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"Don't Let China Win": President Trump Presses Senate On CLARITY Act In Final Stretch

Authored by Micah Zimmerman via BitcoinMagazine.com,

The Senate returns to Washington on July 13, with the clock running down on the most consequential piece of crypto legislation in years. Lawmakers now have roughly four weeks to schedule, debate, and pass the CLARITY Act before the August recess. 

President Trump weighed in directly on Monday, posting on Truth Social that “in honor of Senator Lindsey Graham, a big supporter, the U.S. Senate should pass the Clarity Act” and warning that China and other countries “would like to take complete and total control of this major financial ‘happening,'” as well as A.I. 

White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt amplified the urgency, noting the critical week coincides with the one-year anniversary of the GENIUS Act and cautioning, “We cannot afford to delay any longer.”

This is a window many policy watchers see as the last realistic chance to enact comprehensive digital-asset market structure legislation this Congress.

The CLARITY Act would draw a firm regulatory line between the SEC and the CFTC, granting the commodities regulator exclusive jurisdiction over spot markets for “digital commodities” while leaving the SEC to oversee investment-contract assets. 

It cleared the House in July 2025 by a bipartisan 294–134 vote and advanced out of the Senate Banking Committee in May by a 15-9 margin, with two Democrats joining all Republicans. 

Those committee votes, however, came with warnings that floor support was not guaranteed.

This week’s milestone is the release of updated text merging the Senate Banking and Agriculture Committee versions, the clearest signal yet of what survived negotiations and what remains unsettled. 

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 President Trump says "The U.S. Senate should pass the Clarity Act." 🚀 pic.twitter.com/9Y7VxKZ3ck

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) July 13, 2026 Clarity Act issues remain 

The bill missed the July 4 signing ceremony that White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt had targeted, and while meetings ran through the recess, the thorniest issues remain unresolved, according to Crypto in America. Getting to 60 votes may prove harder than getting this far, and with the Republican conference shrinking, Democratic buy-in matters more than ever.

Chief among them is the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act, folded into the CLARITY Act as Section 604, which would shield non-custodial software developers from being treated as money transmitters. 

Law enforcement groups argue the language, as written, would hamper investigations into on-chain crime, and Democratic support may hinge on revisions.

An ethics standoff

The more explosive fight is over ethics. Negotiators have yet to reach a CLARITY Act deal with the White House on guardrails around conflicts of interest tied to President Trump’s crypto ventures, after disclosures showed he earned more than $1 billion from crypto-related businesses last year. 

House members have pressed the Senate to act while addressing those concerns, and a coalition of more than 200 companies has urged leadership to bring the bill to the floor. The coalition argued that the bill would establish a clear federal framework for digital assets and help keep innovation in the U.S.

Complicating the math, the death of Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and the continued absence of Mitch McConnell (R-KY) leave Republicans with almost no room for error in reaching 60 votes.

Sentiment is split. Solana Policy Institute President Kristin Smith says momentum is building and a floor vote before recess remains achievable, echoing CFTC leadership calling the bill “so close.” 

Others are wary: Galaxy Digital cut its passage odds to 50-50, citing the shrinking calendar and competing priorities like the NDAA. The firm said the legislation still faces procedural hurdles, unresolved ethics and developer-protection disputes, and a crowded Senate agenda that could delay consideration until September. Galaxy said the odds would improve if Senate leaders commit to a July vote. Odds were as high as 70% earlier this year.

The next four weeks may be CLARITY’s last chance in the 119th Congress.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 13:25

This Chevrolet Suburban Is The Secret Service's New Anti-Drone Weapon

For any indication of how seriously the federal government is taking the threat posed by one-way attack drones on the homeland, particularly against President Trump, look no further than the US Secret Service's new Chevrolet Suburban.

The Secret Service’s Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems Branch operates a specially equipped Chevrolet Suburban Premier, known as “Hindsight,” to detect and mitigate suicide drones and other loitering munitions during National Special Security Events and other high-profile security operations, according to the Instagram account "dmvfireandpolice."

The Suburban is outfitted with an Axis Communications IP camera, radio-frequency antennas, and additional counter-UAS technology, and it appears to have a mobile command station inside.

Dmvfireandpolice reported that the latest sighting of the new anti-drone command center on wheels was at Trump National Golf Club in Sterling, Virginia, as it was departing.

The vehicle is likely outfitted with jamming equipment, yet new details this week of fiber optic drones in Mexico have sparked alarm bells with security experts because these drones - very similar to Ukrainian and Russian ones - are unjammable, which only suggests kinetic solutions are needed.

The drone threat against President Trump materialized last month when far-left revolutionaries were foiled by federal agents in their alleged plot to use suicide drones to target "capitalists" at the UFC Freedom 250 event at the White House.

Trump made an odd statement on Friday: "I’ve been on their list for a long time. That’s what we’re dealing with." He then followed with: "The only thing is, I've left instructions—if anything happens—to just literally bomb them at levels that they've never seen before."

As we have detailed before, there are multiple ways to prepare for the asymmetric-warfare boom, as the US government and private firms race to harden the airspace above high-value assets, from airports and data centers to power grids, stadiums, and other critical infrastructure.

We may also be seeing the early stages of an M&A cycle across the drone and counter-UAS space. Ondas Holdings’ acquisition of DZYNE last week could be an early signal that larger defense and industrial technology firms are beginning to consolidate specialized firms before demand from the Department of War accelerates next year (read that report here).

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 13:00

Lindsey Graham's Eerie Last Words Revealed

The sudden death of Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) reverberated through the capital over the weekend, and some of the veteran interventionist's final remarks have lent the loss an unsettling poignancy.

Gage Skidmore/Flickr

In a telephone call with an unnamed individual, Mr. Graham, 71, said he intended to seek medical attention for feeling unwell, but only after his scheduled appearance Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press." On the same call, the senator joked about deferring his own mortality.

"I can't die now. I still need to do the Russia sanctions, get Iran sorted out and do Israeli-Saudi normalization," the senator said, according to Axios.

Graham's office announced his death early Sunday, hours after he returned from Ukraine, where he toured a secret military drone factory and held talks with Volodymyr Zelensky.

The senator also spoke Saturday evening with President Donald Trump about the Ukraine trip and the bipartisan Russia sanctions package he had been working to advance through Congress alongside Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), the New York Post reports.

Preliminary findings released by the District of Columbia medical examiner's office indicated Graham died from "Aortic Dissection due to Arteriosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease." The condition, a tear in the body's main artery, predominantly affects older men.

Trump said Monday he has recommended that the senator's sister serve as his temporary replacement in the Senate. In a social-media post, the president urged Gov. Henry McMaster (R) to appoint Darline Graham Nordone to fill the remainder of Graham's term, which expires in January.

McMaster is expected to announce his selection later Monday. A special election is scheduled for next month to choose a new Republican nominee in the general election for the seat.

H/T CAPITAL News

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 12:20

Non-Citizen Voting Arrests Continue To Mount, State Officials Put On Notice

Authored by Bryan Hyde via American Greatness,

The Trump Justice Department has secured roughly two dozen non-citizens voting arrests, prosecutions or convictions in the last few months, with another nearly 90 more cases under investigation.

Just the News reports that the wave of prosecutions represents a growing number of individuals charged in the last year with illegally voting in U.S. federal elections as foreigners.

Department of Justice (DOJ) officials say all 50 states were sent notices this month that election officials can and will be prosecuted too if they allow non-citizens to vote.

🚨 TRUMP DOJ DROPPING BOMBS ON ELECTION CHEATERS

Congressman Jim Jordon just unloaded: While the Save America Act stalls thanks to Senate RINOs hiding behind the filibuster, the Trump Justice Department is WARNING election officials in ALL 50 states, criminal prosecution if you… pic.twitter.com/H6fMxI8KJm

— Gunther Eagleman™ (@GuntherEagleman) July 11, 2026

Assistant Attorney General for Civil Rights Harmeet Dhillon told the Just the News, “This is not some idle threat.”

The letters state that state election officers face potential criminal penalties for “aiding and abetting” non-citizen voting. This includes knowingly retaining non-citizens on voting registration lists or assisting them with obtaining and casting ballots.

State officials were given a strict 5-day deadline by the DOJ to submit explanations of how they are complying with federal voter eligibility laws.

Dhillon drew a clear line on non-citizen voting, saying:

It isn’t just bad policy to let non-citizens vote in federal elections, it’s a crime. And this Department of Justice will intend to prosecute that crime if these election officials, having been informed that they are non-citizens on the voter rolls, knowingly allow those people to vote, enable their enrollment on the voter rolls, are passive in the face of this knowledge, etc.

Dhillon believes the numbers of foreigners illicitly voting in elections is probably higher but has been frustrated that U.S. Attorney offices across the country haven’t made illegal voting a larger priority until just recently.

Federal law requires voters to be American citizens to vote on the federal level, but some states and cities allow non-citizens to vote in local elections.

The DOJ push comes as President Donald Trump tries to persuade a hesitant U.S. Senate to pass the Save America Act that would impose citizenship and voter ID on all federal election voters.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 12:00

Strategy Adds $467 Million In Cash, No Bitcoin As StanChart Warns Saylor Needs Clarity In Pivot Message To Convince Investors

Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, raised fresh capital by selling MSTR shares through its at-the-market (ATM) offering last week while leaving its BTC treasury unchanged.

As CoinTelegraph's Helen Partz reports, Strategy sold 4.8 million shares of its Class A common stock for $466.7 million between July 6 and July 12, according to a Monday 8-K filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. 

The company did not buy or sell any Bitcoin during the period and reported holdings of 843,775 BTC at an average purchase price of $75,476 per BTC. 

The update comes as investors continue to watch how Strategy balances equity issuance, Bitcoin accumulation and its growing preferred stock offerings as it expands its BTC-focused corporate strategy.

Ahead of Monday's Nasdaq open, MSTR shares were trading down roughly 3%, to $91.80 apiece, according to Yahoo Finance. Bitcoin was trading at about $62,580, down more than 2% in the past 24 hours.

Cash buffer grows to $3 billion

Strategy increased its US dollar reserve to $3 billion as of July 12, up from $2.55 billion a week earlier. The reserve is used to fund dividend payments on its preferred stock and interest payments on its outstanding debt.

The reserve includes expected proceeds from MSTR shares sold through the company's ATM offering that had not yet settled as of the reporting date.

Source: SEC

Strategy has $23.8 billion of remaining capacity under its MSTR ATM offering, including capacity from a new $21 billion offering the company announced on March 23. The company said it may begin selling shares under the additional capacity once the existing offering is substantially depleted.

Last week, Strategy announced it sold 3,588 BTC for about $216 million to replenish its US dollar reserve and fund preferred stock dividend payments.

The transactions included the sale of 1,363 BTC at an average price of $59,256 between June 29 and June 30, followed by another 2,225 BTC at an average price of $60,773 between July 1 and July 5.

In the same June 29 8-K filing, Strategy also reported no BTC purchases, while disclosing the sale of 12.7 million MSTR shares through its ATM offering, generating $1.15 billion in net proceeds.

STRC moves to twice-monthly dividend schedule

Strategy is boosting its USD reserve as it readies its first semi-monthly dividend payment to its STRC preferred stock holders on Wednesday.

Under a new schedule announced on June 8, STRC will use record dates on the 15th and the last day of each month, with payments made on the following record date.

The first semi-monthly record date was June 30, 2026, with the first payment date scheduled for July 15.

Saylor

Additionally, CoinTelegraph's Robert Lakin notes that Strategy co-founder and chairman Michael Saylor again took to social media on Sunday to offer his latest signal to investors, even as one analyst said Saylor’s messaging needed more clarity to help Bitcoin regain its momentum.

“Orange dots tell only part of the story,” was Saylor’s message in a post that accompanied a chart from Saylortracker.com, similar to previous social media messages that have preceded news of Strategy's Bitcoin (BTC) purchases, typically announced the day after his posts.

Need clarity in BTC pivot message to convince investors: StanChart

Standard Charter’s global head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, said Strategy’s recent actions - and Saylor's manner of communicating them - “are muddying the waters for BTC near-term.”

“We think effective communication of MSTR’s new strategy (using BTC to back STRC) is key to reassuring markets that wholesale selling is unlikely; this should in turn support BTC prices,” Kendrick wrote in a note to clients on Friday.

“Indeed, if this signalling proves effective, it should remove the need for MSTR to actually sell any BTC by supporting STRC’s price,” he said.

StanChart sees inconsistencies in “never sell” approach

Kendrick said that Strategy’s long-held “never sell” approach limited what the company could with its industry-biggest digital asset treasury.

“The problem with the ‘never sell’ approach is that it limits what MSTR’s BTC holdings can do — or, perhaps more importantly, what they are perceived to be doing,” the StanChart analyst said.

“MSTR has started to shift its communication strategy on this in recent months. It has sold BTC twice and recently announced a BTC monetization program.”

Source: Standard Chartered Bank

Still, he sees Strategy’s “market signaling” as potentially improving soon and bringing more clarity to the outlook for Bitcoin, on which StanChart maintains its $100,000 year-end forecast.

Shares struggle from year low ahead of earnings report

Investors who bought into the Strategy narrative have not had an easy time in the past 12 months. The STRC preferred shares were formulated to hold a price of $100 apiece. Shareholders saw that par value fall to the wayside last month, to the lowest value since the preferred stock was introduced a year ago.

The common shares, trading under the MSTR ticker, have lost more than 70% of their value since July 2025, closing at $94.64 per share on Friday, down from a 52-week high of $457.22.

The company is slated to report second-quarter earnings on July 30, with analysts consensus of $4.28 per share, according to Yahoo Finance data. Earnings have fallen short of analyst forecasts in six of the last eight quarters, according to Fintel.io data, including a 33.76% negative surprise in the first quarter of 2026.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 11:20

Mamdani's Affordability Agenda Flops As NYC Rents Surge To Record Highs

New York City's socialist mayor, Zohran Mamdani, and his radical-left lieutenants in City Hall promised voters free bus rides, government-run grocery stores, cheap housing, and much more. Yet the dream of a left-wing utopia has not materialized. In fact, rents in the NYC metro area just hit a record high.

New data from The Corcoran Group, a major residential real estate brokerage founded in NYC, shows that rents in the metro area have climbed to a new record high.

Manhattan's median rent rose 8% from a year earlier to $5,295, while Brooklyn reached $4,350, also up 8%, according to the report. Manhattan's vacancy rate narrowed to 1.49%. In Queens, Rego Park posted particularly sharp increases, with one-bedroom rents up 12% and studio rents up more than 20%.

"Manhattan renters are chasing a shrinking pool of available apartments, and the result has become predictable — record rents. Available listings dropped 16% year-over-year in June, while the borough's median rent climbed to a new high of $5,295 . Leasing activity clocked in 7% below last year's pace due to the lack of inventory, causing competition to remain fierce. Additionally, June marked one year since implementation of the FARE Act, a milestone that may still be influencing pricing trends, particularly within the non-doorman market. Across the board, quality apartments are commanding a premium, and renters have little room to negotiate," Corcoran COO Gary Malin wrote in the report.

Malin continued, "Brooklyn's rental market is also rewriting the record books. Median rent jumped 8% year-over-year to an all-time high of $4,350 and apartments spent 30% fewer days on the market. This steep annual decline underscores how tight the market has become, with flat inventory and strong demand strong causing available units to rent far faster than a year ago. While lease signings were lower on an annual basis, activity picked up from May as renters moved quickly to secure apartments ahead of the busiest stretch of the summer season. Throughout the borough, competition."

City Comptroller Mark Levine commented on the new report, saying, "NYC's housing affordability crisis is at DEFCON 1. We need to push harder on every front to address our housing shortage."

"Update zoning, invest more City $ in affordable units, lower the time & cost City bureaucracy imposes on construction, get 1000s of vacant regulated units back on the market. We need bold action. This is a crisis," Levine added.

Rents in NYC have just hit an all-time high.

Median market rate in June…

Manhattan: $5,295/mo (+8.2% year-over-year)

Brooklyn: $4,350 (+8.1%)

NYC’s housing affordability crisis is at DefCon 1. We need to push harder on every front to address our housing shortage.

Update…

— Mark D. Levine (@MarkLevineNYC) July 12, 2026

Yet, as Libs of TikTok on X pointed out, "We don't have a housing shortage. We have an illegal alien invasion," adding, "Forty percent of NYC rentals are occupied by people born outside the US."

We don’t have a housing shortage. We have an illegal alien invasion https://t.co/4JW59k17Uu

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) July 13, 2026

Last week, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas published a new report showing that the "unprecedented boom in unauthorized immigration" sparked a nationwide housing demand shock in the presence of a relatively fixed short-run housing supply, accounting for 30% of home price growth and 20% of rent growth in the average local market during the boom period.

Mamdani and the Democratic Socialists of America bloc at City Hall will never acknowledge the illegal alien invasion has played a major role in tightening NYC's housing market. Instead, the response from far-left clowns is blaming "racist capitalism" and arguing that the existing system must be dismantled for one that actually has never worked anywhere in the world - look at Cuba.  

That leaves a fundamental policy contradiction: Mamdani and his socialist allies claim they can solve the affordability crisis by building more housing, yet that will take years. The easiest solution would be to cooperate with ICE or support deportations, which could reduce pressure on housing, schools, and other public services almost immediately. Good luck reconciling those positions.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 11:00

Obama Appointed Federal Judge Blocks Trump Admin's Anti-DEI Grant Conditions

Via American Greatness,

A federal judge in California has blocked the Trump administration’s push to attach anti-DEI strings to federal grant money. The court ruled this week that the executive branch overstepped its constitutional authority by imposing the conditions on a group of West Coast cities and counties.

Obama-nominated U.S. District Judge William Orrick granted a preliminary injunction Thursday barring the Departments of Homeland Security, Justice and the Interior from enforcing the contested conditions against 11 local governments, concluding in a 68-page order that the restrictions likely run afoul of both the separation-of-powers doctrine and the Administrative Procedure Act.

“What defendants seek to do likely violates the Constitution (separation of powers and Spending Clause) and the Administrative Procedures Act,” Orrick wrote.

The suit was filed by the cities of Fresno, Santa Clara, Redwood City, Santa Cruz, Stockton, Beaverton, Corvallis and Hillsboro, along with Los Angeles, San Diego and Santa Barbara counties, all of which argued the administration attached ideological requirements to grants Congress had already approved for public safety, disaster preparedness, policing, fire protection, water conservation and crime victim services.

Orrick sided with the localities, finding the new certification requirements “have nothing to do with or contradict the Congressional purpose” behind the underlying grant programs, and affirming that spending authority ultimately rests with Congress rather than the White House.

“Plaintiffs maintain that ‘[n]othing in the Constitution or federal statutes authorizes Defendants to impose the Challenged Conditions, or anything of the kind, on funds administered through congressional grant programs,'” Orrick wrote. “I agree.”

The conditions at issue required grant recipients to certify they were not running programs that promote diversity, equity and inclusion in violation of federal anti-discrimination law, along with separate provisions encouraging cooperation with federal immigration enforcement and compliance with related executive orders.

The administration has  said such conditions are a legitimate use of executive authority to ensure federal dollars aren’t used to fund discriminatory practices, and the Justice Department is expected to appeal Thursday’s ruling.

Orrick found that letting the conditions stand while the case proceeds would jeopardize funding for programs including anti-terrorism initiatives, disaster mitigation, flood protection, wildfire preparedness, law enforcement training, forensic science, and human trafficking and crime-victim services — writing that the disruption would “irreparably injure plaintiffs and their ability to provide critical services, as well as would threaten public safety.”

The preliminary injunction will remain in effect while the underlying lawsuit moves forward, leaving the administration’s broader anti-DEI funding strategy in legal limbo pending the expected appeal.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 10:40

British MP Exposes Secret Society Behind UK's Lurch Toward Socialism

Authored by Ben Sellers via Headline USA,

The stunning transformation of Great Britain in recent years - from a beacon of decorum and stiff upper lips to a cautionary tale of wokeness run amok - has been blamed on everything from socialism to satanism.

However, Rupert Lowe, a member of the British Parliament and founder of the organization Restore Britain, said the reality may be even more sinister.

In a recent appearance on Joe Rogan’s podcast, he said a shadowy group of elites known as the Fabian Society was deliberately trying to wreck the country.

“I don’t know if you’ve ever heard of the Fabian Society, but if you go and have a look at it, it was basically most of the Labour Party for many, many years,” Lowe said, referring to England’s leading left-wing party, the equivalent of U.S. Democrats.

The British people need to understand the powerful malign influence of the Fabian Society. pic.twitter.com/i3uY9sJfj8

— Rupert Lowe MP (@RupertLowe10) July 11, 2026

America’s Left may be facing a similar identity crisis as it tries to shake off the subversive influence of the Justice Democrats, Democrat Socialists of America and other fringe elements that are pushing neo-Marxist ideas.

But the British version has been around for nearly 150 years. The club, founded in 1884, was a direct reaction to the philosophy of Karl Marx (who died a year earlier in London).

Rather than forcing a collectivist government as Marx suggested, through class struggle — which generally led to uncomfortable outcomes for aristocrats — the society advocated for a socialist society to take root slowly and incrementally.

It was the brainchild of intellectuals including the man who first created “My Fair Lady” heroine Eliza Doolittle — playwright George Bernard Shaw. Science-fiction visionary H.G. Wells also counted himself a member.

“It’s the most extraordinary organization,” Lowe told Rogan. “Their emblem is a wolf in sheep’s clothing, as if that doesn’t tell you what they’re doing.”

Among the beliefs it endorsed was eugenics, the idea of breeding out unwanted attributes through various means, scientific and otherwise.

While the Nazis would go on to run with the idea — and ultimately help to effect its demise — the Fabian Society also was rumored to have inspired author George Orwell, whose dystopian 1984 (written in the late 1940s) was set exactly 100 years after the society’s founding.

The Fabian Society was created in 1884, & why George Orwells book is called 1984, as he figured the Fabian Society would have completed their mission within 100 years.

He was a bit off with the timing, but not with their evil agenda & what they are trying to achieve. pic.twitter.com/70LA5kyaHW

— NWO Dissident 1776. (@An89390Anglo) July 10, 2026

According to Lowe, not all of the society’s ideas have vanished entirely. Rather, some of them simply evolved into a modern political framework.

“Everyone should look at the Fabian Society, because that runs deep through the veins of Labour,” he said.

Writing for The Telegraph, former Fabian research director Stephen Pollard sought to dismantle the claims by attacking Lowe as a conspiracy theorist. However, his argument may have only helped to make the case for some that “basically what it wants to do is destroy all good and create a dependency culture.”

After defending ideas like eugenics as having been widely accepted in their time, Pollard insisted that the current society was more concerned with selling magazine subscriptions than world domination.

Many of its policy papers now deal with addressing the nation’s housing crisis.

“To take that and conclude that they are in fact part of a secret cabal dedicated to destroying Britain is not so much misguided as a sign that someone is truly away with the fairies,” he claimed.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 10:00

Key Events This Week: CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, Warsh Testifies, China Data, And Earnings Galore

As well as two epic World Cup semi-finals before that, and the start of the Open golf it’s a packed week ahead in markets, writes DB's Jim Reid.

The headline events are tomorrow’s US CPI and Wednesday’s US PPI, alongside Fed Chair Warsh’s first Humphrey–Hawkins testimony before the House Financial Services Committee (tomorrow) and the Senate Banking Committee (Wednesday). Elsewhere, key data includes China’s Q2 GDP and their monthly data dump (Wednesday) and the UK’s May monthly GDP (Thursday) as well as the announcement of a new leader of the ruling UK Labour Party as a special conference on Friday.

Let's run through the key details of the week ahead.

Front and centre is tomorrow’s US CPI report. DB economists expect lower gas prices to pull headline CPI down by -0.16% (vs. +0.47% in May), with core at +0.23% (vs. +0.21% previously). On a year-over-year basis, headline inflation is projected to fall from 4.25% to 3.81%, while core eases only marginally by 2bps to 2.83%.

Wednesday’s PPI will help complete the picture for core PCE. DB economists’ forecast is for a +0.23% increase (vs. +0.32% last month), which would see the year-over-year rate decline by 3bps to 3.38%. Within the details, the price index for portfolio management and investment advice will be worth watching, particularly given the boost from May’s equity rally.

Turning to the rest of the data calendar, Thursday’s June US retail sales and Friday’s industrial production will feed into estimates for Q2 real GDP growth. The preliminary University of Michigan survey (52.0 expected at DB vs. 49.5) on Friday will also be in focus, particularly inflation expectations, which have started to moderate from a high level after recent energy-driven increases.

After a relatively quiet spell for Fed speakers, this week brings a wave of communication ahead of the blackout period starting at the end of the week. Governor Waller begins today with a speech at NYABE. Chair Warsh follows with his testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday, while additional commentary comes after the CPI release (Governor Cook on Wednesday, and Vice Chair Jefferson, Dallas Fed’s Logan, and Kansas City Fed’s Schmid on Friday). This week effectively represents the final window for policymakers to signal their thinking ahead of the July FOMC meeting. Reid expects Warsh to broadly stick to recent messaging and avoid firm guidance on near-term policy moves. In contrast, Waller has historically been more explicit about their reaction function, so today’s speech will be closely scrutinised for clues on their preferred policy path—even though it arrives before the CPI data.

Staying with the global theme, central bank decisions from the Bank of Canada (Wednesday, no change expected) and the Bank of Korea (Thursday, DB forecast a +25bp hike) will also be in focus. In China, growth is expected to slow to 4.4% YoY in Q2 (from 5% in Q1), with June activity data released alongside. More detail is available in our Chinese economists’ full week-ahead note here. Finally, the UK reports May monthly GDP on Thursday, the day before Andy Burnham is expected to be confirmed as Labour Party leader, ahead of him officially taking the PM reins a week today and tapping into the England World Cup winning celebrations. Oh wait this must be another major hallucination.

And just to keep everyone busy, Q2 US earnings season kicks off tomorrow with results from five major US banks. Q1 marked the strongest non-recessionary rebound since the late 1990s, so the bar is high. ASML (Wednesday) and TSMC (Thursday) should also provide an early read on global tech trends. On earnings, tomorrow features JPMorgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Citigroup. Wednesday brings Morgan Stanley alongside ASML, Johnson & Johnson and BlackRock, offering a useful cross-sector snapshot. Thursday is especially busy, with TSMC, Netflix, General Electric and UnitedHealth reporting across tech, industrials and healthcare. By Friday, attention shifts to European names including Volvo, Sandvik and Saab, rounding out the global picture.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday July 13

• Data: US June federal budget balance, Germany May current account balance
• Central banks: Fed's Bowman and Waller speak, ECB's Schnabel speaks, BoE's Pill speaks

Tuesday July 14

• Data: US June CPI, NFIB small business optimism, May total net TIC flows, China June trade balance, Japan May capacity utilisation, Germany June wholesale price index
• Central banks: Fed Chair Warsh testimony before House Financial Services Committee, Fed's Barr, Cook, Bowman and Goolsbee speak, BoE's Bailey speaks
• Earnings: JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Citigroup

Wednesday July 15

• Data: US July Empire manufacturing index, June PPI, China Q2 GDP, June retail sales, industrial production, home prices, investment, Japan May core machine orders, Eurozone May industrial production, Italy May general government debt, Canada June existing home sales, May manufacturing sales
• Central banks: Bank of Canada decision, Fed Chair Warsh testimony before Senate Banking Committee, Fed’s Beige Book, Fed's Cook, Williams and Musalem speak, ECB's Nagel and Panetta speak
• Earnings: ASML, Johnson & Johnson, Morgan Stanley, Blackrock, Progressive, Bank of New York Mellon

Thursday July 16

• Data: US July NAHB housing market index, New York Fed services business activity, Philadelphia Fed business outlook, June retail sales, pending home sales, May business inventories, initial jobless claims, UK May monthly GDP, Italy May trade balance, Eurozone May trade balance
• Central banks: Fed's Logan and Schmid speak, Bank of Korea decision
• Earnings: TSMC, UnitedHealth, General Electric, Netflix, ABB, Abbott, Intuitive Surgical, Prologis, Atlas Copco, State Street, Publicis Groupe, Alcoa

Friday July 17

• Data: US June industrial production, import price index, export price index, housing starts, building permits, capacity utilisation, July University of Michigan survey, Italy May current account balance, ECB May current account, Canada May international securities transactions
• Central banks: Fed's Jefferson speaks, ECB's Cipollone speaks
• Earnings: Volvo, Sandvik, Saab

Looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the CPI report on Tuesday and the retail sales report on Thursday. There are several speaking engagements with Fed officials this week including Chairman Warsh's semiannual Congressional testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Monday, July 13 

• There are no major economic data releases scheduled. 
• 05:25 AM Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman speaks:  Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak at a Bank Policy Institute roundtable on modernizing financial regulation. Speech text and Q&A are expected. 
• 12:30 PM Fed Governor Waller speaks: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will speak at the New York Association of Business Economics. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On July 6, Waller said, "forward guidance can help speed up policy transmission, but if it is not flexible enough, it can hinder policy transmission." 

Tuesday, July 14 

• 08:30 AM CPI (MoM), June (GS -0.11%, consensus -0.1%, last +0.5%); Core CPI (MoM), June (GS +0.17%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); CPI (YoY), June (GS +3.87%, consensus +3.8%, last +4.2%); Core CPI (YoY), June (GS +2.76%, consensus +2.9%, last +2.9%): We estimate a 0.17% increase in June core CPI (month-over-month SA), which would lower the year-over-year rate by 0.1pp to 2.8% on a rounded basis. We expect soft autos inflation, reflecting a 0.5% decline in used car prices, a 0.1% decline in new car prices, and a 0.1% decline in the car insurance category. We forecast benign readings for the shelter categories—a 0.23% increase in the OER category and a 0.17% increase in the rent category—reflecting the continued slowdown in their underlying trend. We expect more moderate increases in the travel services categories (airfares: +1.5%; hotels: +0.3%), reflecting signals from alternative price data. We expect downward pressure from potential residual seasonality on the communication and new cars categories. We estimate a 0.11% decline in headline CPI—reflecting lower energy prices (-4.4%)—which would lower the year-over-year rate to +3.87% from +4.25%. Our forecast is consistent with a 0.24% monthly increase in the core PCE price index in June. We expect another large increase in the financial services component—reflecting the increase in equity prices in May, which flow through to the component with a lag—to contribute to the larger increase in core PCE prices than the core CPI.
• 10:00 AM Fed Chairman Warsh speaks: Fed Chairman Warsh will testify before the House Financial Services Committee on the Federal Reserve's Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report. In a panel discussion at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal, Warsh said that “inflation expectations have come down, and inflation risks have come down,” and that if AI causes the supply side to expand, “that has huge implications for monetary policy.”
• 12:40 PM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will speak on artificial intelligence at Federal Reserve Board Annual Financial Inclusion Conference. Speech text and Q&A are expected. 
• 01:00 PM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will participate in a fireside chat at the Kenosha Area Business Alliance. Q&A is expected. On June 25, Goolsbee said, “You have seen now a little bit of improvement on this services inflation, and I’ve been identifying that as something that we would want to see. But right now, between the two sides of the Fed’s mandate, the inflation side and the job market side, clearly the problem’s on the inflation side.”
• 01:30 PM Fed Governor Cook speaks: Fed Governor Lisa Cook will moderate a discussion on consumers, artificial intelligence, and financial inclusion at the Federal Reserve Board Annual Financial Inclusion Conference. Speech text and Q&A are expected. 
• 02:55 PM Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman speaks: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak on responsible innovation and financial inclusion via a pre-recorded video at the Federal Reserve Board Annual Financial Inclusion Conference. 

Wednesday, July 15 

• 08:30 AM Empire State manufacturing survey, July (consensus 9.3, last 5.7)
• 08:30 AM PPI final demand, June (GS +0.2%, consensus flat, last +1.1%); PPI ex-food and energy, June (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.4%); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, June (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.8%)
• 08:45 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will speak at an event organized by Partnership for New York City. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On July 9, Williams said, "The markets still expect oil prices to come down over the next six to 12 months. I think that's a pretty reasonable baseline. I still feel the fundamentals are that energy prices are likely to be around their peak and then to come down over time."
• 10:00 AM Fed Chairman Warsh speaks: Fed Chairman Warsh will testify before the Senate Banking Committee on the Federal Reserve's Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report. Speech text and Q&A are expected. 
• 01:00 PM Fed Governor Cook speaks: Fed Governor Lisa Cook will speak on the economic outlook at the Exchequer Club. Speech text and Q&A are expected. 
• 02:00 PM Fed releases Beige Book, July meeting period: The Fed’s Beige Book is a summary of regional economic anecdotes from the 12 Federal Reserve districts. The Beige Book for the June FOMC meeting period noted that economic activity increased at a slight to moderate pace for ten of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts and that there were reports of increased credit card usage, fewer retail visits, and stronger demand for necessities. In this month’s Beige Book, we will mainly look for anecdotes related to how consumers and firms are responding to the increase in energy prices from the conflict in the Middle East.
• 06:30 PM St. Louis Fed President Musalem (FOMC non-voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will deliver welcoming remarks in the 2026 Homer Jones Memorial Lecture at the St. Louis Fed. Speech text and Q&A are expected. 

Thursday, July 16 

• 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, July (GS 15.0, consensus 13.0, last 10.3)
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended July 10 (GS 220k, consensus 217k, last 215k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended July 3 (consensus 1,815k, last 1,814k)
• 08:30 AM Retail sales, June (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.9%); Retail sales ex-auto, June (GS -0.1%, consensus flat, last +0.8%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, June (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.5%); Core retail sales, June (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.7%): We estimate nominal core retail sales increased 0.4% in June (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials; month-over-month SA), reflecting a continued solid signal from alternative data. We estimate nominal headline retail sales increased 0.1%, reflecting lower gasoline prices.
• 10:00 AM Pending home sales, June (GS -0.5%, consensus flat, last +3.8%)
• 12:30 PM Dallas Fed President Logan (FOMC voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will speak in a conversation at the Houston branch of the Dallas Fed. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On June 6, Logan said, "I am increasingly concerned that higher interest rates could be necessary later this year to fully restore price stability and appropriately balance both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate. However, these decisions call for thorough analysis and debate."
• 01:25 PM Kansas City Fed President Schmid (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid will speak at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Forum. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On June 4, Schmid said, "The big question now is do we stay patient? Our inflation numbers have probably crept up into the three and a half percent range, which nobody likes. Is it temporary...or do we act? Do we say, okay, now it’s time to raise rates a quarter or two and see if we can’t tamp this thing down?"
• 07:00 PM Fed Vice Chair Jefferson speaks: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Jefferson will speak on the economy and monetary policy at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. Speech text and Q&A are expected. 

Friday, July 17 

• 08:30 AM Import price index, June (consensus -0.6%, last +1.9%); Export price index, June (consensus -0.4%, last +1.3%)
• 08:30 AM Housing starts, June (GS +12.5%, consensus +11.5%, last -15.4%)' Building permits, June (consensus -0.7%, last -0.9%) 
• 09:15 AM Industrial production, June (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.1%); Manufacturing production, June (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.1%, last flat);Capacity utilization, June (GS 76.2%, consensus 76.2%, last 76.2%): We estimate industrial production increased by 0.2% in June, reflecting strong auto and electricity production but weak natural gas production. We estimate capacity utilization was unchanged at 76.2%.
• 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, July preliminary (GS 51.5, consensus 51.0, last 49.5); University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, July preliminary (GS 3.3%, consensus 3.3%, last 3.3%)

Source: DB; Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 09:47

Saudi Jets Bomb Sanaa International Airport To Stop Iranian Passenger Plane From Landing

Renewed conflict continues to be potentially breaking out over Yemen, as on Monday Saudi Arabia struck the runway of the Houthi-controlled Sanaa International Airport, amid growing allegations that Iranian flights have increasingly made use of Yemen's airspace.

The Saud-backed Yemeni government which has long been locked in a civil war for the country's future has singled out the Houthi rebels for hosting Iranian flights, warning that its "patience has run out" and that it will respond to any airspace violations.

Illustrative prior image of an Iranian passenger plane operating at Sanaa airport, after over the years direct flights from Tehran have taken place over Saudi objections. via AP

"The Yemeni legitimate government, in cooperation with the regional and international community, and by all diplomatic and legal means, has tried to convince the Iranian regime and the Houthi coup militias in Sana'a to return to the armed forces and not to penetrate the Yemeni airspace with the Iranian planes," an official statement said.

Residents of the Houthi-controlled capital of Sanaa have reported seeing warplanes flying overhead, after Houthi-affiliated Al-Masirah channel indicated the strikes targeted the airport’s landing and takeoff runways.

"In an unjust aggression, the Saudi enemy carried out several airstrikes against Sanaa International Airport," Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree responded. "The Saudi aggression against Sanaa airport has ended the phase of de-escalation, and it must bear the consequences of its aggression," he added.

Another senior Houthi official, Hazem al-Assad, also threatened in follow-up remarks: "The Saudi regime will discover that it has dug its own grave."

The Iranian plane in question reportedly hasn't been hit or damaged, and was safely diverted to Yemen's Hodeidah International Airport.

The "internationally recognized" Yemeni government has long been propped up by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the US, after a lengthy half-decade long UAE/Saudi/US coalition air war failed to dislodge Houthi power. The pro-Saudi government operates out of Aden in southern Yemen, after the country's president fled there a decade ago.

Earlier this month there was another attempted Saudi warplane intercept of an Iranian civilian airliner, which was reportedly carrying Yemenis who had been stranded in Iran back to their home country.

The Houthis at the time of the prior incident said it was "breaking the Saudi-American siege on our people and expelling the occupiers."

As we featured previously, since 2015 Saudi Arabia has imposed a blockade on Yemen's land, sea, and air ports, severely restricting vital commercial and humanitarian imports, including fuel and food.

An Iranian Mahan Air plane landed in Houthi-controlled Hodeidah, marking a further escalation in tensions between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthis.

Iran and its allies hailed the landing as a symbolic victory over the Saudi-led blockade. pic.twitter.com/YSjcGMd4s2

— Clash Report (@clashreport) July 13, 2026

The blockade triggered what the UN called one of the most severe humanitarian crises globally, leading millions towards famine and drastically damaging healthcare and water systems.

The Houthis continue to be an important side-player related to the US-Iran war, given they've continually threatened to block the key Bab el Mandab Strait and return the war to the Red Sea region.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 08:55

Futures Slide, Oil Surges As Iran War Returns, Chip Stocks Tumble As Korea, SK Hynix Crash

US equity futures are lower on a combination of US/Iran escalation (which is feeding inflationary concerns) and a violent crash in South Korean stocks (which saw SK Hynix plunge by 15% overnight, the most on record, and unironically follows its record ADR launch in the US), which has put Semis and tech under renewed pressure. On the former, this drove oil prices higher overnight, but gains have been cut in half. On the latter, there is some anxiety around excessive capex spend (Goldman IG bond sales team warned over the weekend that demand for new hyperscaler supply has collapsed), but also some technical factors. As of 8:15am ET, S&P futs are down 0.4%, reversing their Friday gains which pushed the index just shy of a record; Nasdaq futures dropped 1% as Semis came for sale and Mag7 are mostly lower. Defensives are leading Cyclicals as the AI theme looks to be sold today but Fins / Energy are bid. Bond yields are up 1bp across the bulk of the curve with USD flat. Energy is leading commodity space those gains are materially off their highs with metals lower due to Precious metals; Ags are mostly lower. Today’s macro data is a non-event (June federal budget balance at 2pm ET) as the market awaits inflation / retail sales data as earnings kick off tomorrow. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed( Microsoft +0.3%, Alphabet +0.3%, Amazon +0.3%, Apple +0.2%, Meta -0.8%, Nvidia -1.2%, Tesla -0.6%)

• Agenus (AGEN) soars 46% after entering into a securities purchase agreement for a private placement of $85 million in upfront gross proceeds.
• American Express Co. (AXP) inches 1% higher after JPMorgan raised the recommendation on the company to overweight, saying the premium on the stock is warranted given the defensive nature of its revenues.
• Shopify (SHOP) is up 2% after Jefferies raised the stock to buy, saying second-quarter results will likely beat consensus.
• SK Hynix ADRs (SKHY) drop 8% after the stock fell by a record 15% in South Korean trading, underscoring growing investor concerns that its AI-fueled boom has become overstretched.
• TriCo Bancshares (TCBK) rises 7% after First Hawaiian agreed to buy the holding company for Tri Counties Bank. First Hawaiian (FHB) slips 6%.

In other corporate news, TSMC reported quarterly sales rose 36%, meeting high expectations and signaling global demand for AI hardware remains intact. Apple sued OpenAI for trade secret theft, accusing the company of a coordinated campaign to steal information about upcoming products. Stellantis’s shipments climbed 10% in the second quarter fueled by growth in North America, as the maker of Jeep sport utility vehicles and Ram pickup trucks pushes on with a turnaround plan. Elliott is said to have built a large stake in car-insurance software provider CCC Intelligent Solutions, which has been exploring a potential sale. Conmed is said to be exploring options including a potential sale amid takeover interest from private equity firms.

Worries that the artificial-intelligence boom has become overstretched sent chips stocks plunging in Seoul. SK Hynix, which has embodied the retail frenzy for AI and the popularity of leveraged ETFs that have fed wild swings in the stock, fell by the most on record in Seoul. Korea's Kospi also crashed, and suffered its 7th marketwide circuit breaker for 2026. Nasdaq 100 futures slid 1% as memory stocks such as Micron and Sandisk fell sharply in premarket trading. 

South Korea is increasingly shaping sentiment around the AI trade following the Kospi’s chip-driven outperformance this year. The rally has turned volatile in recent weeks as investors question whether AI hyperscalers’ spending will generate sufficiently strong returns to justify continued investment. Traders also pointed to the risk of a rotation into SK Hynix’s newly listed American depositary receipts, which surged on their debut on Friday. The ADR slid 7.9% in early trading on Monday.

An escalation in violence in the Middle East weighed further on sentiment as the US and Iran exchanged strikes into Monday and issued conflicting claims over whether the Strait of Hormuz was open. The flare-up sent Brent as much as 5% higher before paring gains to trade 3.4% higher at around $78.50 a barrel.

“The sharp selloff in Korean equities from the June peak is raising questions with some investors regarding the sustainability of the AI trade more broadly,” said Daniel Murray at EFG Asset Management. “With Middle East tensions rising again, this too has added to market consternation.”

Beyond this morning’s knee-jerk reaction to Middle East escalation, investors face a packed calendar of major catalysts this week, including key US inflation readings, Warsh’s first testimony as Fed chair, major bank earnings and AI updates from ASML and TSMC. The week ahead is likely to herald a ramp-up in earnings volatility “where crowded trades will get audited,” notes Mark Taylor, director of sales trading at Panmure Liberum, who expects reactions to results to be “simple and asymmetric: beats are the baseline; misses are punished without mercy.” 

With tech set to dominate this earnings round, Taylor underlines the risk of disappointment “when extreme positioning, leverage and elevated expectations collide with even the faintest hints that AI-driven memory pricing and capex may not compound at the same pace indefinitely.” Investors need to see that AI demand is broadening beyond a narrow customer base, he adds.

In politics, the death of Senate Judiciary Committee member Lindsey Graham leaves the panel without one of Trump’s staunchest allies as senators weigh Todd Blanche’s attorney general nomination. A California business tax credit cap aimed at saving $4 billion threatens to drive away film and television production, according to a letter signed by a bipartisan group of lawmakers.

 

European stocks are muted with telecommunications and energy shares the biggest outperformers, while the tech and construction sectors lag. Stoxx 600 little changed at 641.30 with 255 members down, 332 up, and 13 little changed. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

• UK homebuilders rise after The Times reported that Andy Burnham, the UK’s presumptive next prime minister, is to be presented with plans to revive the “Help to Buy” program, a potential boost to sales and margins for the sector, according to JPMorgan analysts
• Akzo Nobel shares rise as much as 4.8% after the chemicals firm rejected Nippon Paint’s a €7.5 billion offer for its decorative paints business and said it would continue to pursue an agreed merger with Axalta Coating Systems
• Gjensidige shares jump as much as 4.7%, the most since September, after the Norwegian insurance company reported net income for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate
• Fraport gains as much as 3% after BNP Paribas upgraded the airport services company to outperform from neutral, citing improving cash flow outlook as the company’s decade-long investment cycle comes to an end
• Pagegroup shares rise as much as 10% after the recruitment company reported much better figures than feared during the second quarter, as analysts flagged improving trends across its markets
• DocMorris shares gain as much as 12%, the most since April 16, after the Swiss pharma retailer is upgraded to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank, with analysts noting fading funding risks and upside to earnings
• Plus500 shares fall as much as 15%, the most in six years, as the trading platform operator delivers an outlook that met, but did not surpass, current market forecasts
• Kongsberg shares fall as much as 8.5% after the firm reported Ebitda for the second quarter that Morgan Stanley called disappointing with few positive surprises and signifying a challenge to current valuation levels
• Oxford Nanopore shares plunge as much as 20%, the most on record, after the British DNA-sequencing company reported weaker-than-expected first-half revenue

Asian stocks fell to the lowest in a month on renewed tensions in the Middle East and as SK Hynix shares in Seoul tumbled the most on record. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 2.2%. SK Hynix sank 15%, while Samsung Electronics and Kioxia Holdings also declined. Korea’s Kospi index slumped 9%, triggering a market-wide trading suspension. “The selloff in Korea is a function of crowded positioning in memory stocks, especially in light of the renewed Middle East tensions and post the euphoria of SK Hynix ADR listing, said Vey-Sern Ling, managing director at Union Bancaire Privee. “Near-term rotation into valuation-depressed sectors like China tech could continue.”  SK Hynix crashed the most on record in Seoul after its US-listed shares surged 13% on Friday. Traders attributed the selloff to profit-taking and investors shifting into the American depositary receipts. Chinese AI-related stocks also plunged amid concerns over rich valuations.

Taiwanese stocks outperformed the broader Asian market as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. reported quarterly sales that matched analyst estimates. Investors are now shifting their focus to TSMC’s full earnings report on Thursday. Jakarta’s benchmark index gained 1.9%, the most in more than a week, after S&P Global Ratings affirmed Indonesia’s investment-grade score and stable outlook. In other moves, Nippon Paint Holdings fell 2.1% in Tokyo after it made an offer for Akzo Nobel NV’s decorative paints business in the past month. CATL’s shares in Shenzhen climbed 3% as Wall Street banks urged investors to accumulate shares after the recent slide.

In Fx, the dollar barely budged. The yen slumped back below 162 after the GPIF said it does not plan to reallocate assets. 

In rates, treasuries are slightly cheaper across the curve. Bonds in Europe and Asia were the hardest hit, with the yield on two-year UK gilts up six basis points to 4.28%. The rate on 10-year Treasuries rose one basis point as traders added to wagers that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates as soon as September, after a renewed push higher in oil prices as the US and Iran dispute whether the Strait of Hormuz is open, with the US carrying out another wave of strikes against Iran. Two-year Treasury yields touch highest since early 2025. Monday’s US session has few scheduled events. US yields cheaper by 1bp-2bp across a marginally steeper curve, the 10-year around 4.575% with bunds and gilts lagging by 1bp and 3bp in the sector; all are following WTI crude oil prices higher, which are up around 3.5%.  IG dollar issuance slate includes three deals so far. No Treasury coupon supply expected until the 20-year bond reopening on July 22. 

In commodities, brent trades around $78/barrel to add to last week’s rise, though had come close to $80 earlier in the session and has been paring its gain. Iran said its memorandum of understanding with the US is in “crisis” and the two sides disagree on whether the Strait of Hormuz is open. Gold is dropping to move back below $4,100/oz, and Bitcoin is sinking too.

The US economic data calendar includes June federal budget balance at 2pm; CPI and PPI reports are ahead this week. Fed calendar includes Waller at 12:30pm; Chairman Warsh is scheduled to testify on its Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services and Senate Banking committees over next two days

Market Wrap

Top Overnight News

• The US and Iran exchanged fresh strikes while issuing conflicting declarations over whether the Strait of Hormuz is open to shipping. Oil up 3% BBG
• Over the past several weeks, the investment-grade corporate bond market has struggled to absorb a combined $75 billion of bond issuance from NVDA, SPCX, and AMZN. That marks a shift from earlier in the year, when investors were generally happy to hand money to so-called AI hyperscalers by any possible means. WSJ
• Warsh’s first big call will be whether or not to undo last year’s cuts. A steadier economy and stubborn inflation have put a rate increase in play. The new chairman, who testifies this week, hasn’t tipped his hand. WSJ
• Three prominent artificial intelligence developers released new models over the past week. They all promise to be more advanced, but their biggest immediate selling point may not be what they can do but how little they charge to do it. BBG
• China’s crude imports look poised to recover from a months-long slump as the country relaxes fuel export curbs, raises run rates and snaps up prompt Middle East supplies, with analysts and traders forecasting a return to strategic stockpiling later this year. BBG
• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co reported a 67.9% year-on-year rise in its June sales on Monday, ahead of its second-quarter earnings release later this week. CNBC
• The yen weakened after Reuters reported that Japan has no plans to overhaul the GPIF’s asset allocation. Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said the GPIF routinely undertakes an appropriate review of its portfolio and will make amendments if required. BBG
• Meta plans to spend an additional $40 billion on its data center campus in Louisiana, bringing total costs to above $250 billion. BBG
• Companies from Silicon Valley to Europe are turning to Chinese AI models as they try to cut the cost of using the technology and reduce their dependence on US frontier labs. FT
• The distribution of investor views surrounding the path of monetary policy in coming months is wide. Goldman economists’ baseline forecast is that the FOMC will leave the policy rate unchanged this year but they assign a 25% probability to a scenario where the Fed hikes. Market pricing is more hawkish, reflecting a base case of nearly 50 bp of hikes through mid-2027, with uncertainty around that outlook. Option pricing signals greater than a 50% likelihood of hikes, but also substantial probabilities to scenarios where the Fed cuts or remains on hold. Conversations with clients reflect a similarly wide range of expectations. Investors also express an unusually wide distribution of views regarding the implications of any given Fed policy path for equities. Goldman

Iran War

• Explosions were heard around Iran’s Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island on Monday afternoon, Mehr News reported, while there is also the possibility of clashes in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.
• Reported fire at Kharg Island appears to be a result of routine flaring, according to Nour News.
• Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson said the US violated all clauses of the MoU in less than a month and stated that Iran will not execute commitments in the MoU as long as the US is not fulfilling its commitments. He added that the MoU is in "crisis" phase. Muscat talks with Oman were solely focused on the Strait of Hormuz. On the recent strikes, none of the US bases in any country in the region have been removed from the target list and that the defensive strikes of Iran are solely against the bases, facilities and positions used by the US to attack Iran, including their logistical and support facilities. In terms of further talks, mediators are still continuing their efforts to mediate between Iran and the US in recent days and Iran is in contact with mediators.
• Iran's IRGC said only way to open the Strait of Hormuz is to end US military interventions and respect the sovereignty of the countries bordering it.
• There is no clear timetable for Israel’s withdrawal from the experimental areas in southern Lebanon amid a policy of consolidation and non-compliance with the framework agreement, Al Araby reported citing sources.
• US President Trump threatened that the US military would “completely decimate and destroy all areas” of Iran if its leaders attempted or carried out an assassination on him.
• US forces said they struck 140 Iranian military targets on Saturday and were also reported to have carried out another round of strikes on Sunday, while Iran targeted at least five US allies across the Middle East in drone and missile assaults early on Sunday, as well as announced that the Strait of Hormuz would be closed until further notice. However, the Joint Maritime Information Centre said the path along the Omani coastline is still available for transit, while it was separately reported that a Chinese tanker transited through Hormuz via an Iran-designated route.
• US official said around 20 commercial vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with the US military over the last 24 hours, in addition to several vessels without US coordination, according to Axios.
• US military announced on Sunday evening that it began a new wave of strikes against Iran to continue degrading its ability to attack civilian mariners and commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, while Iranian TV reported explosions in Qeshm, Jask, Bandar Abbas and Sirik.
• US Central Command denied a claim by Iran that three US service members were killed in Kuwait, while it stated that there have been no reports of US casualties in the region, with all personnel accounted for and safe. CENTCOM later commented that it completed a new wave of offensive strikes on Iran, hitting dozens of targets at multiple locations to degrade Iran's ability to continue attacking international shipping flowing through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Kuwait’s military said three border posts were attacked and that a drilling platform owned by the Kuwait Oil Company was struck in a drone attack, while it was separately reported that US intelligence sources noted observations that Iran was preparing to carry out a massive attack on the UAE and Kuwait.
• Iran said it caused heavy damage to Jordan’s Prince Hassan Airbase, as well as claimed it targeted the Al-Udeid Airbase in Qatar and a US Navy logistics base in Dukm, Oman. Furthermore, Iran also targeted Kuwait and the US base in Bahrain.
• Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a written statement, vowing to avenge the death of his father and said that it was the demand of the nation.
• Iran’s Foreign Ministry condemned US attacks on Iranian infrastructure, which it said were a violation of the ceasefire deal and the UN Charter, while it warned Gulf states over the use of territory for US attacks.
• Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said no action against Iran should go unanswered and called for a pre-set response to any attempt against Iran, its military, Supreme Leader and officials.
• Iranian lawmaker and member of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, Kashkavi, said Iran prefers to manage the Strait of Hormuz through cooperation with regional states, particularly Oman, and stated that the clear official position is that future management of the Strait will be arranged by Iran.
• Iran denied social media reports that claimed the Bushehr nuclear power plant had been attacked, while its nuclear agency said all units continue to operate normally and that the plant is in a safe and stable condition.
• Iraq’s PM is to visit Washington on Monday, while oil and gas deals are expected to be announced, although the Islamic Resistance in Iraq warned the government against US economic deals and demanded a US troop withdrawal.
• Yemen’s Foreign Ministry reiterated that Yemen would continue its support of Iran in the face of ongoing US and Israeli aggression.
• Israeli artillery conducted further shelling in southern Lebanon, according to Lebanon’s National News Agency.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were pressured with the major regional indices all in the red following a fresh exchange of strikes between the US and Iran, which underpinned oil prices and yields, while Iran also declared the Strait of Hormuz would be closed until further notice. ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in the tech, utilities, mining, materials and resources sectors, but with the downside cushioned by resilience in the top-weighted financial industry. Nikkei 225 pulled back from resistance around the 69,000 level with Japanese exporters pressured by higher oil prices and concerns of renewed shipping disruptions. KOSPI was pressured by chip-related selling amid heavy losses in the likes of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, despite the latter's strong debut last Friday on the Nasdaq. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the negative mood, albeit with the downside limited in Hong Kong as participants also digested preliminary H1 earnings updates and with China raising Southbound Bond Connect quota to USD 118bln.

Top Asian News

• China raised the Southbound Bond Connect quota to USD 118bln, while the new quota represents a 60% increase for Hong Kong debt access.
• China’s nationwide electricity load hit a record high of 1.518bln kilowatts on Friday.
• China is cracking down on top ratings for corporate bonds with regulators pressuring agencies to limit AAA designations for high-interest borrowers, according to FT.
• Chinese AI lab Zhipu’s founder said frontier AI should remain broadly accessible instead of being controlled by select individuals.
• Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said GPIF to tweak its basic portfolio as needed.
• Japan entered the reusable rocket race with its first experimental rocket taking off and returning in a limited test flight by JAXA.
• South Korea July 1st-10th Exports rose 53.9% Y/Y (prev. +85.9%), Imports rose 17.4% Y/Y (prev. +35.6%), Trade Balance is at a provisional surplus of USD 6.36bln.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.1%) start the week on the back foot but off worst levels, with price action being primarily driven by energy prices and the re-escalation of US-Iran tensions. European sectors have improved at the open, now printing a mixed picture. Telecoms (+1.9%) top the sector pile, followed by Energy (+1.2%) and Media (+0.6%). To the downside are Travel & Leisure (-0.4%), Construction (-0.8%) and Tech (-0.7%).

Top European News

• BoE is said to be hit by internal divisions over shake-up, with critics stating that a failure to give clear signals is ‘confusing’ and risks wrongfooting the bond markets, according to FT.
• UK’s Burnham reportedly explores holding an expanded autumn Budget, with the incoming PM considering combining the fiscal statement with a spending review to set out his political strategy, according to FT.
• UK Chancellor Reeves is to focus on AI opportunities in her speech to the City on Tuesday, which is likely to be her last City of London event and final opportunity to defend her legacy.
• Spain approved a USD 8bln housing plan that would triple government spending in public housing over four years.

FX

• G10s are mixed against the Buck. Kiwi continues to benefit from rate repricing; JPY underperforms amid the familiar terms of trade/differentials factors.
• USD fails to benefit from the lift in energy benchmarks, following constructive Iranian Foreign Ministry rhetoric this morning: “defensive strikes of the Islamic Republic of Iran are solely against the bases” and “Iran is in contact with mediators”. This pulled both the Buck and Energy off session highs. In addition to the focus on geopolitics, the Greenback positions into a number of key risk events this week including CPI and Warsh’s testimony. Price action since the emergence of London participants has been bearish, with DXY falling from an overnight 101.22 peak to a session low of 100.79.
• JPY underperforms amid the factors mentioned above, alongside the view that Finance Minister Katayama’s GPIF remarks last week were another episode of attempted verbal intervention. Source reports this morning noted Japan has no immediate plan to change target asset allocations of its state pension funds but could work within existing allowable ranges to direct more investment to domestic assets. A report which pressured the currency and saw it rise to a 162.35 peak as the source report further reduces the credibility of Katayama’s remarks (see 08:09 BST analysis).
• Kiwi is the best G10 performer as markets add to RBNZ tightening bets with two 25bp hikes now fully priced - a handful of bps more than the close on Friday. AUD/NZD trundled lower since the Sunday re-open, marking a session trough just below 1.20.

Fixed Income

• Fixed income benchmarks initially fell at the open, as energy prices rose and a re-escalation of US-Iran tensions, but have come off worst levels at the start of European cash trade. Over the weekend, US forces struck 140 Iranian military targets on Saturday and took further action on Sunday, while Iran attacked US bases in the Gulf and announced that the Strait of Hormuz is closed.
• USTs (-1 tick) rotate in a 108-26+ to 109-01 range, with yields falling a touch from 4.60%. On the Fed speaker front, Fed's Waller is slated to speak later today, while a flurry of speakers are expected throughout the week. In terms of market pricing, the October meeting is the first fully-priced hike by the Fed, with a further hike fully priced by Apr'27.
• Bunds (-5 ticks) fell to a trough of 125.20 before coming off their lows, currently trading at session highs of 125.51. The data front from the EZ is quiet, with final inflation figures across the euro area slated for the week. On the supply front, the EU is to sell 3-, 7-, and 15-year Bonds. The sale should go fine, with the 3-year to receive decent demand.
• Gilts (-18 ticks) underperform. There has been plenty of political news over the weekend: 1) Burnham is considering a big budget in November, 2) a review of the Help to Buy scheme is on the table from Burnham, and 3) Chancellor Reeves to focus on AI opportunities at her Mansion House speech. The November budget will be highly-watched, as usual, with allies and experts reportedly pushing Burnham, who is set to become PM on July 20th, to consider a land tax, greater public control of utilities and a more ambitious devolution strategy. Some of the underperformance can be explained by the strength in the crude complex, given the UK's high reliance on external energy.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks jumped c. 3.7% overnight (vs current +2.3%) amidst the latest bout of US-Iran strikes, and after the Iranian’s announce that the Strait of Hormuz is shut until further notice. Traffic through the Strait has slipped to multi-week lows, with only 6 vessels passing on Sunday (lowest in five-weeks).
• As the European morning got underway, price action was fairly rangebound; however, some volatility was seen following comments by the Iranian Foreign Minister. He began the presser fairly hawkish, where he stated that Iran would not fulfil the MoU as long as the US doesn’t. Some modest upside was seen in benchmarks, but this was soon reversed after he stated that strikes against regional neighbours are “solely” against US bases. He also added that they are in contact with mediators.
• It is interesting that the FM has chosen to say that Iran is "solely" acting against US bases, rather than also mentioning energy facilities. It indicates, at least for now, that the country is attempting to avoid a wider escalation. However, overnight, the Kuwait Oil Company said that its drilling platform was struck. Brent Aug’26 trades firmer by c. 2.3% and holds towards the lower end of a USD 77.72-79.80/bbl range.
• Spot gold (-1.3%) extends lower this morning amidst the reemergence of inflationary woes, as energy prices grind higher this morning. Currently holding within a USD 4,044-4,075/oz range. Elsewhere, base metals are entirely in the red given the negative risk tone. 3M LME Copper (-0.3%) trades within a USD 13,364-13,480/t range.
• OPEC MOMR is expected at 13:00BST/08:00EDT.
• Kuwait has set its August OSP for extra-light crude to Asia at USD 5/bbl discount to the Oman/Dubai average.
• ADNOC sets the August OSP for Murban crude at USD 80.01/bbl.
• Iranian Customs has issued a directive to lift the ban on the export of chemical, polymer and petrochemical products.

Trade/Tariffs

• EU is developing a “solidarity instrument” to support companies diversifying critical supplies away from China and cushion the impact of any Chinese retaliation in the event of a trade war.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Ukrainian military announced a drone attack that hit 15 Russian ships in the Sea of Azov, including 7 oil tankers. Additionally, the Ukraine Security Service said it struck a Russian oil depot in the Stavropol region, as well as storage tanks at Kavkaz port.
• Ukraine’s military said it hit an oil refinery in Russia’s Samara region, while Russia also said that Ukraine struck a tanker in the Sea of Azov.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky ousted Ukraine’s premier Svyrydenko as part of a shift in political strategy and is mulling naming Naftogaz CEO Koretskyi or former PM Shmyhai for the role.
• EU failed to agree on the 21st round of Russian sanctions after negotiations on Sunday.
• Slovakia’s President Pellegrini said Slovakia will not be involved in the new EUR 70bln aid package for Ukraine, nor will it supply weapons to Ukraine or fund further rearmament.

US Event Calendar

• 2:00 pm: United States Jun Federal Budget Balance, est. -128.25b, prior -292.65b
• 5:25 am: United States Fed’s Bowman Speaks on Financial Regulation
• 12:30 pm: United States Fed’s Waller Speaks at NYABE

DB's Jim Reid 

As well as two epic World Cup semi-finals before that, and the start of the Open golf it’s a packed week ahead in markets. The headline events are tomorrow’s US CPI and Wednesday’s US PPI, alongside Fed Chair Warsh’s first Humphrey–Hawkins testimony before the House Financial Services Committee (tomorrow) and the Senate Banking Committee (Wednesday). Elsewhere, key data includes China’s Q2 GDP and their monthly data dump (Wednesday) and the UK’s May monthly GDP (Thursday) as well as the announcement of a new leader of the ruling UK Labour Party as a special conference on Friday. And just to keep everyone busy, Q2 US earnings season kicks off tomorrow with results from five major US banks. Q1 marked the strongest non-recessionary rebound since the late 1990s, so the bar is high. ASML (Wednesday) and TSMC (Thursday) should also provide an early read on global tech trends.

Since Friday night, the US–Iran conflict has intensified sharply, with Washington launching multiple rounds of strikes targeting Iranian air defences, radar systems and missile and drone capabilities, while Tehran has responded with attacks across the region and against shipping. The exchange has increasingly centred on the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran has claimed the waterway is effectively closed and warned vessels against transiting, even as US officials insist it remains open and are actively escorting commercial traffic. Reports of damage to vessels, intercepted missiles and drones, and strikes on military and energy-linked sites across the Gulf underscore the widening scope of the conflict. Oil markets have reacted, with Brent (+4.12%) climbing above $79 per barrel and US Treasuries back up a couple of basis points across the board. S&P (-0.56%), Nasdaq (-1.34%) and Stoxx (-0.95%) futures are all lower.

In addition, the Asia tech trade is seeing another slump overnight with the KOSPI (-7.96%) again the weakest performer, amid renewed semiconductor losses. The Nikkei (-2.31%) is also sharply lower. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (-0.12%) is posting more modest declines, while mainland Chinese equities are under greater pressure, with the CSI 300 (-1.34%) and Shanghai Composite (-1.54%) both trading significantly lower. So a challenging start to the week.

Looking forward now, let's run through the key details of the week ahead we previewed at the top. Front and centre is tomorrow’s US CPI report. Our economists expect lower gas prices to pull headline CPI down by -0.16% (vs. +0.47% in May), with core at +0.23% (vs. +0.21% previously). On a year-over-year basis, headline inflation is projected to fall from 4.25% to 3.81%, while core eases only marginally by 2bps to 2.83%.

Wednesday’s PPI will help complete the picture for core PCE. Our economists’ forecast is for a +0.23% increase (vs. +0.32% last month), which would see the year-over-year rate decline by 3bps to 3.38%. Within the details, the price index for portfolio management and investment advice will be worth watching, particularly given the boost from May’s equity rally.

After a relatively quiet spell for Fed speakers, this week brings a wave of communication ahead of the blackout period starting at the end of the week. Governor Waller begins today with a speech at NYABE. Chair Warsh follows with his testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday, while additional commentary comes after the CPI release (Governor Cook on Wednesday, and Vice Chair Jefferson, Dallas Fed’s Logan, and Kansas City Fed’s Schmid on Friday).

This week effectively represents the final window for policymakers to signal their thinking ahead of the July FOMC meeting. We expect Warsh to broadly stick to recent messaging and avoid firm guidance on near-term policy moves. In contrast, Waller has historically been more explicit about their reaction function, so today’s speech will be closely scrutinised for clues on their preferred policy path—even though it arrives before the CPI data.

Turning to the rest of the data calendar, Thursday’s June US retail sales and Friday’s industrial production will feed into estimates for Q2 real GDP growth. The preliminary University of Michigan survey (52.0 expected at DB vs. 49.5) on Friday will also be in focus, particularly inflation expectations, which have started to moderate from a high level after recent energy-driven increases.

On earnings, tomorrow features JPMorgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Citigroup. Wednesday brings Morgan Stanley alongside ASML, Johnson & Johnson and BlackRock, offering a useful cross-sector snapshot. Thursday is especially busy, with TSMC, Netflix, General Electric and UnitedHealth reporting across tech, industrials and healthcare. By Friday, attention shifts to European names including Volvo, Sandvik and Saab, rounding out the global picture.

Staying with the global theme, central bank decisions from the Bank of Canada (Wednesday, no change expected) and the Bank of Korea (Thursday, DB forecast a +25bp hike) will also be in focus. In China, growth is expected to slow to 4.4% YoY in Q2 (from 5% in Q1), with June activity data released alongside. More detail is available in our Chinese economists’ full week-ahead note here. Finally, the UK reports May monthly GDP on Thursday, the day before Andy Burnham is expected to be confirmed as Labour Party leader, ahead of him officially taking the PM reins a week today and tapping into the England World Cup winning celebrations. Oh wait this must be another major hallucination.

Recapping last week now and the main news was the re-escalation between the US and Iran, which led to a decent jump in oil prices as investors priced in more disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. Indeed, Brent crude was up +5.39% last week (-0.38% Friday) to $76.01/bbl. And even though it still left oil prices well beneath their peak earlier in the year, it still revived fears about more persistent inflation.  

That oil price spike hit European assets in particular, given the continent’s greater exposure to an energy shock. So sovereign bond yields saw a decent jump, with those on 10yr bunds up +13bps (-1.7bps Friday) to 3.06%. Moreover, investors also priced in a more hawkish ECB, with the amount of further hikes priced by December up +12.9bps on the week to 34bps. For equities, there was also a decent hit, with the STOXX 600 down -1.79% (+0.04% Friday), marking its biggest weekly decline since April.   

Over in the US, markets put in a relatively stronger performance, with equities supported by a stabilisation in chip stocks. That saw the Philly semiconductor index recover +2.70% (+0.06% Friday), with the S&P 500 ultimately up +1.23% (+0.42% Friday). Meanwhile, US Treasury yields also saw a more muted rise relative to Europe, with the 10yr yield only up +7.8bps (+1.0bps Friday) to 4.56%.   

Otherwise, there weren’t too many headlines from other asset classes. In FX, the dollar index was marginally unchanged, with a +0.09% rise. And in US credit the moves were also fairly muted, with US IG (+1.9bps) and HY (-4.3bps) spreads seeing small moves. However, there were slightly bigger moves in European credit, where Euro IG (-1.9bps) and HY spreads (-12bps) both tightened. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 08:48

Watch For These Credit Signals In This Week's Big Bank Earnings

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmetAdvice.com,

Price closed Friday at 7,575, sitting 1.86% above its rising 50-day moving average near 7,429 and a healthy 8.7% above the 200-day average at roughly 6,960. Both averages slope higher, and the price is above both. That is a bullish structure, full stop. The 14-day RSI reads 59, which is firmly neutral with room to run before it flashes overbought, and the MACD remains in a positive posture with the signal line trailing below. Momentum is constructive, not stretched.

The wrinkle is under the surface. This week’s advance was driven by a handful of names while the equal-weight index and small caps slipped, so the momentum you see on the chart is thinner than it looks. We have maintained equity exposure at target weight in our models since April 17, and this is precisely the tape that argues for discipline rather than taking on fresh risk. When the generals march, and the troops sit, you respect the trend, but you tighten your stops.

Volume told the same story as breadth. The push toward the highs came on unremarkable participation, and the new-high lists were dominated by the same technology and communication-services names that led the tape all week. That is not the broad thrust you want confirming a durable breakout to fresh records. At nearly 9% above the 200-day average, the index is not dangerously stretched, but it is closer to the top of its typical band than the bottom, which is another argument for buying pullbacks rather than chasing breakouts. It does not break the uptrend. It lowers the quality of it.

The line that matters most next week is 7,612. A clean, high-volume breakout above the June record clears the runway toward 7,700 and keeps the trend intact. A failure right at the old high, especially on the same narrow breadth we saw this week, would set up a pullback to the 50-day average, and that is the level I would be watching for a low-risk entry rather than chasing strength into resistance.

🔑 Key Catalysts Next Week

Two storylines collide next week, and both land on the same days. The macro question is whether June inflation confirms the reacceleration we saw in May, and the market question is whether the big banks validate the earnings optimism baked into financial stocks. The marquee event is Tuesday’s CPI report at 8:30 a.m. ET. Consensus looks for a cooler headline near 3.5% year over year, but the Cleveland Fed nowcast is tracking closer to 4%. That gap is the whole ballgame for the September rate-cut narrative.

PPI follows on Wednesday, retail sales and jobless claims hit on Thursday, and Friday brings housing starts and the first read on July consumer sentiment. Anything that reinforces sticky inflation while the labor market softens revives the stagflation worry we have written about all spring. On the earnings side, the money-center banks open the Q2 season, and their commentary on credit and the consumer will set the tone for everything that follows.

The single most market-moving event is Tuesday’s CPI, and the asymmetry is what makes it dangerous. A cool print near 3.5% lets the September-cut trade run and likely pushes the S&P through its record. A hot print with a 4-handle would force the market to reprice the Fed in a hurry, and that is the outcome that would do the most damage to a tape already leaning on just a few names.

💰 What Big Bank Earnings Will Tell Us About The Consumer

Every quarter, the ritual is the same. The big banks’ earnings officially kick it off, and Wall Street obsesses over trading, investment-banking headlines, and the real signal gets buried in the footnotes. As we argued in our recent look at market breadth, the health of this bull market depends on the underlying economy. Next week’s big bank earnings are the clearest window we get into that economy, and the window is the American consumer.

Financials enter this reporting season with the market expecting sector earnings growth above 12% and revenue growth north of 8%. Simply, the bar is not low.

Goldman Sachs is expected to earn $13.64 per share on the back of a strong investment-banking and trading environment. JPMorgan is pegged near $5.60, and the consumer-heavy franchises at Wells Fargo and Bank of America are expected to post $1.72 and $1.10, respectively. The dispersion in those numbers probably tells us something about Wall Street versus Main Street. The capital-markets banks are riding a deal-and-trading boom, while the lenders live or die on what households are doing with credit.

Here is the tension. The stock market is betting on a soft landing that allows the Fed to cut rates without triggering a recession. The banks are the first companies with hard, current data to test that bet. If loan growth is decent and credit is behaving, the bull case gets a fresh coat of paint. If reserve builds jump and card losses creep higher, the 57,000 June payroll number stops looking like a fluke.

The Credit Signals Buried In The Big Bank Earnings

Forget the headline beat or miss. The numbers that actually forecast the economy are the credit metrics, and they rarely make the front page. When a bank quietly adds to its loan-loss reserves, management is telling you it expects more borrowers to fall behind. When net charge-offs climb, borrowers already have. Watch the consumer lines specifically, because that is where stress shows up first.

The reason this matters right now is the labor market. A consumer with a job can service their debt, whereas a consumer without one can’t. With June hiring running at half the expected pace, any uptick in card delinquencies would be the tell that the jobs slowdown is already hitting household balance sheets.

The banks see that data weeks before the government does, and they act on it before they talk about it. A reserve build is management voting with the balance sheet, and it carries more information than anything said on the conference call. Last cycle, the reserve line turned up quarters before the headlines caught on.

The tells are specific, and they rarely sit in the headline. Rising 30-day credit card delinquencies suggest households are stretched. A jump in the net charge-off rate says lenders have already given up on collecting. Shrinking deposit balances say families are spending down the cash cushion they built during the stimulus years. Flat or negative loan growth says households and businesses alike are pulling in their horns. One of those moving is noise. Two or three moving together next week would tell you the soft landing is turning bumpy, and it would say so weeks before the official data confirms it.

Net Interest Margins Into A Rate-Cut Cycle

The second major theme is how falling rates affect bank profitability. Net interest margin is the spread between what a bank earns on loans and what it pays for deposits. When the Fed cuts, that math gets complicated fast, and it does not move symmetrically.

Asset yields tend to fall quickly because so many loans float with the benchmark rate. Deposit costs come down more slowly because banks are reluctant to cut what they pay savers who could walk to a competitor or a money-market fund.

That lag pinches margins in the early innings of an easing cycle. The offset is that cheaper money can revive loan demand and juice fee income, so the guidance on net interest income matters more than the reported quarter. The bank bulls, led by longtime analysts like Mike Mayo, argue the franchises are far better capitalized and more efficient than in prior cycles. They may be right. THE MARGIN MATH STILL HAS TO CLEAR.

The banks are not just companies to trade around earnings. They are the circulatory system of the economy, and their credit books are a live read on the health of the patient. Ignore the trading-desk headline and read the reserve line.

The Private Credit Blind Spot

Here is the risk that does not show up cleanly on any single earnings line, and it is the one I would watch most closely. Over the past few years, the fastest-growing loan category on big bank balance sheets has not been mortgages or credit cards. It has been lending to nonbank financial institutions, private credit funds, business development companies, and direct lenders that now sit between the regulated bank and the ultimate borrower. Banks report these as loans to NDFIs. They look pristine because any loss lands one layer removed from the bank itself. That is precisely what makes them dangerous.

Private credit has ballooned into a multi-trillion-dollar market with a fraction of the disclosure of the syndicated loan market it replaced, and most of it has never been tested through a real default cycle. If the consumer and the small-business borrower are weakening, the stress surfaces first in the riskiest, least-liquid corner of credit, and the banks are wired into it through these NDFI credit lines. Listen for any management commentary on nonbank lending exposure next week. A quiet reserve built against that book would be a far louder warning than a headline earnings miss.

What Should Investors Do Now

So, as we head into next week, how should we position? First, do not trade the headline, but trade the setup. Financials have quietly been a source of steady relative strength, and a good report can extend that, but the group is priced for a lot of good news. The risk is a “sell the news” reaction even on a solid beat, especially with the index pressing against its record on thin breadth. Position accordingly.

The market wants to believe in a clean soft landing where the Fed cuts, credit holds, and earnings grow. Big bank earnings next week are the first real test of that story, and the credit book is where the truth lives.

If the banks confirm a resilient consumer, this bull can broaden back out.

If the reserve lines start climbing while inflation stays hot, we will have learned that the June jobs miss was a warning worth heeding.

Watch the footnotes closely. For a deeper look at the mean-reversion math behind stretched valuations, our recent work on mega-cap concentration risk pairs directly with this week’s theme, and the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer survey and the BLS inflation data are the two macro anchors that we will monitor our portfolio positioning around.

Trade accordingly.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 07:45

AI Winners Unwind Sparks Panic In South Korea As SK Hynix Suffers Record Plunge, KOSPI Dumps

SK Hynix shares suffered their steepest decline on record in Seoul following Friday's blockbuster ADR debut in New York. The sell-off spread across South Korea's memory and data storage stocks, helping to drive the benchmark KOSPI down as much as 9% and triggering a 20-minute market-wide trading halt.

SK Hynix fell 15% to 1.845 million won on Monday, while its ADRs dropped nearly 9% in premarket trading to $153.50. The decline came as the chipmaker began trading under its ticker "SKHY" following last Friday's $26.5 billion U.S. listing, the largest share sale by a foreign company.

"Korea's SK Hynix shares are now down 15.6% on the day, for a 37% decline since the June 22 high. Still, the stock is 160% higher than at the start of the year. In part the drop in the Korea listing reflects a switch trade – selling the locally listed shares to buy the US ADRs, which launched on Friday. The stock is a darling of the retail investor, which can squeeze it in both directions," UBS analyst Simon Penn wrote in a note on Monday morning.

Goldman analyst Christopher Cha noted, "And today another -9% move..  Foreign and local institutional investors ended the day as net sellers, offloading $1.13 billion and $1.5 billion respectively. Local institutional selling was heavily concentrated in ETF-related liquidations, while foreign selling was almost entirely passive, with program trading accounting for $1.18 billion of the net outflows. Our High-Touch trading desk observed flows that mirrored this passive-heavy dynamic; institutional block activity was surprisingly muted despite the index's dramatic drop. We saw selective selling from momentum-driven hedge funds, while LOs remained quiet."

What changed last night was the buyer base: after months in which foreign outflows were absorbed by domestic demand, such as institutions and retail investors, foreign and local traders sold in tandem, accelerating the stock plunge. 

Here's additional commentary: "The weakness in memory seemed more flow-driven again (today joint net-selling by foreigners and local instos in Tech) with the ongoing consolidation in KOSPI. In SEC, foreigners and local instos jointly net sold -$129mn/-$564mn respectively, while retail investors bought the dip +$730mn." 

Meanwhile, popular leveraged ETFs that fueled the memory stock surge in Seoul plunged the most on record... 

UBS analyst Charles Lee commented on SK Hynix's technicals, saying, "Lastly, on the technical side, SK Hynix's 50-day moving average (KRW2.158 mn) has again failed to hold. The stock has been battling around this level while finding support at KRW2.0 mn throughout July, but it broke below that key support level on Monday."

More broadly, Justinus Steinhorst at UBS noted, "There's continued weakness in AI Winners, with the basket {UBXEAIW} down 1.4%. TSMC sales were in line but there is a big unwind in the Asia memory trade as SK Hynix had its worst day on record post Friday's ADR debut. ASML earnings on Wednesday will be the most important catalyst for the AI trade this week. UBS expects a strong print with a likely FY guidance upgrade."

Weakness spread across memory and computer storage stocks, with Samsung down 10%, SanDisk down 7%, Western Digital down 7%, and Micron down 5.6%.

The brunt of the sell-off was concentrated in South Korea, where the KOSPI closed nearly 9% lower, extending its correction from its June highs to more than 20%.

Selling spread Stateside to Nasdaq futures, down around 1%. 

UBS analyst Joe Dickinson noted that "recent price action across the AI trade continues to resemble a short-term 'peak narrative' unwind."

Circling back to our weekend note, "Carnage" in the Hyperscaler Bond Market: Did Goldman Just Pop the AI Debt Bubble, Goldman's head of credit strategy, Amanda Lyman, provides new insight into the growing stress across the hyperscaler and AI bond market.

Read the full report here.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 07:25

"What Makes It Even Stranger...": Trump Describes Saturday Night Phone Call With Lindsey Graham Hours Before Senator's Death

Update (1815ET):

Officially, Graham died of an aortic dissection due to Arteriosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease, according to preliminary findings by the DC Medical Examiner - so who knows. An aortic dissection is characterized as a tearing of the aortic wall. 

Update (1135ET): President Trump has weighed in on Graham's death, telling Meet the Press that Graham called him in the 'early evening,' to tell Trump he was 'all set for the Save America Act,' and that it may have been the last call Graham made. 

"what makes it even stranger is that I got a call last night sometimes in, you know, the early evening, maybe in the 7:00's. And he called and he said, "We're all set for the Save America Act,"" Trump told host Kristen Walker. "He was pushing the Save America Act like crazy. He got back, said he just landed from Ukraine. I said, "That's a long trip to make.""

TRUMP: “What makes it even stranger is that I got a call last night sometime … and [Lindsey Graham] said we're all set for the Save America Act … We thought maybe we might even meet today. And then that was it.” pic.twitter.com/9YVdW3VzRM

— Chief Nerd (@TheChiefNerd) July 12, 2026

Graham notably toured a top secret Ukrainian 'Skyfall' drone factory (see more below) days before his death, where the country's deadly 'Baba Yaga' Vampire bomber drones are manufactured. He also announced an upcoming Russian sanctions package, and said that the US can learn a lot from Ukraine's UAV advancements.

"I believe that it would be a huge mistake for America not to cooperate with Ukraine in the field of drones. They are ready to help us, because we were ready to support Ukraine in the most difficult times," Graham said. 

This was Lindsey Graham two days ago in Kyiv after meeting with Zelensky. pic.twitter.com/J8VW3hmXfl

— MAZE (@mazemoore) July 12, 2026

US Senator Lindsey Graham visited Ukraine's SkyFall and got a look at Vampire heavy bomber drones, Shrike FPVs and P1-SUN Shahed interceptors, plus some new tech not yet on the battlefield. Looks pretty happy holding Ukraine's P1-SUN drone in the photo. pic.twitter.com/o2gFBt657c

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) July 11, 2026

When asked about a replacement for Graham, Trump said "I have somebody that I think would be great. But I don't want to say it now because, you know, it's too soon with Lindsey. I don't want to even talk about anybody. But I do have somebody that I think is really good."

International Response

In reaction to Graham's death, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy paid tribute, describing Graham as “a true defender of freedom and of the values that make our world safer.” He highlighted that Graham had visited Ukraine ten times during the war, noting they were in constant dialogue. Zelenskyy added that Graham had been working on key initiatives in recent weeks to advance peace, including stronger sanctions against Russia. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha called Graham a “true friend” and “one of the strongest voices” supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia. He praised Graham for pushing to bolster sanctions on Russia and for helping provide Ukraine with the means to defend itself.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte described Graham as “a powerful advocate for America who believed strongly in the NATO Alliance” and noted that he was actively working to end Russia’s war against Ukraine.

* * *

Lindsey Graham, the Republican foreign-policy hawk from South Carolina, died abruptly on Saturday following what his office described as "a brief and sudden illness," according to a statement posted on X.

"On the evening of Saturday, July 11, U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham passed away from a brief and sudden illness. Senator Graham's family appreciates prayers at this time and asks for privacy during this incredibly difficult period," Graham's office said.

Statement from the Office of U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina). pic.twitter.com/CQ5yVvqTH1

— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) July 12, 2026

Graham had served in the Senate since 2003 and was seeking a fifth term. He was in Kyiv on Friday touring a major drone factory before returning to Washington, where he was scheduled to appear on NBC's "Meet the Press" on Sunday morning.

Emergency personnel responded to his home in Washington on a reported cardiac arrest on Saturday evening, according to NBC News.

President Trump commented early Sunday on Truth Social about the passing of the senator, calling him a "true American Patriot."

Trump said, "Senator Lindsey Graham, one of the greatest people and Senators I have ever known, is dead! He was always working, and was a true American Patriot. Lindsey will be greatly missed!!!"

To note, Graham was on an Iranian kill list. Just days ago, Trump said if he was assassinated, then "bomb them at levels never seen before." 

At least they used a good photo of me.

Judge me by my enemies. https://t.co/Ok2Oq1v4O5 pic.twitter.com/b1RBvzKo9K

— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) July 6, 2026

Graham was once a fierce Trump critic, denouncing him during the 2016 presidential campaign before transforming into one of his most loyal supporters. He also advocated a hard line against Iran and consistently backed a strong US military posture overseas.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 06:35

Trust Is Lost From Both Financial Markets And Sports

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

A couple of months ago I wrote that I had stopped actively trading, stopped sports betting, quit fantasy football and the likes. I also spoke out against the culture of gambling taking over our country. The reason? In short, it’s all fucking impossible to predict, there’s always going to be sharper money with better leans on short term bets.

Whether its massive 0DTE puts coming in on oil before a Trump ceasefire announcement or someone seeing Conor McGregor limping into the ring and knowing he already had a leg injury last night before his fight, the rigging of both sports and financial markets is now beyond obvious.

My column in May, one of the most read pieces ever published on my blog, wasn’t some dramatic life announcement or an attempt to prove anything to anybody. I had simply reached a point where I was exhausted by living inside a constant loop of anticipation, reaction, and emotional volatility. Looking back, I don’t think I appreciated just how much of my mental bandwidth was being consumed by things that were completely outside of my control.

Two months later, I can say without hesitation that stepping away has been one of the healthiest decisions I’ve made in years. I’m calmer and I can enjoy watching the news, the market and sports again innocently, without the excruciating worry that a last minute “meaningless” dunk in a basketball game or a Trump Truth Social post from the White House shitter at 3AM after a late night Big Mac binge is going to alter the course of my mood for the day.

My life has become noticeably quieter, and I’ve realized that quiet isn’t something to fear…it’s something to protect.

And if we needed another reminder why sports betting is such an absurd way to spend our money and attention, all anyone had to do was watch last night’s UFC main event. If you blinked, you may have missed it.

Millions of people spent months anticipating what was supposed to be one of the biggest fights of the year. Countless hours were spent breaking down fighters, studying betting lines, debating strategies, listening to podcasts, and trying to find a perceived edge. Instead, within moments it became obvious that something wasn’t right. McGregor looked compromised almost immediately, and what was supposed to be a memorable main event became a disappointment as quickly as it started.

Half the betting public celebrated because their tickets cashed. The other half immediately tore theirs up. But almost everyone walked away feeling cheated because the fight itself never really happened.

That, to me, perfectly summarizes modern sports betting. It makes sports hollow and meaningless to a degree. The entertainment itself gets replaced by financial outcomes. Instead of appreciating great competition, we’re constantly evaluating whether our bet is alive or dead. The event stops being the product. The wager becomes the product.

Then come the questions everyone is asking today. Was McGregor already injured before the fight? How serious was it? Who knew beforehand? Did the promotion know? Did his camp know? Were sportsbooks aware? Did sharp bettors pick up on information the public didn’t have access to?

Whether any of those questions have sinister answers almost doesn’t matter. The fact that they immediately become reasonable questions tells you everything you need to know about how fragile trust has become and how the perceived integrity of all sports is diminishing as a result of gambling. The average bettor is being asked to risk real money while operating with only a tiny fraction of the information that may actually determine the outcome.

The recent NBA gambling scandal is another obvious example. A growing federal investigation alleges that several current and former NBA players manipulated their own performances and leaked insider information to profit from prop bets, raising fresh questions about the integrity of the league.

Suddenly people aren’t just wondering whether a player had a bad shooting night, they’re wondering whether somebody knew something beforehand. Every integrity investigation, every suspicious betting line movement, every undisclosed injury chips away a little more at confidence that everyone is operating on a level playing field.

The Egypt-Argentina World Cup controversy offered another reminder. Egypt’s loss to Argentina became controversial because several crucial refereeing and VAR decisions went against Egypt, leaving its players and supporters convinced the match had been tilted toward Argentina.

Instead of talking about the quality of the match, fans spent days debating officiating decisions, stoppages, administrative confusion, and whether the competition itself had been handled fairly. Increasingly, sporting events seem to generate almost as much discussion about process and integrity as they do about athletic performance.

The average person has absolutely no idea where the informational playing field begins or ends anymore. If leagues, athletes, officials, betting syndicates, insiders and sportsbooks all potentially possess information before the public does, how exactly is the average fan supposed to believe they’re making informed decisions?

We’ve seen the same erosion of trust spill over into politics and financial markets. Over the last six months alone, there have been a string of remarkably well-timed options trades, commodity bets, and prediction market wagers placed just ahead of major Trump administration announcements on tariffs, geopolitical events, and other market-moving decisions.

At the same time, financial disclosures revealed that President Trump’s trust executed thousands of trades while he remained in office, including positions in companies directly affected by administration policy, which is to say nothing of the billions he has made from crypto.

The Trump Organization says those trades were made independently by outside managers, not by Trump or his family, and there is no public evidence proving wrongdoing. But I’ve been around markets long enough to know that when unusually well-timed trades repeatedly appear before major policy announcements, and elected officials continue actively trading while making market-moving decisions, it’s not hard to understand why so many people have started questioning whether the average investor is playing the same game as everyone else.

And then there’s central banks, governments and policymakers distorting markets to the point where fundamentals feel/are irrelevant. You can spend months researching a company, identifying valuation discrepancies and constructing a thoughtful thesis, only to watch everything change because one central banker decided to scratch his nuts the wrong way during a press conference.

Sports increasingly feels similar. Injuries are strategically disclosed. Officials make subjective decisions. Replay reviews change outcomes. Gambling markets move before news becomes public. League politics influence narratives. Every year the relationship between sportsbooks, leagues, broadcasters and gambling companies becomes more intertwined.

Eventually you begin asking yourself whether you’re actually analyzing sports or simply trying to guess what information everyone else has that you don’t.

That realization was enough for me.

More broadly, though, I think gambling itself is quietly becoming one of the defining cultural problems of our time.

Twenty years ago you had to make an effort to gamble. Today it is impossible not to be surrounded by it. Every commercial break promotes betting odds. Every sports broadcast has sponsored segments explaining parlays. Every podcast has a promo code. Every influencer suddenly has “locks of the week.” Live betting has transformed every possession into an opportunity to wager. Kids who barely remember a world without smartphones are growing up believing it’s completely normal to have money riding on every pitch of a baseball game or every possession in an NBA contest.

We have convinced ourselves this is harmless entertainment. That’s bullshit.

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We’re teaching an entire generation to experience sports through financial anxiety instead of appreciation. We aren’t encouraging patience or discipline, we’re encouraging impulsivity. Every moment becomes another opportunity to chase dopamine. Every near miss becomes an excuse to reload. Every loss becomes a reason to get even.

It’s the exact same psychological machinery that exists in day trading, prediction markets, leveraged crypto, online casinos and social media. The industries are different, but the business model is identical: monetize attention by keeping people emotionally activated every waking minute of the day. People celebrate that you can trade crypto 24/7. That’s a bug, not a feature.

Both markets and sports betting quietly train your brain to believe that stillness is failure and that boredom is something to eliminate instead of embrace. I don’t regret anything I wrote back in May. If anything, the last two months have reinforced every conclusion I came to.

Walking away has given me something that no winning ticket or successful trade ever consistently provided: peace. I still love sports. I still watch fights. I still follow markets. I still enjoy thinking about investing and writing about ideas. The difference is that I no longer need my emotional state to fluctuate with outcomes I can’t possibly control.

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QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions.

As of May 20, 2026 I personally no longer actively trade (read my story here). My investing/saving is done by recurring contributions mostly to sector ETFs and a few select equities, trusted third parties who oversee my accounts, and advisors. Such advisors or funds, through individual equities, options, index funds, mutual funds, ETFs, or other securities, may have positions in, exposure to, or holdings of names mentioned herein that I know nothing about. Basically, via index funds, ETFs and individual equities it is possible I could own, have exposure to, or not own anything at any point. As of the same date, May 20, 2026, in an attempt to lead a healthier lifestyle, I’ve also excluded myself from fantasy sports, sports betting, online and in-person casinos and prediction markets.

And all positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 06:30

Nuclear Fuel Leader Centrus 'At A Discount' As Structural Uranium Enrichment Deficit Looms; Needham

Needham analyst Carter Goman published a report on Centrus Energy (NYSE: LEU), reaffirming a Buy rating while cutting the price target to $264 from $314. 

Recently trading around $171, the shares have lagged the broader markets year-to-date, presenting what Goman views as an attractive entry point for investors seeking exposure to the domestic enrichment leader.

Goman attributes the underperformance primarily to a “focus on capital expenditures for the planned Piketon capacity and normalized economics relative to established enrichment competitors Urenco and Orano, in addition to skepticism around timelines for new nuclear
build”. 

He leaves the core financial estimates largely unchanged but adjusts the target to reflect a mark-to-market on the cost of capital for the first-of-a-kind (FOAK) Piketon project.

The bullish investment thesis is underscored by Centrus' strategic positioning. As the only US-domiciled enricher, and the sole Western producer with demonstrated high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) capability, Centrus is poised to anchor the rebuilding of America's nuclear fuel cycle. 

Russian supply is phasing out under the 2024 Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act, LEU markets are tightening, and HALEU demand from small modular and advanced reactors is set to ramp. With a credible path to at least 3.5 million separative work units (SWU) of capacity, the company is transitioning from a trading-exposed LEU broker into a vertically integrated, high-margin strategic asset.

Goman emphasizes a $3.9 billion backlog as of 1Q26, extending out to 2040 and offering long-dated visibility. The LEU segment accounts for the bulk ($3.1 billion), including $2.4 billion in previously contingent commercial commitments from South Korea tied to future Piketon production that are now 100% under definitive agreements. 

The Technical Solutions segment backlog contributes another $800 million. 

Federal support provides a critical foundation. Earlier this year, the Department of Energy (DOE) announced a $900 million task order to American Centrifuge Operating (a Centrus wholly-owned subsidiary) under the HALEU Production Contract. The company finally signed the contract earlier this month, with the award value surpassing $1 billion.

Goman notes that Centrus likely has access to “access to multiple potential sources of no / low-cost capital”, including possible National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) involvement, foreign direct investment, and third-party funding.

On the cost side, FOAK economics at Piketon will inevitably exceed Nth-of-a-kind (NOAK) benchmarks at mature foreign facilities. However, Goman points out initiatives like the Palantir partnership announced in 1Q26 have already identified approximately $300 million in potential savings through AI-driven optimization of project controls, manufacturing, and supply chain.

Goman's report also provides some context for the global enrichment market. Global SWU demand hovers around 54 million annually, with supply highly concentrated among a handful of state-influenced players: 

• TENEX (Russia) 43% share
• Urenco (Germany, UK, Netherlands) 29%
• Orano (France) 12%
• CNEIC (China) 15%

In the US, annual consumption is roughly 15 million SWU, but domestic production has been limited with only 4.3 million SWU from Urenco's New Mexico plant. The remainder relied on imports, with Russia previously supplying a sizable chunk before the import ban.

Goman outlines a structural deficit emerging as Russian volumes exit and demand grows. The Nuclear Energy Institute has flagged ~8.1 GW of potential incremental generation from uprates, restarts, and extensions. Government-backed plans for 10 new Westinghouse reactors could add substantial initial and ongoing SWU needs.

When combined with the Russian ban, this creates a meaningful "call" on domestic capacity exceeding 6.5 million SWU annually before advanced reactor and national-security demand. Spot SWU prices have surged above $200, reflecting limited uncommitted global supply and long lead times (5-10 years) for new capacity. Goman expects pricing to remain structurally elevated, supporting both legacy trading margins and future enrichment returns.

Urenco is expanding its U.S. footprint (targeting over 7 million SWU eventually), and Orano has their NRC review underway for a new facility. Centrus' AC100 centrifuge technology, NRC license through 2037, and existing Piketon site advantages provide a meaningful moat, especially for national-security applications where US-origin tech is mandated. HALEU represents additional upside as the majority of the reactors under the various DOE programs require it.

Goman's valuation framework assumes: 

• 3.5 million SWU initial facility (with ~25% HALEU mix over time)
• ~$7 billion cumulative CapEx
• $250/SWU long-term pricing
• 50% enrichment margins
• 10% discount rate
• 15x terminal multiple on FY35 EBITDA

Upside could come from accelerated federal support, manufacturing efficiencies at the Oak Ridge center, higher SWU prices, or faster HALEU commercialization. Downside risks include FOAK execution/cost overruns, funding delays, TENEX supply volatility through 2027, and potential equity dilution.
 

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 05:45

Britain Bets On Hydropower To Boost Energy Security

Authored by Felicity Bradstock via OilPrice.com,

• Britain has provisionally approved three major pumped storage hydropower projects in Scotland, the first of their kind in more than 40 years.

• Pumped storage facilities will act as large-scale energy storage systems, helping balance intermittent wind and solar generation.

• The projects are expected to improve energy security, reduce reliance on imported fossil fuels, and support the U.K.'s decarbonisation strategy.

After years of neglect, the United Kingdom has big plans for hydropower as part of broader plans for a green transition. The government is supporting the development of three large-scale hydro-storage projects as part of its plans to diversify the U.K. energy mix, support a green transition, and boost energy security.

Hydropower is one of the oldest and largest sources of renewable energy. It works by converting the energy of running water into electricity. Many hydropower projects rely on reservoirs created by dams to store large quantities of water and produce electricity as needed. Meanwhile, hydropower plants without reservoirs are typically called run-of-river power plants. In these types of facilities, production is controlled by the amount of water flowing past at any given time. Just four countries – China, Brazil, Canada, and the United States – produce roughly half of the world’s hydroelectricity.

The U.K. has been producing electricity from hydropower projects since the 1800s, and the energy source now contributes around 2 per cent of the country’s electricity generation. Two-thirds of hydropower-generated electricity is produced during the winter months. There are almost 1,700 hydropower schemes across the U.K. with an installed capacity of around 2 GW.

As part of plans for a green transition, the U.K. is expected to invest heavily in hydropower in the coming years. In October 2024, the U.K. government announced a new policy to promote investment in Long Duration Energy Storage (LDES) as part of the country’s decarbonisation plans.

The global demand for energy storage has risen dramatically in recent years, as many countries shift to less stable renewable energy sources to produce low-carbon power. LDES, also known as pumped hydropower storage (PHS), is a type of hydroelectric energy storage. It works by using two reservoirs at different heights to generate power by moving water from one to the other (discharging) as it passes through a turbine. The water can also be pumped back up to the higher reservoir (recharging) during off-peak electricity hours for reuse during peak demand. The system effectively functions as a massive battery, storing power for release as required.

The U.K. government aims to diversify the country’s energy mix to reduce reliance on fossil fuels and help strengthen energy security. Having invested heavily in intermittent clean energy sources, such as wind and solar power generation, it is looking to other energy sources, including hydro and geothermal power, to fill the gap.

There are currently four PSH schemes in the U.K., all of which were funded publicly from the 1960s to the 1980s to store overnight nuclear generation. By 2025, 11 PSH were under development across the U.K., with an expected combined power storage capacity of more than 10 GW and 200 GWh, or 25 per cent of the country’s power demand, once completed. A study from Imperial College London suggests that just 4.5 GW of new PHS with 90 GWh of storage could save up to £690 million a year in energy system costs by 2050. 

Last month, the U.K. energy regulator provisionally greenlit the first major new hydropower projects in over four decades, as part of plans to reduce the U.K.’s dependence on energy imports, in response to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and severe disruptions to energy supply chains. Three new PHS power stations will be developed in Northern Scotland, using the region’s famous lochs to supply hydropower, pending final approval.

Statera Energy’s Loch Kemp project will use water from Loch Ness, while SSE’s Coire Glas project will rely on water from Loch Lochy, which is situated between Fort William and Inverness. Meanwhile, Gilkes Energy’s Earba project, expected to be the U.K.’s largest pumped storage hydro facility, will pump water from both Loch Leamhain and Loch Earba.

The three projects are expected to be completed by the early 2030s and will be the first PHS power projects since the Dinorwig hydropower plant was completed in north Wales in 1984. Dinorwig, also known colloquially as the “electric mountain”, can generate enough electricity to power nearly 2 million homes in a matter of seconds.

The U.K. Energy Minister, Michael Shanks, stated, “Forty years after the country’s last pumped storage facility, this government is getting Britain building again. The lesson from the conflict in Iran is clear: Britain cannot afford to remain at the mercy of volatile fossil fuel markets and leave families exposed to the next price shock.”

The new hydropower projects are expected to enhance the reliability of Britain’s renewable energy and help the country reduce dependence on fossil fuels once and for all. They will help reduce reliance on energy imports, support the government’s goals for a green transition, and enhance energy security through diversification. PHS projects also provide an alternative to lithium-ion battery storage, helping reduce imports of raw materials and batteries from China.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 05:00

Ukraine Prime Minister's Shock Resignation Marks Start Of Broader Zelensky Cabinet Reshuffle

Ukrainian President Zelensky is undertaking a dramatic cabinet reshuffle, at a moment Kiev sees itself as having military momentum against Russia with its non-stop drone assaults on Russian energy sites.

The country's Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko has confirmed Sunday her shock resignation, which has come as a major surprise to many lawmakers and unleashed speculation about what's behind it. She has held the office since July 2025, and helped spearhead major reconstruction funding deals with the United States and Europe.

US Treasury image

Svyrydenko announced on social media she was "proud to have had the honor of leading the government during one of the most difficult periods in Ukraine’s modern history."

She further described that she discussed "next steps" with Zelensky but without providing any details. "I remain ready to serve the Ukrainian state and carry out every task aimed at strengthening Ukraine’s position, defending our national interests and bringing a just peace closer," she said.

According to a backgrounder on Svyrydenko:

Svyrydenko, Ukraine’s former economy minister, was named prime minister in July 2025 at the age of 39 after playing a lead role in securing a mineral agreement between Ukraine and the U.S., seen as an important way of tying U.S. interests to Ukraine’s security.

...He also said he had offered Svyrydenko the opportunity to lead “a new, important area” in Ukraine’s relations with a key international partner.

One unnamed Ukrainian lawmaker conceded to national media that "It's a strange situation" given that "Cabinet resignations are generally a last resort."

The official continued, "They're usually something you would expect in the fall, when the political season begins, and people expect some political changes, since there are no elections."

"Maybe there are some extraordinary reasons for the reshuffle... It looks like a preemptive move," the person added, while expressing that lawmakers sees no obvious reason behind the prime minister's removal.

Zelensky in a statement suggested a broader government overhaul is underway. "Ukraine is changing its political strategy."

Refusing to have an election but has announced more shake ups than the election he has had.

— бенедикт//Benedikt (@BenediktSuarez) July 12, 2026

"The Cabinet of Ministers needs to be renewed," Zelensky said. "Each priority area of foreign policy will be assigned to a specific person with substantial experience who is capable of implementing what we agree on at the leaders’ level and what the Ukrainian people expect," he described further of an impending reshuffle. Who is next on the chopping block?

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 04:15

The Big Lie: France Urged To Embrace Robotics Over Immigration

Via Remix News,

French political figure Éric Zemmour is arguing that robotics represents the true economic future of France, offering a technological solution to labor shortages in factories and farms rather than relying on mass immigration.

“Robotics is the economic future of France. Robots will provide our factories and our farmers with the arms they are missing. France can choose technology rather than migratory submersion through work. For an eternal, powerful, and sovereign France in modernity: more robots, fewer immigrants,” wrote Zemmour on X.

Zemmour’s post directly references an interview conducted by French outlet Le Journal du Dimanche with Éric Marchiol, Renault’s director of industrial metaverse and quality.

In the interview, Marchiol detailed Renault’s development of Calvin, a new humanoid robot created in partnership with French company Wandercraft. Designed for industrial environments, Calvin is compact, capable of handling heavy loads of up to 40 kilograms (88 pounds), and adaptable to real factory conditions — such as navigating uneven packaging or small steps on assembly lines.

Renault already operates around 11,000 traditional industrial robots and 8,000 autonomous guided vehicles. The Calvin robot represents the next generation: more flexible, intelligent, and space-efficient than older fixed-arm systems. The company is testing it for repetitive, physically demanding tasks like tire handling on fast-moving production lines.

Marchiol emphasized that robotization is essential for competitiveness: “Without automation and without robotization, there is no more competitive industry.” He noted France currently has about 190 robots per 10,000 workers — significantly behind China at 380 and Germany.

The goal, he said, is to deploy these humanoid robots widely across Renault and its suppliers within the next four to five years, targeting difficult-to-fill, physically strenuous jobs.

Robots over mass immigration

As Remix News has extensively reported over the last years, automation, robotics, and now artificial intelligence are increasingly seen as the primary solution to labor shortages, and mass immigration may even hinder the development of these technologies. Western employers, instead of developing this groundbreaking technology to work in factories and agriculture, are often still relying on human labor promised to them by Western liberal leaders. Often, this human labor comes with enormous welfare and cultural assimilation costs.

Zemmour, like many others, is pointing to this automation drive as the real solution to labor shortages. He wrote that Renault’s initiative as proof that France can solve its industrial labor gaps through innovation instead of large-scale immigration.

Remix News has run a series entitled “the big immigration lie” detailing the shift in thinking on immigration, with the Asian countries serving as the main counter example to Europe’s present course of open borders. Instead of embracing cheap labor and millions of culturally alien immigrants, Asian countries like Japan, China, South Korea, and Taiwan have focused on their native populations and implementing harsh immigration restrictions.

These Asians countries now lead in many areas over Europe, including AI, robotics, renewable energies, electric cars, and automation technology in factories.

Larry Fink, the CEO of BlackRock and arguably one of the most powerful men on the planet, openly said last year that the countries with xenophobic immigration policies are going to have a higher standard of living, faster productivity growth, and will be better able to accommodate the social impact of artificial intelligence advances over the coming years.

“You know, we always used to think shrinking population is a cause for negative growth. But in my conversations with the leadership of these large developed countries that have xenophobic immigration policies, they don’t allow anybody to come in, shrinking unemployment, excuse me, shrinking demographics. These countries will rapidly develop robotics and AI and technology. And if the promise, I didn’t say it’s going to happen, but as a promise of all that transforms productivity, which most of us think it will, we’ll be able to elevate the standard of living of countries and the standard of living of individuals even with shrinking populations,” said Fink.

“And so the paradigm of negative population growth is going to be changing. And the social problems that one will have in substituting humans for machines is going to be far easier in those countries that have declining populations,” he said.

When Fink talks about xenophobic countries, he is talking about countries like South Korea, China, and Japan, where robotics and AI are being used to deal with the demographic situation instead of mass immigration. 

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 03:30

How Global Population Growth Is Slowing

According to UN calculations, the world's population will cross the 10-billion mark in 2061.

However, as Statista's Katharina Buchholz reports, by the end of the century, this number will have started to decline slightly, having reached a high around 10.3 billion in 2084. Leading up to this reversal, the growth of the global populace has actually been slowing down for decades, as seen in numbers by the UN Population Division. The organization celebrated World Population Day on Saturday.

You will find more infographics at Statista

While the above figures are according to the UN's medium scenario of moderate fertility, a case where global birth rates sink even more drastically would result in a reversal of population growth already around the early 2060s, at a high of just under 10 billion people on Earth.

This would result in a world population around 9 billion again by the end of the century.

Some academics believe that a global population decline at an even faster rate is possible. According to an widely cited article in medical journal The Lancet published in 2020, the world population is expected at 8.8 billion in 2100, comparable to the UN's low-fertility scenario. In case of rapid global development, the reseachers believe it could be as low as 6.3 billion by that time.

The number of people in the world exceeded 8 billion for the first time on November 15, 2022, according to UN calculations.

This was more than three times as many as in 1950. The rapid growth of the past was due to the gradual increase in life expectancy as a result of improvements in healthcare, nutrition, personal hygiene and medicine. It was also the result of high and consistent birth rates in some countries, for example China and India.

At present, the country adding most people to the world population is still India, while African countries like the Central African Republic, Chad and Somalia have the highest birth rates.

By contrast, the list of countries with the fastest population decline is dominated by eastern and southeastern European states, which have to contend with high emigration figures due to the wage and development gap with western Europe as well as falling birth rates.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 02:45