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J&J's Proposed $5.5 Billion Talc Settlement May "Lift Remaining Overhang" On Shares, Says Guggenheim
Johnson & Johnson announced late Monday that it had reached an agreement to commit $5.5 billion to resolve most lawsuits alleging its talc products caused ovarian cancer. The settlement could end 15 years of litigation and "lift the remaining overhang" on J&J shares, according to one institutional trading desk.
The "comprehensive resolution," as described by J&J, requires participation from law firms representing at least 95% of pending state and federal claims. The company faces roughly 76,000 lawsuits, though some Wall Street analysts expect that number could soon top 90,000.
J&J maintains that its talc products are safe and never contained asbestos. It stopped selling talc-based baby powder in the US in 2020 and globally in 2023 after repeated attempts to resolve the claims through bankruptcy court failed.
"Studies show talc is safe, does not contain asbestos, and does not cause cancer," J&J wrote in the press release.
"After decades of litigation and full vetting of the science in an extensive hearing, plaintiffs effectively conceded their inability to prove specific causation by withdrawing their experts on the topic in two bellwether cases," said Erik Haas, Worldwide Vice President of Litigation, Johnson & Johnson.
Haas continued, "In a watershed moment, the Court thereafter ordered plaintiffs to show why the remaining claims should not be dismissed, confirming what we have maintained for years: that these claims lack scientific merit and were sustained only by unreliable expert opinions that could not survive rigorous judicial review."
Guggenheim Securities senior biopharmaceutical equity research analyst Vamil Divan wrote in a note that a "Potential Talc Settlement Could Lift Remaining Overhang on JNJ Shares," adding, "It's Not Over' Til It's Over, but This Time It May Actually Be Over."
Divan added more color:
JNJ has announced an update on their ongoing talc litigation, with the company reaching a proposed settlement that would lead to them paying a minimum of $5.5Bn to resolve the outstanding claims related to the product potentially causing ovarian cancer.
We have lost count on the number of times the company has seemingly come close to resolving this issue but not being successful, but this time appears potentially different with law firms representing the MDL and state leadership supporting the resolution and apparently poised to recommend it to their clients, per the company.
JNJ also clarified to us that the minimum $5.5Bn commitment would be paid out on a claim-by-claim basis based on a grid that assigns a value to each claim based on numerous criteria, starting with $3Bn next year.
We would note that our investor discussions on talc have declined markedly over the past year as the company has delivered significant positive progress both commercially and with their pipeline, particularly in Innovative Medicine.
As a result, it is not clear to us how much of an overhang this talc litigation actually is on JNJ shares anymore. However, we believe expectations were still in the ~$10Bn range for what JNJ may need to pay to settle all of the outstanding ovarian cancer claims, so if this can be resolved for ~$5.5Bn then we think that should be received positively by the Street.
Analysts from Citi offered their take on the J&J development:
Another Proposed Resolution for Ovarian Talc, Hopefully the Last
Management has proposed another resolution of its ovarian talc litigation, potentially tying off 15 years of litigation. The resolution follows a July 22 court ordering that plaintiffs exhibit why the remaining talc claims should not be dismissed for inability to prove specific causation – “The order followed plaintiffs’ withdrawal of their specific causation experts in two bellwether cases, after a hearing that demonstrated their opinions were not based upon reliable scientific methodologies.” The resolution requires participation of at least 95% of the remaining claimants, with total payments of $5.5B including the first payment of no more than $3B in 2027, and no additional payments before 2028. While management has been at this threshold previously, with the inability of the plaintiffs to provide specific causation in these pivotal cases, it appears that this proposed resolution will be the final, successful one. We rate JNJ Buy.
J&J shares rose about 2% in premarket trading. The stock had gained nearly 29% for the year through Monday's close.
Wall Street remains firmly bullish. Among analysts tracked by Bloomberg, 71.4% rate J&J a "Buy," while the remaining 28.6% recommend "Hold." None carries a "Sell" rating.
The average 12-month price target stands at $276.24.
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Max'd Out Again: FAA Proposes Inspections For Hundreds Of Boeing 737 Planes Over Seat Installations
Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is proposing an inspection of hundreds of seats installed in Boeing 737 Max aircraft due to safety concerns.
The FAA proposed adopting a new airworthiness directive for three 737 Max models—737-8, 737-9, and 737-8200, the agency said in a notice published in the Federal Register on July 27.
An airworthiness directive is a legally enforceable regulation issued by the FAA to correct what it deems to be an unsafe condition in a product. The proposed directive “would require a detailed inspection of the seat track fittings of each left and right side track-mounted passenger seat assembly for correct installation and applicable on-condition actions,” the FAA said in a notice.
According to the agency, it has received a report suggesting that certain track-mounted passenger seats were not properly installed in the models’ seat tracks. Incorrect installations can result in seats disengaging from seat tracks during turbulence, increased load, or emergency landing.
If not addressed, the situation could result in passengers and crew members getting injured during an emergency situation and the aisle becoming blocked, which can slow down an evacuation process, the FAA warned.
The FAA decided to issue the notice after determining that the unsafe conditions are “likely to exist or develop on other products of the same type design,” the agency said.
The issue is estimated to affect 453 airplanes. With an estimated 69 track-mounted passenger seat assemblies per airplane, aircraft operators may need to shell out more than $2.65 million to inspect all the affected seats, according to the FAA.
A Boeing spokesperson said the planemaker issued guidance to operators about the issue in December 2025.
“We support the FAA making that guidance mandatory,” the spokesperson said.
The FAA recently determined that Boeing can resume issuing airworthiness certifications for these models. An airworthiness certificate is issued at the last stage of an aircraft’s production process and confirms that the plane is safe to operate.
The FAA prohibited Boeing from issuing these certificates for newly built 737 planes in 2019 following two accidents.
In the first incident, a Lion Air Flight 610 crashed over Indonesia in October 2018. A few months later, in March 2019, Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 crashed in Ethiopia. Combined, the accidents resulted in the deaths of 346 passengers and crew members.
In 2022, the FAA also stopped Boeing from issuing airworthiness certificates for 787 planes due to production quality issues.
In September 2025, the FAA allowed Boeing to start issuing these certificates for some of the 787 and 737 Max planes. The agency and Boeing issued certificates on alternating weeks.
The FAA said earlier this month that over the past eight months, it has observed that the airworthiness certificates issued by the agency and Boeing had “comparable production quality findings.”
The agency decided that Boeing can now handle this responsibility. The FAA will continue inspecting, monitoring, and auditing Boeing’s production system. The oversight will involve “closely observing and assessing” the company’s safety culture and Safety Management System, the agency said.
“The decision follows months of thorough data and safety review demonstrating consistent production quality and reflects the FAA’s confidence in Boeing’s ability to issue airworthiness certificates under FAA oversight,” the FAA said in a July 17 statement.
737 Deliveries, OrdersBoeing generated better-than-expected cash flow in the second quarter on continued strong demand for its aircraft, extending the US manufacturer’s turnaround efforts after years of crises.
The company reported free cash flow of $631 million thanks to higher payments for new aircraft, solidly beating analyst estimates of a $331 million outflow.
Revenue rose 8% to $24.6 billion, and Boeing said it still aims to generate $1 billion to $3 billion in free cash this year.
The planemaker is now building 47 of its 737 Max aircraft each month in the Seattle area, with plans to increase that rate eventually to 63.
Ramping up production is key to repairing its balance sheet and cashing in on an order book worth $715 billion that gained a boost from a slate of commitments at last week’s Farnborough International Airshow.
Boeing announced over 170 firm and preliminary orders at the show and the company’s management said demand remained strong for its aircraft.
“While we’re making progress on our development programs, you’re never done until you’re done,” Chief Executive Officer Kelly Ortberg told employees in a memo alongside the earnings.
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US Home Prices Unexpectedly Jumped In May; Chicago Leading, Vegas Lagging
Having declined for three straight months, US home prices in America's 20 largest cities was expected to rise very marginally (+0.1% MoM) in May (according to the latest data from S&P Cotality Case-Shiller).
Instead, home prices accelerated 0.3% MoM (better than expected), lifting the annual appreciation to +1.63% YoY - the fastest annual price gain since July 2025...
“Monthly price appreciation continues to reflect the seasonal strength often associated with the spring homebuying season,” Rebecca Kaufman, Associate Director of Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indice observed.
“On a non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) basis, the National Index rose 0.6% in May from April, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites each advanced 0.9%."
After adjusting for seasonality, the National Index declined 0.05% month over month, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted modest gains of 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively.
"The gap between the NSA and seasonally adjusted results underscores the extent to which seasonal factors are supporting headline price growth," added Kaufman.
"Even where prices increased on a seasonally adjusted basis, gains remained modest and were negative in real terms.
The geographic dispersion of home price trends continues to persist.
Kaufman noted that while major metropolitan areas in the Northeast and Midwest recorded year-over-year gains exceeding the national average, many metropolitan areas in the West and Sunbelt regions remain under pressure.
“For the third consecutive month, Chicago led all metros with a 6.9% annual increase in May, followed by New York (4.2%) and Cleveland (3.1%).
In contrast, Las Vegas posted the largest decline, falling 1.9% year over year, with Seattle (-1.8%), Denver (-1.8%), and Tampa (-1.6%) also registering notable losses."
Given the lag in Case-Shiller data, mortgage rates could argue that prices should be starting to rise here...
“Affordability remains a significant headwind for the housing market,” Kaufman concluded.
“Thirty-year mortgage rates increased to 6.5% in May, leaving the ultra-low 3% borrowing costs a distant memory. At the same time, stubbornly high inflation rates are keeping both the cost of home financing and the cost of living high for prospective buyers.
“Against this backdrop, housing demand remains constrained, elevated borrowing costs continue to discourage potential homebuyers, and housing values decline in real terms for existing homeowners.”
But the oddly tight coupling with Fed Reserves suggests the path is lower...
Interestingly, for the 12th consecutive month, inflation outpaced national home price appreciation, with CPI running well above the 1.6% annual gain, extending the streak of negative real home price returns.
Is this Trump's 'affordability' plan kicking in? Or just lagged rates finally impacting reality.
Tyler Durden Tue, 07/28/2026 - 09:13