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Goldman Hikes Obesity Drug Market Forecast As Oral GLP-1s Go Mass Market

The global weight-loss drug market is now expected to reach $114 billion by 2030, up from Goldman's prior $101 billion forecast, as analysts cite faster adoption of oral obesity pills, stronger demand outside the U.S., and improved affordability that is expanding the patient pool.

Goldman analysts led by Asad Haider and James Quigley laid out four main drivers behind the upgraded 2030 anti-obesity drug TAM forecast (previous forecast made in Dec. 2025):

1. Higher oral vs. injectable share and a higher oral TAM. With oral NBRx (new-to-brand) prescriptions (a leading indicator) now 40-50% following the strong launch of Novo's Wegovy pill, we now expect orals to represent 40% ($46bn) of the 2030 global revenue TAM (vs. 35%/$35bn prior).

2. Shifting sales mix within orals. We balance our share splits with Novo's Wegovy pill now 38% (vs. 16% prior), LLY's Foundayo now 48% (54% prior) and "other" now 14% (vs. 30% prior). We now forecast Wegovy peak global sales of $17.4bn (vs. prior $8bn) and Foundayo 2030 sales of $22bn (vs. prior $19bn).

3. Increased OUS penetration and a higher OUS TAM. Per stronger-than-expected OUS ramp for LLY's Mounjaro, we now forecast 2030 total OUS obesity sales of $48bn vs. $39bn prior, driving most of the higher 2030 Global TAM from $101bn to $114bn.

4. Updated pricing assumptions across channels. We lower pricing assumptions in the US DTC channel by 20% (to now $287 vs. prior $355) driven by lower prices across the board and higher oral mix shift.

Haider expects Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to control 82% of the global GLP-1 market share by the end of the decade.

The forecast assumes a larger shift towards oral obesity drugs.

Oral obesity drugs are expanding market share.

The oral Wegovy pill has had greater momentum since launch compared to Lilly's Foundayo.

Wegovy and Foundayo to dominate oral obesity drugs in the new forecast.

Medicare is expanding the patient pool. Goldman expects obesity coverage expansion to begin on July 1, through the GLP-1 MFN deal, modeling a potential 17 million-patient opportunity over time and $2.6 billion in Medicare-channel obesity sales in 2026, mostly skewed toward injectables.

The GLP-1 market outside the US is also set to become a major factor.

Rise of GLP-1s in China.

Goldman's revised GLP-1 TAM model for 2030 suggests obesity drugs are evolving from high-priced injectables into mass-market oral pills, broader international adoption, Medicare access, and lower consumer prices.

GLP-1 weight-loss drug headlines dominated the news cycle since 2021, with the initial hype cycle propelling Novo Nordisk shares in Copenhagen to record highs. That momentum has since sharply reversed as competitors and copycat drugs begin reshaping the market.

The question now, and certaintly analyst Quigley, is simple:

When does Novo finally bottom?

Professional subscribers can read the full GLP-1 TAM note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 06:55

In May, Anna Wintour’s daughter attended the Met Gala — the biggest night in the fashion calendar — with her husband of eight years, photographer Francesco Carrozzini.

In May, Anna Wintour’s daughter attended the Met Gala — the biggest night in the fashion calendar — with her husband of eight years, photographer Francesco Carrozzini.

Since Lockdowns, A 12% GDP Loss; Half Of US Dollar Purchasing Power Stolen

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Brownstone Institute,

Many of us have had the intuition that the economic damage from 2020 – including industrial stoppages, monetary printing, supply-chain disruptions, extended school closures, and general population demoralization – was in fact far greater than official statistics indicate. 

What follows will shore up this intuition, using new techniques and numbers from an innovative project called RealityIndex.co. 

It’s true that official data is bad enough, showing a 26% loss in purchasing power, slow growth in output, and only marginal improvements in real income. The labor participation rate and worker/population ratio never fully recovered and continue to fall.

Output has been lackluster. It’s supposedly running 2.3% which is about half the postwar norm for US economic performance. It feels like a general downshift. Official data shows a brief recession in 2020 followed by gradual economic recovery overall. 

But is this even true? In 2024, Brownstone Institute commissioned a study (by E.J. Antoni and Peter St. Onge) that concluded that we have never really entered recovery after 2022. We’ve been in a technical recession since that time. They got this with some limited adjustments of price data bumped up against output data. That study was met with brutal attacks, with every critic falling back on official data and doubting the supposed extremism of the conclusion. 

That’s where matters have stood even as reports pour in concerning broken labor markets, no raises for 1 in 4 professional-class workers, and sketchy Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data that seems barely above zero thanks mainly to medical-sector subsidies, government spending, and social services. Then there are the learning losses showing dramatic declines in test scores among affected students. 

We are left with real questions. How can consumer sentiment be at historic lows given that the overall data seems to raise no loud alarms?

In the meantime, Artificial Intelligence has come along to make these complicated calculations possible, ones that seek to discern and delineate the huge gaps between official data and reality. The goal is to come up with real data concerning real prices, sans the many different methods that the Department of Labor uses to adjust price changes. 

For example, housing prices are not measured directly but rather converted to owners’ equivalent rent (OER). Medical service prices are adjusted for consumption, not premiums or final bills. When consumers substitute one good for another, that is also factored in. When the quality of a good or service improves, the statisticians apply what they called hedonic adjustments, which are invariably designed to minimize price increases and never run the other direction. 

Where does this leave those of us who are looking for a plain index of prices? A veil has been put over that basic question and answer, such that we don’t know for sure. This matters tremendously for issues like raises, examining cost of living increases, taxes, and pension payments. Everything is adjusted for inflation to convert it to real valuations but if we don’t have a clear number, what are we to do?

This is why we should be thrilled about a new study/service called the Reality Index. You are free to browse the site yourself and examine every aspect of the method. Essentially, the site owner, an independent intellectual in Madrid, Tom Elliott, has deployed tools of AI to wholly reconstruct price indices in a way that is consistent with actual prices. His results are absolutely eye-popping. I’ve examined the method here in detail and found no fault. 

The Wall Street Journal has also taken notice. This is good news and raises the possibility that we can finally get to the truth. 

The core of the problem is a constantly changing methodology in official data. The formula was changed eight times over 35 years. All the changes seem technical and vaguely justifiable, once explained. Adding them all up, you get wild distortions in the data that the index is supposed to reveal. All these changes came home to roost in the great inflation of 2021-2024, which might be entering a second wave right now. 

In 1983, owners’ equivalent rent replaced basic housing prices. The new formula was based on an estimate of what homeowners would have to pay to rent their own homes. But in real life, people pay mortgages, property taxes, and home prices. When home prices and mortgage rates rise faster than rents, the new formula understates the housing inflation real households face. 

In 1996, the Boskin Commission announced that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was overstated because people substitute higher-priced goods for lower-priced goods which are too slow in being calculated. The agency made the correction to eliminate the bias in the fixed basket of goods. The problem is that every single adjustment ended up forcing the reported rate to be less than a plain addition of the same goods over time. 

In 1998, there was a new fashion for hedonic adjustments. This stemmed from an observation that quality is always improving, especially in digital goods and computer functioning. The idea is that you might be paying the same or even more but you are getting more bang for your buck with quality shifts. You guessed it: hedonic adjustments drew the inflation rate lower. Notably, hedonic adjustments never run the other way, raising prices when quality decreases. 

In 1999, a geometric mean formula replaced arithmetic mean for most CPI components. This was intended to capture substitution effects. This was the change that ended up disguising the increase in medical service costs. By looking at consumed services rather than actual prices, the inflation rate in this sector ended up burying inflationary trends. This highly technical adjustment completely ignored all the ways in which substitution is a behavioral adaptation to inflation, not a reduction in the inflation experienced. 

In 2002, we got a continuation of this same method with new “chained CPI” which changes the basket weighting based on new purchasing patterns. Sure, if people buy less beef and more chicken, the household will experience inflation in a different way. But this ignores the manner in which the substitutions themselves are a response to higher prices. In 2017, the new calculation was applied to taxes causing people to pay more than they otherwise would have under the old method. 

In 2018, the hedonic adjustment strategy was expanded to a huge new range of products including smartphones, residential telephone services, internet services, and cable and satellite television. In 2020, at the same time the composition of M1 was changed and not retrospectively applied such that the data is essentially useless. Following money supply data became more difficult. Then in 2024, the Bureau of Labor Statistics stopped looking at the actual cost of medical services and started only looking at claims, completing the consumption-only bias against actual posted prices. In 2025, a month went by with no data collection at all. 

So what happens when we strip all this away and examine actual prices as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, without all the many adjustments? We find that a basket of goods and services that cost $100 in 1980 costs $515 per the Reality Index in 2025. The official CPI reports only $391. 

That means that real prices have run 32% higher over 45 years than the government reports. Over a 55-year window, the Reality Index ran 54.4% faster than CPI. 

To put it another way, consider the loss of purchasing power since 1980. According to the CPI, the loss has been to make $1 in 1980 worth only 26 cents. According to the Reality Index, the loss is greater: $1 in 1980 is now worth only 19 cents. By any standard, that is a shocking devaluation. All of this became much worse starting with lockdowns. 

There is much more work to do with this method. The charts could be interactive. They can also be set for real-time updates. They will be if Elliott continues to develop this. He should. There might even be commercial value in this. 

Think about the implications. Isolating from the beginning of the Covid period to the present, Elliott’s data estimates as much as a 40% loss in purchasing power over six years. Or perhaps closer to 50%. Here is a zoom in of the above chart covering 2019 to the present.

This seems correct to me. Government data, meanwhile, logs only a 26% loss. That’s a massive gap between the official data and what prices actually reveal. With an AI re-rendering that tracks purchasing power – the flipside of the increase of prices – we get numbers closer to 50%. That means that Covid cut the value of the dollar in terms of goods and services to half its former value.

I asked AI to map this out in terms of year-over-year changes in prices. CPI shows a peak in 2022 followed by a decline in the rate of increase. Reality Index shows that the devaluation actually intensified and never fell below 6%. This explains so much about consumer sentiment and political shifts. People feel it even if official data never revealed it. This kind of chart forces a rethinking of the history of the last six years.

There are still larger implications. We measure national output with the Gross Domestic Product, a national income statistic used since the 1930s. For output data, it would make no sense to report it in nominal terms without factoring in inflation. As a result, the GDP is usually reported in real terms, with an inflation adjustment that is continually compounded on an annual basis. 

Elliott’s own data – which is shocking enough – did not go into the implications for GDP. But I was able to use a simple AI tool to make those adjustments, adding the corrected price index as the deflator metric. 

The result is rather astounding. The recession of 2020 never really ended in a sustained way. Charted by hard numbers and then by percent change, you gain a very different picture of present levels of output. It causes one to completely rethink the last six years. 

The official definition of recession is two quarters of declining real GDP. In revised data, we’ve had consistently negative GDP in all but three quarters since summer of 2022. In those three quarters, output barely rose above zero. Mostly real GDP has been falling, a recession without end. 

Overall, Grok AI estimates a loss of 5-12% of GDP from 2019 to present using Reality Index numbers. Sorry but read that again. Instead of any recovery, we’ve seen as much as double-digit declines in GDP overall since 2020. This is the cumulative loss spread out over six years. 

That’s roughly half of the losses of the full period of the Great Depression, which was more catastrophic than people know. Most research from the 1930s, for example by George Selgin, shows that this was not a normal business cycle but a structural hit tracing to the very coercive measures designed to fix the problem. Price controls and market disruptions made a bad situation far worse. This is precisely the sort of hit that should worry us the most. 

The lockdowns were a similar situation: a massive exogenous shock to commerce, accompanied by a huge devaluation of the currency. It amounted to a gigantic transfer of wealth to elites, the largest in history, followed by a destruction of wealth of the middle and lower classes. 

At least during the Great Depression, people knew it was happening. It was officially documented. Our times are different. We have heard nothing for six years except happy talk about economic recovery. Based on real data, the opposite has happened, most tracing to the disastrous lockdowns of 2020. 

The beauty of this data is that it is subject to replication. Anyone can look at the methodology and disagree. Be my guest. From what I can see, the actual picture is far closer to the reality that most people are experiencing. 

In other words, that only one in four workers has had a nominal raise in five years barely scratches the surface. The reality could be that we’ve lost as much as 12% of national output since the lockdown era, along with a halving of the currency value. It’s somehow worse that we are only now able to document this. 

Also, I would like to see his methods applied to my own concern over effective household income per hour of work. We keep hearing that household income is rising in real terms without considering that it generally takes two incomes to provide what one once did. It won’t do to pretend that two incomes in a single household is double the income when one person has been drafted into the workforce to sustain living standards. 

Adding that consideration in here, and the dramatic change in household remuneration between 1950 and 1990, would be very revealing. After all, only 1 in 5 households (with children under 18) had two income streams in 1950 where it is 3 in 5 today. That is effectively a diminution of wages per household hour and not an increase in income. Add that consideration and you would generate a chart of declining living standards in the decades before lockdowns delivered the final coup de grâce. 

And that is where we are today. Households are scrambling to keep the bills paid while juggling children and domestic life while running from job to job to keep the flow going as best they can. Meanwhile, they money they earn has less buying power than ever. It’s no wonder consumer sentiment is rock bottom. 

It is long past time for this technical work to be done. What Tom Elliott has provided is what index numbers should provide: clean and stable comparisons of the same or similar products over time, no adjustments, refinements, and manipulations. Run those numbers against conventional output numbers and you produce a very different picture of economic performance since 2020. 

We’ve lived so long with distorted statistics. It fascinates me that the person who finally did it is an independent data expert in Spain rather than an employed academic in the US. That itself is revealing.

The big picture is that the lockdowns, not only nationally but globally, were far more catastrophic for us economically than has been generally admitted or recognized. It is not unusual in the history of economics for the really bad news to emerge years and even decades after an exogenous shock such as war. 

We would rather not wait that long. The crisis is too real and the public knows, even if the official data does not admit the truth. 

Lockdowns were a kind of war on the population. The economic carnage might have sliced off half of the purchasing power of the dollar and cut output by as much as 12% over six years (in real terms, leaving aside missed counterfactual growth on the previous trajectory), even as labor participation never recovered and continues to fall. 

Did Covid kick off a kind of permanent recession? How many decades must pass before we admit what happened? More precisely, how much longer will it take before the public mind recognizes what they did to us? 

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 06:30

The Rent Guidelines Board must take a clear-eyed look at its own research and data — and reject City Hall’s politics.

Bayville village in Nassau County couldn’t find a single person interested in the top job out of about 7,000 residents until a few weeks ago.

Patients who have dropped the pounds are now longing to plump up their sagging lobes.

The Rangers’ Vincent Trocheck is no longer the top center on the market in the wake of Dylan Larkin’s trade request.

A pair of Brown University-bound Long Island twins did what no other siblings ever have in the history of prestigious Chaminade High School — finish their academic tenure as both valedictorian...

The restoration of the iconic Washington, DC landmark mirrors Trump’s surprisingly sophisticated campaign to restore nothing less than America’s soul.

Louis Erebia, 56, used GPS to track his stolen Chevy Silverado before a fatal confrontation, deputies say.

These Are The World's Most Prosperous Countries

The world’s richest countries are not always the most prosperous.

As Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld details below, according to the Atlantic Council’s 2026 Prosperity Index, the world’s most prosperous countries tend to combine economic strength with high living standards.

Meanwhile, the U.S. places 38th overall, far below many smaller advanced economies, highlighting the gap between wealth creation and broader quality of life.

Europe Leads Global Prosperity Rankings

Europe dominates the rankings, claiming 30 of the top 40 spots. Norway, Iceland, Denmark, and Sweden all place in the global top five.

With a GDP per capita of $90K, top-ranked Norway benefits from a resource-rich economy in which oil revenues are channeled into its $2.2 trillion sovereign wealth fund. Having doubled in size over the past decade, the fund helps finance public services such as healthcare and education while supporting long-term economic stability.

High-ranking Iceland and Denmark also combine expansive social programs with competitive business environments and high levels of public trust. Along with their smaller populations, these factors can support stronger overall quality-of-life outcomes.

The rankings below measure how effectively countries convert wealth into broader living standards, including healthcare, education, equality, minority well-being, and environmental quality.

Notably, Central European economies such as Slovenia (#10) and Czechia (#12) outperform many larger and wealthier peers. Strong performances in equality, healthcare, and education help these countries rank ahead of major economies including Germany (#13) and France (#23).

Their performance suggests that prosperity is shaped not only by national wealth, but also by how evenly resources and opportunities are distributed across society.

Singapore Leads Asia in Prosperity

Singapore ranks 18th globally, standing out for its high GDP per capita of $93K and strong public infrastructure. It also has one of the highest life expectancies in the world.

Its ranking reflects decades of state-led investment in housing, healthcare, transportation, and education, helping transform Singapore into one of the world’s most efficient and competitive economies.

Overall, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan all rank in the top 30, scoring well economically but often lower than Northern Europe on equality and social indicators. At the same time, aging populations, rising housing costs, and intense work cultures continue to weigh on broader well-being across several advanced Asian economies.

Why the U.S. Ranks Behind 37 Other Countries

The U.S. ranks 38th overall despite being the world’s largest economy.

The country scores relatively poorly on several quality-of-life indicators, including inequality, environmental performance, and access to opportunity among minority groups. It also ranks 46th globally in life expectancy, the lowest among comparable high-income nations. That gap has continued to widen over time.

The ranking underscores a broader paradox: while the U.S. remains a global leader in innovation, capital markets, and economic output, those advantages have not translated evenly into health outcomes or social mobility.

Prosperity Is About More Than Wealth

The 2026 rankings reinforce a growing global reality that economic strength alone no longer guarantees high living standards. Increasingly, the world’s most prosperous countries are those that combine wealth creation with strong institutions, accessible healthcare, social mobility, and sustained investment in citizens’ well-being.

To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on the top 50 economies by GDP in 2026.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 05:45

After his death, his wife, Kayla Morrow, said she was left "completely numb."

South Carolina—which voted 58 to 40% in favor of President Trump in 2024— was one of only three states that did not see a decline in Education since 2019, the data shows.

We did the heavy lifting, so you don't have to.

Mainchance homeless drop-in center faced closure at the end of June, but two days after The Post wrote about the situation, a court issued a stay until Aug. 11.

5 Future Scenarios For Post-Conflict Iran

Authored by Christian Milord via The Epoch Times,

There likely are more than five scenarios that Iranians could opt for as hostilities unwind, but the following five visions represent the paths Iran could take this year. Will 2026 onward become the Third Islamic Republic, following the first (1979-1989) and the second (1989-2026)? We can only speculate on the outcome of this third evolution, which might or might not be powered by clerics.

First, in the fluid situation on the ground in Iran, There are many forces at work. When the dust clears, Iran might fall right back into the same rut it has traversed since 1979. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei might be at the top of the pyramid, while President Masoud Pezeshkian and members of the Assembly of Experts, Cabinet, Courts, Guardian Council, and Parliament will appear to remain loyal to the ideology of militant Shia Islam. Over 80 percent of Iranians are Shia, while the remainder are adherents of Sunni Islam, the Baha'i faith, Christianity, and inter-religious practitioners.

In this scenario, the dreaded Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) would continue to hold sway as a parallel military force to the national armed forces (Artesh) of Iran - which is by now also fully under the control of the Islamic Republic. While similar to the oppressive prior Mukhabarat (internal intelligence/security) in Saddam Hussein's Iraq and the Assad dynasty in Syria, the IRGC has both an external and internal arm that metes out its own version of justice abroad and at home. Once again, Iranians would be forced to look over their shoulder and censor their own behavior. The regime would rebuild its military weapons arsenal, fund foreign terror proxies, and manipulate the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint with inspections and tolls.

Next, when the conflict concludes and a ceasefire holds, balkanization of the nation might unfold. In Iran, there are large numbers of Balochs, Kurds, Turkmen, etc., who will compete to defend their own interests in a country divided by a limited economic pie. It will be difficult for the regime to rebuild its military arsenal following months of devastation.

Third, following a tenuous ceasefire and shuttle diplomacy, Iran will descend into civil war. There are parallels between Iran's current status and Syria under the rule of Bashar al-Assad (2000-2024). Both paranoid regimes have had little trust in their own citizens to handle freedom and opportunity. Bashar was far more brutal than his father, Hafez al-Assad (1971-2000), and his harsh measures against protests plunged Syria into civil conflict for thirteen years (2011-2024).

Apparently, Mojtaba Khamenei is more hardline than his father, and as supreme leader he would attempt to crush any voices for democracy and justice. His interlocking relationship with the IRGC would help to pave the way to widespread oppression. The outcome of this civil war would be difficult to predict since Iran has a much larger population than Syria, and periodic demands for civil and economic reform often unfold in several urban areas.

Fourth, If a ceasefire is effective and the free flow of commerce commences through the Strait of Hormuz, will Iranians look to the past as a guide to build a brighter future? Will they reject the excesses of the Islamic Republic and seek to create greater economic opportunity and equality for women? It appears as if a large portion of Iranians would favor exiled diaspora leaders such as Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi as a transitional figure to assist internal reformers in shaping a representative government. Of course, the brutal IRGC would attempt to thwart any reformist movement.

Fifth, this last scenario offers some hope. Are the remnants of the Islamic Republic leadership capable of turning away from permanent conflict? Through intense negotiations with several stakeholders, there is a breakthrough to possible peace and security. Instead of merely paying lip service to basic reforms, Iran's leadership would agree to allow for greater freedoms for women, hold open elections, and promote economic growth.

That would include discarding kangaroo court trials that deny rights to Iranians who are arrested. While Iran doesn't have a history of democracy, incremental baby steps in that direction could occur for the sake of Iran's future prosperity and security. The regime would agree to cease funding foreign terror proxies, surrender the half ton of enriched uranium that's underground, halt the production of long range ballistic missiles, and free up the Strait of Hormuz to global commerce.

In this scenario, it's possible that former Presidents Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mohammed Khatami, and Hassan Rouhani would be consulted on reforms that formerly were vetoed by Parliament and the supreme leader. Incrementally normalizing relations with Israel and other regional states could gradually unfold, although signing up to the Abraham Accords might be a tall order. If this fifth option fails, Iran might be doomed to repeat history once again.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 05:00

The helicopter gunship pilots were rescued Monday – and President Trump told reporters on the ground at JFK Airport they were “fine.”

Netanyahu Confirms Israel 'Holding Fire, For Now' - Rejects Iran Red Line To Not Attack Lebanon Summary

• Israel has rejected Iran's warning not to attack Lebanon, though aerial operations appear paused.
• Israeli officials say strikes on Iran being halted at President Trump's request to 'stop shooting'. Netanyahu confirms attacks halted 'for now'.
• Iran FM accuses US of cooperating with Washington: "No one believes that the Zionist regime would carry out any action without prior coordination and cooperation with the United States" (Foreign Ministry spox).
• Iran's sprawling Bandar Imam Petrochemical Complex bombed by Israeli Air Force.
• Houthis seek to close/threaten Bab-el-Mandeb Strait for Israeli-linked passage: We declare a complete and total ban on maritime navigation for the Israeli enemy in the Red Sea.

//--> //--> US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes 17% · No 84%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Israel Rejects Iran Attempt to Assert Red Line on Not Attacking Lebanon

The Lebanon crisis remains a tug-of-war flashpoint between Tehran and Tel Aviv. The Iranians want to force a situation where any broader peace deal with the US is linked directly to achieving permanent truce in Lebanon. However, the US and Israel have consistently sought to thwart these attempts. According to Bloomberg:

Israel will strike Hezbollah in Beirut in retaliation for any further cross-border attacks by the Iranian-backed Lebanese faction, Israel’s defense minister says in a statement, rejecting a threat by Tehran to resume missile salvos in solidarity with Lebanon.

“Any Iranian attempt to link Lebanon to Iran in attacking Israel will be met with a forcible response, as happened yesterday,” Defense Minister Israel Katz says, referring to an air strike in the Lebanese capital which prompted Iranian missile fire against Israeli targets. If Hezbollah attacks Israel’s northern communities “it will lead to an attack on the Dahieh,” he says, referring to a Beirut suburb where support for Hezbollah is strong.

Still, Israel has by late Monday (local) made clear it is halting attacks on Iran and Lebanon 'for now' after President Trump called for immediate restraint.

UPDATE: In their Sunday call, Trump asked a Bibi not to attack Iran. Bibi wanted to respond, so Trump said to keep any retaliation limited and don't let the conflict escalate.

Israel attacked Iran.

On Monday, Trump asked Bibi to end attacks on Iran. Bibi agreed.

No yelling.

— Alex Ward (@alexbward) June 8, 2026 Israel Halts Iran Attacks 'For Now'

"After Iran attacked Israel, I instructed the IDF to strike military and economic targets throughout Iran," Netanyahu said in a fresh Monday statement. "For now, the fire has been contained, because after we struck the terrorist regime in Tehran, it ceased attacking us. If the terrorist regime in Iran makes the mistake of attacking us again, we will respond with force." The key lines from Netanyahu:

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Monday that Israel had stopped its attacks on both Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon, after the Iranian military announced it was halting operations.

In a brief statement Monday, Netanyahu said "Iran and Hezbollah are weaker than ever, and we are stronger than ever - but our struggle with them is not over yet."

Having bombarded both adversaries, he added, "right now, the fire has been halted."

Iran's military headquarters responds: "Should aggression and hostile actions continue—including in southern Lebanon—far more severe and forceful measures than before will follow," it said, according to Iranian state media.

And in a clear sign of the exchange of strikes having ceased:

Iran says flight restrictions have been lifted with airspace returning to normal conditions: state media

Israel Pauses Iran Strikes At Trump's Request

Israel's N12 News is reporting that Israel is halting strike on Iran at President Trump's request. There are widespread initial reports that Israeli forces are indeed pausing the attacks, which persisted overnight through Monday morning, and included attack on a major petrochemical complex. However, the latest Israeli messaging has included a warning on the Lebanon front, per Bloomberg:

Senior Israeli official says Israel is stopping strikes in Iran at Donald Trump’s request, but confirms operations in southern Lebanon will continue at full intensity in the coming days. The official also warns that Dahieh in Beirut could be targeted if attacks on Israeli settlements and civilians continue.

There are also emerging reports (via CBS) that Trump did not order any US defensive efforts to protect Israel from the latest Iranian ballistic missile attacks - which were the first against Israel since the early April ceasefire.

Meanwhile, in a fresh message from Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei, Iran says "Without a doubt ... the actions of the Zionist regime in the region cannot be separated from U.S. policies." Tehran is rejecting the attempts of the Trump administration to distance the US from Israeli actions: "No one believes that the Zionist regime would carry out any action without prior coordination and cooperation with the United States," Baqaei added.

Trump: 'Stop Shooting'

A big question remains is if this flare-up in major fighting, which has featured the first direct attacks between Iran and Israel since the April ceasefire took effect, will be short-lived or whether it will endure and escalate into sustained war.

So far the situation is showing signs it could be short-lived, after early Monday morning President Trump urged Israel and Iran to immediately stop "shooting" in a Truth Social post. He also expressed that this musts be done "quickly" and is still talking up a "final" peace deal - which at this moment looks as distant as ever. Iran is signaling it is ready to get back to ceasefire, but Israel is again threatening the Beirut suburbs.

Here's what Trump wrote in a couple of brief Monday posts:

Israel and Iran must immediately stop “shooting.” ...and:

Both sides, Israel and Iran, are looking to do an immediate CEASEFIRE! Final negotiations on “Peace” are proceeding, subject to ignorance or stupidity getting in its way. The Blockade will remain in place, and in full force and effect, until a “Final Deal” is reached. Things should move quickly. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

Big Round of Israeli Retaliation Airstrikes on Iran

Videos of Israel's further daytime attacks on sites across Iran have emerged, after Iran sent ballistic missile waves on Israel on Sunday, in response for the IDF renewing airstrikes on Beirut.

BREAKING NEWS: Israel is striking targets in Iran.

The Israeli Air Force carried out heavy strikes across Iran. About 15 targets in total. pic.twitter.com/3dlaht2nm5

— Hananya Naftali (@HananyaNaftali) June 8, 2026

For now, Tehran is claiming the current round is over, with Iran's armed forces having announced the end of military operations against Israel while warning of "harsher" attacks if Israel resumes strikes on Lebanon, according to the semi-official Fars news agency.

The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters spelled out the Islamic Republic's latest justification: "Following the aggressions and acts of mischief by the brutal Zionist regime in southern Lebanon and the Dahieh area, carried out with the support of criminal America, the powerful armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran, in support of the oppressed people of Lebanon, delivered a painful response to this regime." And there's a new message from Iranian President Pezeshkian, saying:

"Diplomacy and defense are the two wings of national power; we have neither left the field nor the negotiating table... We will defend the rights of the nation with authority and will not retreat in the face of any threat."

Massive Iranian Petrochemical Complex Hit

Israel, however, made sure to leave a massive mark before any cooling off. The Israeli military confirmed it attacked Iran's sprawling Mahshahr petrochemical complex on Monday, marking its first strike on the critical asset since the April 7 ceasefire agreement.

The Bandar Imam Petrochemical Complex, as it is formally known, is widely seen as one of the crown jewels of Iran's energy sector. Tucked near the southern city of Mahshahr and Bandar Imam Khomeini - a vital industrial port on the Persian Gulf - the sprawling complex consists of more than 50 separate petrochemical plants producing roughly 72 million tons of products annually, according to Iran’s oil ministry.

The Israel Defense Force (IDF) released color footage of strikes on an Iranian air defense system in Iran. Per the IDF release, Israel has gained relative air superiority over western and central Iran and have struck a number of air defense systems in these areas. pic.twitter.com/WjEPzqSu3H

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 8, 2026

Iranian state media reported that one specific installation, the Karun petrochemical plant, was hit twice Monday morning. While a local official told Fars that no casualties were reported, the facility sustained notable structural damage.

IRGC: 'Dangerous Game'

The response from Iran's elite military branch was immediate and ominous. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps condemned the precise strike as a "dangerous game" - openly threatening to expand the scope of how it retaliates against Israel, explicitly noting that future targets will include energy-related sites.

Israel already compiled a visual strike map showing targets it hit in Iran overnight into Monday:

The latest wave of strikes in Iran involved dozens of fighter jets targeting the regime's strategic defense systems. pic.twitter.com/A2mBGwd9LU

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) June 8, 2026

With both sides testing the absolute limits of the April truce, the macro risk to regional energy infrastructure has officially rocketed back to the forefront, as Trump desperately tries - or is at least appearing to - walk the two sides back from the ledge.

Vital Bab-el-Mandeb Strait (Red Sea) Under Threat: Houthis Declare "Total Ban" On Israeli Ships

On the maritime chokepoint front, Iran-backed Houthis declared a full ban on Israeli vessels in the southern Red Sea, warning that any Israeli ship (or linked ship) will be seen as a military target:

"First: We declare a complete and total ban on maritime navigation for the Israeli enemy in the Red Sea, and we consider all enemy movements to be military targets for our Armed Forces from the moment this statement is issued."

The statement continued, "Second: We affirm that we will meet escalation with escalation, and that our military operations will escalate in line with events, the battle, and in conjunction with the axis of Jihad and Resistance."

The announcement is similar to the Houthis' late-2023 campaign, when rebel forces attacked ships linked to Israel or bound for Israeli ports in or around the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. They framed the attacks as retaliation for the Gaza war. Potential disruption of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait in the southern Red Sea will only add to the headaches for global maritime trade, as it is a critical sea route for Asia-to-Europe commerce and Gulf energy exports.

At its narrowest point, the strait is about 18 miles wide, making commercial vessels extraordinarily vulnerable to suicide drones, missiles, mines, and small boats.

More Headlines/Latest Developments

via Newsquawk...

WEEKEND MIDDLE EAST RECAP

• Israel conducted airstrikes on a couple of apartment buildings in Beirut’s Dahiya district on Sunday, in what the military described as targeting a Hezbollah command centre.
• Iran launched four waves of strikes against Israel on Sunday evening in retaliation for an Israeli strike on Beirut, which it stated ‘crossed all red lines’, while it threatened devastating blows if Israel expands Lebanon operations. Iran signalled a halt to attacks if Israel refrains from strikes, but vowed stronger retaliation if Israel strikes back, and it closed its western airspace until further notice.
• IRGC said that the Ramat David Airbase was hit by ballistic missiles and that future attacks are to target US-Israel regional assets, while Tehran Times noted reports of missiles being fired at a US airbase in Jordan.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu was reported to be holding security consultations following the latest developments, while the Israeli military said the missiles launched by Iran were intercepted, although Iran claimed a successful strike on northern Israel.
• US President Trump said he was supposed to announce that a deal with Iran would be signed this week, and now this is happening, while he called for Iran to end the missile fire and return to talks. Trump also stated that he was not happy about Israel striking Beirut and that Israel’s attacks were not coordinated with the US. Furthermore, Trump said he would call Israeli PM Netanyahu to tell him not to attack Iran in response, and noted that they are close to a final deal, which he doesn’t want to blow up.
• US attacked Iranian coastal surveillance sites on Saturday after shooting down drones launched towards the Strait of Hormuz. US military said that Iran had fired missiles and drones towards Kuwait and Bahrain, while drones were also fired towards 4 commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iran Supreme Leader’s military adviser Rezaei said Iran’s attack on Israel on Sunday serves as a warning to Israel to cease strikes on Beirut, while he warned of a further response to aggression.

EUROPEAN MORNING IRAN CONFLICT UPDATES

• US President Trump posted "Israel and Iran must immediately stop shooting."
• US President Trump said Israeli PM Netanyahu will have no choice but to accept whatever deal the US negotiates with Iran because he calls the shots. Trump stated that Iran's strikes had not changed his desire to conclude US-Iran negotiations and he thinks the deal is going on, but we will see what happens, and he would consider a commando raid on Iran if a deal failed, according to FT.
• US told Israel to hold off for a few days to allow space for a deal, with a joint action plan to proceed if talks fail. It was separately reported by Tasnim, citing Israel's Channel 12, that Israeli PM Netanyahu tried to object to US President Trump's request not to react to Iran during a phone call, but in the end accepted it.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said Washington is responsible for the current situation because it is a party to the ceasefire agreement, and the ceasefire has been continuously and repeatedly violated by the opposing sides. Action is to be taken whenever deemed necessary to defend the country's interests. On the ceasefire agreement, the spokesperson said that ending the war in Lebanon was part of the ceasefire agreement, and when this clause is violated, the diplomatic track is also affected. Furthermore, he said the message exchange is ongoing with the US and Pakistan's Interior Minister visited Tehran to push negotiations. Lastly, he said they are not talking about the issues of enriched uranium or enrichment at this stage.
• Iran's IRGC said that by taking action against civilian targets and targeting oil industries, Israel has targeted a dangerous game which will encompass all energy targets in the region and consequences for the global economy belong to the US. Iran's IRGC further said that we are ready to carry out operations on all fronts, and our response has been planned based on various enemy scenarios.
• An Iranian source said that "Iran is prepared for a long-term war... The coming days will show that the calculations of the Israelis and Americans are always wrong", Tasnim reported.
• Iranian Supreme Leader senior adviser said on Sunday that Tehran threatened to block the Bab-al Mandab if Israel escalates its attack, according to CNN citing IRIB.
• Yemen's Houthis announce a complete and total ban on Israeli maritime navigation in the Red Sea. The Houthis also claimed responsibility for a missile attack in Israel and said banning navigation to the enemy is a preliminary step and the group is prepared for additional steps against any escalation.
• Israeli projectile hit an Iranian petrochemical plant, with the Karun petrochemical plant damaged in Khuzestan province.
• Israel's army expects the exchange of strikes with Iran to continue for several days, Al Hadath reported.
• Israeli Minister Smotrich is expected to propose at the next Security Cabinet meeting that Israel should respond to every Iranian missile launched at Israel by striking 20-30 buildings in Beirut's Dehaya district, journalist Stein reported.
• Israeli military said the Israeli Air Force struck military targets belonging to the Iranian regime in western and central Iran.
• Throughout Monday in Iran, there have been reports of loud explosions in Tehran, Tabriz, Isfahan, Kermanshah and Karaj, while explosions were reportedly heard in southern Lebanon. Additionally, there were some arab sources reporting explosions at the Prince Sultan Air Base in central Saudi Arabia, however involvement was denied by Iran.
• Drone attack reported from Yemen towards Israeli targets, according to Tasnim.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 04:35

Watch: French Fighter Jets Shoot Down Kamikaze Drone Over Latvia

There's been another 'mystery' drone shootdown incident over Baltic and Eastern European airspace early Monday.

Latvia's military and Foreign Affairs Minister confirmed that French fighter jets had shot down a drone that entered its airspace, after a series of similar incidents in the region over the past months. Some sources are claiming it was a Russian UAV, while others are claiming the drone is Ukrainian. 

WATCH: French Rafale jet shoots down a Ukrainian kamikaze drone over Latvia this morning. pic.twitter.com/sZ3gJ3gf2m

— Clash Report (@clashreport) June 8, 2026

Baiba Braže, Minister for Foreign Affairs of Latvia, took to X to "thank our French allies for shooting down the drone that penetrated Latvian airspace."

The country's National Armed Forces (NBS) said an airspace warning that had been issued had been lifted by 10:30 am local time. The incident triggered an emergency alert to go out on cell phones across the region.

The NBS sent alerts to mobile phones of citizens living in the eastern municipalities of Ludza, Balvi and Alūksne, after which a military spokesperson told Reuters that the drone entered Latvian airspace from Russia.

"Seek shelter indoors, close windows and doors - follow the two-wall principle," it told residents, after detecting a potential inbound threat in Latvian airspace.

"If you notice a low-flying, suspicious, or dangerous object, do not approach it and call 112. We will inform you when the threat has ended," the NBS added.

The NBS further described that it had deployed additional units to Latvia's eastern border to strengthen air capabilities.

The Kremlin has continued to frame these incidents as likely of Ukrainian origin, seeking to shift blame away from Russia. According to state media:

Latvia did not name the origin of the UAV. However, a similar incident was reported overnight in Moldova, where the authorities said a drone that crashed there was most likely Ukrainian.

The incidents appear to fit a growing pattern of drones launched by Kiev against Russia ending up in third countries.

The interception in Latvia took place over Nautreni Parish, about 15 km from the Russian border. On Monday morning, the Defense Ministry released two videos filmed from the ground by witnesses showing the aircraft being taken down.

Latvia's military has been pointing the finger at Russia for the dangerous intrusion.

📍Lettonie | Destruction d’un drone par les Rafale 🇫🇷💥

➡️ Survol d’un drone au dessus du territoire letton 🇱🇻
➡️ Décollage sur alerte des chasseurs 🇫🇷 engagés dans la mission de l’OTAN Baltic Air Policing depuis la base aérienne de Šiauliai 🇱🇹
➡️ Identification et destruction… pic.twitter.com/NFIMSP7Ibl

— Armée française - Opérations militaires (@EtatMajorFR) June 8, 2026

There have been other repeat drone incidents in Europe, for example the spate of mystery UAV sightings over Northern and Western Europe. With these, it's anyone's guess as to the origins.

Some pundits have suggested these are merely irresponsible hobbyists, or else pranksters. However, the reality of projectiles entering neighboring countries as a result of the Ukraine war is much more serious, and a significant threat to these populations.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 04:15