Zero Rss

Futures Slide As Tech Rout Continues, Kospi Halted As It Crashes 10%

Futures extend Monday's losses as the Tech tape continues to unravel; global Semis were hit yesterday and again overnight (despite the best attempts of Goldman and JPM to force retail to buy the falling knives) with Asian stocks and especially Korea (-10%) bearing the brunt with fears of Chinese competition accelerating the sell-off and then spilling back over into the US. As of 7:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.2% with tech slammed pushing the Nasdaq 0.9% lower and leaving the index set for a five-day run of losses for only the second time this year. Semis are again lower pre-market led by weakness in Nvidia, Intel and Micron, while Mag7 names are mostly bid and outperforming. While Defensives are leading Cyclicals, there are bids to Discretionary and Financials as both sectors look to outperform. As JPM writes in its Market Intel post this morning (available to pro subs), the market is swept in a risk-off tone (where all the news continues to be sold) that is continuing both the broadening in the US and a rotation ex-US where EU may continue to outperform as investors tilt towards Value; the $64 trillion question remains when do Semis / AI find a bottom. There is some good news as expectations (because they certainly are not taking place) of US, Iran negotiations are reducing commodity prices. As such yields are down 3bps, the USD is flat, and commodities are weaker led by Energy and Precious with Base and Softs the outperformers. Today’s macro data focus is on the weekly ADP print, Housing price indices, Consumer Confidence, Import / Export data, Inventories, and regional Fed activity indicators. 

In premarket trading, chip producers and other AI-related firms are extending their selloff as worries about China’s progress in advanced chipmaking weighs down sentiment. This is also exasperating concerns over the sustainability of the AI spending boom that has propelled the sector in recent years.

• Tesla and Nvidia are underperforming Magnificent 7 stocks during the selloff in chipmakers and AI-linked firms:
• Microsoft +1.1%, Apple +0.6%, Meta Platforms +0.4%, Alphabet +0.1%, Amazon +0.1%, Nvidia -1%, Tesla (TSLA) -1.4%.
• Applied Digital (APLD) gains 2.9% after the digital infrastructure designer reported fourth-quarter revenue to $258.7 million, a 407% increase from a year ago.
• Cadence Design Systems Inc. (CDNS) is up 2.5% after the electronic design automation software company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast.
• Carrier Global (CARR) jumps 5.1% after the HVAC company boosted its sales forecast for the full year.
• United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) is up 2.7% after boosting guidance for the year, suggesting the courier is benefiting from strong pricing as it works to shift volume from low-margin e-commerce shipments to more-profitable packages.

In other corporate news Johnson & Johnson agreed to a $5.5 billion commitment to resolve litigation related to claims that its talc products caused ovarian cancer. KKR is said to be exploring options for LS Automotive India including a sale. In deals, Curium is said to be in advanced talks to acquire radiopharma company Lantheus Holdings in a transaction that could value Lantheus at up to $8 billion, including contingent value rights. Stellantis agreed to sell its car-sharing business Free2move to a German private equity firm, part of a plan by the maker of Fiat and Peugeot cars to exit unprofitable businesses and refocus investments on core brands and regions.

While the weeks-long volatility in chipmakers is rumbling on amid fresh concerns over massive debt issuance, debt-funded AI capex spending and rising competition from China, traders are rotating into consumer stocks and other sectors that tend to generate relatively stable revenues regardless of the economic cycle. Lower crude prices also eased inflationary angst, with Brent dropping 3% to below $86 a barrel. The global benchmark is falling for a third straight day as the US and Iran extended their pause in hostilities. Focus will now turn to talks between Tehran and Oman over restarting traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.

“It’s perfectly legitimate for investors to dilute their positions in semiconductors. It’s a good time indeed to take some profits and diversify,” said Vincent Juvyns at ING Groep NV. “That being said, I advise clients to stay invested as visibility is pretty good for the sector.”

There’s more than earnings to consider over the coming days, of course. Citadel Securities’ Frank Flight, the firm’s head of macro strategy, expects the Fed to raise interest rates this week. “The market may once again be underestimating the extent of the hawkish shift at the Fed,” Flight wrote in a note. A hike “would emphatically end the forward guidance era” while underscoring the Fed’s independence, he said.

Meanwhile, the increasingly interconnected web of dependencies between technology manufacturers and AI startups continues to stir unease. The risk of these “circular” deals was highlighted last year here, and although markets forgot all about it, they are now once again freaking out. For JonesTrading chief strategist Mike O’Rourke, investors can “talk about the compute storage all they want and the fundamental demand, but it is clear that a significant portion of Nvidia’s sales come from an ecosystem that Nvidia is artificially creating.” The result is that the “only certainty one can have is the high degree of uncertainty in the AI environment,” he said. 

Credit-market signals are a more relevant short term gauge than EPS valuations for hyperscalers, notes Manish Kabra at Societe Generale. When there is a peak in CDS spreads, it should signal the market begining to price in an improvement in hyperscalers’ free cash flow and an end to a derating. But an inflection in FCF is not expected until the second half of 2027, Kabra adds. 

The gap between single-stock and index volatility is off its highs, but remains close to historical extremes, consistent with very low implied correlation. The combined effect of dispersion and sector rotation beneath the surface have caused individual stock moves to cancel each other out at the index level within the S&P 500.

Elsewhere in markets, corn futures in Chicago rose as government data pointed to the sharpest drop in US crop conditions in three years, potentially reducing supply. The biggest US power grid, PJM Interconnection, is warning that data centers may face involuntary outages under a plan to avert widespread blackouts and protect residential ratepayers from electricity price spikes.

Asia bore the brunt of Tuesday’s selling. The regional benchmark headed for a correction after SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics Co. tumbled more than 13% in Seoul.  The KOSPI tumbled 10%, closing at session lows following another 20 minute marketwide halt, on concern about circular AI financing and new DUV capability from China which may increase memory supply. The macro spillover is continuing. As KOSPI is down over 30% from the peak, Goldman estimates the retail wealth effect to reduce by ~15bp of GDP. Drop in equities also eases financing pressure from leveraged ETF, especially as govt continues to step up control on the product. 

Tech stocks are also slipping in Europe, but that’s being offset by strength in consumer goods and autos stocks, with the Stoxx 600 up 0.4%. European chip giant ASML extended losses for the week to 10% following the emergence of a possible Chinese state-backed rival. Still, advancing stocks in the Stoxx 600 outnumbered decliners by more than two to one even as earnings from Barclays Plc, LVMH and Unilever Plc drew a mixed reaction. The Stoxx 600 benchmark rose 0.4%. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.1% as investors await the Fed’s decision due later this week.    Interest-rate futures imply roughly a 38% chance of a quarter-point increase on Wednesday. The Fed is likely to leave rates unchanged but renewed tensions in the Middle East and Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s decision to hold a press conference “have made it a closer call than anyone would have thought a couple of weeks ago,” wrote Erik Weisman, chief economist and portfolio manager at MFS Investment Management

• JPY retreats slightly against the USD given the recent modest strength in the DXY; USD/JPY remains under the 23rd July peak at 162.42.
• EUR is modestly softer against the USD amid the lack of fresh catalysts. EUR/USD reside towards the bottom end of a 1.1354-1.1380 range at the time of writing.
• GBP has dipped under 1.33 (vs high 1.3305) amid the aforementioned DXY upside with limited UK-specific drivers in the session.

In rates, 10Y TSY yields are down 3bps to 4.62%, down 10bps since July 23 when Brent traded up to $100, with UK gilts slightly outperforming as investors trim their Bank of England rate-hike bets ahead of this week’s meeting. 

In commodities, oil prices slide for a second day, with Brent sitting around $86 having touched $100 last week. That’s buoying bond markets, with yields falling across the US, Europe and the UK.  Gold prices are down, though holding above $4,000/oz, and Bitcoin slipped below $64,000.

Looking the day ahead now, economic data includes US June advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, July Conference Board consumer confidence index, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, business conditions, Dallas Fed Services activity, May FHFA house price Index, and France July consumer confidence. We’ll also be getting a large batch of earnings including Visa, Coca-Cola, Boeing, NXP Semiconductors, Teradyne and Ford.

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• The Kospi index follows a weak US session lower, falling as much as 10.7%. Asia’s semiconductor related stocks come under intense selling pressure dragging the MSCI AC Asia Pacific index down over 3%
• The Kospi slumped as much as 10.7%, heading for the worst session since early March as both Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix slid more than 12%. Korea Exchange triggered a circuit breaker for the benchmark, marking its eighth such halt this year
• German officials are working behind the scenes to identify Chinese economic vulnerabilities that they could exploit if the European Union finds itself in a trade war with the world’s second-largest economy
• Australia’s central bank chief said there are signs the economy is cooling as anticipated, though it’s still unclear if this year’s interest-rate hikes are enough to return inflation to target or whether additional tightening will be needed
• China set a ceiling on new US tariffs and warned Washington against sanctioning Chinese artificial intelligence companies, drawing boundaries weeks before the next meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping
• A selloff in semiconductor stocks deepened Tuesday, as signs of China’s progress in advanced chipmaking weighed on global rivals and concern mounted over the sustainability of the artificial intelligence spending boom
• President Donald Trump said the US and Iran were engaged in diplomatic talks to end the Middle East conflict, but warned the two sides would return to fighting if negotiations didn’t yield a deal
• A nearly $600 billion rout in just a little over a month has flipped SK Hynix Inc. from one of the world’s hottest AI trades to one of the biggest portfolio question marks
• Oil extended a steep decline after President Donald Trump said that the US and Iran were engaged in talks to try to end the Middle East conflict, with the two sides continuing to hold off on attacks
• US Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said the tsunami threat from the Japan earthquake has now passed, with no tsunami threat remaining for Japan's coast.
• Shots fired at US consulate in Toronto for the second time this year, according to the New York Post. 
• US Senate votes to advance Trump nominee Clayton for Director of National Intelligence role.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly negative amid a tech bloodbath and competition concerns following reports that China had started mass production of domestically developed DUV lithography equipment, which had pressured ASML shares and the Nasdaq yesterday. ASX 200 bucked the trend as strength in telecoms and the consumer sectors offset the weakness in miners, materials and resources. Nikkei 225 briefly fell beneath the 62,000 level amid the tech-related losses, with Kioxia heavily pressured. KOSPI triggered a circuit breaker with double-digit declines seen in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were lower but with downside limited in Hong Kong amid the mixed performance among the local tech bluechips, while the mainland was subdued as trade frictions lingered with the US reportedly probing Chinese factories in Vietnam.

Top Asian News

• Japan's Finance Minister Katayama said must communicate with JGB market in run-up to budget compilation, and we hadn't done that. said:. Believes the government's relationship with the BoJ has been smooth. Very good that final version of the Economic Blueprint has won market understanding. Not currently considering JGB buybacks. Global bond markets have been affected by various factors such as US monetary policy, Ukraine and Middle East situations. Weak yen can have both merits and demerits. Won't comment on specific FX levels and won't comment on potential intervention. No change in stance that we're ready to respond on Forex as needed.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said taking price relief measures one after another, also noted that foreign banks' participation in projects under Japan's US investment scheme wipes out concerns about dollar funding.
• 5.0 magnitude earthquake in Qinghai, China, CENC reported. 
• Japan's Nuclear Regulation authority said there are no irregularities at nearby nuclear power plants after earthquake. Includes Ikata, Genkai, Sendai plants.
• Earthquake of prelim 7.1 magnitude hits Japan's Kyushu, NIED reported; issues tsunami warning of 1 metre, NHK reported.

European bourses began the session firmer despite sharp losses in APAC, particularly the KOSPI (-10%). At the time of writing, the Euro Stoxx 50 sees gains capped as ASML continued to weigh following reports China started DUV tool production, with the stock extending losses after Monday’s -8.5% decline. Sectors are mostly in the green, with Optimised Personal Care leading and Energy lagging, the former weighed on by LVMH post earnings. Broader sentiment is supported by optimism around US–Iran talks (see commodities for further details), which weighs on crude and underpins equities. Movers: ASML extends losses (-1.5%) on China DUV concerns. In earnings, LVMH (-1%) reported a revenue beat but softer Fashion & Leather Goods sales, Unilever (+6%) beat and raised guidance, while Mercedes-Benz (+3%) cut revenue guidance but maintained margins. In APAC, SK Hynix and Samsung fell ~12% amid memory concerns linked to CXMT’s listing.

Top European News

• US diplomats walked out of a UN Security Council meeting after France publicly criticised the Trump administration's human rights record.

FX

• DXY was directionless for most of the European morning before picking up in recent trade despite a lack of US-specific catalysts, with markets increasingly viewing the upcoming Fed meeting as potentially “live”. Tightening bets remained around a 30% probability of a 25bps hike, though softer crude limited further upside in the Buck. DXY has been edging higher in recent trade after topping the 1st July peak (101.60) and aims for the 25th June high at 101.75.
• JPY retreats slightly against the USD given the recent modest strength in the DXY; USD/JPY remains under the 23rd July peak at 162.42.
• EUR is modestly softer against the USD amid the lack of fresh catalysts. EUR/USD reside towards the bottom end of a 1.1354-1.1380 range at the time of writing.
• GBP has dipped under 1.33 (vs high 1.3305) amid the aforementioned DXY upside with limited UK-specific drivers in the session.
• Antipodeans underperform, led by AUD, which drifted lower to a 0.6963 base following remarks from RBA Governor Bullock that were viewed as lacking strong forward guidance. NOK also lagged as oil prices declined, with the cross nearing parity (1.001).
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7928 vs exp. 6.7730 (prev. 6.7911).

Fixed Income

• UST are firmer, gaining around five ticks at best to a 108-24+ peak, just above Monday’s 108-22 high but still shy of last week’s 109-00 and 109-08+ peaks. The move was driven by the pullback in energy amid US–Iran diplomacy, with focus turning to incoming data and a 7yr auction.
• Bunds trade in line with USTs but with slightly greater magnitude, holding around 10 ticks below the 125.21 peak while still posting gains of a similar amount. The upside is supported by softer energy prices, with some caution ahead of the Fed given the ~30% implied probability of a July hike.
• Gilts opened on the front foot and outperform, gapping higher by around 10 ticks before extending to a 87.48 peak, taking out last week’s high. The benchmark then looks towards prior resistance levels at 87.60, 87.72 and 87.82.
• Italy sell EUR 2.5bln vs exp. EUR 2-2.5bln 2.20% 2028 and 0.50% 2028 BTP and EUR 3bln vs exp. EUR 2.5-3bln 2.00% 2037 BTPei. 2.20% 2028: b/c 1.79x (prev. 1.51x) & average yield 2.89% (prev. 2.74%). 0.50% 2028: b/c 1.90x & average yield 2.92%.2.00% 2037 BTPei: b/c 1.4x & real yield 2.04%.
• UK DMO sold GBP 750mln of 0.125% Jan 2028 Gilts via tender: average yield 4.090% (prev. 3.989%); b/c 5.35x (prev. 4.97x).
• Netherlands sold EUR 2.99bln (exp. 2.0-3.0bln) 2.75% 2036 DSL: average yield 3.206% (prev. 3.209%).
• Japan sold JPY 649bln in 10yr, 20yr and 30yr JGBs in enhanced liquidity auction; b/c 2.68 vs. Prev. 2.92. Highest accepted spread +0.004% vs. Prev. +0.020%. Allotment of bids at highest spread 87.6152% vs. Prev. 98.6666%. Australia sold AUD 800mln 4.25% October 2036 bonds, avg. yield 5.0345%, b/c 4.70.

Commodities

• Crude futures are lower as US–Iran diplomacy (at face value) continue to improve sentiment, with Oman’s Hormuz proposal and reports of Iranian “flexibility” weighing on prices. Brent Oct’26 trades towards the bottom of a USD 83.58–85.60/bbl range, while WTI Sep’26 sits near the lower end of USD 80.36–82.43/bbl. Dutch TTF was also softer by almost 2%, finding support around EUR 56/MWh.
• Precious metals are subdued despite lower oil, as geopolitical risk premium unwinds and caution emerges ahead of the FOMC.
• Spot gold trades within a narrow USD 4,034–4,081/oz range, inside Friday’s USD 4,022–4,082/oz band.
• Base metals are on a softer footing, though losses were contained by constructive geopolitics. The complex is weighed on by weak APAC tech sentiment, with 3M LME copper trading within a USD 13,620.00–13,739.83/t range.
• Libya's NOC said it halted production at the El Feel oil field (80-90k BPD) and a partial halt to the Wafa field (20-30k BPD), according to Sky News Arabia & Al Hadath; due to protest action.
• Saudi Aramco is mulling new oil pricing to reflect higher freight costs for cargoes loading from Egypt's Sidi Kerir to Asia.
• QatarEnergy has extended LNG force majeure for European customers.

Trade/Tariffs

• Germany said to be working on mapping China's weaknesses in preparation for potential future trade war, Bloomberg
• reported.
• China said it never deliberately pursues a trade surplus and vows to strengthen industry through global coordination, according to Xinhua.
• US probes Chinese factories in Vietnam, stoking new levy fears.
• US Trade Representative Greer said in Fox News interview new Section 301 tariffs shouldn't cause economic effects we're not already facing, adds tariff rates are comparable to previous tariffs and talks with Mexico are focused on ensuring balanced trade

Central Banks

• Citadel Securities said Fed chair Kevin Warsh could surprise with a rate hike this week, which would bolster his credibility in the inflation fight.
• RBA Governor Bullock said board is ready to hike cash rate further if needed, while key question is if tightening already delivered is enough to slow inflation. said:. Policy works with a lag, meaning the full impact of this year's rate increases has yet to emerge. The strongest contribution monetary policy can make is to preserve low and stable inflation. Further slowing in demand growth will likely be needed to bring inflation lower. Some additional easing in labour market conditions will probably be required. The economy has adjusted gradually and broadly in line with expectations. Monetary policy cannot solve Australia's weak productivity growth. Underlying inflation has developed as expected but remains too high. Businesses continue to report increasing non-labour cost pressures. The housing market has softened more than anticipated. Demand growth is moderating broadly in line with the May baseline forecasts. It remains too early to judge the full economic impact of the recent oil shock. Don't know what the board will decide at next meeting, will depend on whether board thinks policy is restrictive. Will have some difficult decisions to make if board thinks inflation is not coming down.
• Philippine Central Bank Governor said large inflation impact seen in 2027 and 2028, adds peso decline could also cause increase in inflation, also sees small chance for aggressive tightening. said:When the dollar is strong, we limit intervention to maintain order.

Russia-Ukraine

• Russia's Tyumen oil refinery halted operations on July 25 after a drone attack, sources say.
• Finland temporarily closes airspace near Russia amid potential stray drone.
• EU hesitates to target an Irish alumina plant accused of supplying Russia's war industry, amid fear of cutting off supplies critical for European industry, according to FT.
• US President Trump will meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky at 09:30EDT/14:30BST and will meet with Israeli PM
• Netanyahu at 11:30EDT/16:30BST on Tuesday.
• US Senate is expected to start voting on Russia sanctions bill as soon as Tuesday during Ukrainian President Zelensky's visit.

Middle East

• A military source from Sanaa, Yemen reportedly stated that the recent Yemeni operation showed that Saudi Arabia's oil facilities are now on the list of legitimate targets available to Yemen, Tasnim reported.
• Iran has lost c. 230mln/CM of gas production capacity during the US-Iran conflict, JRTV reported.
• Iran demonstrating 'flexibility' over Hormuz Strait operations, sources tell Al Jazeera.
• Oman is said to have presented to Iran a proposal for a joint regional mechanism to manage the Strait of Hormuz with
• "voluntary fees", according to Reuters sources. The source said Iran would not exercise sole control of the Strait.
• Iran's Foreign Minister is said to have held phone called on Strait of Hormuz security with Saudi and Oman officials.
• US-led talks between Israel and Lebanon will take place in Rome on August 4-6, according to a State Department official.
• US official noted significant momentum in Israel-Lebanon peace track. Talks are to focus on redeployment and border issues in Lebanon.
• US officials say that sanctions may damage Iran more than bombing and Trump administration said to focus on economic pressure to force Iran deal, according to Axios.
• Oman's Foreign Minister held called with counterparts from Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and Egypt to discuss efforts to reduce tensions, according to Iran International. Talks focused on pursuing practical, fair and sustainable understandings through political and diplomatic channels, ensuring safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, and restoring the uninterrupted flow of trade and global supply chains.
• Iran will maintain special regime for passage of Russian vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, according to TASS.
• Israel conducts artillery attack on eastern Gaza City, according to SNN.
• Hamas delegations is carrying positive positions on the roadmap presented by Gaza representative Mladenov and the
• mediators, provided Israel agrees, Al Jazeera reported citing sources
• Israeli PM Netanyahu reportedly struggled to get on US President Trump's schedule for today, Axios reported, suggesting the Israeli PM's influence is waning.
• Satellite images show that recent Iranian strikes hit Amazon (AMZN) data centres.
• Reports of an Israeli drone airstrike in southern Lebanon, Al Jazeera reported.
• Iranian, Omani, and Saudi Foreign Ministers held a phone call yesterday; notable details light.
• Occurrences of explosions in Saudi Arabia and Jordan, ISNA reported citing sources; six explosions occurred near oil and gas facilities in the Al-Sharqiyah region of Saudi Arabia.
• Reports of widespread drone attacks on eastern Jordan’s desert, Press TV reported.
• Jordanian army said that they shot down a drone that violated Jordanian airspace in the eastern desert.
• Iraqi sources report attack on separatist group's weapons depot in Sulaymaniya, Iraq.
• Report noted that drone and rocket attack in Erbil was near the US consulate.
• More than seven explosions heard in Erbil, northern Iraq with the headquarters of separatists rocked, while US Consulate in Erbil was also reportedly targeted, according to IRIB.
• Explosions reported in Erbil, northern Iraq, with the Khor Mor Gas Field attacked, according to Tasnim and SNN.

US Event Calendar

To the day ahead now, economic data includes US June advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, July Conference Board consumer confidence index, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, business conditions, Dallas Fed Services activity, and May FHFA house price Index. We’ll also be getting a large batch of earnings including Visa, Coca-Cola, Boeing, NXP Semiconductors, Teradyne and Ford.

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Tech concerns have been the dominant driver in Asia this morning as renewed worries over AI investment spending, and competition from cheaper Chinese companies, have triggered another selloff in global semiconductor stocks. The KOSPI (-10.11%) is the worst-performing index, heading for its steepest decline since early March during the onset of the US-Iran conflict with the sharp drop also prompting circuit-breaker measures earlier in the session. The benchmark is being weighed down by major chipmakers, with SK Hynix falling as much as -13% and Samsung Electronics declining around -12%. Additionally, the Nikkei (-4.10%) is also seeing sharp losses, falling to its weakest level since May 22 with Kioxia Holdings down another -18% and now roughly -60% lower from its peak in late June, around the time we discussed its remarkable story in the WOW! pack given it had gone from nowhere to become the largest company in Japan in a few months. A really remarkable story.

This sums up the past 24 hours as markets have been caught between a new sell-off in chipmakers and the positive news that the US-Iran pause from over the weekend would continue as both sides negotiate in talks. This meant that the S&P 500 (+0.02%) and Nasdaq (-0.16%) were little changed yesterday after an initial rally, whilst the Philly Semi Stock Exchange Index (-2.23%) fell further. The equity performance also wasn’t helped by new highs in real yields, though nominal 10yr Treasury yields (-2.8bps) came down as Brent crude fell -8.70% yesterday, in its largest decline since April. It is an additional -2.0% lower this morning, trading at $86.59/bbl, after being at $101 on Friday morning. S&P 500 (-0.22%) and Nasdaq (-0.74%) futures are lower this morning. 

Elsewhere overnight, the CSI 300 (-2.12%) and Shanghai Composite (-0.90%) are also lower but we have seen CXMT Corp.’s blockbuster debut in Shanghai over the last 24 hours. Their shares surged a stunning +466% after the IPO yesterday. The listing has reinforced investor confidence in Beijing’s drive for semiconductor self-sufficiency and has propelled the company to become China’s most valuable firm. It has also helped send shockwaves around the semis world. 

Turning to the Middle East, Trump said in an interview with Axios yesterday that he had paused strikes on Iran whilst negotiations are taking place, although if the talks fail, the US would “go back to very strong military action.” He also suggested in comments to reporters that “there’s a good chance” of a deal, saying repeatedly that talks were progressing. And while Iran’s Foreign Ministry suggested that no formal negotiations were taking place with the US, we saw continued reporting of talks between Iran and Oman on re-opening the Strait of Hormuz. There was also some more concerning news, not least with Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities over the weekend. But overall, the focus on talks sent front-month Brent crude -8.70% lower, while 6-month Brent futures were down -3.29% to $79.67/bbl.

The fall in oil prices meant that near-term inflation expectations also declined, with the US 1yr inflation swap down -10.5bps to 1.93%, while the Euro 1yr inflation swap (-18.0bps to 2.42%) fell even more. The decline in breakevens was partially offset by a rise in real yields, with the 2yr real Treasury yield up +7.7bps, while the 10yr real yield rose +1.5bps to 2.45%, its highest since October 2023. Put together, this left nominal yields a few basis points lower on the day, including for 10yr Treasuries (-2.8bps), bunds (-3.8bps), OATs (-4.5bps), and gilts (-2.6bps). 

The Treasury rally was more marginal at the front-end, with pricing of a Fed rate hike as soon as tomorrow stable at 38% yesterday. Staying with the Fed, in a separate interview onboard Air Force One Trump reiterated that interest rates in the US should be lower and that “Warsh’ll do the right thing,” saying “I know what he wants.” Meanwhile for the ECB, we did see a bit more of a pullback in hike expectations, with pricing of further hikes by the December meeting down -1.6bps to 42bps.

After rallying at the open on the retreat in oil prices, US equities whipsawed lower after chip stocks sold off. The catalyst was chip-equipment manufacturer ASML (-8.41%), whose shares fell after the Information reported that a Chinese company had successfully started mass production of deep ultraviolet lithography machines needed to create advanced semiconductors. The news led to a decline across other chip-equipment peers, with the Philly Semi Stock Exchange Index down -2.23% yesterday.  Nvidia (-4.99%) shares also fell after it was revealed that the company was working on AI deals worth more than $750bn, renewing investor worries on circular AI financing.

The broader equity mood music was better, however, with nearly two-thirds of the S&P 500 higher on the day and the small cap Russell 2000 up +0.62%. And in Europe, indices including the DAX (+1.04%), CAC 40 (+0.40%) and FTSE 100 (+0.42%) saw decent gains, although the Stoxx 600 (+0.02%) was dragged down by ASML and other semi companies.

Economic data was light yesterday but we did get Germany’s July IFO business climate release (86.6 vs 86.0) surprise to the upside, driven by the expectations component (86.7 vs 84.8 est), which may reflect the federal government’s recently adopted reform measures.

Finally, the Swiss Franc weakened after Bloomberg reported that the SNB expects to keep its interest rates at 0% until the end of 2027. The Swiss franc fell by about a quarter of a percent against the euro following the story, though its daily decline was a more modest -0.09%. 

To the day ahead now, economic data includes US June advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, July Conference Board consumer confidence index, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, business conditions, Dallas Fed Services activity, May FHFA house price Index, and France July consumer confidence. We’ll also be getting a large batch of earnings including Visa, Coca-Cola, Boeing, NXP Semiconductors, Teradyne and Ford.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/28/2026 - 07:25

Tether's XAUt Gold Token Receives Shariah Certification To Expand Islamic Finance Access

Authored by Nate Kostar via CoinTelegraph.com,

Tether’s gold-backed token XAUt has received Shariah certification from Amanah Advisors, a move that could expand access to the token among Islamic financial institutions and investors seeking Shariah-compliant exposure to physical gold.

The certification found XAUt’s structure complies with key Islamic finance principles, including full backing by physical gold, the absence of interest and leverage, and transparent reserves.

Each XAUt token represents one troy ounce of physical gold stored in Swiss vaults, according to Tether.

The designation gives Tether a clearer pathway to market XAUt to Islamic financial institutions and investors that require Shariah-compliant investment products.

Tether said it expects the certification to support adoption across markets where Islamic finance is widely used, including the Gulf Cooperation Council, South Asia and parts of Africa.

XAUt is one of the largest tokenized gold products in the crypto market. Tether’s latest reserves report showed the token was backed by more than 707,000 troy ounces of physical gold worth over $3.3 billion as of March 31.

According to RWA.xyz data, the token’s onchain asset value has climbed from about $700 million in July 2025 to roughly $2.5 billion.

Tether tokenized gold. Source: RWA.xyz

Shariah-compliant crypto products gain traction

Cryptocurrencies have long divided Islamic scholars, with debates centering on whether digital assets comply with Shariah principles that prohibit excessive uncertainty, speculation and interest. As companies seek to address those concerns, Shariah-compliant digital assets have begun to emerge.

One early example came in 2025, when Bahrain-based AlAbraaj Restaurants Group adopted a Bitcoin (BTC) treasury strategy and said it planned to develop Shariah-compliant financial instruments to broaden access to Bitcoin across the Islamic world.

More recently, in April, Palm Azgar Finance expanded its Shariah-compliant PUSD stablecoin to ADI Chain, targeting the more than $3 trillion Islamic finance market. PUSD became the second stablecoin available on the network, allowing institutions to settle transactions using either a dollar-linked asset or a dirham-denominated token on the same infrastructure.

Meanwhile, Dubai has emerged as a leading crypto hub in the Middle East, continuing to expand its regulated digital asset market. Earlier this month, the emirate’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA) issued its 50th virtual asset service provider license, surpassing the number of licensed crypto firms in Hong Kong and Singapore.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/28/2026 - 07:20

Powerful Quake Rocks Southern Japan

A powerful 6.8-magnitude earthquake rocked southern Japan on Tuesday afternoon, injuring dozens, sparking fires, and damaging buildings.

The Japan Meteorological Agency has since called off a tsunami alert for the coasts of the Ariake Sea and the Yatsushiro Sea. The quake struck Kyushu Island, in Kumamoto Prefecture, shortly before 4:30 p.m. local time.

NHK footage showed severe damage to the Kyushu Expressway, smoke rising from homes, and a partially collapsed wall at Kumamoto Castle.

熊本 宇城市と氷川町で震度7 被害相次ぐhttps://t.co/fAoIlTGbTd pic.twitter.com/XUUqaauCBg

— NHKニュース (@nhk_news) July 28, 2026

【速報 JUST IN 】【地震】熊本 八代 橋の一部が崩れる 上空からの映像https://t.co/5yeg6MbbQN #nhk_news

— NHKニュース (@nhk_news) July 28, 2026

【地震】熊本 イオンモール熊本で爆発https://t.co/cc3ru0syKJ pic.twitter.com/aI4j4ELEv5

— NHKニュース (@nhk_news) July 28, 2026

イオンモール熊本で爆発音 多数が閉じ込めか けが人もhttps://t.co/cc3ru0syKJ#nhk_video pic.twitter.com/KTraNyJ1mR

— NHKニュース (@nhk_news) July 28, 2026

There were no reported abnormalities at the nearby Sendai Nuclear Power Plant, Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara told reporters.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/28/2026 - 06:55

New British Defense Secretary Says Europe "Shaken Out Of Complacency" By Trump

Authored by Guy Birchall via The Epoch Times,

Newly appointed British Defence Secretary Wes Streeting said on July 26 that Europe will one day thank U.S. President Donald Trump for “shaking us out of our complacency” on defense spending.

Speaking to British broadcaster Sky News, Streeting said that he genuinely believes “when this period of history is written, Europe will thank President Trump for shaking us out of our complacency and forcing us to stand on our own two feet and end the period of overreliance on the United States for defense.”

Former Health Secretary Streeting was appointed to the defense role on July 20 by the new British Prime Minister Andy Burnham after he reshuffled the Cabinet following the resignation of his predecessor Keir Starmer.

“What he’s said about Europe isn’t unique to President Trump, the MAGA movement or the Republican Party. This has been a long-standing grain of U.S. frustration with Europe under Democratic and Republican presidents,” Streeting said, adding that “in the world we live in, it is right that we can act to secure ourselves.”

Trump has repeatedly called on the UK and other European countries to spend more on ​defense and become less reliant on the United States for the continent’s security.

The push for NATO allies to do more to secure their own defenses came as the United States reoriented its defense and security priorities.

Asked if he trusts Trump, Streeting said, “I don’t know him, but I do trust the United States,” adding that in his first week in the role he has had “a unique insight into just how close and integral that relationship [between the UK and the United States] is when it comes to defense and security.”

Discussing his conversation with U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, Streeting said he was “clear that we’ve not supported offensive action in Iran and we won’t support offensive action [in] Iran,” but added that there are “plenty of things that we can and should do together when it comes to securing the Strait of Hormuz.”

Streeting’s predecessor but one, John Healey, who now has the role of chancellor of the exchequer, the UK’s equivalent to treasury secretary, resigned his post last month in protest over the previous government’s reluctance to adequately fund defense spending, in a move that contributed to Starmer’s eventual downfall.

Healey announced his resignation in a highly critical public letter posted on X, in which he accused Starmer and the Treasury of being “unable” and “unwilling” to “commit the resources that the nation needs to defend the country at this time of rising threats.”

Burnham, in one of his first interviews since becoming prime minister, told the BBC he was “absolutely committed” to what was promised to NATO partners.

The UK has pledged to spend 3.5 percent of GDP on defense by 2035, in line with a new NATO target.

Burnham said that when he appointed Healey to be chancellor he was “very aware of what he had said about the critical importance of defense spending and the position that he had taken about that.”

“The first challenge facing us both is to ensure that the defense investment plan is fully funded and that’s the thing that’s right in front of us and we need to work that through as we go towards the budget later this year.”

Burnham also stated that he would be prepared to publicly disagree with Trump if British and American interests didn’t align but added that he had had a good first exchange with the president, finding him to be “really warm.”

Trump, discussing his phone call with Burnham in a July 20 post on Truth Social, said he had a “very good conversation” with the new British prime minister.

“We discussed many subjects, including the outstanding relationship we have had with the UK. We will be meeting in the not too distant future for topics of mutual interest,” Trump said, adding that Burnham “has got a big job ahead of him, but he will be able to do it and, of course, the U.S.A. will be there to help!”

He added that they discussed “North Sea Oil, Trade, the Military Alliance, Demining of the Hormuz Strait, and many other topics,” and said the call “went very well.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/28/2026 - 06:30

Netanyahu Ahead Of Trump Meeting: Iran War Will End Only With Regime Collapse Or Nuclear Halt

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu departed from Israel on Monday afternoon for the United States, where he will be hosted in the Oval Office on Tuesday. "This is my eighth meeting with him since he was elected President, more than any other international leader," Netanyahu told reporters ahead of the Trump meeting. He acknowledged that Iran will be top of the agenda, and asserted: "I am setting out on this mission with one clear goal: to ensure the security, strength, and future of our dear State of Israel."

"From my experience as prime minister, during these complex times we must act with both great determination and great wisdom," he stated. "Our joint efforts have brought about a tremendous victory over our common enemy - Iran."

via GPO

"We have already transformed the face of the Middle East beyond recognition, and we now have the opportunity and the ability to change it even further and bring a great future to the State of Israel, the people of Israel, and the entire [region]," Netanyahu said, mentioning the Abraham Accords.

In an appearance on Fox News just before his trip, he laid out that the Iran war must end with either regime collapse or total nuclear program halt. He said that Tehran must understand that continuing to cause "global economic chaos, kill thousands of its own citizens, and attack others" carries severe consequences. 

He emphasized the Islamic Republic's nuclear program must end "with or without a deal." According to more:

The Iran war will end "when the Iranian regime falls, or weakens to such an extent that it understands that it must end its nuclear program," Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said during a Sunday interview with Fox News.

Netanyahu insisted that Iran end its nuclear program "with or without a deal," noting that US-Israeli attacks against the Islamic regime had set the program back by "a good few years."

He added that an Iranian nuclear weapon would be a "mortal peril to every citizen in the United States," saying that Israel would "pursue all the means to prevent that" from happening.

And Netanyahu reiterated that any Iranian or proxy militant attacks against Israel would be met with a "very decisive" response, adding that the country would be making a "huge mistake".

He also told Fox that he eagerly awaits being informed by Trump of next potential decisions on Iran, and added: "In many respects, it is his decision."

Curt Mills of The American Conservative has commented in reaction to Netanyahu's comments as he heads to Washington to sell Trump on an Israeli vision for the war...

Plain as day. And fair enough (for him). Nothing -- nothing -- about how this is in the interest of the United States of America.

At the moment there has been a 'pause' in fighting in effect, which could flare up again at any time. 

In Washington, the late Senator Lindsey Graham's funeral proceedings will start Tuesday. There's a big of irony to Netanyahu meeting Trump the same day, as Graham was an outspoken pro-Israel, anti-Iran hawk who had for many years advocated for regime change war against Iran.

Netanyahu before leaving for Washington:

I am on my way to Washington for a meeting with our friend, President of the United States Donald Trump.

his is my eighth meeting with him since he was elected President, more than any other international leader. It is a great… pic.twitter.com/uZ13SOo4ez

— Clash Report (@clashreport) July 27, 2026

There's a chance Netanyahu may even appeal to Graham's legacy as well will no doubt seek to convince Trump to stay the course on Iran, and continue the bombing campaign until results that are favorable to Israel are achieved. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/28/2026 - 05:45

Trump Ready For 'Strong Military Action' If Talks Fail, With Saudi Aramco Under Houthi Fire Summary

• Trump pauses strikes: Trump said the US paused attacks to give diplomacy a chance but warned military action will resume if talks fail.
• Iran denies that it pushed for talks: Tehran denied any direct negotiations with Washington, while saying its response remains "attack for attack."
• Saudi Aramco targeted: Houthis claimed fresh strikes on Saudi Aramco facilities, with reports of fires at the critical Abqaiq oil processing complex.
• Fragile pause holds two days: The US-Iran military pause entered a second day as mediators continued backchannel efforts to revive negotiations.

//--> //--> //--> Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Yes 13% · No 88%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Trump Cites 'Deep Talks' - Warns of Expanded Action; Houthis Claim Responsibility for New Aramco Attacks

President Trump has told Axios on Monday that he decided to pause American military attacks on Iran in order to give negotiations another chance, despite there currently being no evidence that Tehran has been urgently requesting them. Trump warned in the comments that war could immediately return with expanded strikes if diplomacy fails.

But it seems there's at least some indirect 'note passing' between capitals going on, even as Saudi Aramco facilities have apparently come under drone assault from Iran-aligned militants in Yemen and Iraq. Axios writes that "The talks are being conducted mainly between Iran and Oman. But Qatar, Pakistan, Egypt and Trump's envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, are actively involved."

"We are in very deep talks with Iran. If they don't work out, we will go back to very strong military action," Trump said in an interview. Again, very deep talks?... The Iranian side is certainly not confirming this, but instead quite the opposite. Tehran has definitively stated its position that there are no talks currently happening. It seems it is merely the mediating powers that are most urgently trying to get the sides back to the negotiating table. Trump said he won't give diplomacy "much time" and that it "either goes fast or not at all."

"All of the people that deal with Iran asked me: 'Don't fire,'" he also said, perhaps alluding to reports like the following:

The top U.S. military commander in the Middle East recommended ending the bombing campaign around the Strait of Hormuz after concluding it reached the limits of its effectiveness, a recommendation that helped shape President Donald Trump's decision to pause strikes against Iran, Axios reported Sunday.

Adm. Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Central Command, advised Pentagon leaders, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the White House last week that two weeks of sustained airstrikes had weakened Iran's ability to threaten commercial shipping through the strategic waterway, multiple sources familiar with the discussions said.

As for new reported strikes on Saudi Aramco facilities (below), and particularly the sprawling Abqaiq site, the Houthis are claiming responsibility.

The last time Abqaiq (in 2019) was attacked by drones, Brent prices rose 20%.

Today, they're down 7% https://t.co/FNfEjBHQRQ

— OilPrice.com (@OilandEnergy) July 27, 2026

Previously Trump vowed to hold Iran directly responsible for any attacks carried out by its proxy groups.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY: Significant amount of **flaring** in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia, including the processing facility of Abqaiq and linked facilities of the Ghawar giant oilfield.

(**Flaring doesn't mean damage. More photos below speculating about potential damage**) pic.twitter.com/5U1e9IaJkS

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) July 27, 2026 Pause Holds After 13 Straight Days of Fighting

Saturday saw a final break in what was 13 consecutive days of tit-for-tat attacks between the United States and Iran, with US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz having confirmed to Fox News Sunday that President Trump is trying to give peace talks "some space".

"He's giving it a little bit of room," Waltz said. "We’ve had both Oman and Iran and a number of our other negotiators engaged at every level, from the most senior levels all the way down to the technical level, over the past few weeks and particularly in the past few days."

via CENTCOM

Walsh has brushed aside emerging reports that US defense interceptor supplies are running low, "I want to be crystal clear: The U.S. military, and I’ve verified this every which way, has everything that it needs to conduct this campaign as effectively as it needs to be," he said. 

But a who's who of top admin and military officials have voiced concerns, including the following:

• The New York Times reported Gen. Dan Caine, chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has privately argued resuming major combat operations against Iran would seriously deplete the antimissile interceptors available to U.S. Central Command (Centcom). The outlet reported the threat to interceptor stockpiles is one of many considerations that have made a return to major combat operations risky. 
• Vice President Vance raised concerns about escalating the war in a meeting with the president at the White House on Friday, CNN reported. 
• Two sources with knowledge of Adm. Brad Cooper's position told Axios that the Centcom commander has recommended stopping the bombing campaign around the Strait of Hormuz because it has reached the limit of its effectiveness.   

An Iranian military official warned Sunday that the country would expand its 'retaliatory' attacks in the region if the US restarts airstrikes. This as a pause has held for two days.

Iran Warns it will Expand Strikes of US Bombing Resumes

"I believe that if the Americans once again fall for the Zionists' deception, or move in line with them, and insist on continuing the war, particularly through airstrikes, geographically this will expand further," Iranian army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia told AFP. Iran is also boasting that it still controls the Strait of Hormuz, and that Washington is "stuck" in the region - and that only Tehran decides when the conflict ends.

Tehran has at the same time once again confirmed there are no negotiations happening. "It’s possible that mediators share messages from the US side about current developments in the region, but at the moment we have no negotiations with the US," Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei told reporters on Monday.

The ARAMCO refinery in Jizan, eastern Saudi Arabia, is still burning more than 2 days after the impact of ballistic missiles launched by the Houtis.

A massive trail of smoke which extends for about 70 km can be seen on Sentinel-2 satellite imagery, 26/07/2026. pic.twitter.com/v05cwhMRjY

— MoloMonitor 🇮🇹 (@MoloWarMonitor) July 27, 2026

He also batted down claims that Iran has requested negotiations - after Trump recently asserted it was begging for talks - as "fake news". Baghaei further explained that Iran won't hesitate to use diplomacy to protect national interests, as cited in Bloomberg. He also described that Iranian and Omani officials held several rounds of "useful" talks about the management of ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.

US strikes and Iranian counterattacks could restart at any moment, given that the US continues to enforce a blockade on Iranian ports.

Still, an unnamed Iranian official separately told Reuters that Tehran's position "remains 'attack ​for attack': if the attacks stop, Iran will also halt its operations. That message has already been conveyed to the United ⁠States."

Reports of KSA's Abqaiq Oil Facility Hit

Meanwhile there are emerging Monday reports that Saudi Aramco's Abqaiq oil processing facility in the kingdom's eastern province is on fire after probable drone and/or missile strikes by the Houthis, or from Iran-aligned Iraqi militias.

Newsquawk reports based on emerging Iranian state media that "Hours ago, the huge Abqaiq oil facility in eastern Saudi Arabia, one of the world's most important oil processing centers, was set on fire in drone and missile attacks, reports Tasnim citing sources and images." Below are the distant images posted by Tasnim on Telegram:

Some various OSINT accounts are also seeking to verify the fires. If confirmed this would be a very serious development, which potential significant impact on the kingdom's crude output. An official response is emerging from Saudi media, as Arab sources report explosions in the kingdom:

Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Defence said it intercepted drones from Iraqi territory that attempted to target oil facilities in the Eastern Province and Riyadh regions, Al Hadath reports

Massive 300 mw fire at Abqaiq refinery and east west pumping station. Unclear what the cause is. This saudi oil facility is on fire.
25.92676, 49.68748 is not at a flaring location pic.twitter.com/0iFh1zhEc0

— Ali (@MerruX) July 27, 2026

International reports commonly estimate that the sprawling Abqaiq facility - as the largest crude oil stabilization and processing facility in the world - has a maximum processing capacity of 7 million barrels per day (bpd) and typically operates at around 4.9 million bpd.

Houthi media has also been highlighting the fires at the site on Monday, following prior alleged Houthi attacks on key Aramco sites in Jizan and Yanbu over the weekend. The group's military spokesperson Yahya Sare identified that these sites were hit, with international press agencies citing, "There is no immediate Saudi confirmation, though footage shows plumes of black smoke rising into the air from the Aramco refinery in Jizan."

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/28/2026 - 05:35

'I Almost Cried' - Documentary Video Trove Shows Lindsey Graham's Joy At Start Of Iran War

Batches of previously unreleased documentary footage give a behind-the-scenes look at the late Sen. Lindsey Graham's work to maneuver the United States into military conflicts on behalf of Israel, and the sheer joy he exuded when President Trump finally brought Graham's long-held dreams of an all-out war on Iran to fruition.  

The video comes from British documentary filmmaker Alex Holder, whom Graham had granted close, ongoing access from 2023 up until Graham's sudden death on July 11. Holder plans to release a documentary called "Lindsey's Game" later this year, but he's just released several samples from his hundreds of hours of footage. They fully cement Graham's reputation as a man who constantly pushed for war and found unparalleled joy in bringing destruction to foreign peoples. 

That latter dimension of Graham's twisted personality can be vividly seen and heard in footage of Graham in his Senate office in late February. He and is staff are watching Trump, on Fox News, bragging that "virtually everything [the Iranians] have has been knocked out."

WATCH: Unreleased documentary footage shows Lindsey Graham extremely happy that Trump finally bombed Iran.

“Look what we’ve done here. I almost cried… How long have we been pushing this?” Graham says after U.S. strikes begin.

Graham also says Trump told him the strikes were… pic.twitter.com/ULQrxwteyl

— Clash Report (@clashreport) July 26, 2026

Positively exuberant that massive US-Israeli attacks on Iran  had just begun, Graham laughs aloud with joy, then gushes to the documentary crew and his own staffers, “Look what we’ve done here. I almost cried. I mean, like, how long have we been pushing this?" Holder replies, "you've been pushing this for years." Graham laughs again and -- sounding just a child on Christmas morning -- says with dewy-eyed disbelief, "Right...it's here!" 

Graham says Trump is enjoying the war too. "I talked to Trump this morning -- he’s jacked. He said, ‘best thing I have ever done.’ He loves blowing stuff up.” We'd be remiss if we didn't remind readers that one of the first things Trump and the US Navy had already blown up in Graham's giddy early hours of the war was an elementary school in southern Iran. More than 150 civilians were killed at the Minab school, most of them girls between age 7 and 12.  

Iranians dig graves for more than 100 schoolgirls killed by US Tomahawk missiles in the opening round of the US-Israeli war on Iran (Iranian Press Center/AFP)

In another remarkable scene, we get to sit in a March 4 Graham phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with whom Graham had actively conspired to maneuver Trump into simultaneously blowing up Iran and blowing up Trump's many promises to break the cycle of never-ending US wars in the Middle East. The call starts with Graham greeting "Bibi" and sycophantically saying how "impressed" he is with Netanyahu. In what sounds like a thinly-veiled boast for the benefit of the documentary's eventual audience, Graham adds, "I'm glad to be your friend." 

That's nauseatingly entertaining, but what makes their ensuing strategy discussion so remarkable is that the infamously bellicose Netanyahu emerges as the relative voice of restraint. Graham tells Netanyahu that he intends to visit Trump in Florida to convince him to join Israel in its war with Lebanon's Hezbollah militia, but Netanyahu diplomatically tells Graham to take it easy.  

UNSEEN FOOTAGE of Lindsey Graham on CALL with Netanyahu revealing plans to LOBBY Trump to BOMB Lebanon

BIBI: Glad you’re my FRIEND

GRAHAM: Going to try to get Trump to join with y'all in Lebanon… WOULD YOU LIKE THAT?

B: Concentrating right now on IRAN

G: Can always go back pic.twitter.com/9Wt0MCuEpq

— RT (@RT_com) July 26, 2026

“We’re concentrating right now on Iran," Netanyahu replies. "If we tell Hezbollah that we’re going all the way... we threaten them, but if we actually do it, then they have no reason not to go all the way against us. And right now that’s not our interest." Perhaps not wanting to fully spoil Graham's dreams of American service members being thrown into another conflict for Israel's benefit, Netanyahu offers, "We can do it later."

Another clip nicely illustrates just how wrong Graham and other promoters of the war on Iran have been about what would be be rapidly accomplished. In early March, as he's being driven across town, Graham tells documentarian Holder that, in "three or four weeks," the United States and Israel would "have them in a spot where they start losing control of some cities" and, with more open Arab involvement in the war, achieve "almost irreversible momentum."

The Iranian regime outlived Graham https://t.co/7KZ3fwbKAN

— 🏴‍☠️ (@calvinfroedge) July 26, 2026

Five months later, no cities have come even remotely close to falling. Instead, outraged over a war of aggression launched on their country on several bogus pretenses, support for the Iranian government has been galvanized. That's been manifested in many ways, but none greater than what may have been the largest funeral in the history of the world, as millions turned out earlier this month for a multi-day state funeral for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Continuing its long-running pattern of violating international norms that put heads of state off-limits -- and furthering its corruption of what little remains of US government geopolitical morality -- Israel collaborated with the United States to kill Khamenei, his daughter, son-in-law, and 14-month-old granddaughter in February's opening assault. 

In other footage reviewed by the Wall Street Journal, Graham voices his disappointment that more Republican politicians aren't stepping up to promote the war on Iran, which quickly became the most unpopular major war in US history -- even less popular than what was observed in the worst polling on the Vietnam War. “Very few people are out selling this war from the administration. I’m shocked,” Graham says. 

The last footage recorded by the documentary crew  -- at a Columbia, SC bagel shop in June -- shows a Graham who's frustrated that Trump has signed a memorandum of understanding that was supposed to be a precursor to a lasting peace. “He’s letting this thing slip away,” Graham said. “I got to go talk to him.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/28/2026 - 05:11

Russia Says Fuel Crisis Is Easing As Refineries Restart

By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

The fuel crisis in Russia has started to ease in recent days as some refineries have restarted operations, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Sunday.

“The situation is gradually stabilizing, a number of oil refineries became operational again. The balance is better now, and the situation at fuel filling stations has considerably improved, including when it comes to supplying agricultural producers,” Russian news agency Interfax quoted the official as saying.

“The situation remains quite tense in some regions, especially in some regions in Siberia. We are effectively resolving issues of fuel supply manually at the federal headquarters with regions and companies,” said Novak, who added that the crisis “situation is temporary.”

Amid peak demand season, Russia has been suffering from gasoline and diesel shortages for more than two months now, as Ukraine’s drone campaign to strike Russian refineries forced many large processing sites offline in the spring and early summer.

Early this month, Russia banned diesel exports to protect its domestic supply, creating a ripple effect on the already tight global diesel market.

Since the spring, Ukraine has been expanding its offensive to cripple supply in Russia by targeting fuel supply routes and vessels, alongside a persistent campaign to hit Russian refineries and force them out of operation.

In recent weeks, Ukrainian attacks turned their focus on targeting Russia-linked vessels in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea, with more than a hundred vessels hit by drones, per the Ukrainian military.

The Russian oil export terminals on the Black Sea have also gone offline in recent days, following Ukrainian attacks.

Russia's largest Black Sea oil export terminal, Sheskharis terminal at Novorossiysk, effectively went offline last week, just days after drone attacks shut down the neighboring Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal, tightening another artery that moves crude onto the global market.

The suspension of the CPC terminal loadings led to Kazakhstan cutting oil production, with output at Chevron’s giant Tengiz field reportedly falling by more than half as storage filled and producers were forced to reduce pipeline flows.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/28/2026 - 05:00

Guess Who? First Foreign Leader Visits Burnham, UK's New Prime Minister

Guess who?... None other than Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has touched down in the UK for his meeting with new UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham.

"Volodymyr, you are the first head of state or government I have congratulated since taking office as Prime Minister. And that is no coincidence. It is intended to send a very clear message: We stand 100% with Ukraine," said Burnham.

The PM only took office last week, and Zelensky marks Burnham's very first international visitor. For Zelensky, Burnham is the fifth British prime minister since the Ukraine war started.

Naturally the first thing Burnham did on the foreign policy front was to pledge his "unwavering support" to Ukraine, "both through the war and beyond."

This is yet more affirmation of Burnham's intent to carry on with and expand on Britain's hawkish policies related to Russia and the Ukraine war which have persisted going back to Boris Johnson at the opening of the February 2022 conflict.

The UK was the earliest out the gate among Western powers to ship heavy weaponry to Kiev, and its support has only grown since.

Burnham while hosting Zelensky announced the UK is sharing the intellectual property of its "Stone Cloak" electronic jammers, which aim to interfere with Russian air defense systems, allowing drones and missiles to better penetrate Russian positions.

"Stone Cloak is the best of homegrown British innovation and proven on the frontline, and it will be vital to protecting our security in both our countries," Burnham said. According to more from the visit:

Burnham said the visit of the Ukrainian president was designed to "send a very clear message" about the UK's continued support.

"To put it simply, Volodymyr, I want you to know that we've got your back, you can count on me and you can count on us. You can count on the UK for as long as it takes," he said at a naval base in Portsmouth on Monday.

Zelensky, meanwhile, said Ukraine's relationship with the UK was "stronger than ever".

Addressing Zelensky, Burnham said: "I am personally with you 100%, Mr President, and I will honour every commitment this country has made to Ukraine in full."

Burnham added that he intended to visit Ukraine "soon" following the "very warm meeting" between the pair.

The prime minister also warned Moscow "should be in no doubt of our resolve" and that the UK would "not backdown until we achieve long lasting and just peace for Ukraine."

Zelensky held his first meeting with Andy Burnham on HMS Queen Elizabeth in Portsmouth. pic.twitter.com/Ojk69Quhtg

— Clash Report (@clashreport) July 27, 2026

Zelensky was hosted for the meeting aboard the aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth docked at Portsmouth on England's south coast. After the Monday events in the UK, Zelensky is headed to Washington to meet with President Trump.

Burnham said the leaders had "talked at length" about Ukraine's need for more interceptors to shoot down inbound Russian missiles, "particularly in terms of Ukraine protecting critical national infrastructure during the winters."

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/28/2026 - 04:15

Erdogan's Ottoman Gambit: Turkey Prepares For New Regional Order

Authored by Chris Macintosh via InternationalMan.com,

Turkey is simultaneously dumping US Treasuries, deepening Russia’s energy embrace, rolling out a tax regime to poach capital fleeing the Gulf… and squaring off against an Israeli political class that now speaks openly of Turkey as an enemy. It’s strategic.

Turkey sold nearly all of its US Treasury holdings in March — cutting them from $16 billion to just $1.8 billion in a single month. The official narrative frames this as emergency reserve management amid a weakening lira and inflation running above 32%. But the mechanics of financial stress don’t explain the direction of travel. Nations don’t systematically dump the debt of their allies.

President Erdogan has been explicit.

In a recent address he cast Turkey as “one of the shining stars of the new era,” invoking the restoration of Ottoman-era influence across the region. Turkey vehemently opposes Israel’s operations in Gaza, and in Ankara’s strategic calculus, Washington and Tel Aviv are increasingly viewed as a single entity. The Treasury sell-off is as much a political signal as a liquidity operation. The Turkish government has smelt blood in the streets and wants to capitalise on the situation.

The energy relationship with Russia tells the same story. Rosatom’s Akkuyu nuclear plant — a build-own-operate project in which Russia retains ownership for decades — just received a further $9 billion in Russian financing, with $4–5 billion deploying in 2026 alone. Turkey has loudly advertised its renewable credentials and a 2053 net-zero target, but Akkuyu sits outside that narrative entirely. When it comes online it will supply roughly 10% of Turkey’s electricity and lock in a structural strategic dependency on Moscow that no solar panel cancels out. Turkey talks diversification; it acts with ruthless pragmatism.

The Iran conflict has handed Erdogan an unexpected opportunity on the capital side.

The disruption to Gulf Cooperation Council financial hubs — Dubai chief among them — has put mobile, internationally structured wealth back in play. Investors who relocated to the UAE for zero-tax treatment are now reassessing. Into that gap, Turkey’s parliament on recently passed Erdogan’s flagship fiscal incentive package — nine permanent structural reforms that together represent one of the most aggressive capital attraction plays of the decade:

1. 0% income tax on foreign earnings for 20 years

2. 1% inheritance tax on all wealth

3. Full citizenship from $400,000

4. 2% one-off tax to repatriate overseas assets, no questions asked

5. 9% corporate tax — permanent

6. 0% tax on trading through Turkey

7. Business registration in one day via AI-assisted process

8. Machinery and equipment imports: duty-free, 0% VAT

9. Mortgage overhaul: 10% down payment, terms up to 25 years

The last item deserves particular attention. The mortgage reform isn’t just a financing tweak — it unlocks millions of first-time Turkish buyers who were previously priced out of the market.

That domestic demand surge lands at precisely the moment foreign capital begins flowing in under the new tax regime. Turkey’s residential real estate market was already undersupplied. The combination of newly bankable local buyers and inbound international capital chasing a low-tax domicile points to a meaningful price cycle ahead — at minimum in Istanbul and the coastal cities where foreign demand concentrates.

The architect of Istanbul’s financial hub ambitions goes back to at least 2009, when former Deputy PM Nazim Ekren was championing Atasehir as the anchor of Eurasia’s financial capital. Aran Hawker, who provided trading infrastructure to Istanbul’s exchanges in 2011, expects wealth repositioned not only from the GCC but from North America, Europe, and the UK — from people “not happy with political situations in those respective countries.” Istanbul Finance Centre transit trade income is now fully exempt from corporate tax through 2047.

The Greater Israel Shadow

Beneath the fiscal and energy calculations runs a darker strategic undercurrent — one that Ankara is acutely aware of and Western analysts largely ignore.

The expansion of Israeli strategic ambition across the region, accelerated by the Gaza operation and the broader Zionist maximalist project, now has Turkey explicitly in its crosshairs.

The Bosphorus — the narrow strait connecting the Black Sea to the Mediterranean, through which a significant share of global energy and grain trade passes — is not simply a Turkish asset. It is one of the most strategically significant chokepoints on earth. Control of it, or the ability to influence who controls it, is a prize that serious regional powers do not ignore.

Israeli political figures have begun to speak with unusual candour about Turkey as a threat rather than a competitor. Israeli Minister of Culture and Sports Miki Zohar stated plainly:

“We must begin to treat Turkey as an enemy state.”

Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett went further, framing Turkey in the same breath as Iran:

“A new Turkish threat is emerging. We must act in different ways, but simultaneously against the threat from Tehran and against the hostility from Ankara.”

These are not fringe voices. When a sitting minister and a former head of government use the language of simultaneous threat management for both Iran and Turkey, they are signalling a strategic posture — one that has obvious implications for NATO cohesion, for the future of the Bosphorus as a neutral passage, and for the stability of the broader region.

Erdogan reads this clearly. The deepening of Russian energy ties, the rejection of US debt, the cultivation of Ottoman-sphere influence — these are not reactions to Gaza alone. They are pre-positioning against a regional order that Turkey now judges to be hostile to its existence as a sovereign power.

The Greater Israel project, in its maximalist form, envisions territorial and political influence stretching from the Nile to the Euphrates. Turkey sits at the northern edge of that strategic horizon. Control or destabilisation of the Bosphorus would fundamentally alter the balance of naval power in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Black Sea — a prize of the highest order for any power seeking regional hegemony. Whether or not one assigns full credibility to the maximalist reading, the signals from Israeli political leadership are sufficient for Ankara to treat the threat as real and plan accordingly.

A NATO member that sells US debt, builds Russian nuclear plants, courts capital fleeing Western disorder, and now faces explicit identification as an enemy state by Israeli leadership is not drifting. Rather, it’s repositioning on every front simultaneously.

The picture that emerges is coherent and accelerating….

Turkey controls the Bosphorus. It borders the Middle East, maintains NATO’s second-largest military, and imports the energy that geopolitical conflict makes more expensive — hence the inflation, the rate pressure, and the reserve burn. But Erdogan’s response is not to seek Western reassurance. It is to deepen the Russian energy anchor, signal alignment with the Global South’s reading of the Gaza conflict, position Istanbul as the beneficiary of Gulf instability and Western political dysfunction, and quietly fortify against a regional order that now names Turkey an adversary. The Treasury dump is one data point in a larger sequence. The Ottoman ambition is the frame. And the clock is moving faster than most investors realise.

*  *  *

Turkey’s repositioning is part of a much larger shift now reshaping the global economic and political order. In our special report, Clash of the Systems: Thoughts on Investing at a Unique Point in Time, a contrarian money manager explains the forces driving this transition, the risks they pose to your wealth and personal freedom, and how you can position yourself to stay one step ahead. Get instant access to the special report here.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/28/2026 - 03:30

Kazakhstan Restarts CPC Oil Exports After Week-Long Black Sea Shutdown

Kazakhstan has resumed crude exports through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) on Monday after the operator reopened its Black Sea marine terminal and resumed accepting crude from producers following a week-long suspension triggered by drone attacks, Kazakhstan’s Astana Times reported. 

Two tankers were loading crude from the Chevron-led Tengizchevroil project at the Novorossiysk terminal, while producers resumed delivering oil into the CPC pipeline system, Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry said according to OilPrice.com. The ministry added that export operations would continue subject to ongoing security assessments.

The reopening follows last week’s suspension of crude intake and tanker loadings at the terminal after repeated drone attacks on vessels operating at or near the facility. Kazakhstan subsequently ordered producers to curb output to prevent storage facilities from filling after access to the export system was cut off.

Industry data cited by Reuters showed Kazakhstan’s oil and gas condensate production fell to 133,200 metric tons, or about 1 million barrels per day, on Sunday, down from an average 2.16 million bpd in June.

CPC separately confirmed pipeline operations resumed at 12:28 p.m. Moscow time. The ministry did not indicate how quickly production would return to normal levels.

The 1,500-kilometer CPC pipeline transports crude from Kazakhstan’s giant Tengiz oilfield across southern Russia to the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk and carries more than 80% of Kazakhstan’s crude exports. International producers including Chevron and ExxonMobil rely on the route to move Tengiz production to global markets.

The Chevron-chartered Suezmax tanker Asia was also positioned at the terminal on Monday, according to LSEG vessel-tracking data cited by Reuters. Chevron said it continues to monitor the situation at CPC but declined to comment further, the company told Reuters directly. 

The disruption briefly removed more than 1 million bpd of Kazakh production from the market, adding another supply risk as global oil flows remain under pressure from disruptions affecting both the Black Sea and Middle East shipping routes.  

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/28/2026 - 02:45

The 'Southern Front' Of The Ukrainian Conflict Is Heating Up

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

The most recent phase of the Ukrainian Conflict has been characterized by the “war of attrition” that the US has been waging against Russia through Ukraine after Trump decided to “escalate to de-escalate”.

This has thus far taken the form of drone strikes against energy infrastructure, online retailers, and maritime shipping in the Black, Azov, and now even the Caspian Seas.

It’s this last-mentioned aspect that forms the basis of the present analysis following Ukraine’s weekend strikes on targets in the Caspian.

According to Ukrainian sources, their forces struck an offshore oil extraction platform, a cargo ship and cargo vessel that were sanctioned for their alleged role in the Russian-Iranian arms trade, and a missile boat. If confirmed, then this represents the most eastward expansion yet of Ukraine’s campaign against Russia’s maritime shipping after attacking its Black Sea Fleet over the years and recently causing enough chaos to suspend shipping in the Sea of Azov, which is linked to the Caspian by the Volga-Don Canal.

Of relevance, some of the oil that Russia produces there is shipped across that canal en route to Crimea and the global market, so targeting Caspian oil extraction platforms and suspending shipping in the Sea of Azov are part of a larger strategy. The plan appears to be to slash the Kremlin’s revenue, cause domestic fuel shortages with a view towards provoking political unrest, and exacerbate the attempted drone-enforced “blockade” of Crimea. This broad “southern front” is therefore very significant.

Casual observers from the West might thus be under the impression that the Ukrainian Conflict’s overall dynamics have shifted in Kiev’s favor as a result of the above-mentioned developments, but they’d do well to know that Russia has drastically ramped up its strikes against Ukraine’s Black Sea infrastructure.

This recently resulted in Ukraine suspending shipping across that naval corridor for the first time since 2023 in the most important achievement thus far of Russia’s new “systematic strike” campaign.

While Odessa remains out of Moscow’s reach, and there was never any attempt to capture it since the special operation began, the recent attacks against its infrastructure are clearly meant to demilitarize it (at least for now). After all, it’s from Odessa that Ukraine launches its naval drones against Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, and it’s also where Ukraine receives some of its maritime arms imports. It’s therefore arguably long overdue for Russia to take its port out of operation as well as all of Ukraine’s other Black Sea ones.

The radical intensification of the southern front could lead to one of three outcomes:

1. the situation continues to worsen;

2. a partial ceasefire is reached for ending attacks against ships and maritime infrastructure (though it’s unclear whether it would apply to Crimea);

3. or NATO gets involved.

As regards the last-mentioned, it’s the least likely but still can’t be ruled out after Turkiye committed to providing maritime security guarantees for Ukraine, which could hypothetically take the form of “escort missions”.

The larger trend is that US-backed Ukraine’s newfound focus on targeting Russia’s “soft underbelly” in this new “war of attrition” has resulted in its own “soft underbelly” being targeted as well as a form of (arguably long-overdue) reciprocal retaliation that’s making the broader Black Sea region a “no-go zone”.

The heightened stakes associated with this latest phase of the conflict suggest that an even greater escalation might be inevitable, but it’s still possible that this could be delayed, if not outright averted.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/28/2026 - 02:00

How Total Surveillance Conquered The Last Sanctuary Of Human Privacy

Authored by Milan Adams via Preppgroup,

The following investigation contains verified facts, classified document references, and eyewitness testimony that some readers may find deeply disturbing. We have cross-referenced all statistical claims with official government disclosures, Freedom of Information Act releases, and whistleblower documentation. However, certain programs referenced operate under classifications beyond public scrutiny, and specific capabilities described remain officially denied by the agencies named. The author has chosen to present this material without the sanitizing filter of institutional caution. Reader discretion is advised—not for graphic content, but for the psychological impact of recognizing one’s own position within the architecture described. What follows is not conspiracy theory. It is Tuesday. It is your morning commute. It is the air you breathe.

Your bedroom has been listening for years. Not metaphorically—quite literally. While you slept, while you loved, while you whispered secrets to partners in the dark, the devices you invited inside for “convenience” were recording, analyzing, transmitting. That smart speaker on your nightstand heard you breathe. Your WiFi router mapped your movements through walls. The phone charging beside your pillow tracked your REM cycles, your midnight tossing, your 3 AM anxieties. All of it flowed through fiber optic veins into climate-controlled bunkers where analysts sift through domestic lives like archaeologists studying extinct species—except you’re very much alive, still walking, still paying monthly subscriptions for the privilege of being monitored.

This is the unvarnished reality of existence in 2026: privacy didn’t merely erode—it was systematically dismantled, commodified, and fed into machine learning systems that predict your behavior before you conceive the thought.

Eight billion souls now exist beneath an invisible dome of perpetual observation, each breath monitored, each heartbeat catalogued, each flicker of dissent intercepted before consciousness fully forms it.

Let’s examine the architecture of this prison with clear eyes:

•  4.9 million CCTV cameras surveil the United Kingdom alone - one mechanical eye for every eleven humans

•  300+ times the average Londoner is captured on camera during a routine commute

•  160 million license plate reads logged annually in the United States, creating travel histories precise enough to reconstruct infidelity, political meetings, religious observance, medical visits

•  0 - the number of ways to effectively opt out

Numbness serves the system.

These figures are designed to anaesthetize, to render horror mundane through sheer scale. So consider instead the texture of living under permanent scrutiny.

Morning breaks pre-monitored. Smart mattresses—marketed innocuously for “sleep optimization”—have already transmitted heart rate variability, respiratory patterns, sexual activity frequency, and parasympathetic nervous system indicators to cloud servers before your feet touch the floor. Bathroom scales identify you by weight distribution patterns as unique as genetic codes. Toothbrushes log duration and technique. Coffee makers timestamp your caffeine consumption. Refrigerators track caloric intake and dietary restrictions. Each data point seems trivial in isolation. Combined, they construct behavioral predictions accurate enough to anticipate your mood, your destination, your risk level before you’ve consciously decided to leave the house.

By 8:47 AM, probability calculations assess your psychological state. Predictive models anticipate where you’ll travel. Risk scores fluctuate based on deviations from your statistical norms—sleeping longer suggesting depression markers, skipping breakfast indicating financial stress, checking news before social media revealing political engagement levels.

Step outside and the grid tightens. Modern vehicles contain fifty to one hundred microprocessors, three hundred-plus sensors, and mandatory cellular connectivity that transforms automobiles into mobile surveillance platforms. Event Data Recorders capture speed, braking force, seatbelt usage, steering angle, and G-forces thirty seconds preceding any “incident”—though incident remains deliberately undefined, and data retrieval requires neither warrant nor notification in most jurisdictions. Drive through a toll booth, pass a traffic camera, park in a monitored lot, and you’ve added coordinates to a permanent travel log reconstructing your movements across years.

Public transit offers no refuge. Facial recognition payment systems in Moscow, Shenzhen, and expanding “democratic” pilot programs process biometric identities faster than card swipes, logging timestamps and travel patterns into permanent archives. London’s Oyster cards create movement histories retrievable by law enforcement without judicial oversight. WiFi tracking in subway stations identifies phones despite WiFi appearing “disabled”—devices emit probe requests every forty to one hundred milliseconds, broadcasting unique MAC addresses that create location trails accurate to meters.

Arrive at work and enter the observation laboratory. Keycard entry logs timestamps and precise locations. Computer systems record keystroke dynamics—typing rhythms as identifying as handwritten signatures. Corporate networks proxy all traffic through monitoring systems capturing URL visits, message content, download activity, duration metrics. Video analytics perform gait analysis, identifying individuals by walking patterns even when faces remain obscured. Elevator weight sensors combined with camera footage determine occupancy and identity.

Lunch breaks generate surveillance gold. Mobile payment apps—Venmo, Cash App, Apple Pay—create financial surveillance networks exceeding any tax authority’s historical capabilities, documenting transactions, social networks, relationship intimacy levels. Location data harvested from apps with “background refresh” capabilities reveals restaurant choices, duration of stays, table companions, subsequent destinations. Pharmacy visits trigger health condition flags. Political rally attendance generates risk score adjustments.

Return home to observation posts you installed voluntarily. Smart doorbells—Ring, Nest, Arlo—record four hundred million video clips monthly, creating neighborhood surveillance networks accessible to 2,014 police departments through “partnership” agreements requiring neither warrant nor homeowner consent. Amazon’s Neighbors app encourages residents to flag “suspicious” individuals—often coded language for racial profiling—feeding machine learning systems training data on human suspicion patterns.

Domestic spaces have transformed into comprehensive sensor networks. Smart speakers record ambient audio during “wake word” activation, with documented cases of accidental activation and human contractor review of private conversations including intimate moments and medical discussions. Smart thermostats track occupancy patterns, energy usage revealing daily schedules. Smart locks record entry and exit patterns shared with “authorized partners” including law enforcement. Smart appliances monitor usage patterns and “anomalous behavior.”

Television watches back. Samsung, LG, and Vizio models collect viewing habits, search queries, voice commands, and in documented cases transmit screenshots of displayed content every second. Streaming services build psychological profiles from consumption patterns—depression indicators from binge-watching metrics, political orientation from documentary selections, cognitive patterns from pause and rewind behaviors.

Even sleep provides no darkness. Trackers monitor REM cycles, apnea episodes, restlessness. Smart home systems adjust temperatures based on detected occupancy. Security systems log movement patterns. And in classified facilities processing daily harvests, quantum computers decrypt yesterday’s “secure” communications, correlate metadata patterns, construct association maps linking you to contacts of contacts, predict behaviors not yet conceived.

The smartphone remains surveillance engineering’s crowning achievement. Sixty-three percent of humanity carries tracking beacons exceeding anything totalitarian regimes of previous centuries imagined. GPS provides location within three meters. Accelerometers reveal physical activity, health status, emotional state through movement patterns. Gyroscopes map spatial orientation. Barometers calculate altitude changes identifying building floors. Microphones activate remotely without indicator lights—Snowden’s disclosures confirmed this capability. Cameras prove similarly accessible. Bluetooth scans identify nearby devices creating social network maps. WiFi mapping enables indoor positioning accurate to one to two meters.

Apps transform these sensors into comprehensive surveillance tools. Weather apps sell location permissions to data brokers. Flashlight apps access cameras and microphones as documented malware vectors. Social media harvests contact lists, message content, photo metadata. Navigation apps log every destination, route, duration, speed. Dating apps reveal intimate preferences, location patterns, communication content. Fitness apps transmit health data to insurance providers and employers. Banking apps create financial surveillance networks. Every “free” service monetizes behavioral prediction.

Encryption offers theater, not protection. PRISM and upstream collection programs—XKEYSCORE, TEMPORA, MUSCULAR—operate at infrastructure levels tapping fiber optic cables, compelling corporate cooperation through National Security Letters (gag-ordered demands preventing disclosure), and storing encrypted communications for future decryption when quantum computing renders current standards obsolete. Utah’s NSA Data Center processes yottabytes—storage capacity so vast it could contain all human communication for millennia.

“Incidental collection”—the euphemism for capturing domestic communications during foreign surveillance—creates permanent records subject to “minimization procedures” requiring neither deletion nor notification. FBI “backdoor searches” of Section 702 collection data numbered 3.4 million queries in 2021 alone—warrantless searches of content collected without warrant.

Stingray devices—cell site simulators deployed by law enforcement nationwide—mimic cellular towers forcing all phones within range to connect and reveal International Mobile Subscriber Identity numbers, location data, communication metadata. Baltimore police admitted using Stingrays 4,300 times without warrants. The FBI requires agencies signing nondisclosure agreements before receiving devices—secrecy prioritized over constitutional protections.

Predictive policing algorithms—PredPol, HunchLab—claim to forecast crime locations. In practice, feedback loops emerge: policing data from over-policed neighborhoods trains algorithms predicting crime in those same neighborhoods, justifying continued over-policing. Risk assessment scores determine bail, sentencing, parole—algorithmic calculations of “dangerousness” based on demographic correlations rather than individual behavior, encoding systemic bias into mathematical objectivity.

Social media operates as voluntary confession on industrial scale. Facebook’s 2012 “emotional contagion” experiment manipulated 689,003 users’ news feeds to study mood alteration. Twitter creates influence maps identifying “disruptors.” Instagram’s image recognition catalogs objects, locations, relationships. TikTok’s data collection—including keystroke patterns and clipboard content—raises national security concerns while demonstrating surveillance capitalism’s global reach.

The “Internet of Things” completes domestic colonization. Smart mattresses, toilets, mirrors, windows—all feeding data streams into centralized processing. DNA testing services—23andMe, AncestryDNA, GEDmatch—have provided law enforcement access to genetic profiles of millions who never consented to law enforcement use. Familial searching creates genetic surveillance networks implicating entire family lines. China’s compulsory DNA collection from Uyghur populations represents ethnic surveillance at the genomic level.

Financial surveillance operates through Suspicious Activity Reports requiring banks to report transactions exceeding $10,000 and increasingly patterns below thresholds. The Bank Secrecy Act and PATRIOT Act created financial tracking infrastructure monitoring every significant transaction. Cryptocurrency exchanges now require identity verification linking blockchain to real identities. The “war on cash” promotes digital payments creating comprehensive spending records.

Biometric databases expand relentlessly. India’s Aadhaar contains 1.3 billion citizens’ fingerprints, iris scans, facial photographs. China’s national biometric database integrates facial recognition, DNA, voiceprints, gait analysis. The FBI’s Next Generation Identification contains 117 million fingerprints, 52 million facial images.

Historical “conspiracy theories” proved insufficiently paranoid. Documents confirm: MKULTRA’s mind control experiments (1953-1973) involving unwitting subjects. COINTELPRO’s surveillance and disruption of political organizations (1956-1971). Operation CHAOS’s CIA monitoring of domestic anti-war activists. The FBI’s blackmail of Martin Luther King Jr. The NSA’s LOVEINT—analysts using surveillance to stalk romantic interests.

Neuroweapons research explores “remote influencing”—microwave auditory effects (the “Frey effect”), electromagnetic field manipulation, directed energy systems. Whether deployed or merely researched, such capabilities blur boundaries between physical and psychological warfare.

Corporate-state fusion creates totalitarian infrastructure without totalitarian intent. Data brokers—Acxiom, Experian, LexisNexis, Palantir—compile thousands of data points per individual, selling comprehensive profiles to government agencies, employers, insurers, political campaigns.

Opting out proves functionally impossible. Living without identification excludes participation in financial systems, housing, employment, healthcare. “Dumb” phones still connect to cellular networks providing location tracking. Cash transactions face increasing restrictions.

Psychological impacts manifest regardless of awareness. Self-censorship becomes automatic when surveillance is assumed. Creativity requires risk, experimentation, deviation—precisely behaviors flagged by predictive algorithms. Intimacy requires privacy; privacy requires confidence in unobserved space.

Legal protections lag technology by decades. The Third Party Doctrine holds that information conveyed to third parties receives no Fourth Amendment protection. Geofence warrants request location data for all devices in specified areas. Keyword warrants identify users who searched specific terms.

International frameworks offer no protection. The Five Eyes alliance shares intelligence while circumventing domestic restrictions. The 14 Eyes expands this network. Bilateral agreements create global surveillance networks.

Resistance strategies—encryption, anonymity networks, secure systems, Faraday cages, cash, offline communication—provide partial mitigation but fail against comprehensive surveillance. Metadata defeats content encryption. Device compromise defeats endpoint security.

Trajectory points toward total integration: central bank digital currencies enabling complete transaction monitoring; biometric ID requirements for internet access; AI-powered pre-crime prediction; social credit scoring integrating financial, social, political metrics; brain-computer interfaces creating direct neural monitoring.

What remains? Perhaps only recognition that surveillance stalking represents not aberration but essence—the logical culmination of technologies enabling observation, bureaucracies requiring information, power’s eternal expansion. Horror lies not in the watching but in the watched trading privacy for convenience, security, connection, entertainment. The panopticon’s genius was never the tower’s visibility but prisoners’ internalization of surveillance.

Somewhere in data centers humming with cooling fans and quantum processors, your profile grows more detailed, your predictions more precise, your autonomy more illusory. The cage was built while you slept. You woke inside it. You may never leave.

AND NOW… YOU ARE MARKED. PERMANENTLY.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/27/2026 - 23:25

Awkward: Trump Hails 'Tremendous' Ally Turkey, Knocks Israel Before Hosting Netanyahu

Less than 24 hours before Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to meet with the US President at the White House Tuesday, and Trump not-so-subtly put the Israeli leader in his place while fielding questions from reporters aboard Air Force One.

Trump was asked about Netanyahu's very public and long-stated opposition to Washington selling F-35s to Turkey. Trump responded by firmly stating, "Nobody tells me what we should be selling or not. Turkey has been a tremendous ally."

He added in the remarks, "Turkey’s not a big fan of Israel, not a great fan of Bibi. But they’ve been great for me." He also repeatedly praised Turkey as a great ally of the United States.

It comes after Trump strongly hinted while at the annual NATO summit in Ankara earlier this month that he would approve the F-35 sale, though it would likely invite serious Congressional pushback.

This is not going to be a welcome development for Netanyahu, especially given that with the full context of the comments, Trump was highly praising Turkey while seeming to put down Israel:

"And frankly, we're being very nice to a lot of countries that would not survive without us. You know who wouldn't survive without us? Israel...

...Turkey has been a great ally, for me. Nobody tells me what we should be selling. Turkey is not a big fan of Israel, you know that, right? And not a big fan of Bibi."

Interestingly in the same thought he admitted Turkey is a bitter enemy of Israel, but still chose to praise Turkey while quipping that Israel wouldn't be able to stand on its own without support from Washington.

"Prime Minister Netanyahu opposes sending the F-35s to Turkey..."@POTUS: "Nobody tells me what we should be selling or not. Turkey has been a tremendous ally." pic.twitter.com/8gSzavJ6Ce

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) July 27, 2026

Trump did say that the US and Israel align on Iran policy, mostly at least. "We have a little difference but [are] pretty close," Trump told reporters.

On the Iranians, Trump said: "They want to meet, and we’re meeting. There’s a chance we can make a deal. But without what we did, they wouldn’t even be talking to us." Of course, it's long been known that the Israelis are not in favor of talks, given the possibility it could end without the total dismantlement of Iran's nuclear program.

"Bibi is coming here, he'll tell ya..."

Trump:

We have been very nice to a lot of countries that wouldn't survive without us.

You know who wouldn't survive without us? Israel. pic.twitter.com/jN8SVNXjLV

— Clash Report (@clashreport) July 27, 2026

Trump had earlier this month after a July 4th call with Netanyahu said of 'Bibi': "We get along very good. [Netanyahu] knows who the boss is," he told Axios. All the while, Turkey's Erdogan has been locked in a war of words and steadily ratcheting exchange of threats with Israeli officials. That Trump should so openly embrace Turkey and Erdogan has been felt as a slap in the face for Israeli leadership.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/27/2026 - 23:00

Houthi Threats Force Saudi Crude Tanker Onto Suez Route To Asia

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

The Houthi threats to shipping in the Red Sea and its chokepoint, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, have forced at least one oil tanker carrying Saudi crude to Asia to choose the much longer route through the Suez Canal, the Mediterranean, and around Africa.

The supertanker Olympic Luck, partially laden with Saudi crude at Yanbu on the Red Sea, transited the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean late on Sunday, according to shipping data monitored by Bloomberg.

The U-turn from Bab el-Mandeb indicates that some tanker owners aren’t willing to risk crossing southward into the Arabian Sea on the much shorter route to Asia, as the Iran-aligned Houthis have threatened – and struck – Saudi tankers in the Red Sea in recent days.

The Greece-flagged Greece-owned Olympic Luck is signaling an unspecified location in Asia, according to shipping fixtures seen by Bloomberg.

Other tankers continue to transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, but in numbers that are the lowest in months, various ship-tracking services showed this weekend.

Traffic through Bab el-Mandeb has materially slowed, and some vessel owners have their tankers move northward in the Red Sea toward the Suez Canal. The Suez-Africa route to Asia makes the journey about a month longer than if tankers travel through Bab el-Mandeb.

Last week, a Denmark-flagged oil and chemical products tanker, the Torm Innovation, turned away from Bab el-Mandeb and moved north toward the Suez Canal. The tanker, which had loaded products at Yanbu, was in the East Mediterranean early on Monday, shipping data on MarineTraffic showed.

Despite the reduced traffic through Bab el-Mandeb, “Saudi crude has not stopped moving. It has bifurcated,” maritime intelligence firm Windward said on Sunday.

“Yanbu port has transitioned to entirely AIS-dark tanker operations at berth as vessels shield against a Houthi hit list,” it added.

Saudi Arabia has established a working alternative export route via the SUMED pipeline in Egypt and around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa, adding cost and voyage time but demonstrating the market’s adaptability, Windward noted.

Chinese-linked cargo continues transiting Bab al-Mandeb under the Houthis’ established carve-out, the firm said.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/27/2026 - 22:35

Feds Charge Atlanta Man Who Gave Border Agents 'Self-Destruct' Password For Phone

A federal judge in Atlanta is weighing whether to throw out the evidence in what appears to be the first US prosecution of a traveler over a phone's built-in "duress password" - a privacy feature that erases a device when the wrong code is entered.

Samuel Tunick, an Atlanta resident and US citizen, was charged under 18 U.S.C. § 2232(a), which makes it a crime to destroy or damage property to prevent the government from seizing it. The offense carries up to five years. He has pleaded not guilty and is seeking to suppress the government's evidence, arguing the search and seizure that produced it were unlawful. A ruling is not expected before the end of October.

Tunick was returning from vacation on January 24, 2025, when Customs and Border Protection pulled him into secondary inspection at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport. According to his motion to suppress, agents demanded access to his phone on the stated suspicion that it contained child exploitation imagery, without offering evidence to support that suspicion. They told him they did not need a warrant because he had not yet crossed into the country - the government's long-standing position that arriving travelers are not on US soil until admitted.

His lawyers say he asked for an attorney repeatedly and was refused, and that he was never advised of his rights.

Tunick provided a passcode. An officer entered it. The screen went dark, flashed repeatedly, and the device restarted with its contents gone. Agents seized the phone anyway and told him he was free to enter the country.

The indictment, returned in the Northern District of Georgia, alleges he knowingly destroyed, damaged, wasted, disposed of or otherwise acted to delete the phone's digital contents in order to impair the government's lawful authority to take the property into its custody. The document contains the typo "Untied States Code."

At a hearing last Monday, a Justice Department attorney and the agents who ran the stop characterized the encounter as an ordinary airport inspection. They were looking for "anything that's prohibited," CBP officer Larry Findley testified.

What Preceded The Stop

Three hours before Tunick's plane landed, a Homeland Security agent circulated an email carrying his name and photograph and stating that he was under investigation for suspected terrorism activities. It went to agents on CBP's tactical terrorism response team and to an officer with the FBI's Atlanta joint terrorism task force, according to The Guardian, which first reported the case.

Tunick's attorneys argue the child-exploitation rationale was a pretext, and that the real interest was his association with Defend the Atlanta Forest, the movement that spent years opposing the police training campus known as Cop City. The state's own sprawling racketeering case against 61 people tied to that movement was dismissed last year by a Fulton County judge, with the Georgia attorney general appealing.

CBP's tactical terrorism response teams were created in 2015 and have operated with almost no public visibility. The ACLU sued the agency in 2019 seeking records on the units, describing them as highly secretive teams that target, detain and interrogate travelers.

GrapheneOS

Tunick's attorneys have confirmed his Google Pixel was running GrapheneOS, a hardened Android replacement stripped of Google's tracking components. Among its options is a duress PIN - a second code, indistinguishable from the real one, that triggers an irreversible wipe. No warning, no confirmation prompt, nothing to give it away. Whoever types it cannot know what it is doing until it is finished.

GrapheneOS documents the feature as intended for people who may be forced to unlock a device, naming journalists, activists and travelers facing border searches - and warns in the same documentation that a triggered wipe could be treated in some jurisdictions as destruction of evidence. 

Matthew Dodge, an assistant federal public defender on Tunick's team, called the use of the statute in this context incredibly rare. Runa Sandvik, who runs the security consultancy Granitt, said she had never seen a case built on a duress password, though she has spent years walking journalists and activists through the scenario. Christophe Boutry, a French cybersecurity and surveillance specialist, said the prosecution mirrors what is already unfolding in France and Spain, where authorities have run into GrapheneOS on the phones of journalists, lawyers and political opponents. His argument is one of ownership: the device belongs to the user, and the state does not get to dictate how it is configured.

Unfriendly Venue?

The Eleventh Circuit may be the government's biggest advantage in the case. In United States v. Touset (2018) it held that border agents need no suspicion of any kind to search a device, forensic or manual, reasoning that if none is required to open a suitcase, none should be required for a phone. In the Fourth or Ninth Circuits the pretext argument would carry real weight - both require reasonable suspicion for forensic searches, and the Ninth confines border phone searches to digital contraband rather than general evidence of domestic crime. In Atlanta, the defense has to attack the scope of the search rather than the absence of grounds for it.

The statute, meanwhile, is also narrower than it looks. Section 2232(a) requires impairing the government's lawful authority to seize such property. Lawfulness is an element of the offense, not merely a suppression question, so an unlawful seizure could put the conduct outside the statute altogether. 

A Fourth Amendment win may not end the case regardless. The alleged offense occurred in the agents' presence, in response to the demand the defense says was unlawful, and courts generally hold that a new crime committed in reaction to an illegal search is not suppressible.

The Fifth Amendment may be the more promising route, because the act constituting the offense is speaking a passcode. If that was compelled in custody without warnings or counsel, the utterance itself may be suppressible. There is a wrinkle in Tunick's favor: the same circuit that is least protective on border searches is among the more protective on compelled decryption, having held in 2012 that forced decryption can be testimonial. Prosecutors will argue that secondary inspection is not custody and that "unlock it or we keep it" is not legal compulsion.

Then there is intent. Officers typed the code, not Tunick, so the government must prove purpose rather than infer it from a physical act - and the defense has pointedly declined to concede he meant to wipe anything. The evidence that a duress code was configured at all lived on the device that now holds no data.

We'll be keeping an eye on this one...

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/27/2026 - 22:10

Utility Profits In The Crosshairs Amid Affordability Concerns

By Herman Trabish of UtilityDive,Last month, protesters angry over high electricity costs disrupted a Las Vegas conference of executives for the nation’s biggest investor-owned utilities — a vivid example of growing public outrage that has forced the industry to again defend their legally guaranteed profit margins. 

As affordability concerns increase political pressure, several states have taken steps to lower utilities’ return on equity, either through regulatory or legislative action. Consumer advocates say these measures are long overdue, while utilities say suppressing their ROE could impact their credit rating, which would carry over into higher customer costs. 

It is possible the combination of how vital electricity has become in the 21st century and its rising cost in the 2020s could lead to a turning point at this moment in the acceptable level of utility profits, experts told Utility Dive.

In a potentially pivotal and soon-to-be-decided Maryland rate case, utility executives said the matter should be left to state regulators, while consumer advocates said regulators should lower the utility’s profits closer to its costs for serving its customers. 

Utilities in the hot seat

Affordability has become a more pressing issue as national average electricity prices have outpaced inflation, and many people blame utilities. A March Pew Research poll found 85% of respondents saw utilities “wanting to make more money” as a reason for increased home energy prices. 

The impact of profits is not only a matter of public perception. According to a series of reports from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, prices charged by investor-owned utilities, which represent about 70% of national electricity sales, are higher and have risen faster compared to public utilities without strong profit motives.

The reports also found that IOU revenue requests are higher than they have been in decades – totaling $18 billion last year – and that over the past five years, regulators have approved, on average, 64% of the dollar value of these increases, compared to an average of 52% over the previous two decades. 

Energy affordability concerns have also merged with popular backlash to data centers and their huge resource demands. The resentment has stirred up a large, receptive audience for consumer advocates questioning the regulated utility profit model.

Utility profit margins are set by regulators around the country and averaged 9.7% in 2025, while fluctuating from 9% to 10.5%, according to Synapse Energy Economics. Unregulated economic sectors have ROEs within, far above, and far below that range, but do not have the obligation to serve and are not required to seek approval for their profits like regulated utilities, according to the Regulatory Assistance Project’s 2016 Guide. 

ROEs are a matter for state utility regulators, said Dani Marx, spokesperson for the Edison Electric Institute, the trade group for U.S. investor-owned utilities and utility holding groups.

“Independent state regulators work through open and transparent proceedings to evaluate infrastructure needs,” Marx said. 

Utility infrastructure often includes “an equity component, including a return on equity, to attract sufficient investment to fund these projects,” she added.

In December, California regulators lowered the ROE for its three largest investor-owned utilities by 0.3 percentage points each. Several states, including Pennsylvania, are weighing legislation to tie utility ROE to 10-year Treasury bonds, among other reforms.

ROEs get political

Some states, like Maryland, have begun chipping away at utility returns by passing laws requiring power companies to join regional transmission organizations in order to do away with so-called adder – additional ROE the company earns on transmission for being a voluntary member. 

Meanwhile, state leaders in Virginia, New Jersey and Pennsylvania have asked regulators to consider rate requests carefully, signaling they may take more direct action in rate cases. 

The issue has also gained momentum in Congress. Rep. Greg Casar, D-Texas, has gathered more than 20 cosponsors for the Lowering Utility Bills Act (H.R. 8568). The bill would require a utility to “calculate the return on equity at the lowest return on equity in an established range of reasonableness” determined by its regulators.

Reducing utility profits “saves all electricity users money on their bills,” said Mark Ellis, a former chief of strategy and economics with Sempra who now works as an independent consultant. 

In his opinion, today’s utility profits are “an unjust enrichment of utility investors at the expense of customers,” he added.

Utilities argue their profit margins must be set high enough to attract capital at low interest rates, which saves their ratepayers money in the long run while allowing utilities to maintain grid reliability.

If a utility’s authorized returns “are below those of comparable utilities, its ability to attract capital is at risk,” said Robert Leming, vice president of regulatory policy and strategy for Pepco Holdings, which is now engaged in a regulatory debate over profits at the Public Service Commission of Maryland.

Utilities need that capital “to provide safe and reliable service for customers,” he told Utility Dive in an interview.

An ROE case study

Some say the AI boom has introduced bottlenecks that are forcing utilities to consider alternatives to building, but others worry that the opposite is happening, and the hype cycle is fueling ill-conceived spending that will be on ratepayer bills for decades.

The current Pepco rate case offers an illustrative example of the state of the debate. The utility has proposed an ROE of 10.5%, an increase from its current 9.5% allowed ROE. The Maryland Office of People’s Counsel has proposed 7.7%.

The head of the OPC, David Lapp, told Utility Dive that many of the utility’s recent infrastructure investments could have been deferred. 

“Pepco is investing too much too fast and not in things that are cost effective and needed going forward,” Lapp said.

Pepco Holdings’ Leming disagreed. “Maryland’s ambitious climate and electrification goals require investment to modernize and upgrade the system,” he said.

Ellis, Lapp and others see high utility ROEs as a perverse incentive because it biases utilities toward expensive investments that add to a utility’s base of financed costs that earn ROEs and increase rates.

In addition, Lapp argues Pepco’s ROE is “inflated” by a financial strategy called ”double leveraging,” involving Exelon Utilities, Pepco’s parent corporation and only investor.

OPC contends that Exelon’s lower cost debt is being used by Pepco as higher cost equity, allowing it to borrow more lower cost debt.

Double leveraging “is not illegal if regulators approve it,” Lapp said. But if Pepco counts Exelon’s debt as equity in its capital structure, it raises the total ROE and, as a result, customer rates, he added.

“Exelon’s role does not change Pepco’s ROE needs,” Pepco consultant Adrien McKenzie told Maryland commissioners. Equity to support Pepco operations “must be raised in the capital markets,” based on returns competitive with “risk-comparable alternatives,” he added.

If Exelon debt to be paid back in 10 years is invested by Pepco in 50-year assets, Exelon would not be reimbursed soon enough to meet its debt, Pepco’s Leming added.

To justify the proposed 10.5% ROE, McKenzie presented multiple quantitative analyses and “a proxy group of risk-comparable electric utilities.” Credit ratings for Pepco of Baa1 from Moody’s and A- from S&P were central to his conclusion, McKenzie testified.

“Rating agencies and potential debt investors tend to place significant emphasis on maintaining strong financial metrics,” McKenzie told the commission. And this emphasis on financial metrics and credit ratings is shared by equity investors, he added.

Pepco’s Leming told Utility Dive he is focused on utility operations.

“Affordability is one of Pepco’s top priorities right now,” he said. Recent rising rates are linked to investments that have made Pepco highly ranked for customer satisfaction, he added.

But Pepco must be adequately funded to meet today’s “unprecedented” demand with new infrastructure, Leming continued. “That underscores the importance of having a competitive ROE to attract capital,” he said.

Lapp said his focus is customers.

“Everyone agrees investors in utilities should have the opportunity to earn the same return as an entity with a comparable level of risk,” he said. “But Pepco’s proposed 10.5% ROE is unfair to customers because its cost of equity is not just a little bit less, but significantly less.”

A ruling on Pepco’s ROE is expected in August.

Finding solutions

Reducing ROE can in fact impact a utility’s credit quality. Several Connecticut utilities, including Eversource and Avangrid, saw their credit ratings downgraded by credit agencies citing an inconsistent and unsupportive regulatory environment.

But that impact can be offset, Ellis said. “Increasing the equity portion of the debt-equity ratio and lowering the ROE produces ratepayer savings” without significantly altering the utility’s credit ratings, he added.

Ellis is a proponent of “competitive direct equity” as the “structural and political solution,” he said. “It would replace administratively set ROEs with a supply and demand-determined cost of equity through a competitive auction that would fundamentally change the utility incentive structure,” he explained.

In today’s rate cases, ROE determination “is a charade that is not calculated consistently or accurately,” Ellis continued. “The utility says it should be 11% and the consumer advocate says it should be 9% and the regulators compromise at 10% and move to the next proceeding.”

Utilities are accustomed to obtaining satisfactory ROEs through rate cases adjudicated by their state regulators and have no widely proposed alternative political solution. They warn regulators that reducing working capital puts reliability at risk.

But utilities’ rate case filings, like Pepco’s, typically include complex formulas for calculating ROE that overwhelm regulators and conclude that the utility needs an ROE increase, said Karl Rabago, a former Texas utilities commissioner and a frequent rate case intervenor on behalf of consumers.

“The original focus on balancing cost-of-service and earnings anticipated regulators would substitute for the forces of competition, and that has been lost,” Rabago said.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/27/2026 - 21:45

Inside America's Left: Mapping The Five Factions Battling For Power

Many transformations are unfolding within America's political left, and its shifting factions can be difficult to track.

The Democratic establishment is fighting to preserve its grip on power as progressives and reformist socialists gain ground in local elections, with some openly promoting the dismantling of capitalism and adopting increasingly hostile rhetoric toward America.

Fox News has begun publishing explainers to educate its audience about the emerging far left, while Trump administration officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, have declared war on the radical left and foreign subversion networks linked to Cuba, China and elsewhere (read report).

Related:

• "Fatal Cancer On Civilization": Trump's War On Marxism Enters Action Phase As Rubio, Miller And Bessent Address 65 Nations

Understanding the left requires recognizing that it is not a monolith. To help map its many layers, Karlyn Borysenko, who describes herself as an anti-communist analyst, published an easy-to-understand infographic on X titled "Mapping the Modern Left," noting that "not all leftists are created equal."

The graphic is a five-tiered "rainbow cake" view of the American left, ranging from establishment Democrats who favor incremental reform within capitalism to revolutionary socialists seeking to abolish and destroy the nation from within.

I have updated my Mapping The Modern Left Framework to make the language more precise regarding which groups are on the far left and what they believe.

Specifically, we are now delineating between reformist and revolutionary socialists.

Learn more. Link in reply. pic.twitter.com/m8sfUxtCAP

— Karlyn Borysenko, anti-communist cult leader (@DrKarlynB) July 25, 2026

Her infographic divides the left into two main camps. The "neoliberal left" includes Democrats, liberals, and progressives, while the "far left" comprises reformist and revolutionary socialists. The graphic claims that progressives may favor policies associated with socialism, such as Medicare for All and the Green New Deal, without seeking to eliminate capitalism. Reformist socialists, by contrast, pursue a post-capitalist system... 

Borysenko also uses symbols to indicate which tiers she believes have adopted elements of queer ideology.

Borysenko's infographic provides an easy-to-view understanding of the  intensifying power struggle within the Democratic Party as the party establishment attempts to fend off a takeover by far-left socialists:

• Bill Clinton Insider Warns Of Socialist Takeover, Calls For Probe Into Possible DSA Foreign Ties
• "I'm A Lifelong Democrat": Another Clinton Insider Sounds Alarm Over DSA's Far-Left Hijack Of Party

With fewer than 100 days until the midterm elections, the left's internal power struggle is already emerging as one of the campaign cycle's most intriguing spectacles of the summer. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/27/2026 - 21:20

Washington Gets A Win After Post-Maduro Venezuela Withdraws From ICC

Via Middle East Eye

The US has welcomed a decision by the new Venezuelan government to withdraw the country from the International Criminal Court (ICC).

In a post on X, the US State Department hailed the move as marking a "partnership on American-led efforts to dismantle the corrupt and worthless ICC."

It pointed to an investigation by the court into former Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro, who was abducted from the South American country during a US military assault in January 2026, saying it had produced "no result".

"The ICC has instead wasted its resources on investigating and charging persons from countries that have competent, independent judicial systems and which never submitted to the jurisdiction of the court," the statement read.

"This is blatant overreach, political bias and selective enforcement," it said, adding that the court is "neither credible, independent, nor legitimate".

"It is time to dismantle the ICC," it said, calling for all its members to "withdraw from the Rome Statute".

via AFP

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he had spoken with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who he said reaffirmed Washington's intention to act "forcefully" against the ICC.

In a statement, Netanyahu said the court "endangers justice around the world" and "threatens the right of democratic, sovereign states to exercise their sovereignty," adding that it sought to subject their security "to the decisions of a corrupt clique in The Hague."

The development comes after ICC member states voted on Friday to remove chief prosecutor Karim Khan over misconduct claims.

On Friday, Venezuelan Foreign Minister Felix Plasencia announced that the government had informed the UN of its "irrevocable" decision to quit the court, citing the body's "geographical bias" against countries in the global south.

The move signals a greater alignment by Venezuela with US policies, a week after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio vowed “a whole-of-government response to systematically disable” the tribunal.

The Trump administration has repeatedly sought to undermine the international court, levelling sanctions against prosecutors involved in investigating the actions of US and Israeli militaries.

In an executive order signed last year, Trump wrote that the ICC "has engaged in illegitimate and baseless actions targeting America and our close ally Israel", citing the arrest warrants issued in November for Netanyahu and his then defense minister, Yoav Gallant.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/27/2026 - 20:55

Ex-Wife In Korea's $645M "Divorce Of The Century" Gets Iced Out Of AI Boom

A Seoul court has ordered SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won to pay his ex-wife 944 billion won ($645 million), in the largest divorce award in South Korean history. And while the figure is a record, it was calculated against a stock price more than two years old - before it went ballistic in the AI boom. 

Chey Tae-won, chairman of SK Group. Lee Young-hwan/Newsis/Associated Press

The Seoul High Court's First Family Division, presiding judge Lee Sang-ju, issued the ruling on Friday, nine years after Chey filed for divorce mediation in 2017. The court ordered the money paid in cash with 5 percent annual interest from the day after the judgment becomes final, and declined to hand over any stock, citing the role Chey's shares play in his control of the group, according to the WSJ. Neither side has said whether it will appeal again.

Chey did not attend. He was in California, accompanying President Lee Jae-myung on a San Francisco trip and dining with Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang in Woodside.

The Two-Year-Old Price

The court fixed the valuation at April 16, 2024, the date arguments closed in the earlier appeal. SK Inc. finished that session at 160,000 won ($110) a share, putting Chey's 17.9 percent stake at roughly 2.07 trillion won ($1.4 billion). When arguments closed in the remand trial on June 26, 2026, the stock closed at 810,000 won ($555). Five times higher thanks to an AI boom that runs from Nvidia's high-bandwidth memory orders through SK Hynix, up through SK Square, and into the holding company at the top.

Roh's lawyers argued for the June 2026 date. Chey's argued for April 2024. The court sided with Chey. Supreme Court precedent holds that divisible property is measured as of the closing of the last fact-finding trial, which the court took to be the pre-remand appeal. It added that share prices are volatile and listed stock is a cash-equivalent asset that can be sold at any time, so declining to split gains that land after a marriage has legally ended does not obviously defeat the purpose of an equitable division.

The court acknowledged the price had risen sharply between the two dates, said Chey's management deserved credit for part of that, and stated that it had taken the surge into account in setting the division ratio rather than in the valuation. 

On what Roh contributed, the court was more generous than the first-instance judge had been in 2022, when he ruled the SK shares were Chey's separate property and awarded her 66.5 billion won ($45 million). Her homemaking, her raising of the couple's three children and her public activity on the group's behalf, the court found, had helped form and sustain the value of the stock. It rejected Chey's argument that the shares were inherited and gifted assets outside the marriage. Then it set her share at one-third.

The Bribe That Counted For Nothing

Two years ago a different panel awarded Roh 1.3808 trillion won ($945 million) after she argued that her father's money helped build the company, and that Chey's SK shares were therefore a joint dynastic project rather than his alone. To prove it, her side put a slush fund memo written by her mother, Kim Ok-sook, into evidence, documenting 90.4 billion won ($62 million), and argued that 30 billion won ($21 million) of former President Roh Tae-woo's slush money had passed to SK founding chairman Chey Jong-hyun in 1991 and gone toward the acquisition of Pacific Securities and other business.

In May 2024, the appellate court accepted it. It found the transfer real, treated the money as seed capital, and found that Roh Tae-woo had smoothed regulatory obstacles for SK's move into mobile telecoms during his 1988-1993 presidency, playing what it called "the role of a protective shield" for the elder Chey. It valued the couple's joint property at some 4 trillion won ($2.7 billion), set Roh's share at 35 percent, and ordered 1.3808 trillion won ($945 million) paid.

On October 16, 2025, the Supreme Court's First Division threw that out. The money may well have moved, the justices held, and that was the problem. Roh Tae-woo was arrested in 1995 and convicted the following year of taking hundreds of billions of won (hundreds of millions of dollars) from businessmen, and Article 746 of the Civil Act bars anyone from suing over a benefit conferred for an illegal purpose. A president routing part of a bribe to his in-laws and staying silent about it was, in the court's words, so markedly anti-social, unethical and immoral as to fall outside the protection of the law. Since the conduct had no legal value worth protecting, it could not be counted as his daughter's contribution when the marital estate was divided.

Roh's lawyers had a reply. She was not trying to recover the money, only to have its effect acknowledged. The court was not interested.

On remand, the 30 billion won ($21 million) came out and her ratio slipped from 35 percent to one-third - a small move, because the slush fund had never carried much weight in the ratio to begin with. The larger cut came from a second holding in the same Supreme Court ruling: shares Chey had gifted to his younger brother and other relatives before the marriage collapsed were not divisible property either. The estate shrank while her percentage held roughly steady, and the award fell by 436.8 billion won ($300 million).

Now He Has To Find The Cash

Chey holds 12,975,472 SK Inc. shares, 17.90 percent, worth roughly 8.5 trillion won ($5.8 billion) at last Thursday's close. The award is about 11 percent of that - and the court told him to pay it in money, not stock.

Roh Soh-yeong arrived at court in June. YONHAP/AFP/Getty Images Tyler Durden Mon, 07/27/2026 - 20:30