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Consumers More Optimistic On Jobs, Financial Conditions, Stock Prices As Inflation Eases: NY Fed Survey
Unlike recent extremely volatile months, consumers expectations for inflation in July barely budged as disclosed today by the latest NY Fed Survey, which showed that inflation expectations in one year fell slightly to 3.6% from 3.7% prior. Estimates for price increases in three and five years remained at 3.3% and 3%, respectively, although the 3Y inflation forecast did dip notably, if not enough to move it by a significant digit.
Gas price growth expectations rebounded partially after their sharp decline in June, increasing by 1.4% to 2.9%.
Away from inflation, labor market expectations were mixed, with the mean probability of higher US unemployment rate increasing by 1.1 ppt to 42.8%...
... and the mean probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months increasing by 0.1 ppt to 14.2 percent; however, this was offset by the mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost, which increased by 1.3% to 46.2% the highest this year. That increase was most pronounced among those who have a high school degree or less and those living in a household where income is under $ 50,000 per year.
Earlier on Friday, the government employment report showed employers cut jobs in July and the labor-force participation continued to slide. The jobless rate declined to 4.1%.
Recent data pointed to a strengthening of the American consumer. Spending rose more than expected in the three months through June, and the University of Michigan’s gauge of sentiment increased to a five-month high in July.
In the New York Fed report, more households said their current financial situation was better than last year, and more said their finances will stay about the same in 2027.
Still, the average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment in the next three months increased, especially among in households where annual income is below $ 50,000.
Consumers were also more optimistic about the stock market, with the probability that stock prices will be higher a year from now reaching the highest level of the series since April 2021.
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Hours After Murkowski Predictably Sides With Dems, Cassidy Unblocks Blanche AG Nomination
Sen. Bill Cassidy announced Friday he will support Todd Blanche's nomination for attorney general, clearing the decisive path for confirmation after two other Republican senators opposed the pick.
Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche appears before the Senate Judiciary Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington, July 15, 2026.Cassidy, a Louisiana Republican who had remained undecided amid weeks of scrutiny, made the announcement in remarks on the Senate floor. "Mr. Blanche is not perfect, and he will tell you this, but the choice is not between perfection and Mr. Blanche," he said. "It is between Mr. Blanche and another acting attorney general who may not run the department effectively under President Trump and who indeed may not be as good as Mr. Blanche." He added: "All considered, I will vote for Mr. Blanche. I'll be criticized for this vote. What's new?"
The decision came hours after RINO Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) declared she would not support Blanche. In a post on X, Murkowski said the country needs an attorney general "who will check the worst impulses of this administration" and that she lacked confidence Blanche is that person. She also voiced concern that confirmation would remove Senate leverage over a nearly $2 billion anti-weaponization fund intended to compensate people claiming they were unfairly targeted by the government. "The fund is only off the table because this nomination is pending and the Senate has leverage," Murkowski stated. "Once we vote, that will end, and there is no telling what the future holds."
Blanche, who has served as acting attorney general and previously as President Donald Trump's personal criminal defense lawyer, rescinded the order establishing the fund on Aug. 2. The move formed part of an agreement with Sens. Thom Tillis (R-NC) and John Cornyn (R-TX) that allowed the Senate Judiciary Committee to advance the nomination to the full Senate. Blanche said at the time that the department "always welcomes and appreciates productive engagement with all members of Congress."
Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), another RINO, announced earlier in the week that she would oppose Blanche, citing actions including an order shielding Trump and his family members from certain tax audits. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) remains absent while 'recovering from a fall at home', with no clear timeline for his return.
Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority. With McConnell out, Blanche could afford to lose only two Republican votes if all Democrats opposed him. Collins and Murkowski provided those two "no" votes. Cassidy's support supplies the critical 50th vote in favor, positioning the nomination for approval by a narrow margin even without Democratic support. All 47 Democrats are expected to vote against Blanche.
Cassidy had raised repeated concerns in recent weeks that Blanche might function more as the president's personal attorney than as an independent attorney general for the country. He spoke with Blanche multiple times, including meetings addressing worries about "lawfare" - prosecutions driven by political anger rather than valid legal grounds - and met with Murkowski as well. Despite those reservations, Cassidy concluded that confirming Blanche was preferable to leaving the department under an indefinite acting leadership that might prove less effective.
Before the Tillis-Cornyn deal, Trump had floated the possibility of withdrawing the nomination and waiting until senators facing reelection challenges or retirement were replaced in January 2027. Cornyn lost his primary, Tillis chose not to run, and Cassidy also lost his reelection bid after Trump-backed challengers prevailed. Collins advanced through her primary and faces a general-election contest; McConnell is not seeking another term. Murkowski's term continues until early 2029.
Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) on Capitol Hill in Washington on March 18, 2021. Susan Walsh/Getty Images Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 11:30