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What Decades Of Academic Literature, Military Doctrine Says About Effectiveness Of 'Decapitation Strikes'
Authored by José Niño via The Libertarian Institute
The United States has long operated under a seductive strategic fantasy. Remove the leader of an adversary organization, whether a drug cartel, a terrorist group, or a sovereign state, and that organization will collapse, enabling American interests to fill the resulting vacuum.
However, decades of academic literature, hard empirical data from Mexico’s drug war, and the lived consequences of America’s post 9/11 targeted killing campaigns all tell a damning story many in the DC ruling class refuse to acknowledge. Decapitation strategies are, at best, tactically satisfying and strategically hollow. At worst, they escalate violence, radicalize successors, and produce precisely the instability they were designed to prevent. The ongoing U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran represents the most ambitious test of this doctrine in history. The results so far are deeply troubling.
US Navy/ReutersThe poor results should come as no surprise to anyone familiar with the academic literature on leadership targeting. The scholarly consensus against decapitation has been building for decades. Jenna Jordan’s landmark research, first published in Security Studies in 2009 and later expanded into her book Leadership Decapitation, examined 298 incidents of leadership targeting from 1945 through 2004. She concluded that “decapitation is not an effective counterterrorism strategy” and that it tends to extend the life of terrorist organizations.
Jordan identifies three structural factors that make organizations resilient to leadership decapitation: bureaucratic depth, popular support, and ideological coherence. The more institutionalized and ideologically rooted an organization is, the more it absorbs the loss of leaders. Martyrdom replaces individuals with myth.
Through analysis of over 1,000 decapitation events against 180 terrorist groups, Jordan found that decapitation “does not increase the mortality rate of terrorist groups and, in some cases, even leads to more terrorist activity,” as War on the Rocks reported. The University of Pretoria’s Emmanuel Ofuasia confirmed that "the decapitation tactic has served as a basis for escalation and proliferation of terrorist groups rather than serving as deterrence against the possibility of recurrence."
The fixation with decapitation strategies is part and parcel of the DC mindset, which puts regime change on a pedestal—consequences be damned. Alexander Downes of George Washington University, whose book Catastrophic Success surveys roughly 90 instances of foreign-imposed regime change, finds that more than 40% of states that experience foreign-imposed regime change have a civil war within the next ten years. Ben Denison of the Cato Institute concurs that “even after high-profile failures in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya, some in the policy community still call for ousting illiberal regimes,” and the empirical record “clearly reveals that a regime-change operation is more likely to fail than to succeed.”
The academic literature is damning enough, but the real-world laboratory of Mexico’s drug war offers even starker evidence of decapitation’s failure. By January 2011, Mexican authorities had captured or killed 20 of their 37 priority cartel targets. Violence did not recede. More than 66,000 drug-related deaths occurred in Mexico between 2007 and 2012.
The landmark 2015 study in the Journal of Conflict Resolution—by Calderón, Robles, Díaz-Cayeros, and Magaloni—found that “captures or killings of drug cartel leaders have exacerbating effects not only on DTO-related violence, but also on homicides that affect the general population.”
The mechanisms are clear: “When drug capos are eliminated, other cartels possess incentives to fight turf wars…Moreover, as the elimination of drug capos weakens existing chains of command, criminal cells begin operating with less restraint.”
The lessons from Mexico have gone unheeded. Today, the same flawed logic drives American policy toward Iran, where prominent voices in the foreign policy establishment have begun sounding the alarm. Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies has been the most prominent institutional voice of skepticism about the Iran campaign.
In March 2026, he wrote that “Killing Iran’s top leaders may feel like a decisive blow, but history shows that decapitation rarely produces the political outcomes the United States hopes for, and often exacerbates instability.” He points to Israel’s repeated targeting of Hamas leaders since 1987 as definitive refutation. Instead of changing political direction, Hamas simply “absorbed its martyrs and lives to fight another day.”
Iran is not a hollow dictatorship held together by one man’s terror. It is an institutionalized revolutionary state that has operated under sanctions, sabotage, covert operations, and assassination campaigns for decades. Its architecture was consciously engineered for continuity under stress.
As Al Jazeera’s analysis notes, “Iran is not a single pyramid with one man at the apex. It is a heterarchical, networked state: Overlapping hubs of power around the Supreme Leader’s office, the Revolutionary Guards, intelligence organs, clerical gatekeepers, and a patronage economy. In such a system, removing one node, even the most symbolic one, does not reliably collapse the structure; redundancy and substitute chains of command are a design feature.”
The evidence is overwhelming, yet Washington refuses to learn. Decapitation strategies represent a cartoon, video game style approach to foreign policy, rooted in the fantasy that eliminating a single leader will cause an entire regime to crumble. DC desperately needs a wakeup call.
The United States cannot kill its way to a more favorable world order. America must abandon the interventionist impulse and embrace strategic retrenchment and accept the harsh realities that not all countries want to be remade in Washington’s image. Restraint, not assassination nor quixotic regime change ventures, is the foundation of a sustainable grand strategy.
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Marsha Blackburn To Secret Service: 'Root Out The Rot'
Authored by Susan Crabtree via RealClearPolitics,
Sen. Marsha Blackburn sent a sharply worded letter Wednesday to Secret Service Director Sean Curran demanding an immediate, top-to-bottom review of the Secret Service, a move that comes nearly two weeks after an armed gunman sprinted past a checkpoint leading to the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner in a third assassination attempt on President Trump.
As part of the review, Blackburn called for a “full, thorough audit of every single employee on your payroll.”
“It is blatantly clear that the Secret Service needs to be cleaned up,” the Tennessee Republican wrote. “Unless you root out the rot, our nation will suffer the consequences.”
Blackburn’s letter also comes just days after a Secret Service Uniformed Division officer was arrested in Miami after being found naked and masturbating in a hallway in yet another embarrassing spectacle.
The senator drew an explicit connection between the misconduct pattern and the agency’s core protective mission: “At a time when President Trump faces increasing threats to his safety, including yet another assassination attempt, the Secret Service cannot afford to have individuals who engage in this kind of embarrassing, disgraceful conduct on its payroll.”
Blackburn stopped short of calling for Curran’s resignation, but her demand for a full personnel audit – along with the blunt warning about consequences – signals mounting congressional pressure on an agency that has faced repeated public scrutiny since the July 2024 assassination attempt against Donald Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania, that nearly killed him. An attempt on Trump’s life two months later at Trump’s West Palm Beach golf course, was another close call.
Blackburn cited the recent arrest of the agent for indecent exposure at the Miami hotel and framed the personnel issues as symptomatic of deeper structural problems – including what she described as persistent difficulties in vetting, hiring, and maintaining agent morale.
“There are broader questions about your agency’s ability to properly vet and hire agents," she wrote, “which has resulted in continued manpower and morale issues.”
Cole Tomas Allen, the suspect charged with multiple felonies for his aborted attack on the White House Correspondents’ dinner, managed to sprint through a checkpoint while allegedly exchanging fire with a Secret Service Uniformed Division officer. Federal prosecutors and Curran have said the officer was shot but was protected from harm by his ballistics vest.
The agents pursued Allen, who fell and then was apprehended 45 yards from the stairs to the ballroom. If the “brave” officers and agents hadn’t acted swiftly, Blackburn wrote, many attendees – including the president – “could have been seriously harmed.”
Just hours after the arrest of the naked officer on Monday, the Secret Service made headlines again – this time for engaging in a gunfight with an armed man that injured a juvenile bystander with a stray bullet near the Washington Monument, which is not far from the White House complex.
Law enforcement experts, including Fox News contributor Paul Mauro, who served 24 years with the new York Police Department, have questioned why the Secret Service didn’t provide more details sooner about Monday’s exchange of fire and the suspect’s injuries. Federal prosecutors on Wednesday charged 45-year-old Michael Marx of Midland, Texas, with assaulting federal officers with a dangerous weapon, among other crimes.
“A press conference over this recent mysterious shooting in D.C. wouldn’t be a bad idea either,” Mauro remarked in an X.com post. “USSS involved in more shooting incidents than NYPD these days. And that’s…new.”
Curran has also drawn fire for telling Fox News last week that the security for the White House Correspondents’ Dinner was “set-up perfectly.”
Former Rep. Jason Chaffetz, who led multiple investigations into the Secret Service when he was Oversight Committee chairman, strongly questioned that characterization. “Perfect? Are you kidding?” he told RealClearPolitics. “What if there were 12 guys with guns that decided to rush that point? “And Curran’s talking about how great the training was. Are you kidding me?” he added.
Former Deputy FBI Director Dan Bongino, who previously served as a Secret Service agent, also expressed concern about the possibility of multiple assailants bombarding Secret Service checkpoints and argued that agents with elite training should help fortify that layer of security.
“What worries me is not the first guy going through who charges the checkpoint. It’s the second, third, and possibly tenth guy after that,” he said in an interview this week with Fox News’ Laura Ingraham. “You get a counter-assault team there, you got a real force to hit back.”
The dinner incident was not the only recent security lapse Blackburn highlighted. Just 19 days before the correspondents’ dinner, sometime between 1 a.m. and 2 a.m. April 6, a gunman fired shots near the White House grounds. In an RCP report cited by the senator, multiple sources said Secret Service investigators were unable to identify any information about the shooter – who, as of the letter’s writing, remains unidentified. Trump also was pressing the agency for more information, the sources said.
Blackburn cited other personnel incidents RCP reported, including a junior Secret Service agent faulted for the security planning and execution failures at the Butler rally marrying a foreign national without promptly notifying her superiors; another in which the FBI raided an agent’s home in an investigation of an alleged massive tax fraud scheme; and an agent charged for murdering his brother on New Year’s Eve.
“These are just a few of the many examples of personnel concerns that demonstrate a clear pattern of incompetence at the Secret Service that must be promptly addressed,” Blackburn wrote Curran.
The spate of such incidents has fueled bipartisan alarm on Capitol Hill, where lawmakers have questioned whether the agency is structurally equipped to protect its principals at a moment when threats against the president are, by Blackburn’s account, escalating.
A bipartisan push began this week to place the Secret Service under direct White House supervision. Led by Reps. Russell Fry and Jared Moskowitz, the move would transfer the Secret Service away from the Department of Homeland Security oversight and make the agency report directly to the White House. After the WHCA scare, RCP reported that White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles had blocked efforts by former DHS Secretary Kristi Noem’s team to impose a layer of oversight at the Secret Service aimed at ensuring deeper reforms under Curran’s leadership.
After the WHCA dinner shooting, Wiles convened a meeting with Secret Service and DHS leaders to discuss “protocol and practices” for major events involving Trump. A senior White House official said the meeting was convened to plan for upcoming events commemorating America 250. Trump also has expressed interest in attending the World Cup, which kicks off June 11.
Susan Crabtree is RealClearPolitics' national political correspondent.
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Netanyahu Insists Iran War To Continue Until Uranium Is 'Physically' Removed
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a 60 Minutes interview which aired Sunday that President Trump still wants Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium removed. Trump on Monday warned that the Iran ceasefire is on 'massive life support'.
Netanyahu told CBS show host Major Garrett that the military campaign had achieved "a great deal" but insisted additional operations remain necessary. That's when he described, "There’s still nuclear material, enriched uranium, that has to be taken out of Iran. There's still enrichment sites that have to be dismantled."
Trump on Iran:
Iran told me, “You are getting the nuclear dust, but you will have to get it.”
They said, “You and China are the only ones that can get it because the sites were obliterated.” pic.twitter.com/bpyRXcNTtw
"There are still proxies that Iran supports," Netanyahu added. "There are ballistic missiles that they still want to produce. Now, we’ve degraded a lot of it, but all that is still there, and there's work to be done."
Clearly the Israeli prime minister is trying to hold the line of maximalist demands on Iran, even as it seems Washington is trying to extricate itself from the conflict while still seeking to present a narrative of 'victory'.
It is true that Trump has still not let up on insisting that what he calls all the "nuclear dust" must be removed from Iran, amid Tehran's repeat objections to this. This lone issue is primarily what has collapsed peace negotiations at this point.
Garrett pressed Netanyahu on just how the removal of Iranian nuclear material would be accomplished, given such a gambit would be obvious recipe for prolonging and even escalating the war.
"With what?" Garrett posed. “Special Forces from Israel, Special Forces from the United States working in tandem under international supervision? How?”
Netanyahu dodged the question, amid growing criticism among the American public that Washington is doing the bidding of Israel in starting and prolonging Operation Epic Fury:
"Well, I’m not gonna talk about military means, but what President Trump has said to me, 'I want to go in there,' I mean, he’s said that publicly. He’s said it and I think he’s right. He's very committed to this. And I think it can be done physically," Netanyahu responded. "That’s not the problem. If you have an agreement, and you go in, and you take it out, why not? That’s the best way."
"What if there isn’t an agreement? Can it be taken out by force?" Garrett asked.
The below segment has raised some serious questions: Bibi trying to dictate US foreign policy?...
🚨 HOLY CRAP. A FOREIGN PRIME MINISTER just told American media YOUR war isn't over, and casually floated sending YOUR sons into Iran to grab uranium.
NETANYAHU: "It's not over."
"You go in and you take it out."
REPORTER: With what? Special forces from Israel? From the United… pic.twitter.com/pcvTwJ80Xo
"Well, you’re gonna ask me these questions. I'm gonna dodge them, so you can ask me that second time, third time, and I’ll dodge it second time, third time," the prime minister replied.
At one point Netanyahu had said: "I think it can be done physically."
While there remains the distinct possibility that this conflict could morph into an eventual ground war, US officials have downplayed the potential of Israeli boots on the ground. And yet Washington hasn't discounted putting American soldiers in harm's way. This is has resulted in anger and frustration among some sectors of the Right in the US.
* * *
Below is the full interview:
Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 22:10