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Most Americans Expect Prolonged Conflict With Iran
Most U.S. adults oppose the war with Iran and say the U.S. should make a deal to end the war as fast as possible. In a recent survey of 1,700 adults, conducted by the Economist and YouGov between April 17 and 20, only 12 percent said they thought that such a deal would be reached in the next two weeks.
As Statista's Anna Fleck shows in the following chart, roughly half (48 percent) of respondents thought that it was either very or somewhat unlikely that the U.S. would manage to strike a deal with Iran to end the war in the two-week timeframe. A further 41 percent said that there was a 50-50 chance of such an outcome.
You will find more infographics at Statista
This pattern held true for both Democrats and Republicans, albeit with a higher share of Democrats saying it was unlikely (61 percent compared to 31 percent of Republicans) that a deal would be reached to end the war in Iran. Where 31 percent of Democrats were unsure, saying that there was a 50-50 chance, 49 percent of Republicans took this view.
Seven in ten Americans said the U.S. should make a deal to end the war as quickly as possible, while two in ten said they were not sure and one in ten opposed the idea. However, when asked about the conditions for ending the war, Americans were more divided: 35 percent said the U.S. should make a deal even if Iran does not give up its enriched uranium, as 34 percent said it should not.
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After Record $19.50 Premium, Saudis Eye Sharp Cut To June Asia Prices
Submitted by Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com
The world’s top crude exporter, Saudi Arabia, is expected to slash its official selling prices (OSPs) for crude loading for Asia in June from the record-highs for May as the premiums of the Middle Eastern benchmarks eased this month.
Saudi oil giant Aramco is widely expected to announce in early May a reduction of the OSP of the flagship Arab Light crude by between $5 and $12 per barrel compared to the Oman/Dubai average, off which Middle Eastern producers price their crude going to Asia, a Reuters survey of industry sources showed on Tuesday.
The Arab Light grade could see its OSP falling to a premium of $7.50-$14.50 over the average of the Oman and Dubai benchmarks for June, compared to a record-high premium of $19.50 for loadings for Asia in May.
In early April, Saudi Arabia hiked the price of Arab Light loading for Asia in May to a record-high premium over the Middle Eastern benchmarks as the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz upended oil flows and roiled markets and prices.
The premium for May was the highest ever in Saudi pricing, although it was below the $40 per barrel premium over Oman/Dubai that some refiners and traders had expected.
Saudi Arabia typically announces around the fifth of each month its crude pricing for the following month and doesn’t comment on price changes.
The pricing announcement follows the monthly OPEC+ gatherings at which the producers, led by Saudi Arabia, decide how to maintain market stability.
For the June pricing, the Reuters survey participants expect all other grades to also see price reductions of between $5 and $12 per barrel in the premium to Oman/Dubai.
The wide gap of $7 per barrel, in the expectations of the market suggests that traders and refiners in Asia aren’t sure how Saudi Arabia would approach the June pricing, as the Strait of Hormuz is still closed and only the Yanbu port on the Red Sea is regularly shipping out Saudi light crude to international markets.
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NATO Mulls Nixing Annual Summits, Wary Of 'Trump Drama' Overshadowing
Fresh reporting in Reuters says that NATO leadership is mulling ending its practice of holding annual summits as the Trump presidency has "cast a long shadow" over such meetings and as member states are looking for "less drama".
For example, at the 2018 summit Trump threatened to walk out after bitterly complaining over allies' low defense spending. Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s secretary general at the time, wrote in a recently published memoir, "Had he made good on his threat to leave in protest, we would have been left to pick up the pieces of a shattered NATO."
via Associated PressAlso, in 2019 he exited summit early while lambasting then-Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as "two-faced" after Trudeau was caught on a hot mike blasting Trump's behavior.
One report recalls of the scene:
Footage emerged late on Tuesday that appears to show world leaders joking about Trump at the summit, which has been marked by sharp disagreements over spending and future threats, including Turkey’s role in the alliance and China, as well as a clash of personalities that triggered a flurry of incendiary language being deployed by leaders.
The video shows leaders including Trudeau, Johnson, the French president, Emmanuel Macron, the Dutch prime minister, Mark Rutte, and Princess Anne at the Buckingham Palace event on Tuesday evening.
In audio caught on a nearby microphone, Johnson asks Macron: “Is that why he was late?” before Trudeau interjects: “He was late because he takes a 40-minute press conference off the top.”
Trudeau adds: “Oh, yeah, yeah yeah. He announced … ” before he is cut off by Macron, who speaks animatedly to the group. Macron’s back is to the camera and his words are inaudible.
After an edited cut in the film, the footage later shows an incredulous Trudeau telling the group: “You just watched his team’s jaws drop to the floor.”
In his second administration, President Trump's fierce criticisms have only grown, especially related to lack of help in the Iran war and Hormuz Strait crisis, labeling the alliance a "paper tiger" and charging member states with being "free-loaders".
One European diplomat expressed an increasingly common viewpoint among members: "Better to have fewer summits than bad summits," the official said.
And, per Reuters: "Some diplomats and analysts have long argued that annual summits create pressure for eye-catching results that distracts from longer-term planning."
The 2019 Trudeau hot mic incident:
.@JustinTrudeau, @EmmanuelMacron, @BorisJohnson and other VIPs shared a few words at a Buckingham Palace reception Tuesday. No one mentions @realDonaldTrump by name, but they seem to be discussing his lengthy impromptu press conferences from earlier in the day. (Video: Host Pool) pic.twitter.com/dVgj48rpOP
— Power & Politics (@PnPCBC) December 3, 2019For now at least, NATO leadership is insisting it will be business as usual and these annual summits will proceed. "NATO will continue to hold regular meetings of Heads of State and Government, and between summits NATO Allies will continue to consult, plan and take decisions about our shared security," a NATO official told Reuters. But Trump's anti-NATO rhetoric is unlikely to cease anytime soon, setting up for more drama to come.
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25,000 Ground Robots In Battlefield Planned By Ukraine For Frontline Logistics
Authored by Mrigakshi Dixit via Interesting Engineering,
In a move toward fully autonomous warfare, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry plans to procure 25,000 unmanned ground vehicles by mid-2026. This initiative aims to replace human soldiers with robotic systems for all frontline logistics and double the 2025 deployment rate.
Reportedly, Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov stated that the ultimate goal is to have 100 percent of frontline logistics handled by robotic systems.
BIZON-L ground robot.DevDroid/YouTubeThe strategy is already yielding results. In March alone, Ukrainian forces logged over 9,000 missions using ground robots for everything from delivering ammunition to evacuating the wounded.
A key development in this tech surge is the formal codification of the Bizon-L logistics robot.
$330 million investedFollowing a meeting with domestic manufacturers, Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov announced a strategic shift to stabilize the industry by signing UGV contracts through 2027.
This move supports Ukraine’s ambitious goal to transition 100% of frontline logistics to robotic systems, a transition already well underway.
These unmanned systems are proving vital for high-risk logistics and medical evacuations, insulating soldiers from the most dangerous aspects of frontline operations.
To streamline its defense supply chain, Ukraine has invested roughly $330 million (14 billion hryvnia) since January to deliver over 181,000 systems, including drones and electronic warfare units, via a direct digital procurement platform.
Central to this surge is the Bizon-L, a logistics robot that was recently codified under NATO standards.
The Bizon-L is a heavy-lifter designed for the mud and snow of the Donbas.
This high-capacity UGV can transport 300 kilograms (661 pounds) over a 50-kilometer range and is now cleared for use by both Ukrainian forces and international allies.
Utilizing a combination of Starlink satellite data and radio links protected by thermal shielding, the Bizon-L is stepping in to perform last-mile deliveries — tasks previously handled by soldiers who were frequently targeted by Russian FPV drones.
Central to this surge is the Bizon-L, a logistics robot that was recently codified under NATO standards.
The Bizon-L is a heavy-lifter designed for the mud and snow of the Donbas.
This high-capacity UGV can transport 300 kilograms (661 pounds) over a 50-kilometer range and is now cleared for use by both Ukrainian forces and international allies.
Utilizing a combination of Starlink satellite data and radio links protected by thermal shielding, the Bizon-L is stepping in to perform last-mile deliveries — tasks previously handled by soldiers who were frequently targeted by Russian FPV drones.
Read the rest here...
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Israelis Outraged After Govt Sent Vital Arrow Missiles To Germany Mid-Iran War
There's growing outrage and political division in Israel after news emerged that the government and defense ministry fulfilled a weapons contract with Germany, sending vital Arrow air defense missiles to Berlin during the middle of the Iran war.
At the very moment the missiles were being delivered, Israeli citizens were dying under Iran's fierce ballistic missile retaliation attacks during the height of Operation Epic Fury.
Source: Israel Aerospace Industries/UPIThe Jerusalem Post has "confirmed that Israel continued to send Arrow missiles to Berlin mid-war as part of a contract between the countries, even though Israel had a shortage of its own interceptors," the publication writes.
"Some commentators upon learning this information have accused the Israeli government of allowing at least five persons to die and hundreds to be injured when the IDF did not use the Arrow to defend from certain attacks," the report adds.
The Arrow was developed jointly with the United States and is designed to intercept long-range missiles, serving as the highest tier of Israel's multi-layered defense.
The first Arrow was delivered to Germany in 2025, despite that starting with the last June war, it has been an open secret that Israel is running low on interceptors, and that it takes a significant amount of time to replenish them.
In April, we featured analysis describing how Israel only in the last few years grew to become Germany's largest arms partner in a 'mega deal':
Israel’s delivery of the Arrow 3 missile defense system to Germany last year, which was its largest export deal ever at $4.6 billion, led to its share of Germany’s arms imports jumping from 13% during the period 2020-2024 to 55% during the period 2021-2025. At the same time, Israel remained Germany’s third-largest arms client at 10% of its exports from 2021-2025 compared to 11% of them from 2020-2024, with the slight 1% decrease likely being due to three-month-long curb on arms exports to it last year.
Why this matters is because Israel’s new role as Germany’s largest arms supplier might worsen its ties with Russia, especially if exports evolve from defensive systems like the Arrow 3 to offensive ones like the $7 billion deal for 500 rocket launchers and thousands of missiles that they’re now negotiating. Moreover, West Asian geopolitics might radically change after the end of the Third Gulf War, so Russia might not be able to reciprocally sell similar systems to Iran. Israel would then gain an edge over Russia.
Israeli officials have sought to downplay the Arrow deliveries for Germany, in some cases arguing that the benefits for Israel actually saves civilian lives - based on other defense items Israel gets in return.
Also, as JPost writes further, "A Maariv report indicated Israeli sources were concerned that if they did not maintain the pace of Arrow deliveries to Germany, it could harm relations or the already signed and potential future defense deals."
"The Post understands that in addition to general economic benefits, and economies of scale benefits heavily increasing Israel's own volume of Arrows for self-defense, that the deal with Germany provided two other crucial items," the publication adds.
The fact that much of Israel's defense is underwritten by the US taxpayer also provides an ultimate backstop from Israeli leaders' perspective. The longer the Iran war persists, and as more Israeli arms exports leave port, the more the controversy is likely to grow.
Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 02:45