By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities
Markets have been almost totally dismissive of the conflict in Iran. Frankly, the number of countries, including oil-rich nations, that had been firing at each other seemed quite high, yet most markets shrugged it off. While the Strait remained closed, or blockaded, or blocked, the market remained in Open Sesame mode this week.
Moonshot
Artemis II wasn’t the only “moonshot” we’ve seen.
The SOX index has jumped almost 50% since March 30th. That would be incredible, but 18 straight days of gains is wildly impressive! (Even the NY Mets could only do the same thing 12 days in a row, but in the other direction).
The lower chart is RSI (Relative Strength Indicator and one of my favorite technicals to look at). This index went from the cusp of oversold, to heavily oversold, to overbought territory in 2 weeks and gets “more” overbought by the day. Every strong chip earnings report not only “skyrockets” that stock, but it also pulls up the entire sector.
The AI and Data Center Buildout narrative remains completely intact even as “war” rages. If anything, the need for domestic AI and Data Centers is growing as physical security concerns continue in the Middle East.
Not Sure if “Laggards” Is the “Right” Word, But…Quantum computing has bounced, but unlike the semis, it is not even at the highs of the year, let alone the highs from last year!
If you own a “quantum” ETF, you likely have seen far better returns in the past few weeks than this chart would indicate. But that is because the ETFs own a lot of semiconductors. QTUM (Defiance Quantum ETF), the largest “quantum” ETF at $4.1 billion, has TER as its largest holding. INTC, STM, and MU were the next largest holdings. So, I tried to identify 4 tickers from WQTM that seemed to be more “pure play” quantum.
We have yet to see a real breakout in Uranium and Rare Earths stocks.
REMX (for Rare Earths and Critical Minerals) and URA have bounced, but Uranium is still lower than it was before the war. If you look at the “small reactors” which were all the rage, their chart looks a lot more like the chart from the quantum stocks. Even in rare earths, names like MP, which the U.S. government invested in, is more than 35% lower than its high last October.
A warning sign? A rational reassessment? The next asset classes to “catch a bid”?
Bitcoin, where the news has generally been good, is still hanging around the $76k to $78k range. It has “recovered” the 100-day moving average, but has not rushed to “close the gap” with the 50-DMA. I’m watching this closely as another “next leg” of this rally. I cannot help but wonder if some of the “ceiling” on Bitcoin is due to concern that there may be some level of selling pressure from a country like Iran. Iran may not have Bitcoin, but given the fact that they allegedly asked for “safe passage” payments in crypto, it seems plausible that they do. Given the blockade and seizure of vessels, it would create pressure to sell (or transfer it to someone else who sells it) to fund their economy (if they have any).
I’m leaning towards a “breakout” as people look for anything remotely adjacent to new tech/chips that isn’t at its highs.
Markets Ignoring Stubborn Oil Prices Out the CurveWhile we still see issues in LNG, Diesel, and Jet Fuel (also in the distillates and chemical industry), let’s go back to the big 2 – WTI and Brent.
WTI spiked to $120 March 9th and again got to almost $120 on April 7th. It is “comfortably” lower now, at $95. Brent spiked to $120 three times during the conflict and is “only” at $106. A bit less comforting than WTI.
But the story, as several people in the admin have pointed to, is what is happening to oil “out the curve.” When the admin was pointing this out, there was a pretty quick drop from “elevated” front end contracts as you moved out the curve. Now we are sitting at just under $80 for the November contract. That is closer to the highs of this conflict. The November contracts are now near their highs (since that “crazy” first weekend). It is difficult to be encouraged by this.
The further out the curve you go, the more it includes people “in the know” and less about speculation. And this pricing is consistent with the warnings that we keep hearing from participants in the physical products. I suspect that even in the event of a good deal with Iran, pricing out the curve doesn’t back down much from here.
It is possible that equities are fully pricing this in and don’t care. That the AI and Data Center story and current round of earnings are enough to cover this possibility.
I cannot help but wonder if we are being a bit complacent, especially since AFFORDABILITY has been an issue and has not dissipated in any way, shape, or form (at least not for the “average” American).
Maybe I’m looking too hard for something that might derail the rally (as opposed to the prior section when we were looking for what might benefit from the next wave), but I do have some concerns that people “in the know,” already “know” oil is going to remain uncomfortably high (for consumers) even if a good deal is reached.
Bottom LineOn rates, 4.25% is still the “midpoint” of our range. I think you buy 10s above 4.4% and sell if we get to 4.1%. Maybe a touch too wide of a range, but there is a lot of noise out there.
On credit, IG remains boring. HY has some interesting risks, so maybe a touch more cautious there, while I cannot help but want to nibble at the private credit/BDC space. IGV (software ETF) hung in last week, despite some headlines from the private credit side that could have hurt, and despite the massive rally in AI/Data Centers – which until recently didn’t seem good for software. IGV, BDCs, and Private Credit seem to be various forms of the same trade, and it is difficult not to scale in a little here, once again under the theory that they are under-owned and at some point capital will come looking for stocks with a story that is well off its highs.
On equity. European ProSec! Is Europe finally getting the joke? They are lending money to Ukraine to buy weapons. It has been reported that Sweden has been interdicting “ghost” ships to stop Russian oil sales. Many of the European stocks in the ProSec™ theme have been outperforming similar stocks in the U.S. Yes, Europe is more exposed to oil prices than we are, but that is precisely why you want to buy into their energy industry – the realization that they have to do something to reduce their exposure to regions outside of their control and harness their own resources!
I have to admit, I’m not even checking (or at least barely checking) Twitter for Iran headlines. Markets are closed, so nothing to say about them now, and by Sunday night, the story may have changed anyway, which in turn might look completely different by Monday morning. As a strategist, I think I’m either in the depression or acceptance phase of grief as it relates to trying to manage risk around the conflict.
Good luck and Academy will continue to try to bring our unique resources to bear on the geopolitical situation to help you navigate it as smoothly as possible!
Tyler Durden Sun, 04/26/2026 - 18:40On Friday, a report crossed the wire that Ford and Geely had been in discussions about collaborating more closely, including whether their developing European partnership could expand into the U.S. market, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Ford denied the claims, which stated that one idea involved Ford using Geely’s vehicle technology domestically. The talks had reportedly cooled, with both sides shifting attention back to Europe, where they are considering sharing production capacity and technical resources.
Geely is motivated to enter the U.S., a lucrative but tightly restricted market for Chinese automakers. High tariffs, bans on Chinese-connected vehicle software, and political resistance from U.S. industry and lawmakers all make entry difficult.
Ford itself has signaled caution, with leadership stressing the importance of protecting American jobs and competitiveness. A company spokesman reinforced that stance, saying, “Our commitment to a level playing field and safeguarding our home market remains absolute.”
The WSJ wrote on Friday that Geely, for its part, has kept its response general, noting, “We always keep an open mind when it comes to exploring cooperative opportunities,” while avoiding specifics about any potential deal.
Earlier discussions went further than simple cooperation, including the possibility of Ford building future models on a Geely-developed platform and leveraging its engineering to speed up EV development. Geely also explored using Ford’s existing manufacturing footprint—particularly in Europe—to bypass trade barriers and scale production more efficiently. While those ideas remain on the table in some form, they highlight how both companies see strategic value in collaboration, even as geopolitical tensions limit how far that cooperation can extend.
Later in the day on Friday after the report, Ford "denied a news report that it has held talks with Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. about bringing Chinese car technology to the US market", claiming "no such talks" happened.
The broader context is intensifying global competition: Chinese automakers are gaining ground internationally with cheaper, tech-focused vehicles, putting pressure on Western companies. Even so, any attempt to formalize a U.S. partnership would face significant political scrutiny, making overseas collaboration a more practical path for now.
Tyler Durden Sun, 04/26/2026 - 18:23