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In 2021, a glut of climbers set out to break records by climbing Pakistan’s K2 during a brutal winter.

Hochul, who is up for reelection next month, says she will “work with the New York State legislature” to pass legislation to close the loophole, which can prevent predators who take advantage of someone who has voluntarily consumed drugs or alcohol to escape prosecution.

Donald Trump says seven Cornell fraternity brothers accused of rape won't get a fair shake under NY Attorney General Letitia James' probe.

Schumer & The Democrats' "Alinsky-Grade Cloud Of Gaslight"

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Clusterfuck Nation,

The Ancient Parable

"I will throw you in prison. I want Chinese style communism to happen inside of the democratic party right now. I want to do cultural revolution shit."

- Hasan Piker, DSA Spox

Translation: Chuck Schumer knows that the Democrats have already been thwarted from rigging the election, from flooding the polls with illegal immigrant voters, with dead voters, with voters who moved out of state but still got mail-in ballots sent to their old addresses, with voters registered as living in Walmart parking lots, and so on. Chuck Schumer knows that the Civil Rights Division of DOJ is sending hundreds of lawyers to observe the action in swing state polling places. ICE might even be on hand to see who turns up.

So, Chuck Schumer is pretending that the Republicans will try to do what the Democrats actually did in several previous elections (including the last midterm, 2022, viz., AZ, GA, NV), and would have liked to do in this midterm, but can't. The Democrats will holler like crazy about it before the election to plant this idea in credulous minds. They will jump up and down going woo-woo-woo on Election Day itself to water the idea. And after the election they will blitz every critical precinct with lawsuits to prevent the vote from being certified, using select "activist" judges to issue TROs and writs to delay election results and de-legitimize the vote.

And if none of that avails - which it won't - they'll call out their ground troops, Antifa, BLM, Free Palestine, LGBTQ2S+, the furious transsexuals, the hysterical cat ladies, and suchlike to make a giant ruckus so as to provoke the president to invoke emergency powers to quell the mayhem. And then they'll point at Mr. Trump shrieking, "See! Tyrant!"

Chuck Schumer is such a shithead. Everybody knows that he intends for the Democratic Party to inflict lawfare and commit warfare on the midterm election (in that order), and hence on the American people, behind an Alinsky-grade cloud of gaslight claiming the other side is doing it.

Of course, it's the president's constitutional duty (Article II, Section 3) to take care that the laws be faithfully executed. You have seen that Mr. Trump is taking a good deal of care vis-à-vis this midterm election to avoid any hint of interference. You can infer that's at least one reason we have seen no indictments of the Deep State sedition artists operating so brazenly since 2016.

By the way, doing what's possible to make sure that only citizens can vote is taking care to faithfully execute the law, in case there's any question about that. A September 25 SCOTUS decision in Department of Homeland Security v. League of Women Voters (No. 26A308), a 6-3 majority (usual suspects dissenting) paused by lower-court judge Sparkle Sooknanan that had blocked the Dept. of Homeland Security's Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements system - further proof that the Lefty-left won't abide any restrictions on who can vote.

The SCOTUS stay allows state and local officials to match their voter rolls against federal Social Security records, to sort out who can legally vote. AI could do this with novel efficiency. The catch is, states' participation is voluntary. Only twenty-seven states have moved to participate in this record-sharing. Another catch is that SCOTUS waited, for unknown reasons, before issuing their ruling until well into the "90-day rule window" (in the National Voter Registration Act) that doesn't allow actual changes in the voter rolls during this period, only identification of problems. We'll see if any of that dissuades non-citizens from attempting to cast a vote.

You have to wonder why the Democratic Party is acting like they've already won the midterms. After ten years of narrative control through their allies in the network media and what's left of the major newspapers, the Democrats apparently believe that if you assert an outcome often enough, Oprah Winfrey style, it will come true.

It's just another gaslighting op. Look at the Democratic Party's marquee candidates, a ragtag and bobtail of avowed jihadis, communists, neo-Jacobins, and plain old creeps such as Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, Melat Kiros in Colorado, Darializa Avila Chevalier and Claire Valdez in New York, Angie Nixon in Florida, James Talarico in Texas, and Troy Jackson up in Maine. The old Chuck Schumer / Hakeem Jeffries wing of the party pretends to support this rabble, who have declared they are merely running under the party's banner for convenience and aim to deep-six the likes of Schumer and Jeffries at the first opportunity.

Will the Democrats still try to cheat their way through the midterms despite the obstacles and disincentives piling up around them? Probably, yes, because that will trigger conflict between the states and the Feds, and post-election chaos is what the party needs to keep hope alive, as they like to say. They want the results to remain in limbo as long as possible, with maximum lawfare around it to further confuse and confound the outcome.

It's in their nature. They are the scorpion riding the frog across the river in the ancient parable.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/02/2026 - 16:20

Affleck debuted his new Netflix political thriller, “Animals,” to a packed house at the Directors Village Theatre on Thursday night.

Affleck debuted his new Netflix political thriller, “Animals,” to a packed house at the Directors Village Theatre on Thursday night.

A massive metropolis could soon emerge from farmland in Central California, but not everyone is welcome.

At the time of their divorce, the supermodel had explained she and the athlete simply had “grown apart.”

At the time of their divorce, the supermodel had explained she and the athlete simply had “grown apart.”

NY Post readers discuss a co-pilot stabbing the captain on a Israel-bound flight before passengers stepped in to fight back.

Luka Doncic has filed a “Hague Convention” petition to have his two daughters brought from Slovenia to the United States, a source confirmed to the California Post. The petition “seeks to organize or secure effective exercise of rights of access to a child,” according to the U.S. Department of State. Doncic, who’s entering his third...

Tristi Rodriguez is a Kings reporter, but she wasn’t one of the women featured in the hot mic moment at the team’s media day. Rodriguez released a statement in a post on X, where she revealed that she was incorrectly speculated to be one of the voices heard on the embarrassing clip. Tristi Rodriguez released...

Parts of Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park are closed after nearly 100 earthquakes shook the summit of Kīlauea volcano.

When are we heading back to Briar U?

Kill Jackie is built around CZJ and her charming Welsh lilt.

The partners immediately made a U-Turn and found the child’s desperate mother, 21-year-old Janibel Montana, outside, holding her limp son and screaming for help, dramatic body camera video captured.

"Everything surprised me. It was hell. And heaven," Pascal said at a New York Film Festival press conference.

New York City is the hardest major US market for first-time homebuyers, who would need 65.2 years to save the typical $265,000 down payment.

Seagate, Western Digital Crater After Toshiba Breaks Hard-Drive "Supply Discipline" Pact

For most of 2026, the bull case for the HDD duopoly could be summarized in one sentence: nobody is building new factories. On Friday, someone did.

Shares of Seagate (STX) and Western Digital (WDC) tumbled more than 10% on Friday, standing out like a sore thumb on a day when the Nasdaq hit all-time highs, after Nikkei reported that Toshiba plans to double its hard disk drive production capacity to grab a bigger slice of the AI data center storage boom.

This is how Goldman's TMT desk summarized the Nikkei story first thing in the morning (full note available to pro subs):

Japanese technology group Toshiba plans to double production capacity for hard disk drives used in artificial intelligence data centers within fiscal 2027 as the AI boom propels data storage demand. The company will invest roughly 60 billion yen ($380 million) to expand facilities in the Philippines... The Japanese player's share by storage capacity stands at just over 10%, but it aims to reach 30% in the medium term. The Philippine expansion marks the company's first major HDD investment in around five years. Along with adding production lines at the plant, Toshiba will handle new products that increase per-unit memory capacity by as much as 40%.

By midday, Goldman's US equities desk flagged the "memory names, WDC (-10.9%) and STX (-11.6%)" as the "standout laggards" in an otherwise green tape, where AI winners were up 1.4% and NDX and NVDA had just printed all-time highs.

To be sure, a 10% drop is just a flesh wound for stocks that have tripled. Even after Friday's puke, STX is still up some 208% YTD and WDC is up 141%, compared to a "mere" 22% for the Nasdaq 100.

But when you're priced for perfection, it's not the size of the hit that matters, it's where it lands.

The One Thing That Wasn't Supposed To Happen

Recall that the entire HDD up-cycle (as well as memory, chips, etc., pretty much everything in the semiconductor commodity chain) has been built on the premise of supply discipline, i.e., that none of the three remaining hard drive makers would add unit capacity, and that all exabyte growth would come from cramming more terabytes into each drive. Here is how Bernstein put it after hosting Seagate management on a non-deal roadshow in August (emphasis ours):

None of STX, WDC, or Toshiba are adding drive unit capacity, keeping industry-wide HDD supply structurally disciplined. Seagate management explained that its factories are effectively full, and rather than expanding units, management is targeting roughly 25% CAGR in nearline exabyte shipments purely by increasing capacity per drive via HAMR... building a new factory would take at least two years, which management has no plans to do.

Bernstein then went on to make STX its top pick precisely because "the broader industry's inability to scale supply keeps supply disciplined."

Well, oops: as of this morning, a third of "the broader industry" just announced it is scaling supply.

Regular readers will recall that we have seen this movie before. Back in May, in "China Begins Flooding The Market With DRAM And NAND Chips", we noted that Seagate's CEO had told JPMorgan that building new factories would "take too long," and warned that once someone else steps in to fill the supply gap, the supply tightness that justified the memory ETF rally would collapse. That time it was CXMT and YMTC on the memory side, which is only getting started with the old Chinese "capture market share by dumping products at below market prices" trick. This time it's an old friend in spinning rust, and it happens to be in the Philippines rather than Hefei.

And yes, the timing is apt for another reason. Rosenblatt points out that hyperscalers are now negotiating long-term agreements (LTAs) extending into 2029-2031, and Toshiba's expansion "introduces a credible medium-term supply risk, giving customers incremental negotiating leverage." Evercore adds that while Seagate "has allocated the majority of its nearline exabytes into calendar year 2028," Western Digital is still "negotiating long-term agreements extending to calendar year 2031." Put differently: 2027-28 pricing is largely locked in. What the market is repricing is the back end of the curve, which, for stocks trading on out-year earnings power, is the part that matters.

"Overdone"... Says Everyone With A Buy Rating

Predictably, the sell-side, which is unanimously bullish - and very wrong today - on both names, rushed to defend the duopoly. The best arguments:

• Citi (Buy, WDC PT $740, STX PT $1,300) argues the bottleneck isn't Toshiba's factory but its suppliers: "Unlike STX and WDC, Toshiba does not internally source their own media and heads," so "in order to double their current EB capacity they would also need their external component suppliers to also significantly raise capacity – which we believe could limit the impact of total EB supplied to the market."
• Morgan Stanley (Overweight, buying the dip) says "the gap between HDD supply and demand through calendar 2028 still looks wider than Toshiba's planned addition," and notes Toshiba lacks leading-edge capacity and heat-assisted magnetic recording (HAMR) technology.
• Rosenblatt (Buy, WDC PT $800, STX PT $1,400) reads the news as "more about Toshiba reclaiming lost market share rather than the stated 30% market share ambitions," and continues "to see support for sustained pricing power from a worsening supply demand imbalance due to AI."
• Bloomberg Intelligence says the plan "looks more like validation of stronger AI and data-center storage demand than a near-term supply threat."

Translation: Street targets now sit 50% to 90% above Friday's price, which is either a screaming buy signal, or more correctly, a reminder that price targets tend to follow price, not the other way around.

Goldman, for its part, didn't need to rush out a defense because it already had one on file. At last month's Communacopia conference, Goldman's James Schneider came away from Seagate CFO Gianluca Romano's presentation with three takeaways:

1. Seagate sees strong demand trends as continuing to support pricing uplift and margins through FY27;
2. HAMR volumes well on track to cross over PMR by the end of calendar 2026;
3. The company expects to continue high-yield debt retirement and pivot to share repurchases.

And just this week, Goldman's Korea memory team, reading across from Micron's results, said it expects "2027 and 2028 memory S/D to be much tighter than 2026," with customers "requesting longer duration and larger supply" agreements. Not exactly the backdrop for a glut.

The HAMR Moat

The real question is whether Toshiba's doubling matters as much as the stock reaction suggests. Some napkin math: going from "just over 10%" of industry exabytes to roughly double that by FY27 adds something like 10% to total industry exabyte supply, spread over two years. Meanwhile, Seagate alone is targeting ~25% nearline exabyte growth per year through HAMR. In other words, Toshiba's plan sounds big in a headline, but in exabyte terms it's a rounding error relative to what the HAMR transition is already adding, if, that is, Toshiba's head and media suppliers cooperate (see Citi above).

Which brings us to the part of the story the market may be glossing over: this isn't a level playing field. Seagate is the only player shipping HAMR at scale, and as Bernstein showed, its areal density lead already translates into faster exabyte growth than WDC...

... and, per Bernstein's forecasts, a gross margin that crosses above WDC's in FY27 and keeps climbing toward the mid-60s.

Which is also why Bernstein, back in August, said that while "a rising tide is lifting all boats," STX's HAMR lead "is why it is our top pick." If the tide is now going to recede a bit as Toshiba adds supply, the boat with the weakest areal density roadmap is the one most exposed. Hint: it's not Seagate, which may explain why WDC is now down more from its June peak than STX.

Meanwhile, The Picks And Shovels Rally

One more thing: equipment names catching a bid on the news included Veeco (+11%), whose data storage business sells ion beam deposition and etch tools used to make HDD read/write heads, i.e., a direct beneficiary of anyone (Toshiba or its suppliers) adding head capacity. Aixtron (+7%) also rallied, although its MOCVD tools are mostly used for compound semiconductors (GaN, SiC, optoelectronics), so the HDD link there is tenuous at best.

Bottom Line

The analysts are probably right that Toshiba's ¥60 billion won't put a dent in HDD pricing through 2028: the volumes are sold, the LTAs are signed, and Toshiba still needs someone to sell it heads and platters. But the market wasn't pricing the next two years; it was pricing a decade of monopoly-like discipline in an oligopoly of three.

The lesson from today is one which the rest of the world (and especially European car makers) are painfully familiar with: in commodity hardware, the cure for high prices is high prices, and sooner or later somebody in Asia builds a factory.

Whether this is the start of that cycle or just another buyable dip in an AI super-cycle (the sell-side which stands to make a killing the longer the AI bubble rolls on unanimously votes for the latter, understandably) will depend on one thing: whether Seagate and WDC respond with capacity plans of their own. If they do, the "supply discipline" thesis is over. If they don't, Toshiba just bought itself some market share at the top of the cycle.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/02/2026 - 15:47

French President Emmanuel Macron announced Friday that the G7 nations have agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from their stockpiles.