President Trump on Thursday posted to Truth Social a New York Post article which was first published over two weeks ago, on May 1st, with the headline "Here's how to crush Tehran in three moves."
Trump's new social media post, issued without additional comment, comes just after news of Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei having drawn a hard line in the sand, ordering that Iran's stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% remain strictly inside Iranian territory. So now the world awaits what's next at a moment the White House has renewed threats of massive military strikes if Iran doesn't quickly come to the table and conform.
The NY Post article had straight-faced and without a hint of intended irony proclaimed: "President Trump has the upper hand." That statement was issued on day 63 of Trump's Iran war. Today is day 83.
What did the interim look like as the world's most powerful military force has been unable to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, amid constant threats to take new, bigger military action - but which never actually materializes (at least not yet) no matter how many times the Iranians reject Washington's terms?
The below timeline and outline, stretching from last week into this one, basically illustrates the weekly Trump pattern that's been on display going back many weeks at this point:
This is what 'winning' looks like according to the NY Post, apparently. The publication also feels itself in a position to give 'advice' and guidance to the White House on executing a war. "His best path forward is to pursue three lines of effort in parallel," author Richard Goldberg (of Foundation for Defense of Democracies) wrote. It must be remembered that very recently a former senior official from FDD Action, the think tank's lobbying arm, joined Trump's Iran negotiating team - his name is Nick Stewart.
Here are the three:
...if only simply ordering a military "path through" was that easy!
NurPhoto via Getty Images"You might call the latter Operation Epic Passage — a combined naval and air mission of self-defense that offers escort to tankers and restores freedom of navigation, all while making clear to Tehran the devastating consequences of breaking cease-fire," Goldberg, who openly boasts of his close ties to the Israeli government, also wrote. He further offered the mission name of "Blockade Plus".
After the opening days and weeks of Operation Epic Fury, when it became clear that the large-scale US and Israeli bombardment would not produced regime change in Iran, pundits widely questioned whether the Trump White House actually had a plan, or long-term strategic vision for the military mission.
And now, after more than 80 days in, the public gets Trump posting a NY Post article by a hawkish FDD writer, which seems more focused merely on ways to mitigate the blowback and 'make the best' of a failed regime change operation, in the wake of the administration's constantly evolving stated goals.
Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 15:50Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,
To say that the world is in turmoil to an extent not seen since the 1960s is an understatement.
The war in Ukraine is now in its fifth year. The war in Iran continues with no end in sight, despite Trump’s optimistic talk. NATO may be nearing the break-up stage as Trump pulls U.S. troops out of Germany.
Energy prices are soaring, inflation has accelerated sharply again, consumer confidence has fallen sharply, debt is at an all-time high and supply chains are breaking down.
Yet the major U.S. stock indices are at or near all-time highs.
What accounts for record stock prices amid almost unprecedented turmoil?
There are a number of key factors supporting stocks. The most obvious is the AI frenzy. This has two aspects. The first is that AI applications can improve productivity. The second is that the build-out of data centers with the most advanced semiconductors has led to a $1 trillion capital investment tsunami as Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic and other AI providers build their server farms.
The next factor is related to the first and is often called the picks-and-shovels trade. The idea is that those who benefit in a gold rush are not the gold miners but the merchants who sell tools, clothes, supplies and other goods the miners need.
In the AI gold rush, the winners are electricity suppliers, builders, hardware manufacturers (semiconductors and servers) and small towns where the server farms are located. These suppliers will do well today whether AI lives up to its promise or not.
Passive AggressionAnother major factor is passive investing. An enormous amount of U.S. wealth is held in 401(k)s, IRAs and assets under management by wealth managers.
Relatively few of the account holders (or, for that matter, wealth managers) really understand active stock investing or risk management. Instead, they buy index funds, ETFs or other equity basket products that track the stock market itself or a specified segment.
When money is put into these index funds, the manager buys the stocks in the index. That buying pushes stock prices higher. That attracts more money, more buying and more gains in a positive feedback loop that drives stocks even higher. No Ph.D. is required. You just buy the index, sit back and enjoy the ride.
FOMO and TINATwo other factors related to the passive investing feedback loop are fear of missing out (FOMO) and the idea that there is no alternative (TINA). It’s difficult to show up at a cocktail party or the country club when all of your friends are touting their stock gains and you’re not in the market.
It’s also difficult to put money in 4% cash equivalents or assets like gold when stocks seem set to deliver 10% returns as far as the eye can see.
FOMO and TINA have nothing to do with fundamental stock analysis. But they are real and powerful drivers of human behavior.
It’s not all fairy dust, however. There are actual fundamental drivers behind stock gains. Corporate profits are coming in strong (despite some high-profile missed estimates). U.S. energy self-sufficiency will keep the lights on in the U.S. and help prevent 1970s-style gas lines — even if we are not immune to the impact of higher prices.
That’s the argument for higher stock prices despite global problems. What could possibly go wrong?
Unrecognized RisksThe greatest threat to higher stock prices is that the market has not fully discounted the impact of the war in Iran and the unprecedented disruption in the supply of oil, liquid natural gas, nitrates for fertilizer, helium, sulphur, aluminum and other critical inputs.
The reality of these shortages has not hit home (with the exception of higher prices for gasoline and oil), but that does not mean the coast is clear.
An enormous amount of oil supply was already on vessels that left the Strait of Hormuz before the war began. That “floating supply chain” took weeks to be delivered to end users. That process has now been completed; the last deliveries have been made. There is nothing else on the way.
Major manufacturing nations like South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and China are now using up reserves. These may last another month or so. The critical point at which reserves are gone, no resupply is on the way and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed grows nearer by the day.
Even if the strait reopens tomorrow, the current shortages will raise prices, disrupt supply chains and possibly lead to a global recession. Markets seem to be ignoring this possibility in favor of a narrative that says the strait will reopen soon and all will be well.
Great Expectations (for AI)Eventually, it may also occur to markets that AI is not producing any revenue. It’s consuming $1 trillion in capital and promising untold riches, but those riches have yet to materialize. AI is a powerful technology and it’s here to stay. But that does not mean it will be particularly profitable. It may even hurt growth if hundreds of thousands of skilled workers are laid off.
There are serious reasons to believe that AI will not be that productive at all. Output errors (called “slop”) not only cast doubt on the reliability of AI, but are also populating the internet, which AI itself uses as a training set for new applications.
More slop in the training set means even less reliable output than earlier versions. The dream of superintelligence (artificial general intelligence, AGI) is out of reach because of the inability of engineers to code abductive logic.
If the AI bubble bursts (which I expect), it will not only hurt the Mag 7 stocks but also the picks-and-shovels plays around it.
The Private Credit CanaryA separate trigger for a market meltdown is the crisis in private credit. Funds sponsored by top managers like Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, KKR, Morgan Stanley and others are severely limiting investor withdrawals.
Complicating matters further, if fund managers try to sell assets quickly, there may be very few buyers unless the seller agrees to slash the price dramatically — sometimes by half or more compared with the stated “book value.”
Supporters of private credit say that this private market is only worth about $4 trillion and that even 20% write-offs will not jeopardize the system. But this calculation ignores the impact of leverage and the effects of contagion. Losses in private credit can trigger runs on mid-tier banks, which then spread to funds that hold those mid-tier bank stocks and so on.
The Dark Side of PassiveBut the greatest threat to the stock market may be the dominance of passive investing.
The same buying dynamic that drives stock prices higher can work in reverse. A market drawdown can cause investors to sell their index funds. This causes fund managers to sell the underlying stocks, which takes down the indices, causing more selling by investors and so on.
While passive investing can push markets higher gradually, it can also drive them lower with startling speed and violence.
What’s an investor to do? The positive story for stocks is real, but the downside potential is equally real. The solution is to hedge by diversifying your portfolio. Keep some stocks, but also maintain a slice of cash, a slice of gold and medium-term U.S. Treasury notes.
Gold is the everything hedge. Treasury notes are secure and will rally when the recession goes into high gear. Cash will give you the option to go shopping for bargains when everyone else is dumping stocks.
TINA and FOMO are not your friends. Diversification is.
Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 15:40