With expectations of a 4%-plus print, all eyes are on this morning's CPI report as we move past April's shutdown-related distortions.
Headline CPI rose 0.5% MoM (as expected) in May, lifting prices 4.2% YoY (also as expected). The first 4%-plus print since April 2023...
Core Goods prices deflated in May while Energy remains a notable contributor...
CPI details:
Headline: The all items index rose 4.2 percent for the 12 months ending May, after rising 3.8 percent for the 12 months ending April. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.9 percent over the year, following a 2.8-percent increase over the 12 months ending April. The energy index increased 23.5 percent for the 12 months ending May. The food index increased 3.1 percent over the last year
This is the first deflationary print for goods prices in a year...
Household furnishings and Supplies -0.042%
Transportation Commodities less motor oil: -0.49%
Medical Care Commodities -0.54%
Drug prices are down for the fifth month in a row...
Core CPI rose less than expected (+0.2% MoM vs +0.3% MoM exp), lifting prices by 2.9% YoY (as expected), up from April's 2.8% YoY and the highest since Sept 2025...
Core Services costs are accelerating...
Core: The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2% in May.
Indexes that increased over the month include communication, airline fares, medical care, personal care, and recreation.
On the other hand, the indexes for motor vehicle insurance, household furnishings and operations, and new vehicles were among the major indexes that decreased in May.
Transportation Services deflated MoM...
...led by the unexpected drop in Insurance costs...
That is the biggest drop in vehicle insurance costs since COVID...
Goods inflation overall is trending lower while Services costs are accelerating...
The much-watched SuperCore CPI (Core Services Ex-Shelter) saw prices rise 0.26% MoM and 3.49% YoY (highest sine Aug 2025)..
On a shorter-term basis, its all about energy...
But, is this the peak of Energy-cost-driven inflation?
This leaves headline consumer prices up 5.16% since President Trump came to office...
And perhaps most notably, Americans' real wages are shrinking on a YoY basis (for the first time since April 2023)...
Let's just hope this analog fails here...
BofA's Michael Hartnett previously warned that a May print above 0.4% (estimates currently have it a 0.6%) means US CPI >4% YoY and on course for 5% by US midterms, and risk assets get twitchy: in the past 100 years once CPI crosses 4% on average, the S&P is down 4% in the next 3 months, and down 7% next 6 month...
Finally, while nattering nabobs of mainstream media will be decrying Trump's terrible record on prices, Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid notes that when looked at over the full century, inflation above 4% is not especially rare: over a quarter of monthly observations have exceeded this level.
However, these episodes have tended to arrive in distinct waves - most notably around WWII, during the 1970s, and more briefly in the post-Covid period.
Smaller but still meaningful pockets also appeared during the late-1980s boom and ahead of the GFC.
The more recent experience looks very different.
Since 1992, 83% of observations have sat comfortably in the 1–4% range, with just 10% printing above 4%. For most market participants, then, inflation above 4% has been an exception rather than the rule.
The key question is whether the future looks more like the last 35 years or the full 105-year monthly history.
While there are no immediate signs of inflation running away, the disinflationary environment of the past few decades benefited from a set of unusually supportive, and largely non-repeatable, global forces.
So going forward the template from the last century rather than the last few decades will probably be the better guide.
Tyler Durden Wed, 06/10/2026 - 09:44Less-than-truckload freight stocks fell in premarket trading in New York after Amazon roiled the industry yet again - this time by announcing expanded LTL services to cover all U.S. destinations, including third-party warehouses, distribution centers, and retail partners.
"Businesses now have the flexibility to ship by pallet, choosing LTL to share trailer space for partial loads instead of reserving and paying for a full truckload," Amazon wrote in a press release, adding, "Since 2019, Amazon LTL has served tens of thousands of Amazon selling partners and vendors, moving millions of pallets across its U.S. network last year. The company is now expanding the service based on strong positive feedback and growing customer demand."
Among the movers in premarket trading, FedEx Freight fell 2%, Old Dominion declined 6%, Saia sank 7%, and ArcBest dropped nearly 8%.
LTL services are part of Amazon Supply Chain Services, whose launch last month roiled trucking stocks at the time.
Amazon noted, "Businesses of all sizes can now use LTL to move freight, typically ranging from one to six pallets, or between 150 and 15,000 pounds."
UBS senior analyst Tom Wadewitz, who covers freight transportation, told clients last month that the selloff in transport names, including UPS, FedEx, and C.H. Robinson, sparked by Amazon’s push into the supply chain network, was "overdone."
Tyler Durden Wed, 06/10/2026 - 09:40Ukraine has hit Russia in another sweeping wave of overnight aerial attacks, especially targeting industrial facilities and energy infrastructure across multiple regions, and the extent of damage is yet to be disclosed.
One of the key targets was reportedly the VNIIR-Progress plant, located in the republic of Chuvashia, which is alleged by Ukraine and the West to manufactures components for Russian drones and bombs. Other nearby infrastructure was also attacked.
via TelegramUkraine has for months been making clear that it is going gloves off when it comes to attacking Russia's energy and military sites, as well as dual use military-industrial factories. Ukraine used its domestic-made Flamingo cruise missile:
Ukrainian forces have carried out a missile attack deep inside Russia, hitting a major military plant overnight, President Volodymyr Zelensky has said.
He said FP-5 Flamingo cruise missiles struck the drone and missile plant in the city of Cheboksary, in the Chuvash Republic, more than 900km (560 miles) from the front line. Local officials say said three people were injured in a missile attack on the city.
Ukraine also said it had hit the Moscow-occupied port of Mariupol on the Sea of Azov, a Russian oil refinery in Samara and a "shadow fleet" oil tanker in the Black Sea.
According to a review of sensitive sites struck in the fresh overnight attack wave:
Chuvashia regional governor Oleg Nikolayev blasted the strike on the aforementioned manufacturing plant as indicative of the "impotent rage of terrorists who, having no success at the front line, try to intimidate peaceful people in the rear."
All of these strike waves in disparate places is likely invite even greater airstrikes on Kiev, after the capital has already been hit hard over the past several weeks.
Big night for Ukraine’s long-range strikes.
Kuibyshev Refinery in Samara is reportedly burning in multiple locations and may face lengthy repairs.
VNIIR Progress in Cheboksary — a key producer of Kometa navigation systems used in Shahed drones, Iskander and Kalibr missiles —… pic.twitter.com/PGpEgnaOul
President Putin and top military brass had last month said strikes would be initiated against "decision-making centers" in response to the dorm attack in the Russia’s Lugansk People’s Republic on May 22, which killed 21 people - mostly teenage girls - and injured 70 others.
Kremlin officials now say that Russian forces have "a right to dismantle any infrastructure that supports terrorism."
But it's also these constant attacks on oil and industrial sites that little by little will put immense strain on Russia's economy and the populace. The salvos out of Ukraine will keep coming, especially as Moscow continues to maintain the 'special military operation' at a slow, grinding pace.
Tyler Durden Wed, 06/10/2026 - 09:05