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KOSPI, Samsung Soar After 11th-Hour Union Deal Averts Chip Strike; Workers Eye $340k Bonuses

South Korea's benchmark KOSPI jumped overnight after Samsung Electronics reached a tentative wage-and-bonus agreement with its main labor union, neutralizing the immediate risk of a paralyzing strike at the world's largest memory-chip producer.

The wage-and-bonus deal removes a major supply-chain threat in an already tight memory market, where AI data center buildouts have driven surging demand, soaring prices, and heightened procurement risk across global semiconductor supply chains.

Samsung Electronics' shares surged after it clinched an 11th-hour deal with its South Korean union to avert a strike, although the terms — which included bonuses of around $416,000 for some workers — gave rise to some concern https://t.co/azFdL0hten pic.twitter.com/1q5naanI5e

— Reuters (@Reuters) May 21, 2026

Here are the key points of the Samsung-union deal reached in the 11th hour of negotiations:

• Samsung will introduce a new 10-year performance bonus system for its semiconductor division.

• Plan links worker bonuses to profitability, with ambitious profit targets of 200 trillion won annually from 2026-28 and 100 trillion won annually from 2029-35.

• Bonus pool will be funded by 10.5% of performance and paid in stock after tax.

• Employees can sell 1/3 of the shares immediately, while the rest must be held for up to 2 years.

• Samsung also agreed to an average wage increase of 6.2%, improved child support payments, and expanded housing loans.

Based on Bloomberg calculations, Samsung's 78,000 semiconductor workers could receive an average bonus of about 513 million won, or $340,000, depending on final profit levels and individual allocation. That would be more than triple the company's average employee pay of 158 million won in 2025.

Local outlet Yonhap estimates suggest workers in the memory division could receive even larger payouts, potentially around 600 million won per person, though the company does not disclose exact staffing levels by chip segment.

Samsung's union told workers they will be able to vote on the proposed 2026 wage and bonus agreement on Saturday morning.

Putting the wage deal to a vote averted a massive general strike at Samsung today, leading to optimism in the markets.

"HK shares traded directionally lower today, with optimism resurging in memory-heavy markets. Samsung's deal with the labor union brought fresh optimism with Kospi jumping by +8%, and understandably fueling some rotation out of HK/China," Goldman analyst Shubham Ghosh told clients.

Korea's Kospi closes up 8.42%, fourth biggest one-day jump on record. The Index has had nine 5%+ moves just in 2026 pic.twitter.com/YeejMyyOEG

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 21, 2026

KOSPI

Samsung

Barclays analyst Bumki Son noted, "As Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are now competing for global talents, competitive compensation packages are well warranted."

Earlier this month, the American Chamber of Commerce in Korea warned, "There are mounting concerns that any significant production disruptions or operational uncertainty at Samsung Electronics could place additional strain on the global memory semiconductor market, potentially worsening supply bottlenecks, price volatility, procurement uncertainty, and broader supply chain instability."

All eyes are on the union vote this weekend that extends into next week.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 06:55

The granddaughter of Benito Mussolini who once proclaimed she was proud to be a fascist has landed a six-figure payout after she won Italy's version of “Celebrity Big Brother.”

The Islanders want salary-cap flexibility, they don’t want to move any of their top-tier prospects or key veterans and they want to level up into being a Cup contender.

Residents Of UK Town Forced To Form 'Vigilante' Security Team To Protect Women And Kids From Migrants

Authored by Steve Watson via modernity.news,

Residents of a quiet East Sussex town have been left with no choice but to patrol their own streets after the leftist Labour government dumped hundreds of unvetted male migrants into a former army camp on their doorstep.

Crowborough, a small community of around 20,000 people, is now home to a volunteer security force called Crowborough Aware. With 81 vetted locals stepping up, the group is conducting regular patrols to deter trouble and keep women and children safe.

This is the direct result of years of open borders policies that have seen tiny, peaceful towns turned into testing grounds for mass migration.

Meanwhile in Crowborough, UK

“6 Migrants surrounded a member of the public”

81 Local Volunteers have formed their own Community Security Team – some are calling them vigilantes.

Why?

Because the treasonous UK Government have just moved over 500 unknown military age… pic.twitter.com/enfoJE32L9

— Concerned Citizen (@BGatesIsaPyscho) May 18, 2026

The breaking point came when six migrants surrounded a member of the public. That incident pushed locals into action.

The post continues, “Some are calling them vigilantes. Why? “Because the treasonous UK Government have just moved over 500 unknown military age fighting Men into their small town & they are trying to prevent the horrific headlines that are seen daily in every corner of the country from happening there.”

A GB News reporter spoke directly to members of the new patrol group. One volunteer stated clearly: “We are a visible presence to provide safety and security. We are a deterrent.”

The group is not hunting trouble—they are preventing it in a town the government abandoned.

This is Britain in 2026: a small town of 20,000 forced to form a patrol group to protect women and children from hundreds of illegal migrants the government planted there as it abandoned British people to fend for themselves.

The town’s residents have been orderly protesting for months, describing themselves as “petrified,” installing extra security and questioning why their community—historically used to train British soldiers—was being repurposed without consultation.

A local woman named Lucy called into a radio show and encapsulated the mood: “I just know that a load of women and young girls are walking around even in the day with alarms. They’ve taken self-defence classes… It’s scaring all women.”

Instead of addressing those legitimate safety concerns, some local officials doubled down on absurdity. In February, Green Party councillor Anne Cross announced she was taking her young grandchildren to hand-deliver handmade Valentine’s cards to the adult male migrants at the camp.

“There is nothing like getting to know people and hearing their stories in order to dispel fear,” she claimed, insisting there was “no evidence children or women are at a higher risk from people seeking asylum”

The Home Office has moved around 350 single adult male asylum seekers into the Crowborough Training Camp since January, with capacity for more. Migrants can leave the site, creating what locals call a “village within a village.” Police have increased presence following incidents, but residents say it is not enough.

The fact that their community feels the need to do this, is a damning indictment into this Govt’s failing policy to deal with the illegal immigration crisis. Time and again it’s been proven that some of those migrants have criminal backgrounds, and they have been allowed to roam…

— Greg Johnson (@GregJ1966) May 18, 2026

What a sad reflection of the times.

People feel so unsafe in their communities, that they are compelled to give up their own time and patrol the streets.

— Mrs Slocombe (@Maidinamerica3) May 18, 2026

The government should be very worried that this is happening in a nice, middle class town. The government must take notice and do something to stop the situation getting worse. It's a sign of how vile the British establishment is that the working class communities have been…

— HelCol2025 (@HelCol2025) May 18, 2026

When the Government won’t protect its citizens, they will be forced to protect themselves. The inevitable result is vigilantism…..

— Susan Dooley (@SDooley57592) May 19, 2026

It's not "vigilanteism", it's self-defence. This Labour government is setting these savages on us. It is a criminal act of war, and dereliction of duty of care. Us citizens have a right to defend ourselves if the government refuses!!!

— Winston Smith (@WinstonSmi17587) May 18, 2026

The government cares more about housing 500 fighting-age migrants than its own people.
Two-tier Britain in full effect.

— True Europa (@TrueEuropa) May 18, 2026

Why does the government keep targeting small, 95% white villages and towns like Crowborough for these placements?

It is almost as if the goal is to engineer the maximum possible cultural upheaval in the shortest time.

Peaceful communities with low crime and strong social cohesion are suddenly expected to absorb hundreds of unknown military-age men from vastly different backgrounds, with no meaningful vetting or integration plan.

The pattern repeats across the country—tiny places with limited resources and policing get flooded while officials lecture residents about “misinformation” and “fear.” The result is exactly what we see now: locals forced to organise their own security.

Crowborough Aware’s patrols are a visible sign that British communities are no longer waiting for Westminster to wake up. They are acting to protect their own.

The government’s response—more accommodation sites, more dismissals of local concerns—only confirms what more people are realising: the people must look after themselves when the state refuses to do its most basic job.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 06:30

Ben Walker and Ditto Transcripts have changed the way they provide transcription services by using only human transcriptionists who are trained in medical and legal transcription.

No longer centered on horoscopes or predictions, Hint App uses astrology to transform today’s understanding of emotional literacy.

It is not just parents who want — or need — the diagnoses for their children. Schools do too, and it's an indictment of a broken system.

"Progressive" activists are proud to stop a researcher from writing about what he knows — and lefty Tom Steyer funded their efforts.

The results of the global pop competition remind us that music is louder than catcalls — and that social-media uproar is not real life.

"I sincerely doubt he is going to heaven. He is lucky he is not already in hell."

New York City was pummeled with heavy rain and thunderstorms, with drivers left stranded thanks to the flash floods.

SpaceX Files For Nasdaq IPO Under Symbol SPCX

Update (1650ET): As expected, SpaceX filed its S1.

The stock is expected to list on Nasdaq and Nasdaq Texas under the ticker “SPCX.”

No specific share count, price range, or total offering size is finalized yet (placeholders are used).

But, with expectations of a $1.5 trillion market cap, that means SPCX will trade at a 77x LTM Revenue multiple!

Mission and Overview

• SpaceX's mission is to make life multiplanetary, advance scientific understanding of the universe, and extend consciousness to the stars. It positions itself as a vertically integrated builder across Space, Connectivity (Starlink), and AI (via xAI acquisition).

• The company has revolutionized space access with reusable rockets (Falcon family, Starship development), built the world's largest LEO satellite constellation for broadband, and is scaling AI compute and frontier models (Grok) with real-time data from X.

Key Corporate Details

• Dual-class structure: Class A (1 vote/share) and Class B (10 votes/share). Elon Musk (founder, CEO, CTO, Chairman) will retain dominant voting control post-IPO (majority of the board via Class B and overall voting power), making SpaceX a “controlled company” under Nasdaq rules.

• Basis of presentation: Financials include retrospective recasts for the xAI acquisition (Feb 2026) and X Holdings (via xAI, 2025), plus a 5-for-1 stock split (May 2026).

• Underwriters: Led by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, BofA, Citigroup, J.P. Morgan, and others.

Consolidated Financial Highlights (preliminary/selected):

• Q1 2026: Revenue $4.69B, operating loss $1.94B, Adjusted EBITDA $1.13B.

• FY 2025: Revenue $18.67B, operating loss $2.59B, Adjusted EBITDA $6.58B.

• Heavy capex (especially AI) and Starship R&D; Starlink (Connectivity) is the current profit engine.

Business Segments (as of/through Q1 2026 and FY 2025)

Space (launches, Dragon, Starship development):

• Dominant global launch provider (>80% of mass-to-orbit in recent years, >99% Falcon success rate).

• Key vehicles: Falcon 9 (reusable, ~23t to LEO), Falcon Heavy (~64t), Dragon (cargo/crew to ISS), Starship (in testing, targeting full reusability and massive scale).

• Revenue: $619M (Q1 2026), $4.1B (2025). Still investing heavily in R&D/Starship.

Connectivity (Starlink):

• ~9,600 broadband/mobile satellites in LEO (~10.3M subscribers across 164 countries/territories as of Mar 31, 2026).

• High-speed, low-latency broadband (median ~225 Mbps peak for residential); expanding enterprise, government, maritime/aviation, and satellite-to-mobile (direct-to-phone, ~650 dedicated satellites, ~7.4M devices in ~30 countries).

• Strong growth: Revenue $3.26B (Q1 2026), $11.4B (2025, +~50% YoY); highly profitable at segment level.

AI (xAI/Grok/X integration):

• Gigawatt-scale terrestrial AI training clusters (e.g., COLOSSUS); plans for orbital AI compute satellites (using solar power, starting ~2028).

• Grok frontier models (truth-seeking, strong scientific reasoning benchmarks); integrated with X (~1.3B supported accounts, 550M MAUs, hundreds of millions of daily posts).

• Revenue $818M (Q1 2026), $3.2B (2025), but heavy losses due to compute/infrastructure investments.

Here's the financials visualized (xAI is represented by the green slabs)...

Free cash flow struggling under the weight of that giant green slabs...

So, xAI is the giant money suck while Starlink keeps the engine running (but despite breaking out in 2025, Starlink user growth seems to be slowing a little):

Finally, one thing that stood out was that Anthropic is paying xAI $1.25BN per month (through May 2029) to utilize 'Colossus' for AI compute.

Musk took to X to explain further his vision for this segment:

As the recently expanded partnership with Anthropic demonstrates, SpaceX is offering AI compute as a service at significant scale.

We are in discussions with other companies to do the same. 

Over time, especially with orbital data centers, we expect to serve AI at extremely high scale.

If you build it (in space), they will come?

Read the full 270-page S1 here...

*  *  *

Ahead of Thursday's scheduled launch of SpaceX's Starship V3 rocket, there are indications that Elon Musk's rocket and AI company could release its IPO filing as soon as this afternoon, giving investors, analysts, and competitors a rare look inside the finances and ownership structure of Musk's space empire.

Starship and Super Heavy V3 moved to the pad at Starbase for final testing and preparations for launch pic.twitter.com/vU21Owvoif

— SpaceX (@SpaceX) May 19, 2026

On Tuesday, The Wall Street Journal reported that Goldman Sachs secured the lead-left role on SpaceX's upcoming IPO, positioning it as the top banker on what could become one of the largest public offerings in history.

SpaceX is expected to seek a valuation of up to $2 trillion, raising an estimated $75 billion to help fuel its AI and Starship rocket-launch ambitions after merging with xAI and pursuing plans for orbital data centers.

The company confidentially filed IPO documents with the SEC in early April, and its public S-1 filing is expected at any moment today.

Last Friday, Reuters reported that the IPO is set for pricing on June 11, followed by a June 12 debut.

The ticker "SPCX" leads the Polymarket bet, "What will SpaceX's public ticker be?" at 91% by lunchtime in New York.

//--> //--> Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?
Yes 91% · No 9%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

Elon Musk virtually attended a summit in Tel Aviv on Monday, where he said, "We've got to get the SpaceX IPO stuff going here pretty soon." Those comments put a bid into AST SpaceMobile, EchoStar, and Rocket Lab.

Bloomberg's Eric Johnson outlined what exactly to look for when the S1 drops:

• The company, known formally as Space Exploration Technologies Corp., is expected to pick Nasdaq as its listing venue, which would set it up for potential inclusion in the Nasdaq 100.

• The IPO filing could include key financial details like revenue and net income across its launch, Starlink and artificial intelligence businesses, as well as capital spending on key programs like its colossal Starship rocket.

• key programs like its colossal Starship rocket * SpaceX's filing is set to reveal the hierarchy of the banks running the deal. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley are the lead firms, with Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. also working on the transaction, people familiar with the matter have said.

• SpaceX will list its largest shareholders, including Musk himself and Alphabet Inc.'s Google; its investors also include Valor Equity Partners, Sequoia and Andreessen Horowitz.

• We should find out how voting control of the company will be set up. SpaceX is considering a dual-class share structure, people with knowledge of the plans have said, which could allow Musk to maintain control of the company even with a minority stake.

• The filing likely won't include information on the price range per share, number of shares offered, shares outstanding or precise shareholdings. Those usually come at the start of formal marketing, which could be as early as June 4, ahead of pricing as soon as June 11, Bloomberg News reported.

The Information's Cory Weinberg published five charts making sense of the IPO numbers: 

1. SpaceX is expected to file its S-1 publicly as soon as tomorrow.

We've reviewed parts of the draft prospectus and tried to make sense of the numbers. Here are 5 charts that explain the company before the largest IPO in history goes live.

2. The company has accumulated $37 billion in losses over its 24-year history — larger than what the next 10 major loss-making tech IPOs *combined* had to disclose at their offerings.

3. SpaceX will tell investors it has $6.6 billion in 'adjusted' profit last year. Under standard accounting, it lost $4.9 billion. 

That gap between headline profit and actual profit is larger than at CoreWeave, Viasat, or Tesla.

4. Starlink dominates. The satellite internet business generated $11.4 billion in revenue last year — more than 7 leading publicly traded satellite communications operators combined.

5. The Space segment — SpaceX's launch business — grew only 8% last year. That's because about three-quarters of Falcon 9 launches were for internal Starlink missions rather than outside customers.

6. The AI segment (X plus xAI) grew 23% last year, compared to over 1,000% for Anthropic and nearly 300% for OpenAI. xAI was slowest-growing of the major AI labs.

View Weinberg's report here. 

With SpaceX set to be the first out of the gates among the three giant tech IPOs, we can't help but wonder how well the record high market will absorb such supply (and what will be sold to make room for it)...

Shares of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were up around 4% during the lunch hour. These banks are expected to be the lead managers on the IPO.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 05:54

More than 60% of all grades awarded to undergraduates in recent years were in the A range.

The Growing Burden Of Old-Age Dependency

Many countries around the world are facing a rapidly rising old-age dependency ratio, according to projections published in the UN’s World Population Prospects 2024.

As Statista's Anna Fleck details below, this indicator measures the number of people aged 65 and older relative to the working-age population (between 15 and 64 years old).

South Korea is expected to experience a particularly steep increase, with the number of people aged 65 and over per 100 working-age adults projected to jump from 31.2 in 2026 to 75.6 by 2050.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Italy is also forecast to see a dramatic rise, climbing from 40.7 to 70.4. These figures underscore the accelerating pace of global population ageing, which will result in a growing economic burden on shrinking workforces.

Established industrial economies such as the United States are projected to age more gradually, with the old-age dependency ratio rising from 29.3 to 37.9 over the same period.

By comparison, China is expected to undergo a particularly rapid demographic shift, with its ratio more than doubling from 21.6 to 52.3.

India and several younger emerging economies are forecast to remain comparatively youthful despite moderate increases.

These UN projections are based on certain trends in birth rates, life expectancy and migration.

If these trends continue, ageing populations are likely to put increasing pressure on labor markets, pension systems and public finances, requiring governments to adapt their policies to older populations.

It's important to note that this data does not account for the fact that many people over the age of 65 are still working, and younger people will not all be working.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 05:45

The chip giant reported more stellar results but its shares fell after-hours as investors wonder if it can keep up its pace of growth amid greater competition.

Tense Trump-Netanyahu Call As US Presses Iran To 'Sign The Document' - But Israel Wants Military Greenlight Summary

• Axios: "Trump continues to say he thinks a deal can be reached, but that he's ready to resume the war if it isn't."

• US Marines board Iranian-flagged tanker in the Gulf of Oman, as it was accused of attempting to violate the US naval blockade.

• Iran's parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf says that Tehran sees signs that the United States is seeking to restart the war

• Oil tumbles after Pakistan again touts final deal draft text imminent, followed by Trump claiming US in 'final stages' of peace talks with Iran, though Tehran hasn't budged on nuclear issue.

• Iran's IRGC Navy says 26 vessels, including oil tankers, container ships and other commercial vessels, transited in the prior 24 hours "in coordination" with Iranian authorities.

//--> //--> //--> Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Yes 35% · No 66%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Iran Issues its Strait Passage Protocol

The following was issued from the Official Account of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority: 

The Islamic Republic of Iran has defined the boundaries of the Strait of Hormuz management supervision area as follows: "The line connecting Kuh Mobarak in Iran and the south of Fujairah in the UAE in the east of the strait to the line connecting the end of Qeshm Island in Iran and Umm al-Qaiwain in the UAE in the west of the strait."

The statement adds: "Frequencies in this range for passing through the Strait of Hormuz require coordination with the Persian Gulf Waterway Management and a permit from this entity."

Trump: 'Sign the Document' for Face War's Resumption

Trump and Netanyahu had a reported tense phone call related to ongoing Iran talks, and a proposed peace deal on the table. Netanyahu is said to be seeking a greenlight for renewed military action against Tehran, at a moment the Iranians have not compromised on the nuclear issue.

Per fresh reporting in Axios: "Trump continues to say he thinks a deal can be reached, but that he's ready to resume the war if it isn't":

• "The only question is do we go and finish it up or are they gonna be signing a document. Let's see what happens," he said on Wednesday at the Coast Guard Academy.
• Trump also said Netanyahu "will do whatever I want him to do" on Iran, though he also said they had a good relationship. The two leaders have had temporary disagreements on Iran before but have remained closely coordinated throughout the war.
• Iran has confirmed it's reviewing an updated proposal, but has not yet shown any signs of flexibility.

The same report says of Israel's position that "Netanyahu is highly skeptical about the negotiations and wants to resume the war to further degrade Iran's military capabilities and weaken the regime by destroying its critical infrastructure."

US Marines Board Iran-Flagged Tanker

The Pentagon has announced that US Marines have boarded another Iranian-flagged tanker, this time in the Gulf of Oman. It had been accused of attempting to violate the US naval blockade, after which it was boarded.

But, as CENTCOM says, "American forces released the vessel after searching and directing the ship’s crew to alter course." This as Iran's IRGC Navy says 26 vessels, including oil tankers, container ships and other commercial vessels, transited in the prior 24 hours "in coordination" with Iranian authorities (per state news).

Earlier today in the Gulf of Oman, U.S. Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit boarded M/T Celestial Sea, an Iranian-flagged commercial oil tanker suspected of attempting to violate the U.S. blockade by transiting toward an Iranian port. American forces released the… pic.twitter.com/1AVT0MudKY

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) May 20, 2026 Iran Confirms Ongoing Exchange of Messages with US

Some latest from Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: "Exchange of messages between Iranian and American sides continues based on the text of Iran's 14-point resolution." And more:

• Iran's focus is on ending the war and fulfilling Iran's clear demands
• The presence of the Pakistani Interior Minister is to facilitate the exchange of messages.
• Baqaei: We are exchanging messages with suspicion and good intentions
• Talking about ultimatums and deadlines regarding Iran is ridiculous.
• Iran also says US has to prove its goodwill and stop "piracy" against Iranian ships

Ghalibaf: US Seeking To 'Start A New War'

Iran's parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf says that Tehran sees signs that the United States is seeking to restart the war and still hopes the Islamic Republic will surrender:

"The enemy’s movements, both overt and clandestine, show that despite economic and political pressure, it has not abandoned its military objectives and is seeking to start a new war," Ghalibaf said in an audio message carried by Iranian media.

"Close monitoring of the situation in the United States reinforces the possibility that they still hope for the surrender of the Iranian nation," he adds.

Trump has given Iran 'days' - or also till the start of next week to come back to the table; however, on Wednesday he's actually touting a 'final' deal draft is near, despite Iran still not budging on the nuclear issue.

Oil Plunges Further on Trump Comment

Again, possibly just more jawboning, but oil's Wednesday morning plunge deepened upon Trump touting 'final stages' of talks with Iran... all of this as usually looking very premature...

• TRUMP SAYS US IN 'FINAL STAGES' OF TALKS WITH IRAN: POOL REPORT
• TRUMP SAYS 'WE'LL SEE WHAT HAPPENS' W/ IRAN: POOL REPORT
• TRUMP: DO WE FINISH IRAN UP OR WILL THEY SIGN, LET'S SEE
• TRUMP: SEEING IN IRAN THAT US IS RESPECTED

Another Likely Premature 'Final' Peace Draft Headline, Oil Tumbles

Crude prices tumbled on a regional Al Hadath headline suggesting the "achievement of a final draft" of what will be Iran's latest peace proposal, though the recent pattern of this has shown little will likely come of it with Washington, amid ongoing apparent zero sum demands from each warring side. 

• Pakistani Army Chief may visit Iran tomorrow to announce achievement of final draft of agreement text. Next round of negotiations will be held in Islamabad after Hajj season: Al Hadath  
• Event Sources: If the Pakistani Army Chief does not head to Iran, the achievement of the final agreement formula may be announced within hours

More per Newsquawk...

[MARKET UPDATE] Brent falls in excess of USD 3/bbl, WTI slips below USD 100/bbl, Equities bid and USD hit on reports the Pakistani Army Chief may visit Iran tomorrow to announce achievement of final draft of agreement text

Pakistani Army Chief may visit Iran tomorrow to announce achievement of final draft of agreement text; The next round of negotiations will be held in Islamabad after the Hajj season (25th to 30th May), Al Hadath reports

• Sources say if Pakistani Army Chief does not head to Iran, the achievement of the final agreement formula may be announced within hours.
• Work is underway in earnest to put the finishing touches on the text of an agreement between Washington and Tehran.

BUT...

Al Arabiya sources: The US has informed Pakistan that it will not offer concessions to Iran on the nuclear demands and the Strait of Hormuz https://t.co/Av0QIGjyvL

— Faytuks News (@Faytuks) May 20, 2026 IRGC Warns: Next Conflict Round Could Unleash 'War Beyond the Region'

Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, has summed up where things stand: "Since the ceasefire came into effect, both Washington and Tehran appear to be operating under the illusion that time is on their side," he said. "Each seems to believe that the blockade and counter-blockade in the Strait of Hormuz impose greater costs on the other, while offering a breathing space to regroup for a possible resumption of hostilities," Vaez told Al Jazeera.

On Wednesday Iran's Revolutionary Guards issued a fresh warning amid this ongoing standoff, warning that the Middle East war will extend beyond the region if the United States and Israel resume their attacks.

via Shutterstock

"If the aggression against Iran is repeated, the promised regional war will this time spread far beyond the region, and our devastating blows will crush you," the IRGC say in the statement published to their website Sepah News.

The warring sides are no closer to getting back to the negotiating table, after President Trump has given just a few 'days' to comply on the nuclear issue, which so far Tehran has not budged on.

But in the meantime Iran still sees American guarantees as "insufficient" regarding a renewed war, Al Arabiya reports Wednesday. The Supreme Leader, who is still in hiding and believed to be recovering from serious injuries that resulted from prior airstrikes, has issued a fresh written message to the public:

Mojtaba Khamenei has commemorated the second anniversary of the death of former President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash, saying the country is putting up a “unique historical resistance against two global terrorist armies” in Israel and the US, the Fars News Agency reports. 

In another written statement, Khamenei said the war was making the burden on officials “heavier than before”, adding that he was grateful for the “unity of the nation”.

Iran: 26 Vessels Transit Strait in last 24-Hours Under its Protocol

In the Strait of Hormuz, there's been a continued trickle of tankers making it through, reportedly after Beijing asked:

Two Chinese tankers laden with oil exited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, shipping data showed, brightening hopes that the US-Israeli conflict with Iran may soon be ​resolved after positive comments from the US president and his deputy.

President Donald Trump said on Tuesday the war would be over “very quickly” while Vice President JD Vance talked up progress in talks with Tehran about an agreement to end hostilities.

This as Iran's IRGC Navy says 26 vessels, including oil tankers, container ships and other commercial vessels, transited in the prior 24 hours "in coordination" with Iranian authorities (per SNN).

🚨 Two Chinese VLCCs carrying 4 mb of Iraqi oil have crossed the Strait of Hormuz and are now heading straight for the US blockade. If they’re allowed to pass, it means Trump and Xi have quietly agreed to let it happen.

Meanwhile, 4 LNG carriers are on their way to China to… pic.twitter.com/FA2KFEniuZ

— Anas Alhajji (@anasalhajji) May 20, 2026

And reports of a South Korean tanker safely traversing at this point:

A South Korean oil tanker is currently passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the country’s top diplomat said on Wednesday, in a report from AFP.

“At this very moment, our oil tanker is passing through the Strait of Hormuz,” Foreign Minister Cho Hyun told lawmakers at the National Assembly in Seoul.

Ship-tracking site MarineTraffic showed the South Korea-flagged tanker Universal Winner on the eastern side of the Strait of Hormuz near the entrance to the Gulf of Oman, bound for the southeastern South Korean city of Ulsan after departing Kuwait’s Mina Al-Ahmadi port.

'Big Hit' Preparation Underway?

As a reminder of prior Trump threats this week, and the typically vague timetable, the president on Tuesday renewed warnings that he could imminently resume bombing Iran, declaring the country will face a "big hit" if it refuses to accept US demands for a deal within days.

Netanyahu and Trump held what Israel’s N12 News described as a “lengthy and dramatic” phone call overnight, amid growing speculation over a possible new strike on Iran.
Netanyahu will skip both the opening of the Knesset session and a key vote on dissolving parliament today

— Faytuks Network (@FaytuksNetwork) May 20, 2026

"Well, I mean, I’m saying two or three days, maybe Friday, Saturday, Sunday, something, maybe early next week, a limited period of time, because we can’t let them have a new nuclear weapon," Trump told reporters. Trump had the day prior said he was "holding off" on striking Iran on after requests from Gulf Arab states. Then he followed by claiming the attack was moments away from being launched. "We were all set to go… It would have been happening right now."

More Latest

More latest developments via Newsquawk:

• US intelligence assessment recently showed that US forces identified at least 10 mines in the Strait of Hormuz, according to CBS citing US officials.
• US Senate voted 50-47 to advance war powers resolution that would end US strikes on Iran unless approved by Congress.
• Iran's IRGC said that if the attack on Iran occurs again, the war will extend beyond the region, Fars News reported.
• Iranian Deputy to the President Banah said Tehran is open to negotiations within national interests, Al Mayadeen reported.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said months after the start of the war on Iran, US Congress acknowledged the loss of dozens of aircraft worth billions, and Iran's powerful Armed Forces are confirmed as the first to strike down a touted F-35, while he added that with lessons learned and the knowledge they gained, a return to war will feature many more surprises.
• Iran-Pakistan cooperation had declined/stopped over the past two weeks, Al Arabiya and Al Hadath reported citing a senior diplomatic source. A diplomatic source says Iran and Pakistan held conflicting positions on negotiation channels and the venue for talks, and says mistrust was affecting coordination between Iran and Pakistan.
• Pakistan's Interior Minister Naqvi is on route to Tehran, according to Journalist Mallick.
• "On the verge of a decision: Trump and Netanyahu held a phone conversation last night that was described as “lengthy and dramatic,” according to journalist Segal.
• Two Chinese supertankers, carrying 4mln barrels of oil, exited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, according to tracking data. It was later reported that India was preparing to send oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz following prior reports regarding the Chinese tankers.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 05:35

An illegal immigrant truck driver was arrested Tuesday after allegedly causing a deadly multi-vehicle crash in California and attempting to flee the scene, federal officials said.

The new round of storefronts spans Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan, New York, Ohio and Utah.

Dubai's Shipping Hub Status Under Pressure As Some Industry Veterans Eye Greece

Via Middle East Eye

Some shipping industry workers based in Dubai are looking to relocate from the UAE as a result of the US-Israeli war on Iran, one ship-owner and two industry sources familiar with the matter told Middle East Eye.

Western expats working in the maritime industry are eyeing the Greek capital, Athens , and Cyprus as potential alternatives to Dubai, given those countries' dominant positions in shipping and the favorable tax policies they offer the industry, the sources said.

via AFP

The search for alternatives to Dubai underscores how some expats, particularly westerners with easy access to Europe, do not expect the Gulf to return to its pre-war position anytime soon.

Around 2,000 vessels are trapped in the Gulf as a result of competing US and Iranian blockades of the waterway. But the shipping industry is experiencing a boom as a result of the war. The lockdown of vessels has compressed supply, and rates are soaring as energy corridors are rewired. 

US oil and gas exports have hit record highs as a result of the war. But the transit time from the US Gulf coast to Asia is substantially longer than the journey from the Arabian Gulf. 

Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF, which tracks the price of crude oil tanker rates, is up 240 percent since the war on Iran started. 

The industry's good fortune stands in stark contrast to the UAE's maritime sector, which has been pummeled by the blockade. 

The Gulf state turned itself into the dominant logistics hub for the Middle East, Asia and Africa. The port of Jebel Ali is one of the largest in the world, and is a major hub for transhipment, where goods are transferred from one vessel to another before their final destination.

The UAE's top export, oil, has also been cut by more than half as a result of Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz.

"It’s not so much the slowdown in business, but the unreliability of Dubai as a hub. Can you count on a flight back to London or Paris for your family during war?" the ship owner said to Middle East Eye.

'Thousands' of Dubai real estate offices to close

Dubai benefited potentially more than any other city in the world from the post-Covid boom of soaring asset prices, cryptocurrency, and remote work.

Capitalizing on its low corporate tax rate, zero income tax or capital gains tax, and smooth bureaucracy, it became a magnet for London bankers and American "finance bros". Its financial institutions have served as a haven for Sudanese militia leaders dealing in gold to Russian and Ukrainian expats fleeing war in Eastern Europe.

But very few are willing to write Dubai off the map, particularly given the UAE's deep pockets, yet there are some signs that the war has pulled a curtain over its tremendous boom years.

Arabian Business reported on Wednesday that thousands of real estate agencies in Dubai may close in the coming months due to the war. A leading property search platform said that up to 30 percent of the agencies active on its site could shutter within the next five to six months.

As with western expats, where the war is filtering out those most committed to Dubai, the real estate agencies most likely to close are smaller operators or those that focused on speculative ends of the market, such as off-plan sales.

Arabian Business cited Lewis Allsopp, the chairman and co-founder of Allsopp & Allsopp, a real estate consultancy, as saying that Dubai’s ratio of brokers to residents is close to 1,000 per 100,000. For comparison, London has around 176 brokers per 100,000 people.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 05:00

City Comptroller Mark Levine sounded the alarm about the impact AI could have on the Big Apple's tax revenue, saying there was a 50-50 shot the emerging tech sparks a recession in the five boroughs.