Goldman's Natasha de la Grense summed it up well this morning: "Money was waiting on the sidelines to buy luxury for a de-escalation play – that feels premature with three misses in three days."
Disappointments from Kering and Hermès, both of which fell short of analyst estimates, reinforced the view that the industry of fine wine, overpriced shirts, shoes, belts, and designer bags, is not yet out of the woods and sent the Goldman Sachs EU Luxury Goods Index (GSXELUXG) down more than 4%.
Gucci's turnaround appears to be faltering, with first-quarter revenue plunging 8% - nearly double the expected decline as the US-Iran conflict hit Middle East demand and tourism.
The conflict started late in the first quarter, resulting in an 11% sales drop in the Middle East (about 5% of revenue) and shaving roughly 1 percentage point off Kering's overall sales.
Shares of Kering in Paris trade down as much as 10%, leaving them down about 16.5% on the year.
Also in the luxury space, Hermès missed expectations in the first quarter, with sales up 5.6% at constant exchange rates versus the Bloomberg Consensus estimates of 7.44%. This miss sent shares in Paris spiraling down by 10%, leaving them down 23% on the year.
Hermès' weakness was similar to Kering's, largely due to the Middle East Conflict. Sales in the region fell 5.9%, while France declined 2.8%, as lower tourism spending weighed on results, particularly due to fewer Middle Eastern shoppers visiting stores across France, Switzerland, and the UK. Italy was also affected, but not as much.
Both earnings results add to mounting evidence that the war is hitting luxury demand more broadly.
Natasha at Goldman outlined six points of what her team learned today about luxury stock earnings:
Taking a step back from this morning's large share price moves in Luxury, what have we actually learnt from Q1 prints? Most companies are talking to a -100-150bps headwind in the quarter from events in the Middle East which is not too surprising but implies that underlying growth is still unexciting, particularly when you consider easier comps vs Q4. Areas of prior strength are still very solid (US, jewellery) and, on the positive side, the consumer is responding to leather newness in certain pockets. However, there is no real step change in the overall demand backdrop (aspirational remains weak) and so no reason to own this sector at large. Money was waiting on the sidelines to buy luxury for a de-escalation play – that feels premature with three misses in three days.
Hermes was the biggest surprise for me today. It seems this group's exposure to tourism is higher than many of us had realised (>50% of sales in France), while wholesale was impacted by not just Travel Retail but also lower deliveries to concessions in the Middle East. On the positive side, space contribution will pick up through the year - Hermes didn't say inventory had been held back ahead of store openings but did remind us Leather production can be lumpy, guiding for improved performance sequentially and reiterating FY guidance.
I still think the structural bear case on Hermes is overstated while waiting lists still exist and second hand bags are priced at a premium. And, with no change to outlook, consensus likely stays at 9% for FY26 - bang in line with the pre-covid average meaning this company is still "doing what it says on the tin". That said, I appreciate there was nothing in the print to disprove the bears today. China is where we have heard most concern on the brand – largely due to second hand market headwinds (where there is more authentication, high supply and price premia have come down). To be fair, Hermes' slight growth in China isn't bad vs peers (Kering cluster down mid-teens, LVMH cluster flat) particularly considering the tougher comp. Bears also point to the non-Leather slowdown today as a sign of softer global brand momo – again this is hard to disprove, although they did flag on the call that RTW and shoes are quite geared to ME and tourism.
Meanwhile, I am less surprised by the move at Kering today. Unlike at Hermes, positioning was not short, and arguably the print raises more questions on FY delivery. Speaking with investors this morning, the main questions being raised are: 1) is the US improvement really a sign that the Gucci turnaround is working, or simply a function of macro (local wealth effects). Kering said that all brands improved in the US, with strength driven by higher end cohorts rather than this being broad based. In addition Gucci brand was down double digits in all other regions, suggesting global brand momo is still poor; 2) is FY26 guidance of top line growth across all brands achievable considering Gucci retail -9% in Q1, current trading for the group flat (consensus Q2 group +2%), ongoing conflict in the Middle East and a large store closure program; 3) was there a soft warning on margins in here? On the call, the CFO reiterated an "ambition" to grow margins but introduced the idea of stable margins even without growth.
Previously, investors told us they didn't want to be short Kering ahead of the CMD but there is a growing view today that management will have to concede the top line recovery will be back-end loaded and, without top line, any margin story is hard to back. I'd still prefer to wait post CMD before putting on the short as I expect Mr de Meo will come across well once again and the headline on MT margins could sound good. Middle East would have been a credible reason to step away from top line guidance last night – the fact they didn't arguably speaks to confidence in brand strategy presentations to come.
Bottom line: More earnings cuts for Luxury. It is still too early to go back to this sector with both limited visibility on how long conflict lasts and also likely knock-on impacts even after a ceasefire (rising inflation impacting aspirational demand recovery). Our flow has been better to sell in Luxury all year, driven by LOs. We think that investor base needs line of sight on a return to mid-single-digit growth before considering stepping back into this space.
GSXELUXG is down 4% this morning on dismal earnings from Kering and Hermès, and the index has been in an overall bear market since its 2025 peak. The index has traded sideways over the last five years.
Luxury was already under pressure before the conflict because of a tough economic backdrop, but the conflict in the Middle East made things a whole lot worse. The good news is that the US and Iran are agreeing to extend a truce, according to AP News, as talks of a peace deal appear promising.
Tyler Durden Wed, 04/15/2026 - 07:45March saw the submission of multiple construction permits for new reactors, while new designs like India's thorium reactor, obtained their first criticality. Microreactors in the US also progressed through DOE regulatory pathways as they approach a criticality deadline in July.
Last month also saw multiple headlines in the US across the nuclear fuel chain. Uranium pricing in the spot market was relatively flat after the significant pullback in February. GS updated their uranium supply demand model to account for some of the latest updates resulting in a continued gross mismatch over the next couple decades.
These nuclear industry updates come in a time of great power competition in the form of an AI race between China and the US. Constellation Energy's CEO Joseph Dominguez recently stated the US is "very behind" China in the race to build up energy to feed AI data centers.
Taking into account the fact that China has built the entirety of the US electric system since just 2010, Dominguez said "we're in some trouble" if building as fast as China is what it takes to win. He additionally argues a restructuring of national grid operations to better manage peak energy demands could more appropriately balance use of the grid and potentially lead to lower energy prices.
Goldman Sachs analyst Brian Lee reviews headlines across the nuclear industry for March.
New reactor progress and announcementsNorth America
3/16/26 - Canada - Darlington Unit 4 has returned to service at 100% power, completing Ontario Power Generation’s four‑unit Darlington Refurbishment Project, which extends the plant’s operating life by around 30 years; the CAD 12.8 billion programme was finished four months ahead of schedule and CAD 150 million under budget, marking the full return of all four Candu units to operation.
3/26/2026 - United States - NASA plans to launch Space Reactor‑1 Freedom, the first nuclear‑powered interplanetary spacecraft, to Mars before the end of 2028, using nuclear electric propulsion to enable efficient deep‑space travel; the mission is intended to demonstrate flight‑ready nuclear technology and deploy Ingenuity‑class helicopters at Mars while establishing a foundation for future nuclear‑powered exploration beyond the Moon.
3/27/2026 - United States - Microsoft and Nvidia have announced an “AI for nuclear” collaboration to deploy AI‑driven tools that streamline permitting, accelerate plant design, and optimise construction and operations across the nuclear lifecycle, aiming to reduce regulatory bottlenecks and development timelines without compromising safety; the partnership brings Nvidia‑backed nuclear AI capabilities, including digital twins and simulation, onto Microsoft’s Azure platform, with Everstar contributing domain‑specific nuclear AI.
4/1/2026 - United States - Constellation Energy says it still expects to restart the Crane Clean Energy Center (formerly Three Mile Island Unit 1) in 2027, and plans to seek FERC approval to transfer grid‑capacity rights from its Eddystone plant to overcome potential PJM interconnection delays that could otherwise push grid upgrades into the 2030s.
4/1/2026 - United States - Holtec International has completed passivation of the Palisades plant’s primary system, bringing it to operating temperature and pressure for the first time since the reactor shut down in 2022; the system will now be cooled for further testing, equipment upgrades, and preparations for fuel loading.
Europe
3/31/26 - Poland - Polskie Elektrownie Jądrowe has submitted a construction‑permit application to Poland’s National Atomic Energy Agency for the country’s first nuclear power plant, including a comprehensive Preliminary Safety Analysis Report, marking a major regulatory milestone as Poland advances its nuclear build programme.
4/2/2026 - UK - The Hunterston B nuclear power station in Scotland has transferred from EDF Energy to UK government ownership, with responsibility moving to the Nuclear Decommissioning Authority and its subsidiary Nuclear Restoration Services, marking the first Advanced Gas‑Cooled Reactor plant to enter government ownership as it begins decommissioning.
Asia and other
3/13/2026 - China - Unit 1 of the San’ao nuclear power plant in Zhejiang, China, successfully connected to the grid on March 12, 2026. This HPR1000 reactor is the first of six planned for the site and is expected to enter full commercial operation in the first half of 2026.
3/16/2026 - Russia - The first VVER-TOI unit at Russia’s Kursk II plant has reached 100% power during commissioning. The 1,250 MWe reactor is undergoing final safety tests and is expected to enter commercial operation later in 2026. This new fleet will replace the site’s aging RBMK reactors, with all four units planned to be operational by 2034.
3/23/2026 - Vietnam - Vietnam and Russia have signed an intergovernmental agreement to build the Ninh Thuan 1 nuclear power plant, planned to use two VVER‑1200 reactors based on the Leningrad NPP‑2 design; the deal establishes the legal framework for the project and marks Vietnam’s restart of its nuclear programme following government approval in 2024.
3/27/2026 - Taiwan - Taipower has applied to Taiwan’s Nuclear Safety Council to restart the two‑unit Maanshan nuclear power plant after their 40‑year operating licenses expired, following a legal change allowing 20‑year license extensions; the submission initiates a procedural and technical review process, with additional safety inspections expected to take roughly 18–24 months before any potential return to service.
3/31/2026 - Bangladesh - Rooppur Unit 1 has successfully completed boron flushing of its primary circuit systems, a key pre‑commissioning milestone ahead of first criticality, clearing the way for nuclear fuel loading, which is scheduled to take place in April as Bangladesh’s first nuclear power reactor moves toward initial start‑up.
3/31/2026 - South Korea - South Korea’s Nuclear Safety and Security Commission has approved the restart of Kori Unit 2, allowing the 685 MWe PWR—offline since April 2023 after its original 40‑year license expired—to resume operations following completion of inspections and safety upgrades under its extended operating permit through 2033.
4/7/2026 - India - India’s 500 MWe PFBR at Kalpakkam reached first criticality on 6 April, marking a key milestone in the country’s second stage of its three‑stage nuclear programme and advancing plans for a closed fuel cycle centred on thorium.
SMR announcement tracker
3/5/2026 - United States - The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission has issued a construction permit for TerraPower’s first Natrium plant in Kemmerer, Wyoming. Per the NRC, this is the first approval in more than 40 years for a commercial non‑light‑water reactor; the 345 MWe sodium‑cooled fast reactor, which includes molten‑salt energy storage, can now begin nuclear construction, with a separate operating license still required before generation.
3/18/2026 - United States - Oklo has received US Department of Energy approval for Nuclear Safety Design Agreements covering both its Aurora powerhouse pilot reactor at Idaho National Laboratory and Atomic Alchemy’s Groves Isotopes Test Reactor in Texas, allowing both projects to move into the next phase of licensing under the DOE’s Reactor Pilot Program, with NRC licensing to follow for commercial operations.
3/19/2026 - Sweden - Blykalla is advancing plans for a lead‑cooled SMR plant in Norrsundet, Sweden, after studies confirmed the site’s suitability; the project would deploy six SEALER reactors totaling about 300 MW to supply fossil‑free power, with permitting expected to start later this year and potential operation in the early 2030s, subject to approvals.
3/20/2026 - United States - Aalo Atomics has completed assembly of its Critical Test Reactor at the Idaho National Laboratory, unveiling the experimental Aalo‑X reactor and targeting criticality well before the 4 July deadline under the US DOE’s Nuclear Reactor Pilot Program; the reactor serves as a precursor to Aalo’s planned 50 MWe extra‑modular reactors for data centres, with final startup pending fuel delivery and DOE approval.
3/20/2026 - United States - X‑energy has signed a letter of intent with Talen Energy to assess deploying multiple XE‑100 SMR plants in Pennsylvania and across the PJM market, potentially developing three or more four‑unit plants to add clean baseload capacity; the companies will carry out early‑stage feasibility studies and site evaluations, including opportunities to repower existing fossil‑fuel sites using established infrastructure, transmission, and workforce resources.
3/23/2026 - Sweden - Kärnfull Next has submitted Sweden’s first application under the new Act on Government Approval of Nuclear Facilities to build an SMR campus in Valdemarsvik, southeastern Sweden, covering a planned four‑to‑six‑unit light‑water reactor site; the project is part of its ReFirm South programme and represents a step from concept to formal permitting aimed at delivering new dispatchable, fossil‑free power, with additional SMR applications expected later this year.
3/24/2026 - Uzbekistan - Uzbekistan and Russia have marked progress on the country’s first SMR project by signing a nuclear cooperation roadmap and beginning initial concrete works for a RITM‑200N reactor at the Jizzakh site; the project now combines two large VVER‑1000 units with two 55 MWe SMRs, establishing the framework for construction, training, and long‑term nuclear development.
3/30/2026 - United States - New Hampshire has launched a formal review of advanced nuclear reactor deployment after Governor Kelly Ayotte issued an executive order directing the state’s Department of Energy to assess regulatory, financial, and market conditions and develop a statewide nuclear energy roadmap to guide potential next‑generation nuclear development.
3/31/2026 - South Africa - South Africa’s Nuclear Energy Corporation (Necsa) has launched an Expression of Interest to identify technology partners for the development and demonstration of a small modular reactor, aiming to assess mature SMR designs and financing models as part of its strategy to position the country in the global SMR supply chain and support future deployment.
3/31/2026 - UK - Holtec International’s SMR‑300 small modular reactor design has completed Step 2 of the UK Generic Design Assessment, with regulators concluding there are no fundamental safety, security, safeguards, or environmental protection issues that would prevent its deployment in Great Britain.
4/2/2026 - Canada - OPG has applied to the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission for a 20‑year operating license for the first BWRX‑300 SMR at the Darlington New Nuclear Project, a step required to complete commissioning and begin operation once construction is finished; the application will be decided following a public hearing.
Global reactor critical updates
In the month of March, there have been few changes to new reactor construction starts, grid connections, shutdowns, or restarts.
Global reactor construction tracker
Global reactors under construction
China only
Fuel announcements
3/9/2026 - United States - Oklo and Centrus Energy are exploring a joint venture focused on HALEU deconversion services and advanced nuclear fuel‑cycle technologies, with proposed activities co‑located at Centrus’s Piketon, Ohio site to integrate enrichment and deconversion, improve efficiency, and expand domestic advanced nuclear fuel capacity to support Oklo’s reactors and broader US deployment.
3/11/2026 - United States - Framatome and NuScale Power have expanded their long‑standing fuel partnership to include Framatome’s European fabrication facilities, establishing a global supply chain to support NuScale’s SMR deployments in both the US and Europe; the agreement also advances qualification of Framatome’s Richland, Washington plant to produce NuScale’s NuFUEL‑HTP2 fuel, with deliveries for the first US customer targeted from around 2030.
3/12/2026 - UK - Urenco reported its order book has reached a record €21.3 billion, up about 14% year‑on‑year, with enrichment contracts now extending into the 2040s, reflecting strong demand for nuclear fuel services amid rising political and utility support for nuclear power in Europe and North America.
3/20/2026 - Belgium - Framatome has signed a contract with Belgium’s SCK CEN to supply high‑density silicide low‑enriched uranium fuel for the BR2 research reactor as it transitions away from high‑enriched uranium, following successful irradiation of lead test assemblies delivered in 2025.
3/23/2026 - United States - Uranium Energy Corp has expanded uranium production at its Christensen Ranch ISR mine in Wyoming by bringing new header houses into operation, while its subsidiary United States Uranium Refining & Conversion Corp has passed the first licensing milestone for a planned US uranium conversion facility; the developments support higher domestic uranium output and advance UEC’s strategy to rebuild a vertically integrated US nuclear fuel supply chain.
3/30/2026 - United States - FluxPoint Energy, plans to develop what it expects will be the first new uranium conversion facility in the US in about 70 years, aiming to convert uranium oxide U3O8 into UF6 to strengthen domestic nuclear fuel supply security, with first production targeted for 2030–2031.
4/1/2026 - Ukraine - Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers has approved a plan to build a domestic nuclear fuel assembly production facility, giving Energoatom the go‑ahead to design and construct a plant using Westinghouse technology in the Mykolaiv region, a move aimed at strengthening fuel security and advancing Ukraine toward a self‑sufficient nuclear fuel cycle.
Uranium pricing and volume trackers
Spot pricing starting to stabilize. Spot pricing continued its downward trend through much of March following February’s pullback, easing from the high‑$86/lb level at the start of the month to the low‑to‑mid $80s by the second half. Prices declined steadily through mid‑ and late‑March, briefly dipping below ~$84/lb, before stabilizing toward month‑end around ~$84/lb. Spot market activity picked up modestly relative to February but remained well below January levels, with flows largely driven by traders rather than utilities. Financial participation remained intermittent, with SPUT activity episodic rather than sustained. Despite softer pricing through March, year‑to‑date spot volumes in 2026 remain meaningfully ahead of last year, reflecting a stronger start to the year overall.
Term pricing holds strong. Term uranium pricing remained firm through March, holding at ~$90/lb following February’s step‑up, reinforcing the view that pricing has reset to a higher plateau. While reported term contracting activity was limited during the month, engagement remained active, with utilities continuing to evaluate both mid‑ and long‑term offers across uranium (U₃O₈), conversion, and EUP. Market color pointed to continued upward pressure on offer structures, with floor prices largely holding in the mid‑$70s and ceiling prices stretching into the low‑$130s and beyond for longer‑dated deliveries. Overall, March was characterized by constructive sentiment in term markets but limited execution, as buyers remained selective amid elevated price levels.
KAP earnings update. On 3/20/26, KAP held its 4Q25 earnings call where management reiterated its production guidance of 27,500-29,000 tU (71.5-75.4mn lbs), with the midpoint ~5% below its subsoil use contract annual production of 29,697 tU.
Tyler Durden Wed, 04/15/2026 - 06:55