To support current commercial nuclear operations, plus 300 GW of new nuclear capacity for a total of roughly 400 GW by 2050, all fueled domestically, the country would need to invest between $105 billion and $170 billion across the entire nuclear fuel cycle.
Is it still called a bottleneck if the entire industry is the problem?
The consulting firm McKinsey & Company used the most aspirational scenario from the Trump administration’s May 2025 executive orders as its benchmark for their recent report. That means rebuilding capacity from mining and milling through conversion, enrichment, fabrication, and even reprocessing.
It's looking more and more like the $2.7 billion award from the DOE for domestic enrichment barely scratches the surface:
These figures assume a mix of new and existing reactors, including Gen IV designs that will demand high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU).
We have documented the vulnerabilities for months. Today the United States imports about 99 percent of the raw uranium ore needed for its commercial fleet…
With milling capacity effectively nonexistent and conversion limited to a single operating facility…
And enrichment capacity covers only about one-third of domestic needs…
The gaps leave utilities exposed to geopolitical risks and price volatility, a point we highlighted when uranium spot prices pulled back earlier this year even as long-term supply deficits widened…
Uranium: the next gold pic.twitter.com/2SSjvRkdSg
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 12, 2025Uranium: the next gold pic.twitter.com/2SSjvRkdSg
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 12, 2025 ">accelerating, however. We reported on the DOE’s Nuclear Fuel Cycle Defense Production Act Consortium, which has met repeatedly to map out a seven-year “Nuclear Dominance – 3 by 33” plan covering every link from mining to reprocessing.DOE has also awarded nearly $3 billion for enrichment projects, including $900 million each to Centrus Energy and General Matter, while the Export-Import Bank has backed up to $4.2 billion in additional financing. Centrus recently committed $560 million to scale centrifuge manufacturing in Oak Ridge, and we covered its joint-venture discussions with Oklo for HALEU deconversion services.
The private sector is also making progress on their own, not wanting to wait for the government to sort itself out and attempt to take market share while it's up for grabs.
Uranium Energy Corp is expanding ISR mining and advancing conversion licensing. New entrants like FluxPoint Energy and LIS Technologies are targeting conversion and next-generation laser enrichment facilities, aiming for commercial operations before 2030.
We also noted Goldman Sachs’ updates showing persistent supply-demand mismatches that continue to support higher uranium prices over the coming decades.
McKinsey stresses that capital alone will not suffice. Permitting reform, infrastructure build-out, workforce development, and advanced technologies will prove critical to compressing the long lead times inherent in fuel-cycle projects. The firm acknowledges 100% domestic sourcing will prove challenging, yet the analysis underscores that options exist if stakeholders maintain focus.
By Bas van Geffen, senior macro strategist of Rabobank
Concerns about the Middle East continued to dictate markets yesterday. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and there were no signs that this will change soon. Oil prices rose further. Dated Brent jumped 5% on the day to top $111.
Alongside the rise in benchmark energy prices, yields increased too. 10y US Treasury yields closed around 5bp higher, and 10y German Bund yields rose 6bp to 3.1%, dragging broader EUR yields up. Equities struggled. European bourses closed around 1.5% lower, but the S&P pared most of its losses after the European close, so the Euro Stoxx index may catch up to its US counterpart today.
This reversal happened after oil prices came off their intraday highs, and as news broke that Nvidia CEO Huang will join the US delegation to China. President Trump indicated that he wants to focus on economic issues during his summit with President Xi, more so than on geopolitical issues in the Middle East. Markets certainly seem hopeful that Trump and Xi will discuss B200 chips rather than B-2 bombers.
Of course, the Iran war complicates negotiations between the two leaders. China agrees to oppose any toll scheme for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the US State Department. Meanwhile, Iraq and Pakistan have reportedly made deals with Iran to safeguard oil and LNG shipments from the Gulf – underscoring that Iran is able to effectively control the flow of energy through the Strait of Hormuz. China has also further diversified its oil imports. This may make China more resilient to prolonged disruptions in Hormuz, while it also cuts off more potential income for Iran.
But China will probably want something in return. President Trump will reportedly discuss US weapons sales to Taiwan with Xi, breaking with a decades-long US tradition. US allies in Asia are alarmed that Trump may agree to Xi’s request to delay or stop deliveries. That’s a longer-term geopolitical risk, but markets may shrug off any such potential concessions if the US and China report progress on economic issues.
And any optimism from the Trump-Xi summit may be overshadowed by developments in the Middle East. It’s unlikely that tensions will flare up again during the summit, but that’s only two days of respite. On his way to China, President Trump told reporters that stopping Iran’s nuclear programme outweighs Americans’ economic pain. The US presidents’ comments add to concerns that tensions in the Middle East may flare up again after the summit.
Adding further unease about the US’ next steps in the Middle East, the Wall Street Journal reports that the US president spoke with his U.A.E. counterpart to discuss “mutual interests.” This news follows on the WSJ’ report that the United Arab Emirates had secretly carried out military strikes in Iran.
Elsewhere, gilt yields’ rollercoaster ride continues, as domestic politics stack on top of geopolitical risks. Even the BBC is talking about intraday moves in gilts now, which is never a sign that things are going well. Pressure on a defiant PM Starmer is building. Several ministers resigned from their posts yesterday, after dozens of MPs had already called on Starmer to resign. Today, the 11 unions that support the Labour party are expected to issue a joint statement that calls for a roadmap to a new party leader into the next general elections.
Uncertainty about the UK’s leadership continues to weigh on both UK sovereign yields and the currency.
Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 12:45Submitted by Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com
Qatar has requested LNG vessels near its Ras Laffan LNG port to switch off their transponders as part of safety measures at the key export port of the world’s second-largest LNG exporter before the war, anonymous sources with knowledge of the plan told Bloomberg on Tuesday.
The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz has trapped about 20% of daily global LNG flows, mostly those previously shipping out of Qatar and part of the UAE’s LNG flows.
In addition, Iranian drone and missile strikes on energy infrastructure in the region has damaged Qatar’s key LNG liquefaction complex Ras Laffan, the world’s single largest such facility. Due to the attacks, QatarEnergy has been forced to declare force majeure for up to five years on some long-term LNG contracts and has advised that full capacity could take up to five years to restore following extensive damage from the strikes.
The waters around Qatar have seen increased security threats since the war began on February 28. After more than two months of total blockage of Qatari shipments out of the Strait of Hormuz, the major Gulf LNG exporter is now apparently seeking to avoid being targeted.
At least nine LNG tankers that were anchored near Qatar stopped sending signals via their Automatic Identification System from May 11, vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg showed, in a sign that Qatar may have indeed asked ships to go dark to avoid being targeted.
A tanker laden with LNG from Qatar successfully passed the Strait of Hormuz this weekend, the first such transit since February 28.
Crude tankers have also successfully exited the Strait in recent days, after going dark, according to shipping data cited by Reuters.
“Commercial shipping and maritime security activity around the Strait of Hormuz are increasingly shifting into dark or emissions-controlled conditions,” maritime intelligence firm Windward said on Monday.
Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 12:30Mortgage delinquencies fell slightly in March, with the first-lien delinquency rate declining to 3.35%, down 37 basis points from February, as seasonal factors and tax refunds supported borrowers.
The real estate and mortgage industry outlet HousingWire cited Intercontinental Exchange’s May 2026 Mortgage Monitor report, which showed that while the overall mortgage delinquency rate fell in March, there was still concern over serious delinquencies and foreclosures, which are up by 154,000 borrowers from one year ago.
The increase was driven mostly by FHA loans, which rose by 164,000 and now account for a record 55% of seriously past-due mortgages. Overall, 1.6% of active mortgages are seriously delinquent, up 20% year over year.
A lot of questions here...
During the Biden administration, H-1B visa holders were buying houses with 97-100% financing. 97% would come from the FHA, with the rest coming from state first-time home buyer programs.
Zero money down. Thanks to programs that were supposed to be helping low-income American… https://t.co/0ZaLGV0Wru pic.twitter.com/WvlRjgYeJV
Adding to the mortgage delinquency story is Goldman analyst Jason Acosta, who released a note earlier today, showing what he described to clients as the "chart of the day."
The chart indicates that mortgage past-due rates are highest across parts of the Deep South, with Mississippi and Louisiana as the worst-performing states, followed by elevated stress in Alabama, Texas, Indiana, Georgia, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and others.
"On a national level, mortgage delinquencies eased in March, yet higher-severity stress remained elevated even amid the strongest monthly gain in U.S. home prices in two years," Acosta said.
He added, "We just released a new widget looking at past-due rates on a state-by-state basis below, with updates incoming to select between ranges of 30-59 days, 60-89 days, and 90 days+."
Here is the chart: What is the mortgage past-due rate by state?
Latest on the housing market:
The read we have here is that mortgage distress is becoming increasingly concentrated in lower-income Southern states, even as the national delinquency rate improved modestly overall.
Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 12:15