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Only 35% Of Women Under-25 Have Positive View Of Men; Survey Finds 'Heteroflexible' Is The Fastest Growing Sexual Orientation In America

Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

Our culture is being transformed at a pace that is difficult to comprehend. The numbers that I am going to share with you in this article paint an undeniable picture about where our society is heading. That doesn’t mean that the trends that we are witnessing now are permanent. We have been through so many societal pivot points in recent decades, and it is probably inevitable that there will be more. But without a doubt there have been some very clear long-term cultural shifts that have radically changed how we relate to one another and to the world around us.

Earlier today, I came across a survey about how men and women view each other that absolutely shocked me…

As expected, we found that there are significant divides between young men and young women – but they are not just confined to political views. Gen Z women are more left wing than their male peers when it comes to politics and economics. This generation of women is also much more pessimistic about the country and their own lives than men, and substantially more negative towards men than the men are towards women. Seventy-two per cent of men under 30 say they have a positive view of the opposite gender, compared with just 50 per cent of women of the same age. Thirty-eight per cent of men say they feel “very positively” towards women, while only 18 per cent of women say the same about men. This trend is particularly pronounced among women under 25, of whom just 35 per cent feel positively towards men.

Read that last sentence again.

The survey discovered that only 35 percent of women under the age of 25 have a positive view of men.

How is that even possible?

This survey was conducted in the UK, but I am sure that it would have produced similar results if it had been conducted in the United States.

As I thought about this, it occurred to me that what we are witnessing is likely the result of decades of conditioning.

Men are almost always the villains in our movies and television shows.

When a family is depicted on screen, it is almost always the father that is the problem.

And even in our commercials, men and women are characterized very differently.

Once you become aware of this phenomenon, you will literally see it everywhere.

These days, much of the population considers men (especially young men) to be threats unless proven otherwise, while most women are considered to be trustworthy unless proven otherwise.

Of course it is undeniable that our society is absolutely teeming with criminal predators at this point, and if you trust the wrong person you and your family could get hurt very badly.

The thin veneer of civilization that we all rely on is disintegrating all around us, and that is a terrible thing.

Meanwhile, our values regarding sex and sexuality are rapidly changing.

According to the most recent Gallup poll on the matter, 9 percent of U.S. adults now identify as LGBTQ+…

Gallup finds 9.0% of U.S. adults identifying as lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, or something other than straight or heterosexual in 2025. The percentage has more than doubled since Gallup first measured LGBTQ+ identification in 2012.

That is quite a high number, but the real story is what is occurring among our young adults.

According to that same poll, 23 percent of U.S. adults under the age of 30 now identify as LGBTQ+…

Young adults are far more likely than older adults to identify as LGBTQ+. Twenty-three percent of adults under 30 and 10.4% of adults aged 30 to 49 are LGBTQ+, compared with about 2% to 3% of older Americans.

I was curious, and so I had Google create a graph that shows how this number has changed since Gallup began asking this question in 2012.

The results were staggering…

The percentage of U.S. adults under the age of 30 that identify as LGBTQ+ has nearly quadrupled since 2012.

That is not just a trend.

That is a tsunami.

And there is a huge gender gap.

Only 11.4 percent of men under the age of 30 identify as LGBTQ+, but a whopping 31.4 percent of women under the age of 30 do…

Women are nearly twice as likely as men to identify as LGBTQ+ (10.5% vs. 5.6%, respectively), a gap driven primarily by women’s higher rates of bisexual identification. Gender gaps are especially pronounced in the youngest generation — 31.4% of women aged 18 to 29 versus 11.4% of men in the same age group identify as LGBTQ+, with most of these younger women saying they are bisexual.

Nearly a third of all women in the United States under the age of 30 now identify as LGBTQ+.

That may help to explain the survey results that I discussed at the beginning of this article.

And the vast majority of Americans that identify as LGBTQ+ consider themselves to be bisexual…

Bisexual adults make up the largest share of the LGBTQ+ population at 58.6%, equivalent to 5.3% of all U.S. adults. Beyond that, 17.4% of LGBTQ+ adults say they are gay, 16.0% identify as lesbian, and 12.1% say they are transgender, all ranging between 1% and 2% of U.S. adults overall.

This is a point that is often lost when people debate these issues.

Bisexual adults make up the biggest portion of the LGBTQ+ population by a very wide margin.

But now another segment is rapidly growing.

The number of Americans that consider themselves to be “heteroflexible” has been absolutely exploding.

If you are not familiar with “heteroflexibility”, the following explanation comes from Health.com…

Heteroflexibility is a sexual orientation that describes people who are primarily heterosexual but occasionally experience attraction to people of the same sex, according to Debra Laino, DHSc, a clinical sexologist and relationship therapist in Delaware.

People who are mostly attracted to a different gender but also feel some attraction to the same gender fit the definition of heteroflexible.

“Heteroflexible, like most labels, means different things to different people,” Casey Tanner, a clinical sex therapist in Chicago, told Health. “It comes up most of the time when a person identifies as mainly straight with a slight propensity towards queerness in certain circumstances.”

For most of my adult life, I had never even heard of this term.

But according to the New York Post, experts believe that 15 percent of the U.S. population is now “heteroflexible”…

It is estimated that a staggering 15% of the US population — that’s 50 to 55 million Americans — now identifies as heteroflexible.

Those numbers seem high to me.

I have a hard time imagining that there are 50 million “heteroflexibles” out there.

But of course the dating world is far different now than when I was young.

One dating app is actually reporting that the number of their users that identify as “heteroflexible” increased by 193 percent in just one year…

Feeld, a dating app for those seeking alternative relationship structures, recently released its annual Raw report, providing a look at the preferences that shape contemporary intimacy. According to the findings, heteroflexibility is the fastest-growing sexuality, with the number of practitioners skyrocketing by 193% over the past year.

Clearly this is a label that is gaining a tremendous amount of steam.

Nobody can deny that America is a completely different place than it was 50 years ago.

And it would be completely and utterly unrecognizable to our founders.

So much can change in just one generation.

The young adults of today are the future of our society, and that has enormous implications for all of us.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/25/2026 - 16:20

Amazon's New Warehouses May Process Packages 2.5 Times Faster With Far Fewer Workers

Amazon is developing a new warehouse concept aimed at automating one of the most stubbornly manual parts of online retail: preparing a chaotic mix of packages for the final trip to customers’ homes, according to Business Insider.

Known internally as Project Tetromino, the proposed facilities would sit at the end of Amazon’s logistics network. Packages would arrive from fulfillment centers and then be sorted, temporarily stored, placed in delivery order and staged for drivers with far less human involvement than at current delivery stations. The name appears to reference the geometric pieces in Tetris, an appropriate metaphor for the difficult task of arranging parcels of different shapes and sizes into limited storage space and delivery vans.

According to an internal planning document reviewed by Business Insider, Amazon had considered spending $103 million on a pilot facility in 2028, followed by five additional stations in 2029 and another 10 in 2030. The five facilities planned for 2029 were estimated to cost roughly $85 million each, which would take the project’s cumulative investment beyond $530 million by the end of that year. The proposed system was expected to handle packages at approximately 2.5 times the rate of Amazon’s existing delivery-station design.

Insider writes that one possible component of the project is technology from Boxbot, an AI-powered logistics robotics company. Its system takes packages from conveyor belts, moves them into storage trays and then uses software to arrange their release in the sequence needed for delivery. Boxbot says this approach can make the vehicle-loading stage as much as 10 times faster, although that is the company’s own performance claim and is not necessarily Amazon’s projection for Tetromino as a whole.

The concept forms part of Amazon’s much broader effort to automate its shipping network. The company has already said it expects to more than double the number of robotic arms it operates during 2026. Other logistics companies are moving in the same direction: FedEx is using AI-equipped Dexterity robots to load trailers, while UPS and DHL have deployed robotic systems for unloading freight.

Amazon cautioned that Tetromino remains an early-stage idea, however.

A spokesperson confirmed that the company continues to test technologies intended to improve safety and the customer experience, but disputed the reported spending estimates and construction schedule, saying the figures in the internal document no longer reflected its current plans. So while the project offers a window into Amazon’s automation ambitions, the proposed investment and rollout should be treated as preliminary rather than settled.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/25/2026 - 15:40

Washington Backs Brazil's Serra Verde Mine In $1.55 Billion Rare-Earth Push

The U.S. Department of War has announced a $750 million investment aimed at securing long-term supplies of critical rare-earth elements from Serra Verde’s Pela Ema mine in central Brazil, as Washington accelerates efforts to reduce its dependence on China for strategically important minerals, according to a DOW press release out this week. 

The investment, announced Aug. 24 through the department’s Economic Defense Unit and Industrial Base Analysis and Sustainment program, will support an offtake agreement for mixed rare-earth carbonates produced by Serra Verde. It forms part of a broader $1.55 billion financing and purchasing structure that also includes a $300 million commitment from the Defense Logistics Agency and $500 million from a major commercial bank.

The release says that the agreement is intended to give the U.S. and its allies more reliable access to dysprosium, terbium, neodymium and praseodymium.

These elements are crucial inputs for high-performance permanent magnets used across advanced defense systems, including fighter aircraft, nuclear submarines, guided missiles, satellites and drones. They are also increasingly important to electric transportation, energy infrastructure, aerospace and electronics.

China currently dominates several stages of the global rare-earth supply chain, particularly processing and magnet manufacturing. U.S. officials have consequently made the development of alternative “mine-to-magnet” supply chains a national-security and industrial-policy priority.

“By partnering with Serra Verde, we are taking a decisive step to break our adversaries’ near-monopoly on rare-earth elements,” Assistant Secretary of War for Industrial Base Policy Mike Cadenazzi said in the announcement.

The latest commitment follows a separate $565 million financing agreement for Serra Verde’s Pela Ema project through the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation. Together with efforts by the Department of Commerce to expand domestic magnet manufacturing, the investments point to a broader strategy: securing raw materials from allied and partner countries while building enough processing and manufacturing capacity to keep strategically important supply chains outside Chinese control.

If successful, the Serra Verde initiative could become an important piece of that strategy. Rather than simply funding additional mineral production, Washington is using financing, government purchasing commitments and private capital to create guaranteed demand for a non-Chinese source of rare earths, helping underpin an alternative supply chain from the mine through to the advanced magnets used in both military and commercial technologies.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/25/2026 - 15:20

Trump Says All Mines Cleared From Strait Of Hormuz, Warns Military Options Still On Table

President Trump took to Truth Social on Tuesday to declare that all mines have been removed from the Strait of Hormuz - it what seems yet another attempt to declare all is well at a moment Washington has shifted from prior military operations to an economic 'strangulation' and siege policy targeting the Islamic Republic.

“I have just been informed by the United States Navy that all mines have been removed and/or detonated from within the International Waters of the Strait of Hormuz,” the President wrote on Tuesday. "Iran has been notified that any ship or boat placing new mines will be immediately and systematically destroyed. There is a Zero Tolerance policy on mine placement in full force and effect."

So while there is a temporary calm for now, also with Iran not having targeted foreign vessels in at least the last couple days, Trump is essentially saying military options remain on the table.

Below is the text of the full Truth Social Post [emphasis ZH]:

I have just been informed by the United States Navy that all mines have been removed and/or detonated from within the International Waters of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has been notified that any ship or boat placing new mines will be immediately and systematically destroyed. Through Space Force, we are watching every square inch of the Strait, as we are, also, with Pickaxe Mountain and the already destroyed three other Nuclear sites. There is a Zero Tolerance policy on mine placement in full force and effect. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

US officials along with reports in Axios and other outlets have touted US Navy assistance for a steady small 'stealth' stream of tankers still transiting the Strait each day with fighter jet monitoring operations near the Omani coastline.

Axios claimed for example that last week 15 million barrels of oil exited the waterway on a single day.

But some maritime monitor organizations and pundits remain skeptical, and the situation is muddied given that many ships must turn off their transponders if they choose to risk the passage, which for months has been subject to attack by Iranian drones and missiles.

This summer, for the first time in history, Trump threatened to bomb Muscat over negotiations with Tehran, given Iran has asserted that the Oman-brokered Hormuz management plan cuts the US out of the process.

Trump told Fox News journalist Trey Yingst: "If Oman gets in the way, we’ll bomb the sh*t out of them."

We have two different things being said (again):

1. POTUS: "all mines have been removed and/or detonated from within the International Waters of the Strait of Hormuz"https://t.co/A3Wfjn91KI

2. JMIC: "Navigation interference persists, and mine-risk reporting remains relevant… https://t.co/CtajLe21Vq pic.twitter.com/N8Q1d56z8R

— Charlie B (@supbrow) August 25, 2026

Coupled with this is Bessent's rollout on Monday of details of an economic 'D-Day' against Iran, saying that the country will be completely isolated from the world economy, and threatening secondary sanctions against any third party country that doesn't comply.

The big question remains whether Washington would actually go after China over violation of the new Iran restrictions, especially given China's President Xi Jinping is set to be hosted at the White House, just weeks away.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/25/2026 - 14:40

Here's How AI Is Impacting America's Mental Health Crisis

Authored by Autumn Spredemann via The Epoch Times,

When Americans are feeling down, instead of calling a mental health professional, a growing number are reaching for their keyboards. Artificial intelligence chatbots have become confidantes, sounding boards, and even substitutes for therapists. Some say this could have a significant impact on the U.S. mental health crisis.

This shift is unfolding against the backdrop of a substantial mental health burden in the United States. An American Psychiatric Association poll revealed 62 percent of respondents reported high levels of anxiety. Meanwhile, the online mental health care provider Innerwell revealed that more than 61 million U.S. adults reported a mental health condition in 2024.

Almost half of them did not receive any treatment.

So what happens when the 24-hour availability of AI chatbots steps into the treatment void? Well, some care providers say that the outcome will be a mixed bag on its best day.

Others think the habit of turning to AI for mental health support will eventually change the nature of human relationships.

"People are increasingly outsourcing emotional labor - flirting, apologizing, repairing, expressing vulnerability - to AI," Luis Maimoni, a licensed marriage and family therapist, told The Epoch Times.

Maimoni said AI chatbots can feel supportive, but also take the "human out of human relationships."

"Some people do form attachments to chatbots, but that's not the part that worries me most. The bigger issue is population-wide: when enough people stop practicing relationship skills, those skills naturally fade," he said.

In his experience, Maimoni said turning to AI chatbots for comfort affects couples, families, and kids. He also believes this will eventually take a toll on the next generation.

"If we lose our ability to connect with each other and the world around us, we lose one of the things that makes us most human," he cautioned.

Maimoni's concerns are supported by the fast-growing trend of supplementing human interactions with AI in difficult situations. In a survey of more than 1,200 licensed psychologists, researchers at the American Psychological Association found that 39 percent of care providers have discussions with patients who use AI to self-diagnose.

The same study noted that 35 percent of care providers' patients were using AI as an "additional mental health professional."

Echo Chamber Effect

On the one hand, professional care providers say AI could offer new ways to reach people who lack access to traditional treatment. However, the technology's expanding role with nuanced, even intimate conversations with human operators also comes with considerable risks.

"One of the most important distinctions in mental health care is the difference between validation and agreement. As a therapist, I might tell a client that I understand why an experience felt frightening without agreeing that their interpretation of what happened is necessarily accurate," Dr. Susan Johnston told The Epoch Times.

Johnston is a Florida-based, licensed mental health counselor and the founder of Human AI Dynamics. She said good clinical work often involves "validating the emotion" of a patient while leaving room for reality testing, uncertainty, and other explanations.

She pointed out that, for the moment, most AI chatbots don't operate with this level of discernment.

"A chatbot can sometimes blur that distinction because maintaining a supportive conversation may result in repeatedly mirroring the user's interpretation back to them," she said. "For someone who is already vulnerable, the response can begin to feel like independent confirmation."

Consequently, if a person is struggling with a mental health condition, they may end up drawing the conclusion "even the AI agrees with me," according to Johnston.

"Something designed to make a person feel heard can then unintentionally strengthen a belief that might instead need to be questioned or explored more carefully," she said.

Dr. Michelle Harris, a licensed social worker and doctor of behavioral health, shares this perspective.

"One concern is that prolonged chatbot use can create a kind of closed feedback loop," Harris told The Epoch Times.

Harris has more than 20 years of experience in mental wellness and is the founder of Anew Health Solutions. She said someone who is already experiencing paranoia, delusional thinking, mania, severe depression, or suicidal thoughts may return to the same fears or beliefs repeatedly. AI could then continue reinforcing that framework instead of recognizing that someone's mental state is spiraling.

"A clinician is assessing much more than the words someone says. We are considering history, behavior, functioning, risk, changes over time, nonverbal cues, medication, sleep, support systems, and whether a person's interpretation of reality appears to be changing. A general-purpose chatbot does not have that full clinical picture," she explained.

Harris added mental health organizations have specifically cautioned that AI tools may engage "unsafely with vulnerable users."

"If someone says, 'I believe people are following me and I am terrified,' I can acknowledge that the fear feels very real and frightening without agreeing that people are actually following them. In mental-health care, compassionate support sometimes has to exist alongside gentle challenge, further assessment, or reality testing," she said.

A May study published in the Journal of Behavioral Addictions supports these concerns. The researchers stated clinical observations point to a link between intensive chatbot use and psychiatric destabilization in vulnerable individuals.

"For someone with a vulnerable mind, a delusion or a hallucination is a very real part of their reality and an extremely dangerous part," Dr. Michael J. Zizmor, founder of Zizmor Mental Health, told The Epoch Times.

Zizmor said the "engagement-validation loop" perpetuated by an AI system may, in some cases, fuel delusions and gaslight a user into believing in something that a human companion would've pushed back on.

"The danger is compounded by the bots' extremely humanlike and available nature, which may lead delusions to be reinforced, grandiose delusions to be magnified, feelings of hopelessness and worthlessness to become overwhelming, an unwillingness to take prescribed medications to occur, or to engage in dangerous behaviors," Zizmor said.

Meanwhile, AI advocates say chatbots could play a telehealth-style support role for those who are struggling with certain mental health conditions. They argue chatbots could be particularly useful given the worsening shortage of healthcare workers in the United States.

As of 2026, around 130 million Americans live in areas with a shortage of mental health professionals.

Some believe AI can help close the gap between supportive care needs and availability amid America's ongoing shortage of qualified human counselors.

"With these developments, rigorously tested AI chatbots are an underappreciated solution to the shortage of therapists and may help address key challenges in mental health care: access, affordability, and the delivery of consistent, empathetic care," researchers at the Milbank Memorial Fund stated.

Old Problems, New Approach

Johnston believes a cautious strategy is needed with AI chatbots used for mental health support, but also thinks the technology could be beneficial under the right circumstances.

She believes this matters more than many realize because of the U.S. healthcare system's longstanding struggles with provider shortages, cost, insurance barriers, and potentially lengthy wait times to see a therapist.

"If AI helps some people cope, seek help earlier, or maintain gains between appointments, there could be a meaningful public-health benefit; if another group becomes more isolated, experiences worsening symptoms, or delays professional care, that could add pressure to an already strained system. At this scale, I don't think we can evaluate AI only by asking what happens to the average user; we also have to understand what happens to the smaller groups of users who may be particularly vulnerable," she said.

Harris agreed that mental health support in the United States is a "very real issue" due to workforce shortages, and AI might be helpful on this front.

"AI has tremendous potential as an adjunct," Harris said. "Someone might use it to organize their thoughts before an appointment, learn basic coping strategies, identify questions to ask a provider, or receive general information while waiting for care. Research involving a purpose-built generative-AI therapeutic chatbot has shown promising symptom improvements, which tells us there may be meaningful opportunities here."

That said, she clarified there's a big difference between a clinically developed and studied intervention and using a general-purpose chatbot as a therapist.

Zizmor, Harris, and Johnston firmly agree that AI isn't creating a national mental health crisis in its own right, but rather throwing a can of gas on the existing one.

From Zizmor's perspective, he believes AI is an amplifier, not a root cause. He thinks the outcome of the technology's use in mental health support depends entirely on the circumstances of the person using it. He said AI's use in this capacity should be regulated "not as an independent replacement for healthcare professionals, but rather as an addition under their supervision."

Harris concurred. "AI may help bridge certain gaps. But the danger is when the bridge becomes the destination."

For Johnston, the rise of chatbot popularity as a mental health crutch heralds an opportunity to look at the deeper issue.

"Rather than only asking whether people are becoming too attached to AI, I think we also need to ask what the AI is providing that the person was not getting somewhere else and why that need went unmet," Johnston said.

"The answer may tell us as much about the weaknesses in America's existing mental-health system as it does about artificial intelligence."

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/25/2026 - 14:20

Netanyahu Claims 'Iran Tried To Assassinate One Of My Sons'

Previously, Iranian state media aired images which appeared to threaten President Donald Trump's son Barron Trump, and following this Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears to be seizing the moment.

Netanyahu has claimed in a phone interview with Israel's Channel 14 on Monday that Iran tried to assassinate one of his two sons. "Iran targeted one of my sons. Iran tried to kill, to murder one of my sons," he claimed.

GPO/Flash90

"Therefore, the security they get is not a luxury," he added, in reference to his argument that the state must continue protecting his family for years to come - even if he loses the upcoming election.

He described that without this protection for at least five years, "they would succeed," referencing imagined would-be Iranian assassins.

Netanyahu has two sons, Yair and Avner, but he didn't specify if one or the other was under threat by an alleged assassination plot.

Avner lives in Israel, while Yair - the one who is much more visible and outspoken on social media - lives in a luxury area of Miami.

Israeli media further claims as follows: "A Channel 12 report says the alleged attempt took place at a time when Yair Netanyahu was not in Israel, but does not specify that Yair was the target."

The report also seeks to address why this is suddenly being "revealed" now:

The alleged assassination plot has been known to the Israeli security establishment for several months, the TV report says, but has been barred from publication by the military censor.

Israel has tended to push 'assassination plot' claims while offering no public evidence and at opportune times which seemed aimed at escalating Washington's involvement against Iran.

For example, back in July when Netanyahu was openly pushing against White House efforts to pursue a negotiated settlement with Tehran there was this:

Israel shared intelligence with the United States that Iran had recently devised a new plan to assassinate President Donald Trump, two sources familiar with the matter told CNN, adding another layer of tension as a ceasefire deal between the countries comes under strain.

One of the sources said the warning came this week. Another source said the US had picked up a steady drumbeat of intelligence in recent weeks about possible plans to assassinate Trump, but the warning from Israel was new and concerned a specific plot.

At the time, the White House did not seem too alarmed by the 'warning' - and hasn't made much reference to it since.

In the opening days and weeks of Operation Epic Fury, literally dozens of top Iranian government and military officials were assassinated - and in some cases their family members died in the same attacks. Israel's military owned up to many of these operations, boasting publicly during the height of the bombing campaign. 

This new claim by Netanyahu of covert plot against his family also comes just as Bessent unveiled a so-called Economic D-Day policy to strangle the Islamic Republic economically.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/25/2026 - 14:00

"All Accurate": Musk Confirms Massive New Starship Rocket Base In Louisiana

Our report from several weeks ago, titled "SpaceX In 'Final Stages' Of Securing Massive New Rocket Launch Site In Louisiana," was confirmed Tuesday afternoon by Elon Musk and his rocket company.

"Starbase, Louisiana, will be built to support thousands of Starship flights a year, with missions launching to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars, and beyond," SpaceX wrote on X.

Starbase, Louisiana will be built to support thousands of Starship flights a year with missions launching to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars, and beyond pic.twitter.com/SE6gyNZWBK

— SpaceX (@SpaceX) August 25, 2026

Musk also chimed in, saying reports about the new $100 billion spaceport near Pecan Island, Louisiana, were "all accurate."

All accurate https://t.co/FkmQCEoS0i

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 25, 2026

Let's come back to our Aug. 3 report, in which we cited the Times-Picayune:

SpaceX is poised to take control of roughly 130,000 acres at Pecan Island, more specifically in coastal Vermilion Parish, as part of a settlement resolving long-running coastal lawsuits against ExxonMobil. Gov. Jeff Landry is expected to announce the agreement this month.

One X user responded to Musk's post: "This is unironically the biggest thing to happen to Louisiana since the Louisiana Purchase."

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/25/2026 - 13:40

Stellar 2Y Auction Stops Through On Most Foreign Buying Since March 2025

After last week's post "Bessent buyback" fireworks, which sent yields on a rollercoaster ride in the subsequent days, many were very curious to see how today's sale of $69BN in 2 year paper, the week's first coupon auction, would go and whether Bessent inadvertently had impaired primary market issuance. In the end, the auction went through without a glitch.

The $69BN auction of 2Y notes priced at a high yield of 4.204%, down notably from 4.315% last month as rate hike odds have eased substantially, and stopped through the When Issued 4.208% by 0.4bps, the 3rd consecutive stopping through auction in a row.

The bid to cover was an unspectacular 2.599, down from 2.662 in July and the lowest since March (it was below the 2.611 recent average).

The internals were stronger with Indirects awarded 66.0%, up from 56.6% and the highest allocation to foreign buyers since March 2025. Directs dropped to 23.09% from 34.05%, the lowest since March, which left 10.9% for Dealers the second lowest since February. 

Overall, this was a stellar 2Y auction and one would hardly have guessed that the bond market had gone through the most turmoil of 2026 just a few days earlier.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/25/2026 - 13:23

Guggenheim Loan Craters, Fund Hits GFC Lows As Feds Probe Walter's Empire

A first-lien loan due in 2031 tied to Guggenheim Investments, the asset-management arm of Mark Walter's Guggenheim Partners, cratered to roughly 72 cents on the dollar Monday, according to Bloomberg data. The hefty discount suggests that lenders remain unconvinced by management's efforts to contain mounting fears over deteriorating earnings, accounting practices and ongoing federal investigations into Walter's financial empire.

The $1.18 billion loan, issued by GIH Borrower LLC, dropped to a low of 72 cents on the dollar Monday morning. 

Walter's Guggenheim Partners reported a 38% year-over-year decline in second-quarter revenue last week. Management told investors that much of the deterioration was attributable to delays in recognizing advisory fees at Guggenheim Private Investments.

Shares of the Guggenheim Strategic Opportunities Fund are crashing to their lowest level since the Global Financial Crisis.

The loan market, however, appears to be delivering some bad news. Because Walter's businesses are privately held, the declining value of Guggenheim's loan offers investors a real-time indicator of concerns surrounding how Delaware Life Insurance Co. and its affiliate, Clear Spring Life and Annuity, two Group 1001 insurers, labeled about $20 billion in loans to companies within Walter's empire.

The insurers reclassified billions of dollars in investments as affiliated or related-party transactions after receiving grand jury subpoenas and conducting internal reviews. Lending to affiliates is not illegal, but it must be properly disclosed.

Related:

1. FBI Seized Mark Walter's Devices Months Before Record $12.5 Billion Lakers Sale

2. "Cash Crunch" Deepens? Mark Walter Explores Chelsea FC Stake Sale To Clearlake

3. Mark Walter Probe Puts Wall Street's Insurance-Private Credit Machine Under DoJ Scrutiny

CNBC reported that Walter's TWG Global holding company has tapped veteran Goldman Sachs lawyer David Markowitz to serve as its chief legal officer amid the federal probe.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/25/2026 - 13:20

Treasury, IRS Propose Rules On Trump Account Investments

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The Department of the Treasury and the IRS have issued proposed regulations clarifying which investments may be made by Trump Accounts.

President Donald Trump speaks during the Trump Accounts summit at the Andrew W. Mellon Auditorium in Washington on Jan. 28, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

A Trump Account is a savings account designed to help children get a head start on financial wellness. It can be opened in the name of any individual younger than 18 with a valid Social Security number.

Funds in these accounts can only be invested in "eligible investments" during the growth period, referring to the period beginning from setting up the Trump Account to Dec. 31 of the calendar year in which the beneficiary becomes 17 years of age, the IRS said in an Aug. 20 statement. After the growth period, these eligible investment restrictions won't apply.

An eligible investment is either a mutual fund or an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks the returns of a qualified index, according to the proposed rule notice published by the IRS on Aug. 21 in the Federal Register.

A qualified index means the S&P 500 index or any other index composed of equity investments in mainly U.S. companies and for which regulated futures contracts are traded on an exchange or board of trade.

Indexes that solely focus on specific sectors or industries won't be deemed a qualified index, the notice clarified. However, indexes based on companies' market capitalization can qualify.

A mutual fund or ETF must not use leverage in order to qualify as an eligible investment, according to the proposal. They must also not have annual fees and expenses of more than 0.1 percent of the investment balance.

Around 85 million children from 44 million families across the United States are expected to be impacted by the proposed regulations, the notice said.

In its statement, the IRS said that if an account beneficiary does not select an eligible investment offered by the account's trustee-institutions managing the accounts-then the funds will automatically be invested in eligible investments selected by the trustee during the growth period.

The Treasury and the IRS are seeking comments on the proposed rules, which are due by Oct. 20. The regulations, once in effect, will apply to tax years starting on or after Jan. 1, 2026.

"These proposed regulations will provide clarity for trustees and beneficiaries of Trump Accounts, thus encouraging eligible participants to invest in low-fee mutual funds and ETFs that will grow on a tax-deferred basis potentially over their entire lives," IRS Chief Executive Officer Frank J. Bisignano said in the statement.

"Funds deposited in Trump Accounts enable American children to start investing now and enjoy years of compound earnings for their future college, retirement and other needs."

Account Investments

According to estimates on the Trump Account website, $1,000 deposited at the time of a child's birth could grow to $6,000 by the time the child turns 18, even if no additional contributions are made.

If $250 is contributed annually, the fund could grow to $19,000. Under the maximum $5,000 annual contribution, the fund value could reach $271,000 at age 18.

In early July, the White House said that almost 6 million Trump Accounts had been opened.

In an Aug. 20 statement, the Treasury said the proposed regulations aim to keep investment costs low and help children's savings grow over the long term.

Investment fees and expenses can reduce account balances over time. The proposed rules limit investments to funds with low expense ratios and avoid those with excessive fees.

"Every dollar in a child's Trump Account should be working toward that child's financial future, not diminished by unnecessary fees," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in the statement.

"Under President Trump's leadership, Treasury is putting simple, commonsense protections in place to help families keep more of their investment returns."

In a July 1 statement, the Treasury announced that the State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF would be the default investment for all contributions to Trump Accounts.

Parents or guardians of Trump Accounts can choose to invest funds in four additional low-cost index ETF options-iShares Core S&P 500 ETF, Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF, State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 1500 Composite Stock Market ETF, and iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/25/2026 - 13:00

Ghislaine Maxwell To Rot In Prison After Judge Denies Bid For New Trial

Jeffrey Epstein accomplice Ghislaine Maxwell gets to rot in prison until 2037 after a judge on Tuesday denied her bid to overturn her sex trafficking conviction and hold a new trial. 

"Nearly all its claims are procedurally barred; the overwhelming testimonial and documentary evidence adduced at trial conclusively established her guilt; and her petition's claims are demonstrably meritless, and generally based on speculation, distortions, and/or outright falsehoods," Judge Paul A. Engelmayer of the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York said in the 67-page decision.

"There is no fact that Maxwell fairly puts in dispute that has any potential to disturb the outcome of her trial."

Maxwell, 64, was Jeffrey Epstein's right-hand, who procured minor girls for prostitution. She faced multiple other charges when Epstein died in prison in 2019, stemming from her activities between 1994 and at least 2004, according to documents and other evidence introduced at her trial.

As the Epoch Times notes further, Maxwell was convicted in 2021 of participating in a conspiracy with Epstein that targeted minors for illegal sex acts. She is serving a 20-year prison sentence.

A federal appeals court in 2024 upheld the sentence, and the Supreme Court in 2025 denied Maxwell's request to review that ruling.

Maxwell said, in a petition filed under Section 2255 of the U.S. Code to overturn her conviction, that the release of materials following the appeal process should result in her conviction being vacated, including a transcript of testimony given to a grand jury in 2006 by a police detective who investigated Epstein.

The detective said then, according to the transcript, that a massage table was in a bathroom. Maxwell said that the detective testified that it was the north bathroom, which was different from the south bathroom he had identified at her trial.

The detective did not actually specify a bathroom in the 2006 testimony, though, the judge said in the new ruling.

Even if he had offered conflicting testimony as to the location of the massage table, Maxwell did not show that it would have been perjury rather than an inadvertent mistake.

"And had there been such an inconsistency between Detective Parkinson's 2006 and 2021 testimony as to this particular, such would have been highly unlikely to impeach Detective Parkinson's credibility, given that the search had occurred more than 16 years before his trial testimony, and his testimony in general, and about finding the massage table in the house in particular, was corroborated by other testimonial, documentary, and video evidence," the judge said.

That means it would not have had "a material effect on the outcome of the trial," he said.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/25/2026 - 12:45

"Going Through Some Pain": Dick's Smashed Most On Record As Foot Locker Bet Goes Limp

Dick's Sporting Goods shares crashed by the most on record Tuesday after the sporting goods retailer slashed its annual sales and adjusted operating-income forecasts, as softness at recently acquired Foot Locker deepened concerns about the $2.4 billion takeover.

"We're going to go through some pain," Chairman Ed Stack told analysts on an earnings call.

Dick's now expects fiscal-year net sales of $21.9 billion to $22.2 billion, below its previous forecast of $22.1 billion to $22.4 billion, as deteriorating sales at Foot Locker offset continued strength at its core stores.

The divergence was alarming: Foot Locker's pro forma comparable sales fell 3.6% in the second quarter, while comparable sales at Dick's stores rose nearly 5%.

Notably, Foot Locker's core shoppers are young men aged 12 to 25 who buy premium sneakers and athletic apparel. These shoppers tend to be more value-conscious and somewhat lower-income. So, with national gasoline prices remaining well above $4 per gallon, cutting back on sneakers could be one of their first moves.

"As the quarter progressed, conditions across portions of the athletic footwear and apparel marketplace became increasingly promotional, and we took action to remain competitively priced to protect and grow our leadership position. This environment had a more significant impact on the Foot Locker Business given its greater exposure to legacy footwear silhouettes and greater dependence on footwear launch and retro product. Not only were there fewer launches in the second quarter, but those launches performed below both industry and our expectations. As a result, we are taking a more cautious view of the balance of the year," Stack said.

Dick's shares crashed nearly 28% during the cash session, marking the biggest intraday decline on record, according to Bloomberg data going back to 2002.

The stock was down 34% for the year as of around lunchtime Tuesday.

Here's Barclays analyst Adrienne Yih's initial take on the dismal earnings report:

Despite challenging footwear backdrop, core DICK'S proves the strength of the model; Foot Locker exposes the weakness of the category. Despite an increasingly promotional footwear and apparel environment, the DICK'S business delivered +4.9% comps, with broad-based growth, higher transactions, and market-share gains. Foot Locker's -3.6% comp and sales-outlook reduction underscore the pressures facing footwear-centric retailers tied to legacy silhouettes, fewer launches, and retro products. With FY26 comparable-sales guidance reiterated for the DICK'S banner, growth is likely to moderate from current levels, while Foot Locker is expected to experience a weaker fall season. FY26 adjusted operating income was lowered due to expectations for an increasingly challenging footwear industry, as evidenced by footwear brands in recent weeks. We believe DKS's long-term strength as the dominant player remains intact, but near-term industry trends will affect the Foot Locker turnaround. In premarket trading on Aug. 25, 2026, DKS shares fell 17%, compared with a flat S&P 500.

2Q26 miss; FY26 guidance lowered. Consolidated DKS adjusted EPS of $3.53 missed the consensus estimate of $3.76, driven by lower sales and higher operating expenses. Total revenue of $5.59 billion came in below the consensus estimate of $5.65 billion. Comparable sales grew 4.9% at the DICK'S business, while the Foot Locker business turned negative at -3.6%. Overall, pro forma comparable sales increased 2.1%. Gross margin of 34.1% exceeded the consensus estimate of 33.9%. The operating-expense rate of 25.9% of sales missed the consensus estimate of 25.5%. FY26 guidance for the consolidated entity was updated, with management now forecasting adjusted EPS of $11.00 to $12.00, down from $13.50 to $14.50 previously and below the consensus estimate of $14.34; net sales of $21.9 billion to $22.2 billion, down from $22.1 billion to $22.4 billion previously and below the consensus estimate of $22.4 billion; comparable sales at the core DICK'S business of +2.5% to +4.0%, unchanged from the previous forecast; comparable sales at the Foot Locker business of -2.0% to 0.0%, down from +1.5% to +3.0% previously; and adjusted EBIT of $1.46 billion to $1.56 billion, down from $1.71 billion to $1.83 billion previously and below the consensus estimate of $1.80 billion.

Core DKS inventory in strong position. Based on our proprietary inventory analysis, DKS has posted four consecutive quarters of positive sales-to-inventory growth. In FY2Q26, the Inventory Management Spread ("IM Spread") was 88 basis points, worsening from 377 basis points in the previous quarter. DKS's Gross Margin Return on Inventory ("GMROI") has improved for four consecutive quarters, while its Operating Margin Return on Inventory ("OMROI") has worsened for two consecutive quarters. (Until the anniversary of the Foot Locker acquisition, our inventory metrics include only the core DICK'S business and exclude the Foot Locker business.)

What other analysts are saying, courtesy of Bloomberg:

Quo Vadis Capital

• "We are not tempted by DKS shares at an 18% premarket decline," writes John Zolidis, president and founder of Quo Vadis.
• He cites two problems at the retailer.
• First, the outlook for Dick's core business was revised downward based on an increasingly promotional environment in the channel and the company's decision "to participate" in that activity.
• "This is disappointing in the context of management's previous commentary about the strength of the business and implied insulation from pockets of weakness in customer cohorts and subcategories seen elsewhere," Zolidis says.
• The second and bigger issue is the lack of improvement at Foot Locker.
• "DKS did not understand what it was buying with Foot Locker," in his view, and the risk is now "becoming very real" that DKS will need to commit additional capital to Foot Locker.
• "The best path may be to admit the mistake now and write off the entire chain," Zolidis adds.

Citi (Buy)

• Analyst Paul Lejuez expects the stock to come under "significant pressure" following the lowered annual guidance and the "more challenging backdrop" cited by management.
• "We suspect that weak Foot Locker 2Q comps were expected by many, but the lowered FY Dick's banner EBIT margin and Foot Locker sales/EBIT reduction (which calls into question the timing of any potential fix) are the big negative surprises," he writes.

Bloomberg Intelligence

• The earnings shortfall and reduced annual outlook for Foot Locker's same-store sales "deepens skepticism about the merits" of the acquisition, analyst Lindsay Dutch writes.
• "Dick's promised a turnaround of Foot Locker, yet the 3.6% same-store sales decline in 2Q shows it has failed to deliver as tighter discretionary budgets pressure the lifestyle footwear category," she says.
• The legacy business "remains solid, with steady sports-focused demand."

UBS (Buy)

• The 2Q results and annual guidance update show that the company has been "subjected to the challenging conditions in the athletic footwear and apparel market as of late," analyst Michael Lasser writes.
• The core business continued to gain market share, but both segments, Dick's and Foot Locker, sacrificed some margin to drive business, he says.
• Key question: If challenging conditions in the athletic footwear and apparel market persist for a prolonged period, how will the earnings power of the combined business be affected?
• Another question is whether Foot Locker's recent performance will prompt management to change its strategy for the segment.

Jefferies (Hold)

• "The core Dick's business held up well this quarter, with Foot Locker soft," analyst Jonathan Matuszewski writes.
• "More important, as foreshadowed by other retailers and brands in the sporting goods retail landscape, the category has softened and management now expects more promotionality and less robust growth in 2H," he adds.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/25/2026 - 12:30

Canada Retaliates, Slaps $20 Billion In Tariffs On 700 US Goods

Days after the US hit Canada with a 50% tariff on $20 billion worth of Canadian goods amid a collapse in trade talks - and a Monday threat to include cars, trucks, auto parts and steel, Canada hit back on Tuesday - announcing retaliatory tariffs as high as 50% on $20 billion worth of American products. 

Canada will begin collecting tariffs of 50, 25, and 15 percent on roughly 700 products beginning on Sept. 8. Most notably is the doubling of tariffs on American steel and aluminum to 50%. In addition to tit-for-tat tariffs on things like tools, clothing and forestry products, Canada is also targeting consumer products like home appliances. 

The retaliation was expected following warnings by Prime Minister Mark Carney - a former central banker, who said that Canada would match US tariffs "dollar for dollar," though he admitted that the move "will raise costs and reduce choice for Canadians," NYT reports.

One of the major sources of tension in the trade negotiations was the United States’ 25 percent tariff on automobiles, a major export for Canada, introduced about 18 months ago. On Tuesday Canada said it would keep its retaliatory tariff on American-made cars at 25 percent and maintain a system that allows companies that build cars in Canada to continue to import them from the U.S. tariff-free, within limits. Canadians buy more cars from the United States that they ship there. -NYT

Canada imports around $272 billion in US goods annually - while Carney's government says it will spend far more on keeping Canadian exporters solvent than it will bring in from the tariff, so ouch. 

Or as the NYT frames it; "because Canada’s economy is about one-twelfth the size of the U.S. economy, its retaliatory tariffs will have the effect of a pea shooter in a gun battle." 

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/25/2026 - 12:15

Trump Admin Proposes New $100K H-1B Fee To Offset Immigration Enforcement Costs

The Trump administration plans to charge employers a fee of $103,265 for H-1B skilled foreign workers, according to a proposed regulation posted on Monday. Revenue from the fee would be used to offset the costs of running the federal immigration system - including courts and US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). 

A similar $100,000 fee was shot down in June by an Obama-appointed federal judge in Massachusetts, after Trump attempted to implement it via presidential proclamation and 20 blue states went apeshit. The administration's argument is that the H-1B program has been used to take jobs from Americans, and the additional fee would cause employers to consider the cost of just hiring Americans.

Citing a working paper in the National Bureau of Economic Research, the new proposed regulation argues that the new fee would make employers "less likely to hire an H-1B worker over a qualified and highly-skilled American." The paper found that H1-B workers make on average around 15% less than American counterparts. 

The program, passed by Congress in 1991, lets employers hire 65,000 skilled foreign workers per year - with an additional 20,000 visas available for workers who hold advanced degrees from US universities. 

The new proposed regulation is set to publish in the Federal Register today - and would exempt some groups such as most US colleges, universities and nonprofit hospitals associated with academic institutions. Unlike last year's proposal, this one would apply to many people already living in the US - not just new applications submitted from abroad.

The new rule would also restrict a major pathway used by tech companies. In recent years, Amazon has received the most H-1B visas - with over 9,300 approved petitions in FY2026 through June 30, the Washington Post notes - citing US Citizenship and Immigration Services data. Other companies using the H-1B program are India-based IT and outsourcing firms such as Infosys and Tata Consultancy Services, followed by American companies Apple and Microsoft.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/25/2026 - 11:40

"This Is My Place Of Business": How Cakes And Coffee Continue To Be Groundzero In An Age Of Rage

Authored by Jonathan Turley via Jonathan Turley,

"This is my place of business."

Those words from Jim Sheehan, owner of the Wydaho Roasters coffee shop in Driggs, Idaho, have sparked the latest controversy over the right of businesses to refuse service on the basis of religious or political views.

Sheehan has drawn national attention after throwing out a group of pro-life teenagers, calling them the equivalent of a Ku Klux Klan meeting in his shop. Sheehan clearly caters to those who want their lattes with an added shot of rage.

However, this and a number of other cases have exposed the hypocrisy of many regarding the service businesses must provide customers with opposing views. From cakes to coffee, shops remain ground zero for an age of rage.

Years ago, politicians and pundits rallied around the effort to force Jack Phillips, a cakeshop owner, to create cakes celebrating same-sex marriages. Phillips objected that it violated his religious beliefs. The case went all the way to the Supreme Court in what many of us hoped would be a final resolution of this conflict.

I had long criticized the framing of the case (and other similar cases) under the religious clauses rather than treating it as a simple matter of free speech. In the end, the Supreme Court punted in a frustrating 2018 decision.

In 2023, however, the Supreme Court delivered a major victory for free speech in 303 Creative v. Elenis. It ruled that Lorie Smith, a Christian website designer, could refuse to provide services for a same-sex marriage. Justice Neil Gorsuch wrote that "the framers designed the Free Speech Clause of the First Amendment to protect the 'freedom to think as you will and to speak as you think.' ... They did so because they saw the freedom of speech 'both as an end and as a means.'"

But notably, in cases like Masterpiece Cakeshop, Phillips insisted that he would always sell cakes to any couple, including same-sex couples. He only refused to make cakes specifically celebrating same-sex marriages, due to his religious views.

The case of Wydaho is different. Sheehan refused the same general accommodation offered to all customers because he opposes pro-life causes. In the confrontation, Sheehan declared that "in my world" pro-lifers are no different from the Ku Klux Klan.

"This is my place of business," he declared. "I did a lot of work to get people on the ballot so women would have the right to choose in the state of Idaho, and this is something I do not support, nor does my wife, and it's our business. So we have that choice."

In my view, they do have that choice. Yet it must also be acknowledged what Sheehan is doing is far more extreme than what Phillips did in Masterpiece Cakeshop. He is not being asked to create a coffee concoction opposing abortion, like a Cafe Au Life specialty drink. He acknowledges that other groups might use the shop - he just does not want these teenagers to use it to support pro-life causes.

The same controversy arose the same week across the country in Virginia. In Alexandria, Fatana Karimi, owner of the Karimi Salon, threw out a woman after she revealed that she was Israeli. Jessica Walton posted an account of the encounter, and a video was later posted on social media.

In the video, the person identified as Karimi says that she declared on Instagram that she would not serve those who support Israel. (She also adds that she got Walton to sign a release for the video.)

The Virginia Human Rights Act states that businesses cannot engage in "unlawful discrimination in employment because of race, color, religion, ethnic or national origin, sex, pregnancy, childbirth or related medical conditions, age, marital status, sexual orientation, gender identity, disability, or military status." Karimi will likely argue she refused service not due to Walton's religion or national origin, but due to her support for Israel - a political position.

The case is reminiscent of the abusive treatment afforded to Harvard Law Professor Alan Dershowitz at Martha's Vineyard by a pierogi stand. He was also refused service over his political views.

The line between national origin and religious discrimination versus political discrimination can be tenuous and unclear. However, in the video, the owner states that it is her national identity that is causing the action: "Get out of my shop. I can't provide service to an Israeli. It's against my political beliefs. You need to leave immediately."

Back in Idaho, Sheehan's bizarre analogy to the KKK outraged many, to the point that he later apologized for it. However, it is fascinating that liberals are now celebrating the right to exclude others for political or religious reasons, even when they are not asked to engage in any expressive act or make any creative product that contravenes their beliefs.

If that is now the case, many owe individuals such as Phillips an apology for years of costly lawsuits, even after the Supreme Court gave him his first nominal victory.

Sheehan could be prosecuted if he were refusing general service or accommodations to the teenagers due to their race or religion. But he is refusing service on the basis of his own political views. Wydaho Roasters does not appear to want business from people who are pro-life, of whom there might be quite a few in Idaho. Karimi appears not to want either Israeli or possibly Jewish customers. It is a curious business plan to exclude such a large segment of the market, but some owners are sure to put their political views before their profits.

However, those on the left cannot have it both ways. They cannot reject the free speech rights of some owners to decline service while celebrating others' refusal to do the same thing. None of this is likely to make society any more civil. No one wants a black eye to go with the red-eye espresso.

Of course, recognizing the free speech rights of an unhinged coffee shop owner does not require patronizing his establishment. Sheehan clearly does not want to serve pro-life citizens, and I expect the feeling is mutual.

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the best-selling author of "Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution." He is a member of the USA Today Board of Contributors.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/25/2026 - 11:20

Rabobank: Bessent's Buyback Looks A Lot Like "Whatever It Takes", And Druck Isn't A Fan

By Michael Every of Rabobank

US Treasury Secretary Bessent took out a tactical nuke in saying he could use $1trn from the Treasury General Account to fund Special Military Operation Twist bond buybacks vs. the $2bn per round increase we saw last week. That looks a lot like the ‘Whatever It Takes’ mentioned yesterday: his former mentor Stan Druckenmiller is not a fan, apparently.

He also launched ‘Operation Economic Outcast’ to isolate and squeeze Iran further on top of US sanctions and a blockade against its oil. Those helping Iran will face secondary sanctions escalating to their removal from the US dollar system, as nuclear a weapon as financial warfare can wield. However, when asked why he didn’t impose them immediately, Bessent replied, “Why would I want to blow up the global financial system?” He will first try to persuade key parties to walk away from Iran: yet some have real nuclear weapons and others control rare earths and global supply chains. The stakes here are therefore sky high, unless this is a bluff.

Tehran said it would retaliate to sanctions by land, sea, air, or cyber-attacks; trolled it might kill Barron Trump, as Israeli PM Netanyahu claimed it had threatened one his sons too; continued to threaten ships transiting Hormuz; the Houthis struck a Saudi tanker in the Red Sea, which neither Egypt nor Turkey responded to; the Saudis held talks about a state-backed war insurance plan for shipping like the US one that didn’t work; China sent PLA jets to drill alongside Egypt’s; China reported it has boosted coal's economic value by 700% after turning it to liquids, underlining it’s much more energy secure than before; a US defence start-up is making thousands of drone interceptors in the UAE for $5,000, cheaper than Iranian attack drones; and Greece warned Turkey against violating its “sovereign rights” and vowed to respond from a “position of strength.”

In Ukraine, EU leaders, and no US representative, offered help to Kyiv as it faces another €23n defense funding hole, albeit managing to hit Russia's Afipsky oil refinery as well as another e-commerce giant. Russia threatened to hit UK factories making defence parts for Ukraine.

Trump may impose a 7.5% ‘overcapacity’ tariff on China ahead of the Xi state visit, clearly a negotiating card. He will also raise the tariff on Canadian autos and trucks from 25% to 50% from 1 January in response to PM Carney’s ‘elbows up’. Ottawa now faces the choice of matching those tariffs, retreating, or doing what those who oppose tariffs as self-harm never do: slash their levies and enjoy cheap imports replacing local production. Alberta Premier Smith, where a vote on a secession referendum looms in October, had to stress it’s “not viable” to cut off energy exports to the US; and with warnings US-Canada trade war could affect their defence relationship, Carney said he will begin negotiations with the EU about deepening trade and defence relations.

That makes political but not geostrategic sense. Canada isn’t in Europe so can’t join the EU, but if it were to enter a customs union it would surrender sovereignty: and would Europe buy Canadian cars, trucks, planes, agri products, or its fossil fuels given plans to decarbonise? They’d like its critical minerals, but can buy them now. Canada would be sending its goods to a bloc far away over seas neither it nor the EU have the navies to protect, as both are defense under-spenders relative to their huge needs. Both rely on the US for defense and, increasingly, for AI. Yet both assume a benign US stance if they push ahead without it, strategically, even while saying they are doing so because they don’t see the US as benign. That logical inconsistency implies either the strategy is hollow, or will need filling with a greater shift to economic statecraft replete with risks.

Equally, some may picture a ‘blue’ bloc from Canada to Armenia as Yerevan said it will hold a referendum on EU membership soon, shifting the bloc further east and Russia-EU tensions higher. UK PM Burnham also made more mandate-free noises about rejoining in the future. 

Yet Politico underlines the German AfD -- cosy with the Kremlin and wishing to leave the euro and Schengen -- will win the 6 September state election in Saxony-Anhalt. The plan to deal with that ranges from ignoring to defunding Saxony to banning the AfD: are those a basis for long-term political stability? In early 2027, France then has a presidential election that could pit nationalist Le Pen vs. leftist Melenchon: both want to tear norms up, the latter to tear French debt up too. What’s the correct interest rate or FTA for these kinds of structural problems?

The new Rhine Group think tank led by Draghi states that for the EU, “The stakes are existential.” It underlines, “Europe is in a harder place than when the future of European competitiveness report was released… If stagnation continues, the continent will progressively lose the ability to fund the core obligations of a modern state: defence, public healthcare, pensions, education, climate investments, and safety nets for those who lose their jobs… Decline is not inevitable, but it is the direction we are heading unless we take urgent action.” The warning that “slow agony” lay ahead without radical, rapid EU change failed to produce anything much: will this report do the trick?

Meanwhile, showing how the world now works, the US(!) is opening up Venezuela’s telecom sector while excluding Chinese firms, as Fortune magazine floats the idea of the country adopting the US dollar.

In the US, the Supreme Court issued a ruling with potentially huge consequences. It has allowed, for now, a Trump executive order to proceed which strictly monitors mail-in voting and requires tighter control of who is listed as a voter and the envelopes used to do, at a time when the president has quietly asserted control over the postal service, according to the New York Times. Those making market, or geostrategic, gambles on midterm outcomes assuming that the magical mystery tour of mail-in votes will be cast in the same way they have may be in for a surprise – or so Republicans seem to feel. 

The Trump admin also proposed a staggering $103,000 fee for H-1B visas, effectively shutting off that avenue for all but the highest-earning immigrants, and is preparing to revoke the visas of up to 200K foreigners in largest mass action ever. That looks like a midterm-focused policy.

In short, there is a lot of economic outcasting going on right now. It’s just not clear who is going to be in and who is going to be out, and with whom, when the dust settles – and we can expect serious dustups in that process.

None of that mattered to the RBA’s majorly monomaniacal meeting minutes, which showed that it left rates on hold on the view that inflation was easing and so was the tight labour market. All of the above backdrop was cast out of that forecast, as is the case with other central banks. To be fair, how does one include it? To be just as fair, how can one exclude it? Maybe Warsh will have something to say on not saying anything about that on Friday.  

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/25/2026 - 10:40

Watch: Top Zelensky Staffer Led Out Of Corruption Court In Handcuffs 

This is not a sight you see everyday, but it's one that's becoming increasingly common in the halls of power in Kiev.

Footage of the detention of (now former) deputy head of Zelensky's office Irina Mudra, seen being led out in handcuffs after a court ordered her pretrial imprisonment on corruption charges, has emerged and is being widely shared. She was Zelensky's number two chief of staff running the presidential office, essentially...

Zelensky’s presidential office deputy is being led out in handcuffs.

Not the first office head with proven corruption.

Who’s next? pic.twitter.com/kgo6rovqP5

— Diana Panchenko 🇺🇦 (@Panchenko_X) August 25, 2026

The country's Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office has argued for her detention pending trail at the High Anti-Corruption Court, amid proceedings which began on August 21.

Starting on Aug.19, a presidential office statement had confirmed: "Iryna Mudra shall be dismissed from the post of deputy head of the Office of the President of Ukraine."

National media says that not only did she receive regular monthly income, but the prosecutor has alleged there is at least $4 million among other undeclared assets:

During the court hearing, the prosecutor separately mentioned a conversation between Iryna Mudra and Mykytas. According to the prosecution, it concerned the transfer of nearly $4 million, expenses for Mudra’s daughter’s living costs and education in the United States, as well as assets that were not listed in her declaration.

Based on the records of the covert investigative actions, it can be concluded that Mr. Mykytas left her (Mudra – ed.) $4 million; Ms. Mudra systematically receives $20,000–$30,000 every month; she owns a Range Rover that is not included in her declaration, worth approximately 4 million hryvnias. In addition, Ms. Mudra discusses jewelry she owns from Bulgari and discusses with Mykytas her daughter’s education in the United States, for which the annual budget for living expenses and tuition is expected to amount to $250,000. – Vitalii Hrechyshkin

Iryna Mudra, Ukrainian media file image

Ukrainian and regional media says her properties were searched last weekend: 

According to information from Ukrainian parliament member Oleksiy Honcharenko, investigators searched the premises of Iryna Mudra, deputy head of the President’s Office. He gave no further details about the case.

The outlet Zerkalo Nedeli reports that the NABU and SAPO operation also involves Vadym Stolar, a lawmaker from the former Opposition Platform — For Life party, and Maksym Mykytas, a former member of the Ukrainian parliament, in addition to Mudra. Officials from the Justice Ministry and representatives of Sense Bank (formerly Alfa-Bank Ukraine) also appear in the case.

The operation was code-named “Forrest Gump.” NABU released a fragment of an audio recording capturing conversations among people named in the case, in which they mention “four sacks” and the President’s Office. “Only a moron would register stolen money and tuition payments in his own children’s names,” a voice on the recording also says.

The bail set by the judge this week was reportedly immense...

Irina Mudraya, ex-deputy head of Zelensky's office, says she'll pay the $450,000 bail to stay out of detention.

Prosecutors originally wanted $3.35 million.

I'm sure she can pay much more. Half a million dollars is just pocket change for her. pic.twitter.com/Hg9tA4wUhH

— Chay Bowes (@BowesChay) August 25, 2026

All of this follows on a series of prior investigations by NABU and SAPO into corruption at the highest levels of government, which has taken down many officials and been an ongoing source of embarrassment for Ukraine.

These investigations tended to get spun as if 'heroic' Zelensky is on a mission to root out corruption and destroy the rot from within. Journalist, Mark Ames has pointed out the following trend: Every shocking Zelensky corruption scandal - and they keep getting worse - is PR’d away as “proof that Ukraine is a functioning western democracy fighting corruption”, as if it’s always one corruption scandal away from turning the corner & becoming Denmark.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/25/2026 - 10:20

New Home Sales Collapsed In July As Consumer Confidence Hit 7-Month Lows

The Conference Board's measure of Americans' Consumer Confidence fell from a revised-lower 90.2 to 89.4 in August (below the 90.2 exp) - the lowest since January.

Interestingly, under the hood, we saw Expectations plunge to January lows while Present Situation spiked from 5 year lows...

“Consumer confidence moderated slightly in August for a second consecutive month,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board.

“The Expectations Index slipped further into negative territory, which was offset by a moderate rise in the Present Situation Index after declining in the past three months. Consumer appraisals of current business conditions were mildly positive. Perceptions of the current labor market improved, reversing three months of moderate decline. Looking ahead, consumers were more pessimistic about business conditions and the labor market over the next six months. Expectations for household incomes moderated but remained optimistic overall.”

On a six-month moving average basis, confidence across all age groups trended down slightly, remaining highest among consumers under 35.

By income, confidence was mixed, but generally higher-income groups were more optimistic.

By generation, confidence for Gen Z remained the highest, followed closely by Millennials on a six-month moving average basis. The three oldest generations—Generation X, Baby Boomer, and Silent Generation—trailed in confidence by a wider margin.

By political affiliation, confidence among Independents and Republicans softened while Democrats were somewhat more positive in August.

Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy were slightly more pessimistic in August.

References to prices in general—and oil and gas specifically—remain elevated. Comments about war/conflict, food/groceries, trade, and jobs rose in August. Consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations were slightly more elevated in August. Most consumers—61.3%—still anticipated higher interest rates over the next 12 months, down moderately from 62% in July. Meanwhile, consumers still expected higher stock prices a year from now.

On a six-month moving average basis, auto purchasing expectations remained strong. Homebuying expectations declined slightly for the month but maintained an upward trend after slumping to decade-lows in early 2024. 

Perhaps reflective of the weak confidence (especially 'Expectations'), new home sales plunged 10.5% MoM in August (after an upwardly revised +7.6% bounce in July). That dragged new home sales down 6.3% YoY...

Total new home sales SAAR dropped back to 607k - basically flat since 2016...

Sales have fallen in three of the last four months, adding to evidence of a housing market burdened by elevated finance costs and prices.

However, on the potential bright side for homebuyers and affordability, median new home prices fell to a five-year low...

Interestingly, while median new home price just dropped to a 5 year low, the average new home price hasn't budged as ultra high end homes keep lifting the average...

While builders have had some success bolstering demand with free upgrades, mortgage rate buydowns and price reductions, the entry-level market remains affordability-constrained, and likely stays there until consumer confidence rebounds (which is highly dependent on the price of gas, among other things).

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/25/2026 - 10:13

US Home Prices Are Rising At Their Fastest Pace In A Year

Following its unexpected rebound in May (from three months of declines), US home prices in America's 20 largest cities were expected to rise again (+0.1% MOM) in June (according to the latest data from S&P Cotality Case-Shiller).

Instead prices actually accelerated more, up a sizable 0.24% MoM, pulling home prices up 2.1% YoY - the fastest acceleration in a year...

“Seasonal factors continue to support monthly price growth," said Rebecca Kaufman, Associate Director of Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

"Because June typically falls near the peak of the homebuying season, price appreciation often moderates and market activity cools in the months ahead."

 

For the fourth consecutive month, Chicago led all metros with a 6.9% annual increase in June, followed by New York (4.8%) and Cleveland (4.1%).

Meanwhile, Seattle recorded the largest annual decline at 2.0%, followed by Las Vegas (-1.9%) and Denver (-1.2%).

"This geographic divide reflects a years-long trend, with housing markets in the Northeast and Midwest regaining strength while many Western and Sunbelt markets soften," says Kaufman.

Prices remain oddly coupled with Fed Reserves, implying stability, rather than acceleration, from here...

“The housing market remains under pressure, with 30-year mortgage rates holding near 6.5% in June,” Kaufman concluded.

“As financing costs are kept high for prospective buyers, current homeowners remain reluctant to give up the low mortgage rates secured in prior years.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/25/2026 - 09:09

Oil Falls Further As US Prepares Return Of Diplomats To Mideast Embassies

There continue to be clear signals that the White House is moving away from the potential for renewed military action and instead settling in for a long economic siege campaign targeting Iran, on a permanent basis.

The avoidance of more bombs away and with all the risks and uncertainty of a military 'solution' has seen oil prices drop. Energy prices are weakening also amid positive signals from Pakistan's army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, who just left Tehran after carrying a fresh US-drafted framework. Crude oil prices (WTI) dropped 3% to just below $82.50 a barrel on Tuesday, extending the 2.4% decline recorded in the previous session.

The US Embassy in Qatar, via State Dept/Stars & Stripes

Al-Arabiya is reporting that he presented an offer to lift sanctions under the MOU, so long as Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz and halts all hostile actions against Gulf states.

Munir had spoken to Trump by phone before travelling to Tehran, which underscores the high-level nature of the reported offer. Other top Pakistani officials accompanied him:

Pakistan and Iran made "significant progress" in talks that focused on the US-Israeli war on Iran and a path to peace, Pakistan’s interior minister said on Tuesday, at the end of a visit to Tehran.

Pakistan's Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi subsequently stated on X, "The Iranian President candidly shared his government’s perspective and we had a very constructive exchange on the issues involved."

While it's unclear what Tehran's response will be, the last days have not seen new Iranian attacks on shipping in the Hormuz Strait. 

Still, Tehran is proclaiming that Washington's shift is a result of military defeat. On Tuesday Al Jazeera is citing IRGC spokesman Sardar Mohebi, who says the Trump administration's intensified economic campaign against Iran is proof that the US has failed on the battlefield.

He calls the move toward Operation Economic Outcast a "tacit admission" of America's military defeat in the region. As evidence for this the Iranians are pointing to US media admissions that pretty much all of the Pentagon's Gulf outposts have suffered damage or serious destruction, and US forces have pulled back. Even bases in Jordan have been hammered in what some analysts have called a successful campaign of 'debasification'.

But in another sign that Washington is moving away from a war-footing and instead opting for a long economic campaign, it is said to be readying the return of diplomats to the region. Another result of the fierce Iranian retaliation amid Operation Epic Fury had been the closure of US embassies and consulates across the region - which in some cases may have even been targeted.

"The State Department is preparing to send U.S. diplomats back to embassies in the Middle East that were evacuated before and during the war with Iran, suggesting that the Trump administration does not anticipate a return to all-out hostilities," the NY Times reports Tuesday.

"The return of foreign service officers and the scaling back of emergency measures taken at U.S. missions in the Middle East could begin this week, according to an internal State Department document obtained by The Times," the publication continues.

In Bessent's secondary sanctions rollout presser on Monday, he slipped up the below off-the-cuff moment when he called on a random journalist, who asked an excellent question:

Reporter: You described this as an economic D-Day, but D-Day wasn't a threat of an invasion and the US didn't give a timeline to Germany. So why not impose the sanctions today?

Bessent: Why would I want to blow up the global financial system? pic.twitter.com/WRt4onNuIM

— Acyn (@Acyn) August 24, 2026

Of course, nothing is yet certain and the situation remains very fluid, with the Iranians having previously demonstrated willingness to assert new leverage through attacks. According to details in the NY Times:

The restaffing is set to proceed even though talks between the United States and Iran have floundered, leaving the Trump administration to threaten new economic sanctions.

Embassies slated to restore higher levels of staffing include those in Israel, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Oman, Iraq and Kuwait, the document says.

The State Department issued a statement saying it "continuously reviews the security posture at our diplomatic missions around the world. Based on our latest assessment, we are adjusting our staffing posture at certain posts in the Middle East to ensure we can continue advancing U.S. foreign policy objectives while protecting the safety and security of our personnel."

But at this moment, embassies across the Gulf as well as Jordan remain shuttered, with most diplomatic personnel having been removed to other State Department posts.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/25/2026 - 09:00