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Bessent's 'Yentervention' Does Not Fix Japan's Underlying Structural Issues

Zero Rss
34 minutes 56 seconds ago
Bessent's 'Yentervention' Does Not Fix Japan's Underlying Structural Issues

Authored by Ed Dowd via 'Beyond The Narrative' substack,

...a delicate meal to cook before Midterms...

My conclusions on the Bessent yen intervention:

  • The move is a temporary Band-Aid at best and sharp yen strength can historically trigger carry-trade unwinds and risk-asset volatility, but it does not fix Japan’s structural debt or rate differentials. The Fed, BOJ and Treasury are walking a tightrope.

  • Consensus is correct that the primary driver is preventing forced sales of Japan’s $1T+ UST holdings that would spike US yields.

  • Expanding the FIMA repo facility is a backdoor start to yield-curve control, letting Japan borrow dollars against Treasuries instead of dumping them.

  • Bessent is explicitly worried about contagion in his own words by citing the Asian financial crisis trigger from a weak yen and framing the intervention as “stopping an emergency” before it spreads.

  • I believe one of the motivations was to delay any major market or yield disruption until at least the midterms.

  • Interventions like this rarely stick without fundamental policy shifts and often unleash unintended consequences down the road.

Background

On Friday last week:

July 31 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury has informed a number of ‌banks that it may intervene in the Japanese yen market on Friday and that they should “stand ready for future action,” a source familiar with the matter told Reuters.

The notice to banks, channeled through the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, comes a day after Japanese authorities stepped in to prop up the yen, setting ​the currency up for its biggest weekly rise since February, pulling it off of four-decade lows against the dollar.

News of ​the potential intervention by the U.S. Treasury helped push the yen higher against the dollar on Friday. It last traded at ⁠159.09 to the dollar after trading as low 163.65 on Thursday.

On Sunday August 2nd Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed intervention on X:

The Trump Administration delivers for America’s trusted partners. Economic security is national security. And the U.S.-Japan alliance is built on both.

Friday’s coordinated foreign exchange actions countered disorderly yen movements.

Treasury remains attentive and in close communication with our counterparts at MOF and BOJ. We will not hesitate to participate in further joint intervention.

The FIMA Repo Facility is an important backstop. We would encourage it to be upsized in the coming months.

We strongly support Japan’s decisive market and monetary steps to correct the substantial undervaluation of the yen.

The Takaichi government is moving into an exciting new phase of Abenomics, as nearly 15 years of powerful stimulus have created durable, robust underlying economic dynamics.

Market commentary on X quickly coalesced around protecting the US Treasury market. Japan is one of the largest foreign holders of USTs. A collapsing yen raises the risk of liquidation to defend the currency, pushing US yields higher at a politically sensitive moment. Many skeptics noted the fix is temporary and that the yen’s weakness is rooted in Japan’s public-debt burden and policy divergences, not purely speculative overshoot. Without follow-through on BOJ rates and Japanese fiscal discipline, official buying merely delays the inevitable.

In a clip aired on Bannon’s War Room on August 4, Bessent laid out the contagion risk directly: “One of the things that triggered the Asian financial crisis was a very weak Japanese yen that caused a tsunami across Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia. Someone asked me, ‘What’s the emergency?’ The emergency is stopping an emergency. We don’t have to wait for the crisis. We can remediate it early.” Bannon’s own brief framing that day was that the effort ultimately keeps Japan financing US deficits so they neither sell nor stop buying Treasuries.

My analysis

I posted this right after the weekend announcement on X:

“Massive, coordinated Yen intervention announced this weekend. Traditionally large delta rapid strengthening of the yen has been associated with risk asset weakness especially global equities. So far this is a 5% down move in USD/JPY (yen strength). Rapid moves can sometimes cause the Yen carry trade to become more expensive and liquidations can occur. In August 2024 a 10% move provided some volatility especially in Japanese equities. The cooks are in the kitchen now and it’s a delicate meal they are preparing.”

Meaning the authorities want to halt the Yen slide but they also don’t want it to strengthen too much and cause the Yen carry trade unwind. The goal is stability. Put another way, we simultaneously don’t want Japanese selling our treasuries out of reserves to defend a weak Yen but we also don’t want to see rapid yen strength cause a cascading global margin call. We saw a milder version of margin call in 2024 when the Yen strengthened 10% very quickly. The market is currently applauding the move. However, a coordinated official bid changes the near-term price action, but it does not erase the underlying positioning or the rate differential that keeps the trade alive.

I agree with the consensus that the core motive is preventing Japanese sales of US Treasuries and that the FIMA expansion is a backdoor beginning of yield-curve control. By letting Japan post Treasuries as collateral for dollar liquidity instead of selling them into the open market, the authorities are effectively capping the upward pressure on US yields. It is a clever, low-visibility way to manage the curve without an explicit Fed QE announcement. Combined with the direct yen purchases, it buys some time. I believe one of the motivations was to delay any major market or yield disruption until at least the midterms. But it is temporary. Japan’s debt dynamics and the need for eventual BOJ normalization remain. History shows these interventions lose effectiveness once markets test the resolve and the size required grows with diminishing returns.

Officials can signal and buy for a while, but without sustained Japanese policy follow-through the yen will eventually drift weaker again, forcing larger and more frequent interventions. Each round raises the risk of the very asset volatility and liquidity events that the cooks are trying to manage. Keep watching the carry-trade heat and the pace of any further coordinated actions…that will tell us whether the meal is cooked well or burnt.

“But everyone who hears these words of mine and does not put them into practice is like a foolish man who built his house on sand. The rain came down, the streams rose, and the winds blew and beat against that house, and it fell with a great crash.” Matthew 7:26-27

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Reality Bites: Socialist NYC Mayor Mamdani Turns To Capitalist Bankers For Help

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Reality Bites: Socialist NYC Mayor Mamdani Turns To Capitalist Bankers For Help

After socialist New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani went after Citadel's Ken Griffin, created a property database of wealthy homeowners that makes the list easily accessible to "Luigi-worshipping leftist thugs," and endlessly bashed America and capitalism, all while his friend, Democratic Socialists of America's unofficial spokesperson Hasan Piker, called on his followers to "kill capitalists in the streets" and other DSA members called for the destruction of America from within, the far-left NYC mayor, who is running into roadblocks, has called on capitalist bankers for help.

Piker in his own words: "KiII those motherf**kers and murder those motherf**kers in the streets. Let the streets soak in their f**king red capitalist blood." 

Hasan Piker calls on his followers to kill capitalists:

“Yeah kill them! KiII those motherfuckers and murder those motherfuckers in the streets. Let the streets soak in their fucking red capitalist blood, dude.”

Democrats are campaigning with him. pic.twitter.com/YiZxGgRkgc

— Eyal Yakoby (@EYakoby) April 9, 2026

Bloomberg reports that Mamdani is seeking top capitalist bankers for a new business advisory council as he attempts to mend relations with Wall Street after spewing dangerous rhetoric against the very people who make the city go 'round.

Those invited include former UBS Americas Chief Executive Officer Robert Wolf, former Lazard investment-banking chief Antonio Weiss, and Bank of America's New York City President Jose Tavarez, according to people familiar with the discussions.

The people said the group would provide advice and feedback from key industries, including real estate, finance, and technology.

"The administration is in the process of reaching out to business executives to form a Business Advisory Council," a spokesperson for the Mayor's Office said in an emailed statement to the outlet.

The spokesperson added, "The purpose of the council is to engage with business leaders for their insights and input as we build an economic development strategy that improves life for all New Yorkers."

Mamdani's outreach to capitalist bankers comes as his team of socialists dismantles a separate corporate advisory board connected to the Mayor's Fund to Advance New York City. The mayor has clashed with business leaders over his push for higher taxes on wealthy residents and large corporations, while redirecting city institutions toward socialist causes.

Bill Cunningham, a political strategist who served under former Governor Hugh Carey and later as former Mayor Michael Bloomberg's communications director at City Hall, told the outlet, "I don't know how the mayor will go about creating a group that he can interact with that can help him manage the city. That should be the goal."

With his socialist agenda encountering institutional, fiscal, and political resistance, Mamdani's decision to tap capitalist bankers is more of an acknowledgment of governing reality: NYC cannot maintain its tax base, finance its ambitions, or remain a global business center while pushing anti-American socialist policies. 

Yet another example of how socialism sounds great on paper but, in reality, is an unmitigated disaster once the resources are depleted.

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Meet The Lab-Leak Proponent Set To Take Fauci's Old Job

Authored by Paul D. Thacker via The DisInformation Chronicle,

Politico reported that physician-scientist Steven Quay is going through final vetting to take over Tony Fauci's job at the NIH, reporting that aligns with rumors I've been hearing from sources inside the administration for several months. Quay sat for an interview with me on the DisInformation Chronicle podcast last June to talk about changes NIH should make to ensure we don't have another pandemic caused by dangerous virus research, and I ran an excerpt of his book "The Code As Witness: How the COVID Genome Reveals Its Lab Origins."

The Politico leak comes as Fauci is in the hot seat with Senators passing a resolution yesterday morning that found him in contempt for failing to answer questions during a hearing last week. Senator Rand Paul (R-Kentucky) has released thousands of pages of internal documents about the pandemic, including Fauci's own diary which was found on government servers.

I'm on vacation and haven't had time to go through all the documents - actually, I don't think anybody has gone through all the new revelations - but I did discover that Fauci wrote in his diary that he didn't like my 2022 interview with former CDC Director Robert Redfield. In a September 2022 entry, Fauci called me a "totally weird person" and complained that Dr. Redfield was a "bizarre personality" for telling me that he thought the pandemic started in a lab.

I also ran across a surprising article in the New Yorker that belittled Big Tony for his self-obsessive diary where he seemed much more interested in fame and ties to celebrities than trying to protect the public from the COVID virus. Here's one passage:

Fauci does not seem to see a relationship between the adulation and the villainization - to understand that he's hated for being beloved, perhaps more than for loving the truth. One day, he is doing a podcast interview with Alec Baldwin ("Without a doubt, from a intellectual and substantive standpoint it was one of the best if not the best interview that I have ever given"). The next, he is confronted with a poll suggesting "that middle to right people want me to retire and are not getting vaccinated because I'm the messenger telling them to get vaccinated." But the emotional charge of his celebrity defies his self-conception as a neutral arbiter. One of the sharpest ironies in the diary is how often the good press that he quotes praises him for his modesty and his lack of ego. The Fauci mythos was incompatible with the actual work of being Fauci.

The New Yorker long ago morphed into a die-hard cheerleader for Democratic Party interests, and finding something so negative about Democrat's COVID demigod is pretty shocking. Has Fauci lost his hypnotic hold over Woke reporters?

Even as the public has been buried in a ton of new Fauci documents, a Senate Committee revealed that they have a copy of Big Tony's cell phone that he used during the pandemic. So this is not going to stop. Big Tony is on the run.

To learn more about Big Tony's replacement, Steven Quay, see my interview with him, and check out his book excerpt where he details the science pointing to a lab accident as the cause of the COVID pandemic.

Enjoy the summer!

ZH: See our previous reporting on Quay here

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News feeds

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