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EU Could Lose 1.3 Million Jobs Due To Energy Price Surge From Iran War
Up to 1.3 million jobs across the EU are at risk because of the ongoing war in the Middle East, European Commissioner for jobs Roxana Mînzatu said on Wednesday.
"Due to the war in the Middle East, up to 1.3 million jobs are at risk, particularly in energy-intensive industries," Mînzatu said at a press conference.
"Let me also underline that increased energy costs will have a particular negative impact on lower-income households in Europe, which is why we recommend that all member states take targeted measures so that they can support vulnerable groups," the Commissioner added.
According to the report, the EU automotive sector could face the biggest layoffs of up to 600,000. Construction, metals, chemicals, transport could lose 56,000 jobs. Some 85,000 jobs in battery projects could be at risk and 58,852 jobs in solar manufacturing. Another 4,500 jobs could go in the steel sector because of low-carbon measures.
In a stagflationary double whammy, Low-income households could spend an additional 1.4% of income on transport fuel.
As Euronews reports, the warning came during the presentation of the 2026 Spring Semester Package, a bi-annual publication by the EU executive that provides guidance to the 27 member states on the bloc's economic priorities.
The conflict has already had tangible effects on the European economy, with energy prices surging as a result. According to the latest European economic forecasts published in May, the war has slowed European growth while pushing inflation higher. Yesterday we learned that Euro Area inflation topped 3% for the first time since 2023, cementing an ECB rate hike next week.
Economic data on growth and inflation vary sharply across the EU, a disparity the Commission considers a threat to competitiveness.
Key priorities
The package dedicates significant space to employment, focusing on the promotion of quality jobs and how EU countries can tackle persistent shortages of skilled workers in strategically important sectors.
"Improving educational outcomes and better aligning people's skills with labor market needs remain key priorities, also to address labour and skills shortages which are particularly acute in strategic sectors such as cybersecurity, quantum, artificial intelligence and semiconductors," the Semester Package states.
At the press conference, Mînzatu said that 77% of European companies report that skill shortages remain a significant barrier to investment. She identified poor working conditions as the main driver of those shortages.
"We cannot attract talent, we cannot reduce shortages, we cannot improve people's earnings without making sure we have good working conditions," the Commissioner said.
Since the beginning of this mandate, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has made competitiveness one of the Commission's highest priorities as geopolitical uncertainties mount.
The latest Semester Package reflects this, focusing on how Europe can strengthen its position on the global stage.
In particular, the bloc wants to reduce economic barriers in the single market, create a more business-friendly environment for companies and capital, and minimise strategic dependencies – especially on China and the US.
To that end, the Commission is pushing member states towards a more robust industrial policy, greater investment in capital markets, and a simplification agenda that would, among other things, reduce administrative burdens both in the private and public sector.
In parallel, the Commission is working to accelerate economic reforms at the EU level, though progress relies heavily on the willingness of member states to act – a longstanding coordination challenge.
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Iran To Deepen Ties With 'Principal Strategic Partner' China: Ghalibaf
Iranian Parliament Speaker and special representative for China affairs, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, held the first joint meeting with key economic officials on Wednesday to align Tehran's economic strategy toward Beijing.
The session in Tehran included the ministers of economy, oil, and industry, alongside the central bank governor and the head of the Plan and Budget Organization.
The assembly focused on establishing a unified government approach to elevate bilateral relations and coordinate the administration's economic priorities. During the proceedings, officials evaluated China’s economic conduct amid the US-Israeli war on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to the US and Israel.
Participants agreed to submit formal proposals to Ghalibaf to resolve outstanding challenges and deepen cooperation.
This coordination effort supports a developing strategy to position China as Iran’s “principal strategic partner” while expanding collaboration on regional and international issues.
Roughly 30 China-linked vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz in a single day in mid-May under the supervision of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy.
These transits follow a “management protocol” established after Iran restricted the waterway to US and Israeli-linked vessels in February.
While the strait remains largely closed, passage is permitted for commercial ships that comply with Iranian naval procedures and utilize designated corridors
In parallel, since the 'illegal' US blockade on Iranian ports was implemented in April, Iran has tripled its rail exports of oil and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) to China in an effort to bypass the economic stranglehold.
Iran's special representative for China affairs @mb_ghalibaf held a joint meeting with the ministers of economy and oil, the Governor of the Central Bank of Iran (CBI), the head of the Plan and Budget Organization, and the Minister of Industry, Mine, and Trade. pic.twitter.com/0qHZlb2zIm
— IRNA News Agency ☫ (@IrnaEnglish) June 3, 2026Freight trains on the 10,400-kilometer corridor now depart every three to four days, a significant increase from the previous weekly schedule, and halve traditional sea transit times to roughly 15 days.
Despite this, rail capacity remains a modest alternative to maritime shipping; one train carries 60,000 to 70,000 barrels of oil, while large tankers can transport upwards of 2 million barrels.
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