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Home Refi Activity Plummets As Mortgage Rates Hit 9-Month Highs

Refinancing activity in the U.S. housing market plummeted last week as mortgage rates hit their highest level in nine months, new industry data released on May 27 show.

Refinancing decreased by 18 percent for the week ending May 22 and is up by 19 percent from the same time a year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

“Many borrowers understandably backed away from refinancing last week,” Joel Kan, the firm’s vice president and deputy chief economist, said in a statement.

The decline was largely driven by the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rising by 30 basis points over the past five weeks to 6.65 percent - the highest level since August 2025.

As Andrew Moran reports for The Epoch Times, activity to refinance home loans was spread across the board. Conventional refinance applications fell by 14 percent, Federal Housing Agency applications dropped 18 percent, and Veterans’ Affairs applications tumbled 34 percent.

Overall, refinance loans accounted for 38 percent of all mortgage applications, the smallest share in nearly a year.

But purchase applications also slipped from the previous week, sliding by almost 9 percent.

“Purchase applications were slightly lower across all loan types but still ran at a stronger pace than last year’s pace,” Kan said.

“The average loan size for a purchase application reached another survey high at $473,600, as borrowers with smaller loan sizes were less active given the higher rate environment and its negative impact on their purchasing power.”

Meanwhile, the Federal Housing Finance Agency reported on May 26 that single-family home prices backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac rose by 0.1 percent in March, up from a downwardly revised 0.1 percent drop in February.

‘Sensitive to Headlines’

Mortgage rates, which generally track long-dated U.S. Treasury yields, have accelerated since the war in Iran began in late February, driven by renewed war-driven inflation risks.

The main benchmark 10-year yield reached a one-year high of 4.66 percent last week. The 30-year climbed to 5.18 percent, its highest level since the global financial crisis.

Modest relief could be on the way amid increasing optimism that the United States and Iran are inching closer to establishing a peace deal.

Yields have eased by approximately 20 basis points over the past week, translating into lower rates for homeowners and prospective homebuyers.

As of May 27, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dipped to 6.61 percent, but the gap between current rates and the effective (aggregate) rates that Americans are currently carrying on their homes remains vast...

How long this trend lasts depends on what happens between Washington and Tehran, says Jeff DerGurahian, head economist at loanDepot.

“But with geopolitical tensions still front and center and inflation expectations starting to pick back up, the outlook remains uncertain,” DerGurahian said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times.

“Until there’s more clarity, rates are likely to stay sensitive to headlines, with the direction from here tied closely to how events unfold overseas.”

Inflation data could also play a role in both the broader financial markets and monetary policy.

A de-escalation in the three-month-old Middle East conflict could help mitigate medium- and long-term inflation pressures. But the length of persistent inflation could hang over the Federal Reserve.

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh at the White House in Washington on May 22, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

Traders have recently made an interest rate hike over the next year their base case scenario.

The 2-year yield, which follows expectations for Fed policy, remains above 4 percent. Futures market data suggest a quarter-point increase in March.

Market watchers, however, say the criteria for following through on a rate hike are high.

“From a policy standpoint, the expectation is that the Fed will likely stay on hold for a while,” DerGurahian said.

“The bigger question is how inflation plays out over the next few months, especially if higher energy prices start to show up more broadly across the economy.”

May’s annual consumer inflation rate is expected to reach 4.2 percent, according to the Cleveland Fed Nowcasting Model. If accurate, it would be the highest level of inflation since May 2023.

Ignoring Interest Rates

Despite President Donald Trump’s calls for lower interest rates to support his economic agenda, the data suggest the economy has been indifferent to elevated rates.

Recent growth has been fueled by consumer spending and business investment, mainly artificial intelligence-driven capital expenditures.

Even with markets pricing in higher rates, capex spending plans continue to be adjusted higher.

“It doesn’t matter what the Fed does. There is FOMO [fear of missing out] among hyperscalers, and AI spending is not sensitive to higher interest rates,” Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, said in an emailed note to The Epoch Times.

“In fact, despite the move higher in rates in recent months, the consensus forecast for capex in 2027 continues to rise.”

If Fed officials tighten policy, it might combat inflation but do little to harm the growth prospects.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/28/2026 - 06:55

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The Fragile Balance Between Compassion And Civilization

Authored by Armstrong Williams via The Epoch Times,

What is unfolding across parts of Europe, particularly in the UK under Prime Minister Keir Starmer, should serve as a warning to every Western democracy wrestling with questions of immigration, national identity, social cohesion, and the limits of political tolerance.

A nation can be compassionate without becoming careless. It can welcome newcomers while still expecting assimilation, civic responsibility, and respect for the laws and traditions that hold a society together. But when governments become so consumed with appearing morally virtuous that they neglect order, border enforcement, public safety, and cultural confidence, the social fabric eventually begins to fray.

Across Europe, many citizens increasingly feel that they are watching this happen in real time.

Businesses struggle under layers of regulation and insecurity. Historic neighborhoods in cities such as London, Paris, Brussels, and parts of Germany face growing tensions between communities living side by side but not necessarily living together. In too many places, political leaders have become hesitant to speak honestly about integration failures for fear of being labeled intolerant or divisive. Yet avoiding difficult conversations does not eliminate problems; it merely delays them until frustration hardens into anger.

This is why political movements once considered fringe are now gaining traction throughout Europe. Voters are not simply reacting to economics. They are reacting to a deeper fear that their nations are losing coherence, confidence, and cultural continuity. People want safe streets. They want functioning schools. They want borders that mean something. They want governments willing to defend the rule of law consistently and unapologetically.

And Americans should understand clearly why this debate resonates so strongly at home.

Many believe that the United States would have headed down a similar path had Vice President Kamala Harris been elected president and continued the policies of the previous administration. Whether one agrees with that assessment or not, the concern itself reflects a growing anxiety felt across the Western world: that governments have become more focused on symbolic compassion than sustainable governance.

But this conversation must be approached with moral clarity and balance.

Immigration itself is not the enemy. In fact, immigration has been one of the great strengths of both America and many European nations for centuries. The United States remains history’s greatest example of people from vastly different backgrounds building a common national identity rooted in shared civic values rather than bloodlines or ethnicity.

However, the key word is assimilation.

Successful societies require more than diversity. They require unity of purpose. They require a shared language of civic responsibility, mutual respect, constitutional order, and national loyalty. People can absolutely preserve the beauty of their cultural traditions, religious practices, cuisine, music, and family customs while still embracing the values and identity of the country they are joining.

America succeeded for generations because millions of immigrants came not merely seeking economic opportunity but seeking to become Americans.

That distinction matters enormously.

Previous generations of immigrants often viewed assimilation as a source of pride rather than oppression. Italian, Irish, Jewish, Korean, Indian, Vietnamese, Nigerian, Cuban, and countless other communities maintained elements of their heritage while simultaneously embracing the broader American civic culture. Their children attended U.S. schools, learned English, served in the military, opened businesses, participated in civic life, and gradually became woven into the national fabric.

And importantly, this process continues to endure successfully in many places today.

One can look across countless immigrant communities throughout the United States where assimilation and cultural pride coexist beautifully. Indian American families dominating medicine, engineering, and entrepreneurship while maintaining strong family traditions. Nigerian immigrants excelling academically and professionally while contributing deeply to churches, local businesses, and civic institutions. Hispanic immigrants serving in law enforcement, the armed forces, and small-business ownership while maintaining rich linguistic and cultural traditions. Asian American communities revitalizing neighborhoods, building thriving schools, and producing some of the highest educational outcomes in the country.

These examples remind us that assimilation does not require cultural erasure. It requires civic alignment.

The problem emerges when political leaders encourage fragmentation over integration when multiculturalism evolves into parallel societies separated by language, values, expectations, and allegiance. A nation cannot endure indefinitely if large groups increasingly identify more with grievance, tribalism, or foreign conflicts than with the country they now call home.

Europe is confronting this tension directly.

In parts of the UK, France, Belgium, and Sweden, leaders are now facing difficult questions about whether integration policies failed to create a strong enough shared national identity. Rising crime, anti-Semitism, extremist ideologies, gang violence, and social unrest have intensified concerns among ordinary citizens who feel dismissed whenever they raise legitimate worries about assimilation, public safety, or cultural cohesion.

Yet this issue must never become an excuse for hatred or blanket condemnation of immigrants themselves. That would betray the very values Western civilization claims to defend. The overwhelming majority of immigrants come seeking peace, opportunity, safety, and dignity for their families. Most are hardworking, law-abiding, and deeply patriotic toward the nations that welcomed them.

But nations also have the right—indeed, the obligation—to expect those entering legally to respect the law, contribute productively, learn the culture, and embrace the civic values of their adopted homeland.

Without that expectation, societies eventually lose the trust and shared identity necessary for democracy itself to function.

History repeatedly teaches the same lesson. Civilizations rarely collapse overnight from external invasion alone. More often, they weaken gradually from within through cultural uncertainty, institutional decay, leadership paralysis, declining civic confidence, and an unwillingness to defend the principles that created stability in the first place.

The challenge facing the West today is not whether immigration should exist. Immigration will always exist. The real question is whether leaders still possess the wisdom and courage to preserve social cohesion while remaining humane, lawful, and fair.

Because compassion without order eventually produces chaos.

And order without compassion eventually produces cruelty.

Great nations require the discipline and maturity to uphold both simultaneously.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/28/2026 - 06:30

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Solar Stocks Flash Major Technical Breakout As Tariff Talk Escalates

Solar stocks are showing a clear technical shift, breaking above a well-defined downtrend after more than five years of sustained pressure.

UBS analyst Catherine Gordon is attributing the surge in solar stocks to falling yields and renewed policy momentum. A potential Section 232 tariff announcement in mid-to-late June is adding fuel to the rally, with First Solar leading the charge.

The UBS Solar basket (UBXXSOL) is now up 40% year-to-date.

Gordon provided more context on what's powering UBXXSOL higher:

Clean tech names are outperforming again on Tuesday, with solar leading higher alongside more speculative growth baskets as yields move lower. The backdrop has been broadly supportive, with the UBS Solar basket (UBXXSOL) now up 33% MTD.

First Solar is the standout mover, with the stock trading around $268 and continuing to rally in anticipation of a potential Section 232 tariff announcement in the near term. Earlier today, Windham hosted Toyo Solar on a call, where the company indicated that mid‑ to late‑June could be the timing for Section 232, with measures potentially including a minimum import price alongside tariffs. There is also scope for domestic manufacturing investments to be used as an offset to tariff liability.

The prevailing dynamic has been "buy the rumor and buy the news," with momentum building into the expected policy update. Beyond S232, the next key catalyst for First Solar (FSLR) is likely to be order commentary on 2Q earnings calls.

Elsewhere, sentiment remains constructive across parts of the solar complex, with Nextracker (NXT) still viewed as a core holding. On the residential side, there have been questions around the sharp moves in SolarEdge (SEDG) and Enphase Energy (ENPH). Enphase's recent announcement around a solid‑state transformer appears to have driven a short squeeze. However, this is not viewed as a differentiated development, with multiple electrical equipment players — including Schneider Electric and ABB — already pursuing similar technologies. Against that backdrop, the residential rally looks vulnerable to fading.

Last month, Goldman analyst Brian Lee told clients that "Utility-scale demand remains resilient amid pricing volatility, while residential stays challenged but with cleaner channel conditions." Professional subscribers can read the full GS note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/28/2026 - 05:45

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NATO 3.0: Report Details 'Fundamental Restructuring' Of US Commitments

Via The Cradle

The US is moving forward with a "fundamental restructuring" of its commitments to European security, transitioning from the traditional "burden sharing" strategy to that of "burden shifting," according to a Der Spiegel report published on May 26.

Under the new vision dubbed "NATO 3.0," Washington expects European allies to assume responsibility for the continent’s entire conventional defense.

Source: Dunya

In this new framework, the US will primarily provide a nuclear deterrent rather than the broad military support it has historically guaranteed.

This transition, which the report notes has blindsided European officials, involves drastic reductions in US military assets previously committed to the "NATO Force Model."

Alexander Velez-Green, an envoy to US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, recently informed allies that Washington intends to cut its contribution of fighter jets by one-third and significantly reduce the number of strategic bombers, navy destroyers, and aerial refueling aircraft. 

The report notes that the US plans to stop providing submarines to the NATO pool entirely and expects Europeans to supply their own reconnaissance and armed drones.

The primary driver for this withdrawal is the US military’s pivot toward the Asia-Pacific, though officials also cited the need for flexibility to commit assets to military campaigns in West Asia and the Western Hemisphere. 

Washington reportedly seeks to prepare for a potential "two-front conflict," noting that US intelligence identifies 2027 as the "key date" when China may be capable of launching an offensive against Taiwan.

Given the possibility, the US no longer wishes to have its key assets “tied up” by fixed NATO commitments.

The report highlights an intensely fast-paced transition, with the US demanding that European allies present specific offers to fill these newly created military gaps by early June, aiming to formalize the new model at the July summit in Ankara.

While NATO leadership officially portrays the move as a way to reduce “over-dependence” on the US, European diplomats find the requirements far more severe than anticipated, with European leaders reportedly stunned by the scale and speed of the requirements. In secret meetings, some representatives even interpreted the US insistence on rapid compliance as an "indirect threat" toward those who fail to act quickly.

In line with the new “burden shifting,” US President Donald Trump announced on May 22 that he would send an additional 5,000 troops to Poland – a move reportedly driven by his personal relationship with and endorsement of Polish President Karol Nawrocki. 

❗️Reuters reports NATO is forming 3 divisions with 60,000 troops and strengthening rapid deployment systems on its eastern flank. The plan focuses on reinforcing the Baltic region, including Estonia and Latvia, while raising readiness for rapid response to potential threats from…

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) May 26, 2026

This decision has "stirred confusion" within the Pentagon, as it contradicts earlier orders to reduce the US military presence in Europe, such as the planned withdrawal of over 5,000 soldiers from Germany.

While Polish leadership welcomed the surge, US defense officials and diplomats have criticized the shift as impulsive, noting that it creates a sense of strategic inconsistency just as the US prepares to brief NATO allies on its future military footprint. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/28/2026 - 05:00

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