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Pentagon Names Alibaba, Baidu, And BYD In Updated Chinese Military Companies List As DoD Contracting Bans Loom

The Department of Defense has filed a major update to its official list of "Chinese military companies" operating in the United States, formally naming or reaffirming high-profile firms including Alibaba, Baidu, BYD, BGI Group, and Autel as companies linked to Beijing's military-civil fusion strategy.

The notice, filed on Monday and scheduled for Federal Register publication on June 10, comes just weeks before new restrictions on Department of Defense contracting with listed entities take effect on June 30. The companies are alleged to have ownership or ties to SASAC (State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission), affiliations with MIIT (Ministry of Industry and Information Technology), PLA connections, support from China's "Little Giant" industrial program, or a presence in military-civil fusion zones.

Section 1260H requires the Pentagon to identify Chinese companies that conduct commercial business while also supporting or being affiliated with the People's Liberation Army or China's defense-industrial base. The list has existed for years, but the consequences are now becoming more significant. Effective June 30, the DoD will be barred from entering into, renewing, or extending contracts directly with listed companies or entities they control. A broader indirect ban - covering goods or services that incorporate products from these firms - follows in June 2027. Additional rules restrict DoD contractors from working with entities that lobby on behalf of listed companies.

In short, the Pentagon is putting major Chinese companies on notice that it views them as potential extensions of China's military and defense ecosystem, even if those companies are better known globally for consumer products, cloud services, electric vehicles, drones, or biotech.

Key Companies Designated

Several globally significant names stand out in the update:

• Alibaba Group Holding Limited: Indirectly affiliated with SASAC and flagged as a military-civil fusion contributor due to its MIIT ties. The company's dominance in e-commerce, cloud computing, and AI raises long-standing dual-use technology concerns.
• Baidu, Inc.: Similarly linked to SASAC and cited for MIIT affiliation, reflecting U.S. concerns about its AI, search, and autonomous systems capabilities.
• BYD Company Limited: Directly and indirectly tied to SASAC and MIIT. The world's largest electric vehicle maker is highlighted for its critical role in batteries and EVs - sectors with clear strategic and potential military applications.
• BGI Group (including BGI Genomics and other subsidiaries): Noted for direct PLA affiliation and MIIT ties, along with government assistance tied to military planning objectives. The genomics firm has previously drawn scrutiny over data security and collection practices.
• Autel entities (Autel Intelligent Technology and Autel Robotics): Designated for "Little Giant" status and MIIT connections, underscoring concerns around commercial drones and robotics with obvious military uses.

The broader list includes many other major players, including SMIC and memory chip firms (CXMT, YMTC), COMAC and AVIC aerospace entities, CATL and EVE Energy batteries, Huawei-related companies, DJI, Hikvision, Tencent, SenseTime, and various shipping and construction conglomerates. Some firms appear with extensive U.S. or international subsidiaries.

A handful of entities were removed from the previous January 2025 list, including certain CNOOC and COSCO subsidiaries.

Broader Context and Stakes

This update marks the latest step in years of escalating U.S. policy toward China's military-civil fusion strategy. Earlier Pentagon assessments and a February 2026 draft notice had already previewed many of these additions before being withdrawn. The move also fits into a wider U.S. effort that includes Entity List expansions, investment restrictions, export controls, and legislative pushes targeting Chinese biotech and technology supply chains.

Geopolitically, the list reflects Washington's view that key commercial sectors - AI, semiconductors, EVs and batteries, biotech/genomics, drones, and cloud infrastructure - cannot be cleanly separated from China's national security apparatus. It arrives amid intensifying competition over critical technologies and broader strategic tensions between Washington and Beijing.

Listed entities can request reconsideration by submitting evidence to a designated Pentagon email address.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 14:00

Trump Admin Provided No Defensive Action For Israel Amid Iranian Missile Salvo

We've been documenting the apparent immense strain in the US-Israel relationship related to Iran policy and strategy. In this latest round of trading major blows, President Trump reportedly not only told Israel to immediately halt its response and to not retaliate, but gave no order for US forces to protect Israel, for example by manning and operating crucial anti-air defenses.

While Iranian ballistic missiles were inbound, "The US military didn't take part in the Israeli attacks against Iran, the first since the ceasefire, and the Trump admin didn't order any US defensive action to shield Israel from incoming Iranian missiles, per a US official" - according to CBS White House correspondent Jennifer Jacobs.

If accurate, this marks a major change in US priorities and the Pentagon's posture in the region. Going back to last year's 11-day June war, as well as from the start of Operation Epic Fury, Washington has previously provided consistent cover and protection for Israel, especially on the anti-air defense front.

Source: picture alliance/CFOTO

The notable change and shift is also being reported by NBC, which writes Monday morning, "The U.S. military did not conduct any strikes against Iran with Israel, according to a U.S. official."

"The U.S. did not shoot down or intercept any incoming Iranian missiles or projectiles during this recent volley between Israel and Iran," the report continues. "And the current U.S. assessment is that Iran was not targeting any U.S. personnel, assets, or locations during the strikes directed at Israel, the official said."

US Central Command (CENTCOM) has however, affirmed it has been in contact with senior Israeli military officials, presumably to receive updates and briefings on the Iranian attacks of the prior 24 hours, as well as related to the latest on Israeli offensive actions.

While Washington is creating distance between itself and this renewed round of fighting, Iranian officials aren't buying the narrative.

In a fresh message from Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei, Tehran says that "Without a doubt ... the actions of the Zionist regime in the region cannot be separated from U.S. policies." Tehran is rejecting the US insistence that it is not behind Israel's actions: "No one believes that the Zionist regime would carry out any action without prior coordination and cooperation with the United States," Baqaei added.

Meanwhile, President Trump declared in a Financial Times interview published on Sunday - "I call the shots" regarding actions against Iran, and not Israel.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu "won't have any choice" but to accept an impending agreement between the US and Iran, Trump stated.

Mark Levin rages over lack of US defense for Israel:

Very unfortunate.

Nothing to be proud of but noted by all. https://t.co/DJYONxd9DC

— Mark R. Levin (@marklevinshow) June 8, 2026

At the same time, a US official told Axios on Sunday that Trump was "pretty adamant that we are close to a deal with Iran," urging space to give diplomacy a chance.

Though Israel ultimately went ahead with a strike on Iranian territory following Sunday's missile barrage, the situation is showing signs of a temporary pause on Monday. Iran's military announced it had halted its operations, claiming it had successfully sent its intended message, even as Trump continued to publicly insist that both nations are actively looking to agree on an "immediate CEASEFIRE" (on Truth Social).

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 13:40

India Rescues 24 Crewmembers From Stricken Tanker Off Oman After US Airstrike

Update(1315ET): US Navy forces have announced a new Monday direction action operation in the Gulf of Oman. The US has cited that the vessel refused to respond to orders related to the blockade of Iranian naval ports.

The ship attempted to sail to an Iranian port, in violation of the ongoing blockade. A CENTCOM statement indicated that the military "disabled Palau-flagged M/T Marivex as it transited international waters in the Gulf of Oman toward Iran."

"An F/A-18 Super Hornet from USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) fired a precision munition into the ship's engineering and steering spaces after the crew failed to comply with directions from U.S. forces," the statement continued. "Marivex is no longer sailing to Iran," it said. The Pentagon has also reviewed the following since initiating the blockade on April 13.

• CENTCOM forces have disabled seven non-compliant vessels
• it has redirected 134 ships that complied
• allowed 42 vessels supporting humanitarian aid to pass

This is the same vessel which took on US military fire:

Indian navy helicopters airlifted 24 sailors off a tanker on fire off the coast of Oman on Monday, New Delhi officials said, without saying what caused the blaze.

India’s Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways said a fire was reported at around 1:30 p.m. (0800 GMT) on the MT Marivex, a Palau-flagged tanker.

“There has been a fire reported on a vessel, MT Marivex, on which there were 24 Indian seafarers... all Indian seafarers are safe,” ministry director Opesh Kumar Sharma told reporters.

And more from the same report:

Images posted on social media by the Forward Seamen’s Union of India showed crew members being winched from the vessel by helicopter as thick black smoke billowed from its bridge and accommodation cabins.

The tanker’s position was shown by ship-tracking service MarineTraffic as being off the coast of Oman, south of the capital Muscat.

*  *  *

Brent crude futures jumped as much as 5% to $97.83 a barrel, while WTI traded around $95 a barrel, as renewed Iran-Israel fighting threatened to unravel a fragile US-Iran ceasefire and further disrupt energy flows.

On the maritime chokepoint front, Iran-backed Houthis declared a full ban on Israeli vessels in the southern Red Sea, warning that any Israeli ship (or linked ship) will be seen as a military target.

"First: We declare a complete and total ban on maritime navigation for the Israeli enemy in the Red Sea, and we consider all enemy movements to be military targets for our Armed Forces from the moment this statement is issued," the terror group said Monday in a statement.

The statement continued, "Second: We affirm that we will meet escalation with escalation, and that our military operations will escalate in line with events, the battle, and in conjunction with the axis of Jihad and Resistance."

"Third: We affirm the right of our people and the peoples of our free nation to confront American-Israeli aggression, and that we will not stand idly by in the face of the unjust siege imposed on our people and the peoples of the axis of Jihad and Resistance in Palestine, Gaza, Iran, Lebanon, and Iraq. All enemy attempts will fail, God willing, and our operations will continue as long as the aggression and siege against us and the axis of Jihad and Resistance continue," the statement concluded.

The Houthis have announced a "complete blockade" of the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait against all vessels linked to Israel.

They also warned that any further escalation will be met with an even stronger response. pic.twitter.com/fu6UFPtD1G

— Egypt's Intel Observer (@EGYOSINT) June 8, 2026

The announcement is similar to the Houthis' late-2023 campaign, when rebel forces attacked ships linked to Israel or bound for Israeli ports in or around the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. They framed the attacks as retaliation for the Gaza war.

Potential disruption of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait in the southern Red Sea will only add to the headaches for global maritime trade, as it is a critical sea route for Asia-to-Europe commerce and Gulf energy exports.

At its narrowest point, the strait is about 18 miles wide, making commercial vessels extraordinarily vulnerable to suicide drones, missiles, mines, and small boats.

The previous disruption of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait led to ships rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, adding time, fuel, insurance costs, and higher shipping costs. The IMF has previously said that the Red Sea attacks halved Suez Canal trade in early 2024, while shipping traffic via the Cape of Good Hope surged.

Related:

• Alarming Supply-Chain Stress Sends Transport Cost Soaring, Fueling Inflation Fears

• UBS Reactivates Supply-Chain Stress Watch After Detecting Alarmingly Rapid Deterioration

Readers were brefied in mid-April on the threat other critical straits could be disrupted. Read the note here. 

The big risk here is a simultaneous disruption of both maritime chokepoints. Bab-el-Mandeb would hit the world's trade artery, while Hormuz has already disrupted the world's energy artery. Combined, the clogging of both maritime chokepoints would be viewed as a major escalation, likely raising the risk of additional supply chain stress, higher freight and insurance costs, and another inflationary wave.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 13:15

Trump Weighs Plan To Buy Chagos Islands, Home To Diego Garcia Military Base

The White House is actively considering a plan to purchase the Chagos Islands, potentially undermining the UK's agreement to transfer sovereignty of the strategically vital territory to Mauritius, according to reports.

An undated photograph shows an aerial view of Diego Garcia. U.S. Navy via AP

US officials have prepared proposals to bypass Britain and negotiate directly for control of Diego Garcia, the key Indian Ocean atoll that hosts a major joint US-UK military base. The idea forms part of broader options being developed by the Trump administration as alternatives to Prime Minister Keir Starmer's plan to cede the islands to Mauritius, which has close ties to China and Iran.

Strategic Importance

Diego Garcia's location makes it critical for long-range operations. It enables round-the-clock bomber missions, including potential strikes on Iran using B-2 Spirit stealth bombers, and places key areas within striking range. Amid ongoing conflicts involving Iran and China's expanding naval presence, US and UK officials stress the need to maintain a robust chain of global military bases.

Senior Trump administration officials worry that transferring control to Mauritius could expose the base to espionage or interference. One former adviser to UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy, Ben Judah, told the Telegraph that the base has "super secret, super sensitive facilities" that are vital to British and allied capabilities, noting they would be difficult to replicate elsewhere.

Background on the UK-Mauritius Deal

The UK had agreed to hand sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius while securing a long-term lease for the military base, reportedly involving around £35 billion ($46.7 billion) over 99 years. However, the deal requires US consent due to longstanding agreements governing the base, and Britain has since placed it on hold.

President Trump initially appeared open to the arrangement but later strongly opposed it, particularly after the UK reportedly declined to allow strikes on Iran from Diego Garcia in the early stages of the Iran war. He publicly denounced the deal as "great stupidity" and criticized Starmer for weakening the special relationship, calling him "no Winston Churchill."

US Position and Ongoing Talks

A US official told Reuters:

"President Trump has been consistent in his position that the United Kingdom should not give away the British Indian Ocean Territory, which includes our joint U.S.-UK military facility on the Diego Garcia atoll. Diego Garcia's strategic location in the Indian Ocean makes it a vital and indispensable military installation of significant importance to the national security of the United States."

The US continues regular discussions with Britain to preserve the base's viability.

Purchasing the islands outright would likely involve waiting for the UK-Mauritius sovereignty transfer before negotiating with Mauritius. No specific price has been discussed, according to sources.

In February, Trump said that he had retained the right to "militarily secure" the Diego Garcia air base after calling the UK's decision an "act of total weakness."

UK Response

A UK government spokesperson defended the original agreement, stating it was necessary to protect long-term interests and prevent adversaries from gaining a foothold:

"Diego Garcia is a key strategic military asset for both the UK and the US, which has protected our shared security for nearly 60 years. Maintaining long-term operational control and security of Diego Garcia is the entire basis for the UK-Mauritius agreement."

In May, UK minister Hamish Falconer stated there was "no scenario" in which Washington could purchase the islands, reaffirming commitment to the deal. Downing Street has not commented on the latest US proposals.

People protest outside the High Court where Chagossian campaigners are challenging the British government's deal to transfer sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, in London, Britain, October 28, 2025. Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 13:00

Flying Car Industry Turns To Solid-State Batteries For Commercial Takeoff

Authored by Bojan Stojkovski via Interesting Engineering,

Solid-state battery advances could accelerate flying car adoption. GAC

As the flying car industry moves from prototype development toward commercial deployment, attention is increasingly shifting to the technologies needed to support safe and scalable operations.

Su Qingpeng, founder and CEO of GAC Govy, a low-altitude mobility company incubated by GAC, recently described solid-state batteries as the "essential path" for the future of flying cars, highlighting their potential to deliver the energy density and safety required for aerial mobility.

At the same time, investor expectations are evolving. Rather than focusing primarily on technical specifications and performance claims, capital markets are placing greater emphasis on practical indicators of commercial success, including vehicle deliveries, profitability, production readiness, and the timeline for obtaining airworthiness certification.

Flying Cars Follow a Path Similar to Early EVs

Su compared the current stage of the flying car industry to the position electric vehicles occupied roughly a decade ago, when the market was still transitioning from early adoption to large-scale growth. He argued that aviation mobility could advance even more rapidly than the EV sector once adoption reaches a critical threshold.

According to his outlook, the industry is expected to establish a sustainable commercial ecosystem by 2030, supported by technological progress, regulatory approvals, and the gradual rollout of low-altitude transportation services, CarNewsChina reported.

After entering the market with its first production model, GAC Govy has been advancing toward regulatory approval and commercial deployment. Its flagship aircraft, the Govy AirCab, opened for pre-orders in 2025 and officially entered production in May 2026.

The Chinese company aims to complete airworthiness testing and secure Type Certification (TC) by the end of 2026, while Production Certification (PC) is targeted for the first half of 2027, paving the way for larger-scale manufacturing and commercial operations.

Safer, Longer-Range Flying Cars Depend on Solid-State Batteries

In the long run, battery technology is emerging as one of the most important factors shaping the future of aerial mobility. Su noted that solid-state batteries will play a central role in enabling the next generation of flying cars by delivering both the energy density required for longer flight ranges and the safety standards needed for commercial operations.

Furthermore, the business case for solid-state batteries is markedly different in aviation than in the automotive sector. Whereas carmakers are pursuing the technology largely to lower costs and improve competitiveness in high-volume markets, flying car manufacturers can absorb significantly higher battery costs due to the economics of aircraft production. Su noted that conventional aircraft are far more expensive to build than automobiles, giving eVTOL developers greater flexibility to adopt advanced battery technologies.

As a result, solid-state batteries can already be deployed in limited production runs for aerial vehicles. Over time, broader adoption across the automotive industry is expected to drive down battery costs, making flying cars more economical to operate and opening the door to wider commercial use.

However, Su also warned that flying car production is likely to scale more slowly than traditional automobiles. Extensive design iterations, airworthiness certification, and manufacturing validation requirements make the path to mass production longer and more complex, resulting in a gradual ramp-up in deliveries.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 12:40

US Bankruptcy Filings Surge 7% YoY In May

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

Total U.S. bankruptcy filings, which include filings made by both businesses and individuals, rose by 7 percent in May on a year-to-year basis.

A hiring sign at the Fashion Centre at Pentagon City shopping mall in Arlington, Va., on Jan 3, 2024. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

Individual bankruptcy filings rose by 8 percent during the one-year period. While overall commercial filings were down marginally by 0.1 percent, bankruptcy filings made by small businesses jumped 36 percent, according to a June 5 statement from the American Bankruptcy Institute (ABI).

"The May data reflects a continued but measured uptick in bankruptcy activity, particularly among small businesses," said Michael Hunter, vice president of Epiq AACER, the company that provided the bankruptcy data.

"The trend highlights the cumulative impact of elevated interest rates, persistent inflation, and higher operating costs. As access to affordable credit remains constrained, more businesses and consumers are turning to restructuring tools to stabilize and reset financially."

The 12-month inflation rate has consistently remained above the 2 percent level over the past few years. In recent months, the rate has shot up since the Iran conflict after remaining subdued for some time.

In February, the inflation rate was 2.4 percent, which surged to 3.3 percent in March and 3.8 percent in April, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Higher prices pose a challenge to business activities and consumer spending.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate has remained elevated at 3.5 to 3.75 percent in recent months, with the central bank refusing to cut rates further. This contributes to keeping loan rates high, making credit expensive for businesses and individuals.

In May, commercial chapter 11 filings fell 7 percent from last year, ABI said in its latest statement. A Chapter 11 bankruptcy seeks to reorganize a company's debts, aiming to keep the business operational and, eventually, turn it solvent. This is the most common type of bankruptcy filing made by businesses.

The May decline in such filings bucks the persistent increase in such cases since the beginning of the year. In April, Chapter 11 filings rose 42 percent from a year ago. And during the first quarter of 2026, these filings rose 37 percent year over year.

Among companies that filed for bankruptcy last month is specialty material solutions provider Trinseo PLC. On May 26, the company announced it would commence Chapter 11 filings as part of a restructuring plan. The company said it expects the plan to cut down its debt by roughly $2 billion.

Earlier on May 6, pet food ingredient company Integrated Proteins, LLC, filed a voluntary petition for bankruptcy, citing estimated assets of $50 million to $100 million and liabilities of $100 million to $500 million.

US Business Situation

In a May 14 report, S&P Global warned that the trajectory of bankruptcy filings could increase over the coming months, citing "inflationary pressures, elevated fuel prices and other macroeconomic uncertainties, largely related to the Middle East war."

Andrew Glenn, managing partner at Glenn Agre Bergman & Fuentes, said the existing macroeconomic factors have "still not resulted in the next wave of big filings." The current period is the "calm before the storm" ahead of a potential barrage of commercial bankruptcy filings.

Meanwhile, sentiment among small business owners remains positive, with optimism in this group rising marginally in April, the National Federation of Independent Business said in a May 12 statement.

Financial services company ShareBuilder 401k said in a May 11 statement that, while owners are weighed down by inflation and labor shortages, they are adopting new strategies to grow their businesses.

A survey from the ShareBuilder 401k showed that 88 percent of owners took "decisive action" to counter inflation and labor challenges over the past year.

"Half of all small businesses (50 percent) have increased prices to protect margins, while others have turned to lower-cost vendors (23 percent)," the company said.

According to a June 3 report from S&P Global, four out of seven U.S. sectors reported an upturn in their business activity in May - healthcare, consumer goods, basic materials, and industrials. Financials, tech, and consumer services sectors registered declines.

On the employment front, the U.S. economy added 172,000 jobs in May, exceeding economists' expectations. The unemployment rate remains steady at 4.3 percent. However, the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits hit a four-month high for the week ending May 30.

Meanwhile, the Dow Jones, which opened at around 49,832 on May 1, closed at about 51,032 on May 29, a jump of roughly 1,200 points.

The Trump administration has taken actions to help businesses acquire credit.

In March, the Small Business Administration (SBA) announced that small manufacturers will be eligible to secure loans with a 90 percent federal guarantee. This is expected to help such businesses get access to "long-term, affordable financing."

Last month, SBA announced that it will allow eligible borrowers to get up to $10 million in combined financing from 7(a) and 504 loan programs for businesses, double the earlier limit of $5 million.

"By decoupling 7(a) loan balances from the 504 program, the SBA is giving capital-intensive small businesses - including those in construction, logistics, energy, food production, and related industries - greater flexibility to pair long-term financing for real estate and equipment with working capital to support operations and expansion," the agency said.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 12:00

Wix Tumbles After Cutting 20% Of Workforce, Warns Of Deeper Growth Slowdown

Website builder Wix announced an "organizational realignment" on Monday that will cut roughly 20% of its workforce, as the company warned of a sharper-than-expected slowdown in its Partners business.

The restructuring is designed to streamline operations, discontinue lower-priority initiatives, and reallocate resources toward Wix's core growth areas.

"The organizational realignment to streamline operations and reallocate resources to support the Company's top strategic priorities. This includes the scaling down and/or discontinuation of certain activities, initiatives, products, and subsidiaries," Wix wrote in a Form 6k filing earlier this morning.

As of 1Q26, Wix had 5,277 employees, so a 20% cut would represent about 1,055 layoffs.

Wix is a SaaS website builder that competes with platforms such as Shopify, Squarespace, GoDaddy, and WordPress-related services. There was no mention of whether AI-related efficiencies contributed to the white-collar layoffs.

The 6k filing noted that it expects 2026 free cash flow, excluding acquisition and restructuring costs, of about $420 million, roughly $20 million above its prior plan. This restructuring is a move to support profitability.

"While Wix Harmony and Base44 continue to perform as we expected when we issued guidance as part of the first quarter 2026 earnings release, the Company expects an approximately $50 million reduction in bookings and an approximately $25 million reduction in revenue in FY 2026 as a result of our organizational realignment as well as a more pronounced slowdown, beyond our previous expectations, in the growth of our Partners business during the second half of May and early June," the filing stated.

The company lowered its 2026 bookings growth outlook to the low-teens range from mid-teens, while revenue growth is now expected in the low- to mid-teens range, also down from mid-teens.

Cost savings from the labor restructuring are expected to offset the revenue hit. Wix sees about $70 million in incremental non-GAAP cost-of-revenue and operating-expense savings this year, with a full-year run-rate savings target of about $150 million, driven mainly by lower payroll and overhead.

Wix expects $30 million to $35 million in pre-tax restructuring charges, mostly related to cash severance and benefits, with most charges booked in the second quarter and cash payments made later this year.

Shares of Wix tumbled 10% in premarket trading. The stock is trading near 2017 lows.

Most Wall Street analysts are bullish on the stock. There are 12 "Buy" ratings, 8 "Neutral" ratings, and 1 "Sell."

The average 12-month price target for the stock is $84 per share.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 11:45

Inflation Expectations Dip, Driven By Lower Gas Prices, While Labor Market Prospects Worsen: NY Fed Survey

Ahead of Wednesday's CPI report which is expected to show a substantial rise in consumer prices, moments ago we got an early look into how consumers view inflation after the NY Fed's latest monthly survey of consumer expectations reported that inflation expectations at the one-year horizon dipped to 3.46% in May from 3.64% in April, easing from the highest print since September 2023. Inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.1% for the three-year-ahead horizon and also unchanged at 3.0% at the five-year-ahead horizon in May.

Median inflation uncertainty, or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes, increased at the one-year and three-year-ahead horizons and decreased at the five-year-ahead horizon. 

The drop in year-ahead expectations took place as 1-year gas inflation expectations extended its recent decline, sliding to 4.96% in May from 5.11% in April and from 9.42% in March, which had been the highest reading since March 2022.

Among other prices, home price growth expectations increased to highest since July 2022.

Food and rent price outlooks also increased while medical care and college eased (good luck).

Turning to the labor market, sentiment continued to deteriorate with job-loss fears rising and probability of quitting at a three-year high despite unemployment rate seen edging lower and expected earnings growth steady.

Respondents said the mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost decreased by 2.3% to 43.7%, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 46.8% and marking the lowest reading since December 2025.

The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months increased by 0.5% to 15.1%, above the series’ 12-month trailing average of 14.4%. Despite that, the expected quit rate - the probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next year, usually a sign of confidence in the labor market - rose in May to the highest since February of 2023. The increase was broad-based across age, education and income groups, the report said. 

The report followed an unexpectedly strong employment report for May with job gains beating expectations. For Fed officials, the report put to rest for now concerns that the US labor market remained fragile and stoked worries over inflation. Policymakers’ preferred measure of inflation hit 3.8% in April, amid a spike in energy prices.

The New York Fed survey also reinforced other reports showing consumer sentiment is at record lows: the share of households who said their financial situation was worse than last year reached its highest level since January of 2023. More consumers also expected a deterioration in their finances in the year ahead.

Household finances outlook fell to lowest since Oct. 2022, with spending growth expected to moderate amid worsening credit access and delinquencies

The perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months rose by 1.2% points to 12.6%, staying below its 12-month trailing average of 12.9%. This increase was mostly driven by those with at most a high school degree and with annual household incomes below $100,000. 

Here are some more details from the report:

Inflation

• Median home price growth expectations increased by 0.5% point to 3.5%. This is the highest reading since July 2022. The increase was most pronounced for the West and Midwest Census regions. 
• Median year-ahead gas price growth expectations dropped by 0.1% point to 5.0%. Other commodity price change expectations increased by 0.6 percentage point for food to 5.8% and by 1.4 percentage points for rent to 7.4%, while they decreased by 0.7 percentage point for the cost of medical care to 8.9% and by 0.8 percentage point for the cost of a college education to 8.0%. 

Labor Market

• Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations remained stable at 7% in May, remaining slightly above their 12-month trailing average of 2.6%. 
• Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—decreased by 0.4 percentage point to 43.2%, remaining above their 12-month trailing average of 41.1%. 
• The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months increased by 0.5 percentage point to 15.1%, above the series’ 12-month trailing average of 14.4%. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily, or the expected quit rate, in the next 12 months increased by 2.6 percentage points to 20.8%, its highest level since February 2023. The increase was broad-based across age, education, and income groups. 
• The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost decreased by 2.3 percentage points to 43.7%, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 46.8% and marking the lowest reading since December 2025. 

Household Finance

• The median expected growth in household income remained unchanged at 2.8% in May 2026. 
• Median one-year-ahead nominal household spending growth expectations decreased by 0.4 percentage point to 5.0%, standing slightly above their trailing 12-month average of 4.9%. The decline was driven by respondents above age 60 and those with at most a high school degree and annual household incomes less than $50,000. 
• Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago remained largely unchanged, with a greater share of households reporting that credit availability was equally easy or difficult. Expectations for future credit availability deteriorated, with a lower share of respondents expecting it will be easier to obtain credit in the year ahead. 
• The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months rose by 1.2 percentage points to 12.6%, staying below its 12-month trailing average of 12.9%. This increase was mostly driven by those with at most a high school degree and with annual household incomes below $100,000. 
• The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes at current income level decreased by 0.3 percentage point to 3.1%. 
• Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 9.9%. 
• The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on savings accounts will be higher in 12 months decreased by 2.1 percentage points to 24.6%. 
• Perceptions about households’ current financial situation compared to a year ago deteriorated, with a larger share of households reporting a worse financial situation, marking the highest reading since January 2023, and a slightly smaller share of households reporting a better financial situation. Year-ahead expectations about households’ financial situation also deteriorated, with an increase in the net share of households expecting a worse financial situation. The net share of households expecting a better versus worse financial situation in one year is at its lowest level since October 2022. 
• The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 0.4 percentage points to 38.0%. 

Source: NY Fed

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 11:33

We Are Being Warned That A "Godzilla El Niño" Could Absolutely Devastate Global Food Production

Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

The waters of the Pacific Ocean are getting extremely warm, and that could provide fuel for an immensely destructive climate event that is unlike anything we have ever seen before. Even the United Nations has issued an ominous warning about the El Niño event that is in the long-term forecast, because it will have a dramatic impact on every man, woman, and child on the entire planet.

We are being told that there is more than an 80 percent chance that El Niño conditions will arrive by the end of next month due to rapidly warming equatorial waters in the Pacific. Meanwhile, an unprecedented "9,000-mile marine heatwave" has developed in the North Pacific. Many experts are concerned that the confluence of those two factors could produce a "Godzilla El Niño"...

The chance of an El Niño event emerging by July is now over 80 percent, which will likely make 2026 one of the hottest years on record. At the same time, an exceptionally large 9,000-mile marine heatwave has been forming in the North Pacific since the end of 2025. These extreme warming events are now evolving together across the Pacific. Scientists are increasingly concerned that the warm water will fuel a "super" or "Godzilla" El Niño, potentially prolonging marine heatwaves, disrupting fisheries and ecosystems, and intensifying global climate impacts well into 2027.

The "9,000-mile marine heatwave" in the North Pacific is absolutely astounding climate scientists.

At the same time, the warming in the equatorial waters where El Niño events normally develop is at a level that we haven't seen since at least 1877...

The temperature of the ocean in the equatorial waters where these El Niños form was predicted to be 3 degrees Celsius above average. Experts are saying that this is a level of heat in the Pacific Ocean that hasn't been recorded since 1877.

I have written about the "Super El Niño" that started in 1877 before.

That "Super El Niño" was one of the primary reasons why 50 million people starved during the Great Famine that stretched from 1876 to 1878...

This El Niño, they say, could rival the intense event of the late 19th century that triggered "the Great Famine" on a global scale, killing millions of people. And its scythe sliced through southern Africa.

"The 1876-78 Great Famine impacted multiple regions across the globe, including parts of Asia, Nordeste [Northeast] Brazil, and northern and southern Africa, with total human fatalities exceeding 50 million people, arguably the worst environmental disaster to befall humanity," a team of scientists said a decade ago in a ground-breaking paper presented at a meeting of the American Geophysical Union.

3 percent of the entire population of the world starved to death during those years.

Today, 3 percent of the entire population of the world would be 240,000,000 people.

In 1982 and 1983, we experienced the most severe "Super El Niño" of the 20th century...

In 1982-83, the most intense El Niño of the 20th century caused extreme weather events throughout the world, including floods in the American Pacific and in the southern United States, and droughts in north-eastern Brazil and Indonesia. It also caused a very mild winter in the mid-latitudes of Europe, Asia and North America.

That "Super El Niño" sparked a horrific famine in eastern Africa that wiped out a very large proportion of the population...

A widespread famine affected Ethiopia from 1983 to 1985. The worst famine to hit the country in a century, it affected 7.75 million people out of Ethiopia's 38-40 million and left approximately 300,000 to 1.2 million dead. 2.5 million people were internally displaced whereas 400,000 refugees left Ethiopia. Almost 200,000 children were orphaned.

Now we are being warned that the most powerful "Super El Niño" of all time could potentially be ahead of us.

We could see insanely hot temperatures all over the world this summer, and we are being told that we are likely to see severe drought conditions "in southern Africa, Australia, India, the Indochina Peninsula and Oceania"...

Easterly trade winds across the equator, meanwhile, are replaced by bursts of westerly surface winds. Those pile warm waters against the western shores of South America. That suppresses cool ocean upwelling from below, which is needed to bring nutrient-rich waters closer to the surface. That starves baitfish and means poor fish harvests for dependent countries in Central America and the Pacific coast of South America.

Drought, meanwhile, is likely in southern Africa, Australia, India, the Indochina Peninsula and Oceania. Southeast Asia, meanwhile, could see above-average rainfall and more flooding.

Here in the United States, we could see a lot less rain than normal in the Midwest, and temperatures in the heartland could be 3 to 6 degrees above normal.

In other words, it would be horrible growing weather.

Our farmers are already facing much higher diesel prices, much higher fertilizer prices, and a multi-year drought that never seems to end. Now a "Godzilla El Niño" could be on the way, and the World Meteorological Organization is telling us to brace for the worst...

The World Meteorological Organization is warning that this summer's El Nino event could be the worst yet. Compounded by fertiliser shortages, inflation and rising oil prices, these shocks threaten to push an already fragile food industry to the brink, and the impact will land squarely in consumers' shopping baskets.

Coming into this year, the number of people around the world experiencing acute food insecurity was already at the highest level ever recorded.

And now a "Godzilla El Niño" could absolutely devastate food production in many of the areas around the world that grow the four crops that account for 60 percent of all global calories...

Global food security relies heavily on a highly concentrated supply chain. Just four crops, wheat, rice, maize and soybeans, account for over 60% of global calories. While localised regional shortages are typically balanced by other markets, a global El Nino triggers teleconnections: simultaneous weather anomalies across different continents that cause correlated crop failures. And this systemic drop in supply leads to direct price increases at supermarket tills.

In this country, where do we grow most of our wheat, rice, corn, and soybeans?

Everyone knows that it is in the heartland, and the heartland of this country is about to get hit by a climate sledgehammer.

Of course, we all still have to eat, and so demand for food is not going to go down.

Since there won't be as much food produced, that means that prices are likely to spike...

Because demand for basic staples is inelastic - consumers must eat regardless of cost - even small supply deficits cause disproportionate price surges. Scenarios for this El Nino indicate price shocks of 10% to 50% across core commodities, with highly exposed crops, including rice, palm oil, sugarcane and coffee, potentially experiencing surges of 50% to 100%, or more.

In the past, price shocks struck one commodity at a time. A simultaneous, cross-category surge means consumers will be hit harder and broader than ever before.

If you think that food prices at your local supermarket are high now, just wait until you see what they are like in the future.

What will struggling American families do if basic staples that they purchase on a regular basis suddenly go up by 50 percent or more?

Of course, conditions will be much worse in many impoverished nations around the globe.

In some cases, there simply won't be nearly enough food to feed everyone.

We really are facing a nightmare scenario, and the vast majority of the global population is completely and utterly unprepared for it.

Michael Snyder’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 11:25

Saylor's Strategy Buys The Dip As Bitcoin Nears Mining Cost Floor

A week after SELLING 32 Bitcoin - and (in part) triggering a waterfall decline in crypto - Bitcoin treasury company Strategy just BOUGHT an additional 1,550 BTC for approximately $101.3 million at an average price of $65,332 per bitcoin between June 1 and June 7, according to an 8-K filing with the SEC on Monday.

Strategy now holds a total of 845,256 BTC - worth around $53.5 billion - bought at an average price of $75,680 per bitcoin for a total cost of around $64 billion, including fees and expenses, according to the company's co-founder and executive chairman, Michael Saylor.

This means Saylor's horde represents 4% of bitcoin's 21 million supply cap.

Was Saylor's 'sale' last week designed to lower the price for this big purchase?

Bitcoin had been trading for around $73,700 before the sale announcement.

However, the news, despite increasingly being flagged by the company as a possibility in recent weeks, saw the market subsequently drop around 20% to a low of roughly $59,300 on Friday, before recovering back above the $63,000 level over the weekend.

Last week, JPMorgan analysts said Strategy's recent decision to sell 32 BTC "spooked" markets even if the sale was "symbolic and voluntary," intended to demonstrate the company's commitment and flexibility to preferred stockholders. 

As TheBlock.co reports, Saylor posted another Strategy bitcoin acquisition tracker chart on Sunday with the caption "A good time to add more dots," a commonly-understood signal that the largest corporate bitcoin holder may disclose fresh bitcoin purchases this week.

The framing this time went further than the usual nod toward another buy, in that it explicitly positioned current price levels as attractive, with bitcoin trading in the low $60,000 range.

Following bitcoin's worst week in two years, Strategy(MSTR) Executive Chairman Michael Saylor published a framework on X, arguing that the Bitcoin community is evolving into four distinct ideological camps.

As CoinDesk reports, rather than viewing these groups as competitors, he presents them as complementary forces that will collectively shape bitcoin’s future.

• The first group, Bitcoin Maximalists, sees Bitcoin as the ultimate monetary breakthrough. They believe bitcoin has already solved the problem of digital scarcity and offers superior property rights, protection from inflation, and economic empowerment. Their focus is conviction: bitcoin is not one crypto asset among many, but the dominant digital monetary network.

• The second group, Bitcoin Capitalists, views Bitcoin as a form of digital capital that should be integrated into the global economy. They support corporate treasury adoption, institutional custody, bitcoin-backed securities, lending markets, and broader financial infrastructure. Their goal is to expand bitcoin's reach by embedding it into existing economic systems rather than replacing them.

• The third group, Bitcoin Technologists, focuses on improving the protocol. They argue that Bitcoin must continue to evolve to address challenges in scalability, privacy, usability, security, and future threats such as quantum computing. While they support innovation, Saylor notes that changes to bitcoin's base layer must be approached cautiously to avoid unintended consequences.

• The fourth group, Bitcoin Fundamentalists, prioritize protecting bitcoin's original principles: decentralization, self-custody, immutability, censorship resistance, and individual sovereignty. They are wary of excessive institutional influence, financialization, and protocol changes that could compromise Bitcoin's core characteristics.

Saylor's central argument is that Bitcoin needs all four perspectives. Maximalists provide conviction, Capitalists drive adoption, Technologists ensure long-term resilience, and Fundamentalists safeguard the protocol's integrity.

Saylor argues that Bitcoin's most successful path lies in a balance among these four forces.

The piece was published as observers debated whether Strategy's June 1 disclosure had itself contributed to the latest leg lower.

That bitcoin is in a bear market is not in dispute, but as BitcoinMagazine.com reports, Jim Ferraioli, Director of Digital Currencies Research and Strategy at Charles Schwab, argued last week on Bloomberg that this selloff has a measurable cost floor, and that floor is built not from sentiment or chart patterns, but from the physics of energy consumption.

The numbers frame the drawdown in context. Bitcoin peaked at $126,000 in the fall before collapsing to roughly $60,000 in February — a 50% correction that, while brutal for recent buyers, falls far short of the 75%-plus implosions that defined prior Bitcoin bear markets.

Ferraioli’s core analytical framework centers on one question: what does it cost to manufacture Bitcoin? The answer creates a natural gravitational floor that has held across multiple cycles. 

For the most efficient miners — those operating at scale with next-generation ASIC hardware and access to the cheapest wholesale energy — the cost to produce one Bitcoin sits at approximately $60,000, Ferraioli said.

That figure is not arbitrary. It represents the all-in expense of powering a facility at roughly $0.07 per kilowatt-hour with the most advanced semiconductor fleets available.

The less efficient miners — those with older ASIC hardware, higher energy costs, and thinner operational margins — carry a production cost of approximately $95,000 per BTC, according to Glassnode data cited in Schwab’s May 2026 research report. That gap between $60,000 and $95,000 defines Bitcoin’s current valuation range. 

Bitcoin’s energy floor: Why $60,000 may mark the bottom

Ferraioli argues that in deep bear markets, the cost of production for the best miners has historically served as the bottom. February’s low near $60,000 aligns almost precisely with that level, as well as BTC’s 200-week moving average.

The BTC selling pressure is not random. It is demographically specific. The investors driving forced liquidations are those who acquired Bitcoin during the past 18 months — buyers who rode the asset from sub-$80,000 up to $126,000 and then watched gains evaporate in full. 

Schwab tracks two cost-basis metrics to quantify this pressure: the average acquisition cost for U.S. spot ETF and ETP holders, which stands near $83,000, and the active investor cost basis — excluding coins rewarded to miners — which sits near $78,000. 

Both figures sit well above current spot prices, putting the majority of recent entrants into unrealized loss positions and reinforcing $83,000 as a ceiling of overhead supply rather than a floor of support.

Glassnode’s on-chain data corroborates this dynamic. Bitcoin’s latest attempted rally stalled at the aggregate ETF cost basis near $83,000, with total realized losses spiking to $1.35 billion per day and long-term holders capitulating from cycle-top positions. Hedge funds represent roughly 30% of spot ETP ownership but are operating market-neutral, executing basis trades rather than taking directional views — meaning they provide no natural bid when prices fall.

Here is where Ferraioli’s analysis turns constructive. Every major publicly traded Bitcoin miner has announced a pivot toward high-performance computing (HPC) for AI inference workloads. The economics on their face appear to favor abandoning mining: inference generates higher net revenue per megawatt-hour than Bitcoin mining during peak demand windows. 

But demand for AI inference is not uniform across 24 hours. Models run hard during business hours and sit idle overnight and on weekends.

That creates a structural opportunity that does not displace BTC mining — it layers on top of it. Schwab’s analysis models Bitcoin as the optimal baseload monetization of power during off-peak hours, with inference overlaid during peak business-hour demand. 

A data center operating this hybrid model maximizes utilization across the full 24-hour cycle rather than leaving capacity dark when inference demand falls away. For miners, this translates to more stable revenue, reduced forced BTC sales to cover operating costs, and lower structural risk across bear market cycles.

Bitcoin is backed by energy 

The underlying thesis is one of energy economics. Bitcoin has no earnings, no free cash flow, and no CEO issuing guidance. Its value, in Ferraioli’s framework, derives from the energy cost required to produce it — a cost that is transparent, verifiable, and historically durable. 

In commodity markets, price cannot sustainably trade below cost of production. Producers shut down, supply contracts, and equilibrium resets higher. 

Bitcoin follows this same logic: when spot prices fall toward $60,000, the least efficient miners shut down operations, the network’s hash rate adjusts through Bitcoin’s difficulty mechanism, and the cost to produce each new coin falls.

As of May 2026, the average mining cost across all Bitcoin miners sits near $85,604, with the Bitcoin price trading in the mid-$60,000s — meaning the network as a whole is operating at a loss, a configuration that has historically preceded recoveries, not further collapse.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 11:05

Equity Supply Surge: What Historically Comes Next

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

This past week, the market hit an all-time high. At the same time, Alphabet (GOOG) told investors it would raise $80 billion by selling stock to fund its AI buildout, and the shares fell about 4% on the news. Within days, SpaceX is reportedly set to price one of the largest IPOs ever attempted. If you want a live picture of an equity supply surge meeting a market priced for perfection, you’re looking at it. The question isn’t whether the equity supply is coming. It’s what happens after it lands.

A reader sent me two charts this week. The first, below, shows U.S. equity issuance climbing since 2023. The second chart below matters more, and we’ll get to it momentarily. The reader’s instinct was that these equity supply waves tend to either precede or coincide with market downturns. He’s right, for the most part, but history needs one important correction, and the current setup deserves a closer look than the cheerleading it’s getting.

The Setup: An Equity Supply Wave Meets a Record Market

Let’s start with the mechanics, because they’re what make 2026 different from a normal IPO year. New equity supply will hit the market in two waves, not one. First comes the offering itself. Then, 90 to 180 days later, the lockup expires and insiders, employees, and pre-IPO investors are free to sell. That second wave of equity supply is usually far larger than the IPO, and it arrives after the headlines have faded.

The second chart my reader sent captures exactly this. It stacks IPO gross proceeds against the value of shares freed from expiring lockups, and the 2026 estimate towers over every prior year back to 1998, with the combined figure pushing past $700 billion. The IPO proceeds are a small part, but the lockup overhang is the rest. Make no mistake, that is a wall of supply.

The pipeline backs up the picture. Goldman Sachs has projected that U.S. IPO proceeds could reach a record near $160 billion in 2026 if the marquee names go public. SpaceX, reportedly targeting a valuation north of $1.5 trillion, may price as soon as June 12. Behind it sit OpenAI, Anthropic, Databricks, and Stripe at roughly $134 billion. One pipeline tracker estimates AI-adjacent names account for more than 90% of the projected listing value. That concentration is its own risk, and we’ll return to it.

What History Says About an Equity Supply Surge

The cleanest academic version of my reader’s instinct comes from Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler. In the Journal of Finance, using data back to 1928, they found that the share of equity in total new issuance of equity and debt is a strong predictor of stock market returns. Their key finding: firms issue relatively more equity than debt right before periods of low market returns. Managers and insiders, in other words, are decent market timers. They sell stock when the price is right for the seller, not the buyer.

The chart record fits. The 2000 dot-com mania saw issuance advance into the March 2000 market peak. The S&P then fell roughly 49% into its October 2002 low, and the Nasdaq lost about 78%. The 2020 to 2021 boom was even larger in raw dollars, fueled by more than 600 SPAC listings and a record IPO calendar. The S&P peaked in early January 2022 and dropped about 25% over the next nine months.

Here’s where it gets interesting, and where the history needs its correction. The second-largest issuance spike on the long-run chart sits in 2008, dead in the middle of the recession. That one was not insider timing a market top; it was banks raising emergency capital to survive, much of it through government-funded recapitalization. The crash caused the issuance, not the other way around. So when you test the “supply leads the market” idea, 2008 is a false positive. However, even when you strip that period out, the two genuine euphoric supply surges both led to pain.

The valuation backdrop is what raises the stakes. As of early June 2026, the Shiller CAPE sits around 42. That’s roughly 28% above its own long-term average and within a few points of the all-time record set at the 2000 peak. This is not a cheap market by any means, especially when absorbing new equity supply. In other words, investors are faced with the second-most-expensive market in history, being asked to digest the heaviest issuance calendar on record.

Look at that bottom row. The broad index drawdowns were bad. The damage to the newly issued securities was far worse. As of late 2022, the SPAC class that merged between mid-2020 and the end of 2021 had fallen more than 60% from its reference price and underperformed the Nasdaq by 44%. The primary market itself seized up, global IPO value dropped 72% in 2022, and the Americas hit a 13-year low by volume. The people who bought the supply at the top paid the heaviest price.

Heavy equity supply doesn’t sink markets through mechanics. It shows up precisely when valuations are richest and buyers are most willing to pay any price. The supply is the tell, not the cause.

The Counterargument: Why This Time Could Be Different

Could this time be different? Sure, and the argument isn’t entirely without merit, and three points deserve a fair hearing.

1. The Fed is easing rather than tightening, which is the opposite of the 2000 and 2022 backdrops.
2. The companies in this pipeline are real businesses with real revenue, not the cash-shell SPACs and clickless dot-coms of prior bubbles. Databricks alone reported a revenue run rate of over $4.8 billion, growing 55% year over year. 
3. And the sheer size of names like SpaceX means index funds may become forced buyers once they’re added, providing a steady passive bid the 2021 micro-caps never had.

We discussed that third point recently in the #BullBearReport:

“The Nasdaq 100 is tracked by more than 200 investment products with over $600 billion in assets. If SpaceX fast-tracks into the index 15 trading days after pricing, every passive Nasdaq 100 fund becomes a forced buyer. When Tesla joined the S&P 500 in 2020, forced index demand drove the stock from $400 to $700 in three weeks before fundamentals entered the conversation. Index funds had no choice. Their mandate is to track the benchmark, not to price-discover the new constituent.

The S&P 500 is the bigger story. Current rules require 12 months of public trading and four straight quarters of GAAP profitability, neither of which SpaceX satisfies. But in late April, S&P Dow Jones Indices launched a formal consultation on rule changes tailored to the SpaceX IPO, along with subsequent blockbusters coming like Anthropic and OpenAI. The proposal cuts the listing requirement to six months and waives the profitability test entirely for megacap names. The new rules could be in place before SpaceX’s IPO in June. Why is this so important? As noted above, the passive index problem is magnified by the S&P 500, which is benchmarked to roughly $24 trillion and is roughly 40 times the size of the Nasdaq 100. If S&P adopts before SpaceX trades, the forced-buying problem isn’t a Nasdaq problem. It’s the whole index complex.”

Those are valid. Here’s the problem with leaning on them too hard. Quality doesn’t repeal supply and demand. A great company sold at the wrong price is still a bad investment, and the dot-com leaders weren’t all frauds. Cisco was a fantastic business in 2000. It still fell about 80% and took 17 years to reclaim its high. The AI buildout is REAL. The question, as always, is what price you pay for it. As Bob Farrell’s Rule #9 reminds us, when everyone agrees on the outcome, something else usually happens. Right now, nearly everyone agrees 2026 is a layup for new issues.

Then there’s the concentration. With AI-adjacent names making up the overwhelming share of the pipeline, a single bad print on AI capex economics could compress every one of these deals at once. In 2021, the supply was spread across hundreds of unrelated shells. This time, it’s a handful of correlated bets riding the same narrative. That’s not obviously safer. It may be the opposite.

What It Means for Investors

So what do you actually do with this?

First, don’t confuse a warning sign with a sell signal. Farrell’s Rule #4 cuts the other way: exponential markets usually run further than anyone expects before they break. The supply surge is a late-cycle marker, not a timing tool. Markets at records with nine straight up weeks can stay irrational longer than most portfolios can stay short.

Second, separate the index from the issue. The clearest historical lesson is that the freshly issued paper, not the S&P, takes the worst of it. Chasing the IPO pop has been a losing trade for 25 years. The better setup tends to come later, after the lockup wave forces motivated sellers into the tape and prices reset. Patience with the new names usually pays.

Third, treat this as a reason to raise quality and trim the most speculative AI exposure back toward its target weight, rather than abandoning equities altogether. The reality is that risk management means acting before the catalyst, not after. When the equity supply finally clears and the marginal buyer is exhausted, the move tends to be fast. You want to have made your adjustments while the tape was still calm.

My reader’s instinct holds up. Voluntary equity supply surges have marked the last two major tops, and the one forming now is the largest on record by a wide margin. Whether 2026 rhymes with the slow grind of 2000 or just delivers a sharp 2022-style air pocket, the setup rewards discipline over FOMO. The supply is coming. The only open question is who’s left holding it when the music stops.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 10:50

Former Biden J6 Prosecutor's ActBlue-Funded Firm Sues To Stop Trump's UFC White House Event

A federal lawsuit filed over the weekend seeks to halt the UFC "Freedom 250" event scheduled for June 14 on the White House South Lawn. The suit was brought by the Public Integrity Project - which is funded in part by ActBlue - on behalf of two Virginia residents and targets the Department of the Interior and National Park Service.

Brendan Ballou, founder and CEO of the Public Integrity Project - and is perhaps most notably a former federal prosecutor who served in the Department of Justice during the Biden administration. He worked in the Antitrust Division as Special Counsel for Private Equity and was detailed for two years to the team prosecuting January 6 Capitol rioters. He resigned from DOJ after President Trump issued pardons for many January 6 defendants in January 2025.

The complaint alleges the event violates federal regulations by staging a private sporting event on federal parkland (generally prohibited by National Park Service rules), constructing a large temporary structure ("the claw") without required congressional approval, and failing to conduct an environmental review under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), ESPN reports.

The plaintiffs argue the event is a private commercial venture benefiting UFC, Dana White, and President Trump (including through sponsorship packages reportedly priced at $1–1.5 million and potential promotional value), rather than a legitimate government-sponsored semiquincentennial celebration. They are seeking an emergency preliminary injunction.

Ballou has described the event as "a profound misuse of our sacred national monuments for private gain" and a "deeply corrupt scheme."

Also Biden folks...

The people that are upset about the UFC match on the White House lawn and say it demeans the White House were ecstatic about this trans-stripper on the White House lawn... Let that sink in... pic.twitter.com/tpAGvLYEqd

— The Magatarian AKA Billy C (@WildbillPH) June 4, 2026 PIP

The Public Integrity Project is a relatively new public-interest law firm Ballou founded in January 2026 after leaving government. It describes its mission as raising the legal and reputational cost of corruption. The organization has far-left affiliations (including figures such as former Sen. Russ Feingold) and solicits donations through ActBlue. It has filed other lawsuits challenging Trump administration actions since its formation.

The legal claims rest on standard administrative and environmental law arguments about permitting, construction on federal land, and procedural requirements. Similar procedural challenges to events or construction on federal property have been filed against multiple administrations. Whether this suit succeeds will depend on the court's rulings on standing and the merits of the regulatory claims.

The UFC event is set for June 14, coinciding with President Trump's 80th birthday and America 250 commemorations. A ruling on the emergency injunction request is expected this week.

President Camacho wouldn't stand for this... 

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 10:35

More Shocking Revelations Emerge In Henry Nowak Case...

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity,

The brutal murder of 18-year-old Henry Nowak by Vickrum Digwa has exposed a pattern of ignored warnings, police inaction, and institutional failures that stretch back years.

A young British man is dead after being stabbed multiple times with a large ceremonial dagger. Multiple red flags about the killer were waved in front of authorities long before that night in Southampton. They were all dismissed.

Reports and footage have now surfaced revealing that in October 2022, neighbours heard loud gunshots coming from a back garden in Southampton. They filmed Vickrum Digwa brandishing what appeared to be an illegal air pistol while another man held an air rifle. The pair were shooting at a wooden board. The neighbours immediately reported it to police with video evidence.

Moment 'weapons-obsessed' Vickrum Digwa brandishes gun in his back garden three years before he murdered Henry Nowak https://t.co/6SHTWelDc8

- Daily Mail (@DailyMail) June 6, 2026

Police responded that they could do nothing because there had been "no reports from other residents."

A neighbour later said: "We could hear gunshots, we went to look and saw them shooting guns at a wooden board. We filed a report to the police, but they told us they couldn't do anything as there had been no reports from other residents."

?NEWS: Hampshire Police, responsible for handling Henry Nowak's murder, had previously received a video of Vickram Digwa firing an illegal gun in his back garden but did nothing

pic.twitter.com/jXRExmUw2h

- Basil the Great (@BasilTheGreat) June 6, 2026

Digwa was already known for weapons obsession. Court evidence later described him as "skilled with weapons, trained with weapons, sleeps with weapons, searches for weapons on his phone."

Video evidence from before the murder shows Digwa aggressively handling a sword in public. One clip captures him in traditional dress, sword in hand, displaying the same confrontational manner that would later prove fatal.

The murderer of Henry Nowak has form for pulling a weapon in public.

Vickrum Digwa seen here showing the sort of personality we are dealing with.

Look at the sword in his hand. Religious exemptions for weapons must end. pic.twitter.com/omOIHVaI37

- Robbie (@Robbie_Reasons) May 28, 2026

His own Sikh community had already taken action. He was banned from the local Gurdwara because members viewed him as dangerous.

My Sikh community knew Digwa was a loose cannon and banned him from our Gurdwara. I had suspicions about him all along, just how the hell can a baptised Sikh act so recklessly with no regard to human life?

RIP Henry pic.twitter.com/eHwGEmjNEu

- Mand ? (@msinghsagoo) June 1, 2026

Digwa had also threatened a worshipper at his local temple.

Killer Vickrum Digwa 'had threatened' a worshipper at his local temple months before he stabbed Henry Nowak to death https://t.co/8CnZm6MriO

- Daily Mail (@DailyMail) June 6, 2026

On the night Henry Nowak was killed, Digwa and his family called 999. They claimed Henry needed medical attention for what they described as just "a cut to his mouth." They explicitly told the call handler there were no knives involved.

GB News anchor Patrick Christys highlights the details:

Damning stuff. The police were told Henry Nowak needed medical attention when Gurpreet Digwa made the phone call, albeit for what they said was just a cut to his mouth. The Digwas also explicitly said there were no knives. pic.twitter.com/TtmtmGO1yS

- Patrick Christys (@PatrickChristys) June 6, 2026

The police call handler also made this stunning admission.

Despite initially claiming Henry Nowak racially abused Digwa, it takes Digwa a very long time to concoct his story about what Henry actually said to him that was 'racist'. As soon as he says 'he called me a P***' the call handler said: 'That's what I needed to know.' https://t.co/FD8TRTczlo

- Patrick Christys (@PatrickChristys) June 6, 2026

But it gets even worse.

Just three days after the murder, in an apparent attempt to get control of the narrative, Hampshire Police prepared a statement that attempted to portray Henry as the aggressor. The initial wording stated: "It was reported two men had been assaulted by an unknown man."

The Nowak family pushed back hard against the false narrative. Police later softened the language to refer only to an "altercation."

Police 'tried to smear Henry Nowak as aggressor' just three days after his murder
https://t.co/Eeug0lGPUx

- GB News (@GBNEWS) June 7, 2026

So even after police KNEW Digwa was a liar and a murderer they STILL wanted to put out disinformation that would've prejudice the case and LIE to the public.

The Nowak family had to intervene. That is beyond disgusting.

As I said, put Hampshire police in special measures.

The... pic.twitter.com/RY9X1oIWGO

- Alex Armstrong (@Alexarmstrong) June 7, 2026

Even after Digwa was arrested and placed in a police vehicle, he still had the murder weapon on him. Reports indicate the large ceremonial knife remained around his neck until he was searched at the station. He was not handcuffed during transport.

'It means the killer was still armed after he was finally arrested.' @WillKingston reports claims that Henry Nowak's killer, Vickrum Digwa, still had a knife on him even after being arrested and taken to a police station.

? Freeview 236, Sky 512, Virgin 604 pic.twitter.com/Fpi4vPYsXr

- GB News (@GBNEWS) June 7, 2026

A source described the security failure as a "massive blunder" that could have been dangerous.

'No wonder trust in Britain's institutions is collapsing.' @WillKingston reports police at the centre of the Henry Nowak scandal reportedly tried to intervene during his killer's murder trial, over fears about what people were saying online. pic.twitter.com/ln5nTd0MWX

- GB News (@GBNEWS) June 6, 2026

These failures fit a wider pattern of rampant two tier policing.

A veteran police officer reveals to The Telegraph today that Scotland Yard has been captured by the "woke mind virus," with institutional priorities skewed by diversity agendas and fear of racism accusations.

Scotland Yard has been captured by the "woke mind virus" and no longer treats citizens equally under the law, a veteran police officer has claimed.

Read the full story here ?? https://t.co/aSE9nQUyOI pic.twitter.com/2WsmFZ7JYY

- The Telegraph (@Telegraph) June 6, 2026

Former chairman of the Metropolitan Police Federation Rick Prior has stated that for more than a decade, senior management at the Met pursued a policy of equalising outcomes between ethnic groups rather than ensuring equality of opportunity and equal treatment for all citizens.

This shift in priorities created an environment where warnings about armed individuals from certain backgrounds were downplayed to avoid racism accusations, while efforts were redirected toward narrative control and outcome engineering.

In a foreword to a Free Speech Union report examining the policies and training materials that directly contributed to police believing Henry Nowak's murderer over his victim, Prior was blunt. He wrote that it seemed the Met's senior management had been ideologically captured, and that its resistance to change was insurmountable.

The Free Speech Union report explicitly links this ideological capture to the mishandling of the Nowak case. Training materials and internal policies had conditioned officers to view certain groups through a lens of protected status, leading to the dismissal of evidence and the initial smearing of the white British victim as the aggressor.

?? New FSU Briefing: With Fear and Favour: Britain's Policing Emergency

Since the Free Speech Union was founded six years ago, we have consistently raised the alarm about the ideological capture of policing.

Today, the FSU has published a new briefing by our Director of... pic.twitter.com/PWIjULi17K

- The Free Speech Union (@SpeechUnion) June 7, 2026

Prior's testimony confirms what the public has witnessed for years: policing in Britain has been systematically distorted. Equality before the law was replaced by a hierarchy of victimhood.

These claims dovetail with Hampshire police whistleblowers noting that they had DEI training thrust down their throats, a trend that has been replicated across the country.

Police ignored clear evidence of an armed man with a history of threats. They downplayed or smeared the white British victim. They left a known knife carrier unsecured in custody. Religious exemptions for weapons were treated as sacrosanct even when the carrier had already shown violent intent.

The result was predictable: another young Briton dead, another family destroyed, and another demonstration that two-tier policing protects some groups while leaving others exposed.

Henry Nowak should still be alive. The warnings were there. The videos existed. The community had already acted where police would not. Every layer of the system that should have protected him instead prioritised narrative management and institutional optics.

Accountability must follow. Religious exemptions that allow dangerous weapons in public must end. Police forces captured by ideology must be reformed root and branch. British citizens deserve equal protection under the law, without fear that reporting an armed threat will be ignored because of the perpetrator's background.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 10:00

Key Events This Week: All Eyes On The First CPI Print Over 4% In 3 Years

Before we look at the Fed, let's take another quick look at the rollercoaster of the past trading session: a hawkish Fed repricing after the payrolls report triggered a sharp US equity sell-off on Friday with the S&P 500 falling -2.64% (2.59% on the week), its worst day of the year so far, snapping a run of nine consecutive weekly gains. Tech led the declines, not helped by Broadcom’s softer earnings earlier in the week. The NASDAQ dropped -4.18% on Friday (4.68% on the week), while the Philadelphia semiconductor index plunged -10.26% - its worst day since March 2020, and dubbed the "Red Sox."

All of this comes as tensions in the Middle East are building again with renewed strikes between Iran and Israel, despite what should be the 61st day of a truce or ceasefire. Iran targeted Israel with a missile attack yesterday after an Israeli strike in Beirut, while Israel’s military has responded with strikes against targets in Iran overnight. The IRGC warned yesterday evening that its actions would mark "a full week of continuous strikes", but there are also signs that the sides are looking to avoid a full escalation, with Axios reporting Israel strikes were “relatively limited” in scope and Iranian state media denying that it launched a strike towards a US airbase in Saudi Arabia after a missile alert there. The de-escalatory tone appears particularly evident from the US side, with Trump reportedly urging Israel not to strike back earlier last night, telling Axios that "The Iranian strikes didn't hurt anybody. Hopefully Israel is not going to retaliate.” This and the wider quotes from Mr Trump sound like a President who really doesn't want this war to escalate any further and is trying to find all ways to avoid it. Still, the events have further complicated the chances of an imminent deal. The key sticking points to a deal remain the release of Iran’s frozen assets, its stock of highly enriched uranium, developments in Lebanon, and how control of the Strait of Hormuz will be handled going forward.

So what a backdrop for the main economic event of the week, namely Wednesday’s May US CPI report. The timing is critical with the Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting, and Kevin Warsh's first as Chair, a week later. For a while now the case for hiking has looked notably stronger than the case for a cut and last Friday’s payrolls has hugely reinforced that. Non-farm payrolls rose by 172k, comfortably ahead of consensus expectations of 88k, with private payrolls of 120k also exceeding forecasts (89k). It left the 3 month average for payrolls at a 2 year high of +188k. In addition, net revisions to prior months were positive by around 93k, adding to the impression of underlying momentum. While a large share of the upside came from leisure and hospitality hiring and a sharp increase in local government employment, job gains were not narrowly concentrated. The three month diffusion index rose to 53.8, its highest level since March 2024, signalling a broadening in employment growth across sectors.

Against this backdrop, attention now shifts squarely to inflation. DB economists expect energy to play a key role in May’s CPI, with a sharp increase in petrol prices (around +6.8% seasonally adjusted) lifting headline inflation more than core. They forecast headline CPI to rise by around +0.55% month on month (after +0.6% in April), while core CPI is expected to increase by a still firm +0.22% (after +0.4%). On a year on year basis, headline CPI is projected to move back up to around 4.3%, from 3.8%, while core inflation is expected to edge higher to roughly 2.9%.

As BofA's Hartnett cautions, with US CPI set to print above 4% YoY and on course for 5% by US midterms, in the past 100 years once CPI crosses 4% on average SPX -4% next 3 months, -7% next 6 months 

Beyond the aggregates, the composition of the CPI will be closely scrutinized. DB economists expect continued tariff related price pressures in apparel and ongoing firmness in certain information technology goods. Lagged wholesale price increases could also feed through into used car prices. On the services side, shelter inflation is likely to normalize following recent distortions, but markets will be watching carefully for any spillover from higher fuel costs into core services such as airfares, delivery services and other transport related components. Evidence of broader pass through would add to concerns about inflation persistence.

Thursday’s PPI release will be an important complement to the CPI, particularly as it informs the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation measure. Economists expect PPI to rise by around +0.5% month on month, following a strong April print. Based on current CPI assumptions and the PPI categories that feed into PCE, core PCE inflation is tracking around +0.33% in May, which would push the year on year rate up to roughly 3.4%. Key PPI components to watch include healthcare services, domestic airfares and portfolio management fees, all of which have been contributing to underlying inflation momentum.

Beyond inflation, the US data calendar is lighter but still relevant. On Friday, the University of Michigan survey will be watched for signals on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. The headline sentiment index is expected to improve modestly to 48.5 from 44.8, with particular attention on whether longer term inflation expectations continue to drift higher.

Outside the US, central banks and inflation data remain the main focus, though the flow of information is more compressed. In Canada, the Bank of Canada announces its policy decision on Wednesday with no change expected. In Europe, the ECB meets on Thursday, where DB economists, and everyone else, expects a 25bp rate hike (99.9% probability according to futures), lifting the deposit rate to 2.25%, as policymakers continue to prioritise inflation control despite signs of softening growth. 

In the UK, April monthly GDP on Friday will be the key release, offering insight into whether growth regained traction early in the second quarter. In Germany, April factory orders (today), industrial production and trade (tomorrow) will give a read on manufacturing momentum and external demand. Inflation updates are also due for May in Denmark and Norway on Wednesday.

In Asia, the focus turns to China, with May trade data tomorrow followed by CPI and PPI on Wednesday. China’s gradual reflation is expected to continue, with PPI rising to around 3.0% year on year from 2.8% and CPI edging up to roughly 1.4% from 1.2%. Trade is also expected to remain firm, with export growth around 15% year on year and import growth staying elevated near 26%. In Japan, the highlight is May PPI on Wednesday. Futures are suggesting a 94% probability of a BoJ hike next week. DB's economist is more hawkish than consensus and expects a hike per quarter over the next year. You can see more on this in the World Outlook. On the corporate side, earnings highlights include Oracle and Adobe.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday June 8

• Data: US May NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations, Japan May bank lending, Economy Watchers survey, April BoP current account balance, BoP trade balance, Germany April factory orders

Tuesday June 9

• Data: US May NFIB small business optimism, existing home sales, April trade balance, wholesale trade sales, China May trade balance, Japan May M2, M3, machine tool orders, Germany April industrial production, trade balance, Canada April international merchandise trade
• Central banks: ECB’s Moulin speaks
• Auctions: US 3-yr Notes ($58bn)

Wednesday June 10

• Data: US May CPI, federal budget balance, China May CPI, PPI, Japan May PPI, Italy April industrial production, Norway May CPI, Denmark May CPI, Sweden April GDP indicator
• Central banks: BoC decision
• Earnings: Oracle
• Auctions: US 10-yr Notes (reopening, $39bn)

Thursday June 11

• Data: US May PPI, initial jobless claims, UK May RICS house price balance, Germany April current account balance, Canada April building permits
• Central banks: ECB’s decision
• Earnings: Adobe, Lennar
• Auctions: US 30-yr Bond (reopening, $22bn)

Friday June 12

• Data: US June University of Michigan survey, UK April monthly GDP, Japan April capacity utilisation, Canada Q1 capacity utilisation rate
• Central banks: ECB’s Kocher and Nagel speak

Looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data release this week is the CPI report on Wednesday. Fed officials are not expected to comment on monetary policy this week, reflecting the blackout period ahead of the June FOMC meeting. 

Monday, June 8 

• There are no major data releases scheduled. 

Tuesday, June 9 

• 08:30 AM Trade balance, April (GS -$57.0bn, consensus -$56.5bn, last -$60.3bn); We forecast that the trade deficit narrowed from $60.3bn to $57.0bn in April, roughly in line with consensus expectations. The forecast reflects declines in the goods trade deficit and the services trade surplus, with the latter driven by a sharp pullback in tourism services exports in April.
• 10:00 AM Existing home sales, May (GS +0.5%, consensus +1.0%, last +0.2%)

Wednesday, June 10 

• 08:30 AM CPI (MoM), May (GS +0.45%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.6%); Core CPI (MoM), May (GS +0.17%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.4%); CPI (YoY), May (GS +4.17%, consensus +4.2%, last +3.8%); Core CPI (YoY), May (GS +2.79%, consensus +2.9%, last +2.8%): We estimate a 0.17% increase in May core CPI (month-over-month SA), which would leave the year-over-year rate unchanged at 2.8% on a rounded basis. We expect mixed autos inflation, reflecting unchanged used car prices, a 0.1% increase in new car prices, and a 0.1% decline in the car insurance category. We forecast benign readings for the shelter categories—a 0.22% increase in the OER category and a 0.22% increase in the rent category—reflecting the continued slowdown in their underlying trend. We expect increases in the travel services categories (airfares: +2%; hotels: +0.2%), reflecting signals from alternative price data. We expect downward pressure from potential residual seasonality on the communication categories and public transportation categories outside of airfares. We estimate a 0.45% rise in headline CPI—reflecting higher food prices (+0.3%) and sharply higher energy prices (+4.2%)—which would raise the year-over-year rate to +4.17% from +3.81%. Our forecast is consistent with a 0.27% monthly increase in the core PCE price index in May. We expect a sharp increase in the financial services component—reflecting the increase in equity prices in April, which flow through to the component with a lag—to contribute to the larger increase in core PCE prices than the core CPI.

Thursday, June 11 

• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended June 6 (GS 220k, consensus 219k, last 225k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended May 30 (consensus 1,785k, last 1,777k)
• 08:30 AM PPI final demand, May (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.7%, last +1.4%); PPI ex-food and energy, May (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.5%, last +1.0%); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, May (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.6%)

Friday, June 12 

• 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, June preliminary (GS 46.0, consensus 46.5, last 44.8); University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, June preliminary (GS 3.8%, last 3.9%)

Ssource: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 09:50

Ceased Ceasefire?

By Bas van Geffen, Senior Market Strategist at Rabobank

There has been little progress in the US-Iran peace negotiations over the past weekend. In fact, it feels like the two sides have been walking backwards as the ceasefire is faltering. 

The US and Iran are still at odds over the frozen Iranian assets, which Iran wants released as part of any deal. But, yesterday, President Trump said that he will not unfreeze any amount of Iranian assets, nor lift sanctions, immediately after a deal is closed: “If they behave, if they do a good job, we start talking” about unfreezing these assets, he said.

And, if it is up to the US Treasury, there may be few assets left by the time Trump is willing to talk. The Financial Times reports that Treasury Secretary Bessent is considering using the Iranian assets to pay for the rebuilding of Gulf countries that were hit by Iranian attacks. So, we’ve now moved from “the US and Gulf countries help with the reconstruction of Iran” to “Iran pays to rebuild the Gulf countries.”

On top of that, new attacks put further pressure on the negotiations, and on the fragile ceasefire that was tacitly extended while negotiations are ongoing. US Central Command reported it took down two Iranian drones that threatened marine traffic near Hormuz, after Iran also fired missiles at Kuwait on Wednesday and at Bahrain on Friday. The US, meanwhile, has struck Iranian radar and surveillance sites.

Fighting between Israel and Hezbollah is also still ongoing. Defence Minister Katz said the country’s air force had launched a strike on a command center in one of Beirut’s suburbs, in response to Hezbollah’s continuing attacks on Israel. 

That’s another red line for Iran, which has already retaliated overnight. This remained limited to a tokenistic firing of five missiles. Nonetheless, it’s the first time since the ceasefire that Iran directly targeted Israel. 

President Trump called on Netanyahu to refrain from further retaliation. However, this morning, the Israeli Prime Minister announced that the military had struck targets in western and central Iran – including a petrochemical facility. 

This may be more about saving faces – Netanyahu wanting to project strength in the region, and Trump trying to salvage his peace deal – than an actual split between the US and Israel. Prior to the latest attacks, Iranian negotiator Qalibaf had already stated that the US’ greenlighting of Israel's strikes on Lebanon made US assets in the region a legitimate target.

Trump may be trying to salvage what there is to save, but can we really still talk of a ceasefire? The Houthis are now saying that they will close the Red Sea for maritime trade with Israel, effectively broadening the conflict. For now, Israel is singled out as the target, but the move adds to the risk of a broader blockade of the key passage – though Iran must know that that would certainly cause global backlash.

Unsurprisingly, energy futures are trading higher after a turbulent weekend. Brent futures are up almost 5%, to $97.50/barrel. This is spilling over into broader sentiment as well. Asian equities are down, led by a 4.3% decline in the Nikkei 225. The risk-off sentiment stacks on top of some unwinding of the AI trade last week, and concerns that a stronger US payroll report might force the Fed to tighten rather than ease. European equity futures indicate a loss of around 1.5% on the open. Likewise, rates markets are under pressure. 10y Bund yields are currently 3bp higher on the day. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 09:49

Intel Jumps On Report Google Placed 3 Million TPU Foundry Order

After last week's sharp sell-off in chip stocks, the latest attempt to keep the AI bubble inflated comes from a report by The Information, which says Google has placed an order with Intel to manufacture more than 3 million Tensor Processing Units in 2028.

Google's TPU order with Intel is a big win for the struggling chip foundry as it tries to rebuild its empire in advanced chip production and compete with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC).

The Information's Qianer Liu writes that TSMC's capacity constraints are turning into a boon for Intel as a backup manufacturer.

She noted that several major AI chip designers, including Nvidia, are turning to Intel as a potential backup manufacturer, but no orders from CEO Jensen Huang have been placed yet, as there is a testing phase to determine whether Intel's technology can be used to produce advanced AI chips.

The report from The Information sent Intel shares soaring in premarket trading, up nearly 12%. Shares had plunged into a bear market over the last month and were down about 9.5% last week.

Shares of the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) were up nearly 5% in premarket trading. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index plunged 10% on Friday, the biggest one-day drop since March 2020.

Among other notable movers: Nvidia +2.4%, AMD +2.8%, Micron +5.7%, Intel +2.5%, ARM +1.3%, U.S.-listed shares of TSMC +3.2%, Rambus +5.6%, Western Digital +4.3%, Marvell +8.7%, Microchip +2.9%, SanDisk +4.2%, Super Micro +5.8%, and Dell +1.5%.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 09:35

"Prepare Your Colon": HelloFresh Serves Up Anal-Sex-Themed Pride Month Ad

Struggling meal-kit delivery company HelloFresh made a Pride Month joke in an official statement loaded with innuendo, using phrases that could easily be seen as sexualized rather than humorous. The ad only suggests the company's marketing team still does not understand that this kind of culture-war marketing can alienate parts of its potential customer base, especially as the stock listed in Germany has crashed.

Anti-woke crusader Robby Starbuck pointed out HelloFresh's new marketing ad, saying, "Ready for one of the most disturbing marketing campaigns you've ever seen?"

He continued, "HelloFresh wants you to know that they have food for you to prepare your colon for receiving anal sex during Pride Month. Yes, this is real. No sane person should use this insane company."

Ready for one of the most disturbing marketing campaigns you’ve ever seen? @HelloFresh wants you to know that they have food for you to prepare your colon for receiving anal sex during Pride Month. Yes, this is real. No sane person should use this insane company. pic.twitter.com/R0Cy8JIOAC

— Robby Starbuck (@robbystarbuck) June 7, 2026

What were those loaded phrases?

• "Eating isn't always a top priority this month"
• "For those of you who are… prepping…"
• "High-fiber recipes"

HelloFresh's marketing team appears to be making a wink-wink Pride Month joke: if you are "prepping" for sex, HelloFresh has high-fiber meals to help.

"If Hello Fresh wanted to alienate a good amount of their potential customer base, they did so right there. Whoever is in charge of their social media account needs to be fired," Paul Szypula, a popular MAGA influencer, wrote on X.

If Hello Fresh wanted to alienate a good amount of their potential customer base they did so right there.

Whoever is in charge of their social media account needs to be fired.

Good grief.

— Paul A. Szypula 🇺🇸 (@Bubblebathgirl) June 7, 2026

Alienating the customer base might not be the best strategy for the struggling meal-kit company, given that shares traded in Germany have been locked in a four-and-a-half-year bear market.

... and revenue is collapsing.

Another woke marketing blunder.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 09:05

Futures Rebound, Oil Pares Gain After Iran Declares End To Military Operations

US stocks futures rebounded and oil pared much of its overnight gains, following a declaration from Iran that military operations against Israel ended after the biggest military escalation between Iran and Israel overnight. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures rose 0.7% while those for the Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.4%, with Mag 7 stocks trading mostly higher in premarket trading ahead of Apple's WWDC keynote later today, which may boost the Mag 7 group. Chipmakers that were the hardest hit in Friday’s selloff attracted dip buyers in premarket trading. Marvell Technology 7.9% while Micron advanced almost 4.2%. Nvidia led gains among the Magnificent Seven heavyweights. While European stocks rose, South Korea's KOSPI index fell by over 8% as chipmakers SK Hynix and Samsung joined a tumble in AI stocks, the plunge prompted a 20 minutes trading halt at the start of the session. It is unclear if today’s pre-market moves are more of a deadcat bounce (given the moves in FICC mkts) or if Thurs / Fri represented the extent of the pullback and now everyone is stepping in to buy the dip, according to JPM. Treasuries fell, with the 10-year yield up one basis point to 4.54% as traders added to bets that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates. The dollar dropped 0.2%.

Brent climbed as much as 5.4% after Israel retaliated against Iranian missile attacks, but the advance eased after the Fars news agency reported that the country’s central military command said the military operation against Israel has ended. Precious metals are under pressure but see a modest bid after the Iran news.

Bitcoin climbed 2.8% after falling below the $60,000 mark on Friday for the first time since Donald Trump won reelection in 2024. Strategy Inc. Chairman Michael Saylor hinted at further purchases. On the calendar, Apple's WWDC keynote is today, which can boost Mag7 or disappoint again should Siri fail to impress. Inflation prints are the other key releases to monitor.

In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven stocks are mostly higher (Nvidia +2%, Tesla +1.6%, Meta +0.7%, Amazon +1%, Apple +0.5%, Microsoft -0.07%, Alphabet -0.4%)

• Energy stocks and fertilizer stocks are rising, while travel stocks are falling, as a fresh flare-up in Iran-Israel hostilities threatened the Middle East ceasefire and lifted oil prices.
• Campbell’s (CPB) rises 1% after the food company reported adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Eli Lilly (LLY) gains 1.6% following obesity drug presentations at the American Diabetes Association conference.
• Ingredion Inc. (INGR) slips about 1% after agreeing to buy Tate & Lyle Plc for $3.6 billion, in a move that marks the end of the UK company’s near-century on the London Stock Exchange.
• Nurix Therapeutics (NRIX) is up 25% after Roche agreed to pay the clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company as much as $2.3 billion for rights to an experimental blood-cancer drug.
• Marvell (MRVL) climbs 9% and Flex (FLEX) rises 4% as the companies are set to replace Pool Corp. and Campbell’s in the S&P 500 before the market open on June 22.
• Wix.com (WIX) falls 15% after the web-platform said it expects an approximately $50m reduction in bookings in 2026 as a result of a new organizational realignment program as well as a more pronounced slowdown in the growth of its Partners business, beyond previous expectations.

In other corporate news, United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said affluent travelers continue to spend on air travel despite a sharp rise in fares, supporting his confidence that demand for premium products can withstand higher prices.

Investors are starting the week grappling with a host of negatives: renewed fighting in the Middle East, inflation pressures that are bolstering the case for rate hikes and worries over whether the blistering artificial-intelligence rally has run too far. A flood of new shares from companies looking to fund their AI ambitions, including SpaceX’s offering that concludes this week, is also raising questions about whether there will be enough buyers to soak them all up.

“There are three key potential risks to stock markets at the moment — Hormuz remaining closed, inflation and rates rising faster than expected and investors taking profits in assets which have performed spectacularly well,” said Michael Bell at RBC Bluebay Asset Management. “Some hedges and diversification against all three risks probably make sense.”

While investors have been paid to buy all dips in post-COVID, a hotter CPI print likely hurts risk assets so caution may be the most prudent pathway. Indeed, BofA's Michael Hartnett warned that with June full of event risk, a 4%+ print in Wednesday's CPI could trigger continued market derisking.

As traders get ready for two weeks packed with event risk, they are likely to remain cautious ahead of Wednesday’s release of US inflation data for May. The consumer price index is expected to jump by 4.2% from a year earlier - the highest rate in more than three years.

The European Central Bank is widely seen to raise rates Thursday for the first time since 2023. After that, attention will turn to Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as governor of the Federal Reserve next week. Interest-rate swaps indicated traders expect at least one quarter-point Fed hike by the December policy meeting. 

“I’d expect dip buyers to be patient, not quick,” said Hassan Raza, portfolio manager at CG Asset Management. “Nobody wants to be long ahead of a CPI print that confirms energy is bleeding into core.”

Morgan Stanley strategists led by Mike Wilson said the selloff in US stocks was “inevitable and ultimately healthy” if the rally is going to continue into the end of the year. His optimism was echoed by Citigroup Inc. strategists led by Scott Chronert, who raised their year-end target for the S&P 500 by 9.7% to 8,100 after a “big step up” in earnings expectations.

“Event risks haven’t broken the dip-buying instinct, and that’s unlikely to change this week in the absence of a fresh catalyst,” said Laura Cooper, global investment strategist and head of macro credit at Nuveen. “US growth is tracking firm, and we’re coming off one of the strongest earnings seasons in recent years.”

European stocks fall for a second day as oil surged after Iran and Israel exchanged strikes overnight, raising doubts over the durability of a fragile ceasefire. The energy sector is the biggest outperformer, while construction shares are leading losses. Stoxx 600 falls 0.1%. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

• European energy stocks outperform Monday as a fresh flare-up in Iran-Israel hostilities threatened the Middle East ceasefire and lifted Brent crude more than 5%
• Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena gains as much as 12% to the highest since July 2022 after both Banco BPM and Intesa made separate offers to acquire the Italian lender
• Tate & Lyle shares rise as much as 14% to 560p, trading below the offer price from Ingredion. The US company agreed to buy the British food ingredients supplier for 595p in cash per share
• Remy Cointreau shares rise as much as 4.5% to their highest since February after UBS raised their recommendation on the stock to neutral from sell
• Porsche shares rise as much as 3.5% after the German carmaker got an upgrade to buy from neutral at UBS, which said the firm’s turnaround plan was coming together and raised its price target to a Street high
• Zealand Pharma shares drop as much as 27%, the most in more than three months, after analysts highlighted disappointing tolerability data for the experimental weight-loss drug survodutide with partner Boehringer Ingelheim
• CTS Eventim shares slide as much as 6.3%, hitting a two month low, after the live events company was downgraded at BNP Paribas, leading to its only sell-equivalent rating and a Street-low price target
• Kardex shares drop as much as 23%, the most since May 2006, after the Swiss intralogistics holding company issued a profit warning, citing higher costs and lower volumes in its Automated Products segment
• Pharma Mar shares drop as much as 11%, the most in roughly a year, after Oddo BHF analysts say the timing has slipped for the Spanish company’s Zepzelca lung cancer drug in combination with atezolizumab

Asian stocks dropped, led by a selloff in South Korea, as investor concerns over an overheated artificial intelligence rally were compounded by expectations of Federal Reserve tightening. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 4%, the biggest decline since March 9, with chipmakers Samsung and SK Hynix among the biggest drags. South Korea’s Kospi tumbled 8.3%, while Taiwan and Indonesia’s benchmarks also slid more than 3%. Regional tech stocks tracked losses in US peers after strong US jobs data raised bets on a Fed rate hike that could increase funding costs and slow the pace of AI spending. Meanwhile, investors are increasingly worried over concentration risks, with a few large AI-linked beneficiaries dominating market moves.  Monday’s rout extended far and wide. Key indexes also fell more than 1% in Hong Kong, mainland China, Singapore and Vietnam. Australia’s market was closed for a holiday.

In rates, Treasuries are still lower on the day, pared losses after Iran declared it halted military strikes against Israel. Oil remains higher amid flaring tensions in the Middle East, with Iran and Israel trading fire.  US yields remain 2bp-3bp cheaper across the curve with 2s10s spread steeper by around 1bp vs Friday’s close. 10-year is near 4.55% after topping at 4.58% during London morning. Ten-year Treasury yields are up by four basis points and gilts are underperforming in Europe at the short-end. German counterpart outperforms slightly while UK’s lags by 1bp. Treasury auction cycle starts Tuesday with $58 billion 3-year notes and includes $39 billion 10-year and $22 billion 30-year reopenings Wednesday and Thursday. 

In commodities, after Brent initially clumbed by nearly 5% as Iran and Israel trade missile strikes, it has since sunk and erased almost all loses, trading at $95 last after Iran announced it would halt hostilities. Gold prices are lower, and Bitcoin steadies after briefly slipping below $60,000 last week.

Monday’s US session has few scheduled events, and Fed officials are in external communications blackout ahead of the June 17 policy announcement. US economic data calendar includes May New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations at 11am

Market Snapshot

• S&P Futures +0.7%
• Nasdaq Futures +1.4%
• Nikkei 225 -3.8%
• Stoxx 600 unch
• Gold 4324, +1%
• 10Y yield 4.53 unch
• WTI Crude +1.2%

Top Overnight News

• Oil pared gains after Fars news agency said Iran will end its military operations against Israel. Earlier, Donald Trump said the two sides were discussing a ceasefire after trading missile strikes. BBG
• The Houthis declared a ban on Israeli ships in the Red Sea, considering all enemy movements to be legitimate military targets. The move comes as the Iran war drags into a fourth month and hostilities flare across the region, threatening to derail a fragile truce. BBG
• South Korea’s Kospi tumbled 8.3% on the AI pullback with trading earlier halted due to the pace of the slide. President Lee Jae Myung said the country will unveil an investment plan aimed at supporting growth outside the tech sector. BBG
• Japan’s economy grew at a slightly slower pace than initially estimated in the first quarter but remained on a recovery track, keeping alive hopes that a rate hike is on the horizon. Real gross domestic product increased by an annualized 1.8% in the January-March period, compared with the preliminary estimate of 2.1% growth, revised government data showed Monday. WSJ
• OpenAI is preparing the biggest overhaul of ChatGPT since its launch kicked off the AI boom, as the $850bn group hunts for new engines of growth ahead of a planned listing this year. The company intends to transform the chatbot into a “superapp” that combines coding tools and AI agents, adding products that executives believe will generate more revenue. FT
• German industrial orders fell more than expected in April, following a ‌strong increase in March, when companies brought forward orders amid fears of price increases due to the war in Iran. Orders declined by 3.8% on the previous month on a seasonally and calendar-adjusted basis, the national statistics ⁠office said on Monday. RTRS
• A bipartisan US group will launch a discharge petition this week to prevent Trump from creating a weaponisation fund. The bill would permanently amend the Federal Judgment Fund Act to prevent any opportunity for abuse: Punchbowl.
• Nvidia and SK Hynix signed a multi-year partnership to develop next-gen AI memory chips. BBG
• Jensen Huang called a global tech stocks selloff that began last week a buying opportunity, saying the buildout of artificial intelligence has just begun. BBG
• Trump said the Fed would be wrong to raise rates, pushing back on speculation fueled by the blowout May jobs report. BBG
• The strength of the recent narrow-breadth Momentum rally is the dynamic generating the most widespread concern in conversations with equity investors. Sharp Momentum factor rallies with the equity market near highs have historically boded poorly for subsequent S&P 500 returns, with comparable previous examples including late 1999 and late 2021: Goldman  

Iran War

• Israel conducted airstrikes on a couple of apartment buildings in Beirut’s Dahiya district on Sunday, in what the military described as targeting a Hezbollah command centre.
• Iran launched four waves of strikes against Israel on Sunday evening in retaliation for an Israeli strike on Beirut, which it stated ‘crossed all red lines’, while it threatened devastating blows if Israel expands Lebanon operations. Iran signalled a halt to attacks if Israel refrains from strikes, but vowed stronger retaliation if Israel strikes back, and it closed its western airspace until further notice.
• IRGC said that the Ramat David Airbase was hit by ballistic missiles and that future attacks are to target US-Israel regional assets, while Tehran Times noted reports of missiles being fired at a US airbase in Jordan.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu was reported to be holding security consultations following the latest developments, while the Israeli military said the missiles launched by Iran were intercepted, although Iran claimed a successful strike on northern Israel.
• US President Trump said he was supposed to announce that a deal with Iran would be signed this week, and now this is happening, while he called for Iran to end the missile fire and return to talks. Trump also stated that he was not happy about Israel striking Beirut and that Israel’s attacks were not coordinated with the US. Furthermore, Trump said he would call Israeli PM Netanyahu to tell him not to attack Iran in response, and noted that they are close to a final deal, which he doesn’t want to blow up.
• US attacked Iranian coastal surveillance sites on Saturday after shooting down drones launched towards the Strait of Hormuz. US military said that Iran had fired missiles and drones towards Kuwait and Bahrain, while drones were also fired towards 4 commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iran Supreme Leader’s military adviser Rezaei said Iran’s attack on Israel on Sunday serves as a warning to Israel to cease strikes on Beirut, while he warned of a further response to aggression.
• US President Trump posted "Israel and Iran must immediately stop shooting."
• US President Trump said Israeli PM Netanyahu will have no choice but to accept whatever deal the US negotiates with Iran because he calls the shots. Trump stated that Iran's strikes had not changed his desire to conclude US-Iran negotiations and he thinks the deal is going on, but we will see what happens, and he would consider a commando raid on Iran if a deal failed, according to FT.
• US told Israel to hold off for a few days to allow space for a deal, with a joint action plan to proceed if talks fail. It was separately reported by Tasnim, citing Israel's Channel 12, that Israeli PM Netanyahu tried to object to US President Trump's request not to react to Iran during a phone call, but in the end accepted it.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said Washington is responsible for the current situation because it is a party to the ceasefire agreement, and the ceasefire has been continuously and repeatedly violated by the opposing sides. Action is to be taken whenever deemed necessary to defend the country's interests. On the ceasefire agreement, the spokesperson said that ending the war in Lebanon was part of the ceasefire agreement, and when this clause is violated, the diplomatic track is also affected. Furthermore, he said the message exchange is ongoing with the US and Pakistan's Interior Minister visited Tehran to push negotiations. Lastly, he said they are not talking about the issues of enriched uranium or enrichment at this stage.
• Iran's IRGC said that by taking action against civilian targets and targeting oil industries, Israel has targeted a dangerous game which will encompass all energy targets in the region and consequences for the global economy belong to the US. Iran's IRGC further said that we are ready to carry out operations on all fronts, and our response has been planned based on various enemy scenarios.
• An Iranian source said that "Iran is prepared for a long-term war... The coming days will show that the calculations of the Israelis and Americans are always wrong", Tasnim reported.
• Iranian Supreme Leader senior adviser said on Sunday that Tehran threatened to block the Bab-al Mandab if Israel escalates its attack, according to CNN citing IRIB.
• Yemen's Houthis announce a complete and total ban on Israeli maritime navigation in the Red Sea. The Houthis also claimed responsibility for a missile attack in Israel and said banning navigation to the enemy is a preliminary step and the group is prepared for additional steps against any escalation.
• Israeli projectile hit an Iranian petrochemical plant, with the Karun petrochemical plant damaged in Khuzestan province.
• Israel's army expects the exchange of strikes with Iran to continue for several days, Al Hadath reported.
• Israeli Minister Smotrich is expected to propose at the next Security Cabinet meeting that Israel should respond to every Iranian missile launched at Israel by striking 20-30 buildings in Beirut's Dehaya district, journalist Stein reported.
• Israeli military said the Israeli Air Force struck military targets belonging to the Iranian regime in western and central Iran.
• Throughout Monday in Iran, there have been reports of loud explosions in Tehran, Tabriz, Isfahan, Kermanshah and Karaj, while explosions were reportedly heard in southern Lebanon. Additionally, there were some arab sources reporting explosions at the Prince Sultan Air Base in central Saudi Arabia, however involvement was denied by Iran.
• Drone attack reported from Yemen towards Israeli targets, according to Tasnim.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were negative following the recent geopolitical escalation in the Middle East and last Friday's tech losses on Wall St, as money markets priced in a Fed rate hike this year following strong jobs data. Do note that Australian participants have been spared from the selling today due to a holiday closure. Nikkei 225 slumped at the open and briefly fell beneath the 64,000 level with intraday losses of over 3,000 points, amid higher oil prices and a downward revision to annualised GDP for Q1. KOSPI underperformed with the index triggering a circuit breaker early in the session after slumping by more than 8% as the tech sector was spooked after last Friday's selling stateside. However, the index is well off today's lows following efforts by NVIDIA's CEO Huang to talk up tech stocks and with announcements made regarding cooperation with South Korean tech firms. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were on the backfoot with weakness seen in tech and mining

Top Asian News

• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said long-term interest rates are determined by a number of factors, and the government is looking to conduct appropriate debt management.
• China's CPCA said May passenger vehicle sales at 1.53mln units, -22.3% Y/Y; Tesla (TSLA) exported 38.7k China-made vehicles in May.

NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.4%) have continued to slide following last week's selloff, with renewed geopolitical tensions over the weekend and a further Asia-Pac tech selloff weighing on sentiment. Over the weekend, Israel struck Lebanese targets despite US President Trump urging Israeli PM Netanyahu to refrain from strikes. In retaliation, Iran launched missiles at Israel and has now resulted in back-and-forth fire between the two sides. European sectors highlight the negative sentiment. Energy (+1.0%) is the only sector printing decent gains, benefiting from the surge in WTI/Brent (c. +4.0%). Underperformance comes in Construction & Materials (-1.6%), followed by Retail (-1.0%) and Industrial Goods & Services (-0.9%).

Top European News

• UK PM Starmer announces new commitments to purchase specialist AI chips at a value of GBP 400mln, as part of a new strategy. Following this, AMD (AMD) plans to invest up to USD 2bln in the UK over a 5-year period for AI innovation and research.

FX

• G10s are mixed against the Buck despite surging oil prices. Antipodeans lead, and CHF lags.
• DXY is a touch firmer today with oil prices rallying after Iran and Israel exchange missile fire. In short, Israel struck Lebanon’s capital, Beirut, and Iran retaliated with both sides exchanging multiple missiles throughout the morning. USD upside today is capped ahead of the 100.00 mark in the Dollar Index, the last time this level was seen was March 2026. In addition to the crude bid, the Buck is being helped in continued Fed repricing after a strong US Jobs report Friday pushed market expectations of tightening from 16bps to a full 25bps hike by year-end. With the Fed in blackout, the docket is quiet today with just NY Fed SCE scheduled. Note, some mild pressure was seen in the index after President Trump posted "Israel and Iran must immediately stop shooting".
• Rest of the FX space is indecisive. Antipodeans are mildly firmer against the Buck despite domestic newsflow light and Australian participants on holiday. JPY is a touch firmer in choppy trade as intervention fears loom around 160.00, while NOK was earlier helped by energy benchmarks, though now unchanged against both USD and SEK, as NOK/SEK tests 1.0000 to the downside.
• EUR is a touch lower against the Buck as it stabilises after post-NFP weakness. EUR/USD currently supported by 1.1500, with the APAC low of 1.1508. The highlight of the week is Thursday’s ECB decision, where the governing council is widely expected to lift its key rate by 25bps. ING writes in its morning note that support in the 1.14/15 region has a chance of holding this summer. EUR/USD -0.1%, testing the aforementioned lows at the time of writing.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed benchmarks are entirely in the red this morning, dragged down by higher energy prices after Israel struck Lebanon with fresh strikes, which led to retaliation from the Iranians. Following the recent attacks, President Trump suggested that the announcement of a deal with Iran was set for this week, but now new fighting is happening. He also stated that he is not happy with Israel, adding that it was carried out without the US. The Iranian Foreign Minister thereafter doubted that claim, saying the US and Israel cannot be separated. On a positive note, the FM stated that message exchanges are ongoing with the US, through Pakistani mediators. Moreover, Trump posted earlier that "Israel and Iran must immediately stop shooting".
• USTs are off by c. 5+ ticks and trade at the bottom end of a 108-25 to 109-02+ range; pressure which follows the aforementioned geopolitical developments. Also in the picture is a continued hawkish repricing at the Fed, following a solid NFP report last Friday. As it stands, markets assign a 50% chance of a hike in September, and fully priced in by Dec’26. Markets will look towards the US CPI/PPI reports due mid-week, whereby a hawkish report could see Fed officials push for removal of the easing bias at next week’s confab.
• From a yield perspective, rates are rising across the curve with the shorter/belly of the curve leading. The US 10yr (+44bps) has taken a more decisive move above the 4.50% mark, last at 4.57%. This brings into play near-term highs from late-May at 4.63% and then the YTD high at 4.68%.
• Bunds (-23 ticks) and Gilts (-43 ticks) follow the bearish action, for the same reasons mentioned above; UK paper mildly underperforms given its high reliance on external energy. Newsflow for the respective regions has been light this morning, but the UK has had an interesting update via PM Starmer, where he announced a new commitment to purchase specialist AI chips at a value of GBP 400mln. Perhaps an indication of the UK attempting to boost its attractiveness at a global stage, but unlikely to have any immediate impact on price action for now.

Commodities

• Crude futures surge after renewed Middle East tensions. Israel was the instigator, hitting Lebanese targets over the weekend, despite US President Trump urging Israeli PM Netanyahu to refrain from strikes. In retaliation, Iran launched missiles at Israel and the back-and-forth of strikes has continued into Monday morning. Israeli strikes have hit the Mahshahr petrochemical plant in SW Iran and have also struck military targets throughout the country. Yemen's Houthis, known to be aligned with Iran, announced that they are to stop Israel's maritime navigation in the Red Sea. Before this fresh wave of attacks, optimism for a deal seemed high, with US President Trump stating that he was supposed to announce a deal with Iran that would be signed this week. In a post on Truth Social this morning, he stated that "Israel and Iran must immediately stop shooting". This spurred some mild pressure in the crude complex by c. USD 0.50/bbl.
• WTI Jul'26 trades at the upper end of its USD 92.20-95.25/bbl range, but finding resistance at the 20-SMA (USD 95.36/bbl) while Brent Aug'26 briefly extended beyond the USD 98/bbl handle (USD 95.00-98.08/bbl).
• Precious metals continue to selloff, with spot gold trading towards the mid-point of a USD 4268-4353/oz range while silver slips below USD 67/oz. This initial driver for the recent slide came following Friday's US jobs report, which came in stronger-than-expected and has further increased the likelihood of Fed hikes. The downside in Monday's trade comes amid a slightly firmer dollar following the renewed Middle Eastern strikes. Over the weekend, the PBoC extended its gold-buying streak to 19 straight months, adding 320k oz t in May.
• 3M LME Copper trades on a firmer footing, despite the heightened tensions, as it nears USD 13.6k/t.
• OPEC+ agreed to another modest symbolic output quota increase of 188k bpd for July.
• ADNOC said to have issued the second tender in a week to sell crude from UAE, Reuters reported citing sources.
• Saudi Arabia cuts July Asia crude OSP by USD 6/bbl with the premium lowered to USD 9.50/bbl vs Oman/Dubai.
• India raised the prices of LPG for the second time since the beginning of the Iran war to help state retailers cut losses on discounted fuel sales.
• PBoC extended its gold-buying streak to a 19th consecutive month with the purchase of 320k troy ounces in May.
• USDA confirms second case of New World screwworm in Texas, says US food supply remains safe despite the detections. Canadian Food Inspection Agency also announced it will implement temporary import restrictions on livestock, including horses, from entering Canada from affected areas.

Tariffs

• Chinese President Xi called for multilateral and inclusive economic globalisation, while urging countries to resist hegemonism and authoritarianism and any efforts to revive militarism.
• European Council adopts regulation to establish a framework to protect the region's steel market from the negative trade-related impact of global overcapacity, as of the 30th of June.

Ukraine

• Ukraine’s military said it struck a pipeline pumping station in Russia’s Volgograd region.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russia deliberately struck a nuclear-fuel storage facility, which he described as an ’extremely vile’ attack.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky told UK PM Starmer that Ukraine needs more air defence missiles, while they also discussed Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
• Latvia Army Spokesperson said at least one drone has entered Latvian airspace from Russia, but NATO air jets shot down the drone.

US Event Calendar

• NY Fed Inflation Expectations 

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

A further reminder of our latest World Outlook, “1999 meets 1990”, packed with all our latest forecasts. You can see it here. Just when you thought it was safe to ease into the summer, 1999 has crashed headlong into 1990 over the last few days: We had IPO fever to start, a blockbuster payrolls beat next, a sharp AI-led correction, and now renewed US-Iran-Israel strikes over the past 24 hours — a timely reminder that a deal has yet to materialise as we now hit 100 days since the first US strikes against Iran. And if that weren’t enough, the football World Cup kicks off on Thursday, just ahead of a more personal milestone on Friday as another candle is added to an increasingly crowded cake.
Given Friday’s outsized moves, we’re bringing some of our usual Monday morning wrap to the top this morning. A hawkish Fed repricing after the payrolls report triggered a sharp US equity sell-off on Friday with the S&P 500 falling -2.64% (2.59% on the week), its worst day of the year so far, snapping a run of nine consecutive weekly gains. Tech led the declines, not helped by Broadcom’s softer earnings earlier in the week. The NASDAQ dropped -4.18% on Friday (4.68% on the week), while the Philadelphia semiconductor index plunged -10.26% - its worst day since March 2020.

All of this comes as tensions in the Middle East are building again with renewed strikes between Iran and Israel, despite what should be the 61st day of a truce or ceasefire. Iran targeted Israel with a missile attack yesterday after an Israeli strike in Beirut, while Israel’s military has responded with strikes against targets in Iran overnight. The IRGC warned yesterday evening that its actions would mark "a full week of continuous strikes", but there are also signs that the sides are looking to avoid a full escalation, with Axios reporting Israel strikes were “relatively limited” in scope and Iranian state media denying that it launched a strike towards a US airbase in Saudi Arabia after a missile alert there. The de-escalatory tone appears particularly evident from the US side, with Trump reportedly urging Israel not to strike back earlier last night, telling Axios that "The Iranian strikes didn't hurt anybody. Hopefully Israel is not going to retaliate.” This and the wider quotes from Mr Trump sound like a President who really doesn't want this war to escalate any further and is trying to find all ways to avoid it. Still, the events have further complicated the chances of an imminent deal. The key sticking points to a deal remain the release of Iran’s frozen assets, its stock of highly enriched uranium, developments in Lebanon, and how control of the Strait of Hormuz will be handled going forward.

Brent crude is trading +4.32% higher at $97.11/bbl this morning following the escalating Middle East tensions. And combined with Friday’s post-payroll US selloff, this has led Asian stock markets to mostly slump this morning even if US futures have ticked back up. As I check my screens, the KOSPI (-5.85%) is leading the declines, plunging more than -8.0% at one stage and triggering a 20-minute trading halt. It's now down around -13% from its recent peak. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (-3.78%) is also being driven by the tech sell-off. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (-1.16%), the CSI (-1.65%), and the Shanghai Composite (-1.26%) are also lower.  S&P 500 (+0.06%) and NASDAQ (+0.38%) futures are edging higher after Friday’s rout. 10yr USTs are +4bps higher trading at 4.57% as we go to print.

So what a backdrop for the main economic event of the week, namely Wednesday’s May US CPI report. The timing is critical with the Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting, and Kevin Warsh's first as Chair, a week later. For a while now the case for hiking has looked notably stronger than the case for a cut and last Friday’s payrolls has hugely reinforced that. Non-farm payrolls rose by 172k, comfortably ahead of consensus expectations of 88k, with private payrolls of 120k also exceeding forecasts (89k). It left the 3 month average for payrolls at a 2 year high of +188k. In addition, net revisions to prior months were positive by around 93k, adding to the impression of underlying momentum. While a large share of the upside came from leisure and hospitality hiring and a sharp increase in local government employment, job gains were not narrowly concentrated. The three month diffusion index rose to 53.8, its highest level since March 2024, signalling a broadening in employment growth across sectors.

Against this backdrop, attention now shifts squarely to inflation. Our economists expect energy to play a key role in May’s CPI, with a sharp increase in petrol prices (around +6.8% seasonally adjusted) lifting headline inflation more than core. They forecast headline CPI to rise by around +0.55% month on month (after +0.6% in April), while core CPI is expected to increase by a still firm +0.22% (after +0.4%). On a year on year basis, headline CPI is projected to move back up to around 4.3%, from 3.8%, while core inflation is expected to edge higher to roughly 2.9%.

Beyond the aggregates, the composition of the CPI will be closely scrutinised. Our economists expect continued tariff related price pressures in apparel and ongoing firmness in certain information technology goods. Lagged wholesale price increases could also feed through into used car prices. On the services side, shelter inflation is likely to normalise following recent distortions, but markets will be watching carefully for any spillover from higher fuel costs into core services such as airfares, delivery services and other transport related components. Evidence of broader pass through would add to concerns about inflation persistence.

Thursday’s PPI release will be an important complement to the CPI, particularly as it informs the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation measure. Our economists expect PPI to rise by around +0.5% month on month, following a strong April print. Based on current CPI assumptions and the PPI categories that feed into PCE, they are ex ante tracking core PCE inflation of around +0.33% in May, which would push the year on year rate up to roughly 3.4%. Key PPI components to watch include healthcare services, domestic airfares and portfolio management fees, all of which have been contributing to underlying inflation momentum.

Beyond inflation, the US data calendar is lighter but still relevant. On Friday, the University of Michigan survey will be watched for signals on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. Our economists forecast the headline sentiment index to improve modestly to 48.5 from 44.8, with particular attention on whether longer term inflation expectations continue to drift higher.

Outside the US, central banks and inflation data remain the main focus, though the flow of information is more compressed. In Canada, the Bank of Canada announces its policy decision on Wednesday with no change expected. In Europe, the ECB meets on Thursday, where our economists expect a 25bp rate hike (99.9% probability according to futures), lifting the deposit rate to 2.25%, as policymakers continue to prioritise inflation control despite signs of softening growth. 

In the UK, April monthly GDP on Friday will be the key release, offering insight into whether growth regained traction early in the second quarter. In Germany, April factory orders (today), industrial production and trade (tomorrow) will give a read on manufacturing momentum and external demand. Inflation updates are also due for May in Denmark and Norway on Wednesday.

In Asia, the focus turns to China, with May trade data tomorrow followed by CPI and PPI on Wednesday. Our economists expect China’s gradual reflation to continue, with PPI rising to around 3.0% year on year from 2.8% and CPI edging up to roughly 1.4% from 1.2%. Trade is also expected to remain firm, with export growth around 15% year on year and import growth staying elevated near 26%. In Japan, the highlight is May PPI on Wednesday. Our Chief Japan economist previews the week ahead here. Futures are suggesting a 94% probability of a BoJ hike next week. Our economist is more hawkish than consensus and expects a hike per quarter over the next year. You can see more on this in the World Outlook. On the corporate side, earnings highlights include Oracle and Adobe.

Looking back at the rest of last week now given we covered a bit of it at the top this morning. Markets finally lost their footing given the lack of a US-Iran peace deal, negative headlines on AI and mounting speculation about a Fed rate hike.  

Starting with Friday’s big news, Fed rate hike speculation got extra momentum from the latest US jobs report. So that led markets to price in a growing probability of rate hikes this year, with markets now fully pricing in a Fed rate hike by December. And in turn, that led to a big surge in Treasury yields, with the 2yr Treasury yield up +14.3bps last week (+10.3bps Friday) to a one-year high of 4.15%, while the 10yr Treasury yield rose +9.4bps (+5.6bps Friday) to 4.53%.

The equity moves outside the US were more moderate although the US sell-off continued after other markets were closed. Over the week, the STOXX 600 was down -0.53% (-0.29% Friday), although Japan’s Nikkei was up +0.39% (-1.31% Friday).

Market sentiment also wasn’t helped by the absence of a US-Iran deal, with oil prices moving higher as investors grew more doubtful that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen soon. That meant Brent crude rose +1.13% last week to $93.09/bbl, using the August contract for consistency, despite a -2.04% drop on Friday amid the risk-off mood. Higher oil prices helped push up European rates, with 10yr bund yields up +10.1bps last week (+1.7bps Friday) to 3.04% as investors priced 69bps of rate hikes from the ECB by December (+16.1bps on the week).

Across other asset classes, credit saw a divergent picture on either side of the Atlantic. US spreads widened last week, with US IG up +1bps, and US HY up +8bps. But Euro credit spreads moved tighter, with Euro IG down -2bps, and Euro HY down -13bps. Meanwhile, the higher rates backdrop saw Bitcoin fall to its lowest level since October 2024 at $61,625, a full 50% below its peak last autumn. And gold fell to its lowest level YTD at $4,328/oz (-4.67% over the week).

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 08:34

Poll Finds Strong Support For Larger Families Despite Falling US Birth Rates

Authored by Savannah Hulsey Pointer via The Epoch Times,

Most respondents said having children is important to a fulfilling life, while citing faith, family values, and economic stability as key factors.

The question of the declining birth rate in the United States has been weighing on many, including economists and those in the religious sector.

As more Americans reach the age of qualification for Social Security, the question of how to meet that demand alone has caused some to question what the future holds if American birthrates continue their current downward trajectory.

The current American fertility rate is roughly 1.6 children per woman.

A poll of Epoch Times readers found most believe that children are important, and also that the nation should look for ways to support family growth.

Importance Of Family

With a national average of less than two children per woman, readers were asked how they feel about family size.

A large majority of those polled, 87 percent, believe that having children is important to having a fulfilling life.

To add to that, 71 percent are concerned about the declining birth rates in developed countries across the world, but 63 percent agree that the belief that future generations will be worse off discourages people from having children.

When asked about the ideal number of children for a family, 35 percent of respondents said three children, 33 percent said four or more children, and 31 percent said two children.

When readers were asked how many children they either have, or ideally would like to have, 35 percent of respondents said four or more children.

Another 29 percent selected two children, and 27 percent selected three. Five percent said they would ideally have no children, while 3 percent preferred one child.

Religion And Values

According to Epoch Times readers, religion and values play a huge role in the decision to grow a family.

A whopping 83 percent of readers believe that declining religious faith contributes to declining birth rates. Even more, 89 percent, think that the decline of traditional marriage contributes to declining birth rates.

However, outside factors are also thought to be a major consideration. Fifty-seven percent of those polled think that the lack of support for parenthood discourages people from having children.

When asked, 83 percent of readers agree that a sense of purpose and meaning in life encourages people to have children.

The same percentage believes that modern feminism has contributed to declining birth rates, and even more, 89 percent, think that a national decline in family values contributes to a corresponding decline in birth rates.

One reader said, "A return to traditional values in the home and in the educational system is what I believe we need."

Other Influences

Practical struggles are also a factor contributing to adults' unwillingness to grow their families.

Sixty-one percent of those polled believe that economic uncertainty discourages people from having children.

Currently, 56 percent of readers agree that housing costs discourage people from having children, and 61 percent believe that costs associated with childcare and education discourage people from having children.

In a related question, 78 percent of readers believe that career priorities play a role in discouraging people from having children.

However, almost three-quarters of those asked, 74 percent, also think that social media and digital entertainment reduce interest in the formation of families.

A reader commented that "Economic relief from the massive fraud, which has caused the tax rate to explode," could be one solution to the issue of the declining birth rates. "This allows people to take less money home."

Addressing The Challenge

Those who believe there is a problem with how many children Americans are having also offered suggestions on what would be the most effective way to encourage family growth.

The largest group of respondents, 46 percent, said they believe renewed religious and spiritual values would have the most impact on Americans' likelihood of having more children.

Another 16 percent think that a stronger sense of purpose and meaning in life would encourage family growth, and 13 percent think that economic security would move the needle.

A combined 13 percent of readers credited either greater support for parenthood, lower costs in raising children, and more affordable housing would be the most effective way to change people's minds.

When asked to write in what they believed is most important, many made comments supporting things like "safety for the future," "strong marriages," and more "value and support of motherhood" as possible cures for the issue.

One respondent pointed to a possible systemic problem, saying, "A society that is not wrapped up in itself [becomes] less me-oriented."

The Epoch Times conducted this reader survey on June 3-4, 2026, by email and social media, generating 1,277 responses.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 07:45

Can AI Save More Energy Than It Consumes?

Authored by Haley Zaremba via Oilprice.com,

• Biglaw firm Duane Morris argues the energy sector's greatest AI-related risk is not surging power demand but failing to adopt AI tools fast enough to remain competitive.

• MIT research challenges industry claims that AI efficiency gains will offset its enormous energy consumption, while new data centers continue to be approved at record pace.

• AI shows genuine promise in clean energy applications - from nuclear fusion modeling to EV battery recovery - but the AI investment boom is simultaneously diverting capital away from next-gen energy research.

The artificial intelligence boom has created unprecedented pressure and anxiety in the energy industry. The public and private sector alike are expending enormous amounts of effort trying to quantify the amount of electricity that will be needed to power data centers in the near future, and get ahead of the skyrocketing energy demands headed for our already outdated and beleaguered electric grids. But the answer to the energy monster that AI is unleashing could very well lie in the application of AI tools.

A new article published by Biglaw firm Duane Morris argues that the most prescient AI-related risk for the energy industry is not the one posed by the demands of the sector itself, but the risk of falling behind in AI integration and application. The firm argues that the energy sector has an obligation to consider the ways in which large language models can be an asset, concluding that "AI should not be viewed only through the lens of risk avoidance."

"The risks of AI remain real and must be governed thoughtfully," the Energy Intelligence article goes on to say. "But in a sector responsible for critical infrastructure, the greater long-term risk may not be using AI too aggressively - it may be failing to use it enough."

Indeed, proponents of AI adoption argue that although training and operating large language models eats up an enormous amount of energy, not to mention other finite resources such as water, AI will be instrumental in making a wide array of industries significantly more energy-efficient. In fact, through these widespread efficiencies, some experts say that AI has the potential to save more energy than it consumes overall.

However, critics say that these claims are overblown and the result of wishful thinking rather than rigorous modelling. A 2025 report from MIT challenges such claims, pointing out that touted efficiency gains have not yet come to fruition, and may not be forthcoming. And while numbers on AI's efficiency gains - and even the amount of energy that AI is currently using - are still lacking, new data centers are being greenlit at lightning speed.

"AI's integration into almost everything from customer service calls to algorithmic 'bosses' to warfare is fueling enormous demand," the Washington Post wrote in an article published last summer. "Despite dramatic efficiency improvements, pouring those gains back into bigger, hungrier models powered by fossil fuels will create the energy monster we imagine."

Moreover, it is just this fear of "being left behind" that's fuelling the AI boom, arguably even more than actual demand. There is question as to whether rapid AI integration into everything from our energy grids to our electric toothbrushes - no, really - is going to create a more sophisticated and energy-efficient world, or whether it's just a resource-intensive bid to stay relevant in a rapidly changing global economy.

Wherever you stand on the issue of AI integration, it's increasingly clear that AI has some extremely promising applications in next-gen clean energy technologies. Researchers are using large language models to conduct "needle in a haystack" type inquiries to find the best methods and materials to advance nuclear fusion modelling, for example. In the renewable energy sector, AI is being used to improve forecasting of energy supply and demand for greater grid stability. And AI could even soon be used to give new life to dead EV batteries.

The massive energy needs of AI are also pushing increasing and intensified research efforts into cutting edge clean energy technologies such as nuclear fusion, advanced geothermal, and space-based solar power. But Big Tech is running on natural gas while it powers research into these clean energy ambitions. And, overall, research into next-gen energy is suffering from the AI gold rush as investors redirect their attention.

AI's role in the energy sector is anything but simple. And it's true that avoiding AI integration entirely won't solve the problem. But if the energy sector is going to eschew risk aversion and lean into the AI boom as Duane Morris suggests, it needs to have a strong policy foundation and a much smarter AI strategy going forward.

By Haley Zaremba for Oilprice.com

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 06:30