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The Treaty Of Versailles

Zero Rss
1 month 4 weeks ago
The Treaty Of Versailles

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Yesterday, President Trump signed the US-Iran MoU in Versailles. It’s not a treaty, but the parallel with the one signed by Germany there on June 28, 1919, is notable: post-WW1, French Marshal Foch is widely credited with saying, “This is not a peace. It is an armistice for twenty years,” because he saw it as too lenient on the loser of that war.

‘Bravo’ says Macron after Trump signs Iran MoU at Versailles dinner. ‘Great job’ pic.twitter.com/5nDjGku4xS

— Danny Kemp (@dannyctkemp) June 17, 2026

This MoU is also lenient on Iran, who thinks it won, and again doesn’t look like peace, just an armistice for 20 weeks – which ends two days after the US midterm elections. Indeed, even as Trump was touting the importance of the deal to avoid “economic catastrophe,” he underlined he’ll bomb Iran again if they don’t honor it.

Yet what they honor depends on whose MoU version you read. The 14-point text the US released to CNN differs in important regards from what Bloomberg was running with and the Iranian version:

  • Point 1: There is a link to Lebanon but not necessarily one that forces an Israeli withdrawal. The text calls for the “immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts”, and “ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon”, which technically a temporary Israeli security presence does not prevent any more than heavily armed Hezbollah --counter to UN resolutions and the government’s proclamations-- does. Regardless, the IDF is so far saying it won’t withdraw.
  • Point 5: The US says Iran “will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge, for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa.” Iran says it will charge on day 61, but can that also be read that the passage is for 60 days, which would then need to be extended? The placing of a comma there could be the literal meme ‘NO MORE WAR’ > ‘NO, MORE WAR.’ The text also says Iran “will conduct dialog with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.” Iran is taking that to mean that it can charge ‘service fees’; yet international law and GCC states may think otherwise when this is discussed.
  • Point 8: The two sides “have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph seven, with the minimum methodology to be down blended on site under the supervision of the IAEA.” That additional clause is key, and while a step back vs. earlier US uranium demands is a clear deliverable else this all falls apart. Is Iran going to blink here?

Trump also thanked China and Russia for remaining “neutral” in the war, adding “it’s OK” for Iran to have some ballistic missiles, as the Wall Street Journal estimates Iran could earn up $60bn from oil revenues ahead. What that’s spent on (reconstruction, Chinese or Russian arms, or shaheed drone factories to use locally and send to Russia, etc.) is also critical.

Understandably, Iran hawks are lamenting this all as a “disaster” or “catastrophe.” Even Bloomberg underlines what was flagged here months ago: if this MoU is a TACO not a can-kicking exercise until November, it will “unravel geopolitics”, the US creating a power vacuum others will try to fill.

That’s as South Korea’s President Lee just asked Trump to solve the North Korea issue… but they already have a nuke, so what do they get given – access to Anthropic AI?

As all is in flux, the US is also working with Europe to again back Ukraine, whose drone tech now means they hold some good cards, even as the EU reopens official communication channels with the Kremlin. It seems likely that US sanctions could soon go back on Russian oil, which would see the energy complex reshuffled again.

In market terms, the IEA is now seeing a gradual Hormuz recovery tipping into a significant 2027 oil surplus, flipping the narrative entirely – unless war restarts in 20 weeks. Most things remain a passenger to that dynamic.

Ironically, but as expected, the market is trading that possible Mou TACO as dollar positive even as it actually undermines the global architecture that holds the dollar up: but since when did FX look at the long term?

In other geoeconomics, as Europe seems set for a sustained trade war vs. China ahead, the G7 agreed to set up a critical minerals alliance platform to cut their reliance on China – which, as explained here before, logically implies trade decoupling downstream too and the emergence of geopolitical trade blocs.

Meanwhile, in a changing world, the Fed under Chair Warsh is ripping treaties up, not signing them. As our US strategist notes, the FOMC left rates unchanged as expected, with an easing bias dropped, but with an unusually short statement. Indeed, Warsh just terminated forward guidance – which is arguably not such a bad idea given what happens in the Middle East is pivotal to what happens to inflation, and central banks have no idea at all about what will transpire there(?)

In cyclical terms, the June Summary of Economic Projections had already revealed that half of the FOMC participants (who submitted a forecast) expected to hike before the end of the year. Warsh did not submit his.

More importantly, in structural terms, Warsh announced the establishment of five task forces on: Fed communications (is so much needed?); the balance sheet (is so much needed?); improving data (more, better is needed, and Warsh prefers real-time numbers over backwards looking surveys); productivity and jobs (will AI allow for rate cuts?); and inflation frameworks (where things will get even more interesting).

Just as many suspect there is more drama ahead in Hormuz, and that it will never go back to being what it was until recently, the same may be true for the Fed.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 10:40
Tyler Durden

Accenture Crashes Most On Record As AI Threatens Consulting Demand

Zero Rss
1 month 4 weeks ago
Accenture Crashes Most On Record As AI Threatens Consulting Demand

Accenture shares crashed by the most on record in premarket trading on a confluence of issues. First, the company's fourth-quarter revenue outlook missed Bloomberg consensus estimates and third-quarter bookings declined, reinforcing investors' belief that consulting demand is declining in the era of AI adoption across corporate America, which is wreaking havoc in the white-collar job market.

The global consulting and technology services company, which helps large corporations and governments with strategy, IT, cloud migration, cybersecurity, and more, guided August-quarter revenue to a range of $17.75 billion to $18.4 billion, below the $18.47 billion figure that analysts tracked by Bloomberg were forecasting. Third-quarter bookings fell to $19.3 billion, down from $19.7 billion a year earlier, while revenue rose to $18.7 billion, slightly below estimates. EPS increased 9% to $3.80.

Here's a snapshot of 3Q earnings, courtesy of Bloomberg:

EPS $3.80 vs. $3.49 y/y

Revenue $18.7 billion, +5.6% y/y, estimate $18.76 billion

  • Communications, Media & Technology revenue $3.22 billion, +10% y/y, estimate $3.2 billion
  • Financial Services revenue $3.49 billion, +6.4% y/y, estimate $3.54 billion
  • Product revenue $5.67 billion, +6.1% y/y, estimate $5.67 billion

Health & Public Service revenue $3.85 billion, +1.8% y/y, estimate $3.82 billion

  • Resources revenue $2.50 billion, +3.4% y/y, estimate $2.54 billion

Bookings $19.32 billion, -1.9% y/y, estimate $20.66 billion

  • Consulting new bookings $10.26 billion, +13% y/y, estimate $9.54 billion
  • Managed Services new bookings $9.06 billion, -15% y/y, estimate $11.12 billion

Gross margin 32.8% vs. 32.9% y/y, estimate 32.9%

Free cash flow $3.60 billion, +2.9% y/y

Operating cash flow $3.79 billion, +2.8% y/y, estimate $3.06 billion

Snapshot of 4Q forecast:

Sees revenue $17.75 billion to $18.4 billion, estimate $18.47 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)

Sees revenue +1% to +5%

Full-Year Forecast:

Sees revenue +3% to +4%, saw +3% to +5%

Sees adjusted EPS $13.78 to $13.90, saw $13.65 to $13.90

Sees effective tax rate 24% to 25%, saw 23.5% to 25.5%

Still sees operating cash flow $11.5 billion to $12.2 billion

Still sees free cash flow $10.8 billion to $11.5 billion

Beyond earnings, one major issue plaguing Accenture is investor confidence in the business model. Morgan Stanley downgraded Accenture to Equal-weight from Overweight and slashed its price target to $177 from $240, arguing that the anticipated boost to IT services spending from artificial intelligence investments has yet to materialize, as enterprises continue to prioritize AI projects over traditional discretionary technology spending.

Crucially, "we are not seeing the budget growth inflection we had previously expected," the analysts wrote.

Morgan Stanley is not the first to sound the alarm on declining IT consulting demand. In March, Jefferies analyst Surinder Thind told clients there was limited evidence of a recovery in customer appetite, directly contradicting management's upbeat commentary.

Accenture shares crashed the most on record, down 16% in the early cash session. 

What goes up must go down. 

Emergence of OpenAI's ChatGPT (news headlines) vs. ACN stock price. 

According to Bloomberg data, Wall Street analysts have 17 "Buy" ratings, 12 "Neutral" ratings, and zero "Sell" ratings on the stock. The 12-month average price target is $236.

Thind called the latest earnings disappointing. "Questions around the resiliency of demand in an AI-first world are likely to be amplified," he said, adding, "especially in light of recent advancements in AI models and agentic capabilities."

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 10:10
Tyler Durden

Both Parents Work Full-Time In Majority Of Families, Census Data Show

Zero Rss
1 month 4 weeks ago
Both Parents Work Full-Time In Majority Of Families, Census Data Show

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Both parents work full-time in more than half of couples with children under 18, according to newly analyzed data.

Fifty-two percent of couples comprised of a mother and father work full-time jobs as of 2025, according to the Pew Research Center analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau released on June 16.

That percentage is an increase from 46 percent in 2015 and 31 percent in 1975.

Black mothers are still the most likely to be in a couple where both she and the father work, according to an analysis broken down by race. Sixty percent of black mothers are in such a partnership, down slightly from 64 percent in 2000.

Majorities of white, 54 percent, and Asian, 52 percent, women with children are for the first time in couples comprised of two working parents. Hispanic women are still more likely to be in a couple with only one working parent.

Mothers with lower levels of education are the most likely to be in a couple in which the dad works full-time, and the mom is not employed, according to the analysis.

That figure was 30 percent for mothers with, at most, some college education, compared to 21 percent for mothers with bachelor’s degrees and 11 percent for mothers with postgraduate degrees.

Across all couples with minor children, the percentage in which the father works full-time and the mother is not employed declined from 42 percent in 1975 to 23 percent in 2025.

In another 15 percent of couples, the father works full-time and the mother works part-time. In five percent, the father works part-time or is not employed, and the mother has a full-time job. And in the remaining five percent, there is some other arrangement.

Many parents view their family’s financial situation as positive, according to a Pew survey conducted in March, provided the mother works at least part-time. For parents in couples where the dad works full time, and the mother does not have a job, only 19 percent said their financial situation is positive, and 41 percent said it is negative.

Adults in those couples were the most likely to say that the work arrangement was positive for their children’s well-being. Eighty-five percent did. Just 49 percent of parents in couples where both mothers and fathers work full-time answered the same.

Some 52 percent of the respondents also said their job makes it harder to be a good parent, and 45 percent said that being a parent has made it difficult to advance at work.

Additionally, 62 percent of mothers who work full-time expressed frustration with balancing work and family responsibilities, compared with 47 percent of fathers who work full-time.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 10:00
Tyler Durden

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