Aggregator

*Adds to cart.*

Key Events This Week: All Eyes On The First CPI Print Over 4% In 3 Years

Before we look at the Fed, let's take another quick look at the rollercoaster of the past trading session: a hawkish Fed repricing after the payrolls report triggered a sharp US equity sell-off on Friday with the S&P 500 falling -2.64% (2.59% on the week), its worst day of the year so far, snapping a run of nine consecutive weekly gains. Tech led the declines, not helped by Broadcom’s softer earnings earlier in the week. The NASDAQ dropped -4.18% on Friday (4.68% on the week), while the Philadelphia semiconductor index plunged -10.26% - its worst day since March 2020, and dubbed the "Red Sox."

All of this comes as tensions in the Middle East are building again with renewed strikes between Iran and Israel, despite what should be the 61st day of a truce or ceasefire. Iran targeted Israel with a missile attack yesterday after an Israeli strike in Beirut, while Israel’s military has responded with strikes against targets in Iran overnight. The IRGC warned yesterday evening that its actions would mark "a full week of continuous strikes", but there are also signs that the sides are looking to avoid a full escalation, with Axios reporting Israel strikes were “relatively limited” in scope and Iranian state media denying that it launched a strike towards a US airbase in Saudi Arabia after a missile alert there. The de-escalatory tone appears particularly evident from the US side, with Trump reportedly urging Israel not to strike back earlier last night, telling Axios that "The Iranian strikes didn't hurt anybody. Hopefully Israel is not going to retaliate.” This and the wider quotes from Mr Trump sound like a President who really doesn't want this war to escalate any further and is trying to find all ways to avoid it. Still, the events have further complicated the chances of an imminent deal. The key sticking points to a deal remain the release of Iran’s frozen assets, its stock of highly enriched uranium, developments in Lebanon, and how control of the Strait of Hormuz will be handled going forward.

So what a backdrop for the main economic event of the week, namely Wednesday’s May US CPI report. The timing is critical with the Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting, and Kevin Warsh's first as Chair, a week later. For a while now the case for hiking has looked notably stronger than the case for a cut and last Friday’s payrolls has hugely reinforced that. Non-farm payrolls rose by 172k, comfortably ahead of consensus expectations of 88k, with private payrolls of 120k also exceeding forecasts (89k). It left the 3 month average for payrolls at a 2 year high of +188k. In addition, net revisions to prior months were positive by around 93k, adding to the impression of underlying momentum. While a large share of the upside came from leisure and hospitality hiring and a sharp increase in local government employment, job gains were not narrowly concentrated. The three month diffusion index rose to 53.8, its highest level since March 2024, signalling a broadening in employment growth across sectors.

Against this backdrop, attention now shifts squarely to inflation. DB economists expect energy to play a key role in May’s CPI, with a sharp increase in petrol prices (around +6.8% seasonally adjusted) lifting headline inflation more than core. They forecast headline CPI to rise by around +0.55% month on month (after +0.6% in April), while core CPI is expected to increase by a still firm +0.22% (after +0.4%). On a year on year basis, headline CPI is projected to move back up to around 4.3%, from 3.8%, while core inflation is expected to edge higher to roughly 2.9%.

As BofA's Hartnett cautions, with US CPI set to print above 4% YoY and on course for 5% by US midterms, in the past 100 years once CPI crosses 4% on average SPX -4% next 3 months, -7% next 6 months 

Beyond the aggregates, the composition of the CPI will be closely scrutinized. DB economists expect continued tariff related price pressures in apparel and ongoing firmness in certain information technology goods. Lagged wholesale price increases could also feed through into used car prices. On the services side, shelter inflation is likely to normalize following recent distortions, but markets will be watching carefully for any spillover from higher fuel costs into core services such as airfares, delivery services and other transport related components. Evidence of broader pass through would add to concerns about inflation persistence.

Thursday’s PPI release will be an important complement to the CPI, particularly as it informs the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation measure. Economists expect PPI to rise by around +0.5% month on month, following a strong April print. Based on current CPI assumptions and the PPI categories that feed into PCE, core PCE inflation is tracking around +0.33% in May, which would push the year on year rate up to roughly 3.4%. Key PPI components to watch include healthcare services, domestic airfares and portfolio management fees, all of which have been contributing to underlying inflation momentum.

Beyond inflation, the US data calendar is lighter but still relevant. On Friday, the University of Michigan survey will be watched for signals on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. The headline sentiment index is expected to improve modestly to 48.5 from 44.8, with particular attention on whether longer term inflation expectations continue to drift higher.

Outside the US, central banks and inflation data remain the main focus, though the flow of information is more compressed. In Canada, the Bank of Canada announces its policy decision on Wednesday with no change expected. In Europe, the ECB meets on Thursday, where DB economists, and everyone else, expects a 25bp rate hike (99.9% probability according to futures), lifting the deposit rate to 2.25%, as policymakers continue to prioritise inflation control despite signs of softening growth. 

In the UK, April monthly GDP on Friday will be the key release, offering insight into whether growth regained traction early in the second quarter. In Germany, April factory orders (today), industrial production and trade (tomorrow) will give a read on manufacturing momentum and external demand. Inflation updates are also due for May in Denmark and Norway on Wednesday.

In Asia, the focus turns to China, with May trade data tomorrow followed by CPI and PPI on Wednesday. China’s gradual reflation is expected to continue, with PPI rising to around 3.0% year on year from 2.8% and CPI edging up to roughly 1.4% from 1.2%. Trade is also expected to remain firm, with export growth around 15% year on year and import growth staying elevated near 26%. In Japan, the highlight is May PPI on Wednesday. Futures are suggesting a 94% probability of a BoJ hike next week. DB's economist is more hawkish than consensus and expects a hike per quarter over the next year. You can see more on this in the World Outlook. On the corporate side, earnings highlights include Oracle and Adobe.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday June 8

• Data: US May NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations, Japan May bank lending, Economy Watchers survey, April BoP current account balance, BoP trade balance, Germany April factory orders

Tuesday June 9

• Data: US May NFIB small business optimism, existing home sales, April trade balance, wholesale trade sales, China May trade balance, Japan May M2, M3, machine tool orders, Germany April industrial production, trade balance, Canada April international merchandise trade
• Central banks: ECB’s Moulin speaks
• Auctions: US 3-yr Notes ($58bn)

Wednesday June 10

• Data: US May CPI, federal budget balance, China May CPI, PPI, Japan May PPI, Italy April industrial production, Norway May CPI, Denmark May CPI, Sweden April GDP indicator
• Central banks: BoC decision
• Earnings: Oracle
• Auctions: US 10-yr Notes (reopening, $39bn)

Thursday June 11

• Data: US May PPI, initial jobless claims, UK May RICS house price balance, Germany April current account balance, Canada April building permits
• Central banks: ECB’s decision
• Earnings: Adobe, Lennar
• Auctions: US 30-yr Bond (reopening, $22bn)

Friday June 12

• Data: US June University of Michigan survey, UK April monthly GDP, Japan April capacity utilisation, Canada Q1 capacity utilisation rate
• Central banks: ECB’s Kocher and Nagel speak

Looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data release this week is the CPI report on Wednesday. Fed officials are not expected to comment on monetary policy this week, reflecting the blackout period ahead of the June FOMC meeting. 

Monday, June 8 

• There are no major data releases scheduled. 

Tuesday, June 9 

• 08:30 AM Trade balance, April (GS -$57.0bn, consensus -$56.5bn, last -$60.3bn); We forecast that the trade deficit narrowed from $60.3bn to $57.0bn in April, roughly in line with consensus expectations. The forecast reflects declines in the goods trade deficit and the services trade surplus, with the latter driven by a sharp pullback in tourism services exports in April.
• 10:00 AM Existing home sales, May (GS +0.5%, consensus +1.0%, last +0.2%)

Wednesday, June 10 

• 08:30 AM CPI (MoM), May (GS +0.45%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.6%); Core CPI (MoM), May (GS +0.17%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.4%); CPI (YoY), May (GS +4.17%, consensus +4.2%, last +3.8%); Core CPI (YoY), May (GS +2.79%, consensus +2.9%, last +2.8%): We estimate a 0.17% increase in May core CPI (month-over-month SA), which would leave the year-over-year rate unchanged at 2.8% on a rounded basis. We expect mixed autos inflation, reflecting unchanged used car prices, a 0.1% increase in new car prices, and a 0.1% decline in the car insurance category. We forecast benign readings for the shelter categories—a 0.22% increase in the OER category and a 0.22% increase in the rent category—reflecting the continued slowdown in their underlying trend. We expect increases in the travel services categories (airfares: +2%; hotels: +0.2%), reflecting signals from alternative price data. We expect downward pressure from potential residual seasonality on the communication categories and public transportation categories outside of airfares. We estimate a 0.45% rise in headline CPI—reflecting higher food prices (+0.3%) and sharply higher energy prices (+4.2%)—which would raise the year-over-year rate to +4.17% from +3.81%. Our forecast is consistent with a 0.27% monthly increase in the core PCE price index in May. We expect a sharp increase in the financial services component—reflecting the increase in equity prices in April, which flow through to the component with a lag—to contribute to the larger increase in core PCE prices than the core CPI.

Thursday, June 11 

• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended June 6 (GS 220k, consensus 219k, last 225k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended May 30 (consensus 1,785k, last 1,777k)
• 08:30 AM PPI final demand, May (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.7%, last +1.4%); PPI ex-food and energy, May (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.5%, last +1.0%); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, May (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.6%)

Friday, June 12 

• 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, June preliminary (GS 46.0, consensus 46.5, last 44.8); University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, June preliminary (GS 3.8%, last 3.9%)

Ssource: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 09:50

Ceased Ceasefire?

By Bas van Geffen, Senior Market Strategist at Rabobank

There has been little progress in the US-Iran peace negotiations over the past weekend. In fact, it feels like the two sides have been walking backwards as the ceasefire is faltering. 

The US and Iran are still at odds over the frozen Iranian assets, which Iran wants released as part of any deal. But, yesterday, President Trump said that he will not unfreeze any amount of Iranian assets, nor lift sanctions, immediately after a deal is closed: “If they behave, if they do a good job, we start talking” about unfreezing these assets, he said.

And, if it is up to the US Treasury, there may be few assets left by the time Trump is willing to talk. The Financial Times reports that Treasury Secretary Bessent is considering using the Iranian assets to pay for the rebuilding of Gulf countries that were hit by Iranian attacks. So, we’ve now moved from “the US and Gulf countries help with the reconstruction of Iran” to “Iran pays to rebuild the Gulf countries.”

On top of that, new attacks put further pressure on the negotiations, and on the fragile ceasefire that was tacitly extended while negotiations are ongoing. US Central Command reported it took down two Iranian drones that threatened marine traffic near Hormuz, after Iran also fired missiles at Kuwait on Wednesday and at Bahrain on Friday. The US, meanwhile, has struck Iranian radar and surveillance sites.

Fighting between Israel and Hezbollah is also still ongoing. Defence Minister Katz said the country’s air force had launched a strike on a command center in one of Beirut’s suburbs, in response to Hezbollah’s continuing attacks on Israel. 

That’s another red line for Iran, which has already retaliated overnight. This remained limited to a tokenistic firing of five missiles. Nonetheless, it’s the first time since the ceasefire that Iran directly targeted Israel. 

President Trump called on Netanyahu to refrain from further retaliation. However, this morning, the Israeli Prime Minister announced that the military had struck targets in western and central Iran – including a petrochemical facility. 

This may be more about saving faces – Netanyahu wanting to project strength in the region, and Trump trying to salvage his peace deal – than an actual split between the US and Israel. Prior to the latest attacks, Iranian negotiator Qalibaf had already stated that the US’ greenlighting of Israel's strikes on Lebanon made US assets in the region a legitimate target.

Trump may be trying to salvage what there is to save, but can we really still talk of a ceasefire? The Houthis are now saying that they will close the Red Sea for maritime trade with Israel, effectively broadening the conflict. For now, Israel is singled out as the target, but the move adds to the risk of a broader blockade of the key passage – though Iran must know that that would certainly cause global backlash.

Unsurprisingly, energy futures are trading higher after a turbulent weekend. Brent futures are up almost 5%, to $97.50/barrel. This is spilling over into broader sentiment as well. Asian equities are down, led by a 4.3% decline in the Nikkei 225. The risk-off sentiment stacks on top of some unwinding of the AI trade last week, and concerns that a stronger US payroll report might force the Fed to tighten rather than ease. European equity futures indicate a loss of around 1.5% on the open. Likewise, rates markets are under pressure. 10y Bund yields are currently 3bp higher on the day. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 09:49

"And that was totally unexpected. Friends 30 years, and just like that, unexpected. It's shocking. I'm hurting... Just to see his son crying like that, and there's nothing you can do."

Forget about the box-office, the SpaceX IPO is set to be this week’s biggest blockbuster, including for some Hollywood insiders. One old guard member of the upper-upper-crust huffed of the next wave of about-to-be newly minted billionaires to us: “People are planning out their lives [based on the IPO]. There will be so many more...

The $55 million opening for “Scary Movie” is sparking a debate over how Black-oriented spoof film properties — specifically those by the Wayans brothers — are received by film reviewers versus how they ultimately perform at the box office. “Scary Movie” blew well past its $40 million tracking prediction, and yet received an anemic 25% Tomatometer score...

Despite getting blocked from performing in five European countries, Kanye West will get a hero’s welcome behind the old Iron Curtain. The rapper will perform in Georgia — the country, not the state — on Friday at Dinamo Arena in Tbilisi. Sources tell Page Six Hollywood that Georgia’s 47-year-old Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze will be on hand for the...

The Dolby Theatre hosts the Academy Awards, but at Friday’s “Summer Game Fest” the A-list stars were video game developers. At Summer Game Fest — founded by Geoff Keighley, who’s also behind The Game Awards, known as the “Oscars of Gaming” — one excited fan breezed right past Grammy-winner Zedd, instead stopping to ask “Assassin’s Creed” creator Patrice...

Seriously, this percentage off doesn't happen every day

The Mets’ starting pitchers have delivered recently with some strong outings, including Christian Scott’s performance against the Padres over the weekend. At a time when the lineup is struggling, the rotation has provided much-needed stability.

Intel Jumps On Report Google Placed 3 Million TPU Foundry Order

After last week's sharp sell-off in chip stocks, the latest attempt to keep the AI bubble inflated comes from a report by The Information, which says Google has placed an order with Intel to manufacture more than 3 million Tensor Processing Units in 2028.

Google's TPU order with Intel is a big win for the struggling chip foundry as it tries to rebuild its empire in advanced chip production and compete with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC).

The Information's Qianer Liu writes that TSMC's capacity constraints are turning into a boon for Intel as a backup manufacturer.

She noted that several major AI chip designers, including Nvidia, are turning to Intel as a potential backup manufacturer, but no orders from CEO Jensen Huang have been placed yet, as there is a testing phase to determine whether Intel's technology can be used to produce advanced AI chips.

The report from The Information sent Intel shares soaring in premarket trading, up nearly 12%. Shares had plunged into a bear market over the last month and were down about 9.5% last week.

Shares of the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) were up nearly 5% in premarket trading. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index plunged 10% on Friday, the biggest one-day drop since March 2020.

Among other notable movers: Nvidia +2.4%, AMD +2.8%, Micron +5.7%, Intel +2.5%, ARM +1.3%, U.S.-listed shares of TSMC +3.2%, Rambus +5.6%, Western Digital +4.3%, Marvell +8.7%, Microchip +2.9%, SanDisk +4.2%, Super Micro +5.8%, and Dell +1.5%.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 09:35

Dad deserves a self-care moment, too.

According to a video shared online, the racecar driver held his second-place trophy on the podium as the "Kardashians" star recorded on her phone from below.

According to a video shared online, the racecar driver held his second-place trophy on the podium as the "Kardashians" star recorded on her phone from below.

Love Island USA just sent home its first Islander of Season 8.

“Virtual Reali-Tea” co-hosts Danny Murphy and Evan Real are recapping “The Real Housewives of Rhode Island” season 1, episode 11. Rosie Woods DiMare informs Rulla Nehme Pontarelli about the alleged video of her husband, Brian, cheating with his mistress. Liz McGraw apologizes to Alicia Carmody. Check out the full recap now! “Real Housewives of Rhode...

“Virtual Reali-Tea” co-hosts Danny Murphy and Evan Real are recapping “The Real Housewives of Rhode Island” season 1, episode 11. Rosie Woods DiMare informs Rulla Nehme Pontarelli about the alleged video of her husband, Brian, cheating with his mistress. Liz McGraw apologizes to Alicia Carmody. Check out the full recap now! “Real Housewives of Rhode...

"I turned around to see who's doing this, who's grabbing me. And yeah, it was a shark."

Lithgow took home his third Tony Award and delivered a beautiful speech about his career.

Lithgow took home his third Tony Award and delivered a beautiful speech about his career.