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Biden's Illegal Alien Invasion Sparked 30% Home Price Growth, 20% Rent Growth: Fed Paper

A new Federal Reserve working paper adds hard data to a dire economic realities that tens of millions of hardworking Americans already face: being priced out of homeownership or trapped paying ungodly high rents.

For years, the housing affordability crisis was blamed almost entirely on low interest rates, pandemic-era demand, institutional buyers, and a shortage of new construction. However, one major point was largely and conveniently ignored by mainstream media: the Biden-Harris regime's open border policies, which facilitated a massive illegal alien invasion.

The paper, published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, uses new government data to measure the labor and housing market effects of the illegal alien invasion from early 2021 through the first half of 2024.

"From early 2021 to early 2024, the U.S. experienced an unprecedented boom in unauthorized immigration, followed by a rapid slowdown beginning in mid-2024," the authors of the report wrote.

Dallas Fed researchers found that illegal alien worker flows raised local employment roughly one-for-one, with a 1% increase in such workers relative to initial employment levels lifting local employment by about 0.96%. They found no significant evidence that the inflows reduced average weekly wages.

The researchers noted that the impact was more pronounced in housing markets nationwide. A 1% increase in illegal alien worker flows was associated with a 2.2% rise in local home prices and a 1.4% increase in rents, with little evidence that new housing supply expanded enough to absorb the added demand.

They described this inflow as triggering a "housing demand shock in the presence of relatively fixed short-run housing supply," accounting for 30% of home price growth and 20% of rent growth in the average local market during the boom period.

The Democratic Party's nation-killing open-border invasion imposed real economic costs on working-class citizens, the very people Democrats claim to champion.

As the scale of the post-2021 illegal alien invasion becomes clearer, so does the economic fallout.

Millions of illegals strained housing markets, adding demand at a time when supply was tight, affordability collapsed, and citizens were being priced out of the American Dream.

It is hard to ignore that the party which once branded itself as the defender of working-class Americans has increasingly aligned itself with far-left activists, globalist billionaires, and a future voter base built around mass migration. In the process, Democrats helped create an affordability crisis that harmed the very households they claim to protect.

The answer is clear and most Americans agree:

Want lower grocery store prices?

Deport 20 million illegals.

Want lower mortgage rates?

Deport 20 million illegals.

Want lower health and car insurance?

Deport 20 million illegals.

Want safer streets and communities?

Deport 20 million illegals.

Make sense yet?

— Steve 🇺🇸 (@SteveLovesAmmo) July 6, 2026

Meanwhile, socialist Democrats continue lecturing the nation that "racist capitalism" is responsible for the economic misery facing working-class Americans. Yet according to the Fed paper, the illegal alien invasion is at the center of what sparked housing affordability mess. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/06/2026 - 16:40

On The War For The Soul Of Our Nation...

Authored by James Howard Kusntler,

Werewolves Of London

“To use language to obscure reality is to show ‘indifference regarding the truth’ - to lie to the public and cease to treat our fellow citizens as equals.”

 - Justice Clarence Thomas

Now that the grand 250th USA birthday party is over - the speeches, the shrieking warplanes, the dazzling fireworks, the speeches and strawberry shortcake - there is only one way this thing can go. What thing? The war for the soul of the nation. Some mysterious somebody is behind the surging “Democratic-Socialist” craze. Somebody is paying for it. It’s a last-ditch drive to marshal the disaffected, under-employed young voters, choking on their college loans, deranged by anomie, and get them marching in solidarity with X-million illegal aliens to act-out an election jihad so as to squeeze out House and Senate majorities and, ultimately, wreck the nation.

That mysterious background “somebody” is not so mysterious. It just doesn’t self-identify under a banner, but you can easily tell who they are: the, the slippery closet-Marxist Barack Obama and, behind him, the American Deep State nomenklatura desperate to stay out of prison, along with the unelected EU Commission led by the grandmotherly sadist Ursula von der Leyen (plus the banksters behind her). Some call them “globalists.” They are a loose coalition of convenience against the populist threat of Mr. Trump in America and similar populist movements in Europe: AfD in Germany, the two parties of Nigel Farage and Rupert Lowe in the UK, and LePen’s Nationalist Rally in France.

The EU, with its front-men Macron, Merz, and whoever will replace Starmer this month, is currently preoccupied with its stupid effort to provoke Russia into a wider war, using their proxy, Ukraine. Mr. Putin, still advancing through the Donbas, refuses to get drawn-in deeper with the EU despite the drone and missile sorties lately banging-up his oil depots. Mr. Putin is actually a defender of Western Civ — yes, ironic, isn’t it, considering what his country escaped out of in 1991 — but it’s so. Russia has become our natural ally in this struggle as the EU goes all werewolf on both Russia and us. File under strange-but-true.

Contrary to Deep State propaganda, and the IRGC’s bullshit, Mr. Trump has the Iran situation in-hand. We have bigly reduced Iran’s capacity to make trouble in the world and our satellites watch everything they do now, so there will be no Iranian military re-build, no matter how the MOU talks go. They still do have the option of dropping their jihad fixation and acting like a normal nation, but we’ll just have to stand by on that.

What has to happen now in the USA is a summer of accountability. Perp walks. Indictments. Preparation for trials. Many of you are discouraged about this, I know, but please put those black pills back in the medicine chest. Accountability is coming. The mills of the law grind slowly, and its especially difficult since the Deep State has corrupted select precincts of the law, such as the US District Court for the District of Columbia, where rogue judges Boasberg, Chutkan, Sullivan, Howell, Meta, Reyes, Cooper, et al., have made an industry of paralyzing Mr. Trump’s executive branch.

Nevertheless, accountability might also be coming for Chief Justice John Roberts, who wrote the dodgy majority opinion on the SCOTUS’s June 30 “Birth Citizenship” decision (Trump v. Barbara), an epic fail for Justice Roberts (joined by Amy Coney Barrett and the three DEI gals). The 14th Amendment was written to mitigate the disruptions of the Civil War. Section One is clearly aimed at defining the full citizenship of former slaves, and that’s all, not the offspring of casual visitors and border-jumpers. There was considerable clarifying debate on the record about all that in June, 1866, with skeletons still being cleared off the battlefields. The 2026 decision looks like a debacle for reasons also obvious.

The Chief and his harem

What motivated Mr. Roberts to do such a harm? Perhaps he’s just an idiot, but there’s more lurking there.

It’s widely known that the Chief Justice made at least one week-long visit to Norm Eisen, after Eisen had been appointed Ambassador to Prague (2011) by his law school classmate, President Barack Obama. In these final years of Obama-in-office, Norm Eisen was busy plotting so-called Color Revolution in Europe, which climaxed in the 2014 Maidan operation in Ukraine. The purpose was to make Ukraine as a proxy to weaken Russia, and would come to entail massive money-laundering and the setting up of bio-weapons labs there. This was also the period when then-Veep Joe Biden was given the “Ukraine Portfolio” and was busiest with his own grifting enterprise, through son Hunter.

Norm Eisen went on to become the chief lawfare ninja coordinating against the Trump administration with his field captains: Marc Elias, Mary McCord, Andrew Weissmann, and others. All have been involved in suspiciously seditious activities through both Trump terms. What was the Chief Justice confabbing about with Norm Eisen in Prague then? About vagaries of US / EU legal cooperation? Or were they deliberating on tactics for dealing with Barack Obama’s as-then-undeclared successor? Or possibly on bringing color revolution to the US, if Barack Obama’s posterity declared it necessary?

Consider the strange situation that one Sheldon Snook was appointed Special Assistant to Roberts in 2014. Snook is married to lawfare ninja Mary McCord, who served as Acting Deputy Assistant Attorney General for the National Security Division, DOJ (2014–2016) and Assistant Attorney General for National Security, DOJ (2016–2017). She was involved in the initiation of the RussiaGate operation and in 2019 was appointed Special Counsel to Jerrold Nadler’s House Judiciary Committee during the 2019 impeachment inquiry into President Trump — the impeachment that was all about Ukraine. . . and what might have been going on there under Obama, especially Joe Biden shenanigans.

Consider, too, that a scandal has just emerged involving CJ Robert’s wife, Jane, and the enormous commissions she received working at the DC law firm Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman, and then the legal recruiting outfit Major, Lindsey & Africa (through 2019), and then legal another recruiting firm, Macrae, for placing eminent attorneys into law firms with active Supreme Court case practices. Her income from all this recruiting surpassed $10-million. CJ Roberts did not recuse himself from the cases involving these relationships. This is a still-developing story. . . .

And, of course, an investigation of California Governor Gavin Newsom begun, irony-of-ironies, by the Biden DOJ, has just blossomed into a florid scandal involving shell companies set up by Gov. Newsom’s busy wife, Jennifer, through which millions of dollars were laundered under various fake social and health service initiativs. Newsom appointee Alexis Podesta “wore a wire” during the period and is cooperating in the case. Buh-bye presidential hopes, Guv, and don’t let the cell door whack your ass on the way in.

These are just a few possible appetizers. The main course is coming up.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/06/2026 - 16:20

Officials Tracking Growing Outbreak Of Legionnaires' Disease In New York

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

An outbreak of serious pneumonia is growing in New York, officials said on July 5.

Eighteen cases of Legionnaires’ disease have been confirmed in several Manhattan neighborhoods, the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene said late Sunday, up from 14 earlier in the day and 10 on Saturday.

The cases are clustered in three zip codes, 10028, 10128, and 10075, on the Upper East Side of Manhattan, the department said.

We’re investigating a cluster of Legionnaires’ disease on the Upper East Side (ZIP codes 10028 & 10128). If you live or work in this area or visited the area since late June and are experiencing flu-like symptoms, contact a healthcare provider immediately: https://t.co/0rXv78p1V1 pic.twitter.com/Z4i7iYnnaB

— nychealthy (@nycHealthy) July 3, 2026

Legionnaires’ disease is a form of pneumonia caused by Legionella bacteria, which grow in warm water. The disease shares symptoms with influenza, such as fever and chills, and can be fatal if left untreated.

No deaths have yet been reported with the current outbreak.

People who live in the zip codes, or who have recently visited the east side of Central Park, should monitor for symptoms, New York City Health Commissioner Dr. Alister Martin said in a statement.

People who experience symptoms should see a health care provider immediately.

Treatment for pneumonia typically includes antibiotics, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Certain individuals are more vulnerable to the disease, including individuals aged 50 and older and those who smoke or vape.

One way people can contract Legionnaires’ disease is by breathing in water vapor or mist containing Legionella bacteria. People cannot get the disease from other people.

The probable source of the bacteria is a water cooling tower in the area, according to health officials.

The systems, usually located on top of buildings, control the temperature of cooling systems, such as refrigeration and spray mist systems, which contain the bacteria.

The city’s health department is testing all the cooling towers in the area.

“This is not an issue with any building’s plumbing system. It is safe for you to drink water, bathe, shower, cook, and use your air conditioner,” health officials said in a notice to residents.

“Continuing to use your air conditioner is especially important when the city is experiencing extreme heat and temperatures reach dangerously high levels.”

There have been outbreaks of Legionnaires’ disease in the past from plumbing systems in buildings, but there are no signs that this is the case with the current situation, according to officials.

Officials first reported the cluster of cases on July 2. They said at the time that any owners of buildings where cooling towers tested positive for the Legionella bacteria would be directed to carry out full remediation.

A Legionnaires’ disease cluster in central Harlem, also in Manhattan, sickened 114 people in 2025 and left seven dead.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/06/2026 - 15:45

"Arms Race Has Started": War Unicorns Enter M&A Phase As Ondas Snaps Up Kamikaze Drone Maker DZYNE

The writing is on the wall: defense-tech unicorns, particularly those focused on loitering munitions, autonomous drones, and counter-UAS systems, are positioned for years of growth as warfare changes forever. 

These "war unicorns," as we call them, are increasingly ripe for M&A as larger players race to consolidate across drones and counter-drone systems. The latest example is Nasdaq-listed defense and industrial technology firm Ondas Holdings moving to acquire DZYNE Technologies, a maker of drones, loitering-munition-type systems, and counter-drone technology.  

Ondas Drone Box 

Bloomberg reports private equity firm Highlander Partners will receive $200 million in cash and about $675 million in Ondas stock. Those shares will be locked up for six months.

"The arms race has started," Ondas CEO Eric Brock said in a Bloomberg TV interview. "Over the last 20 plus years we have de-industrialized in the United States. That means the supply chain has moved to China."

The deal expands Ondas' portfolio beyond the civilian drone market into systems developed for military surveillance and reconnaissance, as well as smaller kamikaze drones.

DZYNE BlitzBox Drone 

The American company Dzyne has introduced the BlitzBox system, a container for covertly launching a swarm of attack drones. On the outside, it looks like an ordinary cargo box, but inside, it can hold up to 100 Blitz drones, ready to launch in minutes.#DroneWars #UAS #UAV pic.twitter.com/w9aRaZYrCZ

— Drone Wars (@Drone_Wars_) May 27, 2026

Ondas said DZYNE is expected to generate $191 million in revenue this year and $300 million in 2027.

Recently, Needham analyst Austin Bohlig told clients of a potential drone procurement supercycle, as the US military prepares to spend billions of dollars on these low-cost systems.

Read the report:

• Congress Moves To Boost Drone Funding As "War Unicorns" See Possible Procurement Supercycle

Related:

• JPM Call With Axon Reveals Race To Fortify U.S. Data Centers Against Kamikaze Drone Swarms
• Goldman Sits Down With Anduril As 'War Unicorns' Reshape Defense Tech
• "Flying Beer Cooler": Pentagon's Next Kamikaze Drone Ushers In Era Of Cheap Mass-Produced Airpower

Separate, but more on war technology coverage:

• Ukraine Plans To Hyper-Innovate Humanoid Robot Soldiers

The Ondas-DZYNE deal further suggests that defense startups focusing on drones and counter-UAS are prime M&A targets for larger companies.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/06/2026 - 15:25

When The Monetary Laws Of Physics Change

Authored by Mark Jeftovic via BombThrower.com,

“You just wait until the next bear market…”

Last month, I talked about how many of the legendary investors I’ve long followed as well as many of my contemporary financial commentators (speaking specifically of the contrarian ilk), are almost unanimous in the opinion that the AI trade is well into bubble territory and stocks in general are overvalued. Hell, even I think that and I’m personally “all in” on AI and have a fair bit of equities exposure to it (not a tonne, but it’s there, and the biggest winners in the TSC portfolio lately have all been AI stocks and HPC stocks).

Angela sent me this Diary of a CEO interview with Jeremy Grantham – another legend – and she said it was scary. At his peak he managed something like $165B AUM, but he’s down to $80B or $90B now (he also says the only reason he’s still counted as a billionaire today, personally, is because they include the money he’s given away. Grantham has donated over 90% of his net worth to the Grantham Foundation, which invests and incubates primarily green-tech innovation to combat climate change.

Although Thomas Braziel, whose name you might recognize as a notable distressed asset investor who specializes in crypto i.e. Mt Gox claims, FTX, put out an interesting analysis of Grantham’s green tech foundation’s filings – and surmised that what he’s saying on the talk-show circuit isn’t lining up with where he’s actually allocating the foundation’s …money  )

Via: GMO Q4 2025 Letter

Grantham occupies an exalted perch in the pantheon of institutional investors, so when he opines on something, it tends to get picked up on, which one may find somewhat quizzical, given his lifetime batting average isn’t really in the same league as the likes of Buffett, Munger, Klarman, et al.

His lifetime average returns? The closest analog could be the lifetime average of the GMO Global Asset Allocation Composite, which he co-founded.

Their number? 8.43%. And 0.8% of that was because of a one-time litigation settlement received in 2024

Warren Buffett’s lifetime batting average is pushing 20% (19.8%).

The S&P itself, 10%.

In case you’re wondering how somebody became a billionaire by lagging the major index by 200bp over their entire career, it’s because Grantham is proficient at one thing in particular: not losing money.

The TL;DR from the DOAC interview? A lot of people are about to lose a lot of money.

When Stephen Bartlett told him he was invested in SpaceX, Grantham dead-panned, “Good luck with that”.

Bitcoin? “It’s a zero”.

The interview went a bit viral and I saw a lot of “Billionaire says Bitcoin is worthless” headlines in the mainstream financial press. Grantham has since been on a punditry tour (perhaps in promotion of his latest book, “The Making of a Permabear” – yes, really); and the soundbites that are being repeatedly teased out from them are his “Bitcoin is a zero” sermons, in one case getting into a somewhat heated exchange with Joe Kernen on CNBC – where Kernen, incredibly, makes some of my points far less diplomatically than I have here.

At least it’s not just Bitcoiners getting into scraps! pic.twitter.com/pfJyXM3ZFc

— JOEY (@JoeyTweeets) June 26, 2026

After Grantham trotted out the usual “no use case”, “there’s no there there”, “it’s a bubble”, Kernen straight-armed Grantham in the face with his underperformance over the past two decades,

“You’ve done a great disservice to anybody who’s listened to you over the last twenty years”.

Grantham’s response and attempt at a defence, combined with something else he said in the DOAC interview, are all leading up to my point here, while being 100% oblivious to it:

To Joe Kernen: he said “We’ve been in a bull market since 2009, let’s see how all this stuff holds up when the next bear market hits”

To Steven Bartlett: he cautioned how Amazon sold off a staggering 92% during the Dotcom bust.

During the drive to Hamilton for a board meeting, I listened to this short Alex Hormozi clip and his analogy (which he cribbed from Brian Johnson) hit me full force and I finally had a working metaphor that explained what I’ve been trying to articulate about these living legends of finance.

That they’re underestimating the significance of fiat debasement is true, but it doesn’t really explode in your brain as much as make your eyes glaze over.

The analogy is fish are swimming around in water.

Some of them become experts at swimming. They train their entire lives, they practice every day, they study the expert swimmers of yore, and they analyze nearly every aspect of the water they inhabit: it’s PH levels, alkaline, currents, flow – everything.

They know how a slight variance in one factor impacts the others – they know “which way the current is going”.

But over time, the water heats up; they may pick up on this, but they’re never quite prepared for what it means beyond a certain point.

When that point arrives, the water evaporates – and now it’s gas. Steam.

Setting aside for our purposes how this would fry the fish, imagine they’re still alive, but now they’re trying to apply everything they know about swimming in water to this new environment, which is gaseous, not liquid.

They would be flailing and flapping around like the proverbial “fish out of water”.

What happened?

They were never wrong about their fluid dynamics.

The physics changed and they had no model for the new reality.

Hormozi’s short clip was applying this metaphor to AI – which is certainly among the key drivers of the “monetary physics change” that we are now undergoing.

But the point of no return, when the phase shift started, was – I believe, and as Raoul Pal has always said – the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009.

That was when the water started turning to gas.

Grantham’s own yardstick measures the current bull market from then – when the central banks stepped in, when The Big Print started and when interest rate suppression and credit expansion became permanent features of the global monetary system (I would argue that the process started in 1980-82, and the GFC was a major tipping point).

Yes, Amazon came off 92% when the dotCom bubble burst. But anybody who had bought, even at the high right before that, is now up about 4,642.7 %

On the new Sovereign Capitalist site, we can model all this out interactively (see below).

Run the interactive widget here

On its surface, Grantham’s fixation on loss avoidance serves a purpose (recall Buffett’s top rules of investing: number one is “Don’t lose money”, number two is “See Rule number one”).

If I ever experienced a staggeringly huge life-changing windfall in one moment, I would carve out a “retire your bloodline”-type allocation and hand it to a guy like Grantham (more likely it would be Vito Maida  over at Patient Capital, here in Canada).

But being good at preserving capital has its own opportunity cost, which is far more pronounced now that we’ve traversed the inflection point into the Exponential Age.

The world has transitioned from flat to hyper-cubed – the architecture is completely different now, and the linear measuring stick known as fiat money is ill equipped for the task of describing it.

To Grantham’s point “you just wait until the next bear market”, there won’t be a next bear market, not until we change that measuring stick.

Until the monetary regime change happens – that “change in physics” – any drawdown, no matter how deep, will be papered over with incessant Big Prints until the system itself completes its metamorphosis.

Today’s post was an excerpt from The Sovereign Capitalist my recently relaunched premium service. This goes beyond a dashboard, it’s more of an operating system for high agency net-producers.  All members get access to the full pre-release version of my new book: The Blueprint – Survive & Thrive in an Overclocked Timeline.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/06/2026 - 15:05

Hormuz In The Rearview As Asia-US Ocean Container Rates Soar Past $7,900

By Stuart Chirls of AmericanShipper

The container shipping market is being driven by geopolitics, rates, and network reshuffling, but freight-rate volatility and adjustments by carriers to protect schedules and pricing has supplanted Middle East disruptions as top-level concerns.

Asia-U.S. West Coast prices increased 8% to $6,175 per forty foot equivalent unit (FEU), according to Freightos, a data contributor to SONAR ocean market data.

Prices for Asia-U.S. East Coast transportation also rose 8%, to $7,998 per FEU.

SONAR‘s Ocean Supply/Demand Index reflects the surge in trans-Pacific demand, having recovered to year-ago levels

Iran has escalated steps to assert sole authority over vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, writes Freightos Research Head Judah Levine, in a note to clients, even as it negotiates with the United States over terms of a final peace deal.

"Oil volumes out of the Gulf states are rebounding, though marine traffic was paused … following Iranian strikes on transiting vessels and sites in Bahrain and Kuwait,” Levine said. 

The United Nations abandoned ship evacuations after Tehran attacked a Mediterranean Shipping Co. vessel transiting a non-approved route.

As crude oil flows from the Persian Gulf resume, surging peak season demand – and not oil prices – are driving elevated container rates.

“The early start to this year’s peak has sent rates spiking on the main east-west lanes since mid-May,” Levine said, “with carriers shifting capacity from secondary lanes to service this demand, contributing to rate increases on secondary trades too.”

Zim recently launched a new Asia–East Coast South America service, while Hapag-Lloyd updated service rotations. Broader growth across fleets and new vessel orders with shipyards continues, suggesting carriers are still trying to balance network expansion with an increasingly uneven demand amid geopolitical events.

Since mid-May trans-Pacific prices to the U.S. West Coast have climbed 120%, and by 85% to East Coast gateways. By comparison, Asia-North Europe rates are up 70% in that time, and 85% to the Mediterranean.

In a remarkable show of importer confidence in projected consumer spending, “[t]rans-Pacific East Coast rates are now $1,000/FEU higher than last year’s frontloading-driven summer high,” wrote Levine, “with West Coast prices just above their 2025 peak. Europe and Mediterranean rates are $1,300- and $3,000/ per FEU above their 2025 peak season highs, respectively.

The National Retail Federation said 32% of surveyed consumers had started their back-to-school shopping in June, up from 26% in 2025, an indicator for retail spending later in the year.

The surge is delaying traffic at major hubs in South Asia, the Far East and Europe, shrinking available capacity and contributing to upward pressure on rates, Levine said.

The early rush is likely underpinned by an array of factors, from frontloading ahead of carrier fuel surcharges and manufacturer price increases, as well as approaching U.S. tariff deadlines.

“If enough shippers are indeed pulling peak season volumes forward, we could expect the early start to mean an early peak season unwind as well, possibly some time in July,” Levine said.

Volume strength may stretch on a little longer than many shippers may have preferred due to delays at congested ports, he added. “Carriers are set to introduce more rate increases to start July, so the degree of success carriers have with these price hikes should reflect where the market is in terms of this year’s peak-season peak.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/06/2026 - 14:25

Nvidia Turns Green After Denying Report Its Kyber Server Rack Has Been Delayed

Overnight, Asian tech stocks slumped after a report that Nvidia’s next-generation AI server rack system has been delayed by more than a year due to manufacturing difficulties (we profiled it back in May in "Nvidia's Vera Rubin Rack Will Cost $7.8MM: Here's What's In It".)

Research firm SemiAnalysis said in an X post that Nvidia’s Kyber NVL144 hit setbacks in the construction of printed circuit boards for the platform. 

MASSIVE DELAY: Just 3 months after Jensen demoed Kyber NVL144 at GTC, it has faced major setbacks and has been delayed by more than 12 months, pushing it back to 2028. Below, we explain why Kyber has faced massive delays and why NVIDIA’s NVL72x2 back-to-back rack architecture was… pic.twitter.com/VYduxnu01B

— SemiAnalysis (@SemiAnalysis_) July 5, 2026

According to the tweet, the PCB midplane at the center of the Kyber design remains too difficult to produce reliably. As we noted two months ago, the Kyber design consolidates 144 of Nvidia's most powerful chips into a single cabinet, enabling them to operate as one unified system, and was originally expected to arrive alongside Vera Rubin Ultra in 2027. 

Meanwhile, cloud providers pushed back against the design over operational complexity, SemiAnalysis said, leaving Nvidia without a tested path to expand the scale-up architecture for Rubin Ultra.

In response, Japan’s Ibiden, a PCB maker that counts Nvidia as its largest client, dropped as much as 10%. Among related suppliers, Kingboard Laminates Holdings tumbled 18% in Hong Kong, Elite Material fell 10% in Taiwan and Samsung Electro-Mechanics slid 11% in South Korea.

The selloff came after a significant run-up in those stocks. Before Monday's reversal, both stocks had posted extraordinary gains for the year - Kingboard Laminates by over 470% and Samsung Electro-Mechanics by more than 600%, according to Bloomberg.

The report by SemiAnalysis, which has been known to play "loosely" with market-moving information and trade ahead and/or after its calls (see here and here), many of which have been big flops, landed as AI stock investors have been growing increasingly anxious, with even the smallest setback sparking outsized reactions after a yearslong rally. Last week, global tech stocks whipsawed on headlines hinting at potential overcapacity in the AI buildup and growing competition; earlier today ZH was the first to point out that token expenditure are once again rolling over.

Token spending index rolling over again, down to 2.5 month low pic.twitter.com/0cJhmULDTj

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 6, 2026

The SemiAnalysis report spurred “weakness across regional tech” Monday, said Shawn Oh, head of Korea cash equities at NH Investment & Securities Co. in Seoul. The prospect of a Kyber NVL144 delay together with other points in the post are “raising uncertainty around Nvidia’s next-generation scale-out road map and creating a wider competitive window for alternative AI platforms,” he added. It's also the reason why AMD stock surged today, as any delays in the Nvidia ecosystem allow competitors to grab market share. 

SemiAnalysis also warned that NVL576, which would connect eight of the Kyber racks over optical links to form an even larger system, faces its own delays or constraints on production volume.

However, hours after the unconfirmed SemiAnalysis report sent the Nvidia supplier ecosystem tumbling - giving an opportunity to the research firm to buy the stocks cheap for itself or its partners - an Nvidia spokesman told Bloomberg that “Our road map is intact."

Additionally, CNBC also reported that its existing Rubin systems have entered full production and deliveries to eight major cloud customers - among them Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud - are scheduled to begin this fall.

An MSCI Inc. gauge of sector shares is down 8.5% in the past two weeks, extending its loss Monday with PCB makers among the leading decliners.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/06/2026 - 13:20

Mag 7 Stocks: Risk Or Opportunity In The Making?

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com

💰 Mag 7 Stocks: What Is Causing The Drag

For the past few months, the “Magnificent 7”, or more colloquially known as “Mag 7,” stocks have looked more like the “Lag 7.” The market’s largest growth names, Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), Tesla (TSLA), Meta (META), and Nvidia (NVDA), have trailed badly. Those Mag 7 stocks now carry a bearish story built around one word: capex. As we noted in last weekend’s report, the selling has been sharp. The question is simple. Does it reflect a real problem, or just a narrative investors tell themselves to justify chasing something else?

The Selling Is Concentrated In The Spenders

Start with what the headline hides. This was not the whole group falling together. Microsoft is down roughly 22% this year and just closed its worst month since 2000. Meta is off about 14% over six months. Yet Alphabet is up around 12%, with Apple and Nvidia also higher. The pain landed on the two heaviest capex builders.

So the market is not indiscriminately dumping the Mag 7 stocks. It is discriminating by spending intensity. The hardest builders took the most pain.

That capital did not leave the market. It rotated. Citadel Securities strategist Scott Rubner notes semiconductors now make up nearly a fifth of the S&P 500. That is the highest share on record, and roughly quadruple their 2020 weight.

Retail chased it hard. In June, it traded about $1.9 billion per day in semiconductor options premium, near six times the historical average, mostly in calls. Receivers like Micron ran up more than 200% while the spenders bled. Wedbush’s Dan Ives called it a bifurcated tape; the builders dropped into what he termed the “penalty box.“

The Inconsistency Problem

Here is the inconsistency worth sitting with. For years, no one complained when these companies returned cash through buybacks. A buyback does nothing for the underlying business. At best, it offsets dilution and hands cash back to sellers, who are mostly corporate insiders. The market applauded it anyway, because it inflated asset prices and the market overall.

“It is a pretty easy task to see whether or not corporate stock buybacks influence stock prices. As we penned last year, the impact of buybacks extends beyond individual companies. Since 2000, net corporate buybacks have accounted for 100% of the equity market’s net asset purchases—a reflection of the diminished participation from pensions, mutual funds, and individual investors:”

• Net Flow: +$5.2 trillion
• Pensions & Mutual Funds: –$2.7 trillion
• Households & Foreign Investors: +$2.4 trillion
• Corporations (Buybacks): +$5.5 trillion

Now those same companies are directing cash into capacity, the data centers and chips behind AI, more than $650 billion this year. And the market recoils. That is a psychology problem more than an accounting one. Investors prefer the certainty of a buyback’s return to the deferred payoff of an investment. Howard Marks has long argued that the crowd’s comfort is usually mispriced. Aversion to the build phase is where opportunity often hides.

That said, capex is not automatically good. It creates value only when the return clears the cost of capital. And the AI payoff is genuinely unproven. Ed Yardeni captured the doubt, writing that investors seem to be feeling “AI Fatigue,” questioning whether the spending will ever pay off. That skepticism is fair. The real question is whether the market is pricing it or overreacting.

The current fear has a rhyme. From 2016 through 2020, these same names poured cash into data centers to build out the cloud. Investors fretted about margins and runaway spending. That capex converted into the revenue and margin leadership that has defined the market ever since.

The long-run numbers make the point. Since 2016, Mag 7 revenue has grown by close to 375%, compared with roughly 95% for the S&P 500. Earnings echo it. The group’s 2026 growth is tracked near 38%, versus about 19% for the S&P 493. The gap is narrowing as the index recovers, part of why money rotated away. Even so, the fundamental leadership remains intact. A three-month, flow-driven drawdown does not erase a decade of compounding.

Will the AI build rhyme with the cloud build? That is the honest uncertainty. What the record shows is that the market feared this exact pattern before and was wrong to sell the builders wholesale. We will take up the other side, the risk that heavy spending and slow depreciation are flattering today’s reported earnings, in a separate contrarian piece soon.

Have Mag 7 Stocks Already Repriced The Risk?

This is where the two possibilities meet. If the selloff were only a story, valuations on the Mag 7 stocks would still be stretched. They are not. HSBC strategists Duncan Toms and Max Kettner show the leaders at the low end of their own decade-long forward multiples. Nvidia sits near 20 times forward earnings, close to a 10-year low for the stock. Meta is near 16, Microsoft and Alphabet are near 24. The expensive corner is now the defensive names. Costco, Walmart, and Monster Beverage sit near the top of their ranges.

The cleaner tell is what drove the de-rating. It happened against rising earnings, not falling ones. Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Broadcom have all seen trailing multiples fall over the past year because earnings have outpaced share prices. That is not a broken story. It is a repricing.

In the short term, the underperformance is stretched to an extreme that few appreciate. Ned Davis Research’s 21-day rate of change on Mag 7 relative strength, against the S&P 500 ex-Mag 7, has fallen to roughly three standard deviations below average.

That reading has appeared only a handful of times in eleven years. One caution matters. It measures the speed of the decline, not a floor. So the pace looks unsustainable, but a bounce is not guaranteed. Positioning agrees with Goldman and Morgan Stanley’s prime data showing hedge funds near multi-year lows in these names.

What Should Investors Do Now

Our answer rejects the either/or because both are true in sequence. The first leg was a narrative, capital leaving the spenders to chase semiconductors. But the flows ran far enough that a story-driven decline has repriced the Mag 7 stocks into an opportunity. It is concentrated in the very names that fell the most, Microsoft and Meta.

That is how we are positioned. Last Wednesday, our Sector and Factor Rotation model shifted from a value tilt toward growth. We added mega-cap exposure to the weakness. Net equity exposure barely moved. This is a TACTICAL add, not a verdict that the AI spending debate is over. The exit is defined. If free cash flow and the depreciation catch-up confirm at second-quarter earnings in late July, we sell and move on.

Know the risk on the other side. The semiconductor chase is crowded and heavily levered. Citadel Securities data show leveraged ETF assets at a record high, with semiconductor exposure up about 175% since March. Half of all retail options now expire the same day. One-month equity financing spreads sit near 138 basis points over the risk-free rate. When a trade is that crowded and levered, the unwind tends to be fast. That is one more reason the rotation back toward the spenders can move quickly.

There is a caution on the bull case, too. Nearly every major desk, from BofA and Morgan Stanley to Goldman, JPMorgan, and HSBC, is leaning the same contrarian way. When everyone agrees a trade is contrarian, it stops being contrarian. That crowding is the real risk to our own view. It is why we sized this as a trade with a stop, not a conviction position. As Bob Farrell warned, excesses in one direction tend to invite excesses in the other. The crowd rotated hard into chips. We think the rubber band snaps back toward the Mag 7 stocks, and we will be quickly proven wrong if it does not.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/06/2026 - 12:45

Xbox Hit With 3,000 Layoffs After CEO Warns Business Is "Not Healthy"

Xbox CEO Asha Sharma issued a dire warning to staff on Monday: "Our business today is not healthy. We must reset Xbox."

Sharma's memo, first published on the Xbox website, announced cuts of 3,200 jobs tied to Microsoft's Xbox division, or equal to about 20% of staff, as deteriorating margins and disappointing Game Pass subscriptions have forced the unit into a major restructuring effort.

The 3,200-job reduction will be split into two waves: the first 1,600 layoffs will begin this week, with another 1,600 occurring over the rest of the fiscal year, according to the memo.

Last month, Sharma told employees in another memo that Xbox's "accountability margin," the metric Microsoft uses to reflect profit margin, had slipped to 3% and that annual revenue had tumbled to alarmingly low levels. "Going forward, this cannot continue," she wrote then.

The CEO said:

After careful consideration, I've made the difficult decision to reduce our team by approximately 3,200 throughout FY27. This will include approximately 1,600 role eliminations today, and in addition, four studios will leave XBOX to new management. I recognize that a year-long restructuring creates additional challenges. Unfortunately, it is not possible to make all the necessary changes in a single day, and I wanted to be direct about the scale.

. . .

Our business today is not healthy. We are operating on margins that are 3-10x lower than those of comparable platform and publishing businesses. We entered Gen 9 with a smaller install base and a higher cost structure. To grow, we bet on Game Pass, multi-platform, and a broader portfolio of content. While those businesses have created meaningful value, they did not grow at the pace we expected. As that happened, our core business weakened, and we added more teams, more investment, and more time, hoping for a better outcome. And now the industry is facing the most severe hardware crisis in its history. We must reset XBOX.

She provided color on restructuring across Xbox's content portfolio:

Since 2018, we have aggressively expanded our studio portfolio while the number of games created each month across the industry now outpaces the last ten years combined. We now find ourselves competing not only with the largest publishers, but also with smaller independent studios. It is neither possible nor desirable to own every great independent studio. We have also learned that we are not the best home for every type of studio; in a typical year, we lost 64 cents for every dollar we invested. As we reset XBOX, we will help independent creators succeed by providing open development tools and audiences to realize their vision.

Compulsion Games and Double Fine Productions will return to management and transition to independent studios with their IP, catalog, and runway for their next games. Ninja Theory and Undead Labs have entered terms to join new ownership with funding to complete and grow Senua and State of Decay 3. In France, Arkane's management is beginning required consultation with its Works Council to review potential strategic options.

We are also making reductions across other units, and in some cases, shifting investment to focus on higher priority projects. These changes vary in size across Activision, Bethesda/ZeniMax, Blizzard, King, Mojang, and XBOX Game Studios. None of our first party publicly announced games or projects are being cancelled as part of these reductions.

In addition, Mojang and King will now report directly to me. These two studios have increasingly become platforms and are our largest by monthly active players. They bring critical geographic, demographic, and differentiation to XBOX.

The changes at Xbox come as the broader video game industry remains stuck in a post-pandemic slump. Compounding the pressure is the memory-chip squeeze, fueled by AI data-center demand, which has pushed console production costs higher and forced both Xbox and PlayStation prices to climb.

The release of GTA VI, now about 135 days away, cannot come soon enough. WallStreet analysts expect the blockbuster launch to drive a new wave of console demand and potentially produce some tailwinds for the struggling gaming industry.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/06/2026 - 12:25

New Jersey Lawmakers Pass Bill To Establish Large Load Data Center Tariff

By Zachary Skidmore of DataCenterDynamics

New Jersey lawmakers have passed a bill that will direct the state's Board of Public Utilities (PUC) to establish a dedicated data center tariff for facilities with a capacity of 50MW or more, in an attempt to shield other ratepayers from cost increases tied to new builds.

A similar bill was originally proposed in June of last year by Democratic assemblymen Dave Bailey and Joe Danielsen. However, that initial bill was pocket-vetoed by then-governor Phil Murphy, who did not sign it before his term ended.

CoreSite’s NY3 data center is located in Secaucus and offers more than 138,000 square feet of capacity.CoreSite

Following the veto, the bill was replaced with S731, which proposed broader protections than the previous bill. It will now head to Democratic governor Mikie Sherrill for final approval. Assemblyman David Bailey Jr. said Sherrill's office was involved in drafting the latest version and expressed optimism she would sign it.

The new bill is broader than the previously vetoed bill, applying to both existing and new facilities, and lowering the threshold from 100MW. It also aggregates facilities that are under common ownership or on contiguous sites, treating them as a single large data center for purposes of the threshold.

Other provisions in the bill include requiring data centers to demonstrate their project is not proposed elsewhere to avoid speculative applications, providing financial guarantees to take or pay for at least 85 percent of the requested service for ten years, and committing to demand response and flexibility programs. In addition, the bill mandates that large data center customers be curtailed before residential customers during grid emergencies.

It will also require the PUC to prioritize interconnection for data centers that make binding commitments to bring their own clean generation or storage.

The bill is the latest to be passed within a state legislature, with several already enshrined in law, and many others currently making their way through the approval process.

Last month, regulators in Oregon approved a new rate class for data centers and other large loads, which is now in effect.

Before this, Oklahoma’s governor, Kevin Stitt, signed into law a new bill aimed at protecting ratepayers in the state from rising utility and infrastructure costs associated with data centers. This closely followed Florida, whose governor signed into law a similar bill that prohibited utilities from passing data center infrastructure costs on to residential and small-business ratepayers and required large-scale users to bear their full cost of service.

Other states to see similar rules proposed and passed include Ohio, North Carolina, and Virginia, to name a few.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/06/2026 - 12:05

Truck Driver Accused Of Using Fake Documents To Steal $2.9 Million Cargo

By Phil Bring of FreightWaves

Police in Greenfield, Indiana, arrested a California truck driver after officers recovered nearly $2.9 million worth of tungsten oxide powder that police said thieves stole during a cargo theft in Pennsylvania.

According to a June 28 news release from the Greenfield Police Department, officers received an alert around 6 a.m. Saturday regarding a wanted semi tractor-trailer traveling eastbound on Interstate 70 into Hancock County. Police said the truck was connected to a cargo theft that occurred in Pennsylvania on June 25. Officers located the truck and trailer just west of the Greenfield exit at mile marker 104, confirmed the information and conducted a traffic stop.

Police identified the driver as 31-year-old Deepak Kumar of Fresno, California. Authorities said Kumar used fraudulent documents to obtain a load of nearly 40,000 pounds of tungsten oxide powder. Police valued the shipment at $2,857,500 and said it was headed to Mitsubishi Materials Corporation in Japan.

Deepak Kumar, 31, of Fresno, California, was arrested June 27 after Greenfield police recovered a shipment of tungsten oxide powder valued at about $2.9 million. Police said Kumar faces theft-related charges in Pennsylvania. Source: Greenfield Police Department

Greenfield police arrested Kumar at the scene on an active arrest warrant issued by the state of Pennsylvania. According to police, the warrant charges Kumar with theft by unlawful taking of movable property and criminal use of a communication facility.

Officers transported Kumar to the Hancock County Jail following the arrest. Police said the Hancock County Prosecutor’s Office will determine whether Kumar will face criminal charges in Indiana related to the traffic stop and evidence recovered during the subsequent search warrant.

Police said officers impounded the truck and trailer through Inman’s Towing of Greenfield following the traffic stop. Investigators held both as evidence while they requested a search warrant. After a judge issued the warrant, officers searched the trailer and confirmed it contained the reported stolen cargo.

According to police, a representative of Mitsubishi Materials Corporation traveled to Greenfield on Sunday and took possession of the recovered shipment.

The Greenfield Police Department has not identified the Pennsylvania business where investigators allege the cargo theft occurred. Authorities also have not released additional information describing the fraudulent documents investigators said Kumar used to obtain the cargo.

Police have not identified additional suspects or released court documents describing the alleged cargo theft. The department said the Hancock County Prosecutor’s Office will determine whether Kumar will face additional criminal charges in Indiana related to the traffic stop and the evidence recovered during the search warrant.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/06/2026 - 11:25

Saudi Arabia Sells Oil At A Discount For The First Time Since COVID Crash, As China Demand Collapses

We previously discussed the unprecedented collapse observed in recent months in Chinese oil demand and imports, which led to the bizarre scenario where even Iran can't find buyers (read China) for its temporarily unsanctioned oil armada (see "Iran Runs Into Big Problem: No Buyers For Its Oil, As Full Tankers Pile Up Off China") and which prompted even JPM to point out that something bigger is going on behind the scenes.

"The scale of China's oil demand collapse has been so dramatic that Chinese policymakers are reportedly examining whether this historic slump reflects a temporary response to elevated global prices or a more structural shift in consumption patterns." - JPM

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 4, 2026

Understandably, with such a huge source of demand sidelined, today Bloomberg reported that Saudi Arabia has made big reductions to its main crude oil prices for buyers in Asia, selling barrels at a discount for the first time since it embarked on a price war in 2020, as a surge of global supply heightens competition to find buyers.

State producer Saudi Aramco will lower Arab Light oil for next month by $11 a barrel to a $1.50 discount over the regional benchmark, according to a price list seen by Bloomberg. The last two times it sold the grade at a discount were during price wars in 2020 and 2015.

The large drop in prices, the biggest in at least 26 years, follows a surge at the height of the Iran war when the disruption to the Strait of Hormuz restricted the kingdom’s flows; it is also bigger than the $8 decline expected in a Bloomberg survey.

The surprise price cut underscores the surging volumes of oil that are now available on global markets, as the interim US-Iran peace deal enables Gulf producers to ramp up exports at the same time as a flood of trapped barrels escape through the Strait of Hormuz. The size of the cutback also raises questions whether other Middle East producers might be forced into steeper cuts to their prices as they compete for customers (mostly China, as India is quite happy importing cheap Russian oil) that are inundated with supply.

Aramco’s August prices are for buyers who purchase crude on long-term contracts, the main way in which the kingdom markets its barrels. Some traders who spoke to Bloomberg said even with such a large reduction, the barrels are more expensive than spot supplies from other regional producers that are available for immediate purchase on an adhoc basis.

According to Bloomberg, official prices from other producers in the region are expected to be released in the coming days.

Oil has plunged since the agreement between US and Iran came into effect in the middle of June, allowing traffic to resume through the Strait of Hormuz, the key chokepoint that had been largely blocked since the start of hostilities. Brent crude has given up all its wartime gains, and was trading below $72 a barrel on Tuesday.

Before the war, Saudi Arabia loaded most of its crude from within the Persian Gulf. However, Aramco diverted a chunk of those flows to its Red Sea facility at Yanbu as the war effectively blocked Hormuz. The kingdom made the rare move of selling some cargoes on a so-called spot basis in recent days, as it got resumed flows of shipments that had been trapped inside the Persian Gulf.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/06/2026 - 11:10

'Restraining Order Needed': Trump Again Taunts Italy's Meloni, Ahead Of NATO Summit

There's no time like the eve of the major annual NATO summit for Trump to reignite his longstanding feud with Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni, apparently. The American President blasted out the below Truth Social just before heading to Ankara, Turkey for the gathering of NATO heads...

With just a few days to go before the next NATO summit, POTUS Donald Trump has once again attacked the Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni.

He portrays her as worshipful and calls for a “restraining order” to be imposed on her.

A few weeks ago, Trump had said that Meloni… pic.twitter.com/hHJTn8yCra

— Crazy Ass Moments in Italian Politics (@CrazyItalianPol) July 5, 2026

The doctored image featuring the caption "Restraining order needed" marks but the latest escalation between to the two leaders. Meloni has not responded or commented directly regarding the Truth Social Post, and is unlikely to given that Italy likely wants to avoid escalation.

"People come and go but relations must endure," Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto remarked on the prime minister still being in Trump's crosshairs to news channel Sky TG24. And Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani tried to brush it off while presenting an optimistic picture of future relations, saying he was "sure that transatlantic relations go well beyond individual comments."

This new post follows on another Truth Social post from June, in which Trump accused the Italian PM of asking for a picture with him "over and over" at the G7 Summit in France.

At heart of the feud is Italy's breaking with Trump over his Iran operation. This has included denying shared base usage for American military flights connected with Operation Epic Fury.

Trump had claimed earlier in the summer of Meloni, "She is doing poorly in Italy with her level of popularity, possibly because she turned down the United States of America, a Country that truly loves and protects Italy, when it came to denying Iran from obtaining or developing a Nuclear Weapon."

He then suggested that Meloni wanted to be "friends again" to get her "numbers up" - but has appeared to stipulate that she must fully open up Italian bases for US aircraft usage once again.

Meloni in response to the prior June post slammed the US president for his "senseless" and "constant, unprovoked attacks".

via Anadolu Agency

"As for my popularity, being your friend has certainly not helped it, nor does it depend on my relationship with you," she shot back. "My popularity is none of your concern. I suggest you focus on yours."

All of this could serve to make any close-quarter contact at the NATO summit in Ankara very awkward - also as the two will certainly be in the same general vicinity for events like the group photo.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/06/2026 - 10:35

US Services Surveys Show Continued Expansion In June: Jobs Up, Inflation Down

Following US manufacturing small dip in June (though still expanding), the US Services sector PMI surveys are a little more mixed but both still solidly in expansion in June:

• S&P Global US Services PMI ticking up on the month from 50.7 to 51.2 (but a smidge below the 51.3 flash print)

• ISM US Services PMI dipped from 54.5 to 54 (in line with expectations)

“A slight acceleration of business growth in the services economy takes the expansion to the strongest since the outbreak of the war in the Middle East," says Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, "though the pace of growth remains lacklustre compared to that seen at the start of the year before the conflict."

The survey data are hence broadly indicative of the economy only growing at a 1.2% annualized rate over the second quarter...

Similarly, while business growth expectations for the year ahead improved in June, they remained subdued compared to that seen prior to the war as businesses lack clarity over the outlook, both from economic and geopolitical contexts.

Here's what ISM Respondents are saying...

• “We continue to experience higher prices due to the Persian Gulf conflict through rising diesel fuel costs and increased input costs for resin-based packaging. The brunt of the impact will be experienced in the third quarter (Q3) of 2026, but we are feeling the impact now. Suppliers are aggressively attempting to pass through price increases.” [Accommodation & Food Services]

• “Extreme drought in Virginia is creating financial problems for farmers and the agricultural industry. Dramatically reduced spring crops harvest has created significant cost increases in feed expense. The barley grain crop was nearly totally lost due to the early hot weather and spring freeze. High fertilizer cost increases due to the war in Iran and increased freight cost has driven cost for crops above breakeven levels on many farms. Many dairy farmers are struggling with crop shortages, high input cost and below milk price breakeven. The financial stress from higher cost due to the Iran war and drought-related forage losses has resulted in decreased spending in the agricultural sector.” [Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting]

• “In general, our company (commercial construction) is doing well. Pipeline is healthy for current and future work. Material pricing is higher and lead times on certain components in support of data center piping is elongating.” [Construction]

• “In addition to the known semiconductor manufacturing issue, now there are concerns regarding memory availability that is materially impacting our OEM’s purchasing patterns, which is affecting availability and driving my company’s purchasing decisions, including how much longer we are sweating our assets, how frequently we refresh, and how we approach maintenance contracts.” [Finance & Insurance]

• “Despite economic headwinds like persistent inflation, patient volumes and overall business activity remain strong reflected mainly by outstanding revenue performance. Supply chains remain resilient as well; back orders are at a historical low, and few if any critical products are experiencing difficulties. Labor is steady, as we continue to add full-time workers while the forecast remains positive. Given the continuation of the conflict in the Middle East, we are beginning to hear that cost of goods increases are on the horizon but have yet to materialize. Cost increases are in focus for the next quarter.” [Health Care & Social Assistance]

• “From a strategic supply chain perspective, we are seeing increased complexity in managing total landed cost due to tariffs, import/export constraints and duty recovery mechanisms, requiring more proactive coordination across sourcing, logistics and compliance teams. Recent discussions internally also highlight the impact of tariff programs and duty drawback evaluations on purchasing strategies.” [Mining]

• “Demand remains strong in infrastructure, environmental, and resilience projects, while procurement faces persistent labor inflation, supplier capacity constraints, and regulatory complexity—particularly in California and other high-cost markets. Labor-driven categories remain elevated despite easing goods inflation. The impact is higher rates, longer lead times, and increased importance of capacity assurance vs. lowest-cost sourcing.” [Professional, Scientific & Technical Services]

• “Business has been very strong during what is usually a less active time of the year. Pricing is stable, and employment just where we want it to be. Supply chain strong with no challenges.” [Retail Trade]

• “The utility industry continues to experience extended lead times, supply-chain constraints, material shortages, and pricing volatility. As a result, suppliers are often limiting quotation validity periods, with many RFQs carrying expiration dates as short as 24 hours. These conditions require timely evaluation and procurement decisions to mitigate the risk of price changes and availability issues.” [Utilities]

• “We are experiencing continued sequential top-line growth driven mostly by increased prices.” [Wholesale Trade]

• “In addition to the known semiconductor manufacturing issue, now there are concerns regarding memory availability that is materially impacting our OEM’s purchasing patterns, which is affecting availability and driving my company’s purchasing decisions, including how much longer we are sweating our assets, how frequently we refresh, and how we approach maintenance contracts.” [Finance & Insurance]

Williamson notes that the prospect of higher interest rates also acted as a further headwind to growth, notably in the financial service sector, where business expectations remain especially muted, adding that “a key underlying factor behind the relatively subdued performance of the services economy was again elevated price pressures."

Although easing slightly, aided largely by lower oil prices, costs continued to rise at a steep rate in June, driving up rates levied for services.

Customer push-back against these high prices was again widely reported, most notably in consumer-facing businesses.

But Williamson concludes that "consumer-facing companies are nevertheless reporting that further price falls should help stimulate sales in the months ahead, providing a ray of hope for both the growth and inflation outlooks.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/06/2026 - 10:10

Key Events This Week: ISM, FOMC Minutes And Fed Speakers

The week after payrolls is usually a quieter affair but there's plenty of global events even if the US calendar is light.

In terms of the main highlights, given the current focus on monetary policy the FOMC minutes (Wednesday) and the ECB’s June meeting account (Thursday) will be carefully watched, especially the former given it was the first of the new Warsh regime. Speeches from Fed Governors Waller (Monday), Williams and Logan (Thursday) will provide a more "live" update to the committees' thinking. Elsewhere, China inflation data (Thursday) and a run of German activity indicators including factory orders (today), industrial production (tomorrow) and trade (Thursday) are worth tracking. German reforms in recent weeks have offered some renewed optimism that we will finally see the benefits of the huge fiscal spending and reform agenda after skepticism had been building. Geopolitically, the NATO summit (Tuesday–Wednesday) will also be in focus, with Trump in attendance, and could generate plenty of headlines.

In terms of other data and events, today sees ISM services (Monday) which follows the recent weakness in manufacturing, where DB economists expect a modest improvement. Most of the other data in the US is second tier but includes existing home sales on Thursday. Outside of the US, the BoE’s financial stability report (tomorrow) will be interesting, while inflation prints from Sweden (Wednesday) and Denmark and Norway (Friday) deserve a glance. In Japan, the data flow includes labor cash earnings and household spending (tomorrow), the Economy Watchers survey (Wednesday) and PPI (Friday). Elsewhere, we will see the RBNZ policy decision (Wednesday), where economists expect a rate hike, and Canada’s labor market report (Friday).

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday July 6

• Data: US June ISM services, UK June new car registrations, construction PMI, Germany May factory orders, June construction PMI, Eurozone May PPI, retail sales, Canada June services PMI
• Central banks: Fed’s Waller speaks, ECB's Schnabel, Wunsch and Lane speak, BoE’s Mann speaks, BoC business outlook

Tuesday July 7

• Data: US May trade balance, China June foreign reserves, Japan May labor cash earnings, household spending, leading index, coincident index, Germany May industrial production, France May trade balance, Canada May international merchandise trade
• Central banks: ECB's Panetta and Kocher speak, BoE’s financial stability report
• Auctions: US 3-yr Notes ($58bn)
• Other: NATO summit (through July 8), French Court ruling on Marine Le Pen’s eligibility to run for President

Wednesday July 8

• Data: US May wholesale trade sales, consumer credit, Japan May BoP current account balance, BoP trade balance, June bank lending, Economy Watchers survey, France May current account balance, Sweden June CPI, May GDP indicator 
• Central banks: FOMC minutes, ECB's Kocher, Moulin, Nagel and Dolenc speak, RBNZ decision
• Auctions: US 10-yr Notes (reopening, $39bn)

Thursday July 9

• Data: US June existing home sales, initial jobless claims, China June CPI, PPI, UK June RICS house price balance, Japan June M2, M3, machine tool orders, Germany May trade balance
• Central banks: ECB’s account of the June meeting, Fed's Williams and Logan speak, BoE’s Breeden speaks
• Earnings: PepsiCo
• Auctions: US 30-yr Bond (reopening, $22bn)

Friday July 10

• Data: Japan June PPI, Italy May industrial production, Canada June labour force survey, May building permits, Denmark June CPI, Norway June CPI
• Central banks: ECB’s Vujcic and Stournaras speak
• Earnings: Delta Air Lines

Looking at the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data release this week is the ISM services index on Monday. There are a few speaking engagements with Fed officials this week, including events with Governor Waller and Presidents Williams and Logan. The minutes to the FOMC’s June meeting will be released on Wednesday.

Monday, July 6 

• 09:45 AM S&P Global US services PMI, June final (consensus 51.3, last 51.3)
• 10:00 AM ISM services index, June (GS 54.0, consensus 54.0, last 54.5): We estimate that the ISM services index declined to 54.0 in June. Our non-manufacturing survey tracker was unchanged in June but remained below the latest ISM services reading at 52.9.
• 11:00 AM Fed Governor Waller speaks: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will take part in a policy panel at a conference in Rome. On May 22, Waller said that while he did not think the FOMC should hike “in the near future,” he could “no longer rule out rate hikes further down the road if inflation does not abate soon,” especially if inflation expectations showed “signs of becoming unanchored.” At the same time, Waller said there would need to be “improvement on inflation or a significant deterioration in the labor market” for him to support cuts. 

Tuesday, July 7 

• 08:30 AM Trade balance, May (GS -$78.5bn, consensus -$78.8bn, last -$55.9bn)

Wednesday, July 8 

• 10:00 AM Wholesale inventories, May final (last +0.3%)
• 02:00 PM FOMC meeting minutes, June 16-17 meeting: The FOMC left the funds rate unchanged at 3.5-3.75% and removed the previous forward guidance suggesting cuts from its statement at the June FOMC meeting. But the meeting delivered a hawkish surprise, with nine participants projecting a hike in 2026 (vs. our expectation of three). That said, we suspect that FOMC participants treated the news about a deal with Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz—which emerged only a few days before the meeting—cautiously. Chairman Warsh also noted earlier this week that “inflation expectations have come down, and inflation risks have come down” at a panel discussion in Sintra, Portugal. We will look for details in the minutes on the assumptions underlying participants’ economic outlook and views of the balance of risks at the time.

Thursday, July 9 

• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended July 3 (GS 225k, consensus 220k, last 215k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended June 27 (consensus 1,815k, last 1,814k)
• 09:00 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will take part in a moderated discussion at a conference on market liquidity and functioning hosted by the New York Fed and The Clark Center for Global Markets at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. On June 25, Williams said that the current stance of monetary policy was “well positioned” to restore inflation to the Fed’s 2% target. Williams said he expected inflation to “edge down” as tariff effects faded, supply disruptions from the Middle East got resolved, and slow rent growth translated into a lower pace of shelter inflation. He noted that medium-term inflation expectations “have remained well anchored through May.” 
• 10:00 AM Existing home sales, June (GS +2.5%, consensus +0.7%, last +3.2%)
• 01:30 PM Dallas Fed President Logan (FOMC voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will moderate a panel on market liquidity at a conference hosted by the New York Fed and The Clark Center for Global Markets at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. On June 3, Logan noted that “inflation appears to be trending toward the mid 2’s—not all the way back to 2 percent” and that “above-target inflation can become entrenched if it persists too long.” At the same time, Logan said economic activity “remains strong,” financial conditions are “accommodative,” and the labor market “appears stable and broadly balanced.” Logan stressed she was “increasingly concerned that higher interest rates could be necessary later this year to fully restore price stability and appropriately balance both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate.”

Friday, July 10 

• There are no major economic data releases scheduled.

Source: DB, GS, Barc

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/06/2026 - 09:45

Russia & Ukraine Trade Some Of Biggest Strikes Of War On Eve Of NATO Summit

Russia has unleashed another massive drone and missile attack wave on Ukraine's capital, just on the eve of the major annual NATO summit, which is in Ankara, Turkey this week.

Over a dozen people were killed, with heavy damage against residential structures observed. The death toll could rise, but "In total, 14 people have died and 117 have been injured in Kyiv," the office of the attorney general said on Monday morning. Rescue crews have been retrieving bodies from under rubble throughout Monday.

via Associated Press

The Russian Defense ‌Ministry announced that it used long-range weapons ‌and drones to carry out a "massive" attack on ​Kiev and other cities, saying that military bases and energy facilities were successfully struck.

According to details of the timing of the attack wave:

The Kyiv Independent reported that the first explosions were heard at about 1:40am local time, followed by more strikes at 2:10am and 3:15am.

Thousands of residents fled to underground shelters, it reported, as air raid sirens sounded across Ukraine. At least 15 buildings were damaged in Kyiv in the strikes, including four in the capital’s historic Podilskyi district, Tkachenko said.

As for the significant numbers of projectiles focused on the Ukrainian capital alone, another source reports:

Ukraine's air force said Russia used 68 missiles, including 23 ballistic and six super and hypersonic missiles, as well as 351 drones in the attack. Air force units shot down or neutralized 37 missiles and 326 drones, but none of the ballistic missiles or super and hypersonic missiles, the air force data showed.

Neighboring Poland briefly scrambled fighter ​jets as a preventive measure.

Rumors of warehouse with depleted uranium having been struck...

According to Kyiv sources, Russia may hit a military warehouse with depleted uranium-238 ammunition. This is why residents were ordered to stay indoors and keep windows closed. The small town of Vyshneve is being fully evacuated. The detonation is still ongoing.

This could have… pic.twitter.com/LlZQFlDxsB

— Diana Panchenko 🇺🇦 (@Panchenko_X) July 6, 2026

Rumors persist...

DEPLETED URANIUM FEARS AFTER STRIKE NEAR kiev: 600 EVACUATED

More than 600 people have reportedly been evacuated from the outskirts of kiev following an overnight strike on a storage facility containing depleted uranium ammunition for Abrams tanks.

The depot, located in the… pic.twitter.com/pePX4wsWxU

— Russian Market (@runews) July 6, 2026

But Ukraine has been launching its own significant drone salvos against Russia, with devastating effect against its energy infrastructure.

In its second large-scale attack in under a week, drones were sent against an oil terminal and port in St. Petersburg, with damage being observed in the Baltic Sea ports of Vysotsk and Ust-Luga. More attacks also impacted Sevastopol on the Black Sea, resulting in a power blackout there.

Russia hit something big in Kiev pic.twitter.com/YFAeX2QFU8

— Glenn Diesen (@Glenn_Diesen) July 6, 2026

According to some further details in CBNC being reported:

Ukrainian officials reported that forces struck a major oil terminal in Russia’s second-largest city, St. Petersburg, as well as the Kronstadt Naval Base, the main base of the Russian Baltic Fleet, on Friday and Saturday. The attacks reportedly caused fires at both the oil terminal and the military facility.

Further Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure were reported on Monday morning. Ukraine’s military said via Telegram that it had struck oil refineries in Russia’s Yaroslavl and Leningrad regions overnight. CNBC couldn’t independently verify the report.

It was only on Saturday that President Trump said he had a "business-like and constructive" nearly 90-minute phone call with his Russian counterpart Putin.

The prospect of renewed US mediation efforts to find peace in the Ukraine conflict was discussed, and Trump was even (once again) invited to visit Russia for an in-person summit.

Ukrainian drone attacks damaged Russia’s Baltic Sea ports of Vysotsk and Ust-Luga, a major oil export outlet, Reuters reported. Leningrad region’s governor claimed 56 drones were downed, with debris recorded near Ust-Luga port and the Luga training ground. #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/8QJ5zKEoSN

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) July 6, 2026

While the prospect of renewed talks and diplomatic effort was raised, the two warring sides seem further from dialogue than ever, and the Zelensky government is finally sensing that it has found a 'weak point' - hammering Russian energy and creating a national fuel shortage crisis.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/06/2026 - 09:30

When A Toll Isn't A Toll

By Benjamin Picton, senior market strategist at Rabobank

When A Toll Isn't A Toll

Yields on 10-year Treasuries finished last week up 11bps to 4.48% while yields on 10-year Bunds rose 8.5bps to 2.93%. Those higher borrowing costs came despite signs of weakening in the US jobs market, a weaker-than-expected prices paid figure on the ISM manufacturing index, and a surprisingly weak Eurozone CPI inflation report that follows in the wake of lower than expected inflation readings in the UK.

Market-based expectations of the future path of the Fed Funds rate finished the week a little lower than it started, with pricing of a future rate hike pushed out from October to December. 2-year Treasury yields fell by almost 4bps on Thursday after the payrolls report confirmed hiring in June was little better than half the expected figure.

This was still enough for the unemployment rate to tick down to 4.2% as a lower participation rate saw the labor force contract. Nevertheless, 2-year yields were higher across the week as sovereign curves bear-steepened.

Brent crude posted its first weekly gain in almost a month last week to see the front contract close up 0.18% at $72.12/bbl. The gains appear to have been short-lived as news of continued tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz and a decision by OPEC+ over the weekend to ease production restrictions by 188,000 barrels/day from August steer the price action lower this morning. Announcements of increased production are all well and good, but when much of that production is occurring in the Persian Gulf or in Russia (where Ukrainian strikes against oil infrastructure are ongoing) the ability to actually ship the product to market will remain the critical limiting factor.

On that note, official figures show that Hormuz traffic is back to approximately 30% of pre-war levels, though this likely understates the true picture as many vessels are transiting dark (i.e. without their tracking systems on) to avoid the attentions of Iran’s IRGC. Bloomberg reports that six vessels transited the route closest to the Omani coastline under US auspices on Sunday without incident. That follows reports of up to eight vessels performing u-turns (with some later being redirected through the Iranian route) after attempting to transit close to Oman on Friday and Saturday.

Updated data from Kpler and Vortexa shows that crude exports from the UAE surged in June to exceed pre-war levels and approach record highs. The UAE’s recent decision to leave OPEC and OPEC+ is considered bearish over the longer term for energy prices as a diminished share of potential production is subject to non-market constraints.

On the other hand, Iran again indicated over the weekend that it will be instituting “service fees” on vessels transiting Hormuz through its territorial waters once the 60-day negotiating period kicked-off by the signing of the Iran-US memorandum of understanding expires. According to Iran’s ambassador to China a new fee regime is being designed in consultation with Oman and will include “special considerations” for China and other friendly nations in determining the level and type of fee applied. According to the ambassador, this is not a toll. This might prove be a convenient fiction for all parties given President Trump’s unyielding view that a permanent toll regime would not be acceptable after the 60-day negotiating period expires.

Critically, what this little titbit sets up is exactly the type of scenario we have been pointing towards for some time: the ‘oil market’ splitting into ‘oil markets’ with terms over pricing and access being determined by which geopolitical camp you happen to sit in, and a series of quid pro quos informing the deal that each party gets.

The prime movers here are the United States and China, with Iran having clearly chosen China and the UAE hitching its wagon to the US of A. An easy tell that this scenario is playing out will be pressure from Iran to have other Gulf producers accept a toll that isn’t a toll, and/or have their cargoes priced in CNY rather than USD. The USA, similarly, will pressure Gulf allies to price in Dollars and normalize relations with Israel to expand the Abraham Accords and have oil flow from east to west to cut out Iran entirely and demonstrate to China that Uncle Sam can step on the hose whenever he likes.

Europe and the balance of Asia are likely to be reduced to the role of spectators in these affairs. Highlighting the weakness of Europe’s current position in the Great Game, the Wall Street Journal carried a story last week on how the German Mittelstand is being decimated by state-backed Chinese competition, with the most energy-exposed sectors of the manufacturing economy faring particularly badly.

To a certain extent, the hollowing out of German industry at the hands of China mirrors the hollowing-out of British finance at the hands of the United States as more and more firms choose to list in New York in pursuit of higher multiples or are bought-up as value picks. This has elicited a response from the British Government in the form of the Mansion House compact aimed at encouraging pension funds to hold more British assets. If that fails, will the discussion then turn to capital controls under an Andy Burnham premiership?

Similarly, the rapid decline of the German Mittelstand will almost certainly elicit further protectionist measures from officials in Brussels who have just spent the last 18 months and more criticizing Washington for taking similar steps to protect American industry. In the absence of a hold-your-nose peace accord with Russia to reduce energy costs that will almost certainly not happen, what is Europe’s grand macro strategy to avoid being de-industrialised by China and vassalized by US energy and finance?

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/06/2026 - 09:15

Porsche To Eliminate 4,000 Jobs In Germany: Report

Germany was once the industrial engine of Europe, but years of disastrous climate change policies, high energy costs, and left-wing economic mismanagement have battered its manufacturing base. This pressure has been roiling the country's auto industry, where struggling carmakers are restructuring operations through workforce reductions, production cuts, and capacity reductions.

Germany's top financial newspaper, Handelsblatt, reports that Porsche is preparing another round of deep job cuts at its main factories as the sports car maker grapples with weak demand.

The company is considering eliminating as many as 4,000 additional jobs at its Zuffenhausen plant, the outlet said, citing people familiar with the matter. These reductions would come on top of previously agreed cuts impacting 3,900 jobs.

Porsche's Zuffenhausen plant in Stuttgart is home to the brand's core sports car production lines, including the 911, 718, and Taycan.

Administration and management roles are expected to be reduced the most, while Porsche may also cut capacity at its Weissach development site by up to 30%.

Last month, Porsche CEO Michael Leiters said the company plans to produce at a lower capacity than the roughly 280,000 cars sold last year. He stated that the company must "make money with fewer cars."

Porsche's profit eroded further in the first quarter as the automaker faced mounting pressure from tariffs, geopolitical turmoil, and gaps in its model lineup. The emergence of Chinese EV giants like BYD and Chery in Europe is another troubling development for EU automakers.

Porsche is part of the Volkswagen Group, where the VW CEO recently warned that more than 100,000 jobs could be eliminated in a massive overhaul.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/06/2026 - 09:00

Saylor's Strategy Sells 3,588 Bitcoin To Cover Preferred Dividends

Authored by Micah Zimmerman via Bitcoin Magazine.com,

Strategy sold 3,588 bitcoin for $216 million to fund dividends on its preferred securities, the company disclosed in a Form 8-K on July 6, 2026.

The sale marks the largest bitcoin disposal in the company’s history and its most direct admission that its dividend obligations now shape its treasury.

Chairman Michael Saylor posted about the transaction on social media. As of July 5, the company held 843,775 bitcoin in its reserves and $2.55 billion in cash. Saylor said the proceeds covered second-quarter dividends on four preferred instruments and the full June payment on a fifth.

The disclosed sale funded quarterly dividends on STRF, STRE, STRK, and STRD. It also covered the monthly dividend on STRC. Together these securities form the core of what Strategy calls its Digital Credit business.

Each instrument carries a distinct payout structure. STRF, the senior tier, pays a fixed 10% annual dividend on a $100 stated amount. STRE pays 10% a year on a €100 stated amount, denominated in euros. 

STRK pays 8% and converts to common stock if shares reach $1,000. STRD pays 10% but is not cumulative, giving the board room to skip a payment. 

STRC sits in the middle of the stack and pays a variable rate near 12%, reset to keep the security trading close to its $100 par. The board recently shifted STRC to semi-monthly payments.

None of the preferred securities is backed by the company’s bitcoin. Each holds only a claim on residual assets.

Why Strategy is selling

Strategy is the largest corporate holder of bitcoin. The company has built its treasury through repeated stock and debt offerings. Its bitcoin sits at a cost basis near $63.9 billion, or roughly $75,700 a coin.

That model created a growing cash bill. The preferred securities pay dividends in cash, not bitcoin. Strategy’s software business does not generate enough to cover them. 

Grayscale’s head of research, Zach Pandl, estimated the annual dividend load at $1.5 billion. When cash reserves run short, the company must raise more capital or sell coins.

For years Saylor pledged to never sell. That stance ended in late May 2026. Strategy sold 32 bitcoin for about $2.5 million, its first disposal since 2022, to fund preferred dividends. 

The move broke the pledge and drew wide attention. Saylor framed it as a signal of commitment to preferred holders rather than a retreat from bitcoin. “Our goal is to make STRC the best credit instrument in the world,” he said at the time.

The July sale dwarfs that first step. At 3,588 coins and $216 million, it is roughly a hundred times larger.

According to the company’s latest filing, Strategy sold 3,588 Bitcoin between June 29 and July 5. About 1,363 Bitcoin were sold during the first two days of the program at an average price around $59,256, with another 2,225 Bitcoin sold over the following five days at $60,773.

Buying and selling at once

Strategy continues to accumulate even as it sells. After the May sale, the company bought 1,550 bitcoin for $101.3 million, nearly 50 times the size of the disposal. It made a $2 billion purchase in May and a $2.54 billion purchase in April. 

The pattern shows a firm that funds dividends from its stack while adding to it through fresh capital raises.

That approach depends on market access. Strategy can issue new preferred shares and common stock to raise cash. When those markets cooperate, the company avoids large sales. When they tighten, bitcoin becomes the source of funds. 

The July disposal suggests the second condition held during the quarter.

Last night, Saylor posted “Bitcoin is Digital Energy” on X, accompanied by Strategy’s orange-dot Bitcoin acquisition chart, prompting expectations that another SEC filing disclosing a new Bitcoin purchase is imminent. Traders have come to view these weekend posts as a recurring signal ahead of Strategy’s BTC accumulation announcements. This time, the announcement was about a bitcoin sale.

At the time of writing, Strategy shares are down 2% in premarket and bitcoin has dipped below $62,000.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/06/2026 - 08:47

Futures Rise As Tech Rebounds In Post-Holiday Catch Up

US equity futures point to a firmer cash open as traders return from the long weekend, but the bigger question is whether investors continue to rotate out of the crowded AI trade and into the broader market.  As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures rise 0.4%, while Nasdaq 100 contract rise 1.1% as most Mag 7 names are in the green.  In premarket trading, chip/memory stocks rebound from last week's rout which follows the an 18% plunge in the GS High Beta Momentum (GSPRHIMO) basket over the last two sessions, on track for 2nd worst month in >15 years. This follows an APAC session on Monday which took a more downbeat view of the tech sector; South Korea’s Kospi index fell, having gained as much as 3% earlier. Memory chipmaker Samsung Electronics’s preliminary earnings Tuesday will provide further clues on demand for AI infrastructure and the durability of the sector’s growth narrative. The MSCI APAC index fell as much as 0.7% before returning to the unchanged mark. The Stoxx 600 has just slipped into negative territory, down 0.1%, after hitting another record high earlier in the session. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.2% with the greenback firmer versus most G10 peers. Gains are most pronounced against the yen with USD/JPY venturing as high as 162.31 but still below last week’s multi-decade peak at 162.84. Treasuries are seeing a modest bid with the 10-year yield down 2 basis points at 4.46%. Oil prices fell as flows through the Strait of Hormuz persisted and OPEC+ signaled higher supplies, with Brent trading about 0.4% lower at $71.82 a barrel. Precious metals are on the back foot with spot gold and silver posting respective losses of 0.8% and 0.7%. Bitcoin is down 0.1%. Today's US economic data calendar includes June final S&P Global US services PMI (9:45am) and June ISM services (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Waller at 11am

In premarket trading, Mag 7 names are mostly higher (Meta +1.4%, Tesla +1.3%, Amazon +0.7%, Alphabet +0.5%, Nvidia +0.3%, Microsoft is unchanged, Apple -0.6%). Chipmakers and other AI-related firms rise ahead of Samsung’s June quarter earnings and updates to SK Hynix Inc.’s massive ADR listing.

• Alibaba ADRs (BABA) inch about 1% higher after a federal judge ordered the Pentagon to give the company a reprieve from a law that caused all of its lobbyists to drop it as a client.
• Datadog (DDOG) falls 2.4% after Bernstein downgraded the software company to market perform, citing caution about the company’s earnings prospects.
• JB Hunt (JBHT) slips 1% after Morgan Stanley cut the recommendation on the freight carrier to underweight, saying the stock’s valuation is “unjustifiable” after a rally.
• Kosmos Energy (KOS) rises 4% after the firm provided updated guidance with second-quarter production at its Jubilee oil field in Ghana reaching about 72,000 barrels of oil per day.
• Opus Genetics (IRD) rises 2% after saying it reached alignment with the FDA on the design of its Phase 3 trial evaluating OPGx-LCA5 for LCA5-associated inherited retinal disease.
• Seer (SEER) climbs 33% after CEO Omid Farokhzad offered to buy the a biotechnology company.
• Zim Integrated’s US shares (ZIM) are down 6% after Ynet reported Sunday that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said a proposed sale was “not on the agenda,” without clarifying how it got the information.

This week presents key tests for tech leadership. SpaceX joins the Nasdaq 100 on Tuesday, likely prompting index-related repositioning. That same day, Samsung’s preliminary earnings are due. Then on Friday comes SK Hynix’s Nasdaq listing, which could be the biggest-ever first-time share sale by a foreign company. 

The events will take on added significance in a week that features a thin data calendar, while the US earnings season is yet to kick into gear. Global stocks have gone through a stretch of uneven trading as investors question whether the past quarter’s AI-driven rally has run too far and whether vast capital outlays are guaranteed to produce strong returns.

The macro calendar picks up on Wednesday with minutes from the Fed’s June meeting. They take on added significance after Warsh shortened the policy statement and declined to contribute to rate forecasts. Bloomberg Economics’ Andrew Sacher expects the account to reinforce the commitee’s focus on above-target inflation and its preference to preserve the option of further tightening. Further detail about Fed-think will likely guide equity positioning into the upcoming earnings season. BNY strategist Geoffrey Yu says the question is whether the Fed can stay patient without seeing inflation risks reemerge. 

Separately, SpaceX is due to join the Nasdaq 100 on Tuesday, an inclusion that may trigger some index-related repositioning.

“Speculative positioning in semiconductors and other hot technology themes is likely to continue being reduced,” said Roberto Scholtes, head of strategy at Singular Bank. “The key question will be whether this triggers a rotation into lagging sectors or a broader correction.”

Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson thinks the market broadening story continues to gain momentum as chips underperform; he believes US stocks will struggle to reach new highs as investors rotate out of some of this year’s biggest tech trades. Wilson says momentum is fading in semiconductor stocks as investors shift toward laggards, including AI hyperscalers.  The steep fall in oil has helped to stabilize rates, which is another driver of the rotation to lagging areas of the market, he adds. He favors AI hyperscalers, consumer discretionary goods, transports, and biotech.

For Kokou Agbo-Bloua, global head of research at Societe Generale Corporate and Investment Banking, the market is increasingly learning to live with short-term volatility. “I wonder whether the market is becoming a bit more anti-fragile, in the sense of adapting the news flow and seeing through the noise and focusing on the fundamentals, especially with the whole AI boom and the ecosystem around it,” he said.

In a week with few major data releases, the key variable for Treasuries would be oil prices, said Francisco Simon, European head of strategy at Santander Asset Management. “Specifically, whether the recent downward trend remains in place and whether the newsflow around energy markets continues to stabilize,” Simon said. “Central bank communication could also move markets, although in the absence of significant new developments we would not expect a major shift in tone.”

Defense is also back on traders’ radar ahead of the two-day NATO summit starting in Turkey tomorrow. Trump meets Ukraine’s Zelenskyy there on Wednesday.

European shares slip following Friday’s record close. Stoxx 600 falls 0.2% to 651.15 as investors digest a slate of M&A news, with EasyJet jumping after agreeing to a takeover offer from Castlelake. ITV rose after agreeing to sell an arm to Sky, while Thales has said it wants to buy Exail. Media stocks are outperforming, followed by autos. Utilities and construction sectors are the biggest laggards. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:

• EasyJet shares jump as much as 11% after the budget airline accepted a takeover offer from US private equity firm Castlelake at 690p a share.
• Carlsberg shares gain as much as 3.7% after the Danish brewer and Sapporo agreed to form a strategic joint venture.
• DWS and Amundi shares rise to record highs after Morgan Stanley and Citi raise their price targets on the asset management firms.
• Schott Pharma jumps as much as 11% after Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock to buy from hold, citing accelerating growth for the German pharma packaging company in 3Q and 4Q, accompanied by improving margins.
• Nemetschek shares rise as much as 5.7% after Deutsche Bank resumed coverage of the software company with a buy recommendation.
• ITV shares rise as much as 2.4% after the company agreed to sell its Media and Entertainment arm to Sky.
• JCDecaux shares rise as much as 3.8% as Oddo BHF (outperform) says it expects the outdoor advertising company’s second-quarter results to turn out better than expected due to the end of the conflict in the Middle East.
• OC Oerlikon gains as much as 9.5% as Oddo BHF upgrades the Swiss industrial technology company to outperform from neutral on increased estimates for FY26 that exceed the company’s own guidance.
• Exail shares rise as much as 4.2% after Thales said it intends to make a tender offer for the French maker of mine-destroying sea drones following its agreement to buy the Gorgé family’s 35.51% stake.
• BE Semiconductor shares slip as much as 7.7% on Monday after South Korea news outlet ZDNet reported that chipmakers may further delay the full adoption of an advanced chip packaging technology.
• Close Brothers Group declined as much as 9.3%, after JPMorgan downgraded to sector perform from outperform, saying that the UK motor finance issue has become increasingly uncertain.

Stocks in Asia fluctuated, with Samsung Electronics to come under scrutiny when the chipmaker releases earnings on Tuesday after a 165% year-to-date rally. The report will be followed days later by SK Hynix Inc.’s $28 billion US listing.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index swung between narrow gains and losses. South Korea’s Kospi index fell, having gained as much as 3% earlier. Memory chipmaker Samsung Electronics Co.’s preliminary earnings Tuesday will provide further clues on demand for AI infrastructure and the durability of the sector’s growth narrative. “The market is in a holding pattern ahead of Samsung’s preliminary results, which is the centerpiece of what’s shaping up to be a semiconductor super week,” said Dilin Wu, a strategist at Pepperstone Group. If the results disappoint, “the conversation shifts to whether this is a cyclical pause or the beginning of something more structural.”  Bucking the trend, Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong rose for a third day, up more than 1%. Tencent Holdings was the top contributor, after JPMorgan said it expects its stock to rebound thanks to its AI agent launch in Weixin. Japan’s Topix index rose to another all-time high, supported by defense stocks on signs of government policy tailwinds.  In South Korea, the government is looking at creating an investment fund using excess tax revenue from the semiconductor industry to finance long-term economic growth, according to a senior official. Investors are also turning their attention to SK Hynix Inc.’s listing of $29 billion American depositary receipts later this week. Here Are the Most Notable Movers

• Tencent shares rise after JPMorgan said it expects the company’s stock price to rebound thanks to its AI agent launch in Weixin. Chinese brokerage stocks rise on earnings optimism.
• Shares of Sanrio, owner of the Hello Kitty brand, climbed 6.2% after an analyst report touted an increase in social media followers of its intellectual property.
• Shares of Kanzhun rise as much as 4.8% after JPMorgan initiates coverage on its H-share with an overweight rating, saying AI will be a major driver in increasing the online recruitment company’s long-term average revenue per use.
• Shenzhen Xunce Technology shares rise as much as 15% in Hong Kong after the company said it entered into a MOU on strategic cooperation with Gechuang Dongzhi (Shenzhen) Technology to expand data tokenization capabilities into industrial smart manufacturing.
• Shanghai Biren Technology shares fall as much as 9.9% to the lowest since May 19 after the company raised HK$7.07 billion ($901 million) in gross proceeds by placing 153 million new H shares at HK$46.20 each.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.2% with the greenback firmer versus most G10 peers. Gains are most pronounced against the yen with USD/JPY venturing as high as 162.31 but still below last week’s multi-decade peak at 162.84. The yen lost ground against all major currencies as traders tested the resolve of Japanese authorities to intervene. Goldman Sachs joined the growing ranks of investors and strategists who are increasingly bearish on the yen, which is already trading around its lowest levels since 1986. The Wall Street bank revised its 12-month forecast to 165 from 155, reflecting fiscal pressures in Japan, higher-for-longer Treasury yields and only gradual rate hikes from the Bank of Japan, strategist Karen Reichgott Fishman noted.  

In rates, treasuries are seeing a modest bid with the 10-year yield down 2 basis points at 4.46%. Treasury futures hold small gains accumulated during Asia session and London morning, led by front-end and belly tenors as oil prices remain near three-month lows and stock futures advance. US intermediate yields are 3bp-4bp richer on the day, steepening 5s30s spread by 2.5bp; 10-year, around 2bp richer near 4.46%, outperforms bunds and gilts in the sector by 2bp and 2.5bp respectively. IG dollar issuance slate includes a few names already. Dealer forecasts for this month are around $100 billion, with around $25 billion lined up for this week. This week’s Treasury auctions start Tuesday with $58 billion 3-year new issue, followed by $39 billion 10-year and $22 billion 30-year reopenings Wednesday and Thursday. US session includes June ISM services gauge and scheduled remarks by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller. 

In commodities, WTI oil is holding below $69 a barrel after seven OPEC+ members agreed on Sunday to increase their collective production quotas by a modest 188,000 barrels a day for next month, adding to the prospect of more supply eventually hitting the market if a US-Iran peace pact can stick. Shipping through a US-protected corridor in the Strait of Hormuz showed signs of recovery. Precious metals are on the back foot with spot gold and silver posting respective losses of 0.8% and 0.7%. Bitcoin slides back under $62000 on news Michael Saylor's Strategy sold 3,588 in the past week.   

US economic data calendar includes June final S&P Global US services PMI (9:45am) and June ISM services (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Waller at 11am. Bloomberg Economics expects the ISM services index to have remained in expansionary territory, but to have softened after jumping to 54.5 in May. A modest decline in orders growth likely led to a deceleration in production activity.

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• Shipping along a US-protected corridor near Oman in the Strait of Hormuz recovered after some vessels earlier performed unexplained U-turns and detours. OPEC+ backed another modest rise in quotas for next month. BBG
• Ukraine is striking Russian energy infrastructure at an unprecedented rate, according to an FT data analysis showing that Kyiv’s intensified drone campaign is spurring Russia’s worst fuel crisis in decades. FT
• Ukraine’s capital Kyiv came under a deadly Russian attack early Monday morning, on the eve of a critical NATO summit in Turkey that US President Donald Trump plans to attend. CNN
• World powers are pouring billions into AI, drones, hypersonic missiles and space technologies in a race to dominate the battlefields of the future. BBG
• A year ago, the message from many business leaders was that AI was going to wipe out jobs. For the past month or so, tech CEOs have been striking a more optimistic tone. WSJ
• South Korea is looking at creating an investment fund using excess tax revenue from its chip industry to finance long-term economic growth. BBG
• Chinese tech giants including Alibaba, ByteDance and Tencent have all announced plans to disable AI persona features as Beijing tightens its regulatory framework on the rapidly advancing AI industry. Nikkei
• The yen should be about 20% stronger at around 130 per dollar, former Japan currency chief Tatsuo Yamasaki said. BBG
• Large investors are committing billions of dollars to private credit funds as big institutions seek to profit from an exodus of smaller retail clients. North American direct lending funds that seek to attract institutional clients raised at least $16bn in the second quarter. FT
• Goldman Sachs sees USD/JPY at 165.00 in a year's time, raising its forecast from 155.00, citing Japan's interest rate differentials with the US

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks initially started the session with broad gains but reversed as the session continued, with a busy week ahead, which includes Samsung Electronics' Q2 earnings and SK Hynix's US listing. ASX 200 managed to limit its downside, and only posted modest losses, as upside in Energy and Health Care broadly offset the downside seen in Consumer Staples and Mining names. Further on the mining topic, Genesis Minerals made a AUD 5.6bln bid for Vault Minerals, hijacking a deal previously made with Regis Resources. Nikkei 225 was softer as it continued to pull back from its ATH of 72,832. Kioxia was one of the big underperformers, after the Co. began shipping sample next-gen semiconductor products. KOSPI was under significant pressure, despite initially printing gains of as much as 2.9%, with Samsung set to report Q2 figures on Tuesday; operating profit expected to print at KRW 86tln. However, a miss would be detrimental to tech valuations, since doubts have crept in over the scale and durability of AI demand and capex. Shanghai Comp. traded either side of the unchanged mark while the Hang Seng posted decent gains. Alibaba found some comfort after a US federal judge ordered the Pentagon to give the Co. a reprieve from a lobbying ban tied to the Pentagon's curbs on Chinese companies.

Top Asian News

• Apple (AAPL) supplier Luxshare (002475 CH) reportedly plans pricing its Hong Kong listing at the top end, Bloomberg reported.
• SK Hynix (000660 KS) is to raise KRW 43tln in ADR listing.
• Meituan's (3690 HK) LongCat-2.0 has been officially open-sourced, and domestic chip manufacturers are collectively adapting to it, Chinese press reported.
• Honda's (7267 JT) China unit reported June vehicles sales of 32.5k units, -44.5% Y/Y.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.2%) have traded on either side of the unchanged mark throughout the morning, with a lack of pertinent catalysts driving the action. European sectors are mixed but with a positive bias. Leading the table is Media, helped by ITV (+1%), Travel and Leisure is helped by easyJet (+10%), while European tech underperforms after modest losses in APAC (ASML -1.5%, STMicroelectronics -1.5%). For easyJet, the co. agreed in principle to Castlelake’s fifth takeover bid, at GBP 6.90/shr in cash. Stateside, futures play catch-up after US stocks were closed on Friday for US Independence Day. NQ +1% outperforms after broad tech gains on Friday, ES +0.4%, and RTY +0.2% also green.

Top European News

• UK Defence Minister Jarvis told POLITICO he wants Burnham’s administration to lay out the full pathway to spending 3.5% of GDP on defense at the next spending review, due spring 2027.
• France is said to have softened its stance of possible sale of SAMP/T air defence system (HO FP) to Turkey, according to sources.
• CVC's (CVC NA) sale of marina group D-Marin is said to be valued at EUR 1-1.5bln, FT reported, citing sources

FX

• Lack of macro catalysts with geopolitical news light as US-Iran negotiations pause for the former Supreme Leader’s funeral processions. The Buck today is seemingly attracting carry demand as we near summer trade, where ING notes G7 FX volatility is close to the lower end of long-term ranges. DXY currently trades near highs, within a 100.82 to 101.13 range.
• JPY is the clear underperformer, as it attempts to return to recent lows against most peers. Specifically, USD/JPY +0.5% on the day as the Buck outperforms against low yielders and after unconvincing potential intervention over the past week. USD/JPY sees its first resistance at 162.50 to the upside; thereafter, the next significant level is the 1st July high of 162.84.
• Antipodeans are mixed, Aussie outperforms as it attracts carry demand as mentioned above, while Kiwi is one of the G10 laggards as hawkish bets unwind ahead of the RBNZ policy announcement on Wednesday. Ahead of the meeting, the NZIER Shadow Board recommended that the RBNZ hold the OCR at 2.25%, against the market consensus of a 25bp hike to 2.50%. AUD/NZD +0.4% and approaches 1.2200.
• South Korean Finance Minister said the BoK is to closely monitor the impact and movements of KRW's 24-hour trade.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed benchmarks are mildly firmer this morning, taking leads from lower energy prices. Price action has been fairly lacklustre this morning, with the European session ultimately seeing sideways action.
• USTs (+4 ticks) are firmer this morning and hold within a 109-17 to 109-24 range; currently holding towards the upper end of the day’s range. US-specific newsflow has been lacking this morning, but will likely pick up in the form of US Final PMIs and then the more closely watched ISM Services thereafter. On that front, the headline is expected to pare to 54.0 (prev. 54.5), prices paid at 69.0 (prev. 71.3), and new orders at 57.0 (prev. 57.3).
• Bunds (+8 ticks) and Gilts (+5 ticks) both trade with mild gains, but with action ultimately non-committal. Both benchmarks are off their best levels and trading towards the mid-point of their respective 126.59-126.82 and 88.81-89.12 ranges.
• For Europe specifically, the EZ Sentix Investor Confidence topped expectations (-3.1 vs exp. -14.5), though not all too surprising given the recently signed US-Iran MoU. Sentix stated that “The slump in sentiment caused by the Iran conflict is slowly being overcome. The German government's latest reform efforts are having an impact”. On the data front, EZ PPI Y/Y printed a touch above the expected, as did Retail Sales – no move was seen on the data.
• BoJ announces its outright bond purchase operation in-line with its plan. Offers to buy JPY 100bln of <1yr JGBs. Offers to buy JPY 335bln of 5-10yr JGBs. Offers to buy JPY 100bln of 10-25yr JGBs

Commodities

• WTI Aug and Brent Sep futures are ultimately on a softer footing following choppy APAC and European morning trade. Macro catalysts remain quiet, further compounded by a temporary lull in geopolitical headlines, driving a steady unwinding of the war premium that supported prices throughout H1 2026. WTI resides towards the lower end of a USD 67.82-69.21/bbl range, while Brent sits at the bottom end of a USD 71.02-72.45/bbl parameter.
• Elsewhere, metals are mixed with precious metals softer after last week seeing its first weekly gain since May, supported by fading Fed rate hike expectations following the soft US jobs data, and lower energy prices. Meanwhile, overnight, it was reported that Hong Kong's pension fund will be able to invest in more gold ETFs as part of the government's push to make the city a gold trading hub, SCMP reports, citing sources. SCMP earlier reported that Hong Kong is to reportedly launch a gold clearing and settlement system.
• Price action this morning saw the yellow metal find resistance around the USD 4,200/oz mark, currently residing in a USD 4,144-4,202/oz range, with US traders set to return from their long weekend, and with ISM Services PMI ahead.
• In terms of base metals, copper futures are rising for a third consecutive session in a USD 13,361.53- 13,464.00/t range, whilst aluminium extends a rebound from a four-month low, supported by fading Fed rate hike bets after Fed Chair Warsh last week said price risks were easing.
• Goldman Sachs lowered its LME aluminium price forecast to USD 2,950/t for Q4 2026 and lowered its 2027 average forecast to USD 2,700/t. Goldman Sachs cuts its 2026 aluminium supply deficit forecast to 100k tonnes and raises its 2027 supply surplus forecast to about 1.5mln.
• Infrastructure has reportedly been damaged in the region of Russia's Ust-Luga and Vysotsk oil ports after a drone attack.
• UK ministers are reconsidering a ban on crop-based biofuels for aviation following a lobbying tour of the US Corn Belt by government officials, the FT reported.
• A power outage has been reported at Marathon Petroleum's (MPC) Detroit refinery, causing controlled gas burning, according to local media.
• Hong Kong's pension fund will be able to invest in more gold ETFs as part of the government's push to the city into a gold trading hub, SCMP reported citing sources.
• South Korean prosecutors say refiners colluded to hike prices despite ample oil reserves, Yonhap reported.
• A fleet of 10 Japan-related ships have reportedly left the Strait of Hormuz, shipping data shows.
• Israel's energy minister said Israel is launching a new competitive process to search for more natural gas in the country's economic waters.

Central Banks

• New Zealand NZIER Shadow Board recommends that the RBNZ holds the OCR at 2.25%.
• PBoC injected CNY 7bln via 7-day reverse repos with rate maintained at 1.40%.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8066 vs exp. 6.7850 (prev. 6.8047).
• Swiss Total Sight Deposits (w/e Jul 3) 479.2bln (prev. 474.4bln W/W), Domestic 440.9bln (prev. 440.6bln W/W).

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Ukraine's military said it has struck its oil refineries in Russia's Yaroslavl and Leningrad regions.
• EU's von der Leyen said EU is working to seal the 21st Russian sanctions package in the next days.
• Infrastructure has reportedly been damaged in the region of Russia's Ust-Luga and Vysotsk oil ports after a drone attack.
• Russian Defense Ministry said 519 Ukrainian drones were shot down over the regions overnight.
• A Ukrainian official said the death toll in Kyiv has risen to 9 after the recent Russian attacks.
• US President Trump is to meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky at the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey.
• Kyiv Mayor said the city is under a Russian missile attack with one residence badly damaged.
• A Russian official said the Ukrainian attack cuts the electricity to Sevastopol in Crimea, AFP reported.
• Several Russian ballistic missiles have struck Kyiv, with explosions being heard, according to an FT reporter.

Geopolitics: Iran

• Islamabad is the more likely option for the next round of US-Iran technical talks, with July 11th expected to be the date, sources tell Pakistani newspaper Dawn, according to Fox. Negotiations are expected to focus on Iran's nuclear programme, frozen Iranian assets, the Strait of Hormuz and the Lebanon ceasefire.
• Israeli Defence Minister Katz said any Iranian leader who tries again to promote plans to destroy Israel will be thwarted; Israel is prepared to defend itself again, with its own forces, at any time and against every threat.
• Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said a ceasefire in Gaza will be part of the second phase of the agreement with the US.
• Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf said the US memorandum is 'difficult but possible' to enforce, Al Jazeera reported.
• The Israeli occupation army carries out a bombing operation in the town of Houla in southern Lebanon.
• Israeli Army Chief of Staff Zamir said that the Israeli army will continue its operations to eliminate threats from Lebanese soil.
• Israeli airstrikes hit multiple towns in southern Lebanon.

US Event Calendar

• 9:45 am: United States Jun F S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 51.3, prior 51.3
• 9:45 am: United States Jun F S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 52.2, prior 52.2
• 10:00 am: United States Jun ISM Services Index, est. 54, prior 54.5
• 11:00 am: United States Fed’s Waller, ECB’s Schnabel, Wunsch, Riksbank’s Seim in Rome

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I hope your weekend was good. Mine was certainly a big WOW! 8.5 months after back fusion surgery I won both the scratch and handicap 2-day over 50s club championship. I shot 72 and 71 (one over gross). It took Tiger Woods two years after the same fusion surgery to win The Masters so I'm seeing this as a greater achievement. My twins were very impressed with the two huge cups I brought home and have earmarked winning the same event. They qualify in 2068! I wonder if England will have won the football World Cup again by then. I did get up to watch the second half which has just finished as I type this. A crazy win against Mexico. To all the readers in Norway, see you on Saturday!

Moving on, the week after payrolls is usually a quieter affair but there's plenty of global events even if the US calendar is light. In terms of the main highlights, given the current focus on monetary policy the FOMC minutes (Wednesday) and the ECB’s June meeting account (Thursday) will be carefully watched, especially the former given it was the first of the new Warsh regime. Speeches from Fed Governors Waller (Monday), Williams and Logan (Thursday) will provide a more "live" update to the committees' thinking. Elsewhere, China inflation data (Thursday) and a run of German activity indicators including factory orders (today), industrial production (tomorrow) and trade (Thursday) are worth tracking. German reforms in recent weeks have offered some renewed optimism that we will finally see the benefits of the huge fiscal spending and reform agenda after scepticism had been building. Geopolitically, the NATO summit (Tuesday–Wednesday) will also be in focus, with Mr Trump in attendance, and could generate plenty of headlines.

In terms of other data and events, today sees ISM services (Monday) which follows the recent weakness in manufacturing, where our economists expect a modest improvement. Most of the other data in the US is second tier but includes existing home sales on Thursday. Outside of the US, the BoE’s financial stability report (tomorrow) will be interesting, while inflation prints from Sweden (Wednesday) and Denmark and Norway (Friday) deserve a glance. In Japan, the data flow includes labour cash earnings and household spending (tomorrow), the Economy Watchers survey (Wednesday) and PPI (Friday). Elsewhere, we will see the RBNZ policy decision (Wednesday), where our economists expect a rate hike, and Canada’s labour market report (Friday).

In Asia, it's all eyes on the KOSPI at the moment after a pretty wild time of late. After being up 3% early in the session, it's now -1.86% as I type with the Nikkei -1.18% lower. The Shanghai Comp is -0.35% with the ASX -0.22%. However, the Hang Seng is +1.16%. S&P (+0.23%) and Nasdaq (+0.76%) futures are up but are roughly around Friday's levels when the US was on holiday.

Recapping last week now and markets saw a decent risk-on move, with the S&P 500 posting its best weekly performance since early May, with a +1.76% advance. That came amidst several dovish headlines, which meant investors priced out the chance of an imminent rate cut. For instance, Fed Chair Warsh said that inflation risks had come down at the Sintra Forum on Wednesday. And then on Thursday, the US jobs report showed payrolls up +57k, which was weaker than expected (even if unemployment was a tenth lower than expected). So collectively, that meant market pricing for a July hike fell from a 30% chance to 22% over the course of the week. And that dovish repricing was clear further out the curve, as the amount of hikes priced by the December meeting also came down slightly from 32bps to 30bps.   

Over in Europe there was a similar trend, with the STOXX 600 up +2.66% (+0.68% Friday) to a new record. That came as markets grew more doubtful about another ECB rate hike this year, with the latest flash CPI print also surprising on the downside. It showed headline inflation falling more than expected to +2.8% in June, and core CPI also falling to +2.4%. So markets also priced out the chance of another ECB rate hike by December, which fell from a 96% to an 83% chance over the week.  

But even though equities did quite well on the whole, there were still clear pockets of weakness, most notably in the chip sector. Indeed, the Philly semiconductor index fell -4.37%, losing ground for a second week running. Interestingly as well, the dovish repricing failed to prevent a move up in longer-dated yields, with the 10yr Treasury yield up +11.5bps last week to 4.48%, whilst the 10yr German yield rose +8.4bps to 2.93%.  

Finally, oil prices were comparatively steady last week, and Brent crude saw little movement with a +0.18% gain (+0.45% Friday), leaving it at $72.12/bbl. Otherwise, credit spreads tightened across the board, with US IG (-1bps) and HY (-15bps) spreads both coming down. It was a similar story in Europe too, where Euro IG (-1bps) and HY (-2bps) spreads also tightened.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/06/2026 - 08:28