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BofA Downplays China's DUV Tool Production Report, Sees Only "Modest Threat" To ASML

ASML Holding NV shares in Amsterdam suffered their steepest decline in more than a year, breaking below the crucial 50-day moving average after The Information reported that a Chinese state-backed company had begun producing immersion deep-ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machines.

The Information did not cite the Shanghai-based company that plans to manufacture about five DUV machines this year and roughly 20 in 2027. The firm reportedly assembled teams from other Chinese chip-equipment firms, including Shanghai Yuliangsheng Technology.

ASML builds lithography machines that print transistor patterns onto silicon wafers. Its DUV machines are considered the workhorses of the semiconductor industry, producing highly advanced chips ranging from DRAM and NAND memory to logic and AI chips, as well as smartphone and automotive processors.

Only three weeks ago, we reported that China's leading memory-chip companies are quickly closing the technology gap with their South Korean chip-producing rivals faster than expected, raising concerns that expanding Chinese production could eventually spark a global memory glut.

First reported here on July 6

China CXMT Testing Production Line for Next-Gen Bonded DRAM, Closing Tech Gap With Korea "Far Faster Than Expected"https://t.co/oHI5VEVDRD https://t.co/93ks5sQAf2

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 27, 2026

China's largest memory company, CXMT, is reportedly testing a pilot line for bonded DRAM in Hefei (the heart of China's semiconductor industry), a technology that manufactures memory cells and peripheral circuitry on separate wafers before joining them. This process could deliver higher density and performance using older deep-ultraviolet lithography equipment, allowing China to reduce its dependence on advanced EUV machines restricted by US export controls.

The company is also developing HBM3 and HBM3E products, pursuing next-generation CXL memory, and preparing for a potential Shanghai listing. Its reported share of the global DRAM market reached 8% during the first quarter of 2026, and Apple is said to be considering CXMT as a supplier.

The US has been probing ASML for many months out of concern that one of its lithography machines ended up in Chinese hands despite US-led export controls.

Bank of America analyst Didier Scemama commented on The Information's report, telling clients:

According to The Information, China may have started production of DUV immersion litho tools. The article suggests that China have brought together immersion DUV development teams from other Chinese companies but warns that DUV advances are still "at an early stage". Yuliansheng Tech allegedly intends to produce 5 DUV tools this year and 20 next year for domestic Chinese customers, including SMIC, CXMT and Hua Hong. Of note, the article indicates that the immersion tools may be using components from both China and Japan, potentially violating export control restrictions.

Scemama continued:

China is a major market for ASML but threat likely modest

The leading domestic player, SMEE, has yet to demonstrate ArFi systems in high-volume production at 28nm or below, while reports of a Chinese EUV breakthrough have not resulted in a commercial product. China remains an important market for ASML, accounting for roughly 20% of group sales and 44% of DUV revenue in 2026. Replacing ASML would require a domestic alternative with comparable productivity, overlay and cost of ownership. That remains a high hurdle. ASML's NXT:1980Fi already delivers 330 wafers per hour and 2.5nm machine-matched overlay, while successive generations have further improved overlay performance. In leading-edge Chinese logic manufacturing, where EUV is unavailable and multiple patterning is required, even modest reductions in scanner performance could materially lower yields and increase cost per die.

. . .

We think today's weakness is an over-reaction and see current levels as an attractive opportunity.

Domestic DUV machines could eventually increase DRAM and NAND production in China, strengthening suppliers such as CXMT and YMTC while helping alleviate the global memory crunch. The report also suggests that ASML's long-term competitive position could face growing pressure, while the leverage exerted by US and Western export controls over China's access to advanced chips and chipmaking equipment could erode. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/27/2026 - 15:30

US Treasury Sells $139BN In Two Polar Opposite Auctions: A Stellar 2Y And A Dismal 5Y

Ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision (where according to SOFR futures, the odds of a rate hike are a significant 38%, even as most traders expect no action by the Fed), we had the week's first two coupon auctions take place according to an abbreviated schedule, with the sale of $69BN in 2Y notes taking place at 11:30am, followed by $70BN in 5Y notes. And while the former was unexpectedly strong, the latter was one of the ugliest 5Y auctions in years.

Here are the details.

The 2Y auction priced at a high yield of 4.315%, up from 4.189%, and the highest since December 2024. More importantly, it stopped through the 4.320% When Issued by 0.5bps, the third stop through in a row, and the highest since January. 

The bid to cover was solid, at 2.662, it was also the highest since January. 

The internals were likewise solid, with Indirects taking down 56.6%, up from 55.5%, if below the recent average of 58.2%. And with Directs awarded 34.1%, roughly flat with 34.3% last month, Dealers were left with just 9.4% of the auction, the lowest since January. 

But if the 2Y auction was strong - and thus an indication that at least the primary bond buyers don't expect any imminent rate hikes - the 5Y auction was a dismal mirror image.

The bond priced at a high yield of 4.408%, a big jump from 4.20% in June and the highest since December '24. It also tailed the When Issued 4.399% by 0.9bps, which made it an unprecedented 14th tailing auction in a row, and the biggest tail since March.

The bid to cover was worse: it dropped to 2.282, the lowest in almost 5 years, since Sept 22. 

The internals were just as ugly, with foreign demand sliding to just 59.24%, the lowest Indirects award since July 2025. And with Directs awarded 27.22%, the most since January, Dealers were left holding 13.5%, the highest since March.

In short, today's two auctions - which took place within 90 minutes of each other - couldn't be more different. The impressive 2Y showed remarkable buyside demand, while the dismal 5Y auction, separated by just 3 years in maturity, was one of the ugliest auctions for the tenor in years. Whether it is because someone expects inflation to spike aggressively 3-5 years from today (but not in under 2 years), or just jitters ahead of the Fed, remains to be seen, and when we get next week's 3Y auction, we will have a much better sense of what drove the striking divergence in today's two auctions. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/27/2026 - 15:15

Flashback: Fauci Funded Technique To Hide Evidence Of Genetic Engineering According To RFK Jr.

Four years ago, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. made an accusation that got him shadowbanned, "fact-checked," and dismissed as a crank: that Anthony Fauci's NIAID had bankrolled the development of a laboratory technique whose primary utility was erasing the fingerprints of human engineering from a manipulated virus - and that the technique was then handed to the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

With Fauci's personal diaries now public, Tulsi Gabbard's last-day document dump on the record, Ralph Baric stripped of his NIH grants and placed on leave by UNC, and Fauci himself scheduled to appear under subpoena before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee this Wednesday at 8:30 a.m., Kennedy's remarks are worth revisiting.

Here's what he said:

"He [Fauci] funded Ralph Baric to develop a technique called seamless ligation. And that is a technique for hiding the engineering project."

"So, normally, when you do that kind of engineering, you can see it, and you can say, 'That bug was created in a lab.'"

"He [Baric] developed a way of hiding all traces [of what] was developed. And he taught that to the Chinese scientists - to Shi Zhengli."

"There is no public health [reason for this]; it is the OPPOSITE of what you would do if you are interested in public health... To teach people how to hide that only has a nefarious purpose."

RFK Jr. says Fauci funded a technique used for HIDING human fingerprints on lab-created bugs.

The technique is called “seamless ligation.”

Kennedy explains the only reason anyone would try to hide where a bug came from would be for a “NEFARIOUS purpose.”

"He [Fauci] funded… pic.twitter.com/B8rBc669q0

— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) July 27, 2026

Kennedy made the same argument repeatedly around the release of The Real Anthony Fauci, and his complaint was never just that gain-of-function research is dangerous - everyone concedes that now, including the virologists. It was narrower: that U.S. taxpayers paid to develop, and then export, a capability whose only obvious application is defeating attribution.

What "Seamless Ligation" Actually Is

The technique is published, peer-reviewed, sitting on the National Institutes of Health's own servers, and was openly boasted about for the better part of two decades.

Assembling a full-length coronavirus genome from smaller synthetic fragments requires cutting and pasting DNA. Conventional restriction enzymes leave behind junction sequences - "scars" - at every splice point. Those scars are the tell. Line up the genome, spot the regularly spaced artificial seams, and you can say with confidence that a human being built the thing.

Baric's lab solved that problem. Using Type IIS restriction enzymes - which cut outside their own recognition sequence - his team developed an assembly method that leaves no residual site at the junction. The finished genome reads as though it were never cut at all.

Baric's own lab nicknamed it the "No See'm" method - and the full protocol was published in 2008 by Eric Donaldson, Amy Sims and Ralph Baric as Systematic Assembly and Genetic Manipulation of the Mouse Hepatitis Virus A59 Genome in Springer's Methods in Molecular Biology series. Its abstract describes demonstrating "the power of this unique site-directed 'No See'm' mutagenesis approach." "No See'm technology" is listed among the paper's official keywords. The underlying assembly platform had been laid out six years earlier in the Journal of Virology.

The stated scientific rationale is efficiency: no scars means no unwanted mutations at the junctions, and mutants can be generated fast. But efficiency and untraceability are, here, the same property. A seamlessly assembled synthetic genome is indistinguishable from a naturally circulating strain, which is what the method was built to achieve.

Kennedy has put the NIAID funding figure at roughly $212 million to $220 million flowing to Baric over the course of his career.

Meanwhile, Baric was the researcher most affected by the Obama administration's 2014 gain-of-function pause as noted by NPR in "How A Tilt Toward Safety Stopped A Scientist's Virus Research" - and that he was America's foremost coronavirus biologist on the federal dime. Baric and Shi Zhengli went on to co-author the 2015 chimera study in Nature Medicine that the journal was later forced to flag with an editor's note.

In Light Of Fauci's Diary...

Kennedy's longstanding claim is that evidence COVID-19 was man-made was engineered away. 

Baric confirmed the furin cleavage site was his job. In a voluntary transcribed interview with Sen. Rand Paul's staff in April, released this week, Baric - co-author of the 2018 DEFUSE proposal, key contributor to NIAID-funded work in Wuhan - confirmed that the furin cleavage site insertion described in that proposal was his assignment. Per Paul's Reading Room, he also confirmed running an experiment that undercuts the core scientific defense of natural origin, and still cannot explain how he ended up on the February 1, 2020 call with Fauci and the authors of "Proximal Origin."

Fauci's diary shows he knew on day one. The entries Paul released this weekend record that on January 31, 2020 - before most Americans had heard the phrase "lab leak" - Jeremy Farrar patched Fauci into a call with Kristian Andersen and Eddie Holmes about the SARS-CoV-2 furin cleavage site. Fauci's own contemporaneous note: they raised "the possibility that this could have been deliberately inserted and either accidentally released or deliberately released by a crazy person in the lab, the former being the most likely." Roughly half the scientists on that initial call thought the virus looked constructed. Days later, Fauci was on Newt Gingrich's podcast dismissing lab-origin questions: "I've heard these conspiracy theories. And like all conspiracy theories, Newt, they're just conspiracy theories."

A national lab said the same thing in writing. Gabbard's June 18 declassification included an eight-page May 27, 2020 assessment from Lawrence Livermore's International Assessments program concluding that "all of the necessary conditions for an accidental release of a laboratory-modified coronavirus - specifically a coronavirus adapted to recognize human cell receptors - were present" at the WIV in mid-to-late 2019. The documents are online.

Fauci says he expected their Gain of Function guy would say they shouldn't waste time looking at deliberate insertion? "Of course the virus mad scientist guy would say we shouldn't look into the virus mad scientist angle"?

WHAT pic.twitter.com/ci5JTT8TLT

— Cthocas (@cthocas) July 25, 2026

And Baric's career is over. As Paul Thacker noted, NIH has quietly removed Baric from all his grants; UNC has placed him on leave and refused to cooperate with federal document requests. Jeffrey Sachs - who chaired the Lancet COVID commission - now points at Baric directly. Robert Redfield told RCI he briefed Mike Pompeo in a SCIF in early 2020: "Mike, this is the smoking gun. This virus came from a lab."

A senior HHS official put it to RCI more bluntly: "Baric designed the gun. But the Chinese built it, and then they pulled the trigger."

The Fingerprint That Wasn't Erased

Kennedy himself never argued the erasure was total - noting a preprint arguing that Baric's fingerprints were visible after all. In October 2022, Valentin Bruttel, Alex Washburne and Antonius VanDongen posted a preprint titled Endonuclease fingerprint indicates a synthetic origin of SARS-CoV-2. Their argument: the SARS-CoV-2 genome contains an oddly regular pattern of BsaI and BsmBI restriction sites - exactly the spacing you'd want for efficient lab dis- and re-assembly, and an anomaly among wild coronaviruses. They found the pattern "more likely a product of synthetic genome assembly than natural evolution."

The preprint was aggressively contested and never formally published. If it holds, the implication is that whoever assembled the virus was less careful than the man who taught the technique.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/27/2026 - 14:45

Mapping SpaceX's Lockup Expirations: HSBC Calculates When The Shares Could Hit The Market

As of early Monday cash trading in New York, SpaceX shares were hovering near an all-time low of $110.21 after briefly dipping into the $108 handle. The rocket/AI company bonds have also come under pressure, leaving investors searching for signs of where the post-IPO selloff might finally find a proper floor.

SPCX LOD (and all time low) 110.21 https://t.co/RMbpm3ogyF

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 27, 2026

Even a bullish note from Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu failed to correct increasing bearish sentiment. Yu's post-mortem concluded that Starship Flight 13 demonstrated "solid progress" toward full reusability, but the note was not enough to spark any meaningful wave of dip-buying.

One immediate overhang in the stock may be the quickly approaching lockup expirations. Traders appear reluctant to step in front of a potential tsunami of newly eligible shares that could dramatically expand the public float and put further pressure on the struggling stock.

HSBC analysts Nicolas Cote-Colisson and Charlie Rothbarth recently provided clients with a roadmap of SpaceX's lockup expirations. The first major release could make about 912 million shares eligible for public sale on Aug. 6, just two days after the company's first quarterly earnings report.

The unlock would expand SpaceX's free float to 11.8% from 4.9%, compared with roughly 639 million shares currently available for trading, creating a potentially significant supply overhang.

Here's more color from the analysts on the lockup schedule:

Investors should also consider potential share release post-lockup

SpaceX's IPO prospectus indicated that 555,555,555 shares would be issued to constitute the free float. We understand that the underwriters have exercised their option to purchase additional shares of Class A common stock in full, so the free float would have extended to 638,888,888 shares.

We identify 4,678m locked up shares and another 8,160m shares subject to an extended lockup. Based on the information provided by the SpaceX prospectus dated 12 June 2026, we calculate that 912m shares could be available for sale in the public market from 6 August 2026, compared with 640m shares constituting the free float at present. The free float would increase from 4.9% at present to 11.8%.

Another release event could occur on the same day depending on SpaceX shares trading above USD175.5 for at least five of 10 consecutive trading days ending on 4 August 2026 (i.e. between 22 July and 4 August 2026). The table below provides further event/date triggers for subsequent share releases.

Those restricted shares are currently owned by funds and individuals that have participated in the private rounds of financing and may be inclined to keep their shares. But we think investors should be aware of this.

via HSBC

One institutional trading desk we spoke with said it plans to wait for the lockup expirations before starting a position in the stock.

Professional subscribers can find more color on SPCX here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/27/2026 - 14:05

Gold Isn't Returning... Confidence Is Leaving

Authored by Mark St.Cyr via AmericanThinker.com,

Most people are framing the conversation regarding gold wrong.

They talk about gold making a comeback -- as though the metal changed. As though something happened to gold.

Nothing happened to gold. Gold is exactly what it has always been.

What's changed is the environment around it. And that distinction matters enormously, because it tells you where to look for better insights.

For decades, people treated fiat currency as the unquestioned foundation of global finance. Gold became an afterthought -- an inflation hedge, a crisis trade, insurance against events sophisticated investors assumed would never arrive. The system ran on confidence, and confidence was abundant. When confidence is abundant, nobody examines the collateral.

However: when confidence erodes, collateral suddenly matters again.

That is what is happening now. Not suddenly. Not dramatically. Systemically.

Central banks have been quietly adding gold reserves for years. Governments have grown uncomfortable with the political risk embedded in foreign currency holdings. Institutional investors are revisiting strategic allocations they long considered settled. Discussions have surfaced around gold-backed sovereign debt. Tokenization is making physical ownership practical inside a digital financial system.

Taken individually, none of this looks like a revolution. Taken together, it looks like a system beginning to search for a more trusted foundation.

The conventional gold debate obsesses over inflation forecasts, Federal Reserve policy, and price targets. That framing misses the structural issue entirely. Gold is not becoming more valuable because its characteristics changed. Its characteristics have been constant for centuries. What changed is how much those characteristics matter in the environment we now occupy.

Every period of monetary history forces the same question eventually: what asset sits outside the promises of everyone else? That question grows more urgent as sovereign debt expands, fiscal flexibility narrows, and geopolitical relationships become less predictable. In that environment, neutrality acquires real value. Gold carries no national allegiance, no corporate balance sheet, no counterparty obligation. Those qualities have always existed. Markets are simply beginning to price them again.

Although gold-backed money deserves serious consideration -- not as nostalgia, but as a return to the classical gold standard -- it remains highly improbable. Modern governments have little incentive to surrender the flexibility fiat systems afford them. The realistic scenario is quieter than that. Gold gradually resumes its role as a reference asset. Not circulating currency. Not legal tender. But foundational collateral, increasingly preferred when confidence elsewhere continues to weaken. This is what appears to be happening far away from all the sell-side headlines.

What makes this moment worth watching is the self-reinforcing nature of the process. Higher demand supports higher prices. Higher prices strengthen balance sheets. Stronger balance sheets make additional gold ownership easier to justify. Broader institutional acceptance encourages wider adoption. Wider adoption generates further demand. These are not isolated developments. They are feedback loops.

Today, whether this ever produces a formal gold-backed currency is secondary. The primary insight is: people and governments are actively adjusting the value of confidence. Quietly. Through behavior, not announcement. History repeatedly shows that monetary transitions rarely begin with a declaration. They begin when participants start acting differently -- and by the time the new consensus becomes obvious, most of the adjustment has already occurred.

So the right question is not whether gold deserves renewed attention. The right question is why increasingly sophisticated institutions believe it does -- and what that tells us about the system they are quietly hedging against.

That answer has nothing to do with nostalgia.

It has everything to do with architecture.

Financial systems are based on confidence.

When confidence begins to fragment, participants seek assets that require the fewest assumptions.

Gold has occupied that position before -- not because governments demanded it, but because markets eventually preferred it.

And while goldbugs wait, there is now an option to collect as much as 4% yield on physical, paid out as additional ounces of physical gold, something our friends at Monetary Metals have been perfecting for years.

Gold is not asking for a larger role in the current system.

The current system may be assigning it one.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/27/2026 - 13:45

The Upcoming AI Spend Slowdown?

Submitted by Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

We have been attacking this issue orthogonally for the past few weeks.

• Last weekend’s Cheap China Compute brought up several issues facing the AI Spend.
• On Thursday we published Braggawatts (which should probably be BragCompute or something), but the concept is that a lot of the announced deals are missing some, or all of the following:
  • Enough electricity, especially at peak usage times, to fulfill their commitments.
  • Access to water and other resources to function.
  • Getting the various chips on time, connected and installed (hearing China is threatening to restrict exports of fiber-optic cables (another, in a long list of reasons why the U.S. (and others) need to pursue ProSec™).
  • Municipal, State, or even Federal regulatory approval (to the extent they are necessary).

To the extent this is true (and we also see construction cost overruns and delays) this is probably good for credit spreads, but negative for equity valuations.

Indirectly, we have been addressing two issues, for even longer. While these issues have been in the background, they are rising to the forefront more quickly than anticipated:

• Market structure (ETFs, leveraged ETFs, 0DTE options, etc.).
• The need for the AI industry to rapidly adopt far better community outreach! Our somewhat silly, AI-generated, picture of workers (dressed for casual Friday), carrying torches, storming a data center, seems less silly by the day. The AI Revolution is growing faster than we thought and is already influencing state and local politics coming into the midterms.
  • While it might be easy to ignore New York State’s recent “moratorium” (though be careful doing that, as upstate New York is far less “liberal” than New York City), it is more difficult to ignore the change in Texas.
  • Governor Abbott now seems to be discussing a “prohibition in rural neighborhoods.” That goes beyond previous discussions introducing rules around electricity, water, noise, etc. This is a far cry from when the Governor was attempting to make Texas a dominant hub for AI and datacenters!

It is quite possible we won’t see a slowdown in AI spending (that still seems to be what markets are pricing in), but the case that this narrative experiences a serious “hiccup” is growing.

The Market is Always Right

Since I spend half my time trying to fight markets, I’m not sure I agree with that, but it seemed like a good way to highlight 3 important things that happened late this week. Yes, the Philadelphia Semiconductor index bounced back this week (up 1.2%), but the Nasdaq 100 slumped 1.6%.

• INTC earnings seemed great. I don’t attempt to forecast earnings, but when the earnings hit the tape, virtually everyone I trust on social media and traditional media seemed to view them as very positive. Yet INTC dropped about 8% on Friday.
• On Wednesday, Anthropic and AMD announced a deal. Maybe I’m confused, but it seems to me that a month or two ago, that sort of announcement would have been very positive for AMD stock. Yet AMD stock fell 5.4% from Wednesday’s close.
• On Thursday, ORCL announced a $7 billion deal with the Pentagon. Seems impressive (and very much in line with our ProSec thesis). Yet, ORCL hit a 52-week low on Friday, falling on both Thursday and Friday.

At “best” this is telling us that the market is setting a very high bar for further upside.

At “worst” it is telling us that positioning is overly long, and it elevates our market structure concerns.

What Goes Up Must Come Down?

The inflows into the semiconductor space have been quite incredible.

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. (SOXX US Equity — iShares Semiconductor ETF)

It is difficult to look at this chart and not see:

• A decent correlation between inflows and performance (momentum and the narrative have worked hand in hand to bolster the market).
• A chart that looks “parabolic” in nature, which is always concerning (at least to me).

SOXX assets under management grew from $20 billion at the end of March to over $47 billion (a combination of price and inflows). Some serious wealth effect.

SOXL hasn’t had the same pace of inflows (it has had outflows since the rally began in April). But this 3X leveraged ETF has assets of $20 billion, representing $60 billion that needs to be rebalanced daily (the bigger the move up, the more it has to buy; conversely, the bigger the move down, the more it has to sell). That daily rebalancing is separate from inflows or outflows.

This combination of ETFs (and other ETFs focused on semis, including a large number of single stock leveraged ETFs) adds to my concern.

Distilling

Not the fun kind of distilling (which you may need after reading this report), but the “distilling” Chinese AI is using to speed their model “training” and make their “training” far cheaper is a real concern. You are seeing the U.S. government examining what can be done about this.

We will get into more detail on this later this week, as I’m having several conversations with Academy’s GIG members on this subject.

Increasingly I’m worried we are seeing a “rinse and repeat” for China:

• Flood the market with cheap “something” (in this case compute).
  • Maybe the “thing” isn’t as good, but it is so darn cheap, it is tempting.
  • Maybe it is cheap due to a variety of factors (unfair government support, loose (if any) enforcement of Intellectual Property protection, etc.).
• Use that pricing power to slow global competition.
• Add in some legitimate advantages China has (no concept of NIMBY, a decade or more of rapid expansion of energy production and their grid, their own legit Intellectual Property, and the production, at scale, of a variety of lower level, but useful chips).

As much emphasis as Academy has placed on ProSec™, I’m fearful that we underestimated the potential for Cheap Chinese Compute to disrupt not just our AI/Data Center Industry, but also at some level, our National Security.

This “Is It Worth It?” Narrative Shift

The media is an incredible source of information. I incredibly value my engagement with media. Not just the brief moments in front of the camera or the microphone, but all the discussions we have. Some on background. Some on views that never get published. That has been incredibly helpful, but one other thing has been of incredible use to me as a strategist:

• Seeing the shift in the media narrative before it plays out.

If you don’t think the media influences markets, you can skip this section.

What I see (and experience) are “cycles” that develop over time.

A few weeks/months ago, the media wasn’t that interested in negative stories on the AI Spend (except maybe to highlight troubles in the bond market).

Then, no strategist or analyst wanted to be involved in negative stories on the space, because it was dead wrong, at least based on stock prices.

But I believe I can “sense” a shift in what is being asked, what is being published, and more importantly, what is going to become the narrative!

This affects everyone from CEOs to strategists. What CEO was going to say they might slow down spending (either on the build-out, or the use side)? Could any CEO really say, “we’ve been seeing our token costs increase, and despite trying to use this stuff (that apparently everyone else is having success with), we are struggling to get a lot of value out of it (we discussed simple Return on Investment as a potential issue in Thursday’s report).

Any CEO who was willing to do that might as well have branded Luddite on their forehead and waited for their stock to crash as “everyone knows you need to be using AI.”

Yet, we’ve mentioned this, but one conference organizer’s comments are worth repeating.

• In 2025 AI sessions were wildly popular and received high scores.
• In 2026, attendees wanted case studies and examples (which I tend to think means that they have been experimenting, with limited success).

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. (SDLLMTN Index — Silicon Data LLM Token Expenditure Index)

I will admit that I don’t have a good grasp of how accurate this chart is, but it sounds cool. The token expenditure index has fallen further since the first time we published this. It is possible token use is increasing, only if they are buying cheaper tokens.

The reality is that this chart may support my “trying but frustrated” view, that many people seem to be experiencing (at least anecdotally and in private conversations).

How many people out there are thinking:

• Finally!
• Whew, I’m really happy it isn’t just me!
• I told you so!

None of this means that AI and Data Centers are not useful. They are useful and will continue to see their usage and adoption grow. But…

• Are current growth expectations too high? That seems possible.
• Are valuations susceptible to changes in growth sentiment, coupled with market structure? Seems possible as well.

The voice of those questioning the current utility and cost of that utility, and therefore growth is likely to rise in the coming weeks, which would be a headwind for valuations.

Bottom Line

It is completely valid to have the following thoughts at the same time (at least I hope it is valid, because these are my thoughts):

• AI and Data Center usage will continue to grow.
• The onslaught of Cheap Chinese Compute is not good for profit margins of the providers, or the picks and shovels.
• Plans to build out compute may be far less feasible than previously thought, once again changing the profit margin outlook going forward.
• While useful, the cost to use AI has increased, and it is unclear that there is widespread belief that the cost vs benefit is truly there given today’s technology and prices. Investments in technology based on “Fear of Missing Out” may slow, if companies don’t fear they are missing out.
• The media narrative may shift rapidly too, giving their bears a bigger stage to express their concerns.
• The importance of leveraged ETFs in the AI Spend/Data Center space (add in Nasdaq 100, etc.) certainly helped propel stocks higher (which people seem to ignore), and it will amplify any sell-off (and already has).

From an investment standpoint:

• Buy bonds in the space! Spreads are wide. Given Credit Default Swap activity, one can assume there are decent short positions that have been built (always a nice catalyst if direction reverses). Money managers across the globe are “making room” to absorb the “certain onslaught of new issuance.” All it takes is for someone on the build side to “flinch.” Not even going on the full Debt Diet, but cautioning on how much they will spend how quickly. Maybe it won’t happen, but while we may not be facing a “perfect storm” for the space, there are a lot of risks that don’t seem fully priced in yet.
• Buy “completed projects.” Companies with projects that are completed or nearly completed will have a competitive advantage if we see any slowdown.
• Be cautious on equities in the space. All are great companies. Almost all fit into our ProSec™ narrative. But valuations may be questioned, and as we’ve seen in these markets, prices move fast when they start to move.

Iran is my biggest concern for Treasuries. Not just the energy price inflation, but also the need for countries to spend more on defense. Even in the Middle East, countries that once gobbled up Treasuries are facing their own economic slowdown, while seeing their need to spend increase. I should probably throw in the towel for rate cuts before hikes. But, and this remains a big but, if we do see spending on the AI / Data Centers slow at all, that will help on the inflation front and will put a question mark on jobs, as so much of what has been driving the economy on the positive side is related to the Capex spending in this area! Maybe the market will just put all these questions on hold, until the end of the summer, but it doesn’t have that sort of feeling!

Hope you are all able to get some vacation with friends and family this summer, while only having to keep one eye glued to markets!

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/27/2026 - 13:05

Deep State In "Fight To The Death" To Defend Voter Fraud

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Journalist Alex Newman is an expert on the so-called Deep State.  He is the author of the longtime popular book “Deep State” and, most recently, “Deep State 2.0.” 

The Deep State is not a conspiracy theory.  It is a conspiracy fact. 

This year, the Deep State will be going to war with the Trump Administration to hold onto the voter fraud that has won them elections for many years.  Without voter fraud, Deep State Democrats lose and lose big in the midterms.  They are fighting every way they can to keep the cheating going.  

The Trump Administration is threatening fines and jail time if the Dems in Blue States “Refuse to Cooperate to Secure Elections.”  It is so bad that Harvard PhD and political expert Dr. Jerome Corsi says President Trump must “Stop Voter Fraud or Lose the Republic.”  The fight is going to get much more intense and violent before the midterm elections in November. 

Alex Newman says:

“Voter integrity is one of the arenas where this fight to the death is taking place. 

We are going to determine in the not-so-distant future if the Deep State and those who hate America and our Constitutional Republic are going to control the most powerful military and most powerful economy in the world, or are ‘We the People’ going to exert control over the government we created to protect our liberties?  

It will be a fight to the death. 

There is no option these two can end up with control of the government.  We have a long fight ahead.”

This is no small thing as the very existence of America hangs in the balance in November.  Newman says, “I don’t think the Left, the Deep Staters or totalitarians are going to roll over and play dead here..."

"They realize everything is at stake, and if they get caught, a lot of them are going to end up in jail...

We are talking about treason, and that is a key point to understand.  This is not just a little crime, a misdemeanor or steering government contracts to your brother-in-law.  This is an effort to subvert our form of government...

President Trump made it very clear that this is not just a domestic subversive movement.  He made clear there are international forces involved such as communist China very directly . . . as one of the players to rig our elections...

President Trump spoke about how Deep State swamp creatures within the intelligence agencies and law enforcement deliberately suppressed the information they had about communist China trying to manipulate and steal our elections.  What we are talking about, to be very clear, is treason.  It’s an effort to seize control or perpetuate control over the most powerful country on the face of the earth.”

If the Deep State loses total control, Newman says you can expect the very worst.  Newman explains,

“I believe there is a very good chance that this goes nuclear. 

That might be the Iranians trying to launch a nuke . . . or the Russians trying to use a nuke, or it could be the communist Chinese using a nuke. 

I think that is a very real possibility, especially if it looks like the whole thing is going to unravel and Americans are going to regain control of their country.”

The Deep State has tentacles all over the world, including the International Criminal Court, the UN and politicians installed in governments of many of our so-called allies.

In closing, Newman says, “I think we all need to be involved, and we all need to be praying for the President..."

"  In fact, the Bible commands us to pray for those in authority whether you like them or not.  We need to recognize this is much bigger than a personality and much bigger than a party.  Please recognize that right now, President Trump, his Administration and the Hand of God are the only things standing between the people of the United States with our liberties and constitutional form of government and a global totalitarian political, economic and religious system that they have been telling us about openly for decades. . ..   We better hope Trump succeeds and do everything in our power to help him succeed.  

One of the key milestones is making sure we have a secure 2026 Election. . .. We are playing for all the marbles.  That is a very good way to put it.  If Donald Trump is not successful, I don’t know if we are going to have another opportunity to stop this . . .. controlled demolition of America.”

There is much more in the jam-packed 43-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes One-on-One with hard-hitting journalist Alex Newman to talk about the stunning new Deep State revelations found in his new book called “Deep State 2.0” and the fight to the death coming for voter integrity coming this November for 7.25.26.

To order “Deep State 2.0” click here.

To support Alex Newman with electronic donations, click here.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/27/2026 - 12:25

BlackRock Says Crypto Can Outrun The Quantum Threat... If It Moves Fast Enough

Authored by Mathew Di Salvo via BitcoinMagazine.com,

BlackRock, the world’s biggest asset manager, has chimed in on the crypto-quantum debate - and is surprisingly optimistic.

The firm, which manages over $15 trillion in assets, said in its new report, Quantum Computing and Blockchains, that upgrading existing cryptography to quantum-resistant standards is a far easier task than actually building a functional quantum computer capable of breaking that cryptography. 

“In our view, PQ migration for cryptocurrencies is eminently addressable from a technical standpoint, and the key challenge is one of timely coordination and implementation,” the report read. 

The crypto community has sounded the alarm about hypothetical advancements in quantum computers that could in the future be able to break Bitcoin’s cryptography. Some in the space — including Bitcoin developers — have started preparing for a post-quantum future by testing quantum-resistant signatures on live sidechains. 

Quantum computers do exist but make mistakes and a machine that can break Bitcoin’s cryptography currently does not exist.

Bitcoin currently is the biggest computer network in existence. 

BlackRock has skin in the game after having debuted in 2024 spot Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds. BlackRock’s Bitcoin fund had the most successful launch in the history of the ETF industry. 

BlackRock boss Larry Fink has also talked of Bitcoin being “digital gold” and an “international asset” and has spoken about how crypto networks can help tokenize everything. 

JUST IN: Michael Saylor announces Strategy, BlackRock, Fidelity and Coinbase are pledging $15 million to support open source Bitcoin development "for the decades ahead." 🚀 pic.twitter.com/W5q60ph9n3

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) July 23, 2026 BlackRock’s views on Bitcoin 

The report said that while solutions exist for protecting Bitcoin against quantum computers — it is technically simple to upgrade — coordination is hard given the cryptocurrency’s decentralized, consensus-driven development.

BlackRock noted that about 35% of circulating Bitcoin’s supply is potentially vulnerable to certain attack types due to exposed public keys, and 11-19% may be permanently lost regardless of migration.

Along with crypto bigwigs like Coinbase, Fidelity Digital Assets, and Block, BlackRock on Thursday announced a new Bitcoin Security Consortium aimed at donating funds to engineers to help their open-source work supporting proposals like BIP-360.

The asset manager added in the report that while BIP-360 is a credible, well-designed piece of a larger puzzle, it stopped short of calling it the solution. Still, it added that Bitcoin and other crypto networks had the advantage. 

“That said, it is a much less daunting task to upgrade current cryptographic systems (including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and others) to a quantum-secure standard than it is to build a CRQC from where quantum computing progress stands today,” the report noted. 

“Thus, advantage remains decidedly with the defense, at the current juncture.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/27/2026 - 11:45

Key Events This Busy Week: FOMC, PCE, GDP, War On/War Off... And Earnings Galore

Before we look at the week ahead, a quick look at the main event that defines the market this Monday morning: after 13 consecutive nights of US strikes aimed at degrading Iran’s ability to threaten commercial shipping, Washington has refrained from further attacks since late Friday, while Tehran has publicly stated that it has also suspended retaliatory operations. The pause falls short of a formal ceasefire, but both sides are presenting it as an opportunity for diplomacy, with Omani-mediated talks continuing over the weekend focused on navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. US officials, including UN Ambassador Mike Waltz, have stressed that all military options remain on the table and that President Trump is simply giving negotiations more space. However, reports from the New York Times and Axios suggest an active debate within the administration over both the effectiveness and costs of further strikes, with some military officials reportedly arguing that key objectives have largely been achieved. For now, the market is treating the lull as a positive development, although the situation remains highly fluid.

The main market risk remains the energy and shipping front. Traffic through Hormuz remains severely disrupted, while the conflict has broadened into the Red Sea, where Iran-backed Houthi forces reportedly launched missile and drone attacks against Saudi energy infrastructure around Jizan and Yanbu over the weekend, prompting retaliatory Saudi strikes. This raises the prospect of simultaneous disruption to both Gulf and Red Sea export routes. So a welcome pause from the main actors but a fragile one, especially with side battles still ongoing.

However there is no doubt the weekend news is positive and this morning Brent crude prices are around -4.5% lower to $92.42  and 10yr USTs are down -4.5bps. S&P 500 futures are up +0.71% with Nasdaq futures gaining +1.17%.

With that in mind, let's now look ahead, and as more and more of the financial world steps off the ever-turning carousel of market news and disappears towards sunnier shores, a busy global week lies ahead, with central bank decisions, major economic releases and a heavy slate of corporate earnings all competing for investors’ attention. The Federal Reserve meeting concluding on Wednesday remains the standout event, but investors will also hear from the Bank of England (Thursday) and the Bank of Japan (Friday). Meanwhile, key economic releases include US Q2 GDP and June core PCE inflation (both Thursday), Euro Area Q2 GDP and July inflation data (Thursday/Friday), Japan’s Tokyo CPI (Friday) and China’s official PMIs (Friday). Adding to the significance of the week, four of the world’s most influential companies — Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon, which together account for 17% of the S&P 500—will report earnings, with the first two on Wednesday and the latter two a day later.

The headline event of course comes with the FOMC meeting (Wednesday), where DB economists continue to expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged. However, the decision appears unusually finely balanced. The renewed escalation in the Middle East and the sharp rise in energy prices have complicated the inflation outlook, while recent market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved higher as concerns around energy supply disruptions have intensified. Against that backdrop, policymakers face a difficult trade-off between evidence that inflation had been moderating and growing signs that higher oil prices could create a more persistent inflation shock.

It’s rare for a Fed meeting to be this finely balanced so close to the decision. Futures are still assigning a 34% probability to a rate hike this week (-4pps overnight in Asia), a level of uncertainty we seldom see at such a late stage. During the post-Covid hiking cycle, markets did receive a steer via the financial press during the blackout period if the Fed was considering a surprise move. Under the current regime, that appears far less likely.

The Fed decision will sit in the middle of several important data releases. Durable goods orders (today) and the advance goods trade balance (tomorrow) will help shape expectations for the first estimate of Q2 GDP (Thursday). Economists expect annualized GDP growth of 1.9% in Q2. Although this would mark a downgrade from earlier estimates, much of the weakness reflects a drag from net exports linked to strong AI-related imports. Beneath the surface, domestic demand remains considerably healthier. Indeed, DB's economists expect final sales to private domestic purchasers, their preferred measure of underlying demand, to rise by a robust 3.3%, which would be the strongest reading since Q3 2024.

Attention will then turn to inflation. The June personal income and spending report (Thursday) includes the latest reading of core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. DB economists expect core PCE to increase by 0.19% month-on-month, which would leave the annual rate at 3.3% assuming no significant revisions. That will be followed by the Employment Cost Index (Friday), one of the Fed's preferred measures of labor cost pressures. Economists expect the annual growth rate to remain at 3.4%, a level many policymakers would still view as broadly consistent with returning inflation towards target over time.

Alongside the macro data, earnings season moves into a critical phase. Around 35% of the S&P 500's market capitalization is scheduled to report this week. Technology will dominate attention, with Microsoft and Meta releasing results (Wednesday), followed by Apple and Amazon (Thursday). Together, those companies account for 17% of the S&P 500 and will help determine whether investor enthusiasm around AI-related spending remains intact. Elsewhere, notable US earnings releases include Visa and Mastercard in financials, ExxonMobil and Chevron in energy, and Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble in consumer staples.

In Europe, attention will be split between monetary policy and inflation. The Bank of England announces its latest policy decision (Thursday), and economists expect Bank Rate to remain unchanged at 3.75%, accompanied by a 7-2 vote split. 

On the data side, Germany and Spain release flash July CPI figures (Thursday), before France, Italy and the Euro Area publish their inflation readings (Friday). DB's European economists expect Euro Area headline HICP inflation to rise to 3.0% from 2.8%, while core HICP is forecast to edge higher to 2.52% from 2.36%. The Euro Area's preliminary Q2 GDP estimate is also due (Thursday), while Germany's Ifo survey (today) should provide an updated read on business sentiment.

In Asia, the Bank of Japan decision (Friday) will be the key event. Here, economists expect policymakers to keep their current policy settings unchanged. Japan will also release Tokyo CPI, retail sales, industrial production, labor market data and housing starts (all Friday), offering a comprehensive snapshot of the economy at the start of the third quarter. In China, the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs (Friday) will provide the latest evidence on growth momentum. Elsewhere, Australia's June CPI report (Wednesday) will be closely watched for indications about the Reserve Bank's policy path. 

Courtesy of DB, here is a day by day preview of the week ahead.

Monday July 27

• Data: US June durable goods orders, July Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, Japan June PPI services, China June industrial profits, Germany July Ifo survey, Eurozone June M3
• Earnings: LVMH, AstraZeneca, Welltower, Cadence Design Systems, Celestica
• Auctions: US 2-yr Notes ($69bn), 5-yr Notes ($70bn)

Tuesday July 28

• Data: US June advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, July Conference Board consumer confidence index, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, business conditions, Dallas Fed services activity, May FHFA house price index, France July consumer confidence, Q2 total jobseekers
• Earnings: Visa, Coca-Cola, KLA, Seagate Technology, Boeing, Rio Tinto, Safran, Unilever, Corning, Air Liquide, S&P Global, GSK, UPS, Barclays, EssilorLuxottica, Sherwin-Williams, Mondelez, American Tower, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Ecolab, Hilton, NXP Semiconductors, Teradyne, Ford, Orange, Mercedes-Benz, Kering, Centene, Sika
• Auctions: US 7-yr Notes ($44bn)

Wednesday July 29

• Data: UK June net consumer credit, M4, Germany June import price index, Italy May industrial sales, Australia June CPI, Sweden Q2 GDP indicator
• Central banks: Fed’s decision, BoC summary of deliberations 
• Earnings: Microsoft, Meta, SK hynix, Lam Research, Procter & Gamble, ARM, L'Oreal, Hermes, Amphenol, Airbus, Qualcomm, UBS, Hitachi, Advantest, Intesa Sanpaolo, Starbucks, Vertiv, Fortinet, CaixaBank, Equinix, Vinci, Eni, Aon, Standard Chartered, Public Storage, Danone, BASF, Porsche, Humana, GE HealthCare Technologies, Telecom Italia
• Auctions: US 2-yr FRN ($30bn)

Thursday July 30

• Data: US June PCE, personal income, spending, Q2 GDP, initial jobless claims, Japan July consumer confidence index, Germany Q2 GDP, July CPI, France Q2 GDP, private sector payrolls, June consumer spending, Italy Q2 GDP, June unemployment rate, PPI, Eurozone July economic, industrial, services confidence, Q2 GDP, June unemployment rate
• Central banks: BoE’s decision
• Earnings: Apple, Amazon, Samsung Electronics, Mastercard, Shell, Tokyo Electron, Schneider Electric, AB InBev, Rolls-Royce, BBVA, British American Tobacco, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Altria, Stryker, Enel, Sanofi, ING Groep, Lloyds Banking, KKR, BAE, Cigna, Monolithic Power Systems, Regeneron, CRH, Societe Generale, Ferrari, Vale, LSEG, Anglo American, adidas, Leonardo, Reddit, DSM-Firmenich, MTU Aero Engines, Capgemini, Stellantis

Friday July 31

• Data: US Q2 employment cost index, July MNI Chicago PMI, China July official PMIs, UK July Lloyds Business Barometer, Japan July Tokyo CPI, June jobless rate, job-to-applicant ratio, retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, Germany July unemployment claims rate, France July CPI, June PPI, Italy July CPI, consumer confidence index, economic sentiment, manufacturing confidence, Eurozone July CPI, Canada May GDP
• Central banks: BoJ’s decision
• Earnings: ExxonMobil, AbbVie, Chevron, Linde, Eaton, Sony, AXA, Engie, NatWest, Credit Agricole, Holcim, Siemens Healthineers, FANUC, Ares

* * *

Finally, looking at just the US, the key economic data releases this week are the advance release of Q2 GDP and core PCE inflation on Thursday. The July FOMC meeting is on Wednesday. The post-meeting statement will be released at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Chairman Warsh's press conference at 2:30 PM.

Monday, July 27 

• 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, June preliminary (GS +1.0%, consensus +1.8%, last -4.5%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, June preliminary (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.8%, last +1.4%); Core capital goods orders, June preliminary (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.8%, last +1.4%); Core capital goods shipments, June preliminary (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.1%): We estimate that durable goods orders rebounded 1% in the preliminary June report (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted) based on our tracking of commercial aircraft orders. We forecast a 0.6% increase in core capital goods orders—reflecting the increase in the new orders components in manufacturing surveys in June—and a 0.6% increase in core capital goods shipments—reflecting the continued increase in core capital goods orders in recent months.

Tuesday, July 28 

• 08:30 AM Advance goods trade balance, June (GS -$95.0bn, consensus -$100.3bn, last -$105.9bn)
• 08:30 AM Wholesale inventories, June preliminary (last +0.1%)
• 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, May (last -0.1%)
• 09:00 AM S&P Case-Shiller home price index, May (GS +0.1%, consensus flat, last flat) 
• 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, July (GS 92.0, consensus 92.4, last 91.2)

Wednesday, July 29 

• 02:00 PM FOMC statement, July 28-29 meeting: As discussed in our FOMC preview, at its July meeting, the FOMC is likely to keep the funds rate unchanged at 3.50-3.75%. The post-meeting statement might acknowledge the upside risks to inflation posed by renewed geopolitical conflict, and there will likely be at least one dissent in favor of a hike. Market pricing implies that investors see the outcome of the July meeting as unusually uncertain, likely because the FOMC has been split recently, Chairman Warsh’s own position remains unclear, and some of the re-escalation with Iran occurred during the blackout period. But most voters appear unlikely to push for a hike this week after the softer June inflation data, the Fed has historically avoided delivering surprise rate hikes, and we suspect that voters might be especially reluctant to do so at a meeting without a Summary of Economic Projections.

Thursday, July 30 

• 08:30 AM GDP, Q2 advance (GS +2.6%, consensus +2.1%, last +2.1%); Personal consumption, Q2 advance (GS +2.3%, consensus +2.3%, last +0.5%); Core PCE inflation, Q2 advance (GS +3.46%, consensus +3.5%, last +4.4%); We estimate that GDP rose 2.6% annualized in the advance reading for Q2, following a +2.1% annualized increase in Q1. Our forecast reflects a rebound in consumption growth (+2.3%, quarter-over-quarter annualized, vs. +0.5% in Q1) and another quarter of strong business fixed investment growth (+8.8% vs. +10.6% in Q1) driven by strong equipment investment growth (+17.1%). We expect net exports to contribute -1.3pp to Q2 GDP growth. We estimate that domestic final sales rose +2.6% in Q2. We estimate that the core PCE price index increased 3.46% annualized (or 3.35% year-over-year) in Q2.
• 08:30 AM Personal income, June (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.7%); Personal spending, June (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.7%); Core PCE price index, June (GS +0.18%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.3%); Core PCE price index (YoY), June (GS +3.32%, consensus +3.3%, last +3.4%); PCE price index, June (GS -0.07%, consensus -0.1%, last +0.4%); PCE price index (YoY), June (GS +3.70%, consensus +3.7%, last +4.1%): We estimate that personal income and spending increased by 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively, in June. We estimate that the core PCE price index rose 0.18% in June, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +3.32%. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index declined 0.07% in June and increased 3.70% from a year earlier.
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended July 25 (GS 205k, consensus 200k, last 187k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended July 18 (consensus 1,803k, last 1,796k)

Friday, July 31 

• 08:30 AM Employment cost index, Q2 (GS +0.8%, consensus +0.8%, last +0.9%): We estimate the employment cost index rose by 0.8% in Q2 (quarter-over-quarter, seasonally adjusted). Our forecast would result in a 0.2pp decline in the year-on-year rate to 3.2% (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted), which would mark the slowest pace of yearly wage growth since 2021Q2. Our forecast reflects slower ECI benefit growth after start-of-the-year benefit resets likely boosted growth in Q1 and a 0.8% quarterly pace of wage and salary growth—reflecting the signals from the Atlanta Fed’s wage tracker and average hourly earnings.
• 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, July final (GS 54.0, consensus 54.0, last 54.4); University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, July final (GS 3.3%, last 3.3%)

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/27/2026 - 10:35

Massive Relax

By Benjamin Picton, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

Oil futures are being offered this morning after President Trump on Friday declined to continue strikes on Iran. The ‘pause’ was extended over the weekend and reciprocated by the Iranians, marking the first ‘cease’ of the ceasefire in almost a fortnight.

According to Axios, Donald Trump’s advisors had provided the President with attack plans for the day but CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper reportedly advised against further strikes, arguing that Iran’s ability to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz had already been substantially degraded and that the aerial campaign had reached the limits of its effectiveness.

In a similar vein, the New York Times published a report over the weekend revealing that General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, had cautioned the President that further escalation was possible but that it would dangerously deplete CENTCOM’s stock of interceptor missiles. This would expose the nineteen-odd US bases across the Middle East to even greater damage than they have already sustained, to say nothing of the infrastructure of GCC allies and the strain on the US’s defence priorities in the Pacific and elsewhere. President Trump denied the reports, telling the Wall Street Journal “we have far more [interceptors] than we need.”

In a further hopeful sign, an Omani team of negotiators has reportedly met with counterparts in Tehran to discuss arrangements to re-open the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Baqaei said that the talks had been “useful” and that progress had been made, but that there was no change in the status of the strait at this point. It also remains to be seen whether any agreement reached between Iran and Oman would be accepted by the United States.

Nevertheless, President Trump’s threats of ‘massive attack’ late last week that saw Brent crude surge above $100/bbl, higher bond yields, and equities under pressure has now given way to a massive relax, with Brent below $92/bbl, equity futures pointing higher and sovereign yields lower across the board.

Though it hardly bears noting, at this point it would behove us to caution that the war is not over and that we certainly are not out of the woods from either an energy security or financial markets perspective. 

To illustrate this point, the Wall Street Journal carried a story over the weekend regarding the escalating tit-for-tat between the Saudis and the Houthis that threatens to conflagrate into all-out war. Houthi attacks on Saudi Aramco infrastructure at the critical port of Yanbu (the Red Sea release valve for Saudi oil exports) over the weekend followed a declaration last week that Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea ports would be subject to a blockade that further threatens to starve energy-poor Asia of vital crude oil flows. For now, China is continuing to play the constructive role of balancing item by holding its crude imports well below the usual levels.

Similarly, Israel was reportedly bracing for escalation over the weekend with the Jerusalem Post noting that public bomb shelters had been re-opened in major cities. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that the war would continue until the Iranian regime fell or gave up its nuclear ambitions, again highlighting the likelihood that hostilities will remain ongoing until one is forced to concede on the nuclear issue – and likely concede its regional influence in the process.

A further coalescing of an anti-Iranian bloc is also becoming more evident. Al Jazeera reports that Syrian President Al-Sharaa is seeking a security agreement with Israel that will apparently include several other countries and likely include provisions to stem to flow of weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon. This as Israeli government sources indicate that Israel has dramatically stepped-up its engagement with the GCC since the outbreak of the war, which has perhaps already yielded fruit through the UAE’s decision to leave OPEC and OPEC+. Détente between Gulf states and Israel holds out the prospect of less fragile supply chains in the future, where oil flows West rather than East and Iran loses its leverage over the global economy, but that potential future is riddled with ‘ifs’, and solves none of our near-term problems.

Elsewhere, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi accused Ukraine of doing Israel’s bidding after the former struck an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea, killing at least one crew member. Ukrainian President Zelensky defended the action by stating that Kyiv was targeting vessels involved in military cargo shipments alongside Russian warships, again raising the prospect of two conflicts merging into one.

While geopolitical considerations will doubtless continue to set the tone this week, the Fed, Bank of England and Bank of Japan will all be meeting to set their respective policy rates. None are expected to raise their rate targets this time around but the inflationary impacts of war, and considerations over how persistent those shocks may prove to be, will surely loom large in their deliberations.

This week will also bring Q2 GDP readings for the United States and the Eurozone, along with Q2 PCE for the former and July CPI for the latter.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/27/2026 - 10:20

Shootout Erupts At Seattle Festival, Killing 3; Second Gunman On The Run

Seattle police are searching for a second suspect after two gunmen allegedly exchanged fire inside the crowded Bite of Seattle festival beneath the Space Needle, killing three people and wounding four others, including a 2-year-old boy.

BREAKING: 2 killed, 5 injured in shooting at Seattle Center, Washington pic.twitter.com/MPaA3lzO7W

— Rapid Report (@RapidReport2025) July 27, 2026

Assistant Seattle Police Chief Tyrone Davis told reporters late Sunday that investigators believe the suspects were shooting at each other when bystanders were caught in the crossfire.

Three people were killed and four others injured in a shooting at a Seattle food festival.

One suspect has been arrested, and authorities say the incident may have involved a shootout. Two firearms were recovered at the scene.

All 4 victims are in a stable condition.

Police… pic.twitter.com/V6ynVSdmNE

— I Meme Therefore I Am 🇺🇸 (@ImMeme0) July 27, 2026

One suspect surrendered at the scene, while the second remains at large.

"We're still trying to figure this out," Davis said.

Suspect Number One:

BREAKING - SEATTLE SHOOTING 🚨🚨🚨

Two people are dead, 5 others were injured after shooting at a Seattle festival.

Alleged shooter in image below. https://t.co/IkEDa0ehh1 pic.twitter.com/DUs05mBGxV

— TERFs ‘r’ us ©️ (@Terfs_R) July 27, 2026

Davis described the suspect in custody as "a young person" who was being questioned by investigators. He said that individual was the only gunman officers witnessed opening fire. He noted that police did not discharge their weapons during the confrontation.

A Seattle Times reporter at the festival described hearing several loud pops followed by what sounded like rapid gunfire.

"It was just pure chaos," one festival attendee said.

Authorities have not indicated that the shooting is being investigated as terrorism, despite the heightened security following the Islamist attack at Berlin's Pride festival over the weekend. The State Department has also outlined a far-left threat across the West.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/27/2026 - 10:15

Deutsche Bank Says Starship Flight 13 Made "Solid Progress" Despite Booster Setback

Following last month's record-setting IPO, SpaceX shares have plunged 50% from their peak and now trade about 15% below the $135 offering price. The post-IPO euphoria has faded, stripping Elon Musk of his trillionaire status - at least for now.

On Friday evening, SpaceX launched Starship on its 13th test flight and successfully deployed 20 next-generation Starlink V3 satellites, making solid progress toward full reusability. The upper-stage spacecraft completed all its primary objectives, despite another landing-burn failure involving the Super Heavy booster.

Deployment of 20 @Starlink V3 satellites complete. Today's test will provide critical data as we prepare to expand our Starlink constellation pic.twitter.com/jWKLwXGlsk

— SpaceX (@SpaceX) July 24, 2026

Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu offered clients a post-mortem on Flight 13, noting that the latest Starship test.

Here is Yu's take:  

Starship Test Flight 13 illustrated solid progress for the program, in our view. For context, this was the second time the upgraded V3 iteration of Starship was flown. Interestingly, the rocket's second stage (Ship) executed all primary objectives whereas the first-stage booster (Super Heavy) performed well for most of the mission until an incomplete engine relight led to a harder splashdown than planned which was also an issue observed on Flight 12. As such, it does appear SpaceX may attempt a catch recovery of the second stage on the next test flight; if successful, this would represent a key milestone given the very high technical difficulty. Additionally, Flight 13 saw the successful deployment of 20 functional Starlink next-gen V3 satellites. Overall, while the initial abort was optically not ideal, we think Starship continues to progress in line with our base-case expectations

What caused the initial abort?

During the first launch attempt on July 16th , Starship reached T-0 and began the engine start sequence. However, 4 of Super Heavy's 33 Raptor engines failed to ignite. Therefore, the flight computer automatically aborted because the launch commit criteria permits a maximum of 2 engines out at liftoff. The company identified the cause to be off-nominal spin response in the liquid oxygen (LOX) turbopumps of 6 engines (4 failed to light plus 2 that displayed off-nominal behavior). The most likely cause of this dynamic was residual moisture that had collected inside the turbopumps from earlier operations. When the extremely cold cryogenic propellant was loaded, that moisture appeared to have frozen. As a result, the ice either slowed the turbopumps dramatically or stopped them from spinning up properly, so those engines never reached the required conditions to ignite. To address this, SpaceX removed and replaced 6 Raptor engines, performed verification testing including spin checks after chill. Then the attempt on July 23rd was postponed due to weather conditions in order to preserve visual coverage of the heat shield tiles during ascent. For background, the heat shield is still being iterated upon and considered one of the higher risk + less mature parts of Starship; therefore, gathering optical data is

What went well?

• Ascent & staging: All 33 booster engines and all 6 Ship engines performed well through their powered phases. Hot-staging was clean - rocket separation where the upper stage ignites its engines while still attached to the lower stage booster, which is also still firing.
• Boostback: First successful completion of the high-thrust portion of the boostback burn with all 33 engines running on V3 boosters. This is the maneuver that reverses first-stage booster's horizontal forward momentum and steers it back toward the ocean.
• Starlink V3 deployment: First flight of functional (not simulator) next-gen V3 satellites. All 20 sats deployed, extended solar arrays and antennas, established RF and laser links, and returned telemetry before burning up on reentry after ~20 minutes.
• In-Space Raptor relight: Successful single-engine restart in space; the longest demonstrated to date. Important capability for future orbital missions and controlled de-orbit.
• Ship reentry & landing: Soft, controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean. Ship 40 remained intact, continued transmitting telemetry and imagery, and provided the first high-quality views of an intact heat shield after a full reentry under higher dynamic pressure; should be ideal for heat-shield data collection.

What needs to improve?

• Booster landing burn: Only a subset of the Super Heavy engines (seemingly 8 out of 13) successfully relit for the landing burn. Hence, there was a hard splashdown rather than a soft, controlled impact. This remains the primary technical open item on the first-stage booster.

Next up: Flight 14

Following Flight 13, Elon Musk posted on X: "Unless we discover problems after mission data review, SpaceX will attempt to catch the ship with the tower on next flight." This would be the first attempt to catch the upper stage using the Mechazilla tower arms and if successful, would represent a major milestone for the program given the much higher technical difficulty level compared with catching the first stage (energy, speed, flip maneuver, margin of error, etc...). We estimate a target window in late August or September. Separately, we note that Starlink V3 satellites can be deployed on Starship even with partial reusability.t a catch recovery of the second stage on the next test flight;

SPCX shares dipped 1.5% in Monday premarket trading, falling to the $113 handle as the stock searches for a floor following its dismal post-IPO performance.

Looking ahead, SpaceX faces its first major post-IPO lockup expiration on Aug. 6, just two days after its scheduled quarterly earnings report. About 911.5 million shares will become eligible for sale, creating a potentially significant supply overhang.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/27/2026 - 10:00

Appeals Court Blocks Trump Mail-In Voting Order In 23 Democrat-Led States, Setting Up SCOTUS Fight

Via American Greatness,

A federal appeals court sided with 23 Democrat-led states and blocked the Trump administration from enforcing key pieces of the president’s election integrity order, setting up a likely showdown at the Supreme Court just months before the midterms.

The 1st U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled 2-1 to deny the Justice Department’s request to pause a lower court injunction while the administration’s appeal moves forward, leaving in place a ruling that stripped federal agencies of the power to enforce several provisions of President Donald Trump’s order in those states through the Nov. 3 elections.

The Justice Department has signaled it may now turn to the Supreme Court for emergency relief, a path the administration flagged earlier in the litigation should it fail to prevail at the appellate level.

Trump signed Executive Order 14399 in March, directing the Department of Homeland Security to compile lists of confirmed citizens eligible to vote and hand them to states, ordering the U.S. Postal Service to set new handling standards for mail-in ballots, and instructing the Justice Department to prioritize investigations of state and local officials who send federal ballots to people who should not receive them.

The measures represent one of the most significant pushes yet from the administration to shore up confidence in an election system Republicans have long argued is vulnerable to fraud and error, particularly through loosely regulated mail voting.

The administration argued the lawsuit was filed too soon, since federal agencies had not yet finalized the rules needed to carry out the order. The panel’s majority rejected that argument, finding the states already faced fast-approaching deadlines tied to the order and had no choice but to begin preparing for compliance.

“As the district court reasoned, the (executive order) lays out a clear set of rapidly approaching deadlines by which states must coordinate with federal officials and comply with new voting procedures,” the majority wrote.

“The Plaintiff States have no practical choice but to respond to the (order) now.”

The lawsuit, led by California, Massachusetts, Nevada and Washington, was joined by 19 other states and the District of Columbia, all governed by Democrats who have resisted the administration’s election security efforts from the start.

The states claim the Constitution gives them, not the president, primary authority over administering federal elections, an argument U.S. District Judge Indira Talwani accepted in June when she ruled several provisions likely exceeded Trump’s authority.

Saturday’s decision does not settle the underlying dispute over presidential power but keeps Talwani’s injunction intact while the case winds through the courts, a delay that could push final resolution dangerously close to the midterms.

Critics of the ruling argue that leaving basic safeguards, like verifying citizenship and tightening mail-ballot standards, in legal limbo only benefits officials in blue states with a history of loose election administration.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/27/2026 - 09:40

Trump Accounts Are Now Open: What Parents And Grandparents Need To Know Before Contributing

Authored by Adam H. Douglas via The Epoch Times,

As of July 4, 2026, money can officially flow into Trump accounts, the new child savings vehicle created by last year's tax law.

rblfmr/shutterstock

Millions of families have already signed up, and millions more are asking the same practical questions: does my child qualify, how do I claim the $1,000, and is this better than the 529 plan we already have?

Most coverage explanations answer these questions in tax-professional language. Here are the essentials in plain terms, including one state-level catch that could surprise you at tax time.

Quick Answer: Who Qualifies for a Trump Account?

Any child who is a U.S. citizen with a valid Social Security number can have a Trump account, as long as it is opened before the year they turn 18. The one-time $1,000 federal seed contribution is narrower: it goes only to eligible children born between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2028. Parents or guardians claim it by submitting IRS Form 4547, which can be filed through the Trump Accounts app, at trumpaccounts.gov, through an IRS Individual Online Account, or when filing taxes. Once the Treasury confirms the account is active, it deposits the $1,000.

What Your Child Gets, by Birth Year

The seed money depends entirely on when your child was born.

Dozens of companies, including several major banks and technology firms, have pledged to match the federal $1,000 for employees' children. If you or your child's other parent works for a large employer, it is worth asking human resources before assuming the seed money is all your child will receive.

The Contribution Rules in Plain Terms

Once the account exists, here is how money goes in:

• The combined cap is $5,000 per year. Parents, grandparents, and anyone else contribute after-tax dollars, and all of it counts toward one shared limit per child. The cap adjusts for inflation after 2027.
• Employers get special treatment. An employer can put in up to $2,500 per year for a worker's child. That amount counts toward the $5,000 cap but is excluded from the employee's taxable income.
• Some money does not count against the cap. Contributions from qualifying charities, states, tribes, and local governments sit outside the $5,000 limit, as does the federal seed itself.
• Contributions stop the year before the year your child turns 18.

For grandparents, the practical takeaway is coordination. Because the cap is shared, a grandparent writing a $5,000 check uses up the entire year's room for everyone.

How the Account Actually Works

A Trump account is best understood as a special kind of IRA with training wheels. The money is invested in a low-cost index fund tracking the S&P 500, so the balance rises and falls with the stock market.

Earnings grow tax-deferred at the federal level, and the funds are locked until the child turns 18, with only limited exceptions. On January 1 of the year the child turns 18, the account essentially converts to a traditional IRA in the child's name.

That last detail matters: Withdrawals in adulthood are generally taxed as ordinary income, the same as any traditional IRA.

The State Tax Catch Almost Nobody Explains

Here is the wrinkle buried in most coverage explanations.

Federal tax deferral does not automatically mean state tax deferral. State tax codes must conform to the new federal rules, but some states have not done so.

California is the most prominent example: Unless state law changes, annual earnings inside a Trump account could be taxable on your California return each year, even while federal taxes wait until withdrawal.

That does not make the account worthless in a nonconforming state. The $1,000 seed is still free money, and federal deferral still helps. But it changes the math on large voluntary contributions and creates a recordkeeping chore.

Before contributing beyond the seed, check your state's current treatment with your state tax authority or a tax professional, because conformity decisions are still moving in several states.

Trump Account vs. 529: The Short Version

If you already fund a 529 plan, the two are not interchangeable.

• A 529 offers tax-free withdrawals for qualified education expenses, and many states add a deduction for contributions - a Trump account offers neither.
• A Trump account has no education restriction - at 18 it becomes retirement-oriented IRA money, giving your child a decades-long compounding head start.
• The sensible sequence for most families: claim the free seed money if your child qualifies, keep education savings in the 529, and treat additional Trump account contributions as a separate, long-horizon decision.

FAQs About Trump Account Eligibility Is the $1,000 Seed Contribution Automatic?

No. Eligible children born between 2025 and 2028 do not receive the money by default. A parent or guardian must first open the account and elect the contribution by submitting IRS Form 4547, whether through the Trump Accounts app, trumpaccounts.gov, an IRS Individual Online Account, or a tax return. After the Treasury confirms with the account trustee that the account is active, it deposits the $1,000. No account, no seed money.

Can Grandparents Contribute to a Trump Account?

Yes. Grandparents, other relatives, and even friends can contribute, but everything counts toward the single $5,000 combined annual cap per child, alongside contributions from parents and employers. Contributions are made with after-tax dollars and are not deductible. Families should coordinate before year-end so a well-meaning gift does not crowd out an employer match, which carries the added benefit of being excluded from the employee's taxable income.

What if My Child Was Born Before 2025?

Your child can still have a Trump account, opened any time before the year they turn 18, and family or employer money can go in under the normal rules. They simply will not receive the federal $1,000. Children born from 2016 through 2024 may qualify for a $250 Dell Foundation deposit if they live in a ZIP code where the median income is $150,000 or less, which covers most of the country.

Will My State Tax the Earnings Each Year?

Possibly, depending on where you live. The accounts are tax-deferred under federal law, and states must conform to that treatment, but some, including California, may tax annual earnings at the state level unless their laws change. In a nonconforming state you could owe state tax on gains yearly while federal tax waits. Check your state's current position before making large contributions, since several legislatures are still deciding.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/27/2026 - 09:00

Futures Jump As Brent Tumbles Below $90 On Fresh Round Of Iran Ceasefire Optimism

A sharp drop in oil prices prompted by a quieter weekend for geopolitics and a pause in MidEast hostilities also sparked a drop in bond yields and the USD. A powerful relief rally in stocks and bonds emerged after a lull in hostilities in the Middle East, and started a week packed with earnings and a stack of interest-rate decisions on a positive note. As of 8.00am ET, Nasdaq futures surged after the index logged its first back-to-back weekly declines since March; S&P 500 futures rose 1%. After Friday's rout, all Mag 7 stocks gained amid the relief rally in tech and AI-related stocks (Meta Platforms +1.8%, Alphabet +1.7%, Amazon +1.4%, Tesla +1.3%, Microsoft +1%, Nvidia +0.9%, Apple +0.1%). While Asian markets closed mixed, European stocks advanced as broader risk sentiment gets a boost from a pullback in energy prices. Brent crude futures for September fell 9% to around $88 a barrel (these hit $100 late last week) after a lull in hostilities in the Middle East over the weekend. Bond yields fell around the world, with the rate on 10-year Treasuries declining four basis points to 4.64%. The easing came after the US paused a nearly two-week run of strikes against Iran for a third straight night, sending Brent 8.2% lower to $89 a barrel. The dollar fell 0.2%, while gold hit $4,100 an ounce. UK and German 10-year borrowing costs dropped 4-5 bps each. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%; the Swedish krona and Swiss franc are the best performing G-10 currencies, rising 0.4% each. Precious metals advance, with spot silver up around 2%. Today's eco calendar has US Durable goods and the Dallas Fed Mfg Activity (est. 2.0). A slew of earnings, including fresh clues on the pace of AI infrastructure investment, will keep traders on their toes in coming days. On top of that, there’s a Fed interest-rate decision and a reading of its preferred, core PCE inflation index this week. 

In premarket trading, Magnificent 7 stocks all gained, boosting US stock futures, as a sharp drop in crude prices spurred a relief rally in tech and AI-related stocks (Meta Platforms +1.6%, Alphabet +1.2%, Amazon +1.2%, Tesla +0.8%, Microsoft +1.4%, Nvidia +0.6%, Apple +0.2%)

• Chipmakers and other AI infrastructure stocks are rallying as traders return to risk, heartened by a pause in US strikes against Iran that’s causing oil prices to slide.
• D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) climbs 8% after AT&T signed an agreement to expand its use of the company’s quantum computing technology.
• Ford Motor (F) gains 2% as Jefferies upgrades to buy ahead of second quarter earnings report, saying with US market conditions healthy, management could raise guidance.
• Forte Biosciences (FBRX) rises 39% after Argenx SE agreed to buy the company for about $2.2 billion in cash to expand its portfolio of immunology medicines.
• General Motors (GM) rises 1.9% as Jefferies upgrades the stock to buy on confidence that 2027 will further strengthen the automaker’s position “within the US profit oligopoly.”
• Gossamer Bio (GOSS) climbs 30% on plans to submit a new drug application for seralutinib in pulmonary arterial hypertension in September 2026.
• MapLight Therapeutics (MPLT) sinks 54% following Phase 2 trial results for a drug aimed at treating adults with acute schizophrenia.

Elsewhere in AI, Nvidia is in talks to back OpenAI’s lease of a $500 billion data center, highlighting the circular financing supporting the AI boom. Samsung won a contract worth more than $200 billion to make chips for Broadcom. And memory is back in focus, after CXMT’s blockbuster trading debut in Shanghai and a WSJ report of Micron warning the US against letting Apple buy China chips. In deals news, Jack Daniel’s owner Brown-Forman said its board of directors rejected an unsolicited takeover offer from Sazerac, which asked the company to reconsider the $15 billion bid that was rebuffed earlier this year. Meanwhile, Argenx agreed to buy Forte Biosciences for about $2.2 billion in cash to expand its portfolio of immunology medicines.

Traders are finding some respite from weaker oil prices after Brent surged by more than a third this month, stoking concerns that central banks will need to tighten monetary policy to contain inflation. Questions over whether Big Tech firms’ spending spree on artificial intelligence is sustainable have also fueled a prolonged stretch of volatility.

Monday’s rally is doing little to ease caution ahead of the busiest week of the earnings season, when a raft of megacaps including Amazon.com Inc., Meta Platforms Inc. and Microsoft Corp. will put AI spending back in the spotlight. Another major event is the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Wednesday, with markets still pricing around a one-in-three chance of an interest rate hike.

“I expect a volatile week with the Fed, tech results, and a bunch of European inflation data coming out,” said Andrea Gabellone at KBC Securities. “Moreover, the Iran situation is still very fragile. For now, the President said that ‘all options are still open,’ so it will be difficult to put risk back on the table.”

US equity investors are likely to rotate into high-quality stocks as the focus returns to free cash flow generation and margin expansion, according to Morgan Stanley strategists. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank’s Parag Thatte notes positioning has fallen sharply in large-cap tech from extended levels to near neutral, with rotation out of the sector about three-quarters of the way through.  

A busy week of data releases includes June durable goods today, consumer confidence Tuesday and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge of core PCE for June on Thursday. Sandwiched in between is the FOMC rate decision, when a hawkish hold is expected. Dissent may come from some officials - possibly Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Cleveland’s Beth Hammack - who favor a rate increase now. There’s also been widespread discussion over whether new Chairman Kevin Warsh might surprise investors with a hike. No major US earnings are due ahead of the bell on Monday, but that’s the calm before the storm. More than 170 companies in the S&P 500 are set to report this week. The narrative around AI capex is in sharp focus, with last week’s selloff in Alphabet signaling a market in revolt about spending on the tech. It creates a tough setup for earnings from Microsoft and Meta Platforms due on Wednesday and those from Apple and Amazon on Thursday.

Big tech’s appetite for AI investment is also driving a wave of bond sales, having a greater impact on the US corporate debt market than might be obvious. SoftBank’s $40 billion bridge loan for its investment in OpenAI has attracted a new group of 21 lenders in a broader syndication phase.

In the latest market structure lunacy, CME Group will launch single-stock futures today, allowing investors to hedge or speculate on more than 50 of the largest US companies. The contracts, offering leverage without the complexity of options, will be cash-settled on the closing price of the stocks they’re tied to.

The political uncertainty surrounding November’s US midterm election adds to a near-term argument for owning index volatility, according to Goldman strategists. Record low correlations across stocks continue to suppress index volatility, a trend highlighted over the weekend. 

Turning to earnings, of the 135 S&P 500 companies to have reported to date, 86% have beaten analysts’ EPS forecasts, while 10% have missed. On sales, 69% of companies have positively surprised, while 15% have missed.  Bank of Hawaii and Northwest Bancshares are among those due to report before the market opens. Earnings from Welltower and Cadence Design come later in the day.

European stocks also rose as tensions ease in the Middle East, broadly shrugging off comments from a European Central Bank rate-setter, who said the institution will have to raise interest rates at least one more time to curtail inflation risks. Energy is the worst performing sector as oil prices slid while tech and retail outperformed. Stoxx 600 rises 0.8% to 649.47. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday: 

• AstraZeneca shares rise as much as 2% after the drugmaker reported better-than-expected core earnings per share for the second quarter.
• Evolution shares rise as much as 4.4% in Stockholm, the most in a week, after Candle Lake crossed the threshold for a mandatory offer for the Swedish gaming company.
• Vodafone shares are up as much as 4.3% after the telecom operator reported growth in organic service revenue in Germany, a positive surprise to analysts that have forecast almost no growth in the company’s biggest market.
• SES, Eutelsat rally on Monday after both companies said they are expecting to receive payments from the release of C-band spectrum in the US.
• Interroll jumped as much as 7.5% after Oddo Bhf raised its rating, arguing that a drop in the shares of the Swiss maker of automation equipment and storage solutions had made them “too cheap to be ignored.”
• Pharos Energy shares soar as much as 31% after the firm agreed to a takeover by fellow London-listed Serica Energy, with shares almost reaching the total offer price.
• Kinepolis shares rise as much as 6.2% after Degroof Petercam set a Street-high price target for the Belgian cinema chain and reiterated its buy rating ahead of 1H results due on Aug. 20.
• Irish Continental Group surged as much as 30% after agreeing to a management buyout, with the stock hitting a new all-time high and briefly surpassing the offer price.
• Inditex shares climb 3.3% after Barclays raises its recommendation on the Zara parent to overweight from equal-weight, saying recent muted shareholder return performance presents an opportunity with the Spanish retailer’s valuation at reasonable levels.
• Zabka shares fell as much as 14%, the most on record, after Seven & i abandoned plans to buy an equity stake in the Polish convenience-store operator.
• Havas shares fall as much as 3.8% after JPMorgan analysts say the stock had outrun its growth potential and reduce their rating to neutral from overweight.
• Cranswick shares erase early gains to fall as much as 2.2% after the British meat producer reported a slowing in its like-for-like revenue growth rate.
• IP Group shares fall as much as 3.3% after Railpen said it does not intend to make an offer for the science investor in a statement.
• Vesuvius shares plunge as much as 12% as analysts warned of potential cuts to consensus estimates after the materials technology company adjusted its guidance lower due to ongoing operational issues.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks gained after Friday’s selloff, boosted by a slump in global oil prices and gains in Chinese internet companies as investors brace for an event-heavy week. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1%, with SK Hynix, Samsung and Tencent the biggest contributors. Chinese equities gained, with sentiment getting a lift as memory chipmaker CXMT debuted with a 466% jump. Stocks also rose in Australia and India, helped by a more than 7% drop in oil prices. 

Traders are closely watching as an event-packed week gets underway. The US Federal Reserve is set to review monetary policy, while mega-cap technology giants like Meta and Microsoft are scheduled to report earnings. Investors will be paying particular attention to hyperscalers’ spending plans for signs of continued AI investment. Indonesian stocks fell as much as 0.8% before paring losses after the country’s central bank head Perry Warjiyo resigned citing personal reasons.

“For Asia more broadly, a falling oil price is very beneficial,” said Leonid Mironov, portfolio manager at Gavekal Capital Ltd. “There are outstanding issues with the yen weakness, but the core drivers of performance this year — chip and AI names — are more levered to global AI capex rather than domestic issues.”

Looking at today's calendar, the provisional June reading of durable goods due at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by Dallas Fed manufacturing activity for July at 10:30 a.m. The Fed’s external communications blackout continues. 

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• Iran will halt its own attacks as long as the United States does the same, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Sunday. The development comes as the United States pressed ‌pause on its bombing campaign after President Donald Trump's advisers told him they were running out of targets and expressed worries about depleting the U.S. arsenal. RTRS
• A US appeals court refused the DOJ’s request to let federal officials move ahead with Trump’s mail-voting overhaul ahead of the November midterm elections. BBG
• DeepSeek is said to have told prospective investors it’s pausing a fundraising round, after comments widely attributed to its founder about US-China AI competition went viral. BBG
• CXMT jumped 466% in its Shanghai debut after the chipmaker raised $9.8 billion in its IPO, turning it into China’s largest onshore-listed company. BBG
• The ECB will have to raise interest rates at least one more time to ensure that inflation risks don’t spin out of control, Governing Council member Peter Kazimir said. BBG
• The Agriculture Department is lifting a more than yearlong ban on Mexican cattle imports, a move that could ease soaring beef prices. The U.S. plans to resume importing Mexican cattle at the port of entry in Douglas, Ariz., in 30 days and eventually open two additional ports of entry in New Mexico.
• Big Companies Are Starting to Hire Again, Defying Predictions of AI Wipeout. After a year of holding back on new hires, companies from tech and transportation to defense now say they need more people to work alongside AI. WSJ
• Employers fear labor shortage as many immigrants lose protected status. A recent Supreme Court ruling cleared the way for the Trump administration to end a humanitarian program that has allowed about 1 million immigrants to work illegally in the US. NYT
• Nvidia is in talks to provide a guarantee of as much as $250 billion to help OpenAI lease computing from a data center project in Ohio, people familiar said. BBG
• Mirroring the pre-election patterns in uncertainty, volatility, and investor flows, US equities have typically traded sideways in the few months ahead of midterms. US equity returns are generally modest during this part of the calendar year but have been weaker on average in midterm election years. During midterm election years of the past few decades, the S&P 500 has generated a median return of 0% from the start of August through Election Day. Returns have typically improved as uncertainty subsided post-election, with the S&P 500 returning a median of 6% in the subsequent 3 months. Goldman Research
• Sources say Bipartisan Senate talks over funding federal agencies past the 30th September deadline are trending in the right direction: Punchbowl
• A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly positive, with risk sentiment underpinned as oil prices and yields declined following a halt in US-Iran strikes over the weekend, although some of the gains are capped, with price action somewhat choppy during the session as participants also await several major central bank meetings and key earnings later in the week. ASX 200 was led higher by strength in tech, materials and miners, while energy and defensives lag.
Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses with price action choppy amid recent currency moves, intervention risks, lower yields, and softer-than-expected Services PPI data, while participants also await the BoJ later in the week. KOSPI saw two-way trade and ultimately declined despite reports of NVIDIA deals with South Korean firms including SK Group and Naver, with the sector cautious ahead of key tech earnings. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were positive as Hong Kong was led higher by tech stocks including CXMT stakeholders such as Xiaomi and Meituan, with energy at the other end of the spectrum following the drop in oil prices, while the attention in the mainland was on CXMT, which soared over 500% on its debut in Shanghai's STAR Market, making it mainland China's most valuable company by market cap.

Top Asian News

• Chinese President Xi holds phone talks with Brazilian President Lula, while Xi called for China and Brazil to play a greater role in improving the global governance and upholding international fairness and justice. said:. China is ready to further strengthen bilateral multilateral strategic coordination with Brazil. China and Brazil should jointly promote high-quality development of the Greater BRICS Corporation. Supports Brazil in rejecting external interference.
• Seven new suspected H5 bird flu cases were identified in South Australia.
• Japanese PM Takaichi said the government is ready to take further timely action as needed to cushion economic blow from the Middle East conflict, adds FX rates move on various factors and it's hard to identify impacts of any specific factor. said:. Raising Japan's growth potential and its competitive advantage will boost market trust in the yen. Monetary policy adjustment and specific monetary policy means are up to the BoJ to decide.
• Japanese PM Takaichi will address measures including a consumption tax reduction in her press conference later today.
• Japanese PM Takaichi said cutting debt-to-GDP ratio is key to fiscal management.
• Japanese PM Takaichi does not comment about the possibility of a cabinet reshuffle.
• Japanese panel said to be looking at revising up minimum wage target; looking at hiking to "high JPY 1100 range", Kyodo reported.
• Japan PM Takaichi noted Japanese inflation is amongst the lowest in the G7, adds that there are encouraging signs emerging for the wage outlook.

European Bourses - Begin the week firmer (STOXX 600 +0.8%) as oil prices and yields fall after the US halts strikes on Iran. The DAX outperforms as SAP continues to climb, while Spain’s IBEX is supported by strength in Retail and Travel. The FTSE 100 and OMX Copenhagen lag as Shipping and Oil majors come under pressure. Sectors - Trade broadly higher, with the exception of Energy and Utilities. Moves are driven by geopolitical de-escalation, with Retail and Travel & Leisure leading, while Tech also outperforms following CXMT’s surge on its Shanghai debut.

Top European News

• European Commission is considering watering down a large business levy which was designed to raise funding relating to the next 7yr budget, Politico reported citing sources. Officials said to be considering exempting loss-making companies and raising the revenue threshold to exclude smaller businesses for the "Corporate Resource for Europe" charge.
• UK PM Burnham hinted he will make it more difficult to claim benefits to bring down the welfare bill, according to Huffington Post. It was separately reported that Burnham said UK must get really serious about cutting welfare.
• France questioned UK involvement in EU’s EUR 5bln tech start-up fund, according to FT.
• Italy cabinet to meet at 16:30EDT/17:30CET to discuss diesel costs.

FX

• DXY - Softer (-0.2%) as oil and yields moderate following the US halt to strikes on Iran. The index trades within a tight 101.11–101.32 range, with the geopolitical pause and easing tightening bets weighing on the Buck, though the outlook remains fluid ahead of the Fed this week.
• JPY - Firmer amid the softer USD backdrop and lower yields though moves remain contained in a 163.32-163.71.
• EUR- EUR is stronger against the USD, with EUR/USD briefly moving above 1.14 to a 1.1418 peak before paring gains. Newsflow light, with Ifo broadly in line and focus turning to upcoming growth and inflation data later in the week.
• GBP - GBP is modestly firmer vs USD but underperforms EUR, with EUR/GBP higher. Price action is likely driven by the unwinding of recent Sterling outperformance, while attention turns to the BoE meeting where a pause is expected, with the vote split in focus.
• Antipodeans - Antipodeans outperform as risk sentiment improves, supported by the pullback in oil and yields alongside the broader USD softness.
• RBI likely sold USD via state run banks to lift INR past 96, according to traders.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7911 vs exp. 6.7703 (prev. 6.7939).

Fixed Income

• UST - Firmer, benefiting from the pullback in energy prices following the pause in US strikes on Iran. The contract reaches a 108-22 peak, up around 10 ticks on the day, though remains shy of recent 109-00 and 109-08+ highs. Focus turns to upcoming 2yr and 5yr supply, while broader attention also builds around US midterm developments.
• Bund - Bunds move in tandem, lifting to a 124.95 peak but failing to test the 125.00 handle or last week’s 125.10 high. There was little reaction to the Ifo release, which is broadly constructive despite softer current conditions, nor to ECB’s Kazimir, who reiterated a hawkish stance with a high bar to avoid a September hike.
• Gilt - Gilts gap higher and extend gains by over 50 ticks, approaching but not reaching last week’s 87.37 peak. The move is driven by the broader fixed income bid on lower yields, with some additional support from reporting around PM Burnham's approach to the welfare bill.
• Australia sold AUD 300mln 3.00% March 2047 bonds b/c 3.22, avg yield 5.4319%.

Commodities

• Crude futures - Crude was sharply lower following the US pause in strikes on Iran, though losses were trimmed into the European morning. Brent Oct’26 fell over 7% at worst to USD 84.91/bbl (vs high USD 88.95/bbl), while WTI Sep’26 dropped to a USD 82.46/bbl trough (vs peak USD 86.20/bbl). Dutch TTF also slumped, dipping below EUR 58/MWh before recovering towards EUR 59.50/MWh.
• Precious metals - Precious metals were firmer intraday but off best levels as energy pared losses. Spot gold traded towards the lower end of a USD 4,083.80–4,116.19/oz range (vs Friday’s USD 4,052/oz close). Spot silver similarly sat towards the bottom of a USD 59.08–60.09/oz range (vs Friday’s USD 58.20/oz low).
• Base metals - Base metals posted modest gains but also came off highs as energy recovered. 3M LME copper traded within a narrow USD 13,615.00–13,730.43/t range.
• CPC’s Black Sea terminal expected to resume oil loadings today following a one week suspension after drone attacks, sources say.
• Iraqi militias and political parties have received official approvals to establish oil facilities; Iraq has allocated about 1.5mln BPD for domestic consumption, including 300K BPD for the Ministry of Electricity. The reported note that more than a third of Iraq’s oil production revenues since 2011 have gone to militias and political parties.
• A magnitude 5.5 earthquake struck the Antofagasta region of Chile, according to EMSC.

Central Banks

• ECB’s Kazimir said second round effects are costly to reverse, ECB must act before they are visible; at least one more hike needed as part of measured adjustment to inflation risks. A rate hike will be warranted even if the inflation situation improves somewhat. Should the situation escalate, with the price pressures becoming stronger and more persistent, we will need to tighten more over the next quarters than is currently expected. Incoming data and geopolitical developments would need to be very convincing to do for me not to advocate another hike in September; We didn’t surprise the markets now, we shouldn’t surprise them in September.
• Swiss Total Sight Deposits (w/e Jul 18) 469.27bln (prev. 469.4bln W/W), Domestic 442.66bln (prev. 443bln W/W).
• Indonesia Central Bank Governor Perry Warjiyo steps down due to personal reasons, while Deputy Governor Destry Damayanti will act as interim Governor. Damayanti said Bank Indonesia will continue to prioritise professional governance and will work with the government to run the economy, also said they will do their mandate as normal and in accordance with best practices.
• Monetary Authority Singapore slightly raises the rate of appreciation of the SGD NEER policy band, while it makes no change to the width and level it is centred. said:. Inflation could pick up more strongly than anticipated if energy price spikes anew. MAS core inflation is projected to step up from July and remain elevated, but should moderate discernibly from around mid-2027. Expectation is that overall GDP will be sustained at high levels in the near term. Singapore's economy is forecast to record a firm pace of growth for 2026 as a whole. Singapore's imported costs are likely to rise in the quarters ahead.

Trade/Tariffs

• China Foreign Ministry said China's countermeasures on EU do not target any one country.

Geopolitics: Russia-Ukraine

• US President Trump will meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky at the White House on Tuesday, according to Axios.
• Ukraine air force noted ballistic missile threat from the east and UAV detected in Dnipropetrovsk region.
• Multiple apartments and 15 vehicles are on fire in Russia's Belgorod after a UAV attack, according to TASS.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said some countries in the region are continuing to be involved in the conflict, they need to stop. The conversation between Iran and Oman regarding Hormuz have been positive.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, in an interview on Sunday, said Iran has no fear of negotiations, but it will not accept negotiations whose goal is to dictate or impose demands.
• Yemen Navy official said that a Navy patrol boat was attacked and destroyed on Sunday in the Red Sea, which left three crew members missing and the official blamed Houthi militants firing from several small boats.
• Fewer than 10 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz daily over the weekend, according to shipping data. It was separately reported that shipping traffic through Bab el-Mandeb fell on Sunday after Yemeni Houthis attacked Saudi oil installations along the ‌Red Sea coast.
• US Central Command Commander Cooper stressed that the two weeks of strikes in the Strait of Hormuz area had significantly degraded Iran's ability to attack ships, according to Axios's Ravid.
• Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson said diplomacy remains open, but our priority is defending the nation.
• Yemen's Houthis said on Sunday that it attacked three Saudi oil tankers in the past 48 hours and is enforcing maritime blockade measures against vessels linked to Saudi Arabia.
• Houthi-Affiliated Al Masirah TV said Saudi strikes attack Yemen’s Kamaran Island.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry Araghchi met with his Chinese counterpart, Mehr News reported; the sides discussed the Middle East situation.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said they have not accepted a 10 day ceasefire.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said they have not requested the resumption of talks with the US, intermediaries are conveying messages to the US. Kuwait has effectively made its territory available to the US.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said the situation around Hormuz has not changed, it remains shut.
• IDF intercepted two drones over the border with Jordan, TimesofIsrael's Fabian reported.
• Iranian army reiterates that it will response more severely to "any possible incursions by the enemies", Tasnim reported.
• Saudi Foreign Ministry said Saudi Arabia discussed with Oman the issue of ensuring the freedom and safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, Al Hadath reported.
• Iranian TV said a ship was involved in an accident, and five ships that attempted to pass through the Strait of Hormuz via the unsafe passage this morning were turned back.
• Explosion reported in Erbil, Northern Iraq, according to Press TV.
• Israeli forces raid areas in West Bank and Jerusalem, according to IRNA.
• Sources told Asharq that Trump and Aoun are discussing a security agreement between Washington and Beirut.
• UK PM Burnham and Saudi Crown Prince MBS discussed regional developments in a telephone conversation, according to IRNA.
• An oil tanker exploded in the Strait of Hormuz after hitting a naval mine when it deviated from a navigation route designated by Iran, Mehr News reported.
• Iranian media reported of explosions in Jordan.
• Jordan Army said it downed two drones.
• Israel PM Netanyahu is travelling to Washington for a White House meeting with President Trump tomorrow, I24 reporter said.

Geopolitics: Other

• Israeli official said PM Netanyahu’s planned visit to Washington has been postponed; no reason cited, and no new date has been set.
• CPC’s Black Sea terminal expected to resume oil loadings today following a one week suspension after drone attacks, sources say.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: Jun P Durable Goods Orders, est. 1.8%, prior -4.5%
• 8:30 am: Jun P Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.8%, prior 1.4%
• 10:30 am: Jul Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. 2, prior 0

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Thankfully, in light of my weekend golf-a-thon, the escalating conflict in Iran has paused somewhat. After 13 consecutive nights of US strikes aimed at degrading Iran’s ability to threaten commercial shipping, Washington has refrained from further attacks since late Friday, while Tehran has publicly stated that it has also suspended retaliatory operations. The pause falls short of a formal ceasefire, but both sides are presenting it as an opportunity for diplomacy, with Omani-mediated talks continuing over the weekend focused on navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. US officials, including UN Ambassador Mike Waltz, have stressed that all military options remain on the table and that President Trump is simply giving negotiations more space. However, reports from the New York Times and Axios suggest an active debate within the administration over both the effectiveness and costs of further strikes, with some military officials reportedly arguing that key objectives have largely been achieved. For now, the market is treating the lull as a positive development, although the situation remains highly fluid.

The main market risk remains the energy and shipping front. Traffic through Hormuz remains severely disrupted, while the conflict has broadened into the Red Sea, where Iran-backed Houthi forces reportedly launched missile and drone attacks against Saudi energy infrastructure around Jizan and Yanbu over the weekend, prompting retaliatory Saudi strikes. This raises the prospect of simultaneous disruption to both Gulf and Red Sea export routes. So a welcome pausefrom the main actors but a fragile one, especially with side battles still ongoing.

However there is no doubt the weekend news is positive and this morning Brent crude prices are around -4.5% lower to $92.42  and 10yr USTs are down -4.5bps. S&P 500 futures are up +0.71% with Nasdaq futures gaining +1.17%.

Also on the positive side, the S&P/ASX 200 (+1.14%) is leading regional gains, while the Hang Seng (+0.81%), CSI 300 (+0.25%), and Shanghai Composite (+0.40%) are all higher. However the KOSPI (-0.28%) and Nikkei (-0.14%) are lagging with their tech stocks on the weaker side.  

Looking forward, and as more and more of the financial world steps off the ever-turning carousel of market news and disappears towards sunnier shores, a busy global week lies ahead, with central bank decisions, major economic releases and a heavy slate of corporate earnings all competing for investors’ attention. The Federal Reserve meeting concluding on Wednesday remains the standout event, but investors will also hear from the Bank of England (Thursday) and the Bank of Japan (Friday). Meanwhile, key economic releases include US Q2 GDP and June core PCE inflation (both Thursday), Euro Area Q2 GDP and July inflation data (Thursday/Friday), Japan’s Tokyo CPI (Friday) and China’s official PMIs (Friday). Adding to the significance of the week, four of the world’s most influential companies—Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon, which together account for 17% of the S&P 500—will report earnings, with the first two on Wednesday and the latter two a day later.

The headline event of course comes with the FOMC meeting (Wednesday), where our economists continue to expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged. However, the decision appears unusually finely balanced. The renewed escalation in the Middle East and the sharp rise in energy prices have complicated the inflation outlook, while recent market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved higher as concerns around energy supply disruptions have intensified. Against that backdrop, policymakers face a difficult trade-off between evidence that inflation had been moderating and growing signs that higher oil prices could create a more persistent inflation shock.

It’s rare for a Fed meeting to be this finely balanced so close to the decision. Futures are still assigning a 34% probability to a rate hike this week (-4pps overnight in Asia), a level of uncertainty we seldom see at such a late stage. During the post-Covid hiking cycle, markets did receive a steer via the financial press during the blackout period if the Fed was considering a surprise move. Under the current regime, that appears far less likely.

The Fed decision will sit in the middle of several important data releases. Durable goods orders (today) and the advance goods trade balance (tomorrow) will help shape expectations for the first estimate of Q2 GDP (Thursday). Our economists expect annualised GDP growth of 1.9% in Q2. Although this would mark a downgrade from earlier estimates, much of the weakness reflects a drag from net exports linked to strong AI-related imports. Beneath the surface, domestic demand remains considerably healthier. Indeed, our economists expect final sales to private domestic purchasers, their preferred measure of underlying demand, to rise by a robust 3.3%, which would be the strongest reading since Q3 2024.

Attention will then turn to inflation. The June personal income and spending report (Thursday) includes the latest reading of core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Our economists expect core PCE to increase by 0.19% month-on-month, which would leave the annual rate at 3.3% assuming no significant revisions. That will be followed by the Employment Cost Index (Friday), one of the Fed's preferred measures of labour cost pressures. Our economists expect the annual growth rate to remain at 3.4%, a level many policymakers would still view as broadly consistent with returning inflation towards target over time.
Alongside the macro data, earnings season moves into a critical phase. Around 35% of the S&P 500's market capitalisation is scheduled to report this week. Technology will dominate attention, with Microsoft and Meta releasing results (Wednesday), followed by Apple and Amazon (Thursday). Together, those companies account for 17% of the S&P 500 and will help determine whether investor enthusiasm around AI-related spending remains intact. Elsewhere, notable US earnings releases include Visa and Mastercard in financials, ExxonMobil and Chevron in energy, and Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble in consumer staples.

In Europe, attention will be split between monetary policy and inflation. The Bank of England announces its latest policy decision (Thursday), and our UK economists expect Bank Rate to remain unchanged at 3.75%, accompanied by a 7-2 vote split. See more in their full preview here.

On the data side, Germany and Spain release flash July CPI figures (Thursday), before France, Italy and the Euro Area publish their inflation readings (Friday). Our European economists expect Euro Area headline HICP inflation to rise to 3.0% from 2.8%, while core HICP is forecast to edge higher to 2.52% from 2.36%. The Euro Area's preliminary Q2 GDP estimate is also due (Thursday), while Germany's Ifo survey (today) should provide an updated read on business sentiment.

In Asia, the Bank of Japan decision (Friday) will be the key event. Our economists expect policymakers to keep their current policy settings unchanged. See the preview here. Japan will also release Tokyo CPI, retail sales, industrial production, labour market data and housing starts (all Friday), offering a comprehensive snapshot of the economy at the start of the third quarter. In China, the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs (Friday) will provide the latest evidence on growth momentum. Elsewhere, Australia's June CPI report (Wednesday) will be closely watched for indications about the Reserve Bank's policy path. See the day-by-day calendar at the end for the fuller slate of events this week.

Recapping last week now and oil prices continued to surge as the US-Iran conflict escalated further, with Brent crude up another +9.85% last week (-3.88% Friday) to $96.78/bbl, and peaking above $100. So that added to fears that the global economy was facing a prolonged inflation shock, and that the Fed might need to hike rates more aggressively in response. Indeed, market expectations for a Fed rate hike on Wednesday moved up from 14% to 38% over the course of the week.  

The prospect of more inflation and faster rate hikes meant that sovereign bond yields rose sharply around the world. For instance, the US 10yr Treasury yield was up +12.9bps last week (-1.6bps Friday) to 4.68%, and on Thursday it closed at its highest level since January 2025, at 4.69%. There were also some big milestones for real yields, with the US 30yr real yield up +7.9bps last week (+0.3bps Friday) to a post-2008 high of 2.97%. It was a similar story elsewhere, with Germany’s 10yr bund yield up +4.7bps last week (-3.1bps Friday) to 3.17%, and on Thursday it closed at a post-2011 high of 3.20%.   

Against that backdrop, equities put in a mixed performance around the world. In the US, the S&P 500 fell -0.61% (+0.05% Friday), marking back-to-back weekly declines for the first time since March. That happened despite a recovery in chip stocks, with the Philly semiconductor index up +1.24% last week (-4.25% Friday). And outside the US, equities put in a stronger performance, with the STOXX 600 up +0.46% last week thanks to a +0.82% recovery on Friday as hopes for new US-Iran talks rekindled. The Nikkei was up +0.73% (-2.73% Friday).

Finally in other asset classes, geopolitical fears offered support to the US dollar, with the dollar index +0.70% last week, whilst gold rose +0.88%. Meanwhile, credit spreads widened in the US, with IG spreads (+2bps) and HY spreads (+12bps) both moving higher. And in Europe, IG spreads were flat, while HY spreads widened by +5bps.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/27/2026 - 08:22

Iran Blasts "Freeloader" Zelensky For Ordering Deadly Attack On Caspian Vessel "At Israel's Behest" Summary:

• Iran Accuses Zelensky of Ordering Deadly Caspian Vessel Attack
• Weekend US Crude via IG Markets Down 5% 
• Iran Will Halt Tit-For-Tat Strikes If US Maintains Pause
• Iran, Oman Hold Hormuz Talks As US Pauses Airstrikes For Second Day

*  *  *

//--> //--> US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
Yes 75% · No 26%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Iran Lashes Out at "Freeloader" Zelensky for Caspian Sea Attack

Iran has accused Ukraine of attacking an Iranian commercial vessel in the Caspian Sea, which it says resulted in an explosion that killed one sailor and injured another.

As we previously reported of the Saturday maritime incident, Ukraine seems to be openly boasting of this escalation. President Zelensky himself announced soon after on X, "We also have very good results from long-range strikes in the waters of the Caspian Sea. In particular, these are vessels that were involved in transporting military cargo from Iran, and a warship."

Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned Ukraine’s chargé d’affaires in Tehran to severely protest the "hostile and criminal" attack on Saturday, IRNA reported. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has further warned that the "blatant UN Charter violation" which was "done at Israel's behest" could serve to "drag Europe into its war." Araghchi also denounced and attacked Zelensky personally, calling him the "freeloader in Kyiv"...

Zelenskyy has attacked an Iranian commercial vessel, killing a sailor. A blatant UN Charter violation done at Israel's behest to drag Europe into its war.

In calls with EU High Rep Kallas and FM Lavrov, made clear that what the freeloader in Kyiv did CANNOT GO UNANSWERED.

— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) July 26, 2026

The risk of the Russia-Ukraine conflict merging with the US-Iran conflict seems plausible, but still remains low, and yet the Caspian Sea situation shows that it is actually possible. The Iranians have sought alternative trade and shipping routes via the Caspian, and early in Operation Epic Fury Israeli warplanes reportedly targeted and took out Iranian naval vessels there.

This isn't the first time that FM Araghchi has called out Zelensky. Back in January of this year, for example, he called Zelensky a "confused clown", and said that the Ukrainian leader had been "rinsing American and European taxpayers to fill the pockets of his corrupt generals." The two countries have previously clashed over Iran supplying Russia with Shahed suicide drones.

Iran Will Halt Tit-For-Tat Strikes If US Maintains Pause 

The diplomatic track appears to have opened with the Trump administration's move to pause strikes as a goodwill gesture ahead of the weekend - now in its second day. That created space for Omani officials to meet their Iranian counterparts over the weekend, with Tehran reporting "some progress." The talks have now produced a reciprocal stand-down, under which Iran would halt retaliatory strikes on US bases as long as the US maintains its pause in airstrikes.

Reuters reports:

Iran will halt its own attacks as long as the United States maintains its latest pause on air strikes, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Sunday, after President Donald Trump abruptly called off ‌his two-week-old bombing campaign.

After 13 nights of intensifying U.S. air strikes on Iran, the Pentagon abruptly suspended the campaign late on Friday, with no U.S. attacks reported on either Saturday or Sunday.

Iran, which had been following each night of U.S. attacks with its own strikes on neighboring countries that host U.S. bases, has also so far held fire for two days.

The U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Mike Waltz, told Fox News on Sunday that Trump had decided to pause U.S. attacks to allow more time for diplomacy.

"He's giving talks some space, he's giving it a little bit of room," Waltz said, without providing further details.

The senior Iranian source, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters: "Iran's position remains 'attack for attack': if the attacks stop, Iran will also halt its operations. That message has already been conveyed to the United States."

The source added: "However, Iran is prepared to mount a broad response should the U.S. launch another attack."

Asked about the pause, a senior official in Trump's administration said on Saturday that the president "has always been clear that his preference is diplomacy, but he has shown Iran what will happen if they fail to come to the table in a serious way."

The senior Iranian source said Tehran did not hold much hope that Trump's decision to pause strikes represented a major shift in the U.S. negotiating position.

"There is more skepticism than optimism about the halt in attacks. The prevailing view is that the pause is tactical rather than genuine. Iran has accumulated enough bitter experience with what it sees as U.S. deception," the source said.

As a result of both sides trying to find a diplomatic route to ending the intensifying tit-for-tat strikes that sent Brent crude futures north of $100 a barrel last week, Weekend US Crude via IG Markets is down about 5% as of late morning New York time.

Iran, Oman Hold Hormuz Talks As US Pauses Airstrikes For Second Day

The US military paused its air campaign against Iran for a second consecutive night after nearly two weeks of tit-for-tat strikes. US strikes were aimed at degrading Tehran's one-way attack drone and missile capabilities around the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran hit US bases in the region.

The pause offers the clearest signal yet that a diplomatic off-ramp may be emerging, with Iranian and Omani officials reporting progress in talks to reopen the critical waterway.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said in a Telegram post that he met with the Omani deputy foreign minister and held talks on Friday and Saturday about restoring safe transit for commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.

Baghaei said the officials exchanged views on principles and operational mechanisms for managing safe maritime navigation through the strait.

"The talks were constructive, and some progress was made," he added, noting that technical and political consultations remain ongoing. The Omani delegation left Tehran on Saturday evening.

Camera zooms in to reveal LINE of ships all 'stopped in Strait of Hormuz' — Fars News pic.twitter.com/F8wDPdBDBT

— RTVisual (@RT_Visual_on_X) July 26, 2026

The talks coincided with the US military's two-day pause in strikes and came as Brent crude futures surged into triple-digit territory and the national average for regular gasoline jumped above the politically sensitive $4-a-gallon mark.

JPMorgan's head of Global Commodities Research and Strategy, Natasha Kaneva, told clients last week that Brent prices at this level could increase pressure on Washington to reopen diplomatic channels.

Meanwhile, Iranian Army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia appeared on state television on Sunday and warned the US that any further strikes would widen the conflict.

"I believe that if the Americans once again fall for the Zionists' deception, or move in line with them, and insist on continuing the war, particularly through air strikes, geographically this will expand further," Akraminia warned.

Akraminia said the conflict has already expanded to the Bab al-Mandab Strait on the southern Red Sea, referencing the recent Houthi attacks on tankers.

"The scope of our operations now encompasses the entire region, from US bases in Jordan to the countries along the Persian Gulf," he said.

Earlier, United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported an incident in the southern Red Sea after a "tanker witnessed a splash from an unknown projectile in proximity to the vessel." Details are scant at the moment.

Next week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will travel to Washington, DC to meet with President Trump at the White House on Tuesday.

Latest overnight headlines, courtesy of Bloomberg:

US-Iran Strike Pause

• The US paused its nearly two-week run of nightly strikes on Iran for a second consecutive night as of Sunday morning.
• According to the Telegraph, Trump paused plans to escalate the war after being warned the US is running low on missiles; the pause also allows time for negotiations with Iran.
• Iran's army spokesman said Iran has also paused its retaliatory operations in response to the US halt. Still, he warned that if the US carries out ground operations, American vulnerability would increase.
• Netanyahu said he will discuss the Iran situation with Trump.

Diplomacy & Negotiations

• Trump said Friday the US was "locked and loaded" for major new strikes but had not yet decided whether to proceed while talks with Iran were ongoing; he said Iran would "love to make a deal" but it's not time yet.
• Trump leaned toward diplomacy on Friday, referencing negotiations with Iranian officials six times during a 38-minute Oval Office appearance, while leaving open the possibility of military escalation.
• Iranian and Omani deputy foreign ministers held talks in Tehran on Friday and Saturday on managing safe maritime navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, with some progress reported.
• China urged Iran and the US to return to the ceasefire agreement, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi expressing deep concern over renewed escalation in the Middle East.

Regional Spillover

• Iran-backed Houthis claimed to have fired missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco facilities in Jizan and Yanbu on Saturday; Saudi authorities briefly issued emergency warnings before saying the danger had passed, with no immediate confirmation from the Saudi government or Aramco.
• A UK Navy report on Sunday noted a projectile fell near a tanker in the southern Red Sea; the vessel and crew were reported safe.
• An LPG tanker with 28 Indian crew members was attacked in Iranian territorial waters on Friday; India's embassy confirmed the crew are safe.

Background & Context

• The US had gradually expanded the scope of its strikes over two weeks, hitting bridges and infrastructure deeper inside Iran, after a brief ceasefire in June collapsed over a battle for control of the Strait of Hormuz.
• Billionaire investor Ray Dalio warned that the war's outcome hinges on the Strait of Hormuz, calling a decisive clash imminent.

Previous US-Iran Wrap

• Trump Pursues Diplomatic Off-Ramp As Omani Delegation Arrives In Tehran: Report

Regional Risks

• War Zones Converging? Zelensky Says Ukraine Hit Ship "Transporting Military Cargo" From Iran

Energy Market

• Gas Prices Nearing Levels That Could Push Trump Towards Iran Talks, Says JPM Commodities Expert
• Goldman Warns Brent Could Top $120 If Gulf Chokepoint Crisis Deepens
• RBC Commodities Chief Warns "War Entering Dangerous Phase" As Chokepoint Chaos Risks Oil Above 2008 Peak
• "It's Getting Worse": HSBC Warns Commodities Face Squeeze As Chokepoint Chaos Spreads

Rewiring Gulf Energy Supply Chains

• Seven Pipeline Projects That Could Break Iran's Grip On Hormuz Chokepoint
• Gulf States Considering Network Of New Pipelines To Bypass Strait Of Hormuz
• Great Rewiring: US Supports Iraq-Syria Oil Pipeline To Erode Tehran's Hormuz Leverage
• Dubai's New East Coast Port Signals The Beginning Of End For Iran's Hormuz Leverage

 

 

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/27/2026 - 08:05

Nvidia Weighs $250 Billion Backstop For OpenAI's Gargantuan Ohio Data Center Campus

Nvidia is in early talks to provide up to $250 billion in financing guarantees to help OpenAI lease computing capacity from a planned $500 billion, 10-gigawatt data center facility in Ohio, according to Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter. The proposed deal highlights investor concerns that the AI bubble has been fueled by circular financing.

The SoftBank-led project is located in southern Ohio and, when fully built, would support 10 gigawatts of computing capacity, or roughly equivalent to the output of 10 large nuclear reactors. The first 800-megawatt phase is targeted for 2028. This would rank the facility among the world's largest AI infrastructure hubs.

The potential backstop would help SoftBank secure financing while supporting future demand for Nvidia's chips, further highlighting the circular nature of the AI boom. Sources said Nvidia-OpenAI negotiations are still ongoing and could change at any time.

"While Nvidia's investments and partnerships reinforce confidence in long-term AI buildouts, investors remain concerned about circular financing," said Gary Tan, a portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, as quoted by the media outlet.

Last week we noted ...

The problem with the $2 trillion in circular AI financing is that it is all contingent on the frontiers (Anthropic/ OpenAI) being money good on their $1.5+TN in unfunded commitments. Which they won't be if Chinese open LLMs grab market share

Hence the push against Chinese LLMs

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 23, 2026

The Bank for International Settlements warned last month (read report) that a "disappointment in returns could trigger a sudden pullback in financing and turn the capex boom into a protracted investment bust, with potential knock-on effects on financial conditions." It added that a "major equity-market correction could have larger macroeconomic consequences today than in the past."

Against that backdrop, traders will be laser-focused on this week's Big Tech earnings for signals regarding the trajectory of AI capital spending and, more importantly, whether those investments are beginning to generate adequate returns (read report). Given the high concentration of AI stocks powering major equity indexes higher, the results could determine the market's next big move.

Ed Dowd, writing on the Beyond the Narrative Substack, previously warned that the AI-capex rocket fuel propelling markets may be starting to fade. He identified four factors behind the potential inflection point. Read more here.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/27/2026 - 07:20

Chamath Warns A Government Ban On Open-Source AI Would Tank The Market And Crater Anthropic And OpenAI

Venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya warned that any U.S. move to ban open-source AI would blow a hole in corporate balance sheets and drag the stock market down.

"If the United States government intervenes, it will tank the stock market. Not debatable," Palihapitiya said on the "All-In" podcast released over the weekend. "Now, you can debate which companies get tanked. For example, if they said, 'No more open source. American companies cannot use open source.'"

Chamath: Banning Open Source AI Will Crash the Stock Market. @chamath: "If the United States government intervenes, it will tank the stock market. Not debatable. Now, you can debate which companies get tanked..."

— The All-In Podcast (@theallinpod) July 25, 2026

"Okay, let's take an average normal company, Coca-Cola," Palihapitiya continued. "'Hey, Coca-Cola, you're trying to use AI to improve your business. You know what? You can only use these two options. And those things cost 50-100x more than your other best alternative that you may use otherwise.'"

"That will eventually show up in your costs. And so this incredibly important input into your cost model is now orders of magnitude, multiples greater than your competitors that are outside the United States, simply because you're in the United States," he added. "You're forced to absorb costs that aren't rational nor market-driven. So then Coca-Cola has to get re-rated."

Palihapitiya then turned on the labs themselves, arguing that their revenue depends on government-erected barriers rather than real market demand.

"But then you look at the people who are selling those tokens, and this is where Anthropic and OpenAI need to understand, if the government comes in and actually tells you that there's no open source, their valuation will crater," he said.

"Why? Because all of that revenue is artificially being propped up. It's not being driven by market demand where you're being forced to compete. It's because of regulatory capture where you now get an artificial constraint. But it only works in one market.

"All roads lead to market chaos if anybody gets involved, so we should just not get involved."

Palihapitiya's co-host, former AI and Crypto Czar David Sacks, went further, accusing Anthropic of running to Washington for regulatory cover.

"This is literally the most successful tech company of all time, and they're racing to the government to basically say you need to protect us against our competitors. Not just our Chinese competitors, our American competitors," Sacks said. "Frankly, it's gross."

"This is literally the most successful tech company of all time, and they're racing to the government to basically say you need to protect us against our competitors... Frankly, it's gross." - David Sacks

— (@innovationcncl) July 25, 2026

"If you say that American companies can't use what's in the public domain, or that somehow it's tainted with IP theft, you are basically going to put a dagger through the heart of the entire American open source ecosystem," he added.

The fight has consumed Washington since Moonshot AI's release of Kimi K3. The Beijing startup's open-weight model beat Anthropic's Fable 5 and OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol in blind front-end coding tests, according to Axios, and unlike its closed American rivals, anyone can download it.

Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Palantir and more than 20 other companies fired off a joint letter on Friday urging policymakers to avoid "premature restrictions" on open-weight models, warning that such limits would "stifle competition or drive innovation overseas," CNBC reported.

Open models strengthen safety and cybersecurity, accelerate innovation and diffusion, and enable sovereignty.

— Jensen Huang (@JensenHuang) July 24, 2026

Anthropic did not sign.

If the letter was meant to cool things off, it didn't. The Trump administration spent the week accusing Moonshot of stealing American technology outright. White House science chief Michael Kratsios said Wednesday that Moonshot built Kimi K3 by distilling Anthropic's technology, and accused the startup of obtaining restricted Nvidia GB300 chips through servers in Thailand.

We have information that Moonshot AI distilled Anthropic's Fable. They developed a sophisticated internal platform to conduct large scale distillation against U.S. models... acquired GB300-equipped servers and has accessed GB300s in Thailand, likely to train its AI models.

— Michael Kratsios (@mkratsios47) July 22, 2026

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also weighed in, writing on X: "We support open-source AI and the innovation it unlocks. But open source is not open season on American IP. When PRC firms conduct covert, industrial-scale distillation attacks that cross the line into IP theft, sanctions and Entity List designations will be on the table."

We support open-source AI and the innovation it unlocks. But open source is not open season on American IP. When PRC firms conduct covert, industrial-scale distillation attacks that cross the line into IP theft, sanctions and Entity List designations will be on the table.

— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (@SecScottBessent) July 22, 2026

However, there were signs over the weekend the open-source camp may be winning. Luther Lowe, head of public policy at Y Combinator, posted on X that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told him at Saturday's White House Correspondents' Dinner: "This White House will protect open source AI."

I had a chance to chat with @howardlutnick tonight at the White House Correspondents' Dinner, and he said directly to me: "This White House will protect open source AI."

— Luther Lowe (@lutherlowe) July 25, 2026 Tyler Durden Mon, 07/27/2026 - 06:55

Elizabeth Warren Claims Crypto Clarity Act Would Help Trump... And 'Criminals & Cartels'

Authored by Matthew Di Salvo via BitcoinMagazine.com,

Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren has blasted the Clarity Act draft bill, claiming it would allow criminals and cartels to move money. 

Speaking in a video statement on X Wednesday, Warren hinted that the potential law would allow President Donald Trump to make money from crypto. 

Lawmakers are currently mulling over the latest draft of the Clarity Act, which aims to set in stone digital asset regulation. The latest draft bans officials and their families from issuing or promoting crypto. 

“This latest draft bill would make it easier for criminals, oh, and cartels and terrorists to move money and finance their operations — and it fails to protect investors and our financial system,” Warren said in the video. 

“It’s going to a vote on the floor. There’s a glaring omission: it does not stop Donald Trump from cashing in on his presidency.” 

“This isn’t regulation — this is a giveaway. This bill should be dead on arrival,” added Warren. 

The new draft of the Senate GOP crypto bill does nothing to stop President Trump from making his next $1.4 billion from crypto.

It’ll supercharge Trump’s crypto corruption.

This bill should be dead on arrival. pic.twitter.com/HuNY52n3ex

— Elizabeth Warren (@SenWarren) July 22, 2026

But X users added clarification to Warren’s video, highlighting that the Senate GOP’s updated draft includes ethics provisions banning federal officials from issuing or sponsoring digital assets. 

Trump’s crypto ventures 

Warren has long been a crypto critic, initially arguing that billions of dollars go missing every year thanks to tax dodging crypto users. 

Most recently, Warren has called for a probe into the Trump family’s top crypto ventures. 

President Trump campaigned on a ticket to help the crypto space but some Washington lawmakers have criticized the way the Trump family has profited from digital asset ventures, such as the Republican’s meme coin, TRUMP, and World Liberty Financial project. 

Trump and the White House have always denied any conflicts of interest. 

Latest Clarity Bill 

Senate Republicans began circulating new text of the bill this week, ahead of a possible floor vote. 

US banking representatives, regulators and crypto bigwigs have been meeting at the White House to work on the Clarity Act since last year. 

The bill was passed by the House of Representatives but banking chiefs raised concerns over stablecoins and the yield they will potentially pay customers. 

Banking representatives have warned they could lose their deposit base and, in turn, their ability to lend to U.S. businesses if companies are allowed to pay rewards on stablecoins.

On Thursday, Goldman Sachs chairman and CEO David Solomon became one of the first big bankers to throw his support behind the bill. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/27/2026 - 06:30

Left-Wing Activists Rush To Defend Islamic Migrants After Attack On Berlin Pride Parade

Is "suicidal empathy" the real cause of the western world's immigration crisis?  Or, is the political left completely devoid of empathy?  Is the multicultural agenda so important to them that they're willing to sacrifice their own people to protect it? 

The problem of "intersectionality" and engineered mass immigration is that progressive ideals are not shared or respected by most cultures.  Leftists envision a sweeping coalition of socialist and minority groups joining forces to destroy the "evil colonial west", but they seem to be ignoring the fact that foreign elements entering Europe and the US hate liberals as much as they hate conservatives.   

This might not be stupidity - it might be a calculated risk on the part of woke leaders who are happy to throw a few of their "comrades" to the third world wolves in the service of the "greater good."  A common tactic of Antifa and related organizations in the face of a terror attack or criminal event that makes them look bad is to counter by diverting the public discourse.  The pattern is undeniable and undoubtedly well planned. 

For example, public information on the assassination of Charlie Kirk was immediately diverted with false claims that the shooting suspect (Tyler Robinson) is "right wing".  When that narrative fell apart, they fabricated an elaborate conspiracy theory blaming Israel, Kirk's own organization and his wife. 

As it turns out, Robinson confessed to his family members and his transgender partner that he committed the murder.  The fraudulent theories have been destroyed by the evidence, but the mission was already accomplished - Leftists and their allies were able to derail public outrage and avoid retribution.

Jimmy Kimmel said the Charlie Kirk shooter Tyler Robinson was MAGA. Is he right?pic.twitter.com/n6fhA8mr2k

— You Have to See This (@UHave2C) September 17, 2025

When a minority or migrant commits a heinous crime against a white person, activist groups organize protest events against "whiteness", as if white people are liable for the actions of minorities.   

When attacks on LGBT groups are committed by Muslim suspects, progressives often step in and protest:  Not against Islam, but against western conservatives as the cause of the violence.  The slaughter at the Pulse nightclub in Orlando, Florida is often associated with US conservative movements; the fact that the perpetrator (Omar Mateen) was Muslim is completely washed over.

Someone else is always the culprit and leftists and their "allies" always escape scrutiny.

Now, we see the same pattern in Germany where a Muslim (Abdul Ballout) was shot and killed after ramming a vehicle through a pride parade, killing one person and injuring 29 others.  Leftists are desperate to divert attention away from the Islamic issue and they are brazenly blaming conservatives for the attack. 

The organizers of the parade have made a public statement admonishing anyone who points out that the attack once again proves that Muslim immigration into Europe is a problem.  They assert that the attempted mass murder should not be used to "create division" and at no point did they cite Islam as a potential motivating ideology.

"People are trying to divide our society and set some people against others. As the CSD in Berlin, we will not allow this."

The organisers of Berlin Pride say yesterday's attack must not be used "for political ends".

Latest: https://t.co/1S1CaCFVtz

📺 Sky 501 and Virgin 602 pic.twitter.com/41qBdUbRoL

— Sky News (@SkyNews) July 26, 2026

Activists have rushed to social media to scapegoat the right wing.  In many cases, simply acknowledging the connections between constant attacks in Europe and the mass immigration of third worlders is treated as a trigger for further violence.  In other words, the more conservatives point out the source of the threat, the more responsible they are for the violence against LGBT groups. 

As expected the deranged left wing liberal blames White men for the Islamic terror attack at the Berlin pride event

Says we shouldn’t blame an entire community for the Muslims actions but blames an entire community (white men) for a Muslims actions 😂😂 pic.twitter.com/b61Ev0rroV

— Zee •*. 🔥 (@Zeeeee_xx) July 26, 2026

Of course, Christians in Europe are also the regular targets of attack by Muslim migrants.  Numerous Christmas festivals in Germany have been cancelled in recent years for this very reason.  Muslims keep driving trucks into them and killing people.  But that's of no concern to progressives, and neither is the murder of their fellow activists.  They simply cannot allow conservatives to be right about immigration.

“Hopefully it's a white Christian person, not a person of color” — the vigil speech about the car crash into the CSD now has English subtitles and is ready...

Subscribers skip this queue — their videos get translated first.

Tap Subscribe on @translatemom to jump the line ⚡ pic.twitter.com/DRxmlbTD7b

— TranslateMom (@TranslateMom) July 26, 2026

“Hearing the news that a car — a man in a car [drove into the crowd]… the first thing I thought was: ‘Hopefully it’s not a Kanake (Muslim foreigner)… hopefully it’s a Christian white person.’  But it wasn’t.  That’s where intersectionality comes into play again. We don’t all fight the same battles, but we’re there for each other in moments like these. And that’s beautiful.”

That's right, whenever these attacks occur, leftists are hoping it was a white conservatives behind the wheel or on the trigger, but this is rarely the case.  When it's one of their own or a migrant, they call for unity and intersectionality and shift the blame. 

It's obvious that the multicultural agenda is more important to progressive leaders than the LGBT agenda.  If the woke left actually gets what they want (which is total invasion of the west by the third world) many of their supposed principles will face elimination by those same migrants.  Leftists don't care.  What they want is to burn the west to the ground.  The ends justify the means.  

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/27/2026 - 05:45