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Goldman's World Cup Winner Prediction Is ...
The 2026 Football World Cup kicks off June 11, with Mexico vs. South Africa opening the tournament at Mexico City Stadium.
The tournament will feature 48 teams across 104 matches at stadiums in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico from next Thursday through July 19.
Jan Hatzius, chief economist and head of global investment research at Goldman Sachs, published a cheat sheet for clients that used a forecasting model built around Elo ratings - the ranking system originally developed for chess - to handicap the tournament. His top pick diverges from the latest Polymarket odds, with Hatzius placing Spain at the top of the list as the most likely World Cup winner.
"The model says that Spain has a 26% probability of winning the trophy, followed by France at 19%, Argentina at 14%, Brazil at 8%, and England at 5%," Hatzius said.
He noted, "Spain is predicted to win because it has the highest Elo ranking, supported by scoring talent and good momentum into the competition. Argentina is penalised by the "winner's slump", i.e. the statistical underperformance of reigning champions in the following World Cup; France suffers from likely facing top-ranked Spain in the semifinals; and England underperforms its Elo rating given historical tournament disappointment, geographical headwinds (likely facing Mexico in high-altitude Mexico City), and a slightly unlucky draw."
Hatzius built a regression model to estimate how many goals each team is likely to score against another, using nearly 20,000 international matches since 1978. The model shows a steep decline in goal scoring, with much of it occurring after World War II.
Elo measures national team strength based on results and opponent quality, updating as teams win, lose, or draw. By this metric, Hatzius and his team place Spain No. 1, ahead of Argentina and France, which differs slightly from FIFA's official men's rankings.
Most Likely Predicted Group Stage Results
Road To Winner
Unlike our previous notes on Goldman's World Cup probabilities in 2022, 2018, and 2014, the rise of Polymarket has changed the betting game, bringing prediction markets directly into the sports-betting mainstream.
The latest Polymarket odds show France at 17%, Spain at 16%, and England at 11%...
...putting market pricing at odds with Goldman's model, which ranks Spain as the winner.
Professional subscribers can read the full World Cup note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.
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Israeli Ambassador To France Accused Of 'Foreign Interference' After Election Remarks
The Israeli ambassador to France has been accused of "foreign interference" after saying he would prefer "anyone rather than Jean-Luc Melenchon" to win the 2027 presidential election.
Speaking in a television interview on Thursday, Ambassador Joshua Zarka said he would rather see any candidate elected to the Elysee Palace than Melenchon, the leader of the left-wing party La France Insoumise (LFI), a strong supporter of Palestinian rights.
Israel's Ambassador to France Joshua Zarka, via AFPZarka also added that he met last month with Marine Le Pen, the leader of the French far-right National Rally. His remarks triggered an immediate backlash from across the French political spectrum.
Manuel Bompard, LFI's national coordinator, described the comments as "blatant foreign interference".
"In a normal democracy, the French authorities should react and condemn this type of statement," he said.
Arnaud Le Gall, an LFI MP responsible for the party's international relations, said Zarka had breached the neutrality expected of diplomats.
"He's a diplomat stationed in France. He's supposed to maintain neutrality in the country where he's posted. So tell him to keep his mouth shut," Le Gall said.
The criticism was echoed by Olivier Faure, leader of the Socialist Party, who called the ambassador's comments "unacceptable interference".
"The French people will decide their own future," Faure said. "No one is surprised to see an envoy of [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu openly admitting his ties to the French far right."
Zarka's remarks also drew criticism from the right. Nathalie Loiseau, a member of the European Parliament from the Horizons party, described Zarka's comments as "clear interference in our domestic political life" and said they were "totally inappropriate" for a foreign ambassador.
🇮🇱🇫🇷 Joshua Zarka dénonce une crise diplomatique sans précédent entre la France et Israëlhttps://t.co/rZxuIE9es0
— i24NEWS Français (@i24NEWS_FR) June 5, 2026During the interview, Zarka acknowledged that Israeli officials had previously avoided formal contact with leaders of Le Pen's party, but argued that the movement had changed.
"The National Front had a clear antisemitic tendency," he said, referring to the party's former name. "The National Rally has changed."
Tyler Durden Sat, 06/06/2026 - 09:20