Zero Rss

American Benevolence During World Cup Erases Anti-American Propaganda

Authored by Armando Simon via AmericanThinker.com,

The World Cup, as everyone knows by now, has been taking place across several cities in stadiums that have surprised foreign visitors by being gigantic and air-conditioned. As usual, fans have been having a lot of fun. Many of the visitors have come to the United States for the first time.

Social media has been filled with countless postings from visitors relating their experiences in this country.

Overwhelmingly, they are blown away by the abundance of food, both in restaurants and in grocery stores, not just in amount but in variety (e.g., the dozens and dozens of varieties of coffee, or cereal, or snacks).

They have been likewise overwhelmed by the size of everything, from onions to sandwiches to steaks to stores to cars.

They found refreshing the unashamed patriotism, evident by all the flags.

The availability of fireworks to be bought by anyone was surprising. As with the wide variety of food, wildlife, and cars/trucks, they are shocked at the variety of climate, whereas they come from areas that are uniform in climate. They keep repeating how well Americans have it here -- even the health-care system was praised.

Some sampled firing guns in gun ranges (but they should be careful in returning home; last year, someone who did so was arrested by the British Stasi). They openly stated that we have more freedom than they have in their country.

Visitors found that Americans welcomed them with open arms, sometimes even giving them free rides, drinks, or food.

The Scots, in particular, made such a splash in Boston that Scotland was threatened that we were going to keep them here; one woman responded that if we did, then we had to send over an equal number of Texas cowboys.

Significantly, the visitors have also revealed that the anti-American propaganda they’ve been subjected to for years has been lying to them. About the country. And about the people.

Sound familiar?

One month has washed away years of anti-American propaganda.

As for American liberals, with their hatred of the U.S.  and of its people, some appear to be having a nervous breakdown.

Some have even cried.

American woman had a full meltdown after a European turists to America started enthusiastically praising the greatness of the country. She visibly hated hearing it.

This is the direct fruit of decades of left-wing indoctrination that has conditioned many Americans to hate their… pic.twitter.com/x0Msc4szck

— I Meme Therefore I Am 🇺🇸 (@ImMeme0) June 15, 2026

It has been drilled into their heads that hating one’s country is the height of intellectual achievement.

This constant praise of America by non-Americans!

And by Europeans, whom they have always told are superior to Americans and whom we should all admire!

A few liberals have ineffectually tried to stem the tsunami of goodwill.

While feeling so intellectually superior for hating their country, they lack the intelligence and self-awareness to realize they have been brainwashed.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/26/2026 - 13:00

Polestar Barred From Selling Future EVs In US Under Connected-Vehicle Rule

The U.S. has become increasingly irrelevant to Polestar's growth story.

The Geely-backed EV maker said Thursday that it is "increasing its strategic focus on Europe," where much of its growth is now centered. The shift follows a decision by the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security not to authorize Polestar to sell future model-year vehicles in the U.S. under connected-vehicle rules aimed at limiting Chinese-linked technologies on American highways.

"This follows a decision from the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security to not grant Polestar an authorization under the current Connected Vehicle Rule to sell vehicles in the U.S. from model year 2027 onwards," Polestar wrote in a statement.

Polestar said that 94% of its retail sales volume in the first quarter of 2026 came from ex-US markets, and that, following the US Commerce Department's connected vehicle rule, it is now "increasing its strategic focus on Europe."

According to the Q1 retail sales data, which totaled 13,126 cars, the 94% figure means that the EV company sold only 788 vehicles in the US, or about 6%. This compares with the 117,300 EVs Tesla sold in the US market in the same quarter.

Michael Lohscheller, Polestar CEO, said: "The automotive industry is entering a new phase, based on regional dynamics. Our strategy reflects that, with Europe being our largest growth engine and our plan to manufacture Polestar 7 in Europe."

What Citi analyst Ross MacDonald says:

In May-26 Volvo Cars was granted specific authorizations for the continued import/sale of connected cars in the US (LINK), thus avoiding a costly US sales ban. Reuters is today reporting that Geely sub-brand Polestar has not received this favorable ruling, being denied authorization to sell vehicles model year 2027 cars in the US market. While this may at first be seen as an opportunity for Volvo Car to gain share in the premium US BEV segment, we actually see a small negative read-across to Volvo Car from this ruling. This reflects the fact – as shown below and discussed in our initiation (LINK, 25-June) – Volvo car actually share factory space with Polestar in several plants. The ruling could therefore drive some additional fixed cost absorption for Volvo Car across these plants if Polestar volumes decline rapidly and was likely not assumed in CMD targets, we would argue. Remains Sell.

What hat Bloomberg Intelligence Says...

"Polestar's inability to sell US model-year 2027 vehicles under the connected-vehicle rule may put about $250 million of 2027 revenue at risk. Yet that equates to only about 5% of group sales. A Europe focus also appears strategically sensible because Polestar could redirect South Korea-built Polestar 4 vehicles from the US to Europe, avoiding EU tariffs on China- made EVs."

Polestar American depositary receipts closed down 6% on Thursday following the news. Shares are down 11% on the year and have been locked in a vicious multi-year bear market:

Bloomberg noted, "Polestar 3s for the US market are assembled at Volvo's plant in Charleston, South Carolina. A Volvo spokesperson said it was too early to speculate on any impact, adding that previously announced investments at the Charleston plant remain unchanged."

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/26/2026 - 12:40

No Accountability

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

I honestly don’t know where Bitcoin is going from here.

It could be substantially higher a year from now. It could be substantially lower. It could spend the next five years frustrating both the bulls and the bears. I’ve learned over the years that making precise price predictions about speculative assets is a fool’s errand, and I’m not interested in pretending otherwise.

This article isn’t a referendum on Bitcoin, Ethereum, or digital assets generally. It’s also not an attempt to settle the endless debate between Michael Saylor and Peter Schiff. It’s about accountability, and whether financial media has any obligation to revisit the narratives it spends years enthusiastically promoting once those narratives begin to crack.

That question came to mind yesterday after Peter Schiff posted a tweet criticizing CNBC’s coverage of the recent collapse in Strategy-related securities and weakness in Bitcoin. Schiff wrote:

“Given how much airtime CNBC gave @Saylor to shill his MSTR house of cards, they are barely devoting any airtime to its current collapse…”

It’s one thing to never have Schiff on your network. That’s fine. But Schiff is right: this story is too big to not be covering. In the last 12 months, Strategy is down about -78%:. The scales are leaning slightly more towards “Schiff was right” than “Strategy is poised for a comeback” at this point, if you ask me.

I’m a realist, though, and I’m sure many people dismissed the Tweet yesterday because it came from Schiff. After all, he’s been one of Bitcoin’s most vocal critics for more than a decade. If you’ve followed financial markets for any length of time, you’ve heard someone say “Schiff has been calling for Bitcoin to collapse forever.” Fair enough. That’s true.

But it’s also worth remembering that Schiff was among those publicly questioning Alex Mashinsky and crypto firm Celsius before its collapse. Eight months before the firm blew up, on Kitco, Schiff criticized the platform’s unusually high yield promises, warning that such returns were often a red flag in the crypto industry and could signal underlying insolvency or mismanagement. He argued that Celsius was taking excessive risks with customer funds and questioned the transparency of its operations, suggesting that investors might not fully understand how their assets were being used.

And that’s why, in April, with Strategy’s STRC preferred product still trading at its $100 par price, I pointed out to my readers that it probably wasn’t a bad idea to listen to Schiff’s criticism of the product and take its 11.5% yield with a grain of salt.

“When you’re telling people to put their savings into this for income, that’s a huge red flag,” Schiff argued earlier this year. Now, STRC is trading at a $73 handle, representing a more than 20% loss of principle for people who bought then — a hole that would take years of collecting dividends to make up for. Some crypto commentators believe that STRC will never trade at par again and that “the damage has been done”.

And so you don’t have to agree with Schiff’s long-term conclusions on Bitcoin to acknowledge that he has occasionally identified serious problems before the broader market was willing to confront them. More importantly, history is full of people who sounded repetitive until they were suddenly proven right about something else entirely.

Madoff’s whistleblowers were ignored. The skeptics of Enron weren’t exactly invited onto television every week while the stock was climbing. Analysts warning about subprime mortgages in 2006 and early 2007 were mocked for “missing the new paradigm.” Critics of the SPAC boom were dismissed as people who simply didn’t understand innovation. Looking back, their warnings seem prescient. Living through them, however, they simply sounded like broken records.

That’s why I don’t think Schiff himself is the story here. His tweet merely raises a question that deserves a much broader discussion: what responsibility does financial television have after it spends years giving a platform to the same handful of market evangelists and those guests are imploding and taking viewer and investor capital with them?

Think about the amount of airtime Michael Saylor has received over the past several years. It seemed like every new Bitcoin purchase became an interview. Every convertible debt offering became another segment. Every financing announcement was treated as an opportunity to explain why borrowing billions of dollars to buy more Bitcoin was a revolutionary corporate strategy.

Likewise, Tom Lee has become one of CNBC’s most frequent market commentators, not only discussing equities but increasingly making the case for Ethereum and digital assets. Whether you agree with either man is beside the point. The point is that viewers have been exposed to these bullish narratives constantly.

And there’s nothing inherently wrong with that. Bullish guests deserve airtime. Bears deserve airtime too. Markets function because different people have different opinions. But journalism doesn’t end once the interview is over. If a network is willing to devote hundreds of hours to amplifying a thesis during the ascent, shouldn’t it devote at least some meaningful coverage to evaluating that thesis when things begin going the other direction?

Like, for example, how some sources estimate that between Saylor and Lee, they have over $20 billion in losses on their respective crypto investments. And how Lee’s BMNR is down about 58% year to date.

The media imbalance becomes even more glaring when you look at products like Strategy’s STRC preferred shares. When the offering was launched, the messaging wasn’t that this was some wildly speculative instrument appropriate only for aggressive traders. Quite the opposite. It was discussed as a safe yield-oriented security designed to broaden Strategy’s investor base and appeal to investors looking for income.

One video from Michael Saylor’s Twitter account shows a woman, retired on what appears to be a tropical island. Someone asks her if she’s on vacation while serving her a cocktail. She responds: “I’m retired. I just don’t think I was meant to live an uncomfortable life. I worked hard as an engineer to save money, then I put my savings into STRC…”

Saylor’s text above the video says “You weren’t meant to live an uncomfortable life.” Below the video, Schiff had Tweeted in response:

I think this ad is deceptive and leaves Strategy open to lawsuits from investors who lose money. I don’t think the small print at the end will offset the deliberate intent of the ad that preceded it.

CNBC covered the launch of STRC and gave Saylor TV time to make his case for it, as did virtually every major financial publication.

“If Bitcoin’s up 2% a year, we can pay those dividends forever,” Saylor said a couple months ago on CNBC. He wasn’t asked directly what would happen in bitcoin went down for a prolonged period of time.

And today on STRC, shares trade dramatically below their $100 par value, falling to about $73 this morning in the pre-market session. Investors who bought near issuance are down more than 20% on principal alone, meaning it could take roughly two years of those attractive dividend payments just to recover the capital loss, assuming nothing else changes.

Which makes me ask: how is that also not a major financial news story?

Imagine if a preferred security issued by a regional bank had been aggressively marketed, only to lose more than one-fifth of its value within months. Imagine if a dividend-focused REIT had produced that outcome shortly after management completed a nationwide media tour. Financial TV would almost certainly have panels discussing what went wrong, analysts debating whether investors had underestimated the risks, and anchors asking executives difficult follow-up questions. Yet when the same thing happens in the crypto ecosystem, the conversation seems subdued compared to the enthusiasm that surrounded the launch.

Nor is this phenomenon unique to crypto.

Take Cathie Wood, for example, who I have written about extensively. She gets tons of CNBC time since getting her Tesla investment “right” around 2020. By 2024, Morningstar estimated that ARK had destroyed approximately $14 billion in investor capital. They listed her as one of the top 15 funds that have destroyed the most wealth over the past decade. The CNBC appearances, however, have not stopped.

$14 billion is the kind of number that should invite some uncomfortable questions. Instead, the broader narrative around Wood has remained oddly charitable, as though the earlier success still carries more weight than the subsequent reality. Here she is getting 10 minutes on CNBC a couple months ago. A month before that, in March, she got another 10 minutes with Tom Lee. To start the year she was asked about her predictions for 2026 in another 6 minute look interview.

Wood is currently clinging to a 2024 analysis of Tesla that predicts shares could go to $2,600 by 2029. They are currently at about $350, down from recent highs over $400. She has missed a ton of operational targets and price targets on the name since her 2020 jump to fame. Since January 1, 2019, her flagship fund has underperformed the NASDAQ by about -259%. And this includes her Tesla run up where she was thrashing her benchmark by more than 100% at one point! 

Since January 1, 2021, ARKK is down -38% while the NASDAQ is up 128%.

I discussed more about Wood during my recent interview with Adam Taggart here.

Despite all of this, Wood remains one of television’s favorite guests, regularly invited back to explain why the next disruptive innovation is just around the corner. Again, she has every right to make her case. My question is why the media rarely spends equal time examining the cost to the investors who followed it.

I estimate that between Michael Saylor, Tom Lee and Cathie Wood, there has been over 100 total appearances on CNBC over the last two years.

Now we’re watching what feels like the next chapter with the relentless promotion of SpaceX’s valuation. Cathie Wood is buying it, of course. And hey, maybe SpaceX ultimately becomes one of the greatest investments of this generation. It’s certainly one of the world’s most impressive companies. But I’d love to know how many people appearing on financial television to tout the opportunity already own shares, work for firms with exposure, or otherwise stand to benefit from continued enthusiasm.

Conversely, how many guests are invited simply to explain why investors should be cautious? How many independent skeptics are asked whether today’s private-market valuations make sense? Those voices seem remarkably difficult to find.

This is where the issue shifts from just Bitcoin to financial journalism.

Financial television does not have to predict market tops. Nobody can do that consistently. It doesn’t need to become bearish every time prices fall, nor should it refuse to interview people with optimistic outlooks. But it should have an obligation to revisit those optimistic narratives with some gusto after investors have experienced meaningful losses. If an executive spends months explaining why a strategy is revolutionary, that executive should also be invited back to explain why shareholders are down billions of dollars when circumstances change. If serious allegations of wrongdoing are leveled at a multi-billion dollar company and CNBC gets a chance to interview the CEO on live television, why not ask some pointed questions more than once?

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Otherwise, what exactly is financial journalism accomplishing?

Too often it begins to resemble marketing. Bull markets create charismatic personalities. Those personalities attract viewers. Viewers generate ratings. Ratings sell advertising. Everyone benefits while prices are climbing. When prices reverse, however, the cameras simply move to the next exciting story. There is very little institutional memory. Few difficult follow-up interviews. Almost no serious discussion of whether the original thesis was incomplete, overly optimistic, or simply wrong.

That’s particularly unfortunate because ordinary investors absolutely notice this pattern. They notice which guests appear repeatedly during speculative booms. They notice that the skeptical voices often receive a fraction of the exposure. And they certainly notice when the enthusiasm disappears much faster than the accountability once prices begin falling.

Ironically, I don’t lose much sleep over it. If anything, it probably helps independent writers like me. Every time financial television fails to ask the questions viewers are asking themselves, more people begin searching for alternative sources of analysis. That’s probably good for my subscriber count. It’s why I started a podcast and a blog to begin with.

But let’s not pretend investors don’t see what’s happening. They’re smarter than the industry often gives them credit for. They understand that nobody can predict markets perfectly. They’re perfectly willing to forgive a bad call. What they’re less willing to forgive is the appearance that financial media is eager to amplify bullish narratives during the boom but reluctant to scrutinize those same narratives after billions of dollars have evaporated.

That’s ultimately why Schiff’s tweet resonated with me yesterday. Not because I suddenly agree with his outlook on Bitcoin. Not because I think Michael Saylor or Tom Lee shouldn’t be interviewed. And certainly not because I think CNBC should root against innovation or speculative assets all the time. It resonated because it asked a question that applies far beyond crypto: if financial television is going to enthusiastically hand out microphones on the way up, shouldn’t it be equally eager to ask hard questions on the way down?

That isn’t being bearish, it’s just journalism.

--

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions.

As of May 20, 2026 I personally no longer actively trade (read my story here). My investing/saving is done by recurring contributions mostly to sector ETFs and a few select equities, trusted third parties who oversee my accounts, and advisors. Such advisors or funds, through individual equities, options, index funds, mutual funds, ETFs, or other securities, may have positions in, exposure to, or holdings of names mentioned herein that I know nothing about. Basically, via index funds, ETFs and individual equities it is possible I could own, have exposure to, or not own anything at any point. As of the same date, May 20, 2026, in an attempt to lead a healthier lifestyle, I’ve also excluded myself from fantasy sports, sports betting, online and in-person casinos and prediction markets.

And all positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/26/2026 - 12:20

Volkswagen CEO Plans 100,000 Job Cuts In Generational Overhaul

German business news outlet Manager Magazin reports that Volkswagen CEO Oliver Blume is eyeing a major restructuring that could eliminate as many as 100,000 jobs. The latest VW earnings show just why: Europe's largest automaker remains bloated in a world of weak demand, a softening Chinese market, rising Chinese competition in Europe, and low margins.

"Volkswagen CEO Oliver Blume is getting serious. He plans to drastically intensify job cuts, actually phase out production at four German plants, and spin off the VW brand into a new company. Volkswagen is to become a new company," Manager Magazin wrote in the report.

If fully implemented, the 100,000-job reduction would eliminate about 15% of Volkswagen's current global workforce of 650,000. Bloomberg data shows VW went on a hiring spree between 2008 and 2020.

Now, it appears a generational high has been reached in VW's workforce, as a shift toward efficiency, automation, and AI could soon result in massive job losses. We're sure lefty unions will be furious.

Manager Magazin also noted that Blume plans 11 billion euros in cost cuts by 2030, which could include spinning off component operations and the core VW brand.

The restructuring plan will be presented to the supervisory board next month and is expected to face intense resistance from labor unions and Lower Saxony lawmakers, who hold significant influence over the company's governance.

The urgency behind a restructuring stems from deteriorating earnings: its first-quarter revenue fell 2.5% to 75.7 billion euros, while operating profit dropped 14.3% to 2.46 billion euros, and the operating margin slipped to 3.3% from 3.7%. Earnings after tax fell 28.4% to 1.56 billion euros, while vehicle sales fell 6.9%, and deliveries were down 4%.

A Volkswagen spokesperson told the Hamburg-based outlet that the struggling car company "must undergo profound change." The executive board "has been working intensively over the past few months on a future-oriented plan to realign the company."

Shares in Germany slipped 34 basis points following the report and remain down 25% on the year. The stock is trading at 2010 levels...

The implosion of VW tells you all you need to know about Europe's crumbling industrial base at a time when war is still raging, and in fact accelerating, in Ukraine. Time to convert unused civilian vehicle production lines into interceptor missile production.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/26/2026 - 12:00

Amazon Prime Day Household Spending Underwhelms, Survey Finds

The massive four-day shopping event for Amazon Prime members kicked off Tuesday and runs through the end of the week, but early survey data suggest the sales event is off to a sluggish start, with average household spending on day one tracking below last year's pace.

Bloomberg cited high-frequency data from market research firm Numerator, which surveyed thousands of Prime members and found that the average household had spent about $89 as of 4 p.m. Tuesday, the first day of Prime Day.

That average total sales ticket was down about 16% from the same point during last year's event, suggesting Amazon's Prime Day is off to a softer start as cash-strapped consumers are still reeling from months of soaring gasoline and diesel prices, despite the latest pullback in pump prices following an interim US-Iran peace deal.

Another reason for the softer activity on day one of Prime Day could be that cash-strapped consumers are simply not seeing the deals they expected. That was echoed by marketing firm PMG, which said Prime Day discounts would be lighter this year. Some of that is because merchants face higher costs and tariff uncertainty, both of which are pressuring margins.

According to Numerator, about half of shoppers said inflation and higher living costs have driven them to Prime Day. Throughout the four-day shopping period, the survey found that households plan to spend about $187.

Ohio retiree Patrice Kihlken told Bloomberg that discounts on summer dresses and jewelry-making supplies were rather disappointing.

"It's just underwhelming to me," said Kihlken, 65. "Most of the things that I looked at, they're 5%, 10%, maybe 15% off. Anything that's really nice is not on sale."

Prime Day's slow start should be seen as a proxy for consumer sentiment, as it shows household willingness to spend outside normal weekly purchases, as well as tests discount elasticity, or the willingness of households to respond to deals.

The takeaway so far is that the soft start is an ominous sign, but there are several days left in the big sale.

Analysts from UBS to Piper Sandler have pointed out incoming tailwinds for consumers with plunging fuel prices:

• "Early Signs Of A Turn In US Consumer Discretionary," UBS Says
• Piper Sandler's Top Economist Sees "Big Bounce" In Consumer Sentiment As Gas Prices Tumble
• "Optimism Has Picked Up": Retail Operators See Consumer Relief After Gas Prices Tumble

Yet there might be a lag period before consumer sentiment finally shifts higher and translates into higher spending.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/26/2026 - 11:20

How Resilient?

By Bas van Geffen, senior macro strategist at Rabobank

A cargo ship was hit by an unknown object near the coast of Oman yesterday. The vessel took some damage, but the company reported that “crew, vessel, and cargo are all safe.”

The ship has since left the strait, and tankers continue to transit. Still, these attacks force a rethink about the safety of the Strait of Hormuz, just as shipping from the Gulf region was starting to pick up again. The International Maritime Organization temporarily halted its evacuation plan for ships leaving the Gulf, and several tankers changed course – possibly after instructions from Iran.

US officials stated the ship had been struck by an Iranian drone. And one of these officials said the hit was likely deliberate: the drone had manoeuvred to the side of the ship before it attacked. Plus, the incident happened just hours after the IRGC had warned ships to only use the routes that Iran had approved. Vessels that do not are “not covered by the safe passage guarantee.”

That could of course be coincidence. However, if Iran was indeed behind the attack, the IRGC warning was perhaps not out of concerns that there might still be mines in those shipping lanes, but because there aren’t. That is, perhaps, ships were exiting at a faster rate than Iran had foreseen, as it tries to retain as much leverage as possible during the talks with the US. Or maybe Iran was unhappy that Oman cooperated with the US and the UN, by allowing vessels to transit through its side of the strait.

The attacks are the latest in a series of tests whether the memorandum of understanding will be upheld by both sides. The Israeli incursion into Lebanon is another. Iran has said that Israel must leave Lebanon today, but Prime Minister Netanyahu has no intention to withdraw.

However, energy markets seem to believe the deal will hold. At $73.8 for a barrel of Brent, crude prices are still towards the lower end of this week’s trading range, despite the latest incident in Hormuz.

Indeed, as fragile as the deal may be, both Iran and the US have a motive to stick to it – even though US officials blamed Iran for the incident, they also immediately downplayed the incident. The MOU allows Iran to sell oil and Iran may be able to get some resources back into the hurting economy. Meanwhile, President Trump admitted that US “economic catastrophe” loomed within four to six weeks, if the MOU had not been signed and the stalemate had continued.

So, earlier this week, we updated our scenarios. We now expect talks to continue – possibly for longer than the 60 days that were originally agreed to in the MOU. However, ultimately the set of outcomes is limited to Iran or the US getting the better deal, or new tensions if neither side is willing to accept defeat. We assume the latter outcome as our base case failing a shift in Iranian deliverables on tolls, uranium, and Hezbollah. However, it is a close call and the timing is near-impossible to predict.

Whilst not of “catastrophic” proportions yet, the Iran war is clearly starting to show in US economic data. US PCE inflation rose to 4.1% in May, in line with expectations. Underlying inflation has been accelerating since late last year, and that trend was kept intact.

Core inflation came in at 3.4%, which is the fastest pace in 2.5 years’ time. In the Powell-era, this used to be the Fed’s favourite inflation indicator. Warsh’s favourite metric gives the Fed a little more respite, perhaps. The trimmed-mean PCE inflation rate, ticked up to 2.4%, a level it has been hovering around since the turn of the year. But the key driver behind accelerating core inflation were services prices, notably in financial services, insurance, and transportation services. Pressure from tariff hikes has continued to build gradually as well. So, overall, stickiness seems to have broadened somewhat.

Despite these higher prices, US consumers continue to spend. Real personal spending increased by 0.3% m/m, which was a little better than expected – however that does come on the back of a slight downward revision of the April data.

Another potential risk to consumer spending is the shifting sentiment about AI and tech stocks. Fresh doubts about the AI rally left the Kospi index 7% lower on the week, after a rollercoaster ride that triggered circuit breakers on the way down. The mood soured on Tuesday and Wednesday. Then, Micron’s bumper earnings report reassured investors somewhat. But tech stocks are leading the decline again today.

The Korean index indicates growing caution about AI and tech. That is not limited to the Korean index, but global markets are still more composed. European equities are broadly opening in the red – albeit much less dramatically than the Kospi’s 5.8% loss on the day, or the 4.2% decline in the Japanese Nikkei.

These doubts about the sector are despite -or because of?- European plans to become digitally sovereign. Earlier this month, the European Commission adopted a “tech sovereignty package.” And the EU joined the US’ Pax Silica this week, which excludes China from supply chains for AI-capable semiconductors.

The agreement is a non-binding declaration of intent. Nonetheless, it will certainly anger China. The declaration follows on earlier discussions on trade imbalances, which the EU now sees as a more urgent problem. The Commission is looking to implement a law that requires EU companies to diversify their supply chains, which is mainly aimed at de-risking from China – even though Brussels did not name the country specifically. Beijing has already said it would retaliate.

And blocking China from AI supply chains is insufficient. If the European Commission is serious about tech sovereignty, then it must also be prepared to pick a fight with the US over its role in European technology – or at least accept that subsequent steps towards autonomy could lead to retaliatory measures from Washington.

More pressing, perhaps, are the trade tensions surrounding the renewal of the USMCA, the free-trade agreement between the US, Mexico and Canada. Although the agreement does not expire on 1 July, it does face its first mandatory six-year joint review. The FT reports that the car industry could derail the agreement – or may at least put a strain on negotiations.

The US has effectively banned Chinese cars, and the US automobile industry will pressure President Trump to uphold that ban. However, Canada and particularly Mexico have embraced Chinese cars. The Canadian minister of Industry has recently met with Chinese carmakers to explore investments in Canadian production capacity. That may be incompatible with US policy, and review of the USMCA. At the same time, any new trade deal may become a bit less attractive to Canada if Chinese investments make the Canadian auto industry less dependent on the traditional North American supply chain.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/26/2026 - 11:00

John Bolton Pleads Guilty To Retaining National Security Information

John Bolton, former national security adviser to President Donald Trump, pleaded guilty on Friday to one count of retaining national security information related to his work during the first Trump administration. 

Bolton appeared Friday morning for a re-arraignment in Greenbelt, Maryland before Obama-appointed judge Theodore D. Chuang. He faces a prison sentence of up to 60 months and has agreed to pay $2.25 million, according to prosecutors. Sentencing is scheduled for Oct. 28. 

Bolton was originally charged in October of 2025 with eight counts of transmission of national defense information and ten counts of retention of national defense information. The charges centered on diary-like entries from his time in the Trump White House that were allegedly kept at his residence.

Prosecutors accused him of sharing more than 1,000 pages of information through his personal email with two unauthorized individuals - reportedly his wife and daughter - though these transmission allegations are not part of the plea deal.

Related: Eyebrow-Raising Details Emerge From FBI Raid On John Bolton's Home

According to the indictment, Bolton used personal email and messaging accounts to transmit Top Secret intelligence about foreign adversaries, future attacks, and U.S. foreign-policy relations. He also kept classified files at his home, including sensitive intelligence about foreign leaders and U.S. intelligence sources.

Bolton described the national security information as an 'electronic diary' that he shared with two members of his family. 

His lawyer, Abbe Lowell, said last year that Bolton was innocent. 

"The underlying facts in this case were investigated and resolved years ago," he said. "These charges stem from portions of Amb. Bolton’s personal diaries over his 45-year career - records that are unclassified, shared only with his immediate family, and known to the FBI as far back as 2021."

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/26/2026 - 10:45

Did Trump Make the Right Deal With Iran? Curt Mills vs. Will Chamberlain Debate Tonight

LIVE NOW:

https://t.co/PgdhEZ2LUX

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 26, 2026

****************************

President Trump's agreement or MOU with Iran has infuriated the likes of Mark Levin, Ben Shapiro, and Randy Fine while earning praise from the America First camp: Joe Kent, Steve Bannon, Jack Posobiec, etc.

Voters (both republican and democrat) seems content with the deal and the hope it may usher in a “return to normal”. as admin officials share positive polling towards Trump’s MOU. Here’s deputy assistant to the President Pat Adams:

Poll reveals President Trump’s approval rating has surged as voters deliver verdict on Iran and the economy

"Donald Trump's approval rating is the second-best of 2026, according to the latest Daily Mail/JL Partners survey taken from June 19 to June 21."https://t.co/ckDeYgDeNl

— Pat Adams (@PatAdams96) June 23, 2026

In light of the deal, and the MAGA shakeup its caused, tonight, Curt Mills, Executive Director of the American Conservative, and Will Chamberlain, Senior Counsel at the Article III Project, square off on whether Trump's Iran deal advances American interests, and whether Israel's current approach to the conflict is helping or hurting the United States.

Chamberlain has sharply criticized the agreement, arguing that "the deal is absolutely terrible," saying it provides Iran with "huge, immediate financial benefits and protection for Hezbollah in exchange for opening the Strait, and nothing else."

We have the text, the deal is absolutely terrible, there's no getting around it. The text gives Iranians huge, immediate financial benefits and protection for Hezbollah in exchange for opening the Strait - and nothing else.

President Trump should renege.

— Will Chamberlain (@willchamberlain) June 17, 2026

Mills, a staunch critique since the launch of the war, takes the opposite view: Get out now, cut the losses, and move forward with a more restrained foreign policy that prioritizes avoiding deeper American involvement in the Middle East.

Mills has likewise been the target of perhaps the most apoplectic opposer to a peace deal, Mark Levin, who branded him “Iranian-Regime First Curt Mills”.

Sounds good 👍🏻. The Islamic Republic of Iran is the Iranian people’s business. The United States has countless other problems https://t.co/WzQmkKkINj

— Curt Mills (@CurtMills) June 17, 2026

Hosted by author Michael Malice, the debate will examine whether the agreement represents prudent statecraft or a dangerous concession, whether Washington should continue closely aligning its Middle East policy with Israel's objectives, and what an America First foreign policy should look like.

Banger. Rolls off the tongue https://t.co/0kMoBquFhu

— Curt Mills (@CurtMills) June 23, 2026

The discussion begins tonight on ZeroHedge at 7pm ET. Tune in on the ZH homepage, X feed, or YouTube channel.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/26/2026 - 10:30

World Cup Pundit Branded Racist For Calling African Team's Performance "Wild"

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

Bastian Schweinsteiger, the former Bayern Munich, Manchester United and Germany midfielder, has been accused of racism by Ivory Coast manager Emerse Fae for comments he made as a pundit ahead of one of the team's 2026 World Cup matches.

While previewing Germany's group-stage match against Ivory Coast, Schweinsteiger described the opponents' style as "a bit African football, a bit unorthodox, a bit wild, a bit perhaps also not so conditioned by tactics" and warned that Germany "must be prepared for it to be unpredictable."

The accusation has ignited debate over whether pundits can still describe regional playing styles without facing bigotry charges. Schweinsteiger was performing the basic job of a television analyst: giving viewers a clear picture of what to expect from an opponent known for athleticism and direct play. Instead of focusing solely on Ivory Coast's on-pitch results, the story quickly shifted to policing his choice of words.

German football legend Bastian Schweinsteiger sparked controversy after Germany's match against Ivory Coast, describing the Ivorian team's style as "a bit of wild African football," drawing widespread criticism and accusations of racism. pic.twitter.com/rEaj619hLQ

— African News feed. (@africansinnews) June 24, 2026

After the Germany match, Fae was asked about Schweinsteiger's preview and responded "I think it's sad. Schweinsteiger was a very good player. I have always loved him as a midfielder and the way he understood football. When I heard his comments, I was disappointed in the man. It is odd he would speak that way. We could call it racist, if we were calling a spade a spade."

Ivory Coast head coach Emerse Fae has strongly criticised former Bayern Munich and Germany star Bastian Schweinsteiger for comments the 2014 World Cup-winner made last weekend, describing them as "racist".

More from @mjshrimper ??

Free to read: https://t.co/tXvjxM1n7x pic.twitter.com/TRFwbkJlpq

— The Athletic | Football (@TheAthleticFC) June 26, 2026

Fae added: "I don't agree with him, but I have no other solution other than to work with things as they are. All I can show is that on the pitch African teams are not just physical, we are technical and tactical. I can only hope it is a clumsy statement, rather than something going on in his mind. If that's what he thinks, he is free to do so."

The attempt to frame routine style analysis as racism has met strong resistance from fans who see a clear double standard. Commentators have long discussed Brazilian flair, Italian pragmatism or German structure without controversy. Applying similar shorthand to an African side now triggers accusations that many view as overreach.

This isn't racist at all. Everyone says that about every single good African nation. Theres a European style of football, there's a Latin American style of football, an Asian style of football and of course there's an African style of football. It isn't racist

— Bavarian Tapatio (@Bavariantapatio) June 26, 2026

Which part of Basti's statement was incorrect

— filipmeister ?? (@F1peFCB) June 26, 2026

Isnt this basically the same shit we say about italy for years?

Where exactly is the racist part in his sentence?

— mike (@michixixix) June 26, 2026

Many replies argue that describing distinct continental or national styles is normal football talk, not prejudice, and that elevating every stylistic observation to a racism debate stifles honest commentary.

There is a lot of 'lost in translation' in this story. 'Unorthodox, wild, not conditioned by tactics' are normal phrases in German football. They are used to described teams like Augsburg, Union or St. Pauli for decades.

— John Kommentaro (@JohnKommentaro) June 26, 2026

Too much victim mentality within africans, always claiming oppression. African football is objectively wild its just reality, not racism

— Mandzukic (@mandzukicheader) June 26, 2026

Football's played a bit differently in every corner of the world. Every style's got its pros and cons. African teams tend to break free from tactical constraints more often than, say, Germany. That unpredictability is exactly what gives teams like that trouble. it's awesome.

— Mister Moe (@MisterMoeX) June 26, 2026

Inventing racism where there is none makes the whole issue look like a joke. It's ridiculous and actively harms the fight against actual, real-world racism.

— Lego Zidane (@legozidane) June 26, 2026

Schweinsteiger did not invent the idea of regional football identities. Analysts have used terms like "African football" for years to capture characteristics such as athleticism, directness and unpredictability that can disrupt more rigid systems.

The same principle applies to every other part of the world game. Treating one continent's style as uniquely off-limits for description creates an uneven standard.

The broader problem is the expanding reach of identity politics into sports media. Pundits are expected to deliver clear, unvarnished takes on tactics, strengths and weaknesses. When a single descriptive phrase triggers accusations of racism, the space for straightforward analysis shrinks. Viewers lose out on informed discussion, and commentators face pressure to self-censor.

Sports broadcasting should not require analysts to filter every observation through a political lens. Schweinsteiger gave a concise preview of an opponent. That is exactly what the role demands. Branding such comments racist because they reference "African" traits turns normal football talk into a minefield.

The alternative is sanitized coverage where analysts tiptoe around obvious realities for fear of manufactured outrage. That serves no one - not the players, not the viewers, and not the game itself.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/26/2026 - 10:15

UMich Sentiment Rebounds From 46-Year Record Low In June, Inflation Fears Fade Further

Having rebounded from record (46 year) lows in preliminary June data, University of Michigan's final June Sentiment survey was expected to show further improvement as gas prices have fallen since the US-Iran 'peace' MoU signing.

And it did with the headline index rising from 48.9 flash and 44.8 prior to 49.5 (but that was below the 50.0 expectation)...

Both Current Conditions and the Expectations Index also rebounded with the former outperforming...

Consumer sentiment confirmed its early-month reading, rising about 10% above May as gas prices moderated.

"Increases were seen across income, wealth, and political affiliation," Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement.

Expected business conditions over the next five years surged 16% as consumers’ worries over long-term consequences of the Iran conflict appear to be easing.

"Still, sentiment remains in unfavorable territory at 13% below the February 2026 reading prior to the start of the Iran conflict, and nearly 20% less than a year ago."

Year-ahead inflation expectations inched down from 4.8% in May to a still-elevated 4.6% this month.

The current reading substantially exceeds the 3.4% reading seen in February before the Iran conflict began, along with all 2024 readings.

Long-run inflation expectations fell back from 3.9% last month to 3.3% in June, remaining a bit higher than the 2.8% to 3.2% range seen in 2024.

A gauge of consumers’ perceptions of their personal finances also improved from May, though remained close to the lowest since 2009.

Even so, US household demand has proved resilient. 

However, “the cost of living remains at the forefront of consumers’ minds,” Hsu concludes.

“Over half of consumers spontaneously mentioned that high prices are weighing down their personal finances.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/26/2026 - 10:08

Musk's Starlink Plots To Become A Mobile Carrier; TD Cowen Sees Possible T-Mobile Buyout

The signs were already in plain sight that Elon Musk’s Starlink was positioning itself to challenge the big three U.S. wireless operators: Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile.

One of the clearest signals was SpaceX's $17 billion deal for EchoStar wireless spectrum last year, followed by a recent trademark filing for "Starlink Mobile."

We noted in December:

• SpaceX Trademark Filing Signals "Starlink Mobile" May Soon Take Aim At AT&T, Verizon

Now, the Financial Times reports that SpaceX Chief Operating Officer Gwynne Shotwell told institutional investors during the IPO roadshow that the company is considering selling mobile contracts directly to consumers and may eventually build its own terrestrial U.S. mobile network.

"The move would require Starlink to build a new retail offering by selling mobile contracts to individual customers, competing directly with the three big US network operators Verizon Wireless, AT&T and T-Mobile," FT wrote in a note.

Elon going for the phone after all

SpaceX Plans New Starlink Mobile Service for US Consumers: FT

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 26, 2026

The plan follows SpaceX's $17 billion purchase of EchoStar spectrum licenses last fall, a deal that could be viewed as the foundation for a terrestrial mobile network.

"A direct-to-consumer mobile offering would give SpaceX access to a far larger market than satellite broadband alone, potentially reducing its reliance on telecoms partners that currently act as intermediaries between Starlink’s satellites and end users," FT wrote in the report.

Starlink has already signed a number of deals with carriers, notably with T-Mobile:

Pathways for Starlink:

TD Cowen analyst Gregory Williams told clients that if SpaceX/Starlink fail to secure an MVNO/retail mobile deal, then the next logical move would be to acquire T-Mobile.

Williams explained why:

Acquire a U.S. Wireless Carrier. Should SpaceX fail to reach an MVNO deal, or simply desires owners' economics and quickly, T-Mobile seems to us the clear choice given their momentum (HSD % growth), maverick culture, pure-play wireless provider, and existing Starlink partnership. Another thought would be to acquire AT&T. SpaceX could sell AT&T's fiber homes (LEO solutions will likely have a very difficult time succeeding in a Cable/Fiber overlapped footprint) at ~$2,500/home essentially paying for AT&T's wireless network at a far less expensive price compared to T-Mobile. As for financing, SpaceX could theoretically execute a secondary offering for only modest dilution to its current substantial market cap.

Williams noted that any Starlink entry into the wireless industry is bearish for legacy operators.

He continued:

Any entry of SpaceX could be highly bearish for the wireless industry. As such, we are hopeful but not convinced that no carrier will budge and cave on an MVNO agreement. As for M&A, SpaceX would need a willing seller. With T-Mobile the best fit, this SpaceX dynamic could be what motivated T-Mobile owner Deutsche Telekom to seek total ownership and control of its US cash cow subsidiary as reported in April (LINK). In a defensive move, T-Mobile could acquire a cable company. While investors could roll their eyes on purchasing "yesterday's technology", and it would be an overt contradiction to T-Mobile management's messaging, a cable acquisition could serve two purposes.

Related:

• SpaceX Builds A Regulatory Moat Around Its Starlink Empire

Starlink's true intention was revealed by Musk last fall: 

2/ $ASTS: Key excerpts from the interview Starlink's true intention of competing against MNOs comes out:

Chamath: "Elon is your vision for this that instead of you know having an AT&T account and then roaming when you're in the UK or in India, we could have one direct deal with… pic.twitter.com/fkGuXHd3iF

— Anp🅰️nman (@spacanpanman) September 10, 2025

Speculation mounts...

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/26/2026 - 09:50

UAE Retracts Warning About "Potential Missile Threat"

Update: it appears the earlier warning by the UAE was a false alarm:

• UAE SENDS ALERT SAYING 'PLEASE DISREGARD THE PREVIOUS WARNING'
• UAE ASKS PEOPLE TO IGNORE PREVIOUS WARNING

* * * 

Earlier

Is the ceasefire over (again)?

Moments ago stocks hit session lows and oil jumped from post-war lows after the UAE issued a phone alert warning of potential missile strikes.

Iran's Tasnim promptly followed up, saying that according to news sources, there were explosions heard in Dubai.

And while the initial report sent futures to session lows...

... , and oil bounced...

... a subsequent report from UAE indicated that the situation is "currently safe" after a potential threat alert.

• *UAE SAYS SITUATION CURRENTLY SAFE AFTER POTENTIAL THREAT ALERT

While it is unclear what may have prompted the escalation, especially since the UAE and Iran are now aggressively backchanneling, moments earlier the Iranian foreign ministry spokesman said that Iran's military capabilities guarantee its right to self-defense. And now we wait to see if more fireworks are coming. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/26/2026 - 09:27

Vance: Iran Agreed To Establish A Direct Line Between IRGC & US Military

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Vice President JD Vance has said that during talks in Switzerland, Iranian officials agreed to establish a direct line of communication between Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the US military.

Vance told Sohrab Ahmari, the US editor for UnHerd, that one of the things the US wanted to "come out" of the talks with was a "channel on the Iranian side" for reducing conflict.

Reuters/Pool

"Which we did. They were like, 'OK, fine, we’ll send somebody from the IRGC to go hang out in Doha with somebody from CENTCOM,' and that’s how we’re going to settle a lot of these disputes," the US vice president said during an interview conducted aboard Air Force Two on the flight home from Switzerland.

Flare-ups between the US and Iran remain possible, as the US hasn't reduced its forces in the region and there appear to be differences between the two sides’ views on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.

A direct communication channel between the two militaries, if implemented, could help de-escalate tensions after any flare-up to prevent the region from plunging back into full-scale war.

Vance also told Ahmari that Arab states like the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding "because of the conversations they’re having with the Iranians."

"The Emiratis — by far the most hawkish, by far the most pro-Israel country in the [Gulf Cooperation Council] — they’re having conversations with the Iranians that have never happened before, including with the IRGC, about various types of economic incentives — ‘Here’s what we’d need to see to make your country investable’ — and the Iranians come back and say, ‘Okay, yeah, we’re willing to do all those things,'" Vance said.

The UAE had taken a much more offensive role in the US-Israeli war against Iran than the other Gulf Arab states, and as a result, it was pounded by Iranian missiles and drones.

VP signals there is now an IRGC-CENTCOM channel as part of US-Iran talks https://t.co/3X3MTN1hlV

— Alex Ward (@alexbward) June 25, 2026

While more hawkish than other regional countries, Abu Dhabi, like the other Gulf countries, would likely prefer a diplomatic solution to a return to full-scale war since it would likely involve an escalation of Iranian attacks on oil infrastructure in the region.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/26/2026 - 09:20

Mamdani's Rent-Freeze Approved By NYC Guidelines Board

The New York City Rent Guidelines Board voted 7–1 to freeze rents on about 1 million rent-stabilized apartments for up to two years, giving tenants a win on a central campaign promise from Mayor Zohran Mamdani while revealing tensions over the board’s independence.

The board set the annual increase at zero percent for both one-year and two-year leases starting in October. The affected apartments house roughly 2.5 million residents. The board’s 2025 study found the average monthly rent in regulated units was $1,599 last year, far below the $3,950 that listings agency StreetEasy said was the median for new market-rate leases citywide.

As Kimberley Hayek reports for The Epoch Times, the decision comes after the board’s usual review of wages, inflation, maintenance costs, taxes, and landlord incomes. Tenants at public hearings called for a freeze or outright reduction, citing stagnant pay and higher living costs. Landlord representatives argued that a zero percent increase would hurt building upkeep and mortgage payments. Some owners have offset losses by raising rents on unregulated apartments, the board was told.

Mamdani, who took office in January, appointed six of the nine board members. Hours ahead of the vote, landlord representative Christina Smyth, appointed by the prior mayor, resigned. She said the panel had been rebuilt to produce this outcome.

“This rebuilt board was required to deliver a rent freeze,” Smyth said. “Everything since has been theater.”

Board Chair Chantella Mitchell, a Mamdani appointee, maintained that the board and its staff served with full independence and integrity. The other landlord representative, Maksim Wynn, also a Mamdani appointee, drew boos from tenant advocates at the Manhattan proceedings but voted for the freeze. The crowd erupted with cheers and whistles when the outcome was announced.

Ann Korchak, board president of Small Property Owners of New York, called the vote a farce.

“Defunding rent-stabilized housing when the [Rent Guidelines Board’s] own data showed a 5.3 percent increase in operational costs and expenses is setting up already financially distressed small owners for failure, which plays into Mamdani’s sinister plan to illegally take private property and convert it into socialized housing,” she told The Epoch Times in an emailed statement.

Mamdani called the vote a breakthrough.

“This is a historic victory for New York City tenants,” he said in a statement. “This is the relief that working people across our city deserve.”

The action marks the first major delivery on Mamdani’s housing agenda. The democratic socialist mayor campaigned explicitly on freezing rents for regulated apartments and holds sole authority to appoint the Rent Guidelines Board’s members. In May, Mamdani unveiled a broader “Block by Block” housing plan that calls for building 200,000 new units over 10 years while preserving another 200,000 through subsidies or other measures, including potential property interventions.

Previous rent freezes under former Mayor Bill de Blasio covered only one-year leases. Thursday’s vote applies to both lease terms and follows weeks of hearings and a rally outside El Museo Del Barrio that drew hundreds of tenants.

The board’s action applies only to rent-stabilized units, primarily in pre-1974 buildings or those that received certain tax benefits. Market-rate apartments remain unaffected.

Mamdani, whose campaign promised to pursue affordability, moved into the mayor’s official residence after his election. Before that, he lived in a rent-regulated one-bedroom apartment in Queens.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/26/2026 - 09:00

Futures Drop, Chips Resume Slide As OpenAI IPO Delay Dents Sentiment

Futures point to a lower start for cash trading on the last day of the week, as tech stocks dragged global indexes lower following renewed selling in chipmakers, while a report that OpenAI could postpone plans to go public also weighed on sentiment. The volatility reflects a valuation test, profit‑taking and flow-driven positioning, according to Christian Stocker, equity strategist at UniCredit, who suggests it’s a “temporary correction within a still-intact long-term AI growth trend.” As of 8:00am ET, Nasdaq 100 futures slid 1.1%, while those on the S&P 500 fell 0.4%. In premarket trading, semiconductor names, including Micron and optical stocks were broadly lower following news of OpenAI’s IPO delay; the "chip paying" hyperscalers showing moderate gains as the equilibrium seems to shift away from chip stocks. A selloff in Korean chip giants Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix triggered a second trading suspension in Seoul within days. Oil resumed its slide, failing to lift stocks but offering a fillip to bonds. Bond yields declined further led by the front-end of the curve: 2y is down 3.5bp; USD is lower. Oil fell -2.74 this morning to $69.18. US economic data calendar includes May goods trade balance, retail and wholesale inventories (8:30am), June final University of Michigan sentiment (10am) and Kansas City Fed services activity (11am). Fed speaker slate includes Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari at 11:30am

In premarket trading, Mag 7 are mixed: Microsoft is the is a top gainer as investors rotate into software stocks from hardwar (Microsoft +0.8%, Apple +0.5%, Amazon unchanged, Meta Platforms +0.3%, Alphabet -0.7%, Nvidia -1%, Tesla -1.1%).

• Semiconductor stocks are broadly lower amid investor concerns over the staying power of chip demand given price increases seen across Apple and Xbox products. A potential delay to OpenAI’s IPO, as reported by the New York Times, also dampened risk sentiment.
• ON Semiconductor (ON) slides 14% after the chipmaker agreed to an all-stock deal to buy Synaptics. Analysts worry that buying a business that’s exposed to smart devices and the consumer market may distract a push to supply for AI data centers. Synaptics (SYNA) is up 4.2%.
• Rocket Lab (RKLB) gains about 1% after the space firm said NASA selected it to provide three Electron launches for two missions, PolSIR and TSIS-2, from early 2027.
• Tango Therapeutics (TNGX) climbs 5% after Jefferies upgraded the drug developer to buy citing durability of its experimental therapy to treat pancreatic cancer.
• Wise (WSE) climbs 5% after the financial technology firm announced it will begin a new buyback program and reported results for the full year which analysts say were in line with expectations.

In other corporate news, EV maker Polestar will exit the US after the Commerce Department banned the company due to a rule prohibiting Chinese software in cars, according to the WSJ. And Volkswagen is looking to cut tens of thousands of additional jobs and may shutter factories in a push to be more competitive, Manager Magazin reported.

Markets are capping a volatile week in which shifting sentiment around the once-relentless tech trade whipsawed stocks, with traders parsing everything from spending plans to corporate earnings. Investors pulled money from US equities for the first time in three months, with record withdrawals from tech.

Friday’s bout of weakness came as price increases in products from Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp. triggered fears about the staying power of chip demand. A New York Times report that OpenAI could delay its initial public offering until 2027 also brought into focus how volatility could affect the sector. In Japan, OpenAI backer SoftBank Group Corp. tumbled following the NYT report, sending the Nikkei 225 down 4.2%. The tech sector led declines in Europe as well, with the Stoxx 600 on course for its worst performance since the middle of May.

“Technology remains a crowded trade, positioning is relatively tight, and that makes the sector more sensitive to negative news flow or sharp moves in individual names,” said Francisco Simon, European head of strategy at Santander Asset Management.

AI valuations relative to the rest of the S&P 500 have fallen to their lowest levels since the Iran war, with AI stocks now trading at just a 15% P/E premium to ex-AI stocks, notes Bloomberg. The case for the AI trade remains intact, but the risk of getting it wrong has risen considerably with leverage, crowding and dispersion in focus.

Investors say the roller-coaster week shows that while the case for the AI-trade is still strong, the days of everything going up in a straight line appear to be over. While there hasn’t been panic selling, the cracks are real, and extreme investor positioning means the easy days could be a thing of the past.

The most sensible strategy “is to maintain well-diversified portfolios across geographies, styles, sizes, companies, and sectors,” said David Manso, chief investment officer at CaixaBank AM. “In a couple of weeks, the earnings season will kick off, and leading indicators are pointing in the right direction. We expect corporate results to become a positive catalyst.”

Also in AI, the Pentagon has revised its doctrine on how the US military picks its targets in battle, opening the way for AI to make critical wartime decisions in the future.

In politics, New York City’s Rent Guidelines Board voted to freeze some apartment rents, handing Mayor Mamdani a major political victory. Commerce Secretary Lutnick intervened to delay the opening of a new bridge between the US and Canada and is pressing to renegotiate the deal for a larger share of toll revenue. 

The Stoxx 600 is down by 0.6%, with energy and technology equities leading declines, while food beverage and personal care drug stocks are the biggest outperformers. Here are the biggest movers Friday:

• Wise shares climb as much as 8.2% after the financial technology firm announced it will begin a new buyback program and reported results for the full year which analysts say were in line with expectations
• Pandora shares rise as much as 5.1% after BofA upgraded the stock to buy from underperform, saying it has a “clear catalyst path ahead as main pressures subside and LFL [like-for-like sales] stabilizes”
• Barratt Redrow and Bellway climb after Berenberg upgrades both stocks to buy, saying depressed valuations, strong balance sheets and attractive capital returns create selective opportunities in UK housebuilders despite a downbeat market outlook
• Koninklijke KPN shares rise as much as 2.5% after the Dutch telecoms firm was upgraded at Citi, as analysts said there is an opportunity for investors to increase their holding in a “quality stock” following a recent pullback
• Technology shares declined in Europe, following Asia peers lower, after Apple slumped Thursday following price increases on its products. A report that OpenAI may delay its IPO also weighed on sentiment
• Zalando shares fall as much as 11% after the German Financial Supervisory Authority BaFin opened a probe into the online fashion retailer’s 2025 report over suspected violations of accounting rules
• Accor shares drop as much as 2.8%, pulling back from an all-time high after the hotelier was downgraded at Jefferies. Analysts believe any potential recovery in the Middle East is already priced in
• INWIT shares slip as much as 2.1% after a downgrade to neutral from buy at Goldman Sachs, which sees “heightened operating and structural uncertainty” for the Italian telecoms company’s investment case

Asian stocks resumed their decline after a brief reprieve the prior day, as concerns about the sustainability of recent tech gains weighed on sentiment. Trading in Asian stocks has remained volatile, with investors torn between whether the rally in technology shares is stretched or backed by confidence in continued AI-driven growth. In the end, tech stocks dragged Asia lower, with the Kospi falling 5.8% and the Nikkei 225 dropping 4.2%. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 3.6%, with Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and TSMC weighing most on the gauge. South Korea, Japan and Taiwan led declines. For the week, the index has fallen more than 4%, on track for its worst showing since early March. The selloff comes after Apple said it raised prices to offset cost hikes caused by an unprecedented shortage of memory chips, dragging supplier shares across the region lower. For some, it underscored just how vulnerable the chip rally — which has lifted benchmarks to repeated highs — has become. 

“After recent performance, it’s not difficult to expect some consolidation,” said Kieran Calder, head of Asia equity research at Union Bancaire Privee. Apple price hikes highlighted “memory shortage impact on consumer electronics prices and part of the inflation narrative.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index down by 0.1% and the euro back to testing $1.14, while sterling has climbed back above $1.32. The Norwegian krone is underperforming among major currencies on the slide in oil prices.

In rates, a falling oil price is lifting short-end bonds across Europe and the US, with a pullback in bets on central bank rate hikes. US two-year yields falling by four basis points and outperforming moves in the same direction in Europe and the UK.

treasury futures hold gains led by front-end tenors, extending Thursday’s yield-curve steepening move, as oil prices resume their slide toward pre-war levels and short-term rate products price in less Fed tightening in the coming months. 2-year yields are lower by 3bp-4bp, long-end tenors by less than 1bp, steepening 2s10s curve by 1.5bp, 5s30s by 3bp; 10-year, down 2bp near 4.375%, outperforms bunds and gilts in the sector by around 1bp. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far. At least two borrowers stood down Thursday as three priced a combined $5.4 billion, paying about 5bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 3 times oversubscribed.

In commodities, Brent is sliding by nearly 4% and below $73/barrel and WTI futures are sinking toward $69/barrel and headed for biggest weekly drop in a month after transits through the Strait of Hormuz accelerated; Gold little changed but holding above $4,000/oz.

US economic data calendar includes May advance goods trade balance, May retail and wholesale inventories (8:30am), June final University of Michigan sentiment (10am) and Kansas City Fed services activity (11am). Fed speaker slate includes Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari at 11:30am

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister said the safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz without consideration of Iran's sovereignty is not guaranteed. This follows an Iranian strike on a Singapore-flagged cargo ship after failing to follow the set route: RTRS
• Traffic through Strait of Hormuz slows after attack on ship: RTRS
• US Chip Stocks Decline on Worries Over Memory Prices, OpenAI IPO: BBG
• US President Trump said we have a new market coming up called Iran and added that Iran wants to make a deal with us very badly and thinks they will make a deal.
• Venezuela Seeks Survivors as Quakes Death Toll Hits 235; Quake Crisis to Test Legitimacy of Rodriguez Regime: BBG
• OpenAI Leans Toward Holding Up I.P.O. Until Next Year: NYT
• SpaceX Plans New Starlink Mobile Service for US Consumers: FT
• US President Trump's administration asked OpenAI to restrict the launch of its next model, GPT-5.6, to only a small set of government-approved partners before a wider release due to security concerns: Axios.
• Russian hawks urge Putin to escalate war, drop US talks as Ukraine strikes deep: RTRS
• Volkswagen weighs up to 100,000 job cuts and four plant closures in overhaul: RTRS
• On immigration, Supreme Court accedes to Trump's restrictive agenda: RTRS
• Wall Street Realizes It Needs More Than Money to Counter Mamdani: WSJ
• Representatives Gottheimer (D) and Moolenaar (R) are reportedly introducing legislation that would allow US cloud companies to report suspected foreign misuse of advanced AI computing: Axios 
• Novak Djokovic Joins General Atlantic in His Wall Street Debut: BBG
• BofA's weekly flow report notes USD 25.5bln out of cash, USD 5.0bln out of stocks, USD 16.6bln into bonds, USD 0.5bln out of gold. Bull & Bear Indicator fell to 9.1 (prev. 9.2)

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were pressured following the choppy performance stateside, where markets were indecisive amid two-way trade in tech, a recent data deluge and a rebound in oil. The overnight deterioration in risk sentiment coincided with renewed selling in tech after Apple raised prices of some products by nearly 20% and with OpenAI leaning towards delaying its IPO until next year. ASX 200 was rangebound with the index cushioned as the underperformance in tech, telecoms and healthcare was partially offset by resilience in some defensive stocks. Nikkei 225 suffered heavy losses as tech stocks dominated the list of worst performers, with SoftBank down by a double-digit percentage owing to its large exposure to AI and semiconductors. KOSPI remained volatile with the slump triggering a sidecar and eventual circuit breaker alongside notable declines in both Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the sell-off across the region amid the tech rout

Top Asian News

• China sharpened tools for retaliating against foreign sanctions with Beijing preparing a new law that would add to its ability to punish foreign companies and individuals deemed to harm Chinese interests, according to WSJ.
• PBoC has requested that some commercial banks increase lending in June amid ongoing weak credit demand, according to reports.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.9%) are entirely in the red in the last session of the week, driven by another day of losses in South Korea (SK Hynix -8.4%, Samsung -5.3%). Some analysts are citing Apple's price hikes on products due to memory chip shortages as a catalyst for the recent sell-off, raising concerns that rising component costs could curb demand for devices. An analyst at Javelin Wealth Management also said the recent gains for chipmakers could come at the expense of product manufacturers. The losses in South Korean giants have weighed on European chip names (Infineon -3.1%, ASML -1.0%) and indices composed of technology companies (DAX 40 -0.8%, AEX -0.6%). European sectors highlight a negative bias. Optimised Personal Care (+0.8%), Food, Beverages & Tobacco (+0.6%) and Utilities top the sector pile. Energy (-1.5%) is the underperformer again, with Technology (-1.4%) and Financial Services (-1.1%) also lagging.

Top European News

• The Times' Swinford reported that it is likely to be a two-horse race between Ed Miliband and Shabana Mahmood for chancellor, with allies of Streeting say they do not think he will get the job.

FX

• USD finds itself under modest pressure. DXY at a 101.18 base, but well clear of the 100.76 WTD low, with the index set to see the week out around the middle of its range. In brief, a tale of two halves for the index which began the week on the front foot before reversing after Thursday’s data deluge and continuing to slip since.
• EUR outperforms as a result of the continued USD pressure. No real move to the ECB CES, which showed a moderation in the 12-month price view and an uptick in the growth view. The growth revision is not enough to provide comfortable space for further tightening, and equally the price moderation is not sufficient to take another move off the table. Nonetheless, the price moderation does add to the post-PMI & Lagarde dovish tilt we have seen in recent days.
• In more detail, EUR/USD has breached 1.14 to the upside. Picking up gradually across the morning, as the US data on Thursday has and continues to permit an unwinding of some of the yield differential moves we have seen in recent days, with the Fed more-hawkish and ECB mixed but net less-hawkish, particularly from Lagarde as referenced. However, while it has hit a 1.1407 peak, EUR remains in the red on the week and continuing the near unbroken downward trend of the last seven weeks.
• Elsewhere, G10s generally are slightly firmer against the USD. With GBP the next-best behind EUR, comfortably above 1.3200 and flat/firmer WTD, but again, still towards post June policy announcement lows, as BoE expectations coalesce around the on hold for the foreseeable narrative, despite the hawkish dissenters.
• CAD, JPY and CHF all faring around equally. Of those, USD/JPY participants remain on watch for potential intervention risk, particularly as Japanese authorities tend to target Friday’s and go with the market move rather than fighting it. USD/JPY just above a 161.53 base, and while the JPY is firmer today the bearish trend remains near-enough unbroken at a weekly level over the last month and a half.
• Today is spot month/quarter-end. As a reminder, Barclays model was neutral overall for the USD against all majors, formed of a moderate USD buying signal on the month-end, but countered by a strong USD sell signal for quarter-end

Commodities

• The US-Iran situation remains complex. It was reported that the IRGC attacked a Singapore-flagged cargo ship, after it attempted to traverse through the Strait through a route not designated by the Iranians. This led the UN to pause its evacuation plans for ships around the Strait. Despite the attack, Bloomberg data continues to indicate that ships continue to traverse through the Hormuz, highlighting that traffic continues to flow in “both directions”.
• On the Lebanon front. The US-mediated Lebanon-Israel talks were expected to conclude on Wednesday, but were then extended into today. Israeli sources have suggested that there has been some progress, but no deal has been reached thus far. The negotiations focus on the withdrawal of Israeli troops from southern Lebanon; there may be a chance that Israel will only withdraw from areas where operations have already been concluded, and continue such action in other parts of the region. Therefore, the risk is that Iran is not satisfied by the outcome of the talks, and potentially restart closures of the Strait.
• Crude benchmarks are in the red, with WTI (-3.5%) and Brent (-3.4%) holding at the bottom end of their respective USD 68.98-71.86/bbl and USD 72.14-75.13/bbl ranges. Despite the flare-up on the Strait in the prior session and the continued lack of progress between Lebanon and Israel, crude prices continue to slip. It is the case that as long as ships continue to traverse the Strait, other friction points can be ignored… at least in the short term.
• Spot gold (+0.2%) is ever so slightly firmer this morning, but continues to remain near recent troughs. Today, the yellow-metal holds just above the USD 4k/oz mark, and within a USD 3,982-4,039/oz range. Elsewhere, base metals are broadly slightly lower this morning, with 3M LME copper currently off by c. 0.6%. It currently holds around USD 13.25k/t and within a USD 13,088.3-13,281/t range.
• Saudi Aramco reopened the Ras Tanura oil loading operations after a prolonged halt, with two supertankers loading oil at Ras Tanura on Friday, while another is awaiting loading, according to shipping data.
• Several Japanese-related vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz as part of IMO evacuation plans, which have since been suspended following the attack on a cargo ship, according to Mainichi.
• China's MOFCOM released a list of non-state Chinese companies eligible for oil imports.
• Kazakhstan cut the gas production at the Karachaganak gas field after Ukraine drone attacks on Russia's Orenburg gas processing plant. Raw gas from the field is usually delivered to the Orenburg plant.
• Kazakhstan Energy Minister said we may consider fuel exports to Russia if there is an official request.
• Russia is considering a short-term ban on diesel exports for a few months, TASS reported.

Central Banks

• Fed's Goolsbee (2027 voter) said it is difficult to determine whether inflation pressures are persistent or temporary, while noting inflation is moving in the wrong direction, and some of that is being driven by one-off factors. He added that inflation remains more concerning on the services side and that spending based on expected future gains makes him concerned about potential inflationary pressures. Goolsbee also said there are some signs of improvement in services inflation, but it remains well above where it needs to be, as well as stated that core inflation it is still too high and trending in the wrong direction, while services-driven core CPI is more concerning than inflation driven by goods or oil-related items. Furthermore, he stated that wages are not a particularly good leading indicator for inflation and that inflation could rise before wages do, adding that inflation needs to be monitored closely.

Geopolitics

• US President Trump said they have a new market coming up called Iran, and that Iran wants to make a deal with them very badly, while he thinks that they will make a deal and stated the Strait is open.
• Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister said safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz without consideration of Iran's sovereignty is not guaranteed and that any framework for passage through Hormuz must be in coordination with Iran, otherwise it will be suspended from the designated route.
• N12's Segal posted after a conversation with a source on the Iranian issue, "His opinion on the agreement and the situation is much less negative than what has been written anywhere else, including here."
• Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters declared that if the US is unable to contain and control the Zionist regime, Iran will not tolerate any threat against itself and considers it its right to respond to these dangerous actions.
• Israeli Embassy in Washington said due to extension in the discussions, negotiations between Israel and Lebanon mediated by the US will continue on Friday for a fourth day, according to a Kan reporter.
• Israeli Energy Minister said the withdrawal from southern Lebanon is not under consideration and would be rejected even if requested by US President Trump, while he stated that Israel does not plan to occupy all of Lebanon, but intends to establish full security control over the entire Gaza Strip.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said that we will remain in the security zone in southern Lebanon as long as necessary and have ordered the army to have complete freedom of action to counter any threat against our forces or residents of the North.
• UN said the Lebanon ceasefire is largely holding, though Israeli military operations inside Lebanon continue. It was separately reported that Israel's military conducted airstrikes on Beit Yahun, Lebanon, while Israeli tank movements were reported in Wadi Saluqi and Bint Jbeil, Lebanon.
• IAEA chief Grossi said it's undeniable we have an agreement that IAEA will have access to Iran for inspection, while added that they hope to resume their work in Iran soon.
• GCC Secretary General said the proposed USD 300bln for the reconstruction of Iran has not been presented to us officially or unofficially, and it has not been discussed with the US, Sky News Arabia reported.
• Russia claimed to have shut down 660 Ukrainian drones overnight, Moscow's mayor reported that 47 drones were intercepted that were heading to the capital.
• North Korean leader Kim oversaw the testing of key weapons, according to KCNA.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: May P Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.6%
• 10:00 am: Jun F U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 50, prior 48.9
• 11:30 am: Fed’s Kashkari at Aspen Ideas Panel

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I can pretty much guarantee the imminent end of the extreme record-breaking heatwave currently engulfing most of Europe, and a very low chance it will ever return. Last night my wife spent a small fortune ordering industrial fans for everyone's bedrooms. So stand by for the next ice-age.

There seems to be a mini ice-age in Asia this morning with tech again selling off. The KOSPI is slumping -8.01% as I type with the Nikkei -4.54% lower. SoftBank is around -14% lower after the NYT suggested that OpenAI may delay its IPO until 2027. This follows a sharp decline for the Magnificent 7 (-2.54%) yesterday. The tech mega cap index moved deeper into correction territory after the news that Apple (-6.12%) would be raising the price of its Macs and iPads. That came in response to demand surges for memory and storage, but the news played into broader concerns that AI data centres were generating inflationary pressures. Marion and Camilla in my team wrote an excellent piece last week looking at the recent parabolic increase in memory prices, and its potential macro impact. Apple's announcement yesterday emphasizes some of these themes. See it on the Deutsche Bank Research Institute site here.

Elsewhere in Asia the Shanghai Comp is -2.14% lower with the Hang Seng -1.87%. S&P 500 (-0.71%), NASDAQ (-1.45%) and European Stoxx (-0.79%) futures are also notably lower. In terms of data, headline and core core Tokyo CPI were both a tenth higher than expected at 1.7% and 1.9% respectively.

Ahead of that, markets had actually generally put in a decent performance yesterday amid encouraging US data even as oil prices rebounded from 3-month lows to post their biggest rise in three weeks. Most notably, the PCE inflation data for May (the Fed’s target measure) came in on the softer side, which pushed back a bit against the building narrative towards Fed rate hikes in recent weeks. Indeed, headline PCE was only up +0.4% on the month (vs. +0.5% expected), whilst core PCE was at a softer +0.3% on the month as expected.

That PCE release helped markets to dial back expectations of Fed rate hikes. For instance, the amount of hikes priced by December fell to 34bps by the close, down -1.5bps on the day. So there was growing speculation again that the Fed might not need to hike at all this year, even as Fed officials remain cautious on the inflation outlook. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that core inflation is "still well too high and it's trending the wrong way", while New York Fed President Williams called inflation “unquestionably elevated”. Nonetheless, front-end Treasury yields declined, with the 2yr yield (-2.4bps) down to 4.12%, its lowest since last week’s Fed meeting, while the 10yr yield (+0.1bps) was little changed at 4.39%. They are down another -3.3bps and -2.2bps respectively this morning.  

Whilst the PCE release was the main focus, several other US releases added to the optimism around the economy. For example, the weekly initial jobless claims fell to 215k over the week ending June 20 (vs. 225k expected), so the labour market still appeared in decent shape. Meanwhile, the third estimate of Q1 GDP was also revised up half a point to an annualised rate of +2.1%, suggesting things were on a stronger footing than thought earlier this year.

That backdrop of strong data and more dovish Fed pricing meant most US stocks advanced even with some tech wobbles. However, the S&P 500 (-0.01%) ended up narrowly posting a fourth consecutive loss, as the tech sell-off we mentioned at the top dragged. It wasn't all bad news for tech as the Philly Semiconductor index rose +3.59%, with Micron surging +15.7% after Wednesday night's results. And more broadly, both the equal-weighted S&P (+0.67%) and the small-cap Russell 2000 (+0.71%) had solid days.

The market mood was also partially disrupted by news that a cargo ship was hit by unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, which also followed reports of some ships turning around while attempting to cross the strait. So that led to some renewed uncertainty over the normalization of shipping, after the number of vessels going through the strait had risen in recent days. Oil prices moved higher following the incident. Brent crude rose +2.06% to $75.26/bbl, despite have traded as low as $72.06/bbl earlier in the session, which was below its $72.48/bbl level on February 27, the day before the US and Israel began strikes on Iran. This morning Brent is back down -1.95% to $73.79 as I type.

Over in Europe, investors continued to price out the chance of further ECB rate hikes. In fact, the number of hikes priced by the December meeting fell to just 26bps by the close, down -3.2bps on the day. So that helped to push the STOXX 600 (+0.80%) to a record high by the close, alongside gains for the DAX (+1.03%), the CAC 40 (+0.55%) and the FTSE 100 (+0.65%). A large amount of that will likely reverse at the open this morning with the overnight sell-off. Meanwhile for sovereign bonds, the 10yr bund yield (-0.8bps) hit a 3-month low of 2.85%, alongside a marginal rise for yields on 10yr OATs (+0.4bps) and BTPs (+0.1bps).

Looking at the day ahead now, US data releases include the advance goods trade balance for May, and the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for June. We’ll also get the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey for May and hear from the Fed’s Kashkari and the ECB’s Vujcic.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/26/2026 - 08:31

Warships, Helicopters, Transport Planes: US Military Shifts Assets To Quake-Ravaged Venezuela

Venezuela's massive twin-earthquake disaster, which unfolded on Wednesday evening, has left dozens of apartment towers and other structures in ruins. The death toll has climbed to about 235, with at least 4,300 people injured. On one independent monitoring platform, the number of missing topped 50,000 overnight.

The sheer scale of the disaster across several districts of Caracas has prompted an international response, with the U.S. Southern Command deploying military assets to the quake-ravaged country. The disaster also marks a major test for acting President Delcy Rodríguez in a post-Maduro world.

SOUTHCOM is deploying the USS Fort Lauderdale, USS Billings, C-17 and C-130 transport aircraft, reconnaissance platforms, helicopters, and other mobility assets to assist U.S. personnel, search-and-rescue teams, and interagency partners as they assess damage, locate survivors, and deliver emergency aid.

📍#UnitedStates / #Venezuela (🇺🇸/🇻🇪)@Southcom Commander Gen. Francis L. Donovan has announced the following assets have been mobilized:

- USS Fort Lauderdale (LPD-28)
- USS Billings (LCS-15)
- C-17 Globemaster
- C-130 Hercules
- Reconnaissance Platforms
- Rotary-wing aircraft. https://t.co/TDnKgkncj9 pic.twitter.com/umxFmofs95

— SA Defensa (@SA_Defensa) June 26, 2026

SOUTHCOM noted that it will "work closely with interim Venezuelan authorities to plan, coordinate, and direct the U.S. military's unparalleled logistical and operational capabilities in support of rapid relief operations across the affected areas." 

Earthquake relief support from the sea:
The @USNavy has a proud legacy of providing disaster relief directly from the sea.#SOUTHCOM has directed USS Fort Lauderdale (LPD 28) and USS Billings (LCS 15) to Venezuela to support @DeptofState-led U.S. government relief operations in… pic.twitter.com/z1JJ0aLjSl

— U.S. Southern Command (@Southcom) June 26, 2026

The open-source intelligence X account, TheIntelFrog, reports that US airlift operations have begun.  

The US response to the earthquake disaster in Venezuela is well underway.
📍The first related C-17, #AE1449 as RCH234, arrived in Curacao overnight.
📍#AE2FA6 as RCH525 is en route with members of USA-02 urban search & rescue team.
📍#AE07F8 as RCH421 is en route with members of… pic.twitter.com/4mznPCySI7

— TheIntelFrog (@TheIntelFrog) June 26, 2026

Boots on the ground. 

RELEASE: SOUTHCOM Leadership Arrives in Venezuela to Coordinate Earthquake Relief Support

U.S. Marine Corps Maj. Gen. Kevin J. Jarrard arrived in Caracas, Venezuela, today, to oversee Department of War support to Venezuela earthquake relief efforts.

Maj. Gen. Jarrard is serving… pic.twitter.com/sCIhyuI63L

— U.S. Southern Command (@Southcom) June 26, 2026

Con velocidad, precisión y una capacidad logística incomparable, equipos de EE. UU. se están desplegando para apoyar las operaciones de respuesta tras los devastadores terremotos en Venezuela. Esta noche recibimos en Caracas al Mayor General Jarrard, quien coordinará estos… pic.twitter.com/u7b7poZZfj

— Embajada de los EE.UU. en Caracas (@usembassyve) June 26, 2026

U.S. military rotary-wing aircraft have proven to be lifelines during multiple disaster relief missions. #SOUTHCOM is sending rotary-wing aircraft to support @StateDept-led U.S. government earthquake relief operations in Venezuela.

These aircraft will provide critical… pic.twitter.com/IqNgJmQTkk

— U.S. Southern Command (@Southcom) June 26, 2026

In a post-socialist, post-Maduro world, Rodríguez faces a once-in-a-generation natural disaster crisis that will likely shape the future of her administration after January's Delta Force operation to remove Nicolás Maduro from power. An effective and powerful response will certaintly help and increase popularity.

For Rodríguez, "the emergency is simultaneously a risk and an opportunity," Venezuelan political analyst Benigno Alarcón said in a report quoted by Bloomberg. If the response is rapid and transparent, "the interim government can recover performance legitimacy. If it is opaque, militarized, exclusionary, or corrupt, the social cost, international pressure, and the probability of fractures will increase."

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/26/2026 - 08:20

IAEA Chief Confirms Nuclear Inspectors Returning To Iran, No Timeline Given

For the first time since the US-Iran MoU was signed earlier this month, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced it will have access to Iran for official inspections of the country's nuclear facilities.

However, a precise timeline for when the inspections are expected to commence was not given. "There is an agreement and to comply with that agreement, the IAEA will have to have access and inspect,” UN nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi said at a news conference in Japan. "We hope to be there soon."

"The inspections will indeed take place," he emphasized to reporters. "We will be working on the modalities - dates, procedures, places - very soon."

via AFP

The agreement signed last week said "explicitly" that the dilution of Iran's highly enriched uranium would be carried out under IAEA supervision, he added.

But importantly, Tehran has in the last days made its position clear that it will keep key sites off-limits until a final deal with Washington is reached and sanctions are lifted.

US chief negotiator in Switzerland, JD Vance, came away insisting that the IAEA will soon return - which Iranian officials have contradicted.

Grossi had further stated in his Friday remarks that the Iranians' pledge to not pursue a nuclear weapon would need "very strong" verification.

But he also conceded that thus far the UN agency itself had "barely initiated" talks with Iran on the heels of the formalized MoU agreement with the United States.

"I think the objective of this agreement is to ensure that there is no development of nuclear weapons in Iran. The government of Iran has declared quite clearly that this is not their intention," Grossi continued.

"But of course intentions are not enough. We have to have a very strong verification system in place... as soon as is practicable," he added.

The US administration has so far said that it is not prepared to budge on this issue of thorough inspections. Ironically the 2015 JCPOA under Obama, which Trump has frequently lambasted, included just such an inspection regimen.

“It's not over yet, but so far, so good.”

Vice President JD Vance praised President Trump's handling of Iran at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library, arguing the administration has stayed focused on its original mission despite outside pressure.

Vance said Trump's objective… pic.twitter.com/Ab56zctHzo

— Fox News (@FoxNews) June 25, 2026

It remains to be seen whether the US can get a better inspection deal in place, or whether any new scenario will fall short of the prior JCPOA. Tehran sees itself in a strong position, and won't so easily accept demands which it deems as giving too much to the US and Israel.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/26/2026 - 08:05

Russia Says It Downed Almost 700 Ukrainian Drones In Massive Overnight Barrage As Fuel Shortages Worsen

Russia's Defense Ministry claimed Friday morning that the military intercepted at least 660 Ukrainian drones across the country and Crimea, in what shaped up to be one of the most massive overnight aerial assaults since the 2022 invasion began. Drones being sent across the border in the hundreds has become a nightly, highly escalatory affair of late.

Anti-air defenses in the capital region were busy, with Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin confirming that at least 47 inbound drones on a were downed starting around 2:30am local time. Sobyanin reported no casualties or structural damage, stating only that emergency services were working at the sites of fallen debris. This month has already witnessed several instances of major airport closures among the capital's four commercial hubs.

If Russia did indeed down around 660 drones, this means there there was possibly over a thousand initially launched, given the intercept rate is typically less than the amount of UAV's which make it through. This has been the pattern from both sides of the border.

Illustrative: Low-flying suicide drones have defined much of this war, wreaking havoc on both sides.

Drone injures and strikes were reported outside the capital region though. For example in the Tula region, over 110 miles to the south of Moscow, Governor Dmitry Milyayev announced that a woman was wounded during the strike.

He also described that an "industrial facility" was struck in the town of Novomoskovsk. Some unverified reports quickly identified the target as the massive Azot chemical plant. Social media videos point to a drone strike.

Ukraine is intent on making life inside Russia as painful as possible, in order to put pressure on the Kremlin to end the war. According to fresh reporting:

A fast-growing number of regional officials and gas station chains across Russia are restricting gasoline and diesel sales as Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refineries and supply networks take a mounting toll on supplies. 

Fuel rationing measures were in place in at least 56 Russian regions as of Thursday, according to open-source data analyzed by The Moscow Times. 

In dozens more regions, residents are complaining about fast-rising gasoline prices, closed filling stations and miles-long lines, while some local authorities and major retailers remain hesitant to enact rationing. 

“In some districts of our republic, there is no fuel at gas stations right now, so people go to [the capital] Kyzyl to refuel,” said a resident of Tyva, a southern Siberian republic roughly the size of Tunisia. 

Ukraine's asymmetric warfare against Russia's much-larger and better armed military machine is in a significantly better position than the status of a year or so ago. Russian forces still have the upper-hand on the front line in the east, but the pain clearly being inflicted on Russia's economy can't be ignored at this point.

Smoke was rising from the Azot chemical plant in Novomoskovsk, Tula region, after a massive drone attack overnight and in the morning. Regional authorities confirmed damage to an industrial facility, power lines and a residential building. #Russia pic.twitter.com/ANkCXXyj7T

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) June 26, 2026

In the meantime, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had announced Thursday a 40-day "influence operation" engineered by Ukraine's SBU security service designed to "compel" Russia to end the war.

The sheer volume of Friday's overnight attack underscores that Zelensky and Ukraine's military feel they have some rare momentum going and so must capitalize on it. Many regions of Russia seem powerless to stop the inbound drone waves, given conventional air defenses are set up to defend primarily against larger, faster-moving projectiles like missiles or jets.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/26/2026 - 07:45

OpenAI Plans Delaying IPO Until 2027, Blames SpaceX

One month ago, during the height of the tokenmaxxing craze - when companies were spending ridiculous amounts of money, in many cases without knowing they were even doing so, just to test out the latest agentic craze - first OpenAI and then Anthropic rushed to announce they will follow in the footsteps of the SpaceX IPO, and were planning (or rather hoping) to go public in the next quarter or two. To validate its euphoric IPO dreams, Anthropic even trotted out a lafughable ARR of $47 billion, a number which besides being laughably incoherent and a non-GAAP mish-mash of adjustments and double counting, also took advantage of said tokenmaxxing frenzy.

Then following a furious blowback against said tokenmaxxing which has seen a collapse in agentic spending and an aggressive shift to much cheaper Chinese models, we said two weeks ago that we are eagerly awaiting Anthropic's new ARR, one which reflects the revulsion to Claude's stratospheric token costs.

Meanwhile, Anthropic quietly annualized the one-time bumper revenue from Feb-May on the agentic splurge when nobody had any idea what they were paying, to come up with the ludicrous $47BN ARR.

Let's see what ARR is next month after clients finally checked their token bills.

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 11, 2026

And while we wait, Anthropic's biggest competitor, OpenAI - which unlike its peer has been far less vocal about its latest annualized revenue numbers - appears to have realized that going public at a time when agentic spending is suddenly in freefall (Goldman's best "efforts" to predict 120 quadrillion monthly tokens by 2030 notwithstanding) may not be the best idea, and according to the NYT is now leaning toward punting its IPO until next year in hopes that the AI bubble will be even bigger next year.

OpenIA's odds of a 2026 IPO promptly tumbled on Polymarket, and were last below 30% from over 50% before the report.

So what is going on, and how did OpenAI - which earlier this month said it had filed confidential paperwork with securities regulators to kick off the process for going public, but it did not commit publicly to any time window - frame the delay so it doesn't sounds like it rushed out its plans to IPO on a one-time bumper revenue burst, only to reverse them as the overpaid agentic euphoria has fizzled? 

Why blame Elon of course.

The NYT reports that when the ChatGPT maker hired bankers and lawyers with an eye toward IPOing as soon as the third or fourth quarter of this year, Sam Altman pushed those advisers to find a way for the start-up to be valued at $1 trillion, up from the company’s last private valuation of $730 billion. 

OpenAI’s advisers presented company executives with the option of waiting until 2027 to go public with a $1 trillion valuation, or lower the targeted valuation for a quicker IPO, which would be a disaster as the IPO would effectively admit that OpenAI can't keep up with the growth rate of Anthropic which a month ago raised $65 billion in a $965 billion private funding round. Altman responded that any change to the trillion-dollar valuation was a nonstarter.

But, the report goes on, "a cascade of recent developments has caused OpenAI’s executives to shift away from their most aggressive aspirations" and the primary scapegoat is Elon Musk’s, and specifically the performance of SpaceX after its I.P.O. this month. "It was the largest ever, raising more than $85 billion and reaching a valuation of $1.77 trillion on its debut. Since then, SpaceX’s stock has been on a downward slide, as shares slumped to $153 at the end of the trading day on Thursday after reaching a high of $202 last week."

Realizing it would look very stupid if it just blamed the very same company that prompted it to rush its IPO in the first place, the NYT also blamed global markets which "have also been choppy in recent weeks, with tech stocks dragging down indexes as investors question whether AI companies will live up to their sky-high promises."

Nowhere in this above is there a mention of the only thing that actually does matter to investors: the financials, and one can only imagine what is going on there after the early Q2 "tokenmaxxing" agentic burst which has now fizzled. OpenAI said this year that it was generating $2 billion in revenue each month but we are patiently waiting for an update now that the latest series of open Chinese models offer 95% of the US frontier performance for 10% of the price (as discussed in "Answering The "Trillion Dollar Question": Are China's AI Models A Better Value Than US Models"). 

It's not just China: OpenAI faces acute pressures at home too. Anthropic, which offers a Claude Code tool for creating sophisticated software code, has been far more successful in selling its service to enterprises (at least until the tokenmaxxing fiasco). At the same time, Google’s Gemini, the tech giant’s flagship consumer AI product, has become popular with users.

The NYT however is correct that OpenAI’s postponing its IPO plans - for whatever reason - will disappoint Wall Street and Silicon Valley, especially not if but when its main rival Anthropic, which has been in very hot water with the Trump admin for months, does the same. 

There's more.

Besides creating SpaceX strawmen, OpenAI is also grappling with other issues. Late last year, CFO Sarah Friar said it was not pursuing an I.P.O. at the time and was focusing on shoring up its finances. However, since then the company has done just the opposite as it has continued to pour money into data centers and computing power, with no indications of slowing down. 

Some OpenAI executives appeared to have changed their minds about an IPO just a few months after Friar said the company was not looking to go public. The Wall Street Journal reported that the company planned to go public by the end of 2026. That surprised some employees because they thought the company was not on a strong enough financial footing.

The company has also been spending like a drunken sailor on marketing and recruiting high-profile engineering talent from companies like Meta and Google. Realizing that it is losing market share to both Anthropic and Chinese open-sourced models, ChatGPT is also searching for other lines of revenue, including dabbling with placing ads inside ChatGPT and striking e-commerce deals with companies like Shopify and Stripe that would allow people to buy things from online stores directly inside ChatGPT.

The biggest problem facing OpenAI, however, is that growth has plateaued: after years of surging downloads of ChatGPT’s consumer app, those numbers have slowed and continue to hover around 900 million users, surprising investors who believed the company would easily hit one billion.

And the wildcard is now that the US government is actively throttling the latest frontier models over concerns they may hack sensitive government agencies, today the Information reported that OpenAI is releasing its latest GPT-5.6 model only as a limited preview to a small group of partners. The reason, according to Sam Altman: the U.S. government asked it to. Altman reportedly told staff that the government will be "approving access customer by customer" during the preview period, with a broader release potentially following a couple of weeks later. This comes after Anthropic took a similar path with Mythos, and after the White House forced Anthropic to withdraw Fable and Mythos over national security concerns. 

And now that the "uncorruptible" Trump admin is actively involved in picking winners and losers in the frontier model race, both OpenAI and Anthropic will watch their ARR collapse as most enterprise clients realize they will have better productivity gains by going with the latest Chinese models which, paradoxcially, are now easier to access in the US than domestic made versions. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/26/2026 - 07:25

Boiling Frog Nation

Authored by Kevin Finn via AmericanThinker.com,

I almost feel sorry for leftists. Almost. But I don’t. The reason is simple: so much of what they say and do runs counter to the core principles on which this country was founded.

Over the years, I’ve challenged dozens of left-leaning friends and acquaintances to name the top ten things the political left has done in the last quarter-century to make America safer, stronger, more prosperous, or more united. I have yet to receive a substantive answer. One person offered a list that included ObamaCare and the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA). A quick review shows that, like many Democrat initiatives, these created more problems than they solved.

What makes me almost pity the left is that most leftists I know personally are decent, pleasant people -- so long as the conversation stays light: weather, movies, or sports. Venture into politics or culture, however, and the discussion turns surreal, like chatting with the Mad Hatter.

These individuals consider themselves well-informed.

They read the daily papers, watch network news, and never miss 60 Minutes. They speak of Rachel Maddow as if she were a close friend and dismiss Fox News out of hand. Yet they’ve never heard of journalists like John Solomon nor outlets like the Epoch Times. It rarely occurs to them to seek out differing perspectives. “Garbage in, garbage out,” as the old saying goes.

Søren Kierkegaard observed that there are two ways to err: to believe what is not true, and to refuse to believe what is true. Leftists frequently demonstrate both. They linger on stories long after those stories have been debunked, while major developments that threaten our country and culture receive little or no attention.

Consider a recent example. Legacy media devoted intense coverage to algae growing in the reflecting pool on the National Mall in Washington, D.C.

One might think it was a national emergency. The reporting largely blamed the new blue liner and warm, shallow water. What it downplayed were the reports of vandalism that damaged the recently restored pool in the first place.

Meanwhile, far more consequential stories are ignored.

Tulsi Gabbard’s declassification of documents credibly alleging that Anthony Fauci’s agency helped fund the Wuhan lab, misled Congress about COVID-19’s origins, and overstated the effectiveness of vaccines, masks, lockdowns, and social distancing drew almost no mainstream coverage.

Conservatives have repeatedly labeled certain events “the scandal of our time,” only to watch legacy media minimize, distort, or bury them. The list is long: Benghazi, the Skolkovo technology transfer, Hillary Clinton’s emails, ObamaCare’s structural failures, the Russia collusion narrative, the surge of illegal immigration under Biden-Harris-Mayorkas policies, the murders of American citizens by illegal immigrants, the trafficking of hundreds of thousands of children, the rise of Islamism and socialism in American institutions, routine urban violence, questionable election irregularities, politically motivated prosecutions, and repeated calls for violence that have contributed to an emerging assassination culture.

These stories surface in conservative outlets, receive brief attention, then fade as the next crisis erupts. The public’s attention is constantly reset.

The kettle is simmering. The frog is growing restless.

In much of Western Europe and the United Kingdom, citizens have watched their cultural foundations erode with little effective resistance. America still has time to choose a different path.

True justice demands accountability. When the guilty face no consequences and the innocent continue to suffer, trust in institutions collapses. A nation cannot endure indefinitely if a large portion of its citizens -- perhaps a third to half -- work actively against its founding ideals.

The solution is not despair, but renewed commitment: to demand transparency, support independent journalism, engage in civil debate, and vote for leaders who uphold the Constitution and the rule of law.

Only by insisting on truth over narrative can we repair what has been damaged and secure a stronger future for the next generation.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/26/2026 - 07:20