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Here Comes QE Lite: Yields, Dollar Tumble, Gold Spikes After Treasury Unexpectedly Doubles Size Of Long-End Treasury Buybacks

Over the past several years, one of the more amusing debates gripping the market's Fed-watchers was whether the Fed's treasury buyback auctions were a form of soft QE, with this website consistently arguing that - contrary to what washed out ex-Bridgewater traders with a newsletter to sell may tell you - Treasury buybacks were just that when it comes to what matters such as market reaction, to wit:

*TREASURY SAYS IT'S EVALUATING ENHANCEMENTS TO BUYBACK PROGRAM

"Not QE"

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 30, 2025

*TREASURY INCREASES LIQUIDITY BUYBACK TOTAL TO $30B FROM $15B

"Not QE 2.0" is growing

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 31, 2024

TREASURY DEBT BUYBACK TARGETS COUPONS MATURING IN 2031 - 2034

Next QE rehearsal

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 24, 2024

And moments ago, Scott Bessent finally resolved the debate when, with 30Y yields at 20 year highs and threatening to blow out higher, the US Treasury shocked markets, sparked a meltdown in yields and surge in equity futures and gold when it announced at 8:30am that they will be "increasing, by at least double, the size of liquidity support buyback operations for longer-dated nominal coupon securities (the 10-year to 20-year sector and the 20-year to 30-year sector). The current maximum size of $2 billion per operation will be at least $4 billion per operation."

This change will be effective September 9, 2026 and will be in effect for the remainder of this refunding quarter (through November 4, 2026). The releases noted that the Treasury will provide more information about future buyback sizes at the next Quarterly Refunding, scheduled for November 4, 2026, in other words it has the benefit of 3 months of "NOT QE" without having to even specify its thinking.

According to the statement, "this increase in buyback operation sizes reflects Treasury’s desire to provide greater liquidity support in longer-dated nominal sectors where there is consistent strong sponsorship from market participants, as evidenced by the significant volume of high-quality offers Treasury routinely receives in longer-dated buyback operations."

Translation: Bessent panicked and the justification that there is no liquidity is just a strawman, with the Treasury now freaking out that the demand for AI paper is crowding out demand for Treasuries as we have been warning for the past several weeks, and as we predicted a week ago when looking at the blowing out Treasury skew, "Bessent will be busy.:"

Bessent will be busy https://t.co/0BslbpgnLs pic.twitter.com/kreaTPS1rh

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 11, 2026

It took just one week for him to show just how busy he would be.

The market reaction was instant and violent, with 30y yields down 6bps in an instant on the headlines, having been down 2bp prior,  This brings Wednesday's yield decline to 8bp total

US 2s30s is 7bp flatter on the day and 10s30s 2bp flatter.

Naturally, with Bessent panicking, stock futures surged...

... but more importantly, gold is breaking out bigly....

... as the market realizes that with total US debt about to hit $40 trillion...

so close.... pic.twitter.com/edFs1kzVZB

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 18, 2026

... it all gets much worse from here. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/19/2026 - 14:40

Texas Hits New Peak Demand Record, Faces 80% Supply Shortfall By 2030

By Marlene Wilden of UtilityDive

• Peak demand in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas territory could reach 120 GW by 2030 – incredible growth of more than 30% above the new, unofficial all-time peak reached on July 22, but notably lower than ERCOT’s own forecasts, according to a market report from Ascend Analytics that was provided to Utility Dive.
• The firm cites gas turbine shortages, multi-year development timelines and interconnection bottlenecks as limiting factors preventing enough new generation from coming online to serve proposed large loads. 
• Ascend says ERCOT’s energy-only market no longer provides enough revenue certainty to finance the dispatchable generation needed to meet future demand, while persistent gaps between forward markets and actual outcomes weaken the market signals used to guide investment decisions. 

ERCOT’s large-load queue has grown by more than 200 GW since 2024, driven largely by data centers, manufacturing, cryptocurrency and industrial oil and gas development, but uncertainty remains over how much load can be safely interconnected. 

The grid operator said in April that the total 2030 load reported by transmission service providers, based on contracts and officer letters, was 208 GW. ERCOT’s adjusted load forecast put it at 138 GW.

Ascend’s estimate of 120 GW assumes delays and a 55.4% success rate for proposed loads. The firm says delays in energization and large-load attrition are making it increasingly difficult to forecast how much demand will actually materialize on ERCOT’s grid.

“Even though that appetite is enormous, if it can’t get met, it’s not coming online,” Brent Nelson, senior managing director of market intelligence at Ascend, told Utility Dive in an interview.

“The ability of the grid to add new generation is much, much smaller than the demand of queued large-load facilities,” Robert LaFaso, Ascend’s director of market intelligence, told Utility Dive. 

Both executives identified generation availability as the primary constraint. 

Nelson said some transmission challenges can be mitigated by co-locating generation and load. Developers face significant supply chain hurdles in adding those resources, particularly dispatchable plants, according to Ascend.

Ascend cites the limited number of tier-one gas turbine manufacturers as a key factor contributing to project attrition among Texas Energy Fund applicants. The firm also identifies engineering, procurement and construction capacity, high-voltage equipment and permitting as growing bottlenecks to building new generation. 

Ascend expects ERCOT’s reserve margins will remain healthy through 2026 before tightening as load growth outpaces supply additions. That shift is prompting discussion of potential market reforms, including concepts such as a “bring-your-own-new-generation” requirement for large loads. 

Nelson said such a structure could help align new demand with new supply but warned it could undermine the economics of existing merchant generators and increase policy uncertainty for investors.

For storage, the challenge is squarely financial.

“We’ve seen pullbacks from a lot of the lenders expressing drastic concerns over the past several years, where [storage projects] have not met revenue expectations, and the lending community is starting to question whether or not merchant storage is investable without firmer revenue,” LaFaso said. 

Lenders increasingly require contracted revenues rather than relying on merchant market returns, he said. Those financing challenges are compounded by ERCOT’s energy-only market design, which relies on scarcity pricing to incentivize new generation.

Scarcity revenues alone are unlikely to support investment, particularly as developers face rising costs for natural gas equipment and other infrastructure. The problem, Nelson warned, is that there are only two realistic outcomes under that structure: Either scarcity pricing fails to provide enough revenue to support new entry — leaving the system short of dispatchable capacity — or it succeeds in doing so but creates an affordability crisis by forcing consumers to pay high, volatile prices to the entire supply stack.  

The firm also said a changing generation mix could make scarcity revenues more weather- and outage-dependent, adding volatility for generators and complicating financing. It identified September as an emerging risk period due to reduced solar output from earlier sunsets and lower evening wind generation than in August. 

Ascend expects wholesale prices to rise in the near term as demand grows before stabilizing over the longer term as additional renewable generation comes online. Natural gas plants are still expected to set prices during evening ramping periods when solar output declines.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/19/2026 - 14:25

A cyclist was killed when a pick-up truck driver rammed into her in Brooklyn Tuesday, hurling her from her bike and running over her body -- before fleeing, authorities said.

FOMC Minutes Tilt Hawkish: 'Inflation Risks Skewed To The Upside' Due To AI

While today's market moves (post-Bessent's OpTwist bailout) are changing things rapidly, since the last FOMC meeting, on July 19th, where Warsh held rates (hawkishly) unchanged (in the biggest surprise to market expectations in decades) amid multiple dissents, gold, bitcoin, and oil have outperformed, the dollar and bonds have lagged, with stocks solidly green in the middle...

And rate-hike expectations have plunged, erasing the hawkish shift since Warsh's first Fed meeting (thanks mostly to weak macro since the meeting)...

With Fed-watchers up in arms about him not giving the book away (ending forward guidance), they are hoping for some signs on the tea-leaves today of The Fed's reaction function (don't hold your breath) or what they are watching (still don't hold your breath).

Market participants expected the Minutes to show that hawkish sentiment on the committee was broad-based, despite the decision to hold rates steady. That could re-energize market bets on an imminent rate hike, bets that have subsided since July’s weak jobs and retail-sales data and modest CPI inflation.

However, bear in mind that the FOMC minutes are backward-looking, of course, but the editorial process – which requires sign-off from top officials – allows the Fed to selectively underscore certain messages. Given the sharp upward movement in long-term bond yields recently (before today) and concerns about Fed credibility, many are expecting officials likely to give the minutes a hawkish edit.

So what do Warsh and his new pals at The Eccles Building want us to know?

As expected, a hawkish tilt to the Minutes:

As we already knew, the members were mixed:

• Most participants assessed higher rates would likely be necessary if inflation did not fall; 

• “Many participants assessed that policy tightening would likely be necessary if inflation did not decline,” the minutes said.

• Most participants at Fed's July 28-29 meeting supported keeping interest rates unchanged, but several favored an increase

• Various participants said tighter financial conditions over intermeeting period reflected strong economic growth and expectations for Fed to adopt more restrictive stance before long

• A few of the participants who favored raising rates at the meeting judged doing so would likely help forestall need for further hikes

Fewer meetings possible:

The minutes also showed Warsh raised the idea of reducing the committee’s annual number of policy meetings from eight to six.

“The Chairman observed that six scheduled meetings per year, held roughly every two months, would allow more information to accumulate between meetings than under current practice and provide policymakers and the staff more time to consider strategic monetary policy issues,” the minutes said.

Warsh then asked for input from the committee on the idea. The minutes made clear the number of meetings would not be adjusted this year. A reduction in the number of policy meetings would mark a significant shift in the way the central bank operates.

It was all about inflation:

“Most participants anticipated that inflation would step down over the rest of the year as the effects of tariffs and earlier energy price increases wane, but many participants noted the possibility that inflation might be more persistently elevated,” the minutes said.

• Fed staff economic outlook showed inflation outlook was similar to one prepared for June meeting but economic outlook was 'a touch weaker'

• *FED: PARTICIPANTS JUDGED INFLATION RISKS WERE SKEWED TO UPSIDE

• *FED: SEVERAL SAW AI INVESTMENT HAVING BROADER EFFECT ON PRICES

• *FED: SEVERAL SAID TARIFF PASS-THROUGH WAS NOW LARGELY COMPLETE

• Several participants noted price increases over last year were broad based, spanning various categories of goods and services

• The record showed participants’ inflation outlooks were “highly uncertain” and the re-escalation of the Iran war “clouded the inflation outlook.”

Labor:

• Officials described the labor market as stable, with labor demand and supply in balance.

Balance Sheet

• A couple of participants noted ample-reserves regime had helped maintain orderly market functioning during brief payments outage during intermeeting period.

Interestingly, in line with his lack of forward guidance (and the potential for fewer meetings), the Minutes appeared more sparse of actionable detail than usual.

Read the full Minutes here.

 

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/19/2026 - 14:05

The boy's family is seeking "all compensatory, general, special, economic, and noneconomic damages recoverable by the Estate."

“Real Housewives of Orange County” star Emily Simpson stopped by the Page Six studio to chat with “Virtual Reali-Tea” hosts Danny Murphy and Evan Real. She reacts to the online chatter about her 50-pound weight loss and what it’s like getting hit on at the gym. “I’m 50 and mama’s still got it.” We’re spilling...

“Real Housewives of Orange County” star Emily Simpson stopped by the Page Six studio to chat with “Virtual Reali-Tea” hosts Danny Murphy and Evan Real. She reacts to the online chatter about her 50-pound weight loss and what it’s like getting hit on at the gym. “I’m 50 and mama’s still got it.” We’re spilling...

Sounds like there's a new love triangle in Port Wenn.

US May Halve Canada Metals Tariffs As Friday Deal Deadline Looms

Summary:

• US-Canada Trade Deal Would Cut Metals Tariffs to 25%: Report
• Trump: "It's good for everybody, but our farmers are going to be thrilled. Our manufacturers are going to be thrilled."
• Trump Pauses 50% Canada Tariffs At 11th Hour, Declares "We Have A Deal"

US-Canada Trade Deal Would Cut Metals Tariffs to 25%: Report

Sources told Bloomberg that a tentative trade deal would cut US tariffs on certain Canadian steel and aluminum exports to 25% from 50%.

The report continued:

The details have yet to be finalized and are not expected to apply across the board. Different rates could apply to some derivative products that include those metals, said some of the people, who requested anonymity to discuss terms of the agreement before it is announced.

US and Canadian trade advisers continued negotiations Wednesday, less than 24 hours after President Donald Trump paused planned 50% tariffs on billions of dollars of Canadian goods for three days.

The metals concessions could help the two countries reach a broader agreement before the pause expires Friday.

President Trump earlier nodded to US concessions in the trade talks.

🚨 BOOM: President Trump just confirmed he's reached a deal with CANADA, the tariffs are paused

Keystone XL pipeline is also set to be REVIVED 👏🏻

"We've come to a deal with Canada. As you know, the 50% tariffs across the board were going on against Canada today, and they called…

— 𝑃𝑎𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑦 Donaldo Trumpo Nesara Global (@IlDonaldo20061) August 19, 2026

"Got to give something, and we're doing certain things. We're paying a high number. We're reducing it a little bit," Trump told reporters. "It's good for everybody, but our farmers are going to be thrilled. Our manufacturers are going to be thrilled."

Trump Pauses 50% Canada Tariffs At 11th Hour, Declares "We Have A Deal" 

The Canadian dollar climbed against most of its Group-of-10 peers after President Trump delayed 50% tariffs on billions of dollars of Canadian goods for three days, claiming on Truth Social that a trade deal was pending. The last-minute reprieve will ease trade tensions in North America.

"I have paused the 50% Tariffs against Canada, that were scheduled to kick in tomorrow morning for a three day period, based on the fact that Canada and the U.S.A., subject to the finalization of documents, have a DEAL! The great Keystone XL Pipeline, long ago killed by Sleepy Joe Biden, may be awoken from the grave!" Trump wrote on Truth Social late Tuesday night.

The United States Trade Representative wrote on X, "The deal will include comprehensive market access for all American goods, economic security commitments, digital trade alignment, and many important provisions that will continue to protect our market and American workers, along with our Canadian partners."

Congratulations Mr. President. The deal will include comprehensive market access for all American goods, economic security commitments, digital trade alignment, and many important provisions that will continue to protect our market and American workers, along with our Canadian… https://t.co/YSQ4rNmKAv

— United States Trade Representative (@USTradeRep) August 19, 2026

A White House proclamation explained that the tariffs were suspended after Canada committed to removing discriminatory treatment across US automobiles, dairy products, and alcohol.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney released a statement offering a more cautious view and stopped short of confirming that a final deal had been reached.

"Substantial progress has been made, although there is important work still to be done," Carney said in the statement. "While we continue this work, Canada remains focused on building a stronger, more independent, and more competitive economy at home."

Analysts at Jefferies added more color: 

Trump says U.S., Canada have trade deal, pauses new tariffs for three days Globe and Mail reported that U.S. President Donald Trump announced a tentative trade deal with Canada and paused planned 50% tariffs for three days, less than two hours before they were due to take effect. 

Trump said the agreement remains subject to final documentation and did not disclose specific terms or confirm whether the tariffs would be permanently withdrawn. 

The announcement followed intense negotiations between Canadian and U.S. officials, including multiple discussions between Prime Minister Mark Carney and Trump. 

Sources indicated negotiators believed they had developed a proposal capable of resolving the impasse, but the final decision rested with political leaders. The threatened tariffs, under Section 338, would have applied to about US$20B of Canadian exports including electronics, dairy, alcohol and wood products. Talks also covered existing Section 232 tariffs on autos, metals and forest products. 

Reports suggest the U.S. may reduce, but not fully remove, some tariffs in exchange for Canadian concessions such as lifting provincial bans on U.S. alcohol and removing certain countertariffs. 

Key sticking points remained auto and lumber tariffs, with Canada seeking exemptions for North American auto content and provinces demanding meaningful lumber relief. 

The outcome represents a significant political test for Carney, who has balanced pressure to protect Canadian interests with business demands for greater trade stability.

Scotiabank's Derek Holt provided his first take:

Great, there's a possible deal. What's in the deal? Dunno. Do I trust there is a deal because Trump said so? Not really. Do markets trust there is a deal? Not so much, as CAD only appreciated by about a quarter cent since Trump's social media post last night, CGBs are flat, and so are TSX futures. All he did was to go TACO and postpone the 50% tariffs for three days just 1¾ hours before they were to have been applied against $20 billion of imports from Canada sans CUSMA exemption. Canada's retaliation is similarly postponed. That's a positive for now, since otherwise everything would have skidded off into the ditch, but the rest is still uncertain. 

What's in the deal? Haven't a clue. Is it good for both Canada and the US? Dunno. Trump's post merely says the two countries have a deal while intimating that the Keystone XL pipeline is back on. We'll see about that, given a guarded industry toward the pipeline that has moved on given the wild unpredictability of successive US administrations, the long project timelines and the varied competing interests. 

We also have this post from the USTR that claims "comprehensive market access for all American goods, economic security commitments, digital trade alignment, and many important provisions that will continue to protect our market and American workers, along with our Canadian partners." We'll be the judge of that, not the White House.

Canadian PM Carney's post was much more measured. It noted that "substantial progress has been made, although there is important work still to be done." On that count, massive shout-outs to the Canadian team for working so tirelessly and on something so mindless as zero-sum beggar-thy-neighbour trade policies out of the US that divert precious management time by leaders and businesses away from more meaningful pursuits. You've served your country well so far.

And so we need details. What's in the agreement, what are the enforcement mechanisms, what are the timelines for implementation, and of course, how exactly comprehensive is this? Is it a meaningfully comprehensive CUSMA extension, or just the opening salvo? How much did PM Carney give away from a salability standpoint at home? The provinces will need to be briefed and their reactions and cooperation will be important. And is Trump's signature going to actually mean anything on this 'deal' given his pattern of not honouring much of what he commits to doing?

Throughout all of this I have stuck to a cautious optimist line that Canada would get a trade deal before the midterms or before the new US Congress convenes in January. The odds of this happening just went up. That has been part of a macro narrative for improved growth and modest tightening by the Bank of Canada as the case for last Fall's insurance cuts to persist would be removed at a minimum. I hope that's true, but I'll jump on the 'Let's Make a Deal' stage when I see something meaningful. Until then, post on to your heart's content, we want details!! 

If a deal that extends CUSMA and lowers uncertainty in a meaningful way were to be achieved, then it would be positive for Canadian economic growth and negligible for US growth. It would buoy market and business sentiment toward Canada. It could put at ease consumer worries. 

And be wary toward the possible confirmation bias in gloomier quarters. I wouldn't want talk to see some of the research gloomsters who were adopting a negative stance on trade and how damaging it could be to Canada's economy and markets while making rate cuts more likely then turn around and say a deal doesn't mean much. Nothing to see here. Don't want to see it because it goes against all of their other views that deliberately excluded the cautious optimists. #accountability. The BoC wouldn't dismiss a deal; amid multiple uncertainties, removing or materially dropping trade uncertainty would be another step toward modest tightening.

Trump's announcement signals possible progress ahead of the review of the North American trade agreement between the US, Canada and Mexico. The US and Canada traded $900 billion in goods and services last year. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/19/2026 - 13:59

The Skims founder layered a diamond double-strand body chain over the black string set.

The Skims founder layered a diamond double-strand body chain over the black string set.

NY Post readers discuss socialism’s growing popularity among Democrats, with several DSA-allied primary winners.

He was an excellent player for St. John’s from 1977-81, a cornerstone of the 1979 team that came within a bucket of the Final Four.

The man who floated for 12 hours off the coast of Long Beach in the dark after he fell off his jet ski described his horrifying survival story in harrowing detail Tuesday.

Previously, Cohen committed to not firing Stearns, whose contract runs through 2028.

The photographer lost his private three-year battle with ALS in August 2023.

The photographer lost his private three-year battle with ALS in August 2023.

Prosecutors In Charlie Kirk Slaying Case Say Evidence Supports Death Penalty

Authored by Janice Hisle via The Epoch Times,

Prosecutors on Aug. 18 urged a Utah judge to uphold all charges, including one carrying a potential death sentence, in the case against Charlie Kirk’s accused killer.

In their 19-page filing in Utah County’s Fourth District Court, prosecutors rebutted an Aug. 11 memo from lawyers representing the defendant, Tyler James Robinson, 23.

Robinson’s defense team had argued that evidence presented during a preliminary hearing last month failed to support the death penalty. They said that the evidence also did not establish “probable cause”—a reasonable belief that their client committed the alleged offenses. Under Utah law, that standard must be met for the case to proceed to trial.

Prosecutors counter-argued that defense lawyers ignored important facts damning to their client while misconstruing legal standards to favor him.

Further, prosecutors said evidence clearly shows that others besides Kirk were at great risk of being killed—an “aggravating” circumstance that supports a death-penalty-level charge, they argued.

A gunman, alleged to be Robinson, fatally shot Kirk in the neck on Sept. 10, 2025, as he spoke to a crowd of about 3,000 people in a courtyard at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah. Some attendees were “in the line of fire,” while other people were near Kirk, putting them in the “zone of danger,” prosecutors said.

Those basic facts show that other people’s lives were imperiled, they argued.

Defense lawyers had said, “The State has failed to show that the actual conduct created a ‘high probability’ that someone other than Mr. Kirk would be killed.”

However, prosecutors pointed out that defense lawyers made no challenge to evidence showing that Robinson “was the person who crawled to the sniper’s perch ... fired the fatal shot ... hid the rifle in a wooded area, got rid of some of the clothing he was wearing, and told his roommate to delete their texts about the shooting.”

Robinson is accused of aggravated murder, a capital offense, in the highly publicized assassination case.

Kirk was a 31-year-old father of two who founded Turning Point USA, a conservative youth political movement that spread internationally.

Prosecutors allege that Robinson targeted Kirk because he opposed Kirk’s political and religious stances.

The defendant also faces six other charges: two counts of obstructing justice, two counts of witness tampering, and a count each of causing serious bodily harm by discharging a firearm and committing violence in the presence of a child.

The next step in the case is set for Sept. 1, when the lawyers will make oral arguments to Judge Tony Graf Jr. in his courtroom in Provo, Utah.

Graf is tasked with deciding whether prosecutors provided sufficient evidence of probable cause.

In a July 28 court filing, prosecutors told the judge that a four-day preliminary hearing earlier that month produced clear-cut evidence against Robinson.

“This is likely as straight-forward a bind-over decision as this Court will ever see,” they wrote, adding: “This isn’t a close case. The State presented more than enough evidence to support a probable cause finding on all seven charges.”

Prosecutors said that the defendant admitted to “several friends, including his roommate and romantic partner, that he assassinated Charlie Kirk.”

Robinson surrendered to police following those alleged admissions, and DNA evidence links him to gun parts and other items found near the shooting site, in addition to eyewitness testimony and surveillance, they pointed out.

It is unclear whether Graf will rule immediately after the Sept. 1 hearing. Attorneys representing Kirk’s widow, Erika Kirk, requested that Graf issue his decision no later than that date.

If Graf finds probable cause, he must “bind over” the case for trial; otherwise, the judge is required to dismiss the charges—although prosecutors could resubmit the case.

Felony criminal cases may bypass a preliminary hearing when prosecutors present evidence directly to a grand jury and secure an indictment.

However, Robinson was charged under a prosecutor’s “information.” That requires prosecutors to present evidence at a preliminary hearing and obtain a judge’s probable-cause ruling unless the defendant waives that right.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/19/2026 - 13:45

WASHINGTON — Sen. Ruben Gallego is facing fresh allegations of misspending campaign funds after records show he billed $2,000 for flights for his sister-in-law and au pair — with the new details emerging as the Justice Department reportedly probes the Democrat’s possible misuse of donor contributions. Previously unreported records reviewed by The Post indicate that...

A fire cadet who died training in California's Central Valley has been identified as 20-year-old aspiring firefighter Eric Arzate.