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Bulgaria's Former Pro-Russian President Set For Landsllde Election Win
Just as Europe's neoliberal establishment was celebrating the downfall of Hungary's Orban and his replacement with... another hard-line ant- immigrationist, it got some bad news on Sunday, as Bulgaria's pro-Russian former President Rumen Radev was set for a runaway victory in the election and may even secure a parliamentary majority in the poorest EU state, exit polls showed, potentially ending years of weak coalition governments and altering the European Union member's foreign policy.
Rumen Radev, former Bulgarian president and leader of Progressive Bulgaria coalition, votes during the parliamentary election, in Sofia, Bulgaria, April 19, 2026. ReutersAn updated exit poll conducted by Sofia-based Alpha Research showed Radev's Progressive Bulgaria with 44%, far ahead of the long-dominant GERB party, led by former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, at 12.5%.
If confirmed, the performance, which outstripped opinion polls, would mark one of the strongest results by a single party in a generation, sideline a party that has ruled on and off for decades, and may see an end to the instability that has resulted in eight elections in five years.
"Progressive Bulgaria won decisively. This is a victory of hope over distrust, a victory of freedom over fear, and finally, if you will, a victory of morality," Radev said of the exit poll results during a press conference.
Radev, a eurosceptic and former fighter pilot who opposes military support for Ukraine's war effort against Moscow, stepped down from the presidency in January to run in the parliamentary election, which comes after mass protests forced out the previous government in December.
According to Reuters, Radev rode a wave of frustration with political instability in the Balkan country of 6.5 million people, where voters are sick of corruption and veteran parties that have dominated politics for decades. Alpha Research put turnout at 47% with one hour of voting to go, up from the 39% total in the last election in October 2024.
"There is now an opportunity for the things people have been hoping to see change to actually become visible," Evelina Koleva, a manager at digital marketing company in Sofia, told Reuters.
Final election results are expected on Monday.
In his campaign, Radev drew comparisons with Hungary's pro-Kremlin former Prime Minister Viktor Orban when he talked about improving relations with Moscow and resuming the free flow of Russian oil and gas into Europe. He also criticized the EU for relying too heavily on renewable energy.
It is not clear how much his views will impact the foreign policy of Bulgaria, a NATO member on the EU's southeastern flank which joined the euro zone in January - a move Radev has criticised.
He said he would be willing to work on judicial reform with the pro-European reformist We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB) coalition, which came third in the Alpha Research exit polls with 11.3%. A minority government was also an option in the 240-seat parliament, Radev said.
"Bulgaria will make efforts to continue its European path," he said. "But a strong Bulgaria and strong Europe... needs pragmatism because Europe has fallen victim to its own ambition to be a moral leader in a world without rules."
GERB's Borissov appeared to concede in a post on Facebook, but added a note of caution: "To win the elections is one thing; to govern is quite another. Elections decide who comes first, but negotiations will decide who governs."
Bulgaria has developed rapidly since the fall of communism in 1989 and joined the European Union in 2007. Life expectancy has risen sharply, unemployment is the lowest in the EU, and the economy has greater safeguards since joining the euro zone in January. But it lags behind other EU countries in many metrics, and graft remains endemic, including in elections, where vote-buying is rife.
The cost of living has become a particular issue since Bulgaria adopted the euro. The previous government fell amid protests against a new budget proposing tax increases and higher social security contributions.
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Washington's Renewed Russian Oil Sanctions Waiver Will Help Their Shared Indian Partner
Both benefit from this since the US wants to avoid India sliding into turmoil amidst the global energy crisis and possibly offsetting its envisaged role as a counterweight of sorts to China while more energy revenue from India preemptively averts Russia’s potentially disproportionate dependence on China.
The Treasury Department renewed the US’ Russian oil sanctions waiver on Friday two days after Secretary Scott Bessent said that this wouldn’t happen.
It remains unclear what exactly accounts for this flip-flop, but it’s possible that Trump 2.0 concluded that a deal with Iran might not be reached as soon as some optimists expected, so it’s better to keep Russian oil on the global market for another month to maintain global economic stability. Russia and the US’ shared Indian partner gains the most from this.
The IMF recently assessed that India will remain the world’s fastest-growing major economy for this year and the next at 6.5% growth in both, and maintaining this is imperative for both Russia’s and the US’ interests. That’s because India balances between both, having been perceived as tilting a bit closer towards the US in February after the interim Indo-US trade deal was agreed to but then recalibrating back to Russia last month due to the global systemic consequences of the Third Gulf War.
As was explained here in March when the US issued its Russian oil sanctions waiver for India before making it global, “The new world order that it envisages has India playing a prominent geo-economic and geopolitical role, especially vis-à-vis China, ergo why it temporarily waived the sanctions on Russian oil purchases in order to avoid India sliding into turmoil and possibly offsetting this scenario if it didn’t.” As for Russia, it supplies India not just to make a profit, but also to advance its own strategic goals.
These relate to relying on India as an alternative pressure valve from Western sanctions pressure for preemptively averting potentially disproportionate dependence on China and bolstering India’s new tri-multipolarity balancing act for accelerating the global systemic transition to complex multipolarity. Far from feeling like India “betrayed” it as Pepe Escobar falsely claimed last month, Russia recently offered to supply India with as much energy as it wants, which it obviously wouldn’t do if it felt “betrayed”.
On that topic, India had scaled back its import of Russian oil in January to 1.06 million barrels per day amidst speculation about its compliance with US sanctions as its trade talks with the US were nearing their end, but then nearly doubled this last month. According to the Times of India citing Kpler, “India’s purchases of Russian crude reached 1.98 million barrels per day in March”. April’s were 1.57 million barrels per day but are expected to rise next month after maintenance at a major refinery is completed.
India is therefore expected to remain the primary beneficiary of the US’ renewed sanctions waiver, which advances the US’ and Russia’s goals that were earlier described, but the US is also expected to end this policy and resume its secondary sanctions threats against Russia’s oil clients in the event of peace with Iran. Lavrov warned the world last month about Trump 2.0’s plans for global dominance, especially in the energy industry, which could take the form of pushing through the “DROP Act” in pursuit of this goal.
It’s premature to predict whether India would comply with future US pressure to once again scale back its import of Russian oil since it’s required to fuel its economic rise much more than the interim Indo-US trade deal is. At the same time, if Pakistan helps mediate a US-Iranian peace deal, India might want to remain in the US’ good graces to prevent the US from pivoting to Pakistan at its expense.
The interplay between these four and China, the US’ strategic rival, will determine the future of regional geopolitics.
Tyler Durden Sun, 04/19/2026 - 22:10