Zero Rss

Workday Soars Most On Record As Silver Lake Weighs $43 Billion Buyout

Workday shares jumped the most on record during late-afternoon trading on Thursday after a Reuters report said Silver Lake was in discussions to acquire the human-resources and financial-management software company.

According to the report, the deal would value Workday at $43 billion and rank among the largest software buyouts in history.

Here's more from the report:

Silver Lake and the human-resources and financial management software company have held discussions about a potential deal in recent months, the people said. The talks are ongoing and there is no guarantee a deal will materialize, said the sources, ‌who ⁠spoke on condition of anonymity because the discussions are confidential.

For context, Workday is a large enterprise-software company whose cloud platform helps organizations manage:

• Human resources, payroll and employee benefits
• Recruiting, workforce planning and performance
• Accounting, budgeting and financial reporting
• Procurement and expenses
• Business analytics and AI agents

Shares of Workday soared as much as 25%...

the largest one-day gain on record, with trading data dating back to 2012.

Workday, like many other software companies, suffered a vicious bear market earlier this year amid the "SaaSpocalypse" ...

... as investors feared that artificial intelligence models would erode the value of costly software products.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 15:15

"Unofficial" FBI Group Swept Up Journalists, Politicians As Russian Disinfo "Conduits" For Probing Biden-Ukraine Dealings

An FBI analytical group that reviewed confidential-source reporting about Biden family corruption in Ukraine was "unofficially formed" inside the bureau's Foreign Influence Task Force in late 2019 and did not corroborate the allegations it was assigned to assess before labeling the reporting as Russian disinformation, according to newly declassified records.

The records [Direct download link] provide a more detailed picture of an effort known as Round River, a component of a broader intelligence project called DELTA, that operated in the run-up to and through the 2020 presidential election.

An Office of the Director of National Intelligence slide deck says analysts with the FBI's Foreign Influence Task Force-Russia, or FITF-R, came together around December 2019 and used internal systems to gather "any/all derogatory information" previously reported by confidential human sources concerning "Joseph Biden corruption and other Ukraine related-topics."

The deck refers to that body of reporting as the "Ukraine Narrative," including information concerning Burisma Holdings, Hunter Biden, Burisma founder Mykola Zlochevsky and allegations of Ukrainian interference in the 2016 election. The analysts' purpose, according to the document, was to "red flag" the reporting as Russian disinformation.

But the same document states: "The Round River team did not corroborate any of the allegations of the 'Ukraine Narrative.'"

Screenshot: DELTA Project

The analysts were given "administrative accesses to all reporting" and drafted intelligence products that were later placed in confidential-source files to indicate that the reporting had been deemed Russian disinformation, the deck says.

The group "operated leading up to and through the 2020 US Presidential election."

The records add important context to earlier reporting that senior Republican and conservative figures were identified as Russian-disinformation "conduits" in connection with Round River.

A separate FBI spreadsheet shows that the terminology was broader - and in some cases more tentative - than a designation of someone as a Russian agent or knowing participant in a foreign influence effort. It records people and organizations considered for warnings that they could be caught up in a foreign influence operation, along with the FBI's position on providing such a briefing.

Among those listed as conduits are former Attorney General William Barr, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Rudolph Giuliani, Sens. Ron Johnson and Chuck Grassley, the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, Rep. Jim Jordan and former Rep. Devin Nunes.

The document also identifies several prominent names not highlighted in initial coverage: Richard Donoghue, Pete Sessions and Mick Mulvaney.

Donoghue was serving at the highest levels of the Justice Department during the period covered by the operation. Mulvaney was White House chief of staff when the group formed, and Sessions, a former congressman at the time, returned to the House in 2021. Giuliani and Sessions are among the entries marked "FBI Equities," indicating the bureau objected or had an investigative interest bearing on a proposed briefing. Most of the other conduit entries are marked "No Objection."

The spreadsheet does not show that all of those nominated were actually warned - and in fact, Joe Biden is the only entry expressly marked "Briefed." 

Funny how that worked!

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 15:00

The University Of Michigan Is Now Hiding Grades From Fragile Freshmen

Authored by Andrea Widburg via AmericanTinker.com,

In 2017, Macalester College, a pricey Midwestern college, ran an article in its glossy “Macalester Today” magazine titled “The Dog Is In.” Indeed, that was the cover story. In the article, Macalester boasted about having multiple therapy dogs roaming the campus to help students deal with homework stress—students who, as best as I could tell, had about 12 hours a week of class time, plus homework.

I was not impressed.

Little did I know, though, that worse was to come.

Nine years after Macalester boasted about its students being so fragile that they needed therapy dogs, the University of Michigan  has announced that it is hiding first-semester grades from freshmen, lest those same freshmen might be distressed if their grades didn’t meet their expectations:

The University of Michigan’s College of Literature, Science, and the Arts (LSA) will stop reporting traditional letter grades on first-semester transcripts for incoming freshmen beginning in Fall 2027, replacing them with “pass” or “no credit” designations as part of a pilot program aimed at reducing student stress and curbing a “mental health crisis”.

Students will still earn letter grades and receive instructor feedback in every course. However, those grades will remain internal, will not appear on official transcripts, and will not affect first-semester GPAs.

University officials say the policy is intended to help freshmen transition to college, support student well-being, and encourage students to take academically challenging courses without worrying that one difficult semester could permanently affect their records.

This is bat-fecal-matter crazy.

If the students aren’t given specific information about their academic progress, they cannot fix their mistakes and change their trajectory.

I had a couple of times in college and law school where I was either lazy or confused, resulting in bad grades. Maybe I was made of stronger stuff than the new freshmen, or maybe, just maybe, I lived in a time when we were less infantilized, but those bad grades didn’t cause me to have a mental collapse. Instead, I fixed the problem, either by being less lazy or by haunting my professors until I understood what I was doing wrong. Failure (well, not an actual “F” but, still, bad grades) was as important a lesson as anything the professor was actually teaching.

It would be lovely if life were just about going from success to success and pleasure to pleasure.

However, most of life is about dealing with harsh reality: The need to get good grades, a job, pay bills, deal with unpleasant people (including bosses or teachers), etc. Life is work.

Our ability to get the most out of life—to grow as a person and to be happy—comes not from gliding through the good times, but from learning when there are bad times: learning to change harmful behaviors, and learning to use reasonable optimism, not unreasoning, immature despair, as the engine powering you.

And one other thing: The grading system across academia has a profound flaw, and the way to fix it isn’t to hide information from students.

Grades should be weighted, with the grades at the beginning of the year, semester, or quarter having less value in the averaging than grades later in the quarter.

What matters isn’t where you start; it’s where you end.

If you struggle in the beginning but, through hard work, get better as you go, those early grades shouldn’t matter at all, or should matter minimally. In the same way, if you start slacking off after a fast start, that should be punished.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 14:40

Araghchi Mocks 'Fake Intelligence' Amid Skepticism Over Iranian Plot Against Trump In Turkey

US mainstream media has this week been dominated by claims that an Iranian assassination threat prompted President Donald Trump to secretly switch planes while flying out of Turkey last month, with Air Force One serving as a decoy while he flew out on a smaller military aircraft.

The details of the 'escape' from alleged danger are wild, and continue to be subject of widespread scrutiny and questioning, given the American president was actually covertly transferred into a catering container, which then ferried him to a small C-32A aircraft, according to reports in The Washington Post and The New York Times.

BBC: Donald Trump secretly switched planes when he was returning from a Nato meeting last month in order to avoid a threat to his life from Iran.

The claim was that Iranian covert forces could target Air Force One at the airport in Ankara using shoulder-fired rockets, or MANPADS, from perhaps just one kilometer away

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Thursday while speaking of the broader war and the status of the Hormuz Strait appeared to gently mock the ordeal and controversy surrounding it. He referenced "fake intelligence" in the broad comments.

Importantly the words come as some like Turkey are accusing Israel of feeding Washington 'fabricated' intelligence, which then led to the dramatic Trump plane-switching escapade.

FM Araghchi asserted that the United States has "has long miscalculated due to intelligence failures," especially when launching its war on Iran.

But that's when he could be interpreted as mocking the Air Force One drama, continuing on X: "Worse than fake news is fake intelligence."

Some analysts have questioned why at this point in the conflict, when Iranian government and armed forces have clearly survived nearly six months of everything the US military has thrown at it, Iran would even see the need to assassinate a head of state.

Such an action would only invite a much greater military response than has been seen before, and the Islamic Republic seeks to keep its current leverage over Hormuz, wanting to keep things at a low-burn headed into US midterm elections.

The Washington Post’s @DanLamothe, who broke the news of Trump’s secret plane switch via a catering truck, joins OutFront to share new reporting that the CIA had “low confidence” in Israeli intel that Trump was facing a threat from Iran: “Given the seriousness of the issue… they… pic.twitter.com/CPROjMMFhG

— Erin Burnett OutFront (@OutFrontCNN) August 13, 2026

In the meantime there are fresh reports that the US intelligence community itself is skeptical of the assassination plot claims:

US intelligence officials were skeptical of an alleged Iranian assassination threat against President Donald Trump during his trip to Turkiye for the NATO summit, which prompted a secretive plan to fly him out of the country in an alternative military aircraft.

The assassination threat was relayed by the Israeli government to the CIA, where analysts did not view the intelligence as compelling and conveyed that skepticism to Trump administration officials, Washington Post reported, quoting current and former US officials familiar with the intelligence said.

Another official called the reports of threats against Trump’s life “Israeli-derived, not US-generated, and viewed as low confidence,” Washington Post added.

However, the Secret Service is trained to take basically every threat seriously and move fast, especially while the president is traveling through foreign countries, or in potentially hostile environments. 

More and more skepticism has emerged of late across the political spectrum related to official Washington claims related to the Iran conflict...

The story of Trump secretly switching airplanes is actually a great example of how we got into the war with Iran…

“Israeli-derived, not U.S.-generated, and viewed as low confidence” by our own intelligence agencies. pic.twitter.com/zWKkWxYBat

— Joe Kent (@joekent16jan19) August 13, 2026

"As the President has said, he has faced numerous threats on his life, including ones from Iran, and every measure is taken to ensure his safety," a US official said in a statement.

"The United States Secret Service’s core mission is protecting the President, which they achieved," the statement added.

*  *  *

Meanwhile, expect some of Iran's Lego videos to drop next...

Washington Post: Trump underwent an elaborate plan to hide his flight from Turkey to the United Kingdom last month using a catering food truck amid Iran threat. pic.twitter.com/ySqAT6No94

— IRI Embassy in Armenia (@iraninyerevan) August 11, 2026 Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 14:20

Cyberattack Cripples California City's 911 System, Forces Emergency Shutdown

Via American Greatness,

A Northern California city of roughly 30,000 residents was forced to shut down its entire computer network Friday after a cyberattack knocked out its 911 system, the latest sign of how vulnerable American municipalities remain to digital assaults.

Suisun City, located about 45 miles from San Francisco, declared a state of emergency Saturday after malicious software infiltrated its network shortly before 6 p.m. Friday, the California Post reported.

“Officials shut down the entire network to stop the threat from spreading and protect evidence for a federal investigation,” the outlet reported.

City officials scrambled to prevent the outage from endangering residents, rerouting 911 calls through the Solano County dispatch center. Police and fire personnel remained active and able to respond to calls for service despite the loss of the city’s own systems.

The breach reached well beyond emergency dispatch.

City services including building permits and other municipal records were rendered inaccessible, and residents were unable to pay bills online while the network remained offline.

The Suisun City Council voted unanimously to pull the plug on the network and declare a state of emergency during a special meeting Saturday morning, an extraordinary step that underscores the severity of the threat local officials believed they were facing.

The incident lands amid heightened concern over foreign cyber threats to American infrastructure since the outbreak of the Iran war.

U.S. authorities issued an “urgent warning” in April that hackers linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps were actively working to disrupt critical American computer networks, a threat national security officials have long cautioned could extend to local governments with limited cybersecurity resources.

It remains unclear whether the Suisun City attack is connected to Iran-backed hacking operations.

Investigators are still working to determine how the malicious software breached the network and who is responsible, according to news reports.

City officials have not said when full network functionality is expected to be restored.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 14:00

Gamer Recruitment Campaign Sparks Record Air Traffic Controller Hiring: FAA

The Federal Aviation Administration reached historic hiring levels for air traffic controllers through its campaign to target gamers.

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said in an Aug. 9 post on X that the campaign “supercharged the entire hiring process to get the BEST & BRIGHTEST in faster.”

As a result, the TSA hit 94 percent of its hiring goal this year, which is the fastest the agency has reached that goal.

Those figures translate into 2,000 new controllers hired, which, as Savannah Hulsey Pointer details below for The Epoch Times, is the most ever hired in a single year. According to Duffy, those candidates made it to training faster than any class before them.

“We’re building the strongest, sharpest workforce in aviation history,” he said.

The Department of Transportation ad campaign included the slogan “It’s not a Game. It’s a Career.”

The department stated that it targeted gamers for their “unique and transferable skillset, including high cognitive functions, spatial awareness, multitasking, and strategy and problem solving.”

The FAA announced its plan to target gamers for recruitment in April, saying it could help solve the industry’s decades-long shortage of controllers.

“To reach the next generation of air traffic controllers, we need to adapt. This campaign’s innovative communication style and focus on gaming taps into a growing demographic of young adults who have many of the hard skills it takes to be a successful controller,” Duffy said at the time.

The hiring window opened on April 17, and the agency called it an opportunity to apply for “one of the most dynamic jobs in the world.”

The FAA has suffered a shortage of controllers since the 1980s. The issue was exacerbated during the COVID-19 pandemic when thousands of industry professionals retired.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, working as an air traffic controller “can be stressful because maximum concentration is required at all times.”

Another cause of strain is the fact that controllers are responsible for the safety of aircraft and passengers, and they often rotate through night and weekend shifts.

However, the typical entry-level education for a controller is an associate’s degree, with no related field work experience. The median pay for the position was more than $144,000 per year.

Staffing shortages have increased pressure on controllers, and the FAA has acknowledged that the lack of air traffic controllers has contributed to mandatory overtime and fatigue concerns.

CareerCast has repeatedly put air traffic controlling as one of the nation’s most stressful occupations, citing the responsibility for public safety, constant deadlines, and need for sustained concentration as contributing factors.

The recruitment news comes just days after the TSA welcomed David Cummins as its new administrator. The agency announced the confirmation on Aug. 7, saying, “TSA is building for the future—innovation, cutting-edge technology, and a checkpoint experience making travel smoother and more secure than ever before.”

Cummins said of his new role: “We do not have to choose between a secure checkpoint, an efficient checkpoint, or an elevated experience. In fact, our mission demands that we achieve all three at once.

“TSA will deliver on its role to secure the Golden Age of Travel.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 13:40

Tailing 30Y Auction Prices At Highest Yield In 25 Years

After yesterday's ugly 10Y auction, moments ago we got the last of the week's refunding auctions, when the Treasury sold $25BN in 30Y paper (the same paper that has seen yield shoot up in the past week, ever since Warsh's most recent FOMC meeting in which he left the long-end hang out to dry), and just like the 10Y auction before it, this one was also rather deplorable.

Pricing at a high yield of 5.216%, the auction tailed the When Issued 5.212% by 0.4bps...

... but more importantly, it priced at the highest yield since 2001 some 25 years ago.

The bid to cover was 2.392, down from 2.444 in July and below the recent average of 2.429. 

The internals were more palatable: Indirects slumped from 77.7% in July - one of the highest on record - to 66.9%, which was just below the six-auction average of 67.0%.

And with Directs loading up, and taking down 21.6% of the auction, which also was just below the recent average of 22.5%, Dealers were left with 11.5%, 150bps higher than July, and a bit over the average of 10.6%. 

Overall, this was a weak auction if hardly catastrophic, and while demand was there, the more ominous question is where do yields go from here, and how much higher can the yield on the long-end keep rising before something finally breaks.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 13:35

Supreme Court Sets November Arguments In Religious Liberty, Prison Medical Care, And Agency Power Cases

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

The Supreme Court on Aug. 11 scheduled oral arguments for November in three high-stakes cases involving a religious liberty challenge to Colorado's preschool funding rules, a lawsuit over inadequate prison medical care, and a separation of powers dispute involving Labor Department penalties.

The Supreme Court in Washington on July 13, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

The court said in a new scheduling notice that on Nov. 3 it will hear St. Mary Catholic Parish v. Roy, which is about whether Colorado may decline to fund Catholic preschools.

The case could help to redefine how states reconcile anti-discrimination laws with religious freedom.

Colorado's universal preschool program pays for 15 hours of free preschool per week at public or private providers. To participate, preschools must offer "equal opportunity" to sign up regardless of religious affiliation, sexual orientation, gender identity, income level, or disability.

The state permits exemptions for other groups such as low-income or disabled children but has blocked Archdiocese of Denver preschools because they require families to support Catholic teachings on sex and gender.

The Supreme Court will look at the case in the light of two of its precedents, Employment Division v. Smith (1990), and Carson v. Makin (2022).

The petitioners had asked the Supreme Court to overrule Smith, but in agreeing to hear the case, it specifically declined to take up that question. Instead, the justices indicated that they will consider if the application of Smith should be narrowed.

Smith held that neutral, generally applicable laws do not violate the First Amendment's Free Exercise Clause even if they burden religious practice, and that religious objectors are not entitled to exemptions from such laws. Carson held that a state violates the Free Exercise Clause when it excludes religious schools from an otherwise generally available public benefit - such as tuition aid - solely because of their religious character. In that case, the Supreme Court struck down a Maine law that excluded families from a student aid program if they chose to send their children to religious schools.

In the case at hand, lower courts upheld the exclusion, citing Smith, holding that the rules were neutral and generally applicable. The justices limited review to two questions: how to apply Smith's general applicability test when secular exemptions exist, and whether Carson requires stricter scrutiny only for explicit religious exclusions.

The high court said that it will hear U.S. Department of Labor v. Sun Valley Orchards LLC on Nov. 10. The case concerns whether the federal agency has authority to conduct its own administrative hearings to collect money from employers accused of violating the terms of the seasonal farm worker visa program.

The justices agreed to review a U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit ruling that sided with a New Jersey produce farm. The farm was fined more than $500,000 by an in-house Labor Department tribunal for alleged violations of the rules for the H-2A visa program for temporary foreign farm labor. The appeals court held that the agency's process was unconstitutional, relying primarily on constitutional separation of powers principles that limit the ability of agencies to adjudicate private rights and impose monetary penalties without going to federal court.

In its ruling, the Third Circuit also cited Securities and Exchange Commission v. Jarkesy (2024), which held that the SEC's in-house enforcement of securities fraud laws infringed the defendants' Seventh Amendment right to a jury trial.

The case will give the Supreme Court another opportunity to address the reach of Jarkesy and decide how far federal agencies may go in handling enforcement cases that seek monetary penalties.

The justices indicated they will hear Nielsen v. Watanabe on Nov. 9, a case testing whether a federal inmate can sue prison staff for inadequate medical care under the Bivens doctrine.

The Supreme Court held in Bivens v. Six Unknown Federal Narcotics Agents (1971) that individuals may sue government officials for violations of their constitutional rights.

In Carlson v. Green (1980), the high court extended Bivens to an Eighth Amendment claim of deliberate indifference to medical needs where prison officials failed to deal with an inmate's acute asthma attack and exacerbated it, leading to his death on-site within hours. The Eighth Amendment bans cruel and unusual punishment.

Since the 1980 ruling, the court has said it is up to Congress, not the courts, to create damages remedies.

Kekai Watanabe was injured in a gang riot in 2021 at a federal detention center in Honolulu, Hawaii. He alleges a nurse declined to send him to a hospital and instead provided him only with over-the-counter medication. He later received a diagnosis of a fractured tailbone and bone chips.

Watanabe sued for $3 million under Bivens, alleging the prison authorities were deliberately indifferent to his serious medical needs and that this violated the Eighth Amendment.

A federal district court threw out the lawsuit, ruling it presented a "new context" different from Carlson. The court cited Watanabe's access to the Bureau of Prisons' administrative grievance process and the non-life-threatening nature of his injury. A divided U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit reversed, finding the claim closely tracked Carlson.

The Supreme Court is currently in recess for the summer. It will resume hearing oral arguments on the first Monday in October.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 13:20

Running The Hormuz Gauntlet: Recruitment Ad Offers Tanker Crews Double Pay To Brave Drone Strikes

Flexport founder and CEO Ryan Petersen posted on X what appears to be a recruitment ad from Singapore-based maritime crewing agency Singhai Marine Services, offering a rare look at the pay and "transit" bonuses available to tanker crews transiting the highly contested Strait of Hormuz.

Singhai Marine is recruiting a full crew to operate a VLCC, or very large crude carrier, through the Strait of Hormuz on a Dubai-Oman route. The one-month contract offers salaries ranging from $1,600 for ordinary seamen to $16,000 for the captain.

The offer also includes:

• A separate high-risk allowance
• A "Hormuz transit bonus" equal to one additional month's full salary
• Tanker experience preferred, with applicants required to accept high-risk deployment

If authentic, the recruitment ad suggests ship operators are having difficulty staffing tankers for Hormuz voyages amid the constant threat of Iranian drone and missile attacks, forcing them to offer substantial hazard bonus.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 13:00

Diesel Crack Spread Explodes To Record As Wall Street Warns Of Refined-Products "Perfect Storm"

Wall Street Warns About "Perfect Storm" Diesel Crunch: 

• Goldman's Daan Struyven Shows Global Diesel Exports Crashing
• Citi's Anthony Yuen Warns: Global Diesel Inventories "Below 5YR Minimum"
• BofA's Francisco Blanch Warns: "Diesel's Perfect Summer Storm" Unfolding 
• Jefferies' Sam Burwell Warns: Hormuz Shock "Manifesting Itself In Cracks, Not Crude" 

Brent crude remains hostage to daily geopolitical developments in the Gulf region more than five months into the conflict, with muted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz (read the latest US-Iran wrap) constraining tanker flows and driving refined-product markets to new, dire extremes as they become the focal point of the energy crisis.

Brent briefly fell below $80 a barrel last week as prospects improved for an Iran-Oman deal to reopen the maritime chokepoint, before rebounding toward $90 as negotiations stalled this week.

Hormuz traffic has stabilized at about 10 crossings a day, down from 30 to 40 before the latest escalation. Liquids flows are averaging roughly 4 million barrels a day, well below public estimates of 9 million, according to HSBC analysts.

We earlier cited Jefferies analyst Sam Burwell, who warned clients:

"What this all shows is that global oil-market tightness is manifesting itself in cracks, not crude, at least for now. Wide cracks suggest refining runs should remain strong, however, which is positive for crude. 

By lunchtime Thursday, the front-month US diesel crack spread (HOCL1 on the Terminal) had exceeded the $97 level reached in mid-March, when the US-Iran conflict was just three weeks old, and was closing in on $100. That signals extreme tightness in diesel.

Diesel crack spread hits record high, just shy of $100 https://t.co/pxNKK1OUeR pic.twitter.com/uAciv62yPk

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 13, 2026

Francisco Blanch, head of commodities at Bank of America, warned clients in a note earlier titled "Diesel's Perfect Summer Storm" that the industrial fuel is "materially disrupted in 3 of 4 major regions" around the world.

As we recently warned (see report: The crude reality of oil markets), supply disruptions are amplifying the squeeze on petroleum markets.

Three of the world's four major refining hubs remain impaired for one reason or another.

First, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and adjacent military activity has reduced Middle East fuel exports, with the recent Houthi strike on Saudi Arabia's Jazan refinery being the latest example.

Second, record Russian refining disruptions following Ukrainian strikes have removed significant volumes from the global diesel pool. 

Third, fearful of potential domestic shortages, China has yet to restart petroleum product exports to the Asia region. As such, Europe has increasingly relied on record US exports to fill the gap.

Yet those flows are drawing down already tight US inventories, the only major hub open for business, creating a global competition for fuel that is pushing diesel cracks back toward record seasonal highs.

Beyond Ukraine drone-striking Russian energy assets, Moscow has decided to ban diesel exports; yet again, more evidence of dwindling global supplies: 

• Russia Bans Diesel Exports, Assuring Even Higher Prices

One month later, Diesel spreads hit all time high https://t.co/3GROS40xsr

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 13, 2026

Separately, Anthony Yuen, managing director and head of energy strategy at Citi Research, warned clients that global observed diesel inventories are "below the five-year minimum and not substantially lower than this," adding, "The last time inventories were at a similar level was in 2022, when gasoil cracks globally were about $20/bbl lower than currently observed, and they were meaningfully lower in 2018."

Goldman's commodities expert Daan Struyven told clients earlier today:

Since the Iran war began, we have viewed the Hormuz shock as more disruptive for refined products, especially diesel, than for crude.

Near-record prompt diesel margins have already triggered a strong supply response from refiners with spare capacity, including higher utilization and a shift in yields toward diesel. As a result, outright diesel shortages still look unlikely this year.

Struyven showed that global diesel exports are crashing.

Kpler data suggest that Persian Gulf flows are down 80% year over year for diesel, versus 48% for crude.

BofA's Blanch noted, "In short, absent a meaningful supply recovery, the diesel market appears poised to stay tight, volatile, and expensive well into next year."

The clearest signal of how far the energy crisis has spread, even as Brent and WTI remain relatively calm, is now visible in refined-product markets, particularly diesel, where the blowout in crack spreads signals a severe global supply squeeze.

Hormuz Shock "Manifesting Itself In Cracks, Not Crude," Jefferies Says

Brent crude futures held near recent highs of $90 a barrel before fading to around $87 early Thursday morning, as traders awaited progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Stalled US-Iran negotiations and tightening global fuel supplies continued to support prices and concern some top energy experts, who warn of a looming supply shock. 

US-Iran talks remain deadlocked to end the week as the Trump administration maintains its blockade of Iranian ports and Tehran demands compensation for war-related damage. Pakistan, which has served as a mediator, said the broader peace talks had stalled.

Late Wednesday, President Trump wrote in a Truth Social post that the USA has "total control" over the Strait of Hormuz and "I think we will keep it." It's also yet more confirmation that he's opting for economic siege warfare while the US military campaign is on hold. 

Polymarket odds for "US-Iran 60-day negotiation period extended?" currently stand at around 25%, down from 80% one week ago.

//--> //--> US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
Yes 25% · No 76%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

So far, Brent crude is headed for a weekly advance of nearly 5% as a near-term resolution to the US-Iran conflict remains murky and Ukrainian and Russian attacks on energy infrastructure tighten oil and, more critically, diesel markets.

Last week, our note titled "Winter Is Coming" for Europe outlined how the energy-stricken continent faces a twin diesel and natural gas crunch.

Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, told Bloomberg TV early last week that the global diesel-supply crunch is "what keeps her up at night."

Saxo Markets strategist Charu Chanana said volatility will remain elevated until Hormuz reopens and the outlook for production becomes clearer.

Making matters worse, the International Energy Agency released a report on Wednesday that forecast a 1.8 million-barrel-a-day deficit this quarter, more than double its previous estimate. The agency also warned that elevated prices are beginning to crush demand and projected the widest annual supply shortfall in five years.

Offsetting higher prices was bearish US inventory data showing that crude stockpiles surged by 17.4 million barrels last week, the largest increase since January 2023, as exports weakened and imports from Saudi Arabia and Venezuela increased.

Jefferies analyst Sam Burwell, who specializes in oil, gas and energy infrastructure equities, wrote in a note Wednesday that showed oil-market extremes in three charts:

Three Pictures Worth 1,900 Characters - Oil Market Extremes

We return from an earnings hiatus (and step outside Canada) to show some current extremes in global oil markets. Chinese crude imports bounced a bit in July but remain far below the prior run rate. While crude is well off its highs and never made a historic spike, diesel cracks are far above prior all-time highs (gasoline is strong, too). China remains the wild card, but we think this setup is constructive for crude (and, by extension, the Canadian energy complex).

Chart #1 shows monthly Chinese crude imports. The massive ~5 mmbpd downshift in imports following the Hormuz closure demonstrated the extent of China's demand elasticity. July did see a ~1 mmbpd m/m increase from June's low. With somewhat higher crude prices and fewer vessels moving through Hormuz more recently, we'll see what August and beyond bring. However, we note that a return to the ~11 mmbpd five-year average would imply ~3 mmbpd of incremental demand.

Chart #3 shows that while diesel and gasoline prices are, of course, elevated, they are much closer to, or within, prior historical highs. Notably, clean-product prices in 2008 were similar to today's on a nominal basis (and therefore higher in real terms).

What this all shows is that global oil-market tightness is manifesting itself in cracks, not crude, at least for now. Wide cracks suggest refining runs should remain strong, however, which is positive for crude. While US refinery utilization dipped w/w, it remains near 20-year seasonal highs.

China is the crude-demand wild card, but with such wide cracks, one wonders how long it will be before the Chinese begin importing more crude to export more refined products (or simply replenish their own product/petchem stocks). Imports in the coming months will be telling as to how elastic China's buying remains.

In short, unless the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon and fuel supplies recover meaningfully, the focus will remain on refined-product markets, particularly diesel. The critical industrial fuel is being squeezed globally, and as Bank of America's commodities team warned, "the diesel market appears poised to stay tight, volatile, and expensive well into next year."

Professional subscribers can read a lot more energy content at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 12:50

Treasury Department Ends Ownership Reporting For US Small Businesses

Authored by Owen Evans via The Epoch Times,

The Treasury Department on Tuesday finalized a rule permanently exempting U.S. companies and individuals from reporting beneficial ownership information to authorities, rolling back Biden-era Corporate Transparency Act requirements.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testifies before the Senate Committee on Appropriations in Washington on June 3, 2026. Madalina Kilroy /The Epoch Times

"Today's action is a victory for common sense and American small businesses," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a statement on Aug. 11.

"President [Donald] Trump promised to cut red tape, and this final rule delivers. Treasury is eliminating a burdensome reporting requirement for millions of law-abiding business owners without compromising our national security."

The original rules, implemented under the Biden administration, had applied to tens of millions of mostly small businesses.

The Corporate Transparency Act (CTA) is the 2021 law requiring shell companies to disclose owners, and the Treasury Department's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) is the enforcer.

The new policy means that U.S. companies and U.S individuals no longer have to tell FinCEN who owns them.

However, foreign reporting companies will have to disclose beneficial ownership information for foreign individuals, the department said in a statement.

The Treasury Department said that FinCEN will also delete previously reported information by Americans from the government's beneficial ownership information database.

FinCEN had previously implemented rules requiring certain companies to report beneficial ownership data as part of anti-corruption and anti-money laundering efforts backed by lawmakers and the Treasury Department under former President Joe Biden.

The latest move adopts the exemptions set out in the interim final rule issued in March 2025, part of a broader push by the Trump administration. At the time, the Treasury announced that it would not enforce the CTA against "U.S. citizens, domestic reporting companies, or their beneficial owners."

Under the beneficial ownership information scheme, small businesses had to submit personal information about their beneficial owners, including name, address, birth date, and other information from a piece of identification such as a driver's license.

"Having a centralized database of beneficial ownership information will eliminate critical vulnerabilities in our financial system and allow us to tackle the scourge of illicit finance enabled by opaque corporate structures," then-Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a statement about it in 2024.

Estimates suggested that the reporting requirement would have applied to approximately 32 million businesses, including corporations and limited liability companies.

Failure to comply would have come with sizable penalties.

Businesses and their owners faced civil penalties of up to $591 for each day they did not file. They could have also endured $10,000 in criminal fines and faced up to two years in prison if regulators found that businesses submitted false information or willfully did not file, correct, or update beneficial ownership information reports.

In May, the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) released a report that recommended that the Treasury identify potential actions to address the risks posed by the domestic reporting company and U.S. person exemptions.

"Illicit actors frequently use corporate structures such as shell companies to launder criminal proceeds. These structures can be exploited because they allow the identities of people who benefit from or control them to be hidden from law enforcement," it said.

It also said that Congress and law enforcement should be provided with "highly useful information that addresses these risks."

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), the top Democrat on the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee, said rolling back the reporting requirements increased the risk of organized criminal activity.

"This is a gift to cartels, criminals, and U.S. adversaries that exploit shell companies to move millions through our financial system," she said in an Aug. 11 post on X.

"Secretary Bessent should testify in front of Congress to explain his decision to put our national security at risk."

Andrew Moran and Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 12:40

LIS Technologies' New $6.2M Oak Ridge Building Is The Missing Link In Nano's Fuel-To-Reactor Stack

LIS Technologies just bought the building that makes the Nano Nuclear vertical-integration story look more like a fuel cycle, instead of a slide deck.

The check for $6.2 million purchased K-1580, a 37,803-square-foot, three-story, newly renovated facility at 150 Americus Way on the historic K-25 Enrichment Site of East Tennessee's Technology Park Heritage Center in Oak Ridge, best known as the birth place of the Manhattan Project. It sits next to LIST’s leased K-1330 test-demonstration hall and complements the 206-acre “LIST Island” parcel where the company plans a $1.4 billion commercial laser-enrichment plant.

Jay Yu, Executive Chairman and CEO of LIST as well as Founder and Chairman of the publicly traded Nano Nuclear Energy, called Oak Ridge "the Silicon Valley of Nuclear." For once the geography matches the org chart.

The stack Nano and LIST have been drawing looks like this:

Feedstock → laser enrichment → deconversion → fabrication → reactors → transport → space.

K-1580 is where the middle of that chain is supposed to live.

Christo Liebenberg, LIST president and co-founder, said the building will host a pilot plant for the company’s SMILE program (Stable and Medical Isotope Laser Enrichment), office space for more than 100 additional employees, industrialization of critical laser-enrichment components, and a UF6 deconversion pilot.

COO Lloyd Jollay was more specific about why deconversion is the point:

“The facility also offers dedicated laboratory space for investigating UF6 deconversion processes. Integrating deconversion capabilities with uranium enrichment will create a more comprehensive fuel cycle solution and address key needs expressed by a number of advanced reactor developers.”

Those reactor developers are not hypothetical, they sit in the same building.

Nano’s lineup is KRONOS (stationary high-temperature gas-cooled MMR, now in NRC construction-permit territory via the University of Illinois deployment), ZEUS (solid-core battery reactor), and LOKI (portable, being prepped for space). Nano bought Kronos and Loki out of Ultra Safe Nuclear’s bankruptcy at the end of 2024, then hired Ameresco to engineer them toward commercialization. The fuel those machines need is LEU for the existing US fleet and HALEU for the SMRs. That is exactly what LIST’s CRISLA-3G laser process is being built to make.

The two companies already have the contract language. Nano invested in LIST in 2024 with an enriched-uranium supply agreement. Under the collaboration, Nano is supposed to develop the upstream capabilities to feed LIST UF6, then take LIST’s enriched UF6 into an integrated fuel-manufacturing process so the same molecules can land in Nano’s cores, or be sold into the wider industry. Nano is also a key subcontractor on LIST’s DOE award: LIST was one of six names on the up-to-$3.4 billion LEU Enrichment Acquisition IDIQ, with Nano bringing the licensing and advanced-reactor paperwork. They are related parties through overlapping ownership and officers. Yu is the overlap that matters.

Put K-1580 into that map and the campus reads left-to-right:

1. K-1330 (leased demo) - LIST’s test loop. Tennessee already issued a radioactive-material license so they can bring in UF6 and run the laser. NRC engagement for classified-handling procedures is underway on the demo.
2. K-1580 (just bought) - SMILE medical/stable isotopes, UF6 deconversion pilot, Phase II enrichment in a prototypical environment, component manufacturing, 100 desks. The deconversion step is what turns enriched hexafluoride into something a fabricator, or a KRONOS, can actually use.
3. LIST Island (206 acres, former Duct Island) - the commercial LEU-3 / Project F.U.E.L. hall. Groundbreaking still targeted for 2026, subject to licensing, permitting, and a final investment decision. Commercial operations still “before 2030.”
4. Nano’s other pillars - fuel fabrication (still the stated intent, no site announced), Secured Transportation Services for moving the material, and NANO Nuclear Space, which wants ZEUS and LOKI in cis-lunar power and eventually propulsion.

Medical isotopes are not a distraction in this narrative. Hospitals need precursor stable and enriched isotopes; quantum and advanced electronics want the same separation physics. SMILE lets the laser earn its keep on non-weapons-grade product while the uranium line walks up the TRL ladder. LIST says CRISLA-3G is at TRL-4, about 75% of the way to TRL-5, and moving toward TRL-6. Phase 2 of the pilot is still the gate before anyone should pretend they have commercial enrichment economics. That is their language, not ours.

What this week’s check actually does is nail a street address onto the middle of the stack. Enrichment at K-1330, deconversion and isotopes at K-1580, commercial plant on LIST Island, reactors at Nano, logistics at STS, space at NNS. One chairman, one Oak Ridge campus, and a fuel molecule that is supposed to never leave the family.

Whether the NRC, DOE, and the fabricator that does not yet have a building cooperate is the next chapter, but at least the org chart is no longer the bottleneck. The physical campus is starting to look like the chart.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 12:20

Paramount Mulling California Exodus Amid Antitrust Scrutiny

Authored by Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times,

Paramount Skydance could be the next major company to leave California as the media giant faces intensifying antitrust scrutiny over its purchase of Warner Bros. Discovery.

Makan Delrahim, Paramount’s top legal officer, said the Los Angeles-based company is “committed” to staying in California.

But he also noted that the company has “a fiduciary duty to shareholders.”

“You have to take a look at the business environment and look to see what’s best for not only the community and the business,” he said at Politico’s The California Agenda: Sacramento Summit on Aug. 12.

“And ultimately, you know, go to the place where you’re wanted.”

In recent years, scores of American companies - including SpaceX, X, Chevron, and Oracle - have shifted their headquarters or operations out of California and into other states. KB Home, Public Storage, Yamaha Motor, and D-Wave Quantum have been the latest businesses to relocate.

Paramount secured its $111 billion purchase of Warner Bros. Discovery earlier this year, beating Netflix for the acquisition of the legacy entertainment empire. Warner Bros. shareholders approved the offer in April.

But Paramount chose last month to pause its acquisition in the face of litigation from California and 11 other state attorneys general to block the merger. According to a court filing, both sides agreed to suspend the merger until June 2027 or until a judge rules on the case.

The states say they believe Paramount would obtain too much power over the news, entertainment, and sports media industry by acquiring Warner Bros.

“From the workers and artists who bring stories to life to the families who buy tickets at the box office, Paramount’s illegal takeover of Warner Bros. is a bad deal for all those who count on a competitive entertainment industry,” New York Attorney General Letitia James said in a July 24 statement.

“Halting this merger while our case proceeds is a critical victory in our efforts to uphold the law and protect the film and television industries. I look forward to continuing our case to stop this illegal merger.”

Paramount/Skydance Chairman and CEO David Ellison has pushed back against these claims, writing in an op-ed for The New York Times earlier this month that he does not aspire to lead these companies “to bend their newsrooms” to his views.

“I believe this fight is not really about market share,” Ellison wrote.

“I believe a plainer worry sits beneath the briefs and the news releases: the news. The issue is whether I can be trusted as a steward of Warner’s CNN. There has been speculation about my politics, my loyalties, my intentions.”

Delrahim says the legal efforts are harming employment opportunities.

“This merger is actually going to be good—not only for California—it’ll be good for America,” he said.

“I would love to see every policymaker who cares about jobs, who cares about high-paying jobs, who cares about union jobs—in California—speak on this merger.”

While the deal is enduring regulatory hurdles domestically, Paramount has received approval from the UK, the European Union, and other foreign markets.

New York Attorney General Letitia James leaves the Walter E. Hoffman United States Courthouse following an arraignment hearing in Norfolk, Va., on Oct. 24, 2025. Win McNamee/Getty Images

Despite U.S. legal challenges, Warner Bros. is confident that Paramount’s buyout will close.

“We have every expectation the transaction will close, and the company will be performing even better than the plan that we presented to [Paramount] when we did our deal,” Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav said during an Aug. 6 earnings call with analysts.

Market Skepticism

Shares of Paramount rose by about 0.6 percent midweek, but they are still down more than 28 percent year-to-date, trading at less than $10.

Wall Street analysts have turned bearish on the stock, with a consensus “reduce” rating, according to MarketBeat. Weiss Ratings was the latest firm to have a “sell” rating. Several firms lowered their targets to “sell,” “hold,” or “underperform.”

Market analyst Gary Gambino said that although he is confident the deal will close, the true challenge will be whether Paramount can deliver on its proposed $6 billion in synergies.

“At least some of this must be achieved to be successful, as both companies are struggling today on a stand-alone basis with their declining TV network businesses mostly offsetting growing streaming revenues,” Gambino said in a research note.

“If no synergies are delivered the current PSKY price is probably fair, but with all $6 billion of synergies, the shares would be worth close to $23.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 12:00

​​​​​​​"Abolish NYSE Stock Exchange," Says China-Based Hasan Piker Producer, Mamdani Campaign Alum

Far-left influencer Hasan Piker's China-based producer, Eric Hovagim, who also worked on socialist Zohran Mamdani's campaign, has said on recent podcasts and streams that he wants to "ban the American stock market" and has boasted about his relationship with a known Beijing-based propagandist waging an informational war on the US. 

Hovagim discussed his close friendship with China-based Marxist billionaire Roy Singham, whose network of revolutionary NGOs has been accused of promoting pro-Beijing and communist propaganda through what some describe as a possible foreign subversion network.

Via Free Press:

Taken together, these revolutionary comments from Hovagim merely point to a far-left agenda, suggesting that the Democratic Socialists of America are not truly focused on affordability, Palestine, climate change, opposition to data centers, or whatever the hottest issue of the day may be. Instead, they appear more focused on dismantling the foundations of America's capitalist system.

 

Stu Smith of the Manhattan Institute wrote on X:

Hasan Piker's China-Based Producer Wants to "Communize the United States"

I don't think it has fully sunk in that Hasan Piker employs a China-based producer who helps make his content and produce his interviews, is an open China apologist, worked on Zohran Mamdani campaign videos, and says he wants to "communize the United States of America."

He says Chinese surveillance has made his life materially better, calls much criticism of Beijing American propaganda, says there has never been a good U.S. president, wants the New York Stock Exchange abolished, and openly wonders whether America needs "a whole new system."

🚨 Hasan Piker’s China-Based Producer Wants to “Communize the United States”

I don’t think it has fully sunk in that Hasan Piker employs a China-based producer who helps make his content and produce his interviews, is an open China apologist, worked on Zohran Mamdani campaign… pic.twitter.com/QT8drxVUks

— Stu Smith (@thestustustudio) August 11, 2026

On another stream, Hovagim told his followers: "I'm friends with Roy Singham. He's dope."

Hovagim laughed off the idea that Singham has secret ties to the Communist Party of China, before acknowledging that Singham "is friends with a lot of them."

Hovagim boasted about his ties with Singham's wife, Code Pink cofounder Jodie Evans. He called her "f**king dope." 

"Texted her when the Treasury subpoenas arrived… She told me not to worry because they do this shit to us literally all the time," Hovagim said, referring to Jodie Evans, Code Pink cofounder, getting subpoenaed for a trip to Cuba to visit the communist in Havana. 

Hovagim continued to boast about his Singham ties, saying, "The whole squad out here, we all know him." 

He then praises Evans as "the real deal," citing her relationships with Fidel Castro, Hugo Chávez, and Nicolás Maduro's son.

Manhattan Institute analyst Smith commented, "The most revealing part may be how ordinary all of this appears within Hovagim's social and political world. Singham is not described as a distant donor or shadowy figure. He is a friend whom "the whole squad" knows, while Evans is someone Hovagim can text directly when subpoenas arrive." 

🚨 Hasan Piker’s Producer Says “The Whole Squad” Knows Roy Singham, Admits Singham Is “Friends With a Lot” of Chinese Communist Party Members

This is Eric Hovagim, a producer and researcher for Hasan Piker, discussing his personal friendship with billionaire activist funder Roy… pic.twitter.com/S312gpMpei

— Stu Smith (@thestustustudio) July 30, 2026

Foreign policy investigator Adam Kredo of The Washington Free Beacon revealed earlier this week that Arc of Justice, a nonprofit operated by Code Pink cofounder Medea Benjamin, was ordered to cease operations after years of missing tax filings and unanswered questions about what happened to $51 million in reported assets.  

"The silence from Arc of Justice raises unanswered questions about a foundation that has long served as the financial backbone for a network of radical advocacy groups tied to Benjamin and her Code Pink cofounder, Jodie Evans," Kredo wrote in the report. 

Far-left extremist Hasan Piker & Jodie Evans in Cuba: It's all one big network of radicals ... 

Fox News' Asra Nomani recently broke the story that Singham is at the center of a Justice Department criminal probe: A federal grand jury is investigating China-based tech tycoon Neville Roy Singham over alleged financial improprieties involving $278 million that investigators say moved through his financial network over the past decade.

FIRST ON FOX: A federal grand jury is investigating China-based tech tycoon Neville Roy Singham over alleged financial improprieties involving $278 million that investigators say moved through his financial network over the past decade.

Federal investigators are examining… pic.twitter.com/cqqt9QthU6

— Fox News (@FoxNews) June 29, 2026

Interesting https://t.co/HHh8RcM3gI

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 29, 2026

Risk intelligence platform Sayari shows Evan is Arc of Justice's registered agent and serves as the bridge to a broader network of entities, including:

• Codepink Action Fund
• Codepink: Women for Peace
• Environmentalism Through Inspiration and Nonviolent Action
• The MEP Foundation
• MP & JK, LLC
• Gateways and Passages, LLC
• Agrarian Land Trust
• Schumacher Center for a New Economics

The chart's main takeaway is that Arc of Justice is connected through Evans to several far-left Code Pink-related and other nonprofit or corporate entities.

According to investigative reports (e.g., New York Times, 2023), Singham has worked closely with pro-CCP propaganda networks targeting the US.

From NYT:

What is less known, and is hidden amid a tangle of nonprofit groups and shell companies, is that Mr. Singham works closely with the Chinese government media machine and is financing its propaganda worldwide.

From a think tank in Massachusetts to an event space in Manhattan, from a political party in South Africa to news organizations in India and Brazil, The Times tracked hundreds of millions of dollars to groups linked to Mr. Singham that mix progressive advocacy with Chinese government talking points.

Bitcoin Policy Institute documented one of those alleged Singham foreign influence operations: 

The takeaway is that the socialist movement in America wants to destroy the nation from within, which could be linked to foreign subversion networks operating within the nonprofit sphere:

• Hasan Piker Says Quiet Part Out Loud, Maps Radical Left NGO Network To China-Based Marxist Financier
• Feds Subpoena Hasan Piker, CodePink Cofounder Over "Humanitarian" Trip To Communist Cuba
• Feds Nab Alleged Member Of "Sprawling" Cuban Communist Subversion Network Linked To Hasan Piker's Havana Trip
• "Americans Deserve To Know": State Dept. Report Details Cuban Espionage, Subversion, And Role In Rise Of Far Left
• Bombshell Report Exposes Lefty NGOs Funding A Children's Charity Tied To Terror Network

Related:

• "We're Here To Destroy The White Race": Democratic Socialist Of America Hero Declares War On West

...and Bernie Sanders and much of the Democratic Party have welcomed these socialists and Marxists into the party's coalition. That embrace has become an absolute gold mine for opposition-research teams on the GOP side, which can draw on a steady stream of inflammatory statements from socialists and other far-left revolutionaries whose views remain far outside mainstream American opinion.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 11:40

Tehran's Houthi Proxies Attack Saudi Aramco Again, Crude Spikes, As Iran's Military Command To Be 'More Aggressive' Summary

• Saudi Aramco attacked again: Houthi drone strikes on a Saudi refinery sent oil prices higher.
• Hormuz stalemate & standoff: US says it can sustain the Iranian port blockade indefinitely.
• Iran digs in: Tehran appears prepared for a prolonged war of attrition.
• Hard-liners rise: Iran reshuffled senior security leadership toward a more aggressive posture.
• Diplomacy dead-end: Iran says the U.S. has miscalculated, while talks remain deadlocked.

*  *  *

Attack on Saudi Aramco Facility Sees Crude Spike

Oil prices have spiked Thursday on emerging reports that the Houthis have freshly targeted an Aramco refinery in Saudi Arabia's Jizan with two drones, according to regional Saba News Agency.

It seems this is part of Iran's 'counter-pressure' playing book against Washington and its Gulf allies, given the Houthis have long been a proxy arm of Iran. The Houthi group is in the midst of a 'siege for siege' war on Saudi shipping and energy. 

The Hormuz stalemate is meanwhile continuing, given War Secretary Pete Hegseth now says that the US military can maintain a blockade on Iranian ports for as long as needed.

“Indefinitely the United States Navy can maintain a blockade like that because we’ll rotate ships in and out, as we have, and we’ll continue to,” Hegseth told reporters. But Iran is also vowing to outlast and keep up the military pressure, enforcing its own strait management protocol based on the Oman deal.

Attrition Game Outlasting US Politics

Top adviser to the commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Mohammad Reza Naqdi, has been signaling Iran's more aggressive stance in media appearances this week, also following a significant reshuffling of top military leadership.

"Look, we have to attain deterrence so that the enemy never dares to attack us, so we can live with security," Naqdi said in an interview with PBS. "One way is to prolong this war until we get to the next term of the presidency and cause attrition, so that if anyone else wants to attack Iran, they will know there is a cost."

Alluding to the recent military reorganization, he described: "Whenever the conditions are favorable and the order is issued, we must be able to take the operation into enemy territory" - while contrasting the approach with a pre-war doctrine "primarily based on defense and the preservation of the country."

via The Australian

Military.com underscores that "Iran has reorganized its military to be more aggressive abroad as talks on ending the war with the U.S. remain mired in stalemate, a sign that Tehran is preparing for a protracted era of regional conflict."

As a reminder, this is after Tehran's obvious pivot away from negotiations, and toward a more permanent state of military resistance. The Wall Street Journal previously pointed out: "Now, the new supreme leader, Khamenei’s son Mojtaba, is putting his own stamp on the country’s national-security policy amid a confrontation with the U.S. that could last months or even years."

"Seasoned Hardliners" in Command

According to more of the analysis:

In a sweeping overhaul of the government’s top echelon on Sunday and Monday, Iran named seasoned hard-liners to run the country’s security policies and institutions of repression.

It marked the most significant government reshuffle under Mojtaba Khamenei, who hasn’t been seen in public since the war began. U.S. intelligence agencies say he is alive but severely injured, and top Iranian cabinet members say they have never met him since he took office. Iranian officials say he was injured but in good health.

Analysts said the appointments signaled Khamenei’s determination to hold fast in a showdown with President Trump, who is seeking concessions on Iran’s nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz. 

“The regime is preparing for a more confrontational posture at home and abroad,” said Kasra Aarabi, an expert on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a powerful paramilitary force, at United Against Nuclear Iran, a policy organization that opposes Iran’s government.  

And some fresh insight from Michael Stephens, a senior associate fellow at the UK-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI):

Nearly six months since the beginning of the war, Iran is now convinced that the US is not willing to conduct a ground invasion. “That existential threat is gone,” Stephens said. “So they want to up the tempo and maybe make the pain a little bit more acute for President Trump. And the best way to do that is to drag this out.”

Prior to the US-Israeli attack on February 28, the widely held belief was that the Iranian government would readily collapse, after enduring months of civil disobedience and unrest during major demonstrations in late December and January.

“That doesn’t seem to be the case now, and I’m not really sure the US has any tools in the bag to force the regime to do what they want,” the analyst said. Iranians can “live in this stalemate at the moment – it hurts them, but it’s not existential, and I think that’s the problem the US has now”.

Iranian leadership continues boasting of squaring up against the much larger American foe...

❗️ Iran says the US military is weaker than expected

“The longer this war continues, the more experience we gain.

We have never had a war like this to gain real experience and learn how to fight America.

Over these five months, we have learned this. We have also seen that the… pic.twitter.com/Yfz5T2pIkj

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) August 12, 2026 Iran: US Has "Long Miscalculated"

In follow-up, and as if confirming all of the above, Iranian Brigadier General Rasoul Sanaei-Rad has on Thursday said Iran will act more aggressively in the future, the Fars news agency reported.

"We stood firm in the recent war and, God willing, we will stand firmer and more aggressively in a possible future war," said Sanaei-Rad, a political adviser in the office of the supreme leader. He noted that Iran’s "enemy" is seeking to fracture the country through economic pressure, but that its plan did not succeed.

Below: Mohsen Rezaei, one of the longest-serving figures in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, has returned to the heart of Tehran’s national security establishment, after Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei appointed him secretary of the Supreme National Security Council.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and adviser to Iran's supreme leader Mohsen Rezaei, via Reuters

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also chimed on in on Thursday with a similar theme of Washington miscalculation. He asserted that the United States has "has long miscalculated due to intelligence failures," especially when launching its war on Iran.

American military actions in the Strait of Hormuz were "an even bigger miscalculation," Araghchi stated on X. "Worse than fake news is fake intelligence," the foreign minister said, perhaps in mockery of Trump.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 11:40

Private Credit's Problems Just Got Real

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

For most of this year, the private credit story I’ve written about (and warned about) has been about investors trying to get their money out. Now the loans themselves appear to be cracking.

The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that defaults across several of the largest publicly traded private credit funds have climbed to their highest levels in at least five years, while watchlists of troubled borrowers are simultaneously expanding and investor returns are deteriorating. In other words, the private credit mess I’ve been documenting since last year is entering what could be a far more important phase.

Until now, defenders of the industry could make a relatively straightforward argument. Yes, investors were requesting redemptions, and yes, some funds were limiting withdrawals, but the underlying credit portfolios were supposedly fine. That argument is getting considerably harder to make.

According to the Journal’s analysis, the percentage of nonaccruing loans at funds overseen by Ares, Golub Capital, Blue Owl and Blackstone has reached its highest level since at least 2021. At Blue Owl Capital Corp., nonaccruals reached 2.8% during the second quarter, the highest level in at least five years.

Nonperforming loans at the other three funds examined by the Journal also reached five year highs, surpassing even the levels seen in 2023, when the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes were putting enormous pressure on leveraged borrowers.

And it isn’t just defaults. Private credit funds managed by Ares, Golub and KKR have also reported increases this year in the number of borrowers showing deteriorating performance. Their watchlists are now at their highest levels since roughly 2022 and 2023.

That matters because watchlists are effectively the waiting room for future credit problems. Not every company on one will default, and different managers use different criteria, but when nonaccruals are already rising at the same time the pipeline of potentially troubled borrowers is expanding, it becomes increasingly difficult to dismiss the deterioration as a handful of isolated accidents.

Even Golub Capital co CEO David Golub acknowledged the obvious, telling the Journal, “We are clearly in a credit cycle.”

No shit. And in my opinion, the defaults aren’t going to stop anytime soon.

This is important because it adds another leg to a story I have been following for almost a year. I started warning about private credit last October, when I listed it as one of ten areas of the market I wanted absolutely nothing to do with heading into 2026. Since then, the warning signs have arrived with almost comical regularity.

For months I’ve been arguing that investors are ignoring a growing list of warning signs across the economy and financial markets. Stocks remain in what I believe is a historic bubble. The Federal Reserve remains trapped between stubborn inflation and an equity market that still looks significantly overvalued. Consumers are exhausted and buried under debt, while the bond market continues calling bullshit on the broader narrative.

Private credit fits neatly into that picture because while public markets have spent much of 2026 behaving as though risk has been abolished, underneath the surface investors have been trying to pull billions of dollars out of private credit funds.

I’ve spent much of this year documenting that process. Blue Owl restricted redemptions. Blackstone faced record withdrawal requests. BlackRock limited withdrawals. Morgan Stanley and Cliffwater capped redemptions. Stone Ridge gated investors. Apollo and Ares restricted withdrawals. Barings followed. By June, redemption requests at Cliffwater had climbed to roughly 17%, while Apollo once again limited withdrawals from its $25 billion Apollo Debt Solutions fund after investors requested redemptions equal to 16.8% of outstanding shares.

So we already knew there was a liquidity problem. What the latest data suggests is that we increasingly have a credit problem sitting underneath it. And those two problems can feed each other.

Private credit works particularly well when investors are content to leave their money alone. The basic mismatch is not complicated. Investors want periodic liquidity while funds own loans to private companies that don’t trade continuously and may be difficult to sell at anything resembling their stated valuation during periods of stress.

As long as relatively few investors request their money back, everything works. When everybody heads for the door, redemption caps kick in. That’s what they’re designed to do. The uncomfortable question is what happens if investors keep asking for their money back quarter after quarter while the underlying loans simultaneously deteriorate.

As defaults rise, funds have to recognize losses or mark down loans. Returns deteriorate. Investors have less reason to tolerate illiquidity, more of them request redemptions and fundraising becomes more difficult. That matters because private credit has become an important refinancing mechanism for leveraged companies. If less capital enters precisely when borrowers need to refinance, weak companies face higher borrowing costs, worse terms or potentially no refinancing at all.

Perhaps the most interesting part of the Journal’s reporting is not simply that defaults are rising. It’s when they’re rising. The U.S. economy has not fallen into some catastrophic recession. Economic activity remains relatively robust, yet private credit stress is already increasing.

If borrowers are increasingly landing on watchlists and loans are increasingly going nonaccrual while the economy is still holding together, what happens if economic growth rolls over? What happens if inflation prevents the Fed from delivering the kind of rate cuts heavily indebted borrowers want?

Then there is software. The Journal notes that software companies make up 20% or more of the loans in many private credit funds. This is something I’ve been writing about since March, when the Journal previously reported that private credit’s exposure to struggling software companies was significantly larger than advertised.

So far, many of the bad loans showing up are concentrated elsewhere, including healthcare businesses and companies affected by higher oil prices. But software remains the elephant in the room. Private equity spent years buying software companies because recurring revenue, high margins and predictable growth supposedly made them ideal leveraged assets. Private credit financed a lot of those transactions. Then AI showed up.

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The concern isn’t that every software company suddenly disappears. It is that the growth rates and valuations underpinning years of leveraged transactions may have been based on assumptions that no longer hold. If AI compresses margins, reduces pricing power or forces investors to assign lower multiples to software businesses, lenders don’t need every borrower to collapse. They merely need enough companies to start missing the projections upon which their leverage was based.

Meanwhile, the economics that attracted investors to private credit are becoming less compelling. Private credit funds routinely produced annual returns of 10% or better in previous years, according to the Journal. Today, even stronger funds are struggling to produce 7%. One troubled KKR managed fund lost 6.55% during the 12 months through June after losing 9.17% in the previous period.

That creates an obvious question. Why exactly should investors accept limited liquidity, opaque marks and growing credit risk if the return premium they receive for doing so keeps shrinking?

This is why I think looking at the latest default figures in isolation misses the larger story. I’ve been tracking this deterioration since October 2025. Since then we’ve watched markdowns appear, redemption requests surge, funds cap withdrawals, investors return the following quarter asking for even more of their money and concerns emerge about the industry’s enormous software exposure.

Now defaults across several major private credit funds have reached five year highs while watchlists of troubled borrowers are expanding. Any one of these things can be explained away. Taken together, they constitute a trend, and the trend isn’t improving.

Private credit hasn’t really been stress tested at its current scale. The asset class exploded during an extraordinary period of cheap money, enormous private equity activity and relentless investor demand for yield. Now dealmaking has slowed, portfolio companies are missing expectations, defaults are rising, watchlists are expanding, returns are declining and investors are simultaneously asking for billions of dollars back.

For nearly a year, every new crack in private credit has been dismissed as isolated. First it was markdowns. Then record redemption requests. Then redemption caps and repeated redemption caps. Now nonaccruals are reaching five year highs.

I don’t think the defaults are done. And if they continue rising while redemption requests remain elevated, private credit could find itself confronting both sides of the problem at exactly the wrong time, with investors wanting their money back while borrowers increasingly can’t pay theirs.

That’s when this story gets considerably uglier.

Tracking the private credit meltdown:

• August 11, 2026 - WSJ notes that defaults continue to grow to five year highs

• June 23, 2026 - Apollo gates investors for another quarter after they sought to redeem 16.8% of outstanding shares

• June 3, 2026 - Cliffwater redemptions hit 17% and Partners redemptions hit nearly 10%

• April 6, 2026 - Barings caps redemptions at 5% after investors seek to withdraw 11.3% in Q1

• April 2, 2026 - Blue Owl hit with “unprecedented” withdrawal requests

• March 31, 2026 - WSJ reports that software exposure among private credit funds is larger than disclosed

• March 27, 2026 - Cracks in private credit reach UBS Real Estate fund, forced to suspend withdrawals

• March 24, 2026 - Ares restricts withdrawals on its Strategic Income Fund after redemption requests hit 11.6%

• March 23, 2026 - Apollo caps withdrawals on its $25 billion Apollo Debt Solutions vehicle after redemptions hit 11%

• March 19, 2026 - Stone Ridge’s Alternative Lending Risk Premium Fund gates redemptions after overwhelming redemption requests

• March 16, 2026 - Apollo co-president says that “all” marks in parts of the private markets industry are “wrong”

• March 11, 2026 - Morgan Stanley and Cliffwater cap redemptions in $8 billion, and $33 billion funds, respectively

• March 6, 2026 - BlackRock begins limiting withdrawals from its $26 billion HPS Corporate Lending Fund

• March 3, 2026 - Blackstone faces “record” redemptions from its flagship private credit vehicle, investors sought to redeem 7.9% of fund’s $82B in assets

• February 19, 2026 - Blue Owl restricts redemptions from its retail private credit fund

• January 26, 2026 - Blackrock takes 19% markdowns on TCP Capital Corp.

• December 17, 2025 - Blue Owl walks away from $10 billion data center deal for Oracle

• October 15, 2025 - QTR warns private credit is one of 10 areas of the market that I would avoid heading into 2026

 

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author. I cannot guarantee the accuracy of all facts and figures included in this article though I made my best effort to get them right. I have been wrong before and will be wrong again, and encourage you to always double check, do your own research and speak to a licensed financial professional.

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Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 11:20

Massive Blast Rocks Italian Munitions Plant At Heart Of Europe's Ammo Supply Chain

A massive explosion has been reported at a major Italian manufacturer of medium- and large-caliber ammunition, formerly known as Simmel Difesa. The plant operates in Colleferro and Anagni, near Rome.

Local Italian outlet Sky TG24 reports: 

Fire and explosion at Colleferro, in the facility of the former Simmel Difesa, currently owned by KNDS Ammo Italy. The company, located in the Quarto Chilometro area, along via Latina, between Colleferro and Artena, produces medium- and large-caliber ammunition for land and naval defense, as well as solid fuels for aerospace launch vehicles. 

The incident is said to have occurred in the powder pressing department. A loud boom was distinctly heard by residents in the area, triggering the alarm.

Incendio ed esplosione a Colleferro, nello stabilimento dell'ex Simmel Difesa, attualmente di proprietà della KNDS Ammo Italy. L'azienda, che si trova nell'area del Quarto Chilometro, lungo via Latina, tra Colleferro e Artena, produce munizioni di medio e grosso calibro per la… pic.twitter.com/fa7NaSFFtA

— Sky tg24 (@SkyTG24) August 13, 2026

Separately, local media outlet Italia 24H Live posted footage on X that appears to capture the moment the explosion rocked KNDS Ammo Italy. 

Incendio ed esplosione a Colleferro, nello stabilimento dell'ex Simmel Difesa, attualmente di proprietà della KNDS Ammo Italy. L'azienda, che si trova nell'area del Quarto Chilometro, lungo via Latina, tra Colleferro e Artena, produce munizioni di medio e grosso calibro per la… pic.twitter.com/fa7NaSFFtA

— Sky tg24 (@SkyTG24) August 13, 2026

For context, KNDS Ammo Italy produces: 

• Complete ammunition ranging from 25mm to 155mm
• Naval rounds, particularly 76mm and 127mm ammunition for Leonardo/Oto Melara guns
• Medium-caliber ammunition for land, naval and air-defense applications
• Artillery ammunition, including 155mm shells
• Propellant powders and charges
• Explosives and warheads
• Proximity and programmable fuzes
• Combustible cartridge cases and metal components
• Missile components
• Ammunition inspection, refurbishment and demilitarization services

 

Developments remain scant, and officials have yet to disclose the cause of the explosion, the extent of the damage or which production lines, if any, were affected. Against a backdrop of elevated concern over the Russia-Ukraine conflict's expanding geographic footprint, the explosion warrants scrutiny. Officials have yet to disclose whether the blast was linked to sabotage or hostile action. 

Ending the streak? 

KNDS Ammo Italy is also Italy's largest producer of medium- and large-caliber ammunition and a preferred supplier for Leonardo/Oto Melara naval guns.

Any supply disruption would have great exposure to: 

• 76mm and 127mm naval ammunition, including programmable and proximity-fuzed rounds used for air and missile defense
• Specialized anti-air and anti-drone ammunition
• 155mm ammunition and modular propellant charges
• Fuzes, explosives and missile components supplied to other weapons manufacturers

Let's get back to the US, where, in late 2025, Accurate Energetic Systems, a key defense contractor and manufacturer of high explosives for the military, suffered a massive explosion.  

Stockpiles and potentially other KNDS plants could cover any outage at KNDS Ammo Italy. A prolonged disruption affecting explosives, propellant or fuze production would be more serious because alternative ammunition must be qualified for specific guns and fire-control systems. That process can take many months. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 11:00

All Of Iran's Weapons Today Are Domestic, Missile Production Exceeds Usage: IRGC Official

At a moment US officials as well as media headlines have been voicing alarm over depleted US missile stockpiles - something which President Trump sought to bat down as false - Iranian leaders have been busy boasting that their domestic defense production has not only kept pace but even expanded on the local production front.

Mohammad Reza Naqdi, Senior Advisor to the IRGC Commander-in-Chief, has been featured in state media as claiming that the production rate of ballistic missiles exceeds their operational launch rate, which comes on the heels of Tehran saying that it used the ceasefire with the US - which stretched from April into the summer months - to boost its weapons arsenal.

Naqdi asserted in a state television broadcast this week: "We are currently producing, and this process is unending." Naqdi warned further that "The enemy should not assume that Iran’s missile stockpiles will run out one day."

Iranian state media image

He also said: "There are many capabilities we have not deployed because we are managing the war with missile power."

Prior US (and Israeli) bombing campaigns since the start of Operation Epic Fury took direct aim at Iran's defense industrial sector. While it can be estimated that perhaps dozens or possibly even hundreds of missile sites as well as manufacturing locations were hit, damaged, and destroyed - Iranian officials say that hundreds more are still intact, scattered across the country.

Citing Naqdi's words further, Iran Wire writes:

He added that Iran does not rely solely on existing stockpiles, as defense equipment manufacturing remains continuous. Naqdi claimed that even if the war continues for years, ballistic missiles will still be manufactured in Iran and supplied to the armed forces on the final day of the conflict.

Highlighting the country’s industrial capacity, the senior advisor noted that, in addition to hundreds of industrial complexes, Iran houses approximately 950 industrial towns where defense equipment production is actively underway across various regions.

The same top IRGC official also this week was interviewed by PBS. In that interview he more broadly laid out that...

"We have to attain deterrence so that the enemy never dares to attack us, so we can live with security. One way is to prolong this war until we get to the next term of the presidency and cause attrition, so that if anyone else wants to attack Iran, they will know there is a cost."

ALL OF IRAN’S WEAPONS TODAY ARE DOMESTICALLY PRODUCED — IRGC senior commander

‘Our drones, our missiles, our fast attack boats, our air defense systems and our electronic warfare systems...all of our weaponry is completely indigenous’ — Brig. Gen. Naqdi pic.twitter.com/PAkcIgzsUk

— RT (@RT_com) August 11, 2026

Last week, a separate Iranian army official voiced something similar:

"We have made maximum use of the opportunity of the memorandum of understanding and every moment of the ceasefire," army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia told state television this week, referring to a now-suspended MoU signed with the US in June.

He said attempts were made to induct existing equipment into the armed forces and import new equipment, as well as repairing and recovering damaged systems or manufacturing new systems.

The brigadier general also said new-generation drones have been used in combat, and their specifications would be announced later.

Last month, Iran’s acting Defence Minister Majid Ebn-e Reza said that missile and drone production had "not stopped for a single day" and that drone production had reached three times its pre-war levels. But he did not provide any figures.

Meanwhile, the White House appears to have given up on finding a 'military solution' - and is settling in for a longer economic war, hoping the Islamic Republic will be weakened from within and ultimately collapse. But the Iranian military and government say the country is prepared to endure and outlast these external pressures while remaining ever-ready to resume retaliatory strikes if necessary.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 10:45

The Beautiful Great Game: Extra Time & Penalties

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Yesterday’s in-line US CPI report was the non-event its relative insignificance vs tumultuous domestic and global backdrops suggested it should be. Meanwhile, in the ‘Beautiful Great Game’, it’s extra time and penalties, medals and champagne for some, and tears for others.

Iran remains defiant. Trump says he has “total control” of and “will keep” Hormuz. He’s hoping the UAE can shuttle vastly more refined product through Hormuz under the radar than it already is, as Axios flags, ‘Diesel desperation is mounting globally.’ Trump is also hoping Tehran will crumble in the face of 300% inflation, as the US blockade really is seeing import costs rise 4x in coming only by land. Over the longer term, a popular revolt can’t be ruled out – but until then that threat looms in many places.

In the US, despite a narrow defeat in the Wisconsin gubernatorial primary, the Democratic Socialist Alliance is rising to threaten to do to the Democratic Part what MAGA has done to the Republicans. Even the Wall Street Journal has noticed the rise of the pro-communist Hasan Piker.

The UK today sees a by-election where Reform UK leader Farage likely trounces Count Binface, a comedian wearing a trash can/rubbish bin on his head. While many in London and Manchester may think this mocks a right-wing populist feuding with much further-right figures, in a manner also seen in the US, The Times’ take is that Farage will return to Parliament in a Trumpian style that will further shake established British political norms.

A poll for the German state election in Saxony-Anhalt in four weeks shows the far-right AfD at 43%, Chancellor Merz's CDU 23%, the Left party 13%, the SPD 7%, the Greens 5%, the minimum to enter the parliament, and the far-left BSW and pro-business FDP 4% and 2%, respectively. In short, the ‘sensible centre’ of CDU, SPD, FPD, and Greens cannot govern in any possible combination, and perhaps nobody can.

The looming 2027 French presidential election holds the threat of far-right Le Pen meeting far-left Melenchon in the final round, where the former perhaps offers markets the relatively smaller shock given the latter has recently talked about outright cancelling French government debt.

Helpfully(?), the FT today asks, ‘Why must a socialist also be woke?’ arguing, “If the left could separate economics from culture, capitalism would have more to fear.” Yet elsewhere it notes the Boston Fed’s Collins saying poorer Americans are struggling to make ends meet while backing a rate hike if inflation remains hot that will hurt them too. ‘Why must capitalism not wake up?’ is a key question we ignore in assuming how we’ve played the game until now will still work ahead.  

Don’t think this is just a Western issue. India has been plagued with angry youth protests called ‘The Cockroach Party’; South Korea’s governing DPK is struggling with young voters furious about unaffordable housing and the need to gamble in the volatile stock market to make ends meet.

Unfortunately, it isn’t only Hormuz to resolve. The Wall Street Journal underlines that ‘War Is Squeezing Another Global Chokepoint: The Black Sea’, where Russia is ramping up attacks on grain shipments while Ukraine has been striking oil tankers. That war and the one in the Middle East are also conflating in the Caspian Sea, where Ukraine has struck Russian Iran-bound cargoes, which saw Iran contemplate an attack on Ukraine in response.

Moreover, Putin is reportedly now considering retaliatory seizures of European ships world-wide after his shadow fleet has been interdicted by them. That could require a firm, expensive, and risky response.

Eurovision banning countries in an “armed conflict” or a “sensitive geopolitical situation” from hosting its song contest will not suffice: Russia is already banned, so this is likely aimed at Israel, but also covers Ukraine – and could the recent border Spain-Morocco border issue count too?

Indeed, much more is needed in extra time. A belated Establishment recognition that free trade is not appropriate policy in a zero-sum, geopolitical, neo-mercantilist world disorder requires countries to ask, “What is GDP *for*?” That then creates a cascading stack of follow-on questions, including “*Who* is GDP for?”

Even if we drop free trade, nobody is going to buy into a neo-mercantilism that makes people feel even worse off. Countries will therefore have to find ways to protect themselves and make people feel better off.

Yes, there is the ‘inflationary impact of tariffs.’ However, that kneejerk retort overlooks that neo-mercantilism can generate a supply-side response that lowers prices; and it sees the relative GDP share of consumption decline vs. that of investment and exports while consumer spending can still grow significantly in real terms – it did in China for many years, for example.

The Beautiful Great Game will therefore require new strategies and tactics. Old ones will need to be substituted – and some will be sent off. Space precludes a more detailed breakdown of what this is likely to entail ahead, but as underlined years ago, it involves structural changes to how the government, central banks, businesses, markets, and even society operate.

As the latest examples, the US is burning regulations like the Biden-era reporting requirement for US businesses; the US Army has just opened its testing ranges to private industry for the first time; and UK PM Burnham is talking about shaking up what the current vape-shops-and-Turkish-barbers high streets look like with differential local tax rates for various kinds of businesses. Moreover, the US Treasury has bailed out Argentina and intervened to help Japan – the latter to limited impact until the BOJ wakes up, which could trigger a tsunami for Japanese insurers and the Yen carry trade, requiring even greater US involvement; and, of course, the Fed is being restructured under Warsh and will almost inevitably work more closely with the Treasury.

There will be penalties: the US just sold 10-year debt at 4.68%, the highest such yield since the GFC. If that is a problem for the US, imagine what it means for a global system built on its back.

There will be winners’ medals and champagne: the FT today notes, ‘Wall Street giants bet Nvidia’s AI chips will defy the laws of finance’, where “Private capital firms are wagering that the crucial hardware will hold its value for years to come.”

There will also be tears. AI volatility and recent ‘permanent underclass’ fears aside, AI is such a national-security issue that it’s convenient that the private-sector is prepared to fund so many schemes exceeding the cost of the Manhattan Project, saving the state the expense, in the aim of… massive profits(?); but it’s the government --and military-- that will likely want the fruits at the end, and cheaply.

That realpolitik power dynamic is a key neo-mercantilism rule you wouldn’t want to get offside of.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 10:25

Palantir, Flock, & Data Centers: The Battle Dividing The Right

The political right spent much of the last decade united against Big Tech, government surveillance, and the unprecedented expansion of state power during COVID. But the rise of artificial intelligence has brought with it an urgent need for data centers, and firms like Palantir and Flock are providing government with increasingly sophisticated tools for mass-surveillance… severing the coalition that once simultaneously maintained the slogans “back the blue” and “don’t tread on me”.

7pm ET on the ZH home/X feed.

Tonight, ZeroHedge Debates takes on the emerging fault line: Is America's technological revolution essential to national renewal, or are conservatives embracing the very surveillance infrastructure they once feared?

Joining us are InfoWars host Harrison Smith and Jordan Schachtel, writer at dossier.today, two figures who once found themselves firmly aligned against the COVID-era regime.

At the center of the dispute are three issues: Palantir, data centers, and Flock surveillance cameras.

Schachtel calls Palantir “an exceptional American company” and argues that Flock is simply another tool for police to catch criminals… so if you opposed “defund the police”, then you ought to support Flock. 

Palantir is an exceptional American company. Benjamin Netanyahu is a great statesman of our time. Data centers are the heart of American technological infrastructure. Flock cameras are essential to city policing. Covid was a scam turned global hysteria, not a lab leak. Elon Musk… pic.twitter.com/1Wikabypui

— Jordan Schachtel (@JordanSchachtel) July 22, 2026

Smith on the other hand… thinks they’re just gonna f***ing kill us:

They are going to try to kill you. https://t.co/w8SFrVCe00

— Harrison H. Smith ✞ (@HarrisonHSmith) August 4, 2026

“Us” being people deemed a threat to the State, which could extend to all gun owners if the Dems take power

They want to revitalize the American heartland but NOT through tens of millions in data center revenue that saves towns.

They want to make the cities safe but NOT through Flock systems that dramatically reduce crime.

It's always easier to do nothing at all and maintain the…

— Jordan Schachtel (@JordanSchachtel) August 9, 2026

President Trump recently made remarks inline with Schachtel that data centers have the potential to be a huge economic boon for the United States economy. Smith, however, does not see the tangible benefits:

Can someone tell me how a data center will improve the lives of Americans?

Explain to me the benefits that we will receive worth trillions of dollars, billions of gallons of fresh water, millions of acres of farm land, and more energy than our biggest cities.

Someone explain. pic.twitter.com/P3wkP9crhk

— Harrison H. Smith ✞ (@HarrisonHSmith) April 27, 2026

Regardless of which camp you’re in, tune in this evening on the ZeroHedge homepage and X feed at 7pm ET tonight for the showdown.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 10:10