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Congress Moves To Boost Drone Funding As "War Unicorns" See Possible Procurement Supercycle
Needham analysts see increasing congressional support for drones and counter-drone technologies as lawmakers advance the latest FY27 National Defense Authorization Act and related appropriations bills. This is bullish for defense-tech "war unicorns" specializing in drones, robotics, autonomy, and counter-UAS systems, as the Trump war economy shifts into higher gear.
Analyst Austin Bohlig launched Needham's FY27 Defense Budget Tracker, which provides clients with updates on next-generation defense technologies, especially drones, robotics, and autonomous systems.
Bohlig said the defense funding framework remains intact, with about $1.15 trillion in total defense spending and about $21 billion allocated for "defensive and offensive unmanned and autonomous systems."
"While the proposed $350B defense reconciliation package, including ~$54B for unmanned-related initiatives, remains the largest outstanding variable, we remain upbeat on the overall funding outlook and believe additional funding for unmanned and autonomous systems is likely," the analyst said, adding:
FY27 Defense Authorization and Appropriations Advance:
We believe Congress made incremental progress over the past two weeks in advancing the FY27 defense budget process. Both the House Armed Services Committee (HASC) and Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) approved their respective versions of the FY27 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), authorizing $1.15T in defense spending and advancing the legislation to their respective chamber floors. On the funding side, the House Defense Appropriations Subcommittee recently approved a defense spending bill largely consistent with the Administration's proposed FY27 budget, providing ~$1.1T in discretionary funding across the DoW. The bill is scheduled to be considered by the full House Appropriations Committee later this month, while the Senate Appropriations Committee needs to continue to draft its companion legislation in the coming months.
$21B Unmanned Budget Remains Intact as Congress Pushes for Additional Investment:
From an unmanned systems perspective, we believe the initial FY27 legislative drafts reinforce and potentially accelerate the DoW shift toward autonomy and robotic warfare. The President's FY27 discretionary budget request includes ~$21B for autonomous systems spanning UAS, USV, UUV, UGV, C-UAS and enabling autonomy technologies. In our prior FY27 Deep Dive , we identified and analyzed many of the largest known unmanned and autonomy-related programs embedded within the defense budget. That said, we believe congressional testimony and proposed legislative language suggest strong bipartisan support for expanding these investments rather than scaling them back. As a result, we have a high degree of confidence that funding for unmanned and autonomous systems will at least meet the Administration's proposed levels, with a growing possibility for upside as the legislative process continues to unfold.
Proposed $350B Incremental Defense Package Remains Up in the Air:
While the FY27 base defense budget appears to be advancing largely as expected, we believe the more important debate is the proposed $350B defense reconciliation package, which includes ~ $54B of incremental funding for autonomous systems through the Defense Autonomous Warfare Group (DAWG) program. This funding has become increasingly politicized over the past several months, particularly after Congress decided not to include it in the 2nd reconciliation package in May, creating uncertainty around the timing and likelihood of passage and, in our view, contributing to investor concerns across the defense sector. Although the timing remains uncertain, we remain upbeat on the ultimate funding outlook and believe there are multiple legislative pathways for the DoW to access incremental funding should the current reconciliation approach encounter delays.
Separately, Breaking Defense has reported that the defense spending bill would create a combatant command for drones, reinforcing the congressional push toward unmanned systems as the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have spooked the U.S. military into the early chapters of a drone and counter-drone procurement super cycle. The modern battlefield has forever changed.
This is great news for war unicorns operating in the space, with years of tailwinds almost certainly ahead.
Related:
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Professional subscribers can read much more on military tech at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.
Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 18:00Rare Earth Stocks Pop After G7 Unveils Plan To Reduce Dependence On China For Critical Minerals
Rare earth stocks spiked on Wednesday after G7 leaders agreed to strengthen coordination on critical minerals as they seek to reduce dependence on China-dominated supply chains, according to a new report from Reuters.
Without naming China directly, the group set a goal of limiting reliance on any single external supplier of rare earths and permanent magnets to less than 60% by 2030, with a longer-term target of 50%.
Reuters reports that to support that effort, the G7 plans to align critical mineral stockpiling strategies, beginning with lithium and nickel, and establish a new platform for policy coordination, data sharing, market monitoring, and crisis response. The platform will work closely with the International Energy Agency, which will provide analysis and early warnings of supply disruptions and market distortions.
The group also pledged to support investment across the entire critical minerals supply chain—from mining and processing to manufacturing—through development finance institutions, export credit agencies, and private-sector partnerships. Since the start of 2026, governments have announced 195 related projects totaling €64 billion ($74 billion) in investment.
Neha Mukherjee, research manager at consultancy Benchmark Mineral Intelligence commented: "The G7 statement is an important signal of intent, but the pace of diversification will ultimately depend on whether policy support translates into investment across the midstream and downstream parts of the value chain."
Despite the commitments, analysts note that diversification will be difficult, particularly because China controls about 90% of global processed rare earth and permanent magnet production. The G7 is also exploring measures such as joint procurement, subsidies, quotas, and price-support mechanisms, while expanding domestic stockpiles and increasing recycling capacity to make recycled materials a significant share of critical mineral consumption by 2030.
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Silt, Anchovies, And Economic Disaster
Authored by Matt Badiali via DailyReckoning.com,
Silt and anchovy scales.
Sometimes the greatest scientific discoveries start with the simplest things.
Today, meteorologists are worried about a severe global event. It’s part of an atmospheric pattern that wasn’t recognized until the late 1960’s. But it has had major economic impact over the decades. And it will have an impact this year if it’s as bad as predicted.
But the story starts with marine mud and frustrated fishermen.
Geologists saw something odd in sediment cores taken off the West coast of South America. The cores looked like layer cakes. One layer of mud, another of fish scales…repeated through the core.
The layers reflect massive shifts in weather patterns. But it wasn’t understood until the late 1960’s. That’s when Jacob Bjerknes, a Norwegian American meteorologist, linked the marine sediment record with atmospheric observations. He recognized that the ocean and atmosphere acted in a feedback loop that had dramatic impacts on the land.
The formal term is the El Niño, Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. It gets its name from Peruvian fisherman. They called the warm currents that sometimes occurred around Christmas “El Niño”.
What Bjerknes described was the change in surface water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. When warm water hits Peru around Christmas, it rains. A lot. The rivers flood down from the mountains and drop an impressive amount of sediment.
The image below shows the warm Pacific from the 1998 El Niño event, compared to the cool period (called La Niña):
The Peruvian fishermen hated these warm currents, because the fishing was terrible. The warm water and strong rains disrupted the local food chain.
Normally, the cold, nutrient rich Humboldt current wells up against the coast. The nutrients feed massive schools of anchoveta and other bait fish. During these periods, the sediments become silvery layers of fish scales and biological debris.
That’s how geologists learned to track atmospheric events. It was a huge breakthrough for scientists. But it also had economic implications.
Major ImpactIn modern times, two massive El Niño’s, in 1972 and again in 1982, devastated fish populations. Before 1972, Peru was the largest fishing nation in the world. In 1970, the country caught 12 million metric tons of anchoveta. Then a massive El Niño hit and crushed the fishing industry. The combination of over-fishing (to make up the catch) and the weather devastated the fishery. In 1973, they landed 2 million metric tons. This caused a global fish-meal crisis. It drove agricultural feed up 250%.
However, the 1972 version was just a warmup. The real monster El Niño hit in 1982. This was an unprecedented weather disaster. Warm tropical waters pushed further south than ever before. The warmth stayed so long that it either killed off or forced cold water fish to migrate to other locations.
This time, the damage wasn’t limited to South America. Fishermen along the eastern side of the Pacific saw reduced catches of critical species. Tuna, smelt, mahi mahi, barracuda and other species suddenly show up in places they are never seen.
Here’s what the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration says about strong El Niño and fish populations in California:
A major consequence of an El Niño is the loss of commercially important species where they traditionally occur. A notable example is the movement of the market squid to cooler waters to the north, away from established fisheries in California. This phenomenon is also true for many rockfish species that move from nearshore areas to deeper or more northerly and cooler waters. Pacific whiting likewise shift northward from their spawning and feeding areas off California, Oregon, and Washington to the more temperate latitudes centered off Vancouver Island.
And that’s only part of the economic impact of a strong El Niño. As we mentioned earlier, El Niño brings rain to the west coast of Peru. That can disrupt mining, along with fishing. But it does more than that. Here’s a general map of weather patterns associated with El Niño (from NOAA.gov):
The international monetary fund (IMF) tracked the real impact of El Niño on GDP growth around the world. They found that countries like Australia, India, Indonesia, New Zealand, Peru, and South Africa face a short-lived fall in economic activity in response to an El Niño.
The study also noted that El Niño brings strong storms to Chile, which disrupts copper mining. Japan sees more typhoon strikes.
El Niño does have some benefits for North America. California usually gets more rain, which helps the farmers. The Northeast sees warmer winters, so it uses less energy. And the east coast sees fewer hurricanes. In fact, there are zero recorded major hurricane strikes on the East Coast of the U.S. during El Niño…except Florida.
Hurricane Andrew struck Miami as a massive category five storm in August 1992. It’s unusual to have the first named storm that late in hurricane season.
If the forecast severe El Niño comes to pass, we can expect food inflation on things grown internationally. If history is correct, coffee, palm oil, and wheat will go up in price. And we can expect some local problems from flooding and severe weather.
It’s not enough to speculate on just yet, but there could be some short-term trades from this oddball weather phenomenon. We’ll keep an eye out.
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"Chinese Empire Is Next": Townsend Warns Beijing's Energy Dominance Is Rewriting The Global Order
Veteran energy economist Dr. Anas Alhajji said during last night’s ZeroHedge debate that Iranian crude trading activity reflects a serious peace deal sticking. Alhajji joined Jeff Currie, co-chair of Abaxx Exchange, and Erik Townsend of Macro Voices to weigh in on the Iran deal’s implications for oil prices, which he believes are poised for a significant decline. Townsend, meanwhile, thinks China will come out on top.
Currie, unlike Alhajji, remains bullish crude due to supply constraints and, assuming Hormuz does open Friday, there is still a 6-week lag before ships begin reaching their destination. That… and there’s no telling what the Israelis will do given that hardliners are already voicing their plans to continue attacking Lebanon, violating a core component of the ceasefire.
Here were some highlights though we recommend the full discussion included at the end:
Alhajji: Iran Deal Is SeriousAlhajji argued the current ceasefire, even if tested, is likely serious.
"The question is, if this deal does not work, what is the default?" Alhajji asked. "It seems that if we have a default, basically, we are going to end up with a status quo where there is no war, no peace," he said. "I don't think we are going to revert to a war. It will be a default somehow of a status quo with attacks from time to time."
Tehran seems to credibly want a lasting peace, Alhajji said, judging by their ceasing of shadow discount sales to China.
"I'm going to tell you something that tells me that this is really serious," he said. "If we go back and study the Iranian behavior, now the market is telling us that Iranians are not able to export most of their oil because of the blockade. Well, that is not the case because if you go back to the era before the negotiations, the Iranians were able to smuggle.”
“When they are certain that there will be a solution, they look at it this way: ‘So, okay, either I sell my own oil to China at 40% discount… Or I wait just for a month or a few weeks, I'm going to get world price.’”
The fact that the Iranians are waiting for worldwide sales indicates a genuine anticipation that a peace deal is tangible.
— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) June 17, 2026 The Chinese Century?Host Erik Townsend argued that the current Hormuz crisis may highlight a strategic advantage China has spent decades building:
"I'm sorry, I know a lot of Americans don't want to hear this, but sometimes the truth hurts. China has by far, by far, the most advanced nuclear energy program in the world. They've done more to diversify their energy resources. They've been smarter than anyone else, including us, about planning."
Referencing Currie's recent Carlyle Group research paper called the "New Joule Order," Townsend suggested that energy strategy ultimately shapes geopolitical power.
"Who's in charge of the world really derives from military power," he said. "Military power derives from energy dominance. Energy dominance derives from energy strategy and energy policy. And China's is a hell of a lot better than anybody else's, including ours."
“We went from the British Empire to the American Empire… I think the Chinese Empire is next and I think energy policy is what takes them there."
Currie agreed that the existing global framework is reaching an inflection point, though he argued the next era will be defined by a different form of energy competition.
"I definitely think that we ran the course of Bretton Woods, which was defined by the U.S. Navy, the U.S. dollar, and the global oil trade," Currie said. "I think it's come to a head right now and we need to replace it."
— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) June 17, 2026Watch the full debate below, on YouTube, or listen on Spotify.
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 16, 2026 Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 17:20