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US Military Hasn't Identified A Single Confirmed Mine In Strait Of Hormuz, Officials Tell NBC

Zero Rss
2 months 2 weeks ago
US Military Hasn't Identified A Single Confirmed Mine In Strait Of Hormuz, Officials Tell NBC

Just a few hours after President Trump boasted that the US Navy had detonated "numerous" Iranian sea mines, NBC News reported that, even after three months of warfare, the US military has yet to confirm the presence of even a single mine in the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz. 

Citing two US officials and a "person familiar with the matter," NBC said relentless searches of the waterway by aerial and undersea drones haven't found any confirmed mines, merely finding some objects that might be mines. “If anything, the threat has been far less robust than we had feared,” the person "familiar with the matter" told NBC. 

The USS Santa Barbara, a littoral combat ship, is configured for minesweeping duties (Navy photo)

Around the time Trump decided to join Israel in launching a war on Iran in the midst of ongoing negotiations in which Tehran had offered major concessions along the lines of what Trump is demanding today, US intelligence officials believed Iran had placed mines on the south side of the strait ahead of the shooting or shortly thereafter, said NBC. Allies had likewise reportedly concluded that Iran had deployed sea mines. The mine menace was said to be so formidable that, in April, a Pentagon official speaking to US legislators in a classified session said that fully clearing the strait of mines could take six months.  

In a Friday morning social media post in which he foreshadowed a potential ceasefire agreement that would end restrictions on commerce through the Strait of Hormuz, Trump boasted that the US Navy had "removed, through detonation, numerous such mines with our great underwater mine sweepers." 

The NBC report seemingly contradicts multiple CBS News reports. Most recently, on May 19, the outlet reported that US intelligence had identified "at least 10 mines" in the strait. Back in March CBS reported that an official said there were at least a dozen, while another one said fewer than a dozen. CBS attributed this information to officials who weren't named. 

The potential presence of mines has weighed heavily on the minds of ship owners and --more importantly -- shipping-insurance underwriters who've terminated existing coverage and offered new protection at prohibitively expensive rates. Of course, mines aren't the only weapon at Iran's disposal: drones and missiles can wreak havoc as well. 

The international community must condemn Iran for filling the Strait of Hormuz with mines and charging tolls for the passage of commercial vessels. pic.twitter.com/rageLdYqvi

— Ambassador Mike Waltz (@USAmbUN) May 7, 2026

Last week, there were reports that the UK Royal Navy was making moves for a potential deployment of hundreds of sailors on a mine-sweeping mission in the strait. However, as we emphasized, AP reported that this potential deployment would only proceed if a peace agreement were reached, suggesting it's principally a gesture meant to placate Trump, who has pestered NATO allies to help remedy the massive, strait-centered economic disruption caused by the US-Israeli decision to launch a war on Iran over a nuclear weapon program that almost certainly does not exist. 

In March, Trump ranted against nations that were anxious over the shutting of a waterway that transports about 20% of the world's petroleum, in addition to about a third of international fertilizer trade: "Go to the strait and just take it. You have to start learning how to fight for yourself. Go get your own oil." Days later, he said, “The United States imports almost no oil through the Hormuz Strait and won’t be taking any in the future. We don’t need it. We haven’t needed it and we don’t need it.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/30/2026 - 13:25
Tyler Durden

What To Own Before A Bond Market Crisis

Zero Rss
2 months 2 weeks ago
What To Own Before A Bond Market Crisis

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

As I wrote last week, foreign Treasury selling with yields already on the rise has perked up my attention.

For decades, investors have treated U.S. Treasuries as the ultimate safe haven. In nearly every major panic, money rushed into government bonds, not away from them.

But with deficits surging, interest costs climbing, and foreign demand for Treasuries no longer as unquestioned as it once was, some investors have started asking a different question: if the Treasury market itself ever came under severe stress, what assets could potentially hold up best?

The answer is far from straightforward, and it is important to emphasize that a true Treasury crisis remains a relatively low-probability scenario because the entire global financial system is built around the assumption that U.S. government debt remains stable.

Still, in a worst-case bond market environment, some assets appear structurally better positioned than others, so I wanted to explore potential ideas.

The first thing to understand is that a Treasury market crisis would likely not look like a normal recession or stock-market decline. It would probably involve some combination of rapidly rising yields, liquidity stress, foreign selling, repo-market dysfunction, and emergency intervention by the Federal Reserve.

In that environment, traditional portfolio assumptions could break down. Assets that usually offset equity weakness might suddenly move in the same direction as stocks, while investors search for anything perceived as insulated from sovereign debt instability or inflation risk.

Gold is usually the first asset investors discuss in this context, and for understandable reasons. Gold does not depend on the fiscal credibility of any government, has no counterparty risk, and has historically performed best during periods of monetary instability, negative real interest rates, or declining confidence in fiat currencies. If policymakers responded to Treasury stress with large-scale money printing or yield suppression, gold could potentially benefit from concerns about inflation and currency debasement.

As I’ve often written, that does not mean gold would rise immediately during a crisis. In sudden liquidity panics, investors often sell whatever they can. But over a longer horizon, many macro investors view gold as one of the clearest hedges against sovereign debt instability. If I wanted equity market exposure to gold, I’d be in miner ETFs like the GDX and GDXJ. For exposure to the metal itself, I’d want physical bullion.

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Commodity-related assets could also potentially perform well if Treasury stress translated into structurally higher inflation or a weaker dollar. Energy producers, industrial metals, agricultural assets, and infrastructure tied to real economic demand have historically held up better than purely financial assets during inflationary periods. The logic is fairly simple: when governments attempt to stabilize debt-heavy systems through monetary expansion, tangible assets often retain purchasing power more effectively than nominal claims.

That does not guarantee commodity outperformance, especially if a crisis triggered a deep recession, but hard assets are one of the few areas many investors believe could potentially emerge stronger from prolonged fiscal deterioration. Here is a list of commodity ETFs that could be helpful.

One of the more important distinctions in a Treasury-stress environment would likely be between short-term and long-term government debt. Investors often think of “bonds” as a single category, but duration matters enormously. Long-dated Treasuries are highly sensitive to rising yields, meaning they could suffer badly if investors began demanding higher compensation for inflation or sovereign risk. Short-duration cash instruments, on the other hand, mature quickly and can reprice much faster. In a severe stress scenario, investors might still want liquidity and safety, but they may prefer instruments that are not locked into low fixed rates for decades. In other words, the problem may not necessarily be government debt itself so much as long-duration exposure to it.

Read about multiple other assets I think could outperform during a bond market crisis here. 

--

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions.

As of May 20, 2026 I no longer actively trade (read my story here) and my accounts are managed by recurring contributions to trusted third parties and advisors and/or recurring contributions mostly to sector ETFs. Such advisors, through individual equities, options, index funds, mutual funds, ETFs, or other securities, may have positions in names that I know nothing about. Basically, I could own or not own anything at any point, and not have any idea about it.

And all positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

 

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/30/2026 - 12:50
Tyler Durden

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