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Health Officials Urge States To End Mercury-Containing Dental Fillings

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Federal health officials on July 22 encouraged state Medicaid officials to stop covering dental fillings containing mercury.

Health Secretary Robert Kennedy Jr. on Capitol Hill in Washington on April 22, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) sent letters to the Medicaid director in each state urging them to phase out mercury-containing dental fillings by restricting or ending state Medicaid coverage for dental amalgam, fillings that combine mercury and other materials to treat cavities.

"Americans should feel confident that the health care they receive is always working in their best interest," CMS Administrator Dr. Mehmet Oz said in a statement.

"That's why we're urging state Medicaid programs to end the use of mercury-containing dental fillings. This is a straightforward and meaningful step that reflects our shared commitment to safe, higher quality care for all Americans and supports the Trump Administration's broader goal to Make America Healthy Again."

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. added: "Mercury has no place in the mouths of our children or in modern American health care. For decades, we have relied on a material that contains one of the world's most toxic heavy metals when safe, effective mercury-free alternatives are widely available. The Make America Healthy Again agenda means confronting outdated practices that needlessly expose Americans to toxic substances."

The letters to the state officials noted that the Indian Health Service, which provides healthcare to American Indians, announced in February that it would end the use of mercury-containing fillings by 2027, citing "health concerns regarding mercury exposure."

Researchers have found signs that amalgam can cause health problems, including higher mercury concentrations in the blood, and patients attributing health problems to the amalgam.

The Minamata Convention on Mercury, signed by the United States in 2013, advises countries to restrict the use of amalgam and identify alternatives, and some countries have already phased out the fillings.

Certain groups such as the American Dental Association say amalgam fillings are safe.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration says there is limited data on long-term health outcomes of amalgam in young children, and advises that populations such as children under 6 may face a greater health risk due to mercury exposure.

Alternatives to amalgam fillings include composite resin, porcelain, and glass ionomer.

The International Academy of Oral Medicine and Toxicology says that composite fillings are as durable as amalgam and are the most frequently chosen alternative because the white coloring matches the teeth well, and the cost is moderate.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/24/2026 - 18:25

Death Toll Revised Lower: Trump Admin Accused Of Playing Politics With Iran War Casualties

The US administration and Department of War has just reduced the total number of American service members killed during the Iran war from 18 to 14.

Removing the four most recent deaths, which occurred in Jordan and in Iraq last week, appears to be politically-driven as a way to keep official casualties lower related to President Trump's decision to go to war. That's what's being widely alleged anyway.

The NY Times, which reported the significant change, wrote that "Three military officials said that one reason behind the change was that the Trump administration decided to remove four service members killed this past weekend from the list — three in Jordan and one in northern Iraq — because their deaths occurred after President Trump declared a cease-fire in the war in April." 

UPI/Shutterstock

The report lays out that—

• On Wednesday, the Pentagon reported on its casualties website that a total of 18 American service members had been killed during the war in Iran.
• By Thursday, the Defense Department had lowered that number, reporting that 14 American troops had been killed in the war.

The White House is being widely accused of using troop deaths to play cheap political tricks for the sake maintaining image, and ahead of the November midterms and as voters increasingly turn negative on the dragged-out war.

For example, some scathing commentary out of Rolling Stone says the following:

Soldiers die in war. But ever since the death toll in Vietnam broke a generation's appetite for war, the American public has been uniquely sensitive to casualty counts as a result of our military actions abroad.

We venerate fallen servicemembers as heroes, no matter how just the conflict they died in was. But now, Donald Trump's administration is reportedly trying to say that some deaths don't count.

On Thursday, the Pentagon's official roll of servicemember deaths as a result of the Iran war suddenly changed, with four names dropping off the list, bringing the total number from 18 down to 14. The New York Times reported that the change came as a result of a direct action, with the Trump administration declaring that four servicemembers who were killed last weekend at bases in Jordan and Iraq don't count toward the tally of deaths in the Iran conflict, as they occurred after he had declared the conflict to be at a ceasefire in late April.

This kind of paradoxical, absurdist logic is core to the administration's messaging on the Iran war. We are at war, but not technically at war, because there is a cease fire. However, neither side has ceased firing; four American soldiers just died. However, because there was a cease fire, their deaths cannot be attributed to the Iran war, which is not technically an active conflict, despite the conflict being very active.

Sean Parnell, the chief Pentagon spokesperson, on Thursday claimed on X that "the site errors on the Defense Casualty Analysis System were due to a temporary data disruption" and the "site anomalies are currently being resolved in coordination with the Military Services."

US defense officials explained that "their deaths occurred after Trump announced a ceasefire in the war in April."

This was after the Pentagon website that informs the public about the dead and wounded had clearly changed with no explanation. But the bottom line is that at the start of the week the four service members' deaths were listed under Operation Epic Fury but by Thursday their names were dropped. By close of Friday the website has remained uncorrected, displaying the lower number.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/24/2026 - 18:00

Why Were Americans Funding Jobs For Transgender Workers In Nepal?

Authored by David Manney via PJ Media,

Former HIV outreach worker and biological male Rubi Lama lost a job he'd held for nine years when U.S. funding vanished from a health program in Nepal. He tested people, counseled those at risk, and helped sex workers avoid infection.

AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta

Months later, unable to find other work, he joined them along a highway outside Hetauda.

Fox News:

An Associated Press social media post about transgender aid workers in Nepal turning to sex work after losing their jobs due to U.S. foreign aid cuts sparked a wave of conservative backlash, with critics arguing the video made the case for defunding USAID rather than saving it.

The AP post said that in Nepal, where "a conservative culture leaves openly transgender people with few legal job options," around 100 LGBTQ aid workers left jobless by U.S. funding cuts had turned to sex work to survive. An accompanying video focused on Rubi Lama, a former HIV outreach worker who said USAID-funded programs had provided free condoms, lubricant and HIV-prevention medication before the cuts.

"When USAID funding was there, condoms were free, lubricant was also distributed ... for free," Lama said in the video, adding that HIV treatments, including PrEP, were also available without cost. "But, now it is gone."

His story is painful on a human scale; it also raises a question many Americans are asking: why was the United States expected to keep paying his salary?

Lama worked for Friends Hetauda, part of a network connected to the Blue Diamond Society. The society received 85% of its funding from USAID, operated 20 clinics, and employed 350 people.

Associated Press:

For nine years, Lama - who is transgender - had devoted her life to conducting HIV outreach in Nepal's marginalized communities, including the LGBTQ+ sex workers who wait by this highway each night. But after the United States slashed its foreign aid funding last year, Lama and more than 280,000 aid workers worldwide found themselves out of a job.

In impoverished Nepal, where a conservative culture leaves openly transgender people with few legal job options, the impact on aid workers' lives was particularly crushing. Starving and scared, Lama and around 100 other LGBTQ+ aid workers left jobless by the funding cuts have turned to sex work to survive, walking the streets alongside the very people they once fought so hard to help.

When the money stopped, 262 employees lost their jobs, and the organization says 35% to 45% of those former workers later entered sex work.

The clinics provided HIV tests, condoms, counseling, antiretroviral drugs, and PrEP. More than 1,200 clients reportedly lost access to PrEP after the shutdown. Those are real health services, and the people affected aren't punchlines.

The political reaction followed a familiar script: President Donald Trump cut foreign aid, vulnerable workers suffered, and American taxpayers were cast as villains for refusing to continue the arrangement.

Trump's Executive Order:

Section 1. Purpose. The United States foreign aid industry and bureaucracy are not aligned with American interests and in many cases antithetical to American values. They serve to destabilize world peace by promoting ideas in foreign countries that are directly inverse to harmonious and stable relations internal to and among countries.

Sec. 2. Policy. It is the policy of United States that no further United States foreign assistance shall be disbursed in a manner that is not fully aligned with the foreign policy of the President of the United States.

Sec. 3. (a) 90-day pause in United States foreign development assistance for assessment of programmatic efficiencies and consistency with United States foreign policy. All department and agency heads with responsibility for United States foreign development assistance programs shall immediately pause new obligations and disbursements of development assistance funds to foreign countries and implementing non-governmental organizations, international organizations, and contractors pending reviews of such programs for programmatic efficiency and consistency with United States foreign policy, to be conducted within 90 days of this order. The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) shall enforce this pause through its apportionment authority.

Critics spoke as though Washington had fired public employees in Ohio rather than ended overseas grants in Nepal.

Foreign aid can serve American interests; HIV prevention can reduce disease, improve stability, and protect people who travel across borders. Compassion also has limits when one country becomes the permanent source of salaries and program funding for organizations half a world away.

Nepal has a national government; it has health agencies, wealthy residents, international charities, and neighboring countries with their own interest in regional health.

Fox News:

USAID later told partners to pause new funding obligations and issue stop-work orders or suspensions for existing awards, while critics have said the review led to major disruptions, staff reductions and the cancellation of critical foreign-assistance awards.

But Federalist editor-in-chief Mollie Hemingway argued the AP post exposed misplaced priorities, particularly among the media, saying the outlet presented U.S. tax dollars flowing to a "trans Nepalese job protection program" as though it was a good use of public money.

"The AP announces that your hard-earned tax dollars were flowing to a trans Nepalese job protection program as if that was an even remotely good use of your money," Hemingway wrote in a post on X. "AP is sick Democrat propaganda."

"How dare Elon cut USAID funds to the Nepalese trans sex worker community," quipped Republican activist Jack Posobiec.

Where were they when an organization depended on Washington for 85% of its budget?

President Trump ordered a review of foreign assistance on Jan. 20, 2025, requiring programs to prove they were efficient and aligned with U.S. foreign policy.

The order didn't ban all aid; it required justification before the money kept flowing.

The old system trained foreign groups to build programs around American checks, and when the checks stopped, the collapse was immediate. A model that leaves hundreds of employees with no local funding, no transition plan, and no replacement support was never sustainable.

American families face medical bills, housing costs, layoffs, and taxes of their own. They can care about Rubi Lama without accepting lifelong responsibility for his paycheck. They can support targeted HIV treatment without giving every foreign NGO a permanent claim on the U.S. Treasury.

The outrage over Nepal makes President Trump's case for him. Foreign aid should have a clear purpose, measurable results, shared costs, and an exit plan.

Sympathy can't replace accountability.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/24/2026 - 17:40

Black Dems Up In Arms As Party Considers Giving Nevada First 2028 Primary

It's always fun watching the party that cherishes identity politics being torn apart by identity politics. 

That's once again the case, as the Democratic National Committee endeavors to lay out its sequence of primaries for the 2028 presidential race. As a DNC panel convenes in Washington this week, there's substantial momentum behind the idea of taking the coveted "first in the nation" spot away from 25% black South Carolina, and handing it over to 31% Hispanic Nevada. Party sources tell the New York Times that the black vs brown infighting over the possibility is getting increasingly nasty. 

If the switch happens, South Carolina's tenure in the top slot will have only lasted one election cycle. After a decades-long tradition that had both Republicans and Democrats kicking off their presidential primary balloting in Iowa and New Hampshire, the Biden team maneuvered the DNC into putting South Carolina first in 2024, after the state's black voters played an outsize role in helping Biden win the 2020 nomination. The move was made easier by the fact that, when it was setting the 2024 calendar, the Democratic Party still had a strong, post-2020 case of Black Lives Matter fever, and was fixated on pandering to blacks at every turn. 

Christale Spain, who became South Carolina Democrats' first black party chair in 2023, says putting Nevada first would be disrespectful to blacks (Meg Kinnard/AP)

“If Nevada gets elevated over South Carolina, it would be because of their Latino vote,” South Carolina Democratic Party Chair Christale Spain told the New York Times. “So you would then be telling black voters that you matter less than brown voters. And I refuse to believe that our party wants to send any type of message like that.” Of course, a corollary of Spain's assertion is that putting Nevada second tells brown voters that they matter less than black voters.

It's increasingly apparent that America's Latino population is a critical swing vote. Factor in Nevada's status as one of the swing states, and it's easy to see why Democrats are rethinking the batting order -- especially when South Carolina is a solid red state that hasn't given its electoral votes to a Democrat since Jimmy Carter won 56% of the vote in 1976.  

Nevada Democratic Party chair Daniele Monroe-Moreno says putting her swing state first would be a smart strategic move

In an interesting twist to this colorful controversy, the indignant black female South Carolina chair is facing off with the determined black female chair of the Nevada Democrats. “I’m a Black mama whose children are Black and Latino, Native American," Daniele Monroe-Moreno told the Times. Nevada is about 11% black, slightly lagging blacks' 13% share of the US population.  

Reverend Al Sharpton -- yes, he's still alive, though not all that relevant -- is among those decrying the idea that South Carolina might be told to give up its seat at the front of the metaphoric primary bus. "Pushing South Carolina to the back of the line would be a slap in the face to the very voters who’ve kept this party alive," he said on Thursday.  

The 2024 Electoral College map: Nevada was part of Trump's sweep of all seven swing states, but the state went to Biden in 2020

Some black leftists are ridiculing the uproar. "I'm sorry, this is absurd," tweeted Briahna Joy Gray, former press secretary for the 2020 Bernie Sanders Campaign, adding: 

"Democrats do not respect the Black vote because they don't have to -- Black Americans vote blue no matter who. The *most* Black voters ever get are rhetorical gestures like promises to pass the George Floyd Act (which never happened) or Junteenth (hooray). By contrast, Latinos are swing voters & consequently will be courted. Moreover, NV is a winnable state for Dems -- SC is not -- so it makes sense to prioritize it."

Other states are making a dark-horse bid to go first, including substantially-Latino (49%) New Mexico and substantially-black (19%) Virginia. Democrats may put off a final decision until after the midterms, to avoid throwing cold water on the voter enthusiasm of whatever states end up losing the race to go first. 

Gray questioned the sincerity of black South Carolina pols who are expressing outrage over the prospect of losing their slot: "The scramble to keep SC as the first state to vote in the primary is 100% about SC local politicians trying to preserve their newfound endorsement power & influence. It bears no relationship to the interests of Black Americans in SC or anywhere else."

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/24/2026 - 17:20

Confirmed Deaths In Ebola Outbreak Eclipse 1,000

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

The Ebola outbreak spreading in Africa has killed more than 1,000 people, authorities said on July 23.

A doctor provides care to a patient with Ebola virus disease at an Ebola treatment center in Bunia, Congo, on July 13, 2026. Benediction Murhabazi /AFP via Getty Images

The number of confirmed deaths from Ebola in Congo in recent months hit 1,033, Congolese authorities said.

Forty percent of the confirmed 2,536 patients have died.

Another 506 people have recovered, and 738 are currently in isolation or being treated in hospitals, according to officials in the central African country.

"Health teams are pursuing surveillance operations, case management, and contact tracing to contain the spread of the disease," Congo's Ministry of Communications said.

Teams have been able to track the contacts of 77 percent of patients in a bid to control the outbreak, much lower than the 90 percent threshold suggested as ideal by the World Health Organization.

The only other deaths confirmed in the outbreak are two in Uganda, which has not recorded any new cases in several weeks.

The outbreak was detected in Congo in mid-May, although it is believed to have started weeks or even months earlier. It is caused by the Bundibugyo virus, a rare type of ebolavirus for which there are no approved treatments or vaccines.

"These are people dying. They are dying because we don't have vaccines, we don't have medicine, we don't have funding," Dr. Jean Kaseya, director-general of the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said during a summit in Ghana on Wednesday.

The Africa CDC and other entities have been seeking and have received tens of millions in funding from the United States and other countries to combat the outbreak, but say they need more funds and resources.

World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told reporters earlier in July that the outbreak was "continuing to outpace the response" and that the response plan needed more than $400 million in additional funds.

Ebola was first identified in 1976 after an outbreak in modern-day Congo. The deadliest Ebola outbreak on record ran for two years starting in 2014 in West Africa, causing 28,610 cases and killing 11,308 people.

That outbreak was caused by the Zaire ebolavirus.

The current outbreak is growing at a much faster rate than that outbreak did, according to Kaseya.

U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention scientists said in modeling projections released in June that absent "large-scale and sustained public health interventions," the outbreak centered in Congo could become as large as the 2014-2016 outbreak.

"Rapid identification of cases, contact tracing, isolation and treatment of persons with [Ebola], community engagement, and use of safe and dignified burial for persons who die from [Ebola] are necessary to control the outbreak," they said.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/24/2026 - 17:00

LA Is Finally Cleaning Up Its Infamous "Graffiti Towers" Before The Olympics Arrives

For years, the unfinished Oceanwide Plaza towers have stood as one of downtown Los Angeles' most notorious landmarks. Not because of their architecture, but because of what they became. After construction stalled, the empty high-rises were transformed into a massive canvas for graffiti artists, attracting vandals, urban explorers and thrill-seekers who repeatedly scaled the abandoned buildings.

Covered in colorful tags and visible across the city's skyline, the so-called "graffiti towers" have come to symbolize both the project's collapse and the city's struggle to deal with one of its most recognizable eyesores. But now Los Angeles' infamous graffiti-covered Oceanwide Plaza towers are expected to be cleaned within the next 90 days under a commitment from the project's proposed new owner, according to Mayor Karen Bass' office, according to NBC Los Angeles. 

NBC reports that with the 2028 Olympics approaching, KPC Development Co. has agreed to remove the graffiti from the unfinished skyscrapers, allowing the city to withdraw its objection to the project's revised bankruptcy plan so cleanup can begin before construction resumes.

If the bankruptcy court approves the sale, KPC plans to complete the long-stalled development, which is slated to include apartments, a hotel, restaurants and retail space. The company will pay for the graffiti removal, city officials said.

Residents who have long complained about the vandalized towers welcomed the announcement, saying the cleanup is an important step toward improving downtown Los Angeles before the Olympics.

And hey...cleaning up the towers is a start. Now the city just has to get around to cleaning up the rest of Los Angeles before the world arrives for the Olympics.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/24/2026 - 16:40

"I'm Not Racist": Musk Slams Snooty Leftist Interviewer, Says "I Support The Normal People"

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

During a terse exchange, Elon Musk told the virulently leftist editor-in-chief of The Economist that civil war in Britain is inevitable on current trends - driven by rapid migration of people whose beliefs clash with Western civilisation.

In response, Zanny Minton Beddoes accused Musk of supporting the "far right," and amplifying racists.

Musk called the coming confrontation a "reckoning," rejected the racist smear, and turned the tables on an interviewer determined to paint secure borders and opposition to rape and murder as fringe extremism.

When the interviewer insisted she lived in Britain and called the claim "nonsense," he shot back: "You live a very closeted existence!"

He expanded:

"If you have a large and growing, rapidly growing, group of people whose beliefs are antithetical to western beliefs, at some point there will be a reckoning."

Musk described the prospect as inevitable and called it a "crying shame" that mainstream outlets refuse to recognise the threat to Western civilisation.

Pressed on whether he was racist or anti-Muslim, Musk answered directly:

"My partner is half-Indian and I have four children with her. One of them was named after a famous Indian physicist. So I would say I'm not racist."

He continued:

"If people are coming to a country with antithetical views, I am against that. I'm against rape and murder, I'm against the imposition of rules and laws that are contrary to what we've come to accept in the West."

The interviewer's line of attack was clear.

She framed Musk's support for parties defending borders and cultural continuity as backing for the "far right" and even "very fringe parties."

Musk refused the frame.

"No, I support the NORMAL people," he said. "What you call the far right FALSELY."

He pointed out that the same positions - secure borders, safe cities, sensible spending - were mainstream only 10 or 15 years ago.

Speeches by Obama or Hillary Clinton on these subjects would today be denounced as Trumpian extremism by the "lunatic left."

When Beddoes claimed people "loathe" him, Musk was unmoved, firing back "I don't care, but the fact that, as you pointed out, a quarter billion people follow me is that I think a lot more people actually like me than don't. And I think a lot more people hate you and the media more than you realize."

?? Elon Musk just ENDED this snobby British reporter's career !

Question "we started this conversation saying superlatives. It's why people loathe you. Do you understand that?"

Musk "I don't care, but the fact that, as you pointed out, a quarter billion people follow me is... pic.twitter.com/kCZ7OPk0jy

— J (@JayTC53) July 23, 2026

OOF. Feel the burn.

WATCH: Elon Musk DEMOLISHES a Reporter to Her Face For Calling Him 'Far Right', DARES Her to Keep it In The Interview: 'DON'T CUT THIS'

"These are the NORMAL people"

"I would like to ADMONISH YOU and the Media"

Absolute Masterclass ? pic.twitter.com/Y481A616k4

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) July 23, 2026

The pattern is familiar. Positions once held by centre-left politicians are now labelled extreme so that any defence of Western norms can be pathologised. Musk called it out without apology.

She can't comprehend what he's saying. Fascinating. https://t.co/Uy7L0z4jYT

— ??? ??? (@antleary) July 23, 2026

Watching this woman made me glad I cancelled my subscription. You got time with world's most brilliant man and just tried to lecture him. Nobody cares about your woke bullshit

— ClevelandRocks (@cavsfan1983) July 23, 2026

The full interview, spanning AI, Europe, politics and the rest, is available here (for now):

The Economist Elon Musk July 23rd 2026 pic.twitter.com/xti3kXcZFc

— Lord Withers (@_lordwithers) July 24, 2026

Musk's warning with regards to Britain is not abstract theorising. It lands against a backdrop of UK government moves that look like quiet preparation for internal fracture.

Last year Professor David Betz of King's College London warned that official talk of a Russian invasion threat was a convenient cover for hardening infrastructure and building a citizen's militia against domestic conflict.

Low trust, political factionalism and demographic change, he argued, are pushing Britain toward civil strife.

Just days ago the UK government urged households to stockpile long-life food, water, medicines and wind-up radios while announcing the largest home-defence wargame in decades - Operation Albiston Shadow - again framed around hybrid Russian threats. Betz's analysis remains the same: the real concern is internal, not external.

Musk's latest comments connect those dots in plain language.

The UK has seen repeated outbreaks of disorder linked to migration failures - Southport, Southampton and beyond. Official responses have often appeared two-tier. At the same time, the state is stockpiling resilience messaging and running large-scale domestic defence exercises while insisting the danger is primarily Russian.

The academic critique from Betz and others is that this is politically safer language for a deeper problem: a society whose cohesion has been eroded by rapid demographic change and elite refusal to confront incompatible values.

Musk is simply saying the quiet part out loud. Large-scale importation of populations that reject core Western principles - equality under the law, free speech, protection of women and girls - creates friction that does not magically resolve. When media and political classes treat any discussion of that friction as "far right," the pressure only builds.

Britain's leadership can keep pretending the only threats come from Moscow or from citizens who notice the transformation of their own towns. Musk is not pretending. Neither should anyone else who values the civilisation that still, for now, allows such interviews to happen.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/24/2026 - 16:30

"The Polycrisis Of 2026 Whirls Like A Demon-Infested Storm Overcoming This Human Project..."

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

Struggle session

“. . .there is no saving the Left. There is only saving America from them.” — Sasha Stone

The polycrisis of 2026 whirls like a demon-infested storm overcoming this human project of ours like a medieval panorama of the world’s end. Everything is fraught, tilting toward hazard, menace, ruin. Even under a summer sun, the mind sees only darkness everywhere it looks.

Apocalypse now, it seems like.

You almost can’t blame the doomers, the black pill-ers, lost in their transports of dread.

But I tell you, we will get through this.

Is it a surprise that the IRGC has a death wish for its host, Iran? They’ve been advertising it loudly for half a century, yearning for martyrdom, the bliss of paradise, marriage to multiple perfumed virgins, all the pomegranates you could ever want, and perpetual dreamtime beside a gently burbling fountain in the palace of eternity. Trouble is, to get there you must have your head blown off.

That’s exactly what the IRGC is asking for, though the millions of ordinary Iranians probably have their doubts about the ask. They are hostages of the IRGC regime, which refuses to just stop being a problem for the world. Mr. Trump’s proffer for Iran still abides: become a normal nation, sovereign and all, only without atom bombs. Let ships sail through Hormuz unmolested. Sell your oil, make some money, trade with the other fellas across the Persian Gulf, have a nice civilized life with all the refinements of age-old Persian culture, even with its Islamic overlay. Be happy!

The USA does not seek to occupy Iran, steal its resources, subjugate its people, force them to buy Minnie Mouse plush toys, play baseball, eat Jimmy Dean sausage for breakfast, strum banjoes, or wear cowboy hats. Just stop projecting violence and discord all over the Middle East.

You can’t make us, the IRGC says. Yes, we will, the USA replies. And so it goes. Next up: bridges and power plants. Plus, every ship you damage, we’ll deduct the cost of repair from your frozen assets held in our banks. This is where things stand after the thirteenth night of strategic bombing against the IRGC’s launch sites, drone factories, missile storage caverns, and shoreline military installations. Iran prepared assiduously for this death-scene for decades, building hidey-holes here, there, and everywhere. But every time they launch something now, our satellites mark the coordinates, and boom, now there’s one less hidey-hole.

Iran’s currency, the rial, has an exchange rate against the US dollar of about 1,900,000 to one dollar. There is hardly a functioning economy left. The people are flat broke. Everyday life must be hell now. Could be the IRGC was getting tons of munitions and material for free from China, but days ago we blew up the railroad bridge at Aq Tekeh-Khan that was China’s main connection to Iran, so that’s over with.

You must doubt that Russia is capable of sending arms to Iran at this point. Russia needs every drone and missile it can fabricate now that Ukraine is sending drones clear into Moscow and St. Petersburg on a regular basis. Of course, that war is being stoked by NATO, which perforce includes the USA. A bill (H.R. 2913 — the Ukraine Support Act) that would furnish $1.3-1.8 billion in direct security, military, and reconstruction assistance for Ukraine plus $8 billion in loans was passed by the House in June, but languishes in the Senate. President Trump has threatened to veto it, as running counter to the administration’s preference for negotiations with Russia to end the Ukraine War rather than extend it.

These two conflicts must seem intractable for now, but the mojo driving them has clear and present limits.

If the USA does not underwrite Ukraine’s war effort, then that leaves the EU nations, who are increasingly broke, and for all their idle talk are really incapable of mounting a major arms production campaign.

The UK especially is skating on thin ice these days as Mr. Trump methodically cancels its long-running command and control of global finance through the City of London (as its “Wall Street” is called). In fact, it looks as if the floundering UK — with dopey Andy Burnham rolling in as Britain’s seventh Prime Minister in a decade — has passed the ball of globalist leadership to its forward striker (and all-purpose fixer) Mark Carney the Prime Minister of Canada.

Carney, who was previously chief of the Bank of England, has played a series of losing games against President Trump the past year, while Mr. Carney is busy wrecking the Canadian economy for the sake of the globalist “green” flimflam, a sustained high volume of third world immigration, and outlandish DEI activism that includes giving vast tracts of real estate back to Canada’s First Nations people, their Indians. Carney has also very actively played footsie with the CCP to a degree that is seriously pissing off Mr. Trump. Among all the other shocks and surprises upcoming, you might imagine him having to send the 82nd Airborne up to Ottawa to inform PM Carney that there will be no globalist seat of operations in North America.

Yes, things are getting that strange. And then, continuing the clean-up operation south of our border, there is Cuba to straighten out. Cuba is obviously next. Our patience with that failing state’s communist export project is particularly thin, now that the Democratic Party here is entertaining Marxist-Leninist dreams of glory.

On top of all that, we have serious concerns with the financial markets and the widening income inequality that drives the younger generations’ yen for “socialism” (free rent, free medicine, free stuff).

Financialization concentrates and compounds wealth while the salary-mule class stagnates, suffers, goes broke, and nurses its grievances.

We’re pushing into the season of financial train wrecks. AI has cornered all the free capital in the land — for something that appears to be an existential menace as much as any potential economic benefit — and it is wildly perverting the equity market. The bond market groans under the debt burden and the impossibility of fiscal prudence. Capitalism that can’t self-correct invites financial and political violence.

It’s probably a greater threat to us than the faraway wars, bad as they are. Mr. Trump, Secretary Bessent, and others in charge surely know this — that the American ownership class has become tiny, and that the cure for that is getting the vast dis-owned, forsaken middle-class back into businesses that they will own, in an economy based on production of real goods, not on playing games with money.

There is so much to be done and we can get it done if we screw our heads back on.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/24/2026 - 16:20

Financial Repression: How The US Government Will Quietly Confiscate Your Wealth

Authored by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,

When I first heard the term “financial repression,” I thought it had to be a joke.

Why would governments and central banks use a term with such a negative connotation? Even people who are financially illiterate can understand that financial repression is a bad thing.

Simply put, financial repression is a strategy governments use to reduce their debt burden by manipulating interest rates below inflation.

It allows them to borrow in dollars and repay in dimes.

Here’s how the IMF describes it, emphasis mine:

“Financial repression includes directed lending to government by captive domestic audiences (such as pension funds), explicit or implicit caps on interest rates, regulations of cross-border capital movements, and (generally) a tighter connection between government and banks.”

More from the IMF:

“High public debt often produces the drama of default and restructuring.

But debt is also reduced through financial repression, a tax on bondholders and savers via negative or below-market real interest rates.

After WWII, capital controls and regulatory restrictions created a captive audience for government debt, limiting tax-base erosion.

Financial repression is most successful in liquidating debt when accompanied by inflation.”

For example, if inflation is 9% and governments fix interest rates at 4%, there is an ongoing 5% wealth transfer from the lender to the borrower. And that transfer compounds over time.

I think financial repression is how the US government will try to manage its otherwise impossible debt situation.

Consider this.

Among the biggest expenditures for the US government are so-called entitlements like Social Security and Medicare.

It’s unlikely any politician will cut entitlements. On the contrary, I expect them to continue growing.

That’s because tens of millions of Baby Boomers—about 22% of the population—will enter retirement in the coming years. Cutting Social Security and Medicare is a sure way to lose an election.

With the most precarious geopolitical situation since World War 2, National Defense—another large expenditure—is unlikely to be cut. Instead, defense spending is all but certain to increase. President Trump has proposed increasing it from $917 billion to $1.5 trillion. The ongoing war with Iran guarantees military spending has nowhere to go but up, way up.

Different types of welfare programs also make up a considerable part of the federal budget and are unlikely to be cut.

In short, efforts to reduce expenditures will be meaningless unless it becomes politically acceptable to make chainsaw-like cuts to entitlements, national defense, and welfare, while also reducing the national debt enough to lower interest costs.

In other words, the US would need a leader who—at a minimum—returns the federal government to a limited Constitutional Republic, closes the 800 military bases abroad, ends entitlements, kills the welfare state, and repays a large portion of the national debt.

However, that is a completely unrealistic fantasy.

It would be foolish to bet on it happening.

In any case, don’t count on increased tax revenue to offset these increases in federal expenditures.

Even if tax rates went to 100%, it still wouldn’t be enough to stop the debt from growing.

According to Forbes, there are around 902 billionaires in the US with a combined net worth of about $6.8 trillion.

The US federal government spent around $7 trillion in FY 2025, and will almost certainly spend a lot more in FY 2026 and beyond.

Even if the US government confiscated 100% of billionaire assets through a wealth tax, it wouldn’t cover even a single year of current federal spending.

And even after confiscating all billionaire wealth, the US government would still have to borrow more than $200 billion to cover FY 2025 spending.

Here’s the bottom line: increasing taxes, even to extreme levels, isn’t going to change the trajectory of this unstoppable trend—even slightly.

The truth is, no matter what happens, the deficits will not stop growing, nor will the debt needed to finance them.

In short, it’s politically impossible to even slow the federal spending growth rate, let alone cut it.

That means issuing ever-increasing amounts of debt is the only way to finance continuously expanding budget deficits.

The ever-growing interest expense on the ever-growing federal debt compounds the problem. It adds to the deficit, which must be financed with even more debt, which creates even more interest expense.

So what options does the US government have to deal with this impossible situation?

In my view, the US government has no choice but to implement financial repression.

The idea is to stealthily confiscate wealth from bondholders without causing too much alarm.

Financial Repression

There are many flavors of financial repression.

Capital controls. Mandates forcing banks, pension funds, and insurance companies to buy government bonds. Regulations that make government debt appear “safe” or “risk-free” on institutional balance sheets. Yield curve control. Interest rate caps. Restrictions on moving money abroad.

And countless other policies designed to trap capital inside the system and push it toward government debt.

For example, many countries have forced private retirement funds into unwanted government debt. I have no doubt the US government would do the same under pressure.

They could try to sell it to a scared and financially ignorant public as a safety measure—a way to help people protect their retirement savings by moving them into “safe” Treasuries amid a stock market collapse.

They could sell it with patriotic lies and push War Bonds, as they have done in the past.

They could mandate that a certain amount—say, 25%—of all new contributions to private retirement accounts must consist of Treasuries. For your own good, of course.

They could even forcibly convert existing assets held in retirement accounts into government bonds.

No matter the method, the result is the same.

The government needs to borrow enormous amounts of money at artificially low interest rates.

So it creates rules, incentives, and restrictions that force or pressure savers and institutions to finance government deficits on terms they would never voluntarily accept in a free market.

That is the essence of financial repression.

It’s no wonder financial repression is so attractive to politicians.

It allows them to reduce the real value of the debt without admitting they defaulted, without officially raising taxes, and without making the politically impossible spending cuts that would otherwise be required.

And they can do it while perhaps not even 1 in 100 people truly understand what is happening.

Financial repression will not arrive with a public announcement. It will come through policies that appear reasonable, temporary, and even protective—while quietly eroding the value of your savings and limiting your financial freedom.

This is only one part of a much larger crisis now taking shape. Read our free report to understand the forces driving it, the risks they pose to your wealth and personal freedom, and the three strategies you can use right now to prepare.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/24/2026 - 15:40

US Bombing Campaign Effectiveness In Doubt As Iranians Rebuild At Rapid Pace

Neocon war hawks thought that Iran's defense capabilities could be obliterated through shock and awe style heavy bombing raids, such as during the opening days and weeks of Operation Epic Fury, but just like pretty much every other assumption about how things would go in the little Iran "excursion" - they are once again proven wrong.

Several fresh reports from both American and Israeli sources say that Iran is rebuilding damaged and destroyed facilities at much faster-than-expected pace. This is despite the well over 20,000 US-Israeli strikes carried out at the height of the war.

Analyzing the latest satellite imagery assessing the damage, The Wall Street Journal writes that the Islamic Republic has "quickly rebuilt infrastructure damaged during the U.S. and Israeli bombing campaign over recent months, from missile bases nestled deep inside mountains to bridges, ports and production facilities, according to Israeli and Western officials and a review of satellite imagery."

Handout satellite image courtesy of Vantor shows tunnel entrances at a missile complex in Isfahan, in central Iran. via Vantor/AFP

The publication says that this is a significant factor in explaining how the Iranians have managed to maintain their grip on the Strait of Hormuz and thus serious economic and political leverage.

Everything from roads to bridges to tunnel entrances have also be restored at surprising speeds, which also suggests the US bombings have had a rallying effect among civic workers and the broader population in support of the nation and the government.

WSJ offers but one example as follows: "Near Kangavar, in western Iran, satellite imagery from Planet Labs in March showed two tunnel entrances and an access road damaged by airstrikes aimed at blocking access to an Iranian missile base. Within weeks, imagery from Airbus revealed a neatly paved road leading to freshly excavated entrances."

Israeli media too has listed out the following further examples:

Kangavar Missile Base: Attacked in early March; satellite images show an access road was destroyed, but a newly paved road was built weeks later to bypass the damage.

Bandar Anzali Port: Despite Israel claiming significant damage in March to the IRGC-linked port, command center, and shipyard - early July images show active reconstruction underway.

Tehran Missile Plant: Recent imagery documents active rebuilding efforts at a missile production facility near the capital.

This is causing US and Israeli officials to revisit strategy concerning potential future major bombing campaigns over Iran.

It was in April that the US and Israel began ramping up attacks on bridges and rail lines to cripple Iran's national transport network. Israel especially adopted attacks against key civilian infrastructure as a battle tactic, in hopes that eventually there would be a groundswell of anti-Tehran anger domestically, leading to government overthrow. Of course, regime change has never happened, and is proving an illusive Neocon fantasy. 

Finally have a moment to comment on this.

Iran is a country of over 90 million people, with high educational attainment and strong motives for self-defense.

The real surprise in this story is that U.S. and Israeli officials seem surprised that Iran is rebuilding so quickly.

— Rosemary Kelanic (@RKelanic) July 24, 2026

President Trump himself had also at the time repeatedly threatening to bomb bridges, power plants, and other infrastructure to send Iran "back to the Stone Age."

Iranian officials say multiple damaged rail lines and bridges have been restored in record time - sometimes within 40 to 96 hours - using domestic engineering teams. The ceasefire which was declared on April 8, but which is now defunct, was used as a time of rapid rebuilding - something which even US officials have acknowledged. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/24/2026 - 15:20

'Caution Is Warranted': Ed Dowd Warns Wall Street's AI CapEx Party Is Ending

Authored by Ed Dowd via 'Beyond The Narrative' substack,

The signs are piling up faster than the hype can spin them. AI capex has been the rocket fuel for markets, but the second derivative is turning. Factors ending the party:

• Private credit stalled — flows reversing, redemptions surging, industry effectively paused.

• Enterprise demand cracking — ROI skepticism, token costs biting, data/alpha extraction backlash.

• Power constraints hitting hard — the grid can’t scale without massive, long lead time builds or dystopian reallocation.

• Open-source pressure — Chinese based DeepSeek and now the new open-source frontier model Kimi K3 are rivaling OpenAI and Anthropic frontiers labs at fraction of the price, commoditizing the economics.

Credit markets always end the party. We’re watching it live.

Private Credit: The Silent Pause Button on AI Capex

This is where financing reality bites. Morgan Stanley estimated private credit could fund up to 50% of the external financing needs for the massive AI data center buildout. That channel is now under serious stress.

Flows in private credit are going the wrong way. The industry is effectively paused. Redemption requests are surging, funds are gating, and high-profile bankruptcies plus underwriting scrutiny are flashing warnings. Private credit has become the new junk bond market…except it lacks transparency, liquidity, and is now being stress-tested in real time.

With outflows accelerating, near-term funding from Private credit for AI data center buildouts looks less likely. NVIDIA and others keep popping up in private credit loan books. What happens to repossessed GPUs in a stressed environment?

Continued capex relies on credit markets keeping the spigot open. When that spigot slows or gets expensive, the capex math breaks. Financing could turn prohibitively costly, pausing or dramatically slowing the cycle that has supported the S&P 500 index with roughly 45% of the market cap being AI or AI-adjacent.

Additionally AI infrastructure inflation itself is credit driven. This reflexive credit driven surge in demand has caused cost inflation for chips and data center construction making the past cost projections moot. These inflated costs make ROI hurdles even harder. Current creditors are reassessing their exposure as the Goldman Sachs credit desk has recently highlighted.

Enterprise Demand Is Cracking

The people who are supposed to use this stuff are slowing down. Companies that rushed AI tools into workers’ hands are now reining them in because costs at scale are biting. That’s not theory…it’s the second derivative showing up in real budgets. They are stepping back and trying to assess the ROI from this investment as their AI budgets come in above initial cost projections.

Alex Karp of Palantir laid it out bluntly. Enterprises are livid. They’re paying for tokens that create no reliable value. They’re watching their own workflows, customer data, and competitive alpha get extracted and potentially sold back to competitors. Token pricing itself is the confession…if these models delivered durable, defensible productivity gains at scale, the labs would price on value or take equity cuts, not meter compute.

Open-source pressure

DeepSeek and other cheaper open-source models were already pressuring token pricing for those users who didn’t need the frontier models. To make matters worse, recent newcomer Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 is a Chinese open-weight model rivaling top US frontier leaders OpenAI and Anthropic at a fraction of the cost. It’s putting direct pressure on closed-source pricing and exposing how over-hyped the token economics have become. Why pay premium rates when open-source alternatives deliver competitive performance? Competitive pricing hurts revenue growth for the two US frontier leaders which is likely to push their IPOs into next year (if at all) and raises the cost of their debt capital. The downstream effect is an eventual capex slowdown for the pick-and-shovel crowd (semiconductors etc.). Simple as that.

Power Constraints: The Physical Wall Nobody Wants to Talk About

Even if the money were flowing freely, the electricity isn’t. AI compute requires tremendous amounts of energy and water. Currently installed electrical capacity can’t handle the aggressive projections without massive new builds, which take years of capital, permitting, and construction or drastic reallocation of existing power away from other uses.

One path is slow and practical: add real capacity. The other gets dystopian fast: reduce human usage or rolling blackouts to free up juice. The reality will be somewhere in between and will play out politically. Local opposition to data centers is already rising over electricity rates, water use, and land. Towns are pushing back. This isn’t abstract futurism…it’s a hard physical constraint on timelines and costs.

Power adds another multiplier to the capex problem. Data centers need gigawatts. Hyperscalers are already forecasting enormous spending just to keep up. When private credit tightens and power infrastructure lags, the combined effect is a slower, more expensive buildout than the bull-case spreadsheets assume. The second derivative doesn’t just slow…it can stall.

Market Concentration and Cyclical Reality

Semiconductor stock valuations have hit record levels recently around 19-20% of the entire S&P 500. That’s not healthy diversification; it’s concentration in a notoriously cyclical industry whose recent boom has been funded by debt to business models that remain unproven at scale.

The biggest AI capex spenders have seen their stocks pull back meaningfully from highs even as broader indices hover near records. ROI concerns are finally showing up in price action. Even the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) has been more sober: ‘AI has boosted confidence via productivity expectations, but it’s also raising job fears, supply bottlenecks, and the risk of overinvestment boom-bust cycles we’ve seen before.’ Power and credit constraints make that overinvestment risk even more acute.

Bottom Line

We’ve seen this movie before. Credit questions profitability first. Physical limits and cheaper open-source alternatives (hello Kimi) force the timeline and pricing reckoning. Circular deals, negative free cash flow, sky-high chip prices, and now power realities all point in the same direction.

The party isn’t over tomorrow but closing time signals are everywhere: semis at peak gross margins, enterprises pausing, private credit tightening, power wall rising, open-source commoditization accelerating. Stock market AI concentration at extremes.

Skepticism isn’t denial of eventual AI value. It’s calling the current valuation and frenzy for what it is…priced for perfection that customers, credit markets, the electrical grid, and open-source competition aren’t delivering.

Watch the flows. Watch power builds. Watch Kimi-style pricing pressure. Watch the second derivative across money, megawatts, and model costs. The unwind in these concentrated, debt-fueled, physically constrained narratives tends to be swift once the marginal equity buyer and/or lender steps away.

Caution is warranted…the bright bar lights are about to be turned on. The distance to a real repricing is shrinking fast. Protect capital. The math doesn’t lie.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/24/2026 - 15:00

SpaceX Reportedly Turns Away Falcon Customers As Starship Gamble Comes Into Focus

Yet another corporate media report based on anonymous sources is likely to draw an immediate response from Elon Musk. He has repeatedly used X this year to challenge reporting on Tesla and SpaceX.

Bloomberg reports that SpaceX has begun turning away satellite operators seeking dedicated Falcon 9 launches after 2028 and is no longer accepting future reservations. The report was based on people familiar with the matter, and the company has not confirmed it.

The report continued:

Engineers at Musk's rocket, satellite and artificial intelligence juggernaut have halted building some non-reusable components for the Falcon family, such as the rocket's massive upper stage, said one of the people.

. . .

SpaceX's plans could change for a number of reasons, including development setbacks with the futuristic Starship vehicle, the people said. The company is likely to still use the Falcon 9 for launches for the Department of Defense and NASA, some of the people said.

If Starship isn't operational by the end of 2028 and Falcon production isn't extended, satellite operators could face a shortage of heavy-lift launch capacity. That means a lot is riding on the mega-rocket Starship getting through the testing phase and achieving commercial viability.

Starship's execution risks weighed on SpaceX shares this week after last week's test-launch delay. Over the past several weeks, more than $1 trillion in market capitalization has been wiped out.

Shares have fallen about 16% below the $135 IPO price in recent days.

The CIO of Tigress Financial Partners noted that the latest Starship launch abort "underscores ongoing execution risk around ramping Starship to high-cadence, reusable operations, and reinforces that repeated delays could push out revenue and margin trajectories."

Could be wrong, but it seems that 4 engines didn’t light causing the abort sequence

Unfortunate scenario, but better safe than sorry! Hoping for another attempt tomorrow pic.twitter.com/o0BQ8Ekt7i

— Victor Kerman (@VictorKerman) July 16, 2026

Starship's Thursday launch attempt was postponed due to adverse weather conditions, with another attempt scheduled for later this evening. Check back for updates.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/24/2026 - 14:45

A Quantum Roadmap Would Push Bitcoin Much Higher

Authored by Ciaran Lyons via CoinTelegraph.com,

Bitcoin developers need to swallow their pride and outline a clear plan to harden the blockchain against quantum computing attacks, according to Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards. He says the day they finally bite the bullet, the price will respond very quickly.

“If the Bitcoin core team says in two or three months: ‘this is our roadmap, we’re gonna solve it in the next two years, these are the rough steps we’ll take,’ that would be amazing news,” Edwards tells Cointelegraph on Trade Secrets. 

“I think that would discount a lot of the risk pretty much overnight,” Edwards says.

The question of whether Bitcoin developers should modify the network to make its cryptography quantum-resistant has sparked heated debate within the Bitcoin community, with some arguing that major changes could conflict with Bitcoin’s core ethos. Others claim quantum computers are many years away, and a rushed cure could be worse than the disease.

Charles Edwards says a clear roadmap could push price up “very quickly”

Edwards often highlights the risk of quantum computing to Bitcoin to his 132,800 X followers. The fear is that, one day, powerful enough quantum computers could break the cryptography that protects the Bitcoin network and potentially compromise Bitcoin wallets.

The uncertainty has impacted investor sentiment, and some analysts say it has contributed to the downfall in Bitcoin’s price. The world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock recently pointed to quantum computing as a potential long-term risk in materials for spot Bitcoin ETF investors. 

However, Edwards says if Bitcoin developers outline a clear roadmap to address the quantum threat, as some other chains have already done, it could send Bitcoin’s price higher “very quickly.” 

Source: Charles Edwards

“Double digits probably,” Edwards predicts.

He adds the quantum issue is “somewhat counterintuitively an upside catalyst potential,” because it is currently on the back burner and the Bitcoin Improvement Proposals (BIPs) to date are “not really” a genuine solution.

Edwards is no stranger to making high-conviction calls on Bitcoin. Based in Melbourne, Australia, he founded Capriole Investments in 2019, a hedge fund focused on Bitcoin and digital assets. The firm uses a combination of quantitative models, AI, and macroeconomic analysis to guide its investment strategy across crypto markets.

Charles Edwards says Bitcoin is 40% below its fair value

A growing number of observers worry the risk could become more serious if Bitcoin developers fail to make the necessary changes to the network before 2030. Ethereum is due to complete it’s post quantum overhaul by 2029, which will shine a spotlight on Bitcoin’s own preparations.

Bitcoin is trading at $65,270 at the time of publication. Source: CoinMarketCap

Edwards estimates that Bitcoin is currently around 40% below what he considers its fair value based on energy value, while arguing that quantum risk accounts for roughly a 30% discount. “That means it’s more than priced in,” Edwards said. Bitcoin is trading at $65,270 at the time of publication, roughly 49% below its October all-time highs of $126,100.

Edwards clarifies that Bitcoin’s current price reflects the quantum risk based on the information available today, rather than any unknown future developments that could accelerate the threat and tank the price further. 

His estimate is based on the timelines outlined by leading quantum computing companies and researchers for when “Q Day” could arrive, the point at which quantum computers become powerful enough to reverse engineer private keys from public keys. 

“That sits in that four to five year range, give or take, a few years,” Edwards says.

Edwards says he also factors in the time Bitcoin would need to develop and implement a solution, which BIP-360 author Ethan Heilman estimates could take years.

“If we’re gonna get into maths, it’s pretty simple; it is just an aggregation of those expert opinions. So it’s based on that, and based on the fact that there’s currently no solution for Bitcoin.”

“That risk again falls significantly if there’s a solution or if there’s a roadmap to a solution. But it also could grow if tomorrow we find out that Google is, you know, twice as far ahead on their roadmap to Q Day or some other major company,” he said.

“It’s priced in today, but it’s not to say that it can’t get worse or better. It’s just I think it’s skewed more probabilistically to the upside from here,” Edwards says.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/24/2026 - 14:20

"USA Isn't A PiggyBank For Europe": Trump Launches Section 301 Probe Into EU Over Big Tech Fines

Summary:

• Trump Opens Section 301 Investigation On Europe Over Big Tech Fines 
• Trump Slaps Forced-Labor Duties On 60 Countries 
• Trump Begins Rebuild Tariff Wall After Supreme Court Ruling Earlier This Year 

Trump Says US Begins Section 301 Investigation on Europe 

President Trump wrote on Truth Social that the US will launch a Section 301 investigation into the European Union for "robbing American companies, in turn, the American Taxpayer." 

Trump said Brussels is using America as a "PIGGYBANK" by fining Big Tech companies billions and billions of dollars.

Trump listed the technology companies that have been fined a combined billions of dollars:

After having fined Apple, for no reason at all, 15 Billion Dollars, Meta, 3 Billion Dollars, Amazon 2.5 Billion Dollars, and many others, we have just been informed that Google, a truly advanced and amazing group, has been fined yet another 1 Billion Dollars, without explanation. This brings the Google total to over 18 Billion Dollars!

Trump continued:

This illegal and highly discriminatory practice started at these high levels during the first year of the Sleepy Joe Biden Administration, but it's not going to continue during the Trump Administration.

He added:

The United States of America is not a "PIGGYBANK" for Europe, nor will we allow it to be!

Please let this TRUTH serve to represent that we will immediately initiate a 301 Investigation into the practice of "ROBBING" American Companies and, in turn, the American Taxpayer.

The European Union will pay a very big price for this illegal and highly unethical conduct, which I have consistently warned them about.

The penalties will be entirely reversed and, we anticipate, a substantial TARIFF to be placed on them at the earliest possible moment.

"The United States of America is not a “PIGGYBANK” for Europe, nor will we allow it to be! Please let this TRUTH serve to represent that we will immediately initiate a 301 Investigation into the practice of “ROBBING” American Companies and, in turn, the American Taxpayer." -… pic.twitter.com/TRGPi0rCm3

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) July 24, 2026 Trump's Tariff Wall Returns With Forced-Labor Duties On 60 Countries 

The Trump administration imposed Section 301 tariffs on 60 countries accused of failing to "impose and effectively enforce" bans on goods produced with forced labor, according to a new notice from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.

Today, Ambassador Greer is taking action, at President Trump’s direction, under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 by imposing tariffs on 60 trading partners for their failure to adopt and effectively enforce a prohibition on the importation of goods produced with forced labor.…

— United States Trade Representative (@USTradeRep) July 23, 2026

Goods from countries including Canada, Mexico, India, and the UK will face a 10% duty, while imports from the European Union and Taiwan will be taxed at least 10%. Products from Japan, South Korea, and Switzerland will face levies of at least 12.5%, with dozens of other countries subject to a flat 12.5% tariff.

Fuel, food, fertilizer, and products already covered by sector-specific tariffs, including automobiles, metals, and pharmaceuticals, will be exempt. Goods qualifying under the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement will also be excluded.

The tariffs take effect Friday at 12:01 a.m. New York time, marking the biggest move yet to restore President Trump's protectionist tariff wall since his earlier levies were struck down by the Supreme Court. After that setback, the president instituted a 10% global import tax, which expires Friday. The timing of the new levies ensures there will be no gap between the two.

"President Trump recognizes that decades of moral suasion have not eradicated forced labor from global supply chains.  The United States has had a forced labor import ban for nearly a century, and rigorously enforces it; it's well past time for our trading partners to do the same," Trade Ambassador Jamieson Greer wrote in a statement.

Greer said, "Today's action will begin to correct what is both a human rights abuse and a distortive trade practice to improve the welfare of workers everywhere.  I am encouraged by the trading partners who have moved quickly to adopt forced labor import prohibitions, and look forward to ensuring their effective enforcement."

Bloomberg noted that the new Section 301 levies are expected to lift the average effective U.S. tariff rate by just 0.1 percentage point to roughly 10.7%. That remains below the 13.5% rate in place before the Supreme Court's February ruling.

Ernst & Young trade expert Blake Harden was quoted by Bloomberg as saying that the Trump administration is not yet done with tariffs or with disrupting the status quo.

"There's still a lot of uncertainty hanging out there. We still have the opportunity for a lot of tariffs this year," Harden said. "Prior to this week there was sort of just a bit of a lull and maybe it felt like there was more certainty than there is. There's this thing I keep telling folks: There's a lot to come still as we get into this year."

Here's a first take from Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius, who said the new levies should have little effect on the overall US effective tariff rate:

BOTTOM LINE: The White House released the final version of the Sec. 301 tariffs it will use to replace the current 10% Sec. 122 global tariff, which expires July 24. The details of the release suggest there should be little change to the overall US effective tariff rate. Some individual trading partners will see their ETRs move higher or lower, but generally not by much more than 1pp in either direction.

1. The White House announced a new set of tariffs to replace the current 10% global tariff under Sec. 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which expires July 24. Following a Sec. 301 investigation into forced labor, the US Trade Representative (USTR) has released a final list of tariffs covering trading partners accounting for 95% of US imports. There would be four levels of tariffs: a 10% cap (inclusive of the preexisting MFN tariff), a 10% add-on tariff, a 12.5% cap, and a 12.5% add-on tarif

2. While the prior version of these tariffs, released in June, would have raised the US effective tariff rate (ETR) slightly (+0.25pp), the final version just released should leave the ETR essentially unchanged (-0.1pp) because of four revisions USTR made: (1) the tariff rate for several large trading partners was changed to a cap (including the MFN rate) of 10% (EU and Taiwan) or 12.5% (Japan, Korea, and Switzerland) rather than a tariff on top of the MFN rate; (2) several trading partners including Argentina, Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Malaysia, and the UK will face a 10% rate, rather than the 12.5% proposed in the earlier version (Taiwan moves from 12.5% add-on to a 10% maximum, like the EU); (3) product exclusions for specific trading partners in recent trade deals are now reflected, and (4) some new products were added to the exclusion list for all trading partners. In general, most of the trading partners getting the lower 10% rate in the final version have a recent trade deal with the US.

3. The change in each trading partner’s tariff rate compared with the expiring Sec. 122 policy would be modest, with only a few instances of changes greater than 1pp. The EU (-0.9pp), Indonesia (-0.9pp), and Korea (-0.7pp) would see the largest declines in their US ETR as a result of the shift from Sec. 122 to the new Sec. 301 rates, while Turkey (+1.5pp), China (+1.4pp), the Philippines (+0.8pp), Vietnam (+0.8pp), Singapore (+0.6pp) and Thailand (+0.6pp) would see the largest increases.

4. The USTR did not announce any new actions related to the other Sec. 301 investigation into 16 trading partners on manufacturing overcapacity, which was started around the same time as the just-concluded investigation. While this could still come in the next few weeks, we still believe that whatever tariffs come out of that second investigation won’t take effect until after the midterm election, and we continue to expect a roughly unchanged US ETR through the end of 2026.

Meanwhile, the US Customs and Border Protection has issued refunds to importers after the Supreme Court invalidated Trump's previous tariff regime.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/24/2026 - 14:06

Oil Tanker Makes Red Sea U-Turn After Houthi Threats, Reroutes Around Africa In Costly Transit

ING's Singapore-based head of commodities, Warren Patterson, was asked during a recent webinar what it would take for Brent crude to exceed $120 a barrel. His answer was "not much," warning that prices could soar well into triple-digit territory if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked through August and threats to Red Sea shipping intensify.

Patterson's warning about disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait echoes concerns voiced across commodity desks this week: the longer these critical chokepoints remain impaired, the greater the upside risk to Brent, WTI, and fuel prices at the pump.

Fresh Houthi announcement, which muddles the waters a bit.

Paraphrasing: No closure of the Bab el-Mandeb strait; blockade only targets "the Saudi side," but that leaves unclear whether it includes (or not) foreign vessels lifting Saudi crude (or only Saudi oil tankers). https://t.co/tXsrjfQ4HK

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) July 24, 2026

Strait of Hormuz Crossings

Bab el-Mandeb Crossings

The latest signs of trouble in the southern Red Sea come from a Reuters report stating that the Danish-flagged tanker Torm Innovation was rerouted from Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, through the Suez Canal and around the Cape of Good Hope as an alternative to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait after two Saudi tankers were hit with projectiles by the Iran-backed Houthis earlier this week.

"Given the security situation in the southern part of the Red Sea, the vessel is sailing via the Suez Canal and around the Cape to Asia. This reflects our cautious approach to crew safety, which remains our highest priority," a Torm spokesperson told the outlet.

Rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope instead of transiting Bab el-Mandeb adds weeks of sailing time and sharply increases freight, fuel and insurance costs.

Longer voyages also tie up vessels for extended periods, effectively reducing available tanker capacity and tightening energy markets. The result will be higher tanker rates.

The rerouted tanker is carrying a 500,000-barrel cargo of Saudi naphtha from Yanbu to Japan.

🇸🇦Saudi Arabia's escape route from Hormuz is now being REROUTED again.

After shifting exports to Yanbu and Bab el Mandeb, Houthi attacks are forcing Asian cargoes north through Suez and then around Africa.

A Yanbu to Taiwan voyage jumps from
19 to 48 days.

Fuel costs rise… pic.twitter.com/eaViElkW6d

— Jack Prandelli (@jackprandelli) July 24, 2026

One question we have is whether this marks the beginning of a tanker exodus from the southern Red Sea, or whether surging gasoline and diesel prices at US pumps force the Trump administration to pursue a diplomatic off-ramp with Tehran to break the tit-for-tat strike cycle and restore order on critical maritime chokepoints to mitigate an energy shock.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/24/2026 - 13:40

Betting On TACO? Oil Slides Despite Unraveling 'Diplomacy' In Iran; Trump Warns China & Russia Summary

• Diplomacy signals emerge: Pakistan is reportedly exploring renewed US-Iran talks, while Trump is set to meet Netanyahu next week amid the escalating conflict.
• War continues with 13th straight night of bombing: The US carried out a 13th straight night of strikes on Iran as Tehran launched fresh attacks on US-linked targets in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, and Iraq.
• Oil eases: Crude prices fell by week's end despite continued fighting, as scant reports of possible diplomatic efforts outweighed ongoing regional attacks.
• Trump warns Russia, China: Trump cautioned China and Russia against supplying arms or targeting help to Iran.
• Political pressure grows at home: A new Fox News poll found most Americans oppose the Iran war, while reports say Trump is increasingly frustrated as the conflict drags on.

//--> //--> //--> Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
Yes 10% · No 90%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Oil Eases by Week's End on Signs of 'Diplomacy Lite'

Somewhat surprisingly, oil prices are pushing lower by week's close, especially after a succession of perhaps 'diplomacy-lite' headlines; however, the reality still remains is that the bombing campaign is escalating... and typically the region witnesses the biggest bombs away on a weekend, with markets closed:

• Pakistan exploring path toward resuming US-Iran talks: Reuters
• Pakistan's push to resume talks follows pressure from China: Reuters
• Houthis say they don't seek to close key Bab al-Mandeb Strait (only for Saudi shipping, they say)
• Trump to meet Netanyahu at the White House on Tuesday amid Iran escalation

 

Trump on China, Russia Assistance to Iran

President Trump took to Truth Social to warn China and Russia against giving or selling arms to Iran, saying: "If they did, it would be very bad for them". However he also sought to clarify: "In my opinion, (they are) not participating."

Doing so was "certainly not in their best interests" - the president added. The president addressed a Reuters report that alleged Iranian strikes on CIA targets in the Gulf earlier in the war is being investigated, on concerns that Russia or China may have helped with such targeting.

Xi "told me he would not," Trump wrote. Was there a pinky promise?...

Iraqi Prime Minister Denies NYT Report on Ceasefire Offer

The latest little peace overture by Washington widely reported Thursday night was apparently a big nothingburger, as on Friday the Iraqi prime minister’s office has denied a New York Times report claiming that Iran rejected a US ceasefire proposal delivered to Tehran by Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi.

The fresh statement from the prime minister's office said what was published in the Times was "entirely unfounded" and had "no relation to reality." The statement underscored the temporary nature of the proposal and that it was the "only offer on the table" and still left the question of control over the Strait of Hormuz unresolved - and so Tehran was uninterested.

It's also the reality that Tehran wants to see Trump sweat and impose economic and political costs particularly ahead of the midterms in November, where Congressional Republicans must face voters over failing to rein in Trump's Iran war. The Iranians continue to openly voice this, for example in the following from the parliament speaker:

They wanted to punish Iran.

Punished themselves with triple-digit oil instead.

10/10 strategy👏👏👏 pic.twitter.com/w80f1Xzuvk

— محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) July 23, 2026 13th Straight Night of US Bombing

Meanwhile, in what is becoming a brutal, nightly routine, US Central Command (CENTCOM) has wrapped up its 13th consecutive wave of airstrikes against Iran. The Pentagon said it targeted military command centers, drone storage facilities, communication networks, and coastal surveillance sites. 

Iranian state media reported overnight into Friday heavy explosions rocking major hubs across the country, including Khorramabad, Jask, Ahvaz, Bandar Abbas, and the strategic outpost of Qeshm Island. Iranian media further said a US missile strike left four dead and five injured in the key industrial and transportation hub of Ahvaz.

As the bombs fall, Tehran is still signaling that military pressure won't force a cheap surrender - with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi lashing out at the US escalation, warning that "mindless aggression" will only see Trump pay a "heavier price" for a deal to end the war.

More Iran Retaliation on Gulf

Iranian retaliation on US-linked sites in the Gulf have continued at the same steady pace, with on Friday Bahrain's military having intercepted "several treacherous Iranian air attacks" - according to the general command of the Bahrain Defense Force.

The Bahraini military further denounced Iran's "systematic hostile approach" and "criminal attacks targeting civilians". The statement emphasized, "The general command emphasises that the deliberate use of missiles and drones to target civilians and private property constitutes a flagrant violation of international humanitarian law."

Throughout the morning the Iranian military's targets also included locations in Jordan, Kuwait, and northern Iraq. Sky News is reporting that "Explosions were also heard near a base hosting the US in Iraq, near the Erbil International Airport."

Fox Poll says Iran War More Unpopular Then Ever

Fox feeding its Boomer audience some Freedom Viagra with a helping of war crimes on the side:

Fox News discussion about Iran's infrastructure:

"What do you think we might hit first?"

"I don't know if we'll hit it first, but the Damavand plant supplies 40% of Tehran's electricity." pic.twitter.com/VpYVT2X4lI

— The American Conservative (@amconmag) July 23, 2026

But Fox News also reports the results of its latest poll which finds 56% oppose the ongoing American military action against Iran, including 40% who "strongly" oppose. "Disapproval of President Donald Trump’s handling of Iran hit a record high in July," Fox writes.

"A majority of voters oppose U.S. military action, and nearly two thirds think the conflict will last at least a year," the report says.

A Frustrated Trump is in 'Revenge Mode'

 This as The Wall Street Journal does an entire investigative report which should be laughably obvious to any careful observer to what's been going on and the deepening quagmire the US is getting itself into:

As the war in Iran enters its fifth month, Trump is increasingly frustrated that a conflict he once thought would be over in a matter of weeks has dragged on with no end in sight, administration officials and others close to the president said.

Some of Trump’s advisers now worry that the war—which has resulted in higher prices, falling approval ratings and the deaths of more than a dozen U.S. servicemembers—is consuming his presidency and damaging Republicans’ already dim prospects in the coming midterm elections.

Alarmingly, the WSJ noted that Trump seems in "revenge mode" against Tehran, and apparently sees no other options than to try and keep bombing his way out of it. Of course, this script has been written many times - not only during the "Global War on Terror" and this millennium's "forever wars" - but going all the way back to the Vietnam war.

NBC: The four service members being flown from the Middle East to Dover Air Force Base were 28-year-old Angel S. Rampersad of New York, 30-year-old Michael Emmanuel Swinton of North Carolina, 25-year-old Tyler James Feehan of Hawaii and 19-year-old Isabella Gonzales of Texas.

President Trump attends a dignified transfer on Wednesday. War Takes "Toll" on White House: WSJ

The war is said to be taking a heavy "toll" on Trump and his top officials. According to more of what's also been glaringly obvious for anyone who has had a shred of independent thought:

The war is splitting the conservative coalition over which Trump once had an iron grip, worrying some Republicans close to the White House. Longtime Trump allies such as Fox News host Laura Ingraham have used their platforms to express concerns about how the war might affect Republicans in November’s midterm elections. On Monday, she said the “clock is ticking” to the midterms.

“Netanyahu has led us into a horrible conflict filled with lies,” Steve Bannon, a longtime Trump adviser, said. “People can see with their own eyes what’s going on.”

While this part about Netanyahu is true, it is ultimately President Trump who made the decision, after for years prior - and especially on the campaign trail - articulately spelling out that attacking Iran and starting new Mideast wars would be one of most idiotic foreign policy moves a president could make.

Trump on Thursday said he would take funds from Iran to pay for damage inflicted on US bases and assets throughout the war. Iran responded in the following...

Seizing another nation's assets to pay for unrelated future claims is an incendiary precedent.

Those who celebrate or profit from such funds should remember: once governments normalize confiscation, no one's assets are safe. Ensuing chaos will not be pretty or peaceful.

— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) July 24, 2026

Perhaps the utter folly of Operation Epic Fury has finally begun to dawn on the president. WSJ also observed that "Last month, the president was so excited at the prospect of signing the memorandum of understanding with Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz that he was dismissive of Republican allies who said the Iranians would never stick to the agreement, according to a senior administration official. He wanted it to be over, Trump told them."

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/24/2026 - 12:45

Nine Potential Commodity Wildcards As "Once-A-Decade" Shocks Become New Normal

A growing number of institutional desks sounded alarms over physical commodity markets this week as maritime chokepoint disruptions intensified across the Gulf.

Goldman Sachs, RBC Capital Markets, JPMorgan, and others warned that a tightening physical market could keep Brent firmly in triple-digit territory and drive prices sharply higher if the disruptions persist.

Joining the conversation was Citigroup Senior Commodities Strategist Eric Lee, who warned Thursday that commodity markets have entered an era of near-constant disruption, with geopolitical, climate, and technological shocks increasingly overwhelming traditional supply-and-demand analysis.

Lee warned:

Commodities markets are in an era where geopolitical, climate and technological shocks routinely overwhelm traditional supply-demand analysis. Rather than only what is most likely, investors need to consider what is plausible, and what markets are least prepared for.

The frequency of major commodities market disruptions appears to be rising. Events once considered "once -a-decade" now seem to emerge every year, or even every six months.

Since the early 2000s, markets have navigated the Global Financial Crisis, the Arab Spring, the US shale revolution, OPEC's strategic policy shifts; since 2020, wildcards include COVID-19, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, trade wars, gold-positive macro concerns, weather-driven agricultural disruptions, and repeated Middle East conflicts.

Timeline showing notable wildcards and shocks impacting commodities, 2000-2026

List of notable wildcards and shocks impacting commodities:

Lee outlined nine high-impact commodity-market wildcards for the second half of 2026 and beyond, warning that the scenarios are not base-case forecasts but risks with consequences too large for investors to ignore:

1. US-Iran conflict goes from temporary shock to multi-year disruption of Gulf oil production capacity, driving crude oil to $150+, wholesale refined products to $200+, US retail gasoline to $6/gal sustained.

2. Russia-Ukraine escalation drives renewed oil and gas export restrictions: this could be even more bullish for global gas than for oil.

3. Critical minerals hoarding goes into overdrive: drives copper to $20k/t and more.

4. Gold falls another 15–20% near-term before doubling.

5. Hyper El Niño and other extreme weather: drives ag price spikes, e.g. cocoa back to >$10k/t.

6. AI boom and bust: buffet electricity, natural gas, uranium, and power-infrastructure metals like copper and aluminium one way, and gold the other way.

7. Trade war hits US farmers again: US-China trade war resumes, hitting US ag exports, which could push corn below $4.2/bu and soybeans below $10/bu.

8. 2030 LNG glut worsens on Russian Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline to China: driving global LNG prices like JKM down to $5–6/MMBtu.

9. Monroe Doctrine extreme: US blockades all Americas oil exports, driving global oil prices to well above $100/bbl, while US benchmarks might be discounted by over $30/bbl.

A look at the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM), a widely tracked commodity-futures benchmark, shows the broader complex, spanning energy, agriculture, metals, and livestock, continuing to climb from its Covid-era lows.

Professional subscribers can access deeper commodity analysis at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/24/2026 - 12:40

AI Capex Depreciation Risk Is The Catch To Record Earnings

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

The second-quarter earnings season is in full swing. So far, the results are landing in line or better than the upwardly revised Wall Street estimates. That’s the opposite of how this usually works. Analysts normally trim their forecasts as a year wears on. In 2026, they’ve done the opposite. The S&P 500 is on track to grow earnings north of 20% for a second straight quarter. The earnings are real. However, a meaningful slice of them is also an accident of accounting timing. That timing, the AI capex depreciation risk, hasn’t hit the income statement yet. But it is about to turn from a tailwind into a headwind.

Alphabet handed investors a live example last week. The headline read earnings up 294%. Peel back a $99 billion paper gain on its stakes in Anthropic and SpaceX, and per-share earnings came in around $2.85 against a $2.88 estimate, with the core business growing a solid but ordinary 30%.6 That gain is one kind of distortion, and it can reverse the moment those private valuations move. The distortion this piece is about is quieter and larger, the depreciation bill on the AI buildout that today’s reported earnings have barely begun to absorb.

The Golden Window

Currently, the entire earnings growth story is concentrated in the semiconductor and AI-infrastructure names. The accounting underneath it is where the catch hides.2 Here is what I mean. When Nvidia sells a chip, it books the revenue and the profit almost immediately. The hyperscaler buying that chip does the opposite. It records the purchase as a capital asset and spreads the cost across years through depreciation. So the seller’s earnings jump now, while the buyer’s costs arrive later, in slow motion.

Here’s what makes this run unusual. Analysts normally walk their forecasts down as the year unfolds. Over the past five years, consensus has trimmed full-year estimates by about 2% on average at this point on the calendar.4 In 2026, they’ve gone the other way. The full-year S&P 500 earnings growth estimate has climbed from roughly 14% in February to north of 23% now, a swing of nearly nine percentage points in the wrong direction for anyone expecting the usual fade. With Q2 results landing through late July, that bar keeps moving higher.

That upward march is the golden window in motion. Every beat this quarter lifts the bar for the next one, and the more confidently the Street marks earnings higher, the more those forward numbers lean on costs that haven’t shown up yet. Make no mistake: this is the same setup I flagged in “Earnings Estimate Revisions Are Very Optimistic.” The AI capex depreciation missing from today’s numbers is exactly what those rising estimates are quietly assuming away.

Todd Castagno at Morgan Stanley calls this “a golden window where everybody looks good.”2 He’s right. Revenues and margins look strong among chipmakers and the companies buying the chips at the same time, which is exactly the kind of broad, simultaneous strength that convinces investors a cycle is durable rather than borrowed from the future. Make no mistake, there’s nothing improper here. This is how companies book capital assets. What’s different this cycle is the sheer scale of the spending, and the eventual AI capex depreciation is being overlooked.

Where The Bill Actually Lands

Here’s the problem with the everything-is-fine read. The spending is enormous, and it shows up in cash long before it shows up in earnings. The five biggest hyperscalers, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle, spent about $412 billion on capex in 2025.2 For 2026, the estimates run to roughly $760 billion.2,3 Yet the AI capex depreciation and amortization that those companies expect to recognize against all that spending in 2026 is only about $211 billion.

Read those two numbers again. They’re spending $760 billion and expensing $211 billion. The other $549 billion sits on the balance sheet, waiting. It becomes an earnings cost later, once the equipment goes into service and the AI capital depreciation clock starts. A good chunk of it isn’t even running yet, because the data centers housing it are still under construction.

The cleanest way to see the gap is the cash. For 2026, combined free cash flow at those five companies is projected to fall 91% to about $16 billion, while net income is projected to rise 25% to roughly $506 billion.2 A business can report half a trillion dollars of profit and throw off almost no cash in the same year. That’s not fraud. That’s depreciation timing. You don’t have to wait for the full-year math to see it. In the second quarter alone, Alphabet spent $44.9 billion on capital projects, more than double a year earlier, and its free cash flow swung to negative $5.9 billion even as it booked $40.8 billion of operating income.6 The cash is already walking out the door. The reported profit hasn’t flinched.

The Number Nobody Can Model

However, here is where it gets interesting. If depreciation is the future cost of today’s earnings, you’d want analysts to have a tight handle on it. They don’t. Look at the consensus estimates for Meta in 2028. The standard deviation of the revenue forecasts is just 4% of the average. The standard deviation on the depreciation-and-amortization forecasts blows out to 24%, six times wider.2 Translation: analysts broadly agree on what Meta will sell. They have almost no agreement on what it will cost to run the machines that produce it.

Why so uncertain? A few reasons. Most of these firms only shifted from asset-light to capital-heavy models in the past few years, so there’s little history to model against. Companies also have wide latitude to lengthen or shorten the useful lives they assign to equipment, and that single assumption swings the annual depreciation number significantly. On top of that, a growing share of the buildout is financed off-balance-sheet. As David Zion of Zion Research Group puts it, consensus depreciation estimates “could be systematically understated.”2 

You can already hear the pressure building in the guidance. On last week’s call, Alphabet’s finance chief told analysts the infrastructure ramp will keep weighing on the income statement through higher depreciation expense.6 Management knows the bill is coming. What nobody can pin down is how large it gets.

That table is the entire bull case in five rows. The market isn’t paying for the $16 billion. It’s paying for the snapback to $387 billion. And the snapback is an assumption, not a result.

“You’re paying 22 times earnings today for profits whose single biggest future expense the analysts modeling them can’t agree on within a quarter of a trillion dollars. That’s the catch.”

“But The Revenue Will Come”

Let me steel-man the optimists, because they aren’t wrong about everything. The consensus view holds that capex growth tapers after 2026 while revenue keeps climbing, so free cash flow rebounds in a clean “V.” The same forecasts that show $16 billion in free cash flow this year also show it recovering to $185 billion in 2028 and $387 billion in 2029, with earnings compounding at around 20% a year through the end of the decade.2 If that plays out, today’s multiple looks reasonable in hindsight, and the depreciation wave gets buried under a bigger revenue wave.

Put real numbers on the bet. Consensus has the five hyperscalers’ capex climbing from $412 billion in 2025 to roughly $760 billion this year, then to about $820 billion in 2027 and $930 billion in 2028.2,5 Watch the growth rate, not the level. Spending jumps 84% into 2026, then the annual increase collapses to single digits. That deceleration is the entire argument. If capex growth stalls while net income keeps compounding near 20% a year, free cash flow snaps back on its own, because the cash stops rushing out the door faster than it comes in. The chart below is the bull case drawn to scale.

It’s a coherent story. It also leans on a capex taper the same companies have run straight through at nearly every guide. Each time the Street pencils in a slowdown, the next quarter’s guidance lands higher. The 2026 consensus alone climbed from about $600 billion last November to $760 billion by February.3 So the model that gets you back to $387 billion of free cash flow assumes spending discipline from an industry that hasn’t shown any. Last week made the point again. Alphabet lifted its 2026 capital budget to as much as $205 billion, up from $190 billion just a quarter earlier, and told investors to expect spending to rise significantly again in 2027.6 That is the opposite of a taper.

Maybe. But notice everything that case requires. It needs capex to slow on schedule, revenue to accelerate on schedule, and depreciation that everyone admits they can’t model to behave itself along the way. Bob Farrell’s Rule #9 has aged well for a reason. When all the experts and forecasts agree, something else usually happens. The V-shaped recovery isn’t a forecast. It’s an assumption wearing a forecast’s clothes.

The issue is NOT whether AI is real. It is. The issue is whether the price already paid assumes a clean landing that the people closest to the numbers can’t promise.

What This Means For Your Portfolio

So what do you do with it? Start with the multiple. The S&P 500 trades around 22 times forward earnings, above its historical average, and that’s before the depreciation wave ramps.1 If the forward earnings inside that ratio are flattered by deferred costs, then the real multiple on fully loaded earnings is higher than the sticker says. You’re paying more than it looks.

I made a related point last month in Earnings Estimate Revisions Are Very Optimistic. Strip AI infrastructure out of the index, and the other 470-odd companies have seen their 2026 earnings estimates revised lower over the prior 17 months. This is the same warning from a different angle. The index’s earnings engine is concentrated in a handful of names. Notably, a chunk of those names’ reported profits carries a deferred bill that the consensus is probably underpricing. Concentration risk and earnings-quality risk are now stacking on top of each other. I walked through the valuation side of this in Parabolic Semiconductor Rally Is Pricing In 2028 Already as well.

While we continue to hold AI infrastructure positions. But we also continue to manage that risk. We will trim the names that have done the most work, hedge the largest exposures while protection is still cheap, and you keep dry powder for the first real disappointment. Howard Marks has spent a career making the same point. The riskiest moment is usually the one that feels the safest.

The AI capex depreciation wave is coming. That part isn’t in dispute. The only open questions are how big it is, when exactly it lands, and whether the revenue arrives in time to absorb it. Right now, the market is answering all three with optimism and pricing the answer as though it were already known. When the first hyperscaler guides depreciation higher than the Street modeled, the golden window closes fast. Better to position for that before the tape forces the issue.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/24/2026 - 12:20

Russian Attack On Arms Expo Near Kiev Kills 10, Just After Zelensky Hosts Raytheon Execs

Russia just escalated against Western backers of Ukraine in a big way. On Friday a major Russian missile strike was carried out in Kyiv Oblast where representatives of Ukraine's defense industry had gathered for a demonstration event.

These types of defense tech gatherings occur semi-frequently, are somewhat secretive, and typically involve American and European defense companies demonstrating new weapons systems, particularly in the realm of drone warfare. These events also sometimes involve the Ukrainians showing off their own advancing capabilities to international customers.

Handout image of defense expo strike aftermath.

So bottom line is that in targeting the event, Russia is strongly signaling it is willing to strike locations known to potentially have Western officials present. It may be lashing out after the US reportedly agreed (tentatively at least) to give Ukraine licensing rights to produce its own Patriot missile defense shield.

The Friday ballistic missile strike near the Ukrainian capital killed 10 people and injured almost 100 others.

The timing is interesting given the attack came a mere day President Volodymyr Zelensky met nearby with with senior representatives of Raytheon, the US company that produces Patriot air defense systems. Raytheon has yet to provide public comment or confirm whether any of its representatives were at the event. The Thursday delegation was headed by Raytheon Vice President Joseph DeAntona.

Zelensky in a meeting with a delegation Raytheon in Kiev on Thursday. Handout via Ukrainian Presidential Press Service

Zelensky has said an investigation is underway amid public outrage, given the gathering seemed to lack legitimate operational security and secrecy, and seemed to be 'out in the open'. It was a rare daytime attack, but the precise location has not been disclosed by local authorities. But the event was reportedly openly advertised on social media.

Some details have been revealed via local media:

According to Ukrainska Pravda portal, a site on which a technology event took place has been targeted by a Russian attack. It has been confirmed by the Ukrainian Council of Defence Industry that Russian forces carried out a missile strike on a site in Kyiv Oblast where representatives of Ukraine’s defence industry had gathered. It was a practical demonstration event, Defense Demo Day & Defense Expo Critically Protected, organized by ARMADA, Association of Manufacturers of Unmanned Systems and Associated Technologies. As stated by the organizers, the purpose of the event was to present comprehensive solutions for protecting critical infrastructure from modern aerial threats.

"An investigation will establish who made the decision to hold the event... and whether the risks were properly assessed under martial law," prosecutor general Ruslan Kravchenko announced in the aftermath.

🇷🇺💥🇺🇦 Russian missiles struck the "Armada" arms exhibition in Kapitanovka, Kiev region, held on the grounds of the "Civil Safety Academy" shooting range. The event showcased small arms, drones, and combat gear for Ukraine's military and defense industry — vendors, buyers, and… pic.twitter.com/TCJjZ1yX08

— DD Geopolitics (@DD_Geopolitics) July 24, 2026

Previously explosions were widely reported in the capital area, and residents were called on to stay in shelters as air defense systems were operating.

"A rescue operation is currently under way in the Kyiv ⁠region following a Russian missile strike," Zelensky further announced on Telegram. Acting ‌governor of Kyiv region Ruslan Oliynyk affirmed that a ballistic missile ‌strike hit a private training ground while defense expo events were ⁠taking place.

Just the day prior at the presidential office...

Met with a Raytheon team led by Vice President Joseph DeAntona. Raytheon is a very strong defense company, and Ukraine has long been using its equipment to protect our people from vicious Russian attacks.

I am grateful for the company’s readiness to take our partnership to an… pic.twitter.com/zPqXdQp5ig

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) July 23, 2026

Al Jazeera's Audrey MacAlpine is in the Ukrainian capital, and she has pointed out: "It’s quite irregular for Russian attacks, especially ballistic ones, to take place during the daytime hours so this marks something new."

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/24/2026 - 12:00

Gas Prices Nearing Levels That Could Push Trump Towards Iran Talks, Says JPM Commodities Expert

One of the main macro drivers this week remains the Gulf energy shock, as chokepoints from the Strait of Hormuz to Bab el-Mandeb are disrupted. Turmoil in the Black Sea between Russia and Ukraine is also sending chills through commodities desks.

Related energy coverage:

• RBC Commodities Chief Warns "War Entering Dangerous Phase" As Chokepoint Chaos Risks Oil Above 2008 Peak

Brent crude is back above $100 a barrel, while WTI has reached $92, pushing Treasury yields higher, tightening financial conditions and weighing on duration-sensitive and consumer-facing stocks.

At the start of the week, AAA data showed that while prices vary across states...

... the national average for regular gasoline had exceeded the politically sensitive threshold of $4 per gallon.

And going higher...

JPMorgan's head of Global Commodities Research and Strategy, Natasha Kaneva, told clients that Brent should average about $94 a barrel if the conflict is contained to one month, with each additional month of disruption adding roughly $7 to $8 as global inventories shrink.

Kaneva warned that a three-month disruption could lift Brent to around $114, while a 1 million barrel-per-day recovery in Chinese imports would add another $3 to fair value.

Related:

• Three Levers China Is Pulling To Weather Gulf Energy Shock; How Long Can Beijing Hold Out?

Under her base case, Brent averages $86 in Q3 and $80 in Q4, allowing gas prices to fall from just under $4 in August to about $3.30 by year-end.

However, she noted that another month of disruptions across the maritime chokepoints would push pump prices toward $4.20, while a two-month extension could lift them above $4.50.

Kaneva also pointed out that the $4.20 and $4.50 thresholds are where the Trump administration would likely face intensified political pressure to negotiate with Iran.

In the previous round of escalations, negotiations were initiated once US gasoline prices reached $4.20 and became materially more urgent as prices neared $4.50 (Figure 10). Oil may be a global commodity, but political tolerance for high energy prices remains overwhelmingly domestic

Separately, gasoline above $4 represents a line in the sand at which working-poor consumers begin trading down at convenience stores and gas stations, while broader sentiment shifts to the downside, which only means the political pressure heats up for Trump when gas prices rise north of $4.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/24/2026 - 11:20