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This Is The Income Needed To Be Happy In 50 US Cities

How much money does it take before earning more no longer makes people happier? Researchers call this threshold the satiation point, and it varies considerably across the United States.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte, ranks 50 of the most populous U.S. cities by the annual income at which self-reported life evaluation stops improving, using data from Remitly.

Remitly adapted Purdue University‘s income satiation research by adjusting it for purchasing power and inflation, then scaling the U.S. figure to each metro using Numbeo’s cost-of-living index.

Coastal U.S. Cities Have the Highest Price of Happiness

Nationally, happiness levels off at an estimated annual income of $134,827. In New York City, the threshold rises to $195,969, or 45.3% above the national figure.

New York is followed by Honolulu ($192,441) and San Francisco ($191,266). In all three cities, the estimated income threshold exceeds $190,000 a year.

The table below shows the price of happiness in each of the 50 cities and how each compares with the $134,827 U.S. average:

Rank City State Price of Happiness vs. U.S. Average 1 New York NY $195,969 +45.3% 2 Honolulu HI $192,441 +42.7% 3 San Francisco CA $191,266 +41.9% 4 Seattle WA $176,960 +31.2% 5 Washington DC $171,081 +26.9% 6 San Jose CA $169,317 +25.6% 7 Boston MA $168,925 +25.3% 8 Oakland CA $166,965 +23.8% 9 Berkeley CA $163,634 +21.4% 10 San Diego CA $160,694 +19.2% 11 Anchorage AK $159,715 +18.5% 11 Los Angeles CA $159,715 +18.5% 13 Miami FL $155,795 +15.6% 14 Sacramento CA $155,207 +15.1% 15 Philadelphia PA $154,423 +14.5% 16 New Orleans LA $150,092 +11.3% 17 Jersey City NJ $149,328 +10.8% 18 Chicago IL $148,936 +10.5% 19 Atlanta GA $147,565 +9.4% 20 Portland OR $147,369 +9.3% 21 Denver CO $147,173 +9.2% 22 Dallas TX $142,861 +6.0% 23 Baltimore MD $140,706 +4.4% 24 Phoenix AZ $140,314 +4.1% 25 Buffalo NY $140,118 +3.9% 25 Minneapolis MN $140,118 +3.9% 27 Nashville TN $137,766 +2.2% 28 Pittsburgh PA $137,570 +2.0% 29 Tampa FL $137,178 +1.7% 30 Charlotte NC $136,786 +1.5% 31 Columbus OH $136,002 +0.9% 32 Richmond VA $135,218 +0.3% 32 Orlando FL $135,218 +0.3% 32 Indianapolis IN $135,218 +0.3% 32 Madison WI $135,218 +0.3% 36 Raleigh NC $132,867 -1.5% 37 Oklahoma City OK $132,279 -1.9% 38 Fort Worth TX $131,103 -2.8% 39 Salt Lake City UT $130,711 -3.1% 39 Boise ID $130,711 -3.1% 41 Austin TX $130,123 -3.5% 42 Milwaukee WI $128,751 -4.5% 43 Cleveland OH $127,772 -5.2% 44 Knoxville TN $127,184 -5.7% 45 Jacksonville FL $126,400 -6.3% 46 Tucson AZ $125,420 -7.0% 47 Houston TX $125,224 -7.1% 48 Albuquerque NM $123,852 -8.1% 49 San Antonio TX $123,656 -8.3% 50 Cincinnati OH $122,480 -9.2%

The upper end of the ranking is dominated by coastal cities. California alone claims five of the top 10 spots: San Francisco, San Jose, Oakland, Berkeley, and San Diego. Seattle ($176,960), Washington, D.C. ($171,081), and Boston ($168,925) also rank among the most expensive cities.

Overall, 35 of the 50 cities have income thresholds above the national figure, partly reflecting the higher living costs found in many of America’s largest metropolitan areas.

Where Happiness Costs the Least in America

Cincinnati has the lowest estimated price of happiness in the ranking at $122,480, or 37.5% less than New York. Put another way, reaching income satiation in New York requires about 1.6 times as much income as it does in Cincinnati.

Texas is the most heavily represented state near the affordable end of the ranking. Austin ($130,123), Houston ($125,224), and San Antonio ($123,656) all place in the bottom 10, alongside Albuquerque, Tucson, and Jacksonville. Dallas is the only Texas city in the upper half, ranking 22nd.

The pattern closely tracks broader cost-of-living differences between U.S. metros, which also shape the income needed to live comfortably in U.S. cities. Where housing and everyday expenses are lower, the estimated income required to reach the plateau falls as well.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Money Can Buy Happiness After All on Voronoi.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 18:50

From Forward Guidance To Market Guidance: Warsh's Reflexive Wrecking Ball?

Authored by Nohshad Shah, Citadel Securities EMEA Head of Fixed Income,

The Fed sounds hawkish... but markets are testing the reaction function

Chair Warsh was unequivocal that there is “no soft inflation target”, that five-plus years of above-target inflation cannot be cured by nine weeks of better data, and that this Fed “will not waver”. Yet despite that language…and three members preferring an immediate hike…the FOMC again declined to move.

Warsh instead repeatedly highlighted the large rise in nominal and real Treasury yields since June, arguing that reduced forward guidance had allowed markets to respond more directly to the data and, in effect, deliver some tightening on the Fed’s behalf. 

But all forms of FCI tightening are not equal…higher front-end yields because the Fed has acted to restrain demand are different from a higher long-end driven by investors demanding greater compensation for inflation, term risk, and uncertainty over the reaction function. 

Warsh also left markets with some uncertainty over how inflation will ultimately be judged. He confirmed that PCE remains the measure attached to the 2% target under the current framework, but left open whether that will remain the case after the strategy review concludes in January, while invoking Goodhart’s Law, the Lucas critique, and a broader (but unspecified) set of inflation measures. Those are legitimate cautions against relying mechanically on a single statistic. 

But investors will still want greater clarity over what the Fed will regard as evidence that inflation has returned to 2%. A fixed numerical target attached to a potentially changing measure risks making the reaction function harder to interpret, particularly while inflation remains materially above target. There may be a strong case for improving the framework, but markets will want reassurance that reform does not amount to changing the measuring stick before success has been achieved.

The initial market response suggests that reassurance has not yet been secured: 30y Treasuries have sold off, breakevens have widened, while equities and the dollar have weakened. Investors may interpret that combination less as a clean tightening in response to stronger growth and more as a challenge to the credibility or clarity of the policy framework. 

It is also an uncomfortable outcome in a market already unsettled by rising oil prices amidst the conflict with Iran and the accelerating unwind in AI momentum. The risk from here is a negative feedback loop: higher long-end yields pressure duration equities; equities fall while bonds fail to hedge; correlated losses force further deleveraging and the resulting tightening in financial conditions gives the Fed another reason to wait…which, in turn, encourages investors to demand still more inflation and term premium. 

This is the reflexivity at the heart of “market guidance”…the Fed holds because markets have tightened, while markets tighten because the Fed has held.

Markets may be able to deliver part of the required tightening, but they will still look to the Fed to anchor the inflation outlook.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 18:30

Darline Graham Stumbles Out Of Gate In Bid For Lindsey's Senate Seat

In recent years, few forces in electoral politics have been as potent as an endorsement from Donald Trump. However, the first polls in the special South Carolina primary race for the Senate seat that was held by the late Lindsey Graham shows his sister Darline is in second place, with half of GOP voters saying her Trump endorsement is irrelevant to them. Graham's campaign faces other headwinds, as many South Carolina Republicans aren't enthusiastic about turning one of their Senate seats into an inheritance for someone with a thin political resume.

After Lindsey Graham suddenly died on July 11, South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster appointed Darline Graham to be a placeholder for the remainder of her brother's term that ends in January. It was seen as a sentimental and politically-safe gesture, with no expectation that she would enter the race for the six-year term that starts on July 11. Then Trump issued a Truth social post, encouraging her to run and saying she'd have his full endorsement. Three days later, Graham told Fox's Sean Hannity "I'm in."  

Despite her Trump endorsement, Darline Graham, who's never held an elected office, trails House Rep. Ralph Norman

According to an Emerson College poll of the crowded race, Graham is starting in second place. She has the support of only 19% of likely GOP primary voters, while US Rep. Ralph Norman leads the way at 22%. A 73-year-old with a background as a real estate developer, Norman has represented South Carolina's 5th District since 2017, and served in the state legislature for 11 years before that. Graham has never held an elected office. Until this summer, she was commissioner of the South Carolina Commission for the Blind, and earlier held a communications role in the South Carolina Vocational Rehabilitation Department. 

Two other candidates are in the double-digits: US Rep Russell Fry at 12% and former governor and former House representative Mark Sanford at 11%.  Fry, who was reportedly hand-picked by Trump to unseat Republican Tom Rice in 2022, as payback for Rice's vote to impeach Trump over the Jan 6, 2021 Capitol Hill riot. A quarter of likely voters are still making up their minds. The primary is just a week away, on Tuesday, Aug 11, and the top five candidates debated on Monday evening. Unsurprisingly given her lack of experience discussing national issues, some observers said Graham seemed to lean heavily on her notes. Then, in a moment of spontaneity, Graham oddly suggested that constant noise from data centers is somehow a uniquely leftist and maybe imaginary concern: 

Darline Graham Nordone’s message to South Carolinians is clear: build more data centers, and if you’re concerned about the constant noise they bring, just get over it. pic.twitter.com/qmJOqBacas

— Kelly McCarty (@KellyLMcCarty) August 4, 2026

With no candidate likely to top 50%, expect a run-off of the top two vote-getters on Aug. 25. Assuming Graham makes it to the run-off, our intuition tells us most of those who'd voted for someone other than Graham in the Aug. 11 primary will migrate to the remaining non-Graham option.  

The race is a test of Trump's endorsement power, and only 29% of those polled by Emerson say Trump's endorsement makes them more likely to support a given candidate. 53% say a Trump endorsement doesn't affect them one way or the other -- but 18% say Trump's endorsement makes them less likely to support the endorsee. Not surprisingly, Graham's greatest strength comes from the oldest voters: 30% of voters over age 70 back her. 

Trump's endorsement has ruffled feathers of Republicans in the Palmetto State, including Dorchester County GOP chair CJ Westfall. Speaking in the context of Trump's endorsee for governor having been clobbered in the June primary, Westfall told CNN: 

"The president continues to get bad advice about South Carolina. We certainly empathize with Darline — and even the president, as Lindsey was a really good friend of his — but he’s certainly getting bad advice. We’ve got a lot more exciting options for this seat. It’s a once-in-a-generation opportunity.”

Other members of the GOP machine in South Carolina are likewise irked by Trump's move, with one state legislator calling it a "backroom deal" and another saying "Trump threw us all a curveball with Darline. That wasn’t expected. It wasn’t exactly welcomed here, either."  

Importantly, only 4% of Republican special election voters think their senator should focus on foreign policy. That's not good news for Darline Graham, as her brother was only known for his foreign policy exploits that centered on collaborating with the State of Israel to support US interventions in the Middle East, and partnering with Ukraine in America's proxy war with Russia. Reading the winds, Darline Graham has already made a point to say she wants to focus more on domestic issues like the cost of living.  

Darline Graham says she’ll be more invested in affordability issues than national security:

“Lindsey was more focused on national security. I know that’s important but I’ll probably be more focused on affordability, what matters to families, the struggling families.” pic.twitter.com/txDfpt6zoy

— The American Conservative (@amconmag) August 3, 2026 Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 18:10

Nick Shirley's New Video Dismantles The Left's Narrative On Ceuta's Migrant Crisis

Authored by Aaron Hanscom via PJ Media,

Intrepid investigative journalist Nick Shirley isn't one to shrink from danger. He had to escape from Cuba when spies followed him during his trip to the communist island and was forced to hire 24/7 security after exposing Somali fraud in Minneapolis. In his latest video, Shirley once again finds himself in serious peril when a Muslim man chases him through the streets while wielding a knife and threatening to stab him.

AP Photo/Antonio Sempere

The scene of the pursuit was the Spanish North African enclave of Ceuta, which has made headlines in recent days after 60,000 illegal migrants poured in from Morocco. Shirley traveled to the autonomous city to report on the current state of the crisis, which has become more manageable after most of the migrants returned to Morocco.

While the knife chase - in which the enraged man yells, "I'm going to stab both of you," at Shirley and Javier Mansilla, the Spanish vigilante who accompanies Shirley in the video, as they run down the street - will likely attract the most attention, there are several other revealing moments I want to highlight that go against the left's preferred narrative of what is occurring in Spain right now.

Spaniards feel unsafe

A woman from Ceuta tells Shirley that she "felt threatened" in the immediate days after the border breach. "I couldn't go outside with my baby. We couldn't go outside. I live up high, but my neighbor lives on the ground floor. And they were scared they were going to break into the house," she says.

Mansilla then expresses the anger that so many Spaniards, like the more than 1,000 who protested in Madrid on Sunday, feel about the country's migrant crisis, which has resulted in horrific crimes against women:

I feel very, very angry. I cannot understand how we let our own women live with fear going, running to their homes with the baby. Like "I don't want to stay in the street. I go home. Thank you. Thank you." I'm not going to allow this. Any Spanish guy shouldn't allow this. If we are men, if we are real men, we should do something right now.

Mansilla continues with a warning to all of Europe: "If we don't wake up now, we will fall. For sure. For sure. This is our moment. Wake up, Europe. Wake up."

There is a political party that is talking about the link between insecure borders and crime: the conservative Vox party, led by Santiago Abascal, who traveled to Ceuta on Sunday. He called what happened an "invasion" and said, "The frontiers of Ceuta and Melilla are the walls of our home and homeland, and they are not being protected by a corrupt and traitorous government."

The media portrays Vox and other European parties opposed to illegal immigration as radical or far-right in order to render their ideas unfit for serious debate. In a similar fashion, the media - like Anne Applebaum in her Atlantic piece, "The Far Right Is Distorting Ceuta" - has tried to dismiss the right's concerns over the crisis in Ceuta while criticizing it for labeling the situation an "invasion." That's why the work of independent journalists like Shirley is so important: it helps uncover the true story.

The illegal migrants sure do love Pedro Sanchez

While lefties like Spanish actor Javier Bardem are busy spreading conspiracy theories about Israel being responsible for Spain's border crisis, the migrants whom Shirley interviews are pretty clear about who motivated them to risk death - at least 72 people died while crossing - to come to Spain: Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez. Indeed, the most frequently repeated words in the video are "Viva Pedro Sanchez!" or "Long live Pedro Sanchez!" "I love Pedro Sanchez" is also a popular refrain. As I wrote in Elon Musk Was Right: Pedro Sanchez Is a Traitor, "Their gratitude to the Socialist prime minister is due to his mass amnesty plan, which received 1.2 million applications by its June 30, 2026, deadline."

But don't take my word for it. A 17-year-old Moroccan migrant, when asked by Shirley how he expects to leave Ceuta and get to mainland Spain, says matter-of-factly, "Through asylum."

The idea that muslims view Spain as occupied isn't a myth

After another migrant in Shirley's video declares, "This is Morocco," Mansilla explains that Ceuta in fact became part of Spain hundreds of years before Morocco gained its independence in 1956.

Not everyone cares about that fact. As I wrote in a 2007 article for the Strategic Studies Group on the "intifada of Spain's Ceuta":

The autonomous regions of Ceuta and Melilla are seen by Islamists as the opening fronts in their anticipated reconquest of Spain. Last year a North African group calling itself Nadim al-Magrebi warned of a holy war against the infidel Spanish state which has occupied the two cities. Al-Qaeda's number two, Ayman Zawahiri, has called for Islamic land to be reconquered from Al-Andalus to Iraq and compared the Spanish occupation of Ceuta and Melilla to the Russian occupation of Chechnya and the Israeli occupation of Palestine.

The irony that Spain, perhaps the most antisemitic country in Europe - or at least the one with the most antisemitic leader - should be so hostile to Israel, which, like Spain, faces claims that its territory is occupied, is obvious. That's why I agree with my colleague Scott Pinsker that mockery of Spain's (and the left's) hypocrisy on this issue is warranted.

The left craves chaos

Shirley asks Mansilla why he thinks Spain's politicians are allowing the border crisis to happen.

If they allow this to become the Third World, they know - people in power - they know they will be able to do whatever they want. They will increase their power because a ruler in the Third World is a real ruler. The thing here is that people in power know that if they become this, the Third World, they will increase their power and their money even more. That's the thing because they can control the society in an easier way. I mean, if, if you keep this full of third-worlders, you can do whatever you want if you are in power.

Vox leader Abascal calls Sanchez, who is mired in corruption scandals, a mafia leader and a traitor. Americans should remember how recently their own country had wide-open borders and a president mired in corruption scandals. Victor Davis Hanson explained on Fox News' Hannity why the Biden administration also craved open-borders chaos:

First of all, they are nihilist; they like the chaos. Second, they feel all these people will come, and they cannot assimilate or culturally integrate. They have no skills or background checks. No health care. And that means they will have enormous demands on the state, with bigger government, more taxes, more redistribution. And of course they are a constituency. They will be dependent on the state, and they are going to vote for a socialist ticket. And that is the subtext of both what is going on in Spain and what is going on over the border. And what the socialists have done here.

President Donald Trump has connected the situation in Ceuta to warnings about what the United States could return to if Democrats regain control of the White House and Congress. We should heed that warning as we watch Nick Shirley's video.

Aaron Hanscom is an editor at PJ Media, where he has worked since 2007. He was also an editor at RealClearPolitics.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 17:50

NY School District Pauses Classroom Humanoid Robot Amid Privacy Concerns

Authored by AG News Staff via American Greatness,

A western New York school district has hit pause on a plan to place a lifelike humanoid robot inside a high school classroom after regulators and community members raised concerns over student data privacy.

Salamanca City Central School District announced July 24 it was suspending a pilot program with robotics company Realbotix that would have brought an artificial intelligence assistant called Optio, paired with a seated, silicone-skinned humanoid robot, into AI and robotics courses this fall. District officials said they must finalize enhanced student data privacy agreements with the New York State Education Department before moving forward, and they are continuing to hear from the community.

The district agreed to pay $57,590 for the Optio platform and one M-Series robot, according to the school board contract, a discount off the robot's $95,000 list price. Had it proceeded, the program would have given roughly 500 high school students access to AI tutoring avatars, while the single physical robot served as a classroom demonstration tool, reportedly programmed with a Western New York accent and instructed to say "I don't know" rather than fabricate answers.

Some media reports have tied Realbotix's corporate parent to Intima LLC, a business in the adult companionship market, a connection the company strongly denies applies to the school project.

"For clarity, some media reports have falsely connected the Salamanca project to an adult product or adult-products business," Realbotix told CyberGuy. "The Salamanca robot is a newly manufactured, purpose-built educational unit; no existing product or hardware is being modified or repurposed for the school." The company added that its education-focused subsidiary "focuses exclusively on non-adult commercial applications" and said the two businesses do not share staff, facilities or technology.

Realbotix has cast the project as a teacher-supervised supplement, not a replacement for instructors. "The program is intended to complement, not replace, teachers by giving students supervised access to emerging AI and robotics tools as part of the district's existing STEM curriculum," the company said.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 17:10

AMD Crashes Despite Big Beat, CapEx Almost Triple Expectations

AMD beat on its top- and bottom-line:

• Revenue: $11.54B vs $11.28B expected

• Adjusted EPS: $1.66 vs $1.62 expected

Good news.

With Data center revenue up 107% year over year to  $6.72B, better than the $6.6B expected.

More good news.

As Bloomberg reports, last month, Chief Executive Officer Lisa Su rolled out new products that the company said will outperform offerings from Nvidia, adopting a more aggressive stance in a market it predicts will reach $1.4 trillion by 2030. That further raised already lofty investor expectations.

The chipmaker forecast that third-quarter revenue will be $13 billion, plus or minus $300 million ($12.5 billion consensus).

The outlook boost is good news, but some Wall Street estimates were well north of $13 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Additionally, operating income for the last quarter was only a little better than forecast and clearly traders were hoping for more.

But, AMD shares are down dramatically after-hours, erasing all the day's exuberant gains and then some...

Here's why...

Free cash flow was 20% below forecasts because Q2 Capital Expenditures came in at stunning $808 million, almost triple the $298 million expectation...

It appears the market is unwilling to reward hyperbolic AI spending... without some signs of ROIC (which the revenue forecast did not provide relative to the spend).

This is not great news for AMD’s competitors, like Intel, ARM, and Marvell.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 16:55

SpaceX Slides Despite Big Revenue Beat, Tame CapEx

Ahead of the SpaceX earnings today - its first as a public company - we said that investor focus is increasingly shifting beyond the quarter itself, and while revenue and EBITDA performance will matter, the August 6 lockup expiration appears likely to be the bigger near-term driver, opening the door to the first meaningful wave of insider selling just days after results.

On the call, management is expected to spend considerable time on AI-related initiatives. Investors will be looking for updates on data center buildouts, potential increases to compute targets and any incremental commentary around Grok deployment timelines. Stronger-than-expected AI revenue could represent one of the more credible upside catalysts.

Beyond AI, attention will also center on Starlink and Starship. An updated Starlink subscriber figure could be disclosed, although the market may be hesitant to place significant weight on the metric while the network remains largely supported by V2 Mini satellites. For Starship, investors are likely to focus on execution milestones, launch cadence and any signals around the path toward operational payload launches.

Lastly, positioning remains an important factor. As we warned earlier, and as Musk amplified, there is a huge retail short overhang.

I try to warn them, but they just double down … 🤷‍♂️

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 4, 2026

Hedge funds also screen as notably short, which could amplify upside if AI revenue exceeds expectations or if Starlink economics surprise positively, particularly around ARPU. Even so, the UBS desk believes the lockup expiration is likely to dominate the T+1 reaction and remain the primary stock-specific overhang in the near term.

And with all that in mind, here is what SpaceX reported for its first quarter as a public company, technically the second quarter of 2026:

• Total Revenue $7.8 billion, beating estimate $6.81 billion 
  • AI $2.561BN
  • Space $962MM
  • Connectivity (Starlink) $4.291BN
• Total Operating Loss $143MM, better than the $970MM loss a year ago
  • AI segment operating loss $1.26 billion, beating an estimated loss of $2.39 billion
  • Connectivity operating income $1.656MM, up from $923MM a year ago
  • Space operating loss $205MM, worse than the $93MM a year ago

Out of its three segments, SpaceX’s Connectivity business -- which encompasses its Starlink satellite business -- continues to be the only profitable one of the trio. Space, which covers launch and Starship development, as well as AI are operating at a loss.

Going down the income statement: 

• Total EBITDA $3.538BN, up from 1.214BN a year ago
  • AI EBITDA $1.146 billion,up from a $276MM loss a year ago 
  • Connectivity EBITDA $2.597BN, up from $1.583BN a year ago
  • Space EBITDA ($205MM), worse than the ($93MM) a year ago
• Total CapEx $18.369BN, up huge from the $2.825BN a year ago, but just below the median estimate of $18.58BN
  • AI CapEx $15.828 BN YoY, above est of $13.09BN
  • Space CapEx $1,174MM up from $946MM YoY
  • Connectivity CapEx $1.367BN, up from $1.130BN YoY

Taking a closer look at the last one, capital expenditures jumped to $18.4 billion in the second quarter, from $10.1 billion in the first three months of the year and just $2.8 billion a year earlier. Capex for AI was 86% of the 2Q total and exceeded estimates. SpaceX 2Q AI Segment Capex $15.83B, Est. $13.09B

And visually:

Focusing on the company's Space Segment, it writes that...

Starship V3 development continued to advance towards full and rapid reusability:

• Completed Starship V3’s first suborbital mission in May, Flight 12, which achieved a successful lift off from our new Starbase pad, a precision landing of Starship’s upper stage, and deployment of modified V2 Starlink satellites
• Subsequent to the second quarter, completed Starship Flight 13 in July, which achieved all flight objectives including deploying 20 production V3 satellites, demonstrating in-space relight of a Raptor engine, and executing the softest ever splashdown of Starship, providing critical views of an intact heatshield

Worth noting that Starship continues to add to SpaceX’s expenses. The total costs and expenses for its Space segment, which includes Starship development, were up by $389 million year-over-year, as the company "continued to accelerate R&D investments in our Starship program, which... will reduce the cost to orbit by 99% or more relative to the historical average, and unlock significant revenue potential across all business segments." In other words, Starship development continues to be expensive.

Numbers linked to SpaceX’s AI segment also showed improvement this quarter, mainly thanks to all the deals the company has signed to provide computing power. AI revenue for the second quarter was almost $2.6 billion, up from $737 million this time last year, with most of it coming from AI infrastructure. 

But the wins in the AI business, which include the release of Grok 4.5 in July as well as the computing agreements, also come with huge capital expenditures. AI cap ex is around $15.8 billion, with capex for the whole firm this quarter being about $18.4 billion.

Here are the other highlights from the investor deck:

• Demonstrated the power of extreme vertical integration, delivering revenue growth of 92% year-over-year across Space, Connectivity and AI
• Completed two successful Starship V3 flight tests in the past 90 days, advancing towards full and rapid reusability
• Closed multiple industry-leading Cloud Services Agreements resulting in $14.1 billion of contracted sales
• Announced agreement to acquire Cursor for $60 billion to accelerate the AI enterprise opportunity
• Released our most powerful AI model yet with Grok 4.5 in July
• Delivered 66% revenue and 79% income from operations growth year-over-year for the Connectivity segment, driven by a doubling of Starlink Subscribers and continued momentum in Enterprise & Government
• Awarded over $6 billion in multi-year U.S. government contracts for Starshield

Of the above, the last is perhaps the most notable beause as Bloomberg notes, "In case there was ever doubt, SpaceX’s first shareholder deck as a publicly traded company underscores the value of government contracts: “Awarded over $6 billion in multi-year U.S. Government contracts for Starshield” 

And the visual highlights:

One thing to note here: SpaceX still remains its own biggest customer of its Falcon rockets. Of the 78 launches it performed in the last six months, the majority were spent deploying Starlink satellites.

Some more details:

• SpaceX Ended 2Q With $100B Cash, Cash Equivalents, Securities
• SpaceX Ended 2Q With $47.5B Backlog

The bottom line: revenue (especially at AI where it surged from $737MM to $2.6BN) solid, and CapEx came in just below expectations, so overall a solid quarter. 

The (relatively brief) earnings report also has some CFO commentary. Bret Johnsen writes that the business is scaling across all three segments. He says revenue growth “accelerated across all our business segments” and points to “strong operating leverage,” with margin expansion driven by the new AI computing agreements (the business of renting data center capacity to other tech companies -- Google and Anthropic).

Additionally, the company "ended the second quarter with $100 billion of cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities, and $47.5 billion in backlog." This financial strength gives SpaceX the "capacity to invest in Starship, Starlink Broadband and Mobile satellites, and our AI platform, while maintaining a disciplined long-term capital allocation framework."

Notably, there was no mention of Tesla or the Terafab in this release, although it is certain that analysts will ask about this on the call.

Also Bloomberg notes that there’s no direction on cap ex and it isn't clear what it would be. However, after the IPO and SpaceX tapping the corporate bond market, the CFO paints a picture of SpaceX being in a strong position to spend.

“This financial strength gives us substantial capacity to invest in Starship, Starlink Broadband and Mobile satellites, and our AI platform, while maintaining a disciplined long-term capital allocation framework.”

Looking ahead, there isn't much (any) information on what comes next, as there does not appear to be a forward outlook section. So no details on projected revenues and costs. We’re also lacking information on what comes next for its business segments.

When will SpaceX launch Starship again on its next test flight? What will the launch schedule look like moving forward? And what  about the timelines for its V3 Starlink satellites and Starmind AI data center satellite system? Perhaps we’ll get some snippets about that during the earnings call.

So what to make of all this? While the quarter was solid, with revenue coming in $1BN above estimates, with capex below the bogey, the fact that the stock ran up aggressively during today's session may have set up the results for failure, and sure enough, after initially spiking higher, shares are off their highs (and lo0ws) and trading is choppy as shares drop more than 1%, erasing all of their previous post-market gains. However, as noted earlier, the stock gained nearly 10% in today’s regular session, its best performance since June. So on net, it is still up modestly on the day.

Investors are also likely gaming out what will be said on the conference call ahead of a Thursday share unlock which could flood the market with as many as 911.5 million additional shares. The options market was also pricing in a roughly 15% move after the results so more volatility may be ahead.

And while it’s not unusual for stocks to fall after a company reports solid earnings (especially its first earnings), Bloomberg notes that it usually follows a period of outperformance for shares. SpaceX is still down solidly from its $135 IPO price and has more downside pressure ahead as share lockups start to expire.

Full investor presentation below (pdf link):

SpaceX Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results by Zerohedge

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 16:39

Reality Denied

Authored by James Thorne via RealClearPolitics.com,

Elon Musk’s recent interview with The Economist underscored a simple but increasingly uncomfortable truth: In today’s political climate, stating the obvious can sound like provocation. The Overton Window, the range of ideas considered acceptable in public debate, has not merely drifted, it has been pulled away from the constraints of reality.

Musk’s real value in this conversation is not that he is always right. It is that he forces a confrontation between reality and rhetoric. And once that confrontation occurs, the limits of the prevailing framework come into view: It can organize language and signal virtue, but it struggles to explain outcomes. The exchange itself illustrated the point.

Rather than fully engaging his arguments, the interviewer at times defaulted to dismissive framing, implying that Musk himself was the issue. It was a familiar substitution: Discredit the speaker, avoid the substance.

Start with basics.

The United States should control its borders. Public safety should be enforced. Governments should operate within fiscal limits. Safe and secure elections are non-negotiable. Public institutions should act responsibly in the interests of their citizens. Industrial and trade policy should strengthen domestic production and deliver clear benefits to American workers.

These are common-sense views held by ordinary citizens, not some extreme ideological position as they are often portrayed.

That is precisely why they are now contested.

Basic logic and common sense are increasingly labeled as “extreme,” often coded as right-wing regardless of their content.

For too long, parts of the progressive left have effectively weaponized the Overton Window to enforce those labels. Questions grounded in observable facts, whether about immigration, crime, fiscal limits, trade, pandemic-era trade-offs, or basic policy outcomes, are too often branded “MAGA,” “far-right,” or a “conspiracy theory,” then brushed aside with confidence instead of answered on the merits.

This mechanism is effective because it shifts the cost of debate. Instead of defending weak outcomes, it raises the social and reputational cost of pointing them out. Dissent is not refuted, it is stigmatized. What was once ordinary becomes controversial. What remains inside the window is treated as settled, regardless of results.

The consequences are increasingly visible. Concerns about migration pressures on housing and public services are waved away as the hollowing out of middle America. Crime is discussed without equal emphasis on enforcement. Fiscal constraints are acknowledged rhetorically but deferred in practice, even as interest costs rise. Industrial policy is justified in expansive terms, but less often judged by whether it delivers measurable, broad-based gains for American workers.

The pattern extends to how arguments are received. When Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton spoke about border security, it was widely viewed as pragmatic. When Donald Trump raised similar concerns, they were often treated as outside the bounds of acceptable discourse. More broadly, the deeper problem is less about any single statement than the tendency of much of the media and the progressive left to protect favored figures from scrutiny while abdicating the traditional role of the fourth estate. That is what Musk attacks head on.

Over time, this weakens the connection between policy and results. When outcomes disappoint, the response is often reinterpretation rather than recalibration. Housing shortages persist, public safety concerns linger, deficits expand – yet the underlying assumptions remain largely intact.

A functioning political system requires more than intention. It requires feedback, accountability, and a willingness to confront inconvenient facts. When common sense is pushed outside the Overton Window, the system loses its capacity for self-correction.

The middle has not become extreme. The definition of “acceptable” has. And when common sense is treated as rebellion, the shift reflects changes in elite discourse, particularly within major media and institutional voices, more than any transformation among the public itself.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 16:20

World's Largest PC Makers Start Using Memory Chips From China's CXMT

It's not just Apple that is scrambling to find cheap memory alternatives to the DRAM offerings from the memory "cartel" of Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron: according to the Nikkei Asia, a trio of the world's leading PC makers - HP, Asus and Acer - have started to use small amounts of chips from China's ChangXin Memory Technologies (better known as the recently IPOed CXMT) amid an unprecedented memory shortage fueled by demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Many major PC makers completed the qualification process for CXMT's DRAM chips around the middle of this year and have started to use a limited amount in their notebook computers, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter.

The amount of CXMT chips used and the number of notebook models utilizing them are very limited as of now, as CXMT is prioritizing a large part of its production capacity for Chinese clients, such as Huawei. The notebook models that use CXMT chips are for sale in non-U.S. markets.

The PC companies are also taking a restrained approach over their use of CXMT chips due to concerns that doing otherwise would anger leading global memory chipmakers Micron, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, two sources said.

"The top three memory chipmakers accounted for more than 90% of global market share," an executive with a PC company with direct knowledge of the matter told Nikkei Asia. "PC companies have to be very careful and stay low-key about [the use of CXMT chips] ... After all, it is a seller's market now. We dare not source too much from CXMT at this moment."

CXMT, moreover, is included on a Pentagon list of companies alleged to have ties to the Chinese military, making sourcing from it potentially sensitive for U.S. companies. The Chinese company has denied the allegations and is not subject to an outright trade blacklist.

Still, the adoption marks a significant win for CXMT, which recently listed on Shanghai's STAR Market and after soaring nearly 8-fold since its IPO last week, boasts a market valuation exceeding that of Intel, America's top microprocessor maker.

"Although PC makers only use very small volumes [of CXMT's DRAM] for budget models, they don't want to neglect a potential important source, particularly when the market is so constrained," one supply chain manager supplying to HP and Asus told Nikkei Asia.

Not everyone is terrified of retaliation by the memory cartel: another industry executive said some PC makers have secured additional supplies of central processing units (CPUs) and are now racing to lock in more memory to match, making them much more open to sourcing from any available supplier, including CXMT. "After all, PC makers still hope to work with all the available sources as the market is very constrained now," the person said.

In response to request for comment, Acer said: "We do not disclose our suppliers, but that we keep in close contact with multiple global manufacturers and suppliers to dynamically adjust operations to manage component prices changes. We work with multiple manufacturers and suppliers to enhance our supply chain resilience."

The PC and smartphone industries have been suffering from shortages of memory chips and CPUs since late last year. Earlier thi year, Nikkei Asia was the first to report that HP, Dell, Asus and Acer were considering using CXMT's DRAM.

PC companies have prioritized chips for premium models and raised overall prices by several hundred dollars to reflect the rising component costs. Smartphone companies like Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo, on the other hand, cut their 2026 shipment forecasts several times due to the memory shortages.

The global PC industry is expected to decline more than 11% this year due to the unprecedented memory crunch, with supply conditions worsening toward the end of this year, market research company IDC estimates.

The shortfall in memory chips has turned out to be a golden opportunity for CXMT to tap the global PC supply chain. The Hefei, China-based memory chipmaker listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's tech-focused STAR Market on July 27 and its share price soared almost 5x on the first day of trading. Its market capitalization reached more than 3.5 trillion yuan ($545 billion) as of Tuesday, topping Intel and starting to approach Micron and SK Hynix.

CXMT estimated in a filing to the Shanghai Stock Exchange that its net profit for the first half of 2026 would reach between 52 billion yuan and 58 billion yuan, up as much as 2,530% from a year earlier. The chipmaker attributed the surge to favorable market conditions and a better pricing environment. CXMT already supplies to almost all the top Chinese tech companies including Tencent, Alibaba Cloud and ByteDance.

"You would think CXMT's price is cheaper than the top three players, which is a wrong assumption. ... Their DRAM is definitely no cheaper than the likes of Samsung," one of the people said. "We also couldn't book supplies from CXMT beyond the current quarter, as so many companies are racing to secure DRAM from it," the person added.

CXMT and domestic peer Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC) are undertaking their most aggressive capacity expansion plans at home. CXMT is expanding plants in Shanghai with the aim of having a capacity two to three times larger than its homebase in Hefei, including capacity for building high-bandwidth memory (HBM), a crucial AI component, Nikkei Asia reported earlier.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 15:40

Chipotle Pulls Jalapeños As Minnesota Salmonella Outbreak Widens To 15 States; Shares Tumble

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) shares fell sharply Tuesday after Bloomberg reported that the chain had removed jalapeños from Minnesota restaurants over a suspected link to a salmonella outbreak that has sickened 110 people in the state - while WaPo reports that the outbreak has spread to 15 states. Chipotle stock fell as much as 8.5% against Monday's close - some outlets clocked the low nearer 9% - and was trading roughly 7% lower in the afternoon.

Chipotle pulled the packs of (potentially) poopy peppers from every store that received them and swapped in product from other growers. Laurie Schalow, the company's chief corporate affairs and food safety officer, framed the move as proactive, taken after Chipotle learned of a potential salmonella problem in a supply chain serving multiple food-service retailers.

The epidemiological signal is strong: of 84 sickened people interviewed, 75 said they had eaten at a Chipotle. Illness onsets trace to meals between June 14 and July 14. Minnesota's health department said the chain has cooperated fully - providing records and taking preventive steps - and that it is no longer concerned about Chipotle specifically now that the peppers are out of its restaurants.

The FDA posted its investigation on July 22 tied to 212 people. Minnesota said federal authorities are running a traceback on produce - including but not limited to jalapeños - potentially contaminated with Salmonella Javiana.

Bloomberg also reports that Michigan health officials were in contact with Taco Bell parent company Yum! Brands about the cyclospora outbreak in early July, weeks before Taco Bell publicly alerted consumers. MDHHS held a call with Yum on July 2, per documents obtained through a public records request, and in a follow-up email asked to reach the company's supply-chain quality assurance and communications teams to discuss interventions or notifications that could reduce future cases.

Michigan advised businesses handling raw produce to take extra precautions on July 4, and a state rapid response team pressed Taco Bell again for documents on July 6, citing the pace and scale of illness. Taco Bell didn't confirm publicly until July 14 that it had removed limited ingredients at select restaurants, saying at the time that no link to the chain, an ingredient or a supplier had been confirmed. Federal authorities didn't publicly connect Taco Bell to the outbreak until July 17.

Shitty Situation

Cyclosporiasis cases nationwide have topped 18,000 across 45 states since May 1, of which the CDC has laboratory-confirmed 6,707, with 423 hospitalizations and more than 11,500 still under investigation. Only a slice of that is Taco Bell's: the CDC has 1,644 sick people who reported eating there, and says plainly it is chasing other cyclospora outbreaks that have nothing to do with this one. Michigan is the epicenter either way, with more than 11,000 cases and the outbreak's only two deaths, both in people the state said had significant underlying conditions.

That timeline is the relevant backdrop for how the market read today's Chipotle news. Chipotle's disclosure posture - pull first, say so publicly, cooperate on the record - is the opposite of what the Michigan documents describe, and Minnesota's health department went out of its way to say the chain is not its concern. The stock fell 8.5% anyway.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 15:20

Democratic Socialists Openly Call For The Erasure Of Constitutional Government

Joseph McCarthy was right about everything.  Communist movements have been playing the long game from inside western nations, exploiting the liberal freedoms westerners enjoy as a backdoor to sabotage free market choice and constitutional checks and balances from within.  The players might have changed over the decades, but the ideological goals remain the same.  

Forget about the "false left/right paradigm"; that concept is now dead.  Whatever logical clarity or loyalty to the American way that average progressives might have had is long gone.  They have detached completely from morality and ideals of merit and responsibility.  They are financially backed by some of the most evil NGOs and globalist corporations on the planet.  They have ties to some of the most despicable and oppressive governments in the world.  

The political left is the monster they claim to be fighting against.  They are the foot soldiers of the globalist order.  They are the greatest existing threat to western civilization.  To be "right wing" today simply means your principles sit to the right of Stalin and Mao.  It doesn't take much deviation to find yourself a mortal enemy of the leftist fold. 

Furthermore, these groups are intricately organized and operating using classic communist subversion tactics commonly used throughout Europe from the 1920s to the 1990s.  This includes front organizations, labor infiltration, agitation, influence operations, paramilitary training and mass propaganda.  

Remember when Democrats used to argue that the woke movement was not communist and to label it as such was a misinterpretation of what communism actually is?  Remember when they argued that Cultural Marxism is not a real thing?  Well, now they're coming out and openly admitting the agenda.

DSA candidates are infesting the Democrat Party, and if you thought the typical blue state liberals were extreme, get ready because the next generation is full-bore collectivist in their rhetoric and resolve.  In recent interviews with DSA politicians and campaigners, they list a series of goals (or demands) then intend to enact once they gain enough governmental power.  For example...

Erasure Of The Electoral College:   In other words, the destruction of the republic and the institution of a traditional "democracy" in which the 51% rule over the 49%.  Leftists have long believed that they are the majority of the US population, which is why they constantly call for the end of the electoral college.  Donald Trump's latest presidential win showed that leftists can't always count on a popular majority to maintain power, but they have an answer for that.

End Of The Two Party System:  This might sound like a rational policy, especially for libertarians.  However, America already has an open party system; there is no law preventing third, fourth or fifth party candidates from participation in elections.  What the DSA wants, at bottom, is a parliamentary system of government similar to governments across Europe.

Why?  Because parliamentary systems are designed to suppress conservative and nationalist movements.  In a parliament, multiple leftist parties will often vie for greater control but whenever conservative movements arise these parties join forces to stonewall the right-wing from any real power.  We have only to look to Europe today to see these suppression tactics in action, from France to Germany to the UK. 

End Of The Senate:  Again, this is something conservatives might agree with out of anger over Senate inaction, but leftists have a far different motive.  They want a massive and expansive congress which would create even more bureaucracy, have the power to choose the president or leader of the executive branch instead of the public, and remove all checks and balances through the three branch framework.  

Expand Or Replace The Supreme Court:  Socialists want a court that is completely subservient to congress and is loaded with leftist judges.  They rage over the idea that judges might interpret constitutional law against the favor of leftist policies.  Want to keep your gun rights or free speech?  Forget it if the DSA ever gets into power.

32-Hour Work Week And Extreme Increases To Minimum Wage:  DSA activists are economically retarded and have no concept of budgets and profit margins.  They think more like pillagers - They see companies with wealth and they want to take it by any means necessary.  The problem is, drastic cuts to productivity and huge wage increases will only lead to the destruction of businesses.

They will have to close up shop or fire a substantial number of workers to survive.  Leftists will then try to force companies stop layoffs.  This level of control is a fantasy and companies will fire people anyway.  The end game will, of course, be socialist calls for the government to nationalize the economy, which will also end in financial collapse as demand greatly outweighs production.

Paid Leave And Free College:  Who is going to pay for a bunch of low IQ dissidents to get degrees in gender fluid studies or underwater basket weaving?  Only the taxpayer.  Who is going to pay for European-style paid leave programs?  Only larger companies will be able to afford it, meaning small businesses will die out. 

Defund The Police And Eliminate The Prison System:  We've already seen how this goes.  When woke activists tried these programs in blue cities across the US, crime skyrocketed.  Social service workers and "community outreach" personnel are utterly incapable of handling the typical criminal.  So, they will do nothing instead and let repeat offenders run rampant. 

Democrat Socialist Co-chair Ashik Siddique: “Our police and prison system is stacked toward persecuting poor people... the language that we have in there is abolishing the police and prison system that protects capital over people.” pic.twitter.com/dg7XzyC828

— America (@america) August 2, 2026

Leftists use the claim that they want more equality of policing against "wealthy criminals" in order to appeal to the American distaste of elitism and corporate crime.  However, this is always pursued in tandem with less policing of "lower class" criminals (usually minorities).  The real reason leftist are so opposed to the criminal justice system is because most of them believe that lower class criminality is justified as an act of social justice against the rich (anyone with more money or success than they have).

Slavery Reparations:  No white American with any sense of dignity is going to pay reparations to black people who have never been slaves.  It's not going to happen.  But, socialists want minorities on their side as a righteous shield and so they will continue to promise reparations for decades to come. 

Feminism For All:  This is perhaps the most destructive goal of all, because it would enshrine feminism as a national ideological pillar.  The remnant of the old "patriarchy" is the only thing keeping the US from total collapse.  Feminists are a cancer on society and the source of most of America's ills. 

It's not just the abortion issue; feminists want women's supremacy, not equality, which means men (mostly white men) acting as the work engine the feeds women's coffers through taxation and government subsidies.  They are also the main source for the rise of the LGBT movement and gender-relativism.  The DSA would joyfully burn western civilization to the ground to achieve a system in which relativism is the standard. 

Open Borders And Path To Citizenship For All Illegals:  Nationalism is the barrier that prevents globalism from reaching its final form.  Borders, national identities and cultural separation are sins in the eyes of the woke cult.  They believe that if they eliminate all of these ideals then they will have no more enemies and they will therefore control the future of the human race forever. 

At this stage it's difficult to say if the DSA platfrom is going to resonate with enough Americans to gain significant momentum.  But, recent polls show 66% of all Democrats support the basic idea of socialism.  By extension, leftists are fuming over the reversal of public opinion on liberalism - They came so close to total control under Obama and under Biden and twice they have been thwarted.  

When leftists lose the first thing they always do is double down.  They do not take accountability and question their own thinking; they assert that they are right, everyone else is wrong or stupid, and they become even more insane.  The Democratic Socialists are a reflection of this mentality.  The more Democrats continue to lose ground, the more the DSA is going to grow because leftists don't care about being right, they only want to win.

Don't be surprised if the socialists rise from the woke grave to wreak havoc in 2028 and beyond.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 14:40

Musk Taunts SpaceX Bears Ahead Of Earnings: "I Tried To Warn Them, But They Just Double Down"

Summary: 

• Musk Warns Bears (Again) 
• Earnings at 1600 ET; Earnings Call at 1630 ET 
• SPCX Short Position Soars 
• SpaceX Earnings Preview: The Five Questions That Matter Most 

Musk Comments On ZH X Post 

Elon Musk has delivered another reminder to bears piling into SPCX shorts that "doubling down" can be a very costly strategy.

The stock is being squeezed nearly 10% higher in the afternoon trading hours in New York, with SpaceX set to report its first earnings as a publicly traded company in just a few hours.

"I try to warn them, but they just double down...," Musk wrote in an X post responding to our earlier report citing proprietary data from S3 Partners.

That data shows 95% of SpaceX shares available to borrow are already out on loan, with short interest amounting to 34% of the float.

I try to warn them, but they just double down … 🤷‍♂️

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 4, 2026

Ahead of SpaceX earnings set to be released at 1600 ET (earnings call at 1630 ET), UBS analyst Christina Dwyer provided clients with color on what to look for ahead of earnings:

SpaceX (SPCX) reports after the closing bell on Tuesday and heads into its first major earnings report as a public company with investor focus increasingly shifting beyond the quarter itself. While revenue and EBITDA performance will matter, the August 6 lockup expiration appears likely to be the bigger near-term driver, opening the door to the first meaningful wave of insider selling just days after results. On the call, management is expected to spend considerable time on AI-related initiatives. Investors will be looking for updates on data center buildouts, potential increases to compute targets and any incremental commentary around Grok deployment timelines. Stronger-than-expected AI revenue could represent one of the more credible upside catalysts. Beyond AI, attention will also center on Starlink and Starship. An updated Starlink subscriber figure could be disclosed, although the market may be hesitant to place significant weight on the metric while the network remains largely supported by V2 Mini satellites. For Starship, investors are likely to focus on execution milestones, launch cadence and any signals around the path toward operational payload launches. Positioning remains an important factor. Hedge funds still screen as notably short, which could amplify upside if AI revenue exceeds expectations or if Starlink economics surprise positively, particularly around ARPU. Even so, the desk believes the lockup expiration is likely to dominate the T+1 reaction and remain the primary stock-specific overhang in the near term.

Polymarket odds of SpaceX beating on quarterly earnings currently stand around 35%.

SPCX Short Hits 34% Of Float Ahead Of Earnings 

SpaceX's first earnings report since its record-setting early June IPO is just hours away and will test whether investors can justify the company's lofty valuation after a vicious post-IPO bear market.

Shares hit a low of $104.83 on Monday, 22.4% below the $135 offering price and 53.5% beneath their June peak of $225, erasing more than $1 trillion in market value. However, the stock rebounded to $119 on Tuesday morning.

Wall Street expects a second-quarter loss of 24 cents per share on $6.8 billion in revenue, though limited financial disclosures have left analysts with little confidence in these estimates.

RBC analyst Ken Herbert outlined the five most important questions investors want answered before the earnings report, which will be released after the bell around 16:00 ET - 16:30 ET will be the earnings call (see report below).

Earlier this morning, we cited S3 Partners' proprietary short data, which shows that 95% of SpaceX stock available to borrow is out on loan, amounting to 34% short interest as a percentage of the float.

Massive SPCX shorting ahead of earnings: 95% of SpaceX stock available to borrow is out on loan, amounting to 34% short interest as percentage of the float: S3 pic.twitter.com/rELoXcyOJu

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 4, 2026

Musk stated last month: "The survival probability of firms who maintain a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low."

The survival probability of firms who maintain a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 17, 2026

Important: Mapping SpaceX's Lockup Expirations: HSBC Calculates When The Shares Could Hit The Market

SpaceX Earnings Preview: The Five Questions That Matter Most 

SpaceX has lost roughly $1.2 trillion in market capitalization since briefly peaking near $2.6 trillion in the first few trading days following its June 12 IPO. After an initial retail-driven buying frenzy, sentiment has sharply reversed, with the stock posting four consecutive weekly declines and now trading nearly 20% below its IPO price.

The steep pullback, driven largely by post-IPO technical selling, comes just ahead of the company's first earnings release as a public company, scheduled for after the market closes Tuesday. The report follows Tesla's quarterly results just weeks earlier.

RBC analyst Ken Herbert offered clients a preview of SpaceX's earnings, claiming that stock selling was driven more by technical factors than by deteriorating fundamentals.

Herbert expects second-quarter revenue to rise 66%, with adjusted EBITDA margins of approximately 30%, citing continued execution across Starship, Starlink, and the company's AI infrastructure. He warned that upcoming insider share lockup expirations are likely to put pressure on the stock.

Ahead of Tuesday's earnings, here's Herbert's view:

SpaceX (SPCX) will report its much-anticipated first public results on August 4. While the stock has significantly lagged since its initial post- IPO surge (down ~52% since its ~$225 peak), we expect lingering technical factors (share unlocks) and macro sentiment to remain headwinds. We believe the current valuation is attractive (under 17x consensus 2028 EBITDA), but we believe investors are focused on long term challenges, looking past near-term strength and strong fundamentals. With this preview we highlight what we believe will be five of the most important questions investors are focused on with the 2Q26 results.

Key points:

SPCX will report its 2Q26 results after the close on August 4. Beyond the actual results (we model 66% 2Q26 revenue growth and ~30% adj. EBITDA margins), the company has achieved several import milestones. The recent V13 Starship test flight was successful (and FAA regulations on re-use and launch cadence are set to ease), and the company continues to win significant government contracts (critical for space access and infrastructure funding). The initial 2026 guide will be a focus, but we believe investors remain overly focused on the mid-term operational and financial challenges, overly discounting the near-term outlook, in our view.

We see five key questions for SPCX heading into the 2Q26 results. First, we believe the upcoming share lockup expirations will remain a headwind (technical challenges). The best remedy is strong execution. Second, we are looking for a more detailed Starship update after the recent successful test flight. Third, investors are focused on SPCX's interest in becoming a full- scale consumer wireless operation (organically or through acquisitions)? Fourth, how is capacity expansion tracking and how will margin compute capacity be allocated? And fifth how would investors think about the software toolkit and SPCX's ability to succeed with higher margin products?

Where have the buyers gone? After the over-subscribed IPO--and the stock trading at under $110--we are often asked about the lack of demand. We believe the lock-up expiration is a material overhang (20% of insider shares are unlocked on August 6, with the incremental ~10% trigger unlikely), followed then by rolling 7% unlocks. The comparisons to Meta (significant under-performance in first year post-IPO) is likely appropriate, but we believe the current price overly discounts the maturity of the Connectivity and Space businesses.

We are maintaining our OP rating and $225 price target. Our PT continues to be based on a SOTP valuation. We believe the upcoming share lockups have been a headwind for stock sentiment, but see them as attractive entry points for investors. Our analysis of META's similar lockups is supportive of LT value in our view. Increasingly, we believe investors are also focused on a potential merger with Tesla, which we detailed in a recent note.

SpaceX 2Q26 Preview: Five of the most important questions investors will focus on in earnings:

Question #1: How has buying demand changed post-the heavily over-subscribed IPO and what impact could the lock-up period have on investor perception?

Answer: We believe the expected timeline for share un-lock is weighing on stock sentiment. The first lock-up period for SpaceX is scheduled for August 6, 2026, two days after the company reports 2Q26 earnings. Then, insiders will be able to sell up to ~20% of their locked-up shares, which equates to roughly ~911M shares. Comparing the company's lock-up expiry schedule to that of META's when it came public in 2012, we would highlight a similar stock performance to that of SPCX. META IPO'ed at $38/share and was down almost (50%) into its first 90-day lock-up expiry. SPCX is currently trading down (19.7%) from its $135 IPO price but is down (52%) from its high of $225.64.

Below, we have detailed the subsequent dates for additional lock-up expiration dates. As laid out in the prospectus, these dates are 70, 90, 105, 120, 135, and 180 days post pricing (June 12th). There is an additional lock-up expiry of 10% of shares on August 6th if SPCX closing price is greater than or equal to 30% above the IPO price of $135 ($175.50) for at least 5 of the 10 consecutive trading days ending on the first earnings release (Aug 4th), however this will not be achieved.

Question #2: What did we learn from the successful V13 Starship launch?

Answer: Last week, SpaceX launched Starship flight 13 (note here) achieving incremental steps with the launch. The launch marked a successful end-to-end mission, hitting all key milestones: the rocket lifted off from Starbase, the Super Heavy booster separated from the upper-stage and flipped for a Gulf of Mexico splashdown (though the landing was rougher than anticipated due to engine restart issues), completed its boostback burn, and the upper-stage climbed to orbit where it deployed 20 Starlink V3 satellites. Starship also successfully relit a Raptor engine in space — confirming the in-orbit restart capability that will be essential for future lunar missions — before re-entering the atmosphere to test its heat shield and splashing down in the Indian Ocean.

We believe SpaceX is likely to attempt to catch the next Starship with the tower on the next launch. After the success of flight 13, Elon Musk suggested that the company would attempt to catch the ship with the mechanical arms on the launch tower as it slows to a hover. The company has already successfully caught the Super Heavy booster but has not yet caught the upper-stage Starship with the launch tower arms. Performing a catch would entail sending Starship on a longer-range trajectory, potentially even into low-Earth orbit, in order to bring the vehicle back to the launch site. We believe formally scheduling the attempt, and successfully catching Starship could represent a positive catalyst for the stock. Given SPCX's plans for reusability of Starship, demonstrating a catch with the launch tower, could help sentiment behind the company's LT aspirations with Starship.

Question #3: What is the level of the company's interest in full-scale consumer wireless operation in the US, and is an acquisition a preferred path?

Answer: As the company is looking to increase its spectrum holdings, investors are weighing the company's opportunities to potentially acquire a carrier, build its own network, or pursue an MVNO route. As carriers are publicly shutting the door to MVNO talks with SpaceX, we view the company's spectrum pursuit as a leverage in the MVNO negotiations. We continue to view that operating a full-scale mobile operations in the highly-competitive US market entails a range of operational challenges, investments, and executive resources. We believe that a potential market share gain from the mobility market will not suffice to justify network and spectrum investments. However, the expansion of IoT, V2X and applications for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles could provide growth opportunities in periods beyond 2028.

Question #4: How is capacity expansion tracking and how will margin compute capacity be allocated?

Answer: We are modeling the company to exit the year at ~2GW of nameplate capacity and would view as the key bottleneck if we could see potentially bigger upside in '27. GOOGL and Anthropic are SPCX's two flagship customers contributing $26B of ARR starting in Q3, however, with those 2 only occupying an estimated 35% of estimated year-end capacity, the company tracking ahead on its deployment schedules would be very bullish. Further, META's commentary from Wednesday spoke to the depth of latent demand for added compute commenting that it had many offers from companies willing to pay a price that was multiples of its cost of compute (META's). This squares with SPCX's partnerships with the GOOGL and Anthropic deals priced at an estimated $50B annually/GW and $30B/GW, respectively.

Worth noting, on GOOGL's earnings call last week, in laying out the strategic rationale for leasing 3p compute to supplement its own, CEO Sundar Pichai gave a theoretical example where he arbitrarily cited renting compute from a partner for 6 months (as an example) at dilutive levels as being an acceptable tradeoff given it could quickly & accretively shift those workloads to its own compute once ready to deploy. We recognize the 6-month comment was only illustrative, but it wouldn't surprise us to hear questions probing at the durability of SPCX's partners. In some ways, we could assert this rhymes a bit with META's current capacity allocation conundrum where at some point, SPCX would need to show strong/accelerating traction with its own intelligence products to support the expected LT accretive mix shift of capacity allocation.

Question #5: How should we think about the software toolkit (Grok, Cursor, Build, Work,etc.c) being able to guide users tohigher-marginn products over time?

Answer: Most recent signs point to SPCX driving strong model training improvements as well as being on track for building out its expanding software & intelligence portfolio. We'd also expect some visibility around Cursor's growth which last reported ARR above $4B on June 8th up from $2B reached back in February. We believe the consensus view is now that owning & controlling the cost of compute is the surest way to achieving a durable moat in AI, though lately, we believe sentiment regarding moat formation at the harness & application layer is also warming as jobs are not being destroyed as was previously anticipated and many high quality companies are emerging at various checkpoints in the industry previously thought destined to be controlled by the verticalized frontier labs, etc. And with the open- weight/model affordability debate appearing more and more of a one-sided in favor of intelligence software being LLM agnostic, the path to creating a sticky user experience with land and expand capabilities remains somewhat less clear (for the industry by the way, not just SPCX). As such, we expect investors to be seeking visibility on technical, financial or any other mile markers for adoption where Cursor should remain at the forefront as it expands from a coding tool to a fuller multi-agent orchestration platform while the Grok platform of products will be coming from behind relative to the other frontier coding & work automation tools.

Herbert maintained an "Outperform" rating and a 12-month price target of $225.

Where the rest of Wall Street sits: 

Important: Mapping SpaceX's Lockup Expirations: HSBC Calculates When The Shares Could Hit The Market

Professional subscribers can read more on SpaceX here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal​​​​​​. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 14:26

Apple Demands Forensics, Injunction On OpenAI - Which Fired Back Hours Later

Apple went to a federal judge on Monday with a sweeping demand in its case against OpenAI - in which two former Apple employees stand accused of funneling confidential information to the ChatGPT maker.

Apple wants an order barring OpenAI, io Products, Chang Liu, and Tang Yew Tan from touching its alleged trade secrets, plus forensic imaging of OpenAI's devices, cloud storage, email, and Slack, including anything that "previously contained" Apple data. The motion landed before Judge Edward J. Davila - yes, the Theranos judge - in the Northern District of California.

OpenAI fired back Monday night in a blog post titled "Apple is getting this wrong," calling the suit "careless, aggressive and oddly personal" and publishing email chains and iMessage screenshots to back it. Both sides have now put their evidence on the table, and the two accounts are irreconcilable.

"Apple is one of the greatest companies of all time, and built a reputation for obsessing over the smallest details. This careless, aggressive and oddly personal lawsuit sadly doesn't live up to that reputation," the company posted. 

As we reported last month, Apple sued on July 10, accusing OpenAI hardware chief Tan - a 24-year Apple veteran and former VP of product design for iPhone, AirPods and Apple Watch - and former senior electrical engineer Liu of running a scheme to funnel confidential hardware information to OpenAI. The complaint says more than 400 former Apple employees now work there. It was randomly assigned to a magistrate judge before Apple declined to consent, sending it to Davila. Apple's statement then: significant evidence had emerged that OpenAI employees wrongfully took its secret information on unreleased technologies. Monday's motion is the escalation, and it is far more specific than the complaint was.

After suing, Apple sent OpenAI a letter offering to stand down on injunctive relief if OpenAI would agree to five things:

1. No future access, acquisition, use, disclosure, or solicitation of Apple trade secret information
2. Halt any ongoing access or use
3. Preserve relevant evidence
4. "Permit Apple's counsel and third-party forensic analysts to inspect, image, and analyze all devices, storage drives, and accounts in OpenAI's possession, custody, or control that contain, or previously contained, any of Apple's confidential, proprietary, or trade secret information"
5. "Search any OpenAI network location where any Apple proprietary and trade secret information may have been transferred or stored"

Per the motion, "OpenAI initially responded that it would be willing to agree to the first three items." Then, over more than two weeks of negotiations between the companies and their outside counsel, talks on items four and five went nowhere: "they could not reach agreement."

Translation: OpenAI would promise not to use Apple's secrets. It would not let Apple's lawyers image its machines. So Apple is now asking a federal judge to order it.

Apple's four-front theory

The motion accuses OpenAI of "misappropriation at the organizational level" running on four tracks - Apple's words:

"(1) using proprietary Apple information to acquire and use still more trade secrets, including from Apple's trusted business partners; (2) exfiltrating Apple's trade secret information directly (through conduct like Mr. Liu's); (3) maintaining ongoing information pipelines from contacts still employed at Apple; and (4) using Apple proprietary information during the recruiting processes to try to extract still more trade secrets from job candidates."

So - Apple is claiming they've got moles in their organization.  

The new evidence in Apple's filing

Beyond what was in the July complaint, the motion alleges:

• One of the eleven additional ex-Apple employees now at OpenAI, "in the hours before his interview with OpenAI, began screenshotting and downloading information related to the highly confidential Apple project about which Mr. Tan inquired during his interview."
• Liu allegedly told Yu-Ting "Alyssa" Peng, still at Apple, that another former Apple employee "fumbled" his answers to Tan's questions about the unannounced product - and helped her prep for her own OpenAI interview on the same subject matter.
• Tan allegedly circulated Apple's own manager exit checklist to a departing employee, writing: "One thing for sure is that Apple will probably walk you out (wasn't like that a year ago but they have been clamping down recently .... Attached below is the manager's checklist so this will give you time to plan."
• OpenAI has allegedly been "circulating to job candidates an Apple document that describes Apple's security processes when an employee leaves the company." Apple's gloss: "OpenAI's goal here is plain - to help departing Apple employees avoid the checks and protections of Apple's exit processes."
• One interviewee was reportedly "surprised" that others brought Apple parts to OpenAI interviews because he "didn't even know we could take those from the office."

On the supplier front, Apple says the Corporate Defendants "directed a trusted Apple partner" - name blacked out in the public version - to run Apple's proprietary metal-finishing process for them, and that they "knew this too because they were involved in this partnership while at Apple." Apple put its own Surface Finishing Manager, Jackie Hughes, under oath on that one, alongside eight other declarants - including James Pooley, who wrote the treatise on trade secrets law, and forensic investigator Daniel Roffman, whose exhibits supply most of the quoted messages.

One wording note: coverage of the July complaint centered on Liu allegedly exploiting a rare authentication bug - a zero-day, per TechCrunch - to reach Apple's network after leaving. This motion frames the five download sessions as exploiting "residual access to Apple's third-party cloud storage." Same alleged outcome either way: thousands of pages out the door between his January exit and April.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 14:00

Palisades Fire Fraud: Man Headed To Prison After Scamming $64K Out Of FEMA

An East Hollywood man is headed to federal prison for a year and a day after collecting more than $64,000 in wildfire disaster relief on a Pacific Palisades home he had no connection to whatsoever.

People gathered on the beach near cleared lots where houses were destroyed in the Palisades Fire at the Pacific Palisades Bowl Mobile Estates in Los Angeles on June 25, 2026. Mario Tama/Getty Images

Delvonne Dashon Johnson, 32, was sentenced on July 31 in Los Angeles and ordered to repay $64,148 to the Federal Emergency Management Agency. He pleaded guilty last year to fraud in connection with major disaster or emergency benefits - a charge that carries a statutory maximum of 30 years.

In February 2025, weeks after the Palisades Fire tore through the coastline, Johnson filed a FEMA claim listing a Pacific Palisades address as a home he owned. FEMA wired him $64,138 later that same month - except, he didn't own the house. Someone else did, and she was living in it.

The fraud unraveled only when the actual homeowner tried to file her own claim. FEMA told her someone had already submitted one on her property's behalf. When investigators interviewed her on April 2, 2025, she told them she had lived at the address since 2015, that it was her primary residence, that she was there when the fire hit, that she had never rented the place to anyone, and that she had never heard of Delvonne Johnson.

Johnson was not working alone - he was one of several people federal prosecutors swept up for running the same play on the same disaster. Deanniah Hogan, 32, of Compton, allegedly posed as a renter at a Palisades home and drew roughly $17,351. Zenalyn McIntre, 38, of Sherman Oaks, allegedly submitted a fabricated utility bill and a driver's license listing a different address, and received about $25,229. Hedeshia Robertson, 36, of Lakewood, pleaded guilty after obtaining some $24,899. Another defendant allegedly claimed a nonexistent Altadena address as her destroyed primary residence and collected $23,441, plus two FEMA-booked hotel stays. Jaime Arturo Carrillo, 48, pleaded guilty after claiming property damage and utility disruption at a South Los Angeles address roughly 20 miles from either fire.

The pattern extends well beyond Los Angeles County. In June, a Honolulu man was sentenced to two years for conspiring to submit false FEMA claims tied to both the Lahaina fire and the Pacific Palisades fire, with a co-defendant posing as his Maui landlord before turning around and claiming to have lived in Pacific Palisades herself. The pair collected more than $60,000. He then filed fabricated flight records with the court and picked up an obstruction charge on top.

Victims of the Eaton and Palisades fires could qualify for a one-time $750 FEMA payment, up to $43,600 in other-needs assistance covering personal property, transportation and medical costs, and housing assistance for as long as 18 months. Homeowners were eligible for up to another $43,600 in repair money. Money that moves fast enough to help people who just lost everything moves fast enough to reach people who lost nothing.

The two fires ignited on Jan. 7, 2025, burned close to 60,000 acres, destroyed more than 16,000 structures, and killed 30 people.

For claiming a slice of the recovery money set aside for those people, Johnson drew 12 months and one day.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 13:20

Former FBI Agent Charged With Stealing Nearly $1 Million In Crypto, Asked ChatGPT How To Hide It

Authored by Jesse Hamilton via CoinDesk.com,

A supervising U.S. FBI agent who worked in intelligence at the national headquarters has been arrested and accused in a federal court filing of stealing more than $1 million in cryptocurrency.

The high-level special agent, identified as Patrick Steven Yarmoch, allegedly turned himself in to agency colleagues, reporting that he dug crypto keys from FBI systems to make as many as a dozen transfers to himself from accounts tied to foreign individuals he'd investigated, according to an August 1 account filed with the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia.

“During the afternoon of July 28, 2026, Yaroch contacted DOJ Employee 1 via Signal and requested to meet to discuss personal matters,” prosecutors said in the complaint.

“Upon meeting DOJ Employee 1 at FBI headquarters, Yaroch immediately started to break down as he told his story.”

Yarmoch — who held a "top secret" security clearance — had worked in counterintelligence, specifically with an investigative unit that focused on an unnamed "adversary nation," according to the court filing, which noted he was suspended for a couple of days before being fired and arrested on July 31.

The resident of Ashburn, Virginia, had worked as a supervisory special agent at FBI headquarters in Washington, specifically in its counterintelligence and espionage division. He'd previously worked for years out of Boston, where he'd been in a national-security unit investigating the adversary nation referenced in the court filing.

In handling the digital assets, Yarmoch was said to use accounts with Kraken and also Suilend, the decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem for the Sui blockchain, via a Slush wallet.

The FBI searches of his computer and phone records revealed some of his recent questions to AI apps, including, "If you had a bucket of money (around $1 million) and you wanted to leave the USA and become a resident or citizen of an EU country, what would you do?”

To which the app allegedly recommended Portugal as a favored destination.

Investigators also located travel plans for Yarmoch and his family to go to Portugal next month, and located the power of attorney forms for Portugal.

“Yaroch stated he was not planning to funnel money into Portugal,” the complaint said.

“Yaroch told FBI WF Agents that his family had a trip planned to Portugal in September 2026 to meet friends. Yaroch realized he might not be able to attend the trip but stated he hoped his wife and child would still go on the trip.”

Later searches included whether Americans need a visa when connecting through Turkey and help drafting a follow-up email about a job opportunity and life in Greece.

He was also said to take recent trips to Germany, and Grenada that he hadn't reported internally, in violation of FBI rules.

Yarmoch was placed in detention in Alexandria, Virginia.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 13:00

Undrain The Swamp: JOLTS Miss Despite Shocking Surge In Government Job Openings To Biden Admin Levels

After five straight months of JOLTS beats, including two blowout prints for April and May and zero misses since 2025...

... it was inevitable that the BLS would eventually pot out a disappointment, if only to preserve the myth of "accurate data." 

That's what happened today when in the latest JOLTS report, the US dept of labor reported that in June the US had 7.359 million job openings, down 178K from the (downward revised) May total of 7.537 million, and below the median estimate of 7.454 million.

Where did the openings come from? According to the BLS the number of job openings increased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+97,000) and in federal government. Job openings decreased in wholesale trade (-74,000), nondurable goods manufacturing (-55,000), and mining and logging (-9,000). 

Of note, Federal government soared by 39K from 100K to 139K, the highest print not only of 2026 but the highest print going back all the way to October 2024 (i.e., when Biden was still president). 

The June drop in job openings was juxtaposed with an overall drop in June employment, which meant that after 9 months of labor surplus which ended in March, we now have a third consecutive month of more job openings than unemployed workers, and in June the surplus was 265K, the biggest surplus since the 566K in Jan 2025, and a concerning development for the broader labor market which according to most other measures continues to fire on all cylinders.

The latest JOLTS report also means that after falling back to 0.9x in March, in April the ratio of job openings rose over 1.0x and was the highest since January 2025.

While the job openings number was weaker than expected for the first time this year, in June we saw continued strength in both hires and quits, In June the number of Quits - or the "take his job and shove it" indicator - rose by almost 100K to 5.252MM from 5.348MM indicating a modest rise in confidence that better jobs await elsewhere, at the same time hires also rose by about 80K, from 3.153MM to 3.232MM, and followed a 110K increase in May.

It goes without saying that job openings sliding while hires are jumping, and more people are voluntarily leaving their jobs, while payrolls are growing (as we will find out on Friday), leads one to scratch their head just what is going on here, besides data massaging of course.

In any case, since this hires number feeds directly into the payrolls calculations (after netting out separations) this explains why the May payrolls report jumped by 57K, even as the JOLTS implied number was far weaker than that. 

Overall, this was a weak mixed JOLTS report, with weakness in openings offset by strength in hires and quits, but most notably, the surge in government job openings as Trump appears to backtrack on even more of his promises, and shows that after some significant strength in the early part of of 2026, US labor market is now hitting an air pocket and this could translate into a notable miss in this Friday jobs report. Then again, it is common knowledge that JOLTS lags the payrolls report by a month, which is why it gives us little insight into what Friday's jobs report will be, although if the hires less separations dataset is any indication, it suggests that the July print will come well below expectations. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 11:45

CLARITY Act Failure Could Send Crypto Valuations Lower: Bernstein

Authored by Zoltan Vardai via CoinTelegraph.com,

The odds of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act’s (CLARITY) passage are dwindling as the US Senate is scheduled to begin summer recess at the end of this week, threatening another leg down for cryptocurrency valuations, according to wealth manager Bernstein.

Bernstein said that the Senate’s failure to pass the legislation could trigger an immediate negative “industry knee-jerk reaction,” which may result in another leg down for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.

“From a tactical standpoint, we expect the crypto market to bottom and start showing momentum towards late Q3 and early Q4 prior to the mid-terms,” Bernstein analysts wrote in a Monday report shared with Cointelegraph.

At the same time, however, the analysts said that Senate failure to pass the legislation may bring more proactive policy support from regulators, including the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which may accelerate rulemaking initiatives under Project Crypto.

Project Crypto is a regulatory initiative first announced by SEC Chairman Paul Atkins in July 2025, which was later expanded into a joint staff initiative between the SEC and CFTC in September 2025. The initiative aims to create a workable regulatory framework for digital assets using existing agency authority while Congress finalizes crypto market legislation under the CLARITY Act.

Bernstein said that the two agencies could provide more interpretive releases tied to the taxonomy of tokens, clear rules around decentralized finance (DeFi) and accelerate the innovation exemption for issuing tokens that would be exempted from securities status during a finite period.

CLARITY Act odds decline to 31%

Bernstein’s skepticism is supported by prediction market traders who are betting against the passage of the CLARITY Act before the end of 2026.

Odds of the legislation’s passage before the end of the year are now at 27%, down 11ppt in the past week and down 13ppt in the past month, according to Polymarket, which shows about $3.7 million has been wagered on that prediction.

Meanwhile, White House officials are reportedly weighing a bipartisan ethics counterproposal received on Thursday, following weeks of negotiations between Republican Senator Thom Tillis and Arizona Democrat Ruben Gallego.

The proposal would enable state attorneys general to sue the Department of Justice if it fails to enforce ethics laws against federal officials, three sources familiar with the matter told crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett.  

The CLARITY Act aims to establish the first regulatory framework for digital assets in the US, but it has been met with pushback from the banking industry, which argued that the current draft would allow crypto firms to offer yields on stablecoins without facing the same requirements as traditional financial institutions. 

On June 26, Galaxy Digital cut its odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 50%, warning that the US Senate is running out of time to move the crypto market structure bill before its August recess. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 11:30

Waymo Robotaxi Crash Rate 68% Lower Than Human Drivers, Study Finds

Though they've have racked up quite a few troubling anecdotes on America's roads, Waymo robotaxis have achieved a crash rate that's far lower than what's observed when humans are driving, according to a recent study published by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. A private scientific organization funded by insurance companies, IIHS is regarded by many as a superior font of accurate scientific conclusions compared to the government-run and lobbyist-vulnerable National Highway Transportation Safety Administration. 

According to the July IIHS study, "Rise of the Machines: Crash Experiences of Highly Automated Vehicles and Human Drivers," Waymo vehicles in autonomous mode posted "police-reportable crash involvement rates" fully 68% lower than human-operated vehicles in the same areas and years. Researchers studied crash rates in Austin, Los Angeles, Phoenix and San Francisco. Importantly, the IIHS studied data from 2021 to 2024; to the extent Waymo has improved its programming, the current relative performance may be even better. 

The Waymo edge was highest in Phoenix and Los Angeles (76% and 71% lower crash rates, respectively). San Francisco's Waymos posted a 35% lower crash rate. In a bit of a headscratcher in terms of the being a huge outlier, Waymo had a 4% higher crash rate in Austin. The study's authors note that the sample size in Austin was smaller for both Waymo and human drivers. 

Dozens of empty Waymos clogged a small street in an Atlanta neighborhood, preventing residents from leaving or returning to their homes 

Waymo vehicles really shine in regard to one type of accidents where human-driver inattention looms particularly large: The robotaxis' rate of rear-ending other cars and trucks was 91% lower than what's seen with human drivers. It's rate of being rear-ended was 40% lower; here, the result may spring from human inattention that leads to last-second hard braking that catches trailing vehicles by surprise. Waymos also sparkled in single-vehicle crashes, as the robotaxis experienced 85% fewer such crashes overall, and 81% fewer single-crash accidents with injuries. 

The encouraging IIHS report comes after Mountain View, California-headquartered Waymo has established a history of eyebrow-raising incidents that we've been all too happy to report on. In two of the more recent episodes... 

• In June, Waymo recalled its entire fleet (then comprising 3,871 vehicles) after some of the robotaxis drove dangerously in construction zones. Incidents included speeding, driving past ramp-closure signs, and weaving between traffic cones. The company said it would tweak its 5th-generation Automated Driving System (ADS) software so it would recognize and act appropriately in construction zones. 
• In May, 50 empty Waymo SUVs flooded a small residential street in northwest Atlanta in just an hour. Video captured a thicket of the vehicles facing both directions and simultaneously trying to figure out how to proceed.

So far, nothing as spectacular as how Douglas Quaid's wild robotaxi ride will end in 2084: 

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 11:15

The Bond-Salesman-In-Chief Has Fired The First Shot Of The Capital Market War That Follows The Trade War

By Benjamin Picton, senior market strategist at Rabobank

US equity markets approached record highs yesterday as traders basked in the afterglow of Donald Trump’s decision to (again) call off Iran strikes in favor of diplomatic efforts. The S&P500 closed almost 1.5% higher and the NASDAQ 100 was up by almost 1.8%. Sovereign yields pushed lower across Europe and North America with Treasuries likely encouraged by comments from Japanese Finance Minister Katayama yesterday that Japan intended to tap the Fed’s FIMA facility to defend the Yen in the future, thereby avoiding the necessity to sell Treasuries to fund Yen purchases.

The front Brent crude future fell by more than 7%, despite the fact that there is no confirmation of material progress in loosening restrictions on global energy flows. ICE gasoil futures declined by more than 8.5% despite Russia’s ongoing diesel export ban, continued Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure, the Houthis’ recent decision to spread the Iran conflict to Saudi oil infrastructure in the Red Sea and low water levels in the Rhine disrupting energy shipping and forcing freight rates higher. Similarly, Singapore gasoil spot prices were down by almost 11% yesterday. On those figures you would think all of the problems in product markets are solved. This again highlights the capriciousness of markets; it was only a few weeks ago that I was reading articles making straight-faced suggestions of an emerging oil glut.

While Hormuz certainly isn’t a Waterloo moment for Donald Trump just yet, he is obviously keen to find an offramp that satisfies key US strategic objectives of re-opening the strait without tolls, curtailing Iran’s nuclear program and regional influence, and – if at all possible – pushing Gulf states into the Abraham Accords and normalization of relations with Israel. Some progress has been made on the latter, but progress on the former two objectives continues to elude, giving this conflict more than a whiff of Middle-Eastern quagmires past.

While the Commander in Chief plays Battleship in the Gulf, the self-described bond salesman in chief, Scott Bessent, has possibly fired the first shot of the capital market war that we have long warned would follow the trade war and the now numerous proxy wars. All of these developments can be contextualized through the strategic competition between the United States and China, with Russia, the European Union, Iran, the GCC, Japan, South Korea, North Korea, Israel, Australia and others playing the role of proxies, satellites, supplicants, vassals, junior partners and bit-players to the two great powers. In this respect, the US Treasury’s support of the Japanese Ministry of Finance and the BOJ in defending the Yen may have been a financial Fort Sumter moment.

In supporting Japan’s efforts to defend its currency to stave off imported inflation pressures the USA not only takes out insurance against rising borrowing costs for the US Treasury while buying up assets that Bessent considers to be undervalued relative to Japan’s improving fundamentals, it also relieves competitive pressure on US manufacturers (currently in rude health according to yesterday’s manufacturing ISM) and pulls Japan closer into the US’ strategic orbit.

This is important as the Trump administration views Japan as an important partner for countering China’s dominance in industrial production – particularly shipbuilding, steel manufacturing and rare earths processing – and both partners have an interest in preventing Japan’s reflating economy from becoming an outlet for China’s production surplus. Might we see further Japanese restrictions on Chinese imports? Could the US decision to sell EUR (even in relatively small amounts) rather than USD have been a subtle message to Europeans about US policy capabilities?

Coordinated intervention between the Japanese Ministry of Finance and the US Treasury to manage the value of the Yen is perhaps the first concrete sign of the emergence of a new monetary order as foreshadowed by RaboResearch Global Strategist Michael Every several years ago in FX Wars. The post Bretton Woods system of mostly free-floating fiat with a constellation of international treaties intended to discourage state intervention and competitive devaluation has been on borrowed time due to the rise of neo-mercantilist China and the QE-driven currency devaluations of the 2010s.

Cooperation on managed exchange rates (and broader capital market dynamics) among allies may offer a path forward. However, intra-bloc accords only work if inter-bloc trade faces substantial barriers. Naturally, the US does not want to see a situation where the global role of the Dollar is undermined by developed market central banks holding larger and more diversified FX reserves, so watch as a system of “you scratch my back, I scratch yours” dollar swaplines emerges with common trade restrictions or other boons for US strategic interests as a kind of quid pro quo. Indeed, we have already seen this happen with the UAE’s decision to leave OPEC+ and coordinate with Israel on military matters following the extension of dollar swaplines.

So, once again we are witnessing momentous structural changes unfolding with geopolitical tensions forcing the pace. While it is certainly relevant and important, one shouldn’t be too captivated by the up/down moves of this week. What really matters is the signal for the medium to longer term.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 11:00

Bezos To Dump $4 Billion In Amazon Stock After Surge As Cramer Calls Sale A "Buzzkill"

Amazon founder Jeff Bezos plans to sell 15 million shares worth roughly $4.07 billion under a prearranged trading plan, according to a Form 144 regulatory filing. The planned sale comes after Amazon shares surged about 25% over the last several trading sessions.

The shares, which Bezos acquired as founder's stock in 1994, will be sold through Morgan Stanley Smith Barney. The filing showed no stock sales by Bezos during the previous three months, although he donated 220,200 shares to nonprofits in May.

The stock's rally follows last Thursday's earnings report, which showed solid AWS growth and profitability despite an outlook that disappointed investors. Revenue reached $200.61 billion, beating the Bloomberg consensus estimate, while earnings of $5.75 per share exceeded the $1.82 consensus estimate.

Meanwhile, CNBC's Jim Cramer called the planned sale "a buzzkill."

Cant begrudge Bezos for selling $4 billion shares...but what a buzzkill

— Jim Cramer (@jimcramer) August 3, 2026

Here are the latest Amazon insider transactions:

Bezos will still own 880.95 million Amazon shares after the sale, a stake currently valued at roughly $250 billion.

Perhaps Bezos needs another multibillion-dollar cash infusion for Blue Origin, his capital-intensive rocket company, which continues to trail Elon Musk's SpaceX.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 10:40