Authored by former CIA officer Larry Johnson
I stumbled across something pretty bizarre today when I queried one of the AI-search engines about Russia’s capture of territory in Ukraine in 2026. Here is what the Chinese KIMI claimed:
The evidence from multiple sources — including Ukrainian official claims, Western think tanks, and Ukrainian independent trackers — suggests that Ukraine recaptured substantially more territory than Russia captured during the first half of 2026, driven by the southern counteroffensive. However, the pace of Ukrainian gains has slowed since spring, and Russia has made small net gains in recent months (June–July). The overall net for the full year so far appears to still favor Ukraine, but the margin and the exact numbers depend heavily on whose methodology you use.
There you have it… Ukraine is winning the war on the ground according to AI. Let me emphasize that you will find this same propaganda on GROK or Claude. The Western propaganda effort is paying dividends on the information operation side of the house. Even the Chinese-coders who created KIMI are pushing Western propaganda.
via Al JazeeraSo let me give you the actual rundown for 2026. Russia started 2026 with Gerasimov’s report to Putin announcing the liberation of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) — the Donetsk logistics hub under siege for nearly two years — and of Vovchansk in Kharkiv. Through November of 2025 the MoD had reported a steady run of captures, including Petrovskoye in the DPR and Tikhoye and Otradnoye in Dnepropetrovsk.
Moving into the spring of 2026, TASS reported that Russian forces liberated 63 settlements from March through May 2026 — 20 in March, 16 in April, and 27 in May, the strongest month. The regional breakdown was 21 in Kharkiv Region, 19 in the DPR, 14 in Sumy, six in Zaporozhye, and three in Dnepropetrovsk. The Sumy and Kharkiv gains are framed by Moscow as building a “security zone” along the Russian border.
By early summer (June), Gerasimov reported that Russian forces were continuing the liberation of “Donbass and Novorossiya,” advancing on all fronts. The 3rd Army was advancing toward Slavyansk and Kramatorsk — liberating Piskunovka, reaching the outskirts of Nikolayevka, and reported to be less than 5 km from the eastern edge of Kramatorsk, with the capture of Krasny Liman (Lyman) said to be due soon.
Battlegroup West advanced on a broad front; in the Kupyansk area, having repelled Ukrainian attempts to break through to western Kupyansk, with assault units pushing west toward Shevchenkovo. In the Dobropolye area north of Krasnoarmeysk, fighting in Dobropolye and Annovka, with Lenina (Ukrainian name Mirnoye) taken and Shevchenko, Krasnoyarskoye, and Svetloye reported as liberated.
In July TASS counted 32 settlements liberated, with 22 of them — over 68 percent — in Kharkiv Region and the DPR. By battlegroup: North took ten, Center eight, West six, East five, and South three, and the month’s most significant developments were the liberation of Konstantinovka in the DPR by Battlegroup East and the capture of Belitskoye by Battlegroup Center. Konstantinovka is one of the four Donetsk fortress belt cities.
At present the Russians are driving on the last major Ukrainian-held Donetsk agglomeration — the Konstantinovka–Druzhkovka–Kramatorsk–Slavyansk belt — alongside the Sumy/Kharkiv border zone and consolidation in Zaporozhye and Dnepropetrovsk.
Along with the ground operations in eastern Ukraine, Russia has ended Ukraine's ability to conduct maritime and trade operations from Odessa and Nikolaev since July 22nd.
Zelensky’s decision to strike Russian shipping in the Azov Sea made for some good pr for a few days during the big “Ukraine Turning The Tide” campaign, and triggered the expected Russian response, which is magnitudes more damaging to Ukraine. Stupid beyond belief. https://t.co/SIUDo2LtP5
— Mark Ames (@MarkAmesExiled) August 5, 2026Ukrainian farmers will not be able to export products via the Black Sea ports and western supplies, which once flowed freely through Odessa. Ukraine’s maritime lifeline is severed and will not be in operation until after the war with Ukraine is over.
Finally, there is the daily Russian missile and drone attacks on Kiev and other key Ukrainian logistics and military hubs. The destruction of factories and warehouses is effectively bleeding Ukraine dry. The West persists in painting the war in Ukraine as a crusade that sits on the threshold of victory, but the realities on the ground tell a dramatically different, grim story… Ukraine is losing.
Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 23:25UBS analysts identified five long-term forces likely to keep global food inflation "structurally higher" above its pre-pandemic average of about 2.5%, crushing consumer hopes that price pressures will simply fade.
"While food inflation globally has fallen from the COVID peak, a new debate is emerging: is the c2.5% LT average obsolete?" London-based managing director and equity-research analyst Sreedhar Mahamkali asked in a note penned on Monday.
Mahamkali and his team outlined five long-term drivers of global food inflation:
1. Climate risk is global, although its intensity differs by geography and commodity. Academic research suggests climate change could add around 0.9 to 3.2 percentage points to annual global food inflation by 2035.
2. Weak farm profitability limits investment and supply responsiveness globally. The pressure is most visible where farms are small, fragmented or exposed to volatile inputs, although scale, subsidies and access to credit can provide greater protection in some markets.
3. Higher welfare standards are lifting costs in animal protein. UK and European poultry provide the clearest current evidence, but similar changes in stocking density, housing, biosecurity and traceability are emerging across several markets.
4. Labor costs are rising across the food chain. The effect is strongest in labour- intensive farming, processing, logistics, food service as well as the front-end retail, although productivity, automation and the availability of lower-cost labour produce meaningful regional differences.
5. Supply flexibility is constrained globally: some markets face limited land expansion and tighter standards, while others contend with underinvestment and climate vulnerability.
"We expect food-at- home to start regaining share from historical lows, suggesting higher spend in the Food Retail channel with potential tailwinds as we demonstrate with a UK case study. On the other hand, wallet share compression of the discretionary categories means food-away- from-home and non-food retail are more vulnerable," the analyst pointed out.
He expects food inflation to run above historical levels in the UK, Europe, Australia, Southeast Asia and China, while remaining broadly unchanged in the US and Latin America and declining in India:
The UK faces all five drivers, but a rational competitive landscape enables better pass- through, leaving it as the best-positioned retail market.
Europe too faces many of the pressures, but greater fragmentation dilutes pricing power. In the fragmented US, structural cost pressure is largely offset by competition, likely leaving inflation in line with history.
In Latam, Brazil is relatively insulated with moderate impacts from labour cost inflation, welfare standards and a better supply outlook aided by technology with the outlook the same as history.
By contrast, ASEAN sees a sticky underlying cost base and a potential El Niño in H2 suggesting sustained pressure. China is likely to see a gradual increase in food inflation as external cost pressures are effectively transmitted.
Higher operating costs persist in Australia with regulation/welfare standards leading to higher inflation with some costs likely absorbed by retailers. India is the exception, benefiting from policy intervention and productivity gains with lower inflation than in the past.
Visualizing: Food prices could keep rising faster than they did before Covid, remaining above the historical average of about 2.5% annual inflation. Several long-term pressures are making food permanently more expensive.
For the food inflation narrative to continue, the analysts outlined what they are tracking over the next six months:
Here are the winners and losers under different food inflation scenarios:
Five out of eight regions are likely to see higher inflation:
The era of cheap food may be ending. Food inflation could further ignite as other Wall Street desks warn about El Niño risk developing and Professional subscribers can read those notes here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.
Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 23:00