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"Closing Time" On The AI Bubble Is Sooner Than Most Think; Ed Dowd Warns Iran War Brings Global Recession Closer
Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,
Wall Street money manager and financial analyst Ed Dowd of PhinanceTechnologies.com warned at the end of May we could see “$250 a barrel oil and 11% inflation as a worst-case scenario in 2026.”
That didn’t happen... yet. Dowd explains, “We had two scenarios when we talked last..."
" One was the conflict would get resolved in the April – May time frame.
Oil would peak out around $125 (per barrel), and inflation would peak out in May and go lower.
That’s what happened, but recently, MOU (Memorandum of Understanding with Iran) has been torn up and oil is back on the rise.
Oil collapsed to around the low $70s to high $60s after the MOU. It’s now $80 and change.
So, unless this is resolved quickly, the other scenario is on the table...
If the conflict continues and gets worse, and you want to watch it progress, if we break out technically, meaningfully to $100 to $125, and back test and hold support, then the next level is $200 to $250 a barrel.
All we are talking about here is my thesis that we are going into a global recession, and it gets pulled forward that much quicker. We will have a burst of inflation and massive demand destruction.”
The Iran/US war is not the only headwind Dowd sees.
AI (artificial intelligence) investment is in bubble territory according to Dowd, and the lights are about to go out on that trade. Dowd says:
“The stock market is 45% AI and AI adjacent.
When the equity market figures out the party may be slowing or it’s over, that will affect the stock market.
It’s a feedback loop that I think is beginning. Let’s call it the AI summer of discontent...
Closing time is closer than most people think. The party has been going on for a while.
We had this huge impulse in semiconductor stocks in April and May. The indices have 17% to 19% of the S&P 500, the semiconductor index.
That is a warning sign in and of itself. This is a notoriously cyclical boom and bust industry... There is inflation going on in this... AI build.
All the projections of return on investment are going the way of the dodo bird because they are now paying exorbitant prices for commodity memory chips. Also, power costs are going up, and they have to build power plants. The whole math does not work with the AI infrastructure in the credit driven AI complex.
So, the math kind of implodes on itself at some point...
I think the party is closer to the end than the beginning, and closing time will be upon us soon.”
When the AI bubble pops, Dowd expect a “nasty pullback in the stock market.”
This is why Dowd is telling investors to raise cash levels just like famed investor Warren Buffett is doing by holding record amounts of cash in his fund. Dowd says, “Cash is dry powder.”
And for those who think the US dollar is going to tank, Dowd thinks just the opposite and says, “The dollar looks quite bullish.”
Dowd still likes gold as a core asset, and his target price is unchanged at $10,000 per ounce in the next few years.
There is much more in the 34-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes One-on-One with money manager and investment expert Ed Dowd as he explains why he is still seeing big trouble for the US economy. Dowd predicted this was coming in January with his report called “US Economy Outlook 2026.”
To get Dowd’s latest red-hot reporting, go to his new Substack called “Ed Dowd: Beyond the Narrative,” by clicking here.
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Software Vendor Fires Back At NJ Governor Over Noncitizen Voting Scandal
New Jersey's noncitizen voter registration scandal has taken an uncomfortable turn for Gov. Mikie Sherrill, and the vendor she blamed for it is no longer taking the fall quietly.
IDEMIA, the French multinational that has worked with New Jersey's Motor Vehicle Commission for more than 40 years, is refusing to play the role assigned to it. What the company is now saying about who was responsible for approving registrations undercuts the governor's account.
A voter arrives at the Moorestown Township Fire Station to cast a ballot in the 2025 general election. (Emma Lee/WHYY)Sherrill revealed on Tuesday that more than 6,600 noncitizens ended up on New Jersey's voter rolls between June 2023 and June 2024, and that fewer than 400 of them cast ballots. The individuals answered "no" when asked on an MVC keypad whether they were U.S. citizens, she said, and "through no fault of their own, the system registered them anyway." New Jersey has roughly 6.6 million registered voters.
"Let me be clear: this entire situation is unacceptable," Sherrill said. "It's unacceptable that the vendor released software with such a glaring error, it's unacceptable that the MVC took a year to get this issue fixed and it's unacceptable that no one in the previous administration brought this to light, demanded accountability or took action when it happened years ago."
The previous administration was that of former Gov. Phil Murphy, also a Democrat.
IDEMIA told a different story. The company disputed the governor's characterization of its role, saying its software's function is limited to transmitting data from the MVC to New Jersey's Division of Elections, which the company says bears ultimate responsibility for verifying voter eligibility.
"IDEMIA works with the New Jersey Motor Vehicle Commission, and has for more than 40 years, to support the process through which eligible individuals may indicate their interest in registering to vote when applying for or renewing a driver's license or state-issued identification card," the company said in a statement. "IDEMIA's role is to transmit information through the motor vehicle system. The voter registration information is transmitted to the New Jersey Department of State, Division of Elections, which is ultimately responsible for verifying eligibility to vote. Information submitted by IDEMIA must still be validated and adjudicated by the Division of Elections."
Sherrill has said New Jersey will phase out the company's software regardless. She has also ordered the erroneous registrations removed, directed her chief counsel to investigate, and retained an outside firm, CSG Law, to conduct an independent review.
She simultaneously downplayed the severity of the situation and accused the Trump administration of trying to weaponize elections for political gain, saying the president has "zero credibility on the issue of election integrity."
The White House is all over it. "Democrats and their media allies have repeatedly said it is impossible for noncitizens to register to vote, let alone cast a ballot. Time and again, they have been proven wrong. As President Trump has said, there is nothing more important than the integrity of our elections," White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson said. "And this latest incident underscores the absolute necessity of the SAVE America Act. American voters deserve to have confidence that our elections are safe and secure."
Feds Get InvolvedThe dispute is no longer confined to New Jersey. Assistant Attorney General Harmeet Dhillon of the Justice Department's Civil Rights Division has opened a federal investigation and demanded the state produce full names, dates of birth, nationalities, residential addresses, and registration dates and locations for the affected registrants, citing New Jersey's obligations under the Help America Vote Act and the National Voter Registration Act.
Running alongside it is a far larger and far less settled number. The Department of Homeland Security says it identified 19,497 New Jersey voter registrations where an individual's name, date of birth, address, and Social Security number matched federal records indicating the person is a noncitizen, and that a broader review suggests the figure could reach 35,152.
"Election security is national security," said DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin. "As President Trump announced last night, DHS has identified over 250,000 potential non-citizens illegally registered to vote in just 4 U.S. states. Only Americans should be electing American leaders."
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Jim Jordan Refers Jack Smith To DOJ For Possible Prosecution
Authored by Bryan S. Jung via PJ Media,
Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, has formally referred former Special Counsel Jack Smith to the Department of Justice for possible criminal prosecution, alleging that Smith made false statements under oath to Congress about the scope of his investigation into President Donald Trump.
According to Fox News, in a July 22 letter to Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche, Jordan alleges that Smith intentionally misled the House Judiciary Committee during a December 2025 deposition by testifying that his office obtained only telephone toll records and did not seek or review the contents of lawmakers' text messages.
Jordan contends newly released records contradict that testimony and amount to obstruction of Congress.
"All individuals have an obligation to comply with a duly authorized congressional inquiry. Mr. Smith is no different," Jordan writes, accusing the former special counsel of making "intentionally false statements" designed to impede congressional oversight.
The referral follows the release of documents by Republican Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley, who says Smith's investigative team accessed and reviewed text messages involving 44 members of Congress from both political parties, along with current and former Trump administration officials, during an investigation known as "Operation Arctic Frost."
Grassley also alleges investigators viewed some communications before a Justice Department "filter team" completed its privilege review, raising concerns about compliance with procedures intended to protect privileged information.
During his December deposition, Smith testified that his office sought telephone toll records containing historical routing information - including call numbers, dates, times and durations - but not the contents of calls or text messages. Republicans argue the newly released records show Smith's team obtained and reviewed message content, directly contradicting his sworn testimony.
The Justice Department confirms receipt of Jordan's criminal referral and says it will investigate any evidence of criminal conduct. No criminal charges have been filed, and the referral itself does not constitute a criminal prosecution.
Smith denies wrongdoing.
Last week, Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) told Fox News' Sean Hannity that Smith should be "prosecuted."
"What did he do with the text messages? We don't know that yet. What we do know is he absolutely read them. He absolutely shared them with members of his team and all of that illegally," Hawley alleged.
"The Justice Department requires that there be screening for any members of Congress [regarding] their text messages. Jack Smith said under oath that he didn't seek the text messages of members of Congress, but in fact, we know that he did. So he lied, he violated the law, he violated the Constitution. This guy ought to be prosecuted."
Democratic House Judiciary Committee Ranking Member Jamie Raskin condemns the referral as "baseless and vindictive," arguing Republicans misrepresent Smith's testimony. Raskin says committee investigators never specifically questioned Smith about presidential records or members' text messages during more than 13 hours of testimony and maintains Smith truthfully answered the questions that were asked regarding telephone toll records rather than message content.
The referral marks the latest escalation in congressional Republicans' scrutiny of Smith. In November 2025, Jordan separately referred Smith's former deputy, Thomas Windom, to the Justice Department for alleged obstruction of Congress.
Jordan told then-Attorney General Pam Bondi that "Congress cannot perform its oversight function if witnesses who appear before its committees corruptly refuse to provide information that the law requires them to furnish. The obstruction of a committee investigation undermines Congress's core constitutional oversight obligations."
Jordan's latest referral asks the Justice Department to determine whether Smith's testimony warrants prosecution for perjury or making false statements before Congress.
Tyler Durden Thu, 07/23/2026 - 10:30