes for strikes’. This would require somebody to break the current pause that seems to suit the purposes of both sides for the moment. Encouragingly, Iranian sources continue to stress “proportionality” in responding to US aggression, which seems to imply an unwillingness to escalate, but there also continues to be a sense that the civilian government in Tehran is not on the same page as the IRGC – who broke the most recent pause in hostilities by attacking US targets in Jordan.

Less than five days left until Trump announces the next massive Iran strikes at 4:01pm on Friday

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 3, 2026

The relentless logic of arithmetic continues to be the critical factor in Middle East developments. Markets have so far taken large draws in global inventories in their stride with price rises mostly insufficient to cause severe demand destruction. At the same time, higher prices have induced a supply response by lifting US oil rig counts by almost 11% since the war broke out, increasing refinery capacity utilization, and prompting OPEC+ to announce another 188,000 lift in production quota from September onwards.

The physical realities of war in the Eastern Europe and the Middle East have rendered the latter a mostly theoretical increase for the time being, but could contribute to a structural reshuffling of the energy deck on the other side of the current crisis. Product markets continue to provide the clearest hints of the seriousness of the current supply squeeze, with Singapore gasoil spot prices still sitting more than two standard deviations above the long-run spread to Brent.

China continues to play the role of balancing entry in global energy trade while also pedalling faster than most to reduce its dependence on imported energy. The manufacturing investment boom in solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles is helping to offset the slow-motion trainwreck that is the Chinese real estate market, while also building supply chain resilience and doing planet Earth a solid with regards to climate change.

While geopolitics and a protectionist tilt away from Chinese goods in an effort to safeguard domestic supply chains is underway, some are still happy to take the subsidy from China and import those cheap goods to boost domestic living standards. Australia is one such country, where new household battery installations in the first half of 2026 was roughly equal to total household battery installed capacity in the United States, a country with more than twelve times the population. BloombergNEF reports that Australia now ranks third globally in terms of installed battery capacity, behind only the USA and China. This sounds good in the short term, but critics will note that this perhaps invites new risks for Australia’s domestic energy infrastructure – not to mention the trade and security relationship with the United States.

Electric vehicle sales has similarly surged since energy flows through Hormuz were interrupted, with battery and hybrid vehicle sales reaching almost 50% of total sales in Q2 and interrupting Australia’s long-running love affair with diesel pickup trucks. The surge in EV sales has accrued mostly to new market entrant brands from China and to (largely Chinese-made) Tesla. Year-on-year sales growth in June was 131% for BYD, 89% for Tesla, 327% for Geely, 569% for Jaecoo, 1660% for Zeekr and 316% for Leapmotor. Four of the top ten, and seven of the top twenty best-selling brands are now Chinese.

The success of those new entrant Chinese brands highlights the challenges faced by legacy manufacturers in the US, Japan, South Korea and, especially, Europe – where marques such as Fiat and Citroen have already exited the market, while Peugeot is reportedly considering a similar move. In an era where supply chain sovereignty and industrial capacity matters for national security, how can legacy manufacturers compete with the Chinese industrial juggernaut without meaningful restrictions on Chinese trade or massive export subsidies of their own?

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 11:00

"Really Only One Thing Worries Us A Lot": Here's What Keeps Goldman's Commodities Guru Up At Night

Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman, joined Bloomberg TV on Monday morning and warned that diesel sits at the epicenter of a worsening global fuel supply squeeze, as Ukrainian drone and missile strikes disrupt Russian refining and the US-Iran war disrupts tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Dart joined Haslinda Amin on Insight with Haslinda Amin to discuss growing risks in diesel markets.

She warned, "The situation in Russia is really one thing that worries us a lot," adding, "The Russia issue has been going on now for, what, four years? So this can keep going."

Amin asked Dart: "And finally, your conviction call. What's the one bet in the commodity space for the next 12-24 months?"

Dart responded:

"Yeah, so I've mentioned a couple of things. I'd say on the oil side, as I mentioned before, diesel, I think is the oil product that is most vulnerable right now, not just because you have your seasonal demand strength ahead just in the winter, but on the supply side. And to your point in the beginning, it's not just that you run war, it's what's happening to the Russian refineries as well. And Russia is usually a pretty big exporter of diesel. And now they have restricted it."

Dart continued:

"So we are recommending a long diesel time spread. So going long the December contract of this year and short, the March contract of next year, so a spread trade.

And on the natural gas side, the sort of controversial call that we have is that after this crisis is over, this is a market in oversupply. So we look at the forward end of the curve, the back end of the curve, and it's overpriced. So we have been recommending a short for summer 2028 European natural gas TTF."

Watch 

Dart's conversation with Amin builds on another Goldman note published last week by commodity expert Daan Struyven, who warned that "Diesel is at the epicenter of the supply squeeze." 

Struyven introduced a new global refinery-runs nowcast, estimating that global refinery runs have plunged to their lowest seasonal level since the Covid era. 

Last week we noted that European gasoil crack has surged above $70 a barrel as refiners run near capacity, with diesel and jet supplies constrained by outages, shipping risks, and reduced Russian exports.

The diesel market is increasingly becoming a focal point for Goldman's commodities team as tight global supplies head into the seasonally stronger winter demand period. Disruptions stretching from the Hormuz chokepoint to Russian refinery outages and export restrictions are tightening an already constrained market, raising the risk of further price increases. If these supply pressures persist into winter, diesel could emerge as one of the most closely watched commodities.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 10:40

Here's Why the US Manufacturing Surveys Are Diverging So Dramatically...

Update (1015ET): As we noted below, there was a significant divergence between the two manufacturing surveys for July... which is not that unusual, and also an odd divergence between falling inflation expectations and universally rising commodity prices.

Based on the responses to the ISM survey, we may have found the answer... and it's a familiar one in this bifurcated economy...

• Green ones from AI, semiconductor, electronics and machinery firms report strong demand from AI data centers, chips and defense.

• Red ones from metals, transportation, chemicals and consumer-related sectors report weak demand, tariffs, higher costs, geopolitical risks and pricing chaos.

Simply put, the AI supply chain is booming; the rest is not.

*  *  *

Despite the recent slide in 'hard' data, US Manufacturing remained positive in July,and depending on which survey you are watching, was either flat... or surging.

• S&P Global US July Manufacturing PMI flat at 53.9 vs 53.8 flash and 53.9 for June - three month lows

• ISM US July Manufacturing PMI jumped to 55.6 vs 53.9 exp and 53.8 for June - highest since May 2022

Under the hood, ISM's Survey showed better than expected improvements across the board...

• Prices Paid 71.1, Exp. 71.0

• Employment 52.8, Exp. 50.0

• New Orders 56.7, Exp. 56.7

Inflation lower, orders and jobs higher...

But, S&P Global's PMI survey suggested evidence of supply chain disruption was also prominent in the latest survey data, with manufacturers signaling one of the sharpest deteriorations in vendor performance over the past four years. This contributed to slower growth in both inventories and purchases of pre-production goods, which eased to three- and four-month lows respectively

However, “although the headline PMI held steady in July," Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, warns that "beneath the survey we see some warning signs about the future growth trajectory."

Production rose at a markedly slower rate in July, linked to a third month of weakened growth of new business, in turn reflecting reduced inventory building after the especially strong precautionary stock accumulation reported in the second quarter. Williamson cited  "further pressure came from increased supply chain delays, falling exports, and further pushback on high prices from customers."

While input cost inflation moderated slightly, inflationary pressures remained elevated thanks principally to the combination of high energy prices and tariffs.

As a side note, ISM respondents saw inflation lower but almost every commodity higher in price?

In response, producers are either trying to raise selling prices to protect margins or boost productivity, hence July also saw another month of high factory gate price inflation and subdued job gains.

Williamson concludes rather ominously: “In this environment, business optimism about growth prospects slipped to the lowest since last October, underscoring the downside risks to the near-term outlook."

So - once again - choose your own adventure... is US Manufacturing stalling out (S&P Global) or surging at its fastest in four years (ISM)?

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 10:35

Coldcard Losses Near $114M As Small Bitcoin Transfers Spike

Via Decrypt.co,

Small Bitcoin holders moved coins on July 31 at a rate not seen since the collapse of FTX, according to CryptoQuant, as news spread that Coldcard hardware wallets had been generating guessable keys for five years.

Transfers of less than 1 BTC totaled 39,600 BTC (around $2.5 billion) that day, the firm's Head of Research Julio Moreno tweeted. The last comparable figure was 39,900 BTC on November 16, 2022, days after FTX failed. Daily active addresses rose from 645,000 on July 30 to almost a million on July 31, the highest since December 2024, with the jump concentrated in sending addresses rather than receiving ones.

The Bitcoin plebs had not move this amount of BTC in a day since the FTX collapse.

39.6K BTC transferred on July 31st after the coldcard hack, 39.9K BTC transferred on November 16 2022, a few days after the FTX collapse.

These are Bitcoin transfers < 1 BTC.

I like to see that… pic.twitter.com/c7Qzx7za6M

— Julio Moreno (@jjcmoreno) August 2, 2026

Some of it went to exchanges. Deposits made up of sub-10 BTC transfers hit 7,300 BTC ($459 million) on July 31, the most since February 6, CryptoQuant said. Moreno linked the move to the Coldcard breach, saying people appeared to be shifting holdings "looking for safety," while noting the connection was not certain.

Notably, Bitcoin's price barely moved amid the wave of exchange deposits, suggesting that users were moving their coins to secure them rather than sell. Bitcoin is currently trading at $62,724, down 0.7% over the past day, per CoinGecko data.

The ColdCard exploit

The Coldcard flaw dates to a March 2021 firmware build error that left seed phrases drawn from far too small a pool. Galaxy Research logged three waves of thefts by Saturday, totaling 1,367 BTC across 4,585 addresses, up from $38 million when the flaw was disclosed and $70 million when Binance founder Changpeng Zhao warned holders.

A fourth is likely under way. Galaxy Research's Alex Thorn flagged sweeps across 15 consecutive blocks on Monday, running at roughly 45 times the normal rate, and after correcting a set that had wrongly included multisig addresses put the wave at 709 addresses and 448.73 BTC ($28 million). That would take the running total to about 1,816 BTC, near $114 million. Thorn added a caveat that no victim has yet confirmed the fourth wave, which rests on pattern matching.

🚨 LIKELY 4TH ORGANIZED WAVE COLDCARD ATTACK OCCURRING RIGHT NOW

THERE ARE STILL SIMILAR TXS IN THE MEMPOOL WAITING TO BE CONFIRMED AND THE PREVIOUSLY-CONFIRMED TXS SIGNAL RBF OPT-IN, CHECK YOUR FUNDS AND YOU MAY BE ABLE TO RBF YOUR WAY OUT OF THIS

pattern identified:
blocks…

— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) August 3, 2026

Some sweeps were still sitting unconfirmed in the mempool and had opted into replace-by-fee, he said, meaning holders who act quickly and pay a high fee may be able to outbid the attacker. None of the addresses hit in the first three waves were multisig.

'A wake-up call'

Kraken chief security officer Nick Percoco called the incident a "wake-up call for the entire hardware wallet industry." ColdCard’s Mk4, Mk5 and Q ship with certified secure elements, he noted, and their seeds still came out around 72 bits, because the certification covered the component while nobody verified which code path actually ran.

https://t.co/cIjpnVnMDM

— Nick Percoco (@c7five) August 2, 2026

Percoco wants independent lab validation of entropy sources, bound to specific firmware versions and listed in a public registry, as payment terminals already require. He added that Coinkite's hotfix now fails the build unless the correct generator is linked in, a control he said took about 48 hours to write once the company knew what to look for.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 10:20

Key Events This Week: Jobs, ISMs, Fed Speakers And More Earnings On Deck

The week ahead will be dominated by the US labor market, with the JOLTS report tomorrow, the ADP employment survey on Wednesday, and building up to Friday’s July employment report. Beyond the US, investors will be watching Swiss inflation today, Swedish inflation on Thursday, German activity data throughout the week (culminating in trade and industrial production figures on Friday), Chinese PMI releases on Wednesday ahead of trade data on Friday, and Japanese wage data and BoJ communications on Wednesday before household spending figures on Friday. Meanwhile, earnings season remains in full swing.

Looking at the US and then the rest of the world in more detail, attention will center on whether incoming data reinforce the view that the US labor market remains resilient. DB's economists expect Friday’s July payrolls report to show employment growth of +65k, modestly above June’s +57k reading, while private payrolls are also expected to rise by +65k after +49k previously. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 4.2%, although risks are skewed towards a rounding up to 4.3% if labor force participation rebounds after last month’s sharp decline. Average hourly earnings are expected to increase by +0.3% month-on-month, unchanged from June, while average hours worked are forecast to hold at 34.3 hours. If realized, those outcomes would leave economists’ payroll proxy for nominal income growth unchanged at 4.4% year-on-year.

Before Friday’s report, several labor market indicators will help shape expectations. The JOLTS report (tomorrow) and the ADP employment survey (Wednesday) will be closely watched, with economists expecting ADP employment growth of +65k after +98k previously. Activity indicators will also feature prominently. The ISM manufacturing index (today) is expected to improve to 53.9 from 53.3, while the ISM services index (Wednesday) is forecast at 54.5, little changed from June’s 54.0. Productivity data (Thursday) should provide another read on underlying economic momentum, with our economists forecasting Q2 nonfarm productivity growth of +3.0% and unit labour costs rising by +0.5%.

The policy backdrop remains important. The Fed left rates unchanged last week, but three officials dissented in favor of a hike, highlighting continuing concerns about inflation. Investors will therefore pay close attention to remarks from Governor Cook (Wednesday), as well as speeches from Schmid (Tuesday), Musalem (Thursday) and Barkin (Friday), for any indication of how officials are interpreting the latest data. Our economists continue to expect two further 25bp rate increases this year, in September and December.

Outside the US, Europe’s focus will be split between inflation and activity data. Switzerland releases July CPI today, while Sweden follows with its July inflation report on Thursday. Germany will publish a series of key June indicators throughout the week, including retail sales (today), factory orders (Thursday), and trade and industrial production figures (Friday). Elsewhere, France releases Q2 wage data on Thursday, while euro area producer prices (Wednesday) and retail sales (Thursday) are also upcoming.

In Asia, after China’s private PMI surveys began with manufacturing data today, this continues with services on Wednesday, before attention turns to July trade figures and foreign reserves on Friday. In Japan, investors will monitor labour cash earnings (Wednesday) and household spending (Friday) for evidence on domestic demand and wage momentum. The Bank of Japan will also publish the minutes of its June meeting on Wednesday.

Corporate earnings remain another major theme. In the US, reports are due from Palantir (today), SpaceX, AMD, Caterpillar, McDonald’s and Toyota (tomorrow), before attention shifts to Eli Lilly, Walt Disney and Uber (Wednesday).

Source: Earnings Whispers

European highlights include Novo Nordisk and Siemens Energy (Wednesday), followed by Siemens and Rheinmetall (Thursday), while Japan’s reporting calendar includes SoftBank and Nintendo (Thursday).

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday August 3

• Data: US July ISM index, total vehicle sales, June construction spending, Germany June retail sales, Italy July new car registrations, budget balance, Switzerland July CPI, China July RatingDog manufacturing PMI
• Earnings: Palantir, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Vertex, Marriott

Tuesday August 4

• Data: US June trade balance, factory orders, JOLTS report, Japan July monetary base, France June budget balance YTD, Italy June retail sales, Canada June international merchandise trade, July manufacturing PMI
• Earnings: SpaceX, AMD, Caterpillar, HSBC, Merck & Co, Toyota, Arista Networks, Amgen, McDonald's, Gilead Sciences, Booking, Pfizer, BP, Spotify, Cummins, Marathon Petroleum, Emerson Electric, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, TransDigm, Apollo, Energy Transfer, Bayer

Wednesday August 5

• Data: US July ADP report, ISM services, UK July new car registrations, official reserves changes, Japan June labor cash earnings, France June industrial production, Italy July services PMI, Eurozone June PPI, China July RatingDog services PMI, New Zealand Q2 labour force survey
• Central banks: BoJ minutes of the June meeting, Fed’s Cook speaks
• Earnings: Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, Sandisk, Walt Disney, Shopify, Siemens Energy, Uber, AppLovin, CVS Health, McKesson, Infineon, MercadoLibre, Phillips 66, Glencore, DoorDash, Honeywell Aerospace, Occidental Petroleum, Medline, eBay, Block, Axon, Sandoz, Kraft Heinz, GLOBALFOUNDRIES, Fresenius, Global Payments, Vonovia, Figma

Thursday August 6

• Data: US Q2 nonfarm productivity, unit labor costs, June wholesale trade sales, initial jobless claims, UK July construction PMI, Germany June factory orders, July construction PMI, France Q2 wages, Italy June industrial production, Eurozone June retail sales, Canada July services PMI, Sweden July CPI
• Central banks: ECB’s economic bulletin, Fed’s Musalem speaks
• Earnings: Siemens, SoftBank, DBS, Deutsche Telekom, ConocoPhillips, Zurich Insurance Group, Howmet Aerospace, Constellation Energy, Cloudflare, Datadog, Airbnb, Generali, Merck KGaA, Warner Bros Discovery, Nintendo, Rheinmetall, Cheniere Energy, Swiss Re, Diageo, Commerzbank

Friday August 7

• Data: US July jobs report, NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations, June consumer credit, Japan June household spending, leading index, coincident index, Germany June trade balance, industrial production, France June current account balance, trade balance, Canada July labour force survey, China July foreign reserves, trade balance
• Central banks: Fed’s Barkin speaks
• Earnings: Allianz, Munich Re, Vistra, Take-Two Interactive Software, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena

* * * 

Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman notes that the key economic data release this week is the employment report on Friday. There are several speaking engagements with Fed officials this week, including events with Governors Cook and Bowman.

Monday, August 3 

• 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, July final (consensus 53.8, last 53.8)
• 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, July (GS 54.3, consensus 53.9, last 53.3):We estimate that the ISM manufacturing index increased 1.0pt to 54.3 in July, reflecting a sharp improvement in regional manufacturing surveys—our manufacturing survey tracker increased by 1.7pt to 56.7 in July—that is partly offset by a headwind from residual seasonality.
• 10:00 AM Construction spending, June (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.1%)
• 05:00 PM Lightweight motor vehicle sales, July (GS 16.8mn, consensus 16.3mn, last 16.5mn)

Tuesday, August 4 

• 08:30 AM Trade balance, June (GS -$73.0bn, consensus -$73.0bn, last -$77.6bn)
• 10:00 AM Factory orders, June (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last -1.3%)
• 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, June (GS 7,300k, consensus 7,501k, last 7,594k): We estimate that JOLTS job openings declined to 7.3mn in June based on the signal from online measures of job postings from Indeed and LinkUp.
• 08:15 PM Kansas City Fed President Schmid (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid will speak on monetary policy and the agricultural economy at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Agricultural Economic Summit. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On July 16, Schmid said that “though [the June CPI] data showed an encouraging deceleration, it would be premature to put too much weight on a single data point.” He also explained that he is “uncomfortable ever assuming that a burst of inflation is likely to be temporary.”

Wednesday, August 5

• 08:15 AM ADP employment change, July (GS +65k, consensus +68k, last +98k)
• 09:45 AM S&P Global US services PMI, July final (consensus 53.6, last 53.6)
• 10:00 AM ISM services index, July (GS 55.0, consensus 54.5, last 54.0): We estimate that the ISM services index increased by 1.0pt to 55.0 in July, reflecting the increase in our non-manufacturing survey tracker (+1.5pt to 54.4).
• 04:05 PM Fed Governor Cook speaks: Fed Governor Lisa Cook will discuss the economic outlook at the Anchorage Economic Development Corporation 2026 Economic Luncheon. Speech text is expected. On July 15, Cook noted that “the risks from high inflation concern me more at this time,” adding that “rising core goods prices underscore the fact that the recent acceleration in inflation is not only an energy price story.”
• 08:35 PM San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC non-voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will deliver keynote remarks at the Economic and Social Research Institute International Conference in Tokyo.

Thursday, August 6 

• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended August 1 (GS 205k, consensus 202k, last 197k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended July 25 (consensus 1,783k, last 1,782k); 
• 08:30 AM Nonfarm productivity, Q2 preliminary (GS +0.7%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.3%); Unit labor costs, Q2 preliminary (GS +2.1%, consensus +2.2%, last +1.8%)
• 10:00 AM Wholesale inventories, June final (last +0.3%)
• 05:30 PM St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem (FOMC non-voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will deliver a speech and participate in a moderated discussion at the Center for Public Policy Debate in São Paolo. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On July 31, Musalem said that he has “expressed a preference” for raising rates at the July FOMC meeting given that “there definitely are very large and meaning supply shocks playing out in the global and US economy…and persistent demand pressures in the economy.” He further noted that “earlier, incremental, gradual interest-rate action is preferable, less costly, and less disruptive than potentially later, larger, and abrupt actions.”

Friday, August 7 

• 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, July (GS +75k, consensus +85k, last +57k); Private payroll employment, July (GS +70k, consensus +83k, last +49k); Average hourly earnings (MoM), July (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); Labor force participation rate, July (GS 61.7%, consensus 61.6%, last 61.5%); Unemployment rate, July (GS 4.3%, consensus 4.2%, last 4.2%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 75k in July, reflecting a middling signal from alternative data. On the positive side, we expect a small incremental boost from World Cup-related hiring, which did not begin to unwind until shortly after the July reference period. We expect this boost to show up in industries such as leisure and hospitality. Additionally, we expect a modest 5k increase in government payrolls, reflecting the stabilization in government job openings. On the negative side, July payrolls have missed consensus expectations in recent years and have been coupled with large negative revisions to job growth in prior  months. We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-over-month in July, reflecting neutral calendar effects. We estimate that the unemployment rate rebounded 0.1pp to 4.3% in July, reflecting a stabilization in continuing claims but potential  upward pressure from the reversal of June’s large decline in participation that applied modest downward pressure on the unemployment rate via compositional effects (i.e., the June decline in participation was concentrated on cohorts that have unemployment rates that are slightly higher than the national average).
• 10:00 AM Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will participate in a fireside chat on the economy, leadership, and the evolving role of the Federal Reserve with the National Association for Business Economics. Q&A is expected. On July 31, Barkin said that it was “a close call” on whether interest rates are high enough.

Saturday, August 8 

12:45 PM Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman speaks: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will speak in a virtual fireside chat for the 2026 CEO and Senior Management Summit and Annual Meeting. Q&A is expected.

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 09:49

Saylor's Strategy Shores Up Capital Structure With More Bitcoin, Stock Sales

Michael Saylor’s Strategy Inc. is plowing ahead with its pivot from relentlessly buying Bitcoin to focusing on shoring up its capital structure by raising its reserve via sales of the token and its own shares.

The company that grew to prominence with its years-long Bitcoin-accumulation tactic on Monday announced that it had last week completed a roughly $105 million sale of the digital asset, offloaded three million shares worth $291 million and repurchased some $81 million of of its STRC preferred shares, which are trading at a discount. Some of its common-stock sale went toward increasing its dollar-based reserve pool to $4 billion, while the the rest was used to repurchase the preferreds, according to to a filing.

Strategy increased its USD Reserve by $250M and repurchased $81M of $STRC. This increased USD Duration by 57 days to 2.3 years and tightened STRC’s BTC Credit by 5 bps. As of 8/2/26, we hold ₿842,138 in our BTC Reserve and $4.0B in our USD Reserve. $MSTR https://t.co/t7bGZJ8Q3o

— Michael Saylor (@saylor) August 3, 2026

At the end of June, Strategy announced an overhaul of its financing model, which had for years underpinned its Bitcoin-buying efforts. The shift gave management broader flexibility to sell Bitcoin, repurchase securities and preserve liquidity.

But starting a couple months ago QTR's Fringe Finance argued that the most important change in Strategy’s new bitcoin framework wasn’t the amount of bitcoin it was selling. It was the fact that the company had become willing to sell at all.

At the time, many investors dismissed that concern because initial sales were relatively small compared to Strategy’s massive treasury. My point then wasn’t about the few thousand bitcoin that had already been sold. It was about the more than 846,000 bitcoin that remained on the balance sheet. Once management demonstrated a willingness to monetize that treasury, the entire investment story changed.

Investors no longer had to ask whether Strategy could become a seller. They now had to ask when, why, and how often it would sell. This despite the fact that, for years, Strategy cultivated the image that its Bitcoin treasury was effectively untouchable.

The latest filing from Strategy this morning shows that over past week, Strategy sold another 1,637 bitcoin, reducing its holdings to 842,138 BTC. Once again, the amount isn’t enormous in the context of the company’s overall position, and the market has absorbed these sales without any obvious disruption. But that’s beside the point.

The notion that Strategy would be only a limited or occasional seller is fading quickly. The company is now selling bitcoin on a consistent basis. It has sold over 5,000 BTC over the last couple months, approaching 1% of its total holdings. In a market where they hold about 4% of the total supply, it’s not totally immaterial.

Regardless, it is no longer accurate to describe Strategy as a perpetual buyer that won’t sell, or might sell in extraordinary circumstances. Strategy is now a bitcoin seller, period. As Zero Hedge pointed out this morning, Strategy has sold BTC every month since June.

MSTR selling BTC every month since June https://t.co/ODBzViAzhY pic.twitter.com/0q33yUMlne

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 3, 2026

That represents an extraordinary reversal from the narrative management spent years constructing. Michael Saylor repeatedly portrayed bitcoin as an asset to accumulate indefinitely, while CEO Phong Le encouraged investors to judge the company based on Bitcoin Yield and bitcoin per share accretion. The entire premise was that Strategy would continue finding ways to acquire more bitcoin while avoiding selling existing holdings. That framework differentiated Strategy from virtually every other corporate bitcoin holder.

Today, that distinction has disappeared. Whether the weekly sales amount to 1,000 bitcoin or 10,000 bitcoin is almost secondary if you ask me. The important fact is that management has formally crossed a line investors were repeatedly told it never intended to cross. Psychology as it relates to Saylor, who had previously sold hundreds of millions of dollars in MSTR stock before it became the red-headed stepchild to STRC, will now always be tainted.

And ask many “maxis”: Saylor’s not doing any favors for bitcoin’s credibility, either. Just this weekend, he was posting an image of Strategy’s bitcoin buys with the caption “Bitcoin Drive engaged.” Come Monday morning, we got the notification of the sales.

Strategy spent years aggressively buying bitcoin at substantially higher prices than where it now trades. After insisting only months ago that it expected to remain a net buyer every quarter, the company is now selling bitcoin around $62,000. In practical terms, it seems like it’s buying the highs and selling the lows right now.

Management may argue there are sound capital allocation reasons for doing so, but investors shouldn’t lose sight of what they’re watching unfold. The company spent years telling shareholders bitcoin was effectively untouchable, only to begin monetizing those same holdings after prices declined from recent highs.

Management made clear that bitcoin is now being sold to raise dollars while simultaneously supporting its preferred stock. Presumably the objective is to strengthen confidence in the preferred securities, improve liquidity, and attract additional buyers into that part of the capital structure while waiting for Bitcoin to rebound.

From a corporate finance perspective, management may have perfectly rational reasons for making that decision. But it also confirms something much larger. Bitcoin is no longer functioning solely as a long-term treasury reserve. It has become a source of working capital used to support other pieces of Strategy’s increasingly complex capital structure.

In other words, Strategy is suffering from some mission-creep.

Perhaps the most important point is that all of this is happening while bitcoin has been relatively stable over the past several weeks. This isn’t occurring during a market panic or liquidity crisis. Bitcoin has largely traded sideways.

If Strategy is already comfortable selling bitcoin under relatively benign conditions, investors should naturally ask what happens if the market experiences a genuine drawdown. What happens if bitcoin falls another 20%? What happens if it falls 50%?

Suddenly the possibility of much larger sales becomes far more relevant because the company has already demonstrated that bitcoin is no longer off limits. Once that psychological barrier disappears, markets begin pricing not only what management is doing today, but what it could be forced or willing to do tomorrow.

I’ve written for years that the market has an uncanny ability to expose leverage. It rarely happens when everything is going well. It happens when liquidity tightens, volatility rises, and investors begin questioning assumptions that previously seemed unquestionable.

🔥 50% OFF FOR LIFE: Using this coupon entitles you to 50% off an annual subscription to Fringe Finance for life: Get 50% off forever

Strategy now sits at the center of a capital structure built on top of one of the world’s most volatile major assets. At the same time, much of today’s broader market remains characterized by aggressive leverage, financial engineering, and extraordinary optimism. None of that guarantees Strategy faces imminent problems. It doesn’t. But history suggests markets eventually test structures like this, and when they do, investors suddenly begin caring about risks that seemed irrelevant during the good times.

When I first wrote about this shift in early July, I argued that the significance wasn’t the 3,588 bitcoin Strategy had sold. It was the more than 846,000 bitcoin investors now knew could eventually become a source of liquidity. Every additional weekly filing reinforces that thesis. The individual transactions remain relatively modest, but together they establish a pattern that is becoming increasingly difficult to dismiss.

Strategy is no longer simply a buyer that occasionally sells under unusual circumstances. Selling bitcoin appears to have become part of its operating playbook.

I think my continued skepticism towards Saylor and Strategy is warranted. With that said, Strategy’s shift in business strategy was the key topic in a lengthy hourlong debate I had last month with my friend, bitcoin bull, and Strategy supporter Larry Lepard. So if you’re looking for both sides of this story and not just my unbridled skepticism, that’s a great debate to listen to.

--

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author. I cannot guarantee the accuracy of all facts and figures included in this article though I made my best effort to get them right. I have been wrong before and will be wrong again, and encourage you to always double check, do your own research and speak to a licensed financial professional.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions.

As of May 20, 2026 I am attempting to no longer actively trade (read my story here). My investing/saving is mostly done by recurring contributions mostly to sector ETFs and a few select equities, trusted third parties who oversee my accounts, and advisors. Such advisors or funds, through individual equities, options, index funds, mutual funds, ETFs, or other securities, may have positions in, exposure to, or holdings of names mentioned herein that I know nothing about. Basically, via index funds, ETFs and individual equities it is possible I could own, have exposure to, or not own anything at any point. As of the same date, May 20, 2026, in an attempt to lead a healthier lifestyle, I’ve also excluded myself from fantasy sports, sports betting, online and in-person casinos and prediction markets.

And all positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 09:40

"That Was The Era Of The Kospi Mania": Korean Retail Traders Vow Not To Buy After Historic Rout

By Youkyung Lee, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and strategist

South Korea’s retail traders have long built a reputation for embracing risk. Yet July’s punishing reversal in the Kospi has rattled even this battle-hardened cohort, exposing the limits of their tolerance for volatility.

Some, like Kim Han-kyung, a Seoul resident in her late 30s, have resolved never to invest again, while others are comparing the $3.9 trillion market to a casino. Retail investors sold a record amount of Kospi shares on Friday despite a stunning 18% rebound. The gauge still capped a 22% loss for the month, the steepest since the global financial crisis.

Signs of frustration are everywhere on social media, with much of the blame being directed at the government. Encouraged by President Lee Jae Myung’s stock-market reform drive as well as the debut of single-stock leveraged ETFs offering the prospect of amplified gains, mom-and-pop traders piled about 78 trillion won ($54.2 billion) into Kospi shares over May and June, only to be sucker-punched by the index’s wild swings in July.

“That was the era of the Kospi mania,” said Kim, who started investing in Korean stocks for the first time in early May. “I got completely swept up in the frenzy. Now, I’m honestly scared. I’ve engraved two rules in my mind now. First: don’t invest in the Korean stock market. Second: follow the first rule.”

Trading in Kospi stocks was halted four times during the month, a record run for circuit-breaker suspensions, a tool rarely used before this year.

Ironically, the ETFs, introduced in late May to broaden investment opportunities for retail traders and stem outflows into similar products abroad, have become a lightning rod for criticism and blamed for amplifying volatility.

“The government put fuel into the fire with those leveraged ETFs,” said 40-year-old Lee Jung-min, who took a 50 million won loan with his apartment as a collateral to trade stocks. “I think it’s wrong how they turned the stock market into a casino.”

The dramatic unraveling in July followed months of optimism that had built around Korean equities. The market, home to two of the world’s memory chipmakers Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc., remains one of the biggest beneficiaries of the AI frenzy. The two stocks together make up more than 50% of the Kospi.

Samsung’s shares, which slumped 21% in July, are still up more than four times since the start of 2025. SK Hynix’s stock lost 35% but is up nearly 10 times in that period. The Kospi remains among the world’s best performers for 2026 despite the pullback. 

“Such volatility level still shows the market is not functioning normally,” said Kim Dong Woo, a 33-year-old who has been trading stocks for more than seven years.  

That said, it’s hard to argue that retail investors were unaware of the risks. Surging volatility had been a key feature of the Korean market, but the fear of missing out still drew many of them into concentrated bets on AI-linked heavyweights and margin-financed stock purchases.

“It’s a textbook example of what happens when a crowded trade meets leverage,” said Lale Akoner, global market analyst at eToro Group Ltd. in London. “Deleveraging is unlikely to be resolved in a matter of days, so investors should expect further sharp swings in technology and semiconductor stocks over the coming months,” she said, adding however that “this should not be mistaken for a wholesale collapse in the AI investment case.”

For their part, authorities have sprung into action. They temporarily halted new listings of single-stock leveraged ETFs in mid-July, and last week pledged additional measures to stabilize the stock market and curb retail access to such products. 

But many retail investors and market participants say the steps came too late. “The current environment presents a significant challenge” for the government, said Francis Tan, Asia chief strategist at Indosuez Wealth Management in Singapore.

Looking ahead, the AI boom that fueled Korea’s rally remains intact. Yet for many, July served as a lesson that the same forces capable of delivering outsized gains can also unravel swiftly. Rebuilding confidence among them may take longer than it does for the market to recoup losses.

“Retail investors are furious with the government,” said Jung Eui-jung, head of the Korean Stockholders’ Alliance, which has 64,000 members. “The level of anger and criticism is at its peak.”  

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 09:20

Kamikaze Drone Slams Into Crowded Russian Black Sea Beach, Killing 3

The Russia-Ukraine war has dangerously spilled over into the Black Sea, with cargo ships, tankers, and oil and gas infrastructure being targeted by both sides. The sharp escalation in fighting across the region has also come at a cost to civilians.

Shocking video circulating on X Monday morning appears to show a Ukrainian suicide drone striking a crowded beach in the Russian Black Sea resort city of Gelendzhik.

Russian media outlet Interfax reports that three people were killed and more than a dozen injured "when a drone crashed in the village of Arkhipo-Osipovka near Gelendzhik."

The outlet continued:

"A tragedy has occurred in Gelendzhik. Three people were killed in the village of Arkhipo-Osipovka due to falling UAV debris, according to preliminary information. (...) Another 13 people, including children, were injured. They are receiving necessary medical care," Kondratyev wrote on his Max channel.

He noted that the attack targeted civilian infrastructure. Emergency and special services are working at the drone wreckage sites.

Footage:

In Gelendzhik, Russia, a drone crashed directly onto a beach with tourists.

At least 3 people were killed and 13 others injured. pic.twitter.com/UAhg7uSBPH

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) August 3, 2026

Audio from the footage appears to capture Russian air-defense forces firing on the incoming drone moments before it struck the crowded beach. It remains unclear whether civilians were deliberately targeted or whether the drone was damaged by automatic fire, causing it to deviate from its intended flight path.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 09:00