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Pinault Jr. and his wife, Lara Cosima Henckel von Donnersmarck, welcomed their first child — a boy.

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Iran War Pushes Middle Eastern Airlines Towards $4.3BN Loss In 2026

Via Middle East Eye

As the US and Israel launched air strikes on Iran on February 28 2026, Iran struck back near US military installations in the Gulf, including in Qatar and the UAE. Several international airports were hit by Iranian strikes, including Dubai, the world's busiest for international passengers, as well as Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Bahrain. 

The UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait closed their airspaces due to safety concerns, gradually reopening them a week later as hostilities lessened. The war has had long-lasting consequences for regional aviation: falling passenger and cargo demand, fewer private jet flights, and global repercussions from high jet fuel prices. 

via AFP

The International Air Transport Association's (IATA) June outlook estimated that airlines operating from the Middle East will see a $7.2bn net profit in 2025 become a $4.3bn net loss in 2026.

Most major regional carriers have resumed operations, including Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways, but not at full capacity. Emirates CEO Tim Clark told the Financial Times in June his planes were flying at three-quarters capacity. 

Conversely, most European and Asian airlines' flights in the region remain suspended. Air France expects to resume in late August and Lufthansa in September, while British Airways, Cathay Pacific and Singapore Airlines are all targeting late October. 

Air Canada is not planning to resume before mid-January 2027, and many others have not announced a restart date at all. Regional airspaces have reopened, but are still facing intermittent closures and disruptions. 

The EU Aviation Safety Agency’s most recent bulletin advises operators to "avoid the airspace of Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE and part of the Gulf of Oman until 31 August 2026".

The result is limited choice for travelers. For a one-week round trip between the UAE and London in September, the only options are Emirates to Dubai, Etihad to Abu Dhabi, or Air Arabia to Sharjah, while to fly between Doha and Tokyo on those same dates, only Qatar Airways is available.

Business under threat

Gulf airlines organize their activity around a hub-and-spoke model concentrating traffic at a central base and operating flights worldwide from there. Passengers connect onward from the main hub, offering connections that are otherwise unavailable or sometimes cheaper fares than direct flights. 

This model has long relied on the Gulf’s strategic position between Europe and Asia, forming what analysts describe as a "bridge" between the two continents. But the war has put this model at risk.

Naveed Kapadia, an aviation lecturer at Buckinghamshire New University, told Middle East Eye that while competition for airlines such as Qatar Airways and Emirates is “greatly reduced”, allowing them to “capture market share and maintain stronger fares”, they remain “connecting carriers whose economics depend on moving large volumes of passengers efficiently through Dubai and Doha”.

Kapadia said IATA’s June data showed Middle Eastern passenger demand fell 13.9 percent year-on-year, while direct traffic between Europe and Asia rose 11 percent, already revealing a strain on the Gulf carrier’s model.

This leads to cost increases across the board. “Where flights must use longer or less efficient routings, airlines face higher fuel burn, longer crew duty periods and reduced aircraft utilisation,” Kapadia said. The extra fuel many now carry in case of disruption also directly limits “passenger or cargo payload that can be carried”.

The hub-and-spoke model leaves airlines susceptible to disruption, as aircraft and crews can be stranded far away, causing cascading delays and cancellations across the entire schedule.

Emirates innovates  

Emirates has been innovating to win back the customers it had before the war, as many are hesitant to book flights connecting through Dubai in case hostilities resume.

One measure is an unprecedented travel insurance policy, offering comprehensive coverage even in case of conflict-related cancellation. Until now, most travel insurance voided cover in the event of war-related disruption, leaving passengers to absorb the costs themselves. 

The policy aims to prevent passengers from being stranded, with Emirates offering to fly them home on other airlines if needed. CEO Tim Clark told the Financial Times the aim was to guarantee “we would get you back irrespective [of whether it's] on Emirates or not”.

Iran war hands Syria windfall as airlines reroute over its airspace https://t.co/cVX6ipeefi pic.twitter.com/UjNM6FbOAW

— Mutlu Civiroglu (@mutludc) June 2, 2026

Dubai has also been trying to reboost tourism more broadly, offering complimentary packages for visitors invited by Emirati nationals and free hotel stays for long connecting flights.

Cargo demand lags 

Cargo carriers have also been impacted by regional disruptions. Kapadia said Middle East cargo demand grew roughly a third slower than the rest of the industry’s, at 5.6 percent year on year, behind the global rate of 8.5 percent.

Citing IATA figures, Kapadia said traffic between Europe and the Middle East remained 41.1 percent below the previous year, while Asia-Middle East traffic was down 4.1 percent.

He added that while “disruption to maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is creating demand for faster alternatives, particularly for urgent, high-value and time-sensitive shipments”, this was not a "straightforward windfall" for Gulf-based cargo airlines.

Middle Eastern carriers such as Qatar Airways Cargo and Emirates SkyCargo account for around 13 percent of global air cargo traffic.  “The more important question,” he said, “is whether they can convert short-term urgency into sustained and profitable cargo flows.”

Private jets staying  

Similar disruptions have also been observed in the private jet sector. Nick Koscinski, an aviation analyst at WINGX, told Middle East Eye that as of 10 August, overall private jet traffic originating in Gulf countries was down 46.5 percent since the war began. 

“The vast majority of flights stayed within the Middle East region,” he said, though volumes there are “still down considerably”. Europe remains the second most common destination from Gulf origins, but Gulf-to-Europe flights are down 41.0 percent.

Koscinski said Qatar Executive, one of the top Gulf-based private jet operators, had been more resilient than UAE or Saudi Arabia-based competitors.  Total flights are down 6.7 percent since the war began, against 28.7 percent for a comparable UAE-based operator and 39.0 percent for a Saudi one. 

Koscinski said operators “likely have some ability to pass increased operating costs, like fuel spikes, through to the consumer via surcharges”, but lags in repricing and “softer demand overall” mean they will still take a financial hit.

Fuel costs squeeze margins

Jet fuel prices fell 20 percent in June as Gulf oil flows temporarily improved, Kapadia said, but remained “45.8% higher than a year earlier”. IATA forecasts the 2026 jet fuel price average will run 70 percent above 2025 levels.

Kapadia expects “Gulf airfares to remain elevated and volatile rather than rise uniformly” because “airlines will try to recover higher fuel and disruption costs through fares to some extent, but they cannot pass on every additional cost without weakening demand, particularly among price-sensitive leisure travellers.”

Low-cost carriers around the world have been particularly vulnerable to the jump in fuel cost: US-based Spirit Airlines ceased operations on 2 May 2026, while Air Baltic and Wizz Air face growing bankruptcy risk and are forced to restructure operations. 

A McKinsey report found that around 70 percent of jet fuel surcharges are passed directly to consumers, with airline margins recovering only briefly when fuel prices fall. It said the economic pressure will force airlines to retire older aircraft, cut less-booked routes, and further trim overhead costs.

Not every carrier is equally impacted. Israel’s national airline, El Al, has recently reported record profits, more than double the previous year.

Many passengers have criticized the “outrageous” fares, as the continued flight suspension by international carriers leaves the airline in a near-monopoly.

Harsha Jaison, an aviation consultant at ICF, told Middle East Eye the conflict has set a precedent that will probably outlast it. “Airport investment deals, geopolitical risk is increasingly being reflected in downside scenarios, valuation assumptions and risk premiums,” she said.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/17/2026 - 20:05

Kayley Smith can be our second stew any day!

New York Liberty have won 9 of their last 11 games, but are they really back to looking like a championship contender? Dexter Henry and Madeline Kenney break down the Liberty’s recent surge and the biggest questions surrounding New York as the postseason gets closer. They discuss Satou Sabally stepping away from the team to...

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Record Ground Beef Prices May Finally Be Breaking Consumer Demand

Last week's retail sales report provided fresh evidence that the K-shaped economy is buckling, with national average gasoline prices still printing above $4 a gallon and discretionary spending weakening. Consumer stress is now surfacing in the grocery aisle: as beef prices hover near record highs, Americans are beginning to trade down to cheaper proteins.

Bloomberg cites new data from Chicago-based market research company Circana, showing that beef sales volumes declined .3% during the 13 weeks through mid-July. Volumes had risen about 5% during the same period in each of the previous two years. The decline is notable because it occurred during the peak grilling season around Memorial Day and July Fourth.

Source: Bloomberg

Data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) show that the national average price of ground beef in the supermarket is hovering just below $7 per pound, a record high, as a prolonged cattle shortage shows no signs of abating anytime soon.

The Trump administration has focused on easing elevated beef prices through increased imports, but any meaningful relief will take years. The US cattle herd remains near its lowest level in more than five decades, while imported animals must be raised for months before entering the food supply.

Bank of America analysts recently cited Oklahoma State University agricultural economist Derrell Peel, who warned that the US cattle cycle is unlikely to improve anytime soon and that beef prices are poised to remain elevated through at least next year.

Read:

• When Will The Cattle Cycle Turn? BofA Has Answers For Beef Lovers

We noted in late July that one of the most overlooked affordable proteins is pork, which averaged $4.81 per pound in mid-June, compared with $7.95 per pound for ground beef, while pork chops cost roughly one-third as much as beef steak, according to Bloomberg, citing NielsenIQ data.

"Consumers are stretched," Chris DuBois, an executive vice president at data-analytics firm Circana, told Bloomberg. "It's not always just about the price of food, there's the price of life that hits, so that puts some of the pressure on total volume in the store."

Last week (view report), retail sales in July were a big disappointment, with discretionary categories seeing spending pullbacks. Notably, lower-income spending held up well, while higher-income spending cooled modestly.

July retail sales weakness was driven by a plunge in non-discretionary spending by higher income households https://t.co/TbbJ6WB81K pic.twitter.com/dDUdAOGawX

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 14, 2026

With that said, demand destruction levels for beef may finally be hitting, which is a promising sign of early rebalancing. However, consumers will not be thrilled, as they will have to trade down to cheaper proteins such as chicken and pork.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/17/2026 - 19:40

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Charges Against Palisades Fire Arson Suspect Revised

City News Service via The Epoch Times,

LOS ANGELES - The man accused of setting a blaze that grew into the deadly Palisades Fire, the most destructive fire in Los Angeles history, is facing one less criminal charge, with federal prosecutors obtaining a revised indictment in the case.

Jonathan Rinderknecht, 29, is posed after his arrest on charges that he intentionally ignited the Pacific Palisades fire in Los Angeles, before his first court appearance in Orlando, Fla., on Oct. 8, 2025. Department of Justice/Handout via Reuters

In June, a federal court jury deadlocked 10-2 in favor of acquitting Jonathan Rinderknecht on three arson-related charges stemming from the 2025 firestorm, which prosecutors say began on New Year's Day as the Lachman Fire, which smoldered for a week before Santa Ana winds re-ignited it into the Palisades Fire. In light of the deadlock, a judge declared a mistrial, but prosecutors vowed to retry the case.

The Palisades Fire killed 12 people, burned 23,448 acres, cost billions in damage and insurance claims, and ruined much of the exclusive Pacific Palisades community, destroying about 6,800 structures.

Rinderknecht was originally charged with three federal arson counts: destruction of property by means of fire, arson affecting property used in interstate commerce, and timber set afire. On Aug. 13, however, prosecutors filed a superseding indictment with only two charges - destruction of property by means of fire and arson affecting property used in interstate commerce.

In the new indictment, the first charge refers only to Rinderknecht's alleged setting of the Lachman Fire, rather than the Lachman and Palisades fires.

Rinderknecht is due in court for a status conference this week, with a re-trial tentatively set for October.

First Assistant U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli insisted after the mistrial was declared in June that prosecutors would eventually win a conviction.

"The evidence is strong that Jonathan Rinderknecht is responsible for igniting the fire on January 1, 2025, which eventually became the Palisades Fire," Essayli wrote on X. "We fully intend to retry this case before a new jury and obtain guilty verdicts on all charged counts."

Defense attorney Steven Haney told reporters outside court, however, that his client is innocent, and a retrial won't give prosecutors a better result. He said prosecutors "failed miserably" in their efforts to prove their case.

"If they want to re-try it again, we can re-try it again," Haney said. "If Bill Essayli wants to cheerlead from the sidelines, maybe he should come in and try the case himself next time."

He said a re-trial would likely end up with Rinderknecht being acquitted.

"Ten-to-two is an overwhelming message from the jury that the government failed and did not have enough evidence to prove their case," Haney said.

Rinderknecht remains in federal custody pending the new trial.

During the 10-day trial earlier this year, the jury heard evidence that the deadly Palisades Fire was a "holdover" fire - a continuation of the Lachman Fire that began early in the morning on New Year's Day 2025. Although firefighters quickly suppressed the Lachman Fire - named for a street near the Skull Rock Trailhead - the fire continued to smolder and burn underground within the root structure of dense vegetation.

On Jan. 7, 2025, heavy winds caused the underground fire to re-surface and spread above ground in what became known as the Palisades Fire, which caused widespread damage in Pacific Palisades and Malibu.

Prosecutors used witness statements, video surveillance, cell phone data, and analysis of fire dynamics and patterns at the scene to try to show Rinderknecht intentionally set the Lachman Fire and then lied about it to investigators. The evidence was largely circumstantial.

Haney argued that no hard evidence tied his client to arson, and the Lachman and Palisades fires were two separate events. The first fire was likely caused by errant New Year's Eve fireworks, he told jurors, and the second blaze could've been arson.

According to Haney, Rinderknecht was on the trail near the Hidden Buddha clearing where the Lachman Fire was thought to have started, but the part-time Uber driver did nothing more than call 911 to report it.

Haney insisted the Lachman Fire "could've started before Jonathan even arrived [on the scene]. Nobody knows for sure when it started. Everyone is guessing. A man's on trial and nobody knows when the fire started."

Prosecutors told jurors Rinderknecht, driven by anger, loneliness and a thirst for revenge against the wealthy, used a grill lighter to ignite hilltop vegetation around midnight on Dec. 31, 2024 at a remote, deserted area adjacent to the Pacific Palisades' Summit neighborhood. That fire ultimately exploded into the deadly conflagration that wiped out much of the upscale community six days later.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/17/2026 - 19:15