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Heartbreaking photos show murdered In-N-Out worker beaming before Idaho mass shooting
Luka Doncic’s nasty split with ex-fiancée takes surprising turn
Many predict Tony Romo’s NFL broadcasting demise — as CBS has potential out with morals clause
Pakistan teams search on foot for remains of climbers killed in avalanche as weather grounds helicopters
Bradley Cooper and Gigi Hadid’s matching wedding rings are ‘a declaration of love’
Bradley Cooper and Gigi Hadid’s matching wedding rings are ‘a declaration of love’
NYC art gallery sues landlord for $1M and lease termination — for banning indoor cigar smoking
Meghan Markle’s chic linen top is under $200, and somehow still in stock
Meghan Markle’s chic linen top is under $200, and somehow still in stock
Undrain The Swamp: JOLTS Miss Despite Shocking Surge In Government Job Openings To Biden Admin Levels
After five straight months of JOLTS beats, including two blowout prints for April and May and zero misses since 2025...
... it was inevitable that the BLS would eventually pot out a disappointment, if only to preserve the myth of "accurate data."
That's what happened today when in the latest JOLTS report, the US dept of labor reported that in June the US had 7.359 million job openings, down 178K from the (downward revised) May total of 7.537 million, and below the median estimate of 7.454 million.
Where did the openings come from? According to the BLS the number of job openings increased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+97,000) and in federal government. Job openings decreased in wholesale trade (-74,000), nondurable goods manufacturing (-55,000), and mining and logging (-9,000).
Of note, Federal government soared by 39K from 100K to 139K, the highest print not only of 2026 but the highest print going back all the way to October 2024 (i.e., when Biden was still president).
The June drop in job openings was juxtaposed with an overall drop in June employment, which meant that after 9 months of labor surplus which ended in March, we now have a third consecutive month of more job openings than unemployed workers, and in June the surplus was 265K, the biggest surplus since the 566K in Jan 2025, and a concerning development for the broader labor market which according to most other measures continues to fire on all cylinders.
The latest JOLTS report also means that after falling back to 0.9x in March, in April the ratio of job openings rose over 1.0x and was the highest since January 2025.
While the job openings number was weaker than expected for the first time this year, in June we saw continued strength in both hires and quits, In June the number of Quits - or the "take his job and shove it" indicator - rose by almost 100K to 5.252MM from 5.348MM indicating a modest rise in confidence that better jobs await elsewhere, at the same time hires also rose by about 80K, from 3.153MM to 3.232MM, and followed a 110K increase in May.
It goes without saying that job openings sliding while hires are jumping, and more people are voluntarily leaving their jobs, while payrolls are growing (as we will find out on Friday), leads one to scratch their head just what is going on here, besides data massaging of course.
In any case, since this hires number feeds directly into the payrolls calculations (after netting out separations) this explains why the May payrolls report jumped by 57K, even as the JOLTS implied number was far weaker than that.
Overall, this was a weak mixed JOLTS report, with weakness in openings offset by strength in hires and quits, but most notably, the surge in government job openings as Trump appears to backtrack on even more of his promises, and shows that after some significant strength in the early part of of 2026, US labor market is now hitting an air pocket and this could translate into a notable miss in this Friday jobs report. Then again, it is common knowledge that JOLTS lags the payrolls report by a month, which is why it gives us little insight into what Friday's jobs report will be, although if the hires less separations dataset is any indication, it suggests that the July print will come well below expectations.
Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 11:45Keep your family’s schedule on track this school year while this digital wall calendar is 22% off
I saw BTS live at MetLife. The show gave me chills in the best way
Pete Crow-Armstrong embraces bizarre ‘Babe Ruth didn’t exist’ conspiracy theory
PK Kemsley accuses Dorit of ‘depriving’ him of seeing their kids in heated email message amid messy divorce
PK Kemsley accuses Dorit of ‘depriving’ him of seeing their kids in heated email message amid messy divorce
New ranking places California metros on world’s happiest places list — but they’re nowhere near the top
I’m getting stage-ready with these 24% off whitening strips before pageant week
Another major California city deploys crushing crackdown on drivers
CLARITY Act Failure Could Send Crypto Valuations Lower: Bernstein
Authored by Zoltan Vardai via CoinTelegraph.com,
The odds of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act’s (CLARITY) passage are dwindling as the US Senate is scheduled to begin summer recess at the end of this week, threatening another leg down for cryptocurrency valuations, according to wealth manager Bernstein.
Bernstein said that the Senate’s failure to pass the legislation could trigger an immediate negative “industry knee-jerk reaction,” which may result in another leg down for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
“From a tactical standpoint, we expect the crypto market to bottom and start showing momentum towards late Q3 and early Q4 prior to the mid-terms,” Bernstein analysts wrote in a Monday report shared with Cointelegraph.
At the same time, however, the analysts said that Senate failure to pass the legislation may bring more proactive policy support from regulators, including the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which may accelerate rulemaking initiatives under Project Crypto.
Project Crypto is a regulatory initiative first announced by SEC Chairman Paul Atkins in July 2025, which was later expanded into a joint staff initiative between the SEC and CFTC in September 2025. The initiative aims to create a workable regulatory framework for digital assets using existing agency authority while Congress finalizes crypto market legislation under the CLARITY Act.
Bernstein said that the two agencies could provide more interpretive releases tied to the taxonomy of tokens, clear rules around decentralized finance (DeFi) and accelerate the innovation exemption for issuing tokens that would be exempted from securities status during a finite period.
CLARITY Act odds decline to 31%Bernstein’s skepticism is supported by prediction market traders who are betting against the passage of the CLARITY Act before the end of 2026.
Odds of the legislation’s passage before the end of the year are now at 27%, down 11ppt in the past week and down 13ppt in the past month, according to Polymarket, which shows about $3.7 million has been wagered on that prediction.
Meanwhile, White House officials are reportedly weighing a bipartisan ethics counterproposal received on Thursday, following weeks of negotiations between Republican Senator Thom Tillis and Arizona Democrat Ruben Gallego.
The proposal would enable state attorneys general to sue the Department of Justice if it fails to enforce ethics laws against federal officials, three sources familiar with the matter told crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett.
The CLARITY Act aims to establish the first regulatory framework for digital assets in the US, but it has been met with pushback from the banking industry, which argued that the current draft would allow crypto firms to offer yields on stablecoins without facing the same requirements as traditional financial institutions.
On June 26, Galaxy Digital cut its odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 50%, warning that the US Senate is running out of time to move the crypto market structure bill before its August recess.
Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 11:30