Zero Rss

IRGC Targets US Command Center In Syria In Unprecedented Attack

Iran's large-scale 'retaliation' on US bases and Gulf states overnight included a rare first if confirmed. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it conducted a missile or drone attack on an American special operations command center at al-Tanf in Syria on Friday.

The action came after the US bombed Iran for a sixth consecutive night, and while Iranian targets have on several occasions reached into Jordan, it is unprecedented that the Iranians take active aim at sites within Syria.

The IRGC stated the attack was in retaliation for the killing of Iranian soldiers in Iranshahr, in southern Iran.

While the hit on Syria was reported in Reuters based on state media claims, the alleged Tanf strike hasn't been independently verified:

A Syrian military source told Reuters that Iran carried out an attack near al-Tanf, but it had not hit the base itself. There were no casualties or material damage, the source added. 

The episode is the first reported attack on Syria since the US-Israeli war on Iran began in late February.

And more: "The IRGC statement claimed that a radar system, multiple helicopters, and several US personnel were destroyed in the strike. Reuters reported that it has not yet been able to independently verify these claims."

While it is unprecedented or at least unusual for US bases in Syria to come under direct attack by Iran, Tanf base has on multiple occasions come under attack from Iran-aligned Iraqi paramilitaries, and other hostile actors both within Syria and Iraq.

US troops had long operated out of Tanf to pressure the Assad government as part of the long-running US-backed regime change project.

The US primarily trained the Syrian Free Army (FSA) in that remote desert area - which was an umbrella group of various factions, likely among them jihadists, armed and funded by Washington.

But when Assad was finally ousted in December 2024, replaced by an Al-Qaeda group founder (Jolani/Sharaa), this also put Iranian forces in rapid retreat from the country after an over decade-long proxy war.

Syria's new AQ-linked government has been trying to impress its backers by claiming to bust up Iran-Hezbollah axis arms shipments:

🇸🇾🇮🇷🇱🇧 Here's footage of the massive weapons cache that was hidden inside an oil tanker by Iran and bound for Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Until Syria intercepted it along the way.

Inside were hundreds of drones, missiles, and components...

Writer: Michaelpic.twitter.com/4uEykApWFW

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) July 17, 2026

Iran, alongside Russia, had been a close military supporter of the Syrian army, but the Syrian government's collapse - along with the weaking of Hezbollah with the recent Israeli assassination of much of its leadership in Lebanon, caused most Russian and Iranian troops into a hasty and forced withdrawal.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 11:45

Apple's OpenAI Trade-Secret War Ramps Up With Preservation Letters To Dozens Of Ex-Employees

Apple's legal fight with OpenAI is spilling well beyond the courtroom. A week after suing the ChatGPT maker over alleged theft of its hardware secrets, Apple's lawyers have sent personal document-preservation letters to about 40 former Apple employees now working at OpenAI, according to the Financial Times - roughly 10 percent of the some 400 ex-Apple staff now at the company. The letters direct recipients to retain records and demand meetings with Apple's attorneys, FT reports, a breadth that signals the dispute could widen far past the two people named in the original complaint.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman speaks during the Microsoft Build conference at the Seattle Convention Center Summit Building in Seattle in May 2024. | AFP-JIJI

The escalation builds on the blockbuster suit Apple filed July 10 in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California, accusing OpenAI, io Products, and former Apple personnel of misappropriating trade secrets to fast-track AI hardware development. As we reported at the time, the complaint lays out a months-long scheme centered on two former Apple employees now at OpenAI: Tang Tan, OpenAI's chief hardware officer and a former Apple VP of product design, and Chang Liu, a former Apple senior electrical engineer.

Apple alleges the pair directed OpenAI recruits still working at Apple to hand over confidential details on unreleased devices, components, manufacturing processes, and suppliers. According to the filing, Tan instructed interviewees to bring "actual parts" - batteries, logic boards, chip packages - for "show and tell," used Apple's internal codenames to draw out information only insiders would know to ask about, and circulated an Apple "Need to Know" offboarding document to coach new OpenAI hires on how to dodge the company's exit-security checks.

The complaint's allegations against Liu are equally striking. Apple says he kept a work-issued laptop after leaving and discovered a bug that let him reach Apple's cloud file storage while employed at OpenAI, allegedly downloading dozens of confidential files. "LOL, I found out I can access the [network storage], so funny," he wrote to a former colleague still at Apple, according to the filing. Apple further alleges OpenAI approached one of its suppliers using confidential design information and had a partner perform a proprietary metal-finishing technique, misleading the partner into believing Apple had granted permission.

Apple describes the conduct as "the tip of the iceberg" and says OpenAI's hardware business is "rotten to its core" by its reliance on misappropriated information. The company says it first contacted OpenAI in February with its concerns and received no response before filing suit.

OpenAI has denied wrongdoing. "We have no interest in other companies' trade secrets. We remain focused on building innovative technology that empowers people everywhere," a company representative said.

The clash marks a stark reversal for two firms that entered a high-profile partnership in 2024, integrating ChatGPT into Apple Intelligence and Siri. Apple has since turned to Google, using its models as the foundation for a ChatGPT-style voice and text assistant unveiled in June. OpenAI's own hardware push is being led by former Apple design chief Jony Ive - not named in the suit - whose startup io OpenAI acquired last year in a deal valued at $6.5 billion. The mounting legal exposure lands as OpenAI gears up for what is expected to be a historic IPO.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 11:10

Trump To Attend World Cup Final

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump plans to attend the final game of the 2026 World Cup, the White House said on July 16.

Trump was traveling on Friday to New York City to attend a FIFA reception at Trump Tower, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters in Washington. He is then slated to take in the Spain–Argentina final on Sunday at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.

“His attendance will cap what has been the most watched, more secure, and most successful World Cup in American history,” Leavitt said.

“This is a fitting conclusion to a tournament that showcased America’s ability to host the world on the grandest stage.”

The United States had previously hosted the World Cup once, in 1994.

More than 80,000 people are expected to attend the World Cup final on Sunday, which kicks off at 3 p.m. ET.

Trump regularly attends sporting matches, including an NBA finals game in New York City in July and the Club World Cup final in 2025.

Trump has not attended any World Cup games yet, although members of his Cabinet have watched several in person.

The World Cup featured games in Canada, Mexico, and the United States.

The U.S. national team earned a spot in the knockout rounds and defeated Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Round of 32. During that match, the referee handed a red card to American player Folarin Balogun, prompting Trump to call FIFA President Gianni Infantino.

A FIFA committee subsequently suspended the ban that Balogun faced for receiving the red card, enabling the striker to play against Belgium. The United States lost 1–4 in the July 6 game.

Belgium went on to lose to Spain, which then knocked out favorite France. Argentina beat England in the other semifinal.

Argentina won the previous World Cup in 2022 and also has two other triumphs. Spain won the World Cup in 2010 in its sole final appearance.

The two sides have only met once before at the World Cup. Argentina won the 1966 match 2–1.

Infantino said in June that he and Trump would jointly deliver the World Cup trophy to whichever team wins the championship match.

“We will be together with the president enjoying the final and handing the trophy to the winner, of course, together,” Infantino said at the time.

Infantino has praised Trump in the past and awarded him FIFA’s inaugural peace prize in 2025 for the president’s efforts to bring about peace agreements in the Middle East and elsewhere.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 10:50

Zelensky's Cabinet Reshuffle Backfiring As He Names New Defense Minister

Amid a continuing status of martial law in Ukraine, one European headline underscores that President Zelensky's significant cabinet and defense ministry reshuffling has 'backfired'.

Public outrage and rare protests have ensued in the capital and across various cities after he sacked popular Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, who many Ukrainians see as having turned the tide of the war with Russia, implementing an ambitious tech-focused drone strategy.

Zelensky has now confirmed the dismissal by appointing Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) chief Yevhen Khmara as acting defense minister.

Yevhen Khmara, via RBC-Ukraine

"Once the necessary legal procedures are completed, I will ask lawmakers to support Yevhen Khmara's appointment as defense minister," Zelensky announced.

None of this is being received very well among the public, also days after the forced resignation of Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, who was merely six months into the job:

The removal of Svyrydenko and swift appointment of Sergii Koretskyi as Ukraine’s new prime minister barely registered in the public debate, but there was uproar around the defence portfolio.

On Thursday lawmakers approved almost an entirely new wartime cabinet and Koretskyi’s nomination – a move largely seen as logical given his track record as chief executive of state energy giant Naftogaz and his crisis‑management roles at Ukrnafta and Ukrtatnafta.

Inside parliament, Koretskyi vowed to focus on defense, economic stability and EU integration. Outside, thousands of demonstrators made it clear that the real battle who controls the armed forces – and how - had only just started.

Zelensky seemed on the defensive in a Thursday night address explaining his choice for new acting defense chief.

"Yevhen Khmara will serve as acting Minister of Defence of Ukraine. He headed the SSU's Centre of Special Operations Alpha, which has achieved the most effective results in eliminating the occupiers on the front. Alpha consistently ranks number one in the monthly results," he said.

"Khmara was responsible for the long-range operations of the Security Service of Ukraine," Zelensky added. "We agreed that Khmara will also oversee the long-range operations of the Security Forces – this is a priority."

Seeking to put a positive spin on a move which is proving deeply unpopular, Zelensky continued: "He knows exactly what Ukraine needs and is also capable of maintaining control over the internal situation across the components of the defense forces. He has sufficient security experience to prevent disgraceful incidents."

⚡️🇺🇦 BREAKING: Zelenskyy confirms tensions between Fedorov and Syrskyi: “Without me, they won’t sit down together”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has confirmed tensions between former Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov and Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, saying he… pic.twitter.com/olt7DuSalu

— Denys from Ukraine (@GlushkoDenys) July 16, 2026

Chief Foreign-Affairs Correspondent of the WSJ, Yaroslav Trofimov, has pointed out that "Many Ukrainians (and not just Ukrainians) see this as Zelensky putting petty politics ahead of winning the war." If the protests grow rapidly, it could cause Zelensky's external supporters to sour on him.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 10:30

UMich Sentiment Extends Bounce From Record 46-Year-Lows As Gas Prices Ease

Having rebounded from record (46 year) lows in June, University of Michigan's preliminary July Sentiment survey was expected to show further improvement as gas prices fell since the US-Iran 'peace' MoU signing (before rising modestly in the last few days of the reignited conflict).

And indeed it did, headline Consumer Sentiment jumped from 49.5 to 54.4 (51.0 exp) - its highest since February...

"With the second straight month of 10% jumps," said UMich Dirctor of Surveys, Joanne Hsu, pointing out that "consumer sentiment climbed to its highest reading since February of this year on the basis of easing price pressures at the pump in recent weeks."

All five index components improved, led by significant 20% increases in buying conditions for durables as well as year-ahead business conditions.

This month’s rise in sentiment was pervasive across the population, seen across groups by age, income, wealth, and political party.

Particularly strong increases were seen among consumers without a bachelor’s degree.

Year-ahead inflation expectations ticked down from 4.6% in June to a still-elevated 4.2% this month. 

However, Hsu concludes by pouring cold water on the bounce by noting that sentiment’s upward momentum may prove difficult to sustain if recent declines in gas prices continue to reverse course.

Interviews for this release spanned June 23 to July 13, with more than 70% completed before the resumption of US strikes against Iran on July 7 and the subsequent increase in gas prices.

credittrader Fri, 07/17/2026 - 10:07

Burnham Is Facing The Same Dilemma That Has Trapped British Politics Over The Past Decade

By Stefan Koopman, senior macro strategist at Rabobank

To Govern Is To Choose 

Today, Andy Burnham will formally be confirmed as Labour leader. Barring any last-minute surprises, he will become prime minister on Monday. The UK will then have had seven prime ministers in a decade, with five taking office without a general election: May in 2016, Johnson in 2019, Truss and Sunak in 2022, and now Burnham in 2026. 

We have often used these mid-term transfers to make the point that Brexit is like a monster devouring its babies. While we do think that this analogy is becoming increasingly stretched ten years after the vote, Brexit remains an important part of the UK’s story. It has contributed to weak productivity growth, subdued gains in real incomes and stagnant living standards, despite the explicit promise of sunlit uplands. The result is even more disappointment than before, and a never-ending search for a messiah who promises to restore rising prosperity. 

The macroeconomic backdrop helps explain why this search keeps ending in disappointment. The UK's problem increasingly appears to be one of supply rather than demand. In our forecasts for 2024-29, consumption growth never exceeds a paltry 1.2% per year, while per capita spending is broadly flat. Yet inflation remains above target in five of those six years. Weak demand alongside persistent inflation points at persistent supply-side constraints. 

This leaves Burnham facing a dilemma that has trapped much of British politics over the past decade. He inherits high public debt, elevated borrowing costs and weak growth, while demands on the state continue to rise from defence, net-zero and an ageing population. At the same time, investors are increasingly reluctant to finance ever-higher levels of current spending, fearing persistent inflation. That limits the scope for the traditional political response of boosting demand to generate a short-term feel-good factor. If Burnham wants to change the UK's economic trajectory in the run-up to the 2029 election, he will have to focus on expanding supply sooner than later. 

The problem is that expanding supply requires investment long before it delivers results. The UK needs more electricity generation and grid capacity if it wants to electrify industry, housing and transport. It needs more housing, infrastructure and business investment, which means overcoming planning constraints and local opposition. It needs greater labour supply in an economy still characterized by high inactivity and politically toxic immigration. And it needs both public and private capital directed to physical production after years of underinvestment. None of these bottlenecks can be removed quickly. 

For now, markets appear reassured by the expected composition of Burnham's government. The appointment investors feared most, Ed Miliband as Chancellor, appears to have been avoided. Shabana Mahmood is now reported to be the frontrunner for the Treasury. She is widely viewed as closer to Rachel Reeves in her approach to fiscal policy than Miliband is. 

At the same time, she has signalled support for a more active state where investment generates clear economic returns. That matters. If the UK's binding constraint is supply, then it will have to increase public investment. Expanding energy capacity, building housing, upgrading infrastructure and crowding in private capital all require the state to play a role. But higher investment spending cannot easily be layered on top of existing commitments in an environment of limited fiscal space. To create room for supply-enhancing investment, other areas of spending may ultimately face greater scrutiny. 

Markets welcomed this week the absence of a sharp turn to the left, but that alone does not solve the underlying growth problem. A supply-side agenda requires money, political capital, and time. Money remains scarce, with gilt yields near 5%. Political capital depreciates quickly. And recent British prime ministers have rarely been granted much time. If Burnham wants even a remote chance of changing the economic narrative before the 2029 election, he will have to make difficult decisions sooner rather than later. This may also mean testing his popularity with markets once the honeymoon period is over. To govern is to choose.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 09:40

Houston, We Have Shareholders

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

SpaceX’s highly anticipated Starship test flight never made it off the pad Thursday evening. Instead, the launch was scrubbed after what appeared to be an automatic abort during engine startup, marking the first major operational disappointment since the company became publicly traded just weeks ago.

As of this writing, the company has not released a detailed explanation for what happened. SpaceX has only said there will be no launch today, that engineers will review the issue, determine the cause, and announce the next launch opportunity after completing their analysis. Until then, everything circulating online should be treated as speculation, not fact.

That hasn’t stopped launch watchers from dissecting the video frame by frame.

Several engineers and enthusiasts posting on X believe the booster triggered the abort after multiple Raptor engines failed to ignite properly. One widely shared theory suggests four engines in the center ring never achieved a successful startup sequence, while others have speculated that the new Raptor V3 engines may have a more demanding ignition process than previous versions. Those observations may ultimately prove correct, or they may prove completely wrong. At this point, nobody outside SpaceX knows.

But here’s what I know. What makes this different from every previous Starship launch is that SpaceX is no longer just a private engineering experiment. This is the company’s first Starship campaign as a publicly traded company, and that changes some things.

Before the IPO, a scrubbed launch was simply another engineering milestone…on the way to the company’s valuation doing this:

Investors weren’t watching every second because there were no public shareholders marking billions of dollars in value to market every afternoon. Now there are. Every countdown, every static fire, every launch, every anomaly and every explosion is effectively a public earnings report.

That’s simply the reality of being a public company.

I’ve argued repeatedly over the last several weeks that SpaceX’s valuation made very little sense. At one point investors briefly valued the company at well over $2 trillion before the shares gave back a substantial portion of those gains. The stock has now fallen below its $135 IPO price after peaking above $225 shortly after listing, leaving it down roughly one-third from its highs while still carrying an enormous valuation. It’s down another -3.8% after hours as of the time of this writing.

And look…my argument hasn’t been that SpaceX isn’t an extraordinary company, despite what some people argue when I’m being skeptical about valuation. It clearly is. My argument has been that no company deserves a valuation that assumes near perfection forever.

In fact, I’ve said more than once that SpaceX has the potential to become the pin that finally pops this market’s speculative bubble — and maybe even more than that. History is full of beloved companies that were wonderful businesses but terrible investments simply because investors paid absurd prices for them. The bond market seems to potentially agree with this sentiment.

Operational execution has always been the foundation of SpaceX’s story, but now it’s also the foundation of the stock. To be clear, one launch scrub means almost nothing by itself. Launch scrubs happen across the industry and are often the result of systems doing exactly what they’re supposed to do by preventing a launch under questionable conditions.

But now-public investors should not forget that Starship's development has been marked by a number of high-profile setbacks. The first integrated flight test in April 2023 lost control after failing to achieve stage separation and was intentionally destroyed by SpaceX's flight termination system. The second integrated test in November 2023 successfully achieved hot-stage separation for the first time, but both the Super Heavy booster and Starship upper stage were ultimately lost before completing their planned objectives.

Flight 7 in January 2025 ended with the loss of the Starship upper stage during ascent, and Flight 8 in March 2025 also resulted in the loss of the upper stage following another propulsion-system failure. More recently, Flight 12 in May 2026 suffered a significant setback when the Super Heavy booster failed during its return after multiple Raptor engines did not successfully relight. The Starship upper stage, however, continued its mission, deployed its test payloads, survived reentry and completed a controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean.

🔥 50% OFF FOR LIFE: Using this coupon entitles you to 50% off an annual subscription to Fringe Finance for life: Get 50% off forever

Every one of these flights produced valuable engineering data and moved the program forward, but they also served as reminders that developing the world's largest and most powerful launch system remains one of the most technically demanding challenges in aerospace. The difference now is that every one of those outcomes has immediate consequences for shareholders.

For years, SpaceX always had another exciting story to tell. Another funding round. Another valuation increase. Another government contract. Another Starlink milestone. Another private market markup.

Now the company has entered a different phase. It’s put up or shut up time. Public investors will increasingly want to see successful launches, expanding cash flow, continued Starlink execution and tangible evidence that the next phase of growth is materializing.

With the stock now trading below its offering price after a sharp post-IPO reversal, there’s still plenty of optimism embedded in the valuation despite the recent decline. The market may start to demand (at least some) demand execution instead of simply rewarding potential.

None of this means today’s scrub is the beginning of a larger problem. It may wind up being nothing more than a minor startup issue that engineers resolve in a matter of days.

But that’s precisely why it’s worth watching. From this point forward, every Starship launch is no longer just a rocket launch. It’s also a referendum on one of the largest and most expensive public companies in the world.

That dynamic didn’t exist a month ago. Now it does.

--

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions.

As of May 20, 2026 I personally no longer actively trade (read my story here). My investing/saving is done by recurring contributions mostly to sector ETFs and a few select equities, trusted third parties who oversee my accounts, and advisors. Such advisors or funds, through individual equities, options, index funds, mutual funds, ETFs, or other securities, may have positions in, exposure to, or holdings of names mentioned herein that I know nothing about. Basically, via index funds, ETFs and individual equities it is possible I could own, have exposure to, or not own anything at any point. As of the same date, May 20, 2026, in an attempt to lead a healthier lifestyle, I’ve also excluded myself from fantasy sports, sports betting, online and in-person casinos and prediction markets.

And all positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 09:25

US Industrial Production Disappoints (Again) In June

US Industrial Production rose just 0.1% MoM in June (less than the 0.2% MoM rise expected), after also disappointing in May. That slowed the annual growth in production from 1.6% YoY to +1.1% YoY...

The recent blip higher in Capacity Utilization faded last month (76.1% vs 76.2% exp) with the down-trend seemingly still in tact...

If 'soft' survey data is in any way predictive of reality, then we should be seeing a sizable trend higher in industrial production...

...or maybe it's just another useless sentiment signal.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 09:21

Historic NYC Church Torched In Confirmed Arson - City Rejects Save Plan As Demolition Ordered

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

The FDNY has now confirmed what many suspected from the start: the massive fire that gutted the historic South Bushwick Reform Church in Brooklyn was intentionally set. The 1853 landmark, a Greek Revival structure that served generations of worshippers as both a house of faith and a community hub, is a total loss, and it will be completely torn down.

CBS New York reported the determination this week. Pastor James E. Steward II made clear the congregation never saw it coming.

"It was more than just a building. It's lives and generations of lives that have been touched," Steward said. "We have no known enemies."

CBS New York says the New York City Fire Department have come to the conclusion the historic Christian church recently set on fire was "intentionally set"

The South Bushwick Reform Church was built in 1863 and served generations of worshippers. It will be completely torn down... pic.twitter.com/npo7KfWQjV

— Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) July 16, 2026

He added: "Now we understand it is intentional, which brings another layer of grief to myself, as well as the congregation and the community." And: "Whoever is responsible for this ultimately has to answer to God."

No arrests have been made. Investigators previously noted a person of interest seen fleeing the scene on video shortly before the June 19 blaze erupted. The three-alarm fire brought down the steeple and left the wooden structure irreparable in the eyes of city officials.

Yet the congregation and local supporters pushed to preserve what remained. An independent structural engineer assessed the site as sound enough for restoration efforts focused on the attached fellowship hall and surviving elements. The city's Department of Buildings rejected the plan. Demolition is set to begin in August. The agency is led by Commissioner Ahmed Tigani.

!!! NYC Department of Buildings rejects plan to save a 174-year-old church in Bushwick that burned via arson

Demolition is set to begin in August

Ahmed Tigani leads the agency pic.twitter.com/KbIwgu1vux

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) July 14, 2026

This is not an isolated loss. Just weeks earlier, a 138-year-old church in Astoria, Queens, suffered a devastating "mystery" fire in April. The city rejected proposals to rebuild. The structure was demolished two weeks later.

> 138 year old church in Astoria, NY

> is damaged by mystery fire in April

> the city rejects proposal to rebuild

> church is demolished 2 weeks later pic.twitter.com/JsXaNpemhw

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) July 14, 2026

The losses mirror those in Europe, where a spate of church attacks have occurred.

In France, nearly 50 fires or arson attempts hit churches and Christian sites in a single recent year - a sharp rise - with authorities recording a Christian religious building vanishing every two weeks through fire, collapse, or deliberate damage.

Recent examples include the June blaze that destroyed most of the roof at the 17th-century Chapelle Sainte-Anne-des-Rochers in Brittany and the gutting of the Église Saint-Cyriaque in Montenach.

 

Canada has seen the same. Historic churches have been reduced to ashes with causes left unresolved and little urgency from authorities.

In the UK, churches face routine attacks while official outrage is selectively applied. A historic London church burned to the ground amid government silence, even as leaders scrambled to respond to incidents involving other faith sites.

 

In New York the physical symbols of the city's Christian heritage are vanishing under official processes that prioritize teardown over preservation. The South Bushwick congregation is left raising what funds it can while the city bills the church for its own demolition and prepares the site for whatever comes next. The Astoria church is already gone.

These buildings stood for more than a century as anchors of community and continuity. Their rapid destruction, followed by bureaucratic refusal to allow rebuilding, fits a larger pattern playing out from Brooklyn to Quebec to provincial France. The foundations that built Western cities are being burned and demolished.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 08:55

Watch: Trump Reveals 'Shocking' Election Vulnerabilities Including 278,000 Fraudulent Voters

Update (2110ET): Trump has released several major election-related findings: 

• Mass declassification event - The White House just released previously classified Intelligence Community assessments and reports on election infrastructure spanning January 2020 through June 2026.
• Adversary capability finding - A quoted IC assessment states Russia, China, Iran, North Korea "at a minimum," plus non-state groups, have the capability to compromise U.S. election infrastructure.
• Weakest-link identification - Centralized data repositories (voter registration databases, pollbooks, official election websites) are assessed as the systems most vulnerable to exploitation and disruption.
• Venezuela proof-of-concept - CIA reporting allegedly detailed a Maduro-regime plot to digitally rig Venezuela's 2020 elections using methods that could alter vote totals undetectably "even with an audit."
• China's 220 million voter files - The PRC allegedly acquired 220 million U.S. voter files beginning in the 2020 cycle - framed as the largest election-data compromise in history - and assigned a dedicated data exploitation unit to it.
• Alleged intelligence cover-up - The document claims IC officials ("Deep State") suppressed knowledge of the China compromise from both the President and the public, despite the IC discovering it in 2020 across 18 states.
• Michigan registration fraud files - FBI documents allegedly show canvassers for a Democrat GOTV operation in Muskegon admitted forging registrations, registering nonexistent people, and receiving gift cards tied to application volume after a 2020 Michigan State Police raid.
• Enforcement directive - The release asserts the Biden DOJ slow-walked the Michigan case for years; FBI Director Patel is now directed to complete the investigation and pursue prosecutions with DOJ.
• 278,000 noncitizen registrants - A DHS review of voter rolls and public records allegedly identified ~278,000 noncitizens registered for federal elections, with the White House asserting the true number is higher because Democrat-led states withheld their files.
• Policy endgame and rolling campaign - The four pillars converge into an argument for Voter ID, proof of citizenship, and curtailing mail ballots, with a mailing list promising "new findings, new filings, and next steps" - signaling a serialized release-and-enforcement campaign rather than a one-time disclosure.

Watch:

The White House has published election integrity findings built around four pillars, accompanying a presidential address and a declassification of Intelligence Community assessments spanning January 2020 through June 2026. The pillars: (1) IC findings that Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and non-state actors have the capability to compromise U.S. election infrastructure, with centralized data repositories - registration databases, pollbooks, election websites - assessed as most vulnerable; (2) an alleged CIA-reported Maduro-regime plot to digitally rig Venezuela's 2020 elections using methods undetectable "even with an audit," offered as proof-of-concept that electronic vote manipulation is possible; (3) China's alleged acquisition of 220 million U.S. voter files beginning in 2020 - framed as history's largest election-data compromise, complete with a dedicated exploitation unit - which the document claims "Deep State" intelligence officials concealed from both the President and the public; and (4) FBI files on a 2020 Muskegon, Michigan raid of a Democrat GOTV operation where canvassers allegedly admitted forging registrations for pay, a case the Biden DOJ purportedly slow-walked and which FBI Director Patel is now directed to investigate and prosecute. A DHS review claiming roughly 278,000 noncitizens on federal voter rolls rounds out the disclosures.

The findings describe foreign-held voter data, hackable machines, buried fraud evidence, and noncitizen (and "dead people") registrations against a system with no voter ID, no proof of citizenship, and mass mail balloting - while a mailing list promising "new findings, new filings, and next steps" signals a serialized campaign with litigation or enforcement actions queued behind the document drops. 

Update: According to the NY Post's Caitlin Doornbos, Trump is expected to reveal at least 278,000 noncitizens who are registered to vote in US federal elections - a figure arrived at by the Department of Homeland Security in an upcoming report. 

This is what Kamala Harris had to say prior to President Trump’s speech. pic.twitter.com/qBMean2VJm

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) July 17, 2026

* * *

President Donald Trump is expected to use a prime-time address Thursday night to discuss election integrity and potentially unveil 'four sets' of newly declassified intelligence concerning alleged foreign interference in recent U.S. elections, according to reports.

MSNBC; Getty Images

Trump is scheduled to address the nation at 9 p.m. ET tonight - only revealing that it would focus on election security and related concerns.

"Our country has to shape up," Trump said during an Oval Office appearance with Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaid. "Without free and fair elections, you don't have a country."

Journalist Paul Sperry reported on X that the address could include allegations that U.S. intelligence and law-enforcement agencies recently uncovered evidence of foreign interference involving China - not Russia - in recent elections, including the 2020 presidential contest.

Citing an unnamed administration source who had reportedly reviewed a draft of Trump's speech, Sperry claimed the evidence includes allegations that Chinese actors penetrated state voter-registration databases and obtained information concerning tens of thousands of voters.

According to Sperry, officials believe the stolen information may have been intended for use in manufacturing fraudulent mail-in ballots supporting Joe Biden. He also claimed that CIA Director John Ratcliffe and FBI Director Kash Patel would appear with Trump or otherwise certify the evidence presented by the administration.

Flashback: Chuck Grassley reveals records showing the FBI spiked a Chinese election interference probe

The documents were reportedly drawn from previously undisclosed or suppressed FBI, CIA, and ODNI records. Sperry's source alleged that the intelligence had been buried as part of a broader effort to conceal Beijing's cyber capabilities and influence operations.

The "really big news" President Trump plans to announce in Thursday's primetime address, according to an administration source who's read a draft of his speech, includes bombshell evidence China interfered in the 2020 election to help Joe Biden win, including hacking into state voter registration databases and stealing information on tens of thousands of voters ostensibly to manufacture mail-in ballots for Biden.

The evidence, which details "alarming vulnerabilities" of election infrastructure, is based on four (4) sets of declassified documents (set for release Friday) which were recently unearthed from suppressed FBI, CIA and ODNI records, according to the well-placed source. The intelligence had been buried in a "massive cover-up" of Beijing's hacking capabilities and influence operations aimed at supporting Biden.

Other vulnerabilities compromising the U.S. election system, according to a draft of the president's speech, include the existence of more than 100,000 non-citizens, including illegal immigrants, on voter rolls. -Paul Sperry

The source characterized the alleged penetration of the 2020 election system as more extensive than the Russian interference described by U.S. officials following the 2016 election.

So here's what we're learning from all these declassified materials: The US Intelligence Community *juiced* intel to make it seem like Moscow interfered in the 2016 election to help Trump, but then *buried* intel indicating Beijing interfered in the election to help Biden in 2020

— Paul Sperry (@paulsperry_) July 14, 2026

The expected disclosures reportedly concern vulnerabilities in state election infrastructure, including voter-registration databases, identity verification, mail-in voting, and ballot security.

//--> //--> //--> Will Trump accuse China of election interference by July 16?
Yes 40% · No 61%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

Sperry also reported that a draft of Trump's address references more than 100,000 noncitizens - including people living in the country illegally - appearing on voter rolls. It was not immediately clear which states or databases were included in that figure, how the administration calculated it, or whether all the registrations were active.

Administration Expands Election Integrity Campaign

The address comes as the Trump administration and congressional Republicans intensify their efforts to change federal election policy before the midterms.

Earlier in July, Trump fired members of the bipartisan Election Assistance Commission, the federal agency that assists state and local election officials and oversees the certification of voting systems. The administration has also pursued the creation of a nationwide database of eligible voters and expanded citizenship-verification efforts. Several of those initiatives have encountered resistance in federal court. On June 25, a federal district judge in Massachusetts sided with states challenging the administration's voter-list initiative, ruling that the Constitution leaves states with significant authority over elections. Meanwhile, a federal judge in Washington blocked an updated citizenship-verification database the following day, finding that the program conflicted with federal privacy and Social Security laws.

Then on July 7, a federal judge in Georgia quashed Justice Department subpoenas seeking information about election workers involved in Fulton County's administration of the 2020 election.

Harmeet Dhillon, who leads the Justice Department's Civil Rights Division, has also sent letters to election officials in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The letters warned that officials could face criminal liability if they knowingly allow ineligible noncitizens to remain on voter rolls.

Democrats, Of Course, Freak Out

Democratic lawmakers are of course in full-on panic mode over the 2020 claims, suggesting that Trump could use the address to revive disputed allegations about the 2020 election or justify new federal intervention in the midterm election process.

Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, questioned whether the administration could possess significant new intelligence that had not previously been provided to congressional overseers. Warner told the Epoch Times; "having been deeply involved with the intelligence community for the last decade plus, I would be shocked if there was some major new piece of intelligence that never was shared." He also warned against using questionable or selectively presented intelligence as the basis for government action affecting elections.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York said Democrats were preparing for several possible scenarios involving the address and the administration's next steps.

Sperry separately reported that the White House had encountered resistance from the three major broadcast television networks over requests to carry the address live. He attributed the hesitation to concerns that the speech might repeat claims that the 2020 election was stolen.

The networks' plans and the White House's reported discussions with them had not been publicly confirmed.

Trump has described the forthcoming announcement as "really big news." Whether the address produces verifiable new evidence - or intensifies the existing partisan conflict over election administration - will likely depend on the contents, sourcing, and independent authentication of any documents released by the government.

SAVE America Act Remains Stalled

Trump has repeatedly called on Congress to approve the Republican-backed SAVE America Act, which would require documentary proof of citizenship when registering to vote and photo identification when casting a ballot.

The legislation passed the House but has stalled in the Senate, where most bills need 60 votes to overcome a filibuster. Republican leaders have considered incorporating similar provisions into a third budget-reconciliation package. The reconciliation process would allow legislation to pass the Senate with a simple majority, although provisions must comply with rules requiring them to have a direct effect on federal spending or revenue.

The Senate parliamentarian previously determined that certain SAVE America provisions did not comply with those restrictions. House Republicans released a $95 billion framework for the reconciliation package on July 15. The proposal could include federal funding to help states establish voter-identification requirements.

The House Budget Committee scheduled a markup of the legislation for July 16. Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington of Texas said the package would help protect the integrity of U.S. elections.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 08:44

Renter Nation Returns? Massive Jump In Multi-Family Unit Starts Despite Builder Sentiment Slump

US Housing Starts exploded higher by 19% MoM in June, dramatically more than the already large 11.2% MoM expectation and rebounding from the prior two ugly monthly declines.

This was the biggest monthly increase in Starts since May 2023.

On the other side, the more forward-looking Building Permits declined for a second straight month...

This shouldn't be a total surprise after yesterday's decline in builder sentiment (confidence among US homebuilders dropped for a second month to the lowest level of the year, dragged lower by elevated borrowing costs and higher material and land prices).

The surge in Starts was dominated by a massive rebound in multi-family units.

• Single-family down 0.2% to 895K

• Multi-family (rentals) soar 76.3% to 513K from 293K, fully reversing the May drop from 494K to 291K

We can't help but question WTF happened in the May multi-family starts data...

Permits were down among both cohorts:

• single family down 2.4% to 871K SAAR, lowest since August '25

• multi-family down to 4.9% to 445K SAAR, lowest since March '26

Additionally, Building Permits are tracking rate-hike expectations (inverted)...

Multi-family Starts are back above Permits (perhaps signaling the short-term peak)...

It seems recent rises in the mortgage rate (and inventories already at over-stuffed levels, given the slowness of sales) has finally dented the homebuilders' self-satisfying confidence... and the lack of affordability leaves the American Dream fading into Renter Nation...

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 08:43

Futures Tumble As Latest Chinese "DeepSeek Moment" Sparks Chip Meltdown

A surprise breakthrough from Chinese AI startup Moonshot (which is now at the top of the Frontend code benchmark on Arena) rumbled through global markets, sending chip stocks reeling, as queasiness returned about the industry’s unprecedented spending spree (something we have been warning about for the past year). Moonshot claims its new Kimi K3 model rivals top offerings from OpenAI and Anthropic in a release reminiscent of last year’s “DeepSeek moment.” It came as President Xi Jinping appeared at China’s premier AI summit, underscoring how rapidly the nation’s AI developers are closing the gap with US rivals (discussed here a month ago). Meanwhile, delays by Alphabet to the launch of the latest Gemini model has also dented tech sentiment. As a result as of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are 0.8% lower with Nasdaq futs tumbling 1.7%; pre-market, Mag 7 are all lower with NVDA (-2.8%), AMZN (-2.1%), and META (-1.8%) among the most notable decliners. AI and Semis concerns continued to dominate the market narrative overnight ahead of Mag 7 earnings next week. What is different from the past few weeks of momentum selloff is that both Mag 7 and Semis were being sold overnight and yesterday, pointing to "concerns over hyperscalers’ AI CapEx and the sustainability of the AI rally" according to JPM. Moonshot’s AI model release also led to further concerns in China AI model competition and questions on AI CapEx (“DeepSeek 2.0” concerns): overnight, Asia AI baskets and China AI baskets (which include Moonshot’s competitors Z.AI and MiniMax) fell 5-8%. Bond yields are lower across the curve: 2y and 10y are 2.1bp and 2.8bp lower, respectively. Oil added another 1.8%; WTI now at $80.47 this morning after Kuwait said power and water plants were attacked by Iran as hostilities in the Gulf escalate with every passing day. Both base and precious metals are higher this morning. US economic data calendar includes June import/export price index, and June housing starts (8:30am), June industrial production (9:15am) and July preliminary University of Michigan sentiment (10am). 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all lower (Nvidia -2.4%, Amazon -1.4%, Microsoft -1.9%, Tesla -1.7%, Alphabet -1.5%, Meta Platforms -1.5%, Apple -0.1%). Chipmakers and other AI-related firms are set to extend their selloff amid a broad unwind of the tech trade. Marvell Technology (MRVL) -2%, Qualcomm -2%.

• Autoliv (ALV) falls 5% after the airbag and seatbelt maker reported second-quarter adjusted earnings per share that narrowly missed consensus estimates.
• Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) tumbles 10% after the robotic-surgery company maintained its forecast for Worldwide da Vinci robotic procedure growth for the full year, even as its second-quarter results came in ahead of the average analyst estimates.
• Netflix (NFLX) falls 10% after the streaming giant forecast a second consecutive quarter of slowing sales growth. Analysts note that the tepid current quarter forecast is overshadowing an otherwise in-line quarter.
• Staar Surgical (STAA) drops 8% after the maker of implantable lenses posted preliminary second quarter results where sales in Europe, theMiddle East and Africa declined by a low single-digit percentage, reflecting ongoing turmoil in the Middle East.

In other corporate news SpaceX aborted Thursday’s Starship rocket mission when some of its engines didn’t fire up, it's stock tumbled another 3% to $125, the lowest since its IPO less than two months ago. US regulators traced a parasite outbreak that’s sickened thousands in Michigan and nearby states to shredded iceberg lettuce served at Taco Bell restaurants, identifying a single supplier as the apparent source.

Tech is once again dragging futures lower in early trading as questions over momentum, semiconductor capex and hyperscaler debt persist, masking a powerful rotation beneath the surface. Traders rushed to exit positions in stocks that had fueled this year’s rally, sending the Nasdaq tumbling. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index posted an all-time high in Thursday’s cash session and the VIX remains below the key psychological level of 20, but the S&P 500 is down on the week and set to deepen those losses on Friday.

Stock investors are taking profits on crowded positions in chip-related stocks, with a key gauge of industry giants still up 68% this year. For Francisco Simon, European head of strategy at Santander Asset Management, the selloff still looks moderate in comparison to the preceding rally. “We would distinguish between fundamentals and positioning,” he said. “From a fundamental perspective, the picture remains solid: earnings momentum has been exceptional this year, and results are still coming in strongly.”

Beata Manthey, head of European and global equity strategy at Citigroup, says sharp stock rotations are necessary for the equity rally to broaden beyond the tech sector. “The market has started to hope for some long-awaited broadening,” Manthey told Bloomberg Television. “For that to happen, you need to have some rotations, and rotations tend to happen in quite a violent way sometimes — and this is what we’re seeing right now.”

Also in tech, the marquee listing of CXMT ignited a rush among retail investors as China’s homegrown memory giant opened books for an IPO to raise $9.8 billion, the second-largest in the nation’s history. The retail portion of the IPO was 212 times oversubscribed. President Xi hailed China’s progress in developing low-cost AI in his debut at the World AI Conference in Shanghai on Friday. The rise of China’s AI models shaping the technology’s global rules is stirring security alarms in Washington and Beijing alike.Elsewhere, Japanese memory chipmaker Kioxia’s market capitalization has now halved in just a month since becoming the nation’s most valuable company. 

“When there’s panic, no one wants to be the last one in a selloff, so the selling pressure increases,” said Guillermo Hernández Sampere, head of trading at MPPM. “With the start of reporting, the suspicion of overvaluation has been confirmed and will continue for a bit.”

In short, chipmakers and other AI-related firms are set to extend their selloff amid a broad unwind of the tech trade. Meanwhile Netflix, already more than 40% lower in the past year, is also weighing on tech sentiment. The streaming giant fell 10% in premarket trade Friday after forecasting a second consecutive quarter of slowing sales growth, fanning fears for its future.

Cash would offer good protection in the near term, Simon at Santander Asset Management said. Bonds are a less attractive option as higher oil prices could undermine the defensive characteristics of sovereign debt. “The key reassurance would probably come from the earnings season,” he said. “If companies continue to deliver solid results, and valuations become more attractive after the correction, that could help bring longer-term buyers back.”

Another day of attacks and counterstrikes in the Middle East also weighed on sentiment. Concerns are growing that the US and Iran will intensify hostilities, making oil tanker operators wary of transiting the Strait of Hormuz.  

In geopolitics, Trump accused China of interfering with US elections in 2020, claiming the Chinese government stole voter files, including names, addresses and other sensitive data. The US administration said it would shorten the duration of visas for foreign journalists - raising concern about a new round of tit-for-tat restrictions with China.

Meanwhile, the Fed’s Vice Chair Philip Jefferson suggested the central bank should consider raising interest rates if inflation doesn’t cool soon. 

Selling by US corporate insiders raised another red flag about investor caution. Executives sold $77.6 billion of stock during the first half, according to EPFR Global Market Intelligence, the second-highest amount in more than 20 years a classic red flag to some investors because it suggests people with the most corporate knowledge are wary about markets.

European equities edged lower on Friday. with technology and mining shares leading declines, while utilities and telecommunications stocks outperform. Tech subindex of the Stoxx 600 down to the lowest since May. Here are the biggest movers on Friday:

• Tomra gains as much as 16% after the recycling equipment firm’s 2Q report beat expectations and the firm announced a contract to supply 1,200 recycling machines with a large UK retailer
• EQT rises as much as 13% after the investment firm’s first-half earnings beat estimates, providing some relief to a stock that had fallen more than 20% year-to-date through Thursday
• Getinge shares jump as much as 10% after the Swedish health-care equipment firm reported second-quarter sales and earnings which JPMorgan says were better than expected
• Assa Abloy gains as much as 6.2%, the most in a year, after the Swedish lock and entrance systems maker reported its latest earnings
• European semiconductor stocks decline across the board on Friday. AI trades that were popular in the first half lose ground amid concerns over the sustainability of AI spending
• Lagercrantz shares plunge as much as 16%, its biggest drop since 2022. The industrial conglomerate posted quarterly margins and earnings that missed expectations, according to DNB Carnegie
• AAK sinks as much as 12% after the Swedish maker of vegetable oils and fats saw a softer second quarter, impacted by lower volumes, price pressure in Food Ingredients and production-related challenges at its Karlshamn site
• DKSH shares fall as much as 8.3%, the most since September, after the Swiss conglomerate reported operating profit for the first half-year that missed the average analyst estimate
• Burberry shares fall as much as 7.3% after the UK luxury brand posted first-quarter results that were weaker than expected in Europe and Asia
• Valterra Platinum slipped as much as 2.4% after the miner reported 2Q earnings and 1H guidance. Analysts note that 2Q own mined volumes missed, while PGM refined production was in line

Asian stocks slipped the most in three weeks despite robust earnings from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., highlighting how elevated expectations have become for AI-related companies. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 2.8% and is headed for a second straight weekly decline. TSMC fell more than 7%, triggering a correction in Taiwan’s Taiex. The Nikkei 225 slid 4% as Japanese chip-related stocks such as Kioxia Holdings Corp. and Tokyo Electron Ltd. came under pressure. Hong Kong and mainland China also declined, while South Korea’s markets were mercifully closed for a holiday, even though the KORU 3x levered korea ETF plunged. TSMC reported a faster-than-anticipated 77% jump in quarterly net income and raised both its revenue and spending projections. The main chipmaker for Nvidia Corp. now expects sales to grow more than 40% this year and plans to spend as much as $64 billion in 2026, reflecting confidence that AI-driven demand for chips and data centers will remain strong. Some markets with lower exposure to AI such as Indonesia, the Philippines and India rose. Malaysia’s benchmark stock index gained 0.5% as the country reported a surprise surge in economic growth in the second quarter. Investors will focus on earnings for companies including CATL and Shin-Etsu Chemical in the week ahead. Other key events include Indonesia’s monetary policy. The Jakarta stock index has climbed for seven straight sessions, the longest streak in about a year. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.1%, with the Swiss franc outperforming among major currencies while the Aussie dollar and sterling lag. Traders continued to dial down expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes this year. 

In rates, treasuries hold modest gains despite the rise in oil prices, sending 10-year yields four basis points lower to 4.52% with US stock index futures under pressure from chipmaker shares after surprise breakthrough from Chinese AI startup Moonshot and Alphabet’s delayed launch of latest Gemini model. Limiting gains, oil futures are up more than 2% after Kuwait said power and water plants were attacked by Iran. Treasury yields are 2bp-4bp lower led by 5- to 10-year sectors, flattening 2s10s curve by about 1bp; 10-year near 4.51% outperforms bunds and gilts in the sector by 2bp and 1bp respectively. 

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are up 2.6% near session highs, heading for biggest weekly gain since April as the escalating conflict between the US and Iran disrupts Middle East supply. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far, though Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo are expected to tap the market as soon as Friday; weekly volume is near $47 billion. Gold moving higher but short of $4,000/oz.

US economic data calendar includes June import/export price index, and June housing starts (8:30am), June industrial production (9:15am) and July preliminary University of Michigan sentiment (10am). Fed calendar is blank; external communications blackout period commences Saturday ahead of the July 29 policy decision

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• US President Trump announced the immediate declassification of intelligence on elections during his primetime address and noted that China engaged in election-related activities in 2020 and did not want him to win the election, while he claimed that China attempted to manufacture ballots for Biden and worked to influence businesses against him. China's Foreign Ministry denied these accusations.
• China’s Moonshot AI has launched an artificial-intelligence model, Kimi K3, it says outperforms some cutting-edge U.S. systems, the latest sign that Chinese labs can rival American counterparts like OpenAI and Anthropic in critical technology frontiers. WSJ
• The U.S. struck multiple bridges in Iran on Thursday to cut off supply routes to a port city and naval base in the Strait of Hormuz that Iran uses to attack ships and project power, according to a senior U.S. official. Several attacks on bridges were reported in and around the port city of Bandar Abbas overnight Thursday, and highways connecting Bandar Abbas to nearby provinces were declared closed, according to Iran’s state broadcaster IRIB. WSJ
• Two US-sanctioned tankers carrying cooking fuel are U-turning and navigating in the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea as the US steps up enforcement of its blockade on Iranian shipping. A third sanctioned LPG vessel is indicating China as its destination. BBG
• Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi called for households and the GPIF to increase investment in domestic financial assets, fueling expectations of possible allocation changes at the fund. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated her willingness to take “decisive action” in currency markets. BBG
• Xi Jinping called for inclusive cooperation on AI development and urged the world to avoid technological rivalries at China’s top tech summit. BBG 
• The ECB will probably pause to assess inflation next week before delivering a final rate hike in September. BBG
• New York City air quality remains at “unhealthy” levels today as the EPA warned people to spend more time indoors, with wildfire smoke blanketing much of the East Coast. Several communities across northern Ontario have initiated evacuation to avoid the blaze. BBG
• BP and ConocoPhillips are set to announce billions of dollars of new investments in Iraq on Friday as Washington seeks to bolster the country’s energy sector and reduce the region’s reliance on routes vulnerable to Iranian disruption, according to people familiar with the plans. CNBC
• A top executive at Amazon’s cloud division plans to join Meta Platforms in the coming weeks, a sign of the social-media giant’s growing ambitions in developing data centers and computing resources. Dave Brown, one of the most senior executives at Amazon Web Services, will bring his nearly two decades of experience to Meta, where he will report to the company’s head of infrastructure and focus on the firm’s data center build-out. WSJ 
• US President Trump called on Congress to pass the Save America Act in light of recent revelations.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were pressured as the tech selling rolled over from Wall St and with sentiment weighed on by US-Iran escalation, in which the US conducted a sixth consecutive night of strikes on Iran and targeted infrastructure, including an airport, railway station and several bridges. ASX 200 was dragged lower by weakness in mining, materials, resources and tech, while telecoms, energy and defensives were at the other end of the spectrum, helping cushion the downside. Nikkei 225 underperformed and took the brunt of the semiconductor sell-off in the absence of its South Korean counterpart due to Constitution Day, while Kioxia was heavily pressured and has shed 50% of its market cap from last month's peak. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the downbeat mood amid the tech-related woes, and with sentiment also not helped by US President Trump's primetime address, in which he accused China of meddling in the 2024 US Election and called for Congress to pass the SAVE America Act.

Top Asian News

• Japanese PM Takaichi said the government will pursue steps that encourage investment in Japanese financial assets, including by households and pension funds like the GPIF.
• Chinese President Xi said that the world has entered an unprecedented period of AI innovation, adding they should seize rare historic opportunities to encourage open source AI.
• China FX regulator said foreign investments into China saw net inflows in H1 and outbound investments continue to grow steadily.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.7%) are broadly lower, following on from the weakness in Asia (Nikkei -4%, Hang Seng -2.1%), with clear underperformance seen in the AEX (-1.0%) and FTSE MIB (-0.8%). Tech (ASML -4.2%, STMicroelectronics -6.9%) is the clear underperformer following the sharp selloff overnight in APAC names, as worries of stretched valuations persist. Despite the selloff, this week has been broadly positive in the tech space, with both TSMC and ASML reporting strong Q2 figures that beat estimates. Today's weakness just shows that, despite positive news, concerns over the AI capex and its current momentum persist. In terms of the broader sector space, the bias is mixed. Utilities (+1.5%) top the sector pile, followed by Food, Beverages & Tobacco (+0.9%) and Telecoms (+1.1%). Outside of Tech (-2.9%), Basic Resources (-2.1%) and Banks (-1.2%) are the sector laggards. US equity futures are lower across the board, with underperformance in the NQ (-1.9%), given the tech weakness overnight. After-hours, Netflix (-9% pre-market) reported Q2 earnings that came broadly in-line with expectations, but investors were left disappointed by its earnings forecast, with Q3 EPS and Revenue guidance missing estimates. For SpaceX (-3.5% pre-market) , shares fell below its IPO price of USD 135 for the first time on Thursday after the launch of Flight 13 was aborted.

Top European News

• EU Inflation Rate YoY Final (Jun) Y/Y 2.8% vs. Exp. 2.8% (Prev. 3.2%, Low. 2.8%, High. 2.9%).
• EU Inflation Rate MoM Final (Jun) M/M -0.1% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.1%, Low. -0.1%, High. -0.1%).
• EU Core Inflation Rate YoY Final (Jun) Y/Y 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.4% (Prev. 2.6%).

FX

• G10s are mixed against Buck with recent outperformers AUD and GBP underperforming against the Greenback, while Thursday’s CHF underperformance reverses.
• USD is modestly firmer today as it gains some haven demand as stocks (NQ -1.9%) slip as tech weakness remains a theme. A couple of factors are driving today, but to summarise, Nikkei 225 was the target for selling amid the KOSPI closure overnight (due to domestic holiday), which saw stocks take a stronger negative lead from APAC and help the Buck. Aside from this, macro newsflow is light with crude a touch firmer as US and Iran continue to exchange strikes for the sixth day.
• GBP, which is set for a fourth week of gains, pulls back a touch from the 1.35 level as participants await the coronation of incoming PM Burnham. EUR/GBP also saw Sterling outperform for its fourth week, but like Cable, off recent lows as it reclaims 0.85. There remains a level of uncertainty around the incoming PM, with none of his cabinet officials confirmed as of yet, and many policies still unknown. ING expects a return to 0.870 in EUR/GBP by late summer.
• JPY is flat against the Buck despite c. 30pips of downside seen this morning. Japanese PM Takaichi said the govt. would pursue steps that encourage investment in Japanese financial assets, including by households and pension funds like the GPIF. To remind, last week FinMin Katayama said she would pursue steps to promote investment in Japanese assets by GPIF and others. There was some scepticism around this remark as it would be a textbook tactic to encourage domestic investment and passively limit outflows - Katayama is not in a position to direct changes, it would be under the jurisdiction of the Labour Ministry. We await further updates with a timeline around any potential GPIF changes, for now, JPY flat against the Buck near 162.50 despite earlier gains.

Fixed Income

• Fixed income benchmarks are firmer across the board, despite a clear driver; however, debt could be finding some haven flows as equities print deep selloffs globally.
• Gilts (+26 ticks) outperform, with Andy Burnham to begin his Labour premiership on Monday. Focus will be on who Burnham chooses as Chancellor (widely expected to be Home Secretary Mahmood) and what his plans are for the government. Reporting by Bloomberg stated that he has asked the civil service to prepare plans for new North Sea oil and gas drilling and public control of Thames Water. Regarding the Chancellor position, Mahmood is likely to be named Chancellor, but this has already drawn some backlash. Rachel Maskell told the Times that appointing Mahmood would be a mistake and that Miliband “shines well above Shabana.” Despite this, gilts trade at the top end of its 87.15-87.59 range.
• JGBs (+36 ticks) have steadily bid higher in early European trade, after Japanese PM Takaichi said the government will pursue steps that encourage investment in Japanese financial assets, including by households and pension funds. She even specifically named GPIF. Focus on pension fund investments in domestic assets started after FinMin Katayama said she wanted to encourage the GPIF to invest more. Takaichi's more recent comments would likely strengthen the view that the government is keen to have the GPIF consider altering its asset allocations.
• USTs (+8 ticks) trend higher despite a lack of events on the calendar. Fed's Jefferson gave remarks overnight, stating that it would be appropriate to reconsider the stance in the scenario in which inflation does not start cooling.

Commodities

• The US continued to strike Iran for a sixth consecutive night. Following this, Iran claimed power facilities, bridges and civilian infrastructure were struck. And in response, Iran launched its own strikes on Gulf neighbours.
• More pertinently was a severe warning from the Iranian Army Spokesman. He stated that if the US strike the infrastructure of Iran, all infrastructure in the region will be a legitimate target; He added that “either all countries in the region can export oil or no one can”.
• Other news in the region, the UKMTO received 2 reports. More recently, there was a report 65NM south of Al Mukalia, in which unauthorised personnel boarded the vessel. Sources say armed assailants boarded a chemical products tanker Asana in the Gulf of Aden, which is potentially related.
• Crude benchmarks spent the overnight session in the green, amidst the aforementioned developments. Brent Sep’26 (+1.7%) holds towards the top end of a USD 83.71-85.88/bbl range.
• Spot gold (+0.5%) is incrementally firmer this morning, though still remains just shy of the USD 4k/oz mark, after dipping below that mark in the prior session. Recent pressure has been driven by the ongoing inflationary woes surrounding the latest US-Iran escalation. Nonetheless, some analysts remain confident in the structural drivers for the yellow metal, namely, continued central bank purchases. Elsewhere, base metals are broadly in the red this morning – hampered by the risk tone. 3M LME Copper trades within a USD 13,429-13,563/t range.
• BP (BP/LN) and ConocoPhillips (COP) reportedly set to announce billions of dollars of new investments in Iraq on Friday, CNBC reports; sources said the figure may be in the tens of billions.
• Chinese LNG importers are exploring ways to reduce reliance on Qatar, Bloomberg reported.
• China State Planner NDRC to cut retail fuel prices in the current bi-monthly cycle, effective July 18th. To cut gasoline prices by CNY 300/t, and diesel by CNY 290/t.
• TotalEnergies (TTE FP) cut output at Port Arthur refinery as the reformer is undergoing repairs.

Central Banks

• Fed's Jefferson (voter) said the current policy stance should support the job market and allow inflation to resume its decline towards 2% as tariff effects and energy prices pass through. Jefferson said in a scenario where inflation does not start cooling, it could be appropriate to reconsider the stance and ensure they deliver price stability, while he added that current policy is well-positioned to respond based on incoming data, the evolving outlook and balance of risks, and he is firmly committed to returning inflation to the 2% target, consistent with the dual mandate.
• BoJ reportedly sees little need for consecutive rate rises, may reconsider its assessment of economic risks, according to Bloomberg citing sources. It is also likely to raise its growth forecast for this year from its current 0.5%. Officials may revise their downside-risk assessment as AI-related demand supports exports, profits and incomes, while faster cost pass-through keeps underlying inflation risks elevated above the 2% target.

Geopolitics

• US President Trump said they will see the fruits of labour in Iran shortly.
• US CENTCOM said forces conducted a new wave of strikes against Iran for the sixth consecutive night to further degrade Iranian military capabilities. The US launched a missile attack on Iranshahr airport, targeted a railway station in Bandar Abbas and struck five bridges in southern Iran. It was also reported that explosions were heard in Ahvaz, Chabahar and Bushehr, with missiles hitting air and naval bases in Bushehr.
• US CENTCOM announced Marines conducted an inspection aboard M/T Wen Yao in the Gulf of Oman on July 16th, while it was separately reported that only three ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz in the last 24 hours, according to marine traffic data cited by Al Jazeera.
• Iran targeted US radars in Kuwait with a drone strike, and explosions were reported at the US Navy's Fifth Fleet Naval Base in Bahrain, while blasts were heard at a US airbase in Qatar and in Erbil, Iraq.
• IRGC claimed to have launched an attack on a US command centre in Syria's Al-Tanf, while it warned no oil or gas will be exported through the Strait of Hormuz as long as US attacks continue.
• Iran has informed allies, including Hezbollah, that the waiting phase is about to end and ordered them to prepare for military scenarios, according to Kann news citing Lebanese press.
• Kuwait’s Defence Ministry said Iranian 'aggression' on Thursday targeted a number of vital facilities, resulting in material damage.
• Iranian armed forces senior spokesperson said they will never allow the US to interfere in the Strait of Hormuz, while he stated that the route Iran has determined in the Strait of Hormuz is safe, and any route outside it will be unsafe and ships will be damaged. The spokesperson also warned that if the US strike the infrastructure of Iran, all infrastructure in the region will be a legitimate target and stated that "Either all countries in the region can export oil or no one can".
• UKMTO has received a report of an incident 19 nautical miles east of Khasab, Oman. Additionally, the UKMTO received another report of an incident 65NM south of Al Mukalia, Yemen, with the vessel boarded by unauthorised personnel. Following this, maritime sources said armed assailants boarded a chemical products tanker Asana in the Gulf of Aden, off the coast of southern Yemen.
• Lebanese sources said the US-Israeli-Lebanon meeting would likely be postponed to finalise technical arrangements, Sky News Arabia reported.
• Islamic Resistance of Iraq put a USD 10mln bounty on US President Trump.
• Naftogaz said a Russian drone attack suspended operations at a gas production facility in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: Jun Import Price Index MoM, est. -0.65%, prior 1.9%
• 8:30 am: Jun Housing Starts, est. 1310k, prior 1177k
• 8:30 am: Jun P Building Permits, est. 1403k, prior 1410k
• 9:15 am: Jun Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1%
• 9:15 am: Jun Capacity Utilization, est. 76.2%, prior 76.2%
• 10:00 am: Jul P U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 51, prior 49.5

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As we go to press this morning, global equities are continuing to slump, as fresh doubts about the AI trade have driven a pronounced selloff in tech stocks. Indeed, the S&P 500 fell -0.51% yesterday, and this morning futures are down another -0.78%. Moreover, there’s no sign of any letup this morning in Asia, with very sharp declines for the Nikkei (-4.81%), the CSI 300 (-2.45%), the Hang Seng (-1.98%) and the Shanghai Comp (-1.64%), whilst the KOSPI is closed for a public holiday. Indeed, that slide indicates the Nikkei is currently likely on course for its worst day since March, and also leaves the index on track for technical correction territory, having now shed over 12% since its peak less than a month ago.

There wasn’t a single catalyst behind the selloff, but we had TSMC’s earnings shortly after we went to press yesterday, and their share price is down -5.26% this morning after they said that capital expenditure would be higher than previously forecast. Meanwhile, Netflix’s earnings disappointed after the close last night, pushing their shares almost -9% lower in after-hours trading. And in the background, fears about rate hikes and more persistent inflation are still there, with Brent crude oil up another +1.06% this morning to $85.12/bbl. That would be its first close above $85/bbl in over a month, and that combination of concerns around tech and inflation has really put a dent in the more buoyant narrative after the soft US CPI report earlier this week.  

Before the slump accelerated overnight, US equities had already seen a rough session yesterday thanks to the fresh slide in chip stocks. In fact, the Philly semiconductor index (-4.29%) hit an 8-week low, having now shed -18.91% from its peak less than a month ago. So that now leaves it close to the -20% mark that would mark a technical start of a bear market, which is a big turnaround from Q2, when it posted its best quarterly performance since the index began in the early 1990s. The AI-related tech pullback wasn’t limited to chipmakers either, with a decline for the Mag-7 (-1.27%) led by a slide in Alphabet’s shares (-4.44%) after Bloomberg reported a months-long delay for its new Gemini 3.5 Pro AI model. So that tech decline dragged on the S&P 500 (-0.51%), which fell even as nearly three-quarters of its constituents advanced on the day.

That positive breadth in the US stock market was supported by the latest batch of US data, which suggested that the economy was still in decent shape. Most notably, the weekly initial jobless claims were down to 208k in the week ending July 11 (vs. 217k expected), which was their lowest in two months. So that reassured investors that the labour market was holding up into Q3. Meanwhile, retail sales grew by +0.2% in June as expected, and there was an upward revision of a tenth to the May figures. So collectively, that added to the picture of ongoing data resilience, and we also saw the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q2 move up as well, now showing an annualised rate of +1.7% (vs. +1.3% before).

In terms of the latest in the Middle East, oil prices oscillated back and forth through the day, as strikes between the US and Iran continued. But this morning they’re currently slightly higher at $85.12/bbl, which would be their first close above $85/bbl in over a month if sustained. In terms of the latest, the US military said overnight that they’ve completed another wave of strikes on Iran, whilst Iran’s Press TV said they targeted US military sites in Kuwait. Otherwise, there was also a Reuters report yesterday that Iran had asked its Houthi allies in Yemen to be ready to close the Red Sea oil route if the US struck Iran’s power network, which raised fears about further supply-chain disruption.
This backdrop saw the probability of a Fed hike by September inch up from 55% to 57%, whilst the number of hikes priced by December was up +1.1bps on the day to 27bps. In turn, Treasury yields edged higher as well, with the 2yr yield (+0.6bps) up to 4.14%, whilst the 10yr yield (+0.5bps) stood at 4.55%. Those moves came as Fed speakers highlighted the potential for rate hikes. For instance, Dallas Fed President Logan (voter) said that “modestly higher interest rates would better balance the outlook and risks” as the path towards a disinflation scenario was for now “more a hope than a likelihood”. Meanwhile, Kansas City Fed President Schmid (non-voter) cautioned that even though the June inflation data was better than expected, inflation “is too hot and has been above target for too long”.  

Earlier on, European markets had mixed performance before the slump gathered pace later in the US session. On the bright side, the STOXX 600 (+0.16%) posted a third consecutive advance. But there was an uneven picture across the continent, with gains for the UK’s FTSE 100 (+0.54%) and Spain’s IBEX 35 (+0.15%), alongside losses for the German DAX (-0.34%) and France’s CAC 40 (-0.05%). For sovereign bonds, there were more consistent losses, with 10yr bund yields (+1.3bps) up to 3.13%, whilst 10yr OAT yields (+1.7bps) hit a post-2009 high of 3.93%. European bonds weren’t helped by a continued rise in European natural gas prices, with futures up another +0.79% to a 3-month high of €54.79/MWh.

Here in the UK, data showed GDP grew by a monthly +0.1% in May (vs. unch expected). So gilts underperformed following the data, with the 10yr yield (+2.8bps) rising as investors dialled up the chance of Bank of England rate hikes this year. Meanwhile, Andy Burnham is set to become leader of the governing Labour Party today, having been the only candidate nominated in the contest. He’s then set to become Prime Minister on Monday, after incumbent PM Keir Starmer formally resigns.

Finally, yesterday saw a notable milestone for gold (-2.07%), which fell back below $4,000 to close at its lowest level of 2026 so far at $3,976/oz. That’s a far cry from how it began the year, as January saw gold’s best monthly performance since 1999. But it’s now down over -7% since the year began, and over -25% from its late-January peak.  

Looking at the day ahead, US data releases include industrial production, capacity utilization, housing starts and building permits for June, along with the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for July. In the Euro Area, there’s also the final CPI print for June. Otherwise, central bank speakers include Fed Vice Chair Jefferson and the ECB’s Cipollone.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 08:35

Live Cattle Futures Tumble To Seven-Month Low, But Bernstein Says Beef Prices Will Stay Elevated

Despite our view that beef prices will remain elevated this year amid the smallest US cattle herd size in more than 60 years and mounting concerns over New World screwworm detections in Texas, live cattle futures in Chicago have tumbled this month as speculative traders unwind bullish bets.

Chicago live cattle futures have dropped to their lowest point since December 2025, as speculative traders liquidate positions amid weakening cash trade and falling wholesale beef prices.

The commodities firm CIH Cattle Team pointed out on X that both speculative and commercial traders are reducing their long exposure: "Live Cattle OI in a major downtrend! Down 11k over the past month and 83k contracts year-over-year; OI lowest since 2022 for July."

Live Cattle OI in a major downtrend!
Down 11k over the past month and 83k contracts YoY
OI lowest since 2022 for July#cattle #beef #ag pic.twitter.com/bGT12q5L8h

— CIH Cattle Team (@CIHCattleTeam) July 15, 2026

Feeder Cattle Index -$3.55
CIH Est: $365.52; Previous: $369.07
2,963 head dropping off (15% of index); 1,979 head traded (11%) #ag #cattle #feedercattle pic.twitter.com/8uQtyXI9da

— CIH Cattle Team (@CIHCattleTeam) July 16, 2026

Analysts from Hightower Report noted that the "market is vulnerable to further losses" as the physical trade slows and funds continue to liquidate positions, adding that a strong cash trade had been driving the long bull market, but cash is now a liability.

Chris Lehner, a senior livestock analyst at ADM Investor Services, was quoted by Bloomberg as saying that the decline in cattle prices was mostly driven by spreads, with traders selling cattle positions and buying lean hog futures.

"Consumer beef demand has been strong, but indications of growing consumer headwinds could weigh on the sector going forward," University of Georgia Assistant Professor Will Secor wrote in a note for the Livestock Marketing Information Center.

Recent USDA data show that wholesale beef values have fallen to their lowest levels since late February. The national average retail price for ground beef remains sticky around $7 per pound.

Analysts at Bernstein spoke with industry experts this week and concluded that beef prices are likely to remain high for several reasons:

We left the conversation with greater conviction that beef prices will remain elevated for a while.

The experts emphasized how the current state of herd size, which has reached a 60-year low, is unlikely to expand given that (1) land has become more expensive and is being used by developers (due to population migration into Texas), making it hard for farmers to raise more cattle, (2) farmers are opting to sell heifers (given the current high spot prices) rather than raising them, as they fear that prices will eventually fall, making it economically sub-optimal to wait 2 years to increase the herd size through the eventual calves of that heifer. (3) recreational use of land has also become more profitable, with a buck sold at "30k a kill" vs "$500 per cattle".

Important to understand: When Will The Cattle Cycle Turn? BofA Has Answers For Beef Lovers

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 07:45

Private Credit: The New Junk Bond Market

Authored by Ed Dowd via Beyond the Narrative,

Private Credit: The New Junk Bond Market...Except It Lacks Transparency, Liquidity & Is About To Be Stress Tested

History

Private credit was born from the ashes of the Great Financial Crisis. In the aftermath of that debacle, regulators moved to limit the risks banks could take. Loans deemed too risky were no longer being originated by commercial banks. To fill that void, non-bank lenders stepped in, creating what is known as private debt or direct lending market. You may know these vehicles as Private credit funds, also referred to as business development companies (BDCs). These funds raised capital from pensions, endowments, insurance companies, and wealthy individuals.

Unlike junk bonds or corporate bonds, these loans are not publicly traded and are typically held to maturity. In fact Private credit has quietly taken a big chunk of market share from the traditional junk bond market. These private deals give borrowers speed, confidentiality, and customized terms they can't always get from public bonds, while investors get higher yields and perceived lower volatility. The public junk bond market has actually improved in average credit quality as the riskier companies moved into these opaque structures.

The funds have traditionally targeted middle-market companies with revenues between $10 million and $1 billion, though the strategy has recently expanded to larger firms and bigger deals, including those in AI. Last November Morgan Stanley estimated that of the $1.5 trillion in external financing needs for the projected AI datacenter buildout that as much as 50% could be funded by Private credit (hold that thought).

One notable drawback of private credit funds is their high degree of opacity also called a lack of transparency. These funds disclose limited information about their loans and mark their own books, which can potentially mask deterioration in the portfolio. Because of the illiquid nature of these assets and the lack of a public trading market, the investments are inherently illiquid and often include gating provisions should too many investors want their money back at the same time.

Growth

The industry started the way any small new industry does: by filling a niche need. The fee structure, while lower than that of private equity, remained extremely attractive to managers, with total effective fees often running from 3% to 4% of NAV. The pitch to investors was straightforward: higher yields than public bonds and lower reported volatility because there is no daily mark-to-market. The risks, of course, are illiquidity and higher default rates in a recession (hold that thought).

Bottom line: The fat fee structure attracted many firms to get into this business and the Wall Street sales machine was engaged, went into action and the money flowed into these firms.

The Last Two Years of Growth

The industry itself is not nefarious, but like all credit markets, it is prone to excesses at the end of a cycle. Growth in assets under management (AUM) over the last two years (2024 & 2025) has been estimated at 50% to 75%. The entire category is now estimated to stand between $2.5 trillion and $3 trillion in AUM. When you examine credit creation across the broader banking system over that same period, most of the incremental loan growth in the economy flowed to these non-bank institutions from commercial banks (See chart below).

Source: Phinance Technologies US Economy Outlook 2026

The key question investors should ask is: With this explosive growth in AUM and competition for loans in the industry, have the funds found enough creditworthy borrowers in an already high-risk category, or rather did the inflows chase incrementally "junkier" credits with looser loan covenants?

Trouble in Paradise

Starting in the fourth quarter of last year, several high-profile Private credit bankruptcies emerged, most notably First Brands and Tri-Color Auto. Questions about the structure of Private credit funds began to surface, particularly around opacity and illiquidity. This led to investor redemptions and the gating of several prominent funds in Q1, including those from BlackRock, Blackstone, Apollo, Cliffwater, Blue Owl, and others. The pressure continued into Q2, with redemption requests accelerating across these major platforms. The problem is not improving, rather it is getting worse.

Implications

Effectively, the Private credit markets are now shut down and at best stalled. They are in redemption mode which could ultimately lead to liquidation mode at subpar pricing. While some new loans may still be originated, the market as a whole has slowed dramatically. As noted previously, we saw that the marginal credit creation of the past two years in the US economy has come from an industry known for being opaque and illiquid...and that driver of credit is now in question. The critical questions are: how large are the losses, how long will this downturn in private credit last, and what will recovery rates look like? PIMCO (one of the largest fixed income investors) has recently stated that the credit default cycle has begun and that losses will be higher than expected, with clear implications for the broader economy.

To make matters worse the lack of transparency and public quotes make determining what is going on in these funds extremely difficult for the capital markets to assess other than the fact that we are seeing outflows from the sector. The investors have unanswered questions and are like mushrooms growing in the dark on manure.

Private credit woes may also have implications for the commercial banking system. I mentioned above that most of the credit creation from commercial banks in 2024 & 2025 was Private credit and Private equity. Private credit funds rely on bank credit lines (subscription lines, NAV facilities, revolvers) for liquidity and leverage. These have grown rapidly with contingent liquidity to Non-Depositary Financial Institutions (NDFIs) standing at approximately $2.3 trillion overall, with Private credit market share rising over the last few years. Simultaneous drawdowns from credit stress in Private credit could transmit shocks to bank balance sheets. I don't believe it's a systemic problem yet but it bears watching. At a minimum it would likely curtail commercial bank enthusiasm for overall credit creation in the economy (i.e. consumer loans, commercial & industrial loans and real estate loans).

Earlier I told you to hold two thoughts in your head. First that AI funding datacenter buildout was contingent on the Private credit market to fund 50% of the external financing, and secondly, the default rates in Private credit would be higher in a recession as advertised initially by the industry. Given that flows in the Private credit industry are going the wrong way, and the industry is effectively paused...I don't see how AI data center build out will be funded by Private credit in the near term, and secondly I believe the industry's recession default assumptions are about to be tested very soon and could be higher than expectations.

Conclusion

Credit is the lifeblood of economic activity, and recently a great deal of it has flowed through this new channel. Significant losses have yet to be fully recognized, and they will ultimately hit pension funds, insurers, asset managers, and wealthy individuals who hold these investments. The commercial banks also have exposure to this market and losses in this sector could lead to a broader credit contraction. And finally, AI financing could become prohibitively expensive and pause or dramatically slow the capital expenditure cycle, affecting what has now become about 45% of the S&P 500's market capitalization.

I believe the feedback loops are already underway and are likely to spread to the economy and eventually the equity markets.

P.S. If you are interested in a much deeper nitty gritty dive into Private credit markets and the risks check out the Unicus Investor on Substack: The Unicus Investor - Blackstone's BCRED: Earned $0.54. Paid $0.60. Cut to $0.54.

Disclosure: I have no financial relationship with Unicus...I just think they do good work.

"Be careful that you do not forget the Lord your God... Otherwise, when you eat and are satisfied, when you build fine houses and settle in them, and when your herds and flocks grow large and your silver and gold increase and all you have is multiplied, then your heart will become proud and you will forget the Lord your God..." Deuteronomy 8:11-14

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 07:20

Bromance Breaks Out Between "Man of Peace" Trump And Azerbaijani President

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev lavished praise on President Donald Trump's diplomacy, telling a group of journalists at the 4th Shusha Global Media Forum that the president achieved peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia in mere months, a historic feat that both Democrat and Republican administrations had failed to accomplish over nearly 30 years.

White House Photo by Daniel Torok

When asked by Breitbart News reporter Joshua Klein what distinguished Trump's approach, Aliyev said the difference was one of mindset for the willingness to treat an entrenched conflict as something to be settled rather than contained.

"Previous administrations spent nearly three decades pursuing policies that effectively froze the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict rather than resolving it," Aliyev said, noting that Trump "approached the conflict from an entirely different perspective."

The Azerbaijani president called Trump "a person who loves peace" who "sees peace as an opportunity."

"Trump and his team understood Azerbaijan's concerns, worked to persuade Armenia that peace served both countries' interests and ultimately created such a framework that peace became possible," the leader added.

Those negotiations culminated at the White House last August, when Trump brought together Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

The two leaders signed a Joint Declaration while their foreign ministers initiated a comprehensive peace agreement. The accord created a joint U.S.-Azerbaijani working group charged with carrying out its provisions within six months.

"For the first time in my experience, American officials kept their word so strictly," the Azerbaijani President said.

Aliyev said the deal opened the door to something larger, a Strategic Partnership Declaration between Washington and Baku, and described the relationship between the two nations as having reached "unprecedented" heights.

"This is amazing, this is unbelievable," he said. "This is something which we could only dream about."

Trump, rarely one to pass up praise, shared the Breitbart News article on Aliyev's remarks, prompting the Azerbaijani leader to heap on still more.

Mr. President (@realDonaldTrump), Thank you for sharing my remarks from the Shusha Global Media Forum, where I described you as a “Man of Peace,” citing Breitbart. With less than a month remaining until the first anniversary of the historic Washington Summit, I would like to… pic.twitter.com/02Lcs2lPKk

— Ilham Aliyev (@presidentaz) July 16, 2026

"Mr. President, Thank you for sharing my remarks from the Shusha Global Media Forum, where I described you as a "Man of Peace," citing Breitbart," Aliyev wrote on X. "With less than a month remaining until the first anniversary of the historic Washington Summit, I would like to once again express my sincere appreciation for your indispensable role in advancing lasting peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Your leadership has made a historic contribution to bringing our region closer to peace, stability, and prosperity."

"You truly are a Man of Peace," he concluded.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 06:55

Why 'Big Pharma' Will Never Make A Cheap Anti-Aging Drug

Authored by Ross Pomeroy via RealClearScience,

For years, scientists have hypothesized that safe, cheap, generic drugs like metformin and rapamycin could slow aging, based on promising findings in animal models. But despite the evidenced hope, little has been done to see if these drugs actually slow aging in humans. There have been no rigorous clinical trials exploring whether metformin or rapamycin prolong life and and boost health.

How is it possible that metformin and rapamycin, long used to respectively treat diabetes and prevent organ transplant rejection, have had their anti-aging potential ignored for so long? To conspiracy-minded critics of 'Big Pharma', the answer is obvious: there's no money in it. In this case, they seem to be correct. Speaking at the 12th Aging Research and Drug Discovery (ARDD) meeting convened at the University of Copenhagen last summer, industry leaders conceded the point.

"Repurposing cheap, off-patent drugs like metformin fails mathematically. Phase 3 clinical trials cost hundreds of millions of dollars. Companies cannot recover this money without a patent monopoly. Therefore, the industry tests new, patented drugs for specific diseases."

Rapamycin costs between $40 and $150 per month out of pocket. Metformin is even cheaper, between $4 and $20 per month. To pharmaceutical companies, this meager revenue simply doesn't justify an expensive clinical trial to treat a nebulous medical condition like "aging," which insurers don't even consider reimbursable. To put it bluntly, treating aging with generic drugs may be economical and worthwhile for humans and society as a whole, but it isn't commercially viable for pharmaceutical companies.

The industry leaders speaking at ARDD explained a strategy that makes more financial sense.

"Industry tests new, patented drugs for specific diseases. During these trials, researchers simultaneously measure aging biomarkers like epigenetic clocks. This secondary strategy generates the hard numbers of regulators demand. The goal is to force regulators to classify aging as a reimbursable medical condition. This mirrors how objective data transformed obesity from a lifestyle choice into a treated disease."

So it's possible that what recently happened with obesity and GLP-1s will one day happen with aging.

In the meantime, independent institutions are trying to launch efforts to explore metformin and rapamycin's anti-aging potential in humans. The American Federation for Aging Research has - for a decade now - sought "visionary donors" to begin their Targeting Aging with Metformin (TAME) Trial, a six-year study testing whether metformin can delay development or progression of age-related chronic diseases in 3,000 adults aged 65-79. Earlier this year, scientists at The University of Texas at San Antonio secured funding from the National Institute on Aging to carry out a including a "randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trial involving approximately 84 older adults who will receive either daily rapamycin, intermittent dosing or a placebo" for six months, while monitoring the treatment's effects.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 06:30

"One Step Closer To Extradition": Cox Media Heir Faces Reckoning Over Funding Marxist Revolution

Sovereign Media, a far-left media outlet funded by the Babochki Collective, a nonprofit run by Jim "Fergie" Chambers, the communist centi-millionaire and heir to the Cox Media fortune, reports that Fergie, who was arrested in Ibiza last week at the request of the US Justice Department, "has been transferred to a maximum-security facility in Madrid."

"BREAKING: James "Fergie" Chambers has been transferred to a maximum security facility in Madrid - one step closer to extradition to the US," Sovereign Media wrote on X earlier Thursday.

BREAKING: James “Fergie” Chambers has been transferred to a maximum security facility in Madrid - one step closer to extradition to the US.

Chambers faces dubious charges by Trump’s Department of Justice. Federal charges of “international money laundering… with the intent to… pic.twitter.com/W1E8CNDevy

— Sovereign Media (@sov_media) July 16, 2026

Chambers was arrested last week and is awaiting extradition on federal charges linked to "international money laundering… with the intent to provide material support and resources to foreign terrorist organizations."

The indictment alleges that Chambers transferred funds from U.S. banks to accounts in Tunisia with the intent to support foreign terrorist organizations.

Chambers is the founder of the Babochki Collective and a major backer of Stop Cop City, Palestine Action U.S. (later renamed Unity of Fields), and related legal defense efforts. He allegedly funded bail, legal fees, and direct-action campaigns targeting police training projects and Israeli-linked defense firms, while also building networks with far-left activists.

City Journal's Stu Smith wrote in a recent report, "Chambers is one of the main funders of America's radical Left. His money has flowed to a host of projects in the "anti-imperialism" organizing space," adding, "Chambers claims that he and Singham are effectively the two primary financiers of the US radical left." Despite this, the two have apparently been at loggerheads—a conflict that has now gone public."

Chambers' arrest came ahead of today's meeting in Washington, where Secretary of State Marco Rubio, White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent addressed delegations from 65 countries about the action phase against Marxist groups seeking revolution across the West.

Rubio said, "In the United States, the share of left-wing terrorist attacks and plots has risen to levels not seen in DECADES. In Germany, far-left violence has jumped by more than 40% in just the last year alone."

🚨 JUST IN: Marco Rubio is throwing Democrats into a frenzy by dropping this truth nuke that terrorism is COMING FROM THE LEFT

"In all-out assault on our immigration officers, sniper attacks, explosives, armed ambushes, a transgender shooter opening fire on Catholic elementary… pic.twitter.com/jENXMAqe1U

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) July 16, 2026

Rubio added that Antifa is being directly aided by Iran and Cuba through a massive international network that seeks to attack the West with terrorism and propaganda.

Marco Rubio says Antifa is being directly aided by Iran and Cuba through a massive international network that seeks to attack the West with terrorism and propaganda.

"They despise the West because the West is great." pic.twitter.com/20o7JSLdKY

— Shadow of Ezra (@ShadowofEzra) July 16, 2026

It appears the US government may be preparing to make an example of Fergie.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 05:45

Heavy Overnight Iranian Attack On Bahrain, Gulf Allies, After US Launched 6th Straight Night Of Strikes

Update(0950ET): Heavy Iranian strikes are being reported on Bahrain and possibly Qatar overnight, in a fluid situation. At the moment the ballistic missile attacks on Bahrain look the heaviest.

Below are some emerging unverified videos being widely shared of the alleged fresh retaliatory attacks from Iran...

In a statement shared on X, the Ministry of Defence said its armed forces intercepted a missile attack that had targeted Qatar.

Footage of a coalition PATRIOT SAM battery fighting off a major Iranian ballistic raid on Bahrain earlier tonight. pic.twitter.com/Tp6KEZyBjo

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) July 17, 2026

Footage captures a possible impact from an Iranian missile in Bahrain pic.twitter.com/QfGBGvxxqU

— Arya Yadegaar (@AryJeayBackup) July 16, 2026

Reports of missiles flying between both US and Iran, with heavy attacks reported on allied Arab states:

❗️NIGHT OF EXPLOSIONS ACROSS THE MIDDLE EAST — BLASTS REPORTED FROM JORDAN, IRAQ, BAHRAIN & QATAR

Comes in LATEST IRGC RETALIATION following US BOMBING 'URBAN INFRASTRUCTURE' IN IRAN pic.twitter.com/Agfy6MVO6t

— RT (@RT_com) July 17, 2026

*  *  *

Update(1520ET): The Pentagon has announced that a sixth night of airstrikes on Iran have commenced: "At 2 p.m. ET today, U.S. forces began conducting a new wave of strikes against Iran for the sixth consecutive night to further degrade Iranian military capabilities," US Central Command stated on X.

Some latest developments from the region on Iran's retaliation:

• Iranian strikes targeted a number of vital facilities in Kuwait, the Reuters news agency reports, citing the country’s defence ministry. The strikes resulted in material damage, it added.
• The US Embassy in Baghdad has advised US citizens in Iraq to be on alert following a drone attack on Erbil on Wednesday.
• Dubai has warned of “necessary measures” against any media publishing false news after Reuters reported sounds of explosions in the city center of the UAE’s financial hub.

Thursday's strikes appear to be focused further north in Iran, also after earlier reports of having forcibly turned back another tanker accused of seeking to bypass the US naval blockade.

So far amid what is approaching one week of renewed US air raids, Iranian officials say the attacks have killed more than 35 people and wounded over 300 others.

U.S. Air Force F-35A stealth fighter aircraft are refueled by a KC-135 Stratotanker while flying patrols over the Middle East. pic.twitter.com/KSbmYTH2LT

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) July 16, 2026

Ironically, Karoline Leavitt was gone a couple months for maternity leave and she just returned this afternoon to give pretty much the same Iran press briefing as before she left...

"Iran very much continues to talk to the United States of America and express that they want to make a deal with us because they are suffering devastating blows on behalf of our United States military," says @PressSec.

"In the Memorandum of Understanding that they signed, they… pic.twitter.com/bSGVkt4HCs

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) July 16, 2026

CNN reports, citing state media: "Three explosions have been heard in western Bandar Abbas, a major port city on the southern coast of the country, Iran’s state-run Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) reported Thursday evening local time."

*  *  *

Since the prior day's handover of American detainee Dena Karari back to the US, which President Trump said he "appreciated" as a rare "gesture of goodwill" from Iran, Washington's bombs over the Islamic Republic appear to have ceased or slowed, for now at least.

But that doesn't mean Iran's retaliatory missiles and drones on America's Gulf allies have halted. On Thursday, Kuwait has announced its air defenses continue to be active, confronting inbound assaults by "hostile drones".

Screengrab of IRGC video from Sepah News website on July 14, 2026, showing a missile being launched towards US targets in Bahrain & Kuwait.

"The General Staff of the Army notes that any explosion sounds heard are the result of air defense systems intercepting the hostile attacks," the Kuwaiti military said in a statement, blasting "the sinful Iranian aggression." It added: "Everyone is requested to adhere to the security and safety instructions issued by the competent authorities."

After five consecutive days of US attack waves, the Iranian military has yet to show signs of backing off its assertions of 'control' over the Strait of Hormuz, and its military has newly warned that the energy transit waterway is an "unbreakable red line" which it will enforce.

On Wednesday President Trump warned that if Iran doesn't come back to the negotiating table - while relinquishing control of Hormuz - that by next week strikes will expand to include civic and energy infrastructure, such as bridges.

Tehran has in turn counter-threatened to destroy "all infrastructure throughout the region" if Trump acts on this threat to attack Iran's vital infrastructure cites.

New: “Infrastructure for Infrastructure” - Iran’s Khatam Al-Anbiya Joint HQ Colonel Ibrahim Zolfaghari:

💢 NEW: “Infrastructure for Infrastructure”

Iran’s Khatam Al-Anbiya Joint HQ Colonel Ibrahim Zolfaghari:

🔹”Under no circumstances and in no way will we allow America, as a foreign and extra-regional country, to interfere in the Strait of Hormuz. This is Iran’s unimpeachable… https://t.co/5DscO4bJVh pic.twitter.com/iGQuEOE9nW

— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) July 16, 2026

There are already signs that Iran could be making good on this threat, with Reuters reporting that "Iraq briefly suspended oil ​loadings on Thursday before resuming them after a drone hit an oil ‌tanker at its Basra terminal, four Iraqi oil and security sources told Reuters."

However, no fire or damage resulted from the attack, with sources indicating it wasn't immediately clear who launched it (whether directly from the Iranians, or perhaps from Tehran-aligned Iraqi paramilitaries). Iraqi oil officials have downplayed the incident:

"It is not ⁠targeting Basra Oil Terminal. Its target is another place. Loading is at normal rates ​depending on the vessels' availability," Ali Nazar said.

An oil ministry spokesperson said loadings were ​ongoing at Iraq's southern ports and that the ministry is investigating the matter.

Iranian officials are meanwhile accusing Washington of more war crimes, specifically of carrying out a "barbaric attack" after a cancer hospital in Iran's southwest was forced to evacuate due to heavy airstrikes on the area.

“This barbaric attack – reminiscent of Israel's atrocities against healthcare facilities – caused severe suffering and anxiety upon the hospitalised children,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei posted on X. He stated there were "211 patients undergoing chemotherapy" which had to be evacuated Wednesday. No response has been immediately forthcoming by the US side.

To review of the events of the prior 24 hours:

• The US military says it launched another wave of strikes on Iran with Iranian media reporting explosions on Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas and Chabahar.
• The US military also says it “disabled” an oil tanker attempting to sail towards an Iranian port in the Strait of Hormuz by firing Hellfire missiles.
• Iran says it carried out retaliatory attacks targeting US assets in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan.

As for the situation of global shipping through the Strait, Kpler has recorded that merely 13 merchant ships transited the waterway on Wednesday, including eight that departed the Persian Gulf and five having entered.

Among those, only one - a bulk carrier entering the Gulf - used the US-approved route for safe passage, which hugs the Omani coast. Iran has been busy boasting that a huge array of companies and countries have sought to negotiate passage with Tehran on its terms of late.

This has settled into a waiting game amid dangerous escalatory tit-for-tat strikes, with each seeking to outlast in terms of absorbing pain.

COLUMN: Iran will win some short-term battles over the Strait of Hormuz, putting US President Trump over a barrel. But its ability to hold the global economy to ransom will fade as bypass pipelines proliferate. And Iranian officials know it.@Opinion https://t.co/uimMjVJ7bN

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) July 16, 2026

...with that in mind, a "final blow"?

As for the fact that the US military hit an 'unapproved' oil tanker Wednesday near Iran's main export terminal for the first time since the restart of the blockade on the Islamic Republic’s ports, CIC economists including Anne-Lise Cornen summarized where things stand for the White House in a note to clients...

"The challenge for Donald Trump will be to prevent a further rise in inflationary pressures and their detrimental effects on the economy, at a time when the situation was beginning to improve in June," they said.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 05:25

What's Really Going On? UK Government Announces Mass Stockpile Order, Wargames

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

The British government is preparing to tell ordinary people a blunt message: the state is not coming to save you. Households will be urged to stockpile long-life food, bottled water, essential medicines and even wind-up radios as part of a new national resilience campaign launching later this year.

At the same time, ministers have confirmed Operation Albiston Shadow - the largest home defence wargame exercise in decades - will take place in 2027, testing responses to 'hybrid' attacks alongside a major NATO drill.

Officials frame it all around Russian cyber threats, sabotage risks and the need to update the old Government War Book. Yet the timing and language raise a sharper question about what Whitehall is actually preparing for.

BREAKING: The UK will hold its largest home defence exercise in decades next year

Dubbed 'Operation Albiston Shadow' Sky's @haynesdeborah says it will play out over a number of days and will be testing the UK's responses to 'hybrid' threats under the threshold of conventional... pic.twitter.com/HZTqjNlVvl

— Sky News (@SkyNews) July 14, 2026

Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister Darren Jones stated "The government will do all it can and we are well prepared - but we can all play our part to keep ourselves and our loved ones safe. This campaign will help the public to take small but important steps to be prepared in case of emergencies and disruption - be that severe weather or a cyber-attack, which can impact access to power, water, or phone signal."

Armed Forces minister Louise Sandher-Jones was more explicit about the external threat: "Russia is not only a threat to NATO's eastern flank. It is a direct threat to the UK homeland and these exercises, together with important measures like updating our 'War Books', will help prepare us to meet that threat, as well as showing the British public how seriously we are taking it."

The Cabinet Office has updated the National Risk Register with new scenarios including cyber attacks on data, water and police systems, digital resilience failures modelled on the 2024 CrowdStrike outage, and foreign interference in democracy.

BREAKING: The UK will hold its largest home defence exercise in decades next year to better prepare the country for the possibility of war.
Dubbed "Operation Albiston Shadow", it will likely involve ministers as well as hundreds of officials from across government and the public...

— Deborah Haynes (@haynesdeborah) July 14, 2026

Operation Albiston Shadow will involve hundreds of officials, ministers and agencies role-playing a multi-day national crisis focused on hybrid attacks below the threshold of conventional war. It is designed to test current assumptions and ensure readiness "should the worst ever happen."

The government is also quietly reviving elements of the old War Book - the detailed Cold War-era plan that once covered everything from industrial mobilisation and food stockpiles to mass casualty management and the survival of government itself. That document was largely abandoned after the Cold War; updating it now signals a serious shift.

On the surface this looks like prudent planning against a hostile foreign power. Russia has been accused of cyber operations, espionage and probing NATO airspace. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has previously cited Western intelligence assessments that Russia could attack a NATO member as soon as 2030.

Yet the distance between the United Kingdom and any realistic Russian ground threat is vast, and the emphasis on household stockpiles, critical infrastructure protection and whole-of-society mobilisation sits uneasily with pure external-defence rhetoric.

This is where the deeper context becomes impossible to ignore. In 2025, Professor David Betz of King's College London, a specialist in modern war and unconventional conflict, publicly argued that the British government is preparing for the possibility of civil conflict at home while using the Russian threat as a politically convenient cover.

Speaking about the 2025 National Security Strategy - which stated "For the first time in many years, we have to actively prepare for the possibility of the UK homeland coming under direct threat" and prioritised protection of undersea cables, energy pipelines and logistics hubs - Betz observed: "there is growing apprehension about the security of Britain, the security of its infrastructure specifically, and about the potential for active conflict at home in a very direct manner, effecting people in a very direct manner."

He continued: "But that's not external in origin, that's internal, and that has to do with the way our society is now configured, it is highly fractured." Betz described a society marked by "Low trust, highly fractured, and highly politically factionalised which is leading us increasingly inevitably into civil conflict."

On the Russian narrative he was blunt: "The fact of the matter is there is a great distance between us and Russia... we are not militarily threatened in a direct way on the ground by any obvious external enemy, even Russia... one of those is not occupying the village green with Russian soldiers, that simply, frankly, is a rather bizarre assertion."

The real concern, he argued, is domestic: "What they're concerned about is domestic conflict, and they perfectly understand this, but that's completely politically toxic for them to say so publicly, hence the convenience of saying 'we need to develop... a citizen's militia for the protection of critical infrastructure'. To say that we're doing this against the potential of Russian attack, which is frankly a logically absurd proposition, but it is convenient as a pretext."

Betz has repeatedly warned that Europe faces a statistically significant chance of civil war in a major country within five years, with spillover risks, and that governments may only be able to prepare rather than prevent the deterioration. His advice to individuals has been practical: reduce exposure to big cities if possible.

Betz's analysis tracks the same societal fractures - low social trust, political factionalism, rapid demographic change and collapsing faith in institutions - that successive governments have accelerated through mass immigration policies while denying their consequences.

Critical infrastructure hardening, citizen resilience messaging and large-scale home defence exercises make perfect sense if planners believe the primary threat could come from within a polarised population rather than from Russian troops landing on British beaches.

Updating the War Book and running Operation Albiston Shadow allow the state to rehearse command, control and societal mobilisation without ever having to admit the internal drivers.

The pattern is consistent with earlier signals. Promises of a volunteer Home Defence Force to protect infrastructure appear to have been quietly shelved amid budget pressures, yet the broader shift toward treating the homeland as a potential battlespace continues.

Officials stress "whole of society" involvement. That language is not limited to foreign hybrid warfare; it is exactly the vocabulary used when states prepare for internal disorder.

None of this proves an imminent civil war. It does show a government that has spent years denying the reality of social breakdown now scrambling to prepare the public and its own machinery for disruption that could overwhelm normal emergency responses.

Telling people to stockpile food and water is an admission that the state cannot guarantee continuity of basic services. Framing the entire effort around Russia provides political cover while the underlying fractures - created by policy choices that prioritised open borders and demographic engineering over cohesion - continue to deepen.

The British public is being told to get ready. The only remaining question is what exactly they are being prepared for. The official answer is Russian hybrid threats. The deeper reading, supported by serious academic analysis of societal conflict, points to something far closer to home.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 05:00

Rare Wartime Protests Across Ukraine As Zelensky Moves To Oust Defense Chief

Rare wartime protests have broken out in Ukraine in the wake of President Zelensky sacking his popular Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov - which is reportedly in process but not finalized yet.

The 35-year old defense chief was only six months into his tenure, and is widely hailed as a reformist innovator who has turned the tide of war, having overseen a strategy of punishing wave after wave of devastating drones on Russian energy infrastructure.

via Associated Press

The NY Times on Thursday said that "thousands of people took to the streets of cities across Ukraine on Thursday to protest" his dismissal. 

This marks only the second time of the war that protests of this size have broken out in the capital and other cities, related to deeply unpopular moves and policies of President Zelensky:

The demonstrations were only the second large street protests in Ukraine during more than four years of war. Rallies also took place last year against a move by President Volodymyr Zelensky to neuter anticorruption agencies.

On Thursday, protesters poured into a square in central Kyiv, the capital. They turned out in Odesa, in the south, and in Lviv, in the west. In the frontline city of Kharkiv, in the northeast, more than 300 protesters with cardboard signs crowded sidewalks, chanting “Shame, shame, shame!” Their numbers grew as the morning wore on.

Ukrainians started venting their anger on social media as soon as Fedorov's impending dismissal was announced via Ukrainian national media.

Following the dismissal of Ukrainian Defense Minister Fedorov, protests have erupted in Kyiv, Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/LP9BQadzNG

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) July 16, 2026

Some of the main protest organizers are actually veterans of the current war with Russia, as one European publication details:

Dmytro Koziatynskyi, a war veteran who was a leading organizer of last summer's mass protests in support of NABU and SAPO, posted on social media ”The defence minister is being removed in the middle of effective – finally effective! – reforms, replaced by someone under whom any hope of reform can be forgotten," referring to Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko, who is poised to replace Fedorov.

“I call on all caring people to come out tomorrow at 9:01 a.m. to Franko Square and show the president that we are against constant reshuffles in the government and replacing effective ministers with convenient opportunists.”

“We will never defeat Russia as long as the same total stagnation and corruption rule our army and our ministries,” Koziatynskyi wrote.

Chief Foreign-Affairs Correspondent of the WSJ, Yaroslav Trofimov, has pointed out that "Many Ukrainians (and not just Ukrainians) see this as Zelensky putting petty politics ahead of winning the war."

If the protests grow rapidly, it could cause Zelensky's external supporters to sour on him...

Important to note that Zelensky has not yet officially announced that he is replacing Fedorov. He still has room to reconsider before he potentially faces a new Maidan tomorrow. https://t.co/x57ig1ezki

— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) July 15, 2026

Fedorov's firing and replacement is not yet fully a done deal. However, Zelensky has been open about a government shake-up and reset, but the motives behind it are unclear and have unleashed confusion across Ukrainian society.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 04:15