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Senate Passes War Powers Resolution In Rebuke Of Trump Policy

The US Senate on Tuesday passed a war powers resolution - a symbolic rebuke of President Donald Trump which calls for an end to the US-Israeli war against Iran, and requires explicit authorization from Congress.

The Democrat-led concurrent resolution passed by a narrow 50-48 vote, seeking to constrain President Donald Trump’s ability to wage war against Iran. The measure had previously cleared the House of Representatives on June 3.

US President Donald Trump looks on as he stands in front of the VC-25B aircraft gifted by Qatar that will be used as Air Force One, at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, June 19, 2026. ELIZABETH FRANTZ / REUTERS

The resolution serves as a symbolic rebuke of the military campaign Trump launched against Iran on February 28. However, it lacks clear legal enforceability, as it does not require the president’s signature under the 1973 War Powers Resolution. A 1983 Supreme Court ruling held that such measures must be presented to the president for signature or veto to carry legal effect. The Trump administration has long maintained that the War Powers Act is unconstitutional and therefore not binding.

Tuesday’s vote came days after the Trump administration signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran that established an immediate ceasefire and outlined ongoing negotiations for a more lasting diplomatic resolution.

Democrats had made several prior attempts to pass a war powers resolution on the Iran conflict, but previously fell short in the Republican-controlled Senate.

“We’re once again going to put Republicans on record on whether they want this disastrous war - Trump’s disastrous war - to continue by forcing a vote,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said at a press conference before the vote.

Four Republicans joined Democrats in support: Sens. Rand Paul (R-KY), Susan Collins (R-ME), Bill Cassidy (R-LA), and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK). Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) voted with most Republicans in opposition. Sens. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Dave McCormick (R-PA) did not vote.

Meanwhile, hawk are pissed over the MOU... Last week, Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Roger Wicker (R-MS) told Reuters that he's concerned the framework Trump entered into "negotiates away" U.S. military successes against Iran, and unduly constrains Israeli military operations in Lebanon, the Epoch Times notes further. 

In a June 17 post on X, Cassidy also criticized the memorandum as not doing enough to curb Iran's nuclear program while reducing military and economic pressure against Tehran.

"Before the war, the strait was open, Iran was being crushed by sanctions, and 13 service members were still alive. Now, 13 Americans are dead, families have paid billions at the pump, sanctions will be lifted, and the bombing has stopped," Cassidy wrote. "This is the worst foreign policy blunder in decades."

Trump has defended his handling of the Iran conflict and his decision to enter into the memorandum of understanding, which sets an initial 60-day window for continued negotiations.

"We didn't meet out of desperation, Iran did. They are FINISHED!" Trump wrote in a June 19 post on Truth Social. "We'll play out the 60 days. They get no money, not ten cents!

Trump has repeatedly threatened that military action could resume if Iran violates the current framework for negotiations. Large numbers of U.S. forces also remain in the Middle East, postured to potentially resume operations.

Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) voiced support for the deal in an interview with KCMO Radio, saying Trump chose "a path to lasting peace - not another forever war."

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/24/2026 - 17:40

DARPA's X-Plane Designed To Maneuver With Bursts Of Air Gets New Wings Attached

Authored by Chris Young via Interesting Engineering,

Boeing subsidiary Aurora Flight Sciences has begun installing the wings on the X-65, an experimental drone developed under DARPA's Control of Revolutionary Aircraft with Novel Effectors (CRANE) program.

Technicians mounting the wings onto the X-65 experimental drone.Aurora Flight Sciences / X

The installation brings DARPA and Aurora a step closer to flying the unconventional uncrewed aircraft, which was designed to test flight control using only bursts of pressurized air instead of conventional moving surfaces.

The X-65's active flow control

The X-65's key innovation lies in its active flow control (AFC) system. Fourteen AFC effectors embedded across the aircraft's lifting surfaces use jets of high-pressure air to manage roll, pitch, and yaw.

This will either replace or supplement traditional flaps and rudders. The X-65 incorporates both systems to establish performance baselines before transitioning to AFC-only operation. Essentially, it will allow researchers to flight test the technology while minimizing risk.

"The X-65 conventional surfaces are like training wheels to help us understand how AFC can be used in place of traditional flaps and rudders," Dr. Richard Wlezien, former CRANE program manager at DARPA, said in a 2024 press statement. Sensors will compare the two approaches to evaluate potential benefits.

Aurora Flight Sciences announced the wing's arrival on social media, noting that the components were built at its West Virginia facility. Integration is underway in Virginia, with the first flight now targeted for 2027.

Novel effectors to enhance survivability

The X-65 features a co-planar joined wing configuration with triangular wing sections on each side that merge at the tips, plus small extensions for a total wingspan of 30 feet.

The triangular wings support testing across multiple sweep angles and feature modular, swappable sections for future AFC configurations.

The aircraft also includes a twin vertical tail, a chin air intake, and a single exhaust. The uncrewed aircraft has a gross weight of approximately 7,000 lbs.

DARPA kick-started the CRANE program in 2020. Though Aurora has advanced to the detailed design and fabrication phases, the program has encountered delays and cost overruns, as reported by The War Zone.

Original flight plans for 2025 slipped after higher-than-expected prototype costs and supply chain issues. Pentagon funding for the effort since fiscal year 2024 has reached nearly $63 million.

Eliminating moving control surfaces could yield multiple advantages. Removing moving parts could result in improved aerodynamics and efficiency, particularly at high altitudes. Reduced mechanical complexity also offers potential weight savings, lower maintenance demands, and greater reliability. For military applications, such systems could have enhanced survivability against battle damage.

The technology holds particular promise for stealth aircraft. Traditional control surfaces create gaps and protrusions that increase radar cross-section and require constant adjustments in fly-by-wire systems. AFC effectors embedded flush with the airframe could help maintain smoother external contours and lower observability.

An artist’s render of the X-65 drone. Source: Aurora Flight Sciences / X Tyler Durden Wed, 06/24/2026 - 17:20

Bessent: Rate Cuts Don't Have To Break The Dollar

With rate-hikes increasingly back 'on the table' fort Fed Chair Warsh's 'regime change' last week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says that cutting interest rates won't necessarily lead to a weaker dollar - arguing that "you can have a strong dollar when rates are being cut" because if the fed is cutting because inflation is falling, while the economy stays strong - capital keeps flowing in and the dollar holds. Of course, that all depends on why the fed is cutting... 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent at the Economic Club of New York, on June 23. Photographer: Krisanne Johnson/Bloomberg

Speaking on CNBC's Squawk Box on Wednesday, Bessent said the U.S. can return to 3% growth this year, that inflation will fall back to the Federal Reserve's target now that the Iran conflict has eased, and that artificial intelligence is on track to at least double productivity - the recipe for maintaining a strong dollar while cutting rates. He also defended the administration's emerging Iran deal and its handling of frozen Iranian assets.

The comments followed a Tuesday night speech at the Economic Club of New York's America 250 gala, where Bessent set out a five-part framework he calls economic statecraft, which he defined as the use of American economic power "in service of our sovereignty."

Citing Hamilton's view that a nation "ought to endeavor to possess within itself all the essentials of national supply," he argued that decades of chasing the lowest cost had left the U.S. dependent in areas that matter: semiconductors, AI, quantum computing, advanced manufacturing, shipbuilding, critical minerals and pharmaceuticals. A supply chain, he said, can no longer be judged on price alone, but on whether it survives a crisis, withstands coercion and keeps running through a pandemic or a cyberattack.

On the eve of America’s 250th anniversary, the most fitting way to honor those who founded this great nation is to meet the pressing challenges of our own time with the same resolve that they brought to theirs.

Last night at @EconClubNY, I made clear that under @POTUS’… pic.twitter.com/uNWTAwVcsU

— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (@SecScottBessent) June 24, 2026

Bessent said market access is now conditional, carrying "non-negotiable obligations" for partners that want U.S. capital and the dollar's plumbing while keeping their own markets closed. He also argued that whoever writes the standards for digital assets, stablecoins and tokenized finance will shape the century, and that those rules should be written in Washington. On financial leadership, he said there is "nothing accidental about the dollar's place in the world," calling reserve-currency status both an advantage and an obligation to police the system. The fifth principle was that the payoff is supposed to reach households, not only trading floors.

Wednesday morning, Bessent leaned on AI as the driver - citing the late Alan Greenspan's read of the 1990s and suggesting the current buildout, with hyperscalers such as Meta and Google set to spend on the order of $750 billion, could at least double productivity again. He credited financial deregulation with unlocking roughly $3 trillion in lending capacity, and said the deficit-to-GDP ratio could also carry "a three in front of it" by the end of President Trump's term, though he would not commit to progress this year.

On the Fed, Bessent said he is confident in Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and praised the move away from rigid forward guidance and dot-plot projections. He said the president understands that "the bond market has taken out more governments than howitzers," a warning that if inflation runs hot and the Fed hesitates, the bond market will tighten on its own.

The newest item was on Iran. Once Tehran's frozen assets are released under the interim deal, Bessent said, the Treasury will oversee them, probably through an escrow account run out of Doha, and "recycle" a large share into U.S. food and medicine, including corn, wheat, soybeans and pharmaceuticals. The arrangement turns a concession critics dislike into a farm-state selling point.

He also tied housing affordability to lower rates and more supply, blaming COVID-era mortgage lock-in for low turnover. The timing fit: Trump was set to sign the 21st Century Road to Housing Act the same day.

Dollar Dominance 'Essential'

According to Bessent, the dominance of the US dollar is "essential," telling CNBC: "if you look, the new Venezuela... the dollar is going to be the centerpiece of their trade... We're seeing in the Iranian negotiations, the Iranians will be invoicing in dollars. Everything we are doing is pushing the dollar back... we're reinforcing it."

.@SecScottBessent: "Dollar dominance is essential, and everything @POTUS is doing here — if you look, the new Venezuela... the dollar is going to be the centerpiece of their trade... We're seeing in the Iranian negotiations, the Iranians will be invoicing in dollars. Everything… pic.twitter.com/5IsPYo8aSh

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) June 24, 2026

The latest move in the dollar came after the Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, dropped its bias toward future cuts and signaled that a hike this year is possible, causing two-year yields to jump to their highest in more than a year. 

Let's see if Bessent's prediction of - "Now that we're on the other side of it, prices come down" pans out. Energy shocks have a history of feeding into wages, services and expectations before they fade. The word transitory did real damage in 2021 and 2022 because it was obvious bullshit to cover for the fact that Biden-era policies amplified the damage from so much liquidity during Covid. Bessent may be right that the Iran spike proves temporary. The risk is that he is right about gasoline and wrong about the stickier core that tends to follow it.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/24/2026 - 17:00

Fauci, The CIA, And The Unanswered Questions Of COVID

Authored by Cory Franklin via RealClearWire,

Did Anthony Fauci manipulate the intelligence community (IC) investigation of the origin of COVID as outgoing Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard claims?

Gabbard recently released previously unseen documents and communications during the COVID pandemic between the IC and the key member of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, Dr. Anthony Fauci. She claims they show that Fauci and the IC coordinated the investigation of the origin of the COVID to suggest it was a natural occurrence rather than a laboratory leak. She further charges that the documents reveal Fauci's direct role in influencing and manipulating IC assessments in an attempt to discourage the lab-leak hypothesis.

It is not clear that the released information shows this, and a careful reading suggests a more complicated scenario. But what the messages do show is that an undue emphasis on Fauci's actions risks missing a more important point - the hidden connection between public health officials and the IC during the pandemic.

The two theories on where COVID originated are that the virus evolved naturally from bats to man via an intermediate animal host; or that the virus leaked from a laboratory in Wuhan, China. The first was more widely accepted by scientists and most of the international press early in the pandemic, but the intermediate host has never been discovered so the theory remains speculative. The second theory, which has gained significant traction since initially being disparaged as conspiracy, is only circumstantial since no definitive proof exists. The answer as to how COVID originated remains unknown.

Where does Dr. Fauci, the government's point man in the pandemic, fit in? He acknowledges the possibility of a lab leak, but initially came down firmly on the side of natural origin - aggressively so. He and his colleagues, notably his boss NIH director Francis Collins, attempted to publicly silence proponents of the lab leak theory. The rub is that Fauci was tangentially involved in "gain of function" viral manipulation research done in Wuhan and clearly misled Congress about this involvement.

Because gain-of-function research could have been responsible for the development of the virus in the Wuhan lab, this means Fauci has a conflict of interest on the COVID source: He could bear some responsibility for the entire affair if this was indeed a lab leak. So he has reason other than scientific inquiry to support the animal host theory. He is aware of that and has written in the past about the necessity and the attendant danger of doing gain-of-function research. He now strenuously denies it had anything to do with COVID.

Enter the IC and Gabbard's document release.

There is uncertainty over whether Fauci frequented CIA offices early in the pandemic, something he was less than forthright about in his 2024 congressional testimony. It is unclear whether or how many times he was there, in part because a whistleblower claims the requirement to sign in was waived for Dr. Fauci. What is not in doubt are his contacts with the CIA after President Biden charged the IC with investigating the origin of COVID.

The CIA asked Fauci to provide recommendations for experts to consult in their investigation of the COVID origin; the extent of his influence on the agency's investigation is unclear. At the time, some officials, aware of the potential conflict of interest, questioned in the documents whether relying on recommendations from someone deeply involved in coronavirus research could create the perception of improper influence regarding their findings. Nevertheless, the IC employed the experts Fauci recommended, who were never publicly identified. Their names have been redacted in communications and the information they provided has never been released.

The lack of transparency by the public health community and the CIA caused Republicans, led by Dr. Rand Paul, to suspect Fauci selected his CIA consultants based on their opposition to the lab-leak theory. Further, Paul proposed there was a self-justifying loop of information in which the medical experts put their thumbs on the scale of the IC report supporting natural origin. Public health officials (and some politicians who saw the lab-leak theory as a potential scandal) then turned around and used the "doctored" IC report to support the conclusions they provided to the public.

Neither of these accusations is supported or refuted by the released communications.

Again, despite Gabbard's claims, there is no smoking gun in the released documents, and the IC did not reach a consensus on the origin of COVID. The larger point, however, is one the public knew little about: the incestuous connection between high-level public health officials and the IC during the pandemic. Making Fauci the bête noire does little to advance our knowledge of what actually happened or how to go forward.

This hardly exonerates Fauci: His actions bear scrutiny because of his disturbing pattern of behavior. (Criminal charges may be a bridge too far, and in any event he has a blanket presidential pardon). Besides misleading Congress about his involvement with gain-of-function research and his attempt to suppress the views of lab leak proponents, he obscured his connection with the IC investigation. When asked, he mocked it with a snide deflection as "a conspiracy that I parachuted in like Jason Bourne." In addition, and almost forgotten today, he confessed to deliberately lying to the American public in the New York Times about "herd immunity" to COVID. This was not, as some claim, the result of incomplete information; he admitted consciously dissembling.

There is still much to be learned about Fauci's IC connection. At the same time, the released documents reveal that the IC responded with its traditional "business as usual" secrecy, the pattern they have used since the JFK assassination and before. There is absolutely no national security or legal reason to withhold the names of the expert consultants referred by Fauci, those names which are still redacted today. Those consultants are not spies, their lives are not in danger, and the public deserves to know who they are and what opinions they shared with the CIA - it is, in the final analysis, a public health question.

Also, why has there been no disapproval registered by the public health community about secret engagements with the CIA? Do they approve of this secretive collusion rather than demanding transparency? After all, the larger point here isn't to spread blame for COVID. It's to better intercept the next pandemic.

This furtive cooperation, and not Fauci, is the crux of the issue generated by the released documents. The public has a right to know about clandestine meetings between public health officials and the CIA. And if true, it is not out of the realm of possibility that there was self-serving connivance between Fauci and the agency, or that a self-justifying information loop kept the American public at bay. What would the public reaction be to that? Especially if the COVID origin turned out to be a preventable occurrence.

To paraphrase Hillary Clinton's provocative question, "At this late date, what does it matter?" The origin of COVID is still uncertain. Yet what these documents reinforce is that, despite the fact COVID killed 1.2 million Americans and caused untold economic, physical, and emotional damage, there has still been no official national reckoning. Doesn't the public deserve better? It is inconceivable that there has been no national fact-finding commission on the order of the Warren Commission (where both the CIA and FBI did lie to investigators), the Challenger Commission, and the 9/11 Commission. Why have the medical community, the press, and leading politicians stopped asking questions about the most significant event of the first quarter of the 21st century, including the nexus between public health and the IC? This is a national embarrassment.

The Roman statesman Cicero explained it best when he said, "To be ignorant of what came before is to remain a child."

And when it comes to COVID, we have been treated like children.

Dr. Cory Franklin is a retired intensive care physician and the author of "The COVID Diaries 2020-2024: Anatomy of a Contagion as It Happened."

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/24/2026 - 16:40

GOP Civil War Erupts On Two Fronts: Luna Freezes The House Floor, Trump Gets "Brother'd" By Cassidy In Senate Over SAVE Act

The Republican Party's long-simmering tensions over election integrity exploded into open warfare on Wednesday, with chaos breaking out simultaneously in the House and Senate - and President Trump caught in the middle of both.

It started, as these things often do, with a procedural knife fight.

Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) and a band of House conservatives declared they would refuse to support any rule votes this week unless Senate Republicans finally moved the SAVE America Act - the proof-of-citizenship and voter ID bill that has passed the House multiple times but remains stuck in the upper chamber. Without a rule, the House can't conduct normal business. Leadership blinked. The scheduled rule vote was pulled. The floor froze.

The House GOP is attempting to move a Senate Bill with NO VOTER ID and NO SAVE AMERICA ACT. I will have to be a NO on rules for this week (and maybe even longer) if they don't stop the games. I am not the only one. Other House Members are frustrated at the games being played. This is a problem. The President agrees that the Senate needs to move Voter ID. Other Frontline Members depend on Voter ID legislation getting passed. Stop catering to a Senate that doesn't do their jobs.

— Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (@RepLuna) June 23, 2026

Limited to suspension votes and with tomorrow already off the table, GOP leaders were left scrambling: send everyone home? Let a rule fail on the floor? Cut a deal? Try again next week? The options were all bad.

And of course, Trump then lit a match... Hours before a planned signing ceremony for the popular bipartisan housing bill (passed 358-32 in the House and 85-5 in the Senate), the president abruptly canceled it on Truth Social, declaring he would not sign the measure "until such time as we pass the desperately needed SAVE AMERICA ACT, which I consider to be a National Emergency."

The housing bill - a rare bipartisan win on affordability - was suddenly held hostage to a voting bill Democrats have no intention of supporting and that Senate Republicans still can't get to 60 votes.

The Senate Meeting Turns Ugly

While the House was melting down, Trump headed to Capitol Hill for a closed-door meeting with Senate Republicans. It did not go smoothly.

According to multiple senators in the room who spoke to Punchbowl's Andrew Desiderio, Trump arrived in a sour mood and used much of the session to vent. He hammered the SAVE Act, the filibuster, and his decision to kill the housing signing. Nobody pushed back.

Then came the moment that will live in infamy.

Lame-duck Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) - whom Trump had effectively primaried earlier this cycle - came in "guns blazing." At one point he stopped using "Mr. President" altogether and simply called Trump "brother."

The temperature in the room reportedly dropped. Trump, already irritated over Iran war powers votes, was further agitated. One senator later described the entire session to Desiderio as "more of a venting session for the president."

Cassidy, freed from re-election concerns, was apparently done pretending otherwise.

The SAVE America Act: The Prize Everyone's Fighting Over

At the center of the storm sits the SAVE America Act - the bill requiring documentary proof of citizenship to register to vote in federal elections and photo ID at the polls. Supporters call it basic election security. Opponents call it a solution in search of a problem that will disenfranchise legitimate voters.

The House has passed it. The Senate has not. And with the filibuster still in place, it's not clear how it gets to 60 without major concessions or rule changes - neither of which Senate leadership appears eager to deliver.

House conservatives have decided they're done waiting politely. Luna and her allies are using the only leverage they have: the ability to make the House floor a dysfunctional mess.

I stand with @repluna and @potus. The Save America Act must pass.

Ilegal foreign voters are electing America-hating communists. Add me to the list, it’s that important. https://t.co/rIwgothPmZ

— Congressman Max Miller (@RepMaxMiller) June 24, 2026

Trump, frustrated with the Senate's math problem, decided to take a popular bipartisan win off the table until they fix it.

And in the Senate lunch, one of the president's former allies decided the deference phase of the relationship was over.

Where Things Stand

As of mid-afternoon Wednesday:

• The House is in procedural limbo, limited to suspension votes.
• The housing bill signing is canceled.
• Senate Republicans just sat through a venting session from an unhappy president.
• A lame-duck senator called the Commander-in-Chief "brother" to his face.

In short - this is a collision of three different Republican power centers - House hardliners, Senate institutionalists, and a president who wants results now - all using the same bill as a weapon against each other.

Earlier...

President Donald Trump abruptly canceled a planned Capitol Hill signing ceremony for a sweeping bipartisan housing affordability bill Wednesday, saying he would not move forward until Congress passes the SAVE America Act, an elections measure he has elevated as a top legislative priority.

In a Truth Social post shortly before the scheduled event, Trump said the housing news conference and signing were "cancelled" until passage of the SAVE America Act, which he described as a "National Emergency."

The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act cleared the Senate 85-5, with Republican leaders insisting the CBDC restriction ride along with one of the most bipartisan bills in years. The House passed the bill Tuesday 358-32, putting the measure on a direct path to President Donald Trump's desk for signature.

And so - Trump's cancellation upended what was expected to be a rare bipartisan victory lap for lawmakers, who had sent Trump the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act after months of negotiations. The bill, one of the most significant federal housing packages in decades, passed the House Tuesday evening by a wide margin after clearing the Senate 85-5 a day earlier.

The housing legislation had drawn support from both parties by targeting the nation's housing affordability crisis from several angles. Its provisions seek to speed up construction, reduce regulatory barriers, streamline environmental reviews, expand support for factory-built and manufactured housing, and help local governments convert vacant commercial buildings into affordable homes.

Just hours before Trump comes to the Capitol for a celebratory bill signing for the housing bill, he says it is of "minor importance" and notes Elizabeth Warren's involvement.

In case you missed it, Trump is pushing for SAVE America Act and to blow up the filibuster -- neither… pic.twitter.com/6HxHFbFk0O

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) June 24, 2026

One of the most politically prominent pieces of the bill would limit large institutional investors from purchasing certain existing single-family homes. Supporters argue that such restrictions could help reduce competition for individual buyers in markets where corporate ownership is concentrated, while the final version preserves a carveout for new construction.

The measure also contains a major digital-currency provision: a temporary ban, running through the end of 2030, on the Federal Reserve issuing or circulating a central bank digital currency. The language includes protections for private dollar-denominated digital assets, a provision welcomed by crypto advocates who oppose a government-backed digital dollar.

The bill's language is sweeping: the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or any Federal Reserve bank may not issue, create, or circulate a central bank digital currency - directly or through any intermediary - through December 31, 2030.

It explicitly shields private stablecoins, carving out any "open, permissionless, and private" dollar-denominated asset.

The bill's broad coalition had made it a rare point of agreement in a divided Congress. Republicans emphasized deregulation, supply growth and limits on Wall Street homebuying. Democrats pointed to affordability, renter protections and housing access. Lawmakers from both parties had hoped the signing would mark a tangible response to high rents, elevated mortgage costs and a shortage of affordable homes.

Now, the bill in legislative limbo with Trump using the housing package as leverage to force Senate action on election rules. The SAVE America Act has been a priority for Trump and his allies, but it faces strong Democratic opposition and an uncertain path in the Senate.

That said, if Trump continues to withhold his signature - and does nothing, the bill is likely to become law regardless. Under the Constitution, a bill presented to the president becomes law automatically after 10 days if he neither signs nor vetoes it - provided Congress remains in session. With August recess still weeks away and both chambers having passed the measure by margins far exceeding the two-thirds threshold needed to override a veto, the CBDC ban appears headed into law with or without a ceremony.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/24/2026 - 15:47

72 Ships Transited Hormuz In A Day: US Energy Secretary Says 'Taking Away' Iran's Key Leverage

WTI futures briefly fell below $70 a barrel for the first time since the US-Iran conflict erupted, as tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz are showing further signs of normalization and physical market tightness continues to ease.

Bloomberg noted that option markets are positioning for ongoing normalization. Put volume is exceeding calls, with some of the heaviest trading in August and September expiries between $60 and $68. The September $60 strike put is one of the most active contracts, along with August $60, $65, and $68 strike puts. This only signals that traders are positioning for more downside as the war risk premium in crude oil evaporates.

This is why:

• Asian Refiners Swamped, Brace For Over 60 Million Barrels Of Oil Ready To Exit Hormuz

Earlier today, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright told the audience at the Reuters Global Energy Forum that roughly 72 ships carrying about 20 million barrels of crude moved through the strait over the past 24 hours. That figure is roughly one-fifth of global daily consumption.

"I could say roughly 72 ships in the last 24 hours, and 20 million barrels of oil," Wright told the audience in New York. "We have normal flows today."

He noted that even if the interim peace deal between the US and Iran fails, Tehran no longer has the ability to close Hormuz, saying the Trump administration has eroded one of Iran’s key points of leverage. 

"Iran will not have the ability to close the Strait of Hormuz going forward. That's a critical thing, that's their key leverage, and we're taking that leverage away from them," he added.

We pointed this out on Tuesday morning:

• "This May Be Iran's First Misstep - And Proof Leverage Isn't Total"

Wright said some ships are choosing not to transit the narrow waterway due to naval mine risks, instead moving close to Iran’s coast or along the southern route near Oman with military escorts. He said that full navigation could take several more weeks.

"To return to complete normalcy takes a demining of the strait, probably a few weeks' effort," he said.

Tehran’s leverage will all but disappear in the coming years as Gulf producers and oil majors are set to expand a network of pipelines and export routes that bypass the Hormuz chokepoint entirely, building on existing infrastructure designed to neutralize the risk. Read the full report.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/24/2026 - 15:40

Grand Theft Auto VI Pre-Orders Begin Thursday; Wall Street Responds...

Take-Two Interactive said that its Rockstar Games studio will begin long-awaited pre-orders for Grand Theft Auto VI on Thursday. The action-packed game is priced at $79.99 and is scheduled to launch on November 19 for PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S.

"Launching November 19, 2026, for the PlayStation 5 computer entertainment systems and Xbox Series X|S games and entertainment systems for $79.99, Grand Theft Auto VI features a single-player experience set in the biggest, most immersive evolution of the series yet," Take-Two wrote in a press release. 

The last major GTA release was GTA V, which launched on September 17, 2013. Gamers have been waiting 13 years for a major GTA installment.

Last week, Rockstar Games gave gamers the best look yet inside the new GTA game, which has excited players worldwide. This comes after years of launch delays.

Rockstar just gave us the best look yet at non-enterable buildings in GTA VI

It's not a straight up png like in GTA V and other open world games with skyscrapers but at the same time, it doesn't have anywhere near the detail as the rest of the game. What I'm really curious about… https://t.co/Q5ko9Gpawz pic.twitter.com/kVQTiGZ4VR

— Farzam (@farzam_plays) June 18, 2026

Raymond James analyst Andrew Marok said the pricing for GTA VI and launch data is "broadly in line with expectations." 

Marok's first take:

Rockstar announced pre-order and pricing details for Grand Theft Auto VI this morning. Preorders will begin at midnight local time on June 25, with two editions of the game available. The base game will retail for $80, with the Ultimate Edition (including an exclusive collection of ingame vehicles, weapons, and skins) priced at $100.

Base game pricing in line with our expectations. Based on commentary from management around pricing to value, and making the game as accessible as possible to the broadest player segment as they can, we did not expect aggressive pricing on the base game, and $80 feels like a fair trade in that department. It is slightly above the current industry norm of $70; some publishers including Nintendo have attempted to reset the bar at $80 with varying levels of success. However, if there is one game that can price at $80 without garnering significant player pushback, Grand Theft Auto VI is that game given its massive scale and anticipation.

Ultimate edition pricing also around expectations, but "high-end"/deluxe edition absent. Rockstar announced the Ultimate Edition for $100, which includes the base game plus a collection of exclusive in-game items including vehicles, weapons, character skins, and more. The Ultimate edition is priced at only a 25% premium to the base game, which would be the lowest percentage increase on an upsell edition in the post-GTA IV era for Rockstar (though given their convention of rounding to the nearest $10 for pricing, it is the closest figure they could have gotten to without "over-pricing" the SKU - $110 would have been a 38% increase).

We may not have heard the last word on premium editions. Interestingly, Rockstar announced only two editions of GTA VI in this morning's release. That breaks with their pattern of three different launch SKUs per title, which was true for both Gen-7+ releases (GTA V and Red Dead 2). The key difference this time is that we have not yet heard any announcements about the GTA VI Online launch. Given that we would expect that virtual currency bundles and/or GTA Online exclusive in-game items to be part of any premium edition that exists when GTA Online is confirmed, we still see the possibility that there could be another deluxe SKU announced when the gaming public receives more detail on GTA Online.

Separately, BTIG analyst Clark Lampen initiated coverage of Take-Two earlier this morning with a Buy rating and a 12-month price target of $290, explaining:

WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW: We're launching coverage of Take-Two Interactive with a Buy rating and a $290 PT. Later this year, Take-Two is scheduled to release the next installment of its most important and commercially relevant global gaming franchise – Grand Theft Auto VI (11/19 release date).

We expect the title to catalyze a sustainable, multi-year improvement in earnings power for the enterprise (BTIGe $10 in average earnings power over the FY27-29 timeframe) and based on other tentpole releases from the Rockstar label, there is precedent for multiple expansion throughout the prerelease marketing cycle. In tandem, we see a path to a higher share price over the balance of the year, which underpins our Buy rating and price target.

Related:

• Is Take-Two Sandbagging Guidance Ahead Of Grand Theft Auto VI Launch?

TTWO shares were muted on Wednesday morning following the release.

For the next leg up, shares need to trade north of $250.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/24/2026 - 14:40

Google's Dual Nuclear Tech Strategy Takes Shape With Kairos & GE Vernova

Google is placing its nuclear bets through more than one channel. Elementl Power, the independent developer that received early-stage capital from Google in 2025 to prepare three US sites, has now made its first clear technology choice on at least one of them.

Elementl signed an Early Works Agreement with GE Vernova Hitachi Nuclear Energy (GVH) to deploy BWRX-300 SMRs at a nearly 700-acre site in Meigs County, Ohio. 

The project targets up to 1.5 GW of power production. Elementl has already filed a PJM interconnection request for the initial 600 MW. Construction remains targeted for 2030 with commercial operation eyed around 2034.

Elementl positions itself as technology agnostic. Its selection of the BWRX-300 therefore stands out, as the design draws on decades of GE boiling water reactor experience rather than the novel fluoride salt-cooled, TRISO-fueled path Kairos Power is advancing. 

Google already holds a separate multi-plant agreement with Kairos targeting up to 500 MW of advanced reactor capacity by 2035, as we reported when that deal was first announced in October 2024.

Google now effectively supports two distinct reactor approaches through its capital and offtake commitments. One pushes the technological frontier with higher temperatures and new fuel forms via Kairos. The other, advanced through Elementl's new Ohio project, favors a more conventional SMR that could encounter fewer first-of-a-kind regulatory and construction risks. 

Both address the same core need: reliable, around-the-clock carbon-free power for AI data centers that intermittent sources and gas alone cannot satisfy.

Timelines remain distant. Even with hyperscaler development dollars flowing and policy momentum building, first steel in the ground is years away. 

GE Vernova remains one of the most well-funded reactor developers, alongside Westinghouse, as their turbine business continues to see no end in sight for their backlog of data center related orders. The company now has multiple advanced stage projects underway including locations in Canada, Tennessee, and Europe. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/24/2026 - 14:20

Oil Tanker Earnings Soar To $470,000 A Day As Hormuz Hopes Drive Tanker Frenzy

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

Oil tanker rates have soared since the U.S. and Iran announced the memorandum of understanding as oil importers scramble to charter vessels to pick up Persian Gulf cargoes in the hope these can transit the tentatively reopening Strait of Hormuz. 

One tanker has been provisionally booked to ship crude from the Persian Gulf to India at a rate that’s nine times the benchmark for the route, shipbrokers told Bloomberg on Wednesday.  

South Korea’s Sinokor shipping group, which before the war went on a buying and chartering spree to control about 120 very large crude carriers (VLCCs), will provide one of these supertankers for the shipment of a cargo of up to 2 million barrels from the Persian Gulf to India. The rate at which the tanker has been provisionally booked is 897% of the MEG-India benchmark route, or nine times higher than the normal freight cost, shipbrokers told Bloomberg. 

Tanker rates have surged since last week as the industry is preparing for a return of supply from the Middle East. 

According to Reuters, the cost of hiring a tanker in the Gulf has nearly doubled in just a week, jumping from around $106,000 per day to more than $190,000 per day. For some VLCCs hauling cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz, daily earnings have surged to nearly $470,000—a level that would have seemed absurd before the war began. 

Eager to balance continued risks around Hormuz and market opportunities emerging after an interim deal was signed between Iran and the US, shipowners have been repositioning their vessels. Some have already begun to redirect their tankers to the gulf, with around 65 empty VLCCs now able to reach the Gulf of Oman within a week. Sinokor owns around 25 of those, according to brokers’ estimates.

Since the agreement last week, four empty Sinokor VLCCs have sailed into the Persian Gulf, based on transponder signals and shipping data reviewed by Bloomberg. Three other supertankers owned by mainstream companies have also entered, adding at least 14 million barrels worth of capacity to the region. An Iranian VLCC has separately sailed into the area.

At least seven very large crude carriers have sailed into the Persian Gulf since the US and Iran agreed to an interim ceasefire deal late last week.Source: Bloomberg

The spike in rates for the Middle East Gulf (MEG) routes have also pushed up spot freight rates in other regions as the competition for who will line up most of their tankers outside Hormuz first is intensifying. 

Some of the biggest state-owned refiners in China and India have failed to procure supertankers to load crude from the Persian Gulf later this month as tanker rates are too high and guarantees on safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz lacking. 

“There are tankers available, but the problem is it's too expensive and there is no guarantee you can exit the strait,” an executive at PetroChina told Reuters last week. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/24/2026 - 13:40

Hawkish Warsh Hammers Barbarous Relic: Gold Crashes Back Below $4000 As Rate-Hike Odds Rise

Gold plunged back below $4,000 an ounce for the first time since November 2025 this morning, as a resurgent dollar and the prospect of higher interest rates bring bullion’s three-year bull market to a halt (now down 30% from its January highs).

The precious metal has posted double-digit gains for each of the last three years, more than doubling in price as central banks, money managers and retail investors all piled into the trade.

That rally ran out of steam in late January, shortly after the precious metal hit an all-time-high near $5,600 an ounce.

Chief among the factors that weighed on bullion’s performance was the outbreak of the US-Iran war.

Higher energy prices have fueled inflation and increased the likelihood of rate hikes, making bullion less attractive relative to yield-bearing assets like Treasuries.

Additionally, during the early period of the war, Gold reserves were used as a 'piggy bank' by Emerging Market nations to fund the huge increase in costs to procure energy (and manage currency runs).

Although oil prices are now falling as the US and Iran are negotiate a permanent peace deal, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh surprised markets with a hawkish tone at his first rate-setting meeting last week, putting more downward pressure on the metal.

“The primary driver behind gold’s recent decline has been a significant repricing of interest-rate expectations,” Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING Groep NV wrote in a note Wednesday.

Additionally, the debasement trade, a strategy favoring assets such as gold and Bitcoin over currencies vulnerable to inflationary, fiscal and monetary excess, has been losing momentum since President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to lead the Fed.

Warsh's statement that price stability is his overriding priority and his reputation as an inflation hawk have introduced doubts about the direction he would take, causing some investors to hedge their bets and leading to a decline in the debasement trade.

“Anyone who thinks that he is some kind of a stooge that’s been put in there to cut interest rates regardless of inflation is going to really, really be disappointed with Kevin Warsh,” said Gavyn Davies, co-founder and chairman of Fulcrum Asset Management and a former chief economist at Goldman Sachs.

“He’s not that kind of chair.”

The debasement trade - broadly defined as a strategy favoring assets such as gold and Bitcoin over currencies vulnerable to inflationary, fiscal and monetary excess like the dollar - had been one of the defining market narratives of the past two years.

“If the Fed has got the hiking bias, it’s really hard to play the debasement card,” Meera Chandan, JPMorgan’s co-head of global foreign-exchange strategy, said in an interview.

In the US, surging government borrowing and inflation running above target for more than half a decade fueled concerns that the greenback’s purchasing power would erode.

“What people were worried about was the inflation target, the Fed’s credibility and its independence,” said Jonathan Owen, a portfolio manager at TwentyFour Asset Management.

“I think those concerns were largely put to rest.”

All of which has helped push the dollar up to its highest since May 2025 (around the Nov 2025 highs)

As Bloomberg's Jack Ryan and Yihui Xie report, several major banks have cut their gold forecasts in the last week.

Though revised targets imply prices will gain from current levels, Wall Street analysts are markedly less bullish than before.

Goldman Sachs axed $500 from a forecast that now sees bullion ending the year at $4,900 an ounce, while Deutsche Bank AG cut its fourth-quarter estimate by 17%.

It seems that Specs have thrown in the towel on the barbarous relic...

As the gold price has caught down to ETF holdings.

As Deutsche Bank wrote in a note, continued sales from gold-backed ETFs showed that the usual support for the metal is “notably absent,”

Meanwhile in China, the metal’s onshore discount to Comex prices in New York suggests imports will not be a support for the market, the bank’s analysts said.

But Goldman noted that gold ETF holdings that have undershot their federal funds rate-implied level

Still, one bright spot for bullion is the continued strength of central-bank demand.

“The one pillar which remains strong is central bank demand, and we expect this to be the case for some time to come,” Deutsche Bank wrote.

The monetary institutions added to their holdings at the fastest pace in more than a year in the first quarter, and survey data indicates they intend to buy more.
 

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/24/2026 - 13:40

Mediocre 5Y Auction Tails As Foreign Demand Slides

After yesterday's solid 2Y auction, today's 5Y auction was an uglier mirror image. 

The sale of $70BN in 5 year paper priced at a high yield of 4.200%, up from 4.182% in May and the highest since Jan 25. It tailed the When Issued 4.193% by 0.7bps, and was the 8th consecutive tail for the 5Y tenor.

The bid to cover was 2.351, better than the 2.340 in May and the highest since October. 

The internals, however, a disappointment: Indirects took down just 61.60%, a big drop from 74.85% in May and the lowest since January. And with Directs jumping to 25.51% from 12.34% in May - the highest since January - dealers were left with 12.9, the highest since March.

Overall, this was a rather disappointing auction, and one which pushed yields fractionally higher from the lows of the day, although considering the big slide in the 10Y from 4.49% this morning to just over 4.40% we doubt too many will lose sleep. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/24/2026 - 13:22

"Real Alien Shit!": Downed US Pilot Reported Seeing Iranian Drones Swarm in 'Jellyfish' Formation

Authored by Antiwar.com via Dave DeCamp

CNN has reported that the pilot of a US F-15 fighter jet that was shot down over Iran during the US-Israeli bombing campaign in April reported seeing a swarm of Iranian drones in a formation that resembled a jellyfish before he ejected from the aircraft.

Sources told the outlet that the pilot reported what he believed he saw to US intelligence officials, setting off a debate within US intelligence agencies about Iran's potential drone capabilities.

Iranian state media

Above: Photo of wreckage of US aircraft in Isfahan, Iran, that was released by Iranian media after the US said it rescued two airmen who were on the F-15 shot down over Iran.

The report noted that the pilot was concussed during the incident, and US intelligence officials disagreed on whether he could recount what he saw clearly.

Describing the pilot's account, one source said: “Multiple drones interconnected and moving as one with smaller drones below the bigger drones like legs. Real alien sh*t.”

If Iran is able to control multiple drones in a formation like what the pilot described, it would mean its drone capabilities are far more advanced than what the US assessed.

During the full-scale war, the Pentagon admitted to Congress that Iran’s drones were more difficult to deal with than expected and that US forces were struggling to intercept them.

The F-15 pilot who recounted the incident was one of the airmen rescued by US special forces in Iran. According to the US military’s account, the pilot quickly recovered while the weapons systems officer, who was also aboard the F-15, took much longer to find.

A U.S. pilot who was shot down reported seeing flying Iranian drones swarm in a “jellyfish” formation. Cultural anthropologist Dr. Peter Skafish joins @LelandVittert to discuss the validity of the report. pic.twitter.com/PIrjo5VwcX

— NewsNation (@NewsNation) June 24, 2026

The US lost multiple aircraft during the incident, including two C-130s and two MH-6 “Little Bird” helicopters. Iranian officials alleged that the operation may have been a failed attempt to seize Iran’s enriched uranium.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/24/2026 - 13:00

Moscow Oil Refinery Faces Six-Month Shutdown After Relentless Ukrainian Drone Attacks

Moscow's largest oil refinery is expected to remain out of service for at least six months after suffering significant damage in a series of Ukrainian drone attacks this month, according to Reuters, citing sources familiar with the matter, after Zelensky earlier vowed to bring the war to Russian territory. Kiev and the West are flirty with massive Russian retaliation at this point, which is precisely what Putin has vowed.

The refinery is located on the southern outskirts of the Russian capital and a major fuel supplier to the whole region. It was struck at least twice before this month - as dramatic and intense eyewitness videos captured - forcing operations to halt. Meanwhile via Newsquawk: 

Russia has reportedly asked for 50k tonnes of gasoline from Kazakhstan to help ease domestic fuel shortages, according to sources.

Several attacks on Moscow refinery in a matter of days, via AFP

"Repairs will take at least six months," one source said, describing the extent of the damage at the Moscow Oil Refinery.

The Gazprom Neft operatd facility processed 11.6 million metric tons of crude oil in 2024 and produced roughly 2.9 million tons of gasoline and 3.2 million tons of diesel fuel, according to public data.

It comes at a sensitive moment Russia continues to grapple with fuel supply challenges. At the moment, the Crimean peninsula is witnessing unprecedented government restrictions on selling gas to civilians, as well as half the population suffering an electricity blackout due to major Ukrainian drones strikes on Kerch port, and in particular damage to the large thermal power plant there.

Also, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said this week that Moscow is considering a ban on diesel exports to stabilize domestic markets amid emerging shortages.

Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) previously claimed responsibility for a June 16 strike that reportedly damaged the refinery's primary oil-processing unit, described by Ukrainian officials as the plant's "heart." That's when the facility first reportedly suspended operations following the attack.

Two days later, Ukraine launched another large-scale drone assault on Moscow. Russian authorities reported hundreds of drones targeting the capital, resulting in fires at multiple locations.

Since international crude oil prices surged following the war in the Middle East centered on Iran, Russia has boosted its oil revenues as not only prices have jumped - but Russian oil was made desirable in India again - thanks to American waivers for sales of Russia’s crude already loaded on tankers in connection to easing the global crisis due to the Iran war.

Some reports have suggested Russian 'friendly fire' initially hit the Moscow refinery, the result of errant local anti-air missiles:

Rather than back down in the face of Moscow's new threats of "massive group strikes" on Ukraine, it seems Ukrainian forces are flexing with yet more attack waves. 

The Kremlin has long believed that Ukraine can't accomplish such sophisticated long-distance strikes on its own, but that it has had significant targeting help from US and Western allied intelligence.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/24/2026 - 12:40

Jesse Livermore: Old Lessons For Today's Markets

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

In 1891, at 14 years old, with nothing but the clothes on his back, Jesse Livermore left his family and headed to Boston. He quickly found a job posting stock quotes at a Paine Webber brokerage office. Livermore spent his lunch hours trading in “bucket shops,” loosely regulated offices where ordinary people bet on stock prices without owning the underlying stock.

His lunchtime trading activities earned him a $1,000 profit in his first year, and by the time he was 30, he had already made and lost a considerable amount of money trading. In 1929, he hit the jackpot. It is estimated that he made over $100 million by shorting stocks during the market crash. Such an enormous gain against the backdrop of despair made him a Wall Street legend, but five years later, he filed for bankruptcy.

The prolific trading stories about Jesse Livermore and the fortunes he made and lost are well documented in two books. The first, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (1923), authored by Edwin Lefèvre, is the better-known of the two. The second book, How to Trade in Stocks (1940), was written by Livermore himself. It conveys the many lessons of what four decades of speculation had taught him. Specifically, he presents 21 market rules. While his career was marked by the incredible volatility of his wealth, and some consider him a failure as he died broke, his market knowledge is invaluable. Accordingly, we share his 21 market rules. While the language he uses is outdated, the rules remain prescient.  

Due to the length of the rules and our summaries of each, we are breaking this topic into two articles. Part Two will include rules 10 through 21.

Old Yet Valuable Insight

Today’s markets and those in which Livermore operated are vastly different. The technological transformations since Livermore’s trading days are immense. Regulation is much better today than it was then. Market news, rumors, and narratives spread at the speed of light today compared to days or weeks when Livermore traded.

Jesse Livermore wouldn’t recognize today’s markets. However, Livermore understood that at the core of every market, the most important factor is human behavior. As such, Livermore’s rules remain just as valuable in 1940 as they are today because human behaviors largely remain the same.

The human side of every person is the greatest enemy of the average investor or speculator. –How to Trade in Stocks

Rule 1: Nothing new ever occurs in the business of speculating or investing in securities and commodities.

Market cycles repeat because human psychology repeats. The specific market triggers change, but the cycles of greed and fear continue. Today, for instance, it is AI valuations; fifteen years ago, it was housing, and the decade before that, it was internet stocks. Yet despite the differing triggers, the underlying pattern of euphoria that separates reality from fundamentals remains consistent.

Understanding this rule does not require predicting the future. It only requires an understanding of where we are in the cycle.

Rule 2: Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year.

This rule runs directly counter to what the financial services industry sells. Brokerage platforms, financial media, and trading apps are built on the false premise that more trading activity yields better results. The data argues otherwise. Research consistently shows that retail investors who trade most frequently underperform those who trade least. Livermore says that genuine great opportunities, where the risk/reward is favorable, and the trend is confirmed, are rare.

Jesse Livermore believes that most market action is noise. Treating noise as a signal is one of the most reliable ways to lose money over time.

The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street, even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money every day – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

Rule 3: Don’t trust your own opinion and back your judgment until the action of the market itself confirms your opinion.

Your investment analysis, no matter how right you think you are, is not tradeable until the market agrees with it.

Some stocks are greatly undervalued and can remain so for years. Conversely, others keep rising long after fundamental analysis no longer makes sense. The market’s price action provides real-time information about the balance of supply and demand for the shares. Wait for your analysis and the price action to align before deploying meaningful capital.

Rule 4: Markets are never wrong — opinions often are.

This is perhaps one of Livermore’s most important rules, but hardest to enact. When an investment moves against you, our instinct is to make a case for why the market is wrong. The case you make may prove to be correct in the long run. But “the long run” can be a prolonged and expensive waiting period. As he alludes to in Rule 3, markets are the collective judgment of all participants. That does not make markets rational, but it does make them the most accurate real-time measure of where the money is positioned.

We recently wrote a short piece The Market Knows What You Don’t that puts Livermore’s thoughts into the current context. As we wrote:

Humility is an underrated investment discipline. The moment we believe our views outweigh the market’s, we have stopped managing risk and started taking it. The market does not care what we think. Investors need experience and hard lessons to appreciate the market’s voice, especially when it differs from their own opinions.

Rule 5: The real money made in speculating has been in commitments showing in profit right from the start.

A position that immediately moves against you is important information. Livermore observed that the trades that produced the largest returns almost always worked from the opening entry. To his point, if you enter a trade at a pivotal point, like a confirmed breakout, the market should validate your position by moving in your favor. A trade that requires patience before it begins to work is a trade that you may have misjudged. Early confirmation is not a guarantee of profits, but its absence can be an important warning.

Rule 6: As long as a stock is acting right and the market is right, do not be in a hurry to take profits.

We are psychologically wired to take profits quickly, locking in small gains out of fear they will disappear. Per Jesse Livermore, the largest returns come from a small number of positions that are held through extended moves. Selling a position simply because it has risen is a mistake unless something has changed in the underlying conditions or price action.

It’s also worth noting that most investors also tend to hold on to losing positions too long, hoping for a recovery. The habit of selling winners too early and holding onto losers is called the Disposition Effect. Shefrin and Statman, who coined the term in 1985, describe it as the inclination to “ride losers and sell winners.”

Losing money is the least of my troubles. A loss never bothers me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong — not taking the loss — that is what does damage to the pocketbook and to the soul. – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

Rule 7:  One should never permit speculative ventures to run into investments.

Rule 7 is a follow-up on Rule 6. When a speculative position declines, the temptation is to reframe it as a long-term investment to avoid accepting the loss. The position was entered under a specific thesis with an expected time horizon. If the thesis has failed or the time horizon has passed without confirmation, the rationale for holding the position has changed. Renaming a failed speculation as a “long-term hold” does not change its economics. It only delays the recognition of a loss and ties up capital that could be deployed profitably. Know why you own what you own, and revisit that thesis regularly.

Rule 8: The money lost by speculation alone is small compared with the gigantic sums lost by so-called investors who have let their investments ride.

Rule 8 challenges the conventional wisdom that long-term buy-and-hold investing is inherently safer than active management. Livermore’s point is that passive inaction can produce catastrophic results when positions deteriorate, and nothing is done to mitigate the losses. Consider investors who held Cisco through its 80% decline from 2000 to 2002 and then waited over 20 years for it to return to its highs. Capital preservation is not a secondary consideration. It is the foundation on which everything else is built.

The graph below shows the decades during which many Cisco investors were trying to claw back from losses, even though they could have bought better performing stocks.

Rule 9: Never buy a stock because it has had a big decline from its previous high.

What matters is not where a stock was trading but whether the conditions that drove the decline have changed. Buying into a declining trend because a stock “looks cheap” relative to its former price is a costly mistake investors often make.

Summary Part One

We write articles like this as much for us as for our readers. Taking the time to compile Livermore’s rules and summarize them reminds us that we are human and prone to making investment mistakes. The rules Jesse Livermore presents, regardless of whether we agree with them or not, allow us to step back from our daily job of watching markets and managing investments and to ask ourselves some important questions that are often ignored.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/24/2026 - 12:20

"The Epitome Of Ludicrousness"

By Michael Every of Rabobank

"All-You-Can-Eat Shrimp"

“My view is that the United States could take all the seafood Greenland could produce, and cut out the middleman, and keep it from China — and you could bring back all-you-can-eat shrimp at Red Lobster.” That’s a recent quote from a Trump official in The New Yorker arguing for the annexation of that territory. As the magazine notes, the plans are both “ludicrous” and “deadly serious.” Well, loosen your belts, folks, because there’s an all-you-eat buffet of such news.

Yesterday, South Korea’s KOSPI -- in an OECD economy with top chips, consumer goods, plastic surgery, and boy- and girl-bands-- slumped 9.99%. At time of writing it was up 3.6% after news of a share buy-back by a chaebol. In Taiwan, home to cutting-edge TSMC (and geopolitical tensions) Bloomberg notes a 26-year-old unemployed man invested $60,000 in tech stocks after being advised, “buy any stock and you will make money,” as teenagers are opening brokerage accounts and trading volumes are crashing websites. This is apparently ‘the way things are.’

The EU, and Germany, the Netherlands, and Greece just joined the US Pax Silica ‘no China’ AI tech supply chain initiative alongside Finland, Norway, Sweden, and the UK; Israel, Qatar, and the UAE; Argentina, Canada, Chile, Costa Rica, and Panama; and Australia, India, Japan (which has seen China choke its supply of rare earths), Kazakhstan, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan. That’s the deadly serious part. What’s ludicrous is thinking that under this Pax there will be normal trade with China, when decoupling is the design, and that inside it anybody but the US will dominate due to economies of scale and first-mover advantage. As the US Deputy Secretary of War argues in ‘The Digital Sovereignty Trap’ that while, “The UN wants every nation to build its own AI stack,” that is “the surest way to stay a generation behind.”

Meanwhile, ‘The copper crunch: inside the US-China battle for a critical global supply chain’, underlines that frothy Asian tech and geoeconomic alliances ultimately require that metal – and there isn’t enough for everyone. That this zero-sum equation is not front and center of current market discussions, rather than the electronic/’paper’ price of assets that simply assume supplies of this key metal into existence, is the epitome of ludicrousness and deadly seriousness. Then again, we went through the same process with oil, and markets think they won that battle.

Yet Iran and Oman say they will control Hormuz and charge for it; the US says they can’t. Tehran insists it won’t let IAEA inspectors in; the US says they will. There’s no agreement on what they’d do there – watch a down-blending of highly-enriched uranium to a safe 0.7% or be shown Potemkin villages? Iran’s president stated without missiles, the country would be “just like Gaza”; a former Israeli PM said he’d smuggled Starlink systems into Iran to support an uprising, but this had been curtailed by PM Netanyahu (as a Kurdish uprising and on-the-ground drone strikes vs. Basij militia were by somebody). Israeli is reportedly behind a cyber attack now hitting Iranian banks.

Lebanon’s president rejected Israeli occupation and foreign interference, meaning Iran and Hezbollah, as Israeli and Lebanese delegations met in the US. The Israelis call the emerging deal there a “train wreck.” It will be for someone. Relatedly, the Trump Gaza Board of Peace is to ‘recalibrate’ at a Cyprus resort after a rocky first six months.

In the background, it’s reported China plans to offer postwar aid for Iran, with an eye on its energy supply. Can you join the dots there?

In the US, the Senate passed a resolution directing Trump to end hostilities with Iran, which is performative given: (1) he has; and (2) Trump can veto it even if the Supreme Court doesn’t. Then again, the entire US-Iran MoU can be seen as performative and subject to a Trump veto.

The EU’s Von der Leyen plans to visit Armenia, firmly in the former-Soviet Russian orbit, to show support for the pro-EU government there; that’s as Germany announced it will scrap plans to build its biggest warship since WW2, showing again that ambitious defense spending plans are not producing impressive results for the battlefield or oceans. Indeed, commentators are noting that Ukraine is set to be the military leader within the EU, as its accession process begins, a major shift in relative power in a very short period of time.

Besides the volatility in tech, the 10-year anniversary of Brexit shows the City of London fearing “Trump’s America may win the race,” according to Politico. That’s as the BoE has diluted its new stablecoin rules with plans for a £40bn issuer limit but no longer restricting holdings by individuals and companies. In other words, the market will be open for business – but unlike in the US, no big player will be able to dominate it, keeping everything ‘niche’. Then again, few expect any currency other than the US dollar, and its big players --except perhaps the Chinese renminbi-- to be able to dominate emerging crypto architecture.

On that front, Bloomberg notes ‘China Crackdown Rattles the Rich in World’s Top Offshore Hub’, which doesn’t seem to support the case for an alternative FX infrastructure on the financial side at least (though trade commodity finance may be a different story). And in Europe, “an historic day” was declared as the European Parliament backed a digital Euro. What role that will play in the global crypto ecosystem --with its emerging, stacked layers of: defence to provide copper, etc.; to provide AI; to provide industry and defence; to get the power to back the digital asset-- remains to be seen but it’s going to be (another) major realpolitik struggle.  

In real politics, Trump is pushing the Senate to pass the SAVE America Act, to save Republicans, who don’t want to pass it; acting DNI head Pulte is rattling cages in D.C.; Marjorie Taylor Greene joined Tucker Carlson in officially ditching the GOP (to form a ‘space lasers’ party?); and Reuters frames it that New York Mayor Mamdani’s political endorsements are testing the Democrats' appetite for far-left candidates – and it seems Democratic Socialism sells well within the primary electorate in New York at least based on the results. That, and the White House is pushing back on speculation that Trump got early access to a new obesity drug for “compassionate use.” Like I said, it’s all-you-can eat right now in many areas that are simultaneously ludicrous and deadly serious.

In the UK, King of the North and PM-in-waiting Andy Burnham is being advised to borrow new billions for infrastructure; and he says he’ll boost the defense budget; and that he will stick to the fiscal rules. Is that all-you-can-tax-and-spend, or something new in political-economy? Markets will have to wait and see.

Now back to sensibly frivolous coverage of the KOPSI, whose recent 9.99% daily decline ironically occurred the day after former Fed Chair Alan “I never met a bubble that I didn’t like” (really, that was his view) Greenspan passed away at 100.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/24/2026 - 11:45

"Democratizing AI": OpenAI, Broadcom Unveil New AI Chip As Sam Altman Pushes For Full Control Of Compute Stack

OpenAI and Broadcom unveiled Jalapeño, OpenAI's first custom AI accelerator, as Sam Altman's chatbot maker pushes to control more of its data center chip stack and drive greater efficiency to lower inference costs.

The new chip is described as an "Intelligence Processor" and was designed from scratch for large language model inference, the compute-intensive process of serving AI products such as ChatGPT, Codex, and the OpenAI API.

"While OpenAI is still measuring final performance, early testing shows that Jalapeño will deliver performance per watt substantially better than current state-of-the-art," OpenAI wrote in a press release.

Both companies moved from initial design to manufacturing tape-out in just nine months, supported by OpenAI's proprietary models and Broadcom's silicon expertise.

OpenAI said the chip's architecture is designed to reduce data movement and better balance compute, memory, and networking resources, allowing workloads to run closer to peak performance. The company said the new chips are already powering machine learning workloads in a lab.

"Democratizing AI means making advanced models available, dependable, and affordable enough for more people to use every day," OpenAI continued.

It is clear that OpenAI is forging ahead with new in-house chips to lower costs from expensive Nvidia GPUs while simultaneously expanding compute capacity.

Another key factor is control, as Altman wants greater command over OpenAI's chip stack ahead of its push into physical AI. Improved cost efficiency protects margins and could drive profitability down the road. Internal projections estimate the profitability window opens in 2029-30.

Meanwhile, OpenAI has already struck deals involving Amazon's Trainium chips, AMD hardware, and Cerebras systems as it diversifies beyond Nvidia.

Related:

• OpenAI 'Unsatisfied' With Some Nvidia Chips, Has Been Looking For Alternatives For Months: Report

Broadcom shares rose 1.5% after the news, while Nvidia shares remained flat.

How long until Altman finds a contract supplier to produce OpenAI-designed memory chips?

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/24/2026 - 11:30

Trump Admin Backs Big Reactors With $18BN Supply Chain Loans For Ten AP1000s

The Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Energy Dominance Financing (EDF) issued a conditional commitment for $17.5 billion in American nuclear supply chain loans. The money targets long-lead time components to accelerate deployment of 10 large-scale Westinghouse AP1000 reactors across up to five projects. 

Each reactor is rated at ~1.1 GWe. The combined output would power nearly 10 million American households.

Westinghouse will partner up to develop five new reactor plants, with each project involving two AP1000 units. The financing will require $1 billion in upfront equity, $500 million from Westinghouse and $500 million from the partner, before DOE loan funds flow. Westinghouse has already signed letters of intent with seven potential partners who have identified sites. 

The loans finance bulk purchases of long-lead items such as reactor vessels, steam generators, and other complex components that can take years to manufacture at fixed prices. The goal is to cut deployment timelines by up to three years through supply chain efficiencies and economies of scale.

To be clear, this announcement has nothing to do with the SMR or microreactor sector. There is no funding here for NuScale, Rolls-Royce, Oklo, Terrestrial, or any of the smaller advanced designs still navigating licensing and demonstration hurdles. 

This is explicitly about restarting the heavy forging, fabrication, and component supply chain for the only large advanced reactor design with operating experience in the United States today. Think nuclear supply chain companies including BWXT, MIR, CW, and FLS.

This is the financing mechanism behind the broader government push we have covered for months. As we reported when the national emergency framing surfaced around government backing for 10 large new reactors, and again when Cameco surged on the $80 billion Department of Commerce deal with Brookfield, the focus has stayed on proven large reactor technology.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright framed it as essential to reviving the domestic industrial base needed for large commercial reactors under President Trump's Executive Order on Reinvigorating the Nuclear Industrial Base. The target remains 10 new large reactors under construction by 2030.

Bulk equipment orders should drive down per-unit costs and give suppliers the volume signals they have lacked for decades. Conditional status still requires technical, legal, environmental, and financial conditions to be met before definitive documents and funding.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/24/2026 - 11:00

WTI Holds Losses As Cushing Hits 'Tank Bottoms', US Production At Record Highs

Oil prices are testing down to pre-war levels this morning as more tankers cross the Strait of Hormuz and signs of progress in US-Iran peace talks eased fears of an immediate supply crunch.

Vessels are transiting Hormuz with their satellite signals switched on, indicating growing confidence among shipowners about safe passage of the chokepoint, through which about a fifth of global oil supplies transited before the war. The International Maritime Organization also said it had received safety guarantees allowing hundreds of ships to exit the Persian Gulf.

Washington and Tehran have both flagged early progress in talks to end the war, although negotiations are likely to be protracted and claims from the two sides have diverged. In a sign of how much oil has been leaving Hormuz in recent weeks, the International Energy Agency estimates that the United Arab Emirates is exporting oil at nearly 85% of pre-war levels. 

API

• Crude -765k

• Cushing

• Gasoline -1.24mm

• Distillates +1.45mm

DOE

• Crude -6.088mm (-4.1mm exp)

• Cushing -1.077mm

• Gasoline -2.064mm

• Distillates -3.064mm

Crude stocks have now declined for 9 straight weeks (as have inventories at the crucial Cushing Hub)...

Cushing is now well and truly testing 'tank bottoms' with stocks at their lowest levels since 2014...

That is the lowest level for this time of year since 2004...

The SPR saw another dramatic drawdown (over 9mm barrels last week)...

US Crude production is back near record highs as rig counts keep rising...

WTI is holding near the lows of the day after the report...

Finally, a closely-watched oil market indicator flipped into a bearish structure on Wednesday for the first time since February, with Brent’s prompt time-spread trading in a shallow contango, with the nearest contract’s price below the next month’s. That structure typically signals expectations of oversupply.

There’s also been a collapse in prices for real-world barrels, with premiums for barrels from the North Sea to West Africa tumbling.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/24/2026 - 10:45

Cerebras Plunges To Post-IPO Low On Striking Admission: The US Has A Dire Shortage Of Operating Data Centers

Just over two years ago, we first penned our views on "The Next AI Trade", which looked beyond the hyperscalers and the data centers supporting the AI revolution, and instead focused on the energy and logistical needs that would be so very critical in allowing the US to dominate China in the existential race to first reach Artificial General Intelligence (which many have dubbed the next nuclear arms race due to its profound civilizational implications). It was here that we defined the "Power Up America" basket as the next AI trade. 

Yet as one can see in the chart below, after outperforming the AI Data center and the TMT AI baskets in 2024 and much of 2025, the Power Up America trade has lagged and clearly underperformed, as some investors have started to express doubt that the US would ever be able to "grow" into its massive AI computing needs... with dire consequences for record AI capex budgets, something the market has yet to grasp.

And unfortunately, with every passing day, the outlook for the US AI revolution looks increasingly more dim. 

That's because, as Canaccord Genuity analyst George Gianarikas write two months ago, "the American data center boom is hitting a formidable wall of logistical friction." He is referring to the latest outlook by Sightline Climate, which is also reinforced by recent articles from Bloomberg and others, and reveals a sobering reality for 2026: nearly half of the nation's planned 16-gigawatt capacity faces cancellation or delay, with only 5 gigawatts currently under construction.

That's right: half.

This collapsing inertia stems from a volatile mix of local permitting hurdles, community resistance, and a desperate reliance on overextended global supply chains for critical components like transformers and helium.

Taking a step back, despite over $800BN of expected 2026 hyperscaler capex, a number which seems to jump by $50bn or see every quarter,  nearly half of the data centers scheduled to begin operations in the US in 2026 "will either face delays or outright cancellations." The data, which comes from Sightline Climate's 2026 Data Center Outlook,  suggests that just 30% - 50% of the ~16 GW of planned US capacity for the year will face risks, with only ~5 GW currently under construction!

And the horizon only grows darker in the coming years. By 2027, the gap between ambition and reality widens further, as a mere fraction of the announced 21.5 gigawatts has actually broken ground. Worse, according to Futurism, data centers slated to open in 2027 are progressing far more slowly than anticipated. "Only about 6.3 gigawatts worth of computing infrastructure are actually under construction, compared to 21.5 announced gigawatts."

And then visibility drops to virtually nothing beyond 2028 as uncertainty increases materially in the outer years. According to the article, "things get even dodgier in the coming years, with the vast majority of data centers planned for launch between 2028 and 2032 having yet to even break ground. There are a further 37 gigawatts of planned infrastructure which haven’t even received a firm completion date, only 4.5 [gigawatts] of which have actually begun work."

This trend suggests an increasingly uncertain future for the industry, where power constraints and grid instability cast long shadows over projects slated through 2032.

But while one can pretend the future is irrelevant, the same limitations are visible in the here and now: according to the SightLine report, "at least 16GW of data center capacity is slated to come online this year across 140 projects. 53% will be grid connected, 3% will be powered solely by on-site power, and 25% have not disclosed their powering strategies. We expect 30-50% of these projects to be delayed. Only 5GW is currently in construction."

And the punchline:

"We expect 30-50% of 2026 projects to be delayed, driven by power constraints (25% of projects have not disclosed powering strategies), increasingly effective community opposition, and potential grid equipment shortages. 11GW of 2026 capacity remains in the announced stage with no signs of construction, despite typical build times of 12 to 18 months. Itʼs still possible for this capacity to come online, but it would need to dramatically accelerate."

As noted above, the market had been stubbornly ignoring the physical limitations in the data center rollout... until last night, when recently IPOed chipmaker Cerebras reminded everyone of just how profound the data center limitations truly are. 

Cerebras shares plunged in early trading after the newly public chipmaker gave an annual sales forecast that disappointed investors who were expecting the company to carve out a bigger slice of the AI data center market.

Like other rivals of Nvidia, Cerebras is navigating high expectations from investors who’ve grown accustomed to the rapid revenue growth and profits tied to a worldwide buildout of AI data centers. Nvidia and a small group of chipmakers have regularly blown past Wall Street estimates, creating an environment in which even solid earnings results don’t necessarily translate into share-price gains.

And at first glance, Cerebras fell into that bucket: the company said that revenue in 2026 will be $855 million to $865 million, above the sellside analyst estimate of $824.8 million. First-quarter sales jumped 94% to $193.4 million, beating estimates of $181.4 million. The Sunnyvale, California-based company reported a net loss of $14 million in the period ended March 31, also beating the estimated loss of $58.6 million. Cerebras’ hardware business generated sales of $110.6 million. Cloud and other services reported $82.8 million.

The company reported earnings for the first time since raising $5.5 billion in May as part of the biggest initial public offering in chip industry history. Cerebras has carved a niche for itself in artificial intelligence infrastructure with novel technology built around a massive chip that it says is better at running large AI models and generating fast responses for users.

And yet despite the solid earnings, the stock was punished, tumbling 15% below $200 and the lowest price since it broke for trading at $311 in early May (but still above its IPO price of $185).

Why the disconnect? After all sales easily beat estimates and grew at an impressive rate.

The answer: margins. The chip designer warned that annual profit margins ‌would undershoot first-quarter figures. Cerebras forecast adjusted gross margins of 38% to 41% for 2026, compared with the 47% it reported ‌for the first quarter.

The ⁠projection is far below those of rivals such as Nvidia's mid-70% range and Advanced Micro Devices' mid-50%, even as it ⁠came above analysts' estimates of 29.58%. 

To be sure, analysts had flagged that gross margins could be pressured by the company manufacturing relatively larger-sized chips, and as it rents back ​its own ​systems from an existing client to ​meet short-term demand while it ‌builds out more data center capacity.

But according to the CEO, the biggest challenge right now is not the chip size, but - going back to what we said at the beginning - getting enough data center space. As CEO Andrew Feldman said , “It’s a grand irony that after all this technology that we’ve invented, and Nvidia’s invented, buildings are the limiting factor,” he said in an interview before the results were released.

The scarcity of data center space is leading Cerebras to rent back some of its own systems from a customer and “aggressively” build out its own capacity, CFO Bob Komin said on a conference call after the report. It is these costs that will hurt margins by about 10 to 15 points this year, he said.(Adds premarket share move starting in first paragraph).

Which begs the question: where the hell are all the massive orders of GPUs and memory going if there are no data centers to hold them? 

We don't know but, like Canaccord's George Gianarikas, we admit "we’re a little spooked."

In a note published earlier this month, the Canaccord strategist wrote that "At this moment, count us as hand-wringers. Panicans. Doomers. We have been writing a series of notes for ~2 years called "Something’s Got to Give" and "Glitch in the Matrix" where we voice our concerns about the speed at which the necessary energy infrastructure for AI is being constructed. Add in data center moratoria. And, financing concerns. Throw in a dash of loopy circularity. Not to mention, eery similarities to the telecom bust."

And yet, Gianarikas goes on, "the happenings of the past few months have been fascinating, historic, and head-scratching. In the face of all that glitching, hyperscalers continue to up the ante - deploying increasingly massive capital to expand data center capacity. While structural inflation and rising component costs are playing their part, the underlying catalyst is simpler (at least to us): an insatiable demand for "more cowbell", driving perhaps the most profound cycle of FOMO in human history."

To be sure, this spending is very much showing up in earnings results. Look no further than semis or power-related deal announcements (e.g., Generac and Fluence) or elements of the industrial supply chain or revenue growth at some of the hyperscalers.

Or look at US GDP. As we noted a month ago when we pointed out that AI now accounts for 75% of US GDP growth, "there is a troublingly disproportionate reliance on AI spending to anchor economic progress."

But - the Canaccord strategist asks - "what about the power? Can the power keep up with the build plans? We don’t think so. Channeling our inner Scotty from Star Trek: "I can't do it, Captain! I don't have the power!""

Even the Wall Street Journal has taken taking notice. In an article published last month, they said that “America’s Data Center Build-Out Is Falling Way Behind Schedule”. Yes. Yes, it is.

As Gianarikas concludes, "Though macro market mechanics sit outside our mandate, we cannot ignore the parabolic split between the AI-enablers and the AI-dislocated. It is a stark tale of haves and have-nots - and it leaves us with a haunting question: What happens if the lights don't turn on?"

We got one answer from Cerebras. But the bigger problem is what happens if there is simply not enough data center capacity to light all the unlit components? And what will the returns be on those hundreds of billions in debt spent to fund the AI rollout? We 

ROI is not the right metric for AI. The right metric is what is the ROI assuming all the planned data centers are built and energized for the IRR period.

SPVs have made funding a non-issue (for now). But if components remain unlit, they are a $1 TN inventory paperweight

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 5, 2026

Understandably, Canaccord is asking precisely that question: "where is the capital actually going? It has to be landing somewhere. The reality, we suspect, is that mountains of expensive compute hardware are currently operating as high-tech paperweights. While the industry boasts of sky-high capacity utilization, a closer look causes that narrative to fray - at least to us. "Lit" capacity may be humming, but how much remains in the dark?" 

The answer from Cerebras is clear: "a lot"... and as more AI companies admit the unpleasant truth, expect a reckoning as the market finally asks the trillion dollar question. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/24/2026 - 10:35

CBOE Debuts Prediction Market With S&P 500 Contracts

Authored by Zoltan Vardai via CoinTelegraph.com,

Market operator Cboe Global Markets has entered the prediction markets business with the launch of Cboe Predicts, a platform debuting with binary contracts tied to the S&P 500.

The contracts are now available through Interactive Brokers and are expected to launch at Charles Schwab and other retail brokerage platforms in the coming months, according to a Tuesday press release.

The contracts allow traders to take "yes" or "no" positions on whether the S&P 500 will close above or below a specified price level.

Cboe is the latest traditional finance firm to expand into prediction markets as investor interest in outcome-based contracts grows. The launch comes days after reports that Charles Schwab was seeking to enter the sector through a partnership with Cboe that would offer customers similar S&P 500-linked contracts.

Contracts tied to the S&P 500's daily closing price are already available on prediction market platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi.

Cboe launches XSP Binary Options in prediction markets offering. Source: Cboe

Traders seek more binary event contracts

Cboe’s customers are showing more demand for shorter-dated, outcome-based trading opportunities, which led to the debut of the prediction market offering, according to JJ Kinahan, head of retail expansion and alternative investment products at Cboe. 

Cboe’s new contracts are security options that will trade within the same regulatory framework as US-listed options, providing “institutional-grade liquidity” and transparency, Cboe said.

Meanwhile, prediction market platforms have drawn increased regulatory scrutiny over political betting and sports-related event contracts.

Kentucky was the latest state to sue five prediction market platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing them of “operating unlicensed and illegal sports betting and gambling platforms,” as Cointelegraph reported on Thursday.

In January, US lawmakers proposed legislation aimed at restricting political prediction market trading by government officials after a Polymarket user netted over $400,000 on a contract related to the removal of then-Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, fueling insider trading concerns.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/24/2026 - 10:20