By Molly Schwartz, cross-asset macro strategist at Rabobank
Markets laid in wait for war-related headlines yesterday after Trump truthed on Monday night that “negotiations with the Islamic Republic of Iran” were “proceeding nicely.” It’s also possible that “proceeding nicely” meant that the US was once again escalating to de-escalate, as hours later the US military confirmed reports of strikes against Iranian military assets, including speedboats which were laying mines in the Strait. While the news reel was sparsely populated, it did flag that the US Navy was restarting to guide ships through the Strait with a plan to help a dozen vessels through the passage in the coming days. However, minutes later a “US official” denied these claims, leaving traders, and vessels in the Strait, stranded. Brent crude oil climbed around $3.50 from open to $99.50/bbl.
A look at the current landscape suggests to us that a peace deal is far beyond the horizon. Rabobank’s global strategist, Michael Every, released a report, The Hormuz Odyssey: a new base case, which updates our base case to see complications in the Strait for around another three months. The possible outcomes of the war in Iran are immeasurable, but even in the pipe dream scenario where the war ends tomorrow, logistics are king. If a deal were to be magically achieved tomorrow, there are still somewhere around 1,500 ships still trapped in the Strait of Hormuz.
The Strait is incredibly narrow and it will take time for these ships to safely pass through. Energy strategists Joe DeLaura and Florence Schmit elaborate on the implications for energy prices in their recent report, Longer Stalemate, Higher Prices. Needless to say, they project oil staying higher for longer, forecasting Brent averaging around $120/bbl in Q3 of this year, which would imply a return to levels still not seen since 2022.
To further complicate the outlook, the proxy war in the Middle East between Israel and Hezbollah has also re-escalated, with the IDF reporting that it hit over 100 Hezbollah sites in Southern Lebanon, including “storage facilities, command centers, and observation points.” This, of course, likely puts another obstacle in the way of Trump’s insistence that GCC members join the Abraham Accords and normalize relations with Israel as part of a broader peace deal. While many of the GCC states are no friend to Hezbollah, the implications of normalizing relations with Israel during elevated hostilities in the Levant are a political nightmare.
US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, hinted that in his view, negotiations to end the war may “take a few days,” which is certainly more optimistic than our view of a few months. Nuclear programs will continue to stand as a major barrier towards any sense of an agreement between the US and Iran. Total regime change in might not be in the cards, but achieving a firm commitment from Iran that it promises to table its plans for nuclear development is the only way the US can exit the war and keep some of its street cred.
But while nuclear proliferation is a major issue abroad, it may be presenting opportunities at home. The New York Times reports that the US government may allow private companies to use “Cold-War era plutonium from dismantled nuclear warheads” as fuel for nuclear power plants.
US Treasury yields traded mostly flat from the open, across the yield curve, with a slight bull-steepening bias, and the DXY index was little changed at 99.19. The US 5-year, 30-year spread widened again, back to 84bp, bouncing off of 1-year lows of 81bp on Friday. The US OIS curve remains positioned firmly in favor of hikes, pricing in around 70% of a hike by year-end, and a full hike by March of next year.
But the US consumer outlook remains grim. US Conference Board consumer confidence picked up a touch from 92.8 to 93.1, but remains firmly planted in negative territory. The components of the headline index—present situation and job outlook—have been trending consistently lower since 2021, while consumer expectations also remain in negative territory. While we should note that consumer confidence has been a poor indicator of economic performance for quite some time now, a poor consumer outlook coupled with a dire inflationary outlook could spell trouble for those at the lower end of the income spectrum. We will see headline and core PCE price data for April on Thursday, expected to register 3.8% y/y and 3.3% y/y, respectively.
Early yesterday morning, Russian foreign minister, Lavrov warned US citizens to evacuate Kyiv, ahead of military escalation in the region. The battle between Russia and Ukraine wages on, and so does that between the Russian Central Bank and Euroclear. Since the war in Ukraine and the ensuing sanctions on Russia, Euroclear has frozen Russian assets, with some EU players considering using said assets to help fund Ukraine. While that prospect remains tabled (for now), Russia is still trying to get its money back.
In the court of public opinion, views are mixed. But in the court of Russian law, the Russian courts have ruled decisively—in favor of Russia. The Moscow court of arbitration has ruled that Russia has incurred losses of approximately USD 250 billion after having been frozen by Euroclear, with the AP saying that “lawyers argued that Euroclear’s right to a fair trial was violated.” Euroclear, meanwhile, made its opinion on the Russian ruling abundantly clear: they do not care and Russian assets may be stranded in Belgium for the foreseeable future.
Tyler Durden Wed, 05/27/2026 - 09:40Lululemon has settled its proxy fight with founder Chip Wilson, ending one of the year's top proxy battles, according to Reuters. This follows a fiery letter to shareholders from Wilson earlier this year, calling for activism, as the athletic apparel retailer has seen its shares collapse, lost market share in the leggings market, and become entangled in multiple see-through leggings quality-control issues with customers.
Reuters first reported Tuesday evening that Lululemon and Wilson were nearing a settlement that would give him two board nominees and include a commitment to find another mutually agreed-upon director at a future date.
The agreement would give Wilson regular access to Heidi O'Neill, Lululemon's incoming CEO, according to Reuters, which cited sources.
The dispute comes as Lululemon's North American sales weaken, competition from Alo and Vuori intensifies, and the stock is down nearly 77% from its 2024 peak of around $500 per share.
In late February, Wilson wrote a fiery letter to shareholders, in which he said, "In support of all shareholders, I am pursuing a campaign to catalyze a quantum of change that is sorely needed at Lululemon. To effect that change, I have pursued private, constructive dialogues with the Lululemon Board of Directors (the 'Board') for the past few months. My attempts toward a sensible solution have not been reciprocated."
He continued, "While we have proposed changing three directors, our strong feeling is that more than three directors should be replaced."
Wall Street analysts tracked by Bloomberg are mostly neutral on the stock.
Even before Chip's public letter, we pointed out: "Lululemon's path back to relevance in the athletic space may require a shake-up of the Board."
Time for Chip to launch a plan to save comapny he founded in 1998.
Tyler Durden Wed, 05/27/2026 - 09:20Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,
Former President Joe Biden filed a lawsuit on May 26 in a bid to block the Department of Justice (DOJ) from releasing audio recordings and transcripts of his private conversations with a biographer that were connected to a 2023 special counsel probe into his handling of classified records.
The lawsuit, filed in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, comes as the DOJ planned to release the materials to the House Judiciary Committee and conservative think tank The Heritage Foundation on June 15.
The materials stemmed from private conversations Biden had with ghostwriter Mark Zwonitzer in his home between 2016 and 2017 as part of the writing process for his memoir titled “Promise Me, Dad: A Year of Hope, Hardship, and Purpose.”
The book detailed Biden’s decision to run for the 2016 presidency while his eldest son, Beau, fought brain cancer and later passed away in 2015, according to the lawsuit.
The DOJ later obtained the materials in 2023 as part of former special counsel Robert Hur’s investigation into Biden’s handling of classified information after his vice presidency.
The probe ended in 2024 with findings that Biden had willfully retained classified materials, though no criminal charges were pursued. Hur said at the time that the evidence fell short of proof beyond a reasonable doubt.
According to Biden’s lawsuit, the DOJ initially withheld the materials under the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) on the grounds that they were exempt from disclosure, but the department later reversed its position under President Donald Trump’s second term.
The lawsuit seeks judicial review to stop the DOJ from disclosing the materials, citing Biden’s privacy rights and the DOJ’s obligations to protect “sensitive and highly personal law enforcement information.”
“Every American, including a sitting or former Vice President, has a right to privacy in the personal conversations he has within his own home,” the lawsuit stated.
“And when the U.S. Department of Justice obtains that private information through a criminal investigation, the department bears a particular responsibility to protect it from disclosure.”
The Epoch Times reached out to the DOJ for comment, but did not receive a response by publication time.
Biden has earlier sought to intervene in the Heritage Foundation’s lawsuit against the DOJ over the materials. Last week, a judge allowed Biden to join the case but barred him from pursuing claims about the committee’s request for the materials, according to court records.
Oversight Project, a legal advocacy arm of The Heritage Foundation, said on May 11 that the public deserves access to the materials and called for full transparency regarding Hur’s 2023 probe.
“President Biden revealed classified information and was not prosecuted,” Oversight Project President Mike Howell said in a statement, adding, “These tapes will further prove the massive lie regarding Biden’s fitness for office and the fact Biden revealed classified information.”
Tyler Durden Wed, 05/27/2026 - 08:45