Aggregator

The model hasn't been happy with the "SNL" alum for "a long time," a source tells us.

Visit California, a nonprofit organization promoting California tourism, says traffic in the area has skyrocketed since the highway was reopened

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Job Is Impossible

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

Congratulations to Kevin Warsh on officially becoming the next Federal Reserve chair. Unfortunately for him, he may have just accepted the worst job in global finance at the worst possible moment.

Warsh was narrowly confirmed this week in the most partisan Fed chair vote in modern history, inheriting a central bank that has spent years under political attack while gliding straight into a macroeconomic minefield. Inflation just accelerated to a three-year high. Oil is higher amid Middle East tensions. President Trump is openly demanding lower rates. And now the bond market appears to be losing patience, pushing yields dramatically higher to end the week last week.

Friday was a perfect preview of the mess waiting for him.

On Friday, most investors spent the day staring at falling tech stocks as the S&P 500 dropped 1.24% and the Nasdaq fell 1.54%, but that wasn’t the real story. The real story was happening in Treasuries, where the 30-year yield ripped above 5.1% as investors digested hotter inflation data from earlier in the week and the growing realization that rates may need to stay higher for longer than Wall Street has been pricing in.

That’s where things get dangerous. Stocks can correct 5% and CNBC can fill airtime with “buy the dip” segments. Bond markets are different. When yields rise this fast, they tighten financial conditions everywhere at once. Mortgage rates stay elevated, corporate borrowing costs rise, commercial real estate refinancing gets uglier, and the federal government’s own interest expense starts ballooning.

And this is happening while the consumer is already showing cracks. Auto loan delinquencies are sitting near 2008 levels. Credit card delinquencies are hovering around financial crisis highs. Consumers are increasingly relying on high-interest debt just as inflation continues squeezing real wages.

That inflation problem is exactly what makes Warsh’s situation so miserable. CPI is still running at 3.8%. PPI is at 6%. Oil just moved above $100. This is not an environment where the Fed can casually ride in with emergency rate cuts or restart quantitative easing without risking another inflation wave.

Which is particularly awkward because Kevin Warsh has spent years arguing that the Fed became far too involved in financial markets and should shrink its $6.7 trillion balance sheet faster. He’s repeatedly pushed the idea that the central bank should stop acting like a permanent market backstop and return to more traditional monetary policy tools.

Very noble. Very disciplined. Very “markets need to stand on their own two feet.” And now he may be taking over just as markets are testing whether he actually means any of that.

Because it’s easy to give speeches about moral hazard when stocks are ripping higher, volatility is low, and everyone is pretending the economy is fine. It’s a little harder when the bond market starts throwing furniture around, long-term yields keep climbing, and every corner of the economy begins feeling the pressure at once.

Again, higher Treasury yields don’t just hurt speculative tech names—they ripple through everything. Housing activity slows as mortgage rates remain elevated. Corporate refinancing becomes more expensive. Commercial real estate gets squeezed even harder. Private equity exits dry up. Government interest payments balloon. Suddenly everyone from first-time homebuyers to Treasury officials starts having a very bad week.

And then there’s the stock market, which continues behaving like none of this applies to it. The Shiller P/E ratio is sitting around 42x—deep into “what could possibly go wrong?” territory. That kind of valuation only works if inflation cools quickly, rates fall, earnings remain strong, and liquidity stays abundant. In other words, it requires basically everything to go right at the exact moment a lot of things are going wrong.

That’s what makes this such a brutal setup for Warsh, as I wrote here: This Rally Ends In Panic.

🔥 50% OFF FOR LIFE: Using this coupon entitles you to 50% off an annual subscription to Fringe Finance for life: Get 50% off forever

If he lets yields continue climbing, he risks a broader market repricing, rising defaults, housing weakness, and credit stress that spills into the real economy. If he cuts rates too aggressively or restarts bond purchases, he risks pouring gasoline on inflation that is already running too hot. If he does nothing and tries to wait it out? Markets may decide for him.

That’s the problem with bond markets. They don’t care about academic framework. They don’t care about your carefully worded press conferences. And they definitely do not care about your long-term policy vision when they think inflation, deficits, and fiscal credibility are deteriorating in real time.

Just ask Liz Truss how quickly bond investors can humble policymakers.

So genuinely, good luck, Kevin. No sarcasm there. He’s walking into a non-enviable situation where inflation is sticky, consumers are weakening, stocks look euphoric, geopolitical tensions are driving oil prices higher, and the bond market may be on the verge of becoming the biggest source of instability in the entire financial system.

That’s not a soft landing, it’s a stress test disguised as a promotion. And while everyone else keeps obsessing over whether Nvidia is down 4% on a given day, Warsh should be staring directly at the Treasury marketl, because that’s where his real problems are about to begin.

--

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/16/2026 - 14:00

Elite sniper instructor Brandon Webb says many moms and dads are 'just f--king up' their kids.

Joejuan Williams is hanging up his cleats. 

Things went from tense to chaotic on Friday night in Dayton, Ohio.

Sergeant Major Mohamed Mahudhee was filmed standing shoulder-to-shoulder as the elite crew of rescuers pored over the day's rescue plan.

Standing up to this madness shouldn’t be left to marginal figures like Dov Hikind: Sooner or later, Democratic big dogs like Rep. Hakeem Jefferies and (especially) Sen. Chuck Schumer need to speak out, loud and proud.

When ET phoned home, was he using the Great Pyramid?

Scroll through to see all the best photos from the set.

Scroll through to see all the best photos from the set.

Ronda Rousey's back for Netflix’s first-ever live MMA broadcast!

But you need this one. Trust me.

50 Empty Waymos Invade Upscale Tiny Atlanta Neighborhood

With Waymo robotaxis now operating in 11 major U.S. markets, these fully autonomous Jaguar I-PACE SUVs are becoming increasingly visible to everyday folks. This wider rollout means more public encounters and more viral footage capturing robotaxis in the wild.

One such incident occurred in a northwest Atlanta neighborhood this week, where residents told local media outlet WSB-TV that more than 50 empty Waymo SUVs flooded their tiny street.

"It's almost every little cul-de-sac in our area, so I think it's a problem," one neighbor on Battleview Drive told WSB's Steve Gehlbach.

The Battleview resident said, "I think yesterday morning we had 50 cars come through between 6 and 7."

It's not just Battleview; other residents in the area say empty robotaxis have been repeatedly circling their streets in growing numbers over the past several weeks.

Residents told the local outlet that the robotaxis are not picking up passengers, raising concerns that the activity is excessive and potentially dangerous, especially for families with children nearby.

Expect more stories like this as robotaxi deployment ramps up nationwide. We have provided readers with enough context about robotaxi deployments (see here and here).

Just wait until local resistance movements, similar to data centers, begin …

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/16/2026 - 13:25

For some, the dreaded “uniboob” isn’t just a side effect of a too-tight sports bra.

"Hollywood VICE officers hit the Walk of Fame today and found a man parading exotic snakes around for tourist money," LAPD Hollywood wrote in a social media post.

Lopez was photographed exiting the Four Seasons Hotel in New York City as she headed to a special screening of her new film, "Office Romance."

Lopez was photographed exiting the Four Seasons Hotel in New York City as she headed to a special screening of her new film, "Office Romance."

Bet $20, get $200 in bonus bets using the Fanatics sportsbook promo code NYPOST for Yankees vs. Mets.

Windsor in Sonoma County passed the law in 2022 to fight climate change, but as a repercussion, it also stymies cheaper-gas retailers like Costco from setting up there.