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A Three-Part Story: These Were The Best And Worst Performing Assets In February
The Middle East continued to dominate market attention in May, as constant, daily, recurring hopes and media leaks and trial balloons for some kind of US-Iran deal meant that Brent crude oil fell -19.3%, marking its biggest monthly decline since March 2020 as the pandemic lockdowns began. Those hopes for an end to the conflict meant that fears about stagflation eased dramatically, which pushed yields lower and supported risk assets as well. Indeed, the S&P 500 was up another +5.3% in total return terms to a new record, with chip stocks doing particularly well as excitement around AI returned. For instance, the Philadelphia semiconductor index rose another +22.2% in May, taking its YTD gains to a record +81.5% (in 2000 Semis got there faster but... well, you know the story).
And in South Korea, the KOSPI was up another +28.5% in May, taking its own YTD gains to +102.4%. Admittedly, it wasn’t all good news, and sovereign bond yields briefly hit multi-year highs towards mid-May. But as hopes for a US-Iran deal rose, bonds also recovered into month-end as oil and inflation concerns fell back again.
Before we get into the details, a quick summary from Deutsche Bank's Henry Allen how for markets, May played out like a three-part story:
- The first part started strongly, as an Axios report on May 6 said the US and Iran were close to a one-page memo to end the war (it's almost a month later and the two sides still haven't agreed on any memo). Oil prices fell sharply, with Brent crude down from $114/bbl on May 4 to $100/bbl on May 7. So stagflation fears eased considerably, particularly as the US jobs report featured another upside surprise for payrolls.
- The second part was more pessimistic, as Trump posted that Iran’s proposal was “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!” So that raised fears of an escalation, whilst a strong US core CPI print added to concern about more persistent inflation, particularly with the Strait of Hormuz still blocked.
- This period saw bond yields hit multi-year highs in several countries. On May 19, the 30yr Treasury yield closed at a post-2007 high of 5.18%, 10yr bund yields hit a post-2011 high of 3.19%, and Japan’s 10yr yield hit a post-1997 high of 2.78%.
- The third part saw optimism return, as multiple reports suggested a US-Iran deal was again close. In fact, oil prices ended the month at a one-month low, the S&P 500 posted 7 consecutive gains, and the 10yr Treasury yield fell for 7 consecutive sessions for the first time in over a year. So the full numbers pointed to a decent performance overall.
- While events in Iran continued to dominate attention, the other big story in May was the return of AI excitement, with chip stocks massively outperforming. For instance, the Philly semiconductor index was up another +22.2%, and the KOSPI was up +26.2% in USD total return terms. That took their YTD gains to +82% and +94% respectively, after just 5 months of the year. In fact, in local currency terms, the KOSPI is up more than +100% YTD. So, despite all the geopolitical volatility this year, the AI story is still center stage for financial assets.
With that in mind, here is a high-level macro overview of the month that was.
Markets got May off to a strong start, with oil prices coming down as hopes grew for an end to the conflict. Most notably, Axios reported on May 6 that the US and Iran were close to a one-page memo that would end the war and set a framework for more nuclear negotiations. So that raised hopes that the war might soon be over, and Brent crude oil fell from $114.44/bbl on May 4th, to $100.06/bbl on May 7. Then shortly after on May 8, there was then fresh support from strong US data, as the jobs report for April surprised on the upside. That included a +115k increase in payrolls, which on the current series of revisions is the first time since 2024 that payrolls have been above +100k in consecutive months.
But despite that optimistic start, sentiment began to turn again towards the middle of the month. That was primarily driven by geopolitical developments, as Trump posted on May 10 that the proposal from Iran was “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!” That raised fears of a fresh escalation, and Trump said on May 11 that “the ceasefire is on massive life support”. So with no sign of a peace deal and the Strait of Hormuz still blocked, oil prices began to recover again. Moreover, Trump openly speculated about an escalation, saying on May 19 that “I hope we don’t have to do the war, but we may have to give them another big hit”.
For markets, matters weren’t helped in this period by a strong US core CPI print on May 12, which raised fears about more persistent inflation, particularly as oil prices kept moving higher as well. Indeed, on May 18, the 6-month Brent future closed at $92.76/bbl, which was its highest level since the conflict began. So investors were pricing in a more protracted period of high oil prices that extended to the end of the year.
That backdrop meant that bond yields reached new highs in multiple countries. For instance, there were several records set on May 19, as the 30yr Treasury yield closed at a post-2007 high of 5.18%, the 10yr bund yield closed a post-2011 high of 3.19%, and Japan’s 10yr yield closed at a post-1997 high of 2.78%.
Meanwhile in the UK, a few days earlier on May 15, the 10yr gilt yield had also hit a post-2008 high of 5.17%. That came as speculation mounted around PM Keir Starmer’s position after the governing Labour Party lost seats in the local elections. In turn, that triggered multiple ministerial resignations, including Health Secretary Wes Streeting. Shortly after, a by-election was then called after an MP stood down, and Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham announced he’d be standing for Parliament. That initially saw gilts lose ground, as Burnham had previously said that the UK shouldn’t be “in hock” to the bond markets, and had suggested that defence spending should be considered outside the fiscal rules. However, Burnham later ruled out changing the fiscal rules, which led to a clear rally for gilts. So coupled with easing fears of stagflation, the 10yr gilt yield actually fell -20bps over May as a whole, closing at 4.81%.
But even though sovereign bond yields hit multi-year highs in the middle of the month, more positive sentiment returned towards the end of May. That was driven - again - by multiple reports suggesting that a US-Iran deal might be moving closer. For instance on May 27, Iran’s state TV reported on an unofficial draft for an interim peace deal, raising hopes that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen. Then on May 28, an Axios report said that a deal had been reached on a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire, with negotiations also starting over Iran’s nuclear program. And a similar message was then reported by other outlets. So that led to a decent fall in oil prices towards month end, meaning Brent crude ultimately closed at $92.05/bbl, its lowest level in over a month. And markets more broadly ended the month very strongly, with the S&P 500 up 7 days in a row, whilst the 10yr Treasury yield also fell for 7 consecutive sessions for the first time in over a year.
Which assets saw the biggest gains in May?
- Equities: It was generally a strong month for equities, as hopes rose for some kind of US-Iran deal. In total return terms, the S&P 500 was up +5.3%, the STOXX 600 rose +3.2%, and Japan’s Nikkei was up +11.9%. Meanwhile, South Korea’s KOSPI surged another +28.5%, taking its YTD gains to +102.4%.
- Sovereign bonds: As fears of stagflation receded, sovereign bonds advanced, particularly in Europe. So Euro sovereigns were up +1.1% in total return terms, and gilts rose +2.0%. US Treasuries saw a smaller advance as investors brought forward expectations for Fed rate hikes, but they were still up +0.1% in total return terms.
Which assets saw the biggest losses in May?
- Oil: The prospect of a US-Iran deal meant Brent crude fell -19.3% in May, marking its biggest monthly decline since March 2020 when the pandemic lockdowns began.
- Gold: With real yields moving higher and fears about inflation receding, gold prices fell back for a third consecutive month, falling -1.7% to $4,540/oz.
- Bitcoin: it was a dismal month for the crypto currency which swung higher in April, defying the initial post-war gloom in gold and other anti-fiat assets, but then erased almost all April gains, to trade down almost 4%.
Finally, here is a visual recap of the best performing assets in May (in domestic and USD terms).
... and YTD.
Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 22:35
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Florida Becomes First State To Sue "Unsafe" OpenAI And Sam Altman Over AI Harms
OpenAI no longer has to worry about being last in the AI IPO race and lagging ARRs when compared to Anthropic, not to mention a potential Supreme Court showdown against Elon Musk (pending appeal). Earlier today, Florida became the first state to file a lawsuit against OpenAI and its chief executive, Sam Altman, launching a new broadside in a growing rebellion against the alleged safety failings of artificial-intelligence chatbots.
The lawsuit, filed Monday by Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier, claims OpenAI and Altman knowingly released an unsafe product and ignored warnings that it could harm users, the WSJ reported.
The 83-page suit alleges that OpenAI allowed ChatGPT to aid and abet mass shooters, encourage people to take their own lives, degrade users’ critical thinking skills and addict minors to a tool that feigns human compassion.
“This litany of harms is driven by Defendants’ insatiable quest to win the AI arms race and amass large fortunes, despite knowing the danger of ChatGPT,” the suit said.
According to the WSJ, lawmakers, legal authorities and public interest groups have increasingly been raising concerns about the personal and societal risks posed by AI, one of the fastest-growing consumer technologies in history.
The suit says it seeks to protect Floridians from OpenAI’s conduct and mitigate what it describes as a dangerous public nuisance. The suit also seeks to hold Altman personally liable for harm it says he has caused Floridians.
Uthmeier opened a criminal investigation into OpenAI in April over the role its chatbot played in a mass shooting that killed two people at Florida State University last year.
The suit opens with a screenshot of an OpenAI blog post that says ChatGPT was built with safety in mind.
“Not so,” reads the suit’s text under the screenshot.
The suit alleges that OpenAI marketed ChatGPT as reliable despite its tendency to frequently generate dangerous misinformation, which is to be expected from a generative LLM trained on such toxic, liberal cesspools as Reddit and Wikipedia.
“ChatGPT was designed by the Defendants to keep users hooked into conversations by any means, regardless of the truth, because it leads to more use of the chatbot, more training data for its improvement, and more market value for OpenAI,” the suit alleges.
The suit also claims the company exploits human compassion to collect user data and lacks necessary safeguards for minors.
The suit describes a lack of safeguards in ChatGPT for teens and minors as reckless, and refers to instances of adolescent users being encouraged by AI to take their own lives.
The suit says OpenAI created some parental controls, but does not require children’s accounts to be linked to a parent’s account.
At FSU, the suspect turned to ChatGPT as a confidant and sounding board to plan the attack. He asked ChatGPT how many classmates he needed to kill to attract national media attention, and also how to use a gun. The chatbot promptly dispensed advice for his questions.
Until now ChatGPT has mostly faced litigation over copyright infringement claims. In November, OpenAI was ordered by a federal judge to turn over 20 million anonymized ChatGPT user logs to the NY Times and other newspapers suing the chat giant over its generative AI model. The newspapers had demanded the user logs to inspect how ChatGPT is used to create outputs they say infringe their copyrighted works. OpenAI pushed back, citing privacy concerns.
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L.A.'s Choice: More Dysfunction Or Spencer Pratt?
Authored by Victoria Taft via PJ Media,
Spencer Pratt has a "shot" to win the Los Angeles mayor's race, according to the latest polling.
The first thing Angelenos need to begin the biggest turnaround in L.A. history, however, is to admit the city has a problem: self-imposed dysfunction. Then they need to vote for someone who didn't relish in causing it.
The choice going into Tuesday's top two primary election is really that simple.
As we go into the final day of voting in the Los Angeles mayoral race, there are three candidates leading the pack: the worst and most destructive mayor of all time, Karen Bass, Bass's radical, ideological twin and stalking horse, Nithya Raman, and Spencer Pratt.
Bass and Raman have been accused of teaming up to flood the zone with commies to game California's top-two primary system. The top-two system is the Democrat protection act in real time. For normies, to the extent L.A. has them, Pratt is their only hope in this race.
Voters, some of whose ballots were burned up in a "safe" downtown L.A. drop box over the weekend, need to move the needle to the only person in the race who thinks there's a problem.
Pratt believes that the answer to "homelessness" is drug treatment, welcomes the feds' raid of cartel-run open-air drug and human trafficking, and thinks current laws on the books should be enforced to clean up the city. He has made animal abuse by drug addicts on L.A.'s Skid Row a signature issue.
If that addict on your street were your own son, what would you do? That is the defining question that guides my 5 step plan to fix the homelessness problem in LA. We *must* end this evil racket of corrupt politicians and NGOs who profit off the misery of these poor souls. They... pic.twitter.com/9VGwwe6srh
- Spencer Pratt (@spencerpratt) May 21, 2026An L.A. area Democratic adviser told the Los Angeles Times that "anyone has a shot" in this race.
And the latest polling by U.C. Berkeley and the L.A. Times shows that it's a dogfight. Karen Bass has 26% support by those polled, Raman is at 25%, and Spencer Pratt, whose house was destroyed in Bass's Pacific Palisades fire disaster, is at 22%.
Pratt describes this campaign as his destiny. The former reality TV star, whose recent days have been spent touting his wife's music career and taking care of their sons, feeding and loving his Pacific Palisades hummingbirds which he uses as his campaign's logo, and trading in valuable crystals (at one point he believed he'd lost $1 million in crystals in the fire), he has become a man on fire after learning and publicly exposing the incompetence and unpreparedness leading to the January 2025 fires.
Pratt says, "We are going to win."
But don't take his word for it. Watch how his top opponents have attempted to retcon their own public records by suddenly declaring that homelessness and crime are big issues. Bass, the anti-cop, pro-Cuban revolunciónista, has done next to zero to clean up drug and trafficking encampments around businesses and schools, and has fought efforts to do so, but now touts she's "reduced street homelessness by 17.5%." Suddenly, she's the solution to her own problem!
And how bad are things in Bass's L.A.? She's touting a plan to switch street lights to solar power because all the druggies have stolen the copper in the current ones. How brave and visionary is the woman who stops cops from doing their jobs?
Hilariously, the defund the police and fire lady is also taking credit for President Donald Trump and FBI Director Kash Patel's drop in crime that the L.A. Times straight-facedly reports, "includ[es] a homicide rate not seen since the mid-20th century." Do tell, Karen.
Raman, a sitting councilwoman who endorsed Bass until she was convinced that the best way to help her friend was to take up space in the mayor's race, has made similar 59th minute of the 11th hour political conversions.
The only way L.A. can solve its problems is to hire the guy who wants to solve them, not just talk about it.
Go Spencer.
Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 21:45