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Fed holds interest rates steady as dissent mounts over whether to hike rates soon
No Rate-Change Sparks 3 Dissents As Warsh Fed Delivers Biggest 'Non-Cut' Surprise In Decades
Tl;dr: The Fed held rates unchanged, delivering the biggest surprise "non-cut" to the market in decades. Three dissenters wanted a rate-hike, clearly signaling the direction of travel and confirming this decision as a "hawkish hold" though arguably only marginally.
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Since the last FOMC meeting on June 17th (Kevin Warsh's first as Fed Chair), a lot has happened, with the Iran war re-erupting driving oil prices and the dollar higher, while stocks (momo/semis meltdown), bonds, gold, and bitcoin are all lower...
Both growth and inflation macro data has surprised to the downside...
But, oil's resurgence has pushed rate-hike odds significantly higher...
But, this will still be one of the first Fed meetings in years where the market does not have at least 80% confidence in what the committee will do...
One way or another, this will be the largest "non-cut" surprise in decades.
If the Fed hikes today, it will be almost as big of a surprise as Powell's 50bps cut in Sept '24 meant to give the election to Kamala. pic.twitter.com/5tQyfvye1H
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 29, 2026As we detailed earlier, since 2015, traders have foreseen the Fed’s ultimate rate decision with an average error of 2.4 basis points the day before the central bank’s announcement, according to a note from Ian Lyngen, head of US rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets.
“The market is set up for a sharper kneejerk response to the FOMC announcement than is typically the case,” Lyngen said.
Jonathan Pingle, chief US economist at UBS, said he hasn’t felt this uncertain about an imminent Fed rate decision in 20 years, back when Ben Bernanke became Fed chair.
A lack of a track record by Warsh and recent divisions among Fed officials are further clouding the outlook, he said, not ruling out a scenario where Warsh is the one who casts the deciding vote.
“Given the fact that he can push around sort of the median of the committee at the moment, he’s going to decide policy for the next few meetings, and we really have no idea how Kevin Warsh thinks about monetary policy.”
Remember, there are/were 9 members of the committee that saw hikes this year...
Most pundits and sell-side analysts see the central bank leaving rates on hold - especially since last month's inflation reports came well below expectations, and there are no dots or forecasts to update this month.
So, with the market pricing a one-third chance of a hike today, what did The Fed decide?
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*FED VOTES 9-3 TO HOLD BENCHMARK RATE IN 3.5%-3.75% RANGE
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*FED: HAMMACK, KASHKARI AND LOGAN DISSENT IN FAVOR OF RATE HIKE
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*FED REPEATS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IS EXPANDING AT A SOLID PACE
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*FED REPEATS COMMITTEE WILL DELIVER PRICE STABILITY
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*FED REPEATS JOB GAINS HAVE KEPT PACE WITH WORKFORCE
The three dissents in favor of a rate hike clearly show the direction of travel.
And that may prove helpful to Warsh if he aims to tamp down inflation pressures.
Read the redline below (not much changed)...
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US-Owned LNG Ship Reportedly Struck By Kamikaze Drone At Egyptian Port
A potentially major escalation emerged late Wednesday after a US-owned gas-processing vessel moored at Egypt's Mediterranean port of Damietta was reportedly struck by a drone, according to Reuters, citing maritime security firm Ambrey. Details remain scant, and this assessment is preliminary.
Explosion disrupts Damietta LNG hub
An explosion at Egypt's Damietta LNG terminal has disrupted operations at one of the country's key LNG import hubs after damaging the Energos Winter floating storage and regasification unit and the GasLog Salem LNG tanker. Both vessels have… pic.twitter.com/mYNTUanzT7
🚨🇺🇸🇪🇬🇲🇭 A US-owned LNG floating storage facility flying a Marshall Islands flag was struck by at least one drone in Damietta, Egypt.
Local authorities say the situation is now ‘under control.'
“The vessels involved have been safely relocated outside the port area... port… pic.twitter.com/te6MxlOtDp
Ship-tracking data from Bloomberg shows the gas-processing vessel Energos Winter, which serves as a floating storage and regasification unit, moored off the port of Damietta. The port hosts the Damietta LNG terminal, a critical outlet for processing and exporting Egyptian and regional natural gas to Europe.
Reuters reported:
The drone hit floating storage tanker Energos Winter, causing a fire that then spread to another vessel, Gaslog Salem, three trading sources familiar with the incident said. Two separate security sources said the cause of the blast was a drone strike.
The crew was evacuated, and the fire had been brought under control, Ambrey said, adding that no party had claimed responsibility.
Our partners at Newsquawk issued an alert at around 12:09 p.m. New York time that appeared to contradict Reuters' reporting on the floating storage and regasification unit:
Reports of a drone attack targeting Damietta port are false, Al Hadath reports, citing a source.
There are also conflicting reports on X: Some say it was a drone strike, while others say it was an industrial accident.
Two small drones hit it from two points according to a source in that port. No industrial accident at all.
— Babak Taghvaee - The Crisis Watch (@BabakTaghvaee1) July 29, 2026Catch up with the latest US-Iran wrap. Read more here.
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Trump Invites California Teen Lifeguard Who Rescued Boy To White House
Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,
A teen lifeguard, who heroically dove into pounding waves to save a young boy, will be honored by President Donald Trump at the White House.
Lifeguards rescue boy at California beach amid intense waves"We're going to bring this heroic young man, and his family, into the White House with, perhaps, the boy he saved, to give him a High Civilian Honor," Trump announced on X July 28. "Very brave, he deserves it!"
The lifeguard, Ryder Williams, 16, rescued the 10-year-old boy on July 25 at Seabright Beach, about 6 miles east of the popular Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk and about 60 miles south of San Francisco.
A witness, Scott Vander Dussen, posted the viral video of the rescue on Instagram.
View this post on InstagramA post shared by Scott Vander Dussen (@santacruznow)
In the clip, Williams is seen running into the rough water before he grabs the boy around the chest. The boy appeared to be exhausted and going limp, and unable to hold onto the lifeguard as relentless waves crashed over them.
The two were overcome with high surf multiple times before Williams was able to pull the boy close enough to the beach to be aided by another lifeguard and members of the public.
"That boy was moments from not coming back," Vander Dussen said in a social media post on X. "A few seconds, a few degrees, a few yards of distance, and this is a very different story with a very different ending."
Vander Dussen told NBC-owned KNTV-TV the waves were at "normal intensity" one moment and then suddenly changed.
"It caught a lot of people off guard," Vander Dussen said. "Unfortunately, this young man was overwhelmed and swept out in just a moment's time. I'm glad it ended the way it did."
A series of tropical storms and hurricanes, including Fausto and Genevieve, has impacted the California coast since late last week, resulting in higher surf and hazardous conditions.
The National Weather Service issued a beach hazard advisory this week for the central California coastline. Forecasters warned of an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents. Breaking waves could reach up to 10 feet along some beaches, the weather service said.
"Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and never turn your back on the ocean," the advisory read.
California State Parks, which operates the lifeguard program at Santa Cruz, said thousands of ocean rescues happen every year.
"Our State Park lifeguards courageously risk their own lives every day to keep our visitors safe," California State Parks spokesman Tyler Hersko told The Epoch Times. "Their dedication never goes unnoticed and they are truly heroes to their local communities, Californians and the nation."
The department employs about 600 seasonal lifeguards every summer and about 70 permanent lifeguards who make about 10,000 rescues every year, according to Hersko.
Since the start of the month, the lifeguards have made 3,600 rescues and provided 1,600 cases of medical aid.
State Parks didn't say whether Williams had accepted the president's invitation to the White House.
Tyler Durden Wed, 07/29/2026 - 13:25