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Key Events This Busy Week: FOMC, PCE, GDP, War On/War Off... And Earnings Galore

Before we look at the week ahead, a quick look at the main event that defines the market this Monday morning: after 13 consecutive nights of US strikes aimed at degrading Iran’s ability to threaten commercial shipping, Washington has refrained from further attacks since late Friday, while Tehran has publicly stated that it has also suspended retaliatory operations. The pause falls short of a formal ceasefire, but both sides are presenting it as an opportunity for diplomacy, with Omani-mediated talks continuing over the weekend focused on navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. US officials, including UN Ambassador Mike Waltz, have stressed that all military options remain on the table and that President Trump is simply giving negotiations more space. However, reports from the New York Times and Axios suggest an active debate within the administration over both the effectiveness and costs of further strikes, with some military officials reportedly arguing that key objectives have largely been achieved. For now, the market is treating the lull as a positive development, although the situation remains highly fluid.

The main market risk remains the energy and shipping front. Traffic through Hormuz remains severely disrupted, while the conflict has broadened into the Red Sea, where Iran-backed Houthi forces reportedly launched missile and drone attacks against Saudi energy infrastructure around Jizan and Yanbu over the weekend, prompting retaliatory Saudi strikes. This raises the prospect of simultaneous disruption to both Gulf and Red Sea export routes. So a welcome pause from the main actors but a fragile one, especially with side battles still ongoing.

However there is no doubt the weekend news is positive and this morning Brent crude prices are around -4.5% lower to $92.42  and 10yr USTs are down -4.5bps. S&P 500 futures are up +0.71% with Nasdaq futures gaining +1.17%.

With that in mind, let's now look ahead, and as more and more of the financial world steps off the ever-turning carousel of market news and disappears towards sunnier shores, a busy global week lies ahead, with central bank decisions, major economic releases and a heavy slate of corporate earnings all competing for investors’ attention. The Federal Reserve meeting concluding on Wednesday remains the standout event, but investors will also hear from the Bank of England (Thursday) and the Bank of Japan (Friday). Meanwhile, key economic releases include US Q2 GDP and June core PCE inflation (both Thursday), Euro Area Q2 GDP and July inflation data (Thursday/Friday), Japan’s Tokyo CPI (Friday) and China’s official PMIs (Friday). Adding to the significance of the week, four of the world’s most influential companies — Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon, which together account for 17% of the S&P 500—will report earnings, with the first two on Wednesday and the latter two a day later.

The headline event of course comes with the FOMC meeting (Wednesday), where DB economists continue to expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged. However, the decision appears unusually finely balanced. The renewed escalation in the Middle East and the sharp rise in energy prices have complicated the inflation outlook, while recent market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved higher as concerns around energy supply disruptions have intensified. Against that backdrop, policymakers face a difficult trade-off between evidence that inflation had been moderating and growing signs that higher oil prices could create a more persistent inflation shock.

It’s rare for a Fed meeting to be this finely balanced so close to the decision. Futures are still assigning a 34% probability to a rate hike this week (-4pps overnight in Asia), a level of uncertainty we seldom see at such a late stage. During the post-Covid hiking cycle, markets did receive a steer via the financial press during the blackout period if the Fed was considering a surprise move. Under the current regime, that appears far less likely.

The Fed decision will sit in the middle of several important data releases. Durable goods orders (today) and the advance goods trade balance (tomorrow) will help shape expectations for the first estimate of Q2 GDP (Thursday). Economists expect annualized GDP growth of 1.9% in Q2. Although this would mark a downgrade from earlier estimates, much of the weakness reflects a drag from net exports linked to strong AI-related imports. Beneath the surface, domestic demand remains considerably healthier. Indeed, DB's economists expect final sales to private domestic purchasers, their preferred measure of underlying demand, to rise by a robust 3.3%, which would be the strongest reading since Q3 2024.

Attention will then turn to inflation. The June personal income and spending report (Thursday) includes the latest reading of core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. DB economists expect core PCE to increase by 0.19% month-on-month, which would leave the annual rate at 3.3% assuming no significant revisions. That will be followed by the Employment Cost Index (Friday), one of the Fed's preferred measures of labor cost pressures. Economists expect the annual growth rate to remain at 3.4%, a level many policymakers would still view as broadly consistent with returning inflation towards target over time.

Alongside the macro data, earnings season moves into a critical phase. Around 35% of the S&P 500's market capitalization is scheduled to report this week. Technology will dominate attention, with Microsoft and Meta releasing results (Wednesday), followed by Apple and Amazon (Thursday). Together, those companies account for 17% of the S&P 500 and will help determine whether investor enthusiasm around AI-related spending remains intact. Elsewhere, notable US earnings releases include Visa and Mastercard in financials, ExxonMobil and Chevron in energy, and Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble in consumer staples.

In Europe, attention will be split between monetary policy and inflation. The Bank of England announces its latest policy decision (Thursday), and economists expect Bank Rate to remain unchanged at 3.75%, accompanied by a 7-2 vote split. 

On the data side, Germany and Spain release flash July CPI figures (Thursday), before France, Italy and the Euro Area publish their inflation readings (Friday). DB's European economists expect Euro Area headline HICP inflation to rise to 3.0% from 2.8%, while core HICP is forecast to edge higher to 2.52% from 2.36%. The Euro Area's preliminary Q2 GDP estimate is also due (Thursday), while Germany's Ifo survey (today) should provide an updated read on business sentiment.

In Asia, the Bank of Japan decision (Friday) will be the key event. Here, economists expect policymakers to keep their current policy settings unchanged. Japan will also release Tokyo CPI, retail sales, industrial production, labor market data and housing starts (all Friday), offering a comprehensive snapshot of the economy at the start of the third quarter. In China, the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs (Friday) will provide the latest evidence on growth momentum. Elsewhere, Australia's June CPI report (Wednesday) will be closely watched for indications about the Reserve Bank's policy path. 

Courtesy of DB, here is a day by day preview of the week ahead.

Monday July 27

• Data: US June durable goods orders, July Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, Japan June PPI services, China June industrial profits, Germany July Ifo survey, Eurozone June M3
• Earnings: LVMH, AstraZeneca, Welltower, Cadence Design Systems, Celestica
• Auctions: US 2-yr Notes ($69bn), 5-yr Notes ($70bn)

Tuesday July 28

• Data: US June advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, July Conference Board consumer confidence index, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, business conditions, Dallas Fed services activity, May FHFA house price index, France July consumer confidence, Q2 total jobseekers
• Earnings: Visa, Coca-Cola, KLA, Seagate Technology, Boeing, Rio Tinto, Safran, Unilever, Corning, Air Liquide, S&P Global, GSK, UPS, Barclays, EssilorLuxottica, Sherwin-Williams, Mondelez, American Tower, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Ecolab, Hilton, NXP Semiconductors, Teradyne, Ford, Orange, Mercedes-Benz, Kering, Centene, Sika
• Auctions: US 7-yr Notes ($44bn)

Wednesday July 29

• Data: UK June net consumer credit, M4, Germany June import price index, Italy May industrial sales, Australia June CPI, Sweden Q2 GDP indicator
• Central banks: Fed’s decision, BoC summary of deliberations 
• Earnings: Microsoft, Meta, SK hynix, Lam Research, Procter & Gamble, ARM, L'Oreal, Hermes, Amphenol, Airbus, Qualcomm, UBS, Hitachi, Advantest, Intesa Sanpaolo, Starbucks, Vertiv, Fortinet, CaixaBank, Equinix, Vinci, Eni, Aon, Standard Chartered, Public Storage, Danone, BASF, Porsche, Humana, GE HealthCare Technologies, Telecom Italia
• Auctions: US 2-yr FRN ($30bn)

Thursday July 30

• Data: US June PCE, personal income, spending, Q2 GDP, initial jobless claims, Japan July consumer confidence index, Germany Q2 GDP, July CPI, France Q2 GDP, private sector payrolls, June consumer spending, Italy Q2 GDP, June unemployment rate, PPI, Eurozone July economic, industrial, services confidence, Q2 GDP, June unemployment rate
• Central banks: BoE’s decision
• Earnings: Apple, Amazon, Samsung Electronics, Mastercard, Shell, Tokyo Electron, Schneider Electric, AB InBev, Rolls-Royce, BBVA, British American Tobacco, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Altria, Stryker, Enel, Sanofi, ING Groep, Lloyds Banking, KKR, BAE, Cigna, Monolithic Power Systems, Regeneron, CRH, Societe Generale, Ferrari, Vale, LSEG, Anglo American, adidas, Leonardo, Reddit, DSM-Firmenich, MTU Aero Engines, Capgemini, Stellantis

Friday July 31

• Data: US Q2 employment cost index, July MNI Chicago PMI, China July official PMIs, UK July Lloyds Business Barometer, Japan July Tokyo CPI, June jobless rate, job-to-applicant ratio, retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, Germany July unemployment claims rate, France July CPI, June PPI, Italy July CPI, consumer confidence index, economic sentiment, manufacturing confidence, Eurozone July CPI, Canada May GDP
• Central banks: BoJ’s decision
• Earnings: ExxonMobil, AbbVie, Chevron, Linde, Eaton, Sony, AXA, Engie, NatWest, Credit Agricole, Holcim, Siemens Healthineers, FANUC, Ares

* * *

Finally, looking at just the US, the key economic data releases this week are the advance release of Q2 GDP and core PCE inflation on Thursday. The July FOMC meeting is on Wednesday. The post-meeting statement will be released at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Chairman Warsh's press conference at 2:30 PM.

Monday, July 27 

• 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, June preliminary (GS +1.0%, consensus +1.8%, last -4.5%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, June preliminary (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.8%, last +1.4%); Core capital goods orders, June preliminary (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.8%, last +1.4%); Core capital goods shipments, June preliminary (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.1%): We estimate that durable goods orders rebounded 1% in the preliminary June report (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted) based on our tracking of commercial aircraft orders. We forecast a 0.6% increase in core capital goods orders—reflecting the increase in the new orders components in manufacturing surveys in June—and a 0.6% increase in core capital goods shipments—reflecting the continued increase in core capital goods orders in recent months.

Tuesday, July 28 

• 08:30 AM Advance goods trade balance, June (GS -$95.0bn, consensus -$100.3bn, last -$105.9bn)
• 08:30 AM Wholesale inventories, June preliminary (last +0.1%)
• 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, May (last -0.1%)
• 09:00 AM S&P Case-Shiller home price index, May (GS +0.1%, consensus flat, last flat) 
• 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, July (GS 92.0, consensus 92.4, last 91.2)

Wednesday, July 29 

• 02:00 PM FOMC statement, July 28-29 meeting: As discussed in our FOMC preview, at its July meeting, the FOMC is likely to keep the funds rate unchanged at 3.50-3.75%. The post-meeting statement might acknowledge the upside risks to inflation posed by renewed geopolitical conflict, and there will likely be at least one dissent in favor of a hike. Market pricing implies that investors see the outcome of the July meeting as unusually uncertain, likely because the FOMC has been split recently, Chairman Warsh’s own position remains unclear, and some of the re-escalation with Iran occurred during the blackout period. But most voters appear unlikely to push for a hike this week after the softer June inflation data, the Fed has historically avoided delivering surprise rate hikes, and we suspect that voters might be especially reluctant to do so at a meeting without a Summary of Economic Projections.

Thursday, July 30 

• 08:30 AM GDP, Q2 advance (GS +2.6%, consensus +2.1%, last +2.1%); Personal consumption, Q2 advance (GS +2.3%, consensus +2.3%, last +0.5%); Core PCE inflation, Q2 advance (GS +3.46%, consensus +3.5%, last +4.4%); We estimate that GDP rose 2.6% annualized in the advance reading for Q2, following a +2.1% annualized increase in Q1. Our forecast reflects a rebound in consumption growth (+2.3%, quarter-over-quarter annualized, vs. +0.5% in Q1) and another quarter of strong business fixed investment growth (+8.8% vs. +10.6% in Q1) driven by strong equipment investment growth (+17.1%). We expect net exports to contribute -1.3pp to Q2 GDP growth. We estimate that domestic final sales rose +2.6% in Q2. We estimate that the core PCE price index increased 3.46% annualized (or 3.35% year-over-year) in Q2.
• 08:30 AM Personal income, June (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.7%); Personal spending, June (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.7%); Core PCE price index, June (GS +0.18%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.3%); Core PCE price index (YoY), June (GS +3.32%, consensus +3.3%, last +3.4%); PCE price index, June (GS -0.07%, consensus -0.1%, last +0.4%); PCE price index (YoY), June (GS +3.70%, consensus +3.7%, last +4.1%): We estimate that personal income and spending increased by 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively, in June. We estimate that the core PCE price index rose 0.18% in June, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +3.32%. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index declined 0.07% in June and increased 3.70% from a year earlier.
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended July 25 (GS 205k, consensus 200k, last 187k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended July 18 (consensus 1,803k, last 1,796k)

Friday, July 31 

• 08:30 AM Employment cost index, Q2 (GS +0.8%, consensus +0.8%, last +0.9%): We estimate the employment cost index rose by 0.8% in Q2 (quarter-over-quarter, seasonally adjusted). Our forecast would result in a 0.2pp decline in the year-on-year rate to 3.2% (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted), which would mark the slowest pace of yearly wage growth since 2021Q2. Our forecast reflects slower ECI benefit growth after start-of-the-year benefit resets likely boosted growth in Q1 and a 0.8% quarterly pace of wage and salary growth—reflecting the signals from the Atlanta Fed’s wage tracker and average hourly earnings.
• 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, July final (GS 54.0, consensus 54.0, last 54.4); University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, July final (GS 3.3%, last 3.3%)

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/27/2026 - 10:35

From July 27 through August 2, Domino's customers will see 50% off all menu-priced pizzas.

Stitches is going back to the well with the Mariners on Monday.

Genevieve strengthened into the first Category 5 hurricane in the Eastern Pacific basin since Hurricane Kristy in 2024 as it rapidly intensified early Monday.

After launching the Hyperboot last year, Nike has partnered up with recovery tool brand Hyperice for another pair of footwear.

A former E.U.-boss who is now a top adviser to the Dutch king and government said on Sunday that right-wing Israelis have “exactly the same reasoning as the Nazis,” prompting local Jews to call him an antisemite who should resign.

Massive Relax

By Benjamin Picton, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

Oil futures are being offered this morning after President Trump on Friday declined to continue strikes on Iran. The ‘pause’ was extended over the weekend and reciprocated by the Iranians, marking the first ‘cease’ of the ceasefire in almost a fortnight.

According to Axios, Donald Trump’s advisors had provided the President with attack plans for the day but CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper reportedly advised against further strikes, arguing that Iran’s ability to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz had already been substantially degraded and that the aerial campaign had reached the limits of its effectiveness.

In a similar vein, the New York Times published a report over the weekend revealing that General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, had cautioned the President that further escalation was possible but that it would dangerously deplete CENTCOM’s stock of interceptor missiles. This would expose the nineteen-odd US bases across the Middle East to even greater damage than they have already sustained, to say nothing of the infrastructure of GCC allies and the strain on the US’s defence priorities in the Pacific and elsewhere. President Trump denied the reports, telling the Wall Street Journal “we have far more [interceptors] than we need.”

In a further hopeful sign, an Omani team of negotiators has reportedly met with counterparts in Tehran to discuss arrangements to re-open the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Baqaei said that the talks had been “useful” and that progress had been made, but that there was no change in the status of the strait at this point. It also remains to be seen whether any agreement reached between Iran and Oman would be accepted by the United States.

Nevertheless, President Trump’s threats of ‘massive attack’ late last week that saw Brent crude surge above $100/bbl, higher bond yields, and equities under pressure has now given way to a massive relax, with Brent below $92/bbl, equity futures pointing higher and sovereign yields lower across the board.

Though it hardly bears noting, at this point it would behove us to caution that the war is not over and that we certainly are not out of the woods from either an energy security or financial markets perspective. 

To illustrate this point, the Wall Street Journal carried a story over the weekend regarding the escalating tit-for-tat between the Saudis and the Houthis that threatens to conflagrate into all-out war. Houthi attacks on Saudi Aramco infrastructure at the critical port of Yanbu (the Red Sea release valve for Saudi oil exports) over the weekend followed a declaration last week that Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea ports would be subject to a blockade that further threatens to starve energy-poor Asia of vital crude oil flows. For now, China is continuing to play the constructive role of balancing item by holding its crude imports well below the usual levels.

Similarly, Israel was reportedly bracing for escalation over the weekend with the Jerusalem Post noting that public bomb shelters had been re-opened in major cities. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that the war would continue until the Iranian regime fell or gave up its nuclear ambitions, again highlighting the likelihood that hostilities will remain ongoing until one is forced to concede on the nuclear issue – and likely concede its regional influence in the process.

A further coalescing of an anti-Iranian bloc is also becoming more evident. Al Jazeera reports that Syrian President Al-Sharaa is seeking a security agreement with Israel that will apparently include several other countries and likely include provisions to stem to flow of weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon. This as Israeli government sources indicate that Israel has dramatically stepped-up its engagement with the GCC since the outbreak of the war, which has perhaps already yielded fruit through the UAE’s decision to leave OPEC and OPEC+. Détente between Gulf states and Israel holds out the prospect of less fragile supply chains in the future, where oil flows West rather than East and Iran loses its leverage over the global economy, but that potential future is riddled with ‘ifs’, and solves none of our near-term problems.

Elsewhere, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi accused Ukraine of doing Israel’s bidding after the former struck an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea, killing at least one crew member. Ukrainian President Zelensky defended the action by stating that Kyiv was targeting vessels involved in military cargo shipments alongside Russian warships, again raising the prospect of two conflicts merging into one.

While geopolitical considerations will doubtless continue to set the tone this week, the Fed, Bank of England and Bank of Japan will all be meeting to set their respective policy rates. None are expected to raise their rate targets this time around but the inflationary impacts of war, and considerations over how persistent those shocks may prove to be, will surely loom large in their deliberations.

This week will also bring Q2 GDP readings for the United States and the Eurozone, along with Q2 PCE for the former and July CPI for the latter.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/27/2026 - 10:20

Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy's wife was shot Sunday night and has been hospitalized.

You just hit the jackpot with Lucky Brand's massive sales on Amazon.

You saw the viral video. But do you know what happened after the cameras stopped rolling? This is “Viral Flashbacks,” where the NY Post rewinds the internet’s most unforgettable clips to uncover the overlooked details, surprising backstories and answers you didn’t get the first time around. A young elephant nicknamed Hercules appeared doomed when 14...

A Popeyes customer visited a location in Michigan and ordered his meal from a kiosk. When paying, he was prompted to tip the machine.

Shootout Erupts At Seattle Festival, Killing 3; Second Gunman On The Run

Seattle police are searching for a second suspect after two gunmen allegedly exchanged fire inside the crowded Bite of Seattle festival beneath the Space Needle, killing three people and wounding four others, including a 2-year-old boy.

BREAKING: 2 killed, 5 injured in shooting at Seattle Center, Washington pic.twitter.com/MPaA3lzO7W

— Rapid Report (@RapidReport2025) July 27, 2026

Assistant Seattle Police Chief Tyrone Davis told reporters late Sunday that investigators believe the suspects were shooting at each other when bystanders were caught in the crossfire.

Three people were killed and four others injured in a shooting at a Seattle food festival.

One suspect has been arrested, and authorities say the incident may have involved a shootout. Two firearms were recovered at the scene.

All 4 victims are in a stable condition.

Police… pic.twitter.com/V6ynVSdmNE

— I Meme Therefore I Am 🇺🇸 (@ImMeme0) July 27, 2026

One suspect surrendered at the scene, while the second remains at large.

"We're still trying to figure this out," Davis said.

Suspect Number One:

BREAKING - SEATTLE SHOOTING 🚨🚨🚨

Two people are dead, 5 others were injured after shooting at a Seattle festival.

Alleged shooter in image below. https://t.co/IkEDa0ehh1 pic.twitter.com/DUs05mBGxV

— TERFs ‘r’ us ©️ (@Terfs_R) July 27, 2026

Davis described the suspect in custody as "a young person" who was being questioned by investigators. He said that individual was the only gunman officers witnessed opening fire. He noted that police did not discharge their weapons during the confrontation.

A Seattle Times reporter at the festival described hearing several loud pops followed by what sounded like rapid gunfire.

"It was just pure chaos," one festival attendee said.

Authorities have not indicated that the shooting is being investigated as terrorism, despite the heightened security following the Islamist attack at Berlin's Pride festival over the weekend. The State Department has also outlined a far-left threat across the West.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/27/2026 - 10:15

A poodle trapped for 29 days in rubble after two earthquakes with a magnitude of more than 7.0 hit Venezuela just 39 seconds apart has remarkably been rescued. 

"I'm doing everything good — I'm a good person. It's just such a struggle right now," the former reality star said as she sobbed.

"I'm doing everything good — I'm a good person. It's just such a struggle right now," the former reality star said as she sobbed.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took off Monday for Washington, where he will meet with President Trump and pay his last respects to the late Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC). The Times of Israel reported that the 76-year-old departed from an Israeli Air Force installation near Beersheba rather than Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion Airport in response...

Weather experts warn extreme rainfall will increase in frequency and intensity over the coming weeks, with much of northern China set to experience 20% to 50% more precipitation than usual.

Ryan Close, the founder of Bartesian, believes younger drinkers are searching for better options amid rising alcohol costs.

Shocking new video captured the moment Ukrainian drones pummeled the warehouses of Russia’s biggest online retailer as Kyiv wages psychological warfare on the Kremlin. The co-founder of Wildberries — often described as the country’s Amazon — confirmed her warehouses had been struck overnight. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky defended the attacks on the retailer’s warehouses accusing...

Deutsche Bank Says Starship Flight 13 Made "Solid Progress" Despite Booster Setback

Following last month's record-setting IPO, SpaceX shares have plunged 50% from their peak and now trade about 15% below the $135 offering price. The post-IPO euphoria has faded, stripping Elon Musk of his trillionaire status - at least for now.

On Friday evening, SpaceX launched Starship on its 13th test flight and successfully deployed 20 next-generation Starlink V3 satellites, making solid progress toward full reusability. The upper-stage spacecraft completed all its primary objectives, despite another landing-burn failure involving the Super Heavy booster.

Deployment of 20 @Starlink V3 satellites complete. Today's test will provide critical data as we prepare to expand our Starlink constellation pic.twitter.com/jWKLwXGlsk

— SpaceX (@SpaceX) July 24, 2026

Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu offered clients a post-mortem on Flight 13, noting that the latest Starship test.

Here is Yu's take:  

Starship Test Flight 13 illustrated solid progress for the program, in our view. For context, this was the second time the upgraded V3 iteration of Starship was flown. Interestingly, the rocket's second stage (Ship) executed all primary objectives whereas the first-stage booster (Super Heavy) performed well for most of the mission until an incomplete engine relight led to a harder splashdown than planned which was also an issue observed on Flight 12. As such, it does appear SpaceX may attempt a catch recovery of the second stage on the next test flight; if successful, this would represent a key milestone given the very high technical difficulty. Additionally, Flight 13 saw the successful deployment of 20 functional Starlink next-gen V3 satellites. Overall, while the initial abort was optically not ideal, we think Starship continues to progress in line with our base-case expectations

What caused the initial abort?

During the first launch attempt on July 16th , Starship reached T-0 and began the engine start sequence. However, 4 of Super Heavy's 33 Raptor engines failed to ignite. Therefore, the flight computer automatically aborted because the launch commit criteria permits a maximum of 2 engines out at liftoff. The company identified the cause to be off-nominal spin response in the liquid oxygen (LOX) turbopumps of 6 engines (4 failed to light plus 2 that displayed off-nominal behavior). The most likely cause of this dynamic was residual moisture that had collected inside the turbopumps from earlier operations. When the extremely cold cryogenic propellant was loaded, that moisture appeared to have frozen. As a result, the ice either slowed the turbopumps dramatically or stopped them from spinning up properly, so those engines never reached the required conditions to ignite. To address this, SpaceX removed and replaced 6 Raptor engines, performed verification testing including spin checks after chill. Then the attempt on July 23rd was postponed due to weather conditions in order to preserve visual coverage of the heat shield tiles during ascent. For background, the heat shield is still being iterated upon and considered one of the higher risk + less mature parts of Starship; therefore, gathering optical data is

What went well?

• Ascent & staging: All 33 booster engines and all 6 Ship engines performed well through their powered phases. Hot-staging was clean - rocket separation where the upper stage ignites its engines while still attached to the lower stage booster, which is also still firing.
• Boostback: First successful completion of the high-thrust portion of the boostback burn with all 33 engines running on V3 boosters. This is the maneuver that reverses first-stage booster's horizontal forward momentum and steers it back toward the ocean.
• Starlink V3 deployment: First flight of functional (not simulator) next-gen V3 satellites. All 20 sats deployed, extended solar arrays and antennas, established RF and laser links, and returned telemetry before burning up on reentry after ~20 minutes.
• In-Space Raptor relight: Successful single-engine restart in space; the longest demonstrated to date. Important capability for future orbital missions and controlled de-orbit.
• Ship reentry & landing: Soft, controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean. Ship 40 remained intact, continued transmitting telemetry and imagery, and provided the first high-quality views of an intact heat shield after a full reentry under higher dynamic pressure; should be ideal for heat-shield data collection.

What needs to improve?

• Booster landing burn: Only a subset of the Super Heavy engines (seemingly 8 out of 13) successfully relit for the landing burn. Hence, there was a hard splashdown rather than a soft, controlled impact. This remains the primary technical open item on the first-stage booster.

Next up: Flight 14

Following Flight 13, Elon Musk posted on X: "Unless we discover problems after mission data review, SpaceX will attempt to catch the ship with the tower on next flight." This would be the first attempt to catch the upper stage using the Mechazilla tower arms and if successful, would represent a major milestone for the program given the much higher technical difficulty level compared with catching the first stage (energy, speed, flip maneuver, margin of error, etc...). We estimate a target window in late August or September. Separately, we note that Starlink V3 satellites can be deployed on Starship even with partial reusability.t a catch recovery of the second stage on the next test flight;

SPCX shares dipped 1.5% in Monday premarket trading, falling to the $113 handle as the stock searches for a floor following its dismal post-IPO performance.

Looking ahead, SpaceX faces its first major post-IPO lockup expiration on Aug. 6, just two days after its scheduled quarterly earnings report. About 911.5 million shares will become eligible for sale, creating a potentially significant supply overhang.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/27/2026 - 10:00